Categories
Podcast episode

Navigating Volatile Crypto Markets & Avoiding Scams w/ Ben Simpson, Collective Shift – EP249

Ben Simpson, founder of Collective Shift, a crypto education and research company, shares valuable insights into the volatile world of cryptocurrency. Because the crypto field is filled with misinformation and scams, Ben emphasises the need for comprehensive education and reliable research before making investment decisions. He emphasises the importance of understanding the risks and potential of Bitcoin and other digital assets. He also discusses the regulatory landscape in Australia and the disruptive potential of decentralised finance (DeFi). NB This podcast episode contains general information only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please email us at contact@economicsexplored.com  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Apple Podcast and Spotify.

What’s covered in EP249

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • Crypto market volatility and how to navigate it. (1:40)
  • Bitcoin as a digital gold with potential for long-term growth. (6:54)
  • Crypto regulation, tax treatment, and education. (12:21)
  • Investing in cryptocurrency, avoiding scams, and seeking professional help. (16:44)
  • Bitcoin ETFs and investment options in Australia. (21:06)
  • Crypto market volatility, correlation with the stock market, and investment strategies. (25:20)
  • Crypto investing and decentralised finance with Ben Simpson. (31:03)

Takeaways

  1. Understanding Crypto Volatility: Cryptocurrency markets, especially Bitcoin, are highly volatile. Investors must be prepared for significant price swings and understand the underlying factors driving these fluctuations.
  2. Importance of Education: The crypto space is filled with misinformation and scams. Ben emphasises the need for comprehensive education and reliable research before making investment decisions.
  3. Regulatory Landscape: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, particularly in Australia, is still evolving. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are generally considered safe from a regulatory standpoint, many other cryptocurrencies could face challenges.
  4. Decentralised Finance (DeFi): DeFi has the potential to disrupt traditional banking by offering financial services without intermediaries. This space is growing and may offer exciting opportunities for investors.
  5. Safe Investing Strategies: Ben advises new investors to start with Bitcoin and be cautious of lesser-known cryptocurrencies, many of which may lack real value and be risky investments.

Links relevant to the conversation

Collective Shift: https://collectiveshift.io/ 

Ben’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@BenCollectiveShift 

Ben and Bergs podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5xir3V8fvtmHTAQy2D9dQd 

Transcript: Navigating Volatile Crypto Markets & Avoiding Scams w/ Ben Simpson, Collective Shift – EP249

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:00

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host, Gene, Tunny, I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode. Please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello. Thanks for tuning in to the show. In this episode, we sit down with Ben Simpson, the founder of collective shift, a leading crypto education and research company in Australia, Ben shares his wealth of experience in navigating the volatile and often chaotic world of cryptocurrency investing. One of the key takeaways from our conversation is the importance of understanding the inherent volatility of the crypto market. Ben discusses the volatility of crypto markets, explaining why assets like Bitcoin can see dramatic price swings. He also touches on the regulatory landscape in Australia and the importance of having clear guidelines to protect investors. Ben emphasizes the need for comprehensive education and guidance as the crypto space is rife with misinformation and scams that can easily trap unwary investors. Finally, Ben shares his insights on the disruptive potential of decentralized finance. Defi, righto, let’s get into the episode. I hope you enjoy it. Ben Simpson from collective shift, welcome to the program.

Ben Simpson  01:39

Thanks so much, so much for having me. It’s good to be here.

Gene Tunny  01:41

Yes, it’s excellent. Ben, so you’ve been doing some fascinating things with collective shift. Could you tell us a bit about which you’re the founder of? Could you tell us a bit about collective shift, please? What is it that you’re that you’re offering?

Ben Simpson  01:55

Yes, I’ve been full time investing into the crypto space for seven or eight years, and it’s a very messy, chaotic industry, lot of misinformation, lot of bad people in the space. It’s just very difficult to get clarity on what’s going on actually when you invest in crypto. So when I first started out, I personally didn’t really know what what was going on. Took me a lot of time to figure out blockchain and Bitcoin and Ethereum and just all these terminologies and what it all meant. And I started working with someone in the education space to help people with crypto and eventually, I started my own thing about four years ago. And you know what we built now is we’re the largest independent education and research company in Australia. We have over 1000 paying clients around the world that pay us for crypto investment research and sort of advice. And then also we provide research and content to the crypto exchanges here in Australia. So those coin spot, Swift X, those are buy and sell cryptocurrency for like for retail customers, we provide them with some of their content research as well. So yeah, we’ve got a team about 10 full time now here in Australia. And yeah, we’ve been around for about four years. And my my mission is just to help people try and navigate their way through crypto the right way. Because I know I’ve been burned in the past in a space it’s very easy to lose money and be led down the wrong path. So we’re trying to just help people the right way, right?

Gene Tunny  03:19

Okay, and you mentioned that you were concerned about some of the misinformation in the in crypto, what, what type of things we we are you thinking of? It’s just

Ben Simpson  03:29

a lot. So in cryptocurrency, there’s 1000s and 1000s of different cryptocurrencies right now. So like, if you think about the stock market, there’s basically that equivalent in crypto, but a an endless amount of cryptocurrency projects you could buy, and my opinion is 95 to 98% of them are worthless, like they’re just built on, you know, community and, you know, FOMO, and you know, they don’t have a lot of underlying real value. And a lot of people get sucked into these projects, buying them with the hope of making a lot of money because they provide these crazy marketing guarantees and returns and all these sorts of things that people get sucked into and ultimately lose money. So that’s really where we’re trying to help guide people, from an education standpoint, where to invest. And then ultimately, cryptocurrency is extremely volatile, and it can be hard for someone to stomach the risk that comes along with crypto, Bitcoin on its journey from, you know, a few $100 to today, 55, 60,000 US dollars has gone up and down hundreds of times, you know, more than 10% and sometimes it goes down 4050, 60% in a period of days or weeks, which can be very concerning for a lot of people, because you don’t get that in the stock market right. If two or 3% in a day is kind of big in crypto, you could see 1020, 30% moves in a day. So we try and just help people understand why that happens, how to have the mindset and understanding of where the market’s going and not panic and and ultimately, try and, you know, not lose money. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  05:00

gotcha. Okay, there’s a few things I wouldn’t mind following up there. Ben, so, I mean, there’s the issue of, I mean, why does this happen? Why is crypto subject to such wild swings? Why is it so volatile? For one, could we start there, please? Yeah, let’s

Ben Simpson  05:18

start there. So one common thing that some people don’t know is that cryptocurrency trades 24/7 right when the stock market opened, has opened, open and closed times at Monday to Friday, cryptocurrency trades 24/7 and what we saw, you know, in the last few days in Japan, you know, Japan saw one of his worst days since the 1980s in the stock market. Recently, I think it dropped seven or 10% in a day, they hold to trading. You they literally just withdrew the sell button. You can’t sell anymore, right? In cryptocurrency, that that’s not, that’s not a thing. You can’t just hold trading in crypto, right? This is a free market. There’s no one, there’s no intermediary to stop what you’re doing. So it’s a free market. And ultimately, people you know, have emotions they fear, and if they’re going to sell, they’re going to sell. And in cryptocurrency, because the market caps of these projects are relatively small, you get these liquidation events, and what happens is basically these cascading effects of traders get liquidated, whales get liquidated, retail investors then panic, and then you get these huge fluctuations. So there’s a lot of different variables, but ultimately, it’s a free market. No one’s manipulating it from a, you know, intermediary perspective, and if people are scared, they’re going to sell. And it happens pretty quickly, right?

Gene Tunny  06:27

Okay, now, if you’re getting into this market, I mean, if you’re interested in crypto, do you, do you provide some guiding principles, or do you identify red flags. Can you tell us a bit about what new investors should be looking out for?

Ben Simpson  06:45

Yeah, so if I have a new investor that comes to me and wants to figure out how to create an investment portfolio, I really, I really try and recommend that they start off with just Bitcoin. It’s really important to understand that Bitcoin is the biggest, most leading cryptocurrency. It’s the most well known. Then there’s 1000s of other cryptocurrencies after that, right? So it’s important to differentiate Bitcoin from cryptocurrency, because Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, but bitcoin is its own separate thing, and that’s the way I look at it. So I usually start off by just looking at Bitcoin, and Bitcoin, ultimately, for me, should, or for others, should be looked at as a hedge against, you know, your overall investment portfolio, right? It’s not correlated to stocks or the property market or bonds. It’s ultimately a completely separate asset that is in its own area. And I would probably think even only 1% of your entire net wealth into Bitcoin, I think is a pretty good good idea, just in terms of its risk to reward ratio. So the reward being potentially, if it pulls off what it’s trying to achieve. In terms of the global monetary asset, the price returns are quite or the projections are quite large, where the risk is quite minimal, in a sense of it’s been around for 10 or 12 years. It’s now got its own ETF, which was the one of the largest ETF launches in history. It’s owned by a lot of NASDAQ listed companies. You know, it’s owned by governments on their balance sheet. So, like, the risk of Bitcoin now is far, far, far less than what it has been in the past and where we think it could go. I think everyone should consider it in terms of just, even only a little

Gene Tunny  08:21

bit. Right? Okay, so in terms of where you think it can go. I mean, you, are you thinking Bitcoin to a million? I think was that? Was that Kathy Wood, did she have that prediction? I mean, is that? Is that serious or credible?

Ben Simpson  08:35

I mean, look, you know, who knows is really the answer gene like, you know, who knows where this could go? The biggest thing that I think is the most important thing to understand with Bitcoin is it’s a limited supply asset. There’s only 21 million Bitcoin that ever be created. And the supply and demand economics, as we’ve seen recently, there’s more demand for Bitcoin that there is supply, right? And just basic supply and demand economics is showing us that if you get a lot of people wanting an asset, and there’s very few, there’s very few of it, you know, the price, you know, goes up over time. Do I think you get to a million dollars? I do think you can get there at some stage. Maybe, you know, it’s probably gonna take 1020, 30 years to get there. But for me, Bitcoin compound has been compounding at 60% year over year for the last 10 years. It’s up 75% of the last 12 months. It’s one of the best performing assets on the planet. For me, I think it’s one of the best investments you can own.

Gene Tunny  09:29

Right? Okay, and what’s your what’s your theory or like, Why do you think that there is this underlying value? Because there is a lot of skepticism about cryptocurrency, particularly from economists, and there’s all sorts of concerns about regulatory risk. I mean, you pointed to the fact that, okay, it’s been held. You know, certainly people are investing in it at the moment. But, yeah, I just wonder what’s the story regarding the actual. Use case for it? Is there a use case outside of some illegal transactions? Yeah.

Ben Simpson  10:05

And I think, I think the hardest thing for most people to wrap their head around is that, you know, you can’t touch it, you can’t feel it, you can’t smell it like it’s a completely digital asset, and it doesn’t have free cash flow, right? Warren Buffett hates it. He calls a rat poison square, right? There’s a lot of people that don’t like it, because it’s not, not similar to what’s been around in previous times. If we look at a country like, you know, Venezuela, right? Or, you know Mexico, some of these places, not, maybe not Mexico, but Venezuela, right? We look at some of these places where they’re fiat currency, Argentina, sorry, who was I was looking for their local local currency has inflated so much that it’s basically worthless, right? It just continues to inflate. Because of the government has printed more and more money. So holding something that isn’t controlled by government, something that is inherently deflationary, in a sense that it doesn’t increase its supply. In fact, the circulating supply slows down. People are looking at Bitcoin now as a new digital gold, you know, not to say it’s going to replace gold. Gold is, you know, one of the safest assets on the planet, but this is a new version of gold. I use Bitcoin to pay my employees. If I go and try and pay my overseas staff with my bank account, it gets shut down. Many phone calls from their frauds team. They want to know where it’s going, why it’s going. They take huge conversion rate fees. It takes two weeks to arrive. It’s horrendous. Where I can send bitcoin instantly to anyone in the world with no middleman, and they can receive it, you know, within seconds. And that’s being utilized more and more, from from from businesses in different countries, as well, from a payments level. But ultimately, the the use case for me is it’s a digital gold. It’s an asset that, you know, continues to perform, you know, over time. And I think the best way to look at it is, is that digital gold, you know, analogy, and we’re seeing, you know, companies like micro strategy and NASDAQ, listed company, you know, holding hundreds of 1000s of Bitcoin now in the balance sheet, because if you continue to hold cash, just the the purchasing power of your dollar is doing to devalue. Like, where do you park your cash? What? What asset can you hold that’s going to be a hedge against inflation? You know, a gold has an outbeat. Hasn’t out beaten inflation in the last five years. Like, where do you put your money? And Bitcoin starting to be seen as something that you can park your capital in,

Gene Tunny  12:19

right? Okay. And what do you see is that, are there regulatory risks with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? Central banks are looking at CBDCs, the central bank digital currencies. Is there a risk that there could be a regulatory crackdown on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? Yeah, I

Ben Simpson  12:41

definitely think there’s a risk for some cryptocurrencies. You know, again, important to differentiate Bitcoin different to other cryptocurrencies. The SEC in the US has clearly defined Bitcoin as a commodity, and now they have their own Bitcoin spot ETF, now the Ethereum spot ETF. So the government has approved, and the SEC has approved these financial instruments to buy bitcoin and Ethereum in the US and Australia tends to follow. There’s a Bitcoin ETF in Australia, so it’s from a regulatory framework. Bitcoin and Ethereum really is in a safe category now, but there is a lot of other crypto assets that could, could potentially look like securities, and that sort of plays a bit into some of these exchanges not being able to sell it. But no, the direction we’re going in and what, what we’re seeing now from the US and Australia is that, you know, even Donald Trump, right? Donald Trump, the other day, spoke at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, and wants us to be the hub of crypto. He wants the US to be the center of, you know, cryptocurrency sort of development in the world. So, yeah, I think it’s actually moving towards politically pandering or not politically a good thing for these, these candidates, to be pro crypto, because the reality is, a lot of people own it,

Gene Tunny  13:58

right? Okay, and what’s, what’s the regulatory environment like here in Australia, been seeing some of Senator Andrew Bragg’s commentary, and like he he’s been grilling Treasury public servants at estimates hearings, and it looks like that they’ve been rather slow in in setting up a regulatory environment, would you know what the issues are there? I mean, is what needs to happen with regulation in Australia for crypto? Yeah, I

Ben Simpson  14:29

think that then we’re actually asking for more regulation. Really like, because there’s really not much clarity. Like, and as an educator and someone that wants to help consumers, there is very little regulation. It’s very much in a gray area. You go and talk to lawyers and they give they give you a roundabout answer, but you know, I think the reality is gene that this asset class is so new and so few people truly understand it, that the existing regulation of securities and stocks and assets just doesn’t fit well with crypto, because it’s so unique and it’s so different. But. Many loopholes and so many unknowns and variables. I know there was a paper drawn up about recommendations recently, but, you know, these things move relatively slowly, and it goes through a lot of hands, so I’d love more regulatory clarity. You know, we saw some pretty poor things that happened in the US over the last few years, like FTX, you know, Celsius, these crypto exchanges that were doing nefarious things, you know, ultimately, that had nothing to do with the underlying asset. That wasn’t bitcoins fault, that was people running these exchanges that wanted to defraud customers. That was their fault. And if we had better regulation and overview, perhaps that wouldn’t have happened. So we’re welcoming that. It’s just yeah, these things take time with the politics and government. Unfortunately, yeah. And

Gene Tunny  15:41

what does it mean for the the tax treatment of crypto? So if you make a gain or a profit on your or a capital gain on your crypto, you’re liable for for tax for that. Are you?

Ben Simpson  15:51

Yeah, yeah, just like normal capital gains, like, if you sell Telstra shares for BHB shares, it’s a taxable event. Um, you pay your capital gains. You know, some investors may think that they can get away with it, but reality is, cryptocurrencies are built on a blockchain, and a blockchain is an immutable ledger that anyone can see, yeah, and we’ve seen the ATO now develop software to actually go and track these, these accounts that aren’t paying their tax. All the Australian exchanges have to report on all their users, so, you know, they’re having a real crackdown on that. And as they should, people thinking they get away with it is not, it’s not the right way to think about it. You know, people are paying their capital gains. And, yeah, there’s, there’s a lot of oversight now in that tax space as well. So, yeah, very much similar to the stock stocks. How would you how you pay your tax?

Gene Tunny  16:36

Yeah, gotcha. Okay, interesting with the just going back to the crypto education. I mean, I think that’s so important. Because the concern I have is that the, you know, everyone thinks crypto is a the next big thing. And, I mean, you know, possibly it is and yet, but you have a lot of dumb money go in, and you’ve got or a lot of people who probably shouldn’t be putting all their hard earned savings into into a speculative asset. I mean, maybe, I mean, you’re steering people toward the more established ones, but they’re also, you know, there are 1000s of other crypto currencies out there. So, yeah, if you did, if you did come across a proposal or a new what is it? Is it an ICR initial coin offering? Or, if you’re looking at investing in crypto, what are the sort of things that you should be that that would be a red flag that would set off alarm bells that, because I know I’ve heard this term rug pull. How would you how would you know if you could be a victim of that look?

Ben Simpson  17:40

Unfortunately, it’s very common in the cryptocurrency space. You know, I tend to direct people in only investing into older coins that have been around for a little while, like these. ICOs, initial coin offerings were a big thing back in the day, and unfortunately, a lot of people get sucked into these because they promise return, like anything that promises returns, guarantees percentage returns over a period of time. Has crazy lock up periods where you have to basically give your cryptocurrency and lock it up for a period of time to earn rewards, anything that pays you to bring on other people, like a Ponzi scheme, anything that has crazy marketing on social media. None of these good projects do any of that. And ultimately, a lot of those are probably scams, if any of the projects you’ve invested in does that. So ultimately, focus in the top assets. You know, the top 10, top 20, Bitcoin, Ethereum. Solana, start there before working your way down. The further down the market capitalist you go, the more risky the investments are. And unless you really tapped in to know what you’re doing, it can be very difficult to navigate. You know those investments and rug pulls are common the further you go down. Rug pulls are basically, you know, if you think of standing on a rug and someone pulls a rug underneath you, that’s just really when the founder or the owner, or there’s a there’s a hack of the project, and you lose all your money. So you really do need to be careful.

Gene Tunny  18:56

Gotcha. So if someone comes to you, so would they go to the collective shift side? And then there’s a online course you can do,

Ben Simpson  19:04

yeah. So we there’s basically two tiers. So one is, we just have our platform where you sign up, you log in, you can see all of our token ratings. So we do, you know, token things like morning staff for crypto, that’s what we’re trying to build, token ratings research community. We do live group sessions. They can jump on a live session with me, and I go through the market and how I’m investing. And then we have a higher tier. For those that are a bit more have a bit more capital at play. Usually they’re wanting to invest a quarter of a million plus, or they already have that invest in crypto. That’s where you can work one on one with me. We have private events. We do online sessions, you know, private sort of WhatsApp group, where we can kind of help you out and deliver you more support. And that’s really where we have our team of analysts by your side to give you independent information. And that’s really what people pay us for, because you can go online, you can listen to YouTubers, you can try and figure it all out yourself, but it’s going to take you a heap of time. You won’t know who to trust. Most likely, the person is giving you an information doesn’t really know what they’re talking about, and you can lose a lot of money if you’re not sure what you’re doing. So that’s really where we can come and help.

Gene Tunny  20:10

Yeah. So what takes a heap of time doing the research or getting set up or getting the wallet? I mean, what? What actually takes the time probably

Ben Simpson  20:20

initially, just even researching the space, what coins to buy, when to buy, when to sell, how to store it? Where do you store it? How do you you know? How do you not stuff it up? What are the scams look like this like? As you go further down the rabbit hole, there just becomes this infinite amount of information, and you Google crypto, and you just get a million different opinions and a million different people saying different things. And I think really where the time gets sucked in is the information overload. Did you start reading it like this? Says something? This is something else. Everyone has their own opinions, which right or wrong is, Can? Can just send you down a path of confusion? Yeah, and that’s why we work with a lot of people that come to me and go, Ben, I’ve done this, or I made this mistake. Or, you know, I just need help. I don’t know what to do. Can you help me? That’s kind of where we sort of step in. And can guide you. Okay?

Gene Tunny  21:06

And so this, what would this be? Why a Bitcoin ETF is a is an attractive proposition relative to actually owning Bitcoin yourself. Or,

Ben Simpson  21:17

yeah,

Gene Tunny  21:18

am I thinking, how is that right or yeah,

Ben Simpson  21:21

there’s your two options, right? If you want to go, Yeah, Ben, I want to go buy bitcoin tomorrow. What are my options? Well, number one is, you go, you sign up to a cryptocurrency exchange, you buy bitcoin, so you deposit Australian dollars, you buy bitcoin, and then you need to store it somewhere. You either store it with the cryptocurrency Exchange, or you get a wallet and you store it yourself, right? Yeah, that’s what I do. That’s what I recommend most people do. But that is, ultimately, you have to have some sort of knowledge, right? The other option is, you go to your brokerage account and you go and buy a Bitcoin ETF, and that’s what’s been so big in the US recently. You know, there’s a about 9% of the entire Bitcoin supply is now owned by ETFs. And basically the ETF is where you buy a share and that sits in your portfolio, and then the ETF provider is buying that Bitcoin and storing it on your behalf. So you have to worry about all the storage and custody. Yeah, gotcha.

Gene Tunny  22:13

And did you say there was a there’s a Bitcoin ETF here in Australia,

Ben Simpson  22:17

there is, there is, there’s a couple. I’m not actually sure what the ticker is. I’ll have to maybe send that to you later. Gene, that’s okay, just interested, yeah, but there is one launch recently in Australia. I think it might be ebtc. I don’t know. I have to double check, but, yeah, mono, actually, monochrome. Ibtc, monochrome is one of the first Bitcoin ETF, so you should be able to get that in your brokerage account. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  22:44

but the people you’re who come to you, it sounds like you’re helping them get set up on their own. And it sounds like you’ve got, I mean, you’ve got people who are really, you know, keen to learn, keen to keen to get into crypto. What’s the demographic? I mean, can you Yeah, for

Ben Simpson  23:03

sure, it’s really two types of customers we work with. One is, you know, 50 to 65 that maybe are investing in their SMSF, or they have a large amount of funds that they’ve invested into crypto, and they really want to, wanting to set themselves up for retirement. They need some help just figuring out how to do it. And the other demographic is, you know, 3540 years old, have have a have a family, have a business, have large amounts of investments elsewhere, and they might have 500,000 a million dollars. You know, we’ve got guys right up to 25 million in crypto that have their own businesses and stuff going on, and they need our help and our research and our frameworks to help guide them through the market. Think about exit strategy, risk profile, storage, you know, asset selection, you know, it’s like in it’s your own investment. You know, family office for some people, so they need some independent guidance to help Sure. You know, they don’t stuff it up,

Gene Tunny  24:01

right? And are you, as part of that? Are you providing advice on other investments, on their whole investment portfolio?

