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Podcast episode

Fixing Australia’s Housing Crisis: Fusion’s Plan w/ Owen Miller – EP277

There’s an upcoming election in Australia, and housing will be a big issue. Show host Gene Tunny chats with Fusion Party candidate Owen Miller about Fusion’s sweeping housing policy proposals. Topics include eliminating negative gearing, taxing capital gains on owner-occupied homes, and increasing public housing. They also discuss ideas like charter cities, high-speed rail, and a government-run real estate platform.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com.

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Apple Podcast and Spotify.

About Owen Miller

Owen Miller grew up in Sydney and has long been interested in science fiction, ultimately leading to the study of mechatronics (robotics & control systems) and computer science at the University of Sydney.

After working in different software roles in Sydney and even dealing Blackjack for some months, Owen moved to Seattle to work on the recommender systems at Amazon. Owen later moved to New York and was involved in smaller startups, especially in hospitality. Although the start-ups didn’t take off, this rite of passage involved less shielding from the real world and helped clarify the roles of the market and the state in the provision of essential aspects of life, such as software and social cooperation.

In 2020, Owen started the Non-Human Party; a vision for an opt-in online nationality that would optimise the existence of robots and animals, in addition to humans.

Upon moving to Melbourne in 2022, Owen became the Registered Officer of Fusion, with the hope of enabling Australia to reach its full potential as a wealthy, sustainable and harmonious paradise; a beacon for the rest of the world. He currently serves as Fusion’s Convenor.

Owen was Fusion’s candidate for the 2023 Aston federal by-election.

In 2024, he ran as a candidate for local council in Merri-bek (for the Bulleke-Bek ward).

He will again be running as a federal candidate in 2025, this time in Wills.

In 2024, Spotify classified Owen as belonging to the top 0.05% of Kylie Minogue fans.

Source: https://www.fusionparty.org.au/owen_miller 

Timestamps

  • Introduction (0:00)
  • Relationship Between Fusion Party and Pirate Party (3:07)
  • Fusion Party’s Housing Policy Goals (4:04)
  • Comparisons with Other Countries and Tax Policy (6:19)
  • Immigration and Housing Policy (9:09)
  • Owner-Occupier Capital Gains Tax and Land Tax (12:53)
  • Renter’s Rights and Social Housing (17:16)
  • Supply-Side Housing Policies (27:49)
  • Liberté Account and Open Source Real Estate Listings (38:24)
  • Final Thoughts and Wrap-Up (51:02)

Takeaways

  1. Tax reform is central to Fusion’s housing strategy — They propose reducing capital gains tax discounts and phasing in land tax for all properties, including owner-occupied homes.
  2. Fusion supports a major investment in social housing — Advocating a jump from 3.2% to 10% of housing stock as public housing.
  3. Tenant rights need an upgrade — Fusion argues for banning no-fault evictions and establishing minimum standards like clean air and energy efficiency.
  4. Livret A accounts could revolutionize infrastructure funding — A French-style citizen savings bond to fund high-speed rail and public housing projects.
  5. Urban sprawl isn’t the answer — Fusion favors infill development and transport-driven decentralization over expanding city fringes.

Links relevant to the conversation

Fusion’s housing policy:

https://www.fusionparty.org.au/housing_as_a_home

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Transcript: Fixing Australia’s Housing Crisis: Fusion’s Plan w/ Owen Miller – EP277

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Owen Miller  00:03

You know, it encourages people like you should spend as much money as you can afford on buying a home. And you know, that obviously creates rich suburbs poor suburbs. It’s interesting to note as well. You know, if you look at like domain, the real estate side, if you look at their list of top 10 most livable suburbs in Sydney doesn’t match the list, you know, the price list. So you know the most livable suburb is not actually the most expensive.

Gene Tunny  00:34

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode. Please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now onto the show. Hello and welcome to the show. Today we’re looking at the housing policy of the fusion party. So this is an Australian political party, and I’m joined by Owen Miller, who is the convener of the fusion party, and he’s also a candidate for the Federal seat of wills in the upcoming election. Owen, thanks so much for joining me on the program. Adrian,

Owen Miller  01:38

good to be here. I’ve enjoyed listening to it so far. And, yeah, I’m also becoming a fan of the organic coffee from the highlands of Peru.

Gene Tunny  01:45

Oh, very good. So you’ve ordered some brilliant I love to let him know. He’ll be, he’ll be super excited. Very good. Okay, now. Oh, and I read in your bio. I mean, there are a couple of things that stood out to me. I mean, one is, you’re in the top. What is it fraction like point, oh, 5% of Kylie Minogue fans guilty. It’s

Owen Miller  02:05

inspirational. You know, especially you know the song your disco needs you. It really, you know your nation’s falling. You know what needs to be done. Your disco needs you. It feels like it’s resonating for anyone you know, thinking about getting into politics.

Gene Tunny  02:19

Well, she’s a great Australian Export, really. I mean, she’s brilliant. I remember going to her impossible Princess concert here in Brisbane at the entertainment center. I mean, now she’d have to have a bigger venue. I imagine that was back in 1998 I think that was the start of when, I mean, she was, I mean, she was always huge, obviously. But that was really the start of when she started to become an icon. I think, where, oh, this is, it’s really changed. It’s not just the pop. It’s really getting sophisticated. And so, yeah, yeah, I can, I can see where you’re coming from. So that’s, that’s, that’s fine. I don’t want to talk about Kylie or all. We’d be here all night. Very good. So what I want to chat with you about is the housing policy of of fusion party. First, can you just explain what’s the relationship between fusion party and Pirate Party? Because I’ve previously spoken with John August, who’s involved with Pirate Party. Can you just tell us a bit about

Owen Miller  03:16

that, please? Yeah, so pirate party, that was one of our branches, so there was the law change a few years ago, 2018, I think it might have been previously, to have a party registered. You only needed 500 members, but then the rule changed, so you needed 1500 so, you know, various parties merged together. So the founding ones of fusion were, yeah, pirates, secular science, vote planet, and then also climate change justice. Gotcha.

Gene Tunny  03:43

Okay, gotcha. So you’re fusing together those different, those different philosophies or platforms. Okay, great. Oh, plus,

Owen Miller  03:51

we support nuclear fusion. Hence the like,

Gene Tunny  03:55

very clever. Okay, got it. Okay, that’s brilliant, right? So, can you tell us, I mean, what’s the overarching philosophy behind your housing policy? Can you? Can you give us an overview of your housing as a home policy, please, before we dive into some of the specifics.

Owen Miller  04:13

So what we were trying to solve for, there were three main goals. So there’s lowering the barrier of entry, not necessarily buying, but, you know, just being able to get a place to live. The second idea was increased mobility, you know, moving more easily. And the third is the efficient allocation of capital. Because, you know, homes the moment they’re doing double duty, you know, is it a place to live, or is it an investment? By trying to get them to do both, it ends up, you know, undermining both purposes.

Gene Tunny  04:42

Gotcha. Okay, so I guess the background is, I mean, in Australia, we’ve got a real problem with with housing. At the moment we’ve had, particularly in it was 2223 we had something like 20% growth in rents in some capital cities. Uh, we’ve had, you know, big, you know, massive appreciations of property prices. It’s becoming much harder for for young people, for first home owners, and we’ve got a growing homelessness crisis. So certainly, we certainly need some policy, policy measures. What are the major specific policy measures that you are advocating for Owen, can you tell us please? Yeah,

Owen Miller  05:23

so one of the main things at the moment there’s a capital gains tax discount. So the idea is, if you sell your home and it’s raised in value over the years, part of the reason it rose in price is just because there’s inflation going on around you in the economy. So you know, it makes sense that you don’t have to pay capital gains tax at 100% of that gain. Currently it’s up to 50% but we feel that that’s a bit too generous. So for owner occupiers, we’re suggesting the discount at the moment is, you know, 0% we’re suggesting it gets changed, you know, 15% and then for people who don’t live in the property, currently the discounts 50, but we’re also suggesting lowering that. So yeah, the main thing is, if we treat homes as if they’re going to keep rising in value and that you’re going to get a tax discount for this rise in value, then it sort of incentivizes the tap. And so, yeah, by us taxing these gains more, they’re sort of people are less likely to pursue it,

Gene Tunny  06:29

right? And so is this your this is the where you’re coming from. You think that these tax, the tax policies regarding housing? I mean, do you think that’s a significant source of the problem that we have in Australia with housing? Yeah. So

Owen Miller  06:45

especially if people want to visit the website where they can review our policy in detail, you’ll see, I’ve got comparisons with different countries. At the moment, we’re most comparable to the Netherlands. The similarities there, it’s mainly that in the Netherlands, they were allowed to borrow, sort of out of control, and then also they got tax discounts for the mortgage payments on their primary residence. So, you know, when you give all these generous tax treatments, pushing people into buy homes, then you know, that’s sort of what they do. And you know, you could get a mortgage in the Netherlands up to 105% of the value of the property. So, you know, I guess, you know, covering stamp duty and moving costs, all that sort of thing. And so one of the things they did to rein this in, in the early 2000s was to lower it so you can only borrow 100% the value of the home.

Gene Tunny  07:35

How did they do that? I mean, did they have, did they have state owned banks, or was there, so was there government support for I mean, I’m just wondering how they managed to do that, because that seems risky from the from the banks perspective, yeah,

Owen Miller  07:49

yeah, because you’re right, the risk of default, yeah, I’d have to look into that more. But I guess, in terms of how much anyone can borrow, I guess, you know banks, it’s pretty common worldwide, isn’t it, for, you know, banks to get bailed out by governments. I

Gene Tunny  08:04

guess, regrettably, there is that. There is that issue there that yes, and I mean, we’re still dealing with, I think, the the implications of the bailouts in the financial crisis, I think, I think, I think a lot of the reason that we have we’ve ended up with such toxic politics is that we’ve got a lot of people who are, you know, the people are mad that the people who are seen as the villains in the financial crisis ended up getting bailed out or didn’t go to jail when they probably should have. So I guess that’s a that’s a matter for another day. Oh, and I think, I think it’s Yeah. It’s interesting this point about taxes, because this is a debate I’ve been involved in. I used to be in the treasury, and so I probably got a different view. But that’s, that’s okay, I mean, I mean, I guess the sort of standard view would be that, well, okay, these are probably having some impact, but maybe it’s 4% two to 4% or something. It’s, yeah, the bulk of the the actual problem that we’ve seen recently. And so I’m just wondering, how do you see the the tax policy settings, and you mentioned capital gains, and there’s obviously the other thing, people argue about negative gear. And so be keen to hear your views on negative gearing. But how do you how do you compare these tax policy settings to say, immigration, there’s a lot of concern about rate of immigration. So could you tell us about both your views on negative gear and also immigration, please, in regards

Owen Miller  09:33

to that two to 4% Yeah. So one of the sources I was relying upon heavily was from Peter Tullet, the Center for Independent Studies. And yeah, so he included that figure where he’s saying, if we were to, if we were to have the same application of negative gearing that Paul Keating perform, you know, what many people think of as scrapping negative gearing, if we would do that, and then also we were going to change the capital gains tax for quote, unquote invest. Dollars, you know, people who don’t live in the home, then those two effects combined have been estimated be responsible for two to 4% of property prices. Where fusions policy differs is that we’re also changing the capital gains tax for owner occupiers, so we have more than this two to 4% impact. But then also, yeah, in terms of the impact of immigration, yeah, obviously that’s a huge component to it. So we did have a specific section on immigration, and that it’s skewed towards students at the moment. And you speak to anyone in the tertiary education sector, and they’ll tell you that there are whole there’s just rampant fraud going on at the moment. Many of these students are not learning anything. The colleges will never equip teach them anything. And, yeah, which even, even the skilled migrants. I saw a talk by Matt Barry, the CEO of freelancer, I believe he said he had some figures where it was showing 20% I think it was 20% of skilled migrants aren’t paying income tax, you know, because they don’t have a job, presumably. And 7% of skilled migrants are on unemployment benefits. These are the skilled ones. And so, you know, there are certainly arguments we can make, you know, in favor of immigration, you know, covers shortages where we have shortages. So you know what? I mean, yeah, but then yeah, it doesn’t seem to be panning out in Australia’s best interest at the moment. So, so yeah, we’ve suggested lowering it back to 2017,

Gene Tunny  11:30

levels, right? Okay, do you know for the top of your head what that was? I mean, I can look it up later and put it in the show notes. So

Owen Miller  11:36

500,000 net immigrants versus 650,000 at the moment, right?

Gene Tunny  11:42

So 500,000 would still be high relative to,

Owen Miller  11:47

oh, the world, sure, yeah.

Gene Tunny  11:49

No, I guess so, 500,000 we’re talking so this is for Australia. Is that? Yeah? 500,000 net immigrants. Yeah. Net immigrants. Okay, I’ll have a look at your policy, because that still sound to me that still sounds high relative to the sort of rates that we’ve had in the like, pre, you know, pre pandemic, and we also had, I guess, what the Mac the macro business guys, I think they want to, you probably know, the macro business guys that I think they want to take it back to about 100,000 or something. I mean, that might, I mean, who knows? That may be too low, but it’s sort of, for many years, it was sort of running around, I think 150 to 200 or two to 250 and then it sort of, you know, went up to this very high level, post pandemic. That’s okay, we’re gonna, we’re gonna,

Owen Miller  12:35

oh, sorry, you’re right. I did sorry. This was the, I was quoting the gross arrivals. Yeah, you’re right. Net arrivals is has been, yeah, you’re right. In 2017 net arrivals was 250,000

Gene Tunny  12:48

sorry, yeah. I think that’s probably, that sounds good. Yeah. That sounds fine. I mean, I think that’s sort of the level that yeah would be, well, definitely more sustainable than what we’re having now. I think the points you make about the rorting, I think they’re good. I think they’re good points. I think, unfortunately, there is, you know, quite a bit of that going on. So, so that’s good. Now I need to know, I want to ask about this owner occupier capital gains tax. Because So isn’t it the case. If you live in the principal place of residence long enough, is it over 12 months, you don’t, there’s no capital gains. Yeah, that’s my understanding. Yeah, yeah. Okay, so you’re tweaking this for people who own occupy and what they only occupy it for they occupy for only a few months, or something. Is that the, oh,

Owen Miller  13:35

we’re saying that even if you, even if you live it, in it for a long time, you should still have to pay, you should only get a 15% discount on on that gain, as opposed to 100%

Gene Tunny  13:47

so really, okay, that’s interesting. So

Owen Miller  13:50

one of the, one of the issues that people have with that is basically, you’ll sort of depart from the rest of the housing market. You know, it’s gone. Let’s say you bought your house for a million dollars. Now the price is around. You are 2 million. You sell yours. You know you’re gonna some of that 2 million is going to get taken away in tax and you can no longer buy the house near you. Yeah. But I guess what I was suggesting before that part of that rise was because there were these incentives for people to, like, want it to rise and everything. If housing prices were more steady, then, you know, maybe the prices rose, you know, $20,000 around you. And so this capital gains tax that you’re paying, you know, just wouldn’t be as significant.

Gene Tunny  14:33

Yeah, okay, so that’s, yeah, that’s quite a bold policy. Uh, what feedback are you getting on that? Oh, well, I

Owen Miller  14:40

mean, as I said, there was the, there was the idea that, you know, the house prices around you could escape, yeah, yeah. But then also, it’s worth noting that, you know, this could be phased in over, you know, decades even. So, you know, if, if we started to increase this tax and, you know, we did see, you know, terrible outcomes, you know, since it’s been rolled out slowly and be. Shocked or reversed? Yeah, it’s I should mention as well. Sorry, I said this was the biggest feature, perhaps just as large is we want to move towards land tax, but land tax in the way that Henry George proposed, not what we’re getting now. So, you know, some states offer quote, unquote land tax, but the primary place of residence is immune from this tax.

Gene Tunny  15:23

Yeah, gotcha. Okay, so this is just want to go back to this, yeah? Owner occupier, so capital gains tax, so you’re saying, only was it discounted 15 or 50% I couldn’t hear it clearly. Sorry,

Owen Miller  15:36

oh, sorry that they get a discount of 15% 15, like, 1415, yeah. Okay.

Gene Tunny  15:41

So that means they have to pay tax on the bulk of the the capital gain, so 85% of the capital gain, even though,

Owen Miller  15:52

oh, no wait, sorry, um, I’m quitting it the wrong way around. Oh, good, okay, they have to pay tax on, they have to pay tax on 15% of the capital gain. Sorry, Gotcha,

Gene Tunny  16:01

okay, okay, so that’s, that’s going to be, that’s not going to be as drastic, Okay, gotcha.

Owen Miller  16:07

Because I’m not an economist, it was keeping up with all these the

Gene Tunny  16:11

way I was sort of, yeah, I was interpreting my going, that sounds really people with their pitch box. Yeah, exactly. Well, but, well, I mean, I guess it’s interesting. It’s interesting proposal, because, I mean, there are a lot of concerns about inequality, and now, I mean oligarch is the word everyone’s talking about in the US. I mean less so in Australia. I mean, is this? Do you see this as a measure to address wealth inequality as well? Do you have policies regarding inequality? Yes,

Owen Miller  16:41

so especially for homelessness. So I guess homelessness is often mischaracterized, the causes, all that sort of thing. So there’s a graph I included here. They had a comparison of housing affordability versus homelessness for various American cities, and you can see this so closely correlated. You can see that, you know, housing affordability is, like, quite obviously, the number one driver of how many people are homeless, yeah. And so, yeah, by all these tax treatments, infusions, housing policy, we’re aiming to level the playing field more between owning versus renting. And then, you know, once there gets to be more renters, so there is about 30% at the moment in Australia, in Germany and Switzerland, it’s about 50% so basically, the more renters we have in Australia, the more rights they will achieve, which, you know, creates a virtuous cycle of making renting more and more appealing,

Gene Tunny  17:37

right? Okay, so what? What additional rights do you think renters should have? I mean, there have been changes in Queensland. I’m not sure exactly what’s happened in New South Wales. I mean, we had some changes to so that, you know, rents could only go up every 12 months. I mean, that just means they have a higher rental increase at the, you know, the start of a 12 month lease. What? What additional measures or rights do you think should be in tenancy agreements? Well, it

Owen Miller  18:12

really starts with no ground, no fault evictions. So if we’re going to create any extra rules that landlords have to follow, if they can count people, you know, at the drop of a hat, then it means that any of the other rules can’t easily be enforced. You know, you could say, like, Hey, you are meant to give me, you know, energy efficient appliances. Then you didn’t. And so then, you know, the landlord can say, Oh, well, you know, get out then. So, yeah, preventing against no fault evictions is really the starting point. One of the other things that we call for is an upgrade in extra rights for clean air. So we can think that as our standard of living gradually evolves over the years, you know, like internet is now seen as, you know, a basic necessity of living in modern society. And so if anything becomes commonplace in a home where the owner lives in it, then basically those facilities should also become expected in rental accommodation. And so, you know, things like air purifiers, having clean air, it helps you think, it helps you live longer, you know, staying healthy. And so we would like to see some minimum standards about clean air and apartments. Yeah, right.

Gene Tunny  19:31

And what’s your policy on social housing? Because one of the things we’ve seen in Australia is that state governments don’t invest in social housing anymore. And I mean, I guess economists have to blame for this, partly because for a long time, the common wisdom was that, oh, well, social housing is inefficient. It doesn’t make sense for governments to hold on to this social housing stock and have to look after it. You can get people can get stuck in social housing for years. And it’s not a really, you know, it’s not a really great way. Deliver to deliver the support, and you may as well just provide decent rent assistance. The problem, I guess, the mean, I guess the problem we’re starting to see now is just that, well, there are so many people are just falling through the cracks. Who just they do end up homeless. So I’m just wondering, what’s your policy on social housing? Please. Owen,

Owen Miller  20:21

yeah, well, actually, many people would be surprised to know, if you see a comparison of social housing worldwide, you know, the United States, anyone who’s been there can see that. You know, if you’re down on your luck in the United States, you can fall very far down the, you know, complete disdain for homeless people there, and yet they have more social housing, you know, as the proportion more social housing than Australia does. So Australia’s social housing is currently at 3.2% at the other end is the United Kingdom with 16% so we’re suggesting that the Australian Government should get to 10% public housing. So social housing includes public and then also nonprofits. But you know, unfortunately, you know, some nonprofits, some of them, have a tendency to sort of problem going, you see as well, like there’s this book dead a where they’re talking about all the money that’s been paid to Africa over the years as charity. And, you know, lots of that gets funneled off. And you know this, if the public housing is run by the government, their incentives are most aligned to, you know, actually look up the population, right?

Gene Tunny  21:35

Okay, gotcha, I might go back to the tax issues now with with capital gains. So you’re seeing a role for greater taxation of the capital gains so that there’s less what speculative investment in housing is that? Yeah,

Owen Miller  21:56

well, so you know something that’s making housing and appealing investment for many people, they regard that, you know, it’s safe that’s going to go up forever. Yeah, there’s this. Seems to be a correlation between these nations, where house prices stay more level, those nations seem to invest more in research and development. And you know, if you think about startups, here, for instance, the funding for startups is nothing like it is in the US. And yeah, it it seems like such a such a waste that, you know, the best thing we can possibly spend our money on is just buying a home and just leaving it there for decades. You know, like, what value are we actually adding and you know that comes into the justification for land tax as well. You know, if, if your gain is thanks to basically, the rest of society evolving around you, then, you know, shouldn’t the rest of society be rewarded for doing that? Like, why should you get the reward for just sitting

Gene Tunny  22:57

there? Right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think I know John’s got a he wants to come on. Well, yeah, I want to have John on to talk about George’s policies in a future episode. For sure, absolutely, just so on the tax so capital gains. Yep, you can, they’re certainly at it. There’s certainly income those capital gains, and there is a case for for taxing them. I mean, we’ve made an exception for owner occupied housing where people live in the house, if it’s their principal place of residence and and, I mean, there’s social policy reason, and it would be incredibly unpopular. And also, we don’t allow people to tax deduct mortgage payments, unless it’s for an investment property. So, yeah, that’s, that’s probably part of the, the reason to you have a discussion of imputed rent in your policy. So you’re, what’s the pirate, sorry, what’s fusion party’s views on this concept of in imputed rent, and how does that figure in your your housing policies? Yes,

Owen Miller  24:03

just a bit of background for everyone. So imputed correct me, if I’m wrong. Gene imputed rent is the idea that if, let’s say you and I, we both buy homes for a million dollars, I choose to live in mine, you choose to rent yours out. So if you’re collecting, say, $500 per week in rent, you have to pay tax on that income. So for me, living in this house, I’m getting, you know, a $500 per week benefit from living there, but I’m not paying any tax on that benefit. And so, you know, some people would say, you know, but you bought it, you should be able to do whatever you want with what you buy. Another view is that, you know, basically, I bought a money printing machine. And you know, if I’m able to print money every week, essentially, like and never pay tax on it. But I guess putting that aside, it’s worth noting. So in a few countries in Europe, they have imputed ran the UK. Used to be one of those, and they got rid of imputed rent explicitly to encourage home ownership, so that sort of, you know, resolved the debate. And so, you know, after discovering this, you know, it’s eye opening in terms of, how can we change our tax system to make it, you know, less skewed towards, you know, pushing everyone into you have to buy a home. And you know, with the different tax treatments for owner occupied homes, you know, it encourages people like you should spend as much money as you can afford on buying a home. And you know that obviously creates rich suburbs poor suburbs. It’s interesting to note as well that, you know, if you look at like domain, the real estate site, if you look at their list of top 10 most livable suburbs in Sydney, doesn’t match the list, you know, the price list. So you know the most livable suburb is not actually the most expensive. And so like double bay, for instance, it’s a very expensive place if you want to buy a house, an apartment, and yet it’s not livable. And you have to wonder, like, are all these people in double bay just lying to each other that it’s a great place to live there, right? Their property price is high,

Gene Tunny  26:08

yeah. How do they how do they assess livability? Does it have to do with transport links? Does it have to do with nightlife or,

Owen Miller  26:17

yeah? Yeah, not quite sure. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  26:20

I’m not. I don’t either. I’m not sure either. I mean Double Bay, I know. I guess it seems, I mean, it seems reasonably livable, but it is a nice place. It is. It can be hard to get a like, Get get a seat at a, you know, one of those cafes or restaurants there. I remember, I haven’t been there that offered. But I think, I think

Owen Miller  26:41

lavender Bay was number two in terms of livable. But not, yeah, not the most expensive. Yeah, interesting.

Gene Tunny  26:47

Yeah. I’ll have to have a look at that. Okay, so, so you’re not proposing to tax imputed rent, are you?

Owen Miller  26:53

Oh, well, no, not explicitly, but we are proposing to make it more even for renters in the same, you know, charging imputed rent would make things more even for renters, as do our policies. But we don’t. We’re not suggesting explicitly, let’s introduce imputed rent. Okay, a big motivation for that is, you know, like, we have to deal with political realities. Fusion says, like, here’s a new tax you’ve never heard of, and now you have to pay it. Yeah, I

Gene Tunny  27:19

think if you introduce that you’d have to introduce tax deductibility for mortgage interest payments as well, so that that’s, that’s something that’d probably have to go along with that. Okay, that’s interesting. I thought it was good. You had that discussion there in the in your policy now, what about, what about on the supply side? Lot of, a lot of the concerns about housing relate to, well, there’s just not enough housing stock where productivity is low. We’ve got, we’ve got a union that I won’t name, but that is allegedly, you know, responsible for holding up projects to to, you know, increase benefits their members have been done very well for their members, I must say. But a lot of concerns about, about that, about industrial relations in construction, there are concerns we’re not allowing enough development, enough greenfield development. What are your thoughts? What? What does fusion party proposed regarding supply, yeah.

