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Is DeFi the Future of Finance? Exploring VirtuSwap’s Vision w/ Prof. Evgeny Lyandres – EP262

Explore the mechanics of decentralized finance (DeFi) with Professor Evgeny Lyandres, who breaks down how decentralized exchanges work and how VirtuSwap stands out in providing liquidity for small-cap crypto assets. With insights into the challenges and future of tokenization, this episode offers a clear view of where DeFi may be heading. Evgeny is Professor of Finance and Head of the Blockchain Research Institute at Tel Aviv University. Disclaimer: This podcast episode contains general information only and is not financial or investment advice. 

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com.

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Apple Podcast and Spotify.

Timestamps for EP262

  • Introduction to Decentralized Exchanges and Their Potential (0:00)
  • The Evolution and Functionality of Decentralized Exchanges (6:38)
  • Challenges and Solutions in Decentralized Finance (22:18)
  • The Future of Crypto and Decentralized Finance (43:32)
  • Optimizing Liquidity and the Role of AI in Decentralized Exchanges (55:15)

Links relevant to the conversation

Evgeny’s academic web page:

https://lyandres.sites.tau.ac.il

VirtuSwap website: https://virtuswap.io/ 

Previous episodes on web3, DeFi, crypto or blockchain:

The Future of VC: Blockchain, Web3, and Emerging Markets w/ Qin En Looi, Partner, Saison Capital – EP256

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/10/01/the-future-of-vc-blockchain-web3-and-emerging-markets-w-qin-en-looi-partner-saison-capital-ep256/

Navigating Volatile Crypto Markets & Avoiding Scams w/ Ben Simpson, Collective Shift – EP249  https://economicsexplored.com/2024/08/14/navigating-volatile-crypto-markets-avoiding-scams-w-ben-simpson-collective-shift-ep249/ 

Digital Money Demystified w/ Prof. Tonya Evans – EP216

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/11/30/digital-money-demystified-w-prof-tonya-evans-ep216/

Crypto arbitrage searcher Dave Belvedere on crypto and dApps such as Wizards & Dragons – EP178

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/03/08/crypto-arbitrage-searcher-dave-belvedere-on-crypto-and-dapps-such-as-wizards-dragons-ep178/

Bitcoin & books w/ author & ex-fighter pilot Lars Emmerich – EP157

https://economicsexplored.com/2022/09/18/bitcoin-books-w-author-ex-fighter-pilot-lars-emmerich-ep157/

Takeaways

  1. Tokenization of traditional assets, such as stocks or real estate, is a future possibility for DeFi that could expand its impact well beyond the current crypto market.
  2. Liquidity pools and smart contracts are essential to DeFi, providing a protocol-based framework where trades occur automatically based on programmed rules.
  3. VirtuSwap’s unique pool structure, including virtual liquidity reserves, is designed to address the liquidity challenges for less-traded assets in DeFi.
  4. With the aid of AI-driven systems like Minerva, DeFi platforms can optimize liquidity allocation, potentially offering higher returns for liquidity providers and more efficient trades for users.

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Transcript: Is DeFi the Future of Finance? Exploring VirtuSwap’s Vision w/ Prof. Evgeny Lyandres – EP262

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Evgeny Lyandres  00:06

This is basically the reason why I think this market is important, right? It’s not because of its importance right now. I mean, it’s not that, right? It’s because of the potential, which I think is there, right, a potential to kind of revolutionize many of the financial technologies that that we’re familiar with.

Gene Tunny  00:29

Hello and welcome to the show. In this episode, I’m thrilled to welcome Evgeny Lyandres, a Professor of Finance and head of the Blockchain Research Institute at Tel Aviv University. He’s also the co founder of VirtuSwap, a decentralized exchange platform. Evgenys’ expertise lies at the intersection of finance and blockchain technology. Today, we’re diving deep into the world of decentralized finance or defi. We’ll explore how decentralized exchanges work, the challenges of providing liquidity for smaller crypto assets and VirtuSwaps’ unique approach to addressing these challenges.

Special thanks to Lumo Coffee for sponsoring this episode. This top quality organic coffee from the highlands of Peru is packed with healthy antioxidants. Economics Explored listeners can enjoy a 10% discount, details are in the show notes. Now let’s jump into the episode. I hope you enjoy it.

Evgeny, welcome to the program.

Evgeny Lyandres  01:34

Great to be here. Thank you very much for having us.

Gene Tunny  01:38

Excellent, of course. So yeah, I’m really interested in, in what you’re up to. I mean, you’ve got a background as a as an academic professor of finance and head of Blockchain Research Institute at Tel Aviv University, and you’re also involved in defi and in blockchain with your own company. So I’d like to ask you about your company, is it VirtuSwap?

Evgeny Lyandres  01:58

Yes.

Gene Tunny  02:00

Okay so what I’ve learned, or the information that was sent to me about it, is that it’s a decentralized exchange platform that gives traders direct liquidity for smaller cap assets. So I think what would be good is just unpack what all of that means. So one, what do you mean by decentralized exchange platform, and then what do you mean by direct liquidity for smaller cap assets? Could you take us through that, please Evgeny?

Evgeny Lyandres  02:34

Of course, of course. So starting with from from afar, to give a little bit of a background, right? So, so obviously, decentralized exchange is an exchange where assets are traded, right? In particular, in our case, it’s crypto assets, right? You know, think about Bitcoin, Ether, stable coins, and, you know, 1000s of other crypto assets. Now, there are two ways that the trading in those assets is conducted. The first and still kind of the predominant way, is trading on centralized exchanges. You know. Think of Binance or Coinbase, or maybe FTX, that you know existed until a year and a half ago, but no longer. A lot of trading happens there, and those exchanges are organized very similarly to, kind of the traditional exchanges of other asset classes, such as stocks, right? So think of, you know, NYSE or NASDAQ, right? It’s basically order book based exchanges. Now there are few issues, few problems with with centralized exchanges, and the problem basically stem from the fact that those are centralized entities in a largely unregulated environment, right? So some centralized exchanges, such as Coinbase, are regulated, right? Most are not, right? And so if you combine those two things together, right? So, a centralized entity in an unregulated environment, right? You know, bad things can happen. I’ll give you a couple of examples, right? So, of course, all of us know about exchanges that go bust, because basically they still, you know, depositors fund right? The FTX is a good example. There are other issues, right? One of them is that a lot of those exchanges engage in significant wash or fake trading, right? So basically, what they’re trying to do is they try to increase the reported trading volume, right? Because that is, you know, increasing their placement in the kind of the ranking the league table of of exchanges, right? So they’re interested in inflating volume, because this is, you know, one metric that investors or traders look at when deciding where to trade, right? Now, this is pretty bad for trader, right? Because if you go in exchange and you see an order book, right? You, you stink, you, it seems deep, right? So you want to place your trade. But the actual liquidity oftentimes is significantly smaller, right? And that basically means that your trade is going to be executed at, you know, far worse terms than you know, what you thought it would be executed, right? So basically, there is a big problem of lack of transparency that is driven by, you know, very strong competition, right? And competition is there just because, you know, the entry costs into this industry are very low. It’s, it costs very little to set up, you know, a centralized exchange. It’s basically kind of, you can use a white label software to just to set up a new one. And as I mentioned, lack of sufficient regulation, right? So the bottom line is, lot of people trade on centralized exchanges, and some of them are fine, right? So, you know, Coinbase is definitely fine. Binance seems to be fine, but not all of them, right? And there’s, you know, quite a lot of academic research on kind of the problems associated with the centralized exchanges. And so defi and in particular, decentralized exchanges, right? Is one way to address, you know, the problems that we mentioned. So let me tell you, you know, briefly, what a decentralized exchange, right? So decentralized exchange is basically a protocol, a computer program that resides on the blockchain, right? Any blockchain that enables smart contracts that basically defines the terms of trade in a very kind of precise, programmatic fashion, right? And that basically means that it’s a collection of basically formulas, right? Say, Well, you know, if you exchange this amount of one asset into another asset, right? You’re going to get precise amount of that other asset the function of some parameters of the you know, of the exchange. Those exchanges are organized using so called liquidity pools, right? And so that brings us to, kind of to the main players, right in this, in this market, right? There are two. The first one is traders, right? So those are people you know, that want to exchange one asset into another. The second, and the crucial type of players in this, in this market, is what’s called liquidity providers, right? So, liquidity providers can be, can be anybody, right? Can be you or me. It’s people who basically supply liquidity two so called liquidity pools with a goal of this liquidity, right, helping conduct trades, right? So let’s say that I want to establish a pool of two tokens, right? You know, whatever they may be. So I’m going to put $1,000 worth of one token and $1,000 worth of another token into the liquidity pool. Now the pool has been established, right? And those tokens right at this point, $1,000 worth of both could be used for trade, right? So you can come to the pool and say, Well, I want to take $10 worth of one token and supply another token into the pool, and the pool basically is going to be set at set up in such a way that you know the terms of trade are going to be defined by the amount of liquidity currently existing in the pool, by the relative prices of those two assets, right. And that basically the ratio of the two assets in the pool right, and the size of your trade. Okay, we can go deeper into, you know, what types of pools there are, but typically, you know, it’s involved in a pretty simple math, pretty simple kind of formulas for defining those exchanges, right? But it’s basically going to be a function of only two things, right, the current composition, the first state of the pool, and the size of the size of the trade and direction of the trade that you want to perform, right? So that is kind of the the basics of decentralized exchange and this type of trading technology that’s very novel, right? And does exist outside of decentralized finance, or outside of blockade based finance right is possible because of kind of the nature of the blockchain, right? That, basically, blockchains allow smart contracts. Smart contracts are, you know, no more than if that condition right, the defining if something happens was was going to be the result, right? And so, so basically, it’s possible, because of the technology of blockchain, right? But in theory, at least, you can even think about this technology being useful for trading other assets, right? So you will any pretty much, right. The financial technology is the same, yeah. So that’s kind of the basic or so decentralization, we’re very happy to go, obviously, deeper into it and, and, of course, we’re going to talk about, you know, what we do in the space. But what is our, what is Virtu of contribution,

Gene Tunny  09:50

you know? Yeah, absolutely, I definitely want to go deeper into it. Yes. So, I mean, what are examples of decentralized. Exchanges. I mean, there’s your decentralized exchange, Virtu swap, and how does it compare? What’s its differentiating factor from other exchanges? It sounds like that you’re focused on smaller cap assets. Can you tell us about that? Please. Evgeny, of course,

Evgeny Lyandres  10:17

of course. So in general, kind of decentralized exchanges started in about 2017 2018 so you know, about seven years ago now, by two protocols. The first one was called bancor. The second was called uniswap, still called uniswap, and both protocols still exist. Uniswap at this point is the most successful and the most famous decentralized exchange protocols currently responsible for, I would say, about half, if not more, of all trades in decentralized exchanges, right? And just to put things in perspective, about a quarter of all trades of crypto assets is done on decentralized exchanges. The other three quarters are done on centralized exchanges. And out of this quarter, uniswap, you know, gets about half of the market share. So this is the predominant kind of decentralized, you know, the biggest and the most successful decentralized exchange, and also an exchange that constantly produces a lot of innovation into this market, right? So let me give you maybe a half a minute kind of history of the evolution of this market, and then we’ll get to what we do, right? So it all started with, you know, with the first version of municipal in around 2017 2018 right? And basically, the idea there was, well, you know, we can exchange assets using this, this, this kind of smart, smart water based technology that we discussed. And in the first version, the exchange work very simply, right? So the exchange could only be done, you know, between ether, right, which is the the token of the Ethereum ecosystem, right, with Bucha, Spain, and any other, what’s called ERC 20 token, which is a, basically a token that that is based according to a certain kind of standard, and within the first version, right, which basically kind of it should you can think of this as a proof of concept, right? The trading was not very the terms of trading were not very attractive, right. So think about a situation where you want to exchange your two tokens, right? You know, think you know, USDC, a stable coin and some other token, wbdc, right, Bitcoin, okay, so what you would have to do, right, is basically do two trades, right? It would need to exchange USDP into, you know, ether, and ether against WBC now. And, you know, doing multiple trades would basically expose you to to multiple costs, right? So let’s first talk about all the costs involved in a trade, right? And then we’ll think about, you know, what does mean to have all those basically doubled or multiplied, right? So generally, three types of costs, you know, for a trader on a decentralizing change. The first one is so called full fee, right? And that is basically a fee that a trader needs to pay to the liquidity providers in the pool, right? Because, you know, you need to somehow incentivize people to provide liquidity, right? Otherwise, you know, nobody’s going to put money in the pool. There needs to be something in it, you know, for the liquidity provider, right? So, and you know, the the fee, basically, is, you know, some small proportion of the trade that is not being exchanged for another asset, but instead is given to the liquidity providers, right? So think about, you know, numbers between five, usually, and between five and 100 basis points. Okay? So 0.05 to 1% that’s the first type of the cost. The second type of the cost is what’s called the price impact. The price impact, right? Is basically due to the fact that the trading function on any exchange is not linear, right? And, you know, you can think about a good analogy, is a typical exchange of assets, right? When there is an order book, right? So the bigger your order is, the deeper you’re going to go into the order book, and the works is going to be the execution price, right? So smaller trades are going to be executed and the marginal the current price, right, the bigger trades are going to be executed at worst price. Same thing happens on decentralized exchanges, right? The typical kind of the most simple and the most famous, actually, formula for conducting the trade and decentralized exchanges is what’s called the constant product formula, right? And basically means x times y equals some constant k, right? So for example, you know, going back to example, to an example, I am. I mentioned before, right? So if I provided $1,000 worth of liquidity in one asset and $1,000 worth of liquidity on the other asset, right? You know, if you divide this $1,000 by the initial prices of those assets, right, that basically defines the quantities of the assets initiative deposited into the pool, right? So let’s say just let’s take the example that I deposited in 500 units of asset a and 200 units of asset B. If you multiply those two numbers, so 500 times 200 so that’s 100,000 right? That defines that constant product, right? And any trade you know in this pool, unless the liquidity changes, right, is going to be based on this product, meaning that if I want to take a given amount of one of the assets in the pool, I need to supply an amount of the other asset, right, such that this product remains constant, and that basically, you know, defines a so called hyperbolic function, right? It’s not linear, right? It’s a convex kind of function of price. What I’m trying to say here is that the second type of the costs of trading in on this centralized exchange is basically what’s called the price impact, right, the effect on the price at which you’re trading, right, as a function of the size of the trading and then, then the third part, the third cost of training, that is basically what’s called the guest cost, right? So this is the transaction cost that need to be paid by the, you know, people, kind of writing blocks on the on the blockchain, right, recording the new blocks and kind of certifying, right? So those are the three costs, three types of costs. Now coming back to this example of trading, you know, stable coin into rev Bitcoin, right, where the intermediate asset is, for example, ether, right? All of those costs, right, the price impact, the pool fee, the gas fee, need to be multiplied by two. And so that was the issue, right. So, so the trading terms were not super attractive, right? So, as a thought experiment, this was a fantastic innovation, right? So this was really a new way to conduct trading, you know, practical terms. It was not great yet. And so then, you know, this ecosystem, you know, started gradually improving and developing. The next kind of step was the second version of the unicorn protocol that’s called v2 okay, that’s that’s what people refer to, usually. And the biggest kind of innovation there was that you didn’t have to necessarily go through ether as an intermediate assets. You could basically construct pools, or establish pools with any two assets, right? With any two ERC 20 tokens, right? And so then you could think of us about a situation where, you know, someone would establish a pool of USDC against Red Bitcoin, right? And people would be able to trade in the school directly, without going through the third assets, obviously, reducing. The point is, this is important, and this is the point I’m going to come back to, right? But it didn’t really solve all the problems, for reason I’m going to describe in half a minute. Since then, you know, this kind of, this setup, right? This technology of decentralization, is have evolved further. The first big innovation was the third version of UNICEF, unusual v3 Right? Which basically allows so called concentrated liquidity, right? So here’s the problem. The problem with, you know, the trading technology that described so far is that, basically, the liquidity that liquidity providers put into the pool, right, is sort of uniformly distributed across all possible exchange rates in the pool between exchange rate between the two assets, you know, from zero to but it turns out that the price impact becomes quite significant for relatively large trades, right? So as a rule of thumb, the price impact which is a loss you know of a trader, you know from the trade, is roughly proportional to the ratio of trade size to the size of the pool, right? So if you want to do a trade which is 1% of the size of the pool, well, you’re going to pay this 1% roughly in terms of price impact, in addition to the pool fee and the guest right? So in practice, you know, in practical terms, you know, large trades are not really admissible, you know, on on decentral exchange, just because they become too expensive. This is also true for centralized changes, right? If you want to take out your 10% of the order book, that’s going to cost you a lot of money as a trade, right? So this idea of concentrated basically said, well, let’s quickly treat it not uniformly, you know, for all exchange rates, because you know, you know, trades that change exchange rates or more exchange rates, quite a lot are not going to happen in reality, right? Let’s concentrate. Trade humidity in the relevant range, right somewhere around the current exchange rate, right? We’re going to support those trades in a really good way, right, with deep liquidity, with the hope that large trades are not going to appear because those large trades are not going to be supported. So that really increased, many cases, the efficiency of liquidity provision by a lot, and improved in the terms of trading, you know, by by a significant amount for traders. And now uniswa is actually coming out with the next version of their protocol, before the fourth version, that is actually going to be quite interesting, because it allows to do many more things. It allows so called hooks. So hooks is basically additional smart contracts attached to the liquidity pool that define certain actions that the pool is going to do before, during or after a trade. Think about a situation, for example, where you know a trade changes the price, the exchange rate between the two assets in such a way that the current consider liquidity is not going to be adequate anymore to support trades, right? So the pool might define reallocation of liquidity in such a way that will support future trades as a result of an existing so before is not really active yet. It’s coming out, I believe this or next month, but this is going to, I believe, spur additional wave of innovation in defi or desks. Let’s go back to virtual swap and what you know we tried to bring to the table, right? So I kind of discussed very briefly the fact that liquidity in on Dex is often is not allocated in an efficient way, right? And this is actually an important point, because this is a big problem that currently, up to this point, actually prevents kind of the access to from from from really achieving a big success, right? Basically, from overtaking centralized exchanges, right? That has not happened yet. The reason is that it is very difficult to provide liquidity, you know, for all necessary trades, right, just because there’s a lot of assets right? Right now, if you go to coin market cap, which is, you know, the biggest aggregator of crypto data, there are 1000s, right, 678, 1000 of different assets, right, that are listed on coin market cap, and there are many more that are not listed. So if think about, you know, trading between one asset, one token, into another. Chances are that, despite the fact that it’s possible to establish any type of liquidity pool, it’s possible to concentrate liquidity. In practice, there are just too many asset combinations, right, for those pools to exist, right? So if there is, you know, 8000 crypto assets, right? You know, if you think about the number of pairs, well, it’s 8000 squared over two. That’s a huge number, right? You’re never going to have, you know, liquidity for, you know, for those trade Now, granted, most of theirs, those potential, theoretical pairs are never traded, right? So you don’t really need liquidity, right? But still, there are a lot of assets which are traded, right, but for which there is no direct liquidity, right, even now, right, with all the available technology, right? Because I know providing liquidity into pool, into the pool is a completed permission that’s connected, right? Anybody can do it, and we can establish a pool. Anybody can add, you know, money to the pool, right? People are only going to do it if it’s worth their while, right? If the returns they’re going to be getting are going to be offsetting the risks that they’re going to take in the day, right? And for many assets, it’s not the case, right? So you know, if there is, you know, some trading expected in a pair of assets. So think you know, whatever chain link against, you know, Matic, right? You know, which is the native token of olivine chain. There are going to be straight some trades like this, but probably not enough to make it worthwhile for liquidity providers to provide sufficient liquidity, right? And so, you know, despite the fact that the theoretical possibility exists in practice, right? People are still going to do two trades, right? They’re going to trade, you know, from chain link to some asset you know, with which you know, the pool of tailor exists, for example, ether or stable coin, USDC, or anything else, right? And then the others trade into the asset that they really want, right? So for the most part, the problem of insufficient liquidity is not solved, right? And it actually cannot really be solved, right, for the reasons we discussed, right? There is just not. There’s too many assets and too too little money in the pool, right? So. So that is basically the problem that, you know, I identified in, I guess, 2021 when I started looking very carefully into this, doing research on decentralized changes, right? It isn’t the problem that they’re trying to solve, right? And that basically what led to to virtual, right? So let me tell you, know, very briefly about our way to address this problem, and, by the way, before the problem, right? Just just the size of the problem, right? So those trades that involve what we call triangular trading, right? So trading, you know, through multiple pools. That’s about 30% of all trades on, you know, most important blockchain, right? Ethereum, Polygon, arbitrary and so forth. Right? About 30% of the trades are of this kind, right? So this is kind of the market that we’re trying to address, right? And, you know, you mentioned initially, kind of smaller coins, right, or smaller assets, right? So this problem is there in smaller assets, right? Because if you want to trade, you know, ether against USDC, you’re going to be fine, right? There’s enough liquidity, enough direct liquidity. That’s not our place, right? Our place is rates that I mentioned, right, which may be smaller asset, right? When I say smaller, it’s basically anything outside of top five, right? So when you go outside of top five or six on a given blockchain, that’s where the problem becomes, becomes acute. So how do we do this, right? So we basically came up with a different architecture, right, different structure of liquidity pools, right? So standard liquidity pools involve two assets. Ours are a little bit more involved. So in addition to the two assets right that we also have, we have so called reserves, right? So think about a pool that is, you know, two main assets, plus you know, some reserves, right? And you know, a good way to think about those preserves initially is basically like, say, deposit boxes that are initially empty, right? So the pool is established in exactly the same way as normal pool, right? So think about a pool of whatever ether and USDC that can accept reserves into those initially empty sale deposit boxes. So let’s say that you want to to buy, you know, ether, right? And to pay with it, with the Matic token, right, with the polygon top. Now, in a normal kind of situation, right, in the normal tax right, you’d have to do those two trades. Right triangle. Virtuous. Of what you can do is you can deposit the asset that you have into the reserve of the pool. Right, ether USDC are going to the to deposit the reserve of Matic polygon into the reserve of, you know, either USDC pool, and you’re going to take from the pool the asset that you want, right, the asset that you need. For example, ether, right? Now, of course, the question is, you know, what is the, what are the terms of trade, right? You know, how much do you need to deposit in order to take even amount of the asset from the pool? Now, you know, this historical trade are defined on purchase of via so called virtual liquidity pools. Right? Virtual liquidity pools are, you know, a result of, basically triangulation, right, of of different pools that exist virtual so they define a pool, sorry, a trading curve, you know, over which the trader can trade, right? Now, this trading curve is not a real trading curve, right? It’s not like, you know, he’s going to deposit the assets in the pool and take some other assets from the pool. This virtual trading basically, is defined by trading into the reserves, right? So you’re going to, you know, deposit your asset to the reserve, and take one of the kind of main, one of the main assets in the for a trader, it doesn’t really matter, right? It’s a seamless experience, right? You as a trader don’t really care whether you trading by reserves or by kind of normal kind of two effort trading, right? What you care about is getting the most, what’s called the mount out, right? The largest amount of the other asset that you want for a given amount of assets that you are trading now, this is not the end of the story, right? So let’s say that you perform this trade, the pool accepted those, those assets into the reserve, right? There is a problem, though, right? The liquidity provider right now is now exposed to the risk of holding some other asset in the pool, and that is not a risk that is desirable, right? So if I provided liquidity into either USDC pool, I’m okay exposing myself to the risk of those two assets, but I might not be. Exposing myself to the risk of others. Now, what do we do? What do we do with it? There are several ways in which we solve this problem. And then after I describe the ways we address this problem, right, I’m going to go to talk a little bit about the advantage of what we’re doing. So first of all, we don’t allow all of the possible assets into into the reserves, right? So every pool comes with a white list of tokens that can go into the reserves, right? Think about, for example, top 100 assets on a given blockchain. So this comes back to your initial point. Right? We solved the problem for smaller assets, not for the smallest ones, because the smallest ones are super risky, right? We don’t want to expose the liquidity provider to this type of risk. But in practical terms, you know, 95% of trading in smaller assets are, you know, it’s taking place in assets you know that are the top 100, right? So, I mean, the other ones are really not that important. Secondly, we basically limit the size of the reserves, right? We basically say that the overall value of all the assets that sit in the reserves, right? And remember, these are assets that are different in the two main assets in the pool, right? So the size of the result reserves overall cannot exceed 2% of the value of the pool. Once it hits 2% the pool basically closes itself to this type of reserve trading, right? And basically limits the amount of reserves, right? So there is some risk, but it’s not very, you know, very big. It’s up to 2% but most importantly, right? The way we, you know this risk is addressed, right? Is by a lever system of exchanging reserves between pools. Right? Think about a scenario where, you know, I have deposited money into ether, USDC pool that now has Matic reserves another pool right is, for example, Matic against ether that has USDC reserves, right, that accumulated the result of some other trade. Okay. Now, whatever this happens, right, those two pools can exchange the reserves between themselves, right, sending Matic to the pool Where it is one of the main assets, and sending USDC into my pool Where it is one of the two main assets. Now this happens without any price impact. This happens without any pool fee, right? It’s just exchange between two pools, just a little bit of gas that needs to be paid. But you know, this is, this is not a large number, usually, and that basically means that every time it’s possible, we kind of try to reduce the number of reserves in all possible pools to the lowest level possible, ideally to zero, right? We don’t want those reserves right. So those reserves are just kind of a place that allows trading, right? We don’t really like them. We’ve done, obviously, tons of simulations at this point. We have real world kind of trading data, those reserves are typically small, right? So, you know, this is not a risk that is that is large in the liquidity providers. But what is that do? It basically eliminates, in many cases, the need for the triangular trading right, and reduces the costs of trading to a single kind of type of cost, right? You still need to pay the pool fee, you still need to pay gas. You still have price impact, but only once, all right, and not multiple times. And so if you think about kind of a more kind of global picture, right, the whole ecosystem of different decentralized exchanges, and there many, there are dozens of Dexs, usually on every blockchain. The way this market is organized is that most often people are going to trade through so called aggregators, right? So think about basically the Expedia right of the dex market, right? Instead of kind of going and buying your air ticket in a particular airline, you’re going to go to Expedia and try to see where it’s cheapest. You know, what is the cheapest? In a way, to go to a particular place, and accurate, there’s a similar thing, right? It basically takes a given trade, it looks up on all the data on different decentralized exchanges, all the pools, you know, all the liquidity, and tries to compute the optimal route for the spring, right? Basically, you know, let’s say you want to swap, you know, $100 worth of stable coin into into it, right? You know, the aggregator is going to go and trade and say, well, $20 are going to be sent to this pool on this decks, and $15 is going to be sent to a different pool in different days, with an objective of maximizing your overall amount out now coming back to virtual spot, since our trading is more efficient, right? Because, you know, we don’t have to pay the multiple costs twice, right, that basically means that a disproportionate, you know, fraction of a trade is going to be sent our way, as opposed to to a. Other kind of to other debts, right? So in a sense, that means that, you know, from the liquidity providers perspective, you know, their liquidity is going to be working over time, right? There’s going to be kind of a bigger kind of bang for the Bucha, right? And that means that, in a sense, every trade carries some fee, proportional fee, the returns to liquidity providers is also going to be larger and kind of the liquidity provision to merge as well. In principle, maybe a better kind of proposition for liquidity providers than providing liquidity on other deaths, right? So that’s kind of the basics of what we do. Gotcha,

Gene Tunny  35:35

okay, geez, there’s a lot, a lot there a few, a few terms I want to go over. So you talk about gas fees. So I remember you defined them. I just just wanted to make sure I heard that right, and I looked it up and checked it is gas. So that’s a new one. I’ll have to have another look at at that. And then you mentioned ERC 20, and that, that means ERC

Evgeny Lyandres  36:01

20 is basically just a technical term for particular crypto assets, right? You know, having certain characteristics, right, that are compatible, you know, with other assets on a given block, right? You know, there’s nothing deep there. It’s just certain conditions that need to be specified, but you need to be kind of fulfilled by an asset to to be classified as ERC 20, right? I don’t want to go deeper into this. It’s just that is not a very kind of interesting part. The gas fee is actually more interesting, right? So, you know, any blockchain right, is basically maintained in decentralized fashion, right? So blockchain has nodes, right? Nodes are basically computers who record, maintain and update the state of the blockchain, right? But those nodes need to be compensated. They’re different and, and, and, you know, those nodes need to agree among themselves about the contents of the blockchain, right? So we need to make sure that blockchain, which is a database, distributed database, you know, is the same across all nodes of the of the block, right? There are multiple ways to achieve this, so called consensus between nodes. You know, of course, you know, everybody heard about proof of work. You know, which is, you know, what Bitcoin uses for proof of state, which is what most other blockchains use at this point. But the point is that, you know, the nodes on on a blockchain, any blockchain, need to be compensated for what they do, right? So you know, you’re not going to kind of run this, you know, Blockchain software for no reason, right? You’re only going to do it if there is something for you and and that’s why, you know, we need to somehow generate some revenue for the for the nodes of the blockchain that maintain it, right? And this revenue typically is generated by those gas fees, which are basically fees attached to, you know, by people who want to perform transactions on a blockchain, right? And those fees, you know, you know, I’m simplifying a lot, but those fees basically are paid by the people making transactions to people who maintain the blockchain. Gotcha, do

Gene Tunny  38:13

you know why it’s called gas? Why is it? I

Evgeny Lyandres  38:16

mean, it’s, it’s like, it’s like, gas in a car, right? That’s more, makes the makes the blockchain go.

Gene Tunny  38:21

Okay, that’s that’s as good as his explanation as any. Is just wondering if there was some particular reason, actually,

Evgeny Lyandres  38:29

in fact, there may be others. This is the one that I heard, and this seems reasonable to me, so I didn’t explore further.

Gene Tunny  38:38

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from House sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  39:13

now back to the show. Okay, so just want to go back to just the what I’ve read about virtue swap, so you get about 50% cost reductions and then 400% higher returns for liquidity providers. So this is what you’re what you’re claiming. Yeah, right, got

Evgeny Lyandres  39:38

it very much depends on the parameters of the, you know, the pool, gotcha, yeah,

Gene Tunny  39:44

it has a TVL of $3 million What do you mean by that? What’s TVL stand for?

Evgeny Lyandres  39:51

Right? So, actually, the number is smaller right now. Some, some rough kind of periods of market. The market is improving right now, so hopefully it’s going to. Bigger, but TBL stands for Total value locked. Total value locked is the amount of liquidity that people provided into the into the protocol, right? So, so you know, any exchange be centralized or decentralized, relies on liquidity, right? And basically assets that some other people have deposited into the into the exchange rate in order to facilitate trading, right? So the bigger the liquidity, the more trades are possible, and the better terms at which trades are possible, right? So, so for every decentralized exchange is striving to increase the liquidity that’s deposited into it,

Gene Tunny  40:47

yeah, gotcha. Okay, so it’s still fairly, I mean, it is a niche product. So you’ve said that you’ve carved out a significant niche, right? Okay, and you’ve partnered with defi leaders like uni Zen, open ocean, odos, lifik, what are those companies doing? What partnerships have you developed?

Evgeny Lyandres  41:09

Right? So most of the names that you mentioned are basically aggregators, right? So we mentioned aggregators is basically the from the starting point of most trades, right, the experience of this office of this market, right? So any decentralized exchange wants to be, wants to eat, to be integrated by by as many aggregators as as possible, right? Because, basically, you know, like an airline, right? The airline wants to be on Expedia. It wants to be on Kayak, it wants to be on Skyscanner, right? Wants to be on every aggregator that people go to to kind of search for for air tickets, right? Any decks wants to be part of, and all aggregators that people go to submit their trades, right? So at this point, we are, in fact, have been. We have been integrated by most of the of the important aggregators. So I’m quite, quite happy about that. And you know, this is not trivial, right? Because integration takes time, right? So you know, the aggregator needs to basically go over the smart contracts of of the decks, right, and make sure they’re compatible with what they’re doing. Right? Our smart contracts are quite different from those of existing or other desks, right? We are not a so called fork of another protocol, right? We just didn’t just take another product code and make some small tweaks to, right? You know, we wrote everything from scratch which make, makes aggregation heavier endeavor, you know, from the or integrations and heavier endeavor from the aggregator sentiment, right? So I’m quite happy that we have been aggregated by by several, well, all basically important aggregators, right? And so that’s where the majority of trade and virtue are coming from, right? So, you know, we have our own website, our own trading app, our own UI, UX. People can go there and trade. Most people do that, you know, otherwise, right? They go to an aggregator, and the aggregator computes, you know, which part of the trade it makes sense to do on versions of, right? And we get, you know, those bits and pieces of trades immediately.

Gene Tunny  43:25

Yeah, gotcha. Okay, that makes sense, yeah. So it sounds like you’ve, you’ve found a real niche there and in the market. And, yeah, I mean, it’s, it all sounds. I mean, I think I was five years too old to have got into crypto, perhaps, but yeah, I really haven’t got into it in a big way, but I have a lot of guests. I’m having, increasingly, having guests come on the show talk about crypto and web three. It’s all, all very, all very fascinating. So it’s something I’ve still got to learn a lot more about. Can I ask you, where do you think all of this is going? Because you mentioned the huge number of coins there are out there. I mean, a lot of these coins. I mean, you have to wonder about the future of them. I mean, where’s, what’s the future of crypto? Where do you think this is all headed? I mean, will crypto become, you know, will people start using it as a currency, as a medium of exchange? Will all of these coins survive? What’s the future look like? What do you see is the future of crypto of yeah, please tell me. I’m fascinated. I’d like to know what the, what’s the, what’s the use case for all of this?

Evgeny Lyandres  44:40

Yes. So then this is a bunch of very loaded question in one. So let me try to kind of, you know, to the extent possible. So, so crypto, obviously is a new industry, right? And up to not too long ago, it was a real kind of wild west, right? So you might remember the time. Time, a few years back, of initial coin offerings, or ICOs, right? Where basically projects were raising money for something that they intended to do in the future, and there were tons of scams in this market. I mean, this market was very far from clean, coming back to the lack of regulation. Right now, ICOs are dead at this point, but the market is still not very well regulated, right? So different countries approach regulation of crypto in very different ways. You know, I’m sure that, you know, with the with the outcome the US election, we’re going to have big changes in the regulation, in the US of the crypto market, to predict in what way, but I’m sure that there’s, I mean, it’s going to be easier to do to the business, you know, in crypto, that I think that’s that’s pretty clear, but regulation is still still not there, right? And so there are several uses in of crypto in general, right? So you mentioned payments, right? So payment is kind of the first thing that the people thought about and that basically, if you read the Bitcoin white paper, right, it basically says that, you know, Bitcoin was supposed to become a medium of exchange, right? For many reasons, it didn’t happen. One big reason is that just the throughput of this, of this system, is very low, right? So you can only do very few Bitcoin transaction in every second, right? So it’s incomparable. Orders of magnitude is smaller than, you know, transaction Visa or MasterCard or suite or whatever. So they didn’t happen. But it doesn’t mean that it’s not possible, right? So, you know, it is definitely possible to transact in crypto. Stable coins are very convenient for it. Central Bank digital currencies that many central banks you know around the world are working on are going to, in principle, replace kind of traditional, traditional money. So that’s, that’s good, that’s what. That’s one kind of use case, clear use case of crypto is used, you know, just for Allah says about this use case, right, even now, right? So, crypto is used a lot in places where it’s hard to do business or make transactions in fiat currencies, right? So think about kind of countries or organizations under sanctions, right? You know, think, think about places with capital controls, right? So crypto is useful, or, you know, is a potential replacement for for fiat money, whether it’s good or bad. I mean, that’s that’s irrelevant. It’s but it’s definitely possible. The second use of crypto is, basically, you know, a as a fuel behind different types of finance applications, right? So pretty much any protocol in decentralized finance, right? So let’s take uniswap as an example. Since we mentioned that before, has its own token, right, its own currency, its own asset that the use that is used for incentivizing people towards a certain behavior, right? So think about a protocol. Well, we do it in virtual right? We basically want to try to influence where the liquidity providers are putting their liquidity right. Because, you know, we have developed, you know, a system of optimization of liquidity, right? And, you know, we think that we know better than a typical liquidity provider where the money is going to be, you know, bring the biggest, you know, benefit about right now, we did not force people to do anything. It’s their money, right? They’re going to put their money where they want to, but we can try to influence them, and the way we influence them, and, you know, many other protocols do it as well, right? It’s basically trying to give them extra rewards for doing certain things, right? In our case, you know, if I want a person or people to, you know, to put their liquidity in a particular place, well, I’m going to say, Well, if you do this, I’m going to give you something extra, right? This extra is going to be the token of my own protocol, right? So, in addition to the fees that people are going to generate, you know, as a result of liquidity provision, they’re also going to get something extra, which is the protocol token, right? So, and you know, protocol tokens, as most, most defi protocols, have their own tokens, right? And you know that is mainly used for for this purpose, and that basically defines kind of the valuation of this token, right? Is derived from the utility of the protocol, right? So uniswap token is very valuable because a lot of people trade via virtue purchase or generates a lot of fees, you know, for the liquidity providers, right? And that’s why uniswap tokens currently worth, you know, several billion dollars. Other tokens are worse less, right? It all kind of depends on, on, on whether and to what extent the protocol gives utility to to its users. Most tokens that are currently traded or, you know, registered on coin Mar. Cap are worthless, if you ask me, right? So, you know, I expect that many of them, the vast majority of them, probably including different mean points, are eventually going to go down to zero, right? So, you know, mean points is a definition of an asset that does not have any, you know, inherent utility, right? It’s, you know, it’s price, basically, is a function of the temporal demand that that exists, right? You know, there is nothing, nothing kind of behind it now. So if you think about the 1000s of assets that are currently, you know, out there in my prediction is most of them are going to go down, to go down to zero. And I don’t think many people are going to argue with that, but I think what’s really important, right? And it’s probably more important than, than the than the use cases that we discussed, is the possibility to to tokenize real world assets, right? So think about a Tesla stock, right? A Tesla stock is currently trading on, I believe, NASDAQ, but it’s trading in one place, okay? And in order to trade, you have to go to a particular exchange, okay, and play by the exchanges rules, right, including be limited to the liquidity on that particular exchange. Now think about a situation where Tesla stock is tokenized, and what it means is is the following, I buy a certain number of Tesla stocks, right? I put it in some custody, right, of the reputable custodian, right? And I issue Tesla tokens, right? Tesla tokens that are compatible with, you know, trading, or, you know, any activity on a blockchain, right? Those tokens are going to be one to one backed by Tesla stocks, you know, sit somewhere in a safe deposit box right now. Those social tokens, you know, can be traded on dexes, okay, they can be traded with all the advantages of the sophisticated kind of trading technologies that we discussed, right? And future technologies that are going to be not to be developed, right? Because this, this market is developing very fast and kind of and progressing very fast, right? If you think this possible, definitely right. What is currently not really possible, right, is this whole issue of custody, right? So regulation, right, is not there yet to, kind of to define, you know, what a sufficient kind of efficiently secured custody is, right, in order to allow this type of activity, right? I know the lawyer, right. I don’t know how the optimal regulation should look like, but imagine for a second that there is regulation that allows and makes this activity relatively easy, right? Once this is possible, the sky is the limit, right? So, so basically, think of any asset, you know, stocks, bonds, real estate, precious metals, you know, energy, anything can be tokenized, right? And this is the point where I think this defy decentralized finance. Markets, including decentralized exchanges, are basically going to explode. Because right now, this market is limited to a very particular, very niche type of assets, which is crypto. Crypto is still, you know, a tiny asset plus relative to stocks and bonds, right? So currently, the market cap of all of crypto is $2.7 trillion if you think about stocks, global stocks, about 100 trillion dollars, slightly more bonds, similar numbers. So, so crypto is small, right? But once you kind of allow trading in other assets, right, stocks, Bond, real estate, right? That could increase the importance of this market, but by at least two orders of banking, right? And so, so this is basically the reason why I think this market is important, right? It’s not because of its importance, right? Now, I mean, it’s not there, right? It’s because of the potential, which, I think is there, right? And potential to kind of revolutionize many of the financial technologies that that we’re familiar with,

Gene Tunny  54:13

yeah? Look, I think that’s a very good answer. No. That’s yeah, I actually see the potential there, particularly if you can have like that can give like you could have people getting tokens here for Australian government bonds, for example, that are typically not there’s no retail Australian government bond offering at the moment, but this is a way that you could get, you could get that exposure With the tokenization. I think that’s yeah. That’s fascinating, yeah. The whole regulation side of things is yeah, that that needs to be sorted out. I know that in Australia, the Treasury is supposed to have been looking at it, but it’s just taking them forever to come up with a regulatory framework. Which is, you. Which is rather disappointing, right? Okay, well, I’ll have to have a, I’ll have to have a closer look at all of that. Yeah, it looks like we’re coming up to time. I mean, yes, lots of fascinating things to talk about. I mean, I’ve got a lot, a lot to learn. There were some really, there’s some really technical concepts in there, and it looks like what you’ve done is a very clever way to to solve this, this problem of these thin markets, to actually make sure there’s enough liquidity there. So I think that’s for these trades that’s very good. Is there anything? Anything else we should cover before we wrap up? Kenny

Evgeny Lyandres  55:42

talked about, kind of the whole market. We talked a little bit about Virtu sock. I do want to mention that kind of this, this financial technology is sort of not the only thing we’re doing right. Another kind of aspect or facet of our productivity is, is basically trying to optimize liquidity allocation, right? Basically trying to make liquidity as useful as possible, right? You know, in the presence of the financial technologies we’ve discussed, right? So, you know, I briefly mentioned this, right? We have this, the system that you know, the fancy word, word for it right now is AI agent, right? It’s basically an AI based system that, you know, take some data from outside and make some decisions. So in our case, it our, our AI agent is called Minerva, and Minerva basically has two, two sides to it, right? So it first takes lots of data, right, concurrent, constantly updated data from, you know, from the markets, and tries to predict the distribution of future trades. Right? For example, Tunny speak, right? And, you know, we want to know right, how many trades are going to be, you know, Bitcoin against USDC, and you know any other pair that you can think of, right? So we build this distribution of expected trades, right? And then, you know, you know, conditional this distribution, we say, well, let’s say that, you know, we have a certain number of of tokens that we can give out to our liquidity providers as an incentive for what they’re doing. Let’s say that our liquidity providers require a certain rate of return on different pools, right? We also have estimates of that. What is the best way to distribute liquidity across pools in order to maximize some sort of objective function, right? And this objective hash function can be either the overall returns liquidity providers or overall volume of trading for versions, or, you know, some combination of the two or more, something else. Okay, so the system basically tells us, you know how to distribute our rewards and our token right to liquidity providers to maximize something. And this basically the combination of the financial technology and this data science, right? Is what brings to the up to 400% increased returns to liquidity provider, right? So it’s not just financial technology, it’s also basically pretty sophisticated, I think optimization that we do to further improve, you know, the what liquidity providers earn,

Gene Tunny  58:28

right? Okay, okay, so, Minerva, I like it. That’s excellent. Oh no, we better wrap up there. Kenny, that’s this buddy for me to absorb already. And I think, yeah, I think your explanation of the potential for for crypto, with tokenization, I think that’s, yeah, I think that’s that’s worth considering. So I’ve got to think about that some more. Again. Thanks so much for your time. It’s great that you could, you could join me and, yeah, really value your insights and and learning, it’s good for me to learn and get exposure to this, and I think it’ll be of great interest to listeners. So again. Afghani, thanks so much for your time. I really appreciate it.

Evgeny Lyandres  59:12

Thank you very much for the kind words and for having me. And yeah, it was a great chat, I

Gene Tunny  59:16

think, very good. Thanks. Evgeny, all right.

Evgeny Lyandres  59:19

Thank you very much,

Gene Tunny  59:22

righto. Thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explored.com or a voicemail via speak pipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested. About it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you, then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week. You.

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Podcast episode

The Future of VC: Blockchain, Web3, and Emerging Markets w/ Qin En Looi, Partner, Saison Capital – EP256

Qin En Looi, a partner at Saison Capital, discusses the venture capital landscape, particularly in emerging markets like Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America. Saison Capital, backed by Credit Saison, focuses on early-stage investments and has $150 million in assets under management. The firm has seen three exits and emphasizes the potential of web3 and decentralized finance (DeFi). Looi highlights the efficiency and cost advantages of DeFi, citing examples like Thala, a decentralized currency exchange, and Helix, which tokenizes private credit. He also notes the geopolitical implications, such as near-shoring to Mexico, and the positive impact of the recent Fed rate cut on private investments. NB This episode contains general information and should not be considered financial or investment advice. 

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored.

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Apple Podcast and Spotify.

About Qin En Looi, Partner at Saison Capital

Qin En Looi is a seasoned venture capitalist with a wealth of experience in fintech, B2B commerce, and web3 startups. At Saison Capital, he leads pre-seed and seed investments and advises multiple Southeast Asia-based web3 startups. His previous roles include co-founding Glints, the leading talent ecosystem in Southeast Asia, and earning recognition from Forbes 30 Under 30. Qin En is also the creator and host of the successful podcast “Parents in Tech.”

Timestamps for EP256

  • Introduction (0:00)
  • Venture Capital Terminology and Investment Strategy (3:19)
  • Evolution of Venture Capital and web3 (5:49)
  • Qin En Looi’s Journey into Venture Capital (9:56)
  • Investment Focus on web3 and Decentralized Finance (12:29)
  • Helix and the Future of Private Credit (20:02)
  • Geographic Expansion and Global Opportunities (26:34)
  • Concerns About Geopolitical and Economic Tensions (33:59)
  • Impact of Fed Rate Cuts on Private Investments (36:40)
  • Final Thoughts and Future Outlook (39:27)

Takeaways

  1. web3 Opportunities in Emerging Markets: Southeast Asia and Latin America are ripe for blockchain and decentralized finance innovations, with venture capitalists looking to capitalize on these growing markets.
  2. Blockchain and Financial Inclusion: Qin En argues Blockchain technology offers faster and more efficient financial services, helping to increase financial inclusion in underserved regions.
  3. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) as a Game Changer: Qin En argues DeFi platforms such as decentralized exchanges are transforming traditional financial models by enabling permissionless, trustless transactions.
  4. Private Credit on Blockchain: According to Qin En, tokenizing real-world assets like private credit offers new ways to reduce costs and increase liquidity, opening up more investment opportunities.
  5. Geopolitical Risks and Global Expansion: VC firms like Saison Capital are navigating geopolitical tensions by expanding into new markets such as Mexico, taking advantage of nearshoring trends.

Links relevant to the conversation

Saison Capital: https://www.saisoncapital.com/ 

Information on United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) which replaced NAFTA:

https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement

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Transcript: The Future of VC: Blockchain, Web3, and Emerging Markets w/ Qin En Looi, Partner, Saison Capital – EP256

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Qin En Looi  00:03

No one knows how things could be, right? I think there’s just so much uncertainty at the end of the day. I think our role is to understand what is happening, to be able to respond to it quickly, where we can and for the rest part, you know, just just sort of like, accept that this is sort of an environment that we’re in.

Gene Tunny  00:29

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host, Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode. Please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello and welcome to the show. This episode, I’m joined by chin N Louis, a partner at Saison capital, an early stage venture capital fund based in Singapore. Chin en shares some great insights into venture capital investing, particularly the opportunities in emerging markets like Southeast Asia, India and Latin America. He discusses the focus that Sazon capital has on web three and decentralized finance, and he argues that blockchain technology can enable faster, more efficient financial services and increase financial inclusion. Righto, thanks to Lumo coffee for sponsoring this episode. This grade one organic specialty coffee from the highlands of Peru is jam packed full of healthy antioxidants. There’s a 10% discount for economics explored listeners. Details are in the show notes. Without further ado, let’s dive into the episode. I hope you enjoy it. Hinan, welcome to the program.

Qin En Looi  01:56

Thank you for having me. Oh, it’s

Gene Tunny  01:58

very good. And yeah, keen to chat about your your VC firm, so you’re based in Singapore, and, yeah, doing all sorts of interesting things. Can you just tell us a bit about the business, please?

Qin En Looi  02:10

Absolutely. So I’m a partner at Saison capital. We are early stage venture capital fund that is backed by a large Japanese traditional finance institution called credit. Saison, I’m very proud that we are one of the few early stage funds that is built for speed, and also one of the few early venture funds that can directly invest in digital and crypto assets.

Gene Tunny  02:31

Gotcha, so you mentioned you’re backed by a Japanese financial institution, so it’s providing you with the capital in to invest. Is that what you mean? Do you have other investors or clients?

Qin En Looi  02:44

Exactly? It’s only a single LT fund, so I only have one LP to report to, and sort of one shareholder. And that gives us a lot of flexibility that a typical fund would not be able to I’ll give a specific example. So for season capital, we are not just active direct investors, direct in the sense that we invest in startups, but we also are able to invest in other early stage venture funds. To date, we have done 1818, venture capital fund investments that really helps us to build an understanding globally of what the landscape, the investment landscape is shaping up to be, right?

Gene Tunny  03:21

Got you. So there’s some terminology I want to get make sure I understand. So LP, that stands for limited partner. Is that right? Yes.

Qin En Looi  03:30

And LP is the individual or the shareholder who contributes capital to a venture fund. So at the end of the day, most venture capital funds do not manage their own money, like say, a family office. Venture capital fund is essentially an asset manager in the very particular asset class. So a LP, a limited partner is who provides, is the individual institution that provides capital for the venture funds,

Gene Tunny  03:58

gotcha, and there are also general partners. Is that correct? The GPS?

Qin En Looi  04:04

Yes. So GPS, are people like myself who run the fund, gotcha, gotcha.

Gene Tunny  04:09

And do you disclose your assets under management, or how much you you invest on behalf of clients? Or is that? I mean, if that’s confidential, that’s fine. I was just interested in the scale of of your operation? Yeah,

Qin En Looi  04:21

absolutely. So we have 150 million US dollars assets under management. But what we like to say is that this is also a evergreen Fund, in the sense that every year we can always request for more budget from our parent company if needed. Because, once again, we are not set up like the typical venture fund where, you know, you go out, you raise, it’s a closed end fund, right, whereas ours is a bit more of an open ended Fund, which means that we can always just take on additional capital from our parent company,

Gene Tunny  04:50

yeah, gotcha right. And with, with venture capital, I mean, it’s a tough game, isn’t it, because you. Like, I’ve listened to Tim Ferriss talk about this on his show. And, I mean, essentially, you know that a lot of the things you’re investing in not necessarily get the ROI, I mean, the you know, because a lot of them, it’s experimental, or it’s very novel, but you’re relying on just one of them to to to hit it big, and, you know, go to the IPO, or to have the to have the buyout, and then you get that outsized return. Is that essentially the the VC strategy is that the top of is that your strategy? Or how do you think about the your investment strategy?

Qin En Looi  05:37

Yeah, I mean, Gene, what you said is exactly sort of the textbook definition how venture has been over the past few decades. But to be honest, I think we are today at an inflection point right where I feel like venture capital really has to evolve, and we have to find new ways to create value. So exactly to a point the old ways, it’s making a whole bunch of investments, expecting most of them to fail, but those that succeed deliver exceedingly like we call those home runs, right? They deliver incredible, phenomenal returns that more than make up for it. And usually those exits come in the form of, like you said, IPOs or trade sales. That model started in the US. It has, it has and still works in the US. But I think what very quickly people are realizing is that in many parts of the world, especially in the parts that we operate in, in Southeast Asia, in India, in Latin America, that’s starting to pose a challenge, primarily because these IPO, these MNA routes, are not as deep, right in terms as compared to the US. In the US there’s the rich capital markets. There are many corporations with large war chests that can deliver those kind of returns, but hey, you don’t find many of that over here, right? Some of the largest corporations across these markets are very traditional companies that probably don’t appreciate the tech multiple and also the same thing we see on public markets, some of the largest companies, largest tech companies that went public coming out of Southeast Asia, their outcomes are not as desirable. So I think really where we are today, it’s a very interesting position where dpi, which is basically the money that’s actually returned to LPs, the money that’s actually returned from venture funds to to their investors, is at an all time low, and many people are sort of questioning the value of this asset, plus, and we really hope to be part of the conversation that reinvents what that looks like.