Ben Simpson  24:10

No, no, just, just, just cryptocurrency. So we give, we give sort of general frameworks and insights and research and data to help them make they still need to make the decision themselves. You know, we’re again, back to the regulatory piece. You know, we’re going to be first in line to get a cryptocurrency financial license when we can that. That doesn’t exist right now, because crypto isn’t, it isn’t seen as a financial product in Australia. You know, well, commodities aren’t. So, you know, once that becomes available, you know, we’re going to be first in line to get that, but for now, we just give general sort of information, and then people make up their mind from

Gene Tunny  24:46

there. Okay, and so do you have the what is it? The Australian Financial Services licensed, AFSL,

Ben Simpson  24:54

yeah, yeah, that’s what. I mean, we actually can’t get one for crypto, right? Okay, yeah, because it doesn’t fall. Like, cryptocurrencies don’t fall under that framework. So we had a, we had a meeting with, you know, ASIC, a private ruling, you know, while back, and it was just, unfortunately, they can’t provide one, because cryptocurrencies don’t fall under that and that’s where that regulatory discussion is going on. At some stage it should fall under something, yeah, and they will be able to be able to go and get that, yeah,

Gene Tunny  25:20

yeah. Well, it just looks like a real dereliction of duty on the part of our regulators, because you’ve got a lot of people interested in it and investing a lot of money, it sounds like it in it. I mean, if you’ve got people with what was it? 25 million in crypto? Yeah,

Ben Simpson  25:38

wow. And, and, and we, you know, from our business model, Gene, like we, we’re purely independent, right? We charge subscription fees for our information, and that’s it, right? You’ve got others that are charging fees, taking commission on investments, selling investments, getting paid to promote tokens. Like it is the Wild West, what some of these people are doing, right? And that’s completely just unregulated. People just go and do what they want. We don’t do any of that because we’re genuinely trying to help people. But yeah, we’re wanting this to come to the space so people can, you know, be, be more trusting in the information that’s out there? Yeah,

Gene Tunny  26:14

yeah, absolutely. I think that’s, that’s a good, a good strategy. And, yeah, I mean, it sounds like you need some type of license like that. That’d be good if they can develop that, and then, particularly if advice can be provided to people about how this sits within the whole portfolio and what other investment opportunities there are out there for people. Yeah, very good. I’d like to go on before we wrap up, just to you know what’s happened. What’s the state of the market recently? So you mentioned, well, there’s no, I mean, you said there’s no correlation between crypto and other assets. I’d like to talk about that and just understand what you mean there. I mean, because big there was a bit of a sell off, wasn’t there when we had the recent sell off in, you know, the S, P and all that, yep. So, like, how do you think about that? That correlation,

Ben Simpson  27:11

declare, to clarify the price is, is definitely still correlated right now, like, in terms of, like, when the stock market sell offs. You know, there’s definitely correlation with Bitcoin. To clarify in terms of, like, where I think it’ll be in five or 10 years time, I definitely see Bitcoin as a as not being correlated with the stock market. But yeah, what we saw over the last few days with, you know, the recession fears, and then Japan selling off and you know that that that carry trade idea that’s been going on, where people are borrowing money in Japan for zero interest, and, you know, buying assets in the in in in the States, and then Japan increase the interest rates, and all of a sudden everyone gets sort of margin called that found its way into crypto. And then, you know, one of the, one of the fascinating things gene is what happened on the weekend was that if you’ve got a margin call on a weekend where you can’t go and just withdraw hundreds of 1000s of dollars from your account. It takes 123, days from your banking. Yeah, you know, just position, right? Crypto is liquid. 24/7, so people need money, and they’ve got liquidity in crypto. You can go, just pull that out tomorrow, right? You need ten million tomorrow. You can get that within a second, right? If you have those that those assets, if you want to withdraw 10 million out of your brokerage account, oh my goodness, right, you gotta call someone out. They’re going to want to know where it’s going. Why is, why are you doing that? It’s going to take multiple days to to get approval. So what we saw was, people need liquidity. They go to crypto. Crypto sold off. There’s a lot of margin calls. Then what happens is the long, the long, traders in crypto got liquidated. The price just dumped. And then that was on our Monday, and by Tuesday, Japan had sort of in the futures market had corrected. Looks like they’re starting to get the money printers going again. And then crypto sort of bounced. I think bitcoins up 10 or 12% Ethereum is up six or 7% you know, overnight. So it was one of those real technical sell off events. Fundamentally, you know, nothing, nothing wrong with the asset class. But that’s, that’s what I mean with the volatility of crypto, things can happen. You know, you’re down 20% one day and up 10% the next day. Like, it’s pretty, pretty wild.

Gene Tunny  29:15

Yeah, yeah. So you’ve got to be prepared for that, and that’s part of what your your education is. So it’s the Yeah. I should note, we’re recording this on the seventh of August in Australia. And yeah, I’m always loath to talk. I’m always reluctant to talk too much about, you know, what’s happening in the market at the moment, because things can, things can change, and by the time you put about the podcast episode out, things can be completely different. But I thought I’d ask you about that. Yeah, that sounds like, it sounds like you’ve got a good, little, good little business there, and you’re, you’re helping people, because there’s certainly a an interest in in crypto, and I think you’re, it sounds like you’re coming from the you. Right place. Is there anything else? I mean, what sort of what are you focused on at the moment in the crypto market? What, what exciting things are you seeing? Ben,

Ben Simpson  30:10

yeah, that’s good question. Gene, I mean, I primarily focus on just building my portfolio of those, those more blue, blue chip, quote, unquote, Bluetooth assets, Bitcoin, Ethereum. I’m a very big believer in decentralized finance, or Defy. You know the idea where you can take out loans, earn interest on your money without the need of a bank, and then you can buy those underlying tokens that that that support that project, and you can earn the fees and interest from the lenders and the people putting up their capital. So defi is a big place for me. I’m pretty heavily invested into that. A lot of that defi activity is built on Ethereum. I’m a very big believer in Ethereum. And then you’ve got other, you know, different things going on, whether it be web three, gaming, whether it be, you know, different blockchains. There’s a lot going on in the crypto space. Yeah, sometimes I think that, you know, and I talk about this a lot, there’s, there’s a million solutions fighting for about five problems that you know, that actually need to be sold. And I think for a lot of people, you know that follow my content online, it’s a bit of a breath of fresh air, because you listen to a lot of crypto people, and it’s just, you it’s just, it’s up only right? It’s never going down. Everything’s amazing. Well, reality is it’s not. And there’s a lot of crap in the crypto space, and I’m really pretty honest about that and calling it out. So yeah, lots going on. But for me, Bitcoin is just Bitcoin and property. For me, the two assets that really I think are going to be the best performers over the next few

Gene Tunny  31:44

years. You’re talking in Australia or Yeah, but I mean Bitcoin internationally. Oh, sorry,

Ben Simpson  31:49

yeah, Australia for property and then Bitcoin internationally. Yeah, gotcha.

Gene Tunny  31:53

Okay. So where can people follow you? Is the best place to follow you? On YouTube?

Ben Simpson  32:00

Yeah, YouTube, if you like video content, just go to Ben Simpson on YouTube. If you’re on Instagram, I put up in like, shorter form content. I put content up on Instagram. I always have my own crypto podcast called called Ben and Berg’s. If you like podcast, yeah. And then we also do a newsletter as well. So if you like email, you can head over to collective shift. There’s a newsletter button at the top, and we send, like, a weekly, weekly digest of what’s going on. So depending on the medium I’m pretty much on all them, I better

Gene Tunny  32:25

make sure I’ve subscribed to that. I don’t think I have. Sorry about that. That’s it. That sounds like the sort of sort of thing I should subscribe to. And was it Ben and Berg? Did you say Ben and

Ben Simpson  32:35

Berg’s? Yeah, B, E, R, G, s, okay. So we do two episodes a week on crypto and again, it’s really no, no nonsense, no no, no bullshit. Is we’d like to call it just sort of giving you what you need

Gene Tunny  32:49

to know. Oh, that’s good. I like that. Your final question that just occurred to me with this defy with the decentralized finance, how disruptive could that be to the traditional banks. So the big four banks in Australia here, for example. I mean, is this something that they should be they should be concerned about?

Ben Simpson  33:08

Yeah, I don’t think it will ever take over the bank stream like I think the reality is that, you know, you look at the big four banks that are probably the biggest companies in Australia, right? You know, I don’t think a lot of people are going to turn away from this, because you need some level of of skill set with defi, but I believe it’s a it’s a better model where you’re not paying the middle person. You know, look how much money Comm, bank and ANZ are making. Like it’s obscene, right? They make all these fees, and it goes to shareholders. And, you know, I understand business as business, but, you know, with a decentralized model, there is no middleman. You don’t have to pay some person in the middle just because they were there. All that money and value can stay within, you know, a peer to peer environment. And, you know, those things already existing. I can take out a loan tomorrow. I can basically take my bitcoin, and I can go and take a collateralized loan out. So I can go and put up, let’s say, $10,000 a Bitcoin, and I can, I can lend out against that Bitcoin as a collateralized loan, so I don’t have to sell my bitcoin, and I can cash flow it without selling it. And that idea, I think, is only going to continue to grow, where people can stay within the crypto ecosystem and not have to go to banks, to go and to finance different activities, you know, loans, mortgages, whatever it might be. So, yeah, I think it’s very disruptive. How long is it going to take to disrupt? Who knows? But yeah, I like that space

Gene Tunny  34:27

right? And now there’s some good companies here in Australia, or are they mainly in the US doing this? There’s

Ben Simpson  34:33

one or two in Australia. We work with a company called Block earner. They’re not purely defi. They’re more of just a lending company, a pure defi company that I’m invested in, that’s in from Australia, is called maple, Maple finance. Oh, yeah, M, A, P, L, E, and yeah. They’re probably one of the largest defi providers in the space, founded out of Sydney. So yeah, a pretty cool project. And go check out as well.

Gene Tunny  34:59

Good one. Okay. Hey, Ben, it’s been terrific. Anything else before we wrap up? No, that’s it, mate. Thanks

Ben Simpson  35:03

so much for having me. Gene and yeah, if anyone wants some some help, we also do some free, like, just a free 30 minute call. If you’re thinking about getting into crypto or you need some help, you can jump on a call with one of our team, and we can help you out. Just head over to our website, which is just Google collective shift. And yeah, we’ll see what,

Gene Tunny  35:19

how we can help. Yeah, that’s terrific. I mean it, it sounds like, yeah, you’re coming from the right place. And my, my next door neighbor at what? So in in Brisbane, Thomas, he’s well aware of you. So he’s, he gives you the big tick of approval. So, well, I’ll put links in the show notes to you all the to your to your website and to your podcast and YouTube. Ben has been terrific. I’ve really enjoyed the conversation. Thanks,

Ben Simpson  35:46

Gene, thanks for having me. Man, bye.

Credits

Thanks to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Exploring Investment Opportunities in 2024 and Beyond, w/ Will Nutting, Nutstuff  – EP219

Show host Gene Tunny interviews former investment banker Will Nutting, who runs the investment newsletter “Nutstuff”, to discuss emerging investment opportunities in 2024 and beyond. Will explains how he focuses on unloved areas like coal, uranium and cannabis that many investors overlook. He also emphasizes the importance of factoring geopolitical risks into investments and outlines opportunities that he sees in gold, Bitcoin, distressed debt, and investments in Russia. Will discusses how paying attention to geopolitics can provide an investment edge and outlines his process for gathering insights from his extensive network. Please note that the discussion is meant to provide general information and not specific investment advice.

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored.

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcasts and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest Will Nutting

Will is the Founder and CEO of Nutstuff, a no-nonsense, investment newsletter with 2K+ subscribers, including CEOs and CFOs of some of the world’s biggest financial institutions, founders of the most exciting startups, investors at the highest performing funds across private and public markets, and HNWIs.

Will has been writing about and investing in markets since the 1990s, focusing on U.S. and global equities, and has had the good fortune to interact with and exchange ideas with many smart investors.

What’s covered in EP219

  • Investment banking, media analysis, and providing a better perspective. (1:59)
  • Geopolitics, equity research, and market trends. (7:32)
  • Potential peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine. (13:24)
  • Geopolitical tensions, global debt, and the future of Western nations. (16:53)
  • Investment strategies and geopolitical risks. (22:51)
  • Energy policy, ESG investing, and the future of fossil fuels. (28:31)
  • Investing in various market caps, including small and mid-cap stocks. (34:01)
  • Crypto investing and market trends. (36:29)
  • Geopolitics, investing, and global markets. (42:30)
  • Investing in distressed debt and real estate. (47:29)

Takeaways

  • Will Nutting believes opportunities exist in unloved areas like coal, uranium, offshore drilling, and cannabis/marijuana stocks.
  • Geopolitical risks like those in Ukraine, the Middle East, and China/Taiwan need to be factored into investments. 
  • Distressed debt could provide opportunities if the economic situation deteriorates.
  • Will is positioning for 2024 by focusing on gold, Bitcoin, commodities producers, and select technology companies.

Links relevant to the conversation

Will Nutting’s newsletter Nutstuff:

https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/

Transcript: Exploring Investment Opportunities in 2024 and Beyond, w/ Will Nutting, Nutstuff  – EP219

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Will Nutting  00:04

But the people who actually can open their eyes and go and look at what’s going on in the world, there’s, there’s never been a more exciting time to my mind to make money in equity markets.

Gene Tunny  00:16

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, in this episode, I sit down with former investment banker will Nutting who runs the nuts stock newsletter, who shares his views and where he sees opportunities emerging in 2024. And beyond. Among other things, we talk about gold, uranium, Bitcoin, distressed debt, and even about investments in Russia. You’ll hear Will’s Frank and fearless perspectives on markets and about how paying attention to geopolitics can give investors an edge. What I really like about Will is that he’s contrarian in an intelligent way. As always, when we’re talking about investments, this is all meant to be general information only rather than specific investment or financial advice. If you have any thoughts on what will Orion have to say in this episode, or if you have any ideas about how I can improve the show, then please get in touch. You’ll find my contact details in the show notes. Right. Oh, let’s get into it. I hope you enjoy my conversation with will nothing will not end. Thanks for joining me on the programme. Absolutely. Pleasure. Great to be here. Excellent. Well, well, you’re the author of the nuts, staff newsletter and what are you doing in your newsletter? You’re surveying the global economy, are you?

Will Nutting  01:58

Well, listen, I mean, that stuff started when I worked in their world of investment banking, or well, the broking on the investment banking side. And I got sick to death of ultimately having to retranslate unintelligible conclusion plus politically correct research. And I got to a stage whereby I just thought that the what the investment banks were producing was stuff that was doing anything but giving you an investable conclusion. And it was also perfectly hedged, that no one really came out of it, as I say, with, you know, with with a clear opinion. But I think by nature, I was always reasonably opinionated. I guess from my perspective, you know, I, when I left investment banking, I left broking at the suggestion of a few clients, I set up on my own COVID kind of hit about 12 months later. So suddenly, everybody, suddenly everybody was at home, and no one was in meetings. And that stuff really took off. And I did this as a say, when I worked inside a bunch of us investment banks. And of course, he used to put me head to head with the research departments and the heads of compliance, because very often, I was saying things that I probably shouldn’t have been saying, or I was saying them in a way that maybe I shouldn’t have been saying them. But I think we’ve, I think we’ve got to a world now where if you wake up in the morning, and you watch the BBC, or CNN or Fox, or you watch any network in Australia, and you read a national newspaper, either either, sir, that if that’s your media and your news input, you’re probably never more ignorant than you’ve been in the last 20 or 30 years as to what’s really going on in the world. And so not stuff came about as as really to try and have me doing my curated sources that I built up over 30 years where I really felt that I had a line into whether it be stuff going on in China, whether it be stuff going on in Ukraine, whether it be stuff going on in the Middle East, whether it be stuff going on in markets, I felt that if I had a curated bunch of contacts, who I knew themselves was much of truth seekers as I was, we will be able to put together a network or a platform whereby when we discuss subjects, and we try to do a curated narrative of the market, what’s going on in the market, where the world is going, why things are actually even happening in the world today, which we can talk about. When you got out the other end, you’ve got something that was readable. And that kind of connected the real world and the financial world. And so if you were sitting at home, trying to run your portfolio, or you’re time poor, and you’re trying to run your business, and you’re having a quick look at your investments, when you end up sitting down with a guy that manages your money or you end up sitting down with yourself managing your own money, you actually have a tool that hits your inbox a couple of times a week that actually really points out some of the anomalies but it also does the so what on markets because you know, we can talk about all this stuff and you know, if we woke up tomorrow Morning, I found that we had a, we had a peace treaty in Ukraine. We had a ceasefire in Ukraine. I guess the key question to ask is, how does that make you think differently about portfolios positioning? What would you own? What would you sell? Probably more importantly, and how would that change your bias as to how you would look into 2024? So I get a lot of this kind of stuff, you know, and as I say, it’s not just me, I have some extraordinarily talented and interesting inputs, which is to say, I’ve built up over nearly 30 years of doing this.

Gene Tunny  05:30

Gotcha. Okay. Just a couple of questions based on that will, which investment banks have you worked for or worked with?

Will Nutting  05:42

So I was so I know, I started my life at Fleming’s, which was a UK or Scottish actually investment bank that got ended up being bought by JP Morgan, doing Japan, which was pretty, pretty soon after I left the military as a soldier. I then to be honest, didn’t find a natural gravitation towards Japan. And I did to the US. So then I ended up going to work for Cowen, which was a Boston based investment, and they got bought by sock Jen. And then I went from Cowan, to, to Bank of America, while to Montgomery, actually, which ended up being bought by Bank of America. That was a West Coast technology house. And we did a lot of West Coast, West Coast growth, sort of growth, investing. And then I went from Bank of America, Lehman. And then I was at Lehman for five and a half years, I thankfully left before they disappeared in a puff of smoke. And I ended up in two or three other investment banks. So the last one I ended up doing was, was a steeple. Which, which is a regional regional investment bank in the States. So I always had a big bias to the US. But in a lot of the global investment banks that I work for, I always realised it was a relative game. And so I would always look at, you know, whether that was the rest of the world, European, Asian, UK equivalent stock sometimes to play a similar theme. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  07:05

gotcha. You mentioned that you thought that some of the analysis coming out of investment banks or analysis in the media is not telling you the full story. And you thought you could add, you could provide a better perspective, what do you think they’re missing? Do you have any examples of where you think that analysis has been deficient? And how have you improved on it? Do you have any examples of that? Well?

Will Nutting  07:34

Well, I think there’s, I think there’s a whole bunch of different areas. The first one, I would say, is that, I think a lot of the alpha that you can make, and maybe this isn’t necessarily Alpha inside the big index positions in markets, but a lot of the pure equity alpha you can make, you can make from frankly, just being contrarian and being brave. And so an example I would have of that as we were looking at the the, the sort of the craziness in ESG and the illogicality of a lot of the s ESG. Well, three years ago, and we picked up on a big theme and coal. There were no investment banks had coal analysts anymore, in the same way that hardly any investment banks, heavy heavy cannabis or marijuana analysts anymore. And we looked at an opportunity in coal, we saw how small the market capitalizations were, and we thought these companies and these stocks are not going anywhere. All they’re doing below the radar screen is paying down debt. And they’re ludicrously cheap. They’re ludicrously unloved. And when everyone hates something, it must go up. And when everyone loves something, it must go down. So it was a simple investment metric of becoming quite well known for doing a lot of work on, on on coal stocks. So I guess, inside investment banks, there was a lack of bravery. There was a there was a cow tearing to oh, gosh, evil coal, coals bad. But the perverseness of thinking that coal is bad, but somehow lithium mining and copper mining is all done with people wrapped in cotton wool in nice fluffy places is madness. So it was the double standards of a lot of corporate policy towards which companies and which industries you can cover. So while I guess it’s the lack of bravery, and a lot of the people use the expression woke I think woke is a bit of an over simplistic way. But I think it was, as I say, it was a lot of selectivity in wanting to be seen to be doing the right thing. And I’ve always thought that, you know, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. So, that was the, that was the metric on which we started to look at some of the, you know, uncovered areas. I think just in general with equity research, you know, having a view and having an opinion, that goes against the establishment, you know, was is a very difficult thing for most people to stomach. And I obviously talked about the geopolitics and the politics quite a lot because I think it It matters as to markets today. So I got a very resolute view on Ukraine, which was behind the tragedy, there was no possible way Ukraine was was going to be was going to be Russia and a fair fight. I wrote very early, it was David and Goliath. And you know, and David had a chance against Goliath. But, you know, once he ran out of stones, you know, he was never going to be Goliath. And I think what we’ve seen, even in the last 24 hours, with with Putin has been a lightning flash visit to to, to Abu Dhabi, and now in Saudi is the ramifications of that are that, you know, the world is completely and utterly misread what has gone on in Ukraine and where that’s going to go. So I think that’s obviously something that, you know, as we’ve been very resolute on the Middle East, to be honest, I’ve, I’ve stood back from. But the somatic that I’ve had for the last two and a half years, was a world of a rise of the oppressed and the revenge of the colonised. And I guess that was my sense that we were in a three to five year secular move, where the West has got all the entitlements, and all the debt, and all the arrogance, and the emerging markets. And the global South, because of the ubiquity of a lot of us technology, have had their eyes open to the fact that they’ve been oppressed and exploited by the West for many, many years. And that is gradually coming to an end. Now that has ramifications for a dollarized world that has massive ramifications for countries in Central Africa, which, you know, most people couldn’t put up, put on a map, but look at what’s going on in Niger, who suddenly woke up, you know, Mr. Macron, in France suddenly woke up one day when Niger had a coup, and realised one, the CFA franc was going to come to an end and Niger. Secondly, he was suddenly not going to end up with any uranium for his nuclear power stations. So again, that’s how the geopolitics plays into the market. And, you know, the, the ESG new energy world. So I guess, you know, they’re just a few examples of things that I kick around and look at. But as I say, the the overall sense to me is that you’ve got a bucket of market capitalization. In seven, seven US stocks, a lot of luxury stocks in Europe, a few selective stocks in the UK. And the opposite end of the market, you’ve got lots of short classes of potentially really, really exciting areas of alpha, if you’re willing to really go and kick the tires and the equity while in the equity world. And so I want to have a keeper first in the big stocks, because I think you need to do that from the perspective of staying relevant to index fund managers. But so people who actually, you know, can open their eyes and go and look at what’s going on in the world. There’s, there’s never been a more exciting time to my mind to make money in equity markets.