Owen Miller  28:22

So I was looking, there’s a chart from where’s the source? St Louis, fed, yeah. So it’s a chart of dwelling completions per 100,000 people. And yeah. So Australia is leading the way above the UK, US, Canada, France. We’re building, you know, more dwellings per capita than these other countries are. And so in I believe it was 2020 Sydney had the second most cranes in the world, behind Dubai. And so this notion that, oh, well, let’s build quicker. Like, how quickly can we we’re already, we’re already building so fast. And so another supply argument that gets brought up is, you know, basically, let’s have lots of urban sprawl. Let’s subsidize urban sprawl. If only, you know, various councils would just, you know, get out of the way. And you know, we can build a new you know, we can build these new towns in the middle of nowhere, and, you know, create like industry hubs to spur them on. But you know, even one argument is that nobody wants to live there. And we can also see, so there’s this mathematical concept of benford’s law. There’s a notion that some numbers like, if we say city population, it’s more common to have a city population that starts with the number one and then the number two and sort of declining as you go along. And it doesn’t matter what what base you use. So, you know, we normally can in base 10, if you change the base, it’s still more common. So, you know, it’s an odd phenomenon. I mean, it sounds like a joke when you first hear a bit, but so city populations already have this odd phenomenon happening to them. Right? And so for you to say, like, No, I’m going to intervene, you know, the government is going to subsidize these new cities. Well, if you do spur on a population growth in, say, golden, then you’re just going to create all these smaller places nearby with, you know, the previous population of gold. And essentially, so, you know, this is basically a natural phenomenon. I don’t think you should fight it in this way of urban sprawl. I should note as well, many people in the fusion party, including myself, you know, have an affection for the environment, and so we don’t like urban sprawl from that perspective, either.

Gene Tunny  30:35

Okay, so does that mean you would favor greater redevelopment in in the cities, in the inner cities, relaxing heritage restrictions, that sort of thing, character protection.

Owen Miller  30:49

I’m hesitant to relax her protections, because, you know, like, what’s the point of actually living in the city? You know, it has to, it has to still maintain something about it, you know, like, we don’t, we don’t we want a country that actually has a culture, don’t we want cities that we’re proud of? You know, if we want to move to just like a warehouse of people, you know, who does that serve? Although it can be a bit ridiculous, I included in our housing policy situation in Brunswick. So there’s how many was it? I believe there’s like 714, old. Power what do they call them? Power substation? From the outside, it looks like a shed, a shed built in the 1920s or so, you know, they’re dilapidated. They’ve covered in graffiti. And yet, this new development in Brunswick, they’re going to have, like, this old thing in this like glass atrium. You know, it’s completely unused now, it’s just an old shed. You know, some old buildings are glorious. Some, you know, a good example is the council’s getting in the way.

Gene Tunny  31:52

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  32:27

Now, back to the show. What type of development Do you Do you see occurring So, broadly speaking, what, what type of development, where do you see the people living will will you? Is it in well, one

Owen Miller  32:42

of the main things is, you know, let’s create a better alignment between government and, you know, this, the rest of society who wants to build these homes? Because at the moment, you know, Council, they don’t have too much incentive to prove the extra development. You know, they could get extra rates from the people who live there. But you know, that’s in a few years time, in the next people’s next people’s term, there are more immediate concerns. And so one of the big parts of our housing policy is the introduction of the Livret A at a it’s a government bond. It’s hugely popular in France. 82% of people have one. And so the Australian version of the lever at a we would use, once people put their money into the bond, then this bond would be used to fund city building projects, you know, sustainable infrastructure, high speed rail. I mentioned before that we don’t want to create, you know, urban sprawl in middle of nowhere. But if we had, like, high speed rail connections between, you know, all of Australia’s, at least the East Coast, large cities. Then, you know, easier transport around cities would also allow, like, if we think of, you know, Ricardian advantage. And you know, why is this city rich? What does it do better than other cities? And so with much easier travel, you know, different pockets could spring up around Australia that have their own unique societies, their unique economic advantages. And, yeah, basically, we could spur on the evolution of society even faster,

Gene Tunny  34:14

right? Okay, so it is a form of decentralization, is it? I mean, you’re saying you’re not supportive of urban sprawl, but you well, you’re supportive of connecting our major cities up with with other centers, and then that can encourage population growth in those other centers,

Owen Miller  34:33

plus, you know, places along the way that might be that could grow further. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  34:38

Gotcha. I think I might have been chatting with John about this was, is there the idea of this Turing? Oh,

Owen Miller  34:47

yeah, yeah. So that was from The Science Party, so we suggested having a charter city near Canberra. So, yeah, charter cities, you know, I guess maybe you know more about this gene, like worldwide. You know, if you are. For these special immigration permits, where it’s like easier for foreigners to move to this place. And then, yeah, if it starts off with some sort of economic reason for why this city is going to succeed in some industry, then yeah, you know, more people will move there. But, you know, I guess this stuff, it’s hard to achieve. I mean, you see, like the city building projects being pursued by the Emirates by the Saudis at the moment. And it’s really hard to start a city out of nothing. I mean, why does anyone need to be there? But I guess it is an interesting way to look at like, how can we quickly spur on, you know, science, technological development, and, yeah, like, this is one way to achieve it,

Gene Tunny  35:46

yeah, gotcha, okay, okay, yeah, I thought that cheering idea was the city idea was, that was, I thought that was interesting. I mean, I think, yeah, cheering, obviously. I mean, huge, huge contribution. So, great name. So absolutely. So I might go over your recommendation summary, because there’s a good summary of your your housing policy, and I’ll put a link to this in the show notes. So one abolish stamp duty and then introduce taxes on unimproved value of land. So I think there’s a lot of sort of economic logic behind this? So, yep, I think that gets a that can get a tick of approval eradicate homebuyer grants and schemes. So what’s your concern about these first home owner grants, etc? 

Owen Miller  36:34

Well, they’re not a long term solution. It’s just another band aid you see over the last, say, 20 years. Yeah, liberal labor governments, they only implement band aids. And so one of the current ones being proposed is, you know, let’s let people access their super earlier to buy a home, especially for first time buyers. Well, I mean, you know, home buyers, the first time buyers, obviously haven’t saved up much super yet. Anyway, you know, besides, you know, we see this like equilibrium, where basically house prices are basically as expensive as people can afford. And so if you give people extra spending power, well, the house prices will go up by pretty much the same amount. Obviously, the people who actually get the money actually get, you know, if we say first time buyers get this extra cash, then they’re the ones who benefit most. But if they’re getting, say, 50k extra, it’s not like, you know, it’s not an actual 50k improvement, it’s maybe a 10k improvement, right?

Gene Tunny  37:33

Okay, okay. I mean, we’ll have to, I haven’t. I’m trying to think of, I’ve seen a good study on what that that impact is, I mean, I agree there is some impact. I might have to think about just how large it is, and I’m but, you know, it’s debatable. So I think, you know the point about the first homeowner grants. I think, I think so less lakes made a similar one, and so I think there’s a reasonable amount of support there. There’s probably a question about the magnitude of that impact. But fair enough, we might, we’ll move on. And you’ve got, then this is another, I mean, this is, I think what you’ve done is you’ve got, you know, a set of proposals you’ve thought about. There’s a they, I mean, you’re, there’s a risk of, you know, I mean, some of these things are going to be hugely unpopular as you’re as you’re aware. That doesn’t mean they’re they’re not, they’re not good policy measures. So this is, this is interesting. You you want to stop excluding property wealth from the means testing of government benefits. What government benefits do you have in mind? Can you give us an illustration of what you’re talking about there, please. Owen, yes, I believe the, I believe

Owen Miller  38:43

it was the age pension. So there’s a notion, you know, are you basically poor enough qualify for these ongoing government payments? And in New South Wales, I believe the your primary place of residence in the valuations, that’s capped at 150k so, you know, if you own a mansion, you know, and they’re assessing your assets, it’ll get, you know, marked down as only 150k worth of assets. And I mean, you know, we can obviously see the problem with this. If, if people are paying a mortgage over, say, 30 years, if, if everyone is spending as much money as they can on a home, and then, you know, we say, like, later in life, should we pay this person all these government benefits, like they only have their home and, you know, their quote, unquote cash poor like, you know, let’s, let’s give them the benefits, versus if the person had been spending all they could afford for their entire life on gold, yeah, tell them, like, are you really poor? Why don’t you just sell something that’s called,

Gene Tunny  39:41

yeah, gotcha, gotcha. I mean, there’s, yeah, I think with the appreciation of property prices, there’s, there’s more of an argument for that. Again, it’s, it’s one of these things that, you know, we’ve made this judgment as a society that we, you know, we find that so. But that we don’t approve of that, or there’s a widespread view that against that sort of proposal, even though it, you know, there is some there is some sense to it. I guess it’s got, I mean, obviously, you know, a lot of pensioners vote. I mean, I guess they all vote, generally,

Owen Miller  40:17

I guess as well. The other thing I’d say in defense of introducing this change is that, you know, the city changes around people. You know, as we said before, the house prices have gone up in value. Because, you know, Australia has changed. These cities have changed. And so when you say, like, you know, I’ve lived here for 50 years, well, you lived in basically somewhere else years ago. And so I guess, you know, land tax best captures that if the city changes around you, then your ongoing taxes change as a result of it. I recall John was giving the example of, let’s say, a rubbish dump gets built next to your house. And so, you know, you can rightfully demand that, you know, society pays you some sort of compensation for ruining your place of residence now, but if it’s the opposite, if you know, a train station is built nearby, nobody says like, oh, well, you know, now that I have such a better place to live, you know, I should give back to society some of this compensation. So, yeah, we can think as well. I mean, you know, in Brisbane, just recently, you know cyclone Alfred, you look at the photos of the beach afterwards, and so who would want to buy a beachfront home in Brisbane anymore? So you know, those people are going to be worrying. Well, I spent all this money on this beachfront mansion, and now it’s smashed in value because, like, who’s going to buy this now, if more of their money had been going to land tax over the years as opposed to the asset price, then, you know, their loss would be far reduced now. So, you know, here’s a way where rich people can get on board for these tax changes as well. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  41:55

yeah. There are a lot of other interesting ideas, and we probably won’t have time to go through them, but I’ll, I’ll put a link to this in the show notes. So very interesting ideas, government shall fund and operate an open source service for real estate listings and history. So yeah, that would smash some of the business models for for what is it domain and for real estate? Yeah, right. Okay, what do you see as the benefits of of this policy measure? Diffusion

Owen Miller  42:25

is very big into openness, transparency and so, you know, getting into the housing market, it’s such, you know, it’s such an important aspect of everybody’s life, and everybody wants to live somewhere, like there might be exceptions, you know, for something this critical to be in the hands of people who don’t have the same incentives as society like, it’s just a recipe for disaster. I mean, there was an instance real page, I think it was called this company in the US, they had a monopoly, and they, you know, they run, they offer real estate data, and so they changed their algorithm, or something, how they report the prices. They were telling these people that the prices were now 14% more expensive. And so then all the landlords thought, oh, shit, you know, I better keep up with the market. I better raise my rents 14% Yeah. I mean, you can see it’s a very problematic situation to have. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  43:18

I remember seeing some of the stories on that? Yeah, absolutely. Okay, that’s interesting. But what about this idea about an open source service for landlord reviews and background checks residents shall be made aware of the criminal background of a potential or current landlord. Is that? Is that an issue? Is that a concern?

Owen Miller  43:36

It seems very asymmetric. So you know, if I’m going to move into a place to rent, you know, the landlord wants to check, you know, what’s Owen’s criminal background, what’s he going to get up to? This person has keys to my house? Like, what if, you know I’m there sleeping at night, they can just sneak in into my bedroom. I want to know about their criminal background. You see, like, um, you know, sexual assault in Australia is still rampant, you know, physical assault, you know, sort of non sexual assault, still rampant. This person has keys to where I’m living, like, I want to know,

Gene Tunny  44:10

yeah, that’s a fair point. And I think so this could be part of this greater rights for tenants that you were, that you were talking about before, right? Oh, and there are these other, the other, the other aspects of your policy, I found interesting that you want to publish data. So the government, using data from universities, in the tax office, shall publish data about future earnings and job titles based on each student’s degree TAFE course to allow potential students to assess whether the education is worthwhile and whether they should visit Australia for their education. I think that’s that’s interesting. And so that’s so people can figure out whether, okay, is this going to get me a useful job? Use that it can help me get a, you know, help me get into the property market at one stage? I think, yeah. Yeah,

Owen Miller  45:00

they’re messing with people’s future with their advertising. I mean, I’ve seen billboards. It says, you know, come to whatever university, get a degree in sustainability. I think it was, yeah, yeah. The first question my head was, like, sustainability, like, that’s not really a job title. If I did this degree, like, sort of, what would be the use of it? Then, you know, most people go into university. You know they’re 1718, you know they they haven’t learned sort of all these cons that are going on in the world. You hear, it’s a regular phenomenon that you know someone study. If you look at, you know what someone studied at university, and you try to guess their job title, say, 10 years later, you know, it’s yeah, it’s anyone’s guess. It’s yeah, gotcha the universities, yeah, it’s just conceivably,

Gene Tunny  45:47

they could do that pretty easily, because they’ve got the living in Australia. Data Set used to be, I think it used to be called, made it. But essentially, the, you know, you know that data set, the data set that the ABS manages, where they link up tax data, they’ve got their census data, they’ve got social security data, and they’ve got this huge, you know? Well, it’s not synthetic. What’s the right word? They’ve it’s, it’s the piece together, the all of these administrative data sets to create this one big data set, like matching all of these records, and conceivably, you could achieve what you’re recommending very cost effectively. Now, there are limits on the access to it at the moment, but they should be able to produce some summary data along the lines of of what you’re suggesting,

Owen Miller  46:42

it seems, yeah, like, you know, if we combine all the government departments, then, yeah, there’s information they already have, yeah,

Gene Tunny  46:48

yeah, yeah. So I think that’s reasonably feasible. That could be, yeah, you could get a pretty good return on investment from that. So yeah, big TIG of approval on that one. So before we go, I want to go back to this liberate a just to make sure I understand it. Because this is so this is a French idea. Is it a bit so your recommendation, a bank account, liver at a shall be created available to all Australian residents. Account holders can have some options of risk reward with the account being used to fund city building, including the creation of high speed, high speed rail and public housing projects. The increased land tax revenue in these places shall go towards subsidizing low income housing and amongst the public housing projects, as well as towards a return on investment for the liver day clients. Okay, so which, which bank is it? And, yeah. I mean, how does it work? So,

Owen Miller  47:44

how it works in France? Yeah. So it’s government bonds. You know, in essence, you put your money there, it makes the money available to be spent by the government. Except, I guess I don’t know, many people aren’t familiar with government bonds. So it’s marketed in France as though it’s the bank account. When you’re interacting with it, multiple banks offer it, and to an everyday person, it behaves the same as the bank account, and so that’s partly why it’s so popular. 82% of people in France have one. It’s capped at 29,000 euros, and it offers tax free returns. Admittedly, the returns aren’t great. I think it’s around two to 3% at the moment. But the idea here is that if we could, you know, if we’re going to tax housing more strictly, then you know, we need some other way for Australians to invest. And I guess they already had the share market. And so if they’re not going there, you know, what else can we offer them? And so investing in our future, investing in our cities, you know, it’s a no brainer. It’s so aligned to, you know, the interests of both making money and to, you know, society. I mean, um, Brisbane, for instance, you know, they’re building a village to host the Olympians in the future. The Queensland Government, they didn’t want to actually build the homes. They sold off those rights to someone else. Yeah, and you know who bought the rights? The Saudi Development Fund. You know, some other foreign government thinks it’s a good investment build homes there. Yet, for some reason, the Queensland Government doesn’t think that’s good investment. Think that’s good investment. And so, you know, if people want to get in, if people, if everyday Australians, want to invest in high speed rail in city building, like I think many people would be, you know, chomping at the bit to get this chance,

Gene Tunny  49:35

right? Okay, so I have to look at this liberal day concept, interesting idea. I mean, traditionally. I mean, I don’t think our governments, probably are, they really don’t offer the retail bond offering, do they? I mean, they’re mainly selling to the big investors. That’s a, that’s an interesting concept. So it’s an on demand. So it’s an ON. Call bank account effectively,

Owen Miller  50:02

I’m not quite sure about like, any sort of time delays.

Gene Tunny  50:05

Yeah, I’ll have to look into it just to see how they manage it and what the financial, the finances of it are. But yeah, potentially an interesting concept, right? Oh, and this has been great. I’ve enjoyed talking about your housing policy and chatting about these important issues before we wrap up. Are there any other points you’d like to make before we before we wrap up, please?

Owen Miller  50:26

Oh, yeah, I should just clarify one last thing about the deliver it a I mentioned the high speed rail. Yeah. So if we imagine, if we imagine moving towards land tax in the way that Henry George proposed, so let’s say the land tax. And, you know, let’s use Goldman as an example. Again, all the tax revenues collect from land tax in Goulburn. If we then build high speed rail through Goulburn, we can say that most of it was attributable to the high speed rail. So let’s give some of that extra cash to those investors who invested in the high speed rail. And so this like easy attribution for investment means that it’s a lot easier to make it happen. And so, so, yeah, you know, governments can more easily spend money on this. Citizens can get the return, but, but yeah, to close out, Gene, yeah, as you said, there are losers in this policy. But you know, hopefully people will see that overall, it better aligns the interests of Australian society with the interests of the government. So hopefully people can, yeah, hopefully people can see that this will create a brighter future for us, right? Oh,

Gene Tunny  51:37

very good. Helen Miller, the convener of fusion party and the fusion party’s federal candidate for wills. Thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed the conversation. Thanks, Gene Righto, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com or a voicemail via speak pipe, you can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you, then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

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Credits

Thanks to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

2024 Highlights: Reagan’s Budget Czar on Trump | Greedy Jobs | Super Abundance | Buffett in Omaha | Housing & Immigration

Host Gene Tunny discusses significant economic issues from the year. He features clips from interviews with experts on various topics, including the economic consequences of Donald Trump’s re-election, the U.S. budget deficit, the gender pay gap, and environmental impact. President Reagan’s budget director David Stockman criticizes Trump’s policies for being anti-capitalist, citing a $8 trillion increase in public debt. Fiscal policy wonk Dan Mitchell argues that higher taxes are not the solution to the U.S. budget deficit, as spending is the primary issue. Leonora Risse (Assoc. Prof., University of Canberra) explains the concept of “greedy jobs” contributing to the gender pay gap. Marion Tupy of the Cato Institute discusses the long-term decline in commodity prices, and Daniel Lawse of Verdis Group emphasizes the need for sustainable, long-term thinking in business and policy. Daniel also reflects on the modest lifestyle of Warren Buffett, another Omaha resident. John August discusses the impact of immigration on Australia’s housing crisis.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com.

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Apple Podcast and Spotify.

Timestamps for EP265

Links relevant to the conversation

Episodes featuring the clips:

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/01/28/reagans-budget-boss-david-stockman-on-trumps-economic-policies-ep224/

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/04/17/is-uncle-sam-running-a-ponzi-scheme-with-the-national-debt-w-dr-dan-mitchell-ep235/

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/03/10/the-gender-pay-debate-understanding-the-factors-behind-the-gap-w-dr-leonora-risse-ep230/

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/10/16/abundance-mindset-exploring-the-super-abundance-thesis-w-marian-tupy-cato-institute-ep258/

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/06/01/helping-seattle-aquarium-others-go-to-net-zero-and-beyond-w-daniel-lawse-verdis-group-ep242/

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/04/17/housing-crisis-and-immigration-australias-tough-choices-w-john-august-ep236/

Leonora’s review of Career and Family: Women’s Century-Long Journey toward Equity, by Claudia Goldin

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1475-4932.12716?domain=author&token=UPATKK2WTIAEZ49UMRMV

Principle of Charity podcast episodes on degrowth:

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/can-degrowth-save-the-planet/id1571868650?i=1000674757240

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/can-degrowth-save-the-planet-pt-2-on-the-couch/id1571868650?i=1000675655623

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Transcript: Is DeFi the Future of Finance? Exploring VirtuSwap’s Vision w/ Prof. Evgeny Lyandres – EP262

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:00

Gene, welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host, Gene, Tunny, I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode. Please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello. Thanks for tuning in to the show. This is the 2024 highlights episode, and this episode, I want to play some clips from some of my favorite episodes of 2024 Okay, to start off, we probably should cover one of the biggest stories of the year, if not the biggest story, which was the re election or of Donald Trump as US President. So that is going to have some very profound economic consequences. And I chatted with my friend and colleague, Darren Brady Nelson about it days after the news on the show. So that was a few episodes ago. Darren is someone who is supportive of Trump on the show, I’ve had critics of Trump and one of those prominent critics in the States is somebody by the name of David Stockman, who was Ronald Reagan’s Director of Office, of management and budget. So he was a budget official for Ronald Reagan, who is the celebrated Republican president of the 1980s and Stockman is one of the never Trumpers, and I had a very interesting conversation with him early In the year, and I wanted to play a clip from that episode, because I think Stockman is someone who deserves to be listened to, and I think, personally, I think he makes some good points. So without further ado, let’s play the first clip, and this is David Stockman on Trump’s war on capitalism. You argue that he is a clear and present danger to capitalist prosperity. Could you explain, David? How do you How can we reconcile these things? I mean, Donald Trump does seem to be the exemplar of a capitalist, but yet he’s a threat to capitalism. How do we reconcile these facts?

David Stockman  03:05

Well, those are great questions. I don’t think really he’s an exemplar of capitalism, and we can get into that. I think he’s an exemplar of getting lucky when the Fed created so much inflation and asset prices and made debt so cheap that if you were a speculator in New York City Real Estate or elsewhere, you possibly made a lot of book wealth. But I don’t think it was capitalist genius behind it. That’s the first point. The second point is that his policies were really almost anti capitalist in some common sense. Notion of conservative economics. To have a healthy capitalist economy, you need three things. One, fiscal rectitude. You can’t be running up the public debt, spending like there’s no tomorrow, and having the government grow and mushroom and impinge in every direction on the economy. You can’t have easy money and a central bank that is flooding the system with cheap credit and excess liquidity. You can’t have a government that is really anti free market, which is what trade protectionism is all about, and he’s the biggest protectionist in the White House, you know, since, I don’t know, Hoover signed smooth Holly in 1931 so all of his policies were really in the wrong direction. Now, I do concede in the book that the one abiding virtue that Donald Trump has is he’s got all the right enemies. Okay? The establishment hates him, The New York Times, The Washington Post, CNN, The Washington what I call unit party establishment, the leadership and the long standing careerist of both parties can’t stand him, but basically, it’s because he’s an outsider. Because he’s unwilling to conform, and he’s pretty obnoxious and unpredictable. That’s why they’re against him. The point of the book, though, is none of his power his policies were wrong, even if he had the right enemies, and nothing that he did help the economy or addressed the huge long term problems we have of a runaway public debt, of a government that’s way too big and too costly and too intrusive, and especially at the heart of the matter a central bank that is out it’s a rogue central bank. It’s out of control, and yet Trump was constantly on their case, demanding even easier money, lower interest rates, even more, you know, of the same that got us into, you know, the huge bubbles and troubles that came from them. So the point of my book was to say he had a chance. He’s got a four year record, we can look at it as terrible. It offers nothing in terms of remediation of our great problems and putting us in a different direction for the future. So, you know, don’t waste the opportunity. And you know, that’s about where I come out,

Gene Tunny  06:20

right? Oh, okay, so you write about what you call the Donald’s reckless fiscal and monetary policy. So we might talk about fiscal first. Now, among other things, you talk about the most grotesque act of fiscal malfeasance in American history. So that was something that Trump was associated with you argue, are you talking about the the big tax cut, the Trump tax cut in 2017 is that? Is that something you see as as reckless? That’s

David Stockman  06:51

part of it. But I’m looking at the overall picture and the data, the big top line data on spending, and borrowing on the public debt. Now let’s just take it down to the core metric, which is the public debt. I mean, if you’re running huge deficits and spending far beyond your willingness or ability to tax, it comes out in the public debt. When Trump became president in wrong terms, the public debt was about 20 trillion. When he left, it was 28 that’s 8 trillion of growth, 8 trillion of debt, public debt in four years. You let me ask the question, when did when did we get the first 8 trillion of public debt, and how long did it take us to get there? The answer is, in 203, it took us 216 years, 43 presidents, to rack up 8 trillion of debt. He did it in four years. That’s kind of the bottom line. It puts it in perspective, in terms of how big the error was. If we look at other more conventional measures, you get the same picture.

