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Podcast episode

Franchising Fitness: Lessons from the Expansion of Spartans Boxing Clubs w/ Russell Harrison, CEO – EP252

Show host Gene Tunny interviews Russell Harrison, CEO of Spartans Boxing Club. They discuss the rise of boutique boxing gyms, the benefits of boxing for fitness and mental health, and the challenges of expanding a fitness franchise globally. Russell describes how Spartans uses technology to enhance the member experience and how boxing training can benefit corporate executives and employees. Hear from Russell about Spartans’ “White Collar Boxing” events, where high-performing corporate executives and professionals undergo 12 weeks of boxing training, culminating in a black-tie gala event. 

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You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Apple Podcast and Spotify.

What’s covered in EP252

  • Introduction (0:00)
  • Ensuring Safety in Boxing (3:13)
  • Fitness Benefits of Boxing (6:01)
  • Training and Techniques at Spartans Boxing Clubs (8:32)
  • Expansion into the Australian Market (10:20)
  • Boutique Fitness Market and Franchise Model (13:43)
  • Gender Balance and Market Demographics (35:03)
  • Corporate Wellness and Holistic Health (35:20)
  • White Collar Boxing (43:10)
  • Final Thoughts and Future Plans (45:16)

Takeaways

  1. Community-Driven Gyms: Spartans Boxing Club focuses on creating accessible, community-oriented gyms that cater to a wide demographic, including families and professionals.
  2. Franchise Success: Spartans Boxing’s franchise model is designed to be mutually beneficial, with a focus on providing value and support to franchisees.
  3. Holistic Wellness: Beyond physical fitness, Spartans Boxing integrates mental health programs, showing the importance of a holistic approach to well-being.
  4. Global Expansion: Spartans Boxing has successfully expanded into multiple countries by adapting its business model to local markets and regulations.
  5. Boutique Fitness Trends: The rise of boutique gyms like Spartans Boxing reflects a shift towards more personalised, community-focused fitness experiences.

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Links relevant to the conversation

Spartans Boxing Club:

https://spartansboxing.com

A study reporting “Boxing appears to be an effective treatment for persons with Parkinson’s disease”:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9837687

Transcript: From Academia to Impact: TFranchising Fitness: Lessons from the Expansion of Spartans Boxing Clubs w/ Russell Harrison, CEO – EP252

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:05

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host. Gene Tunny, I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode. Please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Russell Harrison, CEO of Spartans Boxing Club. Welcome to the program.

Russell Harrison  00:38

Gene. Thanks for having me. Much appreciated.

Gene Tunny  00:41

Very good. It’s good to have you on Russ. You’re joining us from Singapore. So you’ve, you’ve started a network of Boxing Clubs. So can you tell us about this, please? What is it? What’s Spartans Boxing Club about? And, yeah, what’s the story so far? Please.

Russell Harrison  00:59

Yeah, thanks, Jean. And yeah, from, from sunny Singapore. So I’m originally from Melbourne, but glad to be away from Melbourne as we go through winters. But yeah, Spartans Boxing Clubs. That’s that’s what I do. We started the first club back in 2015 and the concept with Spartans was, was really simple. It was to create community boxing gyms in the community, for the community, and to make boxing accessible to people that may never have thought about boxing before. So typically, you know, if you think about boxing gyms, the typical image that people conjure up is, you know, big, tough guys punching each other in the face. And realistically, when you get into what makes the sport of boxing, one of the really unique things is it’s really great for its fitness benefits. It’s really great for mental health benefits and things like that. So what we were able to do with Spartans Boxing Clubs is we set up gyms that were a safe, inclusive environment. We started teaching boxing to kids as young as four years old. We did boxing classes for women, children, families, and a huge part of our demographic is, you know, working professionals. So, you know, not the typical people that would walk into a spit and sawdust kind of boxing gym. And so, you know, we’ve got lawyers and doctors and CEOs and, you know, all types of people that come into the gym, and they’re just really all about experiencing, you know, the benefits and the community that comes along with with Boxing Clubs. And so we did that well in Singapore, and we turned it into a franchise. And so now we’re sort of spread out right across Singapore. We’re now into we’re in Dubai, we’re in Cambodia, Philippines and in Australia as well. Now we launched our first gym down in Melbourne a few months ago, and so, yeah, we’re just sort of spreading that. We do some events and Academy stuff as well. But really the premise is to just make boxing accessible for everybody and let people experience the community of boxing.

Gene Tunny  03:03

Yeah, gotcha. You mentioned you’re trying to make it safe. Can I ask you about that? Because there are obviously a lot of concerns about boxing, and concerns about, I mean, boxers getting brain injuries, having long term conditions because of boxing, how do you ensure the safety of people who participate?

Russell Harrison  03:26

Yeah, look really great question, and that’s probably one of the the main ones that we get, especially with kids. You know, when parents put their kids into boxing, the first question that they ask us, is my kid going to end up with some sort of brain damage? Yeah. Now it’s really important to distinguish between, you know, boxing as the sport you know, so the, you know, the typical sort of famous faces that you see, the Mike Tyson’s, and you know, any professional boxers compared to, say, somebody that is taking part in boxing training for fitness benefits. And so, you know, one of the key things with that is that, you know, most of our members who join and come and box, they never compete, they never spar. And, you know, they’re not getting into the ring and getting punched in the face, so to speak. They’re learning technique. They’re learning how to box. They’re getting all of the fitness benefits, but they’re not necessarily getting in there and, you know, getting punched. And I think that’s another important sort of distinction, is, when we look at sort of, you know, the negative press, like you see boxes that have acquired brain injuries and those sorts of things, you know, it’s really, it’s a high level of boxing with, you know, really big punches, guys that are really strong and professional at what they do, hitting each Other repetitively over a long period of time. Yeah. And so, you know, people that are doing it for fitness, that are coming into the gym to experience it for fitness, they’re just not doing that stuff. They’re just not they’re just not getting hit like that. And so that’s really the important distinction. And then, of course, if you do go into that avenue of, okay, look, I do want to do sparring or. You know, I do want to compete, then obviously, there’s ways in which you can try and make sure that that’s that’s done safely, yeah, and so, you know, if we take kids, or if we take, you know, our lawyers, who may think that they want a box when they do their sparring, you know, they’re using headgear, they’re using the right type of safety equipment, you supervise. And so you make sure that it’s done in a way that people aren’t just getting, you know, bashed up.

Gene Tunny  05:23

Yeah, yeah, good point. And you’ve had a professional or semi professional boxing career yourself, have you? Yeah,

Russell Harrison  05:31

you’d call it semi professional, you know, I’ve had a handful of fights over the years. And, you know, I started boxing when I was a kid. I got put in boxing gyms when I was really young. I’ve been in and around boxing and martial arts since I was about eight years old. So I’ve competed in martial arts and boxing ever since I was young. But yeah, I’m just too old now, right?

Gene Tunny  05:55

Well, yeah, happens to us all, doesn’t it? And what do you see as a fitness benefits? What, what’s so good about boxing relative to, say, doing CrossFit or, I mean, all the other things, aerobics or whatever else you could do in the gym?

Russell Harrison  06:13

Look, I think there’s a huge amount of benefits. I mean, if you just want to compare, say, the standard fitness benefits that people want to look at. So if you do a one hour boxing session, you can easily burn 800 or 1000 calories. So if you were to just take, you know, the part that most people are interested in when they talk about fitness, you know, you’re absolutely torching calories. I think for me, and you know, I’m obviously an advocate and a lover of boxing, but I think one of the things that makes boxing really unique is that there is, there’s still a mastery of the sport, right? And so it is a martial art. And so, you know, unlike you may go into CrossFit, and by the way, nothing wrong with our CrossFit buddies around, but you may go into a CrossFit gym and you do a series of movements, and kind of, once you’ve learned it, well, you can get fitter, or you can burn more calories, or you can get a little bit stronger, but there’s not necessarily the art to it, the martial art to it. And so one of the beautiful things about boxing is, you know, you’re forever learning. And I think probably one of the other things that we talk a lot about within our business, we have a section of our business called Spartans mind, and this is where we’ve linked boxing programs to mental health programs, one of the first types of programs that’s been done around the world. And you know what we, a lot of people, talk about these days is, you know, terms like mindfulness. And you know, boxing is the ultimate form of mindfulness. When you’re there and you’ve got somebody in front of you and you’ve got, you know, punches coming towards you, you really have to be in that moment. So being locked in and having that level of concentration, there’s really huge benefits as well, with regards to your sort of mental, mental proficiency and this sort of stuff. So the other part as well, and this leads on to a complete different demographic. There is a fair body of research around boxing and the benefits with Parkinson’s. So for the elderly and people that have experienced issues with Parkinson’s, there is a body of research that talks around the benefits of boxing for that too. So the overall health and fitness benefits are really wide and varied, which stick to both physical and mental health, right? Okay,

Gene Tunny  08:23

interested in if you’ve got any links, please shoot them through. That sounds interesting. I mean, them doing the training, not necessarily hopping in the ring and sparring with someone, just doing the training and precisely. And what does it look like? Russ? I mean, there’s the work you do in the gym, there’s the, you know, hitting the punching bag, there’s the Speedball, or whatever it is. I mean, what do you what sort of training is it? And jog? I mean, running. What are you doing? What are you doing? All of the

Russell Harrison  08:49

all of the above, yeah. And, okay, you know, that’s one of the really interesting things about people that are training for boxing. It’s a really, there’s some statistics that float around. I’ll send you some of these links in terms of difficulty of sport, boxing is ranked as one of the top three most difficult sports to not just master, but to do. Because, as you’d mentioned before, you know, there’s all different types of things that you will use, and there’s all different types of fitness that you need. So you know, there’s cardio fitness, there’s Strength Fitness, there’s all of the mastery as well, which I’d mentioned before, yeah, but just to sort of paint the picture for someone that’s not come into the gym, you know, we work on things like agility and stretching. So again, you know, if we go into demographics of, you know, the elderly or senior folks, a lot of that agility and stretching type stuff is very, very helpful. You know, there’s jumping, skipping, Skip rope, so that, you know, that’s sort of the old, you know, stereotypical boxing thing. But, you know, skipping rope is synonymous with boxing gyms. There’s shadow boxing, so actually learning the technique. There’s pad work, there’s bag work. The Speedball is a sexy one. Yeah, everybody. Know, if you can master the Speedball, that looks great. Most people, they can’t get it that well. And then, of course, there’s, you know, all of the partner drills and sparring and all that sort of stuff. So it’s, it’s really wide and varied,

Gene Tunny  10:13

yeah, gotcha. Gotcha, okay. And I’m interested in, you know the fact that you’ve started in Singapore, and then you you’ve gone to Dubai and to Cambodia? Is it Cambodia?

Russell Harrison  10:27

Yeah, Cambodia, Philippines, Australia as well, and now

Gene Tunny  10:31

you come into Australia. So I’m just wondering now, I mean, you probably, I’m sure you’ve worked it all out, but are you concerned about the higher cost of doing business in Australia, regulatory issues. I mean, there’s, yeah, we’ve, we’ve had this pickup in insolvencies. I don’t know if you’ve seen the the statistics. There’s a lot of concern about all the economy slowing down and and I know you’re looking more long term, but like, how do you feel expanding into the Australian market? Are you are you hesitant? Or are you excited? What? How are you how are you thinking about that?

Russell Harrison  11:05

Yeah, great question. Again, probably all of the above. We’re excited. We tried to get into Australia for quite some time. And I think one of the really nice things about the Australian market so we are in the fitness franchising space. And so, you know, franchising laws in Australia are some of the most stringent in the world. Yep, you know, you’ve sort of got the US and Australia, which are really sort of the high benchmarks. And I think that’s great, because obviously that makes barriers to entry much higher. So it took us some time to enter the Australian market. I think when we compare markets that we’re used to, so if you look at or not that we’re used to, but where we started, if you look at Singapore and Dubai, you know, costs are doing business, their rents are incredibly high. Yeah. So you know, in comparison, the rents in Australia are much more reasonable. But of course, staffing models need to change in Australia, because cost of staffing is much higher in Australia. So there’s little tweaks that we need to make to our financial model to make sure that our franchises are feasible. And you know, that’s sort of, I guess, one of the key things that we’ve done when we come into the market now, I think what is very interesting in compared to the markets that we’ve been in fitness franchising. In Australia, there’s a huge array of brands that have been incredibly successful, developing great franchise businesses. And the space that we operate in is the boutique fitness space. And so there’s, there’s a bunch of brands that have done really well there, and brands definitely scale in Australia. So I think that’s an exciting thing for us. And if you get into boxing specific as a modality, Australia really is still operating gyms that we consider to be, you know, old school boxing gyms, yeah, the first few boxing gyms that I was in a kid as a kid were, you know, an old Scout hall with a few bags and an ex boxer trainer. And, you know, they’re really sort of your old spit and sorter salt of the earth kind of boxing gyms, but they’re not necessarily accessible to everybody. And so the opportunity for us coming into the Australia market is that we see a real gap there, in the niche that we operate in, which is community driven boxing gyms, making accessible for everybody, but also authentic. And so for us, that’s the reason that it’s quite exciting. And even with the, you know, the sort of broader economic conditions, and I think that’s globally. You know, markets are tough everywhere, and key cost drivers are changing at a rate of knots. I think there’s tweaks that you make to the model in each of those markets, which makes the model definitely one that’s workable.

Gene Tunny  13:52

Okay, that’s good. You mentioned the boutique fitness space in Australia, and that there are some successful brands, just so I understand what exactly you mean by boutique fitness space. Could you just give me some examples, please? Russ,

Russell Harrison  14:06

yeah, sure. So the boutique fitness space is typically categorized by small footprint gyms and class based training. Okay, so if you give me an idea that the the fitness or gym model that most of us grew up on is the big box model. So you know, 10,000 20,000 square foot gym where you know the model is, you have to sign up 1000s of members, and maybe they come or maybe they don’t. That doesn’t really matter, right? And that’s sort of that model that we grew up on, the big box model boutique fitness is characterized by something which is almost the opposite of that. So small footprint gyms, so typically 150 to 200 square meter footprint class based training. So people training together, and it’s typically around different fit. Modalities. And so the most popular modalities in boutique are yoga, pilates, functional fitness, boxing now. So boxing now sits between the third to fifth most book boxing modality in the world for fitness. And so that’s sort of the boutique market that we talk about. And I think the key characteristic with Boutique is it’s all about building communities in and around those those clubs, yeah. And so it’s the real, if you think about it in Australia terms, it’s the real sports club mentality, you know, where the footy club or the cricket club becomes a real feature of that local community. And so you’re trying to do that with different fitness modalities, yeah,

Gene Tunny  15:40

gotcha, okay, I’ve got a couple of questions about your customer base. What’s the gender balance? I mean, is it mostly guys or girls too? I mean, what’s the gender balance?

Russell Harrison  15:52

Really, really great, great question. And I think that’s one of the things that has really allowed us to sort of scale and grow. You know, we’re now about 65% men, right? So that’s a pretty surprising gender split for most people when they hear boxing, I think the you know, if we talk about women’s boxing as a sport globally, there’s a lot going on there. It’s a really, really exciting time. So we are seeing women taking part in perhaps these non traditional female sports, such as boxing or weightlifting as well. So you know, that’s been really interesting for us. And I think probably one of the other things that has driven that gender split for us is we talk a lot about, you bring we do boxing classes for kids. And so one of the things that we talk a lot about is kids bring families, and families build communities. And so we put a huge focus on bringing the kids in, because we want the family to come. And so, you know, a good result for us is kids join dad joins, mum joins, not particularly in that order, but you get the whole family there and they train together.

Gene Tunny  17:02

Gotcha. Okay, that sounds good. I like that. Now you’ve you’ve got your boutique gyms or your Boxing Clubs in Singapore, Dubai and Cambodia. What’s the market like? There? Is it mainly expats in those places, or is it, do you have locals come to the gyms? What’s the market like

Russell Harrison  17:28

in Singapore? It’s heavily local, with some expats. And you know, that’s also got a lot to do with it. We’ve been in operation in Singapore now for nine years, and a lot’s changed. Singapore itself used to be heavily expat, and it’s not so much anymore, right, so, but we’ve always had a heavy skew towards locals in Singapore. In Dubai, it’s pretty much the opposite. And again, that’s based on, you know, Dubai in general, almost everyone in Dubai is an expat. I think it’s about 70 or 80% of the population there is expat. Developing markets is a little bit more interesting, and it really depends on your locations in developing markets. For our concept, we’ve only got one in Cambodia. The concept there is, we’re in a luxury hotel. So there’s a boxing club inside the luxury hotel. So we’re pretty much the mercy of the type of guests that go through the hotel itself. In the Philippines, you’d be surprised, but we’re heavily local. And I think one of the interesting things in developing markets, so whether we talk about the Philippines or Vietnam or Indonesia, or any of these others, is that there is a huge growing middle class in these developing countries. And so bringing in international brands such as ours is really attractive to, you know, those middle class locals, and that’s typically the demographic that we attract in those markets. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  19:01

Gotcha. Okay, that sounds good. Back to the some of the business issues. I’m interested in the fact that, I mean, this is a so it’s a franchise arrangement. You mentioned the regulations around franchises, and I mean, they’re there for a reason, and they’ve been concerns about exploitation of people. Actually should know this. Who’s is it the franchisee who buys the the franchise, or are you the franchisor? You’d wear the franchisor. You’re the franchisor. Okay, yeah. How do you get that win? Win for you and the franchisee, what does it look like? Because, I mean, I mean, I know. I don’t expect you’re doing this. I’m trust you’re not. But there’s all of those. They’re all those concerns that there are some dodgy, it looks like there were some dodgy operators, particularly in the food space there, where they’re selling product. To the franchisees, and they have to buy it, but the quality has declined over time. And, you know, there’s just really awful stories. How do you get that win win for you and the franchisees? Yeah.

Russell Harrison  20:11

So look, I think if you talk about Australia, I think the you know, the legislation, the franchising laws in Australia, are very, very clear in terms of how that has to happen. Now, obviously that doesn’t negate everything, but I think probably for us, if we back step from Australia, we set our franchise model up in Singapore, and there’s no franchising laws in Singapore whatsoever. It’s just common law. And so I think one of the key things for us, or the principle that we’ve built our franchise model on, is that we always have to be providing value to the franchisees. So we see our role as innovator and adding value. So when you grow up in a market like Singapore, you just have to provide that value. There’s no legislation or mechanism to protect anybody. So the fact that we grew up in that type of an environment, we really leaned into the fact that what we’re doing has to be advantageous to our franchisees. Now there’s a few things that you can set up commercially that make sure that it’s a win win for everybody. So for instance, the royalties that we charge, we charge percentage of revenue that the franchisees do. We don’t charge flat fees, so there’s a share of success in the commercial model. Yeah. And I think that’s really important one as well. And I think again, if we sort of jump back to Australia, I think one of the things that you have to do is with all of your non disclosure documents and these sorts of things. You can’t mandate a franchisee using a certain supplier. They’re able to go out and source their suppliers as long as they can, you know, do things according to spec, yeah. So as the part of the franchise model, of course, you will provide options. And I think, you know you need to, you need to outline who the suppliers are and what the relationships are. So that’s all done really clearly in Australia. But that is one of the things in franchising that we’ve always got to make sure that we’re aware of, because there are plenty of cautionary tales around of, you know, franchisees getting the raw end of the stick. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  22:18

gotcha. And how do you like do you vet the people who get the franchise? I mean, what’s the what’s the process like, if say, I want to set up a boxing gym or Spartans Boxing Club, do I make an application and you you’ve interviewed me? Or what’s the process look like? Russ,

Russell Harrison  22:35

yeah. So look, it’s a pretty extensive process. You know, other than sort of buying a house. This is typically the largest purchase that a lot of people will make. Yeah, you know, we’re typically talking to franchisees anywhere from three to 12 months before they actually bite the bullet and decide that they’re going to do it. The process itself usually involves about six to eight rounds of calls and interviews, then there’s KYC, there’s application forms and all of that that goes along with it. And you know, I guess my background before running the boxing gyms, I was a 15 year recruitment guy, so you know, we’ve built in some pretty robust recruitment processes and procedures as well throughout that process, but it’s pretty extensive. There’s a lot that goes into it. You know, quite often we want someone, they might not necessarily want us, and vice versa, yeah.

Gene Tunny  23:36

And so you’ll have, you’ll have an operation here in Australia. So you’ve got to set up a company in Australia or a subsidiary in Australia, and you will have people, will you, and you will be checking that the quality is at the right level. They’re delivering what they need to do as franchisees,

Russell Harrison  23:54

correct, correct. So, if you like the so in terms of the corporate structure, so we’ve got a an Australian company which is 100% owned subsidiary of our HQ from here in Singapore, yeah, so, and that’s very important, because obviously, with the franchising laws and that sort of thing is all relevant to that business, the backbone of, you know, quality standards, audits, process, procedures, and all of that sort of stuff is built around our digitized franchise management system. So everything that the franchisee needs to do, from onboarding to training to audit to dashboards, analytics to time, sheeting, inventory, all of that is built around the technology. So we can basically see how that business is being run from anywhere in the world, gotcha. But then at the same time, obviously we need to, you know, we have to go into the gyms themselves, make sure that they look and feel how they’re supposed to feel. And I think one of the key things to highlight with our business, because it is sports and. Fitness coaching is a huge part of that quality and standards process, and so we have something called Spartans Boxing Academy, and that’s where we’ve basically set up our own accreditation courses to make sure that all of our boxing coaches go through a process to be able to safe and properly coach boxing the way that we want that rolled out, and so we roll that Academy out globally, so any coaches that coach in our gyms have to meet certain quality standards.

Gene Tunny  25:32

Gotcha. Okay. Okay. That makes sense. That makes sense. So you mentioned KYC before, know your customer. That makes sense, that you’ve got to do that. Can I ask you what what happened with F 45 I mean, I’ve seen all this news about F 45 Jim’s collapsing. Are you worried about that sort of thing? Do you know what the story is there?

Russell Harrison  25:52

Yeah, I know it very well, very well. I mean, F 45 for anybody in my line of work, was the North Star for a long time, right? Fantastic business, an amazing concept. And you know, the growth trajectory of that business was nothing short of amazing. I’ll be careful how I answer this. Okay, they went for IPO, and they listed the business on the NASDAQ, and to get it to that IPO, they obviously, they grew that. They grew it hard, right? And so, at least from afar, you know, they had X number of units sold globally, which were obviously on the books but weren’t yet opened and delivered. And they had a huge backlog in terms of opening and stuff like that. And so I think that’s where they started to encounter some, some issues. Long story short, they got delisted a little while after, and that’s sort of when it really hit the, you know, hit the press and that sort of thing. I think I don’t know what their failure rates are in F 40 fives now, and I think that’s a one of the key metrics that franchises are measured on three year ROI, as well as failure rates. Yeah, I don’t know whether or not they had higher failure rates or not, but I do know that the winners were winners in F 40 fives and the others weren’t so much. But also, covid happened to those guys. So, you know, there’s a lot. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  27:24

I just saw all the media about it. I thought, oh, that doesn’t look good. And I just wonder if that’s something that makes you hesitant about gyms. And, yeah, I mean, I mean, it’s a big risk opening a business, as you know. And, yeah, I mean, good, good luck. I mean, I hope, hope it works out. And I mean, it sounds like you got to, got it worked out. You got a good system. You’ve, you’ve tested it in these other markets. And I must say, I do, I do like the concept. I like, I like the idea. So it’s, it’s definitely good in that regard. So, yeah,

Russell Harrison  27:56

I think just on, you know, on that sort of, you know, the F 45 or even any fitness franchise globally. You know, we pay a lot of attention to the North Stars. There’s some amazing brands. A lot of them have come out of Australia, yeah, and not necessarily the global giants. You know, some of the sort of mid tier fitness franchise brands that have come out of Australia are amazing. So I think for us, we do sort of two things. We look at the North Stars, and we keep a close eye on those guys, and then we probably keep a closer eye on the cautionary tales. Yeah, and, you know, we try and make sure that we act accordingly.

Gene Tunny  28:34

Yeah, what are some of the mid you mentioned, mid tier fitness groups or companies that have come out of Australia. Are there any that really excite you? Mean, what are some that you would you would say are worth looking at?