Gene Tunny  07:36

Gotcha, did you say dpi, is that dividends paid to investors? Yes, that’s right. Okay. Oh, good. That makes sense, right? And where are you in your, in your evolution as a as a fund or as an in VC? Is it early days? Have you had any exits of any of your the companies you’ve invested in? Has there been an exit? Where are you in that sort of journey?

Qin En Looi  08:00

Yeah, we’re still relatively early as a fund, having started just investing in 2020 but the good news is that we have already seen exits, right? We, in fact, we are three exits that have happened, that have delivered great returns for us. But look, I think for many of our portfolio, it’s still the early days, especially because we often invest before the Series A round. So generally we’re considered earlier stage investors. And you know, the cycles of these take more than 10 years. But I think you know what, what excites us? It’s really where, sort of the broader web three and digital asset industry comes in. Because essentially, we see that space as accelerating liquidity and return timelines, right? You can see what you want about the crypto, about the web three space. You know, a lot of people love it, a lot of people, even more people hate it. But what is undeniable is the ability to generate liquidity for investors at unparalleled speeds. Right? Exactly to your question around, have we seen exits? Have we seen returns? Those three exits that we have in the in the non web three space are more exceptions, rather than the norm, whereas in the web three space, generally, we see exits at, you know, between year three to year five of the company’s life cycle. So practically, as investors, our approach to to approaching the web three, the digital asset investment space, it really comes driven from, you know, there is opportunity there, but the more importantly, there’s also liquidity. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  09:26

yeah. Okay. Well, I’ll ask you about that in a moment, just before we get there, I think some, you know, many listeners would be interested in your story. How did you get into VC in the first place? Because it seems just you’re relatively young, and you know, obviously doing very well. So what’s your story? I’d be interested.

Qin En Looi  09:45

Thank you. To be honest, I would never imagine myself being a being a VC, but my story started 11 years ago. I was the first generation of venture backed founders in Southeast Asia. I often joke with. The Founders I work with now, don’t talk to me about valuations, because I did my startups seed valuation and post money valuation at $1.5 million today, seed rounds are $1.5 million but the valuation I raised 1.5 million right? So 11 years ago, together with two other co founders. We co founded glins, which today is the largest recruitment platform in Southeast Asia, the largest tech enabled recruitment platform. The company today is a series D company. There’s very small, $80 million and I was with the company for the first five years. So really, sort of going through that zero to one journey, expanding out of Singapore to the Southeast Asia region was a phenomenal journey. Made plenty of mistakes, but also took away plenty of lessons. After building glints, I went off to BCG, both on the classic consulting side, but more interestingly on the venture building side. So that was when in 2020 2021, when BCG, digital ventures today is called BCG X was really supporting corporates to build startups. Did that for almost three years before Cezanne reached out and say, Hey, do you want to cross the table and become an investor? I thought, why not? Why not step back into the startup ecosystem, albeit in a different role? And it has been a great journey since I remember joining in 2021 right at the peak of the bull market, both in the web to web three sense when due to getting done, it’s insane, right? I remember those days when you you meet a founder for the first time, like over or over call like this, and they tell you, Look, we need you to commit by tomorrow. And so those are the crazy days. And of course, we rode the wave down. But, you know, with with the current environment we’re in, starting to see a bit of recovery, overall, excited, right? And I think I count myself fortunate to sort of see a bit of a cycle, because that really helps me to shape my perspectives.

Gene Tunny  11:57

Yeah, absolutely, wow. It’s a good yeah, good story, yeah, I’ll have to look up glints. Did you say it is B, L, i n t, s, that’s right. Great. You said Southeast Asia. So you’re talking about Manila and Jakarta, like Indonesia, Philippines, right? Yes, yes.

Qin En Looi  12:14

Indonesia remains our largest market, but we also have presence across Philippines, Malaysia, and even, actually, a bit of East Asia, so Taiwan and Hong Kong too,

Gene Tunny  12:24

yeah. What I’ve noticed about Indonesia, when I’ve spent some time there and done some work over there, is just, they’re very good with the apps, like they had, I remember they had, yeah, but like, 10 years ago, they seem to be even more advanced than, you know, further along in their, you know, relationship with apps and, you know, using, was it go Jek or something? I’m trying to, yeah, I thought, and you could get a scooter and they deliver stuff, although that was really great. So they seem to be more savvy than some of us here in Australia. So that was, that’s great, okay, and you mentioned web three and exits from there, and you talked about the ability for it to generate liquidity. What sort of web three? What broadly are we talking about with web three? What types of businesses have you invested in, and what ones were exited? Or was there an exit?

Qin En Looi  13:16

Yeah, you know, when we started the web three journey, we wanted to take on the approach where we don’t know what we don’t know. So the right way to do it is to really learn as much as possible. We ended up investing, and we started out as very sector agnostic, investing, everything from the infrastructure you’re talking about, wallets, tooling to, of course, the applications. We did games, we did decentralized finance, we did real world assets. So we did, in short, a whole bunch of stuff. Now, kind of after about one and one or two years into that journey, we started to to figure out what our thesis was, and our thesis became the focusing on finance applications, on web three, broadly, they can be divided into two categories, decentralized finance, as well as real world assets or tokenized assets. So these are two, even though both are sort of finance related, both couldn’t be further apart. Decentralized finance, as the name suggests, is the idea where everything is permissionless, everything is trustless, everything is anonymous, whereas real world assets is really about bringing some of these real financial assets onto the blockchain, serving very different audiences, but I think both have created great investment opportunities for us. Gotcha. And

Gene Tunny  14:34

can you give us an example of both the defi and the tokenized assets, just so we can understand what, yeah, what are you talking about? Please, absolutely.

Qin En Looi  14:44

So, for example, one of the things that we invested in defi is what we call decentralized exchanges. Simply put, it’s, it’s a money changer business, right? Imagine today you interact with a blockchain ecosystem, and you want to, you know, get some. Currency, or in this case, get some tokens to spend, whether on products or services. You need to swap, right? It’s just that. How? Let’s say, when I go to Malaysia, I go to the US, I cannot just use my Singapore dollars. I need to swap to the native currency. So decentralized exchanges essentially provides a way for you to swap, or basically the money changer business. But what’s really interesting is not just from a customer point of view, say me swapping my Singapore dollars to US dollars, but actually the ability for you and I to both also be the money changer, right? And all of this is facilitated by the blockchain, by the smart contracts. So let’s say today I have two pools of capital, two pools of tokens, two pools of currency, let’s say Singapore dollars and US dollars. In the web, two world, I need a license to be a money changer, right? Otherwise I could go to jail. But decentralized finance works such that I can without asking anyone for permission, without anyone knowing who I am, I can deposit both my Singapore and my US dollars, the equivalent in tokens, of course, and essentially earn fees becoming a money changer, right? So I think that’s really sort of one of the cool and interesting things about decentralized finance. It really lowers the barrier to a lot of these, these applications and these use cases. So one of the more successful ones that we have done is called Tala. It’s T, H, A, L, E, it’s a decentralized exchange on one of the faster growing blockchains called Aptos apt us, right? So, you know, really sort of figuring out, where are the different each blockchain is almost like a new country we try to invest in, almost like the infrastructure of each of these new countries, right? For example, this new country coming out, you want to be investing in the airports, the railroads. That’s essentially what we have done, and that’s what we see decentralized finance as an example. Now, in the real world asset, that’s something that’s a bit more interesting, I think, something that’s a lot more relatable. We’ve invested in companies that essentially use the blockchain to reduce costs and increase access. Right? One of those companies is helix, H, E, L, i, x. They come from a very strong financial background, having dispersed more than 400 million US dollars worth of private credit. To date, most of this business remains in Southeast Asia. So the question is, how can we offer Southeast Asia credit opportunities to the world, right? And what they’re really doing is they’re using the blockchain to increase inclusion, to reduce the cost of distribution, and they have done that very successfully. And we’re super excited to back there.

Gene Tunny  17:33

Gotcha Okay, I want to ask follow ups on both of those. So both, yeah, really compelling examples with the defi, with parla Taylor, T, H, A, L, E, Tala Gotcha. Okay. How does it compare in terms of efficiency, in terms of cost to the users, relative to traditional methods, absolutely.

Qin En Looi  18:03

So I think that’s one of the things, right? Aptos, as with many other blockchains out there, are, like the modern blockchains that make it really, really cheap. We are talking about a fraction of a cent to do any transaction on the blockchain. So really, that’s one. Secondly, you have instant settlement, which I think is insane, right? Today I saw a stat. I saw a study that says, on average, it takes 18 hours to move us dollars through the SWIFT network, which is insane, because that’s pretty much the time of the longest flight from Singapore to New York. So you’d be better off putting the money, the cash, on the plane and flying it over. People call it crazy, but that’s that’s how long it genuinely takes to move fiat money today, as compared to, for example, Tala apton. So broadly, many of these, what we call high throughput blockchains, where settlement is less than one second, right at the cost that is a fraction of a cent is like point that’s like, you need to put five zeros behind the decimal point. And that’s, that’s the cost. So I think really that’s that’s some of the speed and efficiency advantages, but I think more than that is also the idea of it’s trustless, right? What I mean by that is that the blockchain, it’s public, and it’s immutable. Once you do a transaction, it cannot be reversed. And there gives a lot of sense of security that the traditional world does not have today. If I open up my Robin Hood, I open my bank app, it says I have, let’s say, $5,000 I don’t really own that 5000 right? It’s actually an IOU from the bank telling me that if I want to withdraw $5,000 they would pay it back to me. We saw what happened last year with Silicon Valley Bank. Clearly, you know, these centralized institutions do fail sometimes, yeah? And so that’s really sort of the benefit of decentralized finance, yeah,

Gene Tunny  19:47

gotcha. Okay, I might be getting confused between the different different companies. So you mentioned there’s a currency exchange, yeah? So that that’s Tala. Is it? Tela, exactly, and what’s, what’s helix again, sorry, Jan, I just forgot. Sure.

Qin En Looi  20:05

No problem. Helix is bringing Southeast Asia private credit onto the blockchain. Ah, gotcha,

Gene Tunny  20:10

right, private credit onto the blockchain. Okay, and you mentioned you were expanding. You’re making it more inclusive, and just interested in more about it, like who’s What do you mean by private credit? You mean companies with spare cash or high net worth individuals who are willing to lend that money out. Is that correct? Yes, okay, yes, exactly.

Qin En Looi  20:32

So private credit, it’s a simple model of today. You are high net worth individual, or you are a company you you want to generate yield that is above the risk free rate, but not take too much risk, right? So private credit opportunities generate generally anywhere from 10 to, let’s say, 15% APY, not the best, but it’s a lot safer, right? Than, let’s say public equities out there. So, so the model private credit, it’s essentially debt and lending, right? You lend to other companies. And, of course, you, you, you are senior in terms of the the repayment stack. So should anything go wrong? You get paid back first, as compared to, let’s say, the equity shareholders, yeah,

Gene Tunny  21:14

yeah, gotcha. Okay. And so helix, what it what does it do? It matches the the the lenders, with the borrowers, is that what’s going on that

Qin En Looi  21:24

and what they’re doing, it’s a few things, right? I think, first and foremost, often, what creates a lot of fees, it’s the fund administration, right? You need different parties, different different people, different vendors, to come on board, to attest to, to do many things, to audit and all of that. What helix is doing is, by bringing a lot of these processes on the blockchain, you can actually save a lot of that middleman costs, and these savings get passed on to your ad investors. So firstly, what helix is doing, it’s at least on the back end, reducing the costs of investment. That’s one. Now, the second thing that they’re doing is exactly like you mentioned, they’re bringing it onto the blockchain so that the current, you know, there’s this 100 and $20 billion worth of stable coins on the blockchain today, right? Many of them are sitting idle. They are not generating any you so what helix is doing is bringing these 10 to 15% yield that is has been proven. There’s a track record. It’s regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and he has a $400 million track record with zero defaults. All of these benefits of such this particular financial product, they are bringing it onto the blockchain, so that if today you are a stable coin holder, you can directly access and invest in this opportunity.

Gene Tunny  22:48

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  23:23

Now, back to the show. So you mentioned I’ll have to look this up. So you said $400,000,000.00 defaults, exactly. I mean, this is immediately. I’m sort of asking, just thinking, how is that even possible? How can you have zero defaults? What’s what’s going on here? I mean, what’s the how do you ensure the people who borrow the money have an ability to pay it back? Is there? Is it fully collateralized? Is it? I mean, what’s what’s going on here? Yeah,

Qin En Looi  23:57

absolutely. I think first, first things, first for us as not Saison capital, but our parent company, credit Saison, our primary business is in lending. So we understand risk. We understand all these factors very well. The Golden principle lending, it’s any fool with money, can lend it out. The hardest part is always collecting it back. So to answer your question, yes, in fact, the way helix does it is through multiple layers of security. For example, helix does not lend directly to consumers. It does not directly lend to the small and medium companies. Instead, they lend to fintechs, and these fintechs do the lending to consumers or SMEs. So what it means is, yes, there’s a middleman, but this middleman also takes first loss responsibility. So today, helix, let’s say, lends to FinTech company, a FinTech company, a lens it out. Of course, there are always losses and all of that, but helix will often sit senior, which means, let’s say the first 20, 30% of. Of let’s say the pool is a million dollars for for the sake of argument, the first 200 to 300k of that pool is actually contributed by the company itself, the FinTech itself, the what we call the originator, right? And this is what we call the junior tranche. So if there’s any losses, it comes from the junior tranche. Now where helix sits, it’s on the senior trench. It sits above that. So essentially, there’s a way to do it, and if you do enough due diligence and you structure it properly, there are ways such that the senior guys enjoy a youth that and enjoy no losses, no defaults. Of course, the bulk of the returns comes in June, right? You’re talking in junior. You’re talking about a lot higher returns. You’re talking about 2030 could sometimes even reach 40% yield. But of course, higher risk, higher reward, and the junior piece is usually taken by the companies itself to prevent moral hazard. So where helix comes in is offer senior secured capital, and usually there’s a there’s quite a generous buffer below them the interest, zero defaults, right?

Gene Tunny  26:02

Okay, yeah. I mean, I don’t mean to be skeptical, but I always, you know, just the economist in me. I guess economists are naturally skeptical of this sort of thing, and they go to too good to be true. And just thinking about, yeah, what’s the I mean, I because I was in the treasury here in Australia during the financial crisis, and yeah, I just remember, yeah. You just, you just know how things can go wrong. Everything sort of collapses at once. So just sort of naturally, yeah, naturally, a bit, a bit skeptical, but yeah, it sounds fascinating. I have to look more into it. It’s, yeah, it’s incredibly amount of innovation that is occurring out there, and you seem to be at the forefront of it. Where are these companies that you’re investing in located? I mean, are they in Southeast Asia, or are they in the States or Europe? Where are they? Yeah,

Qin En Looi  26:56

I would say about half in Asia and half in Western markets. Western markets heavily being concentrated in the US. That’s one of the things that we love about web three, right? Everything is sort of so global. Really, anyone from anywhere can can build successful companies. Some of the largest companies in the space are also built entirely remote and distributed teams. So yeah, we take a very global approach. I travel around a lot. As a result, I make a trip to the US at least twice every year to make sure that we stay on the pulse. But that is also actually where investing in other early venture funds helps, right? Because we are LPs, we are investors in those funds. We work very closely with those GPS with those venture capitalists to expand our due flow and our network access. Gotcha.

Gene Tunny  27:43

Do you have any investments in Australia? Do you are there

27:52

any? Yeah,

Gene Tunny  27:53

I’m interested, because I think things have started improving here. I mean, for years, the view was there really wasn’t, there wasn’t a lot of opportunities for startups you had to go to over the Silicon Valley. And so that’s why there was a colleague of mine at Treasury, Anthony Goldbloom, who he, I guess he got an angel investor here to help him out, but then he had to go and, you know, raise money over in Silicon Valley, and you get work with some great people there, and they ended up selling that company, Kaggle, to Google. So he did really well. But yeah, I mean, that’s, I always remember he had, you know, he essentially had to go over there to get things moving. I just wondered, to what extent, you know, now, how things have evolved. And because there are a lot of people here, they’re more angel investors, more people willing to take a chance on startups. So, yeah, I was just wondering if you had any, if you hadn’t in any investments in Australia, but yeah, that’s fine, yeah, if you, if you, hopefully, you’ll find some, some good ones, right? Oh, so we’ve talked about web three. Are there any other areas of interest, any other I don’t know what do you call them, thematics or verticals that you’re that you’re investing in? Yeah,

Qin En Looi  29:14

I mean the planning. But maybe I can share the biggest one outside of web three. It’s actually our geographic expansion into Latin so 18 months ago, our parent company opened up offices in Sao, Paulo, Brazil and also Mexico City. I think we’re super excited about the opportunity to create more awareness about Latin America, traditionally, especially for folks in Southeast Asia and Australia, it has been a really long and far journey, right? It’s we’re separated by more than 30 hours of flight, one that I took not too long ago and will be taking again next month. But look, I think for us, we see massive opportunities in Latin America. Brazil’s FinTech ecosystem is truly, I would say, cutting edge. The Central Bank was number one central bank. In the world. They are probably the first that would launch blockchain in the financial industry at scale. So I think really sort of for us as not just web three, but I would say broadly FinTech investors, we are spending a lot of time and attention in Latin America,

Gene Tunny  30:18

right? Okay, that’s interesting. I like to look more into that. Yeah, that’s a hot tip, I think, if you’re, if you’re seeing those opportunities there, and I mean, that could help their general economic development and catch up to to the the more, you know, the more advanced economies. I mean, I guess the Yeah, because I think yeah, they generally do need to do a bit of, a bit of catch up to the the advanced Western economies. So that’s that’s really fascinating. I have to, have to look more into that. Okay, Jen, this has been a fascinating conversation. Yeah, I’ve learned a lot of it’s a sort of conversation I have, and then I think, Oh, gee, I’m gonna have to go away and do hours of research on this, lots of really cutting edge stuff. What’s I might just final question about the whole sort of geopolitical and an economic, geo economic, I suppose, situation, to what extent are you? Are you concerned about the broader trends or the developments in the world? I mean, i It seems that we’re, you know, at one of the riskiest sort of times in in world history, for a long time, since probably the early 80s, really, if you think about the probability of a major global conflict, you know, is that, is that something you think about as, as Vc investors, or you just try and do that, you know, you just sort of, oh, put that to the side. We’ll just do the best we can. I mean, how are you thinking about the global situation? Yeah,

Qin En Looi  31:54

no, no, it remains super important, because at the end of the day we, I mean, venture, it’s a very small asset class in a broader world of the whole economy, right? And I think the way we see it, it’s, you know, we have to see where the tide is turning. We have to see where the wind is blowing in order to know what’s next. I think you’re right, right? All these tensions, all these geopolitical issues, are creating a lot of risks. I think some we just have to accept, some we have we can mitigate, and some we can even turn into opportunities. For example, I mean, just going back to the Latin America expansion, right? I mean, Brazil was obvious choice. It’s the largest country in Latin massive FinTech ecosystem. So it’s almost like a no brainer. The question is, why Mexico? Right? Mexico, it’s not, not nowhere close to to that, but actually, sort of, our decision to invest in Mexico heavily also actually came from, a result from this geopolitical tensions right in the past, China, Asia, is a huge sort of manufacturing and and and sort of production place for Western countries, especially the US, but we’re seeing a reversal of the trend because of these tensions to what we call near shoring right. So a lot of these key production is moving to Mexico, which, in turn, is kind of stimulating the whole sort of country, the whole economy. And hence, that’s why we’re there. So I think, I mean, that’s just one very, you know, small and perhaps example, but it just shows that, yes, it matters. I think to a large extent, a lot of these are risks that we just need to be on the lookout for. There’s not much we can do about it, but that presents opportunities. We won’t hesitate to go after it. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  33:34

it’s good point about Mexico. So Mexico, I’m trying to remember the name of the trade relationship that has with the US and Canada. It used to be called NAFTA, but they read, Trump renegotiated, I think, and got a new name. I have to put it in the show notes, but I thought that was a good point. I should ask. I mean, what about China? I mean, this is something that is, you know, I ask a lot of guests about this now, because where Australia is so heavily, well, China’s a major our major trading partner, I suppose, in terms regarding our exports of our commodities, it’s just extraordinary. And there’s the growing tension, it seems that, you know, a lot of people in the United States are concerned about policy under Xi Jinping. They’re concerned about growing, you know, China’s sort of ambitions for Taiwan. And, you know, there’s this, this growing. This is view that seems to be that the Americans appear to have, that there were in this strategic conflict. And so we’ve sort of shifted from it’s, you know, China’s, uh, entry into the global economy is amazing. And this the whole sort of globalization thesis. We’re moving away from that, and it’s more sort of decoupling now. So I’m just wondering how you think about that. What are you seeing regarding the, you know, this whole sort of issue of the US, China tension? You have any thoughts on that? Yeah,

Qin En Looi  35:01

I think at a high level, look, I don’t think this conflict is going to get resolved anytime soon, right? There clearly is two superpowers, and they sort of always want to one up each other. We’re already seeing it at various levels, right? I think, sort of the way I think about it, it’s sort of the way Singapore has been playing it, which is increasingly difficult, but you know, I think so far, Singapore has done a great job, which is to remain neutral, right, to be friendly, I think. And it’s not just on that political level, but even, I think for us as a venture asset class, at the end of the day, I think we make the most noise as compared to many other asset classes, but we are very small, right? So I think it’s important to to understand the world, the circumstances that we sit in, and try, I would say, try not to take sides, right? Because you don’t want to end up on the wrong side of the equation. No one knows how things could be, right? I think there’s just so much uncertainty at the end of the day. I think our role is to understand what is happening, to be able to respond to it quickly, where we can, and for the rest part, you know, just just sort of like, accept that this is sort of an environment that we’re in. So yeah, I think that’s sort of that sort of broadly my take on it, to remain neutral as much as possible,

Gene Tunny  36:18

right, right, fair enough. Shannon, it’s been a Yeah, fascinating conversation. Any final thoughts before we wrap up? Anything you think you know is worth talking about as at 21st of September, 2024 any anything on your mind, anything you’re you’re concerned about, anything you’re excited about that we haven’t touched on?

Qin En Looi  36:38

Yeah, no, I think you know, with sort of the Fed announcing the 50 basis points rate cut just two days ago. Look, I think that, hopefully that the tide has turned. I think especially for private investment classes, the private credit, private equity, venture capital. I think this is much needed news and optimism for us, because even though the public markets have somewhat picked up a little since last year, the private markets have remained relatively challenging. So to all the founders and also to all the investors out there who are operating this space, I would say, get you know, remain optimistic, remain encouraged. We can look forward to better days in the very near future,

Gene Tunny  37:17

right? Oh, okay, could you just expand on that? I’m interested in that. So how do you see it as a as affecting the firms, the startups, the venture funds? How do you see that, that 50 basis point cut? I mean, I’ve got a sense of how it will and I’ve got my own views, but yeah, just if you can expand on that, how you see it as as beneficial? Please.

Qin En Looi  37:39

Yeah, yeah. Look, I think in a, I mean, fast forward back to when it was zero interest, right? I think capital was cheap. A lot of capital flowed into these private classes. What has happened, whereas with sort of the bear market, is essentially, firstly, the cost of capital became a lot more expensive, and more importantly, the risk free rate increased, whereas the returns on these private classes have went down. So it became a point where many investors, many large institutional investors, have figured out that, firstly, they are over allocated in private assets, right? They are way over allocated. That’s one. Secondly, the risk return profile just doesn’t seem to add up, right? You’d rather do something that’s a lot more liquid, something, let’s say, in the public equities or even in fixed income, right, where the yield, the risk reward is a lot more attractive than these private classes. So what has happened as a result over the past two, three years is basically a dear, absolute sort of, I wouldn’t even say decline, a crash in available funding to for the LPS have towards venture capital, especially, right? And so this has a trickle effect when LPS don’t give money to VCs, VCs don’t give money to founders, and then startups unable to grow. So I think, sort of, with this shift, with with the rate cuts, at least it gives a bit more optimism. It won’t solve the problem entirely, right, but at least it gives some optimism to money coming back in to these private asset classes.

Gene Tunny  39:12

Very good, okay? Thank you. Jay Powell, very good. And Chennai, thanks so much. This has been terrific. You’ve given us so much great information and so many amazing insights. And yeah, all the all the best with your investments in the coming years. And yeah, hopefully I’ve got a chance to catch up with you again. This has been terrific. Likewise. Thanks a lot. Jean. Okay, thanks. Janine, righto, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main. Ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you, then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week. You

Obsidian  40:23

thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode for more content like this, or to begin your own podcasting journey, head on over to obsidian-productions.com you.

Credits

Thanks to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms.

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Podcast episode

Balancing Needs & Wants: Chris Ball, Hoxton Wealth, on Global Wealth Management in an Uncertain World – EP255

Chris Ball, CEO of Hoxton Wealth, discusses the company’s focus on wealth management for internationally mobile individuals, particularly in Dubai. Hoxton Wealth, with offices globally, offers fee-based services to high net worth and mass affluent clients, emphasizing comprehensive financial planning. Ball highlights the use of AI for administrative tasks and the challenges of property investing in the current political climate. He also addresses the debate on retirement income withdrawal rates, advocating for a balanced approach between needs and wants. Ball mentions the impact of geopolitical risks and economic trends on their business and the importance of risk-tailored investment strategies. NB This episode contains general information and should not be considered financial or investment advice. 

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for Gene, please email him at contact@economicsexplored.com  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Apple Podcast and Spotify.

Timestamps for EP255

  • Introduction (0:00)
  • Hoxton Wealth’s Services and Client Base (4:59)
  • Challenges in Property Investing and Political Climate (5:14)
  • Client Profiles and Financial Planning (5:28)
  • Investment Strategies and Risk Management (14:43)
  • Cryptocurrency and Geopolitical Risks (20:35)
  • Economic and Demographic Trends (23:59)
  • AI in Wealth Management (31:58)
  • Technology and Client Communication (34:37)
  • Final Thoughts and Contact Information (35:44)

Takeaways

  1. The complexity of Global Wealth Management: Managing assets across multiple jurisdictions requires expertise in different tax regimes and regulatory environments, especially for high-net-worth individuals and ex-pats.
  2. AI’s Role in Financial Planning: While AI may not replace human financial advisors, it helps streamline administrative tasks, reduce costs, improve efficiency, and allow advisors to serve more clients.
  3. Property Investment Challenges: Rising interest rates and increasing regulation make property investments less attractive, especially for those looking for passive income in retirement.
  4. Retirement Strategies Vary: Wealth management clients need personalized plans that balance their wants and needs for a comfortable retirement.
  5. Crypto’s Place in Wealth Management: Chris Ball believes cryptocurrencies are here to stay. However, investors need to be prepared for volatility and risk with crypto, making it unsuitable for many traditional clients.

Links relevant to the conversation

Chris’s business, Hoxton Wealth: https://hoxtonwealth.com/ 

Chris’s bio: https://hoxtoncapital.com/staff/chris-ball/ 

Chris Ball’s LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrisballhx/ 

Fundsmith Equity Fund mentioned by Chris in the episode: https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/ 

Controversy over Dave Ramsey’s retirement withdrawal rate recommendation:

https://youtu.be/Rc1nJj4vE_w?si=_7fVgjShgFKg6VX-

https://youtu.be/kghKiz1Mi_8?si=2jAP9DtWKN-LoR50

https://youtu.be/dM6Jqm7PPpg?si=pPvYh08bieusPBzO

Info on tax in UAE:

https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/united-arab-emirates/individual/taxes-on-personal-income

Lumo Coffee promotion

10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.

Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED 

Promo code: 10EXPLORED 

Transcript: Balancing Needs & Wants: Chris Ball, Hoxton Wealth, on Global Wealth Management in an Uncertain World – EP255

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Chris Ball  00:04

Crypto is here to stay number one. I don’t, I don’t really think it’s going anywhere. I think you’ve got to be quite that, have quite thick skin to invest in crypto and be comfortable with ups and downs. Probably most of these things is, as we saw, kind of pre 22 was that a lot of people don’t really understand what cryptocurrencies are and what drive them, and unfortunately, a lot of people lose a lot of money.

Gene Tunny  00:35

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode. Please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello and welcome to the show. In today’s episode, we’re joined by Chris ball, CEO of Hoxton wealth, we talk about his company’s focus on wealth management for internationally mobile individuals based in Dubai. Hoxton wealth operates globally, with offices in the UK, Australia, the US and Europe. The company caters to high net worth and to mass affluent clients, offering fee based services. Chris emphasizes the importance of understanding clients’ needs versus their wants and developing comprehensive financial plans for them. In our conversation, he highlights the use of AI to streamline administrative tasks and the challenges of property investing in the current political climate with various left wing parties proposing radical policy interventions. OK, thanks to Lumo coffee for sponsoring this episode. This grade one organic specialty coffee from the highlands of Peru is jam packed full of healthy antioxidants. There’s a 10% discount for economics explored listeners and details are in the show notes. Okay? Without further ado, let’s dive into the episode. I hope you enjoy it. Okay? Chris ball from Oxton wealth, the CEO and founder, thanks for appearing on the show.

Chris Ball  02:22

Thanks very much for having me appreciate it. Gene, yes,

Gene Tunny  02:26

be good to chat about wealth management and what you’re up to. So you’re based in the Middle East. Is that right? Chris,

Chris Ball  02:34

exactly, yes. I’m based in Dubai. I’ve actually been in the Middle East for 13 years now. So I moved out in 2011 in August, 31 of August. 2011 actually was in Abu Dhabi for nine years, which is the capital of the UAE. So Dubai’s more well known part of the business, well part of the country or part of the territory, but Abu Dhabi is actually the capital, and that’s where a lot of the oil wealth is in the United Arab Emirates. So yes, I’ve been based here for 13 years. Really enjoy it. We built out our business here. My kids were born here. So it’s been, it’s been quite a nice place or good it’s been a good place to me, I suppose, is the best way to put

Gene Tunny  03:18

it right. Okay, and what’s your business involved? What does Oxton wealth focus on?

Chris Ball  03:22

So we’re a wealth management business team. We focus on helping people that are internationally mobile manage their funds. And we’ve also got a UK domestic business as well, where we help people domestically in the UK with their financial planning. You know, we help with everything from helping people plan for retirement, plan for their kids’ education, funding for property purchases, tax planning, insurance planning, all of this good stuff that fits under that umbrella of financial planning. We’re a fee only or fee based service as well. So we don’t get paid commissions unless it’s for insurance related products, but all the financial planning and the investment advice that we give, we charge a fee, which makes us quite unique internationally, because a lot of people still work off the commission only model, and all day, every day, we’re helping people globally manage, manage their money in The in the most effective manner. We typically have people come to us with more complex situations, so maybe assets in Australia, but living in the UAE, or assets in the UK and living in the States. And we’ve got businesses globally. So obviously, in Dubai, where I currently am, we’re licensed and regulated. Also got offices in the UK. We’re regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. We have offices in Australia, where we’re regulated by ASIC. In the US with the Securities and Exchange Commission sec, and in Europe, our base is in Cyprus, which gives us that global coverage and enabling people move around to, you know, to manage their. Their their money and their funds and their planning more effectively. Gotcha.

Gene Tunny  05:03

And what’s your client base look like, broadly? Is it a lot of expats? Yeah,

Chris Ball  05:09

a lot of them are gene A lot a lot of our clients are expats or internationally mobile. Funnily enough, a lot of them have gone back to their home destinations as well now. So we have quite big footprints, dostically, with domestic what you would see is domestic clients, but it’s they’ve lived internationally, and now they cut, now they’ve come back. But, yeah, we, we typically help people with more complex financial planning needs than, you know, I’ve been a plumber and have, you know, put away a bit of their retirement, and they just want someone to manage it. So typically, we’re dealing with assets in multiple countries, and helping people plan for the next generation and how to how to pass it

Gene Tunny  05:46

on, right? And you have a lot of high net worth individuals. We

Chris Ball  05:51

do, indeed, yeah. So we deal with what we call mass affluent and high net worth individuals. We don’t have too many ultra high net worth individuals that we deal with our service or how we you know, the advice that we provide is is more geared to towards mass affluent and high net worth individuals, but typically, like I said, it’s more complex planning needs. So assets spread around different tax taxation rules that you need to take into account different regulatory regimes because they’ve got assets in different places and really working with them to find the best solution for them and their families,

Gene Tunny  06:27

right? Okay, before we I want to ask you a question about that. But before we do that, can you explain what do you mean by mass affluent versus high net worth? I mean, I just use high net worth individual, I sort of had an idea in my mind of what it is, but I wasn’t thinking too specifically. And then you mentioned ultra high net worth. How do you distinguish between those categories? We typically

Chris Ball  06:51

do it in kind of investable assets. So we’d say, let’s say I don’t know, half a million, up to a million, or that’s probably more like 250,000 up to a million, of assets we would class as what we call mass affluent. So there’s, you know, a lot of those people, and they’re affluent high net worth, we typically say from one to 5 million, and then ultra high net worth would be 5 million plus.

Gene Tunny  07:15

Gotcha, okay. And you talked about how you help them manage their their affairs. What are the typically, what are the things you look at, or what are the issues you deal with? I mean, you mentioned assets in different jurisdictions and tax I suppose I’m wondering, how do you, how do you go about finding a solution for your clients? A

Chris Ball  07:36

lot of people come to us with a very you know, they typically come in with one thing that they want to get, you know, one thing they want to get sorted. So let’s say a lot of our clients, what we call us connected people. So they have assets in the US, but they no longer reside in in the United States. So we would work with them to help them manage those US assets when they no longer reside in the US. But what most people really want to know is how much and when. So how much do I need and when can I stop working if I want to? Yeah, and you know, they’re the type of questions that we ask people because it’s difficult. You have to look holistically at all of their assets. You need to understand what their objectives and what motivates them and what they want to do, how much and when is very broad. How much you need will depend whether you want to fly business class, or you know you’re happy with economy, or whether you want five holidays a year, or you just want to go on one, whether you just want to travel domestically, or whether you want to live internationally, whether you want to support your kids, all of these things. It’s about questioning and listening and trying to find out, ultimately, what’s important to the client, to help them understand how much that they will need when they want to stop working. Now, where, you know, we kind of split that into kind of two buckets, which is, you know, what do I what do I need? You know, what’s a want, what’s a need, I suppose the best way to describe it. So what do I need to survive? And what do I want on top of that? And you know that also helps us understand realistically when they can retire. So you know, if you want $200,000 a year of income, and you’ve only got half a million dollars saved up at the moment, between your assignment assets in your bank account, you’re going to need to work for a bit longer, unfortunately, and helping them understand when that, you know, is likely to be given how much they can put away. And, you know, looking at realistic returns, and also stress testing that and flexing it as well. Yeah, is important. And you know, they’re the kind of things that we do, and they’re the kind of things that we really help people with. It’s about helping them develop that plan.

Gene Tunny  09:45

Yeah, gotcha. And you do financial modeling. How do you actually come up with that advice?

Chris Ball  09:51

So we’ve got an app that we have. So the first kind, I suppose, the first kind of step is, is that we would look to help people understand where they are. Are in the journey right at the start. So, you know, it’s great knowing where you want to get to, but if you have no idea where you started from, you’re not going to know how to get there. Very simply. There can be multiple ways to get to destination. So first off, it’s really getting a, you know, building a balance sheet, building a view of your net worth, of what you currently have. So we can get a good picture of where you currently are. We then go to the next phase, once we’ve got that. And we do this all on our app, our Hoxton wealth app, it’s free to download, even for people that aren’t clients, and they can go through this same exercise. The next is understanding their objectives, what’s important to them, understanding what they want out of life. Like we just said, The next phase is the modeling gene, which is we do through Cash Flow Planning, so ultimately helping them understand how much, and then looking at when. Then it is developing out the financial plan with them, step four, and then step five, which in my view, is the most important part, is constantly reviewing that with them every, every year, every six months, to make sure it’s still in line with what they want, making sure, you know, if there’s been any life changes we’ve, we’ve been working with them to ensure that their plan still works, or in making any tweaks to it if we need to.

Gene Tunny  11:17

Yeah, okay. Oh, that’s that’s good. And Have you followed this debate in I’ve seen it on YouTube between Dave Ramsey and and other financial advisors about what percentage you can take out of your your retirement funds each year and live on without running the risk of running out of money. And so one of Dave Ramsey’s colleagues, George Carmel, I think it is He. He was saying, Oh, be really conservative. There’s a he was saying 3% I think the fire people financially independent retire early people say 4% and then Dave Ramsey goes, no, that’s just too conservative. You can take 8% out or so, yeah, it was, yeah, but no one else agreed with Dave. That’s a huge controversy on about that bit of advice. I don’t know if you had a if you came across that at all, or had any views on that, but I’ll put some links in the show notes anyway, if people are interested in in checking that out. I just thought it was interesting that there was that even with someone like Dave Ramsey, who’s a well known financial advisor, he Yeah, that advice just seemed a bit yeah. It was very contentious. So there’s still some, it’s not a, I guess there is an element of that is up for debate and some of this advice. And suppose it depends on what rates of return you’re assuming and what level of risk you’re willing to tolerate. I don’t know if you’ve got any thoughts on that at all. Chris,

Chris Ball  12:55

yeah, I think the issue with kind of operating this, kind of, what the rule of four some people call it, it’s, you know, 4% which is the fire people like you said it’s, you know, it’s kind of widely adopted, I think, by a lot of planners. I mean, really, again, what we look at is, is okay, so needs and wants, you want your needs, ideally, to be built up with some kind of fixed level of income, because you don’t want to be worrying about your needs in retirement. So far, at the moment, what an area that we’re looking at for a lot of people, is using those needs or getting those needs funded by annuities, if you can do that when interest rates are high, and lock it in now, actually, that gives you a really good base in the US. You’ve got things like social security in the UK, state pension, etc, that can go towards that. But building that solid base up can be, can be a very sensible and prudent thing to do, because then you haven’t got to worry about the needs. With the wants, you can be more flexible. And typically with the wants, you want to be more, you know, in it, and you know you’re talking about 4% but you might actually want to take out 8% in the earlier years, and then 3% later on, as life tends to slow down, and that’s what we see a lot of as well. As people get, you know, older and maybe less mobile and want to go on less holidays, then you know that what’s the point in taking out more you really want to spend more in the earlier years? Well, probably when you can enjoy it, and then less than the later years, when you know, potentially, you know, health or or, or other issues, and getting around might, might prove a problem. Um, ultimately, what you don’t do is die the richest person in the graveyard, either way. Yeah. But also, you don’t want to be having to go back to work at 75 because that’s no fun for anyone, because you’ve run out

Gene Tunny  14:39

of money. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. So that point you made about, okay, make sure they get a steady, dependable income. And you were saying, annuities. What about investment property? To what extent are you getting? Are you advising them on the types of investments to generate that steady income? Do you have thoughts on. That, Chris,

Chris Ball  15:00

I think, I think property investor. I mean, look, it depends what parts, what parts of the world you’re talking about. So property investing, for a number of years, has been in vogue. So a lot of people have really found it attractive, or wanted to be a landlord. Now, what we’re finding is, with it rising interest rates, is it’s not very attractive to be a landlord. And actually, there’s a lot of headaches that come with being a landlord. So mortgage payments have gone up, but rental increases haven’t gone up as much. There’s very there’s more, you know, there’s a lot more socialist movements in the western world as well now that are making it more difficult to become a landlord. And, you know, put pushing, uh, pushing tougher regulation and on on landlords and how they operate, and then obviously, you’ve got all the maintenance that goes along with it as well. Do you really want to be trying to arrange a plumber in your 70s when you’re enjoying your retirement because your rental property is gone? Probably not. However, some people are portfolio landlords, and they’ve got, you know, a big you know that they use it for their fixed level of income. It is a great level. It is a great way to earn an income, I believe. And it should probably, you know, you should have some property in your portfolio, the cornerstone of it. But if you want a hands off investment, and you don’t like the day to day running of it, then you know, you should almost forget it, because I think it will become more of a job in retirement. It’s like most things, you’ve got to really want to do it and enjoy it, whereas your more traditional style investments, much less hands off, much more liquid. You know, there’s no management involved really, you know, by dividend paying stock or something like that. So I feel that more people are going to creep back into that side, and property will become less in vogue as we go forward. But, yeah,

Gene Tunny  16:48

gotcha. So can I understand? I just want to understand, are you, are you advising on the specific investments they should make, where they should put their money, or you just advising on the broadly what they should be saving what the broad asset allocation should

Chris Ball  17:04

be. So we’re holistic financial planners. We do take into account people’s risk tolerances and then ultimately help them devise investment portfolios that are suited to their risk. You know, we everything we do is risk created for our clients. Ultimately, we don’t want to be putting someone in 100% equities or a single stock equity, if they are if they won’t sleep at night when the market goes down by 10% you know, it’s all about what tolerance that you have to risk and how comfortable you can get with taking on risk yourself. But you know, typically, Gene we don’t advise on individual stocks and shares, so we’re not saying, buy Apple, sell Amazon, buy Tesla, sell Nvidia. They probably don’t want to sell nervidia at the moment. But ultimately, what we’re set what we’re saying to them is, is that we are broad based, indexed investors. We have a few actively managed funds in there with active managers that we feel have a good chance of beating the market over time due to their investment philosophy, which is typically long term investing. But we are in this for the longer term. We’re not day traders, we’re not jumping in and out. We’re not jumbling around asset allocation. We’re not trying to be territory specific. It’s it’s broad based, indexed investing is what we typically do,

Gene Tunny  18:24

yeah. And so those active investors, or the fund managers, where are they based? Are you able to say anything about them? I mean, I recognize it might be confidential, but what sort of businesses are we talking about there?

Chris Ball  18:38

So one of the funds that we invest in is a fund called fund Smith. I don’t know if you’ve ever heard of them before, by a guy called Terry Smith. So he’s the UK’s answer to Warren Buffett. They run about a 50 billion US dollar equity fund. They do, you know they do really well. He’s actually in our office yesterday, talking to our team. So we invested in it, in their active fund, other funds that we’ve looked at before, Blackrock world technology, we found that’s been good fun to get technology exposure, and there’s a couple of others as well. But really what we’re looking for is long term over performance of the equity market, which, as we know, it’s very difficult for a active manager to do over a long period of time. But there are the kind of, there are the there are the individuals that can potentially do it. And ultimately, I know it’s very difficult to pick them, and statistically speaking, it’s unlikely that they will over long periods of time, but we find it just offers, you know, that kind of passive, active hybrid can be quite nice and can offer some good returns to,

Gene Tunny  19:41

okay, so, well, a combination of passive and active. Okay, gotcha, gotcha. And how did you come to pick those funds you were looking at their historical performance, or you just, I mean, I imagine they do a roadshow, they pitch to you. I mean, how do you make the decision which, uh. Which fund manager to go with. So we

Chris Ball  20:01

have a fund research team that are constantly looking at different managers and speaking to them. We have a buy list, and then from that buy list we, you know, we essentially drill down. We have investment notes on each and then we’ll drill down and pick the underlying model portfolios. So we don’t tend we tend to run model portfolios again. Our our planners are financial planners. They’re not investment advisors. They’re two separate things. So we have a set of investment advisors that construct the portfolios for the financial planners. Gotcha?

Gene Tunny  20:35

Okay, yep, yeah, that makes sense. And I should ask, because I’ve had a few guests on the show talk about crypto, and what are your thoughts about cryptocurrency?

Chris Ball  20:46

I think crypto is here to stay number one. I don’t, I don’t really think it’s going anywhere. I think you’ve got to be quite, quite thick skin to invest in crypto and be comfortable with ups and downs. Probably most of these things is that, as we saw, kind of pre 22 Hey, it was during 2021 when the market, the crypto markets, got up to their highest points, was that a lot of people don’t really understand what cryptocurrencies are and what drive them. And unfortunately, a lot of people lose a lot of money when your next door neighbor becomes a expert in something. It normally means that the market is getting pretty hot and it’s time to get out. Unfortunately, when you’ve got people shouting to the moon every five minutes, then you know it’s it can make things slightly more difficult. But I do think, if you are happy for a large risk rated return, are you happy for a very big upside, but also happy to stomach that the big downside that can go with it and the volatility, then I think crypto does present an interesting opportunity. And like I said, I think it’s here to stay, but that’s not something that we would typically advise on. That’s just kind of my personal opinion on it. But as a business, we, we aren’t regulated, to advise on crypto, right?

Gene Tunny  22:01

Okay, yep, gotcha. And how concerned are you with geopolitical risk at the moment, particularly since you’re in the Middle East, is that affecting your your advice at all? Yeah.

Chris Ball  22:15

I mean, look, we don’t advise locally in terms of our you know, we’re not investing in local assets here in the Middle East. Obviously, political tensions are rising with, you know that Hamas and Israel, and now Hezbollah and Israel, that seems to be getting stronger. Obviously, if there is an out and out war, that wouldn’t be good for the Middle East, but you would expect things like oil prices to rise pretty rapidly as a result of that, especially if it’s affecting especially for other parts of the Middle East, getting involved as well, Saudi UAE, other bigger players, that would not be good necessarily, for for the overall region, in terms of locally. Are we seeing anything on the ground? No. I mean, this business is normal. You actually hear very little about it, unless you’re reading a lot of the publications. It’s not impacting your daily life in any way. Obviously, we’re looking, from a investment, short term investment perspective, at what’s happening in the US. And you know, seeing, we’re seeing how then elections in November will play out Ultimately, though, we don’t think a lot of it will impact too much. I think you know, if Miller Harris gets in, then ultimately it will continue. How, how will what we’ve seen with Biden more the same, and then obviously, if Donald Trump gets in, you know, we know that he tries and pushes up the markets. We might seem see a bit more of a short term push in it. But really, you know, the Constitution in America is, is, is insanely well guarded, and doesn’t really allow governments to make too many horrendous decisions. You know, it has to go through. Congress has to go obviously, before it can, you know, be put into action. So it’ll be interesting to see how it goes and what happens. But I wouldn’t expect anything too drastic, right?

Gene Tunny  24:07

Okay, okay, fair enough. And I’d like to ask about the economic and demographic trends and how they’ve affected your business and what you see happening over, say, the next decade or two. I mean, are you seeing changes in the demographics of your client base? Are you seeing more of the high net worth individuals due to I don’t know to what extent you’d you’d see it, but there are concerns expressed by some about growing inequality globally, the rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer, so to speak. Do you see that those impacts in what’s happened with your business, the growth of your business, the composition of your client base?

Chris Ball  24:53

Yeah, I think yes, and no, I suppose that there is obviously that worry that the rich are getting richer and the. Were getting poorer, that that equality gap, I think what we’ve seen more of is the flights of wealthy people to places like the Middle East, or places with lower taxes, as we’ve seen Taxes increase. And obviously, you know, that was bound to happen with the amount of money that they were spending during covid and, you know, trying to push the push through more money into the economies that’s got to be paid back for from somewhere. And I think it’s kind of like payback time now, especially in the UK, we’ve got a Labor government in now, and Keir Starmer came out and said, those with the broadest shoulders would bear the cost of it. You know, for everyone, basically, you know, if you’re rich, you’re rich, you’re going to get taxed more than anyone else, so that obviously, what concerns a lot of more wealthy people, I think that you’ve got the one end of the spectrum, which is the ultra high net worths that it doesn’t really matter, and they will go wherever they need to, and obviously they can pay for the advice. It’s more that kind of mass affluent ultra high net worth that it will really pinch the can’t move as easily. And, you know, we’ll, we’ll get caught up other things that we’ve seen, obviously inflation and rising interest rates. You know, that’s that’s been interesting, because we’ve obviously seen money come out of equity markets and go into things like money market instruments. So, you know, there was an insane amount last year in money market instruments, because interest rates were so high and the risk rated return meant that you could keep it there, and you were getting over 5% return. I mean, you know, why would you be investing in equity markets that had the potential to go down quite a lot? You know, technological advancements, we’ve obviously seen things like aI really driving the markets this year as well, and that’s had a big impact whether that kind of shine wears off, and what happens over the longer run is this, is there a lot of hype with looking at some of the PE ratios of some of the S, p5, 100. I mean the top seven, all of them are over 30. I think bar meta, which was at 29 that’s a lot. I mean, I think it was something like Tesla, yeah, he was paying, I think it was nearly double check, but I’m pretty sure it was like 74 I suppose. I mean, how can a car manufacturer be beat that? I know they’re trying to build themselves as more as a technological business, but crazy. So a lot of things like that are driving our business as well, because ultimately, it’s driving more wealth to people that hold that and have back technology. Shift to ESG, another one you know that we’ve had, we before, covid, if you remember, everyone was on this call, whole kind of environmental, social and governance piece. It seems a little bit less in your face now, but I think we’ll get back to that as as things, as things die down a bit more. Maybe not with a Republican, with a with a Republican Congress or republican president, but we shall, we shall see how that plays out. There’s so much that goes on that that impacts how we operate, but it’s really just trying to put your finger on it, isn’t it, and see which things really move the move the dial.

Gene Tunny  28:09

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  28:43

Now back to the show. You remind me about the tax settings in the Middle East. Said is, am I right in remembering they don’t have an income tax is that right? Some

Chris Ball  28:57

countries do, but ultimately, where I’m currently based now, the United Arab Emirates, doesn’t they recently introduced corporation tax, but there’s no income tax on individuals. Saudi Arabia, no income tax. QA no income tax. Qatar, no income tax. Bahrain, no income tax as well. So the GCC zero income tax for individuals,

Gene Tunny  29:22

right? And, I mean, Saudi’s got, I guess, does UAE get oil income too, like the Saudis do from their their state owned oil company, yeah, and have a soft and wealth fund. Okay, I’ll have to, I’ll look a bit more into it, but yeah, it might put some links in the show notes. So it’s interesting, isn’t it? That’s one of the reasons people are attracted to to Dubai, for example. And you get a lot of really good people go to Dubai. But then there’s also concerns about money laundering. I’ve seen that there’s concerns about Australian outlaw motorcycle gangs, their members. Buying up luxury apartments in Dubai high rises. There was a 60 minute story about that couple of months ago. So yeah, Dubai is very attractive to people with money from all sorts of different places in the world, all sorts of

Chris Ball  30:16

backgrounds, exactly. I mean, Dubai was on the gray list for money laundering, until recently, where it’s come off. So I think that was the kind of jolt that was needed locally. And they take it very, very seriously. So the banks over here, you know, probably more so than you get in Australia and in the UK, constantly asking you, where’s the money come from? You’ve sent money. Can you prove where it’s come from? Like, there is a there is a high area of transparency that’s needed with the banks. You can’t operate in this opaque nature anymore. You know, cash transactions for properties, they’re trying to wean out and things like that. So they are making it more and more difficult and trying to take it seriously, as you would expect from an economy that is developing and wants to be developed, and is doing, you know, all the good things that they’re doing it, it would be a shame to get tarnished with that, with that brush, but, yeah, I mean, look locally the wealth is earned from, you know, the locally Abu Dhabi, the wealth is earned from will that is then, you know, that has been their main source of income. They’ve developed the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and then various subsidiaries around that as well, which is their sovereign wealth fund, which ultimately they go out and invest in other businesses as well to try and buy returns. So when the oil does run out, they can continue to support the country as well. And obviously, very similar to what they do in likes and Norway Saudi Arabia’s got there, I think it’s the the PIF, the public investment fund as well. So, yeah. So, you know, it seems like a lot of these Gulf states, that’s how they want to go and do things, which is obviously great, because if that keeps income taxes down, then then that’s obviously good for them to attract wealth as well, which will ultimately be spent indirectly in their economy as well,

Gene Tunny  32:00

yeah, yeah, okay, and that’s, that’s good, Chris, it was a good overview of different, different factors, different trends. What ask about AI. You mentioned AI and you were talking about, you know, what that meant for the market, for investment opportunities, what does it mean for you? What does it mean for wealth management? Are you taking advantage of it?