Gene Tunny  08:01

Okay, so that was David Stockman, who was President Reagan’s Director of Office of Management and Budget, and he’s certainly no fan of President Trump, certainly, I mean, Trump is going to have big consequences for the economy. There’s a lot of concern about a global trade war. There’s concerns about, I mean, really, will he be able to get the the budget into shape he has Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy at the Department of government efficiency. It remains to be seen how much real influence they will have and to what extent they’ll be able to to get the budget under control. One of the challenges, of course, is the the role of the entitlement program, Social Security and Medicare, which are such big parts of the budget, and just they’re on autopilot. Really, they’re, they’re demand driven. They respond to people’s needs that the entitlements are dictated by the acts of Congress, so they’re very hard to change, right? Oh, so on the the issue of getting the budget under control, I’d like to play a clip from my interview with Dan Mitchell. So I spoke to Dan in episode 235 in April, and it was about his new book, The Greatest Ponzi scheme on Earth. So it’s about us, government debt. So Dan is one of my favorite commentators. He’s got a really great blog called International liberty. If you’re not subscribed to that, definitely check it out. I mean, Dan’s coming from a libertarian perspective, someone who’s skeptical of. Of big government. So I’m generally sympathetic with with with that. So yes, I think it’s a it’s a good, good blog. So yeah, regardless of your views. So it’s definitely worth checking out because it’s Dan has a lot of good facts and talks about empirical work, empirical studies. So definitely worth, worth checking out. Even if you’re you think you’re unlikely to to agree with Dan. Okay, so let’s, let’s play a clip from my conversation with Dan, the way I set up this. This part of it was, I asked Dan about why he thinks higher taxes aren’t the solution to the US budget deficit, this large structural budget deficit they have. I made the point that, look, you’ve got these entitlement programs that the government doesn’t want to reform, so maybe the government, I mean, I was implying that maybe the there’s no choice but to increase taxes. Not that I’d necessarily recommend that. But how are they going to repair the budget? So that’s the that was the setup. So let’s hear what Dan has to say? Well, I

Dan Mitchell  11:24

guess there are two things that are important to understand. The Congressional Budget Office, every year publishes a long run forecast. And by long run that they’re looking out 30 years, they publish this long run forecast of the US economy, and in that document, the most recent one came out just last month. I think it was maybe two months ago, but it showed that revenues are above their long run average, spending is also above the long run average. And if you look at the forecast, 30 years out, the revenue burden is going to climb to record levels because, mostly because of real bracket creep. In other words, as you know, even in a sluggish growth economy, you know, people are going to sort of, their incomes are going to increase, they’re going to go into higher tax brackets. So the government winds up getting bonus tax payments with even modest levels of economic growth. So the tax burden is heading to be at an all time high, but because government spending is projected to grow much faster than the private sector, it means that that that we’re falling farther and farther behind. So just as a matter of pure math, our problem is more than 100% on the spending side of the budget. Again, revenue is climbing as a share of GDP, but because spending is climbing much, much faster. Why on earth would we want to increase taxes on the American people for a problem that is more than 100% on the spending side of the budget? But that’s just a math argument. Now let’s look at what I call the public choice, slash economic issue, which is that if you put taxes on the table. What are politicians going to do? They’re going to increase spending. And not only that, if they get the taxes through, the economy is going to suffer. Now, I’m never one to say, Oh, you raised this tax or that tax, there’s going to be a recession. I worry more about if you raise this tax or that tax, the long run, growth rate will decline, and even if it only declines a small amount, maybe two tenths of 1% a year, that has massive long run implications because of the wedge effect over time and then. And I think that even left wing economists, the honest ones, are going to admit that higher marginal tax rates and work saving and investing are not good for growth. So as GDP gets smaller and smaller over time, at least in terms of compared to some baseline projection, that means work on tax revenue, because there’s less national income to tax. So what’s the bottom line? Politicians will spend more money because of the higher taxes, and the higher taxes won’t generate as much revenue. And you don’t want to know what the most powerful evidence for this is. I think I did the data for the for the 15 countries of the old European Union. Other words, the core Western European countries that would be most analogous to the United States, or, for that matter, Australia, you know, relatively rich by world standards, Western oriented nations, and what did I show in the European Union? You go back and I did a five year average. So nobody could accuse me of cherry picking just one year that was favorable to my analysis. I did a five year average for the last half of the 1960s and I looked at government spending as a share of GDP, taxes of the share of GDP, and government debt as a share of GDP and taxes. Between the end of the 1960s and the most recent five years, the tax burden in Western Europe increased by 10 percentage points of GDP. Now politicians in Western Europe, in these various countries, Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands, et cetera, et cetera, they. Said, Well, we have to raise taxes, because we have red ink, we have deficits in debt. So I said, Okay, taxes went up by an enormous amount as a share of GDP between the late 60s and today. What happened to government debt? Did they use this massive increase in the tax burden to lower government debt? No government debt during that period doubled as a share of GDP. In other words, politicians spent every single penny of that new revenue, plus some. So when I debate some of my left wing friends, I tell them, show me an example anywhere in the world where we’re giving politicians more money to spend has resulted in better long run fiscal performance. It just doesn’t happen. By contrast, I’ve gone through the IMS World Economic Outlook Database, and I have found not a lot, unfortunately, but I found many examples of countries that, for multi year periods, had government spending growing at 2% a year or less. And what do you find in those cases when they’re spending restraint? And we talked about this, by the way, we have an entire chapter in the book where I cite some of these good examples. When you have spending restraint, deficits go down, the burden of government spending as a share of GDP goes down. You have success. Yeah, I couldn’t. We could have had some blank pages in the book and lift and entitled that chapter success stories of higher taxes, because there wouldn’t be anything to write.

Gene Tunny  16:33

Okay, that’s good stuff from Dan Mitchell, from Center for freedom and prosperity. I think it is He? He was, once upon a time, he was at the Cato Institute. He’s a well known commentator in the US on fiscal policy issues. He’s on CNBC, Fox Business, etc. And yep, he’s a he’s a good economist, and he’s a terrific commentator. And I’m really grateful that I’ve been able to have him on the show as frequently as he’s been on the show. So I’ll put a link in the show notes to to that episode and to the others that I play clips from. So yep, if you if you liked what you heard from Dan there, then definitely, definitely check out that episode. What I liked about that? I think he made a really good point about how politicians will, they will find a way to spend any additional revenue. I think we all know that’s that’s generally true. I mean, I suppose not always. There are times when politicians act responsibly, say, in Australia, from about the late 80s through to maybe yeah, I guess the Yeah, essentially, until the late 2000s we had very responsible Treasurers and governments, and then we seem to have abandoned that since then, unfortunately, and in the US, we had the period when you had Bill Clinton and the House GOP led by Newt Gingrich, they were cooperating on the budget and managed to repair the US budget. So there are times when politicians have been, have been, have done the right thing, but I think generally, they can find ways to spend any additional tax revenue, as as Dan Mitchell is pointing out. And I mean, they all the politicians. I mean, one thing you notice is that they love going to the openings of the the movies, hanging out with Chris Hemsworth and all of the the Hollywood stars. That’s something that we see here in Australia, where there’s very substantial subsidies to the film industry. Okay, so that was Dan Mitchell, thought that was a great clip. I think I’ve played parts of that in other episodes through the year on tax and government versus the private sector. I think I may have played a bit of Dan in that, but it’s good stuff. So it’s, it’s worth, it’s worth replaying every now and then. Right? Oh, let’s move on to another clip. And this is about another issue that I come back to every now and again on the show. It’s this issue of the gender pay gap. And, you know, this is a very, you know, it’s very political this issue. And there are a lot of people who say, Oh, well, it’s, you know, this is terrible, and it’s an example of discrimination, is exploitation. Then other people say, Well, hang on, it’s, this is a multivariate, uh, phenomenon, and it’s, it’s due to the the industries that. Women work in, or the occupations that they choose, but then you get the counter argument. Well, hang on, those industries and occupations, they were imposed upon women, in some cases, or women by the, you know, the patriarchy, or gender norms, etc. So there’s a big debate about the gender pay gap that I’ve tried to cover on the show in an objective way. So just hearing all of the arguments and just thinking critically about what the data, what the evidence tell us, and one of the people that I’ve really valued talking to about the gender pay gap, is Leonora Reese, and she is a an associate professor at University of Canberra. She’s also an expert panel member for the Fair Work Commission, and that’s the federal body that regulates industrial relations in Australia, and earlier this year, in March, I interviewed Leonora about a new gender pay gap report that the federal government released, and that generated a lot of debate within Australia. And I was just alluding, well, I was just going through what some aspects of that debate are, the the question of whether you’re comparing like with like, etc. There was a criticism of the report that was very strident by the well known economics commentator for the Australian, very good economist, Judith Sloan. And that is, that was, that was how I set up this part of the conversation with Leonora. I mentioned that that article by by Judith, which was critical of that report. So that is the context for this. This part, this clip in which Leonora and I talk about this notion of greedy jobs. So greedy jobs, this is one possible explanation for part of the gender pay gap. So let’s hear from Leonora. I want to ask about Claudia golden because Claudia golden, she won the Nobel Prize for Economics last year. Judith Sloan quoted her work in so in Judas article and Judith because Judith is saying, Well, this is all nonsense, because this is just all Yes. You’re not comparing like with like. It’s it’s all just explained by difference, differences in composition, different choices people make, and she was interpreting Claudia golden. So this Judith is interpreting Claudia golden as saying that the gender pay gap, it’s mostly due to the fact that there’s this premium for long and unpredictable hours, and men are more likely to work those jobs, pursue that pursue those jobs because women are more likely to be carers and they don’t have the Yeah, they they’re more Yeah, they’re less likely to want to pursue those jobs like as males, pursue them so disproportionately. So what do you think about that as a theory. I mean, what? And because I only were chatted about Claudia Golden’s work before or since the Nobel Prize was announced. So would you be able to comment on that? Please?

Leonora Risse  23:51

Sure, absolutely. So Claudia Golden’s the concept that she’s coined here is greedy jobs to reflect these particular jobs in the workforce that demand a lot of you as a worker to work long hours, to be on call, on weekends, on late shifts, and to be rewarded for that. That’s the important part. So to be paid overtime rates, to be fast tracked your promotion, to get bonuses in reward for for being, I guess, more available to your employer. I think it’s partly a symptom of capitalist society as well. You know, to really, to really draw as much of the worker that you can out in terms of their time, their loyalty, their commitment. And so Claudia Golden’s work brings the gender dynamic into that. This concept brings the gender dynamic into that, because the way that society and policy is structured is that it forces couples, if we’re looking at a male and female couple, to make a choice. Services with as a household as to which of them are going to be that particular worker and be on call, and which of them are going to attend to caring responsibilities, to household tasks at home. So collectively, they’re maximizing or optimizing their total income and trying to balance, you know, both both spectrums. So the way that gender norms give rise is that it tends to be, on average, the male partner who will put their hand up for those greedy jobs, and females who who would opt to, you know, be on call at home, basically. And so the gender pay gap widens, even on an hourly basis, because this, there’s this premium attached with those types of jobs, and they’re rewarded, you know, it’s, it’s seen as a positive thing in workplace culture. And so the my, you know, the way that I interpret Claudia Golden’s work, and she articulates this, I think, pretty clearly in her book, career and family, is that unless you have gender equity at home, it’s very hard to achieve gender equity in the paid workforce. So as long as there’s some sort of gender division at home, you just don’t have that time availability in the paid workforce. So she’s actually advocating for for gender equality. She’s not saying this rationalizes or legitimizes the existence of the gender pay gap. She says it’s a an explanation that needs attention and that we should be looking at. How do we look for ways to reduce this culture of expecting workers to be working such extensive hours and to be on call? How can they be more substitutable with each other? So you know, if you’re not available, it doesn’t matter, because your colleague can step in, and she gives examples from the industry of pharmacy, the pharmacy industry, where that that is, is a change in cultural practice, and that allowed more women actually to advance in that industry. So her, you know, the action or the policies that emerge from that are ones that start to address that existing inequity in the system and steer us towards something that’s more equitable, and I would say, also healthier as well. Now, other people might interpret that differently, but I think that’s a very, very firm and widespread way of expressing Claudia Golden’s work. I did write a book review of her book, and it’s published in the economic records. Yeah, I’d be very pleased for people to have a read of that and see what, see what they think of the points that Claudia golden has expressed. And of course, yes, she did. She was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in recognition of decades and decades of work looking at women’s participation in in the workforce, and how that has changed over time from an historical perspective right up to contemporary time. So she is a big advocate and champion for working towards a more gender equitable economy.

Gene Tunny  28:35

Okay, so that really gives you something to think about, doesn’t it? Least, that’s what I thought. I thought that Leonora is explanation of the concept of greedy jobs and how you interpret that in a policy sense. So Leonora summary of what Claudia Golden’s position is. I thought that was, I thought that was very good. So I will put a link in the show notes to that episode. I’ll put a link to that, that book review of Golden’s book that Leonora wrote, and it was in the economic record. Hopefully it’s not pay wall, but it may well be which you would be disappointing. But anyway, I’ll look into that, right? Oh, we should move on the next two clips for this highlights episode, they relate to the theme of the environmental impact of economic activity, so we’re looking at environmental issues. And you know that if you’re a regular listener, you you’ll know that I speak with a wide variety of guests on the show, with a wide variety of opinions. I mean, often in stark COVID. Contrast in opposition, and this is certainly the case on environmental issues, or at least the issue of how much we should be concerned, how much we should sacrifice the economy, economic growth for protecting the environment. Of course, I think we all want to have a clean environment, and we want to protect the environment as much as we can. At the same time, we want to make sure we have a thriving, prosperous economy that keeps people employed, that provides high living standards. So there certainly is some trade off. So I’ve had, I had two really good conversations about this trade off, as I see it, this this year, at least two really good conversations. One of them was with Marion tupy, who’s a, he’s a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. So that’s a a leading economic think tank in the US. It’s, it’s on the well, you’d say it’s a libertarian or classically liberal. And Marion co wrote a very interesting book that came out last year called super abundance, and he has a very optimistic view regarding our impact on the planet. So I’m going to play a clip from my discussion with Marion earlier this year. Okay, so let’s listen to that. I’m very sympathetic to the argument about about super abundance. Can I ask? Is this a continuation of the work that Julian Simon has done is this because I see on your CV or your buyer, you’re part of something called the Simon project. Could you tell us what that is and whether this is continuing his work? Yes,

Marian Tupy  32:15

yes. Yes, absolutely. So Julian was a, obviously, a huge inspiration, but so he was actually a senior fellow at Cato before I joined the Cato Institute. He died in 1998 but he was senior fellow there, so we never met. But what I wanted to do back in 2017 is to look at his work and update it, you know, to the present and I found that his bet with with Ehrlich, he would still win. In other words, commodities continued to get cheaper, at least the ones that Julian looked at. But I was using the old methodology. I was just looking at real prices of commodities. And my co author, Gail Pooley, got in touch with me, and he says, well, let’s turn them into time prices. Let’s look, let’s look at the price of commodities relative to wages, how much more you can buy for an hour of work than your ancestors could. And then we published a paper in 2018 with this new methodology. And indeed, we found, once again, that Julian was right. And then we decided to turn into a book which goes back to 1850 and basically what we find is that commodities, relative to wages, are constantly getting cheaper. If it’s a long enough period, everything is getting cheaper, including gold. The only thing that continues to become more and more expensive over the centuries is human labor, essentially the human input, and we might as well talk about Simon and early quag, yes,

Gene Tunny  33:46

yes, yes, yeah, please.

Marian Tupy  33:48

So Julian Simon, since we mentioned him, he was an economist at the University of Maryland, here in the United States, and he was basically looking at the data, and he was noticing that things were getting cheaper, even though population was expanding whilst over in California, at Stanford University, Paul Ehrlich, who is still alive, he’s 93 years old now, was predicting doom and gloom. He was basically saying, you know, as population increases, we are going to run out of everything, and there’s going to be mass famine. And, you know, starvation of hundreds of millions of people. And so they had a bet between 1980 and 1990 on the price of five commodities, nickel, tungsten, tin, chromium and copper. And basically they made a futures contract for $1,000 and when the period came to an end in 1990 Ehrlich had to send a check for $576 to Simon, because commodities became 36% cheaper. Had Simon implemented our methodology, he would have won even bigger. He would have won by about 40, 42% rather than 36

Gene Tunny  34:55

very good. Okay, so. I must say, always do enjoy hearing or reading about that Simon Ehrlich wager, because it’s a reminder that we should generally be skeptical about predictions of doomsday. I mean, you know, certainly it could occur. I’m not going to be naive, but generally, I think, you know, we’ve got, you know, multiple predictions of of Doomsday, and maybe we should just think more rationally about these things than we are or than we have been. So I thought that was a very good clip. So really grateful for Marion his appearance on the show. I think Darren Brady Nelson connected me with him. So thanks to Darren. And yes, I’ll put a link in the show notes for that episode too. Also, having listened to that, I was reminded, I’ve been reminded that I did a podcast episode, or I recall I was on the principle of charity podcast, which is hosted by Emile Sherman, who is a very distinguished film producer. He produced The King’s Speech and lion. And also, I was surprised to see the other day, I was watching one of my favorite new shows, which is on Apple TV, slow horses, the show about MI, five agents in in London with Gary Oldman, love that show, and Emile is one of the executive producers I was on his podcast. So Emil hosts that and also Lloyd vogelman. They have a really interesting show. They like to have guests with opposing point of views, points of view, and the idea of the principle of charities you’re supposed to, you know, steel man, the opponent’s argument, or under try to understand where they’re coming from. So have a good, you know, think that have the go into the conversation, assuming they’re acting in good faith and give them the respect that they deserve. And so look, I think it’s a, it’s a novel concept for a podcast, given how most podcasts are, so I think it’s, it’s interesting. I’ll put a link in the show notes so that that that was a conversation on degrowth. And, yeah, that was something that, yeah, that yeah, that was an interesting experience that I had earlier in the year. So I’ll put a link in the show notes to that, right? Oh, now for someone with a different take on how we’re we’re going environmentally and going to Well, the the other guest I’m going to feature in this highlights episode is Daniel vert Daniel lossy from Vertis group. And Daniel is based in Omaha, Nebraska, and that becomes highly relevant, as you will notice in this in this clip that I play, and I really enjoyed talking to Daniel, his company does a lot of very interesting work. So they work with organizations such as Seattle Aquarium, and they’re helping to make those organizations more sustainable, helping them meet their or get on the path to meet their net zero goals? So he’s someone who’s a practitioner, and I thought he had a lot of really valuable insights. Okay, so now I will play a clip from Episode 242 helping Seattle Aquarium and others go to net zero and beyond. So that’s from May this year. I hope you enjoy this clip. Before we go, I’ve got to ask given you’re in Omaha, and this is a economic show. Do you ever see Mr. Buffett around town? Have

Daniel Lawse  39:25

I seen him? Personally, I don’t think I have, but I’ve been in one of his favorite restaurants before, where he eats pretty regularly. And you know, we host the Berkshire Hathaway every single year. So see all of the the tourists who come in for that, the shareholders who come in, and my wife owns a little tea shop, so that always gets a little bit more business during those Berkshire days. But I’ve not bumped into Warren myself. Personally, that’s

Gene Tunny  39:53

okay. I just Just thought I’d ask given when, when people hear Omaha, they’ll think that, you know, that’s often the. First thing, rightly or wrongly, people, people, people think of in their minds, particularly if they’re in economics or finance. So just sort of ask,

Daniel Lawse  40:08

well, on some levels, I think Warren’s actually a pretty sustainably minded person. We can argue lots of other things, but here’s the example. I drive past his house on a regular basis, right? He does not live in a gated community mansion. He’s lived in the same house, I think, for over 50 years, and he’s done some upgrades to it and at a few additions, but it is a very what I would call a modest house in a nice neighborhood of Omaha, but like probably hundreds of 1000s of people drive past this house and would never know it’s even his.

Gene Tunny  40:42

Wow. So the fact that

Daniel Lawse  40:44

he doesn’t go and just consume and build a big house because he has the money and he could, and I don’t, I don’t believe he owns that many homes, or second homes or third homes. He owns a couple different locations. But there are some people who have a lot of wealth, who own a lot of homes that they travel and vacation to. So in that regard, he’s making a sustainable choice by living in a in a modest house that he’s had for decades, and maintaining it and regenerating it. Perhaps we might, if we want to throw that in there, instead of tearing it down and creating something new and bigger.

Gene Tunny  41:18

Oh, it’s, that’s a good story. I mean, he’s embodying the, you know, the virtues, or the the the high point, or what’s the right word to describe it. He’s in, he’s embodied. He’s embodying those, the real great values of capitalism, or where it’s about saving and investing. So, so that’s terrific. Good last. Yeah, make it last. Good on Warren Buffett, very good. Okay. Daniel Lawson, this has been a great conversation. Any final points before we close?

Daniel Lawse  41:49

I love your questions. Gene, I think it’s so important to be aware of how we think, because it really does matter. And there are four critical shifts that I see at play, and all the sustainability work that we do, and I’ve talked about, probably all of them, but shifting our mindset from a closed system to an open system, right? We’re not alone in this world, and so let’s acknowledge the impact that other organizations and communities and businesses have on us, the shift from like this mechanistic worldview to a living and dynamic world, view like Change is the only constant thing in life, and when we recognize that I’m a living being, and organizations are made up of humans, so we’re more living. We’re more like a garden that needs nurturing and tending than a business as a machine that you just take a part out and replace it, right? Let’s, let’s humanize our organizations instead of dehumanize them. The third is the shift from really feeling like and thinking like we’re separate from everybody else, and shifting more to this interconnected way of being, recognizing that my actions have impacts on you, whether intentionally or not. When we do an organizational policy, it can shift things in good ways, unknown ways and unknown ways. And then the last one is the short term thinking, the long term thinking. I’ll end with this. The seventh generation principle comes from the Iroquois nation, the first peoples of the US or of North America. I apologize, and they said the decisions that we make for our community, we need to think about, what is the impact going to be on seven generations, which, you know, it’s about 150 years. You can’t even predict that far out, but it forced them to think about, what’s the long term impact of the decisions they made at Council. And I, I challenge your listeners to imagine a world where their elected presidents, council members, representatives, didn’t think about the next election cycle and being re elected, but thought in seven generations, what would be different? Yeah, and what would be different if our business leaders weren’t thinking about quarterly profits, short term feedback loops, and instead thought forward seven generations, what? How different would our businesses look, and how different would our communities be if we had leaders who were thinking in seven generations, changes everything in, I think, pretty good ways.

Gene Tunny  44:10

Okay, so that was Daniel lossy, who is the Chief century thinker at Virtus group in Omaha, Nebraska. So they do environmental consulting work all over the US. So yep, I’ll put a link in the show notes to that episode. I think it’s definitely worth a listen. And I think Daniel has some Yeah, really interesting. And yeah, really interesting, interesting perspectives that make me think and Yeah, certainly saying things that that are challenging to economists. Okay, final clip, this episode and this. This clip is from the episode that a. According to Spotify wrapped. So Spotify wrapped is the summary that Spotify puts out every year, and it’s actually what inspired me, in a way, to do this episode. According to Spotify rap, the most listened to episode of my show in 2024 at least on Spotify, was episode 236 the housing crisis in and immigration Australia’s tough choices with John August. So it, it may well have been the most listened to episode because John’s very good at sharing and, you know, material, and he’s got a good network. John has a radio we had a radio show in Sydney on radio Skid Row in Marrickville, and he’s heavily involved in the Pirate Party. And I’ve had John on the show several times, and if you’re a regular listener, you’ll probably appreciate that he always has very interesting and well thought out things to say. So he no longer has a radio show. He’s had to step back from that and but, but he’s will still be able to hear from him. Next year, he’s going to be putting out a podcast, and I look forward to catching up with him, either on this show or on his new podcast. So once I find out more about that, I’ll, I’ll pass on the details. Right? Oh, the clip I’m going to play is, again, it’s from this episode that on housing and immigration. And these are really big issues in Australia at the moment. I mean, we had that huge surge in immigration post COVID And there’s a lot of debate about, to what extent is immigration driving the housing crisis that we’ve had? To what extent is immigration behind the the economic challenges we face? And there’s a lot of talk about the per capita recession, the decline in household living standards. So yep, if you’re in Australia, you’ll you’ll be well aware of this debate. And I suppose it’s a debate that is occurring in in many, in many economies around the world. And certainly immigration was was one of the issues that that swung the election in Trump’s favor. That was the view that Darren expressed on my show, and I’ve heard others express that too. Okay, so let’s play the final clip, and this is from my conversation with John August on housing and immigration.

John August  48:06

Well, keep in mind, I think I’ve already said this, that I do not believe that, you know, just reducing immigration is going to be a magic one. We have to, in some sense, aggressively pay catch up on our infrastructure. And another thing I’ll point out is, I don’t know what it’s like in Brisbane, but certainly in Sydney, you’ve got the issue where you’ve got the rich suburbs, and the people who are like the nurses, the fire is the police officers, the people doing cleaning, the people doing whatever. Can’t afford to live there, so they’ve got to basically travel all the way across Sydney, and they’re putting a needless load on the road network that doesn’t really need to be there. And for the rest of us that are not in that situation, we’re obviously coping with congested roads. So you know, for me, that’s a side effect of that sort of asymmetric wealth distribution. And one of the things that may be happening in Brisbane, I know some councils in Sydney are looking at getting into public housing, not in a grand sweeping way, but key worker accommodation. This is, this is accommodation that will be there for the police officers and their families, for the nurses and their families, for the fireies and their families, and perhaps for the cleaners and their families that are actually servicing that area. And, you know, you’ll basically have to say, look, either I have a job or I will be getting a job in the area, and I’m in one of these professions, so the council will then give you some subsidized place to live. And, you know, that’s interesting, that councils are even contemplating doing that. I mean, I mean, I guess this is a, this is sort of a guess. It’s a bit of an issue around infrastructure and housing. I guess a few steps from New from your original question. But never mind. Can’t help myself.

Gene Tunny  49:49

I can understand the logic of it. So I’ve seen that in in rural towns in particular. So you’ve got a visited a potato process. Facility in one of the Riverina towns, and they actually own some houses in the local town, so that they’ve got places for the I think, you know, the migrant workers who come in to work at their processing facility, so they’ve got somewhere to live when they’re when they’re in the area. So I can see the logic of that and why it might make sense for some councils to look at that awesome. Well,

John August  50:24

I know that, you know, just traveling around country towns, it’s interesting when there’s some sort of development, and all the tradies have taken all the motels or or there’s some sort of running festival or something like that. You by golly, you know, you notice it when you, when you go to a country town thinking, Oh, this is just a quiet, sleepy country town. There’ll be lots of vacancies at the motel and, well, there aren’t anyway.

Gene Tunny  50:49

That’s very true. Okay, I want to go back to those numbers. So migration program. So there are in the permanent migration program. So remember I talked about how our net migration has been running at about 550,000 Okay, the permanent Migration Program, which is what you’re talking about, which is refugees, or the family reunions and skilled migration, that’s set at 190,000 places. So that’s just a fraction of the total net overseas migration, and a big part of it are students over foreign students come in universities. And also the, you know, students who stay on, they get an extension, so they do a degree, and then they stay here for a couple of years after that. And you know, some of them will have work rights, and they’ll be, they’ll be in our labor force. So I’ll end you know, a lot of it is that, and so we’ve got this big temporary migration number. So I’ll put a link to Leith post in the show notes, because I think it’s a nice summary of all of the relevant data. We’ve got around 700,000 student visa holders in Australia, but in terms of temporary visa holders. So that could be students, their families, people who are who did a degree, and then they’re still staying here. That’s at, is it 2.2 to 2.4 million people? So depending on whether you use the so there’s a quarterly, seasonally adjusted number, that’s about 2.3 million. It looks like. And I’ll put that in the show notes. So is

John August  52:23

that that at the moment, or per quarter, or per year, or what do we what are we saying here? Yeah,

Gene Tunny  52:28

that’d be at the moment. So that’d be the stock of them, yeah, at a point in time, yeah, yeah. And so we’re well above where we were at COVID, and you could argue that we’ve actually, you know, so some of the people will say, Oh, actually, it’s just catch up and we’re just on the same trajectory. Okay, maybe so. And this is something that Leith addresses here, and his his point is that, well, okay, this, this argument. The he refers to a tweet from a bull. Is it a bull Rizvi, who was a former immigration bureaucrat, where he was saying, Oh, look, we’re just we’re actually where we would have been if we were on the same trajectory pre pandemic. And then so Leith goes risby arguments ridiculous, because the pandemic completely constipated the supply side of the housing market by sending material costs through the roof, sending builders bus so you were talking about this before John and reducing building capacity by months of lockdowns, deliberately engineering a record immigration rebound into a supply restricted market was the height of idiocy, and is why we are suffering from the worst rental crisis in living members.