Russell Harrison  28:50

Yeah, absolutely. I think probably the most successful one out of odd reason oz recently is BFT so body fit training, yep, yep. So they’ve done incredibly well. They’re in a functional fitness space. There’s a few others in that space as well. Fitstop, out of Australia, has done incredibly well. Yeah, they’ve expanded into the US markets. If you go further down and into a different modality, you’ve got Pilates cakes, pilates, who were out of Queensland originally. I believe they’ve done really, really well in the boxing fitness space. Danny Green’s business, ubX, they’ve done a really good job at Circuit style boxing training. So quite different to what we do. They’re out of Oz as well. So, you know, there’s, if you look at the Asia Pacific region, when you go along to sort of, you know, any conferences and that sort of thing, there’s heaps of brands out of Australia that are really well looked up to,

Gene Tunny  29:54

right? So we’re punching above our weight, so to speak. So that’s so to speak.

Russell Harrison  29:58

No pun intended. And very good on the functional

Gene Tunny  30:02

fitness, just so I understand it. This is where you got the is this kettlebells, and this is the sled you’re pushing. The sled loaded with weights, that sort of thing, battle ropes, or whatever they are, yeah, that

Russell Harrison  30:15

sort of stuff, you know, body weight exercises, you know, pull ups, you know, all that kind of stuff. So look really simple modalities, but just engaging for people. And I think one of the what all of the really great brands have done, and again, talking about North Stars, this is something that we do. They’ve harnessed technology in really simple concepts. And so for the average punter off the street, what you’re able to do is you’re able to show progress. Essentially, what members buy from any fitness business is accountability and motivation, right? And the best way to do that is to be able to track progress. And so technology plays a huge part. So when we look at functional fitness, the best brands have done a really great job at gamifying that and, you know, bringing technology to the fore. You know, that’s what we’ve done in the boxing space. If you go into a Spartans boxing gym, on the punching bags, there’s a sensor, so when you you hit the bag, it tells you how many times you’ve hit it, it tells you how hard you’ve hit it, and it keeps a score up on the screen. And so you can compete against your friends. You and I not, might not want to punch each other in the face gene, but it’s still nice to have that competition. So you know, we both see a score up on the board, yeah, creates that friendly competition, and then people get sent those scores as well. So I think all of the good boutique fitness brands have done that well

Gene Tunny  31:40

now that you mentioned that, I mean, that raises the possibility of extended reality, virtual reality, doesn’t it? Is that something you’re looking at?

Russell Harrison  31:48

Absolutely? Yeah, absolutely. And so to give you an idea, the technology that we use coming up, try not to make this session time sensitive. But so coming up next month, we’re doing a global competition against all of our gyms, where the gyms can compete to who gets, you know, who racks up the top scores for this punching technology. You can do it by gym. You can do it by individual. And so we’re rolling that out as a global competition. And again, that’s just a tool for members to be able to engage, be able to see progress, and you want people coming back. And if you link that to what I was saying before, in terms of the big box model, one of the key features to Boutique is you may only have a few 100 members in your gym, but you want them in there, 345, times a week. And that is how you create communities, and that’s how they become really sticky,

Gene Tunny  32:52

yeah, gotcha Okay, right? And in terms of the like it is boutique, you got fewer members in the big box gyms now they’ve got they’ve got a bigger floor area, they’ve got more gear. I’m just thinking, how does the price, or the cost per member compare with the big box gyms?

Russell Harrison  33:13

Yeah, so cost per member, we’re typically a premium so Boutique is premium price, okay, right? And so that’s how the sort of economics of it works. But again, if you look at just sort of a, you know, gym level economics, and this is one of the benefits to our franchisees, yeah, the break even number of members on a boutique gym is much lower than, say, a big box, yeah, you know. So typically in our gyms, you’re looking at 120 to 140 members to break even. Yeah, right. And so that’s one of the real attractive things for our franchisees. They can get to their OPEX break even by launch or within the first few months of running the gym, and they’re typically profitable from year one. So you know, if you look at that as an investment in comparison to, say, doing big box, where you need 1000s of members to break even, and your ROI is typically, you know, beyond seven to 10 years on big box. You know, within boutique, it’s much shorter, right? Your ROI in boutique can be anywhere from three to seven years. Gotcha

Gene Tunny  34:17

buy a premium price. What do you mean? You mean 20% 50% 100%

Russell Harrison  34:25

it depends. It depends because, so if you use Australia as an example, yeah, the industry is quite fragmented. So you know, you can walk into a gym down in a local neighborhood, and you know, it might cost you five bucks an entry, whereas, you know, if you go and do another gym, similar concept, that might cost you 120 bucks a month. So, but to give you an idea, in Australia, a boutique fitness membership is typically going to cost you around 220 to 280 bucks a month. Okay? Boutique, yeah, right, yeah, some of them will probably. Maybe premium out over that, whereas, if you take a big box type membership, they could be anywhere from, you know, 80 to 120 bucks a month. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  35:09

yeah, gotcha. Okay, yeah, that makes sense, right? Okay. Well, before we wrap up, I’m keen to ask you about the corporate side of things. And you mentioned you have lawyers and professionals that are coming to your to your gyms. I mean, what do you see as the benefits for them? I mean, it’s about fitness, which is a good thing in itself. But do you see that this translates into higher productivity? You know, healthier people, less absenteeism. I mean, this is one of the things I’ve been interested in, is there an ROI from doing this training, which might make it beneficial for companies to invest in this sort of thing? Are you able to talk about that? Please? Russ,

Russell Harrison  35:51

so I can’t talk about it from an ROI point of view for companies. I’m not sort of, you know, the corporate wellness guy within a corporate but what I can talk about is that, you know, all companies these days have got, you know, well structured corporate wellness programs, as we know, you know, they can go anywhere from EAP all the way through to really simple stuff, like, you know, bulk Purchase of jib memberships. Yeah, I think probably post covid, one of the things that both corporates and businesses like mine have really leaned into is this whole concept of holistic wellness, yeah, and so, you know, the doctor or lawyer who comes into a Spartans boxing gym, and, you know, punches the bag three or four times a week. Yeah, sure, he might torch some calories, but in terms of the benefits for him, in terms of stress relief, in terms of, you know, mental health, you know, in fact, I mentioned this before, but we’d set up this arm of our business a few years ago. There’s a guy that works within Spartans by the name of Dr Paul Englert. So he’s a PhD. He specializes in a few different things around corporate leadership and stuff like that. Yeah, that’s his wheelhouse. Yeah. He’s his PhD thesis was on something called future selves, which is sort of a segment set of cognitive ideas around, you know, how people create a version of themselves across different areas of their their lives. Yeah, and so through all of that thinking and boxing programs and stuff like that, we created this concept of Spartans mind. And Spartans mind is the part of our business which focuses on holistic health. So it’s not just telling the doctors and lawyers, Hey, come on in because you want to punch something and you know, you’ll lose a little bit of weight. It’s the whole thing. It’s stress relief, it’s being able to tap into mental health services. So we link up with psychologists and psychotherapists, where, if they’re giving somebody type of therapy, and it may not be some serious pathology, it could be something like, Hey, I need help with stress or anxiety or whatever else. They will plug their patients into our programs. And so I think the general consensus, even just anecdotally, is that this idea of holistic hellness, holistic wellness is, you know, that’s the way the world is most definitely going,

Gene Tunny  38:22

Yeah, absolutely. And Spartans or Spartans minds or Spartan mines, is that part of your core offering, or is that an extra? That’s something extra you have to pay for?

Russell Harrison  38:33

No, so it’s you’d have to pay for it. So just to give you a real quick sort of, the main three pillars of our business are gyms, events and the Academy, okay, the three main pillars of the business and Spartans mind underpins all of that. So it’s like an enabler of our business. Within Spartans mind, we’ve got different programs. So we have a program where we help help youth at risk and ex offenders. So there’s programs built around getting those groups into into boxing programs, as well as counseling programs. We have another program which helps people to optimize so, you know, the everyday person off the street to make sure that they’re getting the best out of themselves. And the other program is the one that I’d mentioned before, which is repair, so we partner up with psychologists and where people are getting help with therapy, the psychologists plug them into our boxing programs. So it’s not an additional charge. It’s part of the DNA of what we do. We just were able to put a bit of a brand across it. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  39:36

yeah. I imagine that’s difficult. I mean, it’s good. You’re doing it, but working with ex offenders, because they face all sorts of challenges reintegrating into the community, and if they don’t reintegrate, then they’re more likely to reoffend and go back to prison. So it’s good that you’re you’re doing that. That’s more of a comment. No need to respond. I have to ask you. Mentioned before you talked about bulk purchase of gym memberships, there was a term. You used EAP,

Russell Harrison  40:01

yeah, yep. So the employee assistance programs, you know, companies have been, yep, doing those for years. And I think, you know, again, I when I was jumping on this to talk about the sort of corporate wellness stuff, I wanted to make sure that I didn’t sort of step outside of my my wheelhouse, there’s, there’s some really sophisticated models for the way that corporates now buy, you know, the total wellness package, and that could be anything from what we do fitness. And there’s some people who are much, much smarter than me, who design those overall programs and also sell those programs on the fitness side, yeah. But I’ve, you know, from where we sit as the, let’s call us the vendor as the operator. You know, we’ve seen amazing things, not just in in Singapore, but in Dubai as well. You know, I’ll just give you a sort of, maybe a couple of examples of

Gene Tunny  40:58

fuel that is

Russell Harrison  41:01

probably the one of the better ones that I’ve seen here in Singapore is done through one of the international schools here, and they have somebody that runs their sort of entire PE and wellness program. What this guy does? He basically brings in faculty, students, PTA the entire school community, and taps them into not just fitness programs, but wellness events. Wellness could be anything from, you know, fitness all the way through to, you know, mental health and wellness, you know, retreats, all of that sort of stuff. But they basically build this into the fabric of the entire school community. And so, you know, they have people participating in triathlons, they do bodybuilding competitions, they come along to the boxing gym. But I think the beauty of what they do, and the reason that I see that as a real best in class, is because they really get the school community behind it, everybody. So that’s a really great example. I think a couple of the big banks in Singapore do varying things, from health and wellness events through to team building events. You know, we constantly have groups of bankers coming through boxing and, you know, they usually want to hit each other, but trying to avoid them from doing that. And then, you know, one of the other things that I I see, which is really unique, you know, I’ve got a recruitment business here. We do something that’s called boxing and beers. And so, you know, Friday afternoon, we get a bunch of clients all come along. They all train together. Most of them have never boxed, trained together, sweat together, and after that, there’s a networking event with beers. Now, obviously that’s not corporate wellness event. That’s not corporate wellness per se, but it most definitely talks to that corporate audience.

Gene Tunny  42:51

Yeah, yeah. Okay, that’s it. All sounds all. Sounds good. Russ, this has been terrific. I’ve really enjoyed learning about what you’re up to with your your Boxing Clubs there with Spartans Boxing Club, it’s been, been a really. It’s great what you’re doing, and I hope it does go well in Australia. Anything else before we wrap up? Anything you would like to have covered, anything you think’s important for for us to know at the moment about what you’re up to with Spartans.

Russell Harrison  43:26

No, I appreciate you saying that gene. One thing that I will mention because it’s, again, it’s relevant to corporates. With our events business, we have a concept called White Collar boxing, and this is, as the name suggests, you know, some people, high performing individuals, want to run marathons, and some people want to climb climb Everest. We’ve got a crazy bunch of people that decide they want to have a boxing fight. And so, you know, the demographic that we attract is typically, you know, CEOs, MDS, founders of companies, entrepreneurs, bankers, etc. And through this process, they sign themselves up for a 12 week training camp. They come in, they train and act like fighters for 12 weeks. And at the end of it, it culminates in a black tie event, a huge gala event at a five star hotel, all the food, all the booze, and we put on a huge gala event for them. And, you know, it’s surprising the number of CEOs that you see that go through this event and their WhatsApp picture after that is them at their, you know, their boxing thing. So, you know, that’s the only other thing that I’d say that’s really geared towards corporates. That’s the demographic there. So we bring people’s networks together through these events, and they’re an incredible spectacle. So we’ll do those in Oz next year. We’ve got two in Dubai, one in Singapore this year, but we’ll launch those in Australia as well. And. Oh, good. 2025

Gene Tunny  45:00

I expect they’ll be, they’ll be popular. It’s like Fight Club, but classier. So I think it’ll

Russell Harrison  45:06

be, you hit the nail right on the head Fight Club, but classier. Very

Gene Tunny  45:10

good. Okay. Ross Harrison from Spartans Boxing Clubs, this has been terrific. I’ve really enjoyed the conversation. So all the best with it, and I’ll I’ll keep informed about what you’re up to, and yeah, hope to chat with you again someday. So thanks again.

Russell Harrison  45:28

Thanks gene, thanks for your time. Bye.

Credits

Thanks to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms.

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Podcast episode

From Academia to Impact: Transforming Workplaces w/ Achyuta Adhvaryu, Good Business Lab – EP251

This episode delves into the work of Good Business Lab (GBL), co-founded by Professor Achyuta Adhvaryu. GBL focuses on innovative workplace interventions to improve worker well-being and firm productivity, and it typically evaluates these interventions using Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs). Show host Gene Tunny and Ach discuss the effectiveness of soft skills training programs and the importance of worker voice in creating a more engaged and productive workforce. They discuss methodological issues regarding RCTs and whether the Hawthorne effect is a concern. Ach is Tata Chancellor’s Professor of Economics and Director of the 21st Century India Center at UC San Diego.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please email us at contact@economicsexplored.com  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Apple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: Professor Achyuta Adhvaryu

Achyuta Adhvaryu is the Tata Chancellor’s Professor of Economics at the School of Global Policy and Strategy and is the inaugural director of the 21st Century India Center at UC San Diego. Adhvaryu’s research interests are in development economics, organizational economics and health economics, and his experience in organizational development make him well-suited to lead our new center. Prior to this role, Adhvaryu was a professor at the University of Michigan and an assistant professor at the Yale School of Public Health.

https://gps.ucsd.edu/faculty-directory/achyuta-adhvaryu.html

What’s covered in EP251

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • Achyuta’s Early Career and Research in East Africa (1:53)
  • Historical Examples of Private Sector Impact (17:03)
  • Good Business Lab’s Approach and Findings (21:45)
  • Methodology and Measurement of Impact (37:56)
  • Hawthorne Effect and Replication of Findings (43:33)
  • Economic Development and Convergence (49:44)

Takeaways

  1. Soft skills training can significantly improve productivity, even in blue-collar settings.
  2. Worker voice, when effectively harnessed, can reduce turnover and absenteeism while boosting productivity.
  3. Good Business Lab demonstrates the practical value of academic research when applied to real-world business challenges.
  4. A growing body of evidence supports the integration of worker wellbeing initiatives into business strategies globally.

Links relevant to the conversation

Good Business Lab:

https://goodbusinesslab.org/

UC San Diego 21st Century India Center that Ach directs:

https://india.ucsd.edu

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Transcript: From Academia to Impact: Transforming Workplaces w/ Achyuta Adhvaryu, Good Business Lab – EP251

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Achyuta Adhvaryu  00:03

You know, Morton Salt did this purely through competitive forces. They wanted to stay in business again. They said, Hey, we better get on board with this thing. And it turns out, you know, they were able to solve a huge public health issue.

Gene Tunny  00:22

Welcome, to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host, Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode. Please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello and welcome to the show. This episode features a conversation with Professor Arch advaio from University of California San Diego arch is the co founder of good business lab, a non profit dedicated to improving worker welfare and firm productivity through innovative interventions. According to the lab’s website, worker well being is good business. We believe that building the business case to support better conditions for workers is the most sustainable way to transform labor markets and enable everyone to reach their economic potential and live a dignified life. Hutch shares his fascinating journey from his early work in East Africa studying healthcare delivery to his current focus on leveraging the private sector to drive positive change. He discusses the lab’s groundbreaking findings, such as the significant productivity gains from soft skills training for garment workers and the importance of empowering workers through improving worker voice, the ability of workers to communicate issues and concerns to management. This conversation offers valuable insights at an intersection of academic research, business practices and economic development. Join us as we explore how arch and his team are bridging the gap between theory and practice to create meaningful impact. One of the highlights for me in this conversation was how arch explained how his interest in economic development was stimulated by his work in East Africa, and that came about because he followed his girlfriend, who later became his wife, to the region. It’s a story that appeals to the romantic in all of us. Thanks to Lumo coffee for sponsoring this episode. This grade one organic specialty coffee from the highlands of Peru is jam packed full of healthy antioxidants. There’s a 10% discount for economics explored listeners. Details are in the show notes, as always, I’d be interested in your thoughts on this episode or others, and any ideas you have for future guests or how I can improve the show. My contact details are in the show notes. Okay, without further ado, let’s dive into the episode. I hope you enjoy it. Arch Welcome to the program.

Achyuta Adhvaryu  03:00

Nice to be here. Thanks for having me on

Gene Tunny  03:03

terrific I’m keen to learn about all the good work that you’re doing with good business lab. Before that, I’m interested in what’s your story in terms of getting to setting up the good business lab with your with your co founders, you did a PhD in Economics from Yale. Could you tell us a bit about what you studied and what led you to this work you’re doing with the good business lab, please?

Achyuta Adhvaryu  03:32

Yeah, sure, that’d be great. So I’m an economist. You know, I have never had a real job in my life. I think been, you know, college student, I went straight to grad school. They went straight to faculty jobs and and, you know, part of that pathway has always been, you know, yearning on my end to not only have impact in the academic sphere and generating knowledge and, you know, producing things that are consumed by the academic, you know, world, but also, kind of having some of my work influence policy making, influence or decisions on the ground and influence people’s lives. That was always the goal, getting into the PhD. And I realized pretty early on, when I was in graduate school and as a junior faculty as an economist, that while we often research things that are, you know, very adjacent to the real world, the sort of esoteric nature of academia and the kind of, you know, way that the knowledge production industry is structured, we’re almost encouraged not to be, you know, get our hands too dirty in the real world. Yeah. So I’ve had. You know, mentors and professors tell me, you know, don’t bother with all this policy stuff. You know, I think if your stuff gets picked up by the policy making world, that’s great, but if not, you know, that’s not what you’re here to do. We’re very strictly sort of trying to push out the knowledge frontier. And I sort of didn’t agree with that notion. And I think actually, I’m, you know, I’m not the only one who felt this way. And one kind of academic generation before me, you know, folks like Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee and Michael Kramer and several others were were kind of forging this path of having one foot in academia and doing really rigorous work that’s informed by the kind of cutting edge, you know, of academic work, but also having a foot in the policy world and dedicating a lot of time and resources towards advancing, you know, policy goals. And in this case, I came to economics with a with a deep desire to impact the lives of of low income populations around the world, much like I think Esther and Abhijit and others. And I think that that journey began actually in East Africa, and a lot of my early work was around healthcare delivery to poor populations. Like, how do you sort of make that more efficient and more universally accessible, especially in kind of remote rural areas where there’s not very much healthcare access. So I was working in that space in Tanzania and Kenya and Uganda and a few other places for the first part of my career. But I think I always acknowledged that at the core of a lot of the stuff that we do as economists, there is a private sector role. So it’s not just about government delivery of policy, of policy, you know, and resources to the poor, while that is a big part of, you know, the safety net and always will be, I felt that there was an under emphasis on understanding the role of the private sector. How could the private sector be involved in delivering, you know, welfare enhancing interventions to poor populations and make their lives better. There are some great examples historically of how this has, you know, been possible, but there wasn’t kind of a clear business rationale for a lot of this, and, you know, lots of things I saw early on in the healthcare space around, you know, trying to distribute medicines to rural, remote populations through these agents who were then kind of paid, you know, and so that you might consider that a private sector framework, a lot of that kind of fell short of what I was really hoping for in academia and in the policy world, which was, can you actually generate a business case for intervening amongst poor populations? And I think that the sort of easiest way you might be able to do that is within large firms that are very labor intensive. So, you know, take your average, you know, manufacturing sector, firm, big place, employees, 1000s of people, all working back jobs, most of them being, you know, low income individuals. Maybe there’s a vested interest there for that business to take care of its workers, and maybe that can actually generate, you know, improvements in their lives that are compatible with the business, uh, functioning as well. So that’s the sort of hypothesis that I felt was under explored, both in academia and kind of in the real world, where you’re seeing more and more sort of conflict between, you know, workers and management and kind of dividing up this fixed pie, or fighting over wages, fighting over benefits and training and all that kind of stuff. You’re seeing strikes all over the world related to this that we’re sort of missing the thread a little bit on maybe there’s an area of common ground where we can all function, and what does that area look like? What are the kinds of interventions that might work? What are the kinds of interventions that have gained traction but don’t actually work? And those are the kinds of questions that I sort of becoming interested in from an academic perspective. And then to your question about good business lab, we realized very quickly, my co founders and I, who started working in this space, in a large garment firm in India, that just publishing academic work was. Just not going to do it. It wasn’t enough to actually move the needle and change the minds and the actions of decision makers who could actually generate impact. So, you know, in addition, the fact that nobody, nobody reads the work that we do, it makes up for a sort of select, you know, group of academic elite, or something like that. It’s also the case that it’s often hard to translate what we’re doing in academia and the questions we’re asking into real world, practical knowledge that can be applied, that can be used to change a policy in a firm, etc. So that’s why we set up Good Business Lab, along with another huja. And we thought, hey, you know, we’re generating some interesting insights here, but they’re going to sort of echo in the in the ether, so to speak, if we don’t really kind of devote serious resources and time and attention towards actually generating some change in people’s thinking. And so that’s sort of how we came up with the concept for the for the NGO, and it’s just grown from

Gene Tunny  11:12

there, right? Okay, geez, a lot to talk about there arch That’s fascinating. A few things I’d like to follow up on, so you ended up working in East Africa. Was that part of a research project? Was that, after you did your PhD, how did you, how did you end up in East Africa?

Achyuta Adhvaryu  11:30

Yeah, that was actually during my PhD, after, after my first year in the it was, to be honest, a little random, I knew I wanted to work in the sort of development economic space, basically the areas of poverty alleviation. I was interested. I was drawn to health care access. And I was, I was dating my wife at the time, who was just starting out, or she was doing her senior thesis in college, and she was going to do it in Tanzania. And I said, Hey, I like this girl. I’m gonna go Tanzania too. So I started blindly emailing my professors and saying, hey, I want to go to Tanzania and look at something related to health and development. What do you think? And I, you know, was fortunate enough, through a chain of emails to be connected to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention The CDC mission in Tanzania. And the head of that mission was a extremely nice man who kind of said, Hey, sure, why don’t you come over and help us with the survey we’re doing, and you know, we’ll see where it goes from there. So I said, Great, this sounds like a wonderful summer, and I get to be, you know, with this girl that I was, you know, head over heels for. So I was excited to do it. That’s the really kind of serendipitous start to the My Work in East Africa. But, you know, I grew to love it. And I think there’s, of course, so many really interesting and meaningful questions to tackle in that space around health and development, I worked in the delivery of a new malaria therapy, because malaria is obviously a huge problem in parts of Sub Saharan Africa, you know, one of the leading killers of kids Around the world. And you know, it’s entirely treatable with therapies that you know you just have to get access to them. So it’s one of these problems of last mile delivery that are both incredibly important, literally life and death questions, and also really interesting from the kind of program delivery and academic perspective of, how do you kind of ensure that all potential beneficiaries receive access? Yeah,

Gene Tunny  13:49

and what did you conclude in that project into because you mentioned before that there are issues with efficiency and accessibility. How did That’s right, yeah, What? What? What type of findings did you end up making?