Chris Ball  32:22

Yeah, definitely. I think that AI will not replace advice, because advice is about questioning and trying to work with you to get answers. But where, I think you know, ultimately, people want to see the whites of people’s eyes when they when they invest. It’s it’s nice to deal with a person. And I don’t think you’ll replace that in the in the near future. Anyway, I think ultimately, AI, what we’re using it for, is to try and limit the amount of repetitive tasks that we have to do, trying to take, you know, trying to improve our administration, processes, data entry, processes, all of these things by using AI, which ultimately, hopefully drives down costs, increases profit margins within the business, and means that ultimately we can try and help a wider range of people that need our services. Because, again, you were talking before about that equality in terms of net worth that exists in wealth management as well. I mean, you know, there’s a subset of people that could probably really do with advice, but don’t get it because it’s not profitable for firms to be able to service them. They can’t do it. They can’t run it at a loss. So yeah, so it’s we all. I think we’ll see more AI tools come in to offer simplified advice to that subset of people, and then as their wealth accumulates, then they’ll be able to deal with maybe more face to face advisors, where, when it becomes a, you know, feasible for them and for the company?

Gene Tunny  33:51

Yeah, yeah. So there’s talk about robo advisors. So is that that’s what you’re thinking about. For the people with the smaller amounts of of funds they there’d be automated advice.

Chris Ball  34:03

Or, yeah, I think, I think Robo advice is an interesting one. I don’t think a good financial planner has ever lost a client to a robo advisor. Okay, robo advisors more. I’ve got $100,000 or $50,000 I don’t want to use an advisor. I just want someone to place the funds for me. So it’s more. I think it Okay. Probably replace investment advice, but the financial planning aspect is much more personal.

Gene Tunny  34:25

Yeah, gotcha, because you have to take into account the personal circumstances figure out what Yeah. The thing I liked how you were, you were talking about needs versus wants and the standard of living that they want in retirement. I thought that was, they were good points, right? Oh, okay. And how, finally, how are you using technology to interact and communicate with your clients? So, how does so, do you have an app or a portal that they Yep, okay,

Chris Ball  34:56

so we’ve got the Hoxton wealth app gene, which is our client portal. So they can, like I said, they can see their overall net worth, their plans, their policies, they can upload their documents. We communicate through push message out to them and things like that. And we’re really developing that out to become our one stop shop to communicate with clients. We have our back end, which is our operating system, effectively, which is called matrix. And that is how we, how we, you know, do fact finds, how we manage our client relationships, how we help the advisors manage more clients efficiently, rather than through paper based things, losing data, you know, data security, data integrity, is super important to us, and also, you know, it’s, it’s, you know, worth a lot to a business in terms of management information and the like. To, yeah,

Gene Tunny  35:46

absolutely okay. And Chris, what, what? Where can we find more about you? Do you have a podcast? Do you have a newsletter that people can can subscribe to? Yep,

Chris Ball  35:57

so I feature regularly on a podcast called financial planner life. But the best place to find out more about me is through my LinkedIn profile, which is Chris Paul. If you just type Chris Paul Hoxton into the search bar, it will come up and then also, obviously our company website, http://www.hoxtonwealth.com, you’ll be able to see more on you know what we’re about and what we’re doing and how everything’s going.

Gene Tunny  36:23

Okay? Well, I’ll put links in the show notes to those, to your LinkedIn, for sure, and to your to your website. Found this really informative. And, yeah, good discussion, Chris, I like the point you made about, yeah, the risk to investment properties. We’re seeing that here within Australia, because we’re having a, you know, major housing crisis, and I guess, yeah, big increase in homelessness. That was a sharp increase in rents about a year or maybe a year or so ago, and now you’ve got a political party, which was the Greens political party, and it’s morphing into a party of renters, and they’re getting a lot of traction because there are a lot of disaffected, you know, people out there who, who are, you know, not happy with the housing situation. And so, yeah, the great, but the so I understand where they’re coming from. The issue is that the policies that The Greens are advocating for are not actually correct the problem, and could actually make it worse with their the idea of red freezes and caps and things so that all sorts of silly, you know, really bad economic policy. But yeah, I thought your point was well made, and it did it. So, yeah, yeah, absolutely, that’s a really good point. Any, any final thoughts before we wrap up?

Chris Ball  37:47

No, that’s it for me, really, unless you’ve got anything. But thanks very much for having me on. Really appreciate if your if your listeners want to download our app, the Hoxton wealth app, type it into the app store, they can download it for free. Yeah. And if you ever need anything, let me know. Will

Gene Tunny  38:04

do okay? Chris ball from oxen wealth, thanks so much for joining me.

Chris Ball  38:08

We appreciate gene thanks very much.

Gene Tunny  38:11

Righto, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics, explore.com or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you, then please write a review and leave a writing. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

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Credits

Thanks to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Navigating Volatile Crypto Markets & Avoiding Scams w/ Ben Simpson, Collective Shift – EP249

Ben Simpson, founder of Collective Shift, a crypto education and research company, shares valuable insights into the volatile world of cryptocurrency. Because the crypto field is filled with misinformation and scams, Ben emphasises the need for comprehensive education and reliable research before making investment decisions. He emphasises the importance of understanding the risks and potential of Bitcoin and other digital assets. He also discusses the regulatory landscape in Australia and the disruptive potential of decentralised finance (DeFi). NB This podcast episode contains general information only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please email us at contact@economicsexplored.com  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Apple Podcast and Spotify.

What’s covered in EP249

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • Crypto market volatility and how to navigate it. (1:40)
  • Bitcoin as a digital gold with potential for long-term growth. (6:54)
  • Crypto regulation, tax treatment, and education. (12:21)
  • Investing in cryptocurrency, avoiding scams, and seeking professional help. (16:44)
  • Bitcoin ETFs and investment options in Australia. (21:06)
  • Crypto market volatility, correlation with the stock market, and investment strategies. (25:20)
  • Crypto investing and decentralised finance with Ben Simpson. (31:03)

Takeaways

  1. Understanding Crypto Volatility: Cryptocurrency markets, especially Bitcoin, are highly volatile. Investors must be prepared for significant price swings and understand the underlying factors driving these fluctuations.
  2. Importance of Education: The crypto space is filled with misinformation and scams. Ben emphasises the need for comprehensive education and reliable research before making investment decisions.
  3. Regulatory Landscape: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, particularly in Australia, is still evolving. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are generally considered safe from a regulatory standpoint, many other cryptocurrencies could face challenges.
  4. Decentralised Finance (DeFi): DeFi has the potential to disrupt traditional banking by offering financial services without intermediaries. This space is growing and may offer exciting opportunities for investors.
  5. Safe Investing Strategies: Ben advises new investors to start with Bitcoin and be cautious of lesser-known cryptocurrencies, many of which may lack real value and be risky investments.

Links relevant to the conversation

Collective Shift: https://collectiveshift.io/ 

Ben’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@BenCollectiveShift 

Ben and Bergs podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5xir3V8fvtmHTAQy2D9dQd 

Transcript: Navigating Volatile Crypto Markets & Avoiding Scams w/ Ben Simpson, Collective Shift – EP249

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:00

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host, Gene, Tunny, I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode. Please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello. Thanks for tuning in to the show. In this episode, we sit down with Ben Simpson, the founder of collective shift, a leading crypto education and research company in Australia, Ben shares his wealth of experience in navigating the volatile and often chaotic world of cryptocurrency investing. One of the key takeaways from our conversation is the importance of understanding the inherent volatility of the crypto market. Ben discusses the volatility of crypto markets, explaining why assets like Bitcoin can see dramatic price swings. He also touches on the regulatory landscape in Australia and the importance of having clear guidelines to protect investors. Ben emphasizes the need for comprehensive education and guidance as the crypto space is rife with misinformation and scams that can easily trap unwary investors. Finally, Ben shares his insights on the disruptive potential of decentralized finance. Defi, righto, let’s get into the episode. I hope you enjoy it. Ben Simpson from collective shift, welcome to the program.

Ben Simpson  01:39

Thanks so much, so much for having me. It’s good to be here.

Gene Tunny  01:41

Yes, it’s excellent. Ben, so you’ve been doing some fascinating things with collective shift. Could you tell us a bit about which you’re the founder of? Could you tell us a bit about collective shift, please? What is it that you’re that you’re offering?

Ben Simpson  01:55

Yes, I’ve been full time investing into the crypto space for seven or eight years, and it’s a very messy, chaotic industry, lot of misinformation, lot of bad people in the space. It’s just very difficult to get clarity on what’s going on actually when you invest in crypto. So when I first started out, I personally didn’t really know what what was going on. Took me a lot of time to figure out blockchain and Bitcoin and Ethereum and just all these terminologies and what it all meant. And I started working with someone in the education space to help people with crypto and eventually, I started my own thing about four years ago. And you know what we built now is we’re the largest independent education and research company in Australia. We have over 1000 paying clients around the world that pay us for crypto investment research and sort of advice. And then also we provide research and content to the crypto exchanges here in Australia. So those coin spot, Swift X, those are buy and sell cryptocurrency for like for retail customers, we provide them with some of their content research as well. So yeah, we’ve got a team about 10 full time now here in Australia. And yeah, we’ve been around for about four years. And my my mission is just to help people try and navigate their way through crypto the right way. Because I know I’ve been burned in the past in a space it’s very easy to lose money and be led down the wrong path. So we’re trying to just help people the right way, right?

Gene Tunny  03:19

Okay, and you mentioned that you were concerned about some of the misinformation in the in crypto, what, what type of things we we are you thinking of? It’s just

Ben Simpson  03:29

a lot. So in cryptocurrency, there’s 1000s and 1000s of different cryptocurrencies right now. So like, if you think about the stock market, there’s basically that equivalent in crypto, but a an endless amount of cryptocurrency projects you could buy, and my opinion is 95 to 98% of them are worthless, like they’re just built on, you know, community and, you know, FOMO, and you know, they don’t have a lot of underlying real value. And a lot of people get sucked into these projects, buying them with the hope of making a lot of money because they provide these crazy marketing guarantees and returns and all these sorts of things that people get sucked into and ultimately lose money. So that’s really where we’re trying to help guide people, from an education standpoint, where to invest. And then ultimately, cryptocurrency is extremely volatile, and it can be hard for someone to stomach the risk that comes along with crypto, Bitcoin on its journey from, you know, a few $100 to today, 55, 60,000 US dollars has gone up and down hundreds of times, you know, more than 10% and sometimes it goes down 4050, 60% in a period of days or weeks, which can be very concerning for a lot of people, because you don’t get that in the stock market right. If two or 3% in a day is kind of big in crypto, you could see 1020, 30% moves in a day. So we try and just help people understand why that happens, how to have the mindset and understanding of where the market’s going and not panic and and ultimately, try and, you know, not lose money. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  05:00

gotcha. Okay, there’s a few things I wouldn’t mind following up there. Ben, so, I mean, there’s the issue of, I mean, why does this happen? Why is crypto subject to such wild swings? Why is it so volatile? For one, could we start there, please? Yeah, let’s

Ben Simpson  05:18

start there. So one common thing that some people don’t know is that cryptocurrency trades 24/7 right when the stock market opened, has opened, open and closed times at Monday to Friday, cryptocurrency trades 24/7 and what we saw, you know, in the last few days in Japan, you know, Japan saw one of his worst days since the 1980s in the stock market. Recently, I think it dropped seven or 10% in a day, they hold to trading. You they literally just withdrew the sell button. You can’t sell anymore, right? In cryptocurrency, that that’s not, that’s not a thing. You can’t just hold trading in crypto, right? This is a free market. There’s no one, there’s no intermediary to stop what you’re doing. So it’s a free market. And ultimately, people you know, have emotions they fear, and if they’re going to sell, they’re going to sell. And in cryptocurrency, because the market caps of these projects are relatively small, you get these liquidation events, and what happens is basically these cascading effects of traders get liquidated, whales get liquidated, retail investors then panic, and then you get these huge fluctuations. So there’s a lot of different variables, but ultimately, it’s a free market. No one’s manipulating it from a, you know, intermediary perspective, and if people are scared, they’re going to sell. And it happens pretty quickly, right?

Gene Tunny  06:27

Okay, now, if you’re getting into this market, I mean, if you’re interested in crypto, do you, do you provide some guiding principles, or do you identify red flags. Can you tell us a bit about what new investors should be looking out for?

Ben Simpson  06:45

Yeah, so if I have a new investor that comes to me and wants to figure out how to create an investment portfolio, I really, I really try and recommend that they start off with just Bitcoin. It’s really important to understand that Bitcoin is the biggest, most leading cryptocurrency. It’s the most well known. Then there’s 1000s of other cryptocurrencies after that, right? So it’s important to differentiate Bitcoin from cryptocurrency, because Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, but bitcoin is its own separate thing, and that’s the way I look at it. So I usually start off by just looking at Bitcoin, and Bitcoin, ultimately, for me, should, or for others, should be looked at as a hedge against, you know, your overall investment portfolio, right? It’s not correlated to stocks or the property market or bonds. It’s ultimately a completely separate asset that is in its own area. And I would probably think even only 1% of your entire net wealth into Bitcoin, I think is a pretty good good idea, just in terms of its risk to reward ratio. So the reward being potentially, if it pulls off what it’s trying to achieve. In terms of the global monetary asset, the price returns are quite or the projections are quite large, where the risk is quite minimal, in a sense of it’s been around for 10 or 12 years. It’s now got its own ETF, which was the one of the largest ETF launches in history. It’s owned by a lot of NASDAQ listed companies. You know, it’s owned by governments on their balance sheet. So, like, the risk of Bitcoin now is far, far, far less than what it has been in the past and where we think it could go. I think everyone should consider it in terms of just, even only a little

Gene Tunny  08:21

bit. Right? Okay, so in terms of where you think it can go. I mean, you, are you thinking Bitcoin to a million? I think was that? Was that Kathy Wood, did she have that prediction? I mean, is that? Is that serious or credible?

Ben Simpson  08:35

I mean, look, you know, who knows is really the answer gene like, you know, who knows where this could go? The biggest thing that I think is the most important thing to understand with Bitcoin is it’s a limited supply asset. There’s only 21 million Bitcoin that ever be created. And the supply and demand economics, as we’ve seen recently, there’s more demand for Bitcoin that there is supply, right? And just basic supply and demand economics is showing us that if you get a lot of people wanting an asset, and there’s very few, there’s very few of it, you know, the price, you know, goes up over time. Do I think you get to a million dollars? I do think you can get there at some stage. Maybe, you know, it’s probably gonna take 1020, 30 years to get there. But for me, Bitcoin compound has been compounding at 60% year over year for the last 10 years. It’s up 75% of the last 12 months. It’s one of the best performing assets on the planet. For me, I think it’s one of the best investments you can own.

Gene Tunny  09:29

Right? Okay, and what’s your what’s your theory or like, Why do you think that there is this underlying value? Because there is a lot of skepticism about cryptocurrency, particularly from economists, and there’s all sorts of concerns about regulatory risk. I mean, you pointed to the fact that, okay, it’s been held. You know, certainly people are investing in it at the moment. But, yeah, I just wonder what’s the story regarding the actual. Use case for it? Is there a use case outside of some illegal transactions? Yeah.

Ben Simpson  10:05

And I think, I think the hardest thing for most people to wrap their head around is that, you know, you can’t touch it, you can’t feel it, you can’t smell it like it’s a completely digital asset, and it doesn’t have free cash flow, right? Warren Buffett hates it. He calls a rat poison square, right? There’s a lot of people that don’t like it, because it’s not, not similar to what’s been around in previous times. If we look at a country like, you know, Venezuela, right? Or, you know Mexico, some of these places, not, maybe not Mexico, but Venezuela, right? We look at some of these places where they’re fiat currency, Argentina, sorry, who was I was looking for their local local currency has inflated so much that it’s basically worthless, right? It just continues to inflate. Because of the government has printed more and more money. So holding something that isn’t controlled by government, something that is inherently deflationary, in a sense that it doesn’t increase its supply. In fact, the circulating supply slows down. People are looking at Bitcoin now as a new digital gold, you know, not to say it’s going to replace gold. Gold is, you know, one of the safest assets on the planet, but this is a new version of gold. I use Bitcoin to pay my employees. If I go and try and pay my overseas staff with my bank account, it gets shut down. Many phone calls from their frauds team. They want to know where it’s going, why it’s going. They take huge conversion rate fees. It takes two weeks to arrive. It’s horrendous. Where I can send bitcoin instantly to anyone in the world with no middleman, and they can receive it, you know, within seconds. And that’s being utilized more and more, from from from businesses in different countries, as well, from a payments level. But ultimately, the the use case for me is it’s a digital gold. It’s an asset that, you know, continues to perform, you know, over time. And I think the best way to look at it is, is that digital gold, you know, analogy, and we’re seeing, you know, companies like micro strategy and NASDAQ, listed company, you know, holding hundreds of 1000s of Bitcoin now in the balance sheet, because if you continue to hold cash, just the the purchasing power of your dollar is doing to devalue. Like, where do you park your cash? What? What asset can you hold that’s going to be a hedge against inflation? You know, a gold has an outbeat. Hasn’t out beaten inflation in the last five years. Like, where do you put your money? And Bitcoin starting to be seen as something that you can park your capital in,

Gene Tunny  12:19

right? Okay. And what do you see is that, are there regulatory risks with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? Central banks are looking at CBDCs, the central bank digital currencies. Is there a risk that there could be a regulatory crackdown on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? Yeah, I

Ben Simpson  12:41

definitely think there’s a risk for some cryptocurrencies. You know, again, important to differentiate Bitcoin different to other cryptocurrencies. The SEC in the US has clearly defined Bitcoin as a commodity, and now they have their own Bitcoin spot ETF, now the Ethereum spot ETF. So the government has approved, and the SEC has approved these financial instruments to buy bitcoin and Ethereum in the US and Australia tends to follow. There’s a Bitcoin ETF in Australia, so it’s from a regulatory framework. Bitcoin and Ethereum really is in a safe category now, but there is a lot of other crypto assets that could, could potentially look like securities, and that sort of plays a bit into some of these exchanges not being able to sell it. But no, the direction we’re going in and what, what we’re seeing now from the US and Australia is that, you know, even Donald Trump, right? Donald Trump, the other day, spoke at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, and wants us to be the hub of crypto. He wants the US to be the center of, you know, cryptocurrency sort of development in the world. So, yeah, I think it’s actually moving towards politically pandering or not politically a good thing for these, these candidates, to be pro crypto, because the reality is, a lot of people own it,

Gene Tunny  13:58

right? Okay, and what’s, what’s the regulatory environment like here in Australia, been seeing some of Senator Andrew Bragg’s commentary, and like he he’s been grilling Treasury public servants at estimates hearings, and it looks like that they’ve been rather slow in in setting up a regulatory environment, would you know what the issues are there? I mean, is what needs to happen with regulation in Australia for crypto? Yeah, I

Ben Simpson  14:29

think that then we’re actually asking for more regulation. Really like, because there’s really not much clarity. Like, and as an educator and someone that wants to help consumers, there is very little regulation. It’s very much in a gray area. You go and talk to lawyers and they give they give you a roundabout answer, but you know, I think the reality is gene that this asset class is so new and so few people truly understand it, that the existing regulation of securities and stocks and assets just doesn’t fit well with crypto, because it’s so unique and it’s so different. But. Many loopholes and so many unknowns and variables. I know there was a paper drawn up about recommendations recently, but, you know, these things move relatively slowly, and it goes through a lot of hands, so I’d love more regulatory clarity. You know, we saw some pretty poor things that happened in the US over the last few years, like FTX, you know, Celsius, these crypto exchanges that were doing nefarious things, you know, ultimately, that had nothing to do with the underlying asset. That wasn’t bitcoins fault, that was people running these exchanges that wanted to defraud customers. That was their fault. And if we had better regulation and overview, perhaps that wouldn’t have happened. So we’re welcoming that. It’s just yeah, these things take time with the politics and government. Unfortunately, yeah. And

Gene Tunny  15:41

what does it mean for the the tax treatment of crypto? So if you make a gain or a profit on your or a capital gain on your crypto, you’re liable for for tax for that. Are you?

Ben Simpson  15:51

Yeah, yeah, just like normal capital gains, like, if you sell Telstra shares for BHB shares, it’s a taxable event. Um, you pay your capital gains. You know, some investors may think that they can get away with it, but reality is, cryptocurrencies are built on a blockchain, and a blockchain is an immutable ledger that anyone can see, yeah, and we’ve seen the ATO now develop software to actually go and track these, these accounts that aren’t paying their tax. All the Australian exchanges have to report on all their users, so, you know, they’re having a real crackdown on that. And as they should, people thinking they get away with it is not, it’s not the right way to think about it. You know, people are paying their capital gains. And, yeah, there’s, there’s a lot of oversight now in that tax space as well. So, yeah, very much similar to the stock stocks. How would you how you pay your tax?

Gene Tunny  16:36

Yeah, gotcha. Okay, interesting with the just going back to the crypto education. I mean, I think that’s so important. Because the concern I have is that the, you know, everyone thinks crypto is a the next big thing. And, I mean, you know, possibly it is and yet, but you have a lot of dumb money go in, and you’ve got or a lot of people who probably shouldn’t be putting all their hard earned savings into into a speculative asset. I mean, maybe, I mean, you’re steering people toward the more established ones, but they’re also, you know, there are 1000s of other crypto currencies out there. So, yeah, if you did, if you did come across a proposal or a new what is it? Is it an ICR initial coin offering? Or, if you’re looking at investing in crypto, what are the sort of things that you should be that that would be a red flag that would set off alarm bells that, because I know I’ve heard this term rug pull. How would you how would you know if you could be a victim of that look?

Ben Simpson  17:40

Unfortunately, it’s very common in the cryptocurrency space. You know, I tend to direct people in only investing into older coins that have been around for a little while, like these. ICOs, initial coin offerings were a big thing back in the day, and unfortunately, a lot of people get sucked into these because they promise return, like anything that promises returns, guarantees percentage returns over a period of time. Has crazy lock up periods where you have to basically give your cryptocurrency and lock it up for a period of time to earn rewards, anything that pays you to bring on other people, like a Ponzi scheme, anything that has crazy marketing on social media. None of these good projects do any of that. And ultimately, a lot of those are probably scams, if any of the projects you’ve invested in does that. So ultimately, focus in the top assets. You know, the top 10, top 20, Bitcoin, Ethereum. Solana, start there before working your way down. The further down the market capitalist you go, the more risky the investments are. And unless you really tapped in to know what you’re doing, it can be very difficult to navigate. You know those investments and rug pulls are common the further you go down. Rug pulls are basically, you know, if you think of standing on a rug and someone pulls a rug underneath you, that’s just really when the founder or the owner, or there’s a there’s a hack of the project, and you lose all your money. So you really do need to be careful.

Gene Tunny  18:56

Gotcha. So if someone comes to you, so would they go to the collective shift side? And then there’s a online course you can do,

Ben Simpson  19:04

yeah. So we there’s basically two tiers. So one is, we just have our platform where you sign up, you log in, you can see all of our token ratings. So we do, you know, token things like morning staff for crypto, that’s what we’re trying to build, token ratings research community. We do live group sessions. They can jump on a live session with me, and I go through the market and how I’m investing. And then we have a higher tier. For those that are a bit more have a bit more capital at play. Usually they’re wanting to invest a quarter of a million plus, or they already have that invest in crypto. That’s where you can work one on one with me. We have private events. We do online sessions, you know, private sort of WhatsApp group, where we can kind of help you out and deliver you more support. And that’s really where we have our team of analysts by your side to give you independent information. And that’s really what people pay us for, because you can go online, you can listen to YouTubers, you can try and figure it all out yourself, but it’s going to take you a heap of time. You won’t know who to trust. Most likely, the person is giving you an information doesn’t really know what they’re talking about, and you can lose a lot of money if you’re not sure what you’re doing. So that’s really where we can come and help.

Gene Tunny  20:10

Yeah. So what takes a heap of time doing the research or getting set up or getting the wallet? I mean, what? What actually takes the time probably

Ben Simpson  20:20

initially, just even researching the space, what coins to buy, when to buy, when to sell, how to store it? Where do you store it? How do you you know? How do you not stuff it up? What are the scams look like this like? As you go further down the rabbit hole, there just becomes this infinite amount of information, and you Google crypto, and you just get a million different opinions and a million different people saying different things. And I think really where the time gets sucked in is the information overload. Did you start reading it like this? Says something? This is something else. Everyone has their own opinions, which right or wrong is, Can? Can just send you down a path of confusion? Yeah, and that’s why we work with a lot of people that come to me and go, Ben, I’ve done this, or I made this mistake. Or, you know, I just need help. I don’t know what to do. Can you help me? That’s kind of where we sort of step in. And can guide you. Okay?

Gene Tunny  21:06

And so this, what would this be? Why a Bitcoin ETF is a is an attractive proposition relative to actually owning Bitcoin yourself. Or,

Ben Simpson  21:17

yeah,

Gene Tunny  21:18

am I thinking, how is that right or yeah,

Ben Simpson  21:21

there’s your two options, right? If you want to go, Yeah, Ben, I want to go buy bitcoin tomorrow. What are my options? Well, number one is, you go, you sign up to a cryptocurrency exchange, you buy bitcoin, so you deposit Australian dollars, you buy bitcoin, and then you need to store it somewhere. You either store it with the cryptocurrency Exchange, or you get a wallet and you store it yourself, right? Yeah, that’s what I do. That’s what I recommend most people do. But that is, ultimately, you have to have some sort of knowledge, right? The other option is, you go to your brokerage account and you go and buy a Bitcoin ETF, and that’s what’s been so big in the US recently. You know, there’s a about 9% of the entire Bitcoin supply is now owned by ETFs. And basically the ETF is where you buy a share and that sits in your portfolio, and then the ETF provider is buying that Bitcoin and storing it on your behalf. So you have to worry about all the storage and custody. Yeah, gotcha.

Gene Tunny  22:13

And did you say there was a there’s a Bitcoin ETF here in Australia,

Ben Simpson  22:17

there is, there is, there’s a couple. I’m not actually sure what the ticker is. I’ll have to maybe send that to you later. Gene, that’s okay, just interested, yeah, but there is one launch recently in Australia. I think it might be ebtc. I don’t know. I have to double check, but, yeah, mono, actually, monochrome. Ibtc, monochrome is one of the first Bitcoin ETF, so you should be able to get that in your brokerage account. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  22:44

but the people you’re who come to you, it sounds like you’re helping them get set up on their own. And it sounds like you’ve got, I mean, you’ve got people who are really, you know, keen to learn, keen to keen to get into crypto. What’s the demographic? I mean, can you Yeah, for

Ben Simpson  23:03

sure, it’s really two types of customers we work with. One is, you know, 50 to 65 that maybe are investing in their SMSF, or they have a large amount of funds that they’ve invested into crypto, and they really want to, wanting to set themselves up for retirement. They need some help just figuring out how to do it. And the other demographic is, you know, 3540 years old, have have a have a family, have a business, have large amounts of investments elsewhere, and they might have 500,000 a million dollars. You know, we’ve got guys right up to 25 million in crypto that have their own businesses and stuff going on, and they need our help and our research and our frameworks to help guide them through the market. Think about exit strategy, risk profile, storage, you know, asset selection, you know, it’s like in it’s your own investment. You know, family office for some people, so they need some independent guidance to help Sure. You know, they don’t stuff it up,

Gene Tunny  24:01

right? And are you, as part of that? Are you providing advice on other investments, on their whole investment portfolio?

Ben Simpson  24:10

No, no, just, just, just cryptocurrency. So we give, we give sort of general frameworks and insights and research and data to help them make they still need to make the decision themselves. You know, we’re again, back to the regulatory piece. You know, we’re going to be first in line to get a cryptocurrency financial license when we can that. That doesn’t exist right now, because crypto isn’t, it isn’t seen as a financial product in Australia. You know, well, commodities aren’t. So, you know, once that becomes available, you know, we’re going to be first in line to get that, but for now, we just give general sort of information, and then people make up their mind from

Gene Tunny  24:46

there. Okay, and so do you have the what is it? The Australian Financial Services licensed, AFSL,

Ben Simpson  24:54

yeah, yeah, that’s what. I mean, we actually can’t get one for crypto, right? Okay, yeah, because it doesn’t fall. Like, cryptocurrencies don’t fall under that framework. So we had a, we had a meeting with, you know, ASIC, a private ruling, you know, while back, and it was just, unfortunately, they can’t provide one, because cryptocurrencies don’t fall under that and that’s where that regulatory discussion is going on. At some stage it should fall under something, yeah, and they will be able to be able to go and get that, yeah,

Gene Tunny  25:20

yeah. Well, it just looks like a real dereliction of duty on the part of our regulators, because you’ve got a lot of people interested in it and investing a lot of money, it sounds like it in it. I mean, if you’ve got people with what was it? 25 million in crypto? Yeah,

Ben Simpson  25:38

wow. And, and, and we, you know, from our business model, Gene, like we, we’re purely independent, right? We charge subscription fees for our information, and that’s it, right? You’ve got others that are charging fees, taking commission on investments, selling investments, getting paid to promote tokens. Like it is the Wild West, what some of these people are doing, right? And that’s completely just unregulated. People just go and do what they want. We don’t do any of that because we’re genuinely trying to help people. But yeah, we’re wanting this to come to the space so people can, you know, be, be more trusting in the information that’s out there? Yeah,

Gene Tunny  26:14

yeah, absolutely. I think that’s, that’s a good, a good strategy. And, yeah, I mean, it sounds like you need some type of license like that. That’d be good if they can develop that, and then, particularly if advice can be provided to people about how this sits within the whole portfolio and what other investment opportunities there are out there for people. Yeah, very good. I’d like to go on before we wrap up, just to you know what’s happened. What’s the state of the market recently? So you mentioned, well, there’s no, I mean, you said there’s no correlation between crypto and other assets. I’d like to talk about that and just understand what you mean there. I mean, because big there was a bit of a sell off, wasn’t there when we had the recent sell off in, you know, the S, P and all that, yep. So, like, how do you think about that? That correlation,

Ben Simpson  27:11

declare, to clarify the price is, is definitely still correlated right now, like, in terms of, like, when the stock market sell offs. You know, there’s definitely correlation with Bitcoin. To clarify in terms of, like, where I think it’ll be in five or 10 years time, I definitely see Bitcoin as a as not being correlated with the stock market. But yeah, what we saw over the last few days with, you know, the recession fears, and then Japan selling off and you know that that that carry trade idea that’s been going on, where people are borrowing money in Japan for zero interest, and, you know, buying assets in the in in in the States, and then Japan increase the interest rates, and all of a sudden everyone gets sort of margin called that found its way into crypto. And then, you know, one of the, one of the fascinating things gene is what happened on the weekend was that if you’ve got a margin call on a weekend where you can’t go and just withdraw hundreds of 1000s of dollars from your account. It takes 123, days from your banking. Yeah, you know, just position, right? Crypto is liquid. 24/7, so people need money, and they’ve got liquidity in crypto. You can go, just pull that out tomorrow, right? You need ten million tomorrow. You can get that within a second, right? If you have those that those assets, if you want to withdraw 10 million out of your brokerage account, oh my goodness, right, you gotta call someone out. They’re going to want to know where it’s going. Why is, why are you doing that? It’s going to take multiple days to to get approval. So what we saw was, people need liquidity. They go to crypto. Crypto sold off. There’s a lot of margin calls. Then what happens is the long, the long, traders in crypto got liquidated. The price just dumped. And then that was on our Monday, and by Tuesday, Japan had sort of in the futures market had corrected. Looks like they’re starting to get the money printers going again. And then crypto sort of bounced. I think bitcoins up 10 or 12% Ethereum is up six or 7% you know, overnight. So it was one of those real technical sell off events. Fundamentally, you know, nothing, nothing wrong with the asset class. But that’s, that’s what I mean with the volatility of crypto, things can happen. You know, you’re down 20% one day and up 10% the next day. Like, it’s pretty, pretty wild.

Gene Tunny  29:15

Yeah, yeah. So you’ve got to be prepared for that, and that’s part of what your your education is. So it’s the Yeah. I should note, we’re recording this on the seventh of August in Australia. And yeah, I’m always loath to talk. I’m always reluctant to talk too much about, you know, what’s happening in the market at the moment, because things can, things can change, and by the time you put about the podcast episode out, things can be completely different. But I thought I’d ask you about that. Yeah, that sounds like, it sounds like you’ve got a good, little, good little business there, and you’re, you’re helping people, because there’s certainly a an interest in in crypto, and I think you’re, it sounds like you’re coming from the you. Right place. Is there anything else? I mean, what sort of what are you focused on at the moment in the crypto market? What, what exciting things are you seeing? Ben,

Ben Simpson  30:10

yeah, that’s good question. Gene, I mean, I primarily focus on just building my portfolio of those, those more blue, blue chip, quote, unquote, Bluetooth assets, Bitcoin, Ethereum. I’m a very big believer in decentralized finance, or Defy. You know the idea where you can take out loans, earn interest on your money without the need of a bank, and then you can buy those underlying tokens that that that support that project, and you can earn the fees and interest from the lenders and the people putting up their capital. So defi is a big place for me. I’m pretty heavily invested into that. A lot of that defi activity is built on Ethereum. I’m a very big believer in Ethereum. And then you’ve got other, you know, different things going on, whether it be web three, gaming, whether it be, you know, different blockchains. There’s a lot going on in the crypto space. Yeah, sometimes I think that, you know, and I talk about this a lot, there’s, there’s a million solutions fighting for about five problems that you know, that actually need to be sold. And I think for a lot of people, you know that follow my content online, it’s a bit of a breath of fresh air, because you listen to a lot of crypto people, and it’s just, you it’s just, it’s up only right? It’s never going down. Everything’s amazing. Well, reality is it’s not. And there’s a lot of crap in the crypto space, and I’m really pretty honest about that and calling it out. So yeah, lots going on. But for me, Bitcoin is just Bitcoin and property. For me, the two assets that really I think are going to be the best performers over the next few

Gene Tunny  31:44

years. You’re talking in Australia or Yeah, but I mean Bitcoin internationally. Oh, sorry,

Ben Simpson  31:49

yeah, Australia for property and then Bitcoin internationally. Yeah, gotcha.

Gene Tunny  31:53

Okay. So where can people follow you? Is the best place to follow you? On YouTube?

Ben Simpson  32:00

Yeah, YouTube, if you like video content, just go to Ben Simpson on YouTube. If you’re on Instagram, I put up in like, shorter form content. I put content up on Instagram. I always have my own crypto podcast called called Ben and Berg’s. If you like podcast, yeah. And then we also do a newsletter as well. So if you like email, you can head over to collective shift. There’s a newsletter button at the top, and we send, like, a weekly, weekly digest of what’s going on. So depending on the medium I’m pretty much on all them, I better

Gene Tunny  32:25

make sure I’ve subscribed to that. I don’t think I have. Sorry about that. That’s it. That sounds like the sort of sort of thing I should subscribe to. And was it Ben and Berg? Did you say Ben and

Ben Simpson  32:35

Berg’s? Yeah, B, E, R, G, s, okay. So we do two episodes a week on crypto and again, it’s really no, no nonsense, no no, no bullshit. Is we’d like to call it just sort of giving you what you need

Gene Tunny  32:49

to know. Oh, that’s good. I like that. Your final question that just occurred to me with this defy with the decentralized finance, how disruptive could that be to the traditional banks. So the big four banks in Australia here, for example. I mean, is this something that they should be they should be concerned about?

Ben Simpson  33:08

Yeah, I don’t think it will ever take over the bank stream like I think the reality is that, you know, you look at the big four banks that are probably the biggest companies in Australia, right? You know, I don’t think a lot of people are going to turn away from this, because you need some level of of skill set with defi, but I believe it’s a it’s a better model where you’re not paying the middle person. You know, look how much money Comm, bank and ANZ are making. Like it’s obscene, right? They make all these fees, and it goes to shareholders. And, you know, I understand business as business, but, you know, with a decentralized model, there is no middleman. You don’t have to pay some person in the middle just because they were there. All that money and value can stay within, you know, a peer to peer environment. And, you know, those things already existing. I can take out a loan tomorrow. I can basically take my bitcoin, and I can go and take a collateralized loan out. So I can go and put up, let’s say, $10,000 a Bitcoin, and I can, I can lend out against that Bitcoin as a collateralized loan, so I don’t have to sell my bitcoin, and I can cash flow it without selling it. And that idea, I think, is only going to continue to grow, where people can stay within the crypto ecosystem and not have to go to banks, to go and to finance different activities, you know, loans, mortgages, whatever it might be. So, yeah, I think it’s very disruptive. How long is it going to take to disrupt? Who knows? But yeah, I like that space

Gene Tunny  34:27

right? And now there’s some good companies here in Australia, or are they mainly in the US doing this? There’s

Ben Simpson  34:33

one or two in Australia. We work with a company called Block earner. They’re not purely defi. They’re more of just a lending company, a pure defi company that I’m invested in, that’s in from Australia, is called maple, Maple finance. Oh, yeah, M, A, P, L, E, and yeah. They’re probably one of the largest defi providers in the space, founded out of Sydney. So yeah, a pretty cool project. And go check out as well.

Gene Tunny  34:59

Good one. Okay. Hey, Ben, it’s been terrific. Anything else before we wrap up? No, that’s it, mate. Thanks

Ben Simpson  35:03

so much for having me. Gene and yeah, if anyone wants some some help, we also do some free, like, just a free 30 minute call. If you’re thinking about getting into crypto or you need some help, you can jump on a call with one of our team, and we can help you out. Just head over to our website, which is just Google collective shift. And yeah, we’ll see what,

Gene Tunny  35:19

how we can help. Yeah, that’s terrific. I mean it, it sounds like, yeah, you’re coming from the right place. And my, my next door neighbor at what? So in in Brisbane, Thomas, he’s well aware of you. So he’s, he gives you the big tick of approval. So, well, I’ll put links in the show notes to you all the to your to your website and to your podcast and YouTube. Ben has been terrific. I’ve really enjoyed the conversation. Thanks,

Ben Simpson  35:46

Gene, thanks for having me. Man, bye.

Credits

Thanks to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Exploring Investment Opportunities in 2024 and Beyond, w/ Will Nutting, Nutstuff  – EP219

Show host Gene Tunny interviews former investment banker Will Nutting, who runs the investment newsletter “Nutstuff”, to discuss emerging investment opportunities in 2024 and beyond. Will explains how he focuses on unloved areas like coal, uranium and cannabis that many investors overlook. He also emphasizes the importance of factoring geopolitical risks into investments and outlines opportunities that he sees in gold, Bitcoin, distressed debt, and investments in Russia. Will discusses how paying attention to geopolitics can provide an investment edge and outlines his process for gathering insights from his extensive network. Please note that the discussion is meant to provide general information and not specific investment advice.

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored.

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcasts and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest Will Nutting

Will is the Founder and CEO of Nutstuff, a no-nonsense, investment newsletter with 2K+ subscribers, including CEOs and CFOs of some of the world’s biggest financial institutions, founders of the most exciting startups, investors at the highest performing funds across private and public markets, and HNWIs.

Will has been writing about and investing in markets since the 1990s, focusing on U.S. and global equities, and has had the good fortune to interact with and exchange ideas with many smart investors.

What’s covered in EP219

  • Investment banking, media analysis, and providing a better perspective. (1:59)
  • Geopolitics, equity research, and market trends. (7:32)
  • Potential peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine. (13:24)
  • Geopolitical tensions, global debt, and the future of Western nations. (16:53)
  • Investment strategies and geopolitical risks. (22:51)
  • Energy policy, ESG investing, and the future of fossil fuels. (28:31)
  • Investing in various market caps, including small and mid-cap stocks. (34:01)
  • Crypto investing and market trends. (36:29)
  • Geopolitics, investing, and global markets. (42:30)
  • Investing in distressed debt and real estate. (47:29)

Takeaways

  • Will Nutting believes opportunities exist in unloved areas like coal, uranium, offshore drilling, and cannabis/marijuana stocks.
  • Geopolitical risks like those in Ukraine, the Middle East, and China/Taiwan need to be factored into investments. 
  • Distressed debt could provide opportunities if the economic situation deteriorates.
  • Will is positioning for 2024 by focusing on gold, Bitcoin, commodities producers, and select technology companies.

Links relevant to the conversation

Will Nutting’s newsletter Nutstuff:

https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/

Transcript: Exploring Investment Opportunities in 2024 and Beyond, w/ Will Nutting, Nutstuff  – EP219

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Will Nutting  00:04

But the people who actually can open their eyes and go and look at what’s going on in the world, there’s, there’s never been a more exciting time to my mind to make money in equity markets.

Gene Tunny  00:16

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, in this episode, I sit down with former investment banker will Nutting who runs the nuts stock newsletter, who shares his views and where he sees opportunities emerging in 2024. And beyond. Among other things, we talk about gold, uranium, Bitcoin, distressed debt, and even about investments in Russia. You’ll hear Will’s Frank and fearless perspectives on markets and about how paying attention to geopolitics can give investors an edge. What I really like about Will is that he’s contrarian in an intelligent way. As always, when we’re talking about investments, this is all meant to be general information only rather than specific investment or financial advice. If you have any thoughts on what will Orion have to say in this episode, or if you have any ideas about how I can improve the show, then please get in touch. You’ll find my contact details in the show notes. Right. Oh, let’s get into it. I hope you enjoy my conversation with will nothing will not end. Thanks for joining me on the programme. Absolutely. Pleasure. Great to be here. Excellent. Well, well, you’re the author of the nuts, staff newsletter and what are you doing in your newsletter? You’re surveying the global economy, are you?

Will Nutting  01:58

Well, listen, I mean, that stuff started when I worked in their world of investment banking, or well, the broking on the investment banking side. And I got sick to death of ultimately having to retranslate unintelligible conclusion plus politically correct research. And I got to a stage whereby I just thought that the what the investment banks were producing was stuff that was doing anything but giving you an investable conclusion. And it was also perfectly hedged, that no one really came out of it, as I say, with, you know, with with a clear opinion. But I think by nature, I was always reasonably opinionated. I guess from my perspective, you know, I, when I left investment banking, I left broking at the suggestion of a few clients, I set up on my own COVID kind of hit about 12 months later. So suddenly, everybody, suddenly everybody was at home, and no one was in meetings. And that stuff really took off. And I did this as a say, when I worked inside a bunch of us investment banks. And of course, he used to put me head to head with the research departments and the heads of compliance, because very often, I was saying things that I probably shouldn’t have been saying, or I was saying them in a way that maybe I shouldn’t have been saying them. But I think we’ve, I think we’ve got to a world now where if you wake up in the morning, and you watch the BBC, or CNN or Fox, or you watch any network in Australia, and you read a national newspaper, either either, sir, that if that’s your media and your news input, you’re probably never more ignorant than you’ve been in the last 20 or 30 years as to what’s really going on in the world. And so not stuff came about as as really to try and have me doing my curated sources that I built up over 30 years where I really felt that I had a line into whether it be stuff going on in China, whether it be stuff going on in Ukraine, whether it be stuff going on in the Middle East, whether it be stuff going on in markets, I felt that if I had a curated bunch of contacts, who I knew themselves was much of truth seekers as I was, we will be able to put together a network or a platform whereby when we discuss subjects, and we try to do a curated narrative of the market, what’s going on in the market, where the world is going, why things are actually even happening in the world today, which we can talk about. When you got out the other end, you’ve got something that was readable. And that kind of connected the real world and the financial world. And so if you were sitting at home, trying to run your portfolio, or you’re time poor, and you’re trying to run your business, and you’re having a quick look at your investments, when you end up sitting down with a guy that manages your money or you end up sitting down with yourself managing your own money, you actually have a tool that hits your inbox a couple of times a week that actually really points out some of the anomalies but it also does the so what on markets because you know, we can talk about all this stuff and you know, if we woke up tomorrow Morning, I found that we had a, we had a peace treaty in Ukraine. We had a ceasefire in Ukraine. I guess the key question to ask is, how does that make you think differently about portfolios positioning? What would you own? What would you sell? Probably more importantly, and how would that change your bias as to how you would look into 2024? So I get a lot of this kind of stuff, you know, and as I say, it’s not just me, I have some extraordinarily talented and interesting inputs, which is to say, I’ve built up over nearly 30 years of doing this.

Gene Tunny  05:30

Gotcha. Okay. Just a couple of questions based on that will, which investment banks have you worked for or worked with?

Will Nutting  05:42

So I was so I know, I started my life at Fleming’s, which was a UK or Scottish actually investment bank that got ended up being bought by JP Morgan, doing Japan, which was pretty, pretty soon after I left the military as a soldier. I then to be honest, didn’t find a natural gravitation towards Japan. And I did to the US. So then I ended up going to work for Cowen, which was a Boston based investment, and they got bought by sock Jen. And then I went from Cowan, to, to Bank of America, while to Montgomery, actually, which ended up being bought by Bank of America. That was a West Coast technology house. And we did a lot of West Coast, West Coast growth, sort of growth, investing. And then I went from Bank of America, Lehman. And then I was at Lehman for five and a half years, I thankfully left before they disappeared in a puff of smoke. And I ended up in two or three other investment banks. So the last one I ended up doing was, was a steeple. Which, which is a regional regional investment bank in the States. So I always had a big bias to the US. But in a lot of the global investment banks that I work for, I always realised it was a relative game. And so I would always look at, you know, whether that was the rest of the world, European, Asian, UK equivalent stock sometimes to play a similar theme. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  07:05

gotcha. You mentioned that you thought that some of the analysis coming out of investment banks or analysis in the media is not telling you the full story. And you thought you could add, you could provide a better perspective, what do you think they’re missing? Do you have any examples of where you think that analysis has been deficient? And how have you improved on it? Do you have any examples of that? Well?

Will Nutting  07:34

Well, I think there’s, I think there’s a whole bunch of different areas. The first one, I would say, is that, I think a lot of the alpha that you can make, and maybe this isn’t necessarily Alpha inside the big index positions in markets, but a lot of the pure equity alpha you can make, you can make from frankly, just being contrarian and being brave. And so an example I would have of that as we were looking at the the, the sort of the craziness in ESG and the illogicality of a lot of the s ESG. Well, three years ago, and we picked up on a big theme and coal. There were no investment banks had coal analysts anymore, in the same way that hardly any investment banks, heavy heavy cannabis or marijuana analysts anymore. And we looked at an opportunity in coal, we saw how small the market capitalizations were, and we thought these companies and these stocks are not going anywhere. All they’re doing below the radar screen is paying down debt. And they’re ludicrously cheap. They’re ludicrously unloved. And when everyone hates something, it must go up. And when everyone loves something, it must go down. So it was a simple investment metric of becoming quite well known for doing a lot of work on, on on coal stocks. So I guess, inside investment banks, there was a lack of bravery. There was a there was a cow tearing to oh, gosh, evil coal, coals bad. But the perverseness of thinking that coal is bad, but somehow lithium mining and copper mining is all done with people wrapped in cotton wool in nice fluffy places is madness. So it was the double standards of a lot of corporate policy towards which companies and which industries you can cover. So while I guess it’s the lack of bravery, and a lot of the people use the expression woke I think woke is a bit of an over simplistic way. But I think it was, as I say, it was a lot of selectivity in wanting to be seen to be doing the right thing. And I’ve always thought that, you know, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. So, that was the, that was the metric on which we started to look at some of the, you know, uncovered areas. I think just in general with equity research, you know, having a view and having an opinion, that goes against the establishment, you know, was is a very difficult thing for most people to stomach. And I obviously talked about the geopolitics and the politics quite a lot because I think it It matters as to markets today. So I got a very resolute view on Ukraine, which was behind the tragedy, there was no possible way Ukraine was was going to be was going to be Russia and a fair fight. I wrote very early, it was David and Goliath. And you know, and David had a chance against Goliath. But, you know, once he ran out of stones, you know, he was never going to be Goliath. And I think what we’ve seen, even in the last 24 hours, with with Putin has been a lightning flash visit to to, to Abu Dhabi, and now in Saudi is the ramifications of that are that, you know, the world is completely and utterly misread what has gone on in Ukraine and where that’s going to go. So I think that’s obviously something that, you know, as we’ve been very resolute on the Middle East, to be honest, I’ve, I’ve stood back from. But the somatic that I’ve had for the last two and a half years, was a world of a rise of the oppressed and the revenge of the colonised. And I guess that was my sense that we were in a three to five year secular move, where the West has got all the entitlements, and all the debt, and all the arrogance, and the emerging markets. And the global South, because of the ubiquity of a lot of us technology, have had their eyes open to the fact that they’ve been oppressed and exploited by the West for many, many years. And that is gradually coming to an end. Now that has ramifications for a dollarized world that has massive ramifications for countries in Central Africa, which, you know, most people couldn’t put up, put on a map, but look at what’s going on in Niger, who suddenly woke up, you know, Mr. Macron, in France suddenly woke up one day when Niger had a coup, and realised one, the CFA franc was going to come to an end and Niger. Secondly, he was suddenly not going to end up with any uranium for his nuclear power stations. So again, that’s how the geopolitics plays into the market. And, you know, the, the ESG new energy world. So I guess, you know, they’re just a few examples of things that I kick around and look at. But as I say, the the overall sense to me is that you’ve got a bucket of market capitalization. In seven, seven US stocks, a lot of luxury stocks in Europe, a few selective stocks in the UK. And the opposite end of the market, you’ve got lots of short classes of potentially really, really exciting areas of alpha, if you’re willing to really go and kick the tires and the equity while in the equity world. And so I want to have a keeper first in the big stocks, because I think you need to do that from the perspective of staying relevant to index fund managers. But so people who actually, you know, can open their eyes and go and look at what’s going on in the world. There’s, there’s never been a more exciting time to my mind to make money in equity markets.

Gene Tunny  13:09

Right. Okay. Okay. Very good. Now, can I ask you about, you mentioned about Ukraine. And so Putin has been in the Middle East? And I think you were saying that? I can’t remember the the words exactly. But it is there going to be a peace treaty there? Or is there going to be some sort of deal cut in between Russia and Ukraine? Is that Is that what you’re suggesting? Is that going to happen? And basically, Ukraine is going to surrender some territory?

Will Nutting  13:40

I don’t know when I don’t know what my timing. My suspicion is that the timing is much sooner than anyone thinks. I think I write that the head of the US the head of the Russian military, and head of the Ukraine military both share the same Christian name, which is Valerie. I’m not I think it’s spelt in a rational way, not in a not in a Western way. But I think what I’m what I’m being told, and what I understand is that there are ongoing conversations at the moment, and they are effectively deliberating over really three things, which is, you know, the location location of talks, the way in which elections would be would be conducted. And three, who would actually well, I guess, for really, who would be the the arbitrator of that, which I think probably it would be Modi in India, Modi’s probably trod a more neutral path on Russia, Ukraine than any of the major countries. And and then I guess it’s the the nature and relationship of Ukraine with with joining NATO, but I just say I don’t, I think what we’ve ended up doing, if you think simplistically, Nixon and Kissinger spent many, many years, ensuring that China and Russia stayed well apart so that we didn’t get sandwiched in the middle. And what Mr. Biden and his friends and Mr. Johnson and everyone else have done in their wisdom is they’ve ultimately pushed the Russian bride into the arms of the Chinese bridegroom. And when you look at the reciprocity between Russia and China, and you look, I think I heard levens and gave say this, he made a very good point, which is that Russia have everything that China don’t have in China, really, the Russians don’t have. So really, the two fits together, conceptually on paper incredibly well, apart from the fact that I don’t think the natural bias for middle class Russians, is to want to go to China any more than the natural bias from it’ll cause Chinese to stay in China, I think they want to go to the west, they want to do Western things. Exactly the same thing applies in Saudi Arabia, you know, to to to people in Saudi Arabia. So I think that, what we need to do is we need to have a weenie if anyone needs to have regime change, we need a regime change in the West. And the regime change in the West needs to realise that Russia is a is a is a collection of states and countries that have 11 of the world’s 24 time zones. This is a massive, massive landmass of hugely diverse cultures, and to wish for the destruction of Russia to wish for a maimed and angry Russian buffalo is to see massive instability in the world. And so to my mind, a Western rapprochement with with Russia, is desired. And I think the to go back to The David and Goliath analogy, I think it’s very real, to my mind, that you will see more signs of of a peace treaty between Russia and new between Russia and Ukraine, I think sooner rather than later. And I always I’ve always said, and I’m not original in saying this, as you know, as soon as the money runs out, the world will move on, or, you know, middle class England and middle class America all have flagpoles. And, you know, they just it’s like a semaphore competition. You know, it’s the Ukraine flag one day, it’s the Palestinian flag the next day, the Israeli flag, the next you know, it’s who can put flags up and down. And it’s very fickle, and it’s very fast moving. And the world will move on very quickly, tragically, to to the next complex, which by the way, might be in a might be Guyana, next quarter, Venezuela, for example.