John August  53:37

Well articulated position, I suppose I’d have to think about it much more carefully to say, look, is it right or is it wrong? But it sounds very reasonable on the face of it. You know, prima faci is the legal people would say. But my broad position would be, look, we were playing catch up on infrastructure before, if we’re actually going to get some breathing space, we’ve got to have a commitment to catch up on infrastructure at the same time as we limit immigration, so we can actually get ahead of the curve. Because I think a lot of this, this silly bugger games of like, here’s a development will divert some of the benefits from that to building infrastructure that’s not getting ahead of the curve. And like, look just a bit of an anecdote from like, history of Sydney is way back when our first rail lines went out of Sydney to service the farmers, okay? And that was why they were built. So if you wanted to build a settlement, you know, 10 or 20k is out of out of the city center, or what would have then been the city center, you just build a railway station on some part of the railway track, and boom, boom, there’s the start of your community, your infrastructure has led your community, rather than the infrastructure coming sometime later, based on some deferred payment schedule, you know? So you know where, where? Yeah. I mean, Lisa van Olson may well have a good point. I’m not going to disagree with it, but my position is we were paying catch up. Four, and if we’re going to be serious about playing doing actual, proper catch up, then we can’t just do business as usual like it was however many years ago. So, but, but, yeah, he may well have a good point there.

Gene Tunny  55:13

Okay, so that was John August from my episode on housing and immigration. So yep, if you liked what John or I had to say in that clip, then Yep, and you haven’t listened to that episode, then please check it out. Okay, so as you’ll as you’ll gather. I mean, we cover some fairly controversial issues on this show, and I appreciate that you know these are issues that people may well have different views from me on, and I’m happy to hear other opinions. Happy to hear your perspectives on these issues. So yep, if you’ve got any any thoughts positive or negative, or get in touch. Let me know whether you agree, whether you disagree. What do you think about these important issues that we’ve covered today, so issues or about the environment, about housing, immigration, the gender pay gap and the US budget and what the return of President Trump means for the US and for the rest of the world. Please feel free to get in touch. You can email me at contact, at economics, explored. I’d definitely love to hear from you. I want to know what you’re interested in. I want to know how I can improve the show so I can continue this go. I can continue the show. I can make it even better and make it make it a really strong show. In 2025 so we’re, we’re getting very close to the new year, right? Oh, again. Thanks for listening. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope to catch up with you in a future episode. Thanks you.

Credits

Thanks to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

How to improve housing affordability and why the Greedflation thesis is wrong w/ Simon Cowan, CIS – EP203

Host Gene Tunny and Simon Cowan from the Centre for Independent Studies discuss housing affordability and greedflation in the CIS’s Sydney HQ. They delve into recent articles written by Simon on these topics and explore the factors contributing to unaffordable housing (e.g. zoning and other supply restrictions) and why the greedflation thesis is wrong. 

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcasts and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: Simon Cowan

Simon Cowan is Research Director at the CIS. He is a leading commentator on policy and politics, with a regular column in the Canberra Times newspaper, frequent interviews on Sky and the ABC, and multiple appearances before parliamentary committees discussing the budget, citizenship, taxation and health policy. He has written extensively on government spending and fiscal policy, with a specific focus on welfare and superannuation policy. He earlier work focused on government industry policy, defence and regulation.

His latest work includes Attitudes to a post-Covid Australia and Millennials and Super: the case for voluntary superannuation. Some of his other works include a co-authored report on pensions, a deep dive into the Universal Basic Income, and a 2012 piece arguing that Australia should acquire nuclear submarines from the Americans.

What’s covered in EP203

  • The problem with housing affordability. (4:56)
  • High property prices and housing affordability. (10:02)
  • Should we cap migration to improve housing affordability? (14:24)
  • The role of public/social housing. (19:12)
  • Shared equity schemes. (24:15)
  • Home ownership as a key milestone on the way to retirement. (29:09)
  • Local government regulations and housing affordability. (35:06)
  • The Greedflation hypothesis and why it’s wrong. (39:04)

Links relevant to the conversation

Simon’s Canberra Times articles on housing affordability and greedflation:

The Coalition can create generational voting change by tackling housing affordability – The Centre for Independent Studies 

‘Greedflation’ myth hides real causes of inflation – The Centre for Independent Studies 

Images from the Bill Leak room including a poem from Sir Les Patterson (i.e. Barry Humphries):

Sir Les with Bill Leak.jpg 

Sir Les’s poem about Bill Leak part 1.jpg 

Sir Les’s poem about Bill Leak part 2.jpg 

Past Economics Explored episode discussing wage-price spiral mentioned by Gene:

https://economicsexplored.com/2022/06/14/stagflation-be-alert-not-alarmed-ep143-transcript/

Transcript of Q&A session following Phil Lowe’s speech in Brisbane in July 2023 during which Gene asked the RBA Governor about Greedflation:

https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2023/sp-gov-2023-07-12-q-and-a-transcript.html

Transcript: How to improve housing affordability and why the Greedflation thesis is wrong w/ Simon Cowan, CIS – EP203

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. This was then looked at by a human, Tim Hughes from Adept Economics, to pick up the bits otters might have misheard. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:06

Welcome to the Economics Explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory, evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show.

Thanks for tuning into the show. Today, I have the pleasure of catching up with my colleague at the Centre for Independent Studies, Simon Cowan. We’re in the CIS offices on Macquarie Street in Sydney. And we’re going to be chatting about some recent work that Simon’s done on housing affordability and greedflation, Simon, so good to catch up with you.

Simon Cowan  01:06

Yeah. Welcome to the Bill Leak Room here at the CIS, our little office here in Macquarie Street. It’s fantastic to have you here in our facilities with our totally real plants and our wall of photos.

Gene Tunny  01:19

Yeah, well, it’s great this room. So Bill Leak was a famous Australian cartoonist, and there’s a there’s actually a poem about Bill Leak from Les Patterson, one of Barry Humphries characters. Yeah, just it’s terrific. So I might put a link in the show notes. I’ll make sure I take a photo of that before I go. But yes, Simon, you’ve written some great pieces recently, they were both published in Canberra Times on housing affordability and greedflation both topical issues and I thought I’d be good if we could chat about those.

Simon Cowan 01:40

Yeah, for sure.

Gene Tunny 01:43

Your piece on housing affordability was in the Canberra Times on third of July 2023. “The Coalition can create generational voting change by tackling housing affordability.” I’d like to start off by asking you about the context of that piece because CIS Centre for Independent Studies, it’s a non-partisan Think Tank. The way it’s pitched, it’s pitched as how the Coalition can create generational voting change. Now I know this is this relates to some recent research. Could you tell us a bit about the context of that piece, please?

Simon Cowan  02:29

Yeah, sure. So one of my other colleagues, a man by the name of Matt Taylor who’s actually working out of our Canberra facilities, we’re stretching our tentacles across the country with Brisbane and Canberra and Sydney. He did some work that looked at the prevalence of centre right voting patterns amongst younger people, in particular, millennials and Gen Z. And right. And now in Australian politics, the Coalition vote is a proxy for for the centre right. And, you know, to the extent that the Coalition embodies what you might describe as classical Liberal values and policies, then they’re, you know a proxy of some sorts for classical Liberal voting patterns amongst younger people. And the concern that we had as an organisation and I think it’s been heightened by Matt’s research, is that it’s not just that we’re seeing, you know, that traditional voting pattern of younger voters voting left and older voters voting, right, but that each generation that comes into the electorate is more likely to vote for left wing parties, so not just Labour, but increasingly, the Greens. And for Gen Z, in particular, what we’re seeing is, they’re actually moving further left, compared to the average voter as they get older, which is an unusual pattern, both in Australia and globally. So millennials are moving to the right, they’re doing so at a much slower rate than previous generations. They’re starting from further left, Gen Z started from way further left than the millennials and are becoming more left wing. So the end result of this is that we’re seeing a roughly 65% of that younger cohort is voting for left wing parties, roughly equally Labour and the Greens and that the centre right is attracting for Gen Z in particular, as little as sort of 10% of the vote. Now, our issue isn’t so much for the Coalition’s political fortunes, I’m sure that that’s a concern for them. But for us, it’s to the extent that the Coalition is more likely to implement classical Liberal reforms than the Labour Party, which I think is a reasonable deduction. To the extent that’s true. The fact that young people have no interest in centre right politics and therefore classical Liberal ideas is a real concern of ours.

Gene Tunny  04:56

Okay. So is part of the reason that Gen Z has these left wing views to the extent they do, is that related in part to this issue of housing affordability, the fact that younger people aren’t able to purchase their own homes, to the same extent that previous generations, particularly baby boomers, and to a lesser extent, Gen. Gen X, were able to, is that part of the story?

Simon Cowan  05:24

I think that’s a very big part of the story and Matt’s now working on some more research that will look into that issue more, more specifically around what the actual triggers of that, that are. But I think there’s definitely a problem with millennials and Gen Z, in particular, around housing affordability. The issue isn’t just, and this is, it’s a very important issue. It’s not just that they can’t afford to buy a home, it’s that the prospects of them ever being able to afford to buy a home, and ever being able to move out of that cycle that that sort of rental cycles seems very remote to them. So, you know, they’re not just moving into the market later than their parents, for example, there’s a real fear amongst Gen Z in particular, that they won’t ever get into that point, that they’ll be basically trapped as renters for the rest of their lives. And a number of people have sort of made this observation in the past. If you’ve got nothing to conserve, there’s no reason to vote conservative.

Gene Tunny  06:19

Yeah. And what do you think of that concern Simon, do you think that’s a legitimate concern on their part?

Simon Cowan  06:23

I think in part, it certainly is. There are some people who will be rentals forever, probably more so than was true in previous generations. I mean, if you look at the sort of Baby Boomer and then the previous generation to them as well, almost 95% of that generation ended up buying home at some point during their their lifecycle, once you get into retirement, you see that almost everyone, there’s sort of a core of 10 to 15% of people who who don’t own a home, in retirement, most of the current cycle of retirees own their home, the vast majority of them own it without a mortgage. So far the trend is increasingly people coming into retirement with mortgages, rather than having paid off that during their working life, I think we’ll also see, though, a generation of people, a larger percentage of them will be renting for far longer. And the issue there is, at least in part around the enormous difficulty of saving enough money to get into that first rung of the housing market. And also, you know, those affordable entry level houses are now, so much further away from the CBD of the city, that if you’re someone who works in, you know, if you’re working in the city, it’s very difficult for you to have a young family and commute from two and a half hours away each day. And that option, like if you’re gonna buy a home, you have to, you know, you’re now looking at that two hour commute each way, that becomes a very difficult prospect for a lot of people.

Gene Tunny  07:53

So you’re talking about in Sydney, there’ll be people who are doing that in Sydney.

Simon Cowan  07:57

Yeah, absolutely, so if you go back a couple generations a long commute was was sort of from what is now the sort of almost not necessarily the inner ring of suburbs, but there was a sort of middle density ring of suburbs around, you know, the Canterburys, the Bankstowns, etc, that were all, you know, still 30 or 40 minutes commute from the city, but the prices in those suburbs are now well beyond the entry level, you’ve got to go another 20 kilometres from the CBD before you start to get to places where people can afford to buy houses in that entry level of, you know, even as far as sort of Blacktown and places like that you’re seeing median house price is well over a million dollars. So that becomes very difficult and you end up with a situation like we’ve seen in London, for example and other places, too, as far as I’m aware, people who do essential jobs that are not particularly well paid, you know, your teachers and your nurses in inner city areas can’t afford to live within commuting distance of the places where they work. And that then becomes a real problem for society. If you can’t get teachers for your school, because they can’t live within two hours of your school, you’ve got no teachers.

Gene Tunny  09:10

Yeah, this is the key worker problem isn’t it that they talk about, you know, the key workers can’t find affordable places to live…

Simon Cowan  09:18

There’s always a slight risk that some of this is overstated, right? It’s not it’s not an absolute catastrophe. But things have changed enough that it’s having a significant impact on voting patterns and that’s probably where we’re at now. If things continue to get worse, if the trends that we’re seeing of you know, systemic underdevelopment, particularly in the parts of Sydney where people want to live. If those trends continue, then things will definitely get far worse. Right now we’ve got a problem, not a catastrophe. But there’s a real problem and it’s not yet clear to me that particularly the centre right, there’s been a sufficient level of engagement with this problem, that they’re willing to look at solutions that might actually work.

Gene Tunny  10:02

Okay, okay. Australia does have high property prices relative to median income, we must be one of the highest in the world are we are, you know, particularly for Sydney and Melbourne that I’ve seen some of those ratios, I might dig them up and put them in the show notes. But yeah…

Simon Cowan  10:19

Yeah we’re top, so regularly, so Sydney, Melbourne in particular have been regularly in the top 10 least affordable cities in the world, at various points other Australian cities have snuck in there. So I think at one point, Perth managed to make its way in at the height of the mining boom that it was, you know, one of the most unaffordable cities, so New Zealand has a similar problem, as well, around that, that issue of affordability comparable to us. And then I mean, you’ve got a lot of American cities, and then your Tokyos and Londons as well.

Gene Tunny  10:49

Yeah. But what’s extraordinary is like, based on what you were just saying then, it’s not just, you know, there are some exclusive suburbs in Sydney here say out at Double Bay or out in the Eastern suburbs, and you’ve got places worth 10s of millions of dollars, but this is, you’re paying a lot of money just for property in, in what was traditionally a working class area. I mean, over a million dollars, whatever your…

Simon Cowan  11:12

Yeah, absolutely and places like you know, the Northern Beaches, suburbs, which are a fair way from Sydney. And, and we’re never I mean, they’re not they weren’t poor areas, by any means, right. But they weren’t, they weren’t the areas that the elite and rich of Sydney lived in. But now, many of the homes in that area are way outside the price range for a young family, particularly if you’re in a situation where one of your partners isn’t able to work full time. Or if someone’s in a job where you know, they’re not in a professional capacity and being paid six figure salary, it’s really hard for them. And the thing that becomes even harder, it’s largely about getting over that that initial hurdle of having to save, you know, you need 20% deposit for a million dollar home, you got to save $200,000 of after tax income. When you know we’ve got cost of living spiralling out of control at the moment, we’ve got, you know, 11% of your income’s being diverted into retirement savings. And you’ve got to somehow find $200,000 plus of post tax income. It’s yeah, I mean, it’s a real challenge.

Gene Tunny  12:13

Yeah, yeah. And what do you think’s caused this housing affordability problem we have in Australia Simon?

Simon Cowan  12:19

So the evidence on this is actually really clear, despite the fact that a lot of people really didn’t want to accept that this was true. It is abundantly clear from the work that my colleague Peter Tulip, and others have done that the issue is overwhelmingly restrictions on supply. So people want to say that it’s about demand, it’s about immigrants, it’s about negative gearing, capital gains, they have very minor impacts on price what’s having by far the biggest impact on price is the restrictions on bringing new properties to market, on redeveloping existing properties, it’s zoning and taxes and government restrictions that are aimed to stop people developing, and in Sydney, in particular, and a number of suburbs around the city. But also on the major arterial train lines, you’ve got councils that are simply refusing to allow development. And my colleague has highlighted some of them have massively undershot housing targets. But we see time and time again, things like heritage restrictions and zoning restrictions. And, and you know, even you can’t build high density housing around train lines. If you can’t build high density train on train lines, where are you going to build it? And the answer is, well, for them, at least build it way out in Western Sydney, don’t put it anywhere near where I live. And that attitude is pervasive in the eastern suburbs, in inner West and where I’m currently based in the North Shore, some of the councils out there are actively and very hostile to development of any kind.

Gene Tunny  13:52

Right. Okay. On immigration, do you think that what doesn’t have a major impact on housing affordability? Because that’s one of the things that people are concerned about, because we’ve had a record level of net overseas migration in Australia of 400,000. And there are concerns that, like, it’s just, we should be slowing that down while we let the housing stock catch up, on infrastructure catch up. Do you have any thoughts on that level of immigration we have at the moment?

Simon Cowan  14:24

Yes so my take on this, and I’ll be the first to admit there is, there are differing views on classical liberal amounts of immigration, but for me, personally, I would have almost uncapped skilled migration, I would be happy to take as many skilled migrants as we can get, because I think the economic benefits of skilled migration outweigh the costs. Now, the flip side of that is that we have to provide sufficient infrastructure and build sufficient houses to have those people, give those people somewhere to live. But I think you go, you’ve got it completely backwards if your approach is we’re going to stop migration because we can’t build fast enough when we could build faster, the roadblock, the handbrake on house prices is coming from that refusal to allow development, trying to take some of the pressure off so that councils don’t have to fix their obvious contribution to this seems like just the wrong way to go about it to me, I’d rather have more great migrants and way more housing, and I think you can do it that way. And the economic benefits of doing that way outweigh the costs of it. One of my other colleagues a few years ago, did some work around the sort of, what are the outcomes for skilled migrants in Australia? On average skilled migrants are they earn a slightly higher income, they pay higher taxes, they’re more likely to own a home, they’re more likely to be married, they’re more likely to have kids than the average person. So there’s a there’s a benefit to society beyond just the economic benefit of having more skilled migrants. There’s an issue around housing supply, I would fix the issue around housing supply rather than trying to create alternatives to remove some of that pressure.

Gene Tunny  16:02

Yeah, gotcha. Okay. In your article in the Canberra Times, you wrote that Labour’s signature housing affordability policies have huge problems. So Labour being the federal Labour government led by Anthony Albanese, the Prime Minister, first locking future generations into renting their homes from union-controlled super funds. What’s going on there, Simon? What’s, how to, how would the labour government’s policies lead to that outcome? And what’s the, what’s your concern there?

Simon Cowan  16:40

Yeah, so for long time, Labour was convinced that the issue was, was greedy landlords and negative gearing and capital gains. And Gene, you did some fantastic work for us on that issue, in fact, I think you did a an analysis, not necessarily for CIS, but previously that looked at the impact that those capital gains and negative gearing policies had on housing affordability and found it was what like 4%, almost nothing. Yeah. So for a long time, Labour believed that that was the issue, and then started to come around to thinking about this as a supply side problem. But the solutions that they have, they have two main supply side initiatives. And there’s been some more movement more recently. So this is at least as positive, but their main initiatives were: one they were going to encourage institutional superannuation investors to build residential properties for rent. So that meant in practice, I think it meant that they would incentivize the large super funds, which are overwhelmingly controlled, they’re overwhelmingly industry super funds, which have a 50% union 50% Business control. But overwhelmingly, those funds would be then encouraged, incentivized, to invest in and build rental properties for lease. And the other policy was around building a whole bunch more public and social housing. So rather than allowing, having, they’ve identified the right market block, but instead of removing that block and allowing the market to function, their solution is how do we use government incentives and government money to build additional supply? It just seems extraordinary to me that you would create a situation where individuals couldn’t use their own superannuation money to build their own home, but their super fund could use their super money to build a home for them to rent. And that just I mean, one of the reasons why this policy, I think, has been dis-emphasised by Labour is that there’s almost no one who actually wants that outcome. Super funds don’t want to do it, because they’re seeing the the noises around rent controls and increasing tenant rights and think this is a bad investment for my Super fund. And people are like, well why would I want to rent from my super fund with my money? Why can’t I just use my money to buy my own home? So I think that that policy has just got so many flaws to it, that even Labour’s now started to sort of move away from that.

Gene Tunny  19:07

Ok so they’ve moved away from that, but they’ve, they’re investing more in social housing and it sounds like well, reading your article, you’ve got concerns about social housing as the solution, would you be able to go into that please?

Simon Cowan  19:21

Yeah, you’re gonna get me started on talking about social housing. So look, there is a role for public and social housing, but it’s not the role that the government keeps pushing for it, right. So social housing is very important for people who are temporarily homeless, particularly people say who are fleeing domestic violence, they need emergency accommodation in the short term, and they don’t necessarily have access to funds that would allow them to rent a property go through, you know, the hoops that you need to go through to get a rental property. So you’ve got, you know, people who are in, fleeing violence you’ve got people say, who have, you know, sort of sickness or mental illness issues that need accommodation, you’ve got disability support accommodation, those, those are completely appropriate uses of social and public housing. Now, the difference between social and public housing, public housing is government funded social housing is funded by not for profits. What the government is talking about, though, is providing long term government funded accommodation to people. Basically, along the sort of a line you’re seeing in Britain, where you have a council house for decades, and that’s your home and you don’t own it, you are given it by the government. The problem with that is that it’s a terribly inefficient way of providing support for people who need rental accommodation and are on low income. So when you compare, providing a government house to providing, say, rent assistance through Social Security, it’s way more efficient to provide social security. And it’s way more equitable. Because what you have with government housing, as we have here, there’s a 10 year waiting list. And often, people don’t move on that waiting list at all. So you have people who get they spend years on a waiting list, waiting for free housing, they’re disincentivized to take actions that would get them off that list, especially if they’ve got to the top because if they go back on the list, they go at the bottom, you have people who are living in these public houses who are disincentivized, from getting out of public housing, because if they again, if they you know, they take a job that makes them eligible for public housing, and they lose that job in six months, they go to the bottom of the 10 year waiting list. So and then you also have the the way that rent is structured in public housing, where it’s a percentage of income rather than a fixed amount. So the more money you earn, it’s an effective marginal tax rate of 25%, you lose 25 cents of each dollar extra dollar you earn to your public house rent, rather than the rent being a certain fixed amount a month.

Gene Tunny  21:59

I did not know that. Is that how they do it in New South Wales?

Simon Cowan 22:02

Yeah, yeah, well look I…

Gene Tunny 22:03

I’ll have to check what they do in Queensland, other states…

Simon Cowan  22:06

Social housing again I mean it’s all different, but one of our recommendations, we looked at this when they were putting up the last sort of big round of public housing. And one of the things is that, and it’s designed to make it more affordable, it’s 20% of whatever 25% of whatever your income is. So if you’re on, you know, if you’re on Newstart, then 25% of that’s very low. But the problem is when you then start working and earning money, you’ve got an another marginal tax rate from your accommodation.

Gene Tunny  22:32

Yeah. And without, I don’t want to stig, stigmatise or be critical of anyone who’s who’s living in social housing, but because, you know, obviously, there are people are doing it tough and they’re trying to do the best they can. There are a lot of social problems with social housing is that right?

Simon Cowan  22:49

Yeah especially in the, and again, this has experienced the United Kingdom in particular, that social housing estates, particularly where a lot of public housing is clustered together, you tend to find a lot of antisocial behaviour, you find a lot of other problems, there’s a higher rate of crime. And so what you have is a situation where it’s not particularly pleasant for, for people living in social housing but it’s also, you know, a big disincentive for people to live near social housing. And then you have the effect where if there is a cluster of public housing in a particular place that affects property values that people who live around that by so no one wants, public housing, especially not clusters of public housing, anywhere in their suburb. Yet again, you know, we have this disincentive for development, people want the public housing somewhere else. And then in Sydney, we had a particular issue where, and this is largely a legacy issue, we had public housing that was worth just an extraordinary amount of money by virtue of where it was, you know, in The Rocks, which it’s in the, right in the centre of Sydney with views of the harbour. There’s public housing that had been there for 100 and something years, and each of those houses was worth millions of dollars. So you know, you had this this issue of well, do we, we’re giving away this public housing to someone for basically no money, why don’t we sell their public housing and build, you know, a lot more with with the money that it came from? So you’ve got a whole bunch of problems. I mean, fundamentally, I think the issue with this is if, if the issue that you’re looking at is housing affordability, rather than the need for temporary accommodation or something else, if the issue is housing affordability, you’re always going to be better off allowing the market to develop property than trying to do it by government. And there’s, and there’s a filtering effect of adding supply at any point in the market reduces prices of at every point in the market. Because if you think about this logically, even if you put the supply right at the very top end, the people who are buying those $10 million apartments are selling their $8 million apartments and the the effect of that sort of filters down all the way through the market, so adding supply anywhere, increases supply everywhere.

Gene Tunny  25:06

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  25:41

Now back to the show.

And what about this this idea of Shared Equity? Labour or the government has a scheme a Shared Equity scheme, there’s concerns about how wide a coverage it is? I mean, it seems like small numbers relative to the total, total need out there. But what do you think of these Shared Equity schemes where the government effectively owns part of your property don’t they? Would you be able to take us through that, please?