Achyuta Adhvaryu  14:01

I think there are two broad learnings, one of which was kind of specific to the work that I was doing. And I was around how people learned about new therapy and choose to try it out. Because, you know, the easiest thing to do is kind of default to what you already know. And so if your kid is sick, you say, Okay, I’m gonna go to the drugstore and pick up Chloroquine, or, you know, one of these therapies that has existed for 50 years, but it’s not very anymore. But then you gotta, you know, in the case where that doesn’t work, you might take a gamble and say, hey, the, you know, government clinics got this new artemisinin based combination therapy. Why don’t I give this a shot and see how this works for my child? But kind of taking that leap of faith is costly, because government clinics are very far away from these remote, rural populations. So you know, this meant probably losing out on a couple days of work. And, you know. Walking all the way to the clinic and all that kind of stuff. So my research really was about sort of how people learn, as they kind of experiment with these new therapies, how you might learn about the effectiveness of new therapy, and in a environment where misdiagnosis of malaria was extremely prevalent. So you know, often you just say, I think you have a fever, you should go have some malaria medication. But, you know, half the time it’s not malaria. And so, you know, if you actually had good diagnosis, then you’d get much more effective adoption of treatment, which is the kind of, kind of 10,000 foot takeaway from my dissertation work. But the other thing it taught me was, again, the role that the private sector plays, inevitably, because in all of these villages, there was at least one, what they called Duka, which is like a little shop that sold medicines and is usually staffed by someone who, literally, you know, has no medical experience, no training, etc. It’s just a person who, you know, could get their hands on some meds. And maybe, you know, in a lucky case, it was a, it was a nurse or something, but usually it was somebody who just, you know, my uncle, you know, can get me these medicines. And so I’m going to sell them in the village. And they have no idea about how to diagnose kids with these kind of life threatening diseases, etc, so, you know, but they’re nevertheless that that’s the sort of like first line of defense against malaria and other important diseases, right? Because everybody’s using these guys. So how do you guys started thinking, you know, we can’t just focus on the government clinics, because those are useful, but they’re really far away. Nobody from until they’re really forced to. We really should be focusing a lot on, how do we strengthen the capacity of these guys, who are these shopkeepers and owners? Maybe make them a little bit more in tune with what works and what does and what are the newest therapies, maybe connect them to supply chains, et cetera. So that’s when the wheels started turning. The private sector being an important

Gene Tunny  17:04

player, right? Okay, okay, that’s, that’s all fascinating. And you mentioned, historically, there have been some good examples of private sector doing, you know, positive things for I’m trying to remember what, what exactly you you were saying, but I guess you, I imagine, are you talking about things, organizations like friendly societies. What type of organizations are you? Do you have in mind? Well, you

Achyuta Adhvaryu  17:28

can just, sometimes the the private sector, just doing its thing, just, you know, out there to make a profit, still, kind of tax society. So one great example that I love giving. I’ve done some work on this in an academic paper, is the story of Morton salts, the, you know, big salt company in the US. And, you know, I’m sure you’ve seen that you can, when you go to the grocery store, you can buy salt that’s iodized, which has iodine added and salt as and, you know, we’re all instructed to to buy the iodized kind because it, you know, prevents goiter and, you know, cognitive deficiency. It’s particularly valuable as micronutrient for pregnant moms, etc. So iodine is kind of a really critical to, you know, all kinds of cognitive and brain development. Turns out that most countries in the world, including the US, before the 1920s had just rampant iodine deficiency disorder and depended on where you were. So if you’re near the coast and or, you know, these iodine kind of reserves around the country, then you were okay, because a lot of the sort of plants you ate and the meat that you ate had iodine in there. But if you didn’t, for example, you didn’t eat fish, which is a great source of iodine, or you lived inland or lived in a mountainous region, Switzerland was particularly bad with iodine deficiency then, then you were just not getting enough. And so this actually prompted the government to work with, you know, a bunch of physicians and researchers who had kind of discovered this link between iodine deficiency and cognitive disorder to try to figure out, how are we going to get iodine into the population? And they concluded that one easy way was to add it to salt. It was a very simple process that you could fortify the salt with iodine. And Morton Salt was the largest salt distributor in the country at that time. And you know, the the there’s a doctor at the University of Michigan who actually convinced some local producers in Michigan to say, hey, you know, you guys have a big problem with iodine deficiency. I think it might be a competitive edge for you if you’re competing with this big name Wharton salt, if you just, you know, put iodine in your salt, and you kind of advertise the benefits of that. And. They ended up, you know, being convinced. And they went ahead and did that. And so Morton Salt had to compete with this, you know, new newfangled salt that had iodine. And so they said, Well, you know what, instead of just changing what we’re doing in Michigan, why don’t we offer I iodized salt across the country, and we’ll make it exactly the same price. It was 10 cents at the time for a canister of salt. So we, they said, you know, we’ll have the regular canister and we’ll have the iodine fortified canister, and we’ll, you know, they’re going to be on the shelf, and they’re both going to be 10 cents, and people can do what they want. And of course, it turned out, you know, through good, good messaging and marketing, they made people aware that this was actually a problem, and people chose to go with the iodized salt. It’s so cheap to fortify iodized salt that this sort of really made Morton Salt corner the market, and within a matter of basically 10 years, 15 years, iodine deficiency disorder was erased in the US, except for very remote communities. So that was just like a really wonderful story. You know, Morton Salt did this purely through competitive forces. They wanted to stay in business again. They said, Hey, we better get on board with this thing. And it turns out, you know, they were able to solve a huge public health issue that had massive implications for cognitive ability, and, you know, rates of goiter medical condition in the US.

Gene Tunny  21:29

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  21:35

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Gene Tunny  22:04

Now. Back to the show, arch. Can I ask about now Good Business Lab, so we’re up to, would be good to talk about that? So you mentioned you were studying development economics, and there was a view among some academics, or don’t get your hands dirty, but you saw that there are a lot of good insights from development economics that could be applied in the real world or some of the research that was occurring. You mentioned colleagues of yours, the flow and and Banerjee, is it? Yep, and you’ve got your your good business lab, you’ve set up this NGO or this nonprofit, and you’re looking at your, you mentioned, large firms, labor intensive, and potentially, there’s some interventions that can be undertaken to to get better outcomes. Can you tell us about some of the the work you’ve been doing with good business lab and how you’re trying to get those better outcomes in business, please.

Achyuta Adhvaryu  23:03

Yeah, sure. So that’s, you know, it’s a, it’s a big blank slate when we started out in terms of what might work, right? So I think there’s lots out there that people, you know, with reasonable amount of common sense might think, okay, if your workers are really poor and unhealthy, for example, then improving their health a little bit in the workplace might actually generate some, some gains, you know, for them, and also kind of be useful for the firm. They might they might be more productive at that work. They might be able to do more. They might be absent less. They might stick around longer. Same thing with skills, you know, it’s another big bucket. Lots of firms provide skills to workers, and the idea is that, you know, well, if you, if you make the worker more productive by providing the skills on the job, then they might generate more productivity for you, and also kind of stick around longer, etc, but a lot of these theories were kind of untested, right? So there was a lot of kind of going with your gut here in terms of what firms were doing and also what academics were advocating for, right? And the NGO sector was advocating for so we came into the space and said, Look, some of these things may actually work, and they might actually be great. Some of them may not, and might actually generate, you know, either nothing for workers or may not actually feed back into any kind of productivity or profit for the firm, in which case, let’s not spend resources on that stuff. So can we actually generate a menu of things that firms can look at and say, I want to invest in my workers in a way that benefits them, and also then in some way? Comes back to me some and affects my bottom line that we can generate. What does it look like? What are the types of interventions? So we went in on on some of the most obvious ones first. So the first kind of set of studies we did were around skilling inside the firm, and in particular, we focused on soft skills, which is actually, you know, a little counterintuitive for most people, when you’re thinking about a blue collar workforce, right? Like imagine a factory worker on a production line. What good is, you know, leadership and communication and teamwork skills and conscientiousness and all this kind of stuff that you usually think about when you are thinking about soft skills. What good is it for that worker? Right? We usually think that those are skills that white collar workers might use, that you know, a good CEO should have, etc. Turns out that, according to our research, those skills actually end up being incredibly important, even for frontline workers. And start, you know, digging a little past the surface, you sort of start to understand why. It’s because the production line is really just a large team, right? And you’ve got 50 other team members on that line, or 70 other team members. You’ve got a boss you’re communicating with. There’s lots of stuff that you need to do on that line that has nothing to do with the technical skills, like, you know, putting a car part on a car, or, you know, stitching together the sleeves of a T shirt or whatever, right? All this stuff that you know you’re doing on the on the factory floor is also related to how you know, skilled you are at communicating with your team members, right? So, if there’s a, if there’s a, you know, a block in, in the line that’s kind of slowing you down. You have to look back and say, Hey, can I help what’s the problem? How do we, you know, how do we speed things up? If there’s, you know, a problem with your machine, you have to raise your hand and talk to your boss and say, Hey, there’s, there’s something that’s stuck here. I need some help fixing this. If I’m not feeling well, I might need to raise my hand and say I need some help today. Or if I have a friend who’s not feeling well, I might tell my boss, maybe we should help out. You know my friend over there, because, you know, Gene’s not feeling well today, and he’s he’s likely to be unproductive. All of those things are soft skills. And you know that seems easy enough to do, you know if, if you went to good schools, had a good education, you know, grew up in a good community that sort of fostered those kinds of communication and teamwork and leadership skills and patience, etc, then those things are sort of ingrained in you already, but for people from low income backgrounds, that’s often not the case, right? That you know, they went to a school that didn’t teach any of that they might have. You know, not grown up in a family that encourages people to speak up and say what they’re feeling. So you know, for a variety of reasons, they’re coming into the workplace with low levels of these skills, and so just improving those fundamental skills and connecting them to the kinds of activities that that workers do in the workplace generates both kind of increases in the skills that those people have, but also feeds back into productivity. So in one program we evaluated, which is called the PACE program, which is essentially the flagship CSR corporate sustainability program for gap, the clothing company, which was kind of trying to, you know, proliferate across its supplier network all across the world, that program, which is a soft skills training program for female garment workers, generated an 18% improvement in productivity and a net rate of return because of that huge increase In productivity of about 250% after 18 months. So it was a huge, huge, you know, hugely beneficial program, both to workers who really, really thrived after taking the program and to management, because productivity went up substantially. So that was our first kind of foray into the soft skills space, and since then, we’ve run several other trials that have basically confirmed the importance of soft skills in the workplace. So we did this at a higher up level, which I can talk about more if you’d like, but that was a managerial training program we evaluated, which we developed ourselves based. On firsthand, on managers in these garment firms that we’re working in, and that also generated six or 7% increases in productivity. And given that it wasn’t very expensive, a program to implement, the rate of return was was astronomical. So the program, you know, returns about 50 or 60x in the two year period. Kind of following programs implementation to the firm, which is kind of about as good a rate of return as you’ll ever get on any intervention. So I think, through a variety of work, you know, I’m convinced, in general, that soft skills at all levels are incredibly important for workers. The other kind of bin that we’ve been working for quite some time in is around worker voice. And so this is the basic idea workers when they don’t feel heard, when they feel like I have a grievance or a concern, and I keep telling my boss about it, but he’s not listening. He’s not changing anything. Or I can’t even speak up to tell my boss about it because I’m fearing repercussions, etc. They feel disempowered, and at the best, you know, they’ll quit and, you know, move on to another firm. But at worst, you know, we see some of the worst examples of this playing out in the strikes and protests sometimes that turn violent all over the world, where workers don’t feel heard enough, and that feeling kind of just boils over and results in a lot of strife. So we kind of have been interested in this space for a long time, especially in environments where you know the union for workers is really supposed to be the megaphone, right for concern, for airing out your grievances for negotiating, you know, with with management on important things like wages and benefits. But in a lot of parts of the world, unions either don’t exist or are extremely weak. You know, they have very low membership for a variety of reasons. You know regulation, you know the court cases against them, you know the sabotage on the part of firms. You know there’s, there’s lots of, lots of, you know, bad stories about this, but basically in a lot of places, you know, you rarely see workers as part of a union. This is true in India, where I work a lot. So, you know, we started thinking about it. You know, in short of that kind of best case scenario of having a union rep that can really advocate for you. How do you kind of air out grievances in a way that kind of results in something changing about your situation. And so we did a series of trials, basically to enhance worker voice through technology. And you know, this could be as simple as just asking you how you’re feeling through a satisfaction survey, or, you know, custom a worker pulse sort of check, or it could be sort of more involved, or, you know, use more technology. For example, there are a lot of apps out there now that that help workers, you know, anonymously convey their messages to HR. So we basically tested all the above, and through a series of trials, we concluded that worker voice is incredibly important. It actually generates a lot of turnover amongst workers when you don’t have appropriate voice for your concerns, and when you provide technology or an intervention that enables people to air out their concerns, if they have them, they leave at lesser rates. They’re less likely to be absent. And in the best case scenarios, especially when you get HR really into it and incentivized to do a good job with these complaints, you can actually increase productivity as well. So you know that work has kind of taught me broadly that worker voices matters a lot, and simple interventions that encourage the voice of workers and encourage HR to respond appropriately in a timely manner can make a big difference for workers and also for the bottom line. Rod,

Gene Tunny  34:55

okay, that’s fascinating. I’ve got a couple of few follow up questions. It’s first on that worker voice one. So is it the fact that you mentioned there’s improved productivity? Is it? Do you know what the mechanism is? Is it the fact that HR resolves whatever dispute there was, or is it just the fact that the worker feels better, they’re less likely to slack off, or that, or they’ll work a lot harder, like, because you’ve got some choice into the level of work effort you put in any job, okay,

Achyuta Adhvaryu  35:28

yeah, yeah. So I think it’s a combination of those. So, you know, part of, part of the, the mechanism here is that I’m kind of more likely to reciprocate, you know, the effort that I’m you know, in terms of the sort of effort that I perceive is given to me, right? So, yeah, if I’m over here being like, Hey guys, my supervisor is, like, really yelling at me. He’s not behaving nicely. It’s not that I’ve done anything wrong, and he treats me really badly every day when I come to work and I keep telling HR this, and they don’t do anything. Ultimately, I’m, you know, kind of convinced, like nobody’s paying attention, or if they are, they just don’t care. And that’s potentially going to make me also do the same thing, like, Hey, I’m not going to, you know, put out for like, a, you know, somebody who doesn’t care, care about me, and I’m not going to sort of break my back over, over, you know, creating, you know, more production for these folks who are just not, you know, listening. And I think that that’s what generates absenteeism and turnover and that kind of feeling of not being valued. But there’s also kind of a instrumental feature of voice that I think resembles the Kaizen system, if you’ve heard of that in Toyota, sort of famous management system that Toyota uses to be so efficient in their workplaces. That’s something that you that’s a central tenet of the Kaizen system, is constant feedback and revision of processes. So there’s a constant, you know, we have an open channel from workers to say, do you guys are the ones on the ground. Sometimes we’re not gonna be able to see what the problems are and how they arise and all that. You know, you have a new model of a car in there, you’re gonna have to figure out, you know, how to attach all the parts together. And sometimes they don’t go together exactly how they should, and we have to modify things. The workers are the ones who are gonna be kind of coming up with those ideas first, and if they feed those up, you know, to management, then you can kind of change that process and become more efficient. So having that open channel, in addition to sort of just, you know, allowing workers to air out their grievances and have them be addressed, is also a method of communication within the hierarchy that allows workers to suggest things that might be beneficial or useful, and for those things to then filter up and change processes change the way that production is

Gene Tunny  38:09

done. Yeah. Okay, I’d like to ask about the you mentioned gap clothing company before the female garment workers that had a 18% improvement in productivity. PACE program, right? Yeah, PACE program, right. How do you measure this? How do you set up the like, how do you set up the study? Is it a randomized control trial? Or can you tell us a bit about the methodology please?

Achyuta Adhvaryu  38:35

Yeah, sure. So. I mean, when possible, we use the sort of gold standard for impact measurement, which is a randomized control trial. And, you know, we’re used to this in the post covid world, where we all hearing about the trials that were done on the various covid vaccines and all that, but they’re, you know, it’s pretty simple in the sort of medical setting you usually have, you know, a treatment group that’s randomly selected from a population. And given the, you know, the treatment, or the vaccine or whatever it is, we’re trying to test the impact up, and then we test that against the control group who’s randomly selected and receives the placebo. You know, in most medical cases, or, you know, something similar, that that that might generate placebo effects, but doesn’t actually like convey the the medication or the or the or the vaccine. So same thing happens when you do trials in social science research. You essentially have, you know, a treatment group who gets an intervention and a randomly chosen control group who doesn’t. And depending on the type of intervention it is, you know, you might get a placebo or not have placebo. You might have a blinded trial or not. It also depends on the setting. In our settings, you know. Being these kind of large workplace environments, we often use a method of randomization that essentially amounts to a lottery, because we’re introducing these new programs, these new benefits, and we want to test their effects. And so we often kind of say, hey, we come into these factory settings, and say we’re trying, trying this new program out. If it works, then, you know, there’s a possibility that everybody will get it. But right now, there’s not enough resources to give this, you know, intervention to everybody, so we’re going to try it out on a subset of the folks who are interested. And just to be fair, we’re going to do this totally randomly through a lottery, and so we have everybody sign up to see if they’re interested. When the people that sign up, we run a lottery, and we pick out people will be part of the treatment group, and the, you know, remainder will serve as part of the control. So that’s the sort of basic methodology we use. And it ends up, you know, being quite palatable in a lot of workplace environments, because think a lot of people buy into the idea that there’s something fair about random allocation, right, that, you know, there’s nothing that’s making, you know, you more likely to get it than I am, and that sort of thing. We’re just, there’s a limited resource, and we’re, you know, allocating it in the sort of most fair way possible that allows us to really measure impacts by controlling by tracking the outcomes of the treatment and the control groups over time, and we can figure out what sorts of impacts the program had on workplace, things like productivity and retention and things like that, as as well as you know, survey outcomes like you know or or outcomes that are relevant to workers, like their health or, you know, mental well being or satisfaction. So that’s the sort of methodology that we use. And, you know, in terms of in terms of measurement of productivity, that I think, is actually a really critical innovation that that I’m proud to say we spend a lot of time on, because we work, we tend to specifically, kind of like, focus on industries where we have labor intensive, you know, production, but, but also we can, in Some way, measure productivity really well, you know? So that sometimes is pretty easy because the firm’s already measuring it like, you know, we work a lot with the retail industry, and there’s really good measures of the items that come through a cash register. So know who’s standing at that cash register, right? Who’s working there, you can track their productivity really, really well. And sometimes it’s a little harder, like, you know, when you’re working on a production line, often the firm doesn’t really care what each particular worker is doing. They just care what the whole line is doing, right? How many T shirts came off this line? How many cars came off this line today, that sort of thing. So there is a little harder and we have to go in and do our own measurements. So we’ve installed all kinds of fancy devices to do that, including tablets and push buttons and, you know, RFIDs on and tags and all kinds of stuff. But we, you know, you know, with the end goal being, what firms really care about is productivity. So if we’re measuring productivity, we’re missing out on a big part of the story. And so that’s what we’ve devoted a lot of, you know, blood, sweat and tears to in our research. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  43:33

okay, that’s it all. Sounds great. Just wondering. Have you given any thought to this? There’s this concept of the Hawthorne effect, that people change their behavior in response to being monitored or taking part in that in a program, and that’s why, you know, it’s good to have some sort of, you know, might be good to have some sort of placebo involved, but in social science research that could be very difficult to do, how do you think about the Hawthorne effect, and how Does it affect your interpretation of your results? Is it something you’re concerned about at all?

Achyuta Adhvaryu  44:04

Yeah, that’s a great question, and we’re definitely concerned about it in most of the trials we do, and something that our academic reviewers are often concerned about when we when we are publishing the work and having it reviewed in academic journal. Because, actually, it turns out, you know, that the Hawthorne effect itself was in a factory, I think, in Hawthorne, Ohio, or something like that, right? Like it was, it was a, is a factory, you know, here in the US, where those original trials were done, and it was actually related to, like, light on the factory floors and things like that, but, but, you know, it’s a very important concept, and I think the you know, short answer is, for some outcomes, you can actually, you. You know, test for Hawthorne effects in a reasonable way. So, for example, if you’ve got a treatment group and a control group, and you know, they’re selected into this experiment, and we, you know, we ran this sign up first, and then we ran a lottery, and we are surveying everybody, you might think that even the control group is kind of changing their behavior, right? Because they’re being monitored, they’re being asked questions, etc. But we usually have that’s usually a sort of a minority of the participants of the workers in any particular factory that we’re working in, right? So doing a trial, it might be several 100 workers in the trial, not the like three or 4000 that are in the factory. So there’s lots of other workers in the factory who we are also passively seeing the outcomes for for certain things like retention, absenteeism, productivity, you know, salary, all these kind of kind of workplace stuff. And so, you know, we can actually look at them and compare them to the treatment group and the control group. To see, are our treatment control groups looking very, very different once, once we start the experiment, start measuring them. The answer, you know, across most of our trials for those kinds of set of outcomes is no, there’s, there’s really no difference in how, in the behavior of, you know, people who are not in the trial versus people who are in the trial, but in the control group or treatment group. So you know, so I think that on those outcomes, sorry, the control group, the treatment group, we hopefully see an effect over time. So those kinds of outcomes, we don’t see big evidence of Hawthorne effects, certain outcomes we can’t really test. Like, for example, if we, if we surveyed everybody in the treatment group and control group, then that might change their behavior. But we’re not surveying people outside of the two groups. So, you know, can’t really tell whether, whether that’s going to sort of like, affect things. Then sometimes there are these, like questions that you you know, survey methodology, questions that that that sort of reveal that some people, some respondents, are actually more likely to be swayed by being observed. And if you can measure that then you can look for whether the treatment effects were bigger or smaller in that group. And so, so we do that sometimes too.

Gene Tunny  47:29

Oh, good. Okay, I have to look at some of your your your papers. That sounds yeah, there’s all of these, all of these tricky methodological issues. I’m sure you’d have clever reviewers, peer reviewers, asking about a couple more questions just before we wrap up. Because this is fascinating. Oh, actually, might be three more questions. What’s the level of replication of these type of findings? Do you see other researchers replicating findings like this? Yeah,

Achyuta Adhvaryu  47:57

yeah, absolutely. So for some of the work that we’ve done, you know, the two examples I’ve mentioned, there’s been really great work that’s come out of the World Bank that followed up on our study and tried to, you know, Institute similar programs around soft skills in, for example, in factories in East Africa, because East Africa has these big manufacturing hubs as well. And similarly, actually, there’s been some work kind of in parallel to ours that looked at soft skills interventions in I believe it was German firms, German retail firms, if I’m not mistaken, and they’re also working with frontline workers. They also found, you know, pretty substantial impacts of soft skills training. There’s another really interesting trial in Togo that a bunch of World Bank researchers did on something called personal initiative training, which essentially involves a lot of soft skills. Then this was for sort of micro enterprise owners. So basically, people who are, like, selling, you know, stuff on in their carts or on the street, or, you know, in these very, very small businesses, I just usually have, you know, the owners, the the only employee, and there too, this kind of soft skills training resulted in huge gains in profit for those micro enterprises. In fact, that trial ran a horse race between soft skills training and the World Bank’s flagship business training program, and that then and beat the pants off the business training program. So that was really interesting trial, too. So in general, I think soft skills, we have really seen a huge growth in in trials and evidence on this that really complements the stuff, most of which was in the US, you know, like Jim Heckman and folks have been thinking about this for a long time in the US. Labor. Market, but hadn’t, kind of made it outside of the US. And then same thing for worker voice, tons of research has emerged right around the same time that we’ve been writing ours trials as well as kind of observational stuff in very varied contexts. There’s a great trial in Chinese auto firms that that looks at improving worker voice and finds big impacts on productivity and retention there. And then there’s a, there’s a great study on improvements in worker voice from kind of white collar firms in Denmark, and that also finds it back. So, you know, I would say in some Scandinavian country, I can’t remember, but, you know, you find very kind of ubiquitous impacts of voice as well. So some of these things I find, you know, it’s nice to see that sometimes, you know, if you do one trial, that’s sort of like it gives you sort of one data point. But then, you know, is that echoed around the world. And can you really say something more general about this? And I think that’s at least in these two domains, we’re seeing very similar findings emerging all around the world.

Gene Tunny  51:13

Yeah, I think I’ve seen that study. Yeah, maybe I can’t remember the country. It may have been Denmark, but yeah, I’m pretty sure I talked about that on a previous podcast episode to dig that out that that’s good. Yeah, yeah. So that’s that’s great. And the final question is, how do you see this as part of the whole convergence, or whole economic development catch up story? Is this a big part of it? How does it compare with other other factors, you know, technological transfer, that sort of thing, how big a part of it is?