Gene Tunny  17:30

Yeah, yeah, I’ve been, I’ve been following that. Now, do you think that the West will, or the United States and Britain will try to, you know, it’ll try to repair its relationship with Russia so that it splits? It doesn’t have Russia and China in a block against it? Is that the suggestion? Is that what your is that your best?

Will Nutting  18:02

I think it goes back to the to the point, which is that if you’re sitting in the UK, you’re you’re sitting in the US, and you have a pragmatic view about where you are at in your, you know, take the Ottoman Empire kind of equivalent analysis, right. All the Holy Roman Empire, where are you? As I say, you’ve got I mean, I looked at the I was watching the the presidential debates that the leadership debates in the US last night, I mean, and the level of rudeness and offensiveness and unpleasantness it, it just plums new debt. So, you know, we live in a society now that is so disrespectful of institutions. And there’s a reason for that. The institutions have a lot to bear for that. Secondly, again, we have massive indebtedness, huge amounts of entitlement. And also, we have all the old people. And it’s an unpopular thing to say, but, you know, can we afford to continue to support, you know, the elderly populations that we do? And the answer is probably not, but no one’s willing to have that conversation, you know, politically, because it’s certainly in the UK, UK, politics is probably the same in Australia, you know, you know, the grey vote is been the vote that politicians have been trying to bribe and try and get hold on. So, for me, it’s a it’s a case of evolve or die in western case. And I’m not saying it’s in the next 12 months. But if you look at the history of the last 20 years, and look at all the conflicts that you know, we’ve been involved in, as we’ve obviously follow the US into a lot of these conflicts and in good faith. You know, that was all great when money was free. When money when we were waging a few wars in Afghanistan and places that most Americans and most Brits couldn’t put on a map. It was all great. But you suddenly take the cost of money from costing nothing to positive real rates. And you’ve got a completely and utterly different world to play with, you know? And not only are you seeing that emerging in the world of private equity, those people that, you know, that walked on water and could do no wrong, you know, look at the look at the look at the performance numbers in that industry, if you actually really break out the numbers for those funds since inception. So, when I look at it, as I say, I just think I think the world is changing. And if I was sitting there, and talking to, as I do on occasions, talk to politicians, it’s understanding that it is a case of evolve or die in many respects.

Gene Tunny  20:37

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Can I ask you about the Middle East? What? What are your thoughts on? What will happen there? Is there still a risk of a wider regional conflict involving Iran, involving other states in the Middle East?

Will Nutting  20:56

I don’t know that I have a greater perspective on this than anyone else. I mean, I was horrified by, you know, we’ve all seen the equivalency of the equivalency of what went on the seventh of October would have been, you know, the IRA in the UK, killing 9000 people, we can do all these analogies, and I’m not going to get taken down down a rabbit hole there. You know, I go back to the end of the Ottoman Empire in the in the 20s. I go back to Sykes Pico, when, you know, Frenchman, and an Englishman sat down with a crayon, probably with a glass of port and drew up the lines of the Middle East. But I guess when I stand back, and I take away, you know, go back to a time when these countries didn’t exist. And try and look at the true history of this. And then fast forward to where we are today. I think it’s incredibly difficult to see how a two state solution exists in the Middle East, and how we get to that stage. But again, I think what we’ve got to have is we’ve got to have leaders in the West, who have an interest in not accelerating and not exacerbating these conflicts. And I think we need to try and find a way of of dealing with this, you know, because the optics of the world looks at what’s going on in the Middle East. And as shocked as they are by what happened on the seventh of October. I think they’re also looking and saying maybe there is a an unacceptable civilian civilian casualty rate to the operations that are going on at the moment. So as I say, I mean, your guess is as good as mine, when it comes to Iran. I think I think the Iranian leader is I think he’s visited increasing in Moscow today. I mean, Iran seem to be, you know, seem to be very quietly, obviously playing a, you know, a very, very strong game here, you know. But as I say, I don’t want to even think about escalation at the moment. And I’m hoping that, you know, I hope that cooler heads can prevail.

Gene Tunny  22:57

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  23:32

Now back to the show. So I guess what I’m interested in well, is to what extent are you factoring in these geopolitical risks going forward, such as you know, what’s happening in Ukraine, although it sounds like that sort of, that may not be a big factor in the future, given that there could be some sort of a deal? What could happen in the Middle East? And also in China, Taiwan? Is that is that a risk? To what extent are you factoring these potential? What would you call them zones of conflict or flash points into your investment recommendations?

Will Nutting  24:19

So I run the cyber sort of this little farm, this little portfolio that I publish every Monday and it’s, it’s, it’s got a few million dollars in it, and it’s, it’s a small amount of people’s money, it’s not open to external investors, and I don’t want to be a fund manager. But what I do want to do is to see that people see that I eat my own cooking, and I reflect, you know, I reflect my my thoughts and my ideas in six or seven key Cymatics we have a macro overlay thematics we use a bunch of ETFs to ultimately just reflect where we think the interesting parts of the world are. And then obviously, we have six kind of key Cymatics like global digital infrastructure and energy But infrastructure and stuff like that. So so it’s a fairly simple logical portfolio. As I said, factoring these thematics in Yes, I do. But But conversely, we sold out of most of our US defence stocks seven or eight months ago. By way of example, you know, we still have a some exposure to, to fertiliser, so, you know, feed the world. But on the whole, you know, I don’t, you know, I’m very, I’m very selective on, you know, trying to play the kind of war in conflict trade inside equities, because I think the market gets, you know, the market gets pretty savvy with it. We still own big systems in the UK, we’ve owned, we own some dividends, Ryan Mattel in Europe. But I think, you know, if you looked at the defence stocks as an example of what you are what you asked me, I think what we’re discovering now, as even the nature of warfare is changing. And, you know, though, these defence platforms are vital and hugely important. And whether it be aircraft carriers, F 20, twos, F 30, fives, multibillion dollar incredible aircraft, you know, also low level, you know, almost analogue warfare, when it comes down to drones, etc, you know, is something that the world is waking up to, you know, I’ve got an, you know, I’ve got an aircraft carrier, and you’ve got 50,000, you know, I’ll raise you your aircraft carrier to 50,000 drones. Now, you know, I’m sure that a state of the art aircraft carrier has the technology to repel drones. But I suspect if there’s a really concerted drone strike on a on a carrier group, you could probably inflict some, some fairly cataclysmic losses. So to me things like the thick of things like the the defence sector is much more important than, Oh, gosh, we live in and we live in a world, you know, let’s just blindly go and own defence stocks, oh, gosh, we live in a high conflict world, let’s blatantly just go no, no oil stocks, you know, I prefer the capital spending infrastructure, infrastructure cycle type names, you know. So when it comes to energy, I like infrastructure, I like uranium has been a still a huge and has been a big focus of mine for the last three years. I like offshore drilling. I like the lateral businesses to offshore drilling. Where you’ve also got, you know, huge cash generation and debt being paid down and such. So we’re pretty selective actually, about how we, how we play those thematics inside portfolio. The portfolio? Yeah.

Gene Tunny  27:39

Fair enough. Can I ask you about uranium? So are you do you think we will, there’ll be a resurgence in demand or a resurgence of investment in nuclear power? Is that what you’re projecting?

Will Nutting  27:55

Uranium is? I hate you know, I hate to say things are that simple, but to my mind, uranium is the is the is that it’s, it’s a simpler supply demand story, as I’ve seen, in my 30 years of doing this, you know, you’ve got, you know, 150 100 60 million pounds of production, you know, you’ve got children terminan of demand, if you if you use an analogy of oil with those numbers, it will be the entire focus of the world on the deficit in on the deficit in oil. You know, I mean, I think it’s 25% of US electricity production comes from from from from nuclear. And also, it’s not just a case of digging uranium out of the ground, putting on a truck, driving it to a power station, and loading it into a furnace, you know, you’ve got to actually process the uranium, you’ve got to produce the fuel rods, there’s a huge bottleneck. So there’s been a complete lack of capital spending in the uranium space, because there’s been a complete lack of capital spending in the energy bridge. And I guess I want to divert to this and just say that, when you look at energy policy and energy spending, you know, I think if we were sitting down with 20 year olds or our children and explaining the world we want to get to, in terms of energy, the other side of the chasm. I think we all kind of know what that looks like with wind, wave, solar, etc. But we have to supply and we have to, we have to provide baseload power, and baseload power. When you think about the energy bridge from the Old World to the New World, is, unfortunately, a lot of fossil fuels. And it’s going to be a lot of fossil fuels for the foreseeable future, which is why met coal is still a hugely exciting space. But when it comes back to Uranium, again, uranium is an area where it is the lowest cost the lowest cost electricity apart from hydro and utilities, have completely and utterly under understood went on shoring up their supplies, and then load on that the unknown quantity of small modular reactors coming into the market. I just think you’ve got a tremendous call option. The only thing that surprised me about uranium is one, how tiny the market capitalization is. So for most index players, it’s kind of irrelevant. Don’t talk to me about uranium. I mean, I can’t even I can’t even think about it. It’s not It’s nowhere in my index benchmark, apart from Cameco, that’s about the only stock that I think has any kind of relevance to people. But I think for anyone who’s smart, and actually tries to look at where the world’s going, I’m surprised that uranium isn’t $150 upon.

Gene Tunny  30:45

Right, gotcha. Okay. Okay. And you mentioned offshore drilling. So this is consistent with your, your expectation that we’re still going to be relying on fossil fuels for several decades into the future. So I suppose that yeah, that makes sense. It is, it is. And I,

Will Nutting  31:08

when I try it, when I try to think about energy transition, and energy position and energy policy, it kind of takes me back to school prize giving. And it makes me think, you looked at me strangely, and I know

Gene Tunny  31:23

that I was just thinking, I mean, it’s a very, it’s a very British thing, isn’t it? The school, the school prizes I was thinking of? There’s a great Jeeves and Wooster story with the prizes, but we won’t divert on to that. But go ahead, go ahead.

Will Nutting  31:38

So that the words think about it is that it’s about the ESG Industry and Energy Policy, which is that, yes, the industry and the whole environmental policy, what it’s done is it’s continued to reward. The, you know, the nerdy kid at school with the pedal back pedal that crosses, he was super bright, who always won the science prize, okay, from day one, continually given the science prize. To me, that’s the green energy company, they were they started good, they stayed good. And they got even better at being good. The problem is that the most exciting and most interesting price to reward at school price giving was a really badly behaved hit the big kid who had a real presence at school, who was the badly behaved, disruptive guy who was running around making a mess everywhere, causing damage, doing bad things to other kids who suddenly became a better behaved kid. And you can then give them the price of being better behaved. So when I look at energy, and that’s the brown energy companies, that’s the occidental is that the Exxon Mobil? That’s the BPS? That’s the Australian equivalents. It’s, you know, whoever it is. And so I think, if only governments and if only investors and investment mandates could take a look at these companies and say, right, you know, what, we need to start rewarding the businesses here, that kind of do a better job of evolving, not only is it going to be a good thing to attract capital back into these companies, who can continue to invest in the energy bridge, as I, as I, as I call it, you know, but also, I think it’s, it’s just going to send the right message to the industry. So again, I I’m not, I’m not a climate denier, I’m not an ESG dislike or hater, I’m just a pragmatist. And so I think that the second wave of ESG, whatever, however it looks, that will probably evolve in the next, you know, one to five years, I think it’s going to be much more joined up thinking much more honest, and much more realistic. And so, as I say, I think you know, the cop boondoggles of the last few years, you know, the latest one we had last week, I think just I think we’ve seen Peak Peak nonsense, and I think, peaking ESG and as peak climate nonsense, dissipates, I think some really interesting investment opportunities will come out the other side of it.

Gene Tunny  33:59

Okay, okay. Very good. I liked how you described the you’re talking about the shot glasses before you wanted to have some shot glasses? What’s in your shot glasses at the moment? Well, can you give us some idea of what those those are they? Are they speculative investments, how would you describe them? Well, I

Will Nutting  34:25

think so. I guess just to paint a scenario for this. The I don’t know what the data is, but probably over 90% of equity. Investing is passive. So let them take it that it’s passive funds, it’s machines. It’s it’s quants, it’s everything else. So what’s left over at the end of the day, is either you as a retail investor or as a you know, as an active investor scrabbling around saying, Have I got an edge on Microsoft have I got an edge on? Can I come over? Do I have an edge on Palantir eran AMD versus owning and video to get my exposure to artificial intelligence. Am I the smart? Am I smart enough to have worked out that IBM as a forgotten as a forgotten cap, a technology mega cap might actually have technology, I might actually be really, really relevant to AI, I could the AI Halo suddenly shine above AB IBM, which is what you’re seeing happening at the moment, for example. Now, I talked about some of this stuff, and I write about it. And I’m hugely focused on it because it’s hugely relevant for alpha and for performance. So I view those as the kind of buckets or those the buckets of market capitalization. What’s really interesting is in small cap and mid cap world up until about three weeks ago, it was literally like all the pint mugs in the world and disappeared, you know, and it was either as I say, a bucket or as a shot class. And the shot glass is all the all the tiny stuff. So a lot of it as I say it’s uranium stocks, its offshore oil stocks. It’s, you know, the old gold stock, its coal, its special situation, things that we have an healthcare like, really interesting company called cardio that deals with the some of the aftermath of COVID vaccines with pericarditis and myocarditis. It’s a it’s a gold company that has a hidden uranium company inside it that we look at and focus on a lot. I’ve said coal already. It’s tankers, some tanker stocks, you know, if you look at what’s going on in Panama, and look at what’s going on was in potentially in the Suez Canal, you’re beginning to see new tankers are not being built. You’re now actually seeing some tankers having to go round the whole south coast of America without going through the Panama Canal. Think about what that does to day rates on tankers, etc. It’s Kryptos. I have a positive, a cynical, I 55 years old, right? So I’m kind of a middle aged, middle aged white guy, with a with a natural cynicism towards tattoos, ponytails and people talking to me about crypto. But I’ve absolutely right that we absolutely own it and invest in it. And and I think that some really interesting, fascinating trends. And the final thing I can say to you, is we also cannabis and marijuana stocks, which remind me of kind of coal in 2020. We have we have some positions there as well. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  37:25

yeah. Very good. With the crypto. You mentioned that there are some trends that you’re you’re excited about, what are those with crypto?

Will Nutting  37:37

Well, I think to be to be positive about to be really positive about crypto, and to ripoff, the, the the cynicism that you see out there of it doesn’t really solve any problem. It’s, you know, it’s it’s the currency of criminals and perverts and, and, you know, weirdos, I think you have to get your head out of the developed West and go into emerging markets and go to the spec is done Korea, Stan, you know, and actually see how people use crypto see how people are entirely comfortable with having crypto wallets, see how people use crypto as as accurate as a security for loans in the same way that, you know, crowd funding has worked in the West. And so as I say, I think when I look at the risk reward on crypto when I look at Kryptos, entire market cap still being about 1/10 out of gold. And I look at the usability of crypto and how I see crypto developing that usability. And I think I’m right saying there’s 22 about 22,600 Different Kryptos but 53 or 54% of Kryptos market cap is basically and effectively Bitcoin and Aetherium you know, so to me, I think, you know, if you don’t own Bitcoin, or you don’t own Aetherium, or synthetics or any kind of defy plays, and you’re sitting in front of grown up investors, I think you better have a really, really good reason why you don’t you better own lots of gold as an alternative. And I’d suggest that if you actually get on a plane and go and travel to the global South, the parts of the world that are growing really fast, with dynamic young populations, without old people without entitlement, and with no debt. You’ll come back feeling a whole bunch more about crypto than you would if you’re sitting in your office in Mayfair or Washington.

Gene Tunny  39:42

Yeah, yeah. Okay. Okay. Now, what’s your process for, for getting these insights? So you mentioned you’ve got a you’ve got an extensive network, have you got a team working for you?

Will Nutting  39:55

So we have I mean, we, in terms of kind of, you know, full time employees as basically as effectively, we’re pretty much a team of two in terms of actually running the business on a day to day basis. But I have about five people who some are all clients of mine, some of the people I’ve known for many years, who, on the whole, we’re all super successful, overtired. And all living in interesting parts of the world, and all doing really interesting things. But also, they massively wanted to keep their head, their head in the game in terms of markets, and macro and geopolitics, something else. And so what happens is that, you know, a little bit like having a research department, you know, if I want to, if I want to look at global video games, or I want to look at Coal, I want to look at tankers. I have my own go to sources where I would go to, you know, we’re not writing, probably writing a five page report. To my mind, what I’m trying to do, and that stuff is to make people question make, make, make people think, on occasions, make people laugh, and try and make or save your money. And so these sources, and these, these people that kind of work with us, our partners, if you like, are just incredibly useful as one as kind of sounding boards, but also as amazing sources of perspective and information. And, you know, they are on the whole, you know, in some respects, just trying to do what I’m trying to do, which is to home, you know that that truth seekers they are. And they’re, they’re realists and pragmatists in terms of how they look at the world. So we have, you know, regular conference calls, we have regular brainstorming sessions every week. And so I have a really good, experienced team that I kind of a second check on me. And on occasions, you know, we’ll sit on a call and I’ll go on, am I completely off the wall on this on? Am I am I? Am I mad thinking, thinking about this in this way? You know, how? And then the other question, I guess I ask is, how consensus? Am I is everyone else talking about this? Because if everyone else is talking about something, or everyone else is focused on something, you know, I don’t want to be the last guy at the party drinking the mind sweeping the drinks, you know, you know, I want to be the kind of first guy at the party and I don’t really mind if, you know, I’ve got to make small talk with, you know, with the granny, you know, until the fun people turn up. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  42:18

Okay. And so who’s your newsletter pitch that will? So I mean, you mentioned like, you’ve got high net worth individuals. Like, who would who’s going to benefit from this?

Will Nutting  42:33

I think it’s, you know, it’s pitched at it? Well, when you look at the content of it, it’s got a bit of everything for everybody, because it’s got some thought provoking stuff on the geopolitics side, it’s got some real world stuff that, you know, I just pick up from people sending stuff to me, and, you know, I scrape batter, you know, meet other media stuff and such, like, you know, but on the whole, if you’re time poor, if you’re intellectually curious, if you have to look at markets, or you have to look, or you have an interest in understanding how the real world meets the financial world, and how that looks, it’s really pitched to anyone in that environment. So, you know, we have anyone from one of the most respected, macro hedge fund managers in the world, who uses it as a, as a real world check. You know, if you, if you sit inside a big New York hedge fund, for example, you know, 90% of your employees probably going to chauffeur driven car to work, they get a chauffeur driven car home, you know, they, half of them were a lot of them fly privately, you know, they have restaurant quality food delivered to their desk. And, you know, it’s such like, most of them don’t even ever look out the window, and actually go and look at what’s going on in the world, you know? And so we’re kind of a reality check. We’re a real world reality check as to look at this. Have you thought about that? And as I say, Well, anyone who receives that stuff really, as somebody who’s who’s intellectually curious, and all we’re trying to do, I think, is to make people feel and look a little bit smarter about a whole bunch of subjects. And the process. What I love about it is there’s a huge reciprocity, which is that peep, I get a normal amount of feedback from people. And so if I’m really, if I’m really taking an aggressive stance on something political or geopolitical or something about the market, you know, it’s very interesting to me to know how much pushback I get and who gives me that pushback. But as I say, it’s a hugely broad church from some of the most respected entrepreneurs and investors in the world family offices, but also I have a lot of people’s kids, you know, who’ve left university who’ve been given their first, you know, 20 or 20 or 30 grand, they’ve just started an equity portfolio. And they’re trying to work out, you know, they’re understanding the power of compounding mathematics, and they’re trying to work out what they should own and what they shouldn’t own.

Gene Tunny  45:02

Okay, so it sounds like it is not necessarily out of the out of reach for people who aren’t hedge fund managers, then I’ll put a link in the show notes to it so people can check out the details. Gene, our

Will Nutting  45:19

system is, you know, we give people a month free or whatever it is. And, you know, as I say, I mean, it’s 85 pounds a month is a meaningful, it’s a meaningful investment for a new for, for a letter. But it’s not a newsletter. It’s a facts, ideas and conclusions letter. And so it really does drill down to and give you investable conclusions. And that’s one of the reasons why I think, you know, we charge what we charge is because if you make frankly, one decent investment decision that it pays for itself, you know, hand over fist.

Gene Tunny  45:51

Gotcha. Okay, as global focus, so you’d have a focus on East Asia and Australia. global budget of global focus.

Will Nutting  45:59

Absolutely. And one of the reasons I travel as much as I do, is because I go to, I mean, I can’t tell you how many countries I’ve been to this year. But you know, Namibia and Africa, South Africa, Mozambique. I’ve been all over the stands as Becca Stein, Craig iStan, I’ve been to Panama, I’ve been to Colombia, just to name a few. And when I go there, I don’t just go there to lie on a beach. I go there, and I meet people who run, you know, I’ve wandered around the office base port, the guy who, who, who runs the port in Valencia, Spain, Namibia, understanding what’s going on with oil discovery and infrastructure in the energy and oil business in southwestern Africa. You know, I went and met the guys who run all the all the power transmission business in Namibia as well. And understanding that relationship with what’s going on with South Africa and their power problems in South Africa. So we really do go and meet and try and understand what’s going on in places. And then I’m just looking for those nuggets of interesting stuff to explain to other people why and how those things are happening, but also looking for investment opportunities.

Gene Tunny  47:10

Okay, okay. Very good. Final question. Well, 2020 24, what are you expecting? What do you think? Do you have any ideas on what the what big developments there will be? What are you? How are you positioning yourself for 2024?

Will Nutting  47:28

So I think 2024 if I’m, if I’m, if I’m right, I think there’s a there’s a slim chance that we get an acceleration in in a past acceleration in inflation. But on the whole I, I’m hoping I’m hoping and thinking that the current escalation that we’ve seen in kind of geopolitics comes down. I don’t see China, escalating with Taiwan, I think quite the opposite. So I see some rapprochement of some of the geopolitics. But I also see a big drive to nationalisation. So I think, you know, countries are increasingly going to be looking after themselves, you know, there’s going to be an anti Davos psychology to most to most countries, you know, I think we’re going to be going through this huge election cycles. So I think that’s huge election cycles is going to feed that I think it’s going to feed economic nationalism. You know, when it comes to, you know, I think gold will go higher, I think Bitcoin will go higher. I think Russia will potentially be a really fascinating investment. I think coal alongside uranium will still be great investments, I think oil arguably will still be a very good investment as well. So on the whole I’m still focused on kind of the bottom end of Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs pyramid and less focused on the top you know, not saying okay, not saying that we are going to have some incredibly good opportunities and technology and I’m absolutely not the guy tried to write off artificial intelligence. But I do worry that the seven big technology companies in the world it for entitled indebted West that needs to cut debt I do worry that they are such serial underpay as of tax that the potential opportunity for for tax rates to have to go up materially inside these big technology companies. I think to me is a big concern.

Gene Tunny  49:35

Yeah, gotcha. Okay. Okay. Right. Oh, we will not own anything else before we wrap up. This has been terrific. I love your insights into being contrarian how you can benefit from it. I mean, not I mean being contrarian in an intelligent way. I think often there’s a lot of you know, there is contrarian ism and as may not be helpful, but I think you can In contrary and in an intelligent way, and I think you’ve demonstrated that with some very good examples. Any other points before we wrap up?

Will Nutting  50:09

No, I think if I was sitting talking to young people in school, and I didn’t want to talk and kind of financial language, I’d say, I think the kind of the, the Anglo Saxon world needs to get back to its its culture, and its balance, and its realism. And its focus. And I think we need to focus on getting back to our traditional strengths. And I think what’s interesting is, that’s what Russia and China are doing. And I think that when we stand back, and we look at how we’re going to navigate this next very difficult period, you know, of multiculturalism, and everyone having a phone, everyone having an opinion, everyone’s seeing what’s going on in the world unfolding on a daily basis on a screen, you know, I think we’re gonna have to go back to basics, and I think it’s going back to basics in society. And when it comes to investing, it’s going back to basics and investing, which is, you know, free cash flow, you know, you know, low leverage, and me as a shareholder, and an equity holder, getting returns. And if I’m looking at the toxic areas of the market, it’s probably going to be a world where where, you know, distressed debt is going to be a fascinating opportunity. And as well as I think, you know, global macro, it’s not going to be private equity. And it’s probably given its and it’s probably not going to be bonds. But I mean, I’ll let the bond I’ll let that I’ll let the bond guys pontificate on that.

Gene Tunny  51:38

Gotcha. Just before we go, What do you mean, what were you driving out exactly with distressed debt? There? was so I mean, I think what do you have in mind

Will Nutting  51:47

that if I started today, if I, if I started today, I listened to a podcast, um, yesterday with the head of Blackstone’s real estate business, and a lot of the fat not understanding really any of the language that she uses. She sounded to me like, you know, she’d been schooled in the same school that the principles of, of Harvard and Penn University have been schooled in, which is seen in all the news worlds, and I was 20. For us. You know, I, I think that the, the opportunities that have been unlocked in the next two years, as retail investors are kind of locked in the church and, and set fire to, as they have opportunities to go and buy the retail charges of the these big private equity firms offer distressed offerings. I think that if you’re sitting there with a big pile of cash, the opportunity to go and buy, you know, cheap UK assets. But the same way, I think the opportunity to go and buy exposure to very cheap real estate assets is going to be huge. The question for me is, do you want to own the equity? Or do you want to own the debt, and I suspect being as high up the capital structure as possible is where you want to be. And he probably needs it, and you probably want to get paid to wait. So I’m going to imagine that I think the debt side is more interesting than the equity side. Okay,

Gene Tunny  53:12

okay. Gotcha. Right. Oh, well, not. This has been fascinating. I really appreciate your insights. I will put a link in the show notes to not stuff and yeah, I encourage. If you’re listening in the audience, and you like what we’ll have to say, then yeah, definitely check that out. I think it’s, it sounds like you got a great process. There will end. Yeah, I really enjoyed your insight. So thanks so much again, for your time. Obviously,

Will Nutting  53:42

we can sign you know, we can we can sign people up for it. We give people a month or a couple of months for free. And you know, that we can work on that basis. But listen, thanks so much. Really, really enjoyed it.

Gene Tunny  53:53

Excellent. Thanks so much. Well, alright.

Will Nutting  53:55

Thanks a lot.

Gene Tunny  53:58

rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

54:45

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com.

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Categories
Podcast episode

Digital Money Demystified w/ Prof. Tonya Evans – EP216

Professor Tonya Evans is the author of the new book “Digital Money Demystified: Go from Cash to Crypto Safely, Legally, and Confidently.” She discusses the topic of cryptocurrency with show host Gene Tunny. Professor Evans argues there are many myths surrounding digital assets, including their association with criminal activity and extreme volatility. She aims to dispel these myths and provide readers with a more accurate understanding of cryptocurrencies. Professor Evans is distinguished professor at Penn State Dickinson Law and a leading expert in intellectual property and new technologies. Please note this episode is for general information only and does not constitute financial or investment advice.

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcasts and Spotify.

About Professor Tonya M. Evans

Dr. Tonya M. Evans is a distinguished professor at Penn State Dickinson Law and a leading expert in intellectual property and new technologies. With a prestigious 2023 EDGE in Tech Athena Award, she is highly sought-after as a keynote speaker and consultant. Her expertise spans blockchain, entrepreneurship, entertainment law, and more.

As a member of international boards and committees, including the World Economic Forum/Wharton DAO Project Series, Dr. Evans remains at the forefront of cutting-edge research. She recently testified before the House Financial Services Committee and the Copyright Office and USPTO to advise on the intellectual property law issues related to NFTs and blockchain technology.

What’s covered in EP216

  • [00:05:31] Prudent crypto investing according to Prof. Evans.
  • [00:09:18] Crypto scams.
  • [00:13:18] Peer-to-peer technology.
  • [00:17:34] Taxing crypto assets.
  • [00:22:45] Central bank digital currencies.
  • [00:29:13] Exchanging value without government support.
  • [00:38:17] The currency of outer space.
  • [00:41:10] Self-custody and centralized exchanges.
  • [00:47:48] “Not your keys, not your crypto.”
  • [00:49:17] Underrepresentation in the crypto ecosystem.
  • [00:54:07] Learning the language of crypto.
  • [00:59:47] Tracking Bitcoin transactions.
  • [01:01:57] The speed of prosecuting crypto fraud.

Links relevant to the conversation

Amazon page for Digital Money Demystified:

https://www.amazon.com.au/Digital-Money-Demystified-Crypto%C2%AE-Confidently-ebook/dp/B0BVP8GPF8

Regarding a spot Bitcoin ETF, Yahoo Finance reported on 28 November 23 that “Crypto investors are awaiting Security & Exchange Commission (SEC) approval for a spot bitcoin ETF, which could unlock a surge of capital investment in the crypto space.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bitcoin-may-reach-57k-over-175421720.html

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Binance:https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1926

Transcript: Digital Money Demystified w/ Prof. Tonya Evans – EP216

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. We then used a human application, Tim Hughes from Adept Economics, to exercise his primitive brain and see if he could successfully hunt down mondegreens. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording

Tonya Evans  00:03

Now we have web three where not only are we exchanging messages of information, packets of information. Now those packets are about value. It gets at the heart of even why governments tax, particularly in times of war, etc, and to protect borders that are now being threatened by a borderless currency.

Gene Tunny  00:32

Welcome to the Economics Explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory, evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show.

Hello, and welcome to the show. In this episode, I talked about cryptocurrency with the author of a new book on the topic. The book is “Digital Money Demystified” and the author is Professor Tonya Evans from Dickinson Law at Pennsylvania State University. Among her many achievements, Professor Evans was a 2021 Forbes over 50 listee in the investment category. She’s on the board of directors of Digital Currency Group and she’s testified before a congressional committee on digital assets. In other words, she knows what she’s talking about on crypto. This episode was recorded in mid November 2023. Please check out the show notes for any important developments since then, particularly for any news about spot Bitcoin ETFs that may have happened. I should note that one big thing that’s happened since the interview is Binance and its CEO pleading guilty to criminal charges for anti money laundering and US sanctions violations. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said “it’s willful failures allowed money to flow to terrorists, cyber criminals and child abusers through its platform.” As always, if you have thoughts on this episode, or other episodes or ideas for future episodes, please get in touch. I’d love to hear your thoughts on crypto, positive or negative. What do you think about Professor Evans defence of crypto against the major criticisms that it faces? Has she changed your mind on crypto? What about the recent news about Binance or SBF before that? Please let me know what you think after listening to the episode. Let’s get into it. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Professor Tonya Evans on crypto.

Professor Tonya Evans, welcome to the programme.

Tonya Evans  02:42

Thank you, Gene. Thank you so much. I’ve been looking forward to this. So I’m happy to, happy to chat about my favourite topic.

Gene Tunny  02:49

Oh very good yes. You’re certainly passionate about it, I’ve been reading your book over, well the last two nights. It’s, it’s an easy to read book. And I got through it in in two sittings on my Kindle. So well done on that. So yes, your book is Digital Money Demystified from go from cash to crypto safely, legally and confidently. To start off with, what do you think needs to be demystified about digital money? Or in other words, what motivated you to write this book?

Tonya Evans  03:26

Yeah, this it’s interesting because I do so many speaking engagements, obviously, as a not only as a law professor, which is kind of a different exercise in exploring things. I know, we’ll get into some regulatory stuff later. But at a higher level, there’s so much misinformation about the nature of the assets, why they even exist, what types there are, how they’re different. Some of the most common myths that I constantly explore and help people to right size include the level of crypto involvement in criminal activity, which is actually quite low. The nature of volatility, and the the existence of volatility is not the myth. This is a nascent asset class. And so, obviously, it’s very volatile. So when I compare crypto as a nascent asset class to earlier developments of assets like the stock exchange, for example, we go back to the 30s and Buttonwood and the volatility that was involved, so many things going on behind the scenes that people weren’t aware of. And that was very problematic when you think about the asymmetry of information which is often extremely problematic in the finance lane. You really need to have the transparency and accessibility for an open market. Otherwise you don’t have an open market and people are left to their own devices. People are investing in things when they don’t have all of the information. And so that’s what made it really interesting for me to 1) start to study the area, but 2) to make sure that people understood the existing system, how crypto assets and blockchain technology actually changed that. And kind of where we go from here. As you can tell, the book is not an argument. For someone to absolutely buy crypto, I still leave that up to the person, but I want them to have a more informed body of information to draw from so that they can actually make good choices. One of the ways that I like to explain it is to say, you can actually be a prudent crypto investor, which sounds like an oxymoron. It’s like prudent and crypto investing, how do those things go together, but people are afraid of what they don’t understand. And the reality is, and we will continue to talk about this in our conversation. This technology is here, not just as a matter of Bitcoin and Etherium, and some of the other coins, but every major, not major, but every country is looking at its own version of digital currency in the form of central bank digital currencies. We have FedNow which is not in and of itself a cryptocurrency. But it’s kind of like the the framework or the platform for digital assets that I believe, my personal opinion, the government would not have this official statement today. But three to five years from now, we’ll look back on this moment in time, where FedNow, the rails, the frameworks to enable digital asset transmission, I believe will be the precursor to a central bank digital currency in the United States. And finally, when I think about the various investment products that will become available, probably, I’m pretty conservative so I would say at the beginning of 2024, we will see an exchange traded fund specifically for Bitcoin, probably 12 to 18 months after that, for Etherium. This will be an investment product that is available to investors, and also the professionals, the financial advisors that have to make sense of this, the CPAs the lawyers. So for all of these reasons, at least demystifying the space so that people don’t fall victim to the clickbait and the sensational headlines, some of which are horrible. I, there is no place for criminal activity, Sam Bankman-Fried is going to enjoy a lot of time in jail. I’m absolutely for that. But you know, that is one small part of a larger ecosystem where the great majority is used for legitimate not nefarious purposes. So for all those reasons, I just think it’s important that people level up their, their understanding, you see from the book, The glossary of terms, just helping to demystify and understand so that people will lean into the education piece to decide then if this is something that they want to add to their profession, or their portfolio.

Gene Tunny  08:04

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So you mentioned the glossary of terms just then I think that’s one of the standout features of the book. So yeah good work on that. Professor Evans, could you just explain the difference between some of these scams until, I read your your book, I didn’t appreciate the difference between an exit scam and a rug pull. So I hear about rug pulls all the time on Coffeezilla’s channel on YouTube, could, are you able to go over what those different crypto scams are and what to watch out for? Please?

Tonya Evans  08:40

Yeah they’re quite close, right. So it’s the difference of having a team that from the beginning, knows that they are going to turn the lights off at some point, they’re gonna, you know, pump up the price, get a lot of enthusiasm. And their goal from the beginning is to scam people out of their money, right, and to set the market conditions in order to get the highest price possible to leave others downstream holding the bag. Right, as opposed to someone that at least in the beginning, has some good intention and realises at some point in time, it’s not going well. And that people who have invested fall into what we talked about earlier about not having all the information. So you have a key some key decision makers that still have an influence on a project. Oftentimes, it’s not built yet. So they have grand plans, they have a roadmap, they might have a white paper, but at a certain point they run out of gas and they disappear with everyone’s money and all of a sudden you can’t find them anymore, closely aligned but so it’s more of the intentionality from the beginning. But the end result is a lot of people get caught holding the bag.

Gene Tunny  09:51

Right so the exit scam is where there’s that intentionality at the beginning is that right and the rug pull is yeah, we stuffed up let’s just try and get out of it. And yeah well…

Tonya Evans  10:01

That’s right, that’s right.

Gene Tunny  10:05

Bad luck investors. Okay. Righto, so you’re a Gen X law professor right? So I think I read that in the book. So you’re same generation is me and I often feel I’m probably, if I was five years younger, I probably would have got massively into crypto, but I was probably, at the start of it, I was a bit sceptical of it. How did you become like, as a lawyer, as a law professor, how did you become interested in crypto in the first place?

Tonya Evans  10:34

I had a friend who was getting an advanced degree in the future of media and kind of the intersection of media and new technologies. And to take a step back, I actually am primarily an intellectual property lawyer, and law professor, I just actually celebrated my 25th reunion from Howard University School of Law. So I’ve been around for a minute, I practiced law for 10 years before I even started teaching. And now as a recovering practitioner, also known as a law professor. And I get to lean in to things normatively, how they should be rather than day to day kind of practically what they are, right? That’s really the transition from representing clients to informing law as it’s being developed. And so I was very interested in the work that she was doing at the intersection of media and blockchain. I had heard of Bitcoin at the time, this was in 2017. Bitcoin was first launched in January of 2009. So it had been around for some time, but was really relegated to the fringes of cypher, the cypherpunk movement, mostly those kind of tech men, mostly with a technology, technology background, and also in finance, and kind of like this microcosm of two microcosms is the area of cryptocurrency. So mainstream adoption or even awareness just wasn’t a thing at that time. And also, as you mentioned, I’m a lawyer. I’m licenced to practice law in four states, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and DC, I am highly revered. In my profession, I have no intention of losing my licence. And so trying to make sense of this magic internet money was not something that, that I was at all interested in at the time. But what I was interested in is her discussions around the underlying technology that was organising financial data, the transactions and the balances in a very novel way, using existing technologies. But again, organised in a novel way. So what were the technologies, are the technologies? Cryptography, which is the encrypted messaging that has been around in some form or fashion, quite frankly, for millennia, obviously, it’s digital now. But the idea of going from point A to point B, or sending a message, often in times of war and other areas, the ability to send to encrypt and decrypt messaging was critically important. But that’s been around for forever, then we have peer to peer technology. So as an IP lawyer, I’m also interested in this part, because when I first learned about peer to peer technology, it was gonna, you know, upend the media, ecosystem, and that entire industry was going to fall because you and I could be in completely different places but I could send you a perfect digital copy of a media file, and then go on the internet and send it to 1000 of my not-so-closest friends without exhausting the original. So I guess that was great if you wanted to share music, not so great for the music industry, but for everybody else. But obviously, if you are doing that with money that runs into the double spend problem, where, you know, I can say I have $100 in the bank to send it to you and also to Susan, and the first person to cash that check is the one who wins that is that’s not going to work for money. So the novel way of using cryptography, peer to peer technology, the internet, and then a novel way of coming to agreement, we would call it we call this the consensus mechanism of coming to agreement where I don’t have to trust you, but I trust a software that is pre-coded with the rules of engagement. It’s open source software, which is also lends itself to copyright, to patent areas of interest as an intellectual property attorney, where I was like, Well, I have to figure that out. I have to let my students know that this is something that is changing the nature of intellectual property. And it doesn’t, it didn’t seem at the time that I needed to also fundamentally understand cryptographically secure digital assets. But I fell down the rabbit hole, it was quickly apparent that understanding the technology I need needed to understand the nature of the assets that were being validated, verified and secured. In this type of news decentralised database, I didn’t have any appreciation for all that language at the time. But being drawn in, in my existing area of expertise, I think was the best way for me to be intellectually curious, and to really learn more.

Gene Tunny  15:31

Gotcha. And are there many legal cases? Is there much litigation regarding crypto?

Tonya Evans  15:38

What we’re seeing now involves, the short answer is yes. Now, but mostly at the federal and state levels against federal or state regulators and various parties or, or stakeholders, participants in crypto. I don’t know if you have a lot of them in terms of the actual number but the import of of actions with the SEC, the Security Exchange, Securities Exchange Commission against some of the big ones we have coinbase, we have the ripple case with ripple is a network that has a native token called XRP. That has been tied up for a long time until recently, when a federal court said that the SEC led by Gary Gensler had really overstepped the boundaries of their regulatory power. The way that reg, regulatory bodies in the executive actually get their power is it’s delegated from Congress. So an agency can only do as much as they are empowered to do by their enabling legislation. And the federal court said that the SEC overstepped its bounds actually making it the, clearing the pathway I should say, for those spot, Bitcoin exchange traded funds or ETFs, that are likely to be approved begrudgingly by the SEC, in my humble opinion. But as soon as November 17, perhaps in the first quarter of 2024, that is one of the most exciting and also pressing legal issues that people will start to learn more about. There’s other things going on with Treasury, trying to make sense of how to properly tax crypto, it was always a nightmare when I first started buying and exchanging crypto in like 2018, where you literally had to have a spreadsheet because crypto, all crypto assets are taxed in the United States as a capital asset. So imagine that every time I am going from cash to crypto, as I say, from, you know, $1 to some portion of Bitcoin is a taxable event, even if I’m using the dollar to get bitcoin and then within the same day, or maybe the same week, then exchanging Bitcoin for ETH. And then using that to get a stablecoin every single time there’s a an exchange, that is considered a taxable event, even if it’s negligible. So the argument before the before treasury, in general and IRS in particular is there should be some de minimis amount. In right now, the number that’s floated is about the equivalent of $600, where we, I mean, it gets to be completely impractical to have to account for every single transaction under that amount, because you’re not worried about money laundering, you’re, you know, you’re not worried about significant fraud or anything like that at that level. And so that’s a really interesting thing to watch. And then finally, there’s a lot of, I don’t think it’s going to happen in 2024, because we’re in a presidential cycle, but a lot of support for various types of legislation to give greater certainty as a matter of regulation. But greater clarity of what agency is actually primarily empowered, if at all, will there be a primary or lead regulator as between this SEC and the CFTC? That’s major. The CFTC is responsible for futures and for commodities. But there doesn’t seem to be agreement between the head of the CFTC and the SEC about the taxonomy, the characterization of various assets. And it’s problematic because most of them are programmable. They actually can change the nature of their character, they might start out as a security. I argue that Ethereum actually did start out as a security. It was, the project was not yet built, they did an initial coin offering inviting people to invest and get a return on their investment. That is, and it was not registered. That would be a classic unregistered security. But years later when it was fully decentralised there’s no central foundation or entity responsible, I argue, and the head of the CFTC would agree that that ETH is a commodity. But the SEC is the head. Gary Gensler does not agree. So I say all that to say, there’s a lot of uncertainty that is driving business away from the United States, to other jurisdictions where it may not be easier, but at least it’s clear. And that’s one of the greatest dangers in the United States is that we would not lead in this area. So those are some of the things to really look for in the headlines that have a direct impact on mass adoption.

Gene Tunny  20:54

And what jurisdictions would they be Professor Evans that the activity could be driven to?

Tonya Evans  21:01

So we see a lot of offshore stuff in and by off, sometimes, when people hear offshore, they immediately think illegal, this is literally off of the shores of the United States. So it makes me think of the Bahamas that has its own central bank currency, the sand dollar, it makes me think of Bermuda. I’m a former member of their advisory board, their financial Technology Advisory Board. They were quite forward thinking. Bermuda is particularly interesting, because it’s a jurisdiction that has a long history of well regulated very clear insurance. And so that’s an interesting place. Zug Switzerland is known as you know, like the Crypto Valley, in the same way that we might think of Silicon Valley here in the United States, quite forward thinking. Singapore is ahead of the curve. Absolutely. It’s the UAE. Despite all that is going on in that area of the world. The UAE, in general, makes me think of Dubai in particular, and Abu Dhabi. A couple of years ago, I was one of the first of Forbes 50, over 50 listees and we celebrated in Abu Dhabi, for example. And I was amazed not only how opulent and beautiful, but how progressive in terms of forward thinking with with crypto. And finally, and this is not a leader that we want to follow, but it’s a caution… not, well, I’ll say it a cautionary tale regarding central bank digital currencies, is China. China was the first country to launch a central bank digital currency, which raises in me all sorts of alarm bells, not not for central bank digital currencies in and of themselves. But the huge issues around financial privacy that people need to get up to speed on if in fact, the United States would start to publicly explore CBDC here, that you want to have the same financial privacy that you do with cash, but have the convenience and things that are better, faster, cheaper, with respect to digital assets. So there’s a lot going on in this space and a lot of activity. In fairness to the United States, there’s some countries and I’ve mentioned a few where you have just one regulator. They don’t have the alphabet soup of the FCC and the CFTC and the partridge in a pear tree right in, in the executive. They don’t have the committees and the subcommittee’s wrangling for jurisdiction and oversight authority in the legislature. However, you know, it’s more simplistic. And so it used to kind of not be a great thing, but it is when you need to be nimble and move quickly because our system is not intended to move quickly. It’s actually built this way to slow things down and be more methodical, but that doesn’t work with this type of technology.

Gene Tunny  24:16

Hmmm, yeah, yeah, absolutely. I imagine that our regulators, I’m in Australia, so I imagine they’re looking closely at what’s happening in the States to see where things land. And you Yeah, it’s fascinating about this Bitcoin ETF. And I know that there was a group in Congress that’s looking at the regulations of how they changed the regulations around the SEC yet or is that something still to do? Do they need to give SEC more powers?

Tonya Evans  24:47

They’re exploring it. The short answer to your question is yes. Because the rulemaking authority that is delegated to an agency comes from Congress and so, we call those enabling or enabling acts, there’s another term as well, but enabling act. So basically, Congress says, here’s the framework, you’re the subject matter expert executive agency. So you all kind of you’re the mortar to these bricks. And it’s the executive branch in general agencies in particular that, that put into play the actual rules and regulations and actually run the thing you think of it like as you have a CEO, the President, and then you have all of these smaller bodies that take care of the day to day functioning, based upon, okay, we have this delegated authority from the legislative body, but it’s ultimately up to Congress to say you’ve over stepped, what we asked you to do, we empowered you to do X, Y, but now you’re doing Z, or also to say, hey, when we created this enabling legislation to empower this agency, we did not have this in mind. We did not have this in mind, right. And so we’re gonna need to go back to the drawing board on this. And I am encouraged that there is in many important, for many important issues, there seems to be a bipartisan effort. I don’t think this is beholden to one party or the other, although it is certainly playing itself out that way. When I think of President Biden’s executive order to order all of the agencies to look into the space and to come up with their rules, a report outs, etc. That happened back in 2022, in March of 2022. So a year later, we have some of those reports. The concern has been, and it’s been a bipartisan concern, that and what I what I testified about in March was about what appears to be a Choke Point 2.0. Choke Point 1.0 was an actual policy under the Obama administration that was cutting off banking access to certain industries deemed to be harmful at the time. So it was like the payday lenders and things like that. Ultimately, it was overturned. But you could at least intellectually understand why that might be. But it ended up not passing muster. We don’t have something on the books, but in effect, it has been very difficult for people operating in the crypto industry to actually be banked. They said, You know, it’s basically like, well, if you want it to be off, you know, off the grid and have your own little money, then you won’t use our banks to do it. And what we’re seeing is that and that has happened in the marijuana industry as well, it’s like if this is if something is otherwise legal, and lawful, that we shouldn’t have a government operating against it to thwart its progress and kind of kill it in its infancy, which what it appears to be. And so you will see this discussion around banking and and being able to onboard meaning going from cash to crypto, and off boarding, settling out, selling in the way that you would sell stocks, and then recoup in in Fiat. So we’ll see that playing itself out too. But that’s another major issue.

Gene Tunny  28:20

Right so is that really difficult at the moment so does the government make it difficult to do that?

Tonya Evans  28:24

It has been very difficult even for someone like me, in addition to teaching at Penn State, Dickinson Law School, I have my own onboarding platform. It’s a online business, I do not sell tokens, I do not invest for other people. And I have either been debanked or had an application denied just because I am a crypto educator, which makes no sense in the world. And it was too difficult because what banks were also hearing is, the government doesn’t like it, even though banks are private, they are in general, they are inextricably linked with the government, as we always see in terms of bailouts, etc, etc. And so when you hear from on high, that this is something that the government at this point in time does not fully support, in my humble opinion, because it is a customer service issue. When you start exchanging value that isn’t beholden to a government. That’s a big deal. You know, it’s we’re basically looking at a time where you have internet 3.0 web 3.0 is what people refer to it as, in the web 2.0 version. There was great support around the globe for the global exchange of information. Yeah, we had to use the internet, you had to protect the internet. Katie Couric and Bryant Gumbel had to figure out what the hell email was because we were all going to use it. Right. And that was great. And we wanted to support innovation, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Now we have web three where not only are we exchanging messages of information packets of information. Now those packets are about value. It gets at the heart of even why governments tax, particularly in times of war, etc, and to protect borders that are now being threatened by a borderless currency. That’s a BFD. And so that changes the conversation even though the technology is the same. And so we have a customer service issue. And until governments can figure it out, I don’t think they’re always going to be very excited, particularly in the United States where we have the globe currently. Let’s talk about it in 10 years, but currently the global reserve.

Gene Tunny  30:42

Yeah, yeah. In your books title, you talk about going from cash to crypto. And that’s a you’ve got a registered trademark sign there, is that your platform is it Professor Evans can you explain what cash to crypto is about please?

Tonya Evans  30:56

Yeah, that’s my signature course. So I when I launched Advantage Evans Academy, my primary course and it’s still up and very popular today. It’s an on demand, evergreen version, I’m constantly updating actually, because things change every year. And it takes you in five modules from introducing folks to fundamentals or even the purpose. We start with mindset of even trusting ourselves, managing our own money, because as a Gen Xer I grew up, the minute that you had any money, you’re gonna put it in the bank. And it’s interesting to learn more, as I’ve learned more about the crypto space to really fundamentally start to unpack savings and loans, it’s like, Alright, so let me get this straight, I’m going to put a whole bunch of money into the bank, maybe you used to be able to walk down to the bank, I don’t know if people can do that anymore. And I’m gonna put my money in and it’s gonna be safe there and up to $100,000. I’ll get it back. If we all want our money, even though I plan to have way more than $100,000 stored for another day, right? But let’s say I just have 100,000, it’s FDIC insured, and I’m going to earn a pittance, if anything in interest. And then that same bank is going to loan me back my money for cars for homes, and they’re going to keep the spread. I don’t like that. I don’t like that system. I didn’t know that was a system where I was taught not to trust myself. And not to worry my pretty little head about it. Well, I’ve learned so much in the last six, going on seven years than I had, and I went to Northwestern and went to all the best schools I graduated with honours that from law school. My dad’s a doc, my mom’s a lawyer. I knew nothing about money before I really started to lean in and see how disconnected I was even from the process. Even from understanding when people ask me, what is bitcoin backed by, like what is the dollar backed by? And I don’t hate dollars, I love dollars. But we haven’t been on the global, excuse me the gold system standard for decades. Based on the full faith and credit of the government, we keep coming up against the threat of government shutdown, we’ve had two downgrades in our credit rating, because people aren’t trusting us as much as they used to. Because it’s our full faith and credit. Our word is supposed to be our bond, and it’s scaring the rest of the world. So this is an also, an alternative, alternative to that, that people need to get aware of. Not necessarily replacement in toto today. But you definitely want options in this world.

Gene Tunny  33:33

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  34:07

Now back to the show.

This is something I’ve covered on the show quite a bit because it’s obviously a huge issue in economics. And I mean the way that I think about it and that economists think about it’s well Milton Friedman in Monetary History of the United States, even you know, he acknowledged look, money is a fiction. But what will, what the question is which, which fiction is the most powerful do most believe and the fact is that with dollars, you can settle existing contracts, all the prices are in dollar terms. And you can pay your taxes to the inland ra…, internal revenue or to the Australian Taxation Office in the local currency. So that’s what gives the dollar power or means that that fiction is strongest. And I think that’s, that’s why many economists are concerned about that. And why there is that concern about well, maybe, I mean, is this volatility going to ever settle down? I don’t know. I mean, I think I take your points in your book, I think you make the best possible case for, for Bitcoin and for crypto. But yeah, I think that would be the concern of, of economists. Do you have any thoughts on that at all Professor Evans?