Simon Cowan  26:09

Yeah so, there’s a I mean, so part of the problem with a lot of these schemes is that they’re designed to be so small, they can’t have an impact in the sort of aggregate level, because the number of caps are limited. And whenever you see a government policy like this, and it’s, it’s limited to a small number of people, you know, that it’s not a good deal for the taxpayers as a general rule. But so you do have that situation where the government would, in some instances, it’d be providing a portion of the deposit. So that the individual who meets a certain criteria jumps through the right hoops in order to be eligible for the scheme can can apply for a loan and basically buy a property with as little as sort of 5% equity. Shared Equity schemes don’t have a fantastic hit track record in Australia. And it’s not so much around the issue of the deposits. But one of the things that we looked at at the other end of the market was was how you could get into equity release schemes for pensioners. So you’ve got an issue with a percentage about sort of one in five people in the age pension are very, very cash poor and very, very asset rich, and most of them, the main asset they have is property. So when we looked at this 5% or so of people who were on the full rate of the aged pension had more than one and a half million dollars in home equity. But what they didn’t have was an ability to release any of that equity in order to fund their lifestyle. So my interest in in Shared Equity comes much more. And again, there’s, there’s a much bigger tradition of this in the UK, where banks and financial institutions will take over a portion of equity for your home and use that to provide an income or a lump sum to people. So it’s not that Shared Equity itself is a bad idea, where it becomes a bad idea where you’ve got government effectively taking the risk for marginal borrowers. And, you know, people who can’t actually afford to borrow the loans that they’re taking, not just they can’t afford the deposit, but they can’t actually afford the loan. And what we saw in America in the lead up to the financial crisis was exactly these sorts of schemes, schemes where the government tried to manipulate the criteria for eligibility for home loans to effectively give a certain group of people a greater chance of buying a home. And the end result of any of that sort of manipulation around loans was the potential for government to bear, the government to bear losses in relation to home equity. So, you know, it’s a small scheme, it won’t have a big impact for that reason, but it does expose the government to risk of default, which seems like a bad way of doing things.

Gene Tunny  28:52

One thing I should ask Simon is, we’re presuming that the ideal is that people end up in their own home by the time that they’ve retired, would you be able to expand on why that is such an important thing? Or why that’s such a desirable policy goal, please?

Simon Cowan  29:09

Yeah, sure. I’d bring it forward in time. I actually think that, you know, there’s some sort of key milestones in people’s lives, you get married, and then you have kids and buying a home’s one of those milestones and ideally, you know, the ideal situation, I think, is you want to be having that in the middle of those two things. So you know, you you get married and you buy a home together and you have kids and you raise kids in your own home. And that’s sort of the sort of model of of family life that was exceptionally prevalent in Australia and I think it’s, it’s one of those sort of, again, you know, talk about conservatives and for a second, but you know, when you’re, you’re married with kids in your own home, you’ve got something to conserve, you’ve got a stake in society, you’ve got, you know, roots and values there. From a retirement perspective, though, it’s, it’s even more important because Australia’s retirements system was built around a couple of specific ideas. And so one of those is voluntary savings, which is or involuntary savings, superannuation, but another, another one is the age pension, obviously government funded income. But the biggest one in Australia in particular was around the idea that you would own your own home. So the Australian retirement system is actually modelled around people owning a home in retirement without a mortgage. And that takes care of a lot of their basic needs. And what we’ve seen consistently and you know, what we see now in particular, the group of people who are struggling the most in retirement, are overwhelmingly people who don’t have voluntary savings, they don’t have any superannuation left, but they also don’t own their home. And they’re the people who are most risk of genuine poverty in retirement, it’s if you don’t own your home, and you’re dependent on the age pension, and you’re renting in old age, overwhelmingly, that’s a group of people who are right at the bottom in terms of income and living standards. And so, you know, whatever our retirement system is built around this idea that you’re going to own your own home in retirement and own it without a mortgage, then the system has to actually facilitate people being able to do that. And right now we’re starting to see that disconnect happening. More and more people are entering retirement with mortgages. Over time, you’ll see more and more people entering retirement who don’t have a home at all.

Gene Tunny  31:22

Yeah. And what’s really worrying is you’ve got all of these people who are then at risk of homelessness. And you know, people living living in cars or worst case…

Simon Cowan  31:34

Yeah, so one of the biggest, one of the biggest demographics of homelessness, and aside from, and this is sort of the broader definition of homelessness, right like because the the you think traditionally people who live on the streets, are far more likely to be sort of middle aged men, but one of the biggest groups of the biggest demographics of homelessness is actually older single women. And overwhelmingly, that’s the issue. It’s really, you know, they’re dependent on unemployment benefits or pensions, but they don’t own a home. They may have been married, their husbands died, they don’t own their home, they’ve got no income. That’s the group that’s most at risk of poverty and homelessness, was one of them at least. And it’s a big issue.

Gene Tunny  32:12

Yeah, yeah. Okay. What about tapping into your own Super? I think you were alluding to this before. What are your thoughts on that, Simon?

Simon Cowan  32:21

So one of my colleagues that sort of looks at that issue, and his view is that what you should use super for is guaranteeing a loan, rather than necessarily being able to tap into it. One of the issues with allowing people to take money from Super is that it is effectively just increasing demand. So you do have a, you do have a slight demographic shift, in terms of who is able to buy properties, if you can, you know, you can withdraw from Super to buy your own home, but you can’t withdraw from Super for an investment property, you do slightly shift who owns property at that point, just in terms of the simple should you be able to take money on your super to buy own home? Yes, because it’s your money. It’s your money, it’s your savings, you’d be better off in retirement, if you could do it, will it solve the problem that it’s trying to solve? Probably not without something else attached to it. And that really has to be around sort of that supply side reform. And, and it doesn’t have to be, I mean talk about supply side reform, it doesn’t have to be the cratering of house prices, what it needs to be is more flexibility in what people can do with their own property. And when you increase flexibility for owners, and you increase flexibility for people who want to buy, you have a more dynamic and more effective and more efficient market, and that’s better for everyone. It’s not just the case that one group has to win and one group has to lose.

Gene Tunny  33:43

Yeah. Now with, with what the federal government is proposing to do is one positive thing that they’re proposing around targets for, or they’re trying to incentivize the states to encourage development, is that, am I geting that right?

Simon Cowan  33:59

Yes, so this is one of our recommendations, it’s been picked up. And it’s it’s got a, you know, it’s a policy tradition that’s been around for a long time, which is the federal government has all the money, but not necessarily all the levers. So they incentivize states to make good policy by, you know, giving them either withholding grants from them, if they don’t do the right thing, or giving them extra money, if they do, and in this instance, they’re talking about, you know, states that meet housing targets should be able to access additional government money. And that makes sense, right? If you’re building more houses, more money for infrastructure is probably right. But if there’s a challenge, it’s that a lot of the levers and the need for incentive isn’t even necessarily at the state government level. It’s actually the local government level. And so, you know, we’ve seen a number of states, I think, both in Victoria and New South Wales that appreciate the issue around supply and housing affordability, but they’ve been unwilling to impose the requirements on local government level, where all the incentives work the other way. So, we think it’s a good policy. We think it’s something that we’ve recommended, but it won’t be as straightforward perhaps as it seems.

Gene Tunny  35:06

Yeah, you’re right about that. I mean, a lot of the problems are at that local government level. So in Queensland where I’m from, some of the places where we’ve been able to get the high density, where we’ve been able to get more people in, it’s, it’s areas that the state government zone priority development areas, so formerly light industrial areas around West End or, or Newstead so the state government’s been trying to do its best but the Brisbane City Council goes and bans town, townhouses in you know, a lot of suburbs, there’s all these character, all these character protection, and anytime someone…

Simon Cowan  35:39

Yeah, well heritage is increasingly become, basically an anti development scam, unfortunately. And you can look on Twitter and you can find fantastic examples of things that are heritage listed. Like there was a, there’s a heritage listed electrical substations and heritage listed broken fences, and it’s like, rusting machinery, heritage listed car parks, I mean, there’s not actually any historical value in a lot of this stuff. What it is, though, it’s a valuable as a foil or as a stop to development.

Gene Tunny  36:11

And it seems to be a lot of grounds for people to oppose developments, whether it’s, ah there’s, there won’t be enough car parking, there won’t, you know, it’ll affect local traffic and there’s all sorts of grounds for objection. So yeah, absolutely. agree there.

Simon Cowan  36:24

I tell you what’s interesting, just to leave this point, I think is in New Zealand, what we saw was that they basically changed the zoning rules that allowed you to have medium density as a right, so that you didn’t actually need Council permission to go up to sort of three or four storeys from, from a freestanding dwelling. And that resulted in a massive increase in, in the sort of developments that would be allowed that council used to say no to, and a reduction in relative prices in Auckland compared to Christchurch and elsewhere. I am reliably informed, however, that, that initiatives towards housing affordability in New Zealand are now trending in the other way, in the same way they are here, unfortunately. But it was a really good example of a sort of natural experiment. What happens if you change the zoning rules? So it turns out more supply, lower prices.

Gene Tunny  37:11

Okay, yeah. But I’d be mean to have a closer look at that. Because I know there are some, there’s a bit of debate about those data, but I’m just not familiar with them enough. But I want to come back to that. I’ve read about that in the past and mentioned it. I just know that the like everything there ends up being a debate on it. But I agree. I think that would be what I expected. If they did that. I would expect to see that. And if it didn’t happen, then something else must have happened to have stopped that. I guess Simon I think we’ve had a great chat about your article on housing affordability. Was there anything else in that article or any other thoughts you had on housing affordable?

Simon Cowan  37:49

I’ve got a lot of thoughts on housing affordability, but, but I have a lot of thoughts on a lot of things.

Gene Tunny  37:54

Okay, well, maybe I’ll ask you, in the last 10 minutes or so about greedflation.

Simon Cowan

Yes greedflation!

Gene Tunny

So yeah, this became, you know, this has been topical because of our friends at The Australia Institute have been very prominent promoting this view that inflation is due to greedy corporations. And I ended up asking Phil Lowe, about this, I asked our Reserve Bank governor about this at the lunch he he spoke at in Brisbane, and I asked, well, what’s your, what are your thoughts on this? And, and Phil Lowe said, well we looked at it and we don’t really think it’s a it’s really a reasonable hypothesis. And you’ve written something similar, or two, on greedflation, you’ve, you’ve said if, well, this is in an article in Canberra Times 12th of August 2023, “Greedflation myth hides real causes of inflation.” So Simon, could I ask you, what are those real causes and why do you think this greedflation hypothesis, it’s a myth?

Simon Cowan  39:00

Yeah sure, so let’s, let’s start with what greedflation is. Greedflation is the idea that the cause of our current cost of living crisis across the western world, is that corporations, collectively, and spontaneously decided to increase profit margins, and take additional money from, from consumers somehow. You know, the best explanation that I’ve seen for this, the best explanation, the only actual causality that I’ve ever seen someone try and say is, oh, there was supply side shocks as a result of the pandemic and that gave companies the ability to change the prices and so they push the prices up massively. Now, internally, I don’t think that’s actually consistent as an argument because if, support, if the cost of supply went up, then profit margins would go down, not up. But I don’t think any of this is actually about what causes inflation because what caused the bout of inflation is actually really clear. During the pandemic, particularly during 2021, across the western world, governments and central banks massively over stimulated the economy. In Australia, we saw an enormous increase in government spending in the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars, we saw a massive stimulus from the RBI in terms of basically creating money, we saw that across the western world, huge deficits, massive stimulus. Now, in 2020, you could argue that that stimulus was needed. And there was this significant shock as a result of the pandemic and significant uncertainty. By the second half of 2021, though, we had most of those variables under control, and governments kept spending and Reserve Banks kept printing money. And the result of that, as it has been, every time this has happened across history, was a massive surge in demand and as a result of that a surge in inflation. Now, the idea of greedflation, greedflation is actually measuring a real thing, there was an uptick in corporate profits, that came from, it wasn’t the cause of, it came from that stimulus, that massive increase in demand. It’s a simple supply and demand issue. There was a massive stimulus in demand, supply is limited to a certain extent, maximum capacity of the economy is certain amount once you go past that, it’s inflation, and that’s what happened. That’s what happened in Australia and Britain and America and Europe, over that period of time, massive increase in demand. And the reason why, you know it’s an increase in demand, and not an increase in costs of supply, is the corporate profits went up. And what we’ve seen in recent times is corporate profits have gone down, as inflation has come down. Why? Because across the western world, governments have been tightening budgets and reserve banks have been increasing interest rates, in other words, reducing demand.

Gene Tunny  41:58

Yeah, yeah. I think that’s, that’s, yeah that’s good. Simon. I mean, I, I largely agree. And I think when I looked at this in a previous episode, I, I talked about a study from Chris Murphy. So Chris, has done modelling of this and he came to that view that it’s because of the huge stimulus…

Simon Cowan  42:18

Yeah I think he predicted it was sort of six or 7% inflation and got pretty close to where it actually landed in Australia for that survey looked pretty good. But I mean, the bigger picture issue here, there’s two really important points coming from this greedflation thing. One of the reasons why the greedflation hypothesis is is so popular or being pushed so hard, is connected to this idea of of wages, and who should be responsible for paying for the cost of bringing inflation under control. So if you can argue truthfully, or realistically or correctly or not, that it’s not workers, and it’s not, you know, ordinary people who are responsible for inflation, therefore, you can’t restrict wages, and your government should be providing cost of living support through their budgets, what you’re trying to do is actually shift the incidence of who has to pay for the cost of getting inflation under control. But it’s such a dangerous thing to do. Because what we know is that the thing that will make inflation enduring, and the thing that will cause the biggest problems if inflation is translated into wage expectations, it creates a cycle that makes it exceptionally hard to break. And the unions and to an extent the government are trying as hard as they can to put in put forward this idea that wages should at a minimum keep pace with inflation. And ultimately, that’s a very dangerous sentiment, in my view.

Gene Tunny  43:49

This is the concern about the wage price spiral. So yeah, yeah, I’ve looked at that in a previous episode. So I might, I might link to that. Yes. So you’ve written in your article on greedflation. “The dissidents seek to de emphasise monetary policy, especially the role of monetary of managing inflation in favour of a greater role for fiscal policy and an equal focus on maintaining full employment.” So you, you see this, this greedflation view, you’re, you’re worried about it because it could lead to really bad policy outcomes in your view?

Simon Cowan  44:31

Yeah I think we’re seeing a shift already. And it’s been coming for a little while, I think, you know, we had a period of time where there was a fairly clear settlement, particularly Australia and macro economic management stability issues were almost exclusively a domain of of monetary policy, and then micro-economic efficiency issues and supply side concerns were the domain of fiscal policy. And the problem with that is that that doesn’t really allow a progressive government that wants to, to, you know, put its finger on the scales in various places to use macro economic measures as a rationale for changing government spending priorities. And so there’s this shift. You can see in America, it’s not just, just here, but away from monetary policy being mechanism for micro, macro economic stability towards fiscal policy being responsible for for huge components of economic well being. And it fits very clearly, I think into what the treasurer has been saying about the role or the return of government to more central position in in determining the direction of economic forces and so greedflation, if you take it away from that over stimulus point and bring it back towards a discussion about employment and wages. It allows you to centralise government in that decision making process again. And it was so hard for us to get past that first time.

Gene Tunny  45:58

Yeah. What are the greedflation, people arguing for greedflation, what are they actually, what would they be suggesting price controls or something? Who really…

Simon Cowan  46:07

Yeah, price controls and tax increases and ,there’s a was a retribution component in some respects. But it’s also this idea that, you know, workers weren’t responsible for this. Therefore, they shouldn’t have to bear the costs of it. And I mean, from a, from a moral perspective, that that sounds right. I mean, it’s not it’s not instinctively wrong, the problem is from an economic perspective, the argument they’re basing that on doesn’t make any sense.

Gene Tunny  46:37

Yeah. Yeah. And particularly, and this is the point Phil Lowe made in response to my question, I might, I’ll put a link in the show notes regarding that, because I had a look at some of the data he was talking about. You don’t see this big spike in the profit share of national income other than in mining, you see it in mining because they’ve had a big terms of trade boom. But you don’t really see it elsewhere in the economy. There’s a little bit but it’s not huge. So it’s hard to see how it supports his greedflation hypothesis. I think that’s a fair point. And I like your point about the lack of a causal mechanism, because, you know, people like the Australian Institute people, what they’ve done is that they’ve shown or they can demonstrate they do some decomposition of the GDP deflator. And they argue that it’s largely associated with, with profits rather than wages. Now, that’s a nice statistical calculation, but it’s just they’re showing a correlation. They’re not necessarily proving any causation, which I think’s your point. Yeah,

Simon Cowan  47:40

Yeah, cool, but far more fundamentally, right? What is inflation? Inflation is an increase in prices. If, and it can only come from from two places, right? It either comes from an increase in costs, or it comes from an increase in in profit share. Now, either it’s come from an increase in costs. That’s a supply side driven inflation. And we’ve seen some of that during the pandemic, particularly around the energy costs. But what they’ve effectively triumphantly discovered is that inflation is an increase in prices, doesn’t say anything about what causes that increase in prices. And you often see, I mean, because unions, I think, unions think this way, because this is how unions work in the sense that everyone gets together and they make a sort of centralised decision. And that then flows outwards, they assume that their opposition works the same way. There is no business or collective sort of companies that can decide what the profit level is like they can’t, there is no mechanism by which you can actually do that. So what we’re seeing is that that sort of accumulation of literally 10s of 1000s of individual decisions in individual markets by individual companies, there’s no, there’s no overarching sort of business sector that makes decisions. It’s just a reflection of what’s happening in the market. And that’s why I mean, it’s the biggest reason why this doesn’t work. Like if, if you wanted companies to reduce profits to cut inflation. How would you actually go about doing that?

Gene Tunny  49:15

Yeah, I largely agree. Now, you’re not saying that, I mean, would you recognise that there are some areas of the economy where there may be excessive concentration or or we do need to be conscious of abuses of market power. Do you have any thoughts on that? Like so…

Simon Cowan  49:31

Yeah, I mean, I have some thoughts on that. I do have a lot of fairly uncharitable thoughts about competition policy for what that’s worth. I do think there are issues around efficiency within markets, and that is a problem. But it’s not at all clear to me that any of the people who are pushing the greedflation agenda, have any idea how to make markets more efficient. And none of their solutions would make markets more efficient or resolve any of those issues. So I I’m less convinced that that’s a solution to this problem. But what we have seen, I think, is over the last sort of 30 or 40 years, as you know, international trade has increased enormously as the sort of tyranny of distance, you know, internet, the ability of markets to sort of reflect international trends, competition has become enormously increased in a number of different markets. So the fact that it’s not immediately visible in Australia, because you can only see the Australian companies doesn’t mean that there’s not a whole bunch of potential competition that could arise there. So, but I mean, I think competition is important, and it’s not as efficient as it could be. But and I’d be very much in favour of making it more efficient. But I don’t know you make competition better or more efficient with more government?

Gene Tunny  50:47

Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah, we might have to come back to that in a future episode. I just thought of it because I know there’s a lot of talk lately about Qantas. And how close Qantas is to the government. And the government is making decisions in favour of Qantas like not letting Qatar Airways take a route into Australia. And at the same time, we’ve got Qantas coming out in favour of a policy position advanced by the government on the Voice, and it’s given Anthony Albanese, some chairmanship lounge membership.

Simon Cowan  51:17

Yeah well so I actually looked at this issue in the past too, and this is a really important thing, it’s what it comes down to is what the future direction of the economy is. So there’s, there’s a view where you say, you know, it’s big business and big union and big government, they all get together, and they do what they think is in the best interest of the country. Or there’s a model where you say, consumers should be sovereign, and they should make choices and the market reflects whatever people decide to buy with their money. And what we’re seeing is so many more people coming out in favour of that first view, the idea that, you know, the benevolent elites will come and decide what’s best for everyone and that Qantas and, you know, the ACTU and Jim Chalmers can get together in a room and decide what the priorities for the economy should be. And I mean, I fundamentally reject that view. But I think more importantly, my vision is not a business-centric one, it’s a consumer-centric one. Markets are consumer democracy. It’s not about what’s best for business. It’s what about what’s best for people and consumers?

Gene Tunny  52:17

Absolutely. I fully agree. Simon Cowan it’s been terrific. I’m so glad to have caught up with you here in Sydney at CIS’s offices. So thanks again for your thoughts and for your hospitality today.

Simon Cowan  52:30

Appreciate it. Thanks for your time.

Gene Tunny  52:33

Righto, thanks for listening to this episode of Economics Explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact@economicsexplored.com or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

53:20

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Immigration & Australia’s housing crisis w/ Alan Kohler – EP191

This episode delves into the pressing issues of housing and immigration in Australia, featuring a conversation with renowned financial journalist, Alan Kohler. The discussion revolves around the impact of high immigration rates on housing demand and affordability, emphasizing the need for coordination between immigration and housing policies. The episode also highlights the supply-side factors contributing to the housing crisis, such as restrictions on housing development and protections for character housing and heritage. The host Gene Tunny suggests the need for a national debate and parliamentary inquiry into Australia’s immigration rate and population growth to weigh the benefits of immigration against the challenges of housing and infrastructure. 

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple PodcastsSpotify, and Stitcher.

What’s covered in EP191

  • [00:01:58] Australia’s housing crisis. 
  • [00:06:47] The need to coordinate immigration and housing. 
  • [00:08:00] Short-term vs long-term rental – the impact of AirBnB, etc. 
  • [00:13:05] Local governments and the housing shortage. 
  • [00:18:30] Drop in average housing size. 
  • [00:22:32] Increasing housing supply as a solution. 
  • [00:24:17] Immigration and housing affordability. 
  • [00:28:07] The pandemic response and the housing crisis.

Links relevant to the conversation

Alan Kohler’s articles:

Labor immigration and housing policies are an explosive mix

Alan Kohler: Population growth equals economic growth, but for whom? 

RBA research on average household size:

A New Measure of Average Household Size | Bulletin – March 2023 | RBA

Previous Economics Explored episodes on housing:

Odd way to fix housing crisis proposed by Aus. Gov’t: invest in stocks first w/ Dr Cameron Murray, Sydney Uni. – Economics Explored

The high cost of housing and what to do about it w/ Peter Tulip, CIS – EP134 – Economics Explored

Missing Middle Housing podcast chat with Natalie Rayment of Wolter Consulting | Queensland Economy Watch    

Australian Financial Review articles on housing:

Housing supply crisis: How Auckland took on the NIMBYs and won 

1.3 million missing homes blamed on councils and NIMBYs 

Transcript:
Immigration & Australia’s housing crisis w/ Alan Kohler – EP191

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:06

Welcome to the Economics Explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning into the show. In this episode, I chat with renowned Australian financial journalist Alan Koehler about housing immigration in Australia. These are related highly topical issues in this country at the moment. You’re in Australia, you’ll probably know Alan from his nightly finance report on ABC News. Alan was usually popular in Treasury when I was there, because he’d always feature an interesting chart and his finance report, and would often talk about it the next day. In addition to being a finance reporter, and presenter at the ABC, Alan was the founder of the Eureka report and business spectator now owned by News Corp. Many thanks to Darren Brady Nelson for connecting me with Alan, please make sure you stick around after the end of the interview, because I’ll have a few words to say to wrap up. Okay, let’s get into the episode. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Alan cola. Alan cola. Thanks for joining me.

Alan Kohler  01:43

Not at all.

Gene Tunny  01:45

Alan, you’ve written some really great commentary on what’s been happening with housing and immigration here in Australia really frank and fearless commentary. And I’m glad to have you on the show to chat about that. In October last year, you wrote, If the Labour government doesn’t start coordinating immigration and housing, the mixture will be explosive, because Australia’s housing crisis is going to be horrific next year. I’d like to ask to start with Have there been any developments since you wrote that article that makes you more or less optimistic,

Alan Kohler  02:20

I suppose less optimistic in the sense that the increase in immigration this year has confirmed it’s 400,000. It’s it’s mainly catch up. But it’s clear that we’re back into higher levels of immigration. And the rental vacancy rate has not really moved. It’s gone from 1.1%, nationally to 1.2%. So that column II referred to was really just investigating job vacancies, and rental vacancies in various places around the country as well as nationally. So what I did was I went around to various places in the country, both cities and country towns, and looked at the number of jobs that were advertised on seek and compare that with the number of rental properties available on RPA. And just found that the number of job applications of job heads were vastly in excess of the number of places to live, if it was available. So you know, you’re wondering what’s going to happen. And when all these businesses needing staff advertising for staff in places like Warren ball or the Sydney Hills district or Cannes or Calgary? I mean, I looked at all these places, and there was a vast difference in the number of job vacancies and job ads and the number of places to rent.

Gene Tunny  03:50

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And you, you suggested that it could be horrific next year. Do you think it’s horrific at the moment?

Alan Kohler  03:57

Well, it’s certainly not getting any better. For sure. I mean, the government’s plan is to is to have a housing. Future Fund, as it’s called, was $10 billion in which and the earnings from that fund will be used to build houses, and they’re proposing to build 30,000 over five years. But really, that’ll scratch the surface. I mean, the number of places that are needed is vastly in excess of that.

Gene Tunny  04:23

Do you have any thoughts on the structure of that Future Fund? There’s been some criticism of it by various commentators such as John Corrigan, and Cameron, Mary and the greens are that they think it’s a bit futile. Do you have any thoughts on that yourself? I mean, I know you just said that. You think it’s just scratches the surface, but any thoughts on the structure of it what they’re trying to do there?

Alan Kohler  04:44

Well, the only thought I have is that it’s better than nothing. It seems to be quite complicated. The way they’ve got the money is going to be given to the the actual Future Fund Manager and then there’s kind of various places that the earnings go to some some of the states Some of the Commonwealth I mean, I look at this kind of bureaucratic structure and feel like the money will disappear before it gets anywhere. Because, you know, bureaucracies tend to make money disappear.

Gene Tunny  05:15

Yes. And the fund managers or, you know, they’ll they’ll earn some fees off it, too. Of course, I think that’s one of the points that that Cameron mentioned. Can I ask, what do you have in mind by starting to coordinate immigration and housing? What what sort of things do you have in mind there? Alan, have you thought about how they could do that?