Achyuta Adhvaryu  51:50

It was to say two things on that front. I mean, first, I actually think that, you know, a lot of the things we do are, I think, relevant, not only for, you know, workers in low income country contexts, but also low income workers, or workers that are sort of resource poor in in even in high income context. So like, you know, your average and we’ve been starting this work across, across these various contexts, Good Business Lab has an office in Colombia that has been doing a lot of work with firms across Latin America and the Caribbean, and we’re finding exactly the same issues, even though it’s a very different context, generally higher income levels than India and South Asia and East Africa. So, you know, I think you see these issues cropping up with sort of frontline workforces all over the world in terms of convergence. It’s a great question, and I don’t have a numerical answer for you, but I think my intuition is that it does play, you know, a substantial role in some of these interventions kind of do play a substantial role in the kind of, at least, when you’re thinking about productivity differences that we see across countries. Because, you know, there’s some really great work that you know, Shay and kleenow and Chad Severson and other folks have done the macro setting, looking at productivity across countries and finding these astonishing numbers like, you know, the US is something like, you know, 10 times as productive as the worker in India, okay? And even if you control for the kinds of technology that people use, and the industry and a bunch of other things, that even that residual productivity difference is like 4x the average one in India is four times less productive than in the US. And that gap is even bigger if you look at Sub Saharan Africa. So you know, then the real, sort of motivating question behind a lot of my work is what the heck is going on there? That’s crazy, right? That that, you know, even if you take away all these kind of, you know, industry specific, technology specific, capital specific differences, you still get this really low productivity. And my answer to this has been to look at the kinds of inputs that workers are getting, and managerial and organizational inputs that the firm is getting. So on both those fronts, I think that there’s kind of a dearth of for example, like the average worker in the US is going to have slightly more soft skills at baseline than the average worker in India, just because the educational system, the average manager in the US is going to have more managerial skill in the than the average manager in India. So, you know, those kinds of differences, I think, do play a big role in that convergence. If you’ve seen the work by Nick bloom and John Van Reenen. Look a lot of cross country productivity differences, and can attribute a substantial portion of them, you know, I don’t want to quote a number without looking it up, but, you know, it’s a sizable fraction can be attributed to managerial quality differences. So, and I see that as a form of skill as well for workers. So I think, you know, without getting too specific, I do think that this has to play a role. And the more we can, kind of, I think our point is that, in our work, is that sometimes you can, you know, a lot of people think, Well, look, there’s a fixed pie here. The more we give to workers that’s going to make them better off, but it’s going to leave less profit for us, right? And I don’t think that’s necessarily the case. And we’re trying to find counter examples to that intuition such that that common ground can be large enough that firms can feel comfortable living in it.

Gene Tunny  55:57

Yeah, that’s terrific. It’s good work. I’ll put a link in the show notes to Good Business Lab. Is there anything else I should link to? Any anywhere else we can find what you’re up to?

Achyuta Adhvaryu  56:10

Oh sure. Well, if you if you just link to india.ucsd.edu, it’ll take you to the other hat that I wear is that I direct, the 21st century India Center at UC San Diego, which is kind of a policy center related to economics, political science and science and technology policy on India and US India relations. So, you know, we deal with a lot of the same ideas we’ve been kind of talking about in this podcast. But broader than that, there’s lots of fantastic faculty at UC San Diego. It’s really sort of a one of a kind place when it comes to, you know, economics in India. And you can find out much more at that website, but encourage folks to to go check it out, in addition to GBL work.

Gene Tunny  57:02

Oh, terrific. Okay, I’ll have to check that out. Might have to chat sometime in the future about that work. But actually, has been terrific. I really enjoyed this conversation. Yeah, I think it’s, it’s, it’s great that you’re, you’re seeing these positive results and from programs such as worker voice and the the also the soft skills, I think, yeah, that that makes sense intuitively to me. And yeah, I’ll, I’ll make sure that I keep up to date with with what you’re up to. And yeah,

Achyuta Adhvaryu  57:36

that sounds great. Yeah, I appreciate being on and, you know, I will say I was unable, probably did not do justice to the to the breadth of the menu that we’ve been able to create. So I would check out the GBL website if you’d like you know more information, or if you’re interested in getting, you know, involved in what we’re doing. So thanks a lot for highlighting that.

Gene Tunny  57:59

Yeah, no problem. And absolutely. I mean, that’s, yeah, that’s the that’s the challenge with this sort of thing. When you when you’re doing so much good work, how do we cover it in an hour? But yeah, we might have to. I’ll have another look at it, and might have to connect with you again in the future. All the best with the work, and hopefully I’ll connect with you again soon. Thank you. Cheers, righto. Thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored if you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact@economicsexplored.com or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you, then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

Obsidian  59:07

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode for more content like this, or to begin your own podcasting journey, head on over to obsidian-productions.com.

Credits

Thanks to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms.

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Podcast episode

RBA Deputy Governor’s ‘Beware False Prophets’ talk: Reactions w/ Michael Knox – EP250

Show host Gene Tunny and Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox explore the recent insights Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser shared on monetary policy at the 2024 Economic Society of Australia (QLD) business lunch. They examine the RBA’s data-driven approach to interest rates,  the equilibrium real interest rate concept, and the impacts of Quantitative Tightening (QT). Michael is one of Australia’s leading market economists and RBA watchers, and he led the Q&A session with the Deputy Governor at the lunch. 

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please email us at contact@economicsexplored.com  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Apple Podcast and Spotify.

What’s covered in EP250

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • RBA’s monetary policy decisions and the influence of high US debt on interest rates. (4:13)
  • The equilibrium real interest rate. (10:29)
  • Monetary policy, inflation, and interest rates. (14:16)
  • Central bank balance sheet unwind and its potential impact on interest rates. (21:42)
  • US budget deficits, bond yields, and quantitative tightening. (27:09)
  • Chinese RMB’s decline in international reserve currency status. (34:18)

Takeaways

  1. RBA’s Data-Driven Approach: The Reserve Bank of Australia relies on actual data more than forecasts when making interest rate decisions.
  2. Criticism of Overconfidence: RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser criticised the unwarranted confidence with which some commentators argue for monetary policy moves.
  3. Implications of Quantitative Tightening (QT): The recent period of quantitative easing has complicated the relationship between government budget deficits and bond yields. However, there are concerns that as QT continues and deficits remain high, this relationship could reassert itself and lead to higher long-term interest rates than otherwise.

Links relevant to the conversation

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s Beware False Prophets speech:

https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2024/sp-dg-2024-08-12.html

Chris Joye’s article ‘Arrogant RBA boss should stop trying to muffle opponents’:

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/arrogant-rba-boss-should-stop-trying-to-muffle-opponents-20240813-p5k25p

Kevin M Warsh: Financial market turmoil and the Federal Reserve – the plot thickens 

https://www.bis.org/review/r080415e.pdf

Transcript: RBA Deputy Governor’s ‘Beware False Prophets’ talk: Reactions w/ Michael Knox – EP250

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene, welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host, Gene, Tunny, I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode. Please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello and welcome to the show. This episode features a conversation that I had with Morgan’s chief economist, Michael Knox, it was about a recent event that the Economic Society of Australia, Queensland branch held with the Reserve Bank of Australia. Deputy Governor, Andrew Houser, it was a business lunch on the 12th of August 2024 in Brisbane. And given that I’m the current president of the Queensland branch of the society. I had to welcome everyone and Michael, he introduced the deputy governor and led the Q and A Michael had that role because Morgan’s sponsored the lunch. In his address, the deputy governor spoke about the challenges of setting monetary policy when there’s so much uncertainty, he suggested that some Australian commentators are overconfident in their assessments of what the central bank ought to do. We’ve had some commentators say the reserve bank hasn’t lifted interest rates enough, and we now have some commentators saying the reserve bank should be cutting interest rates because the economic outlook is so bad. Michael and I start off this episode talking about the deputy Governor’s speech, before we move on to a couple of meaty questions that Michael asked the deputy governor. These questions were about the equilibrium real interest rate and the effect of so called quantitative tightening. I get Michael’s reactions to the answers that the deputy governor gave him I should note that both Michael and I were impressed by the Deputy governor’s remarks, but the deputy governor has received some severe criticism in response to them. One of the strongest bits of criticism has come from well known financial economist and fund manager Chris joy. He’s written in the Australian Financial Review the following the newly appointed English Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Andrew Hauser, apparently has a proclivity for lecturing Aussies on the history of our penal colonies, arrogance, overconfidence, and the importance of Never daring to criticize our supercilious central bank. Okay, so it’s, it’s a speech that has that’s got everyone talking and I mean, as President of the Economic Society of Australia, Queensland on, I am, I’m happy that people are talking about it. People have taken notice of what the deputy governor has said. What do you think about what he said. I’ll be interested in in your thoughts on it. If you want to get in touch, please do so. My contact details are in the show notes. I’d love to hear from you about the deputy Governor’s speech or his responses to Michael’s questions, or any ideas you have on how I can improve the show. I’d love to hear from you. Okay, without further ado, let’s dive into the episode. I hope you enjoy it. Michael Knox, good to be catching up with you. Good to see you too. We had a great economic society of Australia Queensland Business lunch earlier this week with the RBA deputy governor, Andrew Hauser, and you did a great Q and A session with the deputy governor. So I thought what would be good is to just catch up on that, and you know your reactions to his responses, because at least one of them, I think, was not, probably not what you’re expecting, certainly wasn’t what I was expecting. So just interested in your your thoughts on that. But to start with, what did you think generally of the deputy governor’s talk about the wearing urging us to be what is it? Beware of false prophets?

Michael Knox  04:12

Well, when I got up, I asked I before I asked him the scheduled questions that he and I had talked about before the presentation, I said to him, so it’s really true that the RBA makes its decisions on monetary policy on an inter rated basis, one step at a time. At every meeting, they are looking at the data. They are looking at where employment is. They are looking at what the inflation data is saying, and they and they’re looking at all the other variables and then, and then they’re making the decision on the data a step at a time, yes, yeah. And he said, and he said, Yes. He said, does that mean? I. Don’t have to answer any of your other questions.

Gene Tunny  05:06

Yes, I think that was actually something that the Kook, Steven kookis reacted to on Twitter, like when he heard the speech, his initial like he I think he liked the speech, but his reaction to it was, look, the RBA is confirming that they’re only going to move on hard data. They’re not going to move on, you know, people in the business community saying things are tough and you should cut rates now. They’re not going to move on forecasts from market economists as to what’s going to happen. They’re going to be solely focused on hard data, at least that’s what he took out of it.

Michael Knox  05:37

Yeah. Well, I think that, though, what he talked to me about before, before we were when he went up, was the the influence, and not so much the influence. But I think the annoyance of people like Warren Hogan and other economists saying that the rate should, rate should go up, yeah, or another people saying that rates should go down, and they’re more having their own theory on it, yes. And whereas the he felt that they were looking pretty much at everything that they needed to look at and making the decision the right way. And I think the presentation was about how is about? Was about false positives. Yeah, yeah. People make decisions on a view of what the RBA does, which is their view of what the RBA is doing, but the RBA is actually operating in a different way. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  06:28

yeah. I think so too. I think that gave us a really great insight into how the RBA is thinking about the cash rate decision. I thought that was I thought it was really useful. Can I ask you about the questions that you asked the deputy governor. So the first one you asked about was regarding the equilibrium real federal funds rate. Wasn’t it you were asking, you’re talking about, well, Larry. Was it? Larry Summers had argued that because of the Highland Olivier Blanchard and Olivia Blanchard, right? So some pretty heavy hitters, right? Yeah, real heavy hitters. And you are. They’re arguing that the because of the high level of US debt, you mentioned, that sovereign, net sovereign debt for the United States is going to get to 100% of GDP, of their GDP. And what that means is that the equilibrium federal funds rate nominal is 4% which means, in real terms, it’s 2% have I got that? Right? That’s

Michael Knox  07:29

exactly right, right? That’s what they’ve said. And if you look at the Peterson Institute, they in fact, have five published research papers, not just from them, but for other people who’ve done for the Peterson Institute and and they done over time and their empirical research, and they actually come up with the number of each 1% increase in net G debt to GDP increases the the the equilibrium Fed funds rate by a little over four basis points. So you get Right exactly. You get 450 basis points. Is the equilibrium level of of the Fed funds rate at 100% of GDP, the now the now the net debt of 100% of GDP, that’s a forecast from the International Monetary Fund. So if you go on their their quarterly database, and you’ll see the updated forecast for that 100% of GDP. Very interestingly, Andrews come from the Bank of England, yes, and the UK has exactly the same debt problem that their debt, net debt, is now 100% of GDP. So all of that debt that they paid back from North Sea oil and Margaret Thatcher and all of that kind of thing, they blew it all again, and maybe Boris blew a good bit of it, by the look of it. And and so they’re now in as much debt as they’ve ever been. I

Gene Tunny  09:02

mean, it’s like with all the, you know, many advanced economy governments after the financial crisis, there was, we just took we had the view, oh yeah, we’ve got to spend money to deal with this crisis, and then we don’t really have to worry about debt anymore because interest rates are so low. Larry Summers had secular the secular stagnation hypothesis. I think that’s part of it. There’s some changed attitudes. I mean, I don’t agree with that, but that’s what would you should we go over what? How Andrew responded?

Michael Knox  09:34

Okay, Andrew, so the first question was, in your presentation of 27 June, you showed that historically, Australia has been an importer of capital. And I remark that two noted economists, Larry Summers and Olivier Blanchard of the Pearson Institute, have suggested that the high level of us net sovereign debt to GDP, which reaches a. 100% of GDP next year, according to the IMF estimates, will generate an equilibrium Fed funds rate. This is, according to Larry and Olivier, an equilibrium Fed funds rate of not less than 4% that is to say a real rate of around about 2% so does this mean that the equilibrium real short rate in Australia is likely to move to higher a higher level going forward?

Andrew Hauser 10:29

So I think the this concept of equilibrium real exchange rate [NB he means equilibrium real interest rate] is a bit like the supply capacity number in my speech. It’s a latent variable. You can’t go and look for it anywhere, right if you if someone we Bank of England joined the first week. He wrote, and he said, Can somebody tell me where the measure of the equilibrium interest rate is? And some whip rope out? He says, the same place as the NAIRU, you know, and the sustainable level of output. In other words, who knows? And so that’s an important point to start with. Nobody knows the answer to that. Larry Summers is quite good at saying he does know the answer, although sometimes, if you look back over its forecasting record, it’s not quite, doesn’t always follow quite the certainty of his, of his predictions when you so there’s huge uncertainty about what this number is. It is interest when he when he says real rate of 2% he’s been provocative, right? Because if you look at the fomc.so called dots, for example, at the estimate of FOMC members, that’s us monetary policy makers estimates for the long term real interest rate, they have a number like half a percent. It’s quite low the John Williams estimate. John Williams is head of the New York Fed, the US, who’s made a bit of a name at running various models on this is probably somewhere between nought point five and one. So the two is a higher number, and that’s your point, or his point that he thinks it’s going to be higher. There are enormous number of different drivers of this number, right? I mean, ultimately, our star as it were, sorry to use the phrase, our star equilibrium. Real rate is the outcome of equilibrium in the savings and investment market. And if you think about all the things that could drive that, those who think that number, including John and others, is relatively low, will put weight on things like, well, demographics. People get their countries are getting older, so they’re having to dissave Rather than save they’ll put weight on things like productivity. Whereas when, you know, in Australia and elsewhere, productivity rate, growth rates in most Western countries, not the US, actually, but most countries, have been quite low. And we’ll say, Well, look, actually, I don’t buy this number like 2% it’s a lot lower than that. There’ll be others like summers and others who say, Well, look, you know, there’s new shocks and new issues around I mean, I think in talking about the US debt, he must be talking about a risk premium, if that’s right, which is to say, look, there’s so much debt that the US and the 7% deficit of GDP is pretty impressive. Sometimes there’s some they’re issuing so much debt, at some point there’ll be a wobble. There may even be concerns about default risk premium will go up and that our number will go up as people start charging up to lend to the US. And you could think of other reasons too many people who will think that the energy transition, for example, is going to lead to higher investment demand, which will raise that number. You know, who knows? Is the honest answer, whether it’s 2% 1% or half. You asked a question about Australia, and because it’s actually difficult to take no view on this at all, we have a swathe for our own equilibrium, short rate, equilibrium rate, which is similar to that swathe of numbers that I showed you for unemployment. And actually that’s all that has a central point of something like three and a half, three and three quarters in nominal space. Obviously, our current cash rate is a little bit above that. So I think you pay your money and you take your choice. I wouldn’t want to be someone actually trying to invest on the basis of these numbers. Summers may be right, but it may be wildly wrong.

Michael Knox  13:58

Okay, so what I’ve said about that is, if you go to the Peterson Institute website, you’ll find five studies, different done at different periods, and the most recent one is actually that you get, it’s actually four and a half percent, 450 basis points, 100% of GDP. That’s where you concluded. But what the real test of this when Larry Summers was and actually, Larry Summers did this talk last year, yes. So I’d actually saved this question up for a year, because I’ve been, I’ve been I model bonds myself, and I use deficits and that kind of things in my bond models. But the position that Larry Summers was putting when he talked about this last year, was that when the Fed started cutting rates for 535 basis points, it would be difficult to sustainably cut it below 400 basis points. Yeah. Okay, and so when you got to 400 basis points or lower. Up or you got below 400 basis points, there would be some reaction, either in inflation or the US dollar, which might would make it difficult to continue to cut rates to where the Fed that currently projects they’ll get to, which is 250 basis points, sometime at the end of 25 or 26 Yeah, is where they think on the summary of economic projections, yeah, but they put out every quarter, so, yeah. So expectations of the Fed, of interest rates falling down to two and a half percent might crash into the reality of net debt as proposed by Larry Summers and leveling a Blanchard on the way down, we’re going to find out, yeah, that’s one of the part of the adventure of economics, yeah?

Gene Tunny  15:44

So this equilibrium nominal cash rate, or federal funds rate, so the overnight money market rate, yeah, this is the rate that they believe is, is essentially that it corresponds to neither a monetary policy stance that is neither expansionary nor contractionary. It’s a, it’s a neutral monetary policy, stand. It’s

Michael Knox  16:06

a neutral monetary policy, but it’s, it’s the basic problem here is that there’s the net debt to GDP goes up in the United States. Yeah, the real rate has to rise to attract the inflow of savings to finance that higher level of debt. So the real rate, nominal rate, plus your inflation target goes up, okay, as net the jet to GDP, right? That’s the that’s the problem.

Gene Tunny  16:33

And what did you think of his like the the RBA view? So their view of the neutral cash rate in Australia, in nominal terms, is, was he saying three and a half or three and three quarters percent? Does that sound

Michael Knox  16:46

well, where they’ve where, where it is thought to be. Okay. So when Michelle Bullock, when she herself, presented in the Hilton for us two years ago when she was also deputy governor. At that time, she then thought that the equilibrium real rate in Australia was 50 basis points. That’s what she said at the time. Now, the commentaries of the of the RBA that I’ve read and the surveys they’ve read, so that’s now increased to 75 basis points. So instead of an equilibrium short rate of inflation at two and a half percent plus 50 basis points, saying that 3% is where the equilibrium short rate is, now that’s risen to 325, basis points, or 350 right? So in the surveys they put out in part of their publication in the quarterly outlook for the summit of their not the summary of economic projections, but the statement on monetary policy in their detailed section they they look at, they do a forecast of the detailed cash rate, and they see the detail they in that detailed forecast they see in 26 December, 26 the real cash rate will get down to three and a quarter percent, but that means the inflation of two and a half percent plus 75 basis points for the real rate. They now therefore see that that real rate is 75 basis points. So

Gene Tunny  18:35

real rate 775 basis points and a target, the inflation, the target band of two and a half percent, so that gives us three and a quarter percent. That’s where they expect it to be at equilibrium, right? Gotcha. Okay,

Michael Knox  18:50

so Larry Summers are saying, but I mean, our debt to GDP is half or less, yeah, debt to GDP is half or less what it is in the US. So summers and Blanchard suggest that their equilibrium will be higher,

Gene Tunny  19:03

yeah. Okay, yep. Now that all makes sense. Okay, very good. We might go to the next question that the second question you asked, also an excellent question. So we’ll just, we’ll just play that and then we’ll catch up on that one.

Michael Knox  19:19

So the second question is Kevin Warsh. Kevin Warsh is a previous member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and now he’s he did that job for five years, and now he’s a visiting distinguished fellow at the Hoover Institute at Stanford. In an article on in Wall Street Journal on the 28th of July, Kevin Warsh said that US inflation and interest rates would be rising if the Fed was not reducing the size of its balance sheet. And if it’s reducing the size of its balance sheet, it’s reducing the money base and. Or that’s what’s driving inflation down. So my question is, the RBA is currently running down its balance sheet, and it’s quantitative tightening, and you can see this in the RBA chart book. So is this one of the reasons that the RBA has not have had, has not been forced to increase interest rates.

Andrew Hauser 20:21

So could I give you a one word answer, which is, no, you might not like that quite as much as you like my previous answer. So let me sort of elaborate a bit on that. The reason why people ask this question is obviously when interest rates were at zero or the effective lower bound during the covid period and beforehand in the UK, central banks had to find other ways of expanding of easing policy. And as you know, they did it in the most part, by buying assets, and actually also by lending to banks at longer than normal maturities, both of which the RBA also did before I before I arrived here. But certainly the Bank of England did a great deal of this as well. And it was fairly commonly felt that that effectively added to the amount of monetary stimulus in the economy, that, if you like, the effective short term interest rate went negative to some extent, right? So the thought underpinning the Kevin argument, I guess, is that if it worked on the way in, why wouldn’t it work on the way out? The trouble with that is that, by and large, and people are looking at this very carefully, can’t really find any material macroeconomic effect of unwinding the balance sheet at all, maybe a few basis points here or there, but no major central bank that’s doing it really considers that To be any part of its monetary policy strategy. We’re all watching in case that view learning turns out to be wrong. But our central estimate is that it’s likely that QE unwind, or so called Qt quantitative tightening, actually a bad phrase, right? Because the T implies more of an impact of the kind you’re describing than is actually the case. But there’s the most the central estimate at the moment across countries is the multiplier of the kuti effect is very, very small. Now, I have a particular personal engagement in this, because the Bank of England was one of the very few central banks. In fact, I think the only one that ran down its balance sheet, not only by allowing assets to mature, but by actively selling them back to the market. The New Zealand, RBN said, has been selling assets back to its own debt management agency and the RICS bank. The Swedish central bank has been doing active sales more recently. But when we first announced we had to do this, a reason we felt we had to do this is that the average maturity of the debt stock in the UK is very long, and we faced the prospect of having to hold gilts, government bonds, UK gun bonds, more or less forever, unless we started actively selling. Whereas for most countries, including Australia, the average maturity of bonds is far shorter. You can just let them roll off. We felt we had to do those active sales. I still think we had to do them. But the market, financial market, through its hands up in horror and said, This is a nightmare. You’re going to bring the market, the world to an end. You’re going to drive interest rates up in exactly the way that Warsh is describing, that will cause mayhem in the financial markets. And they were very pleased to say that prediction was another overconfident prediction of mayhem that turned out to be completely wrong. There is very little evidence so far that balance sheet unwind has driven market interest rate rates up materially, though we must continue to watch. So no, it’s not one of the reasons why the RBA has not had to lift rates. There’s one other reason before I finish, which is actually the big unwind in the balance sheet of the RBA that’s happened over the past six or 12 months has not been primarily allowing bonds to unwind. But as you probably know, it’s the maturity of the so called TFF, the term Funding Facility, which is a lending facility to banks. Again, I think there was a considerable concern here. It was, largely before I arrived, that that unwind might cause difficulties. It’s a very sharp reduction in the stock of money in the in Australia. But it has gone by practically without a whimper. So so far so good. At some point, if you keep reducing your balance sheet, you the stock of reserves will hit the demand for reserves. And if you hit that at two sort of sharpen angle, you may find that financial, you know, these relatively calm financial conditions turn into considerable instability again, and a lot of central banks are watching for that moment, but it hasn’t come yet.