Tonya Evans  35:29

I think it’s important, it’s an important metric. I don’t even know if it’s a success or not, but just to understand what position crypto should have, if any, in an overall portfolio. And obviously, there is I mean, Bitcoin, for example, is up almost 70% this year. And it is one of the quickest ways over its lifecycle to get a significant return on investment as it goes through it’s bull and bear cycles in the same way that the stock market goes through bear, bullish and bearish cycles, the manipulation and I don’t use that pejoratively, but the way that monetary policy is set with inflation, we’re tweaking it’s kind of like we’re calibrating, right. And so there’s a natural energy lifecycle to assets. And as long as you are strategic, you could have something that is very, very safe and secure and predictable, offset with something that isn’t, with great risk comes greater reward, and then it’s an overall balance a balanced portfolio that I think is most important, I would not recommend, although I know some you know, Bitcoin maximalists will cash out their 401 K and put it all into Bitcoin and let it roll. They I think there’s a privilege in being able to do that, because I believe that if past is prologue, we are we will be entering a bull market soon. I think with more positive news. We’re getting past the crypto contagion, we have endured a two and a half, almost three year down cycle. And historically speaking, things have ticked upward. Bitcoin is generally the the rising tide that lifts all boats around. So even really crappy coins start to do modestly better. When bitcoin is doing better, that’s one of the many dangers I see in the space. But you know, whether or not this becomes this entire ecosystem becomes more stabilised. I believe that is possible. I just don’t know if I can read the tea leaves yet of when. But I do believe it’s not a matter of if but when giving, given the import of this technology that is just so pervasive across industry, and sector, it also makes me think of what will be the monetary standard. And this is not too far fetched to stay in space, in outer space, and we don’t have all of the sophisticated borders and things of that nature, but you’re gonna have to have a common currency that becomes more than any one government or, or country’s currency. What currency will that be? It’s probably going to be a digital asset. Which one I don’t know. It may not be Bitcoin, but it’s going to be some type of digital coin. And so preparing for that now and having a first mover advantage depending upon your risk tolerance is something that I’m willing personally to do. And I believe the first step to that is for folks to lean into education, from cash to crypto programme is great for fundamentals. Obviously, the book is a quick read that just level sets, facts so that people have a better idea of what questions to even ask, as they start to kind of become cautiously optimistic in the space, not fall victim to fear uncertainty and doubt or FUD and definitely not to fall victim to FOMO when people start talking about it and and celebrities are back in and NFT’s are all the rage and the next DOW comes out like you cannot be emotional about strategically investing for the long term. And so that’s what I want to educate and empower people to do through through my work through my courses. And certainly through the book.

Gene Tunny  39:22

Gotcha. You raise an interesting question about effectively what’s going to be the currency of the Galactic Empire. I’m gonna have to think more about that and see if any science fiction writers have thought about that. That’s quite a quite an important question. I like it. Right! With the, one thing I’m wondering is do you know how, how extensive is Bitcoin or crypto being used for actual transactions? Are contracts being written in do you see any of that going on?

Tonya Evans  39:53

That’s a great question. I’ve not quantified that yet. I love that question. You’ll have to have me back and we can uncover that. What I know for sure is that more and more legacy companies are creating opportunities for their existing customers to stay on platform and to have access, exposure or some of the the benefits of crypto and the underlying technology. So MasterCard and Visa have products now that will allow you to either earn crypto back, or to pay for things in crypto and you don’t really have to ever touch Bitcoin or whatever crypto is connected to it, because that happens behind the scenes. But you can say I offer this product, right? There’s still I don’t think they’re set their real time settlement is to the blockchain, right? They still have their legacy infrastructure, but they want to not lose customers, as people become more curious and have more opportunities. So Visa, MasterCard, PayPal, they will, PayPal first entered into the space, they would allow you to purchase Bitcoin, I don’t think it was other coins at the time, but you couldn’t take it off platform. So for me and for cypherpunks, or others, like the whole thing is your own personal self custody of your assets. So I don’t leave things on a centralised exchange, even if I trust it. Look what happened to you know, those who had left their property on FTX’s, centralised exchange or BlockFi. We saw a lot of lenders, you know, go out of business and file bankruptcy and your coins go with it. So self custody is a really important thing. But most people are not going to do that now. And PayPal knows that. So giving people the ability, they realised they weren’t going to get a lot of traction if they didn’t allow for people to take their Bitcoin off platform. And eventually they developed a product to do that. And in addition, they recently, I don’t know how to pronounce it, but they have their own coin. It’s like PY something. But it’s a PayPal, stablecoin so that they can do real time settlement within their own PayPal ecosystem, which is really really powerful Cash App, you have been able to buy bitcoin off of Cash App forever, and then transfer it off into your own self custody wallet. We have, in full transparency I am a member of the Board of Digital Currency Group, which owns Grayscale as in CoinDesk, it owns Genesis as well as well, probably 200 different projects and companies in its portfolio. And one of those is Grayscale, Grayscale has GBTC. So the Grayscale Trust, I’m sure a number of people have seen their commercials and Grayscale has petitioned or applied to exchange or change the character of GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF. And so there are so many companies BlackRock, one of the most prudent, traditional historical companies in the in the investment space has applied for an ETF as well. So Deutsche Bank, it just the gamut. So most of that exposure has been for high net worth individuals, but the crypto really is a democratic, inspiring currency. And that’s not a particular political party. It’s this the democratic with a little D that democratises access to, to money and not just money. Because we, it’s a bit of a misnomer to say cryptocurrencies. I feel like if we had to do all over again, we’d call it what I say as crypto asset, because some function well as currencies as we’ve talked about, but it also here in the States and around the world. In in Australia, for sure. We, it is a capital asset. So it’s not just currency. It has additional powers and properties, which is why many people right now, lending to its volatility. This idea of holding on we hoddle or huddle, you’ll see. So used to the proper word was hold and then it was misspelt and now it’s folklore to say huddle, instead of hold that holding for the long term, which makes Bitcoin in particular more valuable because it has a hard cap. Unlike many of the other coins and currencies that are more susceptible to inflation in the same way we see government issued currencies. So so so there’s a lot there to to focus on. You mentioned volatility is one thing I wanted to tie up with that as well, because it lends itself to what we’re talking about now. As more entrants come in to the space, as liquidity continues to rise, as clarity in the laws and regulations start to settle, historically speaking, the volatility of pricing starts to diminish. And the interesting question will be, how long will that take in this space? It just feels like everything is moving more quickly. I don’t know if it’s because I’m getting older or the world is moving faster or both. But what used to take decades and decades, I don’t know that it takes as long anymore, but time will tell.

Gene Tunny  45:36

Yeah, yeah. You mentioned GBT, was it GBTC? Could you? What does that mean? Sorry, I missed that before GB…

Tonya Evans  45:46

Grayscale has a Trust Company and it sells shares of its trust, and the trust holds Bitcoin and other assets. And what and so that was permissible, but it was set up as a trust, not offered as an exchange traded fund for Bitcoin specifically, and so Grayscale submitted a proposal, an application that is sitting before the SEC currently to be approved for a spot Bitcoin ETF. So it has an existing infrastructure. GBTC is available and traded, but based upon trust interests, not as a spot ETF, and that’s what we’re waiting to see. There are 12 different applications before the SEC, an important date for approval is the first one would be November 17. So there’s been a lot of speculation, will the SEC approve one, a few, all 12? So as not to be kind of like the kingmaker to say this is the first one we will approve, maybe that would unfairly, you know, nod to one particular company over another where I believe the SEC hates them all. My opinion, not the opinion of this show. But the federal court said what it said, so we’re gonna, you know, not a matter of if but when but will it be all of them? Will it just be the one from Grayscale? Will it be the first one that they receive? But there’s some date certains that are built into the application process and that’s what the SEC is coming up against now.

Gene Tunny  47:25

Right! Okay. Yeah, definitely. Look out for that. Right I’ve just got two more questions. If you have time Professor Evans this is fascinating. Really, really interesting. And I like the point you made about how you got to make sure you actually own the the assets, the crypto, there’s a phrase you use, I can’t remember off the top of my head but something about you if you don’t own the keys, you don’t own the crypto is that it? Something like that?

Tonya Evans  47:48

Yeah, not your keys, not your crypto not your keys, not your coins, not your keys, not your cheese, whatever you fancy.

Gene Tunny  47:54

Gotcha. Yeah, the other term I learned that is the Lamb bro. So for the Lamborghini bros. And so if we do have that, the bull market in in crypto, we’ll see a few more Lamborghinis out on the street. So it’s a bit of a…

Tonya Evans  48:10

We might, and I will have to say that those who, particularly cypherpunks, hate, hate, hate this moniker, they hate it, hate it, hate it, and I get it. I will tell you, as a woman who has gone to a number of conferences, it’s rough out there sometimes. I think there are men who have the privilege of not seeing how male dominated it, certain ecosystems can be, I mean, certain conferences can be and how intimidating it can be when people are drunk and things are going on and was very flashy. I think that is a misrepresentation in general of my experience, and I’m a black woman. As long as you know, I talk the talk and walk the walk I have, generally speaking, been received well, I have to say. That being said, the Lamborghinis, the parties, the strippers like that’s a lot. So when it makes me but, you know, you think of the idea that we have the finance world, and we have the tech world. And then they come together into this microcosm. The Crypto ecosystem is a microcosm of those two spaces where women are underrepresented significantly, even though it continues to improve people of colour, etc. And so there is no impediment other than one’s own education and knowledge and awareness of the space, which is encouraging. And I think for those who have been in the space for a long time, or maybe from the Cypherpunk movement would say, we’re not keeping anybody out. Right. Many are libertarians, they were like, equal …. is good. Get yours. I’m gonna get mine. I’m not going to keep you from yours. Don’t keep me from my, and I get that I respect that. I think there are other forces that work that make me want to be more intentional. To know how much personally and professionally I have benefited from the knowledge and awareness, the professional pivot I did as a lawyer, as a professor, as an educator, that now I believe, for anyone in the world, it is the best opportunity in countries like mine, and countries like yours, to get ahead to kind of level the playing field to get get caught up as a matter of generational wealth at any other time, in certainly my history, but I would argue the history of the world, because things are digitised, we’re starting to remove like redlining and gatekeepers, things that would maintain the status quo to have the best for just a few. And then the rest left for everybody else. This is one of those pivotal inflection points in life. And I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say, because I know personally, and for those who I’ve helped educate who are like me, that this was that makes it more exciting to. And so I, it was really important for me to put that chapter in the book, because I wanted to not only say, the crypto bro thing it has existed, but it hopefully is the exception and not the rule for people who are very serious in the space. But also it misrepresents all of those who are curious and well positioned to take advantage of the space too, because the only thing that is keeping people out presently is a lack of awareness, education, and some protection as they enter an untested space in many ways.

Gene Tunny  51:46

Gotcha. And that is one of the themes of your book, you were referencing it before. It’s the idea that you see this as it can level the playing field or can provide opportunities to people from minority groups. And I know you’re not saying definitely invest in crypto, but yeah, how do you think about it? Because I see risks in crypto. And I mean, is this the right thing for someone starting out or some someone with not a lot of resources to invest in first thing? How do you think about that?

Tonya Evans  52:17

I would like to see kind of a both and approach particularly with respect to Bitcoin. When I first started in the space I, for a number of reasons, one as a professional and thinking a lot of my profession and not wanting to misguide people, knowing people would trust my voice if they heard it from me. And so I didn’t want to be in the habit of saying buy Bitcoin, buy ETH, buy this, buy that, I’ve changed my approach because Bitcoin is quite special as are stablecoins, I actually think stablecoins are the best way for people to get in. They’re not going to get wrecked by volatility. There’s some really strong ones, USDC from Circle, I have great respect for that team doing exceptional job. I know some of those folks, personally, I love USDC. We also have Tether. I don’t know who the people are. But I know Tether is very important to the Etherium ecosystem. It’s kind of like the oil that keeps things going there. When people want to jump out of the volatility of the market, but not out of crypto, they often move in the stables. And there are ways that you can earn interest and yield and blah, blah, blah. And so, I believe the short answer to your question is that this is a space where you want to start buying, you do, the best days right now are when most people aren’t there. The best times to make a sizable return if it’s to be had at all, is when most people are scared. Right? Warren Buffett says be greedy when people are fearful and fearful when people are greedy. When people start to get greedy, that’s when you know you’re probably getting to the top of a cycle and it’s time to like stabilise move things around, rebalance, reposition. And to really understand that with all of those, you know, 1000s and 1000s of tokens and coins. I hope you’re not gonna buy them all. Probably not gonna buy the overwhelming majority but they’re the you know, the top five, top, top 10 have a proven track record. That doesn’t mean they’re always going to win. But if you start now, you start learning the language. It’s what I’ve even done with stocks when I started swing trading, not day trading, but swing trading sometimes I had to start to learn how to read charts and candles and wicks and bar graphs right to start understanding. If this is the way this particular assets move, once it hits this particular range, maybe that’s a great time to buy. Maybe I’m wrong, but at least I’m using some type of disciplined, non emo…, separate, disciplined approach like separate from emotion. And that’s really important. Some of those same strategies can be used in the crypto space, but the major caveat, not only as a matter of volatility, but also this is 24/7 365. There are no national holidays. There’s oftentimes no customer service. I mean, if you’re buying and holding on an exchange, you have some additional layers of protection. But you have some risks even being on exchanges. This is the time to learn about this. Stable coins, literally are pegged to a particular asset, in most cases, the dollar or some equivalent of that as well. So you don’t have to go up and down with the market, but you can learn about the market. And then finally, back to my original point about Bitcoin because it has a hard cap of 21 million coins that will ever be in circulation, and actually 19 million are already in circulation. But it’ll be a long time after my life. And yours when the final bitcoin is actually issued for some technical reasons we can talk about next time, but it’s special. It’s special. And actually, I don’t think and I think many people would agree with me, Bitcoin doesn’t really function well as a peer to peer cash for more stable economies in Australia, in the United States, in Canada, in very various places in Europe, because it’s a nice to have for most people, not a need to have. But then you go to other nations, you go to Central and South America, you go to countries on the continent of Africa, and you start to see places, Ecuador and El Salvador, where there’s complete destabilisation, there’s confiscation, it is critically important that people have access to something that will hold its value better than the national currency, that is more trustworthy and non-confiscatable in the same way that their local currency is. And when you when you start to learn about that, like people need to travel and understand different cultures and people to really get a handle on why this even if it’s not important, and like a nice investment to have, for some it’s life or death for others. And eventually, every one of us will be touched by some catastrophe at some point that will have a direct impact on our finances, be it natural disaster, something going on, God forbid, with the government and everything in between, like, we have to pay attention to what’s going on in the world. And to, there’s 99.9% of things we can’t control, control the controllables. And one of those is your own level of education in a space that’s transformative, but has the potential to be empowering and to protect you down the road. By the time you need to figure it out. It’s oftentimes too late. So now’s really the time, the market is kind of quiet, the bad actors are starting to get routed out. This is the time when you don’t have the FOMO and FUD pressure, and you can proactively start to take some significant steps in the right direction.

Gene Tunny  58:03

Righto, okay. Final question. You mentioned about criminal activity and as a proportion of all crypto activity, the criminal activities, very small proportion, okay, accept that, but has crypto, is there any evidence on whether crypto has enabled criminal activity? So it’s expanded the amount of criminal activity out there in, so does it make it easier to traffic arms or just you know, awful things like human trafficking, etc? Do we know in drugs? Do we know anything about that?

Tonya Evans  58:37

It’s just a small, small part. There are some significant bad actors who deal precisely in the things that you’ve mentioned. But and the Wall Street Journal here. Maybe within the last, well had to be within the last month, they ran this completely error-ridden report about Hamas, raising millions and millions in Bitcoin. And there was this huge rush by Senator Warren and some other folks signing off on letters saying that needs to be immediate action taken. And it was just completely wrong. And it was scary that our legislators would rely on something that was so faulty, and with not insignificant pushback and fact checking, mostly coming from the crypto community. The Wall Street Journal had to issue a retraction and the senators had to stand down. What was said to be millions and millions that Hamas, Hamas was like, please don’t send us any more money they can track it. Thank you. Send us dollars. Send us dollars do not, send send us dollars and oil. Do not send us Bitcoin because of the nature of the tracking. You can literally go to any bitcoin tracker and see in real time. Now it’s pseudonymous, not anonymous at but with Chainalysis and some other companies use what’sapp’s called blockchain forensics. And it’s really like following the money. It’s a paper trail. But only it’s not using paper and every single transaction all the way back to the original transaction in Bitcoin issued by Satoshi Nakamoto, him or herself, is on chain visible, and you can see from wallet to wallet to wallet to wallet, and you start aggregating pieces of data. This is the way the Department of Justice here in the United States starts to root that out, and it’s just a terrible place for activity. Now, the one point is, it might be easier to get it up front. But it’s not a matter of if but when, with the right resources behind behind it, some of that stuff is going to get found and people will be routed out and they will come to justice. So this is a terrible thing for for for criminal activity. That doesn’t mean criminals won’t try. They’re very lazy. And maybe they don’t know a lot about it either. But that’s why there’s a relatively insignificant amount because, you know, it’s easy to hide physical cash. Right? It’s not easy to hide something that’s there in plain sight. So it’s tough to combat that point because of the pervasiveness of, like the sensationalised headlines, and again not to diminish what’s going on we use Sam Bankman-Fried for example, as an you know, kind of the poster boy, but it took less time because he was apprehended in the Bahamas on November 7, in like basically almost a year to the date. He’s a convicted felon, and we’re just waiting for his sentence. It took way more time to find out who was involved in the the housing crisis, way more time to take down Bernie Madoff. It’s all garden variety fraud, but it happened far more quickly in the crypto space and I don’t think that the crypto space gets enough credit for that.

Gene Tunny  1:02:00

Yeah, good point. Very good point. Okay, Professor Tonya Evans, this has been amazing. I really value your insights and your your deep knowledge of this sector. This is this is really terrific. And I got a lot out of this. And yeah, I’d love to do a round two sometime in the future. But yep, Digital Money Demystified. I’ve got it on Kindle. I think it comes out in paperback. Next year, early next year. So yep, I think

Tonya Evans  1:02:28

It’s here now, yeah now here now go to your favourite place and buy buy buy, you can go to digitalmoneydemystified.com. But it came out on October 24. So it’s available wherever books around the world are sold.

Gene Tunny  1:02:42

Okay, ah very good. I must have misread that. That’s, that’s terrific. Well, Professor Tonya Evans, thanks so much for your time. I really value the conversation.

Tonya Evans  1:02:50

Appreciate you Gene. Thank you.

Gene Tunny  1:02:53

Righto, thanks for listening to this episode of Economics Explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact@economicsexplored.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

1:03:40

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Invisible Hand, social media, money & crypto w/ John August – thoughts on recent episodes – EP194

In this episode of the Economics Explored podcast, host Gene Tunny chats with John August, Treasurer of the Pirate Party of Australia and host of the Roving Spotlight show on Radio Skid Row in Sydney. Together, they discuss previous episodes on topics such as the invisible hand, Goldbacks, and cryptocurrencies. Listeners are encouraged to share their thoughts on these topics.

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple PodcastsSpotify, and Stitcher.

What’s covered in EP194

  • [00:02:44] The invisible hand. 
  • [00:04:27] Hidden assumptions in economics. 
  • [00:08:15] Problem with gambling addiction. 
  • [00:14:39] Soviet Union. 
  • [00:26:03] Military expenditure and Soviet collapse. 
  • [00:30:16] Social media and liberty. 
  • [00:33:37] Censorship in social media. 
  • [00:39:01] History of currency. [00:40:47] 
  • [00:44:25] Central Bank Digital Currency. 
  • [00:50:34] Crypto as a solution. 
  • [00:55:46] CBDC concerns and conspiracy theories.

Links relevant to the conversation

John’s website where you can find his writings and a link to his radio show:

https://johnaugust.com.au/

Gene’s previous conversations with John:

https://www.mixcloud.com/Johnorg/roving-spotlight-24-may-22-post-election-all-over-gene-tunny-economics-internet-purchases/

https://economicsexplored.com/2022/06/21/advertising-surveillance-capitalism-w-john-august-ep144/

https://economicsexplored.com/2022/05/11/the-pirate-partys-economic-policy-platform-w-john-august-ep138-transcript/

Recent episodes mentioned in the conversation:

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/05/12/govt-wellbeing-budgets-frameworks-useful-or-useless-w-nicholas-gruen-ep187/

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/04/29/the-invisible-hand-economic-religious-or-mystical-concept-w-dan-sanchez-fee-ep185/

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/04/12/what-are-goldbacks-and-whos-buying-them-e-g-preppers-libertarians-collectors-w-goldback-founder-jeremy-cordon-ep183/

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/03/31/odd-way-to-fix-housing-crisis-proposed-by-aus-govt-invest-in-stocks-first-w-dr-cameron-murray-sydney-uni/

https://economicsexplored.com/2022/09/18/bitcoin-books-w-author-ex-fighter-pilot-lars-emmerich-ep157/

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/03/08/crypto-arbitrage-searcher-dave-belvedere-on-crypto-and-dapps-such-as-wizards-dragons-ep178/

https://economicsexplored.com/2022/12/19/aussie-energy-crisis-net-zero-transition-w-josh-stabler-energy-edge-ep170/

Transcript:
Invisible Hand, social media, money & crypto w/ John August – thoughts on recent episodes – EP194

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It was then looked over by a human, Tim Hughes from Adept Economics, to check for mondegreens, things that otters might have misheard. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:06

Welcome to the Economics Explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you could join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information.

Now on to the show.

Hello, thanks for tuning into the show. In this episode, I chat with previous guest and regular listener John August about some recent episodes. John is the treasurer of the Pirate Party of Australia. And he hosts the roving spotlight show on Radio Skid Row in Sydney. When he was in Brisbane, recently, John dropped into my office and he gave me some thoughtful and provocative feedback on some recent episodes. First, we discuss my conversation on the invisible hand with Dan Sanchez from the Foundation for Economic Education. John and I went on to chat about goldbacks and cryptocurrencies. They were the topics of some other recent episodes. I’ll put links to all those recent episodes in the show notes. If you have any thoughts on what John and I have to say in this episode, or previous episodes, then please get in touch via contact@economicsexplored.com. Okay, let’s get into the show. I hope you enjoy my conversation with John August.

Gene Tunny 01:44

John August, good to be chatting with you.

John August  01:48

Yes, well, you do say at the end of the show, you know, we’d like to know what you’re thinking and boy have I listened to a lot of shows. And boy, have I done a lot of thinking about your show. So so I’m here to sort of follow through on that invitation, I guess you might say,

Gene Tunny  02:01

very good, John. So yes. Good to be chatting with you again. So we’ve previously chatted about things like advertising and, and some other issues. I was on your show talking about economics and philosophy of economics. If I remember, correctly,

John August  02:15

well, I think I was inviting you to talk about three famous economist three issues, three things important. So I think there was a sort of nine things to talk about. And okay, oops, oops, I can’t remember the

Gene Tunny  02:28

Okay, I’ll put a link to it. I remember that was good fun. But you’ve you’ve had some thoughts on some recent episodes, as you said, and I mean, one of the ones was the one I did with Dan Sanchez, from Foundation for Economic Education on the invisible hand. So I’m interested in what do you think about that conversation? What are your reactions to that one?

John August  02:51

Well, in a narrow sort of way, I guess I do celebrate elements of the, you know, the invisible hand. But you know, the overall position, I guess he had just too a naive, a sunny view of things, and I’m going to maybe say, you know, things that I strongly disagree with him. But I hope at the end of the day, maybe I could buy him a beer or something like that. I don’t want it to be that negative. But yes, there’s a lot of things I disagreed with, with him on now, one of the things that he was saying is, look, you know, there are atheists out there that disagree with the whole idea of the invisible hand, just because the guy made one reference to God saying that. Now look, I can’t speak for other atheists. And maybe he has experienced some atheists who have actually said that. But I would never say that a religious view has got no validity to it. Now, I would say to the extent that it does have validity, it’s because people lived certain things. They thought about the world around us, around them, and they tried to put into writing and try to think it through. In other words, it may have some merit, but it’s not revealed truth from God, but it can still have merit. What I’m trying to say is, as an atheist, I think deeply about religion and the ideas and how they propagate. So so that’s a bit of a diversion. But what I’m trying to say is, I would never dismiss something, merely because someone mentions God once, twice or three times in developing their argument. So I would never challenge the idea of the invisible hand on that basis. But as far as the story of the pencil goes, Look, it is remarkable that there’s so much coordination to make the pencil. Okay, that’s impressive. But there’s also a decent number of hidden assumptions built in. Now one is that we’re assuming everyone in that chain are paid reasonably. We’re also assuming that there’s no particular externalities like people are mining whatever minerals they need to make the to make the pencils or they’re cutting down trees or whatever. And we won’t need to assume that. We’re also assuming that people are buying those pencils for legitimate needs. Now, let’s say someone’s buying pencils, because they’re addicted to chewing the ends of it, not because they actually want to design a building with those pencils that people will benefit from. And notice I’m, I’m sneaking in, to some degree, what I think you call in economics, a normative judgement. But keep in mind, if you say, here is this system, it is good. You’re making a normative judgement. So I think I can push back and challenge the normative judgments and say, if people are buying these pencils, because they’re addicted to chewing the ends of the pencils, and they’re addicted to that, like they’re addicted to heroin, well, is it really such a good thing that these pencils are being made. So there’s one equilibrium where things are made that people legitimately need. And, you know, the market coordinates itself in very impressive ways to do that. And I won’t deny that. That’s the good side of the invisible hand. But I think there’s other equilibrium that can also arise in the market, the equilibrium between people’s ability to be manipulated, and the market having the energy to manipulate them, because there’s money to be made from that. Now, we’ve discussed advertising before. But let’s say there’s so many things where there’s a legitimate side, and as you slide down the slope, it gets worse and worse. Now, let’s say someone makes a bet on a footy game of $10. Okay, that bet is recreation. Now, but then at the other end of the scale, you have people who queue up at the clubs at 9am, waiting to go in and play the pokies. Right. And clearly, that’s gone to the end of being addiction. So an in between, I mean, this is one of the things that Dan is also thinking, look, I guess, on one sense, I do celebrate the idea of the sovereign individual, but the psychologist is sort of unpacking the way our brains work, and realising that it’s not such a simple story. Now, we may well struggle to lose weight. And then when the cake is sitting in front of us, you know, we’ll sort of indulge and there’s in a sense there’s two people inside of us that want different things that are struggling for control. And, you know, this naive idea of here is this sovereign individual that wants X Y, Z, they know what they want. And it’s the government that is getting in the way. Now, look, I do not believe in paternalistic intervention, I suppose. But equally, the story Dan Sanchez is telling us just doesn’t seem to be engaging what I think is a much more complicated reality. I mean, let’s talk about or maybe I’ve told this story before, someone’s a heroin addict, did they go out in the market, seek amongst the options and decide and end up becoming a heroin addict because they engage with those options? You know, other stories coming out of AFL? You know, yes, notice I’ve said a certain amount of gambling is a recreation. At the other end, you can say you’re just pandering to someone’s addiction. And there’s this movement within AFL, which is saying, follow the game, not the odds. Because while people do not mind, you know, the single bet on the game sort of thing, which is adding to your experience, when the odds are flashing onto the screen, every advert while the game is playing. A lot of people I think, are getting legitimately concerned about that. And as I say, I’ve got nothing against gambling, per se, but when there’s this big feedback loop, which is I guess ceding to its excesses, then you have a problem there. So that’s one problem that I have with that sort of idea. So notice, I am acknowledging the magic of the pencil. At the same time, I’m also saying there are all these other equilibrium that can happen. And we’ve had the discussion about advertising before. And this is I guess, part of that thing, so. Okay, so we’ve talked about gambling, people queuing up at 9am. Okay, the fact that we struggle to lose weight, and that’s telling us things, okay, then yeah, I mean, it’s the perspective from the affluent society by John Galbraith. He sort of says that in the ideal, we are a sovereign people who have our, to have our wants, we go out into the market, and we satisfy those wants. But he’s saying advertising is a lot more pernicious than that advertising actually shapes our wants, rather than being something a means by which we’re informed of the options to satisfy our wants. So I guess this is a subtle philosophical point. But I would still say, advertising can inform us of our options, or basically our options for satisfying our wants, or it can actively shape our wants. And I think there’s a bit of a conceptual muddle there. So I suppose Dan Sanchez’s view is like, you go out into the world, and the world is this passive thing. And you just, you just pick and choose as a sovereign individual who knows what you want, is totally clear unstressed, no psychological hammocks. But in fact, when you go out in the world, it’s an active thing. It’s reaching out to you. Right. So I think that a lot of his story is problematic there. But at the same time, I do endorse the idea of distributed innovation, people thinking, and, you know, elements of that story. So, so what am I trying to say, look, I acknowledge part of that story of the pencil and that integration. But it’s just that I think people are going too far with it. And taking it’s past its load limit. So in a sense, this is a bit of a bigger dip point of disagreement between myself and Dan Sanchez, and perhaps others, you do say, look, there is this bad stuff going on in the economy, and maybe we need to manage it or have antitrust regulation, and so on. But it’s a matter of how we relate to it. I think, I think people on the other side of the fence, say, it’s over there, we quarantine it conceptually. And then we get on with the interesting stuff, which is thinking about the magic of the pencil, while I sort of say Hang on, it’s all very strongly integrated together. And you can’t really separate them out so clearly or neatly.

Gene Tunny  11:31

So what do you mean by on the other side of the fence? So you see yourself as philosophically different from Dan? Because you, I mean, I’ll have to go back and, you know, really pay close attention to what Dan was saying, because I will, my view was he was making a really good argument that let’s not dismiss what this idea of the market as some sort of fairy tale, because that’s what it all some sort of mystical thing. That’s, that’s what he was reacting to. He was reacting to some commentary that he’d seen where people were saying, Well, you believe in this Invisible Hand thing, and it’s something mystical or religious concept. It’s not something that is, is guiding our, it’s not something legitimate, but he’s saying, well, actually, this is this is what’s supporting the bulk of our society, really, I mean, this is what leads to a higher living standard, higher living standard than, say, in the Soviet Union, which tried a different system. And it proved not to work. So I think he’s making a legitimate point. I would I probably differ from Dan in some of the judgments as you know, what regulations needed. But broadly, I agree with him. I would say that, yeah, I take your points about what economists would call market failures they’re clearly market failures of some kind of different kinds that there could be scope for government intervention to address those. And yeah, people aren’t always rational, they’re not this idea of consumer sovereignty is that’s questionable. And that’s why we have behavioural economics now. So I would say that, largely, Dan is, is on the right track. And I mean, you you yourself, acknowledge the pencil story, there’s some there’s some legitimacy in it. And I guess what you’re saying, or my interpretation is that you think that in telling that story, you you’re not giving enough acknowledgement of these other these deviations from

John August  13:25

I guess so look, I suppose who knows, maybe I need to talk to Dan face to face to sort of get to the bottom of it. But yeah my recollection of that episode was not only was he defending the story of the pencil from unfair criticism, and I think there’s a narrow sense in which I do feel that anybody who dismisses something just because someone mentions God, two or three times, that is wrong. That’s that that’s not right. So in a sense, let’s just say, I will defend Dan against the atheists who make that claim. But then Dan goes a lot further than that. And that was sort of my recollection of the episode that, so notice, I’m saying, Look, I will defend Dan against fellow atheists who, who do behave in the way that he identifies but yeah, there’s a lot more to the story than that. But I suppose there’s some other things that I can talk about that come out of Dan’s story. Now, one of them was social media, but the other one was actually the Soviet Union. Yes. And I suppose you’ve actually mentioned that. And this whole thing of the Soviet Union does actually go into the US and Ukraine. I don’t know whether we want to park that for a later discussion. But let me get started on some stories about the Soviet Union. So my heritage is Lithuania, Lithuanian. And I did actually go to Lithuania, some time after the revolution, and they had sort of, basically they’ve gotten gotten rid of communism on the one hand, and the interesting thing is, the first government that took over Lithuania was not communist, and then they had a successive election and they actually put the old communist back in. Now depends on what you mean by Communism. Now my uncle who was seriously anti Russia and anti communist, he said, Well, if they’re willing to subject themselves to a democratic election and leave based on that, then he says, Well, they’re not really communist. Now this is madder than that. What you mean by communist? Do you mean state control? And obviously, I think the sentiment was those notional communists were Lithuanians first and communist second. And yeah, that was the sort of the way they related to the story there. But there’s this view that like the Soviet Union had shoddy workmanship, but I spoke to people. And there was this idea of, I guess, in the West, you’d call it branding. But people said, if you get a washing machine, or a refrigerator from a factory of known repute, it will just go on and on and on and keep working. Because as far as design goes in the Soviet Union, okay, quality of workmanship, may have been an issue. And it may have varied a bit with the factory. But the engineers were not constrained by what we in the West might call, you know, trade offs to make profit, or, you know, planned obsolescence or those sorts of things. Their design principle was, we make this to work, we make it to last. And if you actually got a factory that did a decent job with putting the bits together, it really did work and last, and what some other stories as you wander around, you see little country towns that have, you know, two storey brick buildings. And if you wander around Australia, you’d say you, you only get two storey buildings when there’s a sufficient density in the township. So on the abstract, you could say that’s wasteful, you know, you don’t need a two storey building in this small township. But you also have the benefits of uniformity, right, a scale, if you know what I mean. Like it’s basically they have one unit that runs around making two storey buildings and makes them wherever and so you have the benefits of scale. So for me, it’s not quite that bad. But let me also tell you a story. Now, this is I’m not sure that people on your show have exactly made this critique, but I know there are commentators who talk about Soviet Union was a place where culture went to die. And now there was a woman I know from Lithuania, who came to Australia to start a family, and she was very musically inclined. And her she actually took her family back to Lithuania, because under the Soviet system, and they actually kept this after the revolution, if your child is musically talented, they can go off to a particular school where their talent is developed, at no particular cost to the parent. Now, we can do that in Australia, but there’s private tuition going to the Conservatorium, this sort of thing. So someone actually went back to Lithuania because of that. So there’s some good things going on there. But let me say, you know, I went to those museums, where the former Soviet Union with the three stamps of the judge, you know, before they execute someone for being a political dissident or whatever. So there was that, you know, evil stuff going on there. And I suppose this is going away from Dan Sanchez, to some of your other commentators that basically I’m very strongly pro Ukraine, partially because of that, that heritage from Lithuania and, and, you know, sure, there are some people on the internet who say that they’re American and very strongly pro Ukraine and I have to take their I take them at face value, but you know, I look at it I’ve seen my my relative with her family from Lithuania. And it’s like, the US theme feels like they’re playing geopolitical chess. But for Poland, the Baltic states, you know, Lithuania, Finland, whatever the Soviet Union is, Russia, I should say is over there and they’re a geographical proximate threat. So they’re actually shall we say, Lithuanian seem more Lithuanian government even seems more pro Ukraine than the US government not to criticise, there are some very strongly pro Ukrainian individual Americans out there who are identifying themselves on the internet. But you know, there’s, there’s an interesting subtlety there. I do actually say that there are some pro Ukraine forces that are stronger even than the US not to deny the US has given us a bucketload of positive aid there. But I suppose with Dan Sanchez, you were having that discussion. You know, what is the story about the Soviet Union there? There are a few little little strange things with the Soviet Union, like compared to China, they’ve got more social capital, you stumble while you’re on the stairs, getting on the train people will be concerned and try to help you up or whatever. But the other story is, remember, once upon a time, when everyone was getting their car stereos pinched out of their cars and and people were putting in the boot and had these special connectors and this sort of thing. And then you went to the stage of having you know, encoding so if I remove it from the power you had to get the code put back into there. Yeah, the thing is you talk to people in Lithuania. And I remember my, my cousin there, you know, people were saying to Oh, why are you putting the stereo in the boot and you don’t have these like, like security keys? And she says, I know, in Lithuania, if you know if there’s money in it, and there’s some technician who can sort of blag the codes, well, you know, it’s not very secure. Now, in Australia, let’s assume that you are some sort of automatic technician that does have access to the codes. And you abuse that I’m not sure it may, maybe you’ll never end up being taken seriously by any automotive firm again, maybe you’ll end up in prison. It’s a very different deal in Australia, if you were to betray that sort of trust. Yeah. But you can see that the degree to which you submit to those sorts of regulations, you know, there were obviously some, I won’t say that. I mean, obviously, yes. Lithuanians will be concerned about you in the street if you stumbled and you know, had that sort of thing. But there was also that sort of aura of criminality, I suppose there as well. And I hope, hopefully, Lithuania is not going to take a swipe at me for saying that. But there’s, I guess, some complexities of the story about the Soviet Union. And I suppose I can but say even though I’m a lefty, I’m certainly not in favour of the Soviet Union or Russia in the way that it was. I mean, going back far enough, I’m aware of that history, you know, way back when, if you’re a dissident in Russia, you would be executed, then the next step is you’d be shipped off to a gulag in Siberia, you might not survive the trip. And then at the end of it, they they locked you up in a lunatic asylum because only the insane would not believe that the Soviet Union could not effective, then right at the end of the thing, if you’re inconvenient, but they didn’t particularly want to lock you up, they’d ship you off to an anonymous township in Siberia would sort of be like the Tower of London, you live a reasonably comfortable but irrelevant existence. So. So anyway, there’s my sort of, I guess, glib summary of the Soviet Union, acknowledging all of the sins along the way.

Gene Tunny  22:07

Yeah. Okay. So I just want to ask one more question about Soviet Union. So look, I acknowledge there were some, there were some positives, and I mean, some I think they had some of the greatest conductors. And certainly there’s some great music that came out of the Soviet Union Shostakovich, for example, or they had great dissident writers too. So that so I mean, that’s, that’s not a positive for the Soviet Union. That’s a that’s a positive for the people, and Solzhenitsyn, who wrote the Gulag Archipelago about the sins of the Soviet Union. But certainly, yeah, this system did encourage the Arts and Sport. They had great sporting achievements. Some of them were assisted by, by doping, of course,

John August  22:51

Well, though, one thing, there were the Olympics in Montreal, and afterwards, they were trawling the river and they found all these syringes there. Anyway, that’s one story about the Soviet Union. Yeah. Was that the 23rd? Olympics? Well, anyway, it was in Montreal.

Gene Tunny  23:11

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  23:45

Now back to the show. Well, what led to the collapse of the Soviet Union, in your view? I mean, partly it was because of the oppression and partly it was because of the inability to deliver the consumer goods that the people needed and wanted. I mean, would you agree with that?

John August  24:02

Partially Yes. Well, I would say broadly speaking, it was corruption. And I guess endemic corruption was what what I would say was the downfall of the Soviet Union. I know that I think it may have been Dan Sanchez, but I know that one of your guests was talking about the price mechanism and the great things about the price mechanism. And goodness me I don’t want to go down. Well, I guess my my endorsement of the price mechanism is somewhat guarded. But yeah, I guess I would focus on corruption and lack of democracy and lack of transparency as being the things that undermine the Soviet Union, rather than a lack of price mechanism. But I suppose it’s, that’s a matter of judgement. I acknowledge.

Gene Tunny  24:51

Well, maybe I’ll do a another episode where I look at the economy of the Soviet Union because I acknowledge that it’s, yeah, it’d be good to get the nuance in there and just understand exactly what was going on and to what extent these stories about the bread lines, people queuing for bread, the shortages to what extent they were true. I mean, it looks like they were in many circumstances…

John August  25:13

Well, going off on quite a tangent. But there’s, you know, Hugh White, who’s the Australian academic. And I know, he’s someone who says that he did actually see the downfall of the Soviet Union before it happened, because he looked at it, did his economic calculation, thought, hang on, this is not sustainable. And maybe it’s worth checking out his analysis. But the very interesting contrast is, he’s an academic and like whether the Soviet Union collapses or not, he’s still got a job, right? Yes. But the very interesting thing is that there were all these people from the CIA, who were saying the Soviet Union is a threat, and will continue to be a threat. And this, this Australian academic with a degree of objectivity could actually see clearly that the collapse of the Soviet Union was coming. So I think that’s a very interesting contrast.

Gene Tunny  25:59

I’ll have to have a look at his stuff, whether was he making the argument that it was because of the economy that was just unsustainable, was it because of the big increase in military expenditure that they had to undertake to match what the US was doing? I mean, this is the this is the story. The the the Americans tell, isn’t it that I mean, Reagan defeated the Soviet Union, because he just massively ramped up US defences

John August  26:22

Well there was also, there was also SDI, which I think was, you know, basically, you know, lasers in space lasers on Earth, whatever, which was ultimately ineffective. But you could say that it was a propaganda ploy that prompted the the Soviet Union spend all this money on stuff that they didn’t need to do so. And that that was one of the things that broke the Soviet Union. Well, let’s just say all these things are possible. Notice I mostly tell the story about Hugh White because it’s a cute story. I don’t carry around all of his conceptual detail, although I’m sure he’d made quite a considered judgement at the time,

Gene Tunny  26:58

I’ll look into it. I’ll look into it. Okay.

John August  27:01

So I suppose the last thing Dan Sanchez was also talking about was social media and the government getting its mitts in and causing problems. And let’s just say, Look, if you are into social media, if you were into the internet, and you understand the development of the Internet, now, look, I actually, as a pirate, I’m certainly concerned about government surveillance, I’m concerned about the protection of whistleblowers, more obviously concerned about companies sort of harvesting data and that sort of thing. You know, that rubric of thing. I mean, I am concerned about government and I’m concerned about business. But let’s focus on social media. The the history is, even of people who are very much, shall we say, anarchist inclined in the way that they relate to social media, the big problem has always been that a positive forum gets taken over by trolls, and you know, people who want to abuse the situation, it basically gets taken over by bad actors, if you’re not careful. And you need moderation to control that. And that is something that elements of the internet, you know, anarchist inclined elements on the internet, have struggled with to get on top of yet. And in a sense, if you set up a chat group, a forum, you know, you’re gonna have to be careful about trolls, to some degree, you’re going to be careful about obnoxious people, or you’re going to have to be careful about, you know, people trying to take over your website and promote gambling or something on it, you know, all those threats. But the idea that the government might come in, and censor you, you know, I just think that that just seems to me to be so naive compared to the lived experience, if you’re actually on the internet, trying to manage these things. Now, one of the things that has actually happened on the internet, it’s a concept they call it, this is the environment here is an amicable dinner party. Right? And this is the thing I do not want to send to someone based on what ideas they’re putting forward. But it may be appropriate to, to call someone out if they’re being obnoxious. And, you know, I thought I, you know, Facebook is a bit controlling and whatnot. Let’s go to some of the alternatives. And rather than the alternatives being a hotbed for interesting political debate and divergent opinions, they tend to get taken over by conspiracy theorists. And that’s my own lived experience on the internet. And it just seems polls apart from Dan Sanchez’s view and look, notice, I’ve told you a few things. You know, I’m not really impressed with government censorship. I’m not really impressed with lack of transparency, protection for whistleblowers, all those sorts of things. Those are a part of the things that I bring to the table. And I suspect we’ll get into it later on. But while I’m not totally against government involvement in society in the economy, by golly, there can be some obnoxious bureaucracy developing very easily. Yeah. And we’ll perhaps get to that.

Gene Tunny  30:04

Yeah. Can I ask you about social media, John? Because I’m actually surprised that your point of view on this, I want to make sure I understand it fully. Because isn’t the biggest threat to our liberty, really the government or government overreach or, you know, factions taking over the government and wanting to impose a totalitarian state? Isn’t that the biggest threat to liberty? Not some trolls online? I mean, you can ignore the trolls, can’t you? And isn’t it better to have a robust debate to have that exchange to? This is why Voltaire didn’t what’s the line from Voltaire about how I disagree with what you say, but I’ll defend, to

John August  30:47

defend to my death your right to say yes, yeah, the person Voltaire was talking about. He was probably saying something Voltaire disagreed with, but he was probably doing it in the context of an an amicable discussion over dinner. Okay, right. And remember, I’ve just I’ve just said, I guess I’m repeating myself. I’m not against people who disagree with me, I am against people who are assholes. And there’s a fundamental difference there. And my concern is not over ideas. Or to some degree, there’s an idea, like someone over there thinks blah, okay, they can think that I don’t care. Are they in my face yelling at me telling you this stuff? Okay, then I have an issue. But I don’t have an issue with someone over there thinking x y Z. So as far as like threat to Liberty now look, maybe you’ve got a point in terms of threats to liberty. Okay. Let’s see now that forget the social scientists who were sort of talking about the state having the monopoly on on violent coercive force, violence, being able to jail people, and so on. So one of the things is you got to understand there are corporate platforms, who are making choices, and some people call that censorship, I tend to think censorship is only something that government does, because the government is backed up by its legal monopoly on force. Right? So So when corporations make a corporate choice, to allow something on their platform, or not allow something on their platform, that’s more of a commercial choice than censorship. But when you have, let’s say, Facebook, or whatever, and there’s only one place you can go to to express yourself, then they’re starting to give state like power, because there’s only one place you can go to. So that’s where things start to get a bit murky. But, you know, let’s say that if there’s multiple platforms, and this platform decides, well, we’re not going to allow blah, for commercial reasons. And there’s other platforms you can go to, then I guess, you know, that’s the old thing of, you know, the, the world of possibilities. And that’s not really a problem. But it’s sort of like what’s, what’s the sentiment, you know, this is a, this is a private entity, but it’s becoming like a public utility. And even though it’s privately run the fact that it’s like a public utility, that makes it more complicated. So let me try to engage with what you’re saying in a more complicated way. If you’re talking about freedom, and the fact that government is the one with the legal, the legal monopoly on force, and that is something we should be concerned about. Okay, I agree with you. If you are saying here is this thing called social media, we want social media to be a social good, that does good things in our world, and is pleasant to use. Maybe that’s a different issue to whether we are free or not. But it is still a legitimate concern, that here is something going on in the world that basically shouldn’t have barbs or we shouldn’t be, we should be able to pick the roses without getting our thumbs sort of on the thorns or whatever. You know, it’s, it’s, as I say, it’s not an issue about freedom. But it’s an issue of is this thing actually worth doing? Is this effective? And I still think that then maybe if Dan Sanchez just wants to bang on about freedom, and ah the states got its legal monopoly on force, blah, blah, blah, okay, if that’s his argument, well, there’s a degree where I’ll back off and say alright if that’s what you want to say, but if he’s want to say, look, here’s this wonderful thing called the Internet, and the major threat to it being effective is the state and I’m sort of saying, no, that’s not the major threat to social media being effective. There’s other things going on that you’re totally blind to. So am I making sense there if you want to narrow your argument to freedom government with coercive monopoly on coercive force? Okay, but that what I guess I’m trying to say is, you’re confusing two different arguments there. And who knows, maybe Dan started out talking about personal freedom and then somehow sort of oozed into is social media effective or pleasant to use and he’s confusing those two concepts. Am I making sense there?

Gene Tunny  35:02

I think you are. Look, I mean, my view would be that we want to be careful how much we censor social media. And if there’s demand for that platform you’re talking about, then you would expect someone would try to set that up. And therefore you would sign up for some sort of moderation. So I don’t mind if people sign up for that, if they go into that. And there’s, you know, when you’re going when you join a platform, you’re conscious that yeah, there will be some moderation because people who are coming to this platform, they want to go to that dinner party you’re talking about. So I guess LinkedIn’s sort of like that, where people are talking about their professional accomplishments, and they’re sharing things on that, that seems to be well more behaved. And they they are expressing some opinions, it seems to be a lot better behaved than say, Facebook or Twitter. I mean, Twitter is bad, because it’s anonymous, isn’t it? So that’s one of the problems there. Yeah, yes. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, my view would be to look, I see the problem with trolling. I think the best thing is to ignore it. And you know, you can block trolls, can’t you?

John August  36:10

Well, look, there are ways of engaging with this. But I’m just saying I guess it’s making the whole thing a bit bit more difficult to use. And let’s just say it’s betraying the promise of social media I suppose would be my sentiment. And yes, whatever problems there are, there are workarounds. But the fact that you need to apply workarounds, I think is perhaps telling.

Gene Tunny  36:32

Right. So, John, we’ve had a good chat about your thoughts on the invisible hand episode with Dan Sanchez. And I’ll have to let Dan know, and I might see if he has any reactions in, in reply

John August  36:45

Yes maybe it would be a bit simpler if we basically just had a face to face discussion some time. Because as I say, I’m yes, I strongly disagree. But I hope at the end of the day, maybe I can buy the guy a beer you know, I hit that.

Gene Tunny  36:56

Yeah, I think he might be in Atlanta, but we could certainly have a, we can certainly have a catch up on Zoom. Or if he’s coming over here to Australia. Or if you’re in Atlanta, you could get in touch with him. Okay, so we chatted about the invisible hand. You also had some thoughts on the goldbacks episode that I did with the gentleman who was who’s setting up the he’s got his goldbacks in the state in, in Utah, which is quite fascinating. Yeah, Jeremy Corden. That was, that was a conversation I really enjoyed. And I learned a lot. So what were your reactions to that conversation? John?

John August  37:32

Let’s just say as a as a pirate, and I say people can do whatever they damn well, like, you know, that within reason, I suppose obviously, the within reason is the big rider. But if people want to have these goldbacks, well, good luck to them, they can do that. And I suppose that it’s more people who were in terms of challenging the current norm. I think that was more something to do with crypto, but let me try to focus on on the goldbacks. I sort of scratched my head over whether this really is that useful? Or whether the mainstream monetary system is that corrupt that we need to bail and go down a different path. So in that sense, I wonder about the motivation. But at another level, I say people can do that whatever they damn well, like, and I don’t think anyone who’s buying goldbacks or trading goldbacks is hurting anyone. So good luck to them. They can they can do that. Now, if people want to have goldbacks, like for, like the imminent political crisis, when money becomes worthless then all the institutions of the US unravel, and they’re sort of survivalists, and that sort of thing. And that’s the way they relate to things. Well, I guess that’s your choice, you can do that. But one of the things where I do actually defend what was the gentleman’s name, Jeremy Corden, Jeremy Corden now one of the things where I defend Jeremy Corden and this goes back into the history of currency and the history currency more relates to modern monetary theory but nevertheless, I’ll talk about it now is that once upon a time you had coins, okay, and and the thing is, before you had coins, you actually had lumps of gold or lumps of silver or lumps of whatever. And when you use them to buy stuff, you’d actually have some scales and every time you bought something’s people would weigh out the gold or the whatever. And what you then had was the king would run a stamping unit and probably stamp their their impression onto the coin. And and what you did then, basically by counting out a given number of coins, you have confidence that that was a given weight of gold. So those coins you’re gonna understand it wasn’t theat currency it was obviously the the underlying value of the metal was what made this coin valuable, but the fact it was stamped made it more convenient than the metal itself. So that was the benefit you had. But let’s look at this stamping unit the Emperor running it. Now keep in mind, we didn’t have advanced economies with like, you know the amount of money you need for anything, because like, let’s just say even if people have got the proverbial licence to print money, even if they’re forging currency on their colour printer, the colour printer costs some dollars, the paper costs, the ink costs some dollars, the the electricity costs some dollars. So even if you’re forging currency, yeah, it still costs you some stuff. And going back to the Emperor with his stamping rig, you know, someone is sitting there, measuring out the gold, putting it there applying the stamp, and I guess they probably whacked it with a mallet or something to form it into a coin. That’s a labour intensive activity. Right. So that is a reasonable thing. So the thing is that this gentleman was charging for his goldbacks. And I think that was legitimate. The other thing is that the another metaphor here is, this goes back to the time of coal, okay, you someone will buy 10 tonnes of coal, and then sell it off in bags of coal. And basically, they’d buy those 10 tonnes of coal at a very cheap rate by volume. And because they were segmenting it out into smaller amounts, you know, you’d pay basically more per lump of more per pound of coal, I guess it would have been then. And the service was taking a large amount and turning into small units. Now, let’s say you go down to the service station and buy some petrol. Now I’m sure the person who runs a servo buys that petrol at a very cheaper amount than you would put in into your car, but you are buying the, the petrol one tankful at a time, that’s convenient, that is the service that the service station is providing you, they’re taking something of a large volume, and segmenting it into smaller amounts, smaller quantities that you as consumer can then officially use, and they are charging for that. And okay, they’re going off on quite a tangent, you know, farms will actually have a very big container of petrol. And you know, they’ll have a truck that visits you know, once every, I know, weeks or months, and that will fill up the container. And that’s because for someone who is on a farm, it’s a lot of effort to drive down to the servo to top up, yeah, right. So they have to go through that. But you and I can buy our petrol one tank at a time. And the servo person running the servo is charging, and I think they’re charging legitimately, it’s a reasonable thing to do for them to charge for that. And so running all these things back, it’s a legitimate thing for this gentleman to charge for the goldback in the same way as all these things. The only issue is, is he making a monopoly profit, who is competing with him? Is that a legitimate amount of money he’s charging. And, you know, if he actually wanted to be transparent about these books, we could all sort of look at that if he wanted to be that public about and then go Oh, yeah, okay. That’s a fair return. Okay. Fair enough. If he wanted to be that transparent, the thing that would keep him totally honest, would obviously be other people competing, then again, look, notice I said, Oh, it doesn’t hurt people, people can do what they damn well, like, blah, blah, blah. But I would still say this guy has been innovative. He’s putting himself out there. He’s trying something out. I guess there’s a legitimate moral return for taking that sort of risk and just having a go. Yeah. And that’s the thing, some things, you know, you wonder, is this a monopoly profit? Or is it a legitimate return on your creativity? Bit of a rubbery distinction between those things, but I don’t know how much he’s morally entitled to charge. He’s certainly morally entitled to charge something there.