Alan Kohler  05:37

Well, I think the main thing they need to do is actually have a hard look at how many houses are required, given the immigration policy that they have initiated. So they, they make a decision about immigration, they decide how many people are going to come to the country, right. And then they, they also have data on how many houses are available. And therefore they can know what housing is required to house, the people who are being invited to come to Australia, and also the people who are here and what the sort of current demand is. And then I need to find a way to create to make that housing available. Because otherwise, what you end up with is a soaring in rent, which is what’s occurred, there’s been huge increases in rent over the last couple of years. And also you get huge increases in house prices, because of the demand. And there’s just simply a lack of supply. So what I suppose what I’m talking about is, you know, actually doing something at the government level to create the housing. Now the question is, what will it be because, you know, there’s not enough, it takes too long to build houses, even if they even if the housing Future Fund had enough money in it to build enough housing, it will take you know, a couple of years to build the houses. So it’s not as if that’s going to be a quick solution. But one of the things I’ve been I’ve also been investigating is the question of short term rentals and Airbnb. And I did another column in which I kind of observed that the number of rental properties available in Australia, at the time, I think was a month or two ago, the number of rental properties on raa that were available in Australia was 51,000. And the number of properties on Airbnb and other short term rental sites was 300,000. Right? So there’s a huge difference. And also, I looked into the difference in rent that you get, for the same property as a as a lease on our a and on Airbnb and the differences about three times I think that there needs to be a difference because putting it on Airbnb is risky, because you might get a party or you might rent it at all. So there is a need for a risk premium. But the question is how much of a risk premium and I think it’s self evident that the risk premium currently, that’s available on Airbnb is too high, because not too many people are putting their properties on Airbnb rather than putting it on REO for lease, which is leading to a bit of a shortfall. The question is, how do you how do you redress that imbalance? How do you get, say 100,000 properties off Airbnb? And onto the long term lease rental market? I think there’s some way that the government needs to find to to achieve that. What I suggested was some some use of the Kevin Rudd rental subsidy scheme for the introduced I can’t remember the name of it now. But there was a rental subsidy scheme that was abolished by the coalition that was introduced by Kevin Rudd that was aimed at low income earners. And maybe there’s a way of modifying that in some way that could, in a sense, redress the imbalance in rent between short term and long term rental. But look, you know, I don’t have all the answers. I’m just saying that there needs to be some thought put into, not just into, into getting people into the country, which we clearly need. I mean, we need the immigration, it’s not I think the answer is to not have the immigration because the staff shortage is everywhere. Businesses are screaming for staff. And, you know, and also the care, the care industry, the care sector, healthcare, aged care, childcare, you know, we’re all struggling for staff so we need the immigration and also baby boomers and they’re retiring so there’s needs to at a higher level in general of immigration, to deal with baby boomer retirement, what I’m saying is that they need to combine some sort of housing policy with immigration policy and think about what they’re doing.

Gene Tunny  10:16

Yeah, yeah. I’m just trying to remember it was the Kevin Rudd policy, it may have been the National Rental Affordability Scheme. Was it N RAS? I can correct? Yeah. Yeah, it might put a link in the show notes or a few N RAS properties. out near Bowen Hills, I’m in Brisbane. So I think I think there are n RAS on with immigration and housing. So you mentioned I mean, we do need immigration. But we’ve suddenly got this 400,000 per year of immigration. Would there be scope for adjusting that from year to year, depending on labour market conditions of housing? Is that something that they should be actively considering? And more broadly, do we need a national? Would you say we need a national housing and population policy? And we need to have that debate about what’s the optimal rate of immigration given these other circumstances? Well,

Alan Kohler  11:13

it’s not 400,000 per year, it’s just 400,000. This year as a catch up for the pandemic when there was no immigration. So, you know, I think the what we’re heading back towards, as a long term rate of immigration is somewhere between 202 130,000, demographers are struggling to say there’s more likely to be 200,000, the Treasury forecast in the budget was 230,000. Long term. You know, I don’t know what it is. But it’ll be something around about 200,000, I guess. And that seems to be what’s needed, you know, to replace the baby boomers and to, you know, just to keep the place ticking over. So I think if what you’re talking about is some sort of adjustment separately to immigration to, you know, meet the housing that’s available. I think that to be the other way around that, really, the immigration needs to be the starting point. And they need to do something about the housing, short term in a hurry, and not just muck around with long term solutions.

Gene Tunny  12:21

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  12:27

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with Adept Economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice. We can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world. You can get in touch via our website, http://www.adepteconomics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  12:56

Now back to the show. To what extent you see the housing shortage as a result of restrictions at the local government level. Is it due to zoning? Is it due to character protection of character housing of heritage?

Alan Kohler  13:14

Oh, yeah, no doubt about it. I mean, I had a coffee the other day with a bloke who’s running a campaign in Melbourne, called EMB. Yes, in my backyard it stands for and it was started in San Francisco, which is got to Herrera to horrendous NIMBY problem in San Francisco. There’s there’s also a chapter in Canberra and one in Sydney, one in Brisbane. So there’s, they’re starting up here. They’re all young people, and they’re trying to get medium density housing built in the suburbs. You know, I really admire them going on, I think that that’s what’s required. That’s one of the problems in Australia is that we have a high density housing in and near the city with high rise. And then we have large blocks. We don’t have anything much in between we don’t have we don’t have the sort of four storey buildings that other countries do through the suburbs to allow people to allow a lot more people to live close to the CBD. I mean, one of the problems we have in Australia is that we have each city has one CBD. And so the further out you get, the more inconvenient it is, and so that that really puts a premium on housing, that’s, you know, within half an hour or an hour of the CBD. And because of councils zoning, there’s a limit on the amount of housing that’s, that’s being built in those, you know, within the hour commute from the CBD. And so, you know, that’s, that’s what’s required really, I mean, the characters the these people in in the MB movement going on and what they’re doing is they Going to the council meetings. So they’re not just putting out press releases, they’re going to the council meetings and speaking in favour of in favour of developments, housing, you know, apartment developments in those suburbs, because the one of the points they make is that when councils consider these proposal development proposals for, say, a five to 10 Storey, housing apartment block, the only people who bother turning up at the council to talk about it are those who are against it. And there’s never anybody who’s speaking in favour of it apart from the developer, which I think is an interesting point. You know, so the council’s really aren’t a hiding to nothing. I mean, they’re elected by the local constituents in, in their wards. And, you know, the constituents are all against anything being built. So, you know, they’re more or less on a hiding to nothing, you know, and I think so, there’s a bloke called Simon Kirsten maca, who’s a demographer in Melbourne, who I talked to a bit than his solution is for the federal government to give councils a quota of dwellings that they need to approve each year. And if they fail to meet the quota, they lose funding. And if they fail to meet the quota for the second year running, the administer administrators put in they they sacked, which is a pretty tough kind of solution. But he you know, he makes the valid point that this is a real crisis. Yes, we’re just not building enough housing. And we’re not building enough medium density housing, in places where it’s convenient to live. I mean, speaking in Melbourne, I’m not sure where love the place to be speaking about Melbourne, there’s a lot of fear a bit of housing being built in places like where are we in tan Eaton, you know, far our suburbs. But they’re incredibly inconvenient. I mean, the infrastructure is no good, you can’t get out of the place. People are spending an hour in the car, just to get their kids to school. You know, I just think that, you know, there’s there’s a real mismatch, there’s a real problem with where the housing is being built, and the amount of housing that’s being built in places that are convenient.

Gene Tunny  17:29

Yeah, I agree regarding the mismatch. So in Brisbane, here, the only places in the inner city where we’ve really seen an expansion of suppliers in former light industrial commercial areas where they’ve been able to redevelop such as at West End, or Milton and a new state, and we’ve got a lot of high density there. But yeah, we’re missing that, that more medium density, which I think would be really desirable. And I liked that idea of the financial penalties for council. I think that’s, that’s terrific. Another thing I’d like to ask Alan is about the there was a huge drop in the average housing size, and that’s associated Well, there are various factors. But during the pandemic we had, we had cheap money, we had people moving out of home earlier or leaving group houses. And we’ve got also a greater desire for space due to people working from home. And this has been people argued, some commentators or analysts are arguing that this is the big problem. Now it was this unexpected drop in that average housing size. And that’s what’s causing all the problems we’re seeing now. What I’d like to ask is, do you think that was, was that something that should have? I mean, is that something that’s unforeseeable and therefore, well, this is a, you know, this is a problem, obviously, but it was something that you really couldn’t do much about, and therefore, we just have to let it sort of play itself out. I mean, there’s, there’s not time for panic. I’m trying to think of the best way to ask this well, where I’m going with that. But that’s that’s one of the first things we’ve seen, is this drop in the average housing size? Do you have any thoughts on what’s happened there?

Alan Kohler  19:02

Well, the average house size, the average, the average number of people per house has definitely declined. It’s, I think it’s down to two and a half. I can’t remember what it is. But it’s certainly down from four to two and a half, something like that over over a decade. And I certainly when I was a kid, all the children that shared bedrooms, I mean, our I’ve got three sisters, there’s four of us. And it was a three bedroom house. But these days, all kids have to have their own bedroom, right? I mean, start the houses have to be bigger, to have the children, but also there are a lot of shared housing, that no longer exists. Look, you know, the number of people per house has definitely declined, but it’s not an act of God, but it’s certainly something has to be taken as a given. It’s not something the government can do anything about. You know, it’s not going to be able to say to we need to have more people that are housing, you know, let’s sort of cram in more on it’s not going to that’s not something government can do so it needs to happen. needs to be taken as a given that that’s the way it is. I mean, I think it’s starting to rise again now is because of the cost of rent, which is driving, particularly young people back into more shared housing. So I think I think the number of people who are house metric is on the rise again. But I don’t think it’s gonna get back to the where to where it was.

Gene Tunny  20:21

Right. Yeah. I think there was some RBI analysis that showed that prior to the pandemic, it was was over 2.55 or something like that. And then it dropped down to 2.4. A, and they’re saying that this meant that there was demand for an additional 120,000 houses or something. So that’s part of the problem. We’ve got it. At the moment. It was this. That’s one of the shocks that’s been experienced. And but I mean, so there’s this debate currently between or is it just that due to that shock, or is it due to the long term problem with building enough housing? I mean, I tend to lean toward the the fact that, you know, we haven’t built enough to because of restrictions in the past, or the restrictions, we’re still got. But yet, we’ve also got this shock that’s occurred. So it’s a combination of factors, what we’re seeing now,

Alan Kohler  21:11

certainly not one factor. I mean, there’s a number of factors. Yeah. Supply being restricted, declining household size, immigration increased in 2006, from 170 to 260,000. And kind of more or less stayed there. So, so that was a huge increase in the number of people coming into the country. And that’s kind of has continued and will continue. So there’s so there’s been a step up in immigration at the same time as house, household size falls and suppliers restricted. And also, don’t forget negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, which is encouraging demand from investors. And also, the other thing that’s been driving prices up is all of the first homebuyer grants, which tend to just go on to the price.

Gene Tunny  22:03

Okay, Alan, Carl, or any final remarks on immigration and housing. I’ve really enjoyed this conversation. Just anything you’d like to add before we finish up?

Alan Kohler  22:13

No, I think we’ve pretty well covered it and I’ve enjoyed the conversation. Two.

Gene Tunny  22:17

Very good. Thank you, Alan. Really enjoyed it. Thank you. Okay, I hope you found that informative and enjoyable. The main takeaway that I took from my conversation with Alan is that he sees the way to tackle the housing affordability problem is by increasing housing supply. He’s highly conscious of the demand for foreign workers by Australian industry, so he wouldn’t want to tighten up visa requirements to reduce the rate of immigration. Alan is absolutely right about the need to increase housing supply. I must say, however, that I’d be more willing than Alan to adjust immigration policy settings, given how difficult it is to increase housing supply in the short run. Certainly the Australian government’s proposed housing Australia Future Fund wouldn’t do much as I discussed with Cameron Murray in a bonus episode in late March. In my view, we need to have a national debate, possibly even a parliamentary inquiry into Australia’s rate of immigration. And we need to work out an optimal rate of immigration and indeed, of population growth. There are many benefits from immigration, of course, but they need to be weighed up against the short run challenge of housing so many new people and ensuring that we have sufficient infrastructure. In my view, we should possibly consider population decentralisation strategies. For example, we could relocate some administrative functions of governments to regional areas and hence we’d relocate the public servants. There are several regional cities out there will many regional cities out there that could could be good destinations such as Townsville, for example in North Queensland. We should also ask, why do we need to rely so heavily on immigration to boost our workforce? In the case of skilled labour? Why aren’t we training enough Australians to meet the needs of business? Furthermore, I’d note that students are a big part of the Margaret intake into Australia. And it’s difficult to argue that they’re mostly filling skilled jobs. The impact of our high rated immigration on housing demand and hence rents and house prices is probably large enough that we should ask whether the benefits to industry are sufficient to offset any adverse impacts on the broader community. Of course, as I discussed with Alan, housing affordability is a multi dimensional challenge. There are demand side factors such as immigration and the reduction in average household size, but there are also supply side factors. One of the supply side issues is definitely the restrictions on housing developments in our Cities, there are too many rules which are constraining the supply of housing and making it more expensive. We have various protections of character housing of heritage, and it makes it much more difficult to develop the housing stock that we need. If you’re a regular listener, you may recall that I spoke with Natalie Raymond from the Brisbane yimby group a couple of years ago. As Alan mentioned, yimby stands for yes, in my backyard. It’s a fantastic movement. I’ll put a link in the show notes to my conversation with Natalie, so you can listen to that episode if you haven’t yet. Again, if you’re a regular listener, you may recall that I also chatted with Peter tulip last year about the high cost of housing. Peter is a former Reserve Bank of Australia economist. He’s now chief economist at the Centre for independent studies where I’m an adjunct fellow. Peters estimated that for detached houses, planning restrictions are estimated to raise house prices 73% in Sydney, 69% in Melbourne, 42% in Brisbane and 54% in Perth. I’ll link to my conversation with Peter in the show notes too. I think it’s a great one. And Pete has done some really rigorous research on how these planning restrictions impact housing, so I recommend checking that out. Another former RBA economist Tony Richards, he’s just published some analysis of the impact of planning restrictions on housing supply, and it’s received some great coverage from my old Treasury colleague, John Keogh, who’s now at the Financial Review. John has summarised this research by Tony Richards as follows. Australia could have built an extra 1.3 million homes over the past 20 years. But costly zoning planning and building red tape imposed by local councils is chiefly to blame for a huge housing under supply. That sounds plausible to me. Indeed, I’ve been on the news here locally because I’ve gone up to the site of a of a redevelopment or proposed redevelopment up in Paddington on the corner of Latrobe and given terrorists with a page of workers club is and they wanted to redevelop that as a mixed use development with residential and commercial. But it was opposed by local residents. And yep, there’s no development there. And I mean, we really need to develop prime sites like that that are well located and think about the interest the greater community interest rather than just the the interest of people within the neighbourhood. We need to think about the greater good. Okay. I should note that there’s some evidence out of Auckland in New Zealand regarding the impact of up zoning on housing affordability, so up zoning is allowing redevelopment or high density uses of land that’s zoned for low density residential use. After up zoning began in Auckland and 2016, there was a building boom. And since 2016, rents in Auckland have only increased 10 to 20%. Compared with 40% in Wellington, it looks like there’s an even starker difference for house prices. So they’ve gone up only 20% in Auckland compared with 70% outside Auckland. So I took those figures from a recent financial review article, which I’ll link to in the show notes. So check out the show notes for any links to any studies or reports I mentioned also for any clarifications in case I miss remembered something or I’ve got something wrong. Okay, I might come back to the Auckland experiment in a future episode to have a closer look at the evidence. As always, we need to make sure we understand all the facts, we need to be conscious that correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation. And just because something follows something else. That doesn’t mean that they’re related, or there’s a causal relationship. That said the evidence from Auckland does look promising, and it makes sense from a theoretical perspective. Finally, I should note that the housing crisis we’re having in Australia is probably partly due to the pandemic policy response, including Ultra loose monetary policy, cheap money, and the lock downs. These policies stimulated demand for larger houses for those who could afford them. People demanded more space. They demanded studies so they could work from home and the international border closure for nearly two years, followed by its reopening in late 2021. That’s led to a huge amount of catch up immigration. As Alan noted in our conversation, all these new people need places to live in a rental market that is already extremely tight. So in different parts of the country. We’ve had vacancy rates for rental properties of around 1% In some cases under 1% Good paid with around three to 4% Normally, increasingly, we’re learning about the adverse unintended consequences of our pandemic response. Next time, our political leaders should think much more carefully about adopting such extreme policies, given the negative After Effects we’re now seeing, not to mention the adverse impacts including the restrictions on civil liberties that we saw at the time. We need to do much better next time if there’s another pandemic in the future. Okay, that’s about it for me, please let me know what you think about either Alan or I had to say about housing and immigration in this episode, you can email me via contact at economics explored.com. I’d love to hear from you. Thanks for listening. rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact@economicsexplored.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if you’re podcasting outlets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

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Credits

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Categories
Podcast episode

Odd way to fix housing crisis proposed by Aus. Gov’t: invest in stocks first w/ Dr Cameron Murray, Sydney Uni.

The Australian Government has been having trouble getting its proposed Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) passed by the Senate. The policy looks odd. With some justification, the Australian Greens have commented: “In its current form the Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) legislation will see the housing crisis get worse. We can’t fix the housing crisis by gambling money on the stock market and not guaranteeing a single cent will be spent on housing.” In their dissenting report on the bill, the Greens’ cited the views of this episode’s guest, Dr Cameron Murray. Cameron is a Post-Doctoral Researcher at the Henry Halloran Trust at the University of Sydney. 

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple PodcastsSpotify, and Stitcher.

About Dr Cameron Murray

Dr Cameron Murray is Post-Doctoral Researcher at Henry Halloran Trust, The University of Sydney. He is an economist specialising in property and urban development, environmental economics, rent-seeking and corruption.

Book: Rigged: How networks of powerful mates rip off everyday Australians

Website: https://fresheconomicthinking.substack.com/  

Twitter: @drcameronmurray 

What’s covered in this bonus episode

  • Cameron’s submission to the Senate Inquiry into the Housing Australia Future Fund Bill [2:39]
  • What’s going on with the Housing Australia Future Fund [5:02]
  • The only reason you can make a premium is if you take risk [8:57]
  • Why you need to separate the funding and the spending [10:36]
  • Why doesn’t the Future Fund just directly invest in new houses? [14:21]
  • How governments are increasingly doing financially tricky things that don’t make sense [19:23]
  • Cameron’s thoughts on the impact of the bill on the level of investment in housing [23:14]
  • What’s going on behind the scenes at Parliament House [26:18]

Links relevant to the conversation

Cameron’s submission to the inquiry into the Housing Australia Future Fund:

https://fresheconomicthinking.substack.com/p/australias-housing-future-fund-my

Direct link to Senate Committee inquiry report:

https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/HousingPackageofBills/Report

HAFF inquiry home page:

https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Economics/HousingPackageofBills

Transcript: Odd way to fix housing crisis proposed by Aus. Gov’t: invest in stocks first w/ Dr Cameron Murray, Sydney Uni.

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:06

Welcome to the Economics Explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, welcome to this bonus episode on the housing Australia Future Fund. The H A double f or half. It’s Saturday the 25th of March here in Australia and throughout the week, the Australian government has been having trouble getting the half passed by the Senate. That’s probably unsurprising because the policy looks like a bad one. With some justification the Australian Greens have commented in its current form the housing Australia Future Fund legislation will see the housing prices get worse. We can’t fix the housing crisis by gambling money on the stock market and not guaranteed a single cent will be spent on housing. That paragraphs from the Greens dissenting report on the housing Australia Future Fund bill. In that dissenting report, the greens relied significantly on testimony to the inquiry from my guest this episode, my fellow Brisbane based economist Dr. Cameron Mary Cameron is a postdoctoral researcher at the Henry Halloran trust at the University of Sydney. I recorded this conversation with Ken Friday last week on the 17th of March 2023. I’ll link in the show notes to Cameron’s submission to the inquiry into the half cam submission as a great example of the application of economic logic to an important economic policy issue. Cam sees through the accounting trickery and the financial engineer at behind the fund. He shows how the Australian government has been too clever by half. It’s trying to get credit for doing something about the country’s housing crisis. But what it’s proposing could be next to useless. Right. Let’s get into the episode. Please let me know what you think about what either camera I have to say by emailing me at contact at economics explored.com. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Cam Dr. Cameron Murray, welcome back to the show.

Cameron Murray  02:39

Thanks for having me again, Gene.

Gene Tunny  02:40

Oh, it’s a pleasure, Cameron, I read with much interest your latest post on fresh economic thinking. And it’s about your submission to the Senate inquiry into the housing Australia Future Fund Bill 2023 and other bills. Could you tell us a bit about what that involves? So you’ve written a submission to this inquiry? And you’ve also presented to the inquiry you gave testimony? Did you?

Cameron Murray  03:07

Yeah, that’s right. So this bill was passed their house, the lower house, and now the Senate is reviewing it. And what they’ve done is held this inquiry asked for public submissions, and had people who made submissions come in for a day of expert testimony so that their senators can ask specific people, you know, technical questions, what do you think about this? What about this design element? And so I was part of that on on Wednesday, this week. And yeah, so the bill itself is called the housing Australia future funding bill. And the basic idea is the government has decided to address Australia’s current housing problems. We’ve seen rents rise, we’ve seen rising homelessness, we’ve seen longer queues in public housing waiting lists, they’ve decided the best thing for them to do is take $10 billion from the Treasury and give it to the Future Fund, which is a sort of publicly managed investment fund, and cross their fingers and hope that that fund makes a return that’s higher than their opportunity cost, you know, the cost of the government’s dead and use that margin on the risk to fund something in the future, some unspecified, granting in relation to what in the text of the bill is called supporting housing need. So that’s what it was all about. And, and yeah, I gave some testimony on Wednesday.

Gene Tunny  04:35

So the federal government’s claiming that this is going to help them build I think 30,000 social housing dwellings over the next five years or so. So that’s their that’s the plan. But I think what I like about your submission is it essentially talks about how this is a rather roundabout way of going about it, which doesn’t actually guarantee you’re going to deliver it to you As in,

Cameron Murray  05:00

this is the mad thing. And this is. So let me start by saying, to be clear what they’re doing to build houses is taking $10 billion and buying all sorts of assets in the future funds that are not houses. Right? So that’s what they’re trying to do. And it’s really funny because there’s an actually an episode of Utopia, you know, the comedy show about the bureaucracy in Australia, where Rob switches character, who’s the sane one, amongst the insanity is explaining to a political staffer who says to him, What about an infrastructure? Future Fund? Yeah, don’t you get it, it’s about the future, he says. But spending the money on infrastructure today solves the future, we don’t need a fund. We don’t need a new office, we don’t need these fund managers. And you know, when we watch utopia, we all laugh and think we’re the same guy in the room. But what happened at the Senate inquiry is that I was the only guy and everybody else who laughed at Utopia when they watched it was the crazy guy who thinks that spending money on not houses is the best way to spend money on houses. And so there was this really perverse political slogan that kept creeping in, which was, this is going to secure funding for the future and insulated from future political decisions. And I just sat there going, I don’t, I’ve read this bill, because this funding is riskier, because you’re investing in a risky asset and the current Future Fund loss $2.4 billion last year, and spent half a billion dollars on fund managers to achieve that outcome. So we almost lost $3 billion last year. So it’s possible that we put 10 billion in this fund and have 9 billion next year. And then that’s the way we’re securing the future funding. The legislation is also written such that the future Minister has the discretion of how much from the fund to spend, and on what projects. And it also introduces a cap of 500 million per year that a future minister can withdraw from the fund. So what you’re actually doing is providing a great excuse for a future minister to spend less than 500 million. And in fact, zero if the fund is losing money. So there’s this weird disconnect between the political slogan of securing long term funding insulating it from politics and the reality, which is adding risk to a fund compared to just having 10 billion in the bank or at the Treasury where it is, and not insulating at all, and just still relying on future ministers discretion with no commitments. So that 30,000 dwellings you said, is not enough. There’s no, it’s not written in their rules. It’s written in the guideline as a hypothetical of how much, you know, if all went according to plan, and we would expect this, and I’m like, but there’s like, like many housing strategies and plans that the federal government and state governments have had in the past, there is nothing holding them to account on those promises. So yeah, it’s, it’s a really, really strange one. And I felt like there are about 20 or 30 witnesses or experts at the hearing. Now, only two or three of us actually calling this out the majority of the industry. And the researchers had really, I don’t know, bought the line that this is something that it’s not.

Gene Tunny  08:16

Yeah. So what’s going on, it appears to me is they’re essentially that borrowing, they’re going to be borrowing this money, or it’s going to increase the borrowing requirement by $10 billion, because we’re currently we have been running budget deficits. So it’s going to increase that, that borrowing requirement, we’re going to put that into this the future funds, so we’re essentially borrowing money to then invest in the share market or Enron’s Yeah, well,

Cameron Murray  08:45

if we’ve invested in bonds, we’re borrowing money to buy the bond back off ourselves. If this fund, if this fund is like eight or seven or 8%, government, Australian government treasury, that’s just pure accounting. Yeah, you know, trickery, you know, and that shows it but the whole thing is accounting trickery, right? Because, you know, you’re just recycling the money via the current shareholders of BHP into Telstra and Commonwealth Bank, right, by buying the shares off them and then later selling it back to them. And the only reason you can make a premium with this fund over the over not borrowing it, right, because you still gotta pay interest on the Treasury borrowing. The only reason you can make a premium is if you take risk. Yeah, if you’re taking risk, then it’s not a secure, long term funding thing. You’re just adding risk unnecessarily, and delaying spending money on building houses. And, you know, it took a little bit of explaining to get that through at the hearing. But ultimately, I had, for example, John Corrigan, you know, back me up on that argument, and I think Brendan Coates from the Grattan Institute who is a big supporter, the policy sort of had to concede that Yeah, at the end of the day, you’re adding risk in the hope of increasing the funding. But risk is real, right? We just can’t count on winning In the next few years,

Gene Tunny  10:02

right, so Brennan was buying the government’s line that this is about getting a secure funding source. He, I mean, I know you can’t speak for Brendan, I’m just wondering where he was coming from?