Michael Knox  24:28

Okay, so, Kevin Warsh, yes, yes. I think I’ve always loved Kevin Warsh as a character, but particularly when he’s on the Fed, yeah, and he gives a speech, which you can google. Kevin Warsh, fish don’t know they’re wet. And it’s one of the great speeches I’d given at the worst part of the financial crisis about the need for liquidity and the fish. He’s describing other people in the financial market who don’t know that they’ve been swimming in this sea of liquidity until it’s. All gone, and then they they’re all flapping on the flapping on the beach in totally unable to cope with the situation. So I think that’s something you should read. Kevin Warsh fish don’t know they’re wet on the which is a speech of his when he was part of the Fed. So I think the problem, I think the problem that Andrew Hauser is talking about, when you examine this hypothesis now it’s difficult to measure it empirically. Yeah, and I think that’s true, but it doesn’t mean the fact that you can’t measure it empirically doesn’t mean that Kevin wash is wrong. I think Kevin Warsh is right, but talking about the problem of measurement, I’ve been running bond models for Australian bonds and US bonds for a couple of decades now, okay? And I know in that there’s a really big response to increases in decreases in deficit. Yeah, I remember back in the 90s at an Australian economist conference, which was in Tasmania. And at that time, bond yields, the Australian 10 year bond yield, was 9% yield was 9% Yeah. And I showed a model of based on forecasts of where the US budget deficit was going to go, because at that time what was under Clinton, yeah, and Gingrich, the US budget deficit was going back to balance. Yeah, it was extraordinary. And what I said is that that would reduce the budget reduction of budget deficit would drive bond yields down to 5% and I remember at this conference, doing this speech and being met with absolute disbelief that Australian 10 year bond yields, and us 10 year bond yields could ever fall again to 5% I mean, there was, it would be both miraculous and absurd if that, if that occurred. But it is, in fact, exactly what happened when the US balances budget deficit so but what’s happened is, but during the recent period, if you’ve got, if you’re running big budget deficits, at whiz we have in the last couple of couple of years, and at the same time, you’ve got quantitative easing, yeah, it’s what’s actually driving the market. Is not the theoretical level of the deficit, it’s the actual flow of funds, yeah, into the bond market, correct out of the bond market, yeah. And if you’re the Treasury, US Treasury, or the Australian treasury, is issuing a lot of debt, but at exactly the same time they’re being bought by the Central Bank, they’re having no effect upon the upon the bond yields, yeah, some interest rates, yeah. So it’s what happens is that that whites out this effect, which in previous periods you can see very strongly in the relationship between budget deficits and and bond yields. In this period because of quantitative easing and tightening, it’s wided out because you’ve got this influences of what the Reserve Bank is doing in each country, the reverse of what the Treasury is doing and but, but I confidently would suggest that as we go forward and we find that you’ve got big budget deficits, and the Fed is winding down smell and shoot the same time, bigger supply of bonds coming forward to the market in the next couple, one or two or three years time, that will begin to have significant effects upon bond yields. So what we saw two years ago was the lowest level of US Treasury bond yields since Alexander Hamilton invented the US Treasury bond in July 1799 and I believe he had it passed by two votes, maybe one, but I think it was a very small majority for passing the US Treasury bond back in July 1799 I’ve stood on the same floor of the old Congress building in in Philadelphia, where the bill was passed, you know. And I thought at the moment, you know, but as we go forward and we’re trying to the US is trying to finance these big deficits and yeah, and unwind the balance sheet at the same time, I think we will see that those low bond yields two years ago won’t probably be repeated for another 200 years.

Gene Tunny  29:46

Okay, so the Federal Reserve’s going to start or everyone expects them to cut. So we’ll see cuts in the federal funds rate, and so therefore longer term yields should theoretically go down as well. But. You’re saying that if you’ve got this quantitative tightening happening as well, they wouldn’t go down as much as otherwise. Is that? Is that how you’re thinking about it?

Michael Knox  30:07

Well, in the bond models, the bond models are a composition of different variables, yeah, things like budget deficits, things like inflation, short rates, are there. Yeah, capital inflow is really important, also in the early part of this century. So there’s a whole bunch of things in those bond models, but Well, firstly, what you would find is, if Olivier Blanchard and Larry sums are right, the Fed funds rate can’t go down as far as was previously thought. It doesn’t get to two and a half percent. It just gets to 4% or three and a half or something like that. And then they run into a wall for some reason. And that provides a floor in the model that will fly the floor to the to the US Treasury bond yield. And in addition that, what’s if we look at the IMF forecasts for the US budget deficit going forward to the end of this decade, you’ve got average deficits between six and 7% of GDP. Yeah, they have, and they’re really there because of the size of the debt and the amount that has to be refined, yeah, every year. And so you’ve got those two things so that’s supporting in my bond models, that itself is supporting the higher yield for us, treasuries and the and it’s working back in the Larry Summers thing, giving you a higher Fed funds rate. So both of those things will push up the equilibrium yield for the US 10 year bond over the next 10 years. So I think that, in short, the best way of looking at it is we had a bull market in bonds from 19, from when Paul Volcker was around in 8132 until about 2020, and that was a great bull market in bonds. But if you look at what happened during the 60s and the 70s, that was a bull market in bonds was followed by a bear market in bonds of about 15 years. Yeah. So I think the US Treasury bonds and our bonds are going to be in a bear market for about 15 years. And I think that’s the problem that is visitors upon us by the belief that you can spend money on whatever you like, particularly during the Biden Harris period or Biden Harris administration, and run big deficits forever, and it’s never going to cost you anything. And I think that’s wrong, and I think Larry Summers and Olivier Blanchard are right,

Gene Tunny  32:42

yeah. I agree with you about what the Biden, Biden Harris, or the Biden administration has done with inflation Reduction Act, I think that looks excessive. But I mean, if Trump gets in, he’s going to have a big tax cut, isn’t he, so that’s going to have a similar impact on the deficit, isn’t it? I mean, it’s going to potentially blow out the budget deficit, yeah,

Michael Knox  33:00

but empirically, if you actually look at the Trump period, yeah, Trump cut tax corporate taxes during that period. Yes, he put up import taxes on on China. And there was one other thing that he did, but if you remember it, I’ll, I’ll talk about that as well. And these are the things that are supposed to be inflation. But in fact, the average rate of inflation in during the Trump period was 1.9% which was one of the lowest rates of inflation of any presidential period since 1953 on the other hand, Biden and Harris didn’t do any of those things, but they had, I think it was four really big spending programs for which the inflation Reduction Act is the tiniest of those. I think there were four other ones, the American rescue plan, and all over a trillion dollars for each of the each of the those bills. Yeah, and it’s that combination of big budget deficits. It’s not just the big budget deficits, which is not was, wasn’t just short term relief spending. They built out major programs which are going out to the end of the decade. You know, they increased education spending on the on the premise that over the next 12 years there’ll be bigger school rooms and lower bigger school rooms, and therefore lower teacher student ratios in in public schools. And the reason, of course, for that was that if you had graduate dispersion of people in the in the classroom, you’d have lower, lower passage of covid, you see, because Okay, gotcha, and everything had to be Okay, gotcha. So there’s always. Endless spending, and in the inflation Reduction Act, as I’ve noted, the subsidies for making electric cars are only provided to work sites or companies that employ workers that are part of the United order Workers Union, yeah, and the International Brotherhood of electricians too, by the way, interestingly enough, both of these are significant donors to the Democratic Party. And interestingly, the and this is the subsidies for making electric cars. And interestingly, Elon Musk, who in Tesla, is the biggest single manufacturer of electric cars, receives none of these subsidies because he doesn’t employ workers who are part of the United order Workers Union or the International Brotherhood of electricians, and so his employees are not necessarily donors for the Democratic Party, so He doesn’t get a subsidy. So I think there’s that kind of thing built into a lot of these Biden Harris spending bills,

Gene Tunny  36:07

right? Michael Knox, it’s been a pleasure. I’ve really enjoyed your reactions, reflections on the the excellent Q and A session you had with Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor, Andrew Hauser, anything before we wrap up? Anything else?

Michael Knox  36:23

You didn’t ask me the question about the run on the Chinese RMB,

Gene Tunny  36:28

oh, if we’ve got time for it, tell us what’s happening with the run on the Chinese RMB, please.

Michael Knox  36:33

Well, it’s very interesting that the RMB is, it is China’s announced plan to make it a dominant reserve currency, yeah, in the international monetary system. And it does appear that from by 2020 there was $230 billion worth of bonds held in the international monetary system, RMB bonds, and that was rocketing up. And by the end of 2024 that had got to about $340 billion worth of bonds. And in comparison, at that time, the level of bonds held in Australian dollars was about 215 billion, and the level held in Canadian dollars was about two 70 billion. And that so it rocketed well past the international reserves held in Canadian dollars and Australian dollars, which, by the way, are at that we are at the minnow end of international reserve currency. Yes, yes, but it’s a great thing that the RBA is an international reserve currency and but since that time, what’s actually happened is that the level of international reserves held in RMBs, in fact, crashing. There’s been a run on the RMB and it’s now fallen from about $340 billion at the end of 24 to about 200 less than $240 billion at the end of so the peak was at the fourth quarter of 21 Yeah. And now, at the in the first quarter of 24 it’s fallen from three and $40 billion to $240 billion and is now less than the amount of international reserves held in the Australian dollar. So the question is, why is that run happening? Yeah. And that was my one of my questions. And I said, Is it, is it just because of the trust that people put in the Reserve Bank of Australia that they prefer to hold Reserve Bank of Australia bonds rather or Australian bonds rather than Chinese bonds? And why do why do they trust the RBA so much? Yeah, my unanswered question. But having looked at it, it’s really nothing to do with any of that. It’s really just the fact that at the end of 21 international bond yields, US bond yields, Australian bond yields and Canadian bond yields, with a very, very low yield, the lowest yield for decades, if not, if not centuries. Yeah. And since then, those yields have been going up, whereas the yield on RMB bonds peak. Back then, there’s now, we now bonds are paying 4% RMB bonds are paying a little over 2% so that’s right, and that’s the reason the demand for RMB is forward. It’s just the market, just the market, and the fact that they’ve got a managed exchange rate rather than a floating exchange rate, yeah, so has an effect, but we might talk about that again another time. I think we’ll have

Gene Tunny  39:33

to, I think, yeah, we’ll have to come back to it. But you figured it out. You didn’t need Andrew Hauser to know to answer it in the

Michael Knox  39:40

just wondered what he thought about it. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  39:44

okay. Michael Knox, Chief Economist at Morgans, it’s been a pleasure. We’d better wrap up there. Thanks again. Thank you. You.

Credits

Thanks to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Navigating Volatile Crypto Markets & Avoiding Scams w/ Ben Simpson, Collective Shift – EP249

Ben Simpson, founder of Collective Shift, a crypto education and research company, shares valuable insights into the volatile world of cryptocurrency. Because the crypto field is filled with misinformation and scams, Ben emphasises the need for comprehensive education and reliable research before making investment decisions. He emphasises the importance of understanding the risks and potential of Bitcoin and other digital assets. He also discusses the regulatory landscape in Australia and the disruptive potential of decentralised finance (DeFi). NB This podcast episode contains general information only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please email us at contact@economicsexplored.com  or send a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Apple Podcast and Spotify.

What’s covered in EP249

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • Crypto market volatility and how to navigate it. (1:40)
  • Bitcoin as a digital gold with potential for long-term growth. (6:54)
  • Crypto regulation, tax treatment, and education. (12:21)
  • Investing in cryptocurrency, avoiding scams, and seeking professional help. (16:44)
  • Bitcoin ETFs and investment options in Australia. (21:06)
  • Crypto market volatility, correlation with the stock market, and investment strategies. (25:20)
  • Crypto investing and decentralised finance with Ben Simpson. (31:03)

Takeaways

  1. Understanding Crypto Volatility: Cryptocurrency markets, especially Bitcoin, are highly volatile. Investors must be prepared for significant price swings and understand the underlying factors driving these fluctuations.
  2. Importance of Education: The crypto space is filled with misinformation and scams. Ben emphasises the need for comprehensive education and reliable research before making investment decisions.
  3. Regulatory Landscape: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, particularly in Australia, is still evolving. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are generally considered safe from a regulatory standpoint, many other cryptocurrencies could face challenges.
  4. Decentralised Finance (DeFi): DeFi has the potential to disrupt traditional banking by offering financial services without intermediaries. This space is growing and may offer exciting opportunities for investors.
  5. Safe Investing Strategies: Ben advises new investors to start with Bitcoin and be cautious of lesser-known cryptocurrencies, many of which may lack real value and be risky investments.

Links relevant to the conversation

Collective Shift: https://collectiveshift.io/ 

Ben’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@BenCollectiveShift 

Ben and Bergs podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/5xir3V8fvtmHTAQy2D9dQd 

Transcript: Navigating Volatile Crypto Markets & Avoiding Scams w/ Ben Simpson, Collective Shift – EP249

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:00

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host, Gene, Tunny, I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode. Please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello. Thanks for tuning in to the show. In this episode, we sit down with Ben Simpson, the founder of collective shift, a leading crypto education and research company in Australia, Ben shares his wealth of experience in navigating the volatile and often chaotic world of cryptocurrency investing. One of the key takeaways from our conversation is the importance of understanding the inherent volatility of the crypto market. Ben discusses the volatility of crypto markets, explaining why assets like Bitcoin can see dramatic price swings. He also touches on the regulatory landscape in Australia and the importance of having clear guidelines to protect investors. Ben emphasizes the need for comprehensive education and guidance as the crypto space is rife with misinformation and scams that can easily trap unwary investors. Finally, Ben shares his insights on the disruptive potential of decentralized finance. Defi, righto, let’s get into the episode. I hope you enjoy it. Ben Simpson from collective shift, welcome to the program.

Ben Simpson  01:39

Thanks so much, so much for having me. It’s good to be here.

Gene Tunny  01:41

Yes, it’s excellent. Ben, so you’ve been doing some fascinating things with collective shift. Could you tell us a bit about which you’re the founder of? Could you tell us a bit about collective shift, please? What is it that you’re that you’re offering?

Ben Simpson  01:55

Yes, I’ve been full time investing into the crypto space for seven or eight years, and it’s a very messy, chaotic industry, lot of misinformation, lot of bad people in the space. It’s just very difficult to get clarity on what’s going on actually when you invest in crypto. So when I first started out, I personally didn’t really know what what was going on. Took me a lot of time to figure out blockchain and Bitcoin and Ethereum and just all these terminologies and what it all meant. And I started working with someone in the education space to help people with crypto and eventually, I started my own thing about four years ago. And you know what we built now is we’re the largest independent education and research company in Australia. We have over 1000 paying clients around the world that pay us for crypto investment research and sort of advice. And then also we provide research and content to the crypto exchanges here in Australia. So those coin spot, Swift X, those are buy and sell cryptocurrency for like for retail customers, we provide them with some of their content research as well. So yeah, we’ve got a team about 10 full time now here in Australia. And yeah, we’ve been around for about four years. And my my mission is just to help people try and navigate their way through crypto the right way. Because I know I’ve been burned in the past in a space it’s very easy to lose money and be led down the wrong path. So we’re trying to just help people the right way, right?

Gene Tunny  03:19

Okay, and you mentioned that you were concerned about some of the misinformation in the in crypto, what, what type of things we we are you thinking of? It’s just

Ben Simpson  03:29

a lot. So in cryptocurrency, there’s 1000s and 1000s of different cryptocurrencies right now. So like, if you think about the stock market, there’s basically that equivalent in crypto, but a an endless amount of cryptocurrency projects you could buy, and my opinion is 95 to 98% of them are worthless, like they’re just built on, you know, community and, you know, FOMO, and you know, they don’t have a lot of underlying real value. And a lot of people get sucked into these projects, buying them with the hope of making a lot of money because they provide these crazy marketing guarantees and returns and all these sorts of things that people get sucked into and ultimately lose money. So that’s really where we’re trying to help guide people, from an education standpoint, where to invest. And then ultimately, cryptocurrency is extremely volatile, and it can be hard for someone to stomach the risk that comes along with crypto, Bitcoin on its journey from, you know, a few $100 to today, 55, 60,000 US dollars has gone up and down hundreds of times, you know, more than 10% and sometimes it goes down 4050, 60% in a period of days or weeks, which can be very concerning for a lot of people, because you don’t get that in the stock market right. If two or 3% in a day is kind of big in crypto, you could see 1020, 30% moves in a day. So we try and just help people understand why that happens, how to have the mindset and understanding of where the market’s going and not panic and and ultimately, try and, you know, not lose money. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  05:00

gotcha. Okay, there’s a few things I wouldn’t mind following up there. Ben, so, I mean, there’s the issue of, I mean, why does this happen? Why is crypto subject to such wild swings? Why is it so volatile? For one, could we start there, please? Yeah, let’s

Ben Simpson  05:18

start there. So one common thing that some people don’t know is that cryptocurrency trades 24/7 right when the stock market opened, has opened, open and closed times at Monday to Friday, cryptocurrency trades 24/7 and what we saw, you know, in the last few days in Japan, you know, Japan saw one of his worst days since the 1980s in the stock market. Recently, I think it dropped seven or 10% in a day, they hold to trading. You they literally just withdrew the sell button. You can’t sell anymore, right? In cryptocurrency, that that’s not, that’s not a thing. You can’t just hold trading in crypto, right? This is a free market. There’s no one, there’s no intermediary to stop what you’re doing. So it’s a free market. And ultimately, people you know, have emotions they fear, and if they’re going to sell, they’re going to sell. And in cryptocurrency, because the market caps of these projects are relatively small, you get these liquidation events, and what happens is basically these cascading effects of traders get liquidated, whales get liquidated, retail investors then panic, and then you get these huge fluctuations. So there’s a lot of different variables, but ultimately, it’s a free market. No one’s manipulating it from a, you know, intermediary perspective, and if people are scared, they’re going to sell. And it happens pretty quickly, right?

Gene Tunny  06:27

Okay, now, if you’re getting into this market, I mean, if you’re interested in crypto, do you, do you provide some guiding principles, or do you identify red flags. Can you tell us a bit about what new investors should be looking out for?

Ben Simpson  06:45

Yeah, so if I have a new investor that comes to me and wants to figure out how to create an investment portfolio, I really, I really try and recommend that they start off with just Bitcoin. It’s really important to understand that Bitcoin is the biggest, most leading cryptocurrency. It’s the most well known. Then there’s 1000s of other cryptocurrencies after that, right? So it’s important to differentiate Bitcoin from cryptocurrency, because Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency, but bitcoin is its own separate thing, and that’s the way I look at it. So I usually start off by just looking at Bitcoin, and Bitcoin, ultimately, for me, should, or for others, should be looked at as a hedge against, you know, your overall investment portfolio, right? It’s not correlated to stocks or the property market or bonds. It’s ultimately a completely separate asset that is in its own area. And I would probably think even only 1% of your entire net wealth into Bitcoin, I think is a pretty good good idea, just in terms of its risk to reward ratio. So the reward being potentially, if it pulls off what it’s trying to achieve. In terms of the global monetary asset, the price returns are quite or the projections are quite large, where the risk is quite minimal, in a sense of it’s been around for 10 or 12 years. It’s now got its own ETF, which was the one of the largest ETF launches in history. It’s owned by a lot of NASDAQ listed companies. You know, it’s owned by governments on their balance sheet. So, like, the risk of Bitcoin now is far, far, far less than what it has been in the past and where we think it could go. I think everyone should consider it in terms of just, even only a little

Gene Tunny  08:21

bit. Right? Okay, so in terms of where you think it can go. I mean, you, are you thinking Bitcoin to a million? I think was that? Was that Kathy Wood, did she have that prediction? I mean, is that? Is that serious or credible?

Ben Simpson  08:35

I mean, look, you know, who knows is really the answer gene like, you know, who knows where this could go? The biggest thing that I think is the most important thing to understand with Bitcoin is it’s a limited supply asset. There’s only 21 million Bitcoin that ever be created. And the supply and demand economics, as we’ve seen recently, there’s more demand for Bitcoin that there is supply, right? And just basic supply and demand economics is showing us that if you get a lot of people wanting an asset, and there’s very few, there’s very few of it, you know, the price, you know, goes up over time. Do I think you get to a million dollars? I do think you can get there at some stage. Maybe, you know, it’s probably gonna take 1020, 30 years to get there. But for me, Bitcoin compound has been compounding at 60% year over year for the last 10 years. It’s up 75% of the last 12 months. It’s one of the best performing assets on the planet. For me, I think it’s one of the best investments you can own.

Gene Tunny  09:29

Right? Okay, and what’s your what’s your theory or like, Why do you think that there is this underlying value? Because there is a lot of skepticism about cryptocurrency, particularly from economists, and there’s all sorts of concerns about regulatory risk. I mean, you pointed to the fact that, okay, it’s been held. You know, certainly people are investing in it at the moment. But, yeah, I just wonder what’s the story regarding the actual. Use case for it? Is there a use case outside of some illegal transactions? Yeah.

Ben Simpson  10:05

And I think, I think the hardest thing for most people to wrap their head around is that, you know, you can’t touch it, you can’t feel it, you can’t smell it like it’s a completely digital asset, and it doesn’t have free cash flow, right? Warren Buffett hates it. He calls a rat poison square, right? There’s a lot of people that don’t like it, because it’s not, not similar to what’s been around in previous times. If we look at a country like, you know, Venezuela, right? Or, you know Mexico, some of these places, not, maybe not Mexico, but Venezuela, right? We look at some of these places where they’re fiat currency, Argentina, sorry, who was I was looking for their local local currency has inflated so much that it’s basically worthless, right? It just continues to inflate. Because of the government has printed more and more money. So holding something that isn’t controlled by government, something that is inherently deflationary, in a sense that it doesn’t increase its supply. In fact, the circulating supply slows down. People are looking at Bitcoin now as a new digital gold, you know, not to say it’s going to replace gold. Gold is, you know, one of the safest assets on the planet, but this is a new version of gold. I use Bitcoin to pay my employees. If I go and try and pay my overseas staff with my bank account, it gets shut down. Many phone calls from their frauds team. They want to know where it’s going, why it’s going. They take huge conversion rate fees. It takes two weeks to arrive. It’s horrendous. Where I can send bitcoin instantly to anyone in the world with no middleman, and they can receive it, you know, within seconds. And that’s being utilized more and more, from from from businesses in different countries, as well, from a payments level. But ultimately, the the use case for me is it’s a digital gold. It’s an asset that, you know, continues to perform, you know, over time. And I think the best way to look at it is, is that digital gold, you know, analogy, and we’re seeing, you know, companies like micro strategy and NASDAQ, listed company, you know, holding hundreds of 1000s of Bitcoin now in the balance sheet, because if you continue to hold cash, just the the purchasing power of your dollar is doing to devalue. Like, where do you park your cash? What? What asset can you hold that’s going to be a hedge against inflation? You know, a gold has an outbeat. Hasn’t out beaten inflation in the last five years. Like, where do you put your money? And Bitcoin starting to be seen as something that you can park your capital in,

Gene Tunny  12:19

right? Okay. And what do you see is that, are there regulatory risks with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? Central banks are looking at CBDCs, the central bank digital currencies. Is there a risk that there could be a regulatory crackdown on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? Yeah, I

Ben Simpson  12:41

definitely think there’s a risk for some cryptocurrencies. You know, again, important to differentiate Bitcoin different to other cryptocurrencies. The SEC in the US has clearly defined Bitcoin as a commodity, and now they have their own Bitcoin spot ETF, now the Ethereum spot ETF. So the government has approved, and the SEC has approved these financial instruments to buy bitcoin and Ethereum in the US and Australia tends to follow. There’s a Bitcoin ETF in Australia, so it’s from a regulatory framework. Bitcoin and Ethereum really is in a safe category now, but there is a lot of other crypto assets that could, could potentially look like securities, and that sort of plays a bit into some of these exchanges not being able to sell it. But no, the direction we’re going in and what, what we’re seeing now from the US and Australia is that, you know, even Donald Trump, right? Donald Trump, the other day, spoke at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, and wants us to be the hub of crypto. He wants the US to be the center of, you know, cryptocurrency sort of development in the world. So, yeah, I think it’s actually moving towards politically pandering or not politically a good thing for these, these candidates, to be pro crypto, because the reality is, a lot of people own it,

Gene Tunny  13:58

right? Okay, and what’s, what’s the regulatory environment like here in Australia, been seeing some of Senator Andrew Bragg’s commentary, and like he he’s been grilling Treasury public servants at estimates hearings, and it looks like that they’ve been rather slow in in setting up a regulatory environment, would you know what the issues are there? I mean, is what needs to happen with regulation in Australia for crypto? Yeah, I

Ben Simpson  14:29

think that then we’re actually asking for more regulation. Really like, because there’s really not much clarity. Like, and as an educator and someone that wants to help consumers, there is very little regulation. It’s very much in a gray area. You go and talk to lawyers and they give they give you a roundabout answer, but you know, I think the reality is gene that this asset class is so new and so few people truly understand it, that the existing regulation of securities and stocks and assets just doesn’t fit well with crypto, because it’s so unique and it’s so different. But. Many loopholes and so many unknowns and variables. I know there was a paper drawn up about recommendations recently, but, you know, these things move relatively slowly, and it goes through a lot of hands, so I’d love more regulatory clarity. You know, we saw some pretty poor things that happened in the US over the last few years, like FTX, you know, Celsius, these crypto exchanges that were doing nefarious things, you know, ultimately, that had nothing to do with the underlying asset. That wasn’t bitcoins fault, that was people running these exchanges that wanted to defraud customers. That was their fault. And if we had better regulation and overview, perhaps that wouldn’t have happened. So we’re welcoming that. It’s just yeah, these things take time with the politics and government. Unfortunately, yeah. And

Gene Tunny  15:41

what does it mean for the the tax treatment of crypto? So if you make a gain or a profit on your or a capital gain on your crypto, you’re liable for for tax for that. Are you?