Gene Tunny  43:35

Well, I mean, that whole question of what’s he morally entitled to charge? I mean, who’s to say, I mean, this is, that would be a value judgement, wouldn’t it? So? Yeah, I mean, I asked the question, I asked him a question. Because when he will, how much of the value of the goldback is due to the gold? And it was a half? Was it a bit a bit under half? Or maybe half? Oh, okay. And I wasn’t, I should have thought more of the time. Okay. So he’s this, he’s got this new process, and he’s got some equipment, and he does need to earn a profit. Of course, I don’t have a problem with him earning a profit. And I guess this is a sort of thing where yeah competition that potentially this is something where there could be competition from other providers of goldbacks a similar type of currency.

John August  44:23

And you wonder if he’s got a patent on the technology. And yeah, my whole concern about IP, that is a pirate thing that for another time,

Gene Tunny  44:33

what about your thoughts on crypto? You had some thoughts on the crypto episodes that I’ve had recently had? Well, in the last several months or so?

John August  44:41

Yeah, yeah. Well, I suppose one of the things is that I guess I do have some understanding of the mathematics of it but I know you had one gentleman there who was trying to say, look, Bitcoin is good and Ether is about some sort of oligopoly controlling the flow of money. Yeah, and I will would differ with that based on what I understand. Now. Let’s also say there’s something called the central bank digital currency. And let me tell you some banks are actually doing trials in association with the Reserve Bank doing a central bank digital currency. And let me tell you, there are some people out there that are freaking out about this. They’re, they’re really going down the conspiracy, the conspiracy theory, rabbit hole. And I can but say, I tend to think it’s too contentious, you want to increase seriously increase the level of trust in government and the financial affairs, because a lot of people are going neurotic about this stuff. But the thing about Central Bank digital currency, and I think your guests identified this too. Central Bank digital currency is not crypto, metaphorically, it is a spreadsheet somewhere in the bowels of the Reserve Bank. And you’ve sort of put up your hand and someone changes the entry in in that spreadsheet in the Reserve Bank. Crypto is much more distributed. Like in order to run Bitcoin, you have computer many, I don’t know how long well have, let’s say, 1000s of computers around the world, but don’t quote me on that one. And the thing is, for something to be validated, more than 50% of those computers have to agree that x y Z is the case. Yeah, now that makes it very resilient against failure, very resilient against fraud, you know, various things like that. And yes, there has been fraud and dodgy stuff happening in crypto. But that’s been exchanges, not in, you know, the actual crypto itself. So your reserve bank, digital currency is a spreadsheet. Bitcoin is basically a consensus thing where you have to have more than 50% of those computers to say that certain thing is the case. And what that mean, that means it’s resilient, it means that it’s actually not subject to the whims of government policy not subject to the whims of the Reserve Bank, crypto is or bitcoin is, and it will continue to roll along, according to its algorithm that was predetermined however long ago. So so that’s a story with crypto. That’s one that’s a story with Bitcoin, I should say. And at the other end of the scale, you’ve got your central bank digital currency, which is just in so notice this thing, it’s a single point of failure. If someone hacks into the reserve bank, it can be compromised. You cannot meaningfully hack Bitcoin, the only way you can turn bitcoin is to control more than 50% of the computers around the world are doing Bitcoin. Right? Right. So and then the thing that’s in the middle is Ether. And my understanding is ether is still run by a pool of like, you know, let’s say 1000 1000 computers. And what you can say is that, okay, it’s in between the two, it’s not a total dispersion like Bitcoin. But equally, the idea that ether could somehow be swung by vested interests is hard to believe, right? Let’s, let’s say for the sake of argument, 500 people, and Ether is mostly running by its predetermined algorithm. You know, it’s hard to believe certainly, you had a guest who was critical of Ether as a quid, I sort of say it’s in between the point is, now the other thing that’s also an issue is, is our mainstream financial system that corrupt or that bad? Now, your guests were basically they were expressing their concerns. But I tend to think, look, you can say that this financial system, our democracy is messed up, and you can bail or you can say, Well, why is democracy not working to the point where we might have these dodgy policy outcomes and spend some time thinking about that? You know, it’s I have this feeling that they’re, that they’re, they’re bailing without due consideration, I suppose, right? In a sense, if people are free to do that. Now, the other thing they talk about, they do talk about the threat of banks suddenly denying us access to our funds. And people have some concern about that. So far, banks haven’t done that. I’m not saying this is a bad thing. But there are narky things like garnishee orders, like if you have a debt, yeah, you can actually make an arrangement. And the banks will sort of basically grab some, grab some of your money as it could flow through your account, and you have no control over that. That happens, but maybe that’s a legitimate thing for the government to enforce. But the point is, the stories of the banks being in some way arbitrarily abusing their power. I don’t think that really happens. I think the concern is overstated, but it’s a matter of judgement. If you really are that upset with the banks and you want to go your own way. Well, fair enough.

Gene Tunny  49:48

John, just on that, I mean, there have been some cases where the banks have denied access to funds to people, where the US Treasury has issued one of those what does it call the, there was that Russian businessman or was he? was he killed? Yeah.

John August  50:05

So it’s the whole thing of Ukraine being pulled out of the SWIFT network. There’s a few dodgy things like that. But, but yeah, okay. You’re, you’re telling me something new? I must say,

Gene Tunny  50:14

No. I mean, so one of the one of the reasons people would, they’re concerned, and maybe this is something that’s a bit of an edge case, or it’s an extreme sort of scenario. But there are situations where government can tell banks deny people access to the funds. And you might argue, Well, okay, well, that’s a good thing, because these people are siding with a dictator, or they’re associated with a rogue regime. So fair enough that

John August  50:42

well, if that is a concern for you, then maybe crypto is a way of dealing with that. Now, let me say that there is there’s there’s one legitimate use case I can think of for crypto, that let’s say you’re a Filipino worker working in Saudi Arabia, or United Arab Emirates, or something like that, you want to get your money back home? My understanding is if you can play the game with crypto, you can actually do it with a much lower overhead than a means of international money transfer. Yeah, I mean, there’s cute stories about in Africa, I think telephone credits on mobile phones become used as currency. Now, again, that’s a centralised currency, like the spreadsheet at the Reserve Bank, but it’s still an interest in digital currency that sort of used instead of money. So there’s a use case there. Now the other thing I would say is that maybe crypto is keeping Visa card and so on honest. Now one of the things about if you’re I want to I’m not sure on the exact details, but if you are I wanted to transact in crypto would probably have to pay the miners like $100 to process our transaction. But that’s a fixed amount. These sorts of charges you a percentage, while you would imagine the amount of computational power to process my purchase of $1, or $1,000 is the same. While with crypto, it’s a fixed charge. Also, the banks run some pretty strange trade offs involving fraud because the calculations are there’s a nonzero quantity of fraud, which is acceptable, because otherwise you just make life too difficult and things don’t happen. So there’s some complicated trade offs that banks are making. And what I’m saying is maybe crypto is keeping the banks honest, is keeping Visa honest. But what I will also say the thing weird thing about crypto is once upon a time, you had all the evangelists, the people who really believed in an alternative currency that wasn’t controlled by the banks, or the government, and they really believe that whether they were right or wrong, they really believed it. But now I think you’ve got a lot of snake oil merchants, you know, people who just want to make dollars. And the scene has become dominated by the get rich quick people, rather than the genuine evangelists. And for me, that sort of changed the whole feeling of it. Yeah, you know, if it never left the, you know, you’ve got to be a nerd to really get into crypto. On the one hand, it’s limiting the market, but it would also have been kept its purity, you know, so yeah, there’s some stories there. Okay, so that’s a bit of a ramble. But I hope I’ve sort of said said some useful things about crypto.

Gene Tunny  53:16

It’s made me think, John, I like it. I’ll just ask one more question, because we’ll have to wrap up soon, unfortunately. But I know we could keep on talking. The thing I was thinking of was the Magnitsky Act. I don’t know if you’ve heard of that, which was there was a bill passed by US Congress and reading from Wikipedia signed into law by Obama in December 2012, intending to punish Russian officials responsible for the death of Russian tax lawyer, Sergei Magnitsky in a Moscow prison in 2009, and also to grant permanent normal trade relations status to Russia. Hang on. And then there’s another act of 2016 it authorises the US government to sanction those foreign officials worldwide, that a human rights offenders freeze their assets and ban them from entering entering the US. Now, I don’t have a problem with any of that, because some of these people probably deserve it. Yeah. But there is this concern that the banking system could be subject to political influence.

John August  54:11

Well, the thing is, at some level, how corrupt is democracy? Do we have faith in democracy? Do we have faith in the means by which the US government makes those decisions? Now this is going off on a whole ruddy other rabbit hole, but the US government has form in terms of meddling in global affairs. You know, there’s Diego Garcia. Goodness me, I think there was, you know, in El Salvador, that’s right. 1986 there were US trained trained soldiers that killed some priests and nuns, a whole family. The list will go on in terms of like the US doing dodgy shit around the planet. And it’s sort of like you know, they give a lot of foreign aid but equally they like, they like they run a protection racket. You got to pay your protection money along the way to participate in the rules of US rules based order and they, you know, they ignore the International Criminal Court and yada, yada yadi. So, look, the US does have a dodgy record. But notice I’ve shifted the ground a bit I’ve sort of said, look, what is the legitimacy of the US in broader terms, and it’s got its things to criticise, maybe those decisions you are making are valid decisions for the US government to make. And yeah, this is I guess, I’m not really answering any question. It’s getting a bit messy and awkward but yeah, if you think that participating in this global framework, and giving the US that sort of discretion is too much, then maybe crypto is the way to go.

Gene Tunny  55:43

Or any government. I mean, I don’t mean to pick on the US. It’s just that it’s the you know, the dominant country. And that’s, that’s very topical. Finally, because this will have to be the last question. What about the concerns people have about CBDC?, you mentioned, I’m trying to understand what your response is. You said, well, there are some people who may be there. You know, there are conspiracy theories about what it is. But you also said that this is CBDC, but you then also said that, are you concerned about political stability? Are you concerned that this is something that will make people more distrustful of government?

John August  56:21

Yes, I guess so, let’s say, look, this may not be what government is up to but there are people who are out there who are saying the banks and the governments are trying to wean us off cash, yes. So we do not use cash. And whatever, whatever these people are thinking they’re thinking government does not have good reasons for having that agenda. They wanting to wean us off cash, so they have more control of us. Right now, there’s a certain conspiracy theory, rabbit hole here, but a reasonable number of people. I don’t know what the proportion is, you’d have to talk to people who know more than me, but some proportion of people are very concerned about the government trying to stop people from using cash. And they see that as part of an agenda. And obviously, you can have your international connections. I do want to do not want to go there. But you know, there’s this whole constellation of conspiratorial concerns, and the government going down the route of central bank digital currency is feeding these people’s concerns. And whether you say that’s right or wrong, people are going to get very neurotic and conspiratorial about this.

Gene Tunny  57:28

Okay, yeah. All right. John August. Any any final thoughts before we wrap up, but it’s been great hearing your reactions to recent episodes, and it makes me think a lot more about these issues. So I appreciate it.

John August  57:43

Okay. Well, I’ve got many more things to say. But that’s probably the appropriate for the present, I think. Yes.

Gene Tunny  57:49

We’ll catch up again soon. John, for sure.

John August  57:55

Sounds good.

Gene Tunny 57:59

Okay, thank you. Thank you.

Righto thanks for listening to this episode of Economics Explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact@economicsexplored.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

58:42

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Credits

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Categories
Podcast episode

Exploring the US Banking Crisis with Addison Wiggin – EP192

Economics Explored host Gene Tunny interviews Addison Wiggin, a New York Times bestselling author and market economist, about the US banking crisis. Addison shares insights into the origins and impacts of the crisis, and discusses the future of the US economy and financial markets. Listeners can download Addison’s recent report “Anatomy of a Bust: Winners and Losers in the Banking Crisis of 2023” for free via a link in the show notes. 

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple PodcastsSpotify, and Stitcher.

About Addison Wiggin

Three-time New York Times best-selling author, Addison Wiggin, is a 30-year market economist with a passion for the real-world impact of financial markets on our lives.

Addison is the author and host of The Wiggin Sessions, a podcast that connects key thinkers and industry experts for a deep dive into history, politics, and economics. Some of his most accomplished works as a writer, publisher, and filmmaker include the New York Times Best Seller The Demise Of The Dollar and the documentary I.O.U.S.A, an exposé on the national debt crisis in America.

What’s covered in EP192

  • Addison’s background and how he came to the conclusion that the US financial system is in danger of collapse. (1:53)
  • Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase rates again? (10:46)
  • The uncertain lender of last resort: The Federal Reserve. (17:11)
  • The Fed’s job is to make sure fewer people have jobs. (21:52)
  • Banking crisis and the failure of regulation. (26:21)
  • FDIC and confidence. (32:00)
  • Why it’s important to understand how booms and busts even take place. (37:07)
  • Cryptocurrency as part of the story. (41:47)
  • What has happened to the dollar since 1913, when the US Federal Reserve was established. (46:41)

Links relevant to the conversation

Special download link to Anatomy of a Bust for Economics Explored listeners:

https://jointhesessions.com/ee/

Presentation by Addison that Gene mentions early in the episode:

Anatomy of A Bust: Banks Go First | Special Presentation by Addison Wiggin 

Transcript:
Exploring the US Banking Crisis with Addison Wiggin – EP192

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:06

Welcome to the Economics Explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning into the show. In this episode, I chat about the US banking crisis with Addison Wiggin. He’s a New York Times bestselling author and market economist and commentator with three decades of experience. Allison has his own podcast the Wigan sessions, in which he talks to key thinkers and industry experts for a deep dive in history, politics and economics is the author of the best selling the demise of the dollar, and one of the writers of the 2008 documentary I O USA. Thanks to Addison for providing economics explore listeners with a free copy of his recent report, anatomy of a bust winners and losers in the banking crisis of 2023. I’ve included a link in the show notes so you can download it as well as sign up for Addison’s content if you’d like to read and hear more from him. Personally, I think Addison, someone with following if you’re interested in the US economy and financial markets, and if you’re listening to this show you probably okay, let’s get into the episode. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Addison Wiggin on the US banking crisis. Addison Wiggin, thanks for joining me.

Addison Wiggin  01:53

Yeah, no worries, I’m happy to actually meet you. As I was saying before, I’ve been forwarded some of your material in the past. So I know your name. And I feel like it’s a good opportunity for us to banter a bit about economics.

Gene Tunny  02:07

Absolutely. Thanks, Addison. And I’ve, yeah, I’ve seen the very know your research. And you’ve, you’ve been doing a lot of deep analysis of what’s been happening in banking and what’s been happening in financial markets. And you’re very keen to chat with you about that. In particular, I’ve come across a recent presentation, you’ve given anatomy of a bust, banks go first. And in that presentation, you make the argument that, well, we’re in a panic of the panic of 2023. America’s financial system is in danger of collapse. We’re here to protect ourselves. Would you be able to take us through what leads you to this conclusion? Addison, please. And also, perhaps maybe to begin with, what a bit about your background? How’d you? I mean, you’ve had, as I mentioned, you’ve had deep experience of this, it sounds like you’d be looking at these issues for decades. Can you tell us a bit about your story and how you come to this conclusion, this threat of collapse, please?

Addison Wiggin  03:17

Yeah, absolutely. I’ve been studying booms and busts for a long time. Since the mid 90s. This is literally the only work I’ve done in my adult life. And just to do a shameless plug right at the beginning, I just published a book called The demise of the dollar, which looks at booms and busts as they pertain to fiat currencies in the world. And US dollar is deeply connected to the Aussie dollar. And I addressed some of that, and also, the dollar is a reserve currency of the world. So like even the Aussie banks or New Zealand or Japan or European banks, US and China as well, which is a big part of the story, use the dollar to store their wealth in. So there’s, there’s a symbiotic international connection between my currency and yours. And that’s what that’s what I’ve been interested in for this particular book. But I’ve also been studying booms and busts going all the way back to the famous ones like the tulip bubble and the Mississippi scheme from John La, back in the early 1700s. And then the South Sea bubble which the bankers from from London just ripped off John Maas idea and then they went bust too. So booms and busts are pretty common in the financial cycle of of our lives. And we’re we have just gone through one and that’s what anatomy of a bust. It’s just a special report we put out because it was interesting to have our very own movement boss how Ben right in front of our faces, it starts really in 2018, where a lot of people were using low interest rates that the Fed was fed had kept interest rates low to recover from the 2008 bus for such a long period of time, that there’s like a whole group of traders who grew up in a world where interest rates were at zero or less than that. And so money was free, and they were speculating on all kinds of things. And one of the things they speculated on was cryptocurrencies in 2018. We had this massive bubble in, in cryptocurrencies and a lot of the banks that started failing in March of 2023, which we’re still I maintain, we’re still in that crunch. And I’ll explain why I think we’re still in it, and why we don’t talk about it that much anymore. But a lot of the banks like Silicon Valley Bank grabbed the headlines when they went bust in 48 hours, because they had invested all of the money they were getting from tech entrepreneurs. They had invested it in treasuries, and then the Fed started trying to battle interest rates. And they didn’t account they didn’t either believe the Fed would they didn’t have any risks. There actually was no risk officer on the payroll at Silicon Valley Bank at the time. And they didn’t realise what the impact of an aggressive rate rate hike policy by the Fed was going to be. And that was happening simultaneously with the collapse of X FTX, which was the crypto currency trading firm that a lot of tech startups had their money, had their money. So when they when FTX went bust, they had to pull their money out as fast as they could, or they just lost their money. And in the meantime, the startups were being also financed by Silicon Valley Bank, notably, and they needed their money back to keep their their startups going. So the conflicts of different trends follow the theme of booms and busts that we’ve seen throughout history. So when when it was happening, I was like, Oh, my God, this is our very own like we could write about, it’s actually happening right in front of us. So it’s, that’s what the special report is about is like how that actually happened. And when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, it collapsed in 48 hours, because all these people wanted to take their money out to cover their own losses in crypto, that was technically what was robbing and they were just yanking their money out. And even though as you know, as credible bankers, we would look at the way that Silicon Valley had put their assets, more than 50% of their assets were in treasuries, which are meant to be, you know, the risk free asset that banks should hold anyway. But they didn’t calculate for the rising interest rates from the Fed to combat inflation. And then when there was a run on the bank, that’s what we call it. It wasn’t I mean, it’s a modern day, extraction of digits really. But when people started taking their money out, Silicon Valley Bank had to sell their treasuries at a loss. And it it happened very quickly. No one thought that with the FDIC, which is the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation that was set up by the Treasury to like help small banks, stay solvent help, depositors stay solvent, nobody thought that can actually happen anymore. The FDIC was set up in the 30s, to combat some of the forces that were going on in Great Depression. And then the Treasury itself gets together they get all the Wall Street banks together, and they then they construct these bailout plans like what they did for first republic. So those, all of those things happen, and they were grabbing the headlines from March until like the beginning of May. But then our debt, what we call the debt ceiling debate. I prefer to call it the debt default debate over the dancin, and nobody’s really paying attention to the banks anymore, but the underlying issues of the Fed fighting inflation and over capitalization in treasuries. There’s 36 banks in the US that are still under FDIC protection, watch conservatorship, whatever you call it. And then there’s a bunch of other banks that are borderline if what happened in March where people started pulling their money out of banks as a sector in on Wall Street than those banks are going to be in trouble too. There’s a couple others that I’ve been keeping an eye on that that have the word PacWest was one of them. And they’re just banks that are lending to more risky clients. And then depending on the depending on treasuries to rule out there, or to keep their their investments safe. And depending on how long the Fed keeps raising rates, which I think they’re going to raise them again, because inflation is not under control. It’s not only under control here in the US, it’s not under control. In Australia, I think Australia was getting really aggressive recently. Why don’t they? Well,

Gene Tunny  10:46

they increased rates more than people expected. There was a surprise rate hike. And now the the question is whether they will increase again, we’ve got a Reserve Bank meeting next week, there’s it’s a bit unclear, there’s a lot of debate about what the bank will do. Everyone expects that they’re going to have to increase at least one more time by the end of the year, possibly two. It all depends on what’s happening with inflation, we’ve got a monthly indicator that on through the year terms has, has increased or as worsen. But there’s a debate about well, what it’s it’s very noisy month to month. So it’s difficult to read much into that we need to see what happens with a quarterly figure. They’ll be watching services, inflation, so goods inflation has been coming down but services inflation is has been rising. So that’s and now we’ve got a minimum wage hike of six to 8% or something, depending on the actual, whether you’re right on the minimum or if you’re on an award. So yeah, there are, there are concerns about the future of inflation.

Addison Wiggin  11:52

I’d like to ask you a question. I spent some time in Australia. And also we had an office there for a while. So we were trying to manage our own finances there. And it might just be a myopic point of view of my own, because I am an American and the Federal Reserve is what it is. But when the Fed makes moves, often the Ozzie bank or like Japan or EU will follow, like a month later, if to you to think that that’s true. I don’t want to sound like an arrogant American, which I probably am, but But it always feels like the Fed is sort of like the central banks of the world.

Gene Tunny  12:30

Yeah, that’s true. It’s not automatic. It doesn’t always happen. But certainly one of the things that our central bank is conscious of is what’s happening with the exchange rate. And if if we keep our interest rates too low, then that leads to a depreciation of the the Australian dollar. And that’s bad for inflation. So we start importing inflation. So that’s something that they are conscious of. And when the Fed started lifting, was it last March or March?

Addison Wiggin  13:04

A little over a year ago? Yeah. Yeah. And

Gene Tunny  13:07

so the first few rate moves increases by our central bank, we’re pretty much in line with what the Fed was doing. And I mean, my take on an Earth in Michael Knox, who’s a commentator here, and he’s, he’s Morgan’s financial chief economist. I think he’s one of the best market economists in Australia. That was his view on it that, you know, by essentially copying the Fed that they had, the Fed was moving. So our, our guys had to I mean, we read our, our central bank, really, I don’t know if asleep at the wheels the right way to phrase it. But our first rate increase didn’t happen until I think it was May last year. And so it was a couple of months after the Fed, the Bank of England had gone earlier. I think Reserve Bank of New Zealand really got on to it early. But yeah, I think our central bank just wasn’t concerned enough about the risk of inflation. They were too much in that secular stagnation paradigm that they had, prior to the pandemic and those that decade or so they thought, Oh, well, we’re in this world of permanently lower interest rates, and there’s no no concern about inflation. We don’t have to worry about that anymore. For various reasons.

Addison Wiggin  14:23

I mean, that’s literally what thought some of these regional banks, asleep at the wheel was the Fed got really aggressive picket quickly, and even in the books that I’ve been writing? So I have this one, but I’m also looking at another one that’s kind of like the political analysis of how we got to a position where we have 31 trillion in debt, which is just ridiculous, right? Looking at the trajectory of Fed policy from really from 1987 When, when there was a stock market crash and Alan green The internet just become our Fed chair, he dropped rates as a response so that people could get free money in and prop up their balance sheets. That has been the response since 1987. Until now, and no one I like they caught a lot of banks sleeping, when they started raising rates as aggressively as they did, and they were afraid of 1980 81 scenario where inflation would just get out of control. There’s no anchor to the dollar. And everything is based on the dollar index, which is a basket of currencies and including the Aussie dollar that determines what the value is. There is a tone. It’s just astounding to me, actually, with all the history that we have with banking, and even the Federal Reserve since 1913. Like there could be backers who still have jobs. what was gonna happen? Yes. Well,

Gene Tunny  16:04

I mean, it’s an but they play an important role in the economy. But yes, there’s a lot of monetary mischief with a lot of mistakes that a an aid for sure. Absolutely. I like to ask Allison about. You mentioned that this started in? Was it 2018? So you think this started before the pandemic? Is that right? And then the pandemic, all the policies during the pandemic made it worse or contributed to the instability?

Addison Wiggin  16:30

Yeah, well, I would say, though, is that there were separate events, I think that the policies really started in about 2012, when we were seeing QE two, meeting that the Fed was still buying bonds in the market, or in even actually buying up mortgage backed securities in response to what the federal what the, what caused the crash in 2008, which was a global event also, because all the big pension funds and hedge funds, they’re all interconnected globally. So when when we ran into our housing crisis in 2008, it affected everyone. And we saw the ripple effect really quickly. And what the Fed did to head that off, was they dropped the interest rates, we had zero to negative interest rate real interest rates for a number of years between 2012 and 2018. But they were also buying up assets in the market, they were buying bonds in the treasury market to support bonds, because they needed to fund the government. And then they were also buying, they were actually buying assets on Wall Street, which is like, that’s an extreme measure. The bank is not supposed to be buying assets to prop up the market. But anyway, so there was a period of time where we had zero, I mean, money was free. And there was the like, I like to phrase the, the uncertain lender of last resort, that’s what they call the Federal Reserve, you never know what they’re going to do. But in the end, they’ll come in and bail out, you know, they, if they had to, they bail out, gee, JP Morgan, which has literally the fifth largest GDP of any economy of the world, and it’s a private bank. So they would come in and bail them out. That’s just thinking

Gene Tunny  18:25

that on that point about had this, what was it the unexpected lender of last resort?

Addison Wiggin  18:32

Charles Charles, my book I forgot his last name, but he wrote us. Yeah, he wrote an entire book about there needs to be a lender of last resort, but it has to be uncertain. You can’t count on them. You just have to know that they’re there in case the shit hits the fan. And yeah, and that’s what the Fed has been trying to do. But what they’ve been telegraphing what they telegraphed from 2012 until 2018, was we’re gonna keep rates low, and we’re gonna keep buying assets to keep the market propped up. And the beneficiaries of that policy are Wall Street banks, big ones, you know, yeah, Oregon, Citigroup, Bank of America, those companies, those those corporations are beneficiaries of just an extended period of ridiculous monetary policy. And a whole generation of bankers grew up in that in the environment where they believed that the money was just going to be free forever. So when the Fed turn, turned around and started trying to combat inflation, then we started having a serious problem. And the first people that got taken out, were the regional banks who weren’t paying attention to risk policy at all. So that’s why I say it started in in 2018, because there was a big boom in cryptocurrencies stable coins. We’re coming out. Bitcoin had already like fluctuated up to 60,000 and then dropped and like it was already an object of speculation and Aetherium was sort of like its step cousin, you know, it was doing its thing. But there was a lot of money getting pushed into the market because of low interest rates, that tech firms and Wall Street banks the like, and new new banks, like the FTX exchange that that was built, that was only founded in 2017. Like it became one of the largest traders have actual money, dollars to crypto currency in like, under two years, there was a lot of money flowing into the system. And that’s when if you follow Austrian economics, like I do, but a lot of other people do, too. I’m not making any kind of claim to it. But all the mistakes that are made get, they happen in the blue, when there’s money, that’s cheap credit, and people are spending money on things that they don’t understand. That’s exactly what tech entrepreneurs especially were doing, because they were excited about this new money that we could trade. It wasn’t traceable. And then banks grew up around it, that silver gate was one Silicon Valley Bank was another first republic was another pack glass was involved. And so when the tech entrepreneurs started getting nervous about their, their investments, or even their own companies, they wanted to remove the money from banks, and was sort of targeting Silicon Valley Banks specifically because they were getting a lot of deposits. And they didn’t have to loan out money to make money. So they were buying treasuries. And then when the Fed started tackling inflation, which itself, inflation itself was a result of 10 years of, of low interest rates, like we had, of course, we had the pandemic, and then we had the war in Ukraine, which cut off some supply chain, so it created like pain points. But at the same time, there was so much money flowing around in the system, that the natural outcome just in economic terms of that much money flowing into the system is that prices go up. The amount of money chasing goods is more than what the goods have, in what I would call intrinsic value. So it just costs more if you want gas, it cost more if you want eggs, eggs were a big deal. In the US. They were in, in Australia, but they were a big deal for like two years, because they went from like, I don’t know, an average of three bucks for 12 eggs to something like seven bucks. And people were like, What the hell, you know, I need an egg a day. And now it costs Yeah, three times as much. So that’s that’s the way that people feel inflation, but the cause of inflation, inflation is rising prices, but the cause of it is money supply money going in to the system. And they did that in reaction to the 2008 housing crisis, they were pouring money into the system and making it cheap for years to a degree where people just started thinking that was the new norm. But when Powell got in place, and he started raising rates, there was a lot of bankers, especially who were like, Oh, he’s not going to do that. Because this is the new norm. And it wasn’t the new norm, because there’s they still don’t have inflation controlled. So my guess is they’re going to raise another quarter point and they meet again. And then that’s going to ripple out to banks in Australia, in Japan. And mostly, those are the three that I looked at Australia, Japan and EU. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  24:14

it’s quite quite possible. I saw that the US had a good was a good jobs figure was was that what I saw? Yeah. And so that they’re saying the economy is more robust than they expected. And so yeah, they’re doing isn’t it? conundrum a little bit that the feds job is just to make sure that less people have jobs. Yeah, well, that’s the Yeah, that’s the Elizabeth Warren take. And then she was trying to pin it really gets stuck in a jay Powell over that, I think in the in Congress, wasn’t she? Oh, I’m trying to remember. Was it Powell or was it she was given?

Addison Wiggin  24:53

That was a couple of weeks ago, she was giving a speech in front of Congress, but she was taking Jay Powell to test. So he wasn’t actually even talking to him. Right. But that’s just a weird thing that that the feds job has suddenly become too slow the economy down, make sure that more people are unemployed, so that the government can then take care of them. It’s like, it’s, it’s not a free economy, like we like to think that America runs a free economy, we don’t run a free economy at all. And their goal right now is to slow everything down. And then we got the jobs report that you’re talking about. It was, I believe, is yesterday or the day before, it was more robust than what they were expecting. So they’re saying, oh, yeah, the economy is still growing, we gotta raise rates more to slow it down. Like, if we got a jobs report that wasn’t as positive as it was, then the stock market would have actually rallied. But when the draw four came out, down because people were like, Oh, that means they’re gonna raise rates again, we can’t borrow money cheaply again. It’s like, yeah, Pretzel Logic to me. But it’s kind of fun in a way to follow it, because it’s like, it doesn’t really make that much sense.

Gene Tunny  26:19

Yeah, yeah. I better get back on to banking, because I want to ask you about where we’re going there. And this banking crisis. There are a couple of things I just wanted to just quick things a good to get your views on. So you mentioned that this SBB didn’t have a Risk Officer. Is that right? Which I find extraordinary. Is that a failure of regulation? Yeah, I

Addison Wiggin  26:42

only found it in passing. So there were two kind of oversight errors that took place. They didn’t have a Risk Officer evaluating what the impact of rapidly rising interest rates would be on their the holdings that were like the core of the bank. That was one thing. And I think it was just in transition or some of the there wasn’t somebody in that position at the bank for like a year. And that was the year that the Fed started aggressively raising interest rates. And at the same time, no, nobody in the bank thought that the Fed actually pretty much nobody in the economy, though did Wall Street banks didn’t think that they would do it either raise interest rates as aggressively as they did. So even while it was happening, we were like, Oh, they’re going to stop. So there was a lot of speculation of when they were going to pause or when they were going to pivot. I remember back in even before the banking crisis started, the big phrase in the headlines was, when is the Fed going to pivot, meaning they’re going to stop raising and they’re going to turn around and start dropping among regional banks anyway, the first ones to get under stress. They didn’t have people that were taking the Fed seriously at their word, the Fed was saying we’re going to we’re going to fight inflation until it’s done, which is a tough battle. And nobody believed that. So when the cost of treasuries went down, and the interest rates went up, it was harder for a bank, like I just use Silicon Valley Bank, because it was so pronounced. It was harder for them to raise the capital to pay back their depositors when they wanted their money back. And a lot of those depositors had just lost money in the collapse of fts. So it was just sort of an act of boom and bust, you know, a line of love crumbs from what was going on in the crypto market to what happened to the regional banks. And then you saw the entire banking sector get whacked in the market, like, there were other banks that were reasonably sound that were getting taken down because everyone was trying to get out of the banking sector. So when their stocks get are getting punished by institutional investors and by pension funds, then that messes with their balance sheets, as well. And the only reason we haven’t been hearing about it in since I actually tried to pinpoint it was May 18, that the debt ceiling debate sort of took over the headlines. All the issues with the banks still exist. And that was really just a speculation on my part. But if they didn’t, for some stupid reason, come to a political agreement. On the debt ceiling, we would have seen a massive wipe out of bets because Treasuries are supposed to be risk free ish. I mean, they’re about as risk free of an investment you can make other than maybe gold or precious metals, and banks had piled into treasuries for so long because it was cheap. And it was easy and it was risk free. If we had a debt ceiling debate, I mean, that the vault if that debate failed, and we had a default, then treasuries would have been become an object of speculation, like other assets in the market, people would be like, I’m betting they’re going to do this, I’m going to bet that they’re going to do that, and the risk free part of that, where you store your money would have disappeared, that would have been a nightmare for a lot of smaller banks. And then the thing that is kind of a nightmare too, would be that JP Morgan, Citibank, Bank of America, the big Wall Street firms would have just gobbled up all of the, those assets at pennies on the dollar, which is exactly what they did with SBB. And with first republic, they just went in and just took all the assets for like, it was three cents on the dollar.

Gene Tunny  31:04

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  31:39

Now back to the show. So can I ask Allison, where are we going? Now? I mean, over the next six months or a year or so will we see more banks fail? Will we see a contagion? Or will we see impacts on the broader economy? Where do you think this is all going?

Addison Wiggin  32:00

Well, I’ll answer that in two ways. There is a certain level of confidence in the FDIC to like bank to back individual depositors. So like the fear of bank runs is probably abated a bit. Because the FDIC and Janet Yellen to the Secretary of Treasury, she has been going out saying no, we’re not gonna bail everyone out. But if it gets bad, we’ll bail some people out like she’s being that lender of last resort. So I think that the crisis part has abated. But that hasn’t fixed any of the the challenges that banks are facing right now with rising interest rates, and the battle against inflation in the uncertainty of of how committed the Powell Fed is going to be to that. So it would. So that’s why I say I’m going to answer in two ways. One, I detailed all of this special report that we were talking about anatomy of the anatomy of a bust, this is exactly how it happens. And I actually got that phrase from Garrett Garrett, who was writing about how all the banks failed from 1932. Until about they were still failing into the 50s. So they failed for a long time. But the three banks that failed in march into the early part of May, were larger in capital by percentage than all 25 banks that failed in 1932. So like, that doesn’t happen by mistake. And that also doesn’t happen without repercussions. And I expect that that we’re going to be talking about banking places like three years from now, because it hasn’t worked itself out yet. And they’re still trying to fight inflation. So so I don’t know if we’ll have a panic or a crisis period like we had between the beginning of March and mid May. But I think the tension is still there. And it’s definitely something that we want to pay attention to. Because the banking system is the the bedrock for all of the other stuff that we get, like when we buy and sell stocks, when we get mortgages, when we buy cars, send our kids to school and stuff like that that system needs to be. We need to have confidence in that system. And I don’t think it’s there yet. Brought we get a paper version of the confidence from speeches from Janet Yellen. And we forgot her name already, but that was the woman who runs the FDIC. But it’s just a fact the FDIC has like 300. Now they have $37 billion to support $17 trillion worth of deposits like it’s It’s, it’s absurd. Other than me and I’ve written this to this is it’s a competence game. Like, just like the way people, you know, take advantage of retirees because they gain their competence and competence gain is what it is. It’s a it’s a sham. Yeah. Yeah, right now the government is running a competence, that literally people have confidence that the government will figure this out. And so they’re they’re just biding their time. And what are they going to do next? My, my guess is they’re going to drop interest rates. As soon as there’s like a real crisis, they’ll drop interest rates, and now get another speculative boom going on Wall Street. And usually what happens when, when that happens is that mutates into bubbles in other markets, too, like Australia always benefits from booms in the commodities market. And China always benefits from new tech development and the Europeans benefit from new speculation in travel and tourism. Like it’s it’s almost predictable. What’s going to happen next,

Gene Tunny  36:11

abroad. Okay, so this is your report anatomy of a bar stock and put a link in the show notes to that. Can I add in just trying to think about what the risks are? I mean, you make the case that more banks are probably going to fail. What do you think the chances of something like 2008 happening again, or something worse than that? What would you put the probability of that ad in the next couple of years

Addison Wiggin  36:36

right now, I’d say it’s pretty low. Because one of the things that happens is like human beings that the people who run the government also learn. And they did what they thought they had to do in 2008, I’ve written about this many times, the Paulson, delivered a three page memorandum to Congress and said it at like midnight, and said, You have to bail out these banks, otherwise, the entire global economy is going to fall apart. There’s three pages, and they just followed it. So I think they’ve learned that through monetary policy, and also working in concert with other federal, like the Federal Reserve system of the world, that they can mitigate crises. But that doesn’t mean the problems aren’t still there. So that’s why it’s important to understand how booms and busts even take place, you can’t keep interest rates at zero for 10 years, and then expect that no inflation is going to pop up. But it is ridiculous. But it’s worth understanding the mechanisms behind the banks and whatnot, because that’s the that’s where the money flows, if that’s how the markets work. That’s how, you know, they determine interest rates for all kinds of things, credit cards, and student loans, and banks and cars and all that kind of stuff. The economy functions on credit. And banks are the source of that credit. And they’re all connected to the Federal Reserve System. So it’s worth paying attention to what they say. And I hate that. I don’t like politics. And I don’t like the banking system. But I warn people that they ignore those things at their peril. Because when you need to do something financially in your lives, you’re sort of dependent on decisions made by people who live far away from you, and don’t have your interests in mind.

Gene Tunny  38:45

Yeah, yeah, I just want to try to understand what this all means. So does this mean that, like, we’re in a situation where the Federal Reserve and the government is going to have to continuously? Well, maybe not continuously, but every now and then bail out the banks? And, you know, we’re gonna keep trying keep interest rates low, keep the flow of credit going? And therefore, ultimately, this is inflationary? Are we back in? Because we had a period of very low inflation? Are we going to be in a period of higher inflation for for longer than we expect? Is that one of the arguments was that a conclusion?

Addison Wiggin  39:22

Yeah, my conclusion is that we would, it’s not a conclusion because it’s an ongoing story. But we’re going to be in a period of inflation longer than, you know, the headline news tells us like, you can’t just stop inflation. And once it starts, it’s very hard to stop. And I actually got that quote, I, I interviewed, I did a documentary about 15 years ago, and I interviewed Paul Volcker, who was famously the inflation fighter of the early 1980s. He was the Fed chair at the time. And when he said to me, he said two things that have stuck with me he said a lot of other things and I published all buddy But, but he said a couple other things that are two things that have really stuck with me one he’s like, actually, I’m going to set the stage. So this is after walking past a couple of cartoon pictures of him that he had framed in his office of him like turning off the inflation spigot. And then another one where he was like wielding a sword and a shield, and he was like fighting inflation. So he was kind of like a caricature of that time. And that was the worst inflation that the world had seen in since the late 1800s, since the panic of 1893. And the reason was, we had gotten off the Bretton Woods, dollar peg to gold that there was a lot of reasons why it happened. But when I spoke to him, and this is on camera, and in the interviews that I’ve published, he’s, well, first of all, once inflation gets started, it’s very hard to stop. Because it, it creates, like a psychosis in people where they start thinking, if I don’t spend my money for that refrigerator, in June, by September, it’s going to be 30, Luxmore, or something like that. And they start thinking like they have to spend their money now. And that creates inflation, psychosis of sorts where people are just spending more money more quickly, because they think it’s going to be worth less later. And you’d like if the Feds goal is to slow down the economy, that inflation psychosis works against any Fed policy that they can put together.

Gene Tunny  41:43

Okay, just a couple of things. Because yeah, it’s great conversation quickly. What about crypto? You mentioned crypto as part of the story?

Addison Wiggin  41:51

Well, I have a theory about crypto. And it’s the same thing that it’s the same philosophy I have about the internet itself is that we had in 2001, we had a big boom in Internet stocks, like even Toronto, like right now. But the company that makes insulation for houses was doing fibre optic and they dropped the.com on the end of their name. They weren’t even a tech company. And they they exploded in value. Yeah. What’s the pink insulation that we all use? But I don’t even know why I’m drawing a blank on the net. But it’s because it’s a big installation. The point I’m trying to make is that during the.com, boom, there were just ridiculous investment being made. Yeah, all kinds of things. And then they busted. But we were, in the end, after all, the detritus fell to the floor, and people sort of like woke up from their hangovers. We ended up with internet and things like zoom, like I’m talking to you from Australia. Right now. I’m in Baltimore. And these things are possible because of that massive innovation and the investment that went into that period. Like that it even with a Gora, the company I’ve been working with for a number of years. We exploded when we went online, and we benefited greatly from the innovation of email, or changed our lives. So I have the same sort of perspective on crypto, is that I think it’s speculative. And I think there’s booms and busts and we saw that 2018 was crazy. Yeah. And then we saw another spike in in different like Bitcoin and Aetherium. And some of the stable coins in like 2021. Last year was a nightmare. We called it crypto winter, because the underpinning actually doesn’t part of the story I’m telling to is that two of the stable coins that FTX and Alameda research were investing in the traders that were supposed to be pegged to the US dollar, but the traders on pegged them without telling anyone and that started the FTX. So I think you’re gonna continue to see that kind of speculative nature in crypto. And we’ve got this spectre of central bank digital currencies coming up. We don’t know where that’s gonna go. Suppose there’s going to be a vote in the US in July, on whether the Federal Reserve should adopt one or not. But they keep saying that to that story is going to be ongoing, I think the real benefit of the the innovation and the spikes in the highs and lows and, and, you know, the turbulent market that Kryptos has gone through up to this point will ultimately be beneficial because we’ll we’ll end up with Blockchain as a more efficient way to to conduct transactions in the financial markets. So you can make money you can lose money in crypto. I’m not a crypto evangelist. Like I believe that it’s going to be a substitute to the US dollar or the world banking system. But I do believe it efficiencies that are brought to transactions are going to be beneficial to everyone. And that’s kind of how I look at it even from an investment standpoint, I’m like, oh, bitcoins at 15,000, neither should buy some, and then it’s at 27. And then it’s at nine. And it’s like, no, I’m not getting somebody tried to buy some property from a couple years ago, I think it was in 2021. And but they would only do the exchange and in Bitcoin and I’m like, I don’t know if my property is going to be worth less or more if I take your Bitcoin, but I do know what the value of the property is. Yeah. So I think the speculative nature of it is, it’s too early to, to like I prefer gold and silver to Bitcoin or Aetherium. At the moment, maybe there’s a time when, when it makes sense to like use it as a banking tool, but not right now. too speculative for me, and, but I do think that the benefits of blockchain are going to be like email to us a couple years from now, where everyone’s going to be using Blockchain for efficiency, which I think is great. In the boom, bust cycle, that’s what happens, people invest a lot of money quickly into innovative projects, and a lot of people get burnt, a lot of people get rich. And then what we end up with is the core technology that benefits humanity as a whole. I love technology.

Gene Tunny  46:31

Yeah. One thing I wanted to cover too, is this demise of the dollar you talk about? So is that a this is this is a long run concern of yours about where the US dollars going. And I mean, this is related to the point you’re making about.

Addison Wiggin  46:43

Yeah, the thing is, like, I mean, I could slip through the book is that one great chart that shows what has happened to the dollar, I’m not going to be able to find it and make it make sense to your viewers. But since the Federal Reserve was founded in 1913, the original goal of the central bank was to stabilise the currency, and maintain its purchasing power in the economy, for payment, currency users like me, like it’s supposed to be able to, I’m supposed to be able to figure out what my dollar can buy and for how long. But it’s lost more than 97% of its purchasing power since 1913. And it’s, it’s a steady slope downwards, the more money they pour into the system, the like every dollar that you print becomes worth less than the one that was printed last. And the entire banking system of the world is dependent on the dollar as a reserve currency. And at the same time, we’re losing the value of its purchasing power, every debt, and it’s been going on for more than a century. There, their main task was to preserve the purchasing power of the currency that we use in the payment system in the economy. And they have done anything but that it’s, it could be its historic fiat currencies never worked. It accelerated after 1971, with the Bretton Woods system fell apart, the only thing you can do is understand it and then try to move your money around into assets that accumulate value over time. That’s why I like gold and silver, because yeah, there’s a little bit more speculative, but gold when I was younger, and first trying to understand how these things correlate. Gold was trading at like 253 bucks an ounce in 1999, I think and now it’s trading on average, a little bit above 2000. Over that time, he has to be 500. It’s outpaced the s&p 500, which is a broadest measure of big stocks. It’s just been a better investment over time. And that’s that’s just generally what I think is it’s a reverse correlation to the dollar, which is supposed to be managed by the bankers who keep sort of forgetting about risk and inflation and those kinds of things.

Gene Tunny  49:20

I might have to come back to fiat currencies. Yeah, it’s a big, big topic, but another time, because I’ve really picked your brain and it’s been I don’t mind it. We’re very good. That’s great. And yeah, maybe if you if you wanted to sum up your the broadly, the anatomy of a bust. Would you like to summarise it? Or is there anything else you’d like to say before we wrap up?

Addison Wiggin  49:43

No. I mean, I would just say that it’s it was my attempt when, when I was already following the story of FTX and I knew there would be a knock on effect, and I had starting in about December of 2022. So like six months ago, I was like this story is not going to go away. And there’s going to be a knock on effect in other parts of the market that we’re not aware of right now. And that was in December. And then by March, we started having banks fail, which nobody thought was even possible anymore. With the Federal Reserve System and the FDIC backing out small depositors, like nobody thought we would have bank runs ever again. And and then we had the three largest ones within a six week period. So I had already been kind of following the story, and trying to just try and understand how it would even be possible. So that’s what’s in the report is like, here’s what happened, here’s why it happens. Here’s what you need to pay attention to. And here’s how it fits into the historical perspective of booms and busts, the credit cycle is a real thing, even if the government is trying to mitigate it. It does exist and impacts everyone. Because you need a bank, to save your money to borrow to do things that we want it to, to run your business you need, you need a bank that works with you. And if they’re making dumb choices with the assets that they have, it’s better to know that in advance. So that’s what the report is about. And then there’s a couple of recommendations on investment investments you can make. Once you understand what’s going on. We actually recommend bank.

Gene Tunny  51:31

Yeah, yes, it’s for US banks, a lot of to have a lot of have to have this conversation. I don’t know if you look at Australian banks, if I don’t, I

Addison Wiggin  51:40

haven’t looked at Australian banks, except for in a macro sense, where I’m aware that the Federal Reserve decisions that move rates also has a knock on effect in Australia, New Zealand, China, and Japan and Europe. Those are like the big ones. Russia was at two until they decided to destroy their neighbours. Yeah, the

Gene Tunny  52:09

general view here is that our our banks are in a much better position than

Addison Wiggin  52:14

it could be. I haven’t studied them closely enough to know, I think their requirements are different in Australia than in the US too.

Gene Tunny  52:23

Yeah, there. There are definitely differences. So you might have to I’ll have a close look at that myself. But look at us. And it’s been terrific. Yeah, probably more time than you might have expected, delving into it. Because I think what’s great is you you do deep research, and you make a big calls, I suppose what you make you make you really let us know what you think. And I think it’s great. And yeah, it’s it makes me think about what’s going on so much more. So really appreciate all the work you do. And I’ll put links in the show notes to your work. And, and thanks for making that. That report available for listeners. That’s terrific. Yeah.

Addison Wiggin  53:03

It’s information that I like, I would just caution people that I’m learning about it as fast as I can. But I’m also passionate about it. That’s why I do it. This whole project that I have the Wigan sessions is a passion project. I like talking about this stuff. And then it makes me think just like you’re saying, it makes me think. And I want to give away the report just to spread what I’ve learned, because I think it’s important stuff for, especially if you’re trying to manage your own money, it’s really important for you to understand the bigger trends. And, you know, I have a philosophy degree and I studied literature in school and stuff. So I’m interested in the stories of what’s going on. It’s late sound perverse, but I was actually excited when we started having our own banking crisis. It’s happening right in front of my face. I just have to read the news.

Gene Tunny  53:59

Yeah,

Addison Wiggin  54:01

get the report. It’s it’s interesting. And it’s helpful to like, make sense of what’s happening in the news, too.

Gene Tunny  54:07

Yeah, certainly, I guess it could be exciting, stressful. I remember being in Treasury. And here in Australia during the world of financial crisis. We didn’t have it as bad as it was in the States. But it was still quite, quite stressful at a time when we started seeing the drop in government revenues. And yeah, borrow lots more money. And yeah, well, my

Addison Wiggin  54:28

biggest concern, and I put this in the report to but my biggest concern right now is, we were talking about the savings rate during the pandemic. I think the same thing happened in Australia to the savings high because there was a lot of government stimulus, like direct payments to citizens. So the savings rate and then nobody could go anywhere. So the savings rate went really high. It actually peaked above consumer credit for like a, you know, like, a month, and then as the economy started opening up and people started travelling and Like making decisions I, oh, we’re free, we can go to one, the savings rate plummeted. And then the consumer credit rate for all of the things that I’m only talking about the US, but I’m sure it’s mimicked in other Western economies, the consumer credit rate, skyrocket skyrocketed before the Fed started raising rates. So like, all these people are taking on adjustable rate, credit cards and loans and mortgages and things. And then suddenly, the the debt service that they have to pay on those rates went through the roof, it’s tripled. So you had a plummeting savings rate, and at the same time that you have a service to debt ratio going through the roof. It’s not a good scenario. And we haven’t even really seen that impact on, like earnings in the s&p 500, the big retailers and stuff like that. We haven’t seen what that impact is going to look like yet. So that’s not kind of like, I guess, yeah. So other than the banks themselves, because they do it for there’s two points there that I’m keeping an eye on.

Gene Tunny  56:09

Yeah, fair point. We’ll definitely I’ll keep an eye on it, too. I think they’re really good points. Okay, Addison, we’re gonna thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed that. That was terrific. Good luck to you, man. Very good. Thanks, Addison rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if you’re podcasting outlets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

57:10

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French Journalist Guillaume Pitron argues the Digital World is Costing the Earth – EP189

French journalist Guillaume Pitron discusses his book “The Dark Cloud: How the Digital World is Costing the Earth” with guest host Tim Hughes. The book explores the environmental impact of the digital world. Pitron delves into concerns about energy usage, e-waste, and the carbon footprint of the internet. The episode concludes with a debrief of Tim by regular host Gene Tunny on the conversation. 

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You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple PodcastsSpotify, and Stitcher.

About this episode’s guest

Guillaume Pitron is a French journalist, author and filmmaker. He has written two books, published in some fifteen countries, about the natural resources needed for new technology. He has been invited to share his ideas in the French and international media (Le Figaro, BBC World Service, Bloomberg TV, El País, La Repubblica) and at international forums and institutions (Davos, IMF, European Commission, Unesco).