Gene Tunny  13:09

Right. Okay. Okay. Very good. Now, can I ask you about, you mentioned about Ukraine. And so Putin has been in the Middle East? And I think you were saying that? I can’t remember the the words exactly. But it is there going to be a peace treaty there? Or is there going to be some sort of deal cut in between Russia and Ukraine? Is that Is that what you’re suggesting? Is that going to happen? And basically, Ukraine is going to surrender some territory?

Will Nutting  13:40

I don’t know when I don’t know what my timing. My suspicion is that the timing is much sooner than anyone thinks. I think I write that the head of the US the head of the Russian military, and head of the Ukraine military both share the same Christian name, which is Valerie. I’m not I think it’s spelt in a rational way, not in a not in a Western way. But I think what I’m what I’m being told, and what I understand is that there are ongoing conversations at the moment, and they are effectively deliberating over really three things, which is, you know, the location location of talks, the way in which elections would be would be conducted. And three, who would actually well, I guess, for really, who would be the the arbitrator of that, which I think probably it would be Modi in India, Modi’s probably trod a more neutral path on Russia, Ukraine than any of the major countries. And and then I guess it’s the the nature and relationship of Ukraine with with joining NATO, but I just say I don’t, I think what we’ve ended up doing, if you think simplistically, Nixon and Kissinger spent many, many years, ensuring that China and Russia stayed well apart so that we didn’t get sandwiched in the middle. And what Mr. Biden and his friends and Mr. Johnson and everyone else have done in their wisdom is they’ve ultimately pushed the Russian bride into the arms of the Chinese bridegroom. And when you look at the reciprocity between Russia and China, and you look, I think I heard levens and gave say this, he made a very good point, which is that Russia have everything that China don’t have in China, really, the Russians don’t have. So really, the two fits together, conceptually on paper incredibly well, apart from the fact that I don’t think the natural bias for middle class Russians, is to want to go to China any more than the natural bias from it’ll cause Chinese to stay in China, I think they want to go to the west, they want to do Western things. Exactly the same thing applies in Saudi Arabia, you know, to to to people in Saudi Arabia. So I think that, what we need to do is we need to have a weenie if anyone needs to have regime change, we need a regime change in the West. And the regime change in the West needs to realise that Russia is a is a is a collection of states and countries that have 11 of the world’s 24 time zones. This is a massive, massive landmass of hugely diverse cultures, and to wish for the destruction of Russia to wish for a maimed and angry Russian buffalo is to see massive instability in the world. And so to my mind, a Western rapprochement with with Russia, is desired. And I think the to go back to The David and Goliath analogy, I think it’s very real, to my mind, that you will see more signs of of a peace treaty between Russia and new between Russia and Ukraine, I think sooner rather than later. And I always I’ve always said, and I’m not original in saying this, as you know, as soon as the money runs out, the world will move on, or, you know, middle class England and middle class America all have flagpoles. And, you know, they just it’s like a semaphore competition. You know, it’s the Ukraine flag one day, it’s the Palestinian flag the next day, the Israeli flag, the next you know, it’s who can put flags up and down. And it’s very fickle, and it’s very fast moving. And the world will move on very quickly, tragically, to to the next complex, which by the way, might be in a might be Guyana, next quarter, Venezuela, for example.

Gene Tunny  17:30

Yeah, yeah, I’ve been, I’ve been following that. Now, do you think that the West will, or the United States and Britain will try to, you know, it’ll try to repair its relationship with Russia so that it splits? It doesn’t have Russia and China in a block against it? Is that the suggestion? Is that what your is that your best?

Will Nutting  18:02

I think it goes back to the to the point, which is that if you’re sitting in the UK, you’re you’re sitting in the US, and you have a pragmatic view about where you are at in your, you know, take the Ottoman Empire kind of equivalent analysis, right. All the Holy Roman Empire, where are you? As I say, you’ve got I mean, I looked at the I was watching the the presidential debates that the leadership debates in the US last night, I mean, and the level of rudeness and offensiveness and unpleasantness it, it just plums new debt. So, you know, we live in a society now that is so disrespectful of institutions. And there’s a reason for that. The institutions have a lot to bear for that. Secondly, again, we have massive indebtedness, huge amounts of entitlement. And also, we have all the old people. And it’s an unpopular thing to say, but, you know, can we afford to continue to support, you know, the elderly populations that we do? And the answer is probably not, but no one’s willing to have that conversation, you know, politically, because it’s certainly in the UK, UK, politics is probably the same in Australia, you know, you know, the grey vote is been the vote that politicians have been trying to bribe and try and get hold on. So, for me, it’s a it’s a case of evolve or die in western case. And I’m not saying it’s in the next 12 months. But if you look at the history of the last 20 years, and look at all the conflicts that you know, we’ve been involved in, as we’ve obviously follow the US into a lot of these conflicts and in good faith. You know, that was all great when money was free. When money when we were waging a few wars in Afghanistan and places that most Americans and most Brits couldn’t put on a map. It was all great. But you suddenly take the cost of money from costing nothing to positive real rates. And you’ve got a completely and utterly different world to play with, you know? And not only are you seeing that emerging in the world of private equity, those people that, you know, that walked on water and could do no wrong, you know, look at the look at the look at the performance numbers in that industry, if you actually really break out the numbers for those funds since inception. So, when I look at it, as I say, I just think I think the world is changing. And if I was sitting there, and talking to, as I do on occasions, talk to politicians, it’s understanding that it is a case of evolve or die in many respects.

Gene Tunny  20:37

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Can I ask you about the Middle East? What? What are your thoughts on? What will happen there? Is there still a risk of a wider regional conflict involving Iran, involving other states in the Middle East?

Will Nutting  20:56

I don’t know that I have a greater perspective on this than anyone else. I mean, I was horrified by, you know, we’ve all seen the equivalency of the equivalency of what went on the seventh of October would have been, you know, the IRA in the UK, killing 9000 people, we can do all these analogies, and I’m not going to get taken down down a rabbit hole there. You know, I go back to the end of the Ottoman Empire in the in the 20s. I go back to Sykes Pico, when, you know, Frenchman, and an Englishman sat down with a crayon, probably with a glass of port and drew up the lines of the Middle East. But I guess when I stand back, and I take away, you know, go back to a time when these countries didn’t exist. And try and look at the true history of this. And then fast forward to where we are today. I think it’s incredibly difficult to see how a two state solution exists in the Middle East, and how we get to that stage. But again, I think what we’ve got to have is we’ve got to have leaders in the West, who have an interest in not accelerating and not exacerbating these conflicts. And I think we need to try and find a way of of dealing with this, you know, because the optics of the world looks at what’s going on in the Middle East. And as shocked as they are by what happened on the seventh of October. I think they’re also looking and saying maybe there is a an unacceptable civilian civilian casualty rate to the operations that are going on at the moment. So as I say, I mean, your guess is as good as mine, when it comes to Iran. I think I think the Iranian leader is I think he’s visited increasing in Moscow today. I mean, Iran seem to be, you know, seem to be very quietly, obviously playing a, you know, a very, very strong game here, you know. But as I say, I don’t want to even think about escalation at the moment. And I’m hoping that, you know, I hope that cooler heads can prevail.

Gene Tunny  22:57

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  23:03

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with adept economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice, we can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world, you can get in touch via our website, www dot adapt economics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  23:32

Now back to the show. So I guess what I’m interested in well, is to what extent are you factoring in these geopolitical risks going forward, such as you know, what’s happening in Ukraine, although it sounds like that sort of, that may not be a big factor in the future, given that there could be some sort of a deal? What could happen in the Middle East? And also in China, Taiwan? Is that is that a risk? To what extent are you factoring these potential? What would you call them zones of conflict or flash points into your investment recommendations?

Will Nutting  24:19

So I run the cyber sort of this little farm, this little portfolio that I publish every Monday and it’s, it’s, it’s got a few million dollars in it, and it’s, it’s a small amount of people’s money, it’s not open to external investors, and I don’t want to be a fund manager. But what I do want to do is to see that people see that I eat my own cooking, and I reflect, you know, I reflect my my thoughts and my ideas in six or seven key Cymatics we have a macro overlay thematics we use a bunch of ETFs to ultimately just reflect where we think the interesting parts of the world are. And then obviously, we have six kind of key Cymatics like global digital infrastructure and energy But infrastructure and stuff like that. So so it’s a fairly simple logical portfolio. As I said, factoring these thematics in Yes, I do. But But conversely, we sold out of most of our US defence stocks seven or eight months ago. By way of example, you know, we still have a some exposure to, to fertiliser, so, you know, feed the world. But on the whole, you know, I don’t, you know, I’m very, I’m very selective on, you know, trying to play the kind of war in conflict trade inside equities, because I think the market gets, you know, the market gets pretty savvy with it. We still own big systems in the UK, we’ve owned, we own some dividends, Ryan Mattel in Europe. But I think, you know, if you looked at the defence stocks as an example of what you are what you asked me, I think what we’re discovering now, as even the nature of warfare is changing. And, you know, though, these defence platforms are vital and hugely important. And whether it be aircraft carriers, F 20, twos, F 30, fives, multibillion dollar incredible aircraft, you know, also low level, you know, almost analogue warfare, when it comes down to drones, etc, you know, is something that the world is waking up to, you know, I’ve got an, you know, I’ve got an aircraft carrier, and you’ve got 50,000, you know, I’ll raise you your aircraft carrier to 50,000 drones. Now, you know, I’m sure that a state of the art aircraft carrier has the technology to repel drones. But I suspect if there’s a really concerted drone strike on a on a carrier group, you could probably inflict some, some fairly cataclysmic losses. So to me things like the thick of things like the the defence sector is much more important than, Oh, gosh, we live in and we live in a world, you know, let’s just blindly go and own defence stocks, oh, gosh, we live in a high conflict world, let’s blatantly just go no, no oil stocks, you know, I prefer the capital spending infrastructure, infrastructure cycle type names, you know. So when it comes to energy, I like infrastructure, I like uranium has been a still a huge and has been a big focus of mine for the last three years. I like offshore drilling. I like the lateral businesses to offshore drilling. Where you’ve also got, you know, huge cash generation and debt being paid down and such. So we’re pretty selective actually, about how we, how we play those thematics inside portfolio. The portfolio? Yeah.

Gene Tunny  27:39

Fair enough. Can I ask you about uranium? So are you do you think we will, there’ll be a resurgence in demand or a resurgence of investment in nuclear power? Is that what you’re projecting?

Will Nutting  27:55

Uranium is? I hate you know, I hate to say things are that simple, but to my mind, uranium is the is the is that it’s, it’s a simpler supply demand story, as I’ve seen, in my 30 years of doing this, you know, you’ve got, you know, 150 100 60 million pounds of production, you know, you’ve got children terminan of demand, if you if you use an analogy of oil with those numbers, it will be the entire focus of the world on the deficit in on the deficit in oil. You know, I mean, I think it’s 25% of US electricity production comes from from from from nuclear. And also, it’s not just a case of digging uranium out of the ground, putting on a truck, driving it to a power station, and loading it into a furnace, you know, you’ve got to actually process the uranium, you’ve got to produce the fuel rods, there’s a huge bottleneck. So there’s been a complete lack of capital spending in the uranium space, because there’s been a complete lack of capital spending in the energy bridge. And I guess I want to divert to this and just say that, when you look at energy policy and energy spending, you know, I think if we were sitting down with 20 year olds or our children and explaining the world we want to get to, in terms of energy, the other side of the chasm. I think we all kind of know what that looks like with wind, wave, solar, etc. But we have to supply and we have to, we have to provide baseload power, and baseload power. When you think about the energy bridge from the Old World to the New World, is, unfortunately, a lot of fossil fuels. And it’s going to be a lot of fossil fuels for the foreseeable future, which is why met coal is still a hugely exciting space. But when it comes back to Uranium, again, uranium is an area where it is the lowest cost the lowest cost electricity apart from hydro and utilities, have completely and utterly under understood went on shoring up their supplies, and then load on that the unknown quantity of small modular reactors coming into the market. I just think you’ve got a tremendous call option. The only thing that surprised me about uranium is one, how tiny the market capitalization is. So for most index players, it’s kind of irrelevant. Don’t talk to me about uranium. I mean, I can’t even I can’t even think about it. It’s not It’s nowhere in my index benchmark, apart from Cameco, that’s about the only stock that I think has any kind of relevance to people. But I think for anyone who’s smart, and actually tries to look at where the world’s going, I’m surprised that uranium isn’t $150 upon.

Gene Tunny  30:45

Right, gotcha. Okay. Okay. And you mentioned offshore drilling. So this is consistent with your, your expectation that we’re still going to be relying on fossil fuels for several decades into the future. So I suppose that yeah, that makes sense. It is, it is. And I,

Will Nutting  31:08

when I try it, when I try to think about energy transition, and energy position and energy policy, it kind of takes me back to school prize giving. And it makes me think, you looked at me strangely, and I know

Gene Tunny  31:23

that I was just thinking, I mean, it’s a very, it’s a very British thing, isn’t it? The school, the school prizes I was thinking of? There’s a great Jeeves and Wooster story with the prizes, but we won’t divert on to that. But go ahead, go ahead.

Will Nutting  31:38

So that the words think about it is that it’s about the ESG Industry and Energy Policy, which is that, yes, the industry and the whole environmental policy, what it’s done is it’s continued to reward. The, you know, the nerdy kid at school with the pedal back pedal that crosses, he was super bright, who always won the science prize, okay, from day one, continually given the science prize. To me, that’s the green energy company, they were they started good, they stayed good. And they got even better at being good. The problem is that the most exciting and most interesting price to reward at school price giving was a really badly behaved hit the big kid who had a real presence at school, who was the badly behaved, disruptive guy who was running around making a mess everywhere, causing damage, doing bad things to other kids who suddenly became a better behaved kid. And you can then give them the price of being better behaved. So when I look at energy, and that’s the brown energy companies, that’s the occidental is that the Exxon Mobil? That’s the BPS? That’s the Australian equivalents. It’s, you know, whoever it is. And so I think, if only governments and if only investors and investment mandates could take a look at these companies and say, right, you know, what, we need to start rewarding the businesses here, that kind of do a better job of evolving, not only is it going to be a good thing to attract capital back into these companies, who can continue to invest in the energy bridge, as I, as I, as I call it, you know, but also, I think it’s, it’s just going to send the right message to the industry. So again, I I’m not, I’m not a climate denier, I’m not an ESG dislike or hater, I’m just a pragmatist. And so I think that the second wave of ESG, whatever, however it looks, that will probably evolve in the next, you know, one to five years, I think it’s going to be much more joined up thinking much more honest, and much more realistic. And so, as I say, I think you know, the cop boondoggles of the last few years, you know, the latest one we had last week, I think just I think we’ve seen Peak Peak nonsense, and I think, peaking ESG and as peak climate nonsense, dissipates, I think some really interesting investment opportunities will come out the other side of it.

Gene Tunny  33:59

Okay, okay. Very good. I liked how you described the you’re talking about the shot glasses before you wanted to have some shot glasses? What’s in your shot glasses at the moment? Well, can you give us some idea of what those those are they? Are they speculative investments, how would you describe them? Well, I

Will Nutting  34:25

think so. I guess just to paint a scenario for this. The I don’t know what the data is, but probably over 90% of equity. Investing is passive. So let them take it that it’s passive funds, it’s machines. It’s it’s quants, it’s everything else. So what’s left over at the end of the day, is either you as a retail investor or as a you know, as an active investor scrabbling around saying, Have I got an edge on Microsoft have I got an edge on? Can I come over? Do I have an edge on Palantir eran AMD versus owning and video to get my exposure to artificial intelligence. Am I the smart? Am I smart enough to have worked out that IBM as a forgotten as a forgotten cap, a technology mega cap might actually have technology, I might actually be really, really relevant to AI, I could the AI Halo suddenly shine above AB IBM, which is what you’re seeing happening at the moment, for example. Now, I talked about some of this stuff, and I write about it. And I’m hugely focused on it because it’s hugely relevant for alpha and for performance. So I view those as the kind of buckets or those the buckets of market capitalization. What’s really interesting is in small cap and mid cap world up until about three weeks ago, it was literally like all the pint mugs in the world and disappeared, you know, and it was either as I say, a bucket or as a shot class. And the shot glass is all the all the tiny stuff. So a lot of it as I say it’s uranium stocks, its offshore oil stocks. It’s, you know, the old gold stock, its coal, its special situation, things that we have an healthcare like, really interesting company called cardio that deals with the some of the aftermath of COVID vaccines with pericarditis and myocarditis. It’s a it’s a gold company that has a hidden uranium company inside it that we look at and focus on a lot. I’ve said coal already. It’s tankers, some tanker stocks, you know, if you look at what’s going on in Panama, and look at what’s going on was in potentially in the Suez Canal, you’re beginning to see new tankers are not being built. You’re now actually seeing some tankers having to go round the whole south coast of America without going through the Panama Canal. Think about what that does to day rates on tankers, etc. It’s Kryptos. I have a positive, a cynical, I 55 years old, right? So I’m kind of a middle aged, middle aged white guy, with a with a natural cynicism towards tattoos, ponytails and people talking to me about crypto. But I’ve absolutely right that we absolutely own it and invest in it. And and I think that some really interesting, fascinating trends. And the final thing I can say to you, is we also cannabis and marijuana stocks, which remind me of kind of coal in 2020. We have we have some positions there as well. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  37:25

yeah. Very good. With the crypto. You mentioned that there are some trends that you’re you’re excited about, what are those with crypto?

Will Nutting  37:37

Well, I think to be to be positive about to be really positive about crypto, and to ripoff, the, the the cynicism that you see out there of it doesn’t really solve any problem. It’s, you know, it’s it’s the currency of criminals and perverts and, and, you know, weirdos, I think you have to get your head out of the developed West and go into emerging markets and go to the spec is done Korea, Stan, you know, and actually see how people use crypto see how people are entirely comfortable with having crypto wallets, see how people use crypto as as accurate as a security for loans in the same way that, you know, crowd funding has worked in the West. And so as I say, I think when I look at the risk reward on crypto when I look at Kryptos, entire market cap still being about 1/10 out of gold. And I look at the usability of crypto and how I see crypto developing that usability. And I think I’m right saying there’s 22 about 22,600 Different Kryptos but 53 or 54% of Kryptos market cap is basically and effectively Bitcoin and Aetherium you know, so to me, I think, you know, if you don’t own Bitcoin, or you don’t own Aetherium, or synthetics or any kind of defy plays, and you’re sitting in front of grown up investors, I think you better have a really, really good reason why you don’t you better own lots of gold as an alternative. And I’d suggest that if you actually get on a plane and go and travel to the global South, the parts of the world that are growing really fast, with dynamic young populations, without old people without entitlement, and with no debt. You’ll come back feeling a whole bunch more about crypto than you would if you’re sitting in your office in Mayfair or Washington.

Gene Tunny  39:42

Yeah, yeah. Okay. Okay. Now, what’s your process for, for getting these insights? So you mentioned you’ve got a you’ve got an extensive network, have you got a team working for you?

Will Nutting  39:55

So we have I mean, we, in terms of kind of, you know, full time employees as basically as effectively, we’re pretty much a team of two in terms of actually running the business on a day to day basis. But I have about five people who some are all clients of mine, some of the people I’ve known for many years, who, on the whole, we’re all super successful, overtired. And all living in interesting parts of the world, and all doing really interesting things. But also, they massively wanted to keep their head, their head in the game in terms of markets, and macro and geopolitics, something else. And so what happens is that, you know, a little bit like having a research department, you know, if I want to, if I want to look at global video games, or I want to look at Coal, I want to look at tankers. I have my own go to sources where I would go to, you know, we’re not writing, probably writing a five page report. To my mind, what I’m trying to do, and that stuff is to make people question make, make, make people think, on occasions, make people laugh, and try and make or save your money. And so these sources, and these, these people that kind of work with us, our partners, if you like, are just incredibly useful as one as kind of sounding boards, but also as amazing sources of perspective and information. And, you know, they are on the whole, you know, in some respects, just trying to do what I’m trying to do, which is to home, you know that that truth seekers they are. And they’re, they’re realists and pragmatists in terms of how they look at the world. So we have, you know, regular conference calls, we have regular brainstorming sessions every week. And so I have a really good, experienced team that I kind of a second check on me. And on occasions, you know, we’ll sit on a call and I’ll go on, am I completely off the wall on this on? Am I am I? Am I mad thinking, thinking about this in this way? You know, how? And then the other question, I guess I ask is, how consensus? Am I is everyone else talking about this? Because if everyone else is talking about something, or everyone else is focused on something, you know, I don’t want to be the last guy at the party drinking the mind sweeping the drinks, you know, you know, I want to be the kind of first guy at the party and I don’t really mind if, you know, I’ve got to make small talk with, you know, with the granny, you know, until the fun people turn up. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  42:18

Okay. And so who’s your newsletter pitch that will? So I mean, you mentioned like, you’ve got high net worth individuals. Like, who would who’s going to benefit from this?