Cameron Murray  10:13

Well, actually, the idea is actually from one of our Grattan Institute report, and they proposed a $20 billion social housing fund. And, and, and, you know, I’m not averse to the government sort of diversifying the capital side, right on its balance sheet. Yeah. And and owning some high risk assets? I don’t, I’m not averse to that, in principle, right. But you’ve got to separate the funding and the spending idea. So the way I try to tell people, if the government’s saying we don’t have the money for it, it means we don’t want to do it. Because look at the submarines look at every other big look at the Olympics, right, no one’s has gotten the Olympic Future Fund, no one’s got a submarine future fun. We spend on what we want. And if someone’s saying where’s the budget, or where’s the funding, you sort of missing the idea, but but even more fundamentally, you know, if you go and raise money in the share market, from new investors for your business, each investor doesn’t say, I’ll give you this money, but you can only spend this money on, you know, cleaning your office and and the other shareholder says, no, no, but I only want you to earmark my money for doing this, right. What we do is we pool that money together and spend it the best way we can on the operations we need to do and it’s the same for the government, you need to separate Well, we’re gonna raise money, the best way we know how, whether that’s different types of taxes or borrowing, and we’re going to spend money the best way we know how and tying two things together is bad. Operationally, it’s just like, it’s bad for my business to promise one shareholder that their money goes to one type of spending, and another shareholder that I’ll only spend yours on new trucks. You know, it doesn’t really make sense it and it’s very hard to break through this kind of weird, I don’t know, budget illusion that we’ve all got that, you know, we must do this. For this, we must raise money in this way for this spending.

Gene Tunny  12:06

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  12:12

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with Adept Economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice, we can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world, you can get in touch via our website, http://www.adepteconomics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  12:41

Now back to the show. I liked how you wrote about this off balance sheet trick or the off balance sheet tricks, the basic idea of the half. So that’s the housing Australia Future Fund is to create an off balance sheet accounting trick whereby the debt associated with the fund and the assets in the fund are considered as a bundle and hence not counted in measures of public debt. So I mean, I haven’t seen exactly how they’ll what the accounting treatment of this will be in the budget, it seems to me what they’re doing is they’re setting this up as a, it’s an SPV, or some sort of public Financial Corporation so they can get it outside of the traditional balance sheet measures. They put in the budget, which is for they have it for general government, but then they also have public non financial corporations, but they don’t have public Financial Corporation. So I’m wondering if that’s what they’re going to categorise it as

Cameron Murray  13:34

I think, yeah, that’s part of the intention. And we actually see those types of budget tricks a lot, I think, New South Wales rail, you know, they tried to shift things off balance sheet, but at the end of the day, you know, we as economists should be looking through that, right. Oh, yeah. And saying, Look, you know, debts debt, but, you know, these are all assets, we can bundle them all together, you know, doesn’t matter where you’ve accounted for them. And the way we’re going to assess whether that debt was, you know, justified or efficient or productive is what, you know, what the investments made in general are, so whether it was on budget or off, you know, it should be the same, right, and you’re borrowing money to buy these assets. Doesn’t matter how you account for it. And that’s the that’s what sort of leads me to my other point is that houses are assets. Yeah. Australia’s property market is the hottest market every property every investor wants to own some. Yeah. So why doesn’t the Future Fund build new houses to expand this pool of property assets in the process, that equity can be on its balance sheet, but instead of, you know, bumping up the prices of BHP shares that you’re going to buy, you actually expand the housing stock in the process, and you can still have your off balance sheet tricks. I actually looked historically and since the Future Fund started in 2006, that’s the current investment fund Australia hands. They’ve made 7.8% average return annually, the average Australian dwelling increased in value by 7.7% per year since 2006. So just the capital value increase of owning a representative sample of Australian property would have got you the same returns as the Future Fund. So it’s not clear to me why we’re recycling this money via other assets, before we build housing assets, we can look at the balance sheets of state, public housing managers. Yeah. And when they value their land and their property portfolios every year, they got to bump it up, you know, 5 million billion. So here 10 billion here, because all this portfolio of properties they own, you know, it’s a valuable asset that rises in value. So So I’ve proposed quietly to a lot of people involved that if you want to have your financial trick and your Future Fund, get the border of the future find to only spend the money, building new dwellings, and then put the equity that you have, yeah, into the fund, you can keep your financial track, but at least you’re you know, keeping the housing construction going. And you’re immediately accumulating a pool of houses that you can allocate to the people who need it at a cheap price.

Gene Tunny  16:13

Yeah. And so is this been driven by the State of the Commonwealth budget, they, they want to make sure that they think they’re gonna get some earnings from this housing Australia Future Fund that can then offset the spending that they’ll have to make on public housing. So they want to get that they’re hoping they can get that. Because if they just go ahead and start building public housing, then they don’t have that revenue to offset that. Is that what they’re thinking?

Cameron Murray  16:39

I think you’re right, I think that’s what the thinking is. But at the end of the day, you know, having those houses supplied to people at a cheap price offsets are the spending on those people already. So the benefit is there, either in the form of the rental, or in the form of the income from the other assets. So, if I was to put on my cynical, political economist hat, I would say the reason this programme has gained so much traction and is probably going to be the law few months, is because it doesn’t change the housing market, it’s going to pass because it doesn’t achieve anything. And that’s what is truly desired. By, you know, the political parties involved is that they want to look like they’re doing something without actually doing it. I’ve had conversations with politicians who’ve told me what’s wrong with the housing market? You know, prices went up, because we dropped the interest rate, that’s good. And rents went up, because incomes went up. That’s good. There’s no market failure here. government shouldn’t do anything. So if that’s what they say to me, how is it then that they passed this bill that’s meant to do something, the only coherent story there is that this bill is to look like you’re doing something, but not doing something because you genuinely think the property market is doing what it’s doing? Well? Yeah, that’s my super cynical. Political Economy hat.

Gene Tunny  18:08

Yeah, you may well be right. I mean, it’s the Sir Humphrey Appleby type of approach where people actually don’t care about whether a problem solved, they just want it look as if something’s being done.

Cameron Murray  18:21

I’ve had a lot of people message me since my testimony to tell me their experiences of this. And I don’t know what I’m going to call this pattern, you know, does it have a name? I’ve tried to call it something like pre compromising. Where you take a good idea, you turn it into a bad idea, but it’s still got the same words in the bill. While so it looks like you’re still doing something. Yeah, you push that. And you’ve totally compromised the content, or the effectiveness, just so you can keep the name because the name is what people will talk about. And it looks like you’re doing something. It’s a what’s it called housing Australia Future Fund? Yeah. Sounds like something important is being done. Right. Yeah. And the more that gets in press headlines, the more we give credibility to the current government, who is trying to, of course tread this line of keeping prices up for people who own property, and pretending they want to keep prices down and rents down to people who don’t own property. And that’s a real interesting political tightrope. That happens a lot in this country.

Gene Tunny  19:23

Yeah, I really liked your submission, Cameron, because I thought it. I mean, it highlights our governments are increasingly doing these sorts of things. And they don’t really make a lot of sense when you think about it, because I remember when I was in Treasury, we had to set up these buildings Australia fund education investment fund, that’s I forget the name of the other one. And it didn’t really make a lot of sense because you’re just taking money and we ended up I think we ended up having to borrow money to put into them, because of the time you know, but the original idea was that there was Yeah, and they were gonna stick them in these funds, but then by the time On had to transfer the money, it was the financial crisis. So the timing wasn’t very good. And then they we see they constrain your ability to get cash. I mean, because you’re saying, Okay, we’re going to lock up all of this money in these funds, even though we don’t need it at the moment. So it can it can constrain your budget flexibility. So I don’t like them for that reason. And the other point that you’re making is your your, if you end up having to borrow to invest in it, well, you’re, you’re borrowing money just invested in the share market. And it’s not necessarily achieving the public policy objectives that you that you want to achieve. So yeah,

Cameron Murray  20:43

that’s exactly the way to put it, you’re gonna borrow 10 million to build houses for people and give it to them below market? Why do you need to recycle that money through the share market? Why don’t you put it through the pokies, there’s also a chance of making more money there, you know, it’s high risk. Why don’t you just take your half million, that half billion that you want to spend each year and spend it for the next 20 years, and just start a construction programme? Like, the really bizarre thing? To me, I read this bill. And in Part Seven H or whatever it is, it says, The Treasury will credit the housing Future Fund with $10 billion. It just doesn’t. And I just think to myself, How does where’s this 10 billion coming from? Aren’t we having this fund to get the money that we don’t have a now you’re saying we have 10 billion? If we have 10 billion? We don’t need the fund? Right? Yeah. And, you know, no one else seems to pick up on that, oh, we just credit with 10 billion. I’m like, why don’t you just build houses, credit them? Credit, the builders is 10 billion. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  21:45

So this is where they’re hoping that by doing it, you know, essentially gambling or well investing with borrowed money, they can get enough of a return on that, to then help fund this additional expenditure. And that’s going to lessen the budgetary impact. So that’s essentially what’s going on. And I just think it’s interesting, because it’s an interesting example of one of these. These things, these clever financial vehicles, the Polly’s and the advisors, I think, in particular, they love it, they think they’re geniuses, but it’s not really solving the problem.

Cameron Murray  22:20

Yeah. And let me just talk you through what I think is the best case scenario. They put money in this fund, sometime in the middle of this year, after we’ve had a big asset market correction, and they they’re near the bottom. In the next 12 months, there’s a real big boom. And in 12 months time, the ministers say, Oh, look, we’ve been making all this money. I’m gonna make this happen. Yeah, that’s the best case. The worst case is, you know, we’ve just seen a bank collapse in the United States, and you know, Swiss government bailout the Credit Suisse bank, the worst case scenario is they put $10 billion into the Future Fund, start accumulating assets in the next six months. And then come September, October, you know, popular time for financial market crashes, the fund loses 10% of its value. And next year, the minister says, oh, we can’t spend anything on public housing, because we just lost a billion dollars on the share market. Yeah, that’s, I don’t know which one’s more probable, but both are potential outcomes. And if the second one happens, you know, I hope the public and the press hold the government to account and say, Hey, this is what you wanted. You were told this is the risk you’re taking. And you still did it anyway. I really hope that opens people’s eyes. If that happens.

Gene Tunny  23:34

Yeah, that’s a good. That’s a good point. So you’re saying that the the level of investment in public housing could end up being dependent upon the returns on this fund

Cameron Murray  23:46

highly likely, implicitly, tells the minister only spend what you make, you know, for funds doing well spend money, if it’s not don’t spend money, the way it sort of described, and it’s got this cap in it as well. I would say there’s a sort of, you know, a built in excuse, yeah. Whereas you kind of want the opposite incentive. You want more public spending on housing during a downturn in the markets, right? You want to smooth out construction cycles. Yeah. Whereas I sort of feel this builds in the opposite political incentive. But the you know, the next 12 months are going to be very interesting if this bill is finally passed. And you know, the markets are very volatile at the moment. And the Future Fund, of course, lost a couple of percent last year, you went down the existing funds. So if that happens again, yeah. Who knows? Yeah.

Gene Tunny  24:40

Just before we wrap up, Cameron, can I ask you what was it like presenting to the committee? I mean, did anyone get it? Did any bells rang? Or what’s the expression? I mean, I imagined some of the Imagine that. There must have been, some of them must be sceptical, or I hope some of the people on this committee worse sceptical. But yeah. What was your impression?

Cameron Murray  25:05

My impression is that this process is a little bit of a charade. So that each political party in the crossbenches can get their sort of own experts on to provide excuses for the political bargain that they want out of this in the Senate. So I think most of the action is happening behind the scenes. And this is just each, each person in the Senate had a chance to call forth their own experts. And so that was done. My impression is that your committee is loaded based on the political party of the day, right. You know, I was cut off from my introduction, when I was saying, you get a few minutes to make introductory remarks. And I was explaining how I can’t believe you’re trying to describe this as a low risk secure, politically insulated funding stream when it seems the exact opposite. Yeah. And they’re like, oh, you know, we only allowed two minutes for these opening remarks get. And, of course, if you if you go and check the footage, everyone bloody rambled for five minutes. So you can sort of see that and, and, you know, I’ve spoken to a variety of Senators offices, as well. And they’ve obviously taken on board what I’ve said, but you don’t see minds being changed. Live during this process. That’s not where it happens. It’s all happening with phone calls and meetings and negotiations amongst each party and independents are

Gene Tunny  26:36

all behind the scenes. Okay. Because I was just wondering, I imagine that the, the greens would probably be pushing the for the government just to build public housing. Right. Yeah. Well, that must be in there. That’s right. So

Cameron Murray  26:50

I think it’s Nick McKim is the green senator from Tassie. And he was, you know, onboard when I started my opening remarks by saying, you realise there’s a scene in the comedy show utopia, right? We started today. That is exactly what you’re doing. But you all laughed with the other side of the joke. And now you’re you are the joke. And so he got a few chuckles But you know, the other the other people didn’t really like it. So yeah, the greens are definitely not keen on these off balance sheet financial tricks at all, which is really puzzling, right? It’s really puzzling to me. I don’t know what the Liberals should be sort of have a similar mind being a bit more honest financially and say, let’s focus on what’s a waste of money and what’s not. Let’s not focus on where you record it in the accounts. So I don’t I don’t know what their views are. But my impression is the Labour Party, you know, they’ve almost got this superannuation brain, or this Future Fund brain like this sort of, yeah, it’s inhibited their ability to go, you know, this is not magic. It’s not a Magic Pudding. It’s just buying different assets.

Gene Tunny  27:57

Yeah, yeah, exactly. So I’ll put a link to your submission in the show notes. I think it’s really good. And you make a good point about how, yeah, I didn’t realise the fees paid by the Future Fund for funds management was so high, but I guess it makes sense, given the amount of funds under

Cameron Murray  28:13

point 2% of the funds under management. That is still half a billion dollars a year, which is of course, again, the maximum that this Future Fund for housing can actually spend on housing subsidies or housing construction. Yeah. So the maximum they can spend is roughly what the average management fee is for the existing Future Fund. Yeah, just to get your orders of magnitude straight of what’s involved.

Gene Tunny  28:40

Okay. And, yes, it has been passed by the lower house, it’s going to it’s being considered by the Senate at the moment, and it’ll probably be passed, I imagine, based on what you were saying,

Cameron Murray  28:51

my understanding is the cross bench has a lot of power in the Senate here to get things changed. My suspicion is that if there are key crossbenchers that take my argument seriously and a couple of other of the submitters as well, they may, for example, put in the legislation a minimum amount of spending out of the fund instead of a maximum to sort of guarantee it. And they may, you know, and that might just be a way of diverting instead of buying bhp shares and Commonwealth Bank, you know, build houses with it and own the equity of those houses with your public housing developer or however you account for that. So that that that may be a realistic change. I don’t think it’s gonna get thrown out or go back to the drawing board.

Gene Tunny  29:38

Right. Okay. Well, again, well done, Cameron. Yeah, excellent submission, lots of very sound, economics and public finance in there. Any final words before we wrap up?

Cameron Murray  29:49

No, I just want to, you know, cross my fingers that the best case scenario turns out if this fun gets passed.

Gene Tunny  29:55

Very good. Okay. Cameron Murray, thanks so much for appearing on the show.

Cameron Murray  29:59

Thanks for having me, Gene.

Gene Tunny  30:02

Righto, thanks for listening to this episode of Economics Explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact@economicsexplored.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

Cameron Murray 30:49

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this or to begin your own podcasting journey. Head on over to obsidian-productions.com

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au

Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

The high cost of housing and what to do about it w/ Peter Tulip, CIS – EP134

Property prices have been surging across major cities in advanced economies. In Australia, a parliamentary inquiry has recently investigated housing affordability, and it handed down a report with some compelling policy recommendations in March 2022. Our guest in Economics Explored episode 134 provided an influential submission to that inquiry. His name is Peter Tulip, and he’s the Chief Economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, a leading Australian think tank. Peter explains how town planning and zoning rules can substantially increase the cost of housing.  

You can listen to the conversation using the embedded player below or via Google PodcastsApple PodcastsSpotify, and Stitcher, among other podcast apps.

About this episode’s guest – Peter Tulip

Peter Tulip is the Chief Economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, a leading Australian think tank. Peter has previously worked in the Research Department of the Reserve Bank of Australia and, before that, at the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors. He has a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania.

Links relevant to the conversation

Inquiry into housing affordability and supply in Australia

CIS Submission to the Inquiry into Housing Affordability and Supply in Australia

Gene’s article Untangling the Debate over Negative Gearing

Missing Middle Housing podcast chat with Natalie Rayment of Wolter Consulting

A Model of the Australian Housing Market by Trent Saunders and Peter Tulip

Transcript of EP134 – The high cost of housing and what to do about it w/ Peter Tulip, CIS

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:01

Coming up on Economics Explored,

Peter Tulip  00:04

We know that zoning creates a huge barrier to supply. And it’s not clear that there are any other barriers that can account for distortions of this magnitude.

Gene Tunny  00:17

Welcome to the Economics Explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist based in Brisbane, Australia and I’m a former Australian Treasury official. This is Episode 134 on the high cost of housing. Property prices have been surging across major cities in developed economies. In Australia, a parliamentary inquiry has recently investigated housing affordability, and had handed down a report with some interesting policy recommendations in March 2022. My guest this episode provided an influential submission to that inquiry. His name is Peter Tulip. And he’s the chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, a leading Australian think tank, which I’ve had a little bit to do with myself, over the years. Peter has previously worked in the research department of the Reserve Bank of Australia, and before that, at the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors. He has a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania.

Incidentally, here in Australia, we had a federal government budget handed down in late March 2022. But it didn’t take up any of the proposals in the housing inquiry report that Peter and I discuss this episode. The budget extended an existing housing guarantee scheme, which helps a limited number of first-time buyers avoid mortgage insurance. But the budget didn’t really do anything substantial to improve housing affordability. So we are still waiting for improved policy settings here in Australia, which would make housing more affordable. In my view, such policy settings would not include some more radical ideas that have been injected into the policy debate, such as the government itself becoming a large-scale property developer. That would be too interventionist and too costly policy for me to support. In contrast, what Peter is suggesting in this episode is a very sensible and well thought out set of measures that deserves serious consideration from decision makers.

Okay, please check out the show notes for links to materials mentioned in this episode, and for any clarifications. Also, check out our website, economicsexplored.com. If you sign up as an email subscriber, you can download my e-book, Top 10 Insights from Economics, so please consider getting on the mailing list. If you have any thoughts on what Peter or I have to say about housing affordability in this episode, then please let me know. You can either record a voice message via SpeakPipe, see the link in the show notes, or you can email me via contact@economicsexplored.com. I’d love to hear from you. Righto, now for my conversation with Peter Tulip on the high cost of housing. Thanks to my audio engineer Josh Crotts for his assistance in producing this episode. I hope you enjoy it. Dr. Peter Tulip, chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, welcome to the programme.

Peter Tulip  03:10

Hi, Gene. Glad to be here.

Gene Tunny  03:12

Excellent, Peter. Peter, I’m pleased to have you on the programme. So earlier this month, an Australian parliamentary inquiry chaired by one of the MPs, one of the members of parliament, Jason Falinski, released a report on housing in Australia. And it quoted you among other economists, and I was very pleased that you actually referred to a paper that I wrote a few years ago on a housing issue here in Australia. And that was in your submission. And yes, you got quite a few mentions in this report, which was titled The Australian Dream: Inquiring into Housing Affordability and Supply in Australia. Now, Peter, would you be able to tell us why is this such an important inquiry, please, and what motivated you to make a submission to the inquiry, please?

Peter Tulip  04:20

Sure. So the report’s huge. It’s 200 pages long. They had hearings for several months. And I think about 200 people or more made submissions to the inquiry. So there’s an enormous amount of information. And it’s motivated by these huge increases in house prices, that the cost of housing has gone up 20% this year, on the back of similar increases in previous years. So you go back a decade or two and the price of housing has tripled. And that’s having all sorts of huge effects throughout Australian society. It’s making housing unaffordable. And that’s reflected in homeowners can’t get into the market, because deposits are incredibly high, renters suffering a lot of stress. There’s an increase in homelessness. Because housing is one of the largest components of spending, the huge increase in housing costs is having a huge effect on household budgets, changing the way we live. 30-year-olds are living with their parents. Tenants are living with flat mates they don’t like. People are having to suffer three-hour commutes to work. Housing affordability is a real problem in Australia.

Oh, sorry. The other huge issue is that inequality dimension is enormous. So society is increasingly divided up into wealthy homeowners who are having very comfortable lives, and renters and future homeowners who are really struggling. And that’s becoming hereditary, because it’s very difficult to get into homeownership without parental assistance. The Bank of Mum and Dad, it’s often called. And so it’s the children of the wealthy that get a ticket, these enormous capital gains. And people without and less privileged, they’re really suffering.

Gene Tunny  06:38

Yeah. Now, you mentioned the big increases in house prices we’ve had in Australia so over 20%, or whatever, since the recovery for the –

Peter Tulip  06:48

Just this year.

Gene Tunny  06:49

Yes, yes. But we’ve seen big increases around the world and in capital cities around the Western world, from what I’ve seen. The Financial Times had a good report on that last year. Was it the case that our house prices were high relative to benchmark? If you look at things like house prices relevant relative to median income, they were high prior to the pandemic. There’s been this big surge since the pandemic with all the monetary policy response. Is that the case that they were already high and they’ve got worse?

Peter Tulip  07:28

Yeah. And there are a lot of different benchmarks. And the benchmark partly depends on the question you’re asking. But Australian house prices are high in international standards. So for example, one think tank, Demographia, put out a league table of housing affordability. And they looked at, what is it, something like, it’s 100 or 200 big international cities around the world. And Australian capital cities have 5 of the top 25 cities in terms of expense, in terms of price-to-income ratios. So that’s one of many possible benchmarks you can use. And by that benchmark, Australian cities have very expensive housing.

Gene Tunny  08:24

Yeah, yeah, exactly. Okay. Now I just want to talk about the inquiry and how it went about its job. I found the preface to it or the foreword written by, I think it was must have been by Jason Falinski, quite fascinating. He talked about two different tribes of people in the housing policy arena in Australia. The first tribe consists mainly of planners and academics who believe that the problem is the tax system, which has turned housing into a speculative asset, thereby leading to price increases. Okay. And then he talks about how the second tribe believes that planning, the administration of the planning system, and government intervention have materially damaged homeownership in Australia. I think I know the answer to this, Peter, but it’d be good if you could tell us which tribe do you fall into? Do you feel fall neatly into one of those tribes?

Peter Tulip  09:30

Yes, I’m in the second tribe, and as in fact, are almost all economists. I mean, this is one of those issues where you get a real division of opinion between economists and non-economists. And a lot of the most vocal of those non-economists are probably town planners. So there have been a lot of economic studies of the effect of planning restrictions on housing prices. And they find very big effects using a whole lot of different approaches. And that’s a result that’s been replicated in city after city around the world there, and dozens and dozens of papers, economics papers showing planning restrictions are a very big factor, explaining why housing is so unaffordable. And town planners don’t like that and complain and they don’t believe that supply and demand is relevant for prices. They will say that in varying degrees of explicitness. The general public doesn’t like to admit that result. They don’t take part in the academic debates.

Gene Tunny  11:04

So we’re talking about restrictions on what you can build in particular areas. So in Brisbane, for example, where I am, we have restrictions on to what extent you can redevelop these old character houses. A lot of these old character houses, these old Queenslanders, the tin and timber houses, they’re protected in the inner-city neighbourhoods. In other state capitals, you have similar restrictions for different types of properties. And so it ends up distorting the development that you see. In Brisbane, we end up with these horrible, tall apartment towers in just small pockets of where there’s some activity allowed because it was formally allied industrial or commercial area. But yeah, it seems logical to me that we are restricting the supply, because if we had fewer restrictions, presumably we’d see more medium density development, or at least that’s what I think. It doesn’t seem controversial to me that supply restrictions would lead to an increase in prices.

Peter Tulip  12:17

Oh, well Gene, now you’re sounding like an economist.

Gene Tunny  12:20

Well, I mean, I read Ed Glaeser’s recent – I think it’s Ed Glaeser.

Peter Tulip  12:25

He’s done a lot of stuff on the issue. In fact, he may be the leading expert in the world on this topic.

Gene Tunny  12:31

Yeah, yeah. He’s very confident in this impact. Now, you’ve done research on this, haven’t you, Peter? You did research at the Reserve Bank.

Peter Tulip  12:43

Before we get to that, Gene, just a comment on what you just said. There are lots of planning restrictions. They come in dozens of different variations. But there are two of them that are especially important, one of which is zoning as it’s strictly and conventionally defined, which is separation of different uses. Most of Australia’s cities, as in fact is the case for a lot of cities around the world, most of our cities are reserved for low-density housing. That’s single-family detached houses. And in most of Australia’s cities, as cities around the world, apartments, townhouses, terraces are prohibited. Where medium or higher density housing is permitted, there are height limits. And so even if flats and apartments were permitted at your local train station, there’ll be a limit on how high that building can go. Brisbane actually, what you mentioned, is not a very bad offender in this, and so particularly around the river in Brisbane, there’s been a lot of tall apartment buildings, and partly reflecting that, apartment prices in Brisbane are pretty moderate. But in Sydney and Melbourne, the height restrictions are really severe. And so as a result, apartment prices are much, much higher.

Gene Tunny  14:28

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Okay, so you did research a few years ago, didn’t you, when you were at the Reserve Bank, on the magnitude of the impacts? Now these impacts could be even larger now, given prices have increased so much, but do you recall what sort of magnitudes of impacts you were getting, Peter, from these types of restrictions?

Peter Tulip  14:49

Yes, so the effects are huge. The way we looked at it was to compare the price of housing relative to the cost of supply. And in a well-functioning market, the price will equal the cost of supply. But planning operates as a supply restriction, sort of just in the same way as a quota or a licence to supply will. A lot of cities have taxi licences, and it’s the same thing, that you have a restriction on output, so the price goes much higher than the cost of supply.