Link to Guillaume’s website:

https://www.en-guillaumepitron.com/

What’s covered in EP189

  • Introduction to this episode. (0:06)
  • What is the dark cloud? (1:27)
  • There is no digital life without rare earths. (3:54)
  • What is the real cost of digital technology? (8:06)
  • What’s the cost to the environment? (13:07)
  • What can we do as individuals to make this better? (17:38)
  • Facebook’s Lapland data center. (22:22)
  • Facebook uses hydro-electricity to run its servers. (24:25)
  • What happens if there’s no water? (28:05)
  • What is the future of the internet going to look like in 10 years? (33:18)
  • Are there any governments around the world that are taking steps forward to regulate the internet? (41:02)
  • What can be done to address this issue? (43:59)
  • What were the main takeaways from the conversation? (48:11)

Links relevant to the conversation

The Dark Cloud book:

https://scribepublications.com.au/books-authors/books/the-dark-cloud-9781922585523

Digital Cleanup Day:

https://www.digitalcleanupday.org/

Jevons paradox:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

It appears the Amiga hard drive Gene’s neighbour in the late 1980s had was a 20MB hard drive:

https://bigbookofamigahardware.com/bboah/product.aspx?id=534

Transcript:
French Journalist Guillaume Pitron argues the Digital World is Costing the Earth – EP189

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:06

Welcome to the Economics Explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Thanks for tuning into the show. This episode features an interview with French journalist Guillaume Pitro, about his new book, The Dark Cloud, how the digital world is costing the Earth. Guillaume visited Brisbane a few weeks ago for the Brisbane Writers Festival. I was in Adelaide when he visited and so Tim Hughes stood in for me and interview VR. I’m very grateful for Tim. First, I’m going to play the conversation between Tim and Guillaume. And then I’m going to catch up with Tim for a debrief on the conversation. I hope you enjoy it.

Tim Hughes  01:27

Okay, so welcome to Economics Explored. I am Tim, you’re standing in for your host, Gene Tunny. And we’re very excited to have with us today Guillaume Pitro. I’ve pronounced that correctly. Very well. Thank you. And Guillaume has a couple of books out that we’ll discuss. But the main one at the moment is called the Dark Cloud. So again, without any further ado, would you mind just letting us give an overview or give us an overview of the Dark Cloud?

Guillaume Pitron  01:56

Well, again, thank you for receiving me here in Brisbane, I am giving Bitcoin, just to introduce myself in a very few words, a French journalist based in Paris, I am an on the field reporter. That’s what I do most of the time, do documentaries and also write books. The Dark Cloud is my second book published by scribe in Australia. It’s basically a worldwide investigation, which took me two years on the trail of my email. Yeah, if I do send an email to you, for example, you’re sitting just less than a minute away from me, where does my email go? What is the real trip of my email between you and I, and actually, the real distance between you and I is that one metre, it’s several 1000s of kilometres, because this data will actually travel through 4g antennas, Wi Fi boxes, but also submarine cables, constellations of satellites, it will be stored in data centres maybe all around the world. So it’s a huge infrastructure that has been built over the last decades by the digital industry, in order to make us live connected. And we are not aware of the physical impacts of the so called virtual life, and also of the environmental costs of being connected. This is what the book is all about.

Tim Hughes  03:18

That some really interesting because I know that this is a subject that has been talked about quite a lot. And one of the areas that I mean, for instance, particularly here in Australia, so we have a lot of rare earths rare metals at our disposal for mining. So some of the areas that you talk about the the environmental cost, the human cost of our digital technology, our use of digital technology. What are the biggest pitfalls or what are the biggest problems? So you talk about, for instance, you know how far that email goes, for instance, what are the costs of us environmentally and a human cost.

Guillaume Pitron  03:54

For the rarest extraction? Yeah, okay. First, there is no digital life without rare earths rares is you find rare earths into your smartphone. And this is the magnet of your phone, which vibrates is made of iron, boron, and a rare earth, which is called neodymium. So you wouldn’t be able to be on silent mode, if you didn’t have rare earths to make your phone vibrates. Basically, this earth is in a way being extracted in Australia, in the Western Australia region. And most of the barriers are being extracted in China, where I’ve been several times I’ve been in rare earths mines and refining areas north of China, south of China for the last years. So I can tell you that extracting these resources is nothing but virtual, everything that is called virtual stems from a scar in the ground which are called a mine. And the refining process of the rare earth is actually very, very dirty. You need to separate the rare earth using water and chemicals. The water which is very polluted is just being rejected directly into, into the nature, it causes cancers, a lot of problems right for the human health and also for the environment. And you have in your phone not only one rare earths, but you have 60 metals in your phone, whether it’s cobalt and lithium and graphite to run the battery, but also a silver, a bit of gold, you have Indium in your phone, on your phone in gym is a mineral, which in the form of powder, makes your phone tactile, so you wouldn’t be able to leave your modern life without having an tactile screen, which is made six to indium, once again, this is being studied in China. So basically, all these metals come from mine, and it comes at an environmental cost.

Tim Hughes  05:45

So is the is the issue of the processing of those minerals. Is that where the impact is largely found mostly? Yep. And so does that vary around the world, I mean, what was the percentage of where these minerals and metals come from?

Guillaume Pitron  06:02

On the initial basis, these metals would come from third world, underdeveloped countries with less strict regulations and the one we would have, if we were in Australia, or in Europe, or in the United States and Canada, we’ve been offshoring the production of this metals for the last decades, we haven’t wanted to have this metals being extracted on our ground, I may make an exception for Australia, because you’re the world’s most producer of lithium. But most of the time, we just have preferred to let poor countries extracting these resources in a way, which is just not consistent with an environmental standards, not sustainable. So that we could just get the metal refined, cleaned. And we could say how we can use this metals for virtual and clean technologies. This is where the paradox is, I wouldn’t be able to precisely give you a figure like in terms of percentage, it depends from a metal to one another. But most of the time, you will find this resources in China, in Burma, in Indonesia, DRC in Africa, and also in South America, for instance.

Tim Hughes  07:12

So DRC, that’s predominately cobalt. Is that right?

Guillaume Pitron  07:15

Yeah, from the Democratic Republic of Congo DRC, you may extract, this is a country, which extracts and trades about 60% of the world’s cobalt production. And you have no smartphone without such a cobalt, which is being used for batteries.

Tim Hughes  07:33

So it’s really the processes in the extraction and the processing of those minerals and metals. That’s the issue.

Guillaume Pitron  07:41

Most of the environmental costs of the digital world comes from the manufacturing of the tablets, the screens, smartphones, sorry, 4 billion units are being used and speak to you right now around the world. Each of them requires such metals. So manufacturing these devices, these electronic devices, is the main cause for digital pollution. This is very first and foremost, a material pollution or resource production pollution.

Tim Hughes  08:14

I think that leads us into one of the other questions which I was going to ask, because part of the this unseen, this invisible side of our digital technology. One thing is the hardware. And then the other one, which he started off with, which is that you know that an email, for instance, appears to be of very little consequence or very little energy needed. However, that’s not the full story. The energy consumption is one of the big issues as well as that right.

Guillaume Pitron  08:40

So once I’ve said that, making a phone stands for the most important part of the digital pollution, that doesn’t mean then that watching video on streaming, or sending an email doesn’t have a cost, right? Basically, I can give you a figure of if you send an email to someone with a big attached piece like one gigabyte, we roughly consider that sending it emits about 20 grammes of co2 into the atmosphere. 20 grammes is as if I was driving 150 metres with my car in for one gigabyte, for such an email. Yeah, so basically, you see, it’s not that much, but it’s not nothing. And if you keep sending emails and emails, and we send every day 363 billion emails, mostly spams, still. And if you add to that, well, you know the costs for the environment or of you know, swiping on a dating site or watching a video, listen to music. I’m not saying here is that we shouldn’t do that. I’m no the Taliban and coming here to tell you don’t listen to music because it has enormous environmental cost. But I’m just saying, even if it’s the short impacts, little impact for each and every tiny action that you have on your phone, if you multiply that by the 4.5 billion users of internet multiplied by the number of digital interaction that they have every day, that starts meaning something,

Tim Hughes  10:12

The invisible part of it is that normally when there’s a resource involved, water, electricity, etc, we have to pay for it, you know, we pay for them as utilities. And, and so it’s clear, if we leave a tap running, we’re going to have to pay for that. So even though it’s, it’s poor management, it’s expensive. And we can see that. So it seems to be there’s a bit of a disconnect with our use of digital technology. And like I say, understanding really the real cost of this because it’s taken up elsewhere. It’s out of sight, all that information. I mean, I was thinking, for instance, I’ve got 20,000 photos on my phone, I don’t need 20,000 photos on my phone, I got 800 videos, I mean, it just accumulates. So that is sitting somewhere that’s taken up,

Guillaume Pitron  10:58

Actually, the photos on on your phone, there are in the cloud. Yeah. So I mean, you believe that these are on your phone, that may be actually, they may be stored on your phone, but they may be on your Apple drive or whatever things and actually you connect yourself from your phone to an account, which is a server, which is somewhere sitting into data centre, wherever it is. So you access the cloud, because you access the pictures, which are once again outside of your phone.

Tim Hughes  11:29

So there’s a there’s a cost to that.

Guillaume Pitron  11:32

The cloud is a data centre, whatever you use your phone, whenever you want to send an email, you’re not sending an email to someone else’s phone, you’re sending an email to someone else’s account, your Gmail account, which is stored somewhere and this person will connect herself or himself from him his phone or her phone to such a server which is stored with other servers in huge warehouses, which are called data centres. And a data centre can be can be as big as dozen soccer size of a dozen of soccer fields. And you find hubs of data centres all around the world. Washington, DC, Sydney, Paris, Frankfurt, London, Beijing, it says a commonly accepted figure that there are around 3 million data centres around the world where all of our data are stored. And these data centres, you know, cannot break down there cannot be any electricity breakdown. Because that means that you can’t access your emails. And you don’t want that right. So if you want to make sure that you get an access to whatever device, whatever internet service for 24 hours a day, you want to make sure that the data centres are running all the time that the data is being replicated in another data centre. So that if the first data centre runs out of electricity, another one is just working instead of the first one. So you duplicate the infrastructure in order to just you know, secure the service continuity of the internet. And this needs electricity to run. And this is where we realise that there’s some points where the cloud touches the ground. And when it touches the ground, it needs to be fed with electricity, which comes either from coal, or from oil, or from a solar power plant or from a nuclear power plant. And this, again, is a cost.

Tim Hughes  13:28

That currently stands at 10%. Is that right? Yeah,

Guillaume Pitron  13:31

10% of the world’s electricity is being used for digital technologies. And that figure is going is increasing at such a fast pace, that there are some, you know, estimations saying that these 10 person may become 20 persons within a decade.

Tim Hughes  13:48

Okay, so it appears to me that like it seems to be, amongst other things, it’s very much an efficiency situate or an efficiency problem. So for instance, like, if emails and pictures and everything was physical, and we could see them, and we were to put them in our backyard, our backyard would become very messy very quickly, we would be compelled to tidy up. This is out of sight. It’s somewhere else we need to as consumers be aware that there’s a cost to this, which is I guess where you’re coming from? Is that right? This is a sure this is a big message. I mean, very much it opened my eyes massively like this. I had no idea. I knew it was something but again, I didn’t really know what understand these terms cloud, etc. A very fanciful or ethereal, whereas in fact yet as you’re pointing out, they’re real.

Guillaume Pitron  14:36

And this is what’s interesting what you’re saying because that maybe that makes me rebound on Education Day, which has been created a couple of years ago by an Estonian lady. She’s an activist, and she created I forget her name right now, but he she created the first World Digital cleanup day. So basically, you’re not going to go into the streets to clean the rubbish on the sidewalk. You’re going to go back to your phone and your computer, and you’re going to follow a course it’s going to take you a couple of hours during that specific day, usually takes place in March depends from countries to countries in my country, France, it takes place in March. And basically, they’re going to tell you how to clean, not your room, or the sidewalk, but to clean your email to clean your cloud. And you’re going to realise that on the rubbish of your cloud, there had been for years old pictures and old videos, yeah, which were still being, you know, kept in the cloud, running thanks to electricity, and you just didn’t know them. So how do you clean that? And how do you actually make a good contribution to the environment by following such a course. But as you said, it’s about cleaning your digital world in a way. The name of the girl is Anilee Overal.

Tim Hughes  15:51

So could you say that again.

Guillaume Pitron  15:54

Anilee Overal, the Estonian militants who created this world digital cleanup day.

Tim Hughes  16:01

That’s really cool. Because it strikes as being an education, which I guess is a big part of your message is like to let people be aware of it, because people will generally do the right thing. If they know,

Guillaume Pitron  16:12

Oh, yeah, we’re turning virtual. Everything is dematerialised, your paycheck in is a cloud. Okay, why not about the cloud, you know, people don’t really understand what that really means. They don’t understand that all these virtual things are really material, very physical. And the first challenge here, as you say, is to educate. And we are just at the beginning of this process, where we just try to understand what this reality is all about. And how do we educate the young generation, the climate generation, they want to do good, they’re on strike on the Fridays, telling me not to take planes and not to eat meat. But actually, they’re spearheading such kind of a pollution. And they’re just not really aware of that. And so the very first challenge is to make people understand that this is becoming big.

Gene Tunny  17:03

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  17:09

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Gene Tunny  17:38

Now back to the show.

Tim Hughes  17:42

Part of this is this efficiency, you know, reducing the waste and stopping the habits that produce more waste, you know, so, for instance, if you’re taking photographs to delete the ones you don’t want and try and minimise the ones that you keep thinking about what you send as an email, trying to minimise all of that. And should we be deleting as we go far more because I know that my email for instances and there is this with spam, and all sorts of other things. It’s a massive, I can’t imagine what percentage if it’s easy to put a number on it, it’s okay, if you don’t have one, but spam obviously contributes a lot to it. There’s so much unnecessary information being stored, it’s clear. So we can do some things as individuals, are there any technical or is tech coming to the party with this to try and make it a little bit more efficient.

Guillaume Pitron  18:32

First, where you could do run the next World Digital cleanup day course, maybe all the picture that we’re talking about, I’m just talking about my own example. Yeah, my phone is an iPhone seven, I don’t have much space into my iPhone seven, which is a good thing. So I don’t change my phone. So that, you know, I’m running out of space at some point, so that I have to take my pictures out of the cloud. And I just put them on a hard drive on an external hard drive. And that doesn’t cost much more to the environment that just storing it in this device that puts less picture on the cloud. What you could do personally, individually to, which is a very important thing is to keep your smartphone and other computers as long as you can. Yeah, I mean, once again, my example iPhone seven, I bought it three years ago, it was a secondhand phone already. And for the last three years, I’ve broken it seven times, four times the screen twice, I had to change the battery. And one time I had to change the main button. But that could be repaired. And actually, I still have the same phone and maybe I can keep it for three more years. And maybe once I don’t want it anymore. I can resell it. If we all do this rather than changing our phones on average, every 18 months, 24 months. Yeah, it’s a huge it’s makes a world of a difference because this main pollution impact, which is once again, the manufacturing of the phone, you can developer to issue keep your phone twice as long. So that’s a very important thing to do. And then you ask me another question, which I forgot

Tim Hughes  19:59

well I was going to, part of that was what the tech companies are doing. Like if they’re on board with this, I mean, because clearly, so for instance, in that regard, they’re looking to sell phones, you know, as a business, they’ll be looking to sell their hardware. So, and I know that, in many areas, the quality of many things has dropped in our printers, for instance, like it’s cheaper to buy a new printer than No, nobody gets one fixed anymore, which is an awful waste of resources. And it’s a really bad way of, you know, going around business for us as custodians of this planet, if you like, you know, so is there anybody in the tech space that’s looking to make this better.

Guillaume Pitron  20:39

It starts being something which companies care about, and they care about it, because first, it costs money to change devices every two years, it costs money to run your data on electricity for service company, the digital devices, and running the digital part of the company may account to 30% of the consumption of electricity of such a company. And it’s also becoming a reputational issue you want to have in your company’s new brains from the new data generation very much worried about the, you know, environmental impact of everything they do. You need to have a message here, and you need to do actions. And I’m very much invited myself by companies, which are just like, we want to be better in a way. And suddenly we realise that there is this new chapter of human pollution, which is digital, how do we cope with this? What do we do? And obviously, they’re starting to understand that. And Google and Facebook and Amazon are very much into these things now, because they don’t want to be seen as being ecologically non friendly companies. You know, when you have Greenpeace, you’re flying a huge balloon over the data centres. And the headquarters of Google in California. And what’s printed on the balloon is How clean is your cloud? That is the good for the reputation. So they want first to green, their electricity mix. They want to say, oh, okay, we need electricity. But this electricity come from solar panels and wind turbines. It doesn’t emit any co2. They do offsetting also, which is kind of a problem, in a way kind of a scam. Because you never know, where’s the trees being planted in? I can tell you many more stories about that plane is claimed, basically, yeah, very much. And also, what Facebook is doing is very interesting. Facebook has been moving some of its data centres for European consumers to Lapland, they moved it close to the Arctic Circle to cool your data, because your servers, the servers where your data is, are actually heating to 60 degrees Celsius, that need to be cooled back to 25 degrees. So either you use an air conditioning system, which is very much energy intensive, or why don’t you move the cloud to places where it’s just naturally cold. So your exercise videos of cats and other emails are literally sleeping under metres of snow in the nose of Lapland, where I’ve been? Alright, I’ve been there. I’ve been to send a data centre not inside I was just outside of it. Yeah. But basically, I was where my Facebook account is. Well, the good news for Facebook is to say, well, not only is it cold, so I use less electricity. I don’t need air conditioning devices. But the thing of the thing is, they say whatever electricity I use, it comes from agile electricity plants.

Tim Hughes  23:21

So this is they’ve got one in Sweden. This is face but would you like to tell us more about about that the hydroelectric plants so I’ve

Guillaume Pitron  23:28

been there. I took a train from Stockholm crossed the Lapland in order to meet my friends, because we’re all there. literally speaking. Yeah, there was a lady in the train. And she came to see me she was just she just wanted to discuss her number. She was a tourist. And she said to me, okay, you want to travel? What are you doing here? And I said to her what I was doing and she looked at me she was just like, this is gonna cycle literally speaking, I went to this data centre couldn’t get in and took my stuff on a picture with all this huge warehouse behind thinking my WhatsApp account is here. My I don’t have an Instagram account. Our Instagram accounts are here. My Facebook accounts are here my 600 and something friends are literally here. This is where all of it is. It’s not for the European, the African Middle East consumers, okay for your designers truly, I believe they are storing US States probably in Oregon, where Facebook is. Okay, the data centre from Facebook is in Oregon. So basically there was a story and then I figured out but so the electricity comes from the Lhuillier river. And this is on that reverse that back in the 60s, some electricity dams. Hydroelectricity dams have been built, not for Facebook because no one at the time knew that Facebook would come to an existence, but Facebook is still using this electricity infrastructure in order to actually run my Facebook account. And I found out by travelling through Lapland, that back in the 60s Is the Swedish state had dried up. So small little river for about 15 to 20 kilometres. And this is the driest. This is the longest river ever dried up by human activity in Western Europe, in order to change the direction of the water and feed this hydroelectricity dam, there’s a guy here, a horrible Mo, I had an amazing countering with him because he’s no is in 60s, but even for the times back in the 60s, where suddenly from one minute to the other, this part of the rivers a smaller river just ceased to exist. It’s just disappeared, and is still crying for this Lost River. And is writing is trying to attract Facebook attention, saying, Have you got a single ID about the impacts of running the electricity that makes today your infrastructure work? So that was amazing story that was in place before? Yes, Facebook is not responsible for the, for the building of such an infrastructure. But Facebook does still today use such an infrastructure. And it keeps this river still dried up today.

Tim Hughes  26:15

I mean, I guess, um, any hydroelectric plant that was in Australia, there’s the Snowy Hydro plant down the snowy mountains. I think it’s 2.0. Now, I’m not too sure. But that has been going since the 50s. I believe like a you know, it’s and now they are big, any damage or anything is gonna have consequences, I guess for downstream. It’s the waterways of the world are getting very much challenged by agriculture and the taking of lands and everything. So it’s sort of getting into into different areas in some ways. But what we’re talking about in many ways is resources and not not wasting those resources. And so the amount of electricity used to fund our digital technology, our habits is significant and growing. So water is also one of those resources. Yeah, that’s getting that’s getting challenged. Sorry, gone.

Guillaume Pitron  27:10

No, no, because we are surfing on internet, we are looking videos and streaming. But let’s take it literally these expressions, these phrases, literally, we literally wouldn’t be able to surf on internet, if there was not water for real.

Tim Hughes  27:28

And now when you mean as a resource,

Guillaume Pitron  27:32

as a resource for making the electricity producing the electricity as part of the process as a resource for refining the metals that are being used in your phones and other servers as cranes as a resource for running the air conditioning systems, the data centres, a big data centre may use as much as 600,000 square metres of water every year. So you need such a water for making internet work. And yeah. Is there risks that at some point, you couldn’t serve anymore on internet? Because there is no water?

Tim Hughes  28:06

Well, this is I guess, with any resource, it has to be managed wisely. And with water. There was something with the NSA in America. So we had a quick chat about this before we started recording. So would you mind? Sure, just telling the listeners,

Guillaume Pitron  28:20

the National Security Agency stores that are from everyone. And back, I think it two sons 13 as they started to run their biggest data centre, and they made it run in the city of Bluffdale, which is in the state of Utah. As you will understand this data centre needs water in order to run the cooling systems. The thing is, we are in Utah, which is the secondary states of the United States, some local journalists started to ask the question to the NSA. But what is your consumption of water? The NSA would first reply, I don’t want to tell you because if I tell you how much we are consumed, that will tell you information about how much data store, okay. Eventually, they found out and the NSA replied, and it was clear that the NSA was not consuming that much water, taking water out of the Jordan River, which is just running through Bluffdale city, Byrd suddenly some NGO militants, and we’ve had the moment where it was Snowden hadn’t made the revelations about all this surveillance politican stuff. And they start to think but if the NSA doesn’t have water, there is no operations anymore. What if we strike an action on courts in order to forbid the state of Utah to make water available to the NSA? What if we could afford or to the NSA? Maybe this is the actual tool of the NSA. And if there is no water, we just stopped as a server and stuff, because this is the resource that is being needed for surveillance, which is an amazing story, right?

Tim Hughes  29:58

So with that, so Same with the water would be diverted towards civilian use or towards the NSA is that there

Guillaume Pitron  30:05

was no such a conflict of usages. Okay. So once again, there wasn’t so much question of consumption, so the water would have probably remained in the Jordan River and whatever kind of things. But once again, if the water cannot be fueling the NSA the same way as oil can be fueling a motor of a car. You don’t run this system anymore. And there was a thing a bit crazy ID that this NGO militants were having. They were being supported by also by a local senator or local parliamentary member to stop the civilians literally by by just stopping the availability of such an important resource for such a panopticon.

Tim Hughes  30:48

Right. Okay. So the implications are far reaching, basically. Yeah. Okay. I want to circle back to the question of efficiency. So cryptocurrency? I guess that’s included in our digital technology very much. I know that the the energy consumption for cryptocurrency to perform is really high. I’ve heard statistics that it takes the same amount of energy as Portugal, as a whole country does for all the transactions to happen, especially for the Bitcoin. Yeah, because last year, I think it was last year Aetherium managed to develop a new way of doing their transactions where it’s massively undercut, I think it was 99.9% reduction. That’s right. So that kind of tech, technical, technological improvement, if you like that efficiency, is there anything on the horizon in other areas where we might be able to clean up our act by just reducing the amount of power that we need to run our digital technology,

Guillaume Pitron  31:47

the data centre industry must no respect some specifications, which are being called the P e, u e, the power unit efficiency. So basically, it is a ratio that tells you how much power you need, in order to run a server to run a certain amount of data. And this PUE can be very high, maybe close to two. And then you can go as low as as low as 1.2, which shows that your data centre is kind of more eco friendly. And the more we are going with, you know, investments in researchers, the more the PU E is going down, and the more it’s a good news and the more the industry can say, Look, we’re doing efforts in order to store our data and to run the internet in a more efficient way in a more ecologically friendly way. And once again, this is important that is good. This industry tries for reputational reasons for money reasons to do better, I think is we can take that for granted because we consume more and more and more data. So at the same in the same by the same token at the same time. We keep discovering new ways of using the internet. Yeah, this is new cryptocurrencies. This is maybe tomorrow creating new avatar in the metaverse this in requesting, asking questions to the chat boat chat GPT for Yeah, that’s

Tim Hughes  33:12

the new thing. AI is a massive new one. Definitely arising introduction to this.

Guillaume Pitron  33:18

Yes. And, you know, 10 years ago, we would not have thought that we would be speaking in 2023 about you know, Metaverse and Chad GPT. For what is internet going to look like in 10 years? Nobody knows. But it’s going to be crazy. We are just in the, you know, very early ages of the internet. We’re just turning. We’re just discovering this new technology. Where will it take us in the future? I don’t know, what I’m absolutely sure about is that is going to make us produce more and more and more data. And this is what a techno profits from the Silicon Valley, an American techno profits, cause the Internet of Everything is advocating for the Internet, everything, the internet, the internet of everything is basically we’re going to connect everything, my glass will be connected, your body will be connected with sensors, animals will be connected trees will be connected, we’re going to connect everything because everything that is connected, produces information, produces data speaks to someone else, or some or something else, which is connected. And that is information, which is money and which is power. So we are in a world where on one hand, technologies are getting much better, and much more efficient, very good news. But on the other hand, there is a rebound effects. Oh, because I don’t have any impact on the internet because for each data I produce, it has less and less impact. Why don’t I just you know, produce and consume more data. And the other dynamics here is the fact that in the next 15 years, humankind with will probably produce and consume 50 times more data than what it does today. So there is a race here between the tech nology, which is getting much more efficient, and the fact that our usages of such technologies are getting exponential. So this is where the big story comes. figures tell us that in the next 10 years, the 10%, electricity consumption of the digital world might become 20. And the four persons of co2 emissions, which is more than planes might become eight persons. Yeah, I’m not sure. But if these figures are true, that means that the race is being lost by the technology, and that we consume more new data than the technology is able to offset them in a way,

Tim Hughes  35:35

how much difference can we expect to make through changing our own habits? Like is that just not going to be enough like, because I can’t imagine the way that you say that the way that data is coming to us, it’s coming more and more from different directions. It’s unmanageable, in many ways, on a personal level, to sort of having a habit all in order. What’s the best we can do here? I know, we know, we sort of touched on this week we go back to it. And do we really have to depend, for instance, on the technology changing to suit us, you know, like, rather than us changing our habits to try and manage that amount of data.

Guillaume Pitron  36:12

You’re asking me a difficult question. Yeah. And I wish I would be able to answer to you in a clearer way. But when I look at the way we are using Internet today, when you want to look at the ways young generation is spending, its time, you know, sticked to talk in other kinds of devices. I don’t think there is anything here that relates to the very basic wisdom we should be having while using such devices. And I don’t think any of these new technologies are being offered to us in the future. Whether it’s Metaverse new cryptocurrency is the niche, next version of chat boat would make us use the internet in a more sober way. So I’m a bit worried in a way that we behave like child’s in front of this technology were so much impressed by what they can do. And we don’t want to change our habits. Now, there are limitations, which are starting to appear into the debates, limits to the way we will be using internet in the future. The first one can be ecology, as I speak with you right now, okay, so whenever I am on such devices, I have an impact on the planet. So that may, in the future, play a role in changing your habits, first and foremost, keeping your phone longer. Second, is democracy. We have seen states, including in Europe, trying to, you know, frame the use of certain social networks, because it spreads hatred, because it’s pray to fix news. And we want to protect a beautiful value, which is democracy. So you want to make sure these social networks don’t go too far in the face of such a value, which is democracy. And there’s certainly mutations that I see coming, right now is health, whether it’s your physical health, spending your days on your couch, watching a video on your phone, or whether it’s mental health, and we can’t count today, it’s the number of scientific studies, which are being produced, telling you how that much affects your attention capacities, such tic toc and other kind of things. I would like to believe that ecology, health and democracy may be some hurdles to just keep using these devices, without any real thinking about the impact that they may have. That makes a

Tim Hughes  38:43

lot of sense, because it can feel very insignificant as to what your own contribution might be to a solution such as this problem. But the reality is that we shouldn’t underestimate market pressure. So you know, companies, individuals, demanding or asking of the tech of the companies who are providing the services in this hardware, that they’re not happy with it, they’re not okay with it, and they want it to change. So that kind of pressure coming from the bottom up, is quite likely the thing that will most likely change what happens,

Guillaume Pitron  39:15

I very much agree with you. And we live in such a contradictory age in a way because on one hand, what I’m telling you, in my view, make sense is debatable. But I think we know we can understand this message. And on the other end, everyone understands that the country which in the future will be the most powerful in the cyberspace, cyberspace will, you know hold many strings of the future of geopolitics. So if you want to keep running in this race that we’re all watching right now between the United States and China, you need to be up to date with these technologies. 5g has come to France. And there’s not been such a big debate over the impacts of the environment of 5g antennas. The French that said, but we need to have our own 5g devices. Why not because they know what 5g will be used for. We have no ideas or roughly an ID. But because we don’t want to have Chinese 5g networks installed in France, with potential spying capabilities. So it’s all about geopolitics, accelerating towards the 5g is just because you want to remain independent, sovereign, technologically, independent from the countries, and you will still want to play an important role in the future of geopolitics. So, in a sense, what you were saying just a minute ago is so interesting, because we are codes in this contradictions involved in makes sense, but geopolitics. And independence from other powers makes a lot of sense, too. And I would like to be Macomb my president, or I would like to be Albin ease, and be able to see clearer in the future. How do I make a choice between these two contradictory messages?

Tim Hughes  41:02

That some as funny because that leads me into volley one is going to be one of my, my final questions. So I appreciate the time you’ve given us today. Is there any other any governments that are doing anything in this space, are making positive steps? In my view, what usually happens is what we mentioned before where it’s like, it’s the pressure from the voters, the people at the market demand, you know, that is often the most powerful things. And I think governments around the world are struggling to keep up with this, the speed of this technology. So things are being implemented before legislation can catch up with it. But are there any governments around the world who were making steps forward to try and take responsibility for the direction that this is all going in

Guillaume Pitron  41:45

from an environmental standpoint? So

Tim Hughes  41:47

all all of it really like? Health? Because I think the health perspective you mentioned is really, really valid, because the health implications from this are really quite strong, mentally and physically.

Guillaume Pitron  41:57

I have in mind the example of China, where, you know, there has been some regulations enacted by the state saying that when your Chinese teenager I think I’m not sure when you listen, under 1414, one four years old, you don’t have the right to use tick tock more than like 40 minutes a day.

Tim Hughes  42:17

And is that a regulated it within the household? Or is it on the devices? That’s I wouldn’t be able to tell you because there’s a parent, I know how challenging it is, but it’s not that they can’t be done. But I know, there’s challenges

Guillaume Pitron  42:30

the fact that the state says so in a know how the SLO is being respected. Yeah, tells you something about how the Chinese government can care in a way about the mental health of the young saying, all right, it’s fine to a certain extent with after that, you might get into trouble from mental viewpoint. In the United States, an average a young in the United States is spending seven hours and 22 minutes on internet every day, outside of school. So I would probably mention the Chinese state in terms of environment, the French are doing something right now they have passed a law, which is the first law in the world. I don’t say that they could infringe on here. But basically tackling on a general manner, globally is a question of the impact of internet on the environment. And so there have been many things being decided, whether it is that, you know, the tech companies must inform their consumers about the number of data that have consumed and what it means in terms of co2 emissions. There are some specifications to the data centres, and all this kind of thing. So that is, I think, a good thing that’s just starting, mostly North European countries, Germany are very much in advance when it comes to regulating such kind of ways of using internets, including on the environmental angle. But for the rest of the world, this is just an unknown subject. Yes.

Tim Hughes  43:59

And then that’s good to know that those things are happening in those countries, which is, which is a good start. And I guess it’s sort of points towards the fact that whatever needs to be done, clearly hasn’t been done on any level at the moment, just yet. But whatever can be done. Well, one of the things I guess about this as building awareness, which is what you’re doing is educating, making people understand what the issue is, and what the implications are around the world. The problems with the environment and the human costs that come with this. So that then we can take responsibility for this individually and as communities and countries etc.

Guillaume Pitron  44:36

Yeah, and this is why I quote Stephen Hawking in the beginning of the book, when he says the future is a race between the growing power of technology and the wisdom with which we’re going to be able to we’re going to be able to use it. And the such wisdom can only start with understanding with education. It’s a paradox that the knowledge economy and the knowledge technologies don’t make you knowledgeable about the way the work kind of products is going to take years before we understand all these technologies, which are being up in the air, or donor their feet buried into the ground in the form of wire networks, or laying in the depth of the oceans, in the form of submarine cable optics is going to take years before we really, you know, put some names figures and descriptions over this Leviathan, which we just don’t have an idea of because we haven’t sensed it with our senses. It’s huge battle coming in here, in order to to understand that enormous ecological challenge coming for the decades to come.

Tim Hughes  45:44

Well, that sounds like a good place to wrap this up. Do you have any further closing comments on that gear?

Guillaume Pitron  45:51

Pretty much. I don’t want to be looking like someone was coming to make lessons of normal. Because I use internet every day. I need internet’s to write my books. And I need you to podcast what I’m talking to you about. So I’m going to tell you, you know, you should feel guilty whenever you open your email account, or whatever kind of things. That’s not the position I can hold. And I really would like to make you understand that I’m adopting every day myself, I’m questioning myself all the time. But I keep always in mind this ID, this which is new to us, which is that whenever we will use internet in the future, we’re going to have to make something which we have never done, which is a cost benefit analysis.

Tim Hughes  46:38

Actually, that’s a really good question that I will put to Jim, because that’s his area of expertise. And so the book that you have is the dark cloud. Yep. And that’s now available, we’ll link to everything in the show notes, with some of the things we’ve talked about. And the Estonian activist will make sure she gets a link there. And you also have the rare metals war. So you have you’ve got my first book published was truly a couple of years ago. And I just want to thank you for the work that you do. Because I think it’s so important, you know, and it’s so easy to not be aware of this, I for one was somebody who had a feeling you get a general feeling that things aren’t always as they appear, and that there’s a cost. But thank you for bringing to light, the cost of our digital technology. And also, I would encourage all of us to have these conversations more and to know that it is something that will grow. And that we have a responsibility as we’re here now on this planet to ourselves and future generations to try and sort out this issue sooner rather than later. And if that then comes to how we might vote and what we might do with our personal practices with digital technology. We have the power. We have the power, we have the power. So Graham Photron. Very, merci beaucoup. Merci. Merci. And and thanks for everyone for listening. We’ll have everything in the show notes. And we’ll look forward to seeing you next time. Pleasure. Thank you.

Gene Tunny  48:11

Tim, he is good to be chatting with you again,

Tim Hughes  48:14

playing good to be here, Mike.

Gene Tunny  48:15

Thanks for filling into me for the conversation with Guillaume that was, that was great. I really appreciated it. You had a good conversation with Gam about his book, The Dark Cloud.

Tim Hughes  48:27

Yes, it was fascinating. I really enjoyed it really enjoyed it. Thanks for giving me that chance. And

Gene Tunny  48:32

overall, I mean, how do you think? Or how do you think it went? What were the main takeaways for you?

Tim Hughes  48:39

I was fascinated by what he had to say. And I really appreciate the fact that he was able to bring attention to this issue, because it’s clearly a big issue. And it’s growing. And I thought it was a really good thing to talk about. And to continue talking about because no doubt this is an ongoing problem that we need to work with.

Gene Tunny  48:57

Yeah, it’s important to raise this as an issue. It’s still unclear to me exactly how big a deal this is and how much we should worry about it. I guess what he’s highlighting is that the digital world is not necessarily providing the environmental benefit that people 30 years ago or 20 years ago may have thought it was we moved away from having paper, you know, paper based offices and, and also having more services delivered online rather than us having to travel somewhere or, you know, travel or conferences or whatever. So he’s highlighting that this increasing digital footprint that’s having an environmental impact. I think that’s an important point. It’s still unclear to me exactly. How big a deal this isn’t how much we should be concerned about. I mean, clearly we should be concerned about environmental damage, environmental impacts, and we have various regulations that are that are at attempting to resolve those. There is an issue with climate change, of course. And we know that internationally many countries aren’t really agreeing to on or they’re not they don’t have the framework or the policies in place to really do much about that. I mean, there’s a lot of talk. There’s not a lot of action. Yeah. So that’s, that’s possibly an area where you could argue that better policies are needed. You know, in other cases, there is, well, at least in Australia, there’s very stringent environmental protections. I guess the issue is, well, what if they do you know, that’s what Guillaume was talking about mining in the impact of mining in emerging economies, wasn’t he? So there there are issues. And so perhaps that’s something where it’s worth focusing attention on. And there needs to be there could be some international pressure to improve conditions in those those countries. Did he mention Congo? I’m trying to remember now. Yeah,

Tim Hughes  51:01

he mentioned DRC. And cobalt, most of the cobalt seems to come from there. And without a doubt, it’s the processes with getting these rare earths out of the ground, that are the issues, environmentally, and the human cost of that. So there was really, I mean, I thought it was very clear that there was some big impacts from our digital technology, our digital habits, that we should be aware of. And that can be improved on that was the big, I thought that came over really strongly. So just to repeat some of the figures, he said, 10% of the power that we use currently is running our digital technology. And that’s understandable, there’s going to be an amount that goes into it, we’re highly linked to the internet, really dependent on the all of this new technology. So it’s not surprising that there’s a cost there. However, the rate that that is expected to increase up to 20%. Within the next decade, it currently accounts for 4% of the carbon emissions, and that’s looking to double as well. So this is the tip of the iceberg in the way I guess, there were two main areas that I could see where this inefficiency was a problem. One was in the use of electricity with storing data and unnecessary data, which is, and it was something we were talking about a little bit before we did this wrap up. It’s unknown, I guess as to how much of this data that’s being stored currently in 3 million data centres around the world that Guillaume mentioned, how much of that data is necessary or not, which is, you know, can update for conjecture. But I think personally, we could all see from our own habits, there’s a lot of data that we have, that has been saved, that’s completely not necessary. So there’s an efficiency problem there for sure. That can be improved upon. And whether, you know, for any of us to go through our phones, or whatever storage, we have to retrospectively go through our photos videos is a daunting task that is unlikely to happen to be fair. So if technology can come to the help AI, with some kind of solution with this, which I know they have, they can detect duplicates, and this kind of thing. So that that kind of technology is already there, technology could hopefully come up with something quite clever to try and either compress the amount of data that we have, which is one possibility, I guess, or to somehow diminish the amount of storage that’s needed, because it’s clearly unnecessary for a lot of personal use, we don’t need anywhere near as much as we currently use. You mentioned before that it’s cheap data is cheap, which I think is great for the consumer. But this is, I think, allowing us to have bad habits of just being wasteful with the amount of things that we hold on to just in case or just can’t be bothered to delete because it’s too clunky or too time consuming currently,

Gene Tunny  53:50

well, I think you made a good point there. It’s too. It’s too time consuming. So therefore, if you’re doing this efficiency calculation, you should take into account the fact that if you were to go and clean it up, you’d have to spend all this time doing so. And yeah, I did mention when we were chatting, storage is cheap. And as an economist, I mean, as long as people are facing the irrelevant, or the proper prices at prices, which fully incorporate all the costs, then what’s the problem? I mean, if we want to have a lot of data stored online, there’s no real problem with that. I guess the issue does come if we’re not properly if businesses and are not internalising all the costs that they’re imposing on society if there are these environmental impacts that aren’t properly costed and then priced into the product so that your look that could be an issue, right? I’m not I’m not denying that. But in terms of the you know, the photos I mean, I don’t know how big a bigger deal that is and how big a part of the problem it is. And this 3 million data centres. factoid, that’s not the huge Google or Facebook data centres, there are 3 million of those around the world, he must be talking about various computers, various servers that are associated with different websites around the world. That must be what he’s talking about.

Tim Hughes  55:17

Yeah, I mean, we didn’t go into any detail of the sizes, but clearly, they vary in size, as some of the ones we did talk about with the bigger ones Facebook. Yeah, it’s an Oregon and was it Lapland I forget now, which country was part of that plan? Yeah. And Finland, one of the one of the colder regions, which makes sense, as far as energy expenditure goes, however, I thought it was really clear, like if that were those figures, as they stand 10% is a lot of power. And so there’s a real environmental impact from generating that 10% of electricity. So I think it was really clear that there were impacts big impacts already, which were only expected to grow. So I think whatever inspections can be done, they do need to be considered important, and also to be done as soon as possible. And but I do think that the big steps most likely will be technology steps, you know, somehow of reducing our capacity or not our capacity, but I need to source so much data. So if it’s a compression issue, I don’t know that

Gene Tunny  56:17

well, there is compression already. I think we’re probably solve the compression problem. They’ve got very good algorithms for compressing data. I don’t know how much more efficient we can get on there.

Tim Hughes  56:28

I mean, I’m coming from a non technical background. So I mean, you know, how, for instance, the initial computers were massive, and they became smaller and smaller to the point we had, you know, a small computer in our pocket that can take cameras has all this capability. That is amazing. Yeah. I don’t know how that happens. I just trust that, you know, it has happened. So I just go with it. And I just wonder, like, you know, hopefully, there might be some future leaps and bounds that we can do in the forms of storing data. You know, if that might be something if we might go through the same process of efficiency and finding better ways to to manage this before it gets more of a problem.

Gene Tunny  57:03

Yeah, in terms of storage technology. Yeah. Yeah, I’m not sure. I mean, I’m not an expert on that. Either. You were talking about the, the size, I mean, the compression comes into it, where you reduce something that is 10 megabytes down to two megabytes or whatever. That’s the compression. So it has a smaller storage requirements in terms of storage technology becoming better and, and cheaper. I don’t know. I’m presuming it will. I mean, I remember, back in 1989, my neighbour, Simon had a hard drive for his Amiga computer. And I think it’s stored a couple of megabytes. That was like a big deal for saw.

Tim Hughes  57:48

And that’s the thing, like, you know, neither of us are equipped to sort of see, I mean, clearly, there were constraints. And there are, you know, people are trying to no doubt make this as efficient as possible. Yeah. You know, so if, in, you know, in the meantime, what we can do, though, which are made some really good points is that, you know, we have a couple of options, you know, to store our photos or videos on external hard drives, which, like you said, rightly, before we started recording again, but that would come at a cost, to create that harddrive, etc. But the point being that, once it’s on that it’s not consuming electricity, to keep it stored, it’s not stored in the cloud, etc. So that’s one of the areas I thought was worth mentioning. And again, the digital cleanup day. So he mentioned, I think we worked out it was Anneli overall, as the Estonian activist, and, again, with whatever is at our disposal, now, we can use that technology or that little bit of time, or like, it’s okay. You know, we do the same with our gay marriage, or whatever storage we have at home, I think it’s okay to put a bit of time into into making our digital storage habits more efficient and less, less cluttered. So there’s good information on what does it digital digital cleanup day.org. So if anybody wants to check that out, there’s some good information there. So the other part of the efficiency process was back to what you were talking about with the rare earths and DRC, etc. And that was a big one big takeaway I felt was to hold on to your phone. So that’s in the hardware element of our digital habits, so phones, laptops, tablets, etc. The production of those is where all of this comes into it. And so if we can hold on to our phone, get it fixed. I think GM said he had an iPhone seven, and getting it fixed, meant that he wasn’t then getting the latest one, they’re all perfectly good. I don’t have to have quantum leaps of technology. With these things. You can do everything with, you know, a model that’s a few years old. And so there are definitely things we can do to to help with these current issues and to try and slowed down that dependence on requiring more energy to store and the issues that might come from extraction of these rare earths from different parts of the world.

Gene Tunny  1:00:09

Yeah, I’ll have to look up and put in the show notes. What that the size of that Amiga hard drive was it probably, I think it was a bit more than a couple of media or

Tim Hughes  1:00:19

anything I just said, Jane, are you just thinking about that? You’ve been thinking about that for a while. Sorry. That’s totally fine. I’m used to it. I’ve got three kids. But yeah, so quantum leaps in that regard in a relatively short period of Yeah, exactly.

Gene Tunny  1:00:41

Exactly.

Tim Hughes  1:00:45

That’s another big point, I thought was really interesting was the value that you put on democracy, you know, that we have the opportunity in democratic societies to make change. I thought that was a good point.

Gene Tunny  1:01:01

Yeah. Yeah, I think well, certainly is. Yeah, we hope that the changes are sensible. So I guess the challenge here is to come up with sensible policy recommendations and not just react to the fact Oh, there’s a lot of data, we’re using a lot of energy for the digital world? Well, of course, we are because we’re role online now. So what’s the actual problem? I think we’ve got to make sure the policies are addressed at where the so called market failures are addressed at tackling those who were not properly pricing the costs of, of the environmental impacts. So that’s what I would say.

Tim Hughes  1:01:44

I think one of the main points was this is out of sight. So we’re not we’re not aware of this cost, in power, or in environmental and inhuman impacts. It was just bringing it to the fore to bring it into view, I guess, you know, with with rubbish that we do household waste, etc, we can see that it gets picked up. And it’s it still goes into areas that we may not be so aware of. But we’re aware of that daily. Yeah, contribution to. And I guess this is like there’s a digital landfill that we need to be take some responsibility for. And I guess that was what I felt from from.

Gene Tunny  1:02:24

Yeah, look, I think he makes some good points. So I think it was a good conversation. And from doing the some reading on this, in preparation for our chat, I discovered that there isn’t really a lot of information or a lot of analysis of this. And there’s a great article I found on data camp.com that I’ll link to that goes through the impacts of digital technology in it right. And in that they write despite recent progress to improve corporate transparency, there’s still significant data gaps and blind spots and the evidence of environmentally relevant digitalization impacts, which I think is true. So it’s something that further research would be useful on.

Tim Hughes  1:03:04

Yeah, yeah. It’s a big subject, and no doubt one that’s going to stay with us for as far as we can predict at the moment. So yeah, it was it was good to get that perspective on it.

Gene Tunny  1:03:15

Very good. And one thing I liked about his book is he, he does talk about the economics of it. He talks about the Jevons paradox. I don’t know if you came across that I needed and talk to him about about that. But the idea is that as we become more efficient in something, rather than using less of it, we can actually end up using more of it because it’s, it’s cheaper, so electricity as we become more efficient, and well, if we become more efficient with electricity, so the use of electricity, more efficient lighting and refrigerators and washing machines, then those savings we just ended up, you know, getting more appliances in we that gives us some room to to use more electricity. And it can be that we ended up using more sounds like

Tim Hughes  1:04:03

Parkinson’s Law where yeah, we fill up the available space to do whatever we can. So if we have more money, we spend it if we have more, fill it.

Gene Tunny  1:04:12

Yeah, so I’ll put a link in the show notes on the Jevons paradox, which was originally discovered by a British economist Stanley Jevons. Thing was William Stanley Jevons in the 19th century with regard to coal. So I’ll put some I’ll put a link in about that. And that might be a good topic to cover in a future episode.

Tim Hughes  1:04:34

And there was a cost benefit analysis that Guillaume mentioned.

Gene Tunny  1:04:38

Well, I think he was saying that you really need to do a cost benefit analysis on any measures to deal with these issues. Was that what he was saying? Or you’d want to do a cost benefit analysis of our use of digital technology? Now my feeling is, it’s going to come out in favour of the use of digital technology,

Tim Hughes  1:04:54

for sure. And he was very clear with that, that he’s not against it, like he uses it. And so it’s not a question of, for or against, it’s a question of better use of and better practice in how we, how our hardware is made, and, and also being mindful of how much power is being currently used. And to see that, you know, wherever we can be more efficient in that whole process that we do what we can. And that was where the democracy sort of comes in, you know, we can, as voters, you know, this is something through discussions through this kind of discussion. And the kind of, you know, I guess this is the awareness that Guianas bringing to us. And it’s just making sure that we can have these conversations and talk about it so that, yeah, at some point, it can be better, or we can be less wasteful.

Gene Tunny  1:05:48

Absolutely. And I think he does the point that we’re not going to solve all these environmental challenges. If we just move to renewables and EVs, there’s still going to be environmental impacts that we need to think about. I think that’s a that’s a good point. So anything else, Tim, before we wrap

Tim Hughes  1:06:03

up? No, I really enjoyed it, Gene. And thanks again for giving me the guest spot. I really enjoyed it.

Gene Tunny  1:06:09

Oh, of course. Thank you, Tim. And one thing I should note, as you please check out the show notes, I might put in the the capacity of that Amiga hard drive for 1989. I may have underestimated underestimated that but it was very low relative to what they are now is quite incredible. Was it eight or 20 megabytes? I’m struggling to remember, but I’ll do some research on that. Very good. The 80s wonderful time. Okay, Tim? Yes. Thanks for your time. today. It’s been a pleasure. Right. Oh, thanks for listening to this episode of Economics Explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact@economicsexplored.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

1:07:29

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Credits

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Podcast episode

Crypto arbitrage searcher Dave Belvedere on crypto and dApps such as Wizards & Dragons – EP178

Dave Belvedere is a software engineer who searches for opportunities to make the crypto market more efficient and to make money at the same time – e.g. by exploiting arbitrage opportunities. Dave gives show host Gene Tunny and his colleague Tim Hughes an overview of cryptocurrency and also talks about NFTs and decentralized applications (dApps), such as Wizards & Dragons.

Please get in touch with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple PodcastsSpotify, and Stitcher.

What’s covered in EP178

  • What is Dave’s role in the crypto market? [1:10]
  • What is a chain and how does it work? [3:39]
  • How long does it take to make a transaction? [9:26]
  • What does a crypto exchange (e.g. FTX) do? [15:30]
  • What do we know about miners? [20:20]
  • What’s the future of crypto currencies? [25:44]
  • What is Ethereum and how does it work? [45:57]
  • What are the pros and cons of crypto? [52:07]
  • What are dApps? [57:01]
  • What are the use cases? What would motivate you to have crypto? [1:06:33]

Links relevant to the conversation

Bitcoin creator:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto

Wizards & Dragons game:

https://dappradar.com/ethereum/games/wizards-dragons-game

Transcript: Crypto arbitrage searcher Dave Belvedere on crypto and dApps such as Wizards & Dragons – EP178

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:06

Welcome to the Economics Explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Dave Belvedere, welcome to the show. Thanks for having me. Excellent Dave, joined by Tim Hughes. Of course, Tim, good to have you here too.

Tim Hughes  00:43

Hey, Gene. Good to be here mate.

Gene Tunny  00:44

And Tim, thanks for introducing me to Dave, who is involved in crypto and crypto is something that Tim and I have chatted about before, and we’re conscious that we need to know more about it, we’re at a certain level of understanding of it, and it’d be good to increase that understanding. So to kick off with Dave, could you talk about your involvement with crypto, please?

Dave Belvedere  01:10

Yeah, so I’m what I do is I’m classified as a searcher within cryptocurrency. So a searcher is somebody who looks for opportunities to make the market more efficient. So one of the classic examples is arbitrage. So when somebody adds a cryptocurrency to one side of a pool, so those get created by automatic market makers, which we can talk about, so yeah, yeah. So if they add, say, you know, 20,000 ETH to one side of the pool, and the other side of the pool holds USD t, then there’s an offset of the balance of how much USD T costs versus what the general market says.

Tim Hughes  01:48

So David, USD t is,

Dave Belvedere  01:50

it’s so sorry, yeah, the USDt is tether. It’s backed by sort of the organisation that runs it to maintain a level pay going against the US dollar. So it’s one to one to the US dollar. Okay. So there’s a couple of coins like that, that are referred to as stable coins. So this is within Ethereum, which is USD T and USDC. So us coin but it’s not the US market coin. So it’s not connected to the US government at all. Okay, so ETH is Ethereum and if there’s a theory, okay, and then you’ll have BTC, which is Bitcoin? Yeah.

Gene Tunny  02:29

And is there a simple way to explain the difference between Ethereum and Bitcoin?