Will Nutting  42:33

I think it’s, you know, it’s pitched at it? Well, when you look at the content of it, it’s got a bit of everything for everybody, because it’s got some thought provoking stuff on the geopolitics side, it’s got some real world stuff that, you know, I just pick up from people sending stuff to me, and, you know, I scrape batter, you know, meet other media stuff and such, like, you know, but on the whole, if you’re time poor, if you’re intellectually curious, if you have to look at markets, or you have to look, or you have an interest in understanding how the real world meets the financial world, and how that looks, it’s really pitched to anyone in that environment. So, you know, we have anyone from one of the most respected, macro hedge fund managers in the world, who uses it as a, as a real world check. You know, if you, if you sit inside a big New York hedge fund, for example, you know, 90% of your employees probably going to chauffeur driven car to work, they get a chauffeur driven car home, you know, they, half of them were a lot of them fly privately, you know, they have restaurant quality food delivered to their desk. And, you know, it’s such like, most of them don’t even ever look out the window, and actually go and look at what’s going on in the world, you know? And so we’re kind of a reality check. We’re a real world reality check as to look at this. Have you thought about that? And as I say, Well, anyone who receives that stuff really, as somebody who’s who’s intellectually curious, and all we’re trying to do, I think, is to make people feel and look a little bit smarter about a whole bunch of subjects. And the process. What I love about it is there’s a huge reciprocity, which is that peep, I get a normal amount of feedback from people. And so if I’m really, if I’m really taking an aggressive stance on something political or geopolitical or something about the market, you know, it’s very interesting to me to know how much pushback I get and who gives me that pushback. But as I say, it’s a hugely broad church from some of the most respected entrepreneurs and investors in the world family offices, but also I have a lot of people’s kids, you know, who’ve left university who’ve been given their first, you know, 20 or 20 or 30 grand, they’ve just started an equity portfolio. And they’re trying to work out, you know, they’re understanding the power of compounding mathematics, and they’re trying to work out what they should own and what they shouldn’t own.

Gene Tunny  45:02

Okay, so it sounds like it is not necessarily out of the out of reach for people who aren’t hedge fund managers, then I’ll put a link in the show notes to it so people can check out the details. Gene, our

Will Nutting  45:19

system is, you know, we give people a month free or whatever it is. And, you know, as I say, I mean, it’s 85 pounds a month is a meaningful, it’s a meaningful investment for a new for, for a letter. But it’s not a newsletter. It’s a facts, ideas and conclusions letter. And so it really does drill down to and give you investable conclusions. And that’s one of the reasons why I think, you know, we charge what we charge is because if you make frankly, one decent investment decision that it pays for itself, you know, hand over fist.

Gene Tunny  45:51

Gotcha. Okay, as global focus, so you’d have a focus on East Asia and Australia. global budget of global focus.

Will Nutting  45:59

Absolutely. And one of the reasons I travel as much as I do, is because I go to, I mean, I can’t tell you how many countries I’ve been to this year. But you know, Namibia and Africa, South Africa, Mozambique. I’ve been all over the stands as Becca Stein, Craig iStan, I’ve been to Panama, I’ve been to Colombia, just to name a few. And when I go there, I don’t just go there to lie on a beach. I go there, and I meet people who run, you know, I’ve wandered around the office base port, the guy who, who, who runs the port in Valencia, Spain, Namibia, understanding what’s going on with oil discovery and infrastructure in the energy and oil business in southwestern Africa. You know, I went and met the guys who run all the all the power transmission business in Namibia as well. And understanding that relationship with what’s going on with South Africa and their power problems in South Africa. So we really do go and meet and try and understand what’s going on in places. And then I’m just looking for those nuggets of interesting stuff to explain to other people why and how those things are happening, but also looking for investment opportunities.

Gene Tunny  47:10

Okay, okay. Very good. Final question. Well, 2020 24, what are you expecting? What do you think? Do you have any ideas on what the what big developments there will be? What are you? How are you positioning yourself for 2024?

Will Nutting  47:28

So I think 2024 if I’m, if I’m, if I’m right, I think there’s a there’s a slim chance that we get an acceleration in in a past acceleration in inflation. But on the whole I, I’m hoping I’m hoping and thinking that the current escalation that we’ve seen in kind of geopolitics comes down. I don’t see China, escalating with Taiwan, I think quite the opposite. So I see some rapprochement of some of the geopolitics. But I also see a big drive to nationalisation. So I think, you know, countries are increasingly going to be looking after themselves, you know, there’s going to be an anti Davos psychology to most to most countries, you know, I think we’re going to be going through this huge election cycles. So I think that’s huge election cycles is going to feed that I think it’s going to feed economic nationalism. You know, when it comes to, you know, I think gold will go higher, I think Bitcoin will go higher. I think Russia will potentially be a really fascinating investment. I think coal alongside uranium will still be great investments, I think oil arguably will still be a very good investment as well. So on the whole I’m still focused on kind of the bottom end of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs pyramid and less focused on the top you know, not saying okay, not saying that we are going to have some incredibly good opportunities and technology and I’m absolutely not the guy tried to write off artificial intelligence. But I do worry that the seven big technology companies in the world it for entitled indebted West that needs to cut debt I do worry that they are such serial underpay as of tax that the potential opportunity for for tax rates to have to go up materially inside these big technology companies. I think to me is a big concern.

Gene Tunny  49:35

Yeah, gotcha. Okay. Okay. Right. Oh, we will not own anything else before we wrap up. This has been terrific. I love your insights into being contrarian how you can benefit from it. I mean, not I mean being contrarian in an intelligent way. I think often there’s a lot of you know, there is contrarian ism and as may not be helpful, but I think you can In contrary and in an intelligent way, and I think you’ve demonstrated that with some very good examples. Any other points before we wrap up?

Will Nutting  50:09

No, I think if I was sitting talking to young people in school, and I didn’t want to talk and kind of financial language, I’d say, I think the kind of the, the Anglo Saxon world needs to get back to its its culture, and its balance, and its realism. And its focus. And I think we need to focus on getting back to our traditional strengths. And I think what’s interesting is, that’s what Russia and China are doing. And I think that when we stand back, and we look at how we’re going to navigate this next very difficult period, you know, of multiculturalism, and everyone having a phone, everyone having an opinion, everyone’s seeing what’s going on in the world unfolding on a daily basis on a screen, you know, I think we’re gonna have to go back to basics, and I think it’s going back to basics in society. And when it comes to investing, it’s going back to basics and investing, which is, you know, free cash flow, you know, you know, low leverage, and me as a shareholder, and an equity holder, getting returns. And if I’m looking at the toxic areas of the market, it’s probably going to be a world where where, you know, distressed debt is going to be a fascinating opportunity. And as well as I think, you know, global macro, it’s not going to be private equity. And it’s probably given its and it’s probably not going to be bonds. But I mean, I’ll let the bond I’ll let that I’ll let the bond guys pontificate on that.

Gene Tunny  51:38

Gotcha. Just before we go, What do you mean, what were you driving out exactly with distressed debt? There? was so I mean, I think what do you have in mind

Will Nutting  51:47

that if I started today, if I, if I started today, I listened to a podcast, um, yesterday with the head of Blackstone’s real estate business, and a lot of the fat not understanding really any of the language that she uses. She sounded to me like, you know, she’d been schooled in the same school that the principles of, of Harvard and Penn University have been schooled in, which is seen in all the news worlds, and I was 20. For us. You know, I, I think that the, the opportunities that have been unlocked in the next two years, as retail investors are kind of locked in the church and, and set fire to, as they have opportunities to go and buy the retail charges of the these big private equity firms offer distressed offerings. I think that if you’re sitting there with a big pile of cash, the opportunity to go and buy, you know, cheap UK assets. But the same way, I think the opportunity to go and buy exposure to very cheap real estate assets is going to be huge. The question for me is, do you want to own the equity? Or do you want to own the debt, and I suspect being as high up the capital structure as possible is where you want to be. And he probably needs it, and you probably want to get paid to wait. So I’m going to imagine that I think the debt side is more interesting than the equity side. Okay,

Gene Tunny  53:12

okay. Gotcha. Right. Oh, well, not. This has been fascinating. I really appreciate your insights. I will put a link in the show notes to not stuff and yeah, I encourage. If you’re listening in the audience, and you like what we’ll have to say, then yeah, definitely check that out. I think it’s, it sounds like you got a great process. There will end. Yeah, I really enjoyed your insight. So thanks so much again, for your time. Obviously,

Will Nutting  53:42

we can sign you know, we can we can sign people up for it. We give people a month or a couple of months for free. And you know, that we can work on that basis. But listen, thanks so much. Really, really enjoyed it.

Gene Tunny  53:53

Excellent. Thanks so much. Well, alright.

Will Nutting  53:55

Thanks a lot.

Gene Tunny  53:58

rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

54:45

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this where to begin your own podcasting journey head on over to obsidian-productions.com

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Crypto arbitrage searcher Dave Belvedere on crypto and dApps such as Wizards & Dragons – EP178

Dave Belvedere is a software engineer who searches for opportunities to make the crypto market more efficient and to make money at the same time – e.g. by exploiting arbitrage opportunities. Dave gives show host Gene Tunny and his colleague Tim Hughes an overview of cryptocurrency and also talks about NFTs and decentralized applications (dApps), such as Wizards & Dragons.

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple PodcastsSpotify, and Stitcher.

What’s covered in EP178

  • What is Dave’s role in the crypto market? [1:10]
  • What is a chain and how does it work? [3:39]
  • How long does it take to make a transaction? [9:26]
  • What does a crypto exchange (e.g. FTX) do? [15:30]
  • What do we know about miners? [20:20]
  • What’s the future of crypto currencies? [25:44]
  • What is Ethereum and how does it work? [45:57]
  • What are the pros and cons of crypto? [52:07]
  • What are dApps? [57:01]
  • What are the use cases? What would motivate you to have crypto? [1:06:33]

Links relevant to the conversation

Bitcoin creator:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto

Wizards & Dragons game:

https://dappradar.com/ethereum/games/wizards-dragons-game

Transcript: Crypto arbitrage searcher Dave Belvedere on crypto and dApps such as Wizards & Dragons – EP178

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:06

Welcome to the Economics Explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Dave Belvedere, welcome to the show. Thanks for having me. Excellent Dave, joined by Tim Hughes. Of course, Tim, good to have you here too.

Tim Hughes  00:43

Hey, Gene. Good to be here mate.

Gene Tunny  00:44

And Tim, thanks for introducing me to Dave, who is involved in crypto and crypto is something that Tim and I have chatted about before, and we’re conscious that we need to know more about it, we’re at a certain level of understanding of it, and it’d be good to increase that understanding. So to kick off with Dave, could you talk about your involvement with crypto, please?

Dave Belvedere  01:10

Yeah, so I’m what I do is I’m classified as a searcher within cryptocurrency. So a searcher is somebody who looks for opportunities to make the market more efficient. So one of the classic examples is arbitrage. So when somebody adds a cryptocurrency to one side of a pool, so those get created by automatic market makers, which we can talk about, so yeah, yeah. So if they add, say, you know, 20,000 ETH to one side of the pool, and the other side of the pool holds USD t, then there’s an offset of the balance of how much USD T costs versus what the general market says.

Tim Hughes  01:48

So David, USD t is,

Dave Belvedere  01:50

it’s so sorry, yeah, the USDt is tether. It’s backed by sort of the organisation that runs it to maintain a level pay going against the US dollar. So it’s one to one to the US dollar. Okay. So there’s a couple of coins like that, that are referred to as stable coins. So this is within Ethereum, which is USD T and USDC. So us coin but it’s not the US market coin. So it’s not connected to the US government at all. Okay, so ETH is Ethereum and if there’s a theory, okay, and then you’ll have BTC, which is Bitcoin? Yeah.

Gene Tunny  02:29

And is there a simple way to explain the difference between Ethereum and Bitcoin?

Dave Belvedere  02:34

Yeah. In essence, the cryptocurrencies. So it’s cryptocurrency really is just a digital asset that’s backed by a cryptographic hashing algorithm. Digital Asset is something just like a bank account, or something like that. So yeah, we see it every day. Yeah, technically, all Australian dollars, when you start to pay with your credit card, that’s really just a digital asset. In this case, it’s a digital asset that is then secured by cryptography. So when you go visit the bank, you’ll usually see HTTPS, that s stands for secure, and that’s backed by cryptography. So same sort of mechanism. And in this regard, when we talk about Bitcoin and Ethereum , they’re actually two independent cryptocurrency chains. So they’re not really connected together. And what that means is that they operate a little differently. So Bitcoin was the first one, they came in around 2009. So a lot of people would have heard it, because, yeah, that the market value quite, quite hugely, I think, a couple of years ago, it was up to like 80,000, US or 80,000, Australian. And it’s come back down now. But yeah, head has gained a lot of popularity. So when we get into a chain, there’s a couple of things when we talk about what a chain is. So we would have all heard of the classical blockchain. And that’s what sort of secures Bitcoin and Aetherium. So blockchain is really an ledger, we probably always, always heard it. So transactions just get added, and you can’t go back and modify the transactions. And one way, well, the guarantee for that is the consensus mechanism that gets used. So let’s just say I make a couple of transactions on Bitcoin. So I’m sending some bitcoin to somebody else, that transaction gets added to a block. So there can be many transactions or none, no block. Yeah. And then that block then goes through all gets consensus with the rest of the network. So one of the differences are that, I guess one of the big differences with blockchains is that for most of the blockchains, that distributed systems, so nodes all around the world make up the actual blockchain. So there’s no one entity that can control the blockchain itself.

Tim Hughes  04:53

So this is the decentralised term when it’s used. This is what the what they mean by that.

Dave Belvedere  04:57

Yeah, yeah. So that’s sort of like you can shut down, say everything in the US, but the chain will still operate because you know, it’s in Europe, it’s in Asia, it’s in Australia. So you can’t really shut the chain down.

Tim Hughes  05:09

And is that just on that subject, is that one of the reasons that so much energy is needed for a transaction? Is that where that consumption comes in?

Dave Belvedere  05:17

So to a degree, there’s a couple of things that will maintain the security of the blockchain. So a couple of blockchain. So in this case, Bitcoin itself is actually vulnerable to a degree to the 51% attack. So when we talk about distributed systems, it’s different control most of those systems, you can do whatever you want in the system, which is classified as the 51%. Yeah, so I haven’t heard that term before. So if I control 51% of all miners, and let’s just say in Bitcoin, then I can make any transaction valid, because I control the majority. Yeah, the consensus mechanism that gets used as always a majority, if the most of the nodes agree that this transaction is valid, it’s valid, and there’s no going back once that transaction, that transaction has been committed, there’s there is a couple of nuances to that. So you can challenge a block if it hasn’t been finalised. But for the most part, we you can always just assume, as soon as that transaction gets committed into a block, and it’s on the blockchain, it’s there forever.

Gene Tunny  06:19

Yeah, but because it’s so decentralised. And there are so many 1000s I don’t know how many 10s of 1000s of people around the world who are they’re mining or whatever they’re doing. They’re overseas, so they’ve got a stake in it, then the probability of having that 51% attack is extremely low, isn’t it? 

Dave Belvedere  06:40

Yeah, you need sort of a lot of a lot of materials and a lot of money, honestly, to get to that point. Yeah. So when something small, obviously, it’s easy. But yeah, given its past sort of popularity, and its nature, yeah, it gets gets very hard. And yeah, so the Yeah, it’s, it’s extremely hard to try and try and get that in a bunch of, there’s a collection, so you might not be able to create the block. So when we, when we talk about these miners, yeah, suddenly, to I guess sort of to lead up to is why miner are unnecessary in Bitcoin, now and previously, in Ethereum, is that they are looking for the next block. So they’re trying to get consensus on the block. Yeah. So when somebody commits a transaction that doesn’t get added to the blockchain, automatically, it goes to the miners. And what they’re doing is running the consensus algorithm. So the algorithm is just really cryptographic hash. And what it includes is the hash of the header of the previous block, plus all the transactions plus a random number. And what they’re trying to do is run that hash it such that they get a viable block, the block is valid in accordance to the consensus algorithm. That is where all the power is spent all that time, because you’re running a cryptographic algorithm, which is usually quite computationally heavy. Yeah, in the best of times, and they’re trying to beat everyone to the block. Because if you create a block, you get a reward for it. So you might get one Bitcoin, or something like that. So it is viable to try and create as many blocks as you can to get those rewards.

Tim Hughes  08:16

That’s the reward for being a miner. Is that right?

Dave Belvedere  08:20

That’s the reward for creating a block. You spend all your time mining, not create a block and get nothing. Yeah, so one of the things that they’ve done, because obviously, that sort of starts to lean towards people with more money, more resources can deploy more things, is they’ve created these mining pools, such that you can contribute to the pool, and it might make up say, 25% on the network. And then if the pool itself creates a block, you get a you get a little piece of that based off of you know, how much you contribute to the pool.

Tim Hughes  08:57

Quick, quick question with that. So with the people who don’t manage to mine the block, is that part of the excessive amount of energy needed for a transaction because it’s basically wasted energy, they resource is a bit like an Olympic bid or how it used to be. So all that money is spent was for nothing, because it went to wherever

Dave Belvedere  09:18

Somebody else. Yeah, so they’re basically you know, running these things as quick as they can and they might get beaten by nanoseconds.

Tim Hughes  09:26

Yeah. And how long would a transaction normally take roughly?

Dave Belvedere  09:29

So it depends on the on the chain being used, I think at the moment with Bitcoin because they’ve like they’ve mined so much it takes you know, 10s of minutes to actually create a new block in Ethereum. They switched from proof of work the consensus of proof of work, which is what Bitcoin still operates on, to proof of stake which is less computationally heavy consensus mechanism and it also you can argue it distributed through the miners a lot cleaner to, and they’re fairly quick. So compared to Bitcoin, so they generate a new block, I think, every second pretty much and the transactions that get included are just transactions there.

Tim Hughes  10:14

Because yeah, this sorry, Jamie, because this is something like last year or isn’t it when Ethereum. So this is the change that they did way? I think it’s only 10%? Or is it like a 90%? reduction on 99.9%. Wow, okay, of their power, which is enormous. I mean, that’s because that was the we’ve talked about it before with outrageous amount of energy spent. And to hear it, they’re like is completely wasted? Any delegates not necessary for that transaction. So it’s wasted energy. Yeah. So Ethereum have made this quantum leap, basically, to make it far more efficient. Yeah, pretty

Dave Belvedere  10:46

well, efficient in terms of memory. Sorry, in terms of power. Yeah, like the contestants. So proof of stake, the way it works is like a scheduler just goes, you’re going to create the next block. And so only one person is effectively going, here are the valid transactions and pushes the block out, you still got validators that will be like, That’s a good job or challenge to do it. So I guess sort of a little difference between proof of work and proof of stake as the consensus mechanisms. Proof of Work is just really run, like find that cryptographic hash match. Proof of stake is you put up X amount of capital, or for this, in this case, it’s 32 ETH, which is about 80,000 Australian, and you say I will behave correctly and properly. And if I generate a block, you get sort of the rewards for that. Now, in order to avoid bad actors, or just somebody coming in with a massive amount of ETH. And being like, I’m just going to do this, they have challenge periods. So if somebody like, let’s just say, misbehaves as the node and puts in a bad transaction, somebody, anyone on the network, so like, you could be just a little guy on the network and these big, big mining groups around you can challenge the block. It’ll force everyone to go through and actually, like, compute this at a sort of hashing level. And if you’re right, and they did misbehave, they lose all the capital that they put up. So they get slashed, 32. And so the node gets bounced, and then that 32 ETH comes back to the network. Because you challenged it, I think you get like, 90% of that, and a bunch of it gets burnt offs. Yeah. So it’s sort of the that’s the mechanism to make sure everyone is behaving correctly.

Gene Tunny  12:39

Don’t can’t ask a basic question. Yep. Say you bought a couch off, Tim. And you wanted to pay Tim in cryptocurrency? I mean, maybe bitcoins the example to use, since that’s what most people are familiar with? How would it work? I mean, would Tim have to have a wallet, a crypto wallet?

Dave Belvedere  13:01

Yeah, so crypto will only really send to what we call wallets are really just public keys and private keys. So it’s the public key infrastructure that sort of backs a lot of lot of internet, mobile, a lot of sort of infrastructure around the world at the moment. And you have a public key and a private key. Okay, so most people might have heard this, like, somebody’s private key got lifted, and crypto got drained. If you’ve got a private key, you can decrypt anything that gets encrypted with the public key. So in this case, I’m sending it to Tim’s public key, and then only Tim will be able to, to get that from his public key if he’s got the private key.

Gene Tunny  13:43

So who sets up the public key? Tim need to do that?

Dave Belvedere  13:46

And Tim needs to do it. So in order to generate a wallet, you’ll get both the public key and its private key.

Gene Tunny  13:51

Okay. And who are the players that do that for you that is that a an exchange? A crypto exchange?

Dave Belvedere  13:56

Yeah, there’s, there’s a, like, you can do it through an exchange. But then typically, like, there are exchanges out there, okay. They might like to hold the private key or, you know, be able to recover private keys and things like that. Yeah, you can do it through a bunch of, sort of specialised applications. So we call them just wallets. So the most common one in Ethereum is Metamask. So it can you can just plug it in, it’s just a Firefox Chrome app, and you go create new wallet, and it’ll generate that those keys for you.

Tim Hughes  14:29

Is that user-friendly Dave or is that something that you’d need someone like yourself to help set up?

Dave Belvedere  14:36

No, it’s it’s it’s pretty easy. User friendly now. So yeah, like a couple years ago would have been like, what’s going on what’s up, but now, you know, they’ve made many changes has been very user friendly, like to go through you instal it. It’ll be like, how you like recovering your existing wallet. And if that’s the case, you got to provide the private key, or the seed phrases to generate the key Um, ball. It’s just like, okay, cool. Finding a new wallet, you click a button creates the wallet for you. Yeah, it stores the like, you won’t see the private key, but I’ll give you the seed phrases that are used to recover that private key and record these because if you don’t have the private key, this is the only way to get this back.