And we found when you look at detached houses, the effects are huge in Australia’s big capital cities, I think 70%. Around 70% in Sydney, about 60% in Melbourne, was also very large in Brisbane and Perth. I can get into the details of how we actually estimate that. The more important figure for policy is for apartments, because that’s where the real demand for extra housing is. That’s where the big policy debates are. If we do want more dense housing, it will have to come in the form of urban infill. And again, we find very big effects there, especially for Sydney. I think the effect was about 60%, or a bit higher, it raises the cost of housing. In Melbourne, it was moderate, about 20%. And in Brisbane, actually, we didn’t find much of an effect. It was fairly small, just a few percentage points. But as you say, prices have risen very substantially in the, what is it, four years since our data was put together. So those effects will presumably be bigger.

Gene Tunny  16:52

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  16:57

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Gene Tunny  17:26

Now back to the show. Okay, so we’ve talked about the views of one of the tribes, the tribe that you’re a member of. There’s another tribe, which it’s arguing, oh, it’s all to do with tax policy settings. And, look, we’ve got some quirky tax rules here in Australia. Well, to an extent they’re logical, and which is one of the arguments I made, but they’re different from what happens in some other countries. We’ve got this thing called negative gearing whereby if you lose money on your rental property, taking into account your interest costs and depreciation and the whole range of expenses that are eligible, then you can use that to reduce your taxable income. That reduces the amount of tax you have to pay. And that’s outraged many people in the… There are a lot of people who don’t like that as a policy and think that’s a big problem and leading to higher prices. And there’s also rules around capital gains, concessional taxation of capital gains.

Peter Tulip  18:48

So the whole tax of housing is one of the more controversial parts of this. So can we talk about that?

Gene Tunny  18:55

Yeah, go ahead. Yeah. I’m interested in your thoughts. Yeah.

Peter Tulip  18:59

In fact, you’re the expert on this. In fact, as you mentioned earlier, a lot of what I’ve learned on this topic comes from a paper you wrote in 2018, which was published by the Centre for Independent Studies. It might be easier if you give a quick rundown on what the key issues are. Actually, before that your professional background is probably really relevant here. So in the interest of disclosure, do you want to tell the listeners where you learned about all of this and your experience?

Gene Tunny  19:35

I was in the Treasury, so tax was one of the issues we looked at, but the main research I did on this issue, on the issue of negative gearing and capital gains tax, came from a consulting project I did for a financial advisory firm here in Brisbane, Walshs. Walshs, they clients who are – they have investment properties. And so they were very interested in what the potential impacts of the federal opposition’s policies regarding negative gearing, so changes to that. So basically limiting it and not only allowing it on new houses, if I remember correctly, newly bought properties. And they were concerned about what that would mean for their clients and then what it would mean for the market.

So certainly, negative gearing does make investing in a rental property more attractive. It does two things. So it does lead to more rental properties, and it does push down rents. And it also increases the price of houses to an extent because it does increase that demand. So look, there’s no doubt that it is impacting on prices, but it doesn’t seem to be a huge effect. I got something like 4%. Grattan when they looked at it got 2%. Some other market commentators, I think SQM Research, Louis Christopher thinks it could be 10 to 15%. It’s hard to know, It’s not a huge impact. So you’re not going to solve housing affordability by getting rid of negative gearing. At the same time, there are logical reasons why you’d have it.

Peter Tulip  21:43

Can I just butt in there, Gene? You’re underselling your research. What you said is all right. Everything there is correct. But, in fact, since your study, there have been a whole bunch of further empirical studies and academic studies on the effect of negative gearing, and, and they essentially get the same result as you, that these effects are tiny. So there was a bunch of Melbourne University academics. There was a study by Deloitte and a few others. They use actually different approaches. So the Melbourne Uni study is the big structural model micro-founded in assumptions about preferences and technology. And so we now have a range of different studies, all using different approaches. And they’re all finding the results, the effect on housing prices comes in between about 1% and 4%. So I think we can be more confident than you were suggesting about this result. It’s a big important controversial issue. So we need to talk about it. Listeners need to be aware that it just doesn’t actually matter for anything.

Gene Tunny  23:15

Yeah. So I think one of the main points that’s important, I think, in that whole negative gearing debate is that it is quite a logical feature of the tax system, and as the Treasury explained in one of their white papers, on tax issues, it’s important for having the same treatment of debt and equity if you’re buying an investment property. So I thought that made sense. So there’s some logic to it, and it certainly does improve the rental market. Now, look, there was a huge debate. It was all very political. I thought, well, certainly it would impact house prices. And then that ended up becoming a big story. And there was a lot of discussion about that and just what could the impact on the market be.

Peter Tulip  24:15

Is the problem negative gearing or the discount for capital gains tax? Because they interact.

Gene Tunny  24:21

Yeah, I think that’s part of it. But I think there is a logical reason to have concessional treatment of capital gains, particularly if –

Peter Tulip  24:33

Concessional taxation of real capital gains?

Gene Tunny  24:37

We don’t adjust them for inflation.

Peter Tulip  24:41

We do it both ways. My sense is you can argue that there is distortion, that an investor can put, I don’t know, $10,000 into a property improvement and write that off against tax with depreciation. But then that will increase the value of the property, presumably by about $10,000. And though they get the full deduction, they only have to pay tax on half the benefit. So there is an incentive towards excessive investment in housing for that reason.

Gene Tunny  25:30

Look, potentially, I think you could argue about those capital gains tax settings. Yeah, certainly, I think that was one of the things I acknowledged in the report, if I remember correctly. So yeah, I guess the overall conclusion is that I didn’t think negative gearing was the villain that it was being portrayed as, and if you did make changes to it along the lines suggested you could end up having some adverse impacts. If you look at what estimate I made of the potential impact on house prices, and you look at how much house prices have increased in recent years, you think, well, who cares?

Peter Tulip  26:15

It’s one week’s increase. I think you’re exactly right. And while I say I think there is an argument that it creates distortions, if you fix that up, you then create distortions elsewhere, as you said, between debt and equity, and there are distortions between investors and owner occupiers. And given that so many different aspects of housing are taxed differently, it’s impossible to remove all the distortions. You remove them somewhere, then create them somewhere else. And the bottom line is that this doesn’t really matter, the housing affordability. The effects on prices are small and positive. And there are offsetting effects on renters, which I think are often neglected. Negative gearing promotes investment in housing and is good for landlords. And because it’s a competitive market, the free entry, that gets passed on in lower rents.

Gene Tunny  27:21

Yeah, yeah, exactly. So I’ll put a link to that paper in the show notes. So if you’re listening in the audience, and you’d like to check that out, you can read it. Bear in mind it’s now over. It’s four years since I wrote that, and probably six years since I did that report for Walshs. I think the logic is all correct. And I think the analysis still makes sense because it was a static model in a way. Yes. It was a static model. I was just looking at how much does a change in tax policy settings affect the rate of return for an investment property? So you could argue it’s still relevant in that regard. But the whole political sort of imperative, it’s not as big, it doesn’t figure as much in the political debate now, of course, because the opposition has dropped it as a policy, because I think they’ve recognised that, look, it is unpopular, because there are a lot of people – there have been in the past – fewer people now with low interest rates, but there have been a lot of people in the past who have been negative gearing. So I think they accept that it’s probably not a policy that is popular with the public.

Peter Tulip  28:35

But also, it’s just a non-issue. It wasn’t going to deliver benefits in terms of housing affordability. So I think one of the reasons I dropped it, or at least the reason I would have told them to drop it, was it was just a red herring.

Gene Tunny  28:50

Yeah, yeah, I think that’s correct. That’s how I would how I would see it. Okay, we might go back to the Falinski report. I know it does deal with this issue in the… It is part of the conversation for sure. Where did the Falinski report come down on deciding which of these two tribes is correct? Did it make a judgement on that or did it –

Peter Tulip  29:17

It’s strongly on the side of economists, of those who argue that planning restrictions have large effects on house prices. The commission discussed it in a lot of detail. It’s all of Chapter Three, I think of the report. It’s the first substantive policy-oriented chapter of the report. It’s some of their lead recommendations. And they note that there were… I think they described it as the most controversial issue they dealt with, with very lengthy submissions on both sides.

Their assessment was that the weight of evidence is not balanced. It’s overwhelmingly on the side of those who think planning restrictions have big effects on prices. In fact, they cited our submission, which said there have been a lot of literature surveys of this research. I think we cite six of them by different authors, a lot of them very big names in the policy world. And all of those surveys conclude that planning restrictions have big effects on prices. And the commission recognise that even though it’s hard to tell in the noise on social media, if you look at the serious research, the weight of evidence very clearly goes one way.

Gene Tunny  31:01

Okay. What does that evidence consist of, Peter? You’ve done your own study. Was your study similar to what others have done around the world? And broadly, what type of empirical technique do you use?

Peter Tulip  31:17

So in fact, there have been dozens and dozens or more years of studies on this question, both in Australia and in other countries. The approach we used is… The reason we used it was we thought it was the best and most prominent approach to answer these questions. And it’s been successfully used with essentially the same results in a lot of cities in the United States, some focusing particularly on coastal cities, some on California, some on Florida. There’s a big study for the United Kingdom and a lot of European cities, another study in Zurich in Switzerland, studies in New Zealand, all using essentially our approach of comparing prices with the cost of supply. And they all come up similar results.

Other people have looked at planning restrictions more directly. So for example, we know that planning restrictions are very tight in California and very loose in a lot of Southern and Midwestern cities in the United States. And there, you get a very strong correlation with prices. California is incredibly expensive. Houston, Atlanta, places with relaxed zoning are relatively inexpensive.

Gene Tunny  32:46

So is there a regression model, where you’re relating the price of housing to cost of supply, and then you’ve got some… Do you have an indicator variable or a dummy variable in for planning restrictions? Is that what you do?

Peter Tulip  33:05

So there are lots of different ways of doing it. Yes, people have constructed indexes of the severity of planning restrictions. That’s one way of doing it. The most famous of these is what’s called a Wharton Index, put together by researchers at the University of Pennsylvania, in fact, my old alma mater. Our approach doesn’t actually – and this is a criticism that some people make of it – it doesn’t actually use direct estimates of zoning restrictions, because they’re just very difficult to measure. But when you have prices substantially exceeding costs, you need to find some barrier to entry. And just as a process of elimination, we know that zoning creates a huge barrier to supply. And it’s not clear that there are any other barriers that can account for distortions of this magnitude.

Gene Tunny  34:10

Right, okay. I better have another look at your study, Peter, because I’m just trying to figure out how did you work out what’s the cost of supply? You looked at what an area of land would cost, where it is readily available, say on the outskirts of a city, and then you looked at what it would cost to build a unit on that or a house on that site?

Peter Tulip  34:38

So where it’s simplest is for apartments, because there you don’t need to worry about land costs, and which is a big, complicated issue. But you can supply apartments just by going up. And so we have estimates of construction costs from the Bureau statistics, to which we add on a return on investment, interest charges, a few tax charges, developer charges, marketing costs. There are various estimates of those other things around, and they tend not to be that important. And the difficult thing is getting an estimate of the cost of going up, because as you increase building height, average costs increase. You need stronger foundations, better materials, extra safety requirements, like sprinklers and so on. You need more lift space. So a lot of it involves a discussion of the engineering literature in housing, where we can get estimates of things like that. And they exist both in Australia and in other countries, where the other people that did that. And that’s how we get our estimate of the supply cost.

Gene Tunny  35:59

Okay. That makes sense now.

Peter Tulip  36:03

That’s one way of doing it. There are other ways of doing it. So you can assume that’s the cost of going up. We can also do the cost of apartments by going out. And there you just make an assumption that it’s the average cost of land in that suburb or on that street or in that city, is the land cost. And then you get a cost of going out, which in some cases is a bit higher, some cases a bit lower.

Gene Tunny  36:33

Yeah, yeah. Okay. That makes sense to me. Can I ask you about the recommendations of the Falinski report? It looks like it’s come down. It supports the view that, yep, supply is a big issue. And also, there’s this issue of now we’ve got this issue of young people having this deposit gap, haven’t we, that it’s difficult to save up for a deposit? So that’s another issue. And I think it’s made recommendations that may help with that. I don’t know. But would you be able to tell us what you think the most interesting and the most important recommendations are of that inquiry, please, Peter?

Peter Tulip  37:13

So I think the most important recommendations go to the issues we were just talking about, the planning restrictions. A difficulty with that is that this was a federal government inquiry. But responsibility for planning regulations rests in state and local governments. And so there’s not a lot that the Commonwealth government can do, other than shine a very big spotlight on the issue, which I think it has done. It’s helped clarify a lot of the issues. And it’s putting more pressure on state and local governments to liberalise their restrictions. But I think the most important recommendations is it wants to couple that with financial grants, and in particular, provide grants to state and local governments in proportion to their building activity, so that neighbourhoods that are building a lot of housing get more support from the Commonwealth Government than neighbourhoods that are refusing to build anything at all.

his should help allay some of the local opposition. We get to housing developments, that a lot of neighbours and local residents understandably complain if new housing is going in, in their neighbourhood, without extra infrastructure, without transport, parks, sewerage, and so on. And what the Falinski report says is we’ll help with that, that we don’t want local neighbourhoods to bear the burden of increased population growth, it’s a national responsibility, and so the Commonwealth will help. So I think that will be the most important recommendation, that should improve incentives to local and state governments to improve housing. Want to go to some of the other recommendations that I think are interesting?

Gene Tunny  39:34

Yeah, I was just thinking about that one. They obviously haven’t put a cost estimate in the inquiry report. So they’ve just said, oh, this could be a good idea. But then we’d have to think about what this ultimately would end up costing.

Peter Tulip  39:47

So our submission put dollar figures on it, even though Jason Falinsky didn’t want to sign on to actual numbers. These conditional grants in terms of housing, good housing policies, could be in place of current Commonwealth programmes that are of less value. And one that’s just been in the news a lot the last few weeks is, I think it’s called the Urban Congestion Fund, which is essentially something like a slush fund that the government uses to channel money towards marginal seats. That’s about $5 billion the Commonwealth uses at the moment.

We could remove that invitation to corruption, and at the same time, solve some of our housing problems by instead, by making that conditional on housing approvals. And if you use that $5 billion, divide that by the, what is it, 200,000 building dwellings that get built in Australia every year, that works out at something like $25,000 per new dwelling. A grant like that will provide a lot of local infrastructure. It’ll give you a new bus route, it’ll give you a new park, it’ll give you some new shops. It’ll fix up the local traffic roundabout, and so on. You could do even more than that, if you start looking at state grants and other grants that are currently on an unconditional basis.

Gene Tunny  41:38

Right. So was the origin of this recommendation, was it from your submission, was it, Peter, the CIS submission?

Peter Tulip  41:44

In fact, a lot of people have been recommending a policy, something like this. We talked about it maybe a bit more detail. But the Property Council of Australia actually wrote a paper on this a few years ago, sorry, commissioned a paper by Deloitte, which discusses some of these issues. But in fact, it’s been proposed in a lot of other countries around the world. And so the original Build Back Better proposal from the Biden administration had substantial grants from the US government to local governments along these lines, and that’s been cut back a little bit in their negotiations. They’re still talking about substantial grants from the federal government, to local counties that are improving their housing policies.

Gene Tunny  42:43

Right. Okay. That’s fascinating. Now, I have to have a closer look at that. Yeah. On its face, it sounds yep, that could be a good idea. As the ex-Treasury man, I’d be concerned about the cost of it to the federal government, but you’re saying we’ve wasted all this money on various pork barreling projects anyway, we could redirect that to something more valuable.

Peter Tulip  43:13

And if you want to talk about really big money, you could change grant commission procedures, so that if housing were regarded as a disability, in the formula for dividing up, the GST, the fiscal equalisation payments with the states, then states that are growing quickly and providing a lot of housing should be able to claim money for the extra infrastructure charges that requires. I think that’s consistent with the logic of the Grants Commission processes. And they currently already do this, but something like this to transport. So there is a precedent, and that would substantially improve incentives for state governments to encourage extra housing.

Gene Tunny  44:08

Yeah, yeah. Okay. Just with the supplier restrictions, am I right, did they make a recommendation along the lines that local councils and state governments, they should look at existing restrictions with a view to easing those restrictions? Did they say something along those lines?

Peter Tulip  44:26

It’s not a formal recommendation, but that’s emphasised in several places in the report, and I think it might be… I can’t remember the exact wording. Recommendation one certainly discusses that issue.

Gene Tunny  44:43

Right. Okay. I should be able to pull that up pretty quickly.

Peter Tulip  44:49

It’s not something the Commonwealth can do something directing it. So the wording is a bit vague. That’s clearly the thrust of the report. Yes.

Gene Tunny  45:03

Right. Yep. So the committee recommends that state and local governments should increase urban density in appropriate locations, using an empowered community framework as currently being trialled in Europe. I’m gonna have to look at what an empowered power community framework is sometimes. I haven’t heard that before. I had Natalie Raymond on. She’s a planner here in Brisbane. And she got an organisation called YIMB, Yes In My Backyard. So I’ve chatted with her about some of these issues before, but I can’t remember hearing about this empowered community framework. Have you come across that concept at all, Peter?

Peter Tulip  45:45

It’s something that the report is very vague about.

Gene Tunny  45:50

Okay.

Peter Tulip  45:52

No, I’m not sure what that means either.

Gene Tunny  45:55

I’ll have to look it up.

Peter Tulip  45:57

Should we talk about some of the other recommendations?

Gene Tunny  45:59

Oh yes, please. Yeah, keen to chat, particularly about this idea of tapping into, well, they didn’t recommend allowing people to withdraw money for housing, for a deposit for a house. But they made some recommendation around superannuation. Would you be able to explain what that is, please, Peter?

Peter Tulip  46:19

This, I think, is one of the most interesting recommendations. And it wasn’t explicitly discussed in detail in any submissions they received. But it’s something that I and the CIS have been talking about in the past, so we were delighted to see it get up.

The argument is that people should be able to use their superannuation balances. But people outside Australia, that would be equivalent to something like a 401K or Social Security in the United States, or Social Security contributions in several European countries. People should be able to use those balances as security or collateral for the deposit for their house. And so lenders would reduce deposits, presumably by the amount of the collateral, by the amount of the superannuation balance.

The committee argued that the main obstacle towards homeownership in Australia is getting the deposit together. And this recommendation is directly aimed at making that easier, and it does it in a way that doesn’t cost the taxpayer anything. And it doesn’t jeopardise the retirement income objectives that superannuation is set up to solve.

So there have in the past been proposals that people should withdraw their money from their superannuation to pay their deposit. And the objection to that is that will just undermine retirement income objectives. And in particular, the compulsory superannuation system is set up on the assumption that people are short-sighted and will tend to fritter away their assets if they’re made too liquid. This objective, allowing withdrawals from superannuation is directly applicable to that argument.

But using superannuation as collateral doesn’t is not subject to that argument, that the superannuation balance will only be touched in the very rare and the unexpected event of foreclosure. Historically, that’s a fraction of a percent houses ever go into foreclosure. So it would be extremely unlikely to affect retirement incomes. But at the same time, people have saved this money, it’s their asset. So they should be allowed to use it in ways they want, that don’t jeopardise their retirement income. And using it as security helps in that.

Gene Tunny  49:35

Yeah. Do you have any sense of how the banks will react to this, how lenders will actually react to this? Is this something that will be attractive to them? Has anyone made any announcements along those lines?

Peter Tulip  49:51

Not that I’ve seen. You would hope and expect that if the policy is put together well, that deposits would be reduced by something like the order of the superannuation balance. And it could be a bit more or a bit less. It may be a bit less because the superannuation balances are risky. It may be a bit more because they’ll be growing over time with. We don’t know exactly how those things will factor in. You would hope and expect that deposits would be reduced by about the amount of the superannuation balance.

Gene Tunny  50:34

An interesting recommendation. I was wondering just how much of an impact it could have. But then the way you explained it, I think it makes it a bit clearer to me how this could potentially have some benefit. Yeah.

Peter Tulip  50:54

It’s not huge. The people that most want this are going to be young, first home buyers having difficulty. People having difficulty getting a deposit tend not to have huge superannuation balances. And there are a few numbers floating around. The average super balance of say, a 30-year-old tends to be, I think there was one estimate I saw, it’s about a quarter of the average deposit on a house for a first home buyer. So it doesn’t get you all the way there. It does get you a sizable bit of the way there so that instead of it taking eight years to save for a house, it’ll only take six years. And you use the super for those other two years. That doesn’t solve the problem. But I’m sure there are lots of first home buyers that will appreciate getting into their home two years earlier than would have otherwise been the case.

Maybe the other point to make in this is that I think superannuation is unpopular, particularly amongst young people, because it is an obstacle to homeownership, that people would like to be saving, but instead 10% of their income has gone off to this account that they wont see for 50 years.

Gene Tunny  52:22

Do we think they would be saving, Peter? I wonder. That was the reason we introduced the super system in the first place.

Peter Tulip  52:28

Exactly. Well, there are some people that would like to be saving for a house. Yeah, superannuation definitely makes that harder. And as a result, superannuation is unpopular. The effect of this policy is it changed it from being an obstacle to being a vehicle towards homeownership. And so I think it makes the superannuation policy more popular.

Gene Tunny  52:51

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Okay, so I’ve got in my notes, and I must confess, I’ve forgotten what your paper… You wrote a paper with Trent Saunders in 2019. What was that about, Peter?

Peter Tulip  53:06

So that’s a big one in the housing area. We did a lot of empirical modelling of the Australian housing market, and trying to put together how the prices and interest rates affect housing construction, nd then how does housing construction feed back under prices and quantities. So there have been a lot of studies of individual relationships in the housing market. But there’s feedback between construction and other variables. So it was always difficult seeing what the full effect was, without allowing for that feedback. And the big result from that paper that got all the headlines was on the importance of interest rates. So partly interest rates are very important for construction. But even more surprisingly, they’re very important for housing prices. And in particular, the big decline in real mortgage rates that we’ve seen over the past 30 years or so, accounts for a very large part of the run-up in house prices over that period.

Gene Tunny  54:20

So with the cash rate, the RBA policy interest rate, it’s expected to go up, and then borrowing rates will go up. And there are some economists and market commentators speculating this could lead to falls in house prices, some double-digit falls, if I remember correctly, in some capital cities. So there’s that issue. I’m keen for your thoughts on that. Also immigration. If we reopen Australia as we are and we have net overseas migration running at 250 to 300,000 or whatever it was before we had COVID, what will that do for house prices?

Peter Tulip  55:09

Our paper tries to estimate. In fact, a big point of the paper is exactly to answer and quantify those questions. House prices are an interaction between supply and demand. And in the short run, the bigger effect on demand is interest rates. And that, for example, is why, we talked earlier, house prices have risen over 20% just in this past year. That was essentially a response to the record low interest rates that the RBA implemented just prior to the prices taking off. And you’re right, our model suggests that that’s going to go into reverse over the next few years as interest rates increase. Interest rates go up and down. And in the long run, you would expect them not to trend so they don’t explain trend changes in prices. The big trend increase in demand in Australia has been immigration. Our population doubles or so every generation or two. And so that creates an ever increasing demand for housing that we need to supply.

I don’t know if you’re about to ask this, but I’ll ask the question. How does this relate to our earlier stuff on zoning? Essentially, they’re asking different questions. Zoning is asking the question, how do we change process in future, how do we adjust policy? The previous paper is empirical. Policy is given, and asks, what explains changes in the past? And they’re slightly different questions. The effect of zoning is to make supply inelastic, like just a vertical supply curve. I’m sorry, I’m waving my arms around, and people listening on a podcast aren’t going to know what I’m doing. But the changes in interest rates and immigration increase the demand curve, shift the demand curve out to the right. And so it’s the interaction of supply and demand that drives house prices. So it’s a combination of rising demand and inelastic supply.

If we fixed up, if we had a better planning regime, that instead of being inelastic, the supply curve would be flatter, would be closer to horizontal. And then these big increases from immigration and low interest rates would result in extra construction instead of extra prices.

Gene Tunny  58:05

Yeah, yeah. Okay. So I’ll put a link to that paper in the show notes. I just realised Trent Saunders, he’s in Queensland now.

Peter Tulip 58:10

He’s at QTC.

Gene Tunny 58:11

Queensland Treasury Corporation, yep. He’s been doing some good stuff. So that’s terrific. Okay. Peter Tulip, chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies. Thanks so much for the for your time today. That was great. I think we went over a lot of the economics. I’ll put plenty of links in the show notes for people because some of these studies, they’re fascinating studies and also, it’d be good to just… You may be interested in the empirical techniques and in more of the details. So Peter, again, really appreciate your time. Thanks so much.

Peter Tulip  58:56

Thanks, Gene. It was great to talk.

Gene Tunny  58:59

Okay, that’s the end of this episode of Economics Explored. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, please tell your family and friends and leave a comment or give us a rating on your podcast app. If you have any comments, questions, suggestions, you can feel free to send them to contact@economicsexplored.com and we’ll aim to address them in a future episode. Thanks for listening. Until next week, goodbye.

Credits

Big thanks to EP134 guest Peter Tulip and to the show’s audio engineer Josh Crotts for his assistance in producing the episode. 

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

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What is the Economy? And Why It Matters to You | EP121

What is the Economy? And Why It Matters to You is a new book from UK economics writers Beth Leslie and Joe Richards, who are interviewed in episode 121 of Economics Explored. Legendary music producer Brian Eno has endorsed the book, writing “This clear and comprehensible book is long overdue.”

About this episode’s guests – Beth Leslie and Joe Richards

Beth Leslie is a writer and editor. She became interested in economics when she realised it was a great way to better understand the world around her. Beth is currently the Editor for Economy, a charity that seeks to make economics more understandable for everyone.

Joe Richards is an author, educator and economist. After the financial crash of 2008, Joe’s family lost their business and the home they grew up in. Spotting a lack of public understanding in the economy, Joe’s journey in economics began. Joe campaigned to make economics more accessible for everyone, working with organizations from the Bank of England and BBC News, to local schools and the UK government.

Where you can purchase What is the Economy? And Why it Matters to You:

US https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/what-is-the-economy-9781786995605/

UK https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/what-is-the-economy-9781786995605/

Australia https://www.booktopia.com.au/what-is-the-economy–beth-leslie/book/9781786995605.html

Thanks to the show’s audio engineer Josh Crotts for his assistance in producing the episode. 

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

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