Dave Belvedere  02:34

Yeah. In essence, the cryptocurrencies. So it’s cryptocurrency really is just a digital asset that’s backed by a cryptographic hashing algorithm. Digital Asset is something just like a bank account, or something like that. So yeah, we see it every day. Yeah, technically, all Australian dollars, when you start to pay with your credit card, that’s really just a digital asset. In this case, it’s a digital asset that is then secured by cryptography. So when you go visit the bank, you’ll usually see HTTPS, that s stands for secure, and that’s backed by cryptography. So same sort of mechanism. And in this regard, when we talk about Bitcoin and Ethereum , they’re actually two independent cryptocurrency chains. So they’re not really connected together. And what that means is that they operate a little differently. So Bitcoin was the first one, they came in around 2009. So a lot of people would have heard it, because, yeah, that the market value quite, quite hugely, I think, a couple of years ago, it was up to like 80,000, US or 80,000, Australian. And it’s come back down now. But yeah, head has gained a lot of popularity. So when we get into a chain, there’s a couple of things when we talk about what a chain is. So we would have all heard of the classical blockchain. And that’s what sort of secures Bitcoin and Aetherium. So blockchain is really an ledger, we probably always, always heard it. So transactions just get added, and you can’t go back and modify the transactions. And one way, well, the guarantee for that is the consensus mechanism that gets used. So let’s just say I make a couple of transactions on Bitcoin. So I’m sending some bitcoin to somebody else, that transaction gets added to a block. So there can be many transactions or none, no block. Yeah. And then that block then goes through all gets consensus with the rest of the network. So one of the differences are that, I guess one of the big differences with blockchains is that for most of the blockchains, that distributed systems, so nodes all around the world make up the actual blockchain. So there’s no one entity that can control the blockchain itself.

Tim Hughes  04:53

So this is the decentralised term when it’s used. This is what the what they mean by that.

Dave Belvedere  04:57

Yeah, yeah. So that’s sort of like you can shut down, say everything in the US, but the chain will still operate because you know, it’s in Europe, it’s in Asia, it’s in Australia. So you can’t really shut the chain down.

Tim Hughes  05:09

And is that just on that subject, is that one of the reasons that so much energy is needed for a transaction? Is that where that consumption comes in?

Dave Belvedere  05:17

So to a degree, there’s a couple of things that will maintain the security of the blockchain. So a couple of blockchain. So in this case, Bitcoin itself is actually vulnerable to a degree to the 51% attack. So when we talk about distributed systems, it’s different control most of those systems, you can do whatever you want in the system, which is classified as the 51%. Yeah, so I haven’t heard that term before. So if I control 51% of all miners, and let’s just say in Bitcoin, then I can make any transaction valid, because I control the majority. Yeah, the consensus mechanism that gets used as always a majority, if the most of the nodes agree that this transaction is valid, it’s valid, and there’s no going back once that transaction, that transaction has been committed, there’s there is a couple of nuances to that. So you can challenge a block if it hasn’t been finalised. But for the most part, we you can always just assume, as soon as that transaction gets committed into a block, and it’s on the blockchain, it’s there forever.

Gene Tunny  06:19

Yeah, but because it’s so decentralised. And there are so many 1000s I don’t know how many 10s of 1000s of people around the world who are they’re mining or whatever they’re doing. They’re overseas, so they’ve got a stake in it, then the probability of having that 51% attack is extremely low, isn’t it? 

Dave Belvedere  06:40

Yeah, you need sort of a lot of a lot of materials and a lot of money, honestly, to get to that point. Yeah. So when something small, obviously, it’s easy. But yeah, given its past sort of popularity, and its nature, yeah, it gets gets very hard. And yeah, so the Yeah, it’s, it’s extremely hard to try and try and get that in a bunch of, there’s a collection, so you might not be able to create the block. So when we, when we talk about these miners, yeah, suddenly, to I guess sort of to lead up to is why miner are unnecessary in Bitcoin, now and previously, in Ethereum, is that they are looking for the next block. So they’re trying to get consensus on the block. Yeah. So when somebody commits a transaction that doesn’t get added to the blockchain, automatically, it goes to the miners. And what they’re doing is running the consensus algorithm. So the algorithm is just really cryptographic hash. And what it includes is the hash of the header of the previous block, plus all the transactions plus a random number. And what they’re trying to do is run that hash it such that they get a viable block, the block is valid in accordance to the consensus algorithm. That is where all the power is spent all that time, because you’re running a cryptographic algorithm, which is usually quite computationally heavy. Yeah, in the best of times, and they’re trying to beat everyone to the block. Because if you create a block, you get a reward for it. So you might get one Bitcoin, or something like that. So it is viable to try and create as many blocks as you can to get those rewards.

Tim Hughes  08:16

That’s the reward for being a miner. Is that right?

Dave Belvedere  08:20

That’s the reward for creating a block. You spend all your time mining, not create a block and get nothing. Yeah, so one of the things that they’ve done, because obviously, that sort of starts to lean towards people with more money, more resources can deploy more things, is they’ve created these mining pools, such that you can contribute to the pool, and it might make up say, 25% on the network. And then if the pool itself creates a block, you get a you get a little piece of that based off of you know, how much you contribute to the pool.

Tim Hughes  08:57

Quick, quick question with that. So with the people who don’t manage to mine the block, is that part of the excessive amount of energy needed for a transaction because it’s basically wasted energy, they resource is a bit like an Olympic bid or how it used to be. So all that money is spent was for nothing, because it went to wherever

Dave Belvedere  09:18

Somebody else. Yeah, so they’re basically you know, running these things as quick as they can and they might get beaten by nanoseconds.

Tim Hughes  09:26

Yeah. And how long would a transaction normally take roughly?

Dave Belvedere  09:29

So it depends on the on the chain being used, I think at the moment with Bitcoin because they’ve like they’ve mined so much it takes you know, 10s of minutes to actually create a new block in Ethereum. They switched from proof of work the consensus of proof of work, which is what Bitcoin still operates on, to proof of stake which is less computationally heavy consensus mechanism and it also you can argue it distributed through the miners a lot cleaner to, and they’re fairly quick. So compared to Bitcoin, so they generate a new block, I think, every second pretty much and the transactions that get included are just transactions there.

Tim Hughes  10:14

Because yeah, this sorry, Jamie, because this is something like last year or isn’t it when Ethereum. So this is the change that they did way? I think it’s only 10%? Or is it like a 90%? reduction on 99.9%. Wow, okay, of their power, which is enormous. I mean, that’s because that was the we’ve talked about it before with outrageous amount of energy spent. And to hear it, they’re like is completely wasted? Any delegates not necessary for that transaction. So it’s wasted energy. Yeah. So Ethereum have made this quantum leap, basically, to make it far more efficient. Yeah, pretty

Dave Belvedere  10:46

well, efficient in terms of memory. Sorry, in terms of power. Yeah, like the contestants. So proof of stake, the way it works is like a scheduler just goes, you’re going to create the next block. And so only one person is effectively going, here are the valid transactions and pushes the block out, you still got validators that will be like, That’s a good job or challenge to do it. So I guess sort of a little difference between proof of work and proof of stake as the consensus mechanisms. Proof of Work is just really run, like find that cryptographic hash match. Proof of stake is you put up X amount of capital, or for this, in this case, it’s 32 ETH, which is about 80,000 Australian, and you say I will behave correctly and properly. And if I generate a block, you get sort of the rewards for that. Now, in order to avoid bad actors, or just somebody coming in with a massive amount of ETH. And being like, I’m just going to do this, they have challenge periods. So if somebody like, let’s just say, misbehaves as the node and puts in a bad transaction, somebody, anyone on the network, so like, you could be just a little guy on the network and these big, big mining groups around you can challenge the block. It’ll force everyone to go through and actually, like, compute this at a sort of hashing level. And if you’re right, and they did misbehave, they lose all the capital that they put up. So they get slashed, 32. And so the node gets bounced, and then that 32 ETH comes back to the network. Because you challenged it, I think you get like, 90% of that, and a bunch of it gets burnt offs. Yeah. So it’s sort of the that’s the mechanism to make sure everyone is behaving correctly.

Gene Tunny  12:39

Don’t can’t ask a basic question. Yep. Say you bought a couch off, Tim. And you wanted to pay Tim in cryptocurrency? I mean, maybe bitcoins the example to use, since that’s what most people are familiar with? How would it work? I mean, would Tim have to have a wallet, a crypto wallet?

Dave Belvedere  13:01

Yeah, so crypto will only really send to what we call wallets are really just public keys and private keys. So it’s the public key infrastructure that sort of backs a lot of lot of internet, mobile, a lot of sort of infrastructure around the world at the moment. And you have a public key and a private key. Okay, so most people might have heard this, like, somebody’s private key got lifted, and crypto got drained. If you’ve got a private key, you can decrypt anything that gets encrypted with the public key. So in this case, I’m sending it to Tim’s public key, and then only Tim will be able to, to get that from his public key if he’s got the private key.

Gene Tunny  13:43

So who sets up the public key? Tim need to do that?

Dave Belvedere  13:46

And Tim needs to do it. So in order to generate a wallet, you’ll get both the public key and its private key.

Gene Tunny  13:51

Okay. And who are the players that do that for you that is that a an exchange? A crypto exchange?

Dave Belvedere  13:56

Yeah, there’s, there’s a, like, you can do it through an exchange. But then typically, like, there are exchanges out there, okay. They might like to hold the private key or, you know, be able to recover private keys and things like that. Yeah, you can do it through a bunch of, sort of specialised applications. So we call them just wallets. So the most common one in Ethereum is Metamask. So it can you can just plug it in, it’s just a Firefox Chrome app, and you go create new wallet, and it’ll generate that those keys for you.

Tim Hughes  14:29

Is that user-friendly Dave or is that something that you’d need someone like yourself to help set up?

Dave Belvedere  14:36

No, it’s it’s it’s pretty easy. User friendly now. So yeah, like a couple years ago would have been like, what’s going on what’s up, but now, you know, they’ve made many changes has been very user friendly, like to go through you instal it. It’ll be like, how you like recovering your existing wallet. And if that’s the case, you got to provide the private key, or the seed phrases to generate the key Um, ball. It’s just like, okay, cool. Finding a new wallet, you click a button creates the wallet for you. Yeah, it stores the like, you won’t see the private key, but I’ll give you the seed phrases that are used to recover that private key and record these because if you don’t have the private key, this is the only way to get this back.

Gene Tunny  15:20

Okay, so who would do the transaction? Is that through the exchange? If you understand money to Tim, or is the exchange doing is FTX? I mean, what did a company like? FTX do so

Dave Belvedere  15:33

FTX was primarily changing, like currency for cryptocurrency. So they, they act as the middleman. Okay, so you know, I’d give them Australian dollars from the bank, okay, and then I could buy on their market at their rates, x amount of crypto that they’re holding in their wallet, okay. And then from that I can either like so as a part of that, typically, you’ll find an account with the exchange that will have like an embedded wallet associated with it, or whatever their infrastructure needs. And then I can transfer that to say, my wallet, and then I can transfer some to Tim or I can use that exchange to transfer it to Tim directly. Okay, so exchanges are primarily there for transferring currency. So, so transferring dollars to currency, or transferring between cryptocurrency across chains, or transferring between cryptocurrency on the same chain. So when we talk about an Ethereum is not just ETH it has a bunch of coins on the same chain. And yeah, you can use an exchange to say transfer one Eth to USD C or USD t. So the two stable coins you’re talking about before. Or I can, you do that what they call on chain through DEX’s. Okay, decentralized exchanges. Okay. So they create pools or what we call automatic market makers. Yeah, so they usually have a pool, which is, this is a 50/50 pool. So it has Ethereum and USDC. So the pool itself, ideally, at any point is trying to maintain half of its quantities Ethereum and the other half is USDC. And now what sort of I look for on chain is when somebody then dumps 20k Ethereum into that pool, means there’s an imbalance between the side. So yeah, who would automatically want USDC or getting rid of ETH. So it’ll make eath very cheap to buy, so wants to get rid of it to maintain the balance, yeah, or give me a really good price to put USDC into the pool, because it wants more of that to try and maintain that 50/50. And that sort of is the classical arbitrage from that I can buy low at some other pool or on the decks itself, and then put it into this. And what makes that possible is decentralise exchanges. Don’t look at you know, a fee that says the market price for ETH is x to what exchanges use. So exchanges will typically have, you know, the current market price of ETH is whatever $1,600 And that’s based off of, you know, what’s happening now what’s happening on other exchanges, like Binance and things like that, and they sort of get a get a market price for that. Whereas decentralised applications, their market price is literally what the pool says. So yeah, you can sort of get really good deals. And yeah, when you sort of try and make that market efficient on the decentralised side it Yeah, can can open up a bunch of opportunities.

Tim Hughes  18:55

Can I just ask Dave? So with winning that transaction in your, you know, for that particular situation, is that all about speed? Or is so what are the factors in being able to get that transaction?

Dave Belvedere  19:06

Yeah, so there’s, there’s a couple of things that will impact that transaction. So on Ethereum, it’s not necessarily about speed, you certainly have to be there when they’re trying to create the block. So let’s just say the timing window for creating a block is 100 milliseconds. So as long as my transaction to do that is in that block time creation window, I have a chance to potentially win that transaction. And what it comes down to on Ethereum is you can tip the miner to be like, you want to put my transaction first. So let’s just say I’m going to make three ETH. From this transaction, I can tip the miner 2.5 of that ETH so I get half of that if I can give the miner 2.5 If they put my transaction first, so which means the Miner is getting more money to make sure that my block Isn’t there first my transactions in there first, and then they can put the rest of the transactions. And so that’s sort of making up what we, you know, sort of what gets identified as MeV. So mine extractable value. So they’re looking for the most profitable transactions to put inside their block in order to make the most money. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  20:20

So what do we know about these miners? There are professional miners aren’t there? And are there amateur miners? I mean, is it guys in the basement? Or is it? I know there are some dedicated companies aren’t there that are doing the mining and they’re all around the world? Do we have any here in Brisbane, I’m just fascinated with these miners are.

Dave Belvedere  20:40

Ya know, it’s really it’s, it’s anyone that has the computer with the resources and is running the algorithm, you can be a miner at that point. Yeah, mine is there to operate the chain it does. Under proof of work, it is better to be with other miners, like around other miners, because you want to broadcast the block that you find to the network as quickly as possible, because two people might come up with the same solution or like different transaction orders. But both of the blocks that they produce pass the consensus algorithm, it’s whoever can saturate the network or saturate 51% of the network they’re blocked in is the next block. So you might do all this work, find a block, create the block and then still miss out.

Tim Hughes  21:29

 Right, which was the original problem, anyway. So yeah, just is it? Well, as far as energy consumption goes. So with the changes that Ethereum made, it’s the same process, but just quicker, and with fewer people vying for it. Is that right?

Dave Belvedere  21:41

Just just one person vying for it. So it’s like, with proof of stake, it’s like, it’s your time to create the block. And you have to answer within a certain timeframe. If you don’t, there is a little bit of a penalty, like you lose, start to lose some of your stake, and they just go to the next person.

Tim Hughes  21:56

And how do you be in that little group or chain? Or?

Dave Belvedere  22:00

Oh, it’s just really running the node software, So the actual node software is executing, you just connect to it. And and you’re pretty much in it.

Gene Tunny  22:09

Yeah. What do you know about the profitability of the mining? Because is it something where there’s such low barriers to entry, there’s just, you know, lots of people have come into it seeking the profit. And then that gets, you know, that those opportunities get dissipated? Or? I mean, I’m guessing there are some players in the mining game who have, they’ve just got such great computer capability, or there, they’ve got a better algorithm, that they could get a lot of the winnings, but what do you know about the profitability of mining? And the, I guess, the market structure, I suppose you call it?

Dave Belvedere  22:48

Yeah. So um, under proof of work, mining profitability, I think sort of, when we talk about Bitcoin is starting to fade away very quickly, because you need to spend all this energy. And I’m, I’m pretty, pretty sure that they’ve dropped the block rewards, quite recently. So what you get for actually creating a block that’s come down, so you’re getting less and less, sort of Bitcoin for creating that block now, right? So the profitability is starting to go away. In Ethereum, it’s still kind of there, it’s sort of like a random random shoot, if you get a really good block, where let’s just say something skewed pool a lot. And you’ve got these searches, trying to like get money out of the pool to make it market efficient, you might end up with a block that might pay you say, 50 EtH, in those tips. So that’s random. But the problem is, is that there’s a lot of like, nodes around the world for a theorem, because now it’s just super, super, super basic to set up and those sort of requirements are starting to fall away a little bit. That yeah, it is hard to like, get to that block, like it is pretty much a random chance. Okay.

Tim Hughes  24:04

But, Dave, you mentioned a couple of terms, actually, you have Bitcoin operate and how Ethereum operate, which is essentially then the difference that made it possible for Ethereum to use so much less energy. What was that again?

Dave Belvedere  24:18

They’re their consensus mechanism. So proof of work versus proof of stake.

Tim Hughes  24:22

Yeah, right. Okay. So Bitcoin have proof of work, Bitcoin and proof of work? Yep. Is it possible for them to do the same thing as a theorem and move to proof of steak?

Dave Belvedere  24:33

It is they would have to change how the chain would not have the chain, well, how the miners would operate. So the actual software that the miners run. One of the things with Bitcoin is there are very big miner groups now. So there’s a lot of sort of power in these groups because they don’t want the status quo to change. Because they they’re making they’re making money. So proof of work, works for those miners. Yeah. And so you have to convince like majority of the miners or like 90% of the miners that this is the way forward. Otherwise, what will happen is you’ll get a hard fork. So you’ll potentially see if you’ve looked at sort of some of the crypto you’ll see like, Bitcoin classic and a theorem classic. Yeah, these are hard forks of the chains where miners have just disagreed. Okay, and so, you know, a group of miners went one way. And other group of miners went the other way. People yeah. Always soiling it.

Tim Hughes  25:34

Humans always do. Okay, so, um, because with that, I mean, it looked like such a big change for Ethereum that Bitcoin might have its days numbered, like, Is that a fair assumption?

Dave Belvedere  25:44

I think so. Like, I think bitcoins done really good stuff and trying to like break into the businesses and operate as like, Hey, here’s a digital asset coin and sort of challenge the status quo that was previously that it’s days to look, you know, pretty, pretty bleak. In terms of future it is just a coin, and it’s just a digital asset. And you’ve got other sort of crypto currencies like Ethereum that operate as a coin, but then also have these decentralised exchanges, as you know, on chain games that you can play and like, do stuff with, they’ve building out an entire ecosystem over top of them. So they’ve now got what what gets referred to as layer two chains. So chains that operate on Ethereum. So you can bridge assets, I can take what I’ve got on a theorem and hold it up to this layer two chain, and that layer two chain is secured by Ethereum. So typically, you’d like to take arbitrage, for example, it’s a really popular layer to chain on a theorem, what they do is they’ve got their own. They’re a centralised chain. So the way that they validate and sequence blocks is controlled by off chain labs. But what they do is when they’ve got a bunch of blocks, they roll them all up. So they have a rollup mechanism. And they send that data back down as a transaction on layer one. And so when it gets committed into layer one, I can essentially rebuild the layer two chain from just layer one. And that’s where I sort of think Ethereum is going to head towards the future, is that a Ethereum , what we call layer, layer one will end up being more of a security mechanism, rather than sort of what exists today with DEXIS and coins, that will still be around, but I think the majority of us will start to go towards layer two and potentially even layer three, because they can upscale the amount of transactions they can handle. So that’s, that’s the other one. That’s pretty key, if this was going to take over sort of like, a digital asset is how many transactions you can compute per second. So you know, take Visa, for example, I think can do like, what 4000 transactions a second. And so yeah, that sort of puts a minimum requirement on how many transactions you can compute per second, in order to like, not really notice, it’s like you don’t notice, like when you tap a credit card to go pay a delay of like, hang on, gotta mine that block.

Gene Tunny  28:22

This is where we need quantum computers. And are they, are they something that will actually happen?

Dave Belvedere  28:28

Potentially, yeah, it depends on like, what gets used. So hashing is always a weird one for quantum computers, because hashes are typically not vulnerable to, I guess, you know, Shor’s algorithm, which says, basically, sort of at a high level, anything that’s secured by, say, just a cryptographic algorithm, you can break with Shor’s algorithm. Yes, yeah. it all up. So cryptography today depends on the fact that when I make like input equal output, if I have to break that output, it’s a brute force attack. So I have to just iterate through all possible inputs to try and find what input gave me that output. It depends on that that is pretty much impossible. You need a lot of resources. And it’s going to take a lot of time. Not to say it’s not impossible, but it’s so far out of just, it’s 100 years to like, try and work out what this input equals that output, that it’s just not worth it. So that’s what fundamentally secures all cryptography today in those sort of algorithms. What the concern with quantum is, is that you’ll be able to do that a lot quicker. Yeah, but with hashes, not so much. It’s still just run through how the hashes work.

Gene Tunny  29:56

Right? Okay. Yeah, fair enough. I had another had another question about this proof of work versus proof of stake. One. Criticism I heard at the time when this merge occurred was at the merge, like the merge. Yeah. Was that Well, the great thing about Bitcoin and I think I had Yeah, I had a guest on the show, who was a Bitcoin enthusiast, and he was also a writer of thrillers. Lars Emmerich. I think it was, yeah. It was interesting. Guest fun. Yeah. All right, is excellent. And former fighter pilot and oh, yeah, writes thrillers. And he’s, we talked about crypto among other things. And he’s a big Bitcoin enthusiast because he sees the risk of he’s concerned about the US dollar hyperinflation, etc. So we had a good conversation on that. But he was saying the great thing about Bitcoin is decentralised, the proof of work means that there’s benefits from having proof of work, and it is, I guess what I’m asking is Ethereum  still crypto, is it still, I mean, there’s moving to proof of stake move away from the benefits of having to do that proof of work.

Dave Belvedere  31:23

I mean, oh, yeah. Yeah. No, not Not really. So okay. It is still crypto. It’s still cryptographically you know, okay, locked in and secured, as is still decentralised, still decentralised.Yeah, so absolutely. So it’s even some people can argue it’s even becoming more decentralised than say, Bitcoin. So Bitcoin itself is moving towards centralization, because you have the big miner groups that start to control more and more of the chain, sort of moving towards a centralised figure. And so that’s that 51% attack that we talked about earlier, with moving to a proof of stake in order to control or sort of start to centralise the chain, I have to control 51% of all Ethereum. So every single ETH that’s ever been issued, I need to hold 51% of that, which is, you know, starting to become trillions and trillions of dollars. Yeah, so it is less viable for me to actually try to attack at the network. And yeah, it’s sort of proof of stake kind of starts to push more of a distributed type of feel to it doesn’t stop big groups coming together and like, obviously, trying to pull the chain towards centralization. But I’d probably argue that proof of stake makes that harder than say, proof of work.

Gene Tunny  32:51

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  33:26

Now back to the show.

Tim Hughes  33:31

Can I say what would happen with layer one, layer two, if someone was to get that 51% ownership? Do they then become the layer one? They’ve got their? They’ve got the conch as it were, you know, so is that where the layer one status is? Is like yeah, because the majority.

Dave Belvedere  33:49

so yeah, pretty much like yeah, if somebody can control, you know, the, the layer one and you’ve got layer two, and layer three is built on top of it. They call the shots, they call it. Yeah, they effectively have the control of the network.

Tim Hughes  34:02

Because it’s an interesting part of how this seems to be unfolding is that the decentralised nature seems to be one of the big attractions and I’m sure it still is. But as far as confidence in the currency, it seems to be the downfall of, so it’s it looks quite possible that so for instance, Reserve Bank of Australia or Bank of England may want to bring up their own cryptocurrency which would then be centralised that would be layer two as you were saying so if they did it with Ethereum it would for instance, you know, hypothetically will come on as a layer two and be centralised. Yeah. What are the is that the direction we’re heading in? Is that seem to be most likely?

Dave Belvedere  34:47

Yeah. Maybe. I think because they would want to control the chain. So one of the reasons I guess that a lot of people are still You know, fairly excited is that cryptocurrencies do bring some anonymity to the game. You’re just identified by a wallet, not by name, address or anything like that. Yeah, right, sort of what the banks need. So you don’t get KYC in exchanges, KYC so know your customer.

Gene Tunny  35:19

Yeah, that’s the stop money laundering. Dodgy transactions, technically, they’re supposed to know their customers. And this is where some banks have got into trouble. Yeah, he is that they actually didn’t know their customers and all of the money laundering through the Westpac ATMs. I don’t know if you remember that.

Dave Belvedere  35:39

It was it Westpac? There was a little I remember stuff with Commbank, they’ll doing.

Gene Tunny  35:43

maybe it was Commbank, I actually have to check that in the show notes. So I don’t get sued. But I thought it was Westpac is one of those four. Yeah. So

Tim Hughes  35:58

Good to know, because I’ve got to deliver a CAPTCHA apparently. So. Good thing to know.

Dave Belvedere  36:03

Yeah. So So currently, sort of government regulations, sort of say like, Okay, if you are transferring currencies and things like that, you have to KYC. So you have the customer have to provide details. Yeah, and one of the great things about digital coins is, you know, you just identified by a wallet on the network. So, you know, is that really you? I don’t know. So, you know, this is where, yeah, recently I had to go through tax in a year, which is, which was always fun. And yeah, you got to provide like, his wallet addresses, these are all the wallet addresses I touch. These are all the transactions I made to, obviously, ATO, so they can make sure that you are getting taxed correctly.

Tim Hughes  36:48

That’s a really good point. I hadn’t thought of that. So how does this work with a tax return? Like, you know, with your transaction, what you own what you dont own.

Dave Belvedere  36:56

Every transaction is considered an investment or sell, buy or sell order, basically. So cryptocurrency still is considered, well, it’s a high risk investment, right? It is extremely volatile. And yeah, and there are many dodgy things that do happen on chains. And, you know, one of the classic examples is you can’t even trust exchanges, because FTX, for example, they were messing around with customer funds and things like that.

Tim Hughes  37:27

So yeah, sorry I was always going to ask at some point, now is obviously that time, I guess, what happened?

Dave Belvedere  37:33

So sort of the story that we got for the collapse of FTX customers are obviously putting in the money FTX I believe that the time offered, you know, futures options, traditional sort of trading markets that people could play around with. However, they also sort of had a behind the doors deal with one of their sub companies, I think is Ella Mira or something, something similar to that, where they will lend them a bunch of money at them was backed by customer money from an FTX, FTX perspective. And they played around with it and lost, I think it was they lost billions and billions of dollars. And so when customers started to lose confidence in FTX, I can’t remember what the particular event was. And they tried to withdraw their money. They couldn’t, because FTX didn’t have that money anymore. So and that’s sort of what led to the collapse. And what Yeah, ultimately forced the US government to start to step in. And that’s where I think we’ll start to see more changes. I think crypto is here to stay. But in its current form, probably not. I think governments will start to get involved. And yeah, you’ll start to see sort of a traditional securities market approach, I think, come over the top of it. So yeah, whether you’re more KYC or, you know, more rules around what you can and can’t do in particular countries, which makes it quite hard because there is no one thing controlling crypto, and it’s all decentralised. So it’s like, well, if we see you’re coming from the US, you gotta use this. If we see you’re coming from Australia, you got to do this, which, yes, is it’s hard to make that work well.

Tim Hughes  39:27

So that was a failure of the exchange, not the currency.

Dave Belvedere  39:30

Yeah, that’s, that’s purely a failure of the exchange. So the people running the exchange are doing Yeah. Yeah, questionable. Questionable things.

Gene Tunny  39:38

 Yeah, because they should have just been exchanging or holding that money on behalf of their customers. And they were going to use that to purchase cryptocurrencies were they?

Dave Belvedere  39:51

Yeah, so effectively, like, yeah, they would purchase cryptocurrencies and then they would sell it on so they, you know, if starting up they would prop we’ll be running at a bit of a deficit or like have a raw, somebody’s given them a bunch of money too, and have that initial crypto. Yeah. And then yeah, as people come in, and they, like, give money for that crypto, obviously at a particular market margin. Yeah, they start to be able to add more crypto and sort of become profitable in that regard.

Gene Tunny  40:22

Yeah. But they went in, did they go and lend that money that they should have held in trust, or they shouldn’t they were looking out for customers to that. That other company was run by his ex girlfriend. By Sam Bankman-Fried’s ex-girlfriend. Yeah. Yeah, it was a daughter of an economist, economist. MIT economist, I think, I think he’s a professor at MIT or one of those schools. Really good school. Yeah, that was a debacle. The other thing I hear about is the rug pull. Rebuild, goes on about rug pulls. And when coffees Zilla, you probably follow Him or you say he’s really sceptical of crypto. Have you seen coffee Zilla? I will flick you some videos.

Tim Hughes  41:07

I love the fact that rug pulled got a conversation. I’ve never heard of this. About this.

Dave Belvedere  41:13

It’s a funny term. So obviously there with with anything new and like, Give somebody a little bit of anonymity, they just go wild. You know, there are at the moment, a lot of yeah, a lot of good actors that people are trying to, you know, accomplish and create new things. But there are also a lot of bad actors. So classical pump and dump schemes are not uncommon. And yeah, one of the other ones is what gets what got its own name, which is a row pool. So let’s just say, you know, there’s, there’s a, there’s a token that I’m releasing, people buying that token, so they’re sending me money, and I’ve given them the token back, and then on the owner, cool, I can just like swipe all that money out of the account, and then that token is now worthless. That’s, that’s effectively a rug pull. So the people who created that, that have control of that sort of asset, because the assets on an Ethereum are controlled by contracts. So if you’ve got the private key to the contract, you effectively control the contract. And you can just take all the money that’s in that contract, and then the token then becomes worthless.

Tim Hughes  42:20

Actually, on that note, so this, this brings up the question I was going to ask, who started these? Obviously, they’re, you know, whoever is behind bitcoin or Ethereum? Are they known?

Dave Belvedere  42:33

So, Bitcoin, no. There is a famous paper that is written but no one knows the true identity. Within Ethereum, it’s Vitalik. So he traded a theorem and then it’s now run by the Ethereum foundation. So the people who sort of operate and try to improve the chain and things like that are known as a foundation whereas Bitcoin it’s, it’s murky, who started.

Tim Hughes  43:00

It’s very James Bond, the whole thing of like, you know, having something like Bitcoin with, you know, who’s behind it is fascinating that it’s anonymous at that level with potentially a lot of power.

Gene Tunny  43:11

Well, it was this person with a pseudonym was it’s a Satoshi

Dave Belvedere  43:16

Satoshi. It started with Okay, yeah, but yeah, Satoshi, something

Gene Tunny  43:19

like that. I’ll put links in the show notes. And what they did I think they published a white paper. So they publish the code or the rules for Bitcoin and then people read it and thought, actually, yeah, this would, could work. This is a great idea. Let’s go ahead with it. So it’s obviously a computer scientist of some kind, potentially. Yeah, I think is there an Australian who claims that he invented it? I think, as well?

Dave Belvedere  43:44

Yeah. There are claims that the Australian is Satoshi. Ah, right. Yeah, so sort of he released the white paper with the chain already there. So one of the things that you have to do to I guess, you know, start a chain, is you got to create the Genesis block. So the first block that then things build on top of, and typically, if you’re going to create the Genesis block, well, you might as well just create a good fundamental base. So I think, I think Satoshi has like, a ridiculous amount of bitcoin, because you’re effectively controlled. The base asset right at the start, and then you sort of like, give yourself as much as you need as you’re building these blocks, like you might release the chain to the public, say, and it’s got like, 200-300 blocks. So you’ve got all the rewards for those blocks are doing no work, no competition, but now you’re going to release the chain. And so I think, from memory, reading papers, like everyone knows which coins because obviously the coins effectively get numbered based on the block that they were minted in.

Tim Hughes  44:52

And on that note, Dave, there’s a certain number of Bitcoin and then that’s it. Is that right? And was that determined at the very beginning?

Dave Belvedere  45:00

yeah, so that would have been determined by the actual algorithm that that got generated for Bitcoin.

Tim Hughes  45:05

How many other?

Gene Tunny  45:07

21 million, isn’t it? Yeah, I’ll put it in the show notes anyway.

Tim Hughes  45:14

So that’s part of the strength of it, though, that it’s a finite number.

Dave Belvedere  45:18

 It is a finite number. Yeah. So it’s like it is the strength. So once everything’s been mined, you know, that’s it, then it just becomes transactions passing between to and fro.

Tim Hughes  45:28

You need a level of scarcity for it to have a value.

Dave Belvedere  45:31

Scarcity will drive the wealth of the actual element up, or potentially not, depending on which way it flows. But yeah, that’s, that’s the sort of appeal for it is that it’s running out, so if you’re going to grab it.

Tim Hughes  45:45

And Is that comparable to how many Ethereum there are in the in circulation? No. I knew as I was asking the question, this is not right.

Dave Belvedere  45:57

So what gets classified as Ethereum? Has, it does have a max value, but it’s quite big.

Tim Hughes  46:05

So sorry, I mean, this is coming from a very base level of understanding. But I’m sort of fascinated by this. So how does that work? Then with Ethereum? How many? Like what do you call? So Bitcoin is a Bitcoin? Because Bitcoin isn’t what Ethereum? Worked with? ETH. So yes, okay. Yes. So the number of ETH isn’t determined, it’s not finite.

Dave Belvedere  46:28

It, there is a there is a finite, but they can always add more. So it’s, yeah, it’s backed by a contract. And you can always change that contract. Sort of as an example. Like, right at the start, it was ETH. So ETH, is the classical. Everyone knows, sort of what gets defaulted to, technically, it’s not ETH anymore. It’s actually wrapped ETH. So three or four years ago, I think, the foundation or or one of the one of the partners that works with Ethereum, closely, they published the standard that every token should follow, because a token is really just a contract on chain, and you’re calling methods on that contract to say meant, you know, how many does this address have? If everyone is, you know, everyone just goes, I’m going to create a new contract, that API of like, what do I call to, like mean to what do I call the burn could change from token to token. So what got published was what was being classified as ERC. 20 So it’s a standard that every token follows. So an ERC 20 token follows that standard. ETH at the time, didn’t meet that standard. And so they created a contract that did create that didn’t meet the standard called wrapped ETH and you can transfer ETH and wrapped ETH at a one to one. So I can have like eight ETH and automatically make it a wrap ETH, okay? It’s just like taking that asset and making it different. But it’s still what you know, it’s still what we call ETH on chain.

Tim Hughes  48:13

Yeah, okay. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  48:14

Here’s another basic question that just occurred to me. So a Bitcoin. I’m not sure what its value at the moment, but is it around 20,000 USD?

Dave Belvedere  48:23

26,00US. 

Gene Tunny  48:27

Okay, yep. Yep, can I have a fraction of a Bitcoin? Can I or, but I How does that work? I mean, all because I thought if it’s in a wallet, does it have to be one Bitcoin? Or can it be gonna be a fraction?

Dave Belvedere  48:40

It can be a fraction of Bitcoin. So typically, with the tokens they’ll have? Like, we call it decimals on chain, but it’s really just precise. Okay, gotcha. So like, I think Bitcoin has a precision of six, I think six or eight. I’d have to double check that. So which means I can have point 000001 of a bitcoin. Right. Okay. Yeah, as long as it’s within that, that precision element, it doesn’t matter. You can you can still operate and work on it. Gotcha. Yeah, so as an example, ETH has a precision of 18. Right. So one eath, actually on chain is one times 10 to the power of 18. That’s what it looks like on chain.

Tim Hughes  49:23

Okay. And what’s a ETH worth nowadays? I think it’s around 1600 USD at the moment. Okay. So, as far as affordability goes in a single as against a Bitcoin.

Dave Belvedere  49:37

An ETH is more affordable.

Gene Tunny  49:40

Okay, can I ask you about smart contracts? So as an economist and speaking with other economists, and just reading about crypto and, and all of that, I mean, there seems to be increasingly there’s a view that will crypto might that There’s a lot of scepticism about crypto itself, but they’re saying, well, the blockchain is great, and smart contracts are great. So, can you explain what a smart contract is? And it’s linked to Ethereum? Is that correct? Yeah. How does that work?

Dave Belvedere  50:13

Yeah. So, um, a smart contract is really just code that’s on the chain. And so one of the one of the sort of, I think, very fundamental things that makes a theorem quite good is that I can store more than just the coin on the chain, I can create code, I can put it on chain, and then that’s the code forever. And so that code can no longer be changed, which does lead to some interesting problems, like, Oh, crap, that’s a bug. How do I actually, you know, patch and fix that bug? And you know, that’s, that’s kind of, we’ve seen consequences of that already. Yeah, somebody’s found a security flaw and just like, stolen millions and millions of dollars from contracts, or from DEXIS in particular. So they’re sort of the common hacks that are in theorem. So whenever you see somebody’s hacked, say, a bridge, or a Dex, that’s typically somebody’s found a flaw in the code and been able to exploit that code. Yeah, so a contract is written in solidity for the most part. So solidity is the most common language used for writing smart contracts. And it’s just, it’s just really code at that point. It’s just structured code. So similar to obviously different but like, similar to as if I was to read a C programme. So well, you know, a Ross programme or anything like that. It’s just common, it’s just code. So that’s why if you’ve ever heard coders law on some of the sort of the defences of hacks, that’s, that’s where that’s coming from, is that this is written as code. And the code allowed me to take millions of dollars, therefore, am I really responsible for it? My view is yes.

Tim Hughes  52:07

That is not a strong defence.

Gene Tunny  52:12

It’s like, if you get a million dollars deposited into your bank account, you can’t go out and buy a Ferrari.

Tim Hughes  52:20

The doors open, so I went in and took what I could carry. With that, as well, because I was zooming out a little bit as well. Dave? Yeah, you know, financial markets. There are so many issues like that may influence like a human emotions, like greed, panic, fear, these things happen all the time, you know, cyclical, or whatever it may be. And banks get robbed, you know, like, you know, cash was stolen, whatever. This doesn’t seem to be answering too many sort of problems, you know, they can get hacked. Yeah. So as far as, as a few questions that I guess, because the number one thing with all of that is trust, in my view is like, you know, if people trust something more and more, then it’s a stronger sort of system, and less likely to be driven by greed, panic, fear, etc. What was the pros and cons, if you like, of crypto, like if we ultimately heading towards something where we might be able to have more trust in a financial system than we currently have?

Dave Belvedere  53:23

Yeah, potentially. So I think if the people in on this so you know, sort of Ethereum, you know, who’s who’s running the show to agree.

Tim Hughes  53:35

So there’s trust there as well, compared to some phantom person with a white paper? Yeah. is less, less trustworthy, I guess. But yeah. Yeah.

Dave Belvedere  53:44

Sort of, yeah. Human nature, we sort of trust. If we can see somebody like that. That’s actually a real person. Yeah, there rather than like talking to a computer screen, we’ll be like, Yeah, who are you actually really talking to on the other side of that? So I think inherently, we will trust, obviously, the traditional market setups more because they are run by people. And that’s where, hopefully, you know, something like Ethereum can start to come in and sort of do that. But while you still have people who can misuse, I guess, the environment of like, these rug pools, and, you know, just doing pump and dump schemes and things like that, it does get hard to trust. Yeah, is everything on there. Really a scam or not? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So it’s sort of a double whammy where it’s like, you know, for myself personally, it’s like, yeah, I trust a theorem like I don’t think the Ethereum ecosystem or anything like that. It’s going to go away anytime soon. The changes that they’re making to it a sensible and things like that, and you can actually see and talk to the people at conferences. However, that contracts and like opportunities that then can be a part of Ethereum, yeah, that’s where it gets a bit dodgy. And that’s where you need to sort of like, okay, I trust this exchange more than the others, you know, uni swap, for example has been around on Ethereum for so long. Well, probably since, uh, since it started, right. And they’re, they’re a decentralised automatic market maker. I trust that, you know, they’ve been around for so long, you know, probably so many people have tried to hack their pools. Nothing’s really happened to it. So if I’m dealing with any swap as a DEX, I’m pretty, pretty confident that nothing’s bad’s going to happen, other than I might not get the best price on chain for my tokens.

Tim Hughes  55:45

But that’s the most likely weak link in that chain is the exchanges or that the middle the people in the middle between the consumer and the Ethereum safe using us? 

Dave Belvedere  55:56

Yes. And so sort of the users of Ethereum people are actually creating their own what we call DAPS. So decentralised applications. Yeah, that’s that’s where I think that that trust will start to fade. And and because crypto itself is, you know, it’s it’s quite volatile hasn’t had the best sort of, sort of time it’s been ups being down. It’s dumped to come back and don’t again. Yeah, a lot of people I think a lot of people look at and go cool, that might be a good way to, you know, make easy money because it’s just like going left, right and centre. But it can also backfire very quickly. Yeah. Where, where it sort of blurs the line is that it’s not treated as a traditional investment. Like because it is digitalized. And I can interact with it. And I can like, spend money on it. Like people treat it as money. But it’s really volatile money. 

Tim Hughes  56:51

If you’re willing to take advice from Matt Damon and Kiefer Sutherland. I mean, like, it’s so you know, yeah, they are very confident of it being a good move. 

Gene Tunny  57:01

Yeah. I’ve got a couple of two more questions. Dave. We’re probably getting close to time. Have you got a couple more Tim?

Tim Hughes  57:07

I’ve? No, I’m good. Thank you. I’ve been I’ve been enjoying as it’s gone on. And my big ones are gone. Thank you.

Gene Tunny  57:16

Yeah, I’ve learned a lot. It’s, it’s great. Would you have any examples of DAPS? That what are some daps that we might want to look at just so we can understand what what they are? 

Dave Belvedere  57:28

Oh, yeah, um, a couple of pretty, pretty fun ones. So there’s a game called wizards and dragons. Okay, it’s a it’s a decentralised application, but it’s also a game. It’s pretty fun. It released, I think, a couple of years ago. And what it is, is, you meant an NF T, and it has a chance to be a wizard, or dragon. And then based off of, if it’s a wizard, it can, like interact with, you can stake it. So you can actually say to the contract, hey, here’s my wizard, which is staking, and it might earn certain rewards. So there’s a coin that’s associated with the game as well. So there’s a coin called windy. So it’s wizards and dragons. And that coin can then be used to spend on the contracts to interact with the actual game and stuff like that. So it’s not like I’m continually having to feed ETH it’s just like gas fees at that point. Or if you get a dragon like you have chances to steal wizards when they go and stake and non stake . It’s, it’s it’s pretty, pretty fun.

Gene Tunny  58:36

This is a computer game, is it?

Dave Belvedere  58:38

Yeah, it’s a game on chain. Yeah. So it’s a game that actually happens within the blockchain again, So the game is happening per transaction. So I send a transaction to do something with the game, like the contracts that make up the game are there. And then I like create a transaction to say, stake, my wizard, and then there’s a chance if dragons are staked, that my wizard goes to a dragon.

Gene Tunny  59:08

But okay, I’m gonna ask a really dumb question. But do I see a wizard on the screen? Or do I see dragons?

Dave Belvedere  59:15

Yeah, you can see both. So like, depending on what you’ve meant it, you get an NFT, which is a type of token so a non-fungible token so yeah, they were the ones that got talked about, I think, why the last couple of years because like, yeah, okay, and then the punks and the apes they’re all worth stupid amount of money. 

Tim Hughes  59:37

So these are basically like, it’s an in the form of like having something that’s identifiable as being unique, even though it can be copied. So taking the Mona Lisa as an example of one painting, but there’s millions of copies. And so it’s basically a digital form a non fungible token or nifty I’ve heard them called Tim Ferriss calls them nifties. But so base Having something that can be identified as being the original and owned by a person.

Dave Belvedere  1:00:06

Yeah. And so we see that as like a token. It’s just really like a coin is not quite an NFT. Because there are many coins. But it’s like an NFT, sort of superset. There’s only like one coin that represents this thing. And so yeah, so like, it’s just a token. And yeah, that that has things. So like, I can go interact with the contract, you know, meant for a bunch of ETH. So that’s sort of how they get their startup is like, hand over like point zero seven ETH or point zero five ETH, to mint and have a random chance to generate a wizard or a dragon. And then they all sort of give you that NFT. So you’ll get that token back. And then yeah, you can use that token to then interact with the rest of their contract on the actual Ethereum chain.

Gene Tunny  1:00:54

Right. Okay. And are they used in these massive multiplayer games as well, online?

Dave Belvedere  1:01:01

The coins could be. Yeah. So I think they’re starting to come out. I think I read recently with like, digital coins. Yeah. But to sort of looking to go to be fair, that sort of already was kind of going there place anyway. So like, I could pay a bunch of money to the Microsoft store and have like, xbox credits. That was sort of already the lien. And then yeah, what, you know, one of the good things that has come about sort of what’s happening with blockchains? And things like that is Yeah, sort of companies are realising, actually, that’s, that’s a pretty nifty way of like, dealing with this sort of securing that data and making sure like, oh, okay, we can’t accidentally do something. Like, you can’t go back and try and change those records. It’s sort of there permanently. And you can follow a transaction at a time. For bookkeeping purposes, or, yeah.

Gene Tunny  1:01:59

I’m gonna have to come back to smart contracts in a future episode, because I think that’s probably its own episode, is it? 

Dave Belvedere  1:02:07

There’s a lot yeah, there’s a lot, a lot of things to talk about, I guess, in contracts, and yeah, sort of, you know, that’s how that how they get built, you know, how they sort of interact. And you know, that’s where these bugs can can arise. And, you know, people might accidentally do something and somebody takes money.

Gene Tunny  1:02:27

Yeah. And I’d be fascinated to know who the parties to the contract are. I mean, could Tim and I have a smart contract where if certain conditions are met or if the then Tim transfers Ethereum. To me, so if, I mean, is there a way of programming, it’s so that if it’s, say, let’s take the weather, for example, if the maximum temperature for Brisbane ends up being over 35 degrees on one day in the future, then the smart contract, picks that up, and then transfers, I don’t know, one ETH from me from Tim.

Dave Belvedere  1:03:01

Yeah, it can do. So there’s, there’s a bunch of things that need to happen and be in place for that. But yeah, you can store like money. So you can store ETM with the smart contract, because it is itself really just an address. And then yeah, you like a transaction is usually always going to be the trigger just can’t do stuff automatically. You always have to trigger it with a transaction. And yeah, you can just be like, Oh, okay, cool.

Gene Tunny  1:03:27

All you have to trigger it with a transaction. Okay. So it’s not, it’s not going to automatically. It’s not a way of automating transactions. And I understood that.

Dave Belvedere  1:03:35

Yeah. Yeah, everything that happens on the chain has to have triggered from a transaction. Okay, so transaction might trigger a bunch of things to happen. Yeah, and interact with a bunch of stuff on chain. But yes, every everything will come through from a certain transaction has triggered this thing, which might then trigger events, but, you know, cascade of roll on.

Gene Tunny  1:04:00

Okay, I might have to look at that in a future episode. I promise. I’ve only got one more question. You got any more, but,

Tim Hughes  1:04:07

you know, I just want to comment, um, not surprisingly, to hear that wizards and dragons entered the conversation seems to be a natural progression from the smartest of the smart in, you know, the 80s or whatever it is, whatever they’ve come through to this point. And no doubt behind some of this technology or this, these theories.

Dave Belvedere  1:04:31

We’re all we’re all nerds on the inside. Right. So

Tim Hughes  1:04:33

yeah, but it’s great. It’s sort of like a bit there’s a human element to that as well, which is nice to see.

Gene Tunny  1:04:39

Great. Final question, Dave. For you. What are the use cases for crypto Why do you think it’s good to for you personally to be in crypto?

Dave Belvedere  1:04:51

It’s it’s a fairly exciting field. So I’m I’m a software engineer by trade. I studied as a computer systems engineer And it’s can be difficult to try and see how technology technology progresses through the years. So that, you know, unless you’re sort of, say deep in with Google and working on their, you know, bleeding edge stuff. For the most part, it’s all kind of pretty much the same. And so it’s pretty cool to see something. So you know, there’s this whole blockchain theories and the cryptographic proofs and stuff. I think we’re around since I think the 80s. So it’s always interesting to see how that is getting transformed and evolved into something new. And then yeah, then being used and sort of one of one of the cool things, I think that’s coming, a part of this, it’s sort of attaching itself to sort of a wider push of everyone should be and I think, you know, I think if you look at the world today, most of the kids growing up today are very computer literate. And it is sort of continuing to push that, like, computers are just going to become more and more part of it. And I think the common school like programming, or reading or writing code, should be sort of start to become one of the fundamental things just because of the heavy involvement that we start to have. So understanding why things are doing things, right. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  1:06:21

Now, the other part of that is your you personally, so assuming I may be incorrect, but I’m assuming you own some crypto of some kind. So do you what are the use cases? Why? What value do you see in having it all? So Lars Emmerich, for example, he’s concerned about the value of the US dollar, he’s concerned about all of the money printing, he’s concerned about hyperinflation, what are the what are the use cases? Or what would motivate you to have crypto?

Dave Belvedere  1:06:52

Yeah, it’s, I guess, you know, personally, I’m pretty, pretty basic. For me, it’s just a fun, high risk investment. So I see it as something that that might pay off. Or it might not. You know, personally, I don’t have a lot of money in it. But it also, because I’m in the area, it helps me like interact with chains. And yeah, play around with like, games, such as, like wizards and dragons. sort of have

Tim Hughes  1:07:18

There as a confession. Yeah. But

Dave Belvedere  1:07:21

I still see it as a very high risk asset. Yeah. Yeah. I’m still relatively young. So to me if I lose, lose what I’ve got, personally, I’ve only got about 20k. There. It’s not gonna hit me hard. Hit me hard in terms of I’m gonna make that back over my lifetime of work. Yeah. But you know if it if it goes and like, whoo, and yeah, all of a sudden that 20k goes to 100k. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  1:07:47

Right. Yeah. 

Tim Hughes  1:07:49

But that’s actually a good point. Because none of this is in any way. investment advice from us. Oh, goodness, exactly. You know, like, it’s not investment advice. And the one thing that gets mentioned all the time, it’s like going to the horse races or something like that, you know, if you’ve got something that you can afford to lose, then go for it, because there’s a high risk investment and see what happens.

Dave Belvedere  1:08:09

I honestly look at this and go, it should be treated as a casino like, yeah, you gotta walk into a casino going, like, I have money. If I lose it, I’m not gonna, like get carried out by security. Yeah. Sounds like you can afford to lose the money. It is. Yeah, extremely high risk. And I think, like, especially now with the sort of scenarios that happened, like the FTX collapse, and you know, some of the other things that are happening there. And like the US government sort of taking notice, or like the SEC, taking notice more parts and like, pulling out rulings and stuff, it will become a little bit of, like, no one is really certain what’s going to happen in the area. Yeah. So it’s probably, you know, at this point still, quite, it’s probably riskier than it was before, because, you know, the SEC might turn around and say no, crypto goodbye, and like, you shut out the entire US market, like, that’s not gonna play well, for crypto.

Tim Hughes  1:09:07

Sec? The Securities

Dave Belvedere  1:09:08

and Exchange.

Gene Tunny  1:09:10

Okay, that’s been terrific. I mean, we’ve learned so much. I mean, I’ve never I’ve been blown away with all this info. And I think it’s helped me understand more what’s going on and it’s dispelled some, or it’s got rid of some ideas or misunderstandings I had. So that’s been really good. Are there any final thoughts? Any final words before we wrap up?

Dave Belvedere  1:09:37

No. Like, yeah, I encourage everyone to like, play around with it. Obviously, I think it’s an interesting technology. I think it’s going to be around for a long time. But in its current form, hard to say. I wish I would probably say I’m confident that as we know crypto today is probably not what we’re gonna see in the future. Yeah, this is sort of the first building block towards something that will become widespread.

Tim Hughes  1:10:08

Terrific. Now Dave, I really appreciate it because so we’ve often talked about this gene and I and it we we have fumbled in the dark somewhat. And I’ve been looking forward to the time where we can get somebody on and talk in depth, as we have done today. So yeah, I’ve really enjoyed that and got a lot from it. So thank you for coming in.

Gene Tunny  1:10:28

Dave Belvedere, thanks so much for your time. Thanks. Right. Hi, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact@economicsexplored.com, or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

1:11:19

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au

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