Gene Tunny  15:20

Okay, so who would do the transaction? Is that through the exchange? If you understand money to Tim, or is the exchange doing is FTX? I mean, what did a company like? FTX do so

Dave Belvedere  15:33

FTX was primarily changing, like currency for cryptocurrency. So they, they act as the middleman. Okay, so you know, I’d give them Australian dollars from the bank, okay, and then I could buy on their market at their rates, x amount of crypto that they’re holding in their wallet, okay. And then from that I can either like so as a part of that, typically, you’ll find an account with the exchange that will have like an embedded wallet associated with it, or whatever their infrastructure needs. And then I can transfer that to say, my wallet, and then I can transfer some to Tim or I can use that exchange to transfer it to Tim directly. Okay, so exchanges are primarily there for transferring currency. So, so transferring dollars to currency, or transferring between cryptocurrency across chains, or transferring between cryptocurrency on the same chain. So when we talk about an Ethereum is not just ETH it has a bunch of coins on the same chain. And yeah, you can use an exchange to say transfer one Eth to USD C or USD t. So the two stable coins you’re talking about before. Or I can, you do that what they call on chain through DEX’s. Okay, decentralized exchanges. Okay. So they create pools or what we call automatic market makers. Yeah, so they usually have a pool, which is, this is a 50/50 pool. So it has Ethereum and USDC. So the pool itself, ideally, at any point is trying to maintain half of its quantities Ethereum and the other half is USDC. And now what sort of I look for on chain is when somebody then dumps 20k Ethereum into that pool, means there’s an imbalance between the side. So yeah, who would automatically want USDC or getting rid of ETH. So it’ll make eath very cheap to buy, so wants to get rid of it to maintain the balance, yeah, or give me a really good price to put USDC into the pool, because it wants more of that to try and maintain that 50/50. And that sort of is the classical arbitrage from that I can buy low at some other pool or on the decks itself, and then put it into this. And what makes that possible is decentralise exchanges. Don’t look at you know, a fee that says the market price for ETH is x to what exchanges use. So exchanges will typically have, you know, the current market price of ETH is whatever $1,600 And that’s based off of, you know, what’s happening now what’s happening on other exchanges, like Binance and things like that, and they sort of get a get a market price for that. Whereas decentralised applications, their market price is literally what the pool says. So yeah, you can sort of get really good deals. And yeah, when you sort of try and make that market efficient on the decentralised side it Yeah, can can open up a bunch of opportunities.

Tim Hughes  18:55

Can I just ask Dave? So with winning that transaction in your, you know, for that particular situation, is that all about speed? Or is so what are the factors in being able to get that transaction?

Dave Belvedere  19:06

Yeah, so there’s, there’s a couple of things that will impact that transaction. So on Ethereum, it’s not necessarily about speed, you certainly have to be there when they’re trying to create the block. So let’s just say the timing window for creating a block is 100 milliseconds. So as long as my transaction to do that is in that block time creation window, I have a chance to potentially win that transaction. And what it comes down to on Ethereum is you can tip the miner to be like, you want to put my transaction first. So let’s just say I’m going to make three ETH. From this transaction, I can tip the miner 2.5 of that ETH so I get half of that if I can give the miner 2.5 If they put my transaction first, so which means the Miner is getting more money to make sure that my block Isn’t there first my transactions in there first, and then they can put the rest of the transactions. And so that’s sort of making up what we, you know, sort of what gets identified as MeV. So mine extractable value. So they’re looking for the most profitable transactions to put inside their block in order to make the most money. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  20:20

So what do we know about these miners? There are professional miners aren’t there? And are there amateur miners? I mean, is it guys in the basement? Or is it? I know there are some dedicated companies aren’t there that are doing the mining and they’re all around the world? Do we have any here in Brisbane, I’m just fascinated with these miners are.

Dave Belvedere  20:40

Ya know, it’s really it’s, it’s anyone that has the computer with the resources and is running the algorithm, you can be a miner at that point. Yeah, mine is there to operate the chain it does. Under proof of work, it is better to be with other miners, like around other miners, because you want to broadcast the block that you find to the network as quickly as possible, because two people might come up with the same solution or like different transaction orders. But both of the blocks that they produce pass the consensus algorithm, it’s whoever can saturate the network or saturate 51% of the network they’re blocked in is the next block. So you might do all this work, find a block, create the block and then still miss out.

Tim Hughes  21:29

 Right, which was the original problem, anyway. So yeah, just is it? Well, as far as energy consumption goes. So with the changes that Ethereum made, it’s the same process, but just quicker, and with fewer people vying for it. Is that right?

Dave Belvedere  21:41

Just just one person vying for it. So it’s like, with proof of stake, it’s like, it’s your time to create the block. And you have to answer within a certain timeframe. If you don’t, there is a little bit of a penalty, like you lose, start to lose some of your stake, and they just go to the next person.

Tim Hughes  21:56

And how do you be in that little group or chain? Or?

Dave Belvedere  22:00

Oh, it’s just really running the node software, So the actual node software is executing, you just connect to it. And and you’re pretty much in it.

Gene Tunny  22:09

Yeah. What do you know about the profitability of the mining? Because is it something where there’s such low barriers to entry, there’s just, you know, lots of people have come into it seeking the profit. And then that gets, you know, that those opportunities get dissipated? Or? I mean, I’m guessing there are some players in the mining game who have, they’ve just got such great computer capability, or there, they’ve got a better algorithm, that they could get a lot of the winnings, but what do you know about the profitability of mining? And the, I guess, the market structure, I suppose you call it?

Dave Belvedere  22:48

Yeah. So um, under proof of work, mining profitability, I think sort of, when we talk about Bitcoin is starting to fade away very quickly, because you need to spend all this energy. And I’m, I’m pretty, pretty sure that they’ve dropped the block rewards, quite recently. So what you get for actually creating a block that’s come down, so you’re getting less and less, sort of Bitcoin for creating that block now, right? So the profitability is starting to go away. In Ethereum, it’s still kind of there, it’s sort of like a random random shoot, if you get a really good block, where let’s just say something skewed pool a lot. And you’ve got these searches, trying to like get money out of the pool to make it market efficient, you might end up with a block that might pay you say, 50 EtH, in those tips. So that’s random. But the problem is, is that there’s a lot of like, nodes around the world for a theorem, because now it’s just super, super, super basic to set up and those sort of requirements are starting to fall away a little bit. That yeah, it is hard to like, get to that block, like it is pretty much a random chance. Okay.

Tim Hughes  24:04

But, Dave, you mentioned a couple of terms, actually, you have Bitcoin operate and how Ethereum operate, which is essentially then the difference that made it possible for Ethereum to use so much less energy. What was that again?

Dave Belvedere  24:18

They’re their consensus mechanism. So proof of work versus proof of stake.

Tim Hughes  24:22

Yeah, right. Okay. So Bitcoin have proof of work, Bitcoin and proof of work? Yep. Is it possible for them to do the same thing as a theorem and move to proof of steak?

Dave Belvedere  24:33

It is they would have to change how the chain would not have the chain, well, how the miners would operate. So the actual software that the miners run. One of the things with Bitcoin is there are very big miner groups now. So there’s a lot of sort of power in these groups because they don’t want the status quo to change. Because they they’re making they’re making money. So proof of work, works for those miners. Yeah. And so you have to convince like majority of the miners or like 90% of the miners that this is the way forward. Otherwise, what will happen is you’ll get a hard fork. So you’ll potentially see if you’ve looked at sort of some of the crypto you’ll see like, Bitcoin classic and a theorem classic. Yeah, these are hard forks of the chains where miners have just disagreed. Okay, and so, you know, a group of miners went one way. And other group of miners went the other way. People yeah. Always soiling it.

Tim Hughes  25:34

Humans always do. Okay, so, um, because with that, I mean, it looked like such a big change for Ethereum that Bitcoin might have its days numbered, like, Is that a fair assumption?

Dave Belvedere  25:44

I think so. Like, I think bitcoins done really good stuff and trying to like break into the businesses and operate as like, Hey, here’s a digital asset coin and sort of challenge the status quo that was previously that it’s days to look, you know, pretty, pretty bleak. In terms of future it is just a coin, and it’s just a digital asset. And you’ve got other sort of crypto currencies like Ethereum that operate as a coin, but then also have these decentralised exchanges, as you know, on chain games that you can play and like, do stuff with, they’ve building out an entire ecosystem over top of them. So they’ve now got what what gets referred to as layer two chains. So chains that operate on Ethereum. So you can bridge assets, I can take what I’ve got on a theorem and hold it up to this layer two chain, and that layer two chain is secured by Ethereum. So typically, you’d like to take arbitrage, for example, it’s a really popular layer to chain on a theorem, what they do is they’ve got their own. They’re a centralised chain. So the way that they validate and sequence blocks is controlled by off chain labs. But what they do is when they’ve got a bunch of blocks, they roll them all up. So they have a rollup mechanism. And they send that data back down as a transaction on layer one. And so when it gets committed into layer one, I can essentially rebuild the layer two chain from just layer one. And that’s where I sort of think Ethereum is going to head towards the future, is that a Ethereum , what we call layer, layer one will end up being more of a security mechanism, rather than sort of what exists today with DEXIS and coins, that will still be around, but I think the majority of us will start to go towards layer two and potentially even layer three, because they can upscale the amount of transactions they can handle. So that’s, that’s the other one. That’s pretty key, if this was going to take over sort of like, a digital asset is how many transactions you can compute per second. So you know, take Visa, for example, I think can do like, what 4000 transactions a second. And so yeah, that sort of puts a minimum requirement on how many transactions you can compute per second, in order to like, not really notice, it’s like you don’t notice, like when you tap a credit card to go pay a delay of like, hang on, gotta mine that block.

Gene Tunny  28:22

This is where we need quantum computers. And are they, are they something that will actually happen?

Dave Belvedere  28:28

Potentially, yeah, it depends on like, what gets used. So hashing is always a weird one for quantum computers, because hashes are typically not vulnerable to, I guess, you know, Shor’s algorithm, which says, basically, sort of at a high level, anything that’s secured by, say, just a cryptographic algorithm, you can break with Shor’s algorithm. Yes, yeah. it all up. So cryptography today depends on the fact that when I make like input equal output, if I have to break that output, it’s a brute force attack. So I have to just iterate through all possible inputs to try and find what input gave me that output. It depends on that that is pretty much impossible. You need a lot of resources. And it’s going to take a lot of time. Not to say it’s not impossible, but it’s so far out of just, it’s 100 years to like, try and work out what this input equals that output, that it’s just not worth it. So that’s what fundamentally secures all cryptography today in those sort of algorithms. What the concern with quantum is, is that you’ll be able to do that a lot quicker. Yeah, but with hashes, not so much. It’s still just run through how the hashes work.

Gene Tunny  29:56

Right? Okay. Yeah, fair enough. I had another had another question about this proof of work versus proof of stake. One. Criticism I heard at the time when this merge occurred was at the merge, like the merge. Yeah. Was that Well, the great thing about Bitcoin and I think I had Yeah, I had a guest on the show, who was a Bitcoin enthusiast, and he was also a writer of thrillers. Lars Emmerich. I think it was, yeah. It was interesting. Guest fun. Yeah. All right, is excellent. And former fighter pilot and oh, yeah, writes thrillers. And he’s, we talked about crypto among other things. And he’s a big Bitcoin enthusiast because he sees the risk of he’s concerned about the US dollar hyperinflation, etc. So we had a good conversation on that. But he was saying the great thing about Bitcoin is decentralised, the proof of work means that there’s benefits from having proof of work, and it is, I guess what I’m asking is Ethereum  still crypto, is it still, I mean, there’s moving to proof of stake move away from the benefits of having to do that proof of work.

Dave Belvedere  31:23

I mean, oh, yeah. Yeah. No, not Not really. So okay. It is still crypto. It’s still cryptographically you know, okay, locked in and secured, as is still decentralised, still decentralised.Yeah, so absolutely. So it’s even some people can argue it’s even becoming more decentralised than say, Bitcoin. So Bitcoin itself is moving towards centralization, because you have the big miner groups that start to control more and more of the chain, sort of moving towards a centralised figure. And so that’s that 51% attack that we talked about earlier, with moving to a proof of stake in order to control or sort of start to centralise the chain, I have to control 51% of all Ethereum. So every single ETH that’s ever been issued, I need to hold 51% of that, which is, you know, starting to become trillions and trillions of dollars. Yeah, so it is less viable for me to actually try to attack at the network. And yeah, it’s sort of proof of stake kind of starts to push more of a distributed type of feel to it doesn’t stop big groups coming together and like, obviously, trying to pull the chain towards centralization. But I’d probably argue that proof of stake makes that harder than say, proof of work.

Gene Tunny  32:51

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  32:57

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with Adept Economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice. We can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world. You can get in touch via our website, http://www.adept economics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  33:26

Now back to the show.

Tim Hughes  33:31

Can I say what would happen with layer one, layer two, if someone was to get that 51% ownership? Do they then become the layer one? They’ve got their? They’ve got the conch as it were, you know, so is that where the layer one status is? Is like yeah, because the majority.

Dave Belvedere  33:49

so yeah, pretty much like yeah, if somebody can control, you know, the, the layer one and you’ve got layer two, and layer three is built on top of it. They call the shots, they call it. Yeah, they effectively have the control of the network.

Tim Hughes  34:02

Because it’s an interesting part of how this seems to be unfolding is that the decentralised nature seems to be one of the big attractions and I’m sure it still is. But as far as confidence in the currency, it seems to be the downfall of, so it’s it looks quite possible that so for instance, Reserve Bank of Australia or Bank of England may want to bring up their own cryptocurrency which would then be centralised that would be layer two as you were saying so if they did it with Ethereum it would for instance, you know, hypothetically will come on as a layer two and be centralised. Yeah. What are the is that the direction we’re heading in? Is that seem to be most likely?

Dave Belvedere  34:47

Yeah. Maybe. I think because they would want to control the chain. So one of the reasons I guess that a lot of people are still You know, fairly excited is that cryptocurrencies do bring some anonymity to the game. You’re just identified by a wallet, not by name, address or anything like that. Yeah, right, sort of what the banks need. So you don’t get KYC in exchanges, KYC so know your customer.

Gene Tunny  35:19

Yeah, that’s the stop money laundering. Dodgy transactions, technically, they’re supposed to know their customers. And this is where some banks have got into trouble. Yeah, he is that they actually didn’t know their customers and all of the money laundering through the Westpac ATMs. I don’t know if you remember that.

Dave Belvedere  35:39

It was it Westpac? There was a little I remember stuff with Commbank, they’ll doing.

Gene Tunny  35:43

maybe it was Commbank, I actually have to check that in the show notes. So I don’t get sued. But I thought it was Westpac is one of those four. Yeah. So

Tim Hughes  35:58

Good to know, because I’ve got to deliver a CAPTCHA apparently. So. Good thing to know.

Dave Belvedere  36:03

Yeah. So So currently, sort of government regulations, sort of say like, Okay, if you are transferring currencies and things like that, you have to KYC. So you have the customer have to provide details. Yeah, and one of the great things about digital coins is, you know, you just identified by a wallet on the network. So, you know, is that really you? I don’t know. So, you know, this is where, yeah, recently I had to go through tax in a year, which is, which was always fun. And yeah, you got to provide like, his wallet addresses, these are all the wallet addresses I touch. These are all the transactions I made to, obviously, ATO, so they can make sure that you are getting taxed correctly.

Tim Hughes  36:48

That’s a really good point. I hadn’t thought of that. So how does this work with a tax return? Like, you know, with your transaction, what you own what you dont own.

Dave Belvedere  36:56

Every transaction is considered an investment or sell, buy or sell order, basically. So cryptocurrency still is considered, well, it’s a high risk investment, right? It is extremely volatile. And yeah, and there are many dodgy things that do happen on chains. And, you know, one of the classic examples is you can’t even trust exchanges, because FTX, for example, they were messing around with customer funds and things like that.

Tim Hughes  37:27

So yeah, sorry I was always going to ask at some point, now is obviously that time, I guess, what happened?

Dave Belvedere  37:33

So sort of the story that we got for the collapse of FTX customers are obviously putting in the money FTX I believe that the time offered, you know, futures options, traditional sort of trading markets that people could play around with. However, they also sort of had a behind the doors deal with one of their sub companies, I think is Ella Mira or something, something similar to that, where they will lend them a bunch of money at them was backed by customer money from an FTX, FTX perspective. And they played around with it and lost, I think it was they lost billions and billions of dollars. And so when customers started to lose confidence in FTX, I can’t remember what the particular event was. And they tried to withdraw their money. They couldn’t, because FTX didn’t have that money anymore. So and that’s sort of what led to the collapse. And what Yeah, ultimately forced the US government to start to step in. And that’s where I think we’ll start to see more changes. I think crypto is here to stay. But in its current form, probably not. I think governments will start to get involved. And yeah, you’ll start to see sort of a traditional securities market approach, I think, come over the top of it. So yeah, whether you’re more KYC or, you know, more rules around what you can and can’t do in particular countries, which makes it quite hard because there is no one thing controlling crypto, and it’s all decentralised. So it’s like, well, if we see you’re coming from the US, you gotta use this. If we see you’re coming from Australia, you got to do this, which, yes, is it’s hard to make that work well.

Tim Hughes  39:27

So that was a failure of the exchange, not the currency.

Dave Belvedere  39:30

Yeah, that’s, that’s purely a failure of the exchange. So the people running the exchange are doing Yeah. Yeah, questionable. Questionable things.

Gene Tunny  39:38

 Yeah, because they should have just been exchanging or holding that money on behalf of their customers. And they were going to use that to purchase cryptocurrencies were they?

Dave Belvedere  39:51

Yeah, so effectively, like, yeah, they would purchase cryptocurrencies and then they would sell it on so they, you know, if starting up they would prop we’ll be running at a bit of a deficit or like have a raw, somebody’s given them a bunch of money too, and have that initial crypto. Yeah. And then yeah, as people come in, and they, like, give money for that crypto, obviously at a particular market margin. Yeah, they start to be able to add more crypto and sort of become profitable in that regard.

Gene Tunny  40:22

Yeah. But they went in, did they go and lend that money that they should have held in trust, or they shouldn’t they were looking out for customers to that. That other company was run by his ex girlfriend. By Sam Bankman-Fried’s ex-girlfriend. Yeah. Yeah, it was a daughter of an economist, economist. MIT economist, I think, I think he’s a professor at MIT or one of those schools. Really good school. Yeah, that was a debacle. The other thing I hear about is the rug pull. Rebuild, goes on about rug pulls. And when coffees Zilla, you probably follow Him or you say he’s really sceptical of crypto. Have you seen coffee Zilla? I will flick you some videos.

Tim Hughes  41:07

I love the fact that rug pulled got a conversation. I’ve never heard of this. About this.

Dave Belvedere  41:13

It’s a funny term. So obviously there with with anything new and like, Give somebody a little bit of anonymity, they just go wild. You know, there are at the moment, a lot of yeah, a lot of good actors that people are trying to, you know, accomplish and create new things. But there are also a lot of bad actors. So classical pump and dump schemes are not uncommon. And yeah, one of the other ones is what gets what got its own name, which is a row pool. So let’s just say, you know, there’s, there’s a, there’s a token that I’m releasing, people buying that token, so they’re sending me money, and I’ve given them the token back, and then on the owner, cool, I can just like swipe all that money out of the account, and then that token is now worthless. That’s, that’s effectively a rug pull. So the people who created that, that have control of that sort of asset, because the assets on an Ethereum are controlled by contracts. So if you’ve got the private key to the contract, you effectively control the contract. And you can just take all the money that’s in that contract, and then the token then becomes worthless.

Tim Hughes  42:20

Actually, on that note, so this, this brings up the question I was going to ask, who started these? Obviously, they’re, you know, whoever is behind bitcoin or Ethereum? Are they known?

Dave Belvedere  42:33

So, Bitcoin, no. There is a famous paper that is written but no one knows the true identity. Within Ethereum, it’s Vitalik. So he traded a theorem and then it’s now run by the Ethereum foundation. So the people who sort of operate and try to improve the chain and things like that are known as a foundation whereas Bitcoin it’s, it’s murky, who started.

Tim Hughes  43:00

It’s very James Bond, the whole thing of like, you know, having something like Bitcoin with, you know, who’s behind it is fascinating that it’s anonymous at that level with potentially a lot of power.

Gene Tunny  43:11

Well, it was this person with a pseudonym was it’s a Satoshi

Dave Belvedere  43:16

Satoshi. It started with Okay, yeah, but yeah, Satoshi, something

Gene Tunny  43:19

like that. I’ll put links in the show notes. And what they did I think they published a white paper. So they publish the code or the rules for Bitcoin and then people read it and thought, actually, yeah, this would, could work. This is a great idea. Let’s go ahead with it. So it’s obviously a computer scientist of some kind, potentially. Yeah, I think is there an Australian who claims that he invented it? I think, as well?

Dave Belvedere  43:44

Yeah. There are claims that the Australian is Satoshi. Ah, right. Yeah, so sort of he released the white paper with the chain already there. So one of the things that you have to do to I guess, you know, start a chain, is you got to create the Genesis block. So the first block that then things build on top of, and typically, if you’re going to create the Genesis block, well, you might as well just create a good fundamental base. So I think, I think Satoshi has like, a ridiculous amount of bitcoin, because you’re effectively controlled. The base asset right at the start, and then you sort of like, give yourself as much as you need as you’re building these blocks, like you might release the chain to the public, say, and it’s got like, 200-300 blocks. So you’ve got all the rewards for those blocks are doing no work, no competition, but now you’re going to release the chain. And so I think, from memory, reading papers, like everyone knows which coins because obviously the coins effectively get numbered based on the block that they were minted in.

Tim Hughes  44:52

And on that note, Dave, there’s a certain number of Bitcoin and then that’s it. Is that right? And was that determined at the very beginning?

Dave Belvedere  45:00

yeah, so that would have been determined by the actual algorithm that that got generated for Bitcoin.

Tim Hughes  45:05

How many other?

Gene Tunny  45:07

21 million, isn’t it? Yeah, I’ll put it in the show notes anyway.

Tim Hughes  45:14

So that’s part of the strength of it, though, that it’s a finite number.

Dave Belvedere  45:18

 It is a finite number. Yeah. So it’s like it is the strength. So once everything’s been mined, you know, that’s it, then it just becomes transactions passing between to and fro.