Ben Simpson  15:51

Yeah, yeah, just like normal capital gains, like, if you sell Telstra shares for BHB shares, it’s a taxable event. Um, you pay your capital gains. You know, some investors may think that they can get away with it, but reality is, cryptocurrencies are built on a blockchain, and a blockchain is an immutable ledger that anyone can see, yeah, and we’ve seen the ATO now develop software to actually go and track these, these accounts that aren’t paying their tax. All the Australian exchanges have to report on all their users, so, you know, they’re having a real crackdown on that. And as they should, people thinking they get away with it is not, it’s not the right way to think about it. You know, people are paying their capital gains. And, yeah, there’s, there’s a lot of oversight now in that tax space as well. So, yeah, very much similar to the stock stocks. How would you how you pay your tax?

Gene Tunny  16:36

Yeah, gotcha. Okay, interesting with the just going back to the crypto education. I mean, I think that’s so important. Because the concern I have is that the, you know, everyone thinks crypto is a the next big thing. And, I mean, you know, possibly it is and yet, but you have a lot of dumb money go in, and you’ve got or a lot of people who probably shouldn’t be putting all their hard earned savings into into a speculative asset. I mean, maybe, I mean, you’re steering people toward the more established ones, but they’re also, you know, there are 1000s of other crypto currencies out there. So, yeah, if you did, if you did come across a proposal or a new what is it? Is it an ICR initial coin offering? Or, if you’re looking at investing in crypto, what are the sort of things that you should be that that would be a red flag that would set off alarm bells that, because I know I’ve heard this term rug pull. How would you how would you know if you could be a victim of that look?

Ben Simpson  17:40

Unfortunately, it’s very common in the cryptocurrency space. You know, I tend to direct people in only investing into older coins that have been around for a little while, like these. ICOs, initial coin offerings were a big thing back in the day, and unfortunately, a lot of people get sucked into these because they promise return, like anything that promises returns, guarantees percentage returns over a period of time. Has crazy lock up periods where you have to basically give your cryptocurrency and lock it up for a period of time to earn rewards, anything that pays you to bring on other people, like a Ponzi scheme, anything that has crazy marketing on social media. None of these good projects do any of that. And ultimately, a lot of those are probably scams, if any of the projects you’ve invested in does that. So ultimately, focus in the top assets. You know, the top 10, top 20, Bitcoin, Ethereum. Solana, start there before working your way down. The further down the market capitalist you go, the more risky the investments are. And unless you really tapped in to know what you’re doing, it can be very difficult to navigate. You know those investments and rug pulls are common the further you go down. Rug pulls are basically, you know, if you think of standing on a rug and someone pulls a rug underneath you, that’s just really when the founder or the owner, or there’s a there’s a hack of the project, and you lose all your money. So you really do need to be careful.

Gene Tunny  18:56

Gotcha. So if someone comes to you, so would they go to the collective shift side? And then there’s a online course you can do,

Ben Simpson  19:04

yeah. So we there’s basically two tiers. So one is, we just have our platform where you sign up, you log in, you can see all of our token ratings. So we do, you know, token things like morning staff for crypto, that’s what we’re trying to build, token ratings research community. We do live group sessions. They can jump on a live session with me, and I go through the market and how I’m investing. And then we have a higher tier. For those that are a bit more have a bit more capital at play. Usually they’re wanting to invest a quarter of a million plus, or they already have that invest in crypto. That’s where you can work one on one with me. We have private events. We do online sessions, you know, private sort of WhatsApp group, where we can kind of help you out and deliver you more support. And that’s really where we have our team of analysts by your side to give you independent information. And that’s really what people pay us for, because you can go online, you can listen to YouTubers, you can try and figure it all out yourself, but it’s going to take you a heap of time. You won’t know who to trust. Most likely, the person is giving you an information doesn’t really know what they’re talking about, and you can lose a lot of money if you’re not sure what you’re doing. So that’s really where we can come and help.

Gene Tunny  20:10

Yeah. So what takes a heap of time doing the research or getting set up or getting the wallet? I mean, what? What actually takes the time probably

Ben Simpson  20:20

initially, just even researching the space, what coins to buy, when to buy, when to sell, how to store it? Where do you store it? How do you you know? How do you not stuff it up? What are the scams look like this like? As you go further down the rabbit hole, there just becomes this infinite amount of information, and you Google crypto, and you just get a million different opinions and a million different people saying different things. And I think really where the time gets sucked in is the information overload. Did you start reading it like this? Says something? This is something else. Everyone has their own opinions, which right or wrong is, Can? Can just send you down a path of confusion? Yeah, and that’s why we work with a lot of people that come to me and go, Ben, I’ve done this, or I made this mistake. Or, you know, I just need help. I don’t know what to do. Can you help me? That’s kind of where we sort of step in. And can guide you. Okay?

Gene Tunny  21:06

And so this, what would this be? Why a Bitcoin ETF is a is an attractive proposition relative to actually owning Bitcoin yourself. Or,

Ben Simpson  21:17

yeah,

Gene Tunny  21:18

am I thinking, how is that right or yeah,

Ben Simpson  21:21

there’s your two options, right? If you want to go, Yeah, Ben, I want to go buy bitcoin tomorrow. What are my options? Well, number one is, you go, you sign up to a cryptocurrency exchange, you buy bitcoin, so you deposit Australian dollars, you buy bitcoin, and then you need to store it somewhere. You either store it with the cryptocurrency Exchange, or you get a wallet and you store it yourself, right? Yeah, that’s what I do. That’s what I recommend most people do. But that is, ultimately, you have to have some sort of knowledge, right? The other option is, you go to your brokerage account and you go and buy a Bitcoin ETF, and that’s what’s been so big in the US recently. You know, there’s a about 9% of the entire Bitcoin supply is now owned by ETFs. And basically the ETF is where you buy a share and that sits in your portfolio, and then the ETF provider is buying that Bitcoin and storing it on your behalf. So you have to worry about all the storage and custody. Yeah, gotcha.

Gene Tunny  22:13

And did you say there was a there’s a Bitcoin ETF here in Australia,

Ben Simpson  22:17

there is, there is, there’s a couple. I’m not actually sure what the ticker is. I’ll have to maybe send that to you later. Gene, that’s okay, just interested, yeah, but there is one launch recently in Australia. I think it might be ebtc. I don’t know. I have to double check, but, yeah, mono, actually, monochrome. Ibtc, monochrome is one of the first Bitcoin ETF, so you should be able to get that in your brokerage account. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  22:44

but the people you’re who come to you, it sounds like you’re helping them get set up on their own. And it sounds like you’ve got, I mean, you’ve got people who are really, you know, keen to learn, keen to keen to get into crypto. What’s the demographic? I mean, can you Yeah, for

Ben Simpson  23:03

sure, it’s really two types of customers we work with. One is, you know, 50 to 65 that maybe are investing in their SMSF, or they have a large amount of funds that they’ve invested into crypto, and they really want to, wanting to set themselves up for retirement. They need some help just figuring out how to do it. And the other demographic is, you know, 3540 years old, have have a have a family, have a business, have large amounts of investments elsewhere, and they might have 500,000 a million dollars. You know, we’ve got guys right up to 25 million in crypto that have their own businesses and stuff going on, and they need our help and our research and our frameworks to help guide them through the market. Think about exit strategy, risk profile, storage, you know, asset selection, you know, it’s like in it’s your own investment. You know, family office for some people, so they need some independent guidance to help Sure. You know, they don’t stuff it up,

Gene Tunny  24:01

right? And are you, as part of that? Are you providing advice on other investments, on their whole investment portfolio?

Ben Simpson  24:10

No, no, just, just, just cryptocurrency. So we give, we give sort of general frameworks and insights and research and data to help them make they still need to make the decision themselves. You know, we’re again, back to the regulatory piece. You know, we’re going to be first in line to get a cryptocurrency financial license when we can that. That doesn’t exist right now, because crypto isn’t, it isn’t seen as a financial product in Australia. You know, well, commodities aren’t. So, you know, once that becomes available, you know, we’re going to be first in line to get that, but for now, we just give general sort of information, and then people make up their mind from

Gene Tunny  24:46

there. Okay, and so do you have the what is it? The Australian Financial Services licensed, AFSL,

Ben Simpson  24:54

yeah, yeah, that’s what. I mean, we actually can’t get one for crypto, right? Okay, yeah, because it doesn’t fall. Like, cryptocurrencies don’t fall under that framework. So we had a, we had a meeting with, you know, ASIC, a private ruling, you know, while back, and it was just, unfortunately, they can’t provide one, because cryptocurrencies don’t fall under that and that’s where that regulatory discussion is going on. At some stage it should fall under something, yeah, and they will be able to be able to go and get that, yeah,

Gene Tunny  25:20

yeah. Well, it just looks like a real dereliction of duty on the part of our regulators, because you’ve got a lot of people interested in it and investing a lot of money, it sounds like it in it. I mean, if you’ve got people with what was it? 25 million in crypto? Yeah,

Ben Simpson  25:38

wow. And, and, and we, you know, from our business model, Gene, like we, we’re purely independent, right? We charge subscription fees for our information, and that’s it, right? You’ve got others that are charging fees, taking commission on investments, selling investments, getting paid to promote tokens. Like it is the Wild West, what some of these people are doing, right? And that’s completely just unregulated. People just go and do what they want. We don’t do any of that because we’re genuinely trying to help people. But yeah, we’re wanting this to come to the space so people can, you know, be, be more trusting in the information that’s out there? Yeah,

Gene Tunny  26:14

yeah, absolutely. I think that’s, that’s a good, a good strategy. And, yeah, I mean, it sounds like you need some type of license like that. That’d be good if they can develop that, and then, particularly if advice can be provided to people about how this sits within the whole portfolio and what other investment opportunities there are out there for people. Yeah, very good. I’d like to go on before we wrap up, just to you know what’s happened. What’s the state of the market recently? So you mentioned, well, there’s no, I mean, you said there’s no correlation between crypto and other assets. I’d like to talk about that and just understand what you mean there. I mean, because big there was a bit of a sell off, wasn’t there when we had the recent sell off in, you know, the S, P and all that, yep. So, like, how do you think about that? That correlation,

Ben Simpson  27:11

declare, to clarify the price is, is definitely still correlated right now, like, in terms of, like, when the stock market sell offs. You know, there’s definitely correlation with Bitcoin. To clarify in terms of, like, where I think it’ll be in five or 10 years time, I definitely see Bitcoin as a as not being correlated with the stock market. But yeah, what we saw over the last few days with, you know, the recession fears, and then Japan selling off and you know that that that carry trade idea that’s been going on, where people are borrowing money in Japan for zero interest, and, you know, buying assets in the in in in the States, and then Japan increase the interest rates, and all of a sudden everyone gets sort of margin called that found its way into crypto. And then, you know, one of the, one of the fascinating things gene is what happened on the weekend was that if you’ve got a margin call on a weekend where you can’t go and just withdraw hundreds of 1000s of dollars from your account. It takes 123, days from your banking. Yeah, you know, just position, right? Crypto is liquid. 24/7, so people need money, and they’ve got liquidity in crypto. You can go, just pull that out tomorrow, right? You need ten million tomorrow. You can get that within a second, right? If you have those that those assets, if you want to withdraw 10 million out of your brokerage account, oh my goodness, right, you gotta call someone out. They’re going to want to know where it’s going. Why is, why are you doing that? It’s going to take multiple days to to get approval. So what we saw was, people need liquidity. They go to crypto. Crypto sold off. There’s a lot of margin calls. Then what happens is the long, the long, traders in crypto got liquidated. The price just dumped. And then that was on our Monday, and by Tuesday, Japan had sort of in the futures market had corrected. Looks like they’re starting to get the money printers going again. And then crypto sort of bounced. I think bitcoins up 10 or 12% Ethereum is up six or 7% you know, overnight. So it was one of those real technical sell off events. Fundamentally, you know, nothing, nothing wrong with the asset class. But that’s, that’s what I mean with the volatility of crypto, things can happen. You know, you’re down 20% one day and up 10% the next day. Like, it’s pretty, pretty wild.

Gene Tunny  29:15

Yeah, yeah. So you’ve got to be prepared for that, and that’s part of what your your education is. So it’s the Yeah. I should note, we’re recording this on the seventh of August in Australia. And yeah, I’m always loath to talk. I’m always reluctant to talk too much about, you know, what’s happening in the market at the moment, because things can, things can change, and by the time you put about the podcast episode out, things can be completely different. But I thought I’d ask you about that. Yeah, that sounds like, it sounds like you’ve got a good, little, good little business there, and you’re, you’re helping people, because there’s certainly a an interest in in crypto, and I think you’re, it sounds like you’re coming from the you. Right place. Is there anything else? I mean, what sort of what are you focused on at the moment in the crypto market? What, what exciting things are you seeing? Ben,

Ben Simpson  30:10

yeah, that’s good question. Gene, I mean, I primarily focus on just building my portfolio of those, those more blue, blue chip, quote, unquote, Bluetooth assets, Bitcoin, Ethereum. I’m a very big believer in decentralized finance, or Defy. You know the idea where you can take out loans, earn interest on your money without the need of a bank, and then you can buy those underlying tokens that that that support that project, and you can earn the fees and interest from the lenders and the people putting up their capital. So defi is a big place for me. I’m pretty heavily invested into that. A lot of that defi activity is built on Ethereum. I’m a very big believer in Ethereum. And then you’ve got other, you know, different things going on, whether it be web three, gaming, whether it be, you know, different blockchains. There’s a lot going on in the crypto space. Yeah, sometimes I think that, you know, and I talk about this a lot, there’s, there’s a million solutions fighting for about five problems that you know, that actually need to be sold. And I think for a lot of people, you know that follow my content online, it’s a bit of a breath of fresh air, because you listen to a lot of crypto people, and it’s just, you it’s just, it’s up only right? It’s never going down. Everything’s amazing. Well, reality is it’s not. And there’s a lot of crap in the crypto space, and I’m really pretty honest about that and calling it out. So yeah, lots going on. But for me, Bitcoin is just Bitcoin and property. For me, the two assets that really I think are going to be the best performers over the next few

Gene Tunny  31:44

years. You’re talking in Australia or Yeah, but I mean Bitcoin internationally. Oh, sorry,

Ben Simpson  31:49

yeah, Australia for property and then Bitcoin internationally. Yeah, gotcha.

Gene Tunny  31:53

Okay. So where can people follow you? Is the best place to follow you? On YouTube?

Ben Simpson  32:00

Yeah, YouTube, if you like video content, just go to Ben Simpson on YouTube. If you’re on Instagram, I put up in like, shorter form content. I put content up on Instagram. I always have my own crypto podcast called called Ben and Berg’s. If you like podcast, yeah. And then we also do a newsletter as well. So if you like email, you can head over to collective shift. There’s a newsletter button at the top, and we send, like, a weekly, weekly digest of what’s going on. So depending on the medium I’m pretty much on all them, I better

Gene Tunny  32:25

make sure I’ve subscribed to that. I don’t think I have. Sorry about that. That’s it. That sounds like the sort of sort of thing I should subscribe to. And was it Ben and Berg? Did you say Ben and

Ben Simpson  32:35

Berg’s? Yeah, B, E, R, G, s, okay. So we do two episodes a week on crypto and again, it’s really no, no nonsense, no no, no bullshit. Is we’d like to call it just sort of giving you what you need

Gene Tunny  32:49

to know. Oh, that’s good. I like that. Your final question that just occurred to me with this defy with the decentralized finance, how disruptive could that be to the traditional banks. So the big four banks in Australia here, for example. I mean, is this something that they should be they should be concerned about?

Ben Simpson  33:08

Yeah, I don’t think it will ever take over the bank stream like I think the reality is that, you know, you look at the big four banks that are probably the biggest companies in Australia, right? You know, I don’t think a lot of people are going to turn away from this, because you need some level of of skill set with defi, but I believe it’s a it’s a better model where you’re not paying the middle person. You know, look how much money Comm, bank and ANZ are making. Like it’s obscene, right? They make all these fees, and it goes to shareholders. And, you know, I understand business as business, but, you know, with a decentralized model, there is no middleman. You don’t have to pay some person in the middle just because they were there. All that money and value can stay within, you know, a peer to peer environment. And, you know, those things already existing. I can take out a loan tomorrow. I can basically take my bitcoin, and I can go and take a collateralized loan out. So I can go and put up, let’s say, $10,000 a Bitcoin, and I can, I can lend out against that Bitcoin as a collateralized loan, so I don’t have to sell my bitcoin, and I can cash flow it without selling it. And that idea, I think, is only going to continue to grow, where people can stay within the crypto ecosystem and not have to go to banks, to go and to finance different activities, you know, loans, mortgages, whatever it might be. So, yeah, I think it’s very disruptive. How long is it going to take to disrupt? Who knows? But yeah, I like that space

Gene Tunny  34:27

right? And now there’s some good companies here in Australia, or are they mainly in the US doing this? There’s

Ben Simpson  34:33

one or two in Australia. We work with a company called Block earner. They’re not purely defi. They’re more of just a lending company, a pure defi company that I’m invested in, that’s in from Australia, is called maple, Maple finance. Oh, yeah, M, A, P, L, E, and yeah. They’re probably one of the largest defi providers in the space, founded out of Sydney. So yeah, a pretty cool project. And go check out as well.

Gene Tunny  34:59

Good one. Okay. Hey, Ben, it’s been terrific. Anything else before we wrap up? No, that’s it, mate. Thanks

Ben Simpson  35:03

so much for having me. Gene and yeah, if anyone wants some some help, we also do some free, like, just a free 30 minute call. If you’re thinking about getting into crypto or you need some help, you can jump on a call with one of our team, and we can help you out. Just head over to our website, which is just Google collective shift. And yeah, we’ll see what,

Gene Tunny  35:19

how we can help. Yeah, that’s terrific. I mean it, it sounds like, yeah, you’re coming from the right place. And my, my next door neighbor at what? So in in Brisbane, Thomas, he’s well aware of you. So he’s, he gives you the big tick of approval. So, well, I’ll put links in the show notes to you all the to your to your website and to your podcast and YouTube. Ben has been terrific. I’ve really enjoyed the conversation. Thanks,

Ben Simpson  35:46

Gene, thanks for having me. Man, bye.

Credits

Thanks to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Incubating Startups at the Intersection of Insurance and Technology – Insurtech Gateway w/ Stephen Brittain – EP240

Stephen Brittain, co-founder of Insurtech Gateway, explains how insurance technology, ‘insurtech,’ provides solutions to real-world problems. From aiding farmers in India to deal with the ‘hot cow’ problem to rethinking commercial flood insurance in the US, startups incubated by Insurtech Gateway are crucial players in helping people and businesses better handle risks.

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

What’s covered in EP240

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • Incubating startups in the insurance industry, reducing early stage risk. (4:53)
  • Innovation in insurance industry, including use of data and AI to predict risk and personalize policies. (9:40)
  • Using parametric insurance to manage flood risk. (14:28)
  • Flood insurance and risk management using technology. (19:36)
  • Using technology to mitigate risks in agriculture and the insurance industry. (24:44)
  • Disrupting the insurance industry with new technologies and innovations. (31:21)
  • De-risking climate innovation and insuring against natural disaster risks. (37:17)
  • Using technology to manage natural disaster risks. (40:48)

Takeaways

  1. Insurtech is leveraging technology to fundamentally change the relationship between insurers and customers, focusing on transparency and proactive risk management.
  2. Technological advances in the insurance sector are now tackling real-world problems by enhancing predictive models and using data more effectively to mitigate risks.
  3. InsurTech innovations improve customer service and efficiency and can also address big challenges such as climate change and disaster management.
  4. Collaboration between tech innovators and traditional insurance companies can potentially redefine industry standards and expectations, leading to more tailored insurance products.
  5. Regulatory challenges remain significant, but the evolving landscape of insurtech suggests a promising future.

Links relevant to the conversation

Insurtech Gateway website:

https://www.insurtechgateway.com/ (scroll down for the video summary of what they do)

Article about the cost-benefit analysis Gene did for IND Technology:

https://adepteconomics.com.au/early-fault-detection-for-rural-power-lines-can-reduce-bushfire-risk/

FloodFlash:

https://floodflash.co/us/

Transcript: How Good was Adam Smith? 4 Tax Maxims from 250 Years Ago that are Still Fresh – EP239

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Stephen Brittain  00:03

The ability for both sides of the equation to understand their actions and their risk implications and the pricing that comes with it and the transparency is, we’re starting to see a very different relationship between the insurer and the customer. Because what we’re, what we’re saying is if you do this, this is what the outcome will be.

Gene Tunny  00:30

Welcome to the economics expored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, and welcome to the show. Today we’re diving into the dynamic world of Insure Tech where their esteemed guests Steven Britton, co founder of InsurTech gateway, Stevens has been at the forefront of insurer Tech’s disruptive journey, and I’m thrilled to have him on the show. insurer tech or insurance technology is revolutionising the traditional insurance industry. It’s harnessing cutting edge technology, big data, analytics and AI to mitigate risks, enhance customer experience, and to introduce new products. In this episode, Stephen will share how these technological advances are not just theory, but they’re solving real world problems we can all relate to. A standout story that we’ll explore involves the hot cow problem that farmers face in India. Here and insurer tech solution can prevent milk spoilage due to unexpected heatwaves. This is a compelling example of how technology is making a tangible difference in traditional sectors, improving lives and livelihoods. Without further ado, let’s dive into the episode. Enjoy. Stephen Britain, welcome to the programme.

Stephen Brittain  02:10

The Many thanks for having me.

Gene Tunny  02:11

Very pleased to be here. Oh, it’s a pleasure. Your company so your co founder of Insure tech gateway, which is in this insure tech, spatial or field. And it’s different from insurance. So one of the things I’ve I’ve seen you say your insurer tech investors, not insurance investors, could could you start off by telling us what is in shorter gateway? And what do you mean by this distinction, please,

Stephen Brittain  02:46

are too many thanks for giving me the chance to clarify that we always need a glossary with all these new words like InsurTech. So we’re interested in risk. And we’re interested in the overlap of risk and all the amazing new technologies that have come to market. So if I was telling you that we were investing in insurance and technologies, the assumption would be that we’re just making insurance a bit slicker and a bit faster, and a bit cooler to millennials or something that it’s a kind of a nap, a natural evolution of insurance to just look a little more modern. But I think that behind the scenes, those of us that really got our teeth into this, I really understood the power of data too. And the power of predictive models, to not look at the risks in any way, in the same way that we used to, which is to say that we we now feel empowered to predict and mitigate and reduce risk in the first place. So that we can, we can inform and educate and, and change the way people behave, we’re going to be far more effective to solve things or sorry, we are, we have an opportunity to be super effective to solve things pre what we would traditionally call an insured event or a catastrophic event. As opposed to being really slick and fast to resolving the claim or the loss after it’s happened. And all those things are true. But I think the things that are particularly excited me is all the stuff that happens before the insurer gets the phone call that we could do today. So I’m particularly I came from outside of insurance with an excitement about the potential of technology and particularly a big data and saw the overlap of risk and data being a game changer in pretty much everywhere I looked. And I understood insurance purely as a business bond. This is just a way to distribute really clever technologies to market in long term annuity models, which looks brilliant on a business case. And there’s got some amazing game changer components to it. We can dig into some of those bits because even that’s just introduce a whole new new glossary of terms for you. As I said, I tried Yeah, simpler. But so we have effectively gone out to the tech market and to people who understand, you know, the clients of insurance and said, What are your problems? Can we help you too? Can we help by incubating the kind of products and services of the future for you? Like, what are you needing? What are the pains you’re going through? Because with a friend with a fresh eyes of technology, and data and risk mitigation, we can we can identify, and we can attract early stage startups who and we can help them then to market?