Tim Hughes  45:28

You need a level of scarcity for it to have a value.

Dave Belvedere  45:31

Scarcity will drive the wealth of the actual element up, or potentially not, depending on which way it flows. But yeah, that’s, that’s the sort of appeal for it is that it’s running out, so if you’re going to grab it.

Tim Hughes  45:45

And Is that comparable to how many Ethereum there are in the in circulation? No. I knew as I was asking the question, this is not right.

Dave Belvedere  45:57

So what gets classified as Ethereum? Has, it does have a max value, but it’s quite big.

Tim Hughes  46:05

So sorry, I mean, this is coming from a very base level of understanding. But I’m sort of fascinated by this. So how does that work? Then with Ethereum? How many? Like what do you call? So Bitcoin is a Bitcoin? Because Bitcoin isn’t what Ethereum? Worked with? ETH. So yes, okay. Yes. So the number of ETH isn’t determined, it’s not finite.

Dave Belvedere  46:28

It, there is a there is a finite, but they can always add more. So it’s, yeah, it’s backed by a contract. And you can always change that contract. Sort of as an example. Like, right at the start, it was ETH. So ETH, is the classical. Everyone knows, sort of what gets defaulted to, technically, it’s not ETH anymore. It’s actually wrapped ETH. So three or four years ago, I think, the foundation or or one of the one of the partners that works with Ethereum, closely, they published the standard that every token should follow, because a token is really just a contract on chain, and you’re calling methods on that contract to say meant, you know, how many does this address have? If everyone is, you know, everyone just goes, I’m going to create a new contract, that API of like, what do I call to, like mean to what do I call the burn could change from token to token. So what got published was what was being classified as ERC. 20 So it’s a standard that every token follows. So an ERC 20 token follows that standard. ETH at the time, didn’t meet that standard. And so they created a contract that did create that didn’t meet the standard called wrapped ETH and you can transfer ETH and wrapped ETH at a one to one. So I can have like eight ETH and automatically make it a wrap ETH, okay? It’s just like taking that asset and making it different. But it’s still what you know, it’s still what we call ETH on chain.

Tim Hughes  48:13

Yeah, okay. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  48:14

Here’s another basic question that just occurred to me. So a Bitcoin. I’m not sure what its value at the moment, but is it around 20,000 USD?

Dave Belvedere  48:23

26,00US. 

Gene Tunny  48:27

Okay, yep. Yep, can I have a fraction of a Bitcoin? Can I or, but I How does that work? I mean, all because I thought if it’s in a wallet, does it have to be one Bitcoin? Or can it be gonna be a fraction?

Dave Belvedere  48:40

It can be a fraction of Bitcoin. So typically, with the tokens they’ll have? Like, we call it decimals on chain, but it’s really just precise. Okay, gotcha. So like, I think Bitcoin has a precision of six, I think six or eight. I’d have to double check that. So which means I can have point 000001 of a bitcoin. Right. Okay. Yeah, as long as it’s within that, that precision element, it doesn’t matter. You can you can still operate and work on it. Gotcha. Yeah, so as an example, ETH has a precision of 18. Right. So one eath, actually on chain is one times 10 to the power of 18. That’s what it looks like on chain.

Tim Hughes  49:23

Okay. And what’s a ETH worth nowadays? I think it’s around 1600 USD at the moment. Okay. So, as far as affordability goes in a single as against a Bitcoin.

Dave Belvedere  49:37

An ETH is more affordable.

Gene Tunny  49:40

Okay, can I ask you about smart contracts? So as an economist and speaking with other economists, and just reading about crypto and, and all of that, I mean, there seems to be increasingly there’s a view that will crypto might that There’s a lot of scepticism about crypto itself, but they’re saying, well, the blockchain is great, and smart contracts are great. So, can you explain what a smart contract is? And it’s linked to Ethereum? Is that correct? Yeah. How does that work?

Dave Belvedere  50:13

Yeah. So, um, a smart contract is really just code that’s on the chain. And so one of the one of the sort of, I think, very fundamental things that makes a theorem quite good is that I can store more than just the coin on the chain, I can create code, I can put it on chain, and then that’s the code forever. And so that code can no longer be changed, which does lead to some interesting problems, like, Oh, crap, that’s a bug. How do I actually, you know, patch and fix that bug? And you know, that’s, that’s kind of, we’ve seen consequences of that already. Yeah, somebody’s found a security flaw and just like, stolen millions and millions of dollars from contracts, or from DEXIS in particular. So they’re sort of the common hacks that are in theorem. So whenever you see somebody’s hacked, say, a bridge, or a Dex, that’s typically somebody’s found a flaw in the code and been able to exploit that code. Yeah, so a contract is written in solidity for the most part. So solidity is the most common language used for writing smart contracts. And it’s just, it’s just really code at that point. It’s just structured code. So similar to obviously different but like, similar to as if I was to read a C programme. So well, you know, a Ross programme or anything like that. It’s just common, it’s just code. So that’s why if you’ve ever heard coders law on some of the sort of the defences of hacks, that’s, that’s where that’s coming from, is that this is written as code. And the code allowed me to take millions of dollars, therefore, am I really responsible for it? My view is yes.

Tim Hughes  52:07

That is not a strong defence.

Gene Tunny  52:12

It’s like, if you get a million dollars deposited into your bank account, you can’t go out and buy a Ferrari.

Tim Hughes  52:20

The doors open, so I went in and took what I could carry. With that, as well, because I was zooming out a little bit as well. Dave? Yeah, you know, financial markets. There are so many issues like that may influence like a human emotions, like greed, panic, fear, these things happen all the time, you know, cyclical, or whatever it may be. And banks get robbed, you know, like, you know, cash was stolen, whatever. This doesn’t seem to be answering too many sort of problems, you know, they can get hacked. Yeah. So as far as, as a few questions that I guess, because the number one thing with all of that is trust, in my view is like, you know, if people trust something more and more, then it’s a stronger sort of system, and less likely to be driven by greed, panic, fear, etc. What was the pros and cons, if you like, of crypto, like if we ultimately heading towards something where we might be able to have more trust in a financial system than we currently have?

Dave Belvedere  53:23

Yeah, potentially. So I think if the people in on this so you know, sort of Ethereum, you know, who’s who’s running the show to agree.

Tim Hughes  53:35

So there’s trust there as well, compared to some phantom person with a white paper? Yeah. is less, less trustworthy, I guess. But yeah. Yeah.

Dave Belvedere  53:44

Sort of, yeah. Human nature, we sort of trust. If we can see somebody like that. That’s actually a real person. Yeah, there rather than like talking to a computer screen, we’ll be like, Yeah, who are you actually really talking to on the other side of that? So I think inherently, we will trust, obviously, the traditional market setups more because they are run by people. And that’s where, hopefully, you know, something like Ethereum can start to come in and sort of do that. But while you still have people who can misuse, I guess, the environment of like, these rug pools, and, you know, just doing pump and dump schemes and things like that, it does get hard to trust. Yeah, is everything on there. Really a scam or not? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So it’s sort of a double whammy where it’s like, you know, for myself personally, it’s like, yeah, I trust a theorem like I don’t think the Ethereum ecosystem or anything like that. It’s going to go away anytime soon. The changes that they’re making to it a sensible and things like that, and you can actually see and talk to the people at conferences. However, that contracts and like opportunities that then can be a part of Ethereum, yeah, that’s where it gets a bit dodgy. And that’s where you need to sort of like, okay, I trust this exchange more than the others, you know, uni swap, for example has been around on Ethereum for so long. Well, probably since, uh, since it started, right. And they’re, they’re a decentralised automatic market maker. I trust that, you know, they’ve been around for so long, you know, probably so many people have tried to hack their pools. Nothing’s really happened to it. So if I’m dealing with any swap as a DEX, I’m pretty, pretty confident that nothing’s bad’s going to happen, other than I might not get the best price on chain for my tokens.

Tim Hughes  55:45

But that’s the most likely weak link in that chain is the exchanges or that the middle the people in the middle between the consumer and the Ethereum safe using us? 

Dave Belvedere  55:56

Yes. And so sort of the users of Ethereum people are actually creating their own what we call DAPS. So decentralised applications. Yeah, that’s that’s where I think that that trust will start to fade. And and because crypto itself is, you know, it’s it’s quite volatile hasn’t had the best sort of, sort of time it’s been ups being down. It’s dumped to come back and don’t again. Yeah, a lot of people I think a lot of people look at and go cool, that might be a good way to, you know, make easy money because it’s just like going left, right and centre. But it can also backfire very quickly. Yeah. Where, where it sort of blurs the line is that it’s not treated as a traditional investment. Like because it is digitalized. And I can interact with it. And I can like, spend money on it. Like people treat it as money. But it’s really volatile money. 

Tim Hughes  56:51

If you’re willing to take advice from Matt Damon and Kiefer Sutherland. I mean, like, it’s so you know, yeah, they are very confident of it being a good move. 

Gene Tunny  57:01

Yeah. I’ve got a couple of two more questions. Dave. We’re probably getting close to time. Have you got a couple more Tim?

Tim Hughes  57:07

I’ve? No, I’m good. Thank you. I’ve been I’ve been enjoying as it’s gone on. And my big ones are gone. Thank you.

Gene Tunny  57:16

Yeah, I’ve learned a lot. It’s, it’s great. Would you have any examples of DAPS? That what are some daps that we might want to look at just so we can understand what what they are? 

Dave Belvedere  57:28

Oh, yeah, um, a couple of pretty, pretty fun ones. So there’s a game called wizards and dragons. Okay, it’s a it’s a decentralised application, but it’s also a game. It’s pretty fun. It released, I think, a couple of years ago. And what it is, is, you meant an NF T, and it has a chance to be a wizard, or dragon. And then based off of, if it’s a wizard, it can, like interact with, you can stake it. So you can actually say to the contract, hey, here’s my wizard, which is staking, and it might earn certain rewards. So there’s a coin that’s associated with the game as well. So there’s a coin called windy. So it’s wizards and dragons. And that coin can then be used to spend on the contracts to interact with the actual game and stuff like that. So it’s not like I’m continually having to feed ETH it’s just like gas fees at that point. Or if you get a dragon like you have chances to steal wizards when they go and stake and non stake . It’s, it’s it’s pretty, pretty fun.

Gene Tunny  58:36

This is a computer game, is it?

Dave Belvedere  58:38

Yeah, it’s a game on chain. Yeah. So it’s a game that actually happens within the blockchain again, So the game is happening per transaction. So I send a transaction to do something with the game, like the contracts that make up the game are there. And then I like create a transaction to say, stake, my wizard, and then there’s a chance if dragons are staked, that my wizard goes to a dragon.

Gene Tunny  59:08

But okay, I’m gonna ask a really dumb question. But do I see a wizard on the screen? Or do I see dragons?

Dave Belvedere  59:15

Yeah, you can see both. So like, depending on what you’ve meant it, you get an NFT, which is a type of token so a non-fungible token so yeah, they were the ones that got talked about, I think, why the last couple of years because like, yeah, okay, and then the punks and the apes they’re all worth stupid amount of money. 

Tim Hughes  59:37

So these are basically like, it’s an in the form of like having something that’s identifiable as being unique, even though it can be copied. So taking the Mona Lisa as an example of one painting, but there’s millions of copies. And so it’s basically a digital form a non fungible token or nifty I’ve heard them called Tim Ferriss calls them nifties. But so base Having something that can be identified as being the original and owned by a person.

Dave Belvedere  1:00:06

Yeah. And so we see that as like a token. It’s just really like a coin is not quite an NFT. Because there are many coins. But it’s like an NFT, sort of superset. There’s only like one coin that represents this thing. And so yeah, so like, it’s just a token. And yeah, that that has things. So like, I can go interact with the contract, you know, meant for a bunch of ETH. So that’s sort of how they get their startup is like, hand over like point zero seven ETH or point zero five ETH, to mint and have a random chance to generate a wizard or a dragon. And then they all sort of give you that NFT. So you’ll get that token back. And then yeah, you can use that token to then interact with the rest of their contract on the actual Ethereum chain.

Gene Tunny  1:00:54

Right. Okay. And are they used in these massive multiplayer games as well, online?

Dave Belvedere  1:01:01

The coins could be. Yeah. So I think they’re starting to come out. I think I read recently with like, digital coins. Yeah. But to sort of looking to go to be fair, that sort of already was kind of going there place anyway. So like, I could pay a bunch of money to the Microsoft store and have like, xbox credits. That was sort of already the lien. And then yeah, what, you know, one of the good things that has come about sort of what’s happening with blockchains? And things like that is Yeah, sort of companies are realising, actually, that’s, that’s a pretty nifty way of like, dealing with this sort of securing that data and making sure like, oh, okay, we can’t accidentally do something. Like, you can’t go back and try and change those records. It’s sort of there permanently. And you can follow a transaction at a time. For bookkeeping purposes, or, yeah.

Gene Tunny  1:01:59

I’m gonna have to come back to smart contracts in a future episode, because I think that’s probably its own episode, is it? 

Dave Belvedere  1:02:07

There’s a lot yeah, there’s a lot, a lot of things to talk about, I guess, in contracts, and yeah, sort of, you know, that’s how that how they get built, you know, how they sort of interact. And you know, that’s where these bugs can can arise. And, you know, people might accidentally do something and somebody takes money.

Gene Tunny  1:02:27

Yeah. And I’d be fascinated to know who the parties to the contract are. I mean, could Tim and I have a smart contract where if certain conditions are met or if the then Tim transfers Ethereum. To me, so if, I mean, is there a way of programming, it’s so that if it’s, say, let’s take the weather, for example, if the maximum temperature for Brisbane ends up being over 35 degrees on one day in the future, then the smart contract, picks that up, and then transfers, I don’t know, one ETH from me from Tim.

Dave Belvedere  1:03:01

Yeah, it can do. So there’s, there’s a bunch of things that need to happen and be in place for that. But yeah, you can store like money. So you can store ETM with the smart contract, because it is itself really just an address. And then yeah, you like a transaction is usually always going to be the trigger just can’t do stuff automatically. You always have to trigger it with a transaction. And yeah, you can just be like, Oh, okay, cool.

Gene Tunny  1:03:27

All you have to trigger it with a transaction. Okay. So it’s not, it’s not going to automatically. It’s not a way of automating transactions. And I understood that.

Dave Belvedere  1:03:35

Yeah. Yeah, everything that happens on the chain has to have triggered from a transaction. Okay, so transaction might trigger a bunch of things to happen. Yeah, and interact with a bunch of stuff on chain. But yes, every everything will come through from a certain transaction has triggered this thing, which might then trigger events, but, you know, cascade of roll on.

Gene Tunny  1:04:00

Okay, I might have to look at that in a future episode. I promise. I’ve only got one more question. You got any more, but,

Tim Hughes  1:04:07

you know, I just want to comment, um, not surprisingly, to hear that wizards and dragons entered the conversation seems to be a natural progression from the smartest of the smart in, you know, the 80s or whatever it is, whatever they’ve come through to this point. And no doubt behind some of this technology or this, these theories.

Dave Belvedere  1:04:31

We’re all we’re all nerds on the inside. Right. So

Tim Hughes  1:04:33

yeah, but it’s great. It’s sort of like a bit there’s a human element to that as well, which is nice to see.

Gene Tunny  1:04:39

Great. Final question, Dave. For you. What are the use cases for crypto Why do you think it’s good to for you personally to be in crypto?

Dave Belvedere  1:04:51

It’s it’s a fairly exciting field. So I’m I’m a software engineer by trade. I studied as a computer systems engineer And it’s can be difficult to try and see how technology technology progresses through the years. So that, you know, unless you’re sort of, say deep in with Google and working on their, you know, bleeding edge stuff. For the most part, it’s all kind of pretty much the same. And so it’s pretty cool to see something. So you know, there’s this whole blockchain theories and the cryptographic proofs and stuff. I think we’re around since I think the 80s. So it’s always interesting to see how that is getting transformed and evolved into something new. And then yeah, then being used and sort of one of one of the cool things, I think that’s coming, a part of this, it’s sort of attaching itself to sort of a wider push of everyone should be and I think, you know, I think if you look at the world today, most of the kids growing up today are very computer literate. And it is sort of continuing to push that, like, computers are just going to become more and more part of it. And I think the common school like programming, or reading or writing code, should be sort of start to become one of the fundamental things just because of the heavy involvement that we start to have. So understanding why things are doing things, right. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  1:06:21

Now, the other part of that is your you personally, so assuming I may be incorrect, but I’m assuming you own some crypto of some kind. So do you what are the use cases? Why? What value do you see in having it all? So Lars Emmerich, for example, he’s concerned about the value of the US dollar, he’s concerned about all of the money printing, he’s concerned about hyperinflation, what are the what are the use cases? Or what would motivate you to have crypto?

Dave Belvedere  1:06:52

Yeah, it’s, I guess, you know, personally, I’m pretty, pretty basic. For me, it’s just a fun, high risk investment. So I see it as something that that might pay off. Or it might not. You know, personally, I don’t have a lot of money in it. But it also, because I’m in the area, it helps me like interact with chains. And yeah, play around with like, games, such as, like wizards and dragons. sort of have

Tim Hughes  1:07:18

There as a confession. Yeah. But

Dave Belvedere  1:07:21

I still see it as a very high risk asset. Yeah. Yeah. I’m still relatively young. So to me if I lose, lose what I’ve got, personally, I’ve only got about 20k. There. It’s not gonna hit me hard. Hit me hard in terms of I’m gonna make that back over my lifetime of work. Yeah. But you know if it if it goes and like, whoo, and yeah, all of a sudden that 20k goes to 100k. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  1:07:47

Right. Yeah. 

Tim Hughes  1:07:49

But that’s actually a good point. Because none of this is in any way. investment advice from us. Oh, goodness, exactly. You know, like, it’s not investment advice. And the one thing that gets mentioned all the time, it’s like going to the horse races or something like that, you know, if you’ve got something that you can afford to lose, then go for it, because there’s a high risk investment and see what happens.

Dave Belvedere  1:08:09

I honestly look at this and go, it should be treated as a casino like, yeah, you gotta walk into a casino going, like, I have money. If I lose it, I’m not gonna, like get carried out by security. Yeah. Sounds like you can afford to lose the money. It is. Yeah, extremely high risk. And I think, like, especially now with the sort of scenarios that happened, like the FTX collapse, and you know, some of the other things that are happening there. And like the US government sort of taking notice, or like the SEC, taking notice more parts and like, pulling out rulings and stuff, it will become a little bit of, like, no one is really certain what’s going to happen in the area. Yeah. So it’s probably, you know, at this point still, quite, it’s probably riskier than it was before, because, you know, the SEC might turn around and say no, crypto goodbye, and like, you shut out the entire US market, like, that’s not gonna play well, for crypto.

Tim Hughes  1:09:07

Sec? The Securities

Dave Belvedere  1:09:08

and Exchange.

Gene Tunny  1:09:10

Okay, that’s been terrific. I mean, we’ve learned so much. I mean, I’ve never I’ve been blown away with all this info. And I think it’s helped me understand more what’s going on and it’s dispelled some, or it’s got rid of some ideas or misunderstandings I had. So that’s been really good. Are there any final thoughts? Any final words before we wrap up?

Dave Belvedere  1:09:37

No. Like, yeah, I encourage everyone to like, play around with it. Obviously, I think it’s an interesting technology. I think it’s going to be around for a long time. But in its current form, hard to say. I wish I would probably say I’m confident that as we know crypto today is probably not what we’re gonna see in the future. Yeah, this is sort of the first building block towards something that will become widespread.

Tim Hughes  1:10:08

Terrific. Now Dave, I really appreciate it because so we’ve often talked about this gene and I and it we we have fumbled in the dark somewhat. And I’ve been looking forward to the time where we can get somebody on and talk in depth, as we have done today. So yeah, I’ve really enjoyed that and got a lot from it. So thank you for coming in.

Gene Tunny  1:10:28

Dave Belvedere, thanks so much for your time. Thanks. Right. Hi, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact@economicsexplored.com, or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

1:11:19

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this. To begin your own podcasting journey head on over to obsidian-productions.com.

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au

Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Bitcoin & books w/ author & ex-fighter pilot Lars Emmerich – EP157

Author and ex-fighter pilot Lars Emmerich explains why he’s so excited about the future of Bitcoin. And you’ll hear how he responds to the criticism that Bitcoin mining wastes a lot of  energy. Lars also tells show host Gene Tunny about his experience as an author operating in a disrupted book industry. Lars explains how the internet can give authors a better deal than traditional book royalties, and he tells us about the importance of Facebook Ads for acquiring new readers.   

Notes:

a) This episode was recorded on Tuesday 13 September 2022, two days before the Ethereum Merge with Lars and Gene discuss in this episode.

b) This episode contains general information only and nothing in this episode should be taken as financial or investment advice. Please see a professional financial adviser regarding investment decision making specific to your needs. 

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google Podcasts, Apple PodcastsSpotify, and Stitcher.

About this episode’s guest: Lars Emmerich

Lars Emmerich is a retired fighter pilot, entrepreneur, investor, and musician. He writes about good guys with a bad streak and bad guys with a few redeeming qualities.

He is the author of the million-selling Sam Jameson series. He lives in Colorado with his family and his neuroses. He’s either hard at work on the next novel in the series, or he’s procrastinating. Usually the latter.

Stop by Lars Emmerich Books to pick up a free digital copy of The Incident: Inferno Rising, the first installment in the Sam Jameson series.

Check out Lars’s author page on Amazon

Links relevant to the conversation

The controversy over Tim Ferriss’s deal with Amazon Publishing for the 4-Hour Chef: Timothy Ferriss’ ‘The 4-Hour Chef’ stirs up trouble

What is hash power and why would anyone buy it?

Financial Times article – The Merge: a blockchain revolution or just more hype? (pay-walled)

Book on Bitcoin recommended by Lars: The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking

Transcript: Bitcoin & books w/ author & ex-fighter pilot Lars Emmerich – EP157

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:00

Coming up on economics explored.

Lars Emmerich  00:01

The bull case for Bitcoin is that at some moment in the future, we will have given the world the last dollar the world cares to have, cares the hold…

Gene Tunny  00:18

Welcome to the Economics Explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist based in Brisbane, Australia and I’m a former Australian Treasury official. This is episode 157 on books and Bitcoin. My guest is Lars Emmerich, a popular author and investor in Bitcoin. His bio on his Amazon page reads, Lars Emmerich is a retired fighter pilot, entrepreneur, investor, and musician. He writes about good guys with a bad streak, and bad guys with a few redeeming qualities. Is the author of the million selling Sam Jamison series. He lives in Colorado with his family and his neuroses. In this episode, you’ll hear from Lars and why he’s such a supporter of Bitcoin. You’ll hear how he responds to the criticism that Bitcoin mining wastes a lot of energy. Lars provides some great information and makes some thought provoking points. Nothing in this episode should be interpreted as financial or investment advice specific to you. Obviously, you’d want to think about whether it makes sense for you to invest in something so risky and so difficult to value. Do you believe the story that Bitcoin enthusiasts tell about it potentially becoming a global reserve currency? Let me know what you think. I’d love to hear from you. Please get in touch, either by email or voice message. You’ll find my contact details in the show notes along with relevant info and links. Right oh, now for my conversation with Lars Emmerich. About online book publishing in Bitcoin. Thanks to my audio engineer, Josh Crotts for his assistance in producing this episode. I hope you enjoy it. Lars Emmerich, welcome to the programme.

Lars Emmerich  02:04

Thank you, Gene. Pleasure to be here.

Gene Tunny  02:06

Yes, good to be chatting with you, Lars, I’m keen to speak about a couple of things, at least that your you’ve been involved in. So you’re successful author, so I’m keen to chat with you about your experience in the book industry, because that’s an industry that’s been disrupted substantially over the last few decades because of the internet. So I’m interested in how you thrive in that industry. And also, I’m keen to get your thoughts on crypto and Bitcoin and, and other cryptos to the extent that you’ve been involved in them, because that’s, that’s a sector in which a lot is happening. And there’s been a lot of big news lately. So be keen to keen to chat with you about those things. So, to begin with, could you tell us a bit about your experience as an author, please Lars.

Lars Emmerich  02:56

I think I formed the idea of becoming an author when I read my first Tom Clancy novel, back when I was probably 20 Years Old. I was just fascinated by the way these seemingly mundane and separate storylines, wove themselves together into this amazing, multifaceted story. And fortunately, I had nothing to say at 20 or 23. So I was off doing other things, flying fighters for 20 years and, and learning about life. And I came back to it at a time when I was spending most of my days in airports and hotel rooms. And so I wanted something productive to do with my, quote unquote, free time. And I just started writing, I had writing professionally. Not as a novelist, but for business purposes. And I, I think I was writing a piece on a particular bit of sewage processing equipment. And I had one of those, what in the world am I doing with my life moments, and I decided if I was going to write words, I was going to write my own stories. And I dove in and really enjoyed it. And I quickly discovered that the publishing landscape was definitely in the process of being disrupted by at the time, nearly Amazon but Barnes and Noble and a couple of other retailers had a significant online presence as well. And I never, I never had it in my mind to pursue a traditional publishing deal, because it just didn’t seem like a good deal. The royalty percentage, the effort was the same. You were very much beholden to the degree of interest your publisher took in your work or didn’t take in your work. And generally speaking, if your author career is to go anyplace, you’re going to be the one pushing, you’re going to be the one doing the work. And so if that’s the case, I would much rather be on the 94% and of the revenue stream than on the 6% end of revenue stream, as it were,

Gene Tunny  05:08

Sorry, what do you mean exactly by that exactly Lars. Sorry just so I understand that you’d rather be on the 94%, than the 6%, oh, you get 94% of it rather than just 6%.

Lars Emmerich  05:19

That’s an a normal publishing deal like a traditional publishing deal, author royalties, and this changes per deal, for sure. But at the time I was making this decision, the number in my head that I had researched was about 7% of the book, royalties would find their way in your pocket, at some, some moment, well beyond when the books were sold, and the tallies were conducted. And all of the rights subtractions were, taken from your royalties. And the way that I had approached it originally was just to publish directly via the online retailers. I realised quickly that this was just a slight adjustment to the existing agreement, they paid you a bit more, but you’re still pretty much at their whim. And it was still up to you. And so I believe in 2018, I decided to sell directly to readers. And so while my books remain available on Amazon, they’re also mainly sold directly to readers, readers just buy directly from my website. That’s where the 94% revenue comes in. There are some there, there are some realities associated with credit card processing, and a few other services that are mandatory, that take it take their cut, but by and large, the, the gross revenues are yours. Now against that is the advertising costs, that’s required to make any business enterprise go. And that becomes that can become, it’s extremely time consuming. And it also consumes a huge portion of the revenue. So the margins in business are no better than they really ever have been. For most authors. But the landscape as you as you’ve alluded to, has definitely changed.

Gene Tunny  07:17

Yeah. Look, there are a few things I want to follow up on. And this is, it’s so fascinating stuff with advertising. What’s the best channel for you? Or for authors? In generally, I’ll just say anything about that? Is it Facebook? Is it is it is a Google ads, do you have any thoughts on that?

Lars Emmerich  07:38

I do, absolutely. I’ve tested, if there’s a place you can advertise and sell books are most likely tested. And far and away the most profitable, has been historically Facebook ads. And this is changing now. Because the way that Facebook worked, relied on very granular user preference data, Facebook was able to see a good bit of what you bought as a consumer. And so it could, it could understand Facebook could with a good bit of detail which authors a person liked to read. And you could and we’re talking about the big luminaries in each genre, the big names, the biggest names in the genres. And if your books were similar to those other authors’ books, you could reach fans of the big names in your genre, via the data that Facebook had on the number of people and who they were who really enjoyed these authors. Now, last year, at some point, Apple said, Facebook, you’re very welcome for all the data you’ve been getting for free and building this billion dollar business on top of, however, we’re building our own advertising platform, and we’re, we’re cutting you off. We’re producing data that you’re that you’re able to use and profit from. And when this happened, we’ve lost a lot of the detail that we used to have about we can tell generally who likes to read, it’s much more difficult to tell what those people like to read. And so that has, that’s the first thing that has changed the profitability of Facebook, it’s still profitable, not not as much as it used to be. The second thing is that it is an auction market for advertising. And all of the excess profit margin in any industry accrues to the advertising, the advertising platform, because I’m always competing with the next person who’s trying to get attention to sell books, and I compete all the way up until I have just squeezed the last bit of margin out of my business and I either quit, or I took another take another channel and all of that excess profit, all of that excess margin accrues to Facebook and to Google. And there was some interesting report where 40% of all venture capital investment went to Facebook ads.

Gene Tunny 10:21

I’ll have to look that up. Yeah, I believe it. Yeah.

Lars Emmerich  10:24

You know, don’t take that number to the bank. It’s an interesting, you know, it’s an interesting, it’s an interesting concept. And, and certainly, having been deeply involved in Facebook advertising and Google ads and other mechanisms, I can see that it does not sound false to me.

Gene Tunny  10:42

Yeah, it’s that point about, the, the the auction mechanism, that’s one that Seth Godin has made, and how that means a lot of the money ends up with Google or Facebook. So I think that’s a very good point. Just on. So you mentioned Tom Clancy. So this is the Jack Ryan series of novels, is it? Is it clear and present danger and Patriot Games and Hunt for Red? October is that’s what’s inspired you, is it? And then how did, what is your series of books about you write thrillers in that? Well, I mean, I’m not necessarily saying you’re trying to emulate Tom Clancy, but you write thrillers you’re trying to write in that sort of genre, so to speak.

Lars Emmerich  11:25

Yeah. Alright. So I spent a long time in the national security business. And I don’t write directly about those for various reasons. But I write peripherally about them. And they, I basically write edgy spy novels. And so Clancy was this intersection of espionage and statecraft and whatnot. It’s interesting that it’s interesting thinking about Tom Clancy now, because several years ago, I went back and I started rereading one of the novels, the cardinal of the Kremlin, and I got about 60 pages in. And it struck me that it was going so slowly. The pace of the narration was so slow, I couldn’t finish it, I stopped, I put it down. And I think our standards for what makes the story interesting have definitely changed, there needs to be much more movement, and much more. It needs to be much twister and turnier then some of those old masters. Another one along those lines is another one along those lines is the Bourne series. Yeah, they’re amazing movies, the books not so much. But they’re classics. And at the time, they were revolutionary, but our taste for story has changed, the pace at which we consume concepts has changed, we’re smarter. Generally, we have access to so much more information. So there’s less description required for any particular scenario, that’s another interesting phenomenon that my inspiration was now so slow as to be unreadable for me. But interesting, how that’s changed your I suppose what’s now been 30 years.

Gene Tunny  13:21

Yeah, but could you tell me, could you tell me about the series that you’ve developed? You’ve got a central character, haven’t you? You’ve got a central, you’ve got someone in sort of an arc or whatever you call it. Can you tell us about that process?

Lars Emmerich  13:35

Yeah, the Sam Jameson series. And by the way, these are the best deal I have at any given time available at Lars.buzz, if this is of interest to anybody, large.buzz is a great spot to go get the best, the best deal currently. But the SamJameson series is centred around a female protagonist, Samantha Jameson. And her, her stint in the series begins as she’s a counter espionage agent for Homeland, some made up office in a, in a real bureaucracy. And I did that to avoid the inevitable letters about oh, no such and such reports directly to so and so in the real world wanted to avoid all of that by creating a fake office inside of the Department of Homeland Security. And I have a lot of fun exploring all sorts of different kinds of themes that relate to the relationship of the individual to the state, the big macro kind of way and that leads us directly into the cryptocurrency discussion that I think is around the corner. The other thing that is really interesting is how do you discover what’s true in a business where everybody is lying. Yeah, everybody is deceiving somebody in some way. Many people are deceiving everybody in some way. How do you find what is true? Not I don’t mean like metaphysically true. I mean fact, how do you discover what’s factual and act on it? And that’s a really interesting set of really, interesting set of situations.

Gene Tunny  15:27

Yeah, well, I mean, in real life, there was the concern in the 60s and 70s that there was a high level mole in think it was in British intelligence or even in US intelligence and the counter counter espionage people I think was a James Jesus Hangleton in the US and yes, yeah, but he was just obsessed with finding that mole whether or not they existed and, and John, the John le Carre, in Smiley’s People and tinker Tailor, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, I think it was I mean, he’s very good at just explain, just telling that story about how difficult it is to figure out what’s going on. And you don’t know who you can trust. I love those. Those novels. Right. Okay, so yeah, I’ll put links to your, to your books to the Sam Jameson series. So, so yeah, that sounds that sounds great. Just on the book publishing can ask you’ve, you’re selling direct. And you’re also selling via Kindle. Is that right? On the Amazon store?

Lars Emmerich  16:29

I am. Yep. So I’m always testing, testing, right? What’s the, what’s the best way to get books to readers that have a value that they are pricing in a way that meets their value expectations, but also allows allows us to run a profitable business? That’s a constant evolution as big landscape changes, and it changes quite quickly.

Gene Tunny  16:54

Yeah, and the best deal for you is obviously if they buy on your website, because is it the case that Amazon takes a substantial cut on Kindle,

Lars Emmerich  17:04

Your royalties are either 70% or 65%, depending on the way it is set up. 70% is a terrific royalty rate, it represented a 10x improvement in the deal that authors generally otherwise got. And, and so they, they disrupted the industry in a way that, that really allowed a lot of very talented folks to find an audience who otherwise would not have done. But there’s a level of bureaucracy that comes with having to curate a library, that’s, I don’t know, 20 million volumes old and are large. And they’re not always well behaved, about how they do that. So within, you know, within the Amazon community, there’s a lot of unrest on the part of authors regarding the way that we’re treated. And, you know, we’re, there’s always some dissatisfaction about how royalties you calculated, or discoverability on the platform, or the way that your rankings are calculated, which influences your discoverability on the platform. And these things are always in flux. And you occasionally come to realise that Amazon, they’re actually serving their shareholders, which is the way that American businesses constructed, but you’re not a shareholder, you’re a supplier. And they’re overtly and aggressively looking to replace and vertically integrate suppliers. So the price pressure, and a bunch of other aspects of the way the book business has developed under Amazon’s auspices, it’s not appreciably better for many authors than it was under the old system, in spite of a better route.

Gene Tunny  18:55

By the vertical integration, what do you mean, exactly? Do you mean they’re trying to get them have people as dedicated Amazon authors, I’m just trying to understand what your what you mean by that, 

Lars Emmerich  19:08

Their business model as as they in order by being the marketplace, you have a terrific understanding of what where margin exists in the marketplace. And when you find that, you can just either use your own manufacturing techniques and technologies to replace the merchants so that you don’t have to pay them. You don’t have to pay them a cut you. You are the merchant as Amazon, and they’re doing this in a lot of other industries. And they’re, they’re definitely looking at looking into it in, in the book business as well. And there are some interesting projects underway related to artificial intelligence, writing stories and and whatnot. We’re not there yet. Wow. But as a position as a position. They’re interested in paying suppliers less and less and less and having fewer and fewer and fewer suppliers to have to pay. There are reading that writing on the wall, you have to make your own way. You can’t, you can’t rely on it for your, you know, for your meals.

Gene Tunny  20:08

Okay. Yeah, I’ll have to look more into that. I remember, I think it was Tim Ferriss got into trouble. Well, he had an issue, maybe 10 years ago or so with his Four Hour Chef book that he was developing. I think he developed it for Amazon. And it was going to be sold through Amazon and then some of the traditional booksellers, I think Barnes and Noble, were unhappy with him about that. I have to look up the details and put it in the show notes. Fascinating developments. It looks like yeah, this is the, this is the wider guide and the extent that you can do it yourself. And the technology’s there, and why not? And I know that there was a lady who wrote 50 Shades of Grey, who think she started off as a self published and just selling it, using the platforms that are available to sell it rather than having a traditional book and is able to say whether that you’ve you’ve been, have you been approached by anyone in the film industry? Has your work been optioned at all?

Lars Emmerich  21:08

No, not at the moment. We’re not under option for anything. You hear rumblings and such.

Gene Tunny  21:15

Oh, yeah, I was just gonna say it sounds like you’ve got a good concept and, and, you know, people that people are looking for new content to develop and that I think that Jack Ryan series on Amazon Prime was popular. I think that’s, that’s a good example of how everything’s sped up, right? Because the new Jack Ryan is much more he’s much younger, he’s much more, there’s much more action than in the traditional Harrison Ford films. Okay. So I might ask you about crypto now, Lars, you were talking about how one of the themes you explore is the relationship of the individual to the state. Now, it’d be good to unpack that exactly what you, you mean by that? And how then that influences your views on? Well say traditional money, fiat money? And, and crypto like how, why did? Why does that lead you to be a supporter of crypto? Could you tell us a bit about that, please?

Lars Emmerich  22:13

Sure, I noticed that the money that I was saving was worth less and less over time, I became aware at some moment that there was an inflation target. Not more than but also not less than. And I think when you print more and more of anything, the sum the total, individual dollars that you print each become less valuable over time. So it struck me as weird that you couldn’t just hold your money, because it would lose its value by virtue of just being held. And that was, I mean, it’s part of the it’s part of culture, it’s part of just the socio economic background, the water that we’re swimming in, we all take it as a given, you must invest your money, otherwise it would disappear. And I started wondering, gosh, who does it really serve? process. And it turns out, I think that a fiat system, it has a lot to recommend. There’s a there, there’s a lot in terms of being able to organise and focus, human effort and energy in a particular direction, you can do that very, very quickly. With a loan. Those dollars don’t generally exist before you go take out a business loan to open a gas station or whatever. It’s a very quick way, at the point of need to deploy capital. I think it exists mainly to ensure that the authority that issues that remains the authority remains viable remains in charge. And they, the agreement is, hey, we’re the state we have the monopoly on violence. And we decree that all transactions will occur in our currency will control the supply of that currency. And that’s for your own benefit. You know, when times are tough, we’ll be there to help. When it gets a little too crazy. We’ll be there to ease back, right. Inherent in that is that we have both the wisdom and the judgement to do that effectively. And I think that’s the great weakness of the fiat currency system is that the temptation is, is overwhelming to irresponsibly print. And, and I think, where you get into trouble and when it seems to happen, it seems to happen with a very large percentage of fiat currencies. Something will happen where the state feels the need to have it really amounts to an abuse of this agreement, like the estate says, Here’s the money, your job is to pretend it’s valuable. And we’ll control the supplies such that we don’t flaunt your trust. It’ll, you know, we won’t just flood the world with so many of these things that you’re pretending it has value, these little green pieces of paper are these numbers in a spreadsheet, you’re, you’re pretending that they’re valuable. It’s sort of relies on the state’s good behaviour. But something inevitably comes up, somebody wants to start a war, how do you get it? How do you start a war? Well, you don’t save a trillion dollars, and then go buy a war, you start a war, and print your way to the hardware and payroll that you need to execute this war. So that’s one way that it’s, it’s sort of abused. In other ways, when you’re looking to be reelected, or you’re looking to quell any kind of an uprising, you can very easily pander and purchase the loyalty that you need, with printed money that occurs at like an accelerating pace over time, either to the point where people recognise that whatever was supposed to have been backing the currency, for example, gold, there’s no longer any real relationship between some quantity of currency and a different quantity of gold. That’s supposedly back into currency. That’s the first way that people lose confidence in a currency. And I think a second way is when the rate of inflation is visibly painful. It’s personally painful. It’s causing hardship in a way that it wasn’t before. It’s just under the radar until it is until you’re thinking my gosh, I’m having trouble affording my food and my energy costs. And that’s the second major way I think that people on mass, lose confidence in occurrence. Yeah, ultimately, that’s what it is. It’s an agreement, we’re all going to agree to pretend this is valuable, until pretending it is so far farcical that we have to start doing it. And then the currency collapses.

Gene Tunny  27:16

Yeah. So I think what you’re describing when you’re talking about, oh, well, we want a war or we want to, you know, we’ve got a reelection election coming up, then we’ll just spend up big and we’ll just turn on the printing press to fund that. I think that’s something that’s been, you know, that’s occurred in some Latin American countries or some kleptocratic African states in the past. And you’ve seen the results of that. We mean, I was just looking the other day, at the inflation rate in Peru in the early 90s. That got up to I think it was 10,000% over the year, or something like that, just absolutely insane. And, and you’ve seen that in some other Latin American countries in the past, I guess, in the US and Australia and Britain, we, we haven’t had inflation that bad, thankfully. And we’ve we’ve managed, we haven’t we typically haven’t financed, or we’ve been careful with how we have finance budget deficits, where we can we do try to borrow from the bond market, so that it’s not as if we are turning on the printing press to to fund that. But one of the big changes in the last well, since the financial crisis, and this is something that economists are still debating and something that, you know, I personally, I used to work in the treasury here in Australia. And you know, it’s something that has started to concern me is just this now that quantitative easing, or this large scale purchase of assets with newly created money by the Central Bank, that’s something that, I don’t know, 20 or 30 years ago, we thought we would never do that. I mean, that’s sort of, yeah, that’s really, that that unconventional monetary policy is that’s, that’s a bit out there. We wouldn’t go there. But now it seems to be part of the standard, macro economic playbook. And I think we’ll be debating that for the wisdom of that for decades to come. So yeah, I think I think you do make some some good points there. Lars. And so is this what has led you into being a crypto investor? Could you tell us a bit about that, please?

Lars Emmerich  29:28

Yeah, I like the idea. I think it’s important here to make a distinction. Cryptocurrency is has become a fairly broad term. I view it this way. There’s, there’s Bitcoin and there’s everything else. And the distinction there is the degree of decentralisation which makes Fiat type printing extremely difficult to do with Bitcoin. And exceptionally easy to do with the other projects, which amount to very centralised. They’re basically unregulated unregistered securities. They’re, they’re a project run by founders, in the best cases, the feathers of CEO and a CEO and a board of directors not vetted to the same extent that you would find on a stock exchange, for example. In the best cases, you’re, you’re investing in a legitimate business. And the worst case is you’re investing in vaporware. And you have a rogue pool in your, in your future, where and how Bitcoin differs is that the supply is algorithmically controlled, which means nothing if one person can change the algorithm, but spread around the globe are something on the order, somewhere between depending on whose numbers you believe 15,000 and 100,000, individual verifiers if you will have every transaction. So if you suddenly want to change the rules, you can do so if and when you convince 51% of everybody globally, involved in the project, that it’s a good idea to devalue the currency. So from a practical standpoint, it’s it’s not likely to happen. And what this ensures is scarce. And so it’s it’s very, it’s unlikely that there will be runaway inflation, or even inflation of any sort that’s beyond the programme to mount that. That exists in Bitcoin as the minting and mining that the total number of planned coins, which is 21 million. So that’s the part one, it’s scarce, nobody can abuse, no individual, no small group of people, no even large group of people are likely to be able to abuse your trust in the currency. On the first hand, on a second hand, there’s no third party risk. Meaning when I put my money in a bank, that’s a building full of people doing things. And they’re in between every transaction that occurs, I give them money that I have, they dole it out to whoever I say, I want them to pay it to, they’re the trusted third party that makes the whole thing go. And trust like that can and is abused. And it’s most obvious and most prevalent in the cases where nations undertake capital controls where suddenly the money that was in your account is not. The state took it, okay, it’s part of living here, sorry, times are rough, we’re taking your money, or we’re going to ensure that you can’t, you can exchange your money and take it out of country. Bitcoin allows you to move millions of dollars all across the globe, inside of 10 to 15 minutes for fees under 10 bucks. So the degree of participation available now, economic participation is much higher than it was before when there was a third party gate gatekeeper standing between you and whoever you were trying to pay or receive money from. So this, is this has just dissolved economic borders. And it has a huge impact for things like remittances. But it also has a huge impact. For things like personal sovereignty. We’re less beholden to the good behaviour of the state in order to earn a livelihood in order to provide for your family. If things become politically untenable, where you live, you have the you have a real option by memorising your private key to carry all of your wealth with you out the door with nothing in your pockets. So the degree of personal sovereignty and individual liberty that comes from having this a construct like that. It’s quite important in many, many parts of the world. And I think those two things scarcity and this global transaction capability, they’re going to prove to be quite transformational.