Gene Tunny  05:29

Okay, okay. There are a few things I want to explore there. First, what do you mean by being an incubator? So? I mean, are you venture capitalists? Is it like, to what extent are you venture capitalists? To what extent are you? Like, how do we distinguish between a venture capital investor and an incubator? Is there any distinction? Can you help me explain that place?

Stephen Brittain  05:55

So, we’re event we’re an early stage venture capital company. So I guess our, our outputs, early investments, and other people that back us, you know, they call themselves LPs, limited partners, if we were a venture capital firm. But the critical thing we understood was, I mean, it’s, it’s really difficult to do early stage investing, because you genuinely have this incredible amount of, you know, market risk, distribution risk and early execution risk, particularly in the regulated market of insurance. So we did, we kind of built the business in reverse. So our definition of an incubator is that we have a regulated sandbox, we have the ability to take an idea, a software, model, a new piece of data. And we can, we can authorise it within the insurance regulation so that we can test either products or distribution channels. And by having that capability ourselves, effectively, we have our own mini Launchpad, we were able to reduce the early, early stage risk considerably. That meant that we didn’t work that matched beautifully with an early stage investment business. And so we would often have visitors saying, could you give us $10 million? Because we’ve got this impossible task? To get this product to market? We could say, why don’t you just take a you know, half a million dollars, because we’ve got the doorway into market. Because we aren’t gateway first. This is a gateway, a regulated channels straight into test stuff. So the journey is just going to be so much shorter, and the lessons of whether we can share from so many things we’ve done. So that was our definition of incubator.

Gene Tunny  07:40

Right? So I guess it’d be good to talk about some of the, the businesses or the startups that you’re incubating. Because I’m interested in this concept of the gateway. And who’s the gateway to? Is it to insurance companies? Is it to reinsurance companies? Because you’ve got with the insurance market, you’ve got retail insurance offerings, don’t you? And then you have the is it wholesale? Or the reinsurance market? Like it’s a quite a complicated market, isn’t it? So where are your like, I’d be interested to explore where your startups fit into that whole. That whole market. We’ve

Stephen Brittain  08:16

done 36, we’ve got 32nd Live businesses. So in truth, we’ve got a bit of everything now. Right, we’ve ended up with, because we’ve been businesses that have approached us from many different parts of client value chains. There’s obviously there are also some businesses that have been working across the insurance value chain itself. How do we do better claims? How do we do better assessments and things, we get those two, but it would generally be in new sectors, like peer to peer rentals, or, you know, the kind of Airbnb networks of properties, looking at ways of maturing that market and working through the various value chain and some of the challenges of a fragmented market with point solutions that are turned into businesses that could affect eventually be regulated as brokerage firms, or as datasets. So, so I’m trying to, can I go back and answer that question in a slightly more structured way for you? Because I think I’m wondering,

Gene Tunny  09:18

oh, it’s not gonna keep keep going. I mean, it’s interesting. I think I understand what you’re saying, but it sounds like you’ve got Yeah, they’re in there doing all lots of different things. And it’s that sounds like it’s a like it’s expand. It’s offering a new retail product or product for you. We’re talking about what Airbnb was it and peer to peer. Yeah.

Stephen Brittain  09:40

And I wanted to ask you, you’re such a good question about what does it get, you know, the gateway bit and then also, we built it initially, thinking that the gateway thesis one was, let’s take people with a really good insight of their own market. Yeah. And they know they need a regulated solution, they need to regulate what they’ve got. So they couldn’t get to market. And we just effectively became an access point into market and for the regulated market. So, Gateway, this is number one is taking non insurance people and ideas and then allowing them to enter the regulated product space.

Gene Tunny  10:17

Right? What so this is home insurances and medical insurance. So

Stephen Brittain  10:24

far insurances and, and flash flood insurance is back in 2016 17. It was basically sort of unusual, quite disruptive models about how we might want to consume insurance. As as the world was becoming more fragmented services were becoming more fragmented. And it’s iterated is involved now, because we’ve just just the nature of what we do, are people trying to solve a wildfire? And some people are trying to put the entire reinsurance market on the blockchain? I mean, it’s just right. It’s everywhere. Yeah, you know, can we put a $3 trillion market onto the blockchain is a lot of project that requires not just the regulatory support, but people with a deep understanding about how the cogs work in the back end or insurance through to the right, or the people are just like, how do we convince the insurer to pay to cover somebody per mile when they might in the UK, by the way, you could have like 100 million pound liability, and the insurer is going to be taking three pence a mile. How do you how do we convince them to try this? Because every commercial bone in their body? So this is, this is ridiculous? How do we get we get that kind of face? Some of the things we have to do are very much about relationship. Building. trust

Gene Tunny  11:39

building. Yeah, gotcha. Okay. So there’s a lot of innovation there. Can I ask about, like, you talked about the data and prediction or data and predictive models, you’re not doing things the same way that they used to be done? You’ve got a lot of these firms have got new models, they’re using the data, there’s AI, or machine learning, or whatever it is, what what do you mean, by the way that things used to be done? And what are some examples of how they’re being done better?

Stephen Brittain  12:09

characterise in the most simplistic terms, the fundamental model of an insurance is historical datasets, like the primacy of the intelligence of an insurance company, is the actuary and the actuarial model. So they can say we can look at population level data of, you know, a million people to work out the likelihood of certain health events happening, for example, fire events, whatever it might be, but it’s done on enormous datasets. And I guess, the switch in mindset, the fundamental switching mindset that, you know, is taking some time because everything’s been based on that scale of empirical evidence is that we’re now shifting to a more dynamic view of risk. Which is, you know, that that may have been the case for the last 50 years, but you know, the increased frequency of weather events, doesn’t doesn’t tell him that the the ability of people to change their risk, because they’d be made aware of it. If I told you that, if you lost five stone, you’d live 10 more years, there’s no doubt that that conversation isn’t included in any insurance policy that you’ve got right now. Whereas if we had more of a dynamic thing, and we were working together, I could, I could really be a behavioural part of your behavioural change. I hope you don’t mind me picking on you, I can barely see through this tiny little camera. So that wasn’t anything personal. But it’s but it’s the idea of this thing being but being a much more dynamic and aware conversation about risk. And I say conversation and see, it’s the ability for both sides of the equation to understand their actions. And their risk implications. And the pricing that comes with it. And the transparency is, you know, we’re starting to see a very different relationship between the insurer and the customer. Because what we’re, what we’re saying is, if you do this, this is what the outcome will be. And, you know, that takes time. And that’s caught deeply embedded culturally in the insurance sector, that is historical data. Whereas we talked with, you know, digital businesses, digital native businesses who say, but we’ve radically changed our business in the last three years. In fact, our premises are three times bigger, and our staff counts doubled what it was last year. Why are we still paying the same? Yeah, I mean, just that stuff, in very practical terms, is to you we can all find examples in our own lives, our lives to change, but our relationship with our insurance just become is this all historical thing. So I think that’s the fundamental shift in in the way we’re thinking now, it’s data and allied engagement around risk and awareness, a risk means it opens up new possibilities for us to take on some of the really difficult risks in the world and see if we can tame them a little bit. it, okay,

Gene Tunny  15:00

and what’s the an example does one come to mind where that’s been done by one of your businesses,

Stephen Brittain  15:06

I’ve got too many examples, but I’ll give you an example that is a big shift in thinking so. So flood is one of the biggest risk classes in the world, certainly when it comes in, in the world. So we we have, most contact most listeners will be aware of in terms of either a domestic level or a local community level. And it’s just becoming a, you know, at a national government responsibility level is becoming unmanageable, it’s a risk to the point where there are entire regions that have been refused flood, because it’s not inherently viable. You have, you’re more likely to have a conversation now with an engineer, if you live in a high risk zone that saying, We can’t insure you you’re on your own, or you’re gonna have to really, you’re gonna have to rethink where we where we build and what we do. So that becomes a bit of an end game for the insurance because no charity, there’s the idea is to try and smooth things and, and work on large numbers so that we can take the risk, but if it’s certainty in large numbers, you just, that’s just there’s no insurance model in the world, that will that will cover it. But the some of the solutions emerging are in our in the there’s a case study called flood flash, and you could find on our website, or go to their website and flash flood flash. And they’ve used a mechanism called a parametric, which is an event, the glossary of terms, it’s event based. So in the event that I’ll give you a very real example, in the, in the event that the water level goes over one metre, we will pay you $1 million damages, full stop, and no more. And we’ll pay you in six hours. That is entirely, you know, that conversation alone that statement. So historically, that statement would have been, yes, your coverage for flood. And yeah, we cover it for everything, and then the flood happens. But the reality of that moment is that it’ll probably take three to six months to have some kind of Loss Adjuster come and check what’s been damaged and where it’s been damaged. And that will be corroborated between a public and a private valuation team. At some point or another, something will be agreed. But the reality of of, you know, when you’re certainly dealing with small businesses, that that period of three to six months is enough time for that business to go bust. So basically, if you’re not up and running within this something like 10 days and 95% of businesses never bounce back. So floods been around since, you know, since the dawn of the dawn of man, and well before that says no, I think there’s a reference for you to know her in a discussion. And here we have a segment a small business segment that have been given some choices. So up to a metre, I could afford to pay that. So what happens to everybody under the metre, I’ve got to take the risk on it. All right, start thinking in smart about risk. Maybe I’ll lift all the cabling up, maybe I’ll take the expensive IT stuff in the server room, which I’ve some reason built on the ground floor. And I’ll put it on the second floor. Maybe I just have to sort of partly take ownership of some of this risk and think a bit smarter about how we live in this space. Because this alternative really works for us because in six days, I don’t know what the money we’d need to keep running. And we would just we’d have continuity, which is the only thing that really matters to us, because nobody wants to go through this this situation. Now, that is a principle can be applied to 1000 categories. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  19:02

And where’s flood flash operating is this in the UK?

Stephen Brittain  19:06

What tends to happen is we we pile a wheel well, we often pile it in the U. K, because we’ve just got some some opportunities to try small new experiments here. But they’re in Florida. So we they piloted in the counties of England when we had lots of floods around the time we were there lots of time to practice. And they’ve they’ve recreated a base in Florida and urinals on you. And they’re also looking at Yeah, I mean, we’ve got a team, our own team in ours. And we’re also talking about doing some planets that too.

Gene Tunny  19:36

Oh, good because I’m in Brisbane and Brisbane is notorious for flooding. We’ve had some major floods. I mean, we’ve had well, I was in Yeah, I was caught up in one in 2011. And then we had one a couple of years ago there was a famous one in 1974 yet where we were used to them and up north. We’ve got cyclones and there’s a big problem with insurance. And then it’s really costly. There are concerns that people won’t get coverage. So that’s why I was really interested in talking to you. And just seeing I mean, you’re just learning about this tech and like, to what extent are these? Can we get around some of these problems? Can we make sure that people can get affordable insurance? Because it’s a Yeah, it’s a really big, big policy issue here.

Stephen Brittain  20:25

But it’s also coming from the beyond. Can we afford it? You know, that I’m really trying to move the conversation to say, can we just be a bit smarter about how we think about risk? And can we embed that into everything? Like, even when the guy comes around to instal the server? And he looks here and says, seriously, you want me to put it on the ground floor? Why don’t you just says, And that conversation should be happening all the time now?

Gene Tunny  20:47

Yeah, absolutely. I agree with you there on this flood flash? I mean, I know that they’re probably they’ve got proprietary technology, of course, but can you give us a flavour of I mean, what are they doing differently? From what traditional? I mean, you mentioned they got this, this special type of insurance, but are they doing more sophisticated modelling? Are they got better data that other insurers all

Stephen Brittain  21:14

over the world? They’re really a tech provider to insurance, okay. They’re a broker in that sense, where they are the intermediary to client and insurer. And I mean, the the neat bit of it, they have a device bolts on the wall. So that one metre conversation I mentioned to you before happens around, where do you want me to stick the device, which is the trigger, that triggers the payment effectively, when it gets wet? The money lands in the bank account very basically. But, and behind that, is some very clever, like 3d, a three dimensional risk map that sort of said, so if I were, if I came to your office now gene and said, I’d be able to pull out a device, a quotation does it and say, right, this is where I’m standing. Yeah, risk this height. This is the price I can give you per month for putting the sensor right here on the basis of this payment of this price. So it is what they call their simply three dimensional pricing model, which is proprietary to them. And the device that is able to you can imagine all the IP and device that you can’t throw money in the water on a million dollars that goes in your bank account, before any of your listeners are thinking about it. They spent the first year trying to work out all the different ways that they could stop that event happening and corroborate it from other sources and things so that they could be that they could be as good as their promise to pay out

Gene Tunny  22:38

instantly. Yeah, okay. And some other businesses I saw on there’s a good video on your website. I’ll put a link in the show notes. You talk about OB, sir, is that which do which is insurance for? Is it for farmers. And then there’s Medusa if, if I remember correctly in health care. Can you tell us a little bit about those two players? The

Stephen Brittain  22:58

first one is easier b I don’t even reduce the reason that we got a name change or something. He

Gene Tunny  23:02

seemed maybe I misheard it or miss Ross. Obviously, I thought it was Medusa. I could have misheard it. But I watched your video. Let it go. Do you mind if I borrow it? That sounds

Stephen Brittain  23:15

good if you turn turn people into stone.

Gene Tunny  23:17

Yeah, actually, I’m not sure if it is a good diet for health care and health insurance company. I’ve probably been hurt. But yeah, the

Stephen Brittain  23:26

arthritic suffers. So the first one, Ibiza is, is particularly I mean, we say farming but I think the business is particularly interesting about it is that it’s a really decentralised smallholder farming. So this is the hardest bit about it isn’t solving the farming problem it was solving how do you how do you help a million farmers who are distributed across you know, the plains of India, Africa, to to be both, you need to be able to mitigate and also benefit from insurance. And typically, these groups don’t have insurance. They don’t have any protection whatsoever. And as we all know, or if both of you know that 70% of the world’s food supply comes from people like this. This is our the big secret of global food is it’s coming from these millions and millions of smallholder farmers who are providing the grains and the milk and this is all assembled through cooperatives and local you know local assembly points, aggregators, until it eventually finds itself into the supply chains of Nestle’s and Heineken beers and all the other local brands that you all know and love into your veggie mind somewhere along the line. Not to push on the stereotype to are there. But they say what’s clever about a visa is that they found firstly, they found a way to get to that kind of last mile. So they’ve been with so that they are having conversations with farmers. And they’re picking up their seed. In fact, they’re helping embed technology into the seed itself to give a greater flood of resistance, flood frost resistance. They are dealing with the local cooperative groups to enable them to come together and work as communities who could be all insured against things in a local life. So if you have a heatwave, and there are 1000, farmers affected by it all can benefit from the same cooperative cover. And it is an it is a wonderful thing about the traditional side of insurances. I kind of the way that it can neutralise groups together, that are fragmented, is that you can assemble communities otherwise, you know, possibly aren’t connected. And it’s meant that a very small tech team called IBC, who are based in Luxembourg, with a couple of people on the ground in India, are able to provide the protection around, they’ve just passed. I think that passing 300,000 separate farms at the moment, from a small group based in Luxembourg, that we’ve been backing, right? And they are, they’ve got some amazing statistics of you don’t understand the scale of this stuff. I’m getting carried away and excited about it. But they when they explained the project, project, hot cow, I think they’ve named it something clever a sense, but we’ve made us all laugh. Yeah, but he does it when you get a heatwave. And the case study was in India, it spoils the milk, they literally just cooks the milking the cow. And waste it’s, it’s just a waste. And we asked what’s the scale of it because you know, we live in the UK and this stuff is feels quite like it could be quite manageable. In a quite robust supply chain we have, they waste as much milk in a day as we consume in a year. So this is like one a heatwave days is enough to like, really damage a local economy. And to disrupt the value chain into a group like Nestle making a yoghurt or something. I mean, as an example, there are many different groups. So they were they’re putting in the, the, they’re able through their direct link now with the farmer to send them an SMS message and you know, warn them look for shade, to you know, do different behaviour and things that come you know, unexpected events that are coming, they can take out, they can give them some buffer, but also they can, they can create a payment that will go through the community, to the farmer and help them so why because when this all goes really wrong, you’ve got a humanitarian crisis. This is a point of economic migrants and all sorts of problems when the weather gets just too untenable for those those farmers. So I think that’s a series of examples are just highly fragmented markets. And the lessons we’ve taken from that have come back and forth and things like micro scooter projects and things that we were looking at where we the other fragmented markets and the technologies and models been deployed there. So it’s been a really good way of us understanding decentralised models.

Gene Tunny  28:02

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  28:36

Now back to the show. Yeah, I like this. So I think that those stories you’ve told, you’re talking about how well with the Insure tech, there’s elements of mitigation, or it’s helping mitigate risks, and that’s helping reduce the cost of insurance, it’s helping make new insurance products available, it’s getting, it’s getting the person insured, involved in trying to manage the risk and therefore have, you know, lower cost of insurance. So I think that does that that’s that’s sort of what a that’s, is that correct? That’s them on the right track there.

Stephen Brittain  29:14

Just just a more holistic view of an open and transparent view of risk. And that I mean, when you there’s another there’s another aspect to this, which is very much a developing world conversation. But the third challenge, we sort of we, I feel like I get way too involved with some of these businesses as an observer and supporter. Some of the first challenges they’ve they’ve had to encounter is a total lack of trust with the insurance sector in the first place. Because every day we’ll have somebody’s cousin or brother that didn’t get the money they were promised. And it was you know, for some pizza small print or something. So that what they now have is their you know, that these insurtechs that were that was supporting. I’ve got so For a good relationship with the, with the community that is really changing their way their thinking, in fact, we’re trying to lose the word insurance, in many cases is really holding us back. Because they’re getting a text message to say, who should we send the money to? And they’re sending into the wires, because it’s more likely to get to the community in the family then sending into the farm, you know, as in they’re really thinking through Yeah, how to make this as a sustainable community. Because, you know, in the past, it could have been that the money was sent there. But nobody actually said so. And they disappeared with it. And there’s been all sorts of history, stories of black market around payouts of insurance and things so we’re able to solve so many problems with this. Great.

Gene Tunny  30:41

And did you say Are they in? Did you say they’re in the Netherlands? They were they based in Luxembourg? Sorry. Yeah. Excellent. Yeah.

Stephen Brittain  30:50

Not in the scheme of things for you. It’s, it’s a short car drive.

Gene Tunny  30:54

Okay, that’s, that’s fascinating what they’re doing. Right? Can I ask, what does this all mean for the whole global insurance industry? Because, I mean, we’re used to some, you know, like in Australia, we have Suncorp. And then I know that these insurers, they, you know, they get reinsured for the risk that so there’s a big global market, there’s there’s some big players in that. What does all of this mean for that market? What is the scope for disruption?

Stephen Brittain  31:23

Being? That’s a big question. I love the bits that I Yes, most humbly the bits that I am excited about. I’ll start there. But yeah, I think it means from a positive truth disruption perspective, I think it means that we are we right now we’re characterising new trillion dollar asset classes that I think couldn’t have been characterised in cash before. So who knew that milk yield in India was an asset class, who knew that the, the exclusion of flood could turn into an asset class, you know, in the protection of some of those business, a risk base that we can now cover? So I think it’s what we’re turning problems into commercial new opportunities. So for me, it says growth, growth growth, by solving real problems. So I think that for me, the positive disruption is, we can hold our heads up high and say that we can innovate in a way that’s genuinely solves problems and genuinely has a commercial case to it. And will further the progress of innovators and pioneers to solve some of the things that are ahead of us, that insurers should be working hand in glove with pioneers of renewable energy have ways of solving for floods, and all sorts of other catastrophes. And we are absolutely part of the Innovators Toolkit. So that’s my comfort zone speaking to that. So it speaks to purpose. And the next generation of talent entering the insurance market are going to want to hear their businesses are supporting these kinds of ideas, because they’re reading about it from their friends and hearing about it. These kinds of ideas should be should be played at a grander scale. Yeah, the other side of the disruption to it is it’s really quite hard to, for any business industrialised itself 200 years ago, in terms of its scale operation to take. Yeah, so I guess what it really the there’s a there’s a massive amount of legacy in the insurance sector. And the bigger conversation for all of us is trying to work out how to scale some of these businesses using the mitre the insurance sector, as the as the insurance industry rather than just boring their models. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  33:38

yeah, I guess what I’m interested in is whether will there be complete disruption and mean some of these new insurer tech companies will take over and the old sort of insurance giants, they’re, they’re the dinosaurs, they’re going to die off because one of the interesting things you said on the climate confident podcast is if you look at something like Uber, well, it wasn’t in transport or Airbnb, it wasn’t in hotels, these are new businesses that have just completely disrupted the existing markets and taken, you know, taken over a lot of them. And it’s, you know, it’s been, it’s been bad news for a lot of the traditional players. So I’m wondering is insurer tech like this? Is that Is that what we’re gonna see? What I

Stephen Brittain  34:23

mean by take Uber as an example, it’s a really good example. But Uber don’t make cars that has been done and who knew that booking and instant availability of cars would be better it is worth now 50 100 billion pound company, when they when they started, what were they disrupt where they would, they were just disrupting the behaviour of us going out sticking your arm up? As far as I understand, and it was just more about the instant availability of vehicles for us. And so in that sense, it was a positive disruption. It was consumer first they really thought about what consumers wanted. But what they didn’t do As the automobile, they replaced the inconvenience of trying to get hold of a car and you needed a car.

Gene Tunny  35:05

Yeah. And

Stephen Brittain  35:07

obviously, it had an impact on the incumbent taxi firms and other aspects. But now they’re they’re starting to use those same systems themselves. So it was a, it ran ahead of the system. I guess why I went to the efforts to labour there is because that certainly the error I’m looking at, which is at the top of the funnel, when and where the customer need is, I think we’re just finding really good ways of engaging with customers and giving them kind of propositions that they want, whether they be a man in the street or business, in threat of wildfire, or, you know, a government worrying about flood. They’re just groups of people that are able to go in with a new set of tools and really understand risk better. What does that then mean to the I mean, when you go into the insurance sector, what they’re really good at is managing risk, and disinfecting really risk that that is, you know, the root system of insurance. And that doesn’t, you know, that’s amazing, that is just as a work of art machine there. You know, and I don’t think we’re really messing around with it, like, we’re not rebuilding the car for the Uber model, or we’re just having people book it. So I think the positive disruption of in for the insurance sector is that we’re given them a new face a new front end. But until routine to get more out of their amazing machine for dissipating and managing risk. And that’s certainly where I, where I have the most enjoyable conversations. I mean, when you do sit in front of an actuary, and they tell you what they do, and how they, and then the way that risk is transferred to that it’s extraordinary. It’s an extraordinary assistance in involving 10s of 1000s of people and trillions of dollars. It’s a very clever mechanism. And I’m not going to party because I couldn’t, I’m not experts enough to do the justice for your listeners. But also, because generally, when you’re dealing, as we do with clients, future clients, what they’re really talking about his use cases, use case as a risk data use case as a risk. And that’s where we really, that’s where we’re really disrupting them every day is a new use case for what we’ve got.

Gene Tunny  37:16

Yeah, gotcha. Okay. As far as I know that, yeah, I’ve seen some innovation in insurance, or I’ve learned about it with because I’ve talked to actuaries that are making use of geo coded data, like in Australia, we’ve got a geo coded address, database, Gene F, geo coded national address file, and that’s been used to help better get more accurate premium estimates, rather than just base a premium on a certain geographic area, you can get really precise on the risks affecting a particular property. So I think that’s really clever. So yeah, I could see the potential for innovation and insurance and offering a wider range of products and hopefully, cheaper products, and also getting the consumers involved in trying to mitigate some of those risks. And so yeah, it’s, it’s fascinating. I guess, one thing I’d like to, I’d like to ask to, to, you know, because we’re getting close to wrapping up, this will probably be the final, final thing. So because I think, yeah, this has been, there’s been a lot and a lot to think about, and I’m gonna have to explore it. A bit more. You talked about, in your bio, it talks about your seeking founders to de risk climate innovation to put fairness back into tech. What do you mean by de risking climate innovation, and I suppose what I’d be interested in for thinking about Australia and thinking about the challenges we face in the north, in particular with the risk of cyclones, and there’s concerns about climate change, and, you know, elevated temperatures, and all of that is, is there really the prospect of that we will be able to insure against these risks? Or is it or your, or will we have to mitigate it? I mean, we have to mitigate them in some way. But does that mean that, you know, some people actually, there has to be out migration from some of these regions? Is that one of the signals that that will be sent by insurance? I mean, how are you thinking about that? So, yeah, I guess on de risking climate innovation first will be good that those those other thoughts were just, you know, things I’ve been thinking about, but if you’ve got any reactions to them, I’d appreciate them. It’s

Stephen Brittain  39:38

some I’ll take it a bit at a time. Yeah, there’s quite a lot. And I’ll put it this way I would, I need a few hours to think about.