Gene Tunny  34:39

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  34:44

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with adept economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice. We can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis studies, and economic modelling of all sorts Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia. But we work all over the world, you can get in touch via our website, http://www.adepteconomics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  35:13

Now back to the show. With that private key this is your password to your, your wallet, is it? Is that what you’re talking about? And is that just that’s a string of characters? Is it? Is it something that you can memorise it, because I know that some people have lost that in the past, and then they’ve lost their, their access to Bitcoin that would be worth, you know, large amounts of money. So you got to make sure you keep hold of that.

Lars Emmerich  35:40

Yeah, there ain’t  no free lunch. So if you are responsible, if you think of it as you are your own banker, so you have to learn how to take take care of your private keys. Now you can leave them on an exchange, but now it’s just like leaving it in the bank, you’re trusting the third party? So yeah, it’s, it’s, it’s a way to get your foot in the door in to the space, but the best practice is to, is to be the custodian of your own private keys, which are like your password to spend the money that is yours.

Gene Tunny  36:13

Gotcha. And can I ask you about the volatility? So you were talking about look, the problem with fiat money is that inflation will erode the value of it. And you’re concerned about our monetary and fiscal authorities and their policies and what that means for, for inflation. I mean, I think we’ve seen that in the time of the pandemic, and then we had the big monetary expansion and then followed by the inflation that probably should have been predicted back then, when they were undertaking those policies. That if we look at what’s happened with Bitcoin, I mean, it’s fallen in value by almost 50%, or something this year, or over the last year. So

Lars Emmerich  36:54

More than that, I would imagine.

Gene Tunny  36:56

Yeah, I mean, crypto is, crypto is quite, it’s volatile, because we’re still trying to figure out what the true value of it is. So how do you how do you deal with that? Is that something you just accept that just comes with, with crypto assets?

Lars Emmerich  37:14

Well, in in the case of in the case of Bitcoin, that relates to sentiment, news cycle, whatever’s in the news, I think it also relates to the fact that the supply is really quite, quite inelastic. So you get wild price swings as sentiment changes, I think the other thing at play is the available availability of investable cash. So I think it has become known at the moment as an inflation hedge and an asset to invest your dollars in, in the hope that you can exchange them for more dollars in the future. I think the bull case for Bitcoin is that at some moment, in the future, we will have given the world the last dollar the world cares to have cares the whole. And I think we because the SWIFT system settles in USD, because for years, we’ve been forced militarily, the petro-dollar concept where whoever buys oil anywhere from anybody pays in US dollars, that has given us carte blanche to print in a way that, you know, small countries, there’s only so many of the units of currency you can print before they spill over. And this spilling over is what we can think of as this as the crisis causing loss of confidence. But that the entire globe is now the reservoir of dollars, everyone is kind of infected with dollars everyone is whether they know it or not. They’re deeply exposed to the US dollar. So what that means is we can print a lot more dollars for a lot longer before the crisis occurs. But when the crisis occurs, because I think these things tend to have this kind of cycle, there’s likely to be some moment where we’ve, we’ve just pushed it too far. And people have finally said, it can’t be worth all this if you’re just printing it at this pace, right? If and when that happens, what I think will be a very strong candidate for the global, global reserve currency is something like Bitcoin is relatively free of politicisation. I mean, all of all the miners were kicked out of China, get out, beat it. And Bitcoin didn’t skip a beat. The network ran, transactions settled. This was an entire block, a huge block of mining entire operations just overnight, decimate and and yet, functionally, and practically. Yes, there were price fluctuation associated Bitcoin to dollar exchange rate that fluctuated, of course, but the way the network function, completely oblivious to this loss of hashing power and this giant political upheaval, I think that will make it very attractive as a reserve currency. So, in the moment, we’re comparing, how many dollars is a Bitcoin worth? And we hope it’s worth more in X number of months or years. I think the long case is this is this has some likelihood of being the reserve currency. So you’re, you’re purchasing today, what will be the money going forward? And so from that standpoint, if your horizon is that length of time, whether it’s a decade or two, or three, who knows? If that’s your horizon, you’re far less concerned about the volatility than if you’re trying to put in a good result, result this quarter. Yeah, my argument is if you want to invest in this space, take the longest view possible. And make your decision based on the longest you don’t, don’t, don’t expect that you’re going to be able to, A predict the right project and B predict the right timeframe, an entry and exit points to get in and out to make a bunch of dollars off of your crypto investment. But that’s, you know, people will make a lot of money, but a lot more people will lose a lot more money.

Gene Tunny  41:20

Yeah. So you talked about a loss of hashing power. So I’ll put a link in the show notes about hashing power. I think I know what you mean. But this relates to the process of, is this the process of solving the puzzles of proving whether a transaction is legitimate or not, broadly speaking?

Lars Emmerich  41:40

Yeah, this is, so it’s the marriage of how Bitcoin is created. And the pace at which it’s created, the way it’s set up is that every 10 minutes or so a new block. And a block is nothing but a list of all the transactions that have occurred in the last 10 minutes, plus the hash. So the cryptic cryptographic code that summarises every prior transaction. And this does two things. The way this hash is determined, you, you can’t calculate it in advance, but it’s trivial to verify it in reverse. The way the math works, it’s, you couldn’t with massive amounts of computing power, you couldn’t trick the system and guess faster than everyone else. So the way mining works, is that these processors, they’re guessing millions of times a second, the hash, and the world is literally guessing what string of characters will solve this hash of the summary of the last 10 minutes worth of transactions plus the hash that represents cryptographically, every other transaction that’s ever happened. And so because it’s trivial to verify, its takes no, almost no computation power whatsoever to verify that the right hash has been found. But it’s very, very difficult to guess it, you have to roll a 36 sided dice correctly, 100 times in a row, that’s what mining is. Now, that’s when your computer or your mining pool guesses correctly, you get rewarded with some number of Bitcoins. That’s the incentive for mining. But what mining represents, is when you, you take the list of transactions and package them together and create a hash function out of them. What you’re saying is if anybody tries to go back and change any one of these transactions, no words, if anyone tries to commit fraud, the entire world knows about the entire world rejects the fraudulent transaction, because the entire world can tell cryptic, cryptographic, if one thing has been changed at any point along the line. And so this is the real value of mining operation, is that it it prevents fraud. It prevents theft, it prevents double spending in a way that takes entire police apparatus and, you know, buildings full of banks and all sorts. It’s a beautiful solution to a really intractable, intractable problem prior to this, prior to this innovation that reason. It’s remarkably immune to political and criminal intervention. Right.

Gene Tunny  44:52

It sounds like they’re using a brute force approach as you were describing it. So there’s no algorithm that allows you to quickly get to the right solution to solve this, this hash or figure out what it is. And that’s why you need all of this computing power. Now, there’s, if I’m interpreting this all correctly, and there was an article in the Financial Times that I didn’t get a chance to send it to you before, because I just, I just read it this, this morning, my time in Australia, and they’re talking about how the amount of energy that’s consumed by Bitcoin mining or the, you know, all the Bitcoin operations around the world is equivalent to the energy use, or the electricity used by the country of Belgium, I think it was, and this was in an article.

Lars Emmerich  45:44

Its about 1 half of 1%, I think of current global energy supply. So there’s a lot in that figure that we can, we can pull apart, the first thing I think we would say about that is given that every transaction is visible and verified by the entire globe. That removes what you’re, what you’re buying by expending that energy, is the security of the global financial network and the integrity of the global financial network. And what you don’t have to buy is the military intervention for 30 years in the Middle East to ensure that all petroleum transactions settle in US dollars, you don’t have to pay the energy for all of the buildings and humans it takes to run the global banking system, which is just a series of of parochial, third party, you know, intermediaries, and you don’t pay the cost of a fraud and theft. And you also don’t pay the enormous cost of inflation. When you’re, even if inflation is 3% per year, you’re you’re, you’re spending 3% more energy every single year, just to keep your nose above water to keep your productivity to keep your standard of living. So that’s what you’re, that’s what’s on the other side of this energy equation. I don’t know how much energy that amounts to. I know that, by many estimates, we, we’ve spent between six and a half and $10 trillion, since 2001 prosecuting the global war on terror, which has been conducted largely in the oil producing countries on the planet. And you know, someone somewhere on the order of, of a million lives, you have to think that those kinds of things are less necessary, when the currency has its own integrity. The other thing that is difficult to quantify is and we’ll get to the actual breakdown of that, that number one half  of a percent, in just a second, there’s more there than, than their first appears. The other thing is that when a currency is scarce, and you can’t just print it up, when you’re ready to go fight a war there’s likely to be fewer wars, there’s likely to be less military action, when when it’s an it’s always always destructive, you know, that the real cost of military action is just astronomical. And it’s far less feasible when you can’t just print up a war like you, like you can now. So I think those are costs that are that are on the other side of the ledger that that people don’t necessarily appreciate. That’s what scarce and sound and and forcibly scarce and and forcibly sound money buys for you. The second thing is it’s an exceptionally competitive industry mining Bitcoin, super competitive, the salient variable, are two. Chip production and these are application specific integrated circuits, their their purpose in life is to mined Bitcoin period. When you produce a new semiconductor, that’s an expensive process. The second and this ends up being the dominant cost in Bitcoin mining is the price of energy. So what this means is that the Bitcoin mining operation automatically flows to those places where energy production is cheap. And so you can think of it like the aluminium industry where it takes a massive amount of electricity to smelt aluminium. And so, aluminium, put production migrated to those places where geothermal energy is cheap or other sources of energy. So Iceland, a couple of places that have a high geothermal energy output? Well beyond what people, what people can use in those areas, and there are places in China where seasonally, and places all over the Earth where seasonally, the hydroelectric power that’s available in the rainy season is astronomically more than the population consumes. And more than current battery technology lets you hold. So the hashing power goes to these places where excess electricity is produced largely sustainably. And so a good portion of the energy that secures the Bitcoin network is pretty green. Another area is that as petroleum is processed in the world runs on petroleum, that’s not going to change overnight. It’s not going to change in several decades, because it’s it’s so deeply entrenched in everything that we that we do. It’s just a fact of life. But the process of it, you have to burn certain amount of, of gas, that’s a byproduct. So these are refineries all over the earth, you see these bright orange flames, just shooting energy into the ether, because there’s nothing else that they’re doing with that gas. Well, what Bitcoin and Bitcoin and energy production, they’re, they’re coming together, because Bitcoin helps stabilise the production profile for power plants, number one, number two, it gives a bit the burn, that refineries do just burning off this waste gas, that thermal energy can produce electricity on site that can be used for Bitcoin mining, and there are several places where those agreements are, are being implemented now. So that’s, that’s energy that is just currently being absolutely full of waste, that will no no longer be wasted it will be put to put to use. So it’s not clear. It’s not this clear case where we’re irresponsibly securing the Bitcoin network, which in and of itself, I think is a mean, what else you’re going to spend energy, if not to secure the financial infrastructure of potentially all sorts of nations on Earth, and maybe even at some point, what may become a global reserve currency in the way that the US dollar has become a global reserve currency. You know, it’s not quite the soundbite that the reality of the situation is not quite the soundbite that you hear, Oh, gosh, it’s terrible. It’s kind of warm the earth up to whatever and it’s evil? Not so much, you know, not so fast. Yeah, there’s, there’s been a bit a bit of thought put into it.

Gene Tunny  52:56

Yeah, I’ll have to look more into those, those opportunities you were talking about to to use energy that would otherwise be wasted for for crypto. So I’ll have to look at that. That’s interesting. You’ve got an interesting hypothesis there about how crypto could mean less military intervention worldwide. So again, yeah, I think I have to get my head around around that. And but I think yep, you know, if that’s, if that’s, that, that’s, that’s a hypothesis. So I’m happy to accept that as a as a hypothesis. Can I ask about a theory? Um, if you’ve been following what’s been happening with a theory? Are you mainly in Bitcoin laws

Lars Emmerich  53:42

with a great deal of interest? Yeah. I want to circle back Yeah. It’s not nearly crypto. That is, like, not all crypto is good in the way that I have described bitcoins virtues, okay. Because if, if it is just down again, to a central authority to govern the supply, whether or not it’s cryptographically secured, once you’ve issued the new supply, doesn’t really matter. If I can print more of these tokens whenever I desire, then I lose the scarcity. I’m just an all I am is an updated digital fiat currency and the central bank, digital currencies that that are. I think, in autocrats, you know, dream. They’re, they’re really, they’re really just digital forms of the existing system. There’s not there’s not any advance not any revolution, not any evolution there. And in the case of Aetherium this is a really interesting case because Aetherium is a project that you know that eath has some some value. eath is also used to power it’s a substrate a commodity used to To power computation in Aetherium, related applications, or business. In other words, it, you can think of it almost like a programming language that requires fuel. And eath is the fuel. And they are currently on a proof of work system. And that’s what Bitcoin is proof of work. They’re talking about moving to a proof of stake, meaning who makes the rules, the people who have the most eath make the rules, they have the greatest stake in the game, and therefore they have the greatest authority over the governance. And this is, this is basically fiat currency. It’s, it’s basically the same thing as the fiat currency, you know, the, the, the Board of Governors or or whoever’s whatever small collection of people is in charge at Etherium. They will ultimately decide how many tokens or print Yeah, and, and the proof of stake just you’ve automatically instituted an oligarchy. As you go proof, you the only people are the people who have the most say, over the way our money is handled, if that comes money, or the people already have all the money, or most of the money. That doesn’t seem like an improvement. To me, that seems like more of the very same. And the bumper sticker is oh, we’re going green. Yeah, we’re not gonna do this evil energy thing. Instead, we’re just gonna hand the keys to the kingdom to the people already, who already own the kingdom.

Gene Tunny  56:40

Yeah, yeah, that was. That was. I think that was the sentiment from some of the critics of this, that were quoted in the Financial Times. I’ll put a link in the show notes. Yep. So they’re saying that look, this is going away from what crypto is all about? So yeah, it’s it’s not the right direction, according to them. Okay. Lars has been great. Pick your brain for the last nearly an hour or so. Is there anything? Before we wrap up any anything we’ve missed? Or any any important points you think would be good to? To get out there to my audience? Before we wrap up, please?

Lars Emmerich  57:21

Sure. I think there’s been a, we’ve talked a lot, a lot of it is technical. And there are some technical details to digest. For sure. I think the most important thing to say on this particular topic is there’s there’s a lot out there that you can, that you can educate yourself on, you won’t fully understand it unless and until you bite the bullet. And just get into some of the more technical discussions. Until you do that. You’re completely at the mercy of the interpretation of whoever’s writing the news article, and whatever slant has been taken on it. So if you want to make a real decision, I would say look at how the technology actually works. Whether you’re thinking of a project that’s that’s not Bitcoin, that’s more of a security or a stock, or a new investment, or a new startup that you’re thinking of investing in that’s issuing a token? Or if you like, what you’ve heard about Bitcoin, go look at how it functions, and then make up your mind from there and stress tested, think about edge cases, think about who can manipulate it, and how what would it take to manipulate this particular venture. And I think that’ll go a long way toward also, think about your time horizon. If you’re looking to get in and get out with a quick book, join the club, everybody wants to do that. And there’s enough lottery ticket winners to just keep us off frothing at the mouth, but you’re gonna lose your shirt, most likely. Think really long term, and think about all the edge cases and arrive at a sober you know, well considered position on

Gene Tunny  59:07

rod and were there any good resources from your perspective that I could link to in the show notes? If there are if you do have any I can. I can link to them in the show notes for people.

Lars Emmerich  59:17

Yeah, there’s there’s a, I recommend this with reservation safety and almost the Bitcoin standard. There’s a few digressions in there that are that are worrisome, and that detract from the central argument that he makes, he goes on a few tangents that are not helpful, but he does a really good job of describing the fundamentals of how the network works and how how the Bitcoin, the Bitcoin network works. So if you can ignore the rant on modern art. I mean, just completely skip the chapter. And if you can, you know, just focus on the way he describes the functioning of network that’s really quite useful.

Gene Tunny  1:00:02

Good stuff. Okay, last anyway, thanks so much for the conversation. I really enjoyed it. And yeah, it’s made me think think a bit more laterally about these issues. So that’s great and yeah all the best for your, your publishing career. I think it’s terrific. You’re, you’re doing well in that area. So that’s great. And yeah, Lars, really appreciate it. So thanks so much for your time.

Lars Emmerich  1:00:28

Thank you, James. My pleasure.

Gene Tunny  1:00:31

Okay, that’s the end of this episode of economics explored. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, please tell your family and friends and leave a comment or give us a rating on your podcast app. If you have any comments, questions, suggestions, you can feel free to send them to contact at economics explore.com And we’ll aim to address them in a future episode. Thanks for listening. Till next week, goodbye.

Credits

Thanks to Josh Crotts for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au

Please consider signing up to receive our email updates and to access our e-book Top Ten Insights from Economics at www.economicsexplored.com. Also, please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

120. Inflation, Covid, China & Crypto

2021 saw accelerating inflation in advanced economies, the pandemic continuing, cracks appearing in the Chinese economic model, and massive price growth in cryptocurrencies and NFTs. In episode 120, Economics Explored host Gene Tunny discusses the big issues of 2021 and looks forward to 2022 with frequent guest Tim Hughes.

The episode also features discussion on the COP26 climate change summit, the idea of “degrowth” advanced by some ecologists and environmentalists, and feedback on EP115 on the Opioid Crisis and the War on Drugs.  

Crazy Crypto charts Gene refers to in the episode

Australia’s largest bitcoin mine hopes to utilise unused renewable energy and lead the world on decarbonisation

Covid: Dutch go into Christmas lockdown over Omicron wave

 WHO forecasts coronavirus pandemic will end in 2022

China struggles to shrug off weak consumer spending and property woes 

China Evergrande reports progress in resuming home deliveries

Life in a ‘degrowth’ economy, and why you might actually enjoy it

EP115 – The Opioid Crisis and the War on Drugs

Thanks to the show’s audio engineer Josh Crotts for his assistance in producing the episode. 

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Economic update

Crazy Crypto charts

The forthcoming EP120 of Economics Explored includes a discussion of the massive price growth seen in some cryptocurrencies over 2021. In the conversation, to be published at 12am UTC+10 on 1 January 2022, show host Gene Tunny refers to a couple of great charts from data service provider Macrobond showing just how incredibly crazy that growth has been.

The first chart shows the percentage growth in the value of different types of assets, including Bitcoin, gold, and stocks on the Nasdaq, relative to their levels at the start of the years they arguably each became the subject of a “bubble”. This clearly shows just how much of an outlier Bitcoin is. Note all data in this chart and the next one were current as at 29 December 2021.

Chart from Macrobond comparing Bitcoin’s price growth far exceeding that of other assets which have allegedly been subjects of speculative bubbles since the seventies, including gold, Japanese stocks, and tech stocks.

The second chart shows the mega growth in the value of a range of cryptocurrencies, including the Gala and Axie Infinity cryptocurrencies associated with their respective online games.

Chart from Macrobond showing incredible growth in the value of particular cryptocurrencies over 2021, particularly Gala (+31k%) and Axie Infinity (+17k%).

This post is for general information only, and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Please see a qualified professional regarding any investment decisions.

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Economics Explored Live

Aussie reopening, Kiwi inflation, oil and petrol prices, and Bitcoin news – livestream from 22 October 2021

Economics Explored host Gene Tunny’s latest Friday livestream for 22 October 2021 covered:

  • accelerating NZ inflation and the implications for interest rates of accelerating inflation in advanced economies more broadly;
  • the great Australian reopening and booming job vacancies (i.e. as noted by the National Skills Commission “Nationally job advertisements are up by 36.2% (or 60,800 job advertisements) compared to levels observed prior to the pandemic”); and
  • the extraordinary Bitcoin narrative which is being reinforced by the introduction of Bitcoin-exposed Exchange Traded Funds.

You can download Michael Knox’s excellent note on the oil price which was mentioned in the livestream here:

Biden’s oil and gas lease pause

Also, check out this great note (also quoted in the livestream and which was likely written by Pete Wargent) in the BuyersBuyers newsletter from yesterday:

Yields creeping higher

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

EP89 – CPI inflation concerns with Darren Brady Nelson

There are growing concerns over CPI inflation after all the money printing associated with the pandemic response.

Episode 89 of Economics Explored features a conversation on just how worried we should be about future inflation in this time of MMT and QE between Economics Explored host Gene Tunny and returning guest Darren Brady Nelson, chief economist of the Australian libertarian think tank LibertyWorks and a policy adviser to the Heartland Institute.
Charts of data referred to in this episode:

Charts on CPI, money supply, US 10 year bond yield, and asset prices

This is the classic book by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz mentioned in this episode:

A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960

Please send through any questions, comments, or suggestions to contact@economicsexplored.com and we will aim to address them in an upcoming episode. Alternatively, please leave a comment on this post.

Categories
Podcast episode

EP66 – Money and Cryptocurrency

When I recorded the latest episode of my Economics Explored podcast last Friday afternoon, the price of one Bitcoin was a bit above US$18,000 after having failed to get beyond US$20,000 in the previous weeks. In my chat with my friend Tim Hughes, I said who knew what it would end up at when the episode was finally released. Well, it turns out that the price of one Bitcoin has finally gone beyond US$20,000 (check out this Coindesk report).

The US$20,000 Bitcoin price is the latest illustration of the Greater Fool Theory. If you’re buying Bitcoin at this price you’re speculating/gambling you’ll find a greater fool who’ll buy it at a higher price. Coindesk suggests there could be a lot of greater fools out there:

Breaking above $20,000, which represented a significant hurdle in the mindset of most traders, is entirely new ground for bitcoin and opens the doors for a climb to $100,000 over the course of 2021, according to some.

As I discussed with Tim, and in my Queensland Economy Watch post from Saturday, Huge swings in Bitcoin value make it hard to believe it will ever replace traditional currencies, I’m very sceptical about the value of Bitcoin. But, hey, it’s 2020, and Bitcoin’s insane valuation is just another marker of this extraordinary year.

Please feel free to comment below. Alternatively, please send and comments, suggestions, or questions to contact@economicsexplored.com