Gene Tunny  39:45

Sorry, I just started riffing on started thinking about de risking climate innovation. But yeah, please go ahead.

Stephen Brittain  39:52

I think it’s, I think, if I break it down, so the question one might be, how do we help climate innovate tools? theory says yes. So I, you know, if I, if we were to meet a group trying to distribute some more wind farms at a local level, they’re going to have some common challenges that if they were solar farms or some other kind of decarbonize, sequestering some neat bit of tech, that’s got a chance to scale and be a proper scale up solution, they’re probably likely, they’re probably going through a bit of a flat period at some point, because their technology is proven they got there, but they just haven’t got enough. They just haven’t got enough data, bind them, this thing working. They’ve got developer risks, they’ve got licencing risks, they’ve got all sorts of unknowns that are coming towards them, like, will this thing work? And how well will it work? What kind of yield? Or will I get from my solar panel as much as what I get from my cows milk in India, I mean, these are the same, the licence the development and the operational risk. And in many cases, this is just there’s just not enough time that’s passed, for anybody with a kind of an insurance historical mindset to look at it and go, we know what to do here. So I think we can help the insurer, the insurer tech group. And I’m also looking to your audience, for people who are in the prediction space forecasters and their predictive model designers and various other groups who, who think, who think in a different mindset to this, which is, we have to, we have to move to a new kind of thinking that says this will probably work within a given tolerance. And we need to find ways of unlocking these innovations by saying, yes, we’ll cover your development risk. And yes, we’ll cover your yield reveal the intangibles of your idea, we will guarantee the outputs of this turbine, this solar farm, why because we’ve done something similar, close enough, because we’re going to take a risk on innovators. Simple as that. So I think that we can help characterise the risk in a way that will help unlock lenders, and it will give bring confidence to ideas in that delicate point in growth. And I really, I, personally, and my close team, really want to be an agent to help at that moment to say, I think we can help you get some of these balance sheet, risk off your lender, get some of the developer risk out, get some product, you know, warranty risk, so that you start to look more like a mature product. And we need to do it quickly. Because the world can’t wait for you to do this over 100 years or so is like 50 years for the motorcar, we’re gonna have to do this over the next three to five years, because you’ve got a scale business to build, and you’ve got some urgency to it. So I think we can work in, in partnership with part, you know, with various pioneers of technologies, to help them to try and run as fast as they are in, in, in proving out their model is robust enough to scale and replicate. So if that’s the one that they’re that particularly has grabbed my attention, I think, you know, they need to be working with a group like us to stop that flat patch happening. And I’m actively seeking those groups who have got a hook in market and are looking for those kinds of tools, people that can pay their data and extrapolate and do things with it, and get the insurance are okay. And the various capital providers to take a bit view and say that we should just try a bit more which stretched the model, we don’t have historical data, but we’ve got enough to go. Right. Okay. So that’s my, and why I’m here. And, you know, that’s where I think the biggest potential is. Can you mind me the second part of the question,

Gene Tunny  43:30

what I’m interested in is just what are the prospects? So for regions where they’re threatened by natural disasters like North Queensland with cyclones or various parts of Australia with catastrophic bushfires when we had a huge I mean, you probably saw it on the news that 2019 bushfires were half of the east coast was on fire. I mean, it’s just apocalyptic. And you know, when the smoke would, would come into the capital cities, like, what’s the like, is insurer tech a way to help us manage those risks and to provide better insurance products? I mean, how do you see because because that’s what’s really concerning people here. Yeah.

Stephen Brittain  44:15

I think I mean, the first answer to your question, the main answer, yes, yes, yes, this is doing it in my view, because you know, it’s just getting more frequent and the losses are getting bigger. So we’re going to get into this in a different way. We can’t just say, big surprise, here comes another one, instead of being a $17 billion payout is a $22 billion payout, you know, whatever it’s going to be, we can’t just save up for that event and just keep paying out for it. That’s just daft. So we need so it needs to be and I of course I also read the stories of ideas of burying the cabling and the various thoughts of ignition points when it comes to the fire or, you know, larger protective walls against Danvers rivers bursty. And we can put all those kinds of defences in which is very, very costly and requires quite a lot of planning and saving up and all the reasons it takes forever to do. And I think in that equation of all the physical things we can do that for us, we could cut down and things as a software thing we can do, there’s a tech thing we can do. And that tech thing is to, is to see the risk, understand it and translate that to the key stakeholders that connect and mitigate and prevent. So whether that means the school kids are aware of the farm or aware of their own responsibility about their first cigarette, they haven’t 15, whatever it is, I’ve been, yeah, I mean, there’s just a general consciousness about my own actions. And what happens through to the way we build and where we build just becomes more common, because it’s the only way we could take on something as biblical and also apocalyptic in scale. If we’re just really designing that kind of resilience, and the only way you can do that is a very clear understanding about on an individual and business level. What can I do? What parts can I play to reduce the risk here? Because I can’t go head to head with it anymore. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  46:10

yeah. Just on that, like, I like what you were, you were saying there just reminded me, I will probably have to get wrap this up soon. Sorry. But I just want to mention, there’s a firm that there’s a firm that, well, you reminded me when we were talking about this in terms of using data and better managing risks. And there’s a company ind technology, which I’ve done some work for, which is they have these devices that they put onto power lines in rural areas, and that will detect whether there’s a fault that electrical fault, and that signals, okay, you got to do some maintenance on this power line on these power lines. So that doesn’t later cause a bushfire because least one of the major fires in the Black Saturday fires in Victoria 2009 was caused by these rural power lines, fault, you know, basically, you know, braking, and although you know, problems with the power line, and then causing a fire. So, that’s some really interesting tech that’s using some interesting, you know, data acquisition and software to analyse it to send that signal. So I think that’s an example of that, too. It’s

Stephen Brittain  47:24

a great example and transfer. And we get a lot of pitches from people who think about devices to put into the, into that risk problem generally, whether it’d be putting ice into a, into a house for a leaky washing machine, or putting something into somebody’s watch to anticipate a stroke or a heart condition. I mean, these, this kind of advanced sensing is very clear, one of the the assumptions that people make is that the insurer will pay for it. But somehow that makes sense, because they’re the ones that will pay out. And that assumption is quite hard to, to explain. But in the case you just described, it’s I’m guessing, and guessing that the insurer put in an exemption and then the power company had to do it, had to instal it as opposed to the insurer paid for it.

Gene Tunny  48:09

Or will this technology would have to be brought in by the the, like the power utilities, they have to instal it on their their network? So yeah, there is an issue about how it’s paid for. And that’s something that, you know, the the company has been thinking about, for sure. So I’ll put a link to the the study that I did for that company on the in the show notes, so people can check it out. Stephen has been terrific. I pick your brain on quite a few issues. And I think there’s a bigger, you know, some really bigger philosophical economic issues about insurance and, and the future of insurance and the future of how we adapt to climate change and all of these catastrophic risks. But we’ll probably have to say that for another conversation. Is there anything else before we wrap up this time?

Stephen Brittain  48:58

He’s up for being so curious Jean, what can I say? Thank you. I appreciate the you know, you put me to test on some very open questions about the space. Very good. Well, yeah, and I wouldn’t Yeah, I would like to add the I mean, I’m really wanted to speak on you know, to you and your to listen your to your listeners, because I’m looking for great people to work with. Whether you are a rising star climate innovator and you’re now recognising either that you need to remove some risk and manage the risks within your current business. You know, we want to work with you as your kind of pilot partner, whether you’re a brand new startup tech modelling forecasting person and thinking about the future and got new solution and need a place to incubate your idea, get in touch, or if you’re an insurer, trying to work out or get into this space, come and invest in some of our funds and you can look at a load of stuff, but just get in touch. We will write you a place for most people with with energy to do something with a with a future mindset. You’re

Gene Tunny  49:59

in luck. And then you’re looking all over the world for opportunities. And Australia.

Stephen Brittain  50:02

We’ve got the team and team in London. And yeah, we operate in. Hana, you sent me a note, is it 98 countries? But yeah, there’s projects going everywhere. But we genuinely we look to where we can start fast and then scale later. So we’re open to all.

Gene Tunny  50:18

Excellent. Okay, Steven Britton from insurer tech gateway. Thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed the conversation. And I certainly learned a lot about this great new field of insurer tech. So thanks so much. It’s been great.

Stephen Brittain  50:32

It’s been a pleasure, Jean. Many thanks, indeed.

Gene Tunny  50:36

rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting outlets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

51:23

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

How Good was Adam Smith? 4 Tax Maxims from 250 Years Ago that are Still Fresh – EP239

This episode delves into Adam Smith’s four maxims of taxation and examines their relevance in today’s economic environment. Host Gene Tunny explores the balance between efficiency and equity, discussing historical perspectives and contemporary debates, such as the proposed billionaire tax.

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

What’s covered in EP239

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • Important taxation principles. (5:33)
  • Taxation principles and maxims from Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations”. (13:19)
  • Wealth inequality and proposed taxes on billionaires. (20:30)
  • A classically liberal perspective from Simon Cowan. (28:33)
  • Taxation principles, including horizontal and vertical equity, convenience, and efficiency. (33:29)
  • Taxation and its impact on economic activity. (41:19)
  • Adverse impacts of high taxes: example from Australia’s tobacco industry. (47:54)
  • Wrap up of taxation principles from Adam Smith’s “Wealth of Nations.” (54:04)

Takeaways

  1. Adam Smith’s maxims of taxation remain highly relevant, advocating for efficiency, equity, certainty, and convenience in tax systems.
  2. Contemporary tax debates often reflect a trade-off between efficiency (minimizing economic distortions) and equity (ensuring fairness across different income groups and treating similar people in the same way).
  3. The episode highlights the potential adverse consequences of high taxation, such as reduced economic growth and black markets and organized crime.
  4. Discussions on billionaire taxes illustrate ongoing disagreements about how to design tax systems that balance economic incentives and equity.
  5. The taxation principles discussed are essential for understanding governmental approaches to raising revenue while minimizing negative economic impacts.

Links relevant to the conversation

Recent episode with Dan Mitchell on US debt:

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/04/17/is-uncle-sam-running-a-ponzi-scheme-with-the-national-debt-w-dr-dan-mitchell-ep235

Episode featuring Simon Cowan on tax:

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/02/23/the-tax-reform-debate-cutting-through-the-spin-w-simon-cowan-cis-ep228

Episode with Miranda Stewart on Billionaire and inheritance taxes:

https://economicsexplored.com/2021/11/06/ep112-taxing-the-rich-billionaire-and-inheritance-taxes

Episode with Steve Rosenthal on Tax rules benefiting tech titans and hedge fund managers:

https://economicsexplored.com/2021/11/22/ep114-tax-rules-benefiting-tech-titans-and-hedge-fund-managers

Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations: Books IV-V: 

https://www.amazon.com.au/Wealth-Nations-Books-IV-V/dp/0140436154

One of Dan Mitchell’s posts at International Liberty on adverse impact of taxation on economic growth:

https://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2018/03/10/new-imf-study-shows-u-s-would-benefit-from-lower-tax-rates-and-less-government-spending

Transcript: How Good was Adam Smith? 4 Tax Maxims from 250 Years Ago that are Still Fresh – EP239

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Dan Mitchell  00:03

Now I’m never one to say, Oh, you raised this tax or that tax, there’s going to be a recession. I worry worry about if you raised this stature that tax in the long run growth rate will decline. And even if it only declines a small amount, maybe two tenths of 1% a year that has massive long run implications because of the wedge effect.

Gene Tunny  00:32

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host, Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, and welcome to the show. This episode, it’s just me, there’s no guest, I’m going to talk about one of the issues that I’ve been covering in the book that I’m writing. So over the last few months other than my business other than this podcast, the thing that’s really occupied my time has been this book. So I’ve been working on this book. It’s titled government budget analysis principles for policy. So this was a book that Tony Macon and I proposed to Routledge, which is a major international academic publisher. And we got an agreement to, to write the book. But if you’re a listener to this podcast, and you know that I had Tony, on my show, we talked about the pandemic stimulus. And then I had Alex Robson on in white 2021 to just talk about the terrible news that that Tony had, died, unexpectedly died suddenly, at age 67. And, yeah, I mean, huge blow. We’re about to start working on the book. And I didn’t know whether I’d be able to go through with it. But people like Alex and also Fabrizio come and Yanni, who’s a professor of giveth now at Griffith University, where tiny was and now Fabrizio is over at University of Southern Queensland. They encouraged me to continue on with a book and that’s what I’ve been doing. And I’m going to dedicate the book to Tony, for sure. So I’m at the stage where I’m trying to finalise the book, tidy it up getting comments from reviewers, it’s, it’s been a huge effort. If you’ve written the book yourself, then I mean, you’d know just how much work goes into it, and how much work there is just getting it across that finish line. So that’s where I am at the moment. And in researching and writing the book, I’ve come across so much, great material and, and some that I want to share with you. I think there’s some some great stuff that I’ve learned along the way. And what I want to talk about today is taxation and how we determine what a good tax system looks like, what are those principles for taxation? So, I mean, tax is something we all grumble about. It’s, I mean, particularly at tax time, I mean, it’s, it can be very trying. But ultimately, you know, it’s inevitable as what do they say about the only two things that are inevitable in life are death and taxes, we need taxes to pay for the public services? And there are, I don’t know exactly who said this, but there’s that quote that taxes are the price we pay for civilization. And there’s something to that, I suppose. There are other perspectives, of course, that I’ll talk about a bit later a bit is the libertarian perspective, the extreme libertarian perspective that taxation is theft. That’s another way of looking at it. But generally, I think most economists, or the vast majority of economists would recognise that we need taxes to pay for government services. As. On the other hand, if we resort to money printing, we essentially pay taxes and other way we pay the inflation tax. That’s, that’s perhaps a bit tangential to this discussion. And I have talked about that before. The main point is that taxes are inevitable. And we should be thinking about principles for having a well, a well designed tax system. There’s a great quote that was attributed to the finance minister for Louie, the 14th of France. I think John Baptiste Colbert and the way he described it, and I’m not going to get these words. Exactly. Well, in any case, they would have been in French. And will which I’m not going to try to quote, The basically said that the art of taxation is basically trying to pluck a goose to get the maximum quantity of feathers for the least amount of hissene. And, to this day, I don’t think anyone’s really described the process of taxation, or what governments are trying to do with taxation with in such a clear, and brilliant, why I mean, it’s a great way to describe it. It’s very illustrative of what the process involves. So we’re essentially trying to tax the population in an efficient way, also an equitable way, as we’ll talk about soon, it’s a way that’s going to prevent a lot of hissing because either a tax is too burdensome, or it’s seen as unfair, it’s seen as inequitable. And, to this day, that’s the way that political scientists economists tend to think about taxation. economists talk about the main principles of a tax system or the main goals of a tax system. Depending on which economists you ask or which textbook you read, there might be three or four different principles, or there could be five in some cases, but generally, the major ones are efficiency. So there’s widespread agreement that the collection of taxes has to be efficient. And that encompasses various different things, which we’ll talk about in a moment. And it also has to be equitable. And there are two types of equity. There is horizontal equity, which is we treat similar people in the same way. So there’s no arbitrary taxation. The government doesn’t tax its political enemies more than the people that likes there’s equity and in that way, and then another concept of equity. And this can be controversial, which we’ll talk about in a moment, is vertical equity, which is probably what we probably first think of when we think of this concept of equity or fairness. It’s about people who have a greater ability to pay a greater capacity to pay, they contribute more, so they pay a higher tax rate. So the wealthy attacks more than the poor. And so I think a lot of people when they think of equity, they probably think along those lines. Okay, so they’re the major ones that economists talk about. Sometimes I’ll add in simplicity, as another principle, I tend to think of simplicity as part of the whole efficiency of the tax system story. So the big, the big items are efficiency and equity, the two different components of equity. And usually what we find or often what we find is that there’s a trade off there’s a, there can be a trade off between efficiency and equity. That’s when you have the really difficult policy decisions. Arthur Oaken, who was a a famous American macro economist. He was Lyndon Johnson’s chair for his Council of Economic Advisers. He talked about that big trade off between equity and efficiency. So that’s something that will come up in taxation, such as debates over consumption taxes, increasing the consumption tax. consumption tax might be an efficient tax, it might be better than income tax, for example, but it is regressive. If you’re on a to lower income, then you’re proportionally spending more of your total income on consumption items, then someone who’s wealthy who’s saving a lot. So there’s a trade off there. I mean, that’s one of the big issues that comes up in taxation, these these trade offs. Okay. Now, what I want to go over this episode in particular on tax having, you know, provided that background on how economists are thinking about it, is what Adam Smith, what the father of economics, thought about tax. And as happens in economics, we find that a lot of these, these principles that we talk about, that we that we espouse many of them, go back to Adam Smith, to 1776, to the Wealth of Nations. Now, not everything’s in Adam Smith, of course, I mean, there are insights, great insights from later economists such as Ricardo Keynes, Milton Friedman, but there is so much that is in Adam Smith is just extraordinary. It’s if you haven’t read Wealth of Nations, I thoroughly recommend you grab yourself a copy of Wealth of Nations, there’s, it’s generally in two different volumes as volumes 123, which is where most of the famous passages from says stuff about invisible hand, etc. But then there’s also volumes, four to five, and it’s in the book four to five, and it’s in book five, where the principles of taxation aren’t they’re the ones I’m going to talk about today. Now, just on the importance of Adam Smith, I mean, if we go to John Kenneth Galbraith, it’s the age of uncertainty which is one of those great books on the history of economics. Now Galbraith, as a, as someone with Scottish ancestry, he saw a connection with Adam Smith and Adam Smith was, of course, one of the the intellectual giants of the so called Scottish Enlightenment in the 18th century. And Galbraith wrote, The Greatest of Scotchman was the first economist, Adam Smith. Economists do not have a great reputation for agreeing with one another. But on one thing, there is wide agreement. If economics has a Founding Father, it is Smith. And there’s absolute truth in that I mean, Galbraith absolutely nailed that there have been economists often will will argue, but there is general agreement that, you know, Adam Smith was, was the founder was the greatest. It didn’t have the same analytical conceptual apparatus that Alfred Marshall and later economists had. But there was just, there’s just so much wisdom in Adam Smith, it’s, it’s extraordinary going back to it nearly 250 years later. So it’s absolutely extraordinary. And the what I, what I uncovered when I, when I was working on this book, because I was writing a chapter on tax policy. So it’s the fourth chapter in this, this book on writing. And I remembered are these taxation principles. We owe them to Adam Smith diet, we all they were inspired by Adam Smith, I vaguely recall that from something I read, or a lecture I went to a couple of decades ago, now. And it made me seek out the fifth book of the Wealth of Nations. And there’s the, in the section in part two of taxes under the sources of revenue, we have Adam Smith, lay out these four Maxim’s as he calls them of taxation, which, arguably, are still as you know, as relevant today as they were in the 1770s. And they’re just so descriptive. And you can you can see the connections between what Adam Smith laid out here and these principles of a good tax system that I was talking about before, equity, the two different types of equity, horizontal and vertical and efficiency. So without further ado, we might get into Adam Smith’s maxims of taxation. Now, I won’t read all of them all. Well, I won’t read all of the passages in the book, but I’ll just give you the, the headlines. Because I definitely encourage you to, to get a copy of the Wealth of Nations. Okay, so number one, maximum one, the subjects of every state ought to contribute towards the support of the government as nearly as possible, in proportion to their respective abilities, that is in proportion to the revenue, which they respectively enjoy. Under the protection of the state, the expensive government to the individuals of a great nation is like the expense of management to the joint tenants of a greater state, who are all obliged to contribute in proportion to their respective interests in the estate. Right, oh, so that is essentially the vertical equity principle, you can think of it that way. You should contribute in proportion. So it says, contributed in proportion to the revenue that they respectively enjoy. So in proportion to your income. Right. So and that’s, that’s Maxim number one. Now, I think that’s interesting, the way that Adam Smith, the first thing he puts down as a principle, it does relate to that, what we would think of as the vertical equity principle, it’s not efficiency. So generally, when we’re whenever I talk about the principles of taxation, or when public finance economists generally talk about them, they would generally put efficiency first. But I think it’s interesting. I don’t know whether to make too much of that. I’m not a Smith scholar, maybe I’ll look further into that. I just find that interesting that he’s put equity as the the first principle. And this issue of equity is, I mean, it’s it’s at the heart of a lot of the the tax debates that were that we’re having now. And I just saw a couple of months ago, there’s talk about how the Biden administration had Biden’s reelected. Now. I mean, who knows? I think it seems pretty close. I mean, Trump’s just a political phenomenon. No one’s seen any anything like him in the past is just incredible. Just just the I mean, he’s just got some sort of political skills that are, you know, hard to hard to comprehend. I mean, he clearly could win again, there’s no doubt about that. He is embattled now with all of these lawsuits. But given what we’ve seen in the past, I mean, I, it’s very possible he could win. So I mean, who knows. But if Biden wins, he’s saying that there could be a billionaire tax. So I think this is something that we’re talking about a few years ago, Elizabeth Warren called for it. And CNBC reported in March 2024, outlining his 25 budget proposals on Monday Biden to game at the Uber affluent and reiterated plans for a 25% tax on Americans with a with a wealth of more than $100 million. Okay, so I mean, who knows, they probably would never get a pass through Congress. Perhaps it’s just all political talk. But I guess what it shows is that there is this there is a lot of talk about taxation and the appropriate taxation of of the wealthy and a big debate about whether taxation levels are right or not, or whether Are they too low? Are we taxing the wealthy enough? And particularly in the US, there are concerns about taxation, policy settings around capital gains, there’s this whether it’s a loophole or not, that’s hard to say but there’s the rules around carried interest I talked about with Steve Rosenthal, I think it was from Urban Institute a couple of years ago, and this step up in basis that occurs when we when estates are passed on when the if the when someone dies, someone wealthy and there’s receive the the estate and effectively, there’s no taxation on the capital gains that were that were earned. During the their their benefactors live. So that’s something that is controversial. Hopefully, I’ve described that right. I’ll put a link in the show notes to the Steve Rosenthal episode. Uh, so there’s a lot of discussion about appropriate tax settings. And I had a great conversation with Miranda steward from ASU from Australian National University on this issue of the billionaires tax and talk about inheritance tax and what’s driving it all. And I think she gave a really, really nice, really good explanation of what’s going on. So I might play that for you. Let’s, let’s replay this. This is with Miranda Stewart, this is from about three years ago, I’ll put a link in the show notes.

Miranda Stewart  20:30

But so I suppose we’re observing what’s going on in the US, as we always do here in Australia, and I guess, to some extent elsewhere in the world. So if we think in that context, and then think how might that affect our our ideas about Australian Taxation, the big driver of both the US billionaires tax as it’s been, you know, marketed in the, in the papers. And I guess, by the Democrats, to some extent, is income inequality in the US. And another big driver of the US policy, Democrats policy is wealth inequality. So I guess we should see these two things are related, but they’re not the same. So the US has, probably, among OECD countries, almost the highest income inequality of any OECD country, I mean, there’s a couple of others. Costa Rica is another example. You know, some of the Latin American countries have rather high inequality, Brazil has very high inequality in income. But the US really stands out compared to most developed countries in its income inequality. And the inequality is both at the top, you know, the billionaires have very rich that is they have a lot of income. And at the bottom, poor people are very poor, you know, so you sort of have that extreme. Australia In most in the UK, and most European countries are nowhere near as extreme as that in terms of income inequality, although, of course, we do have some in the US that inequality was sort of trending upward, as well, I suppose, over the last 10 years and 20 years. And of course, the other thing that we’ve seen in the US is, is these billionaires, you know, the the tech boom, and the the tech billionaires, the ones that really stand out, although they’re not the only ones, Bill Gates, you know, on musk, Apple, and, and so on. So, they, the owners of those, those tech companies, of course, are massively rich in ways that none of us perhaps can ever remember being the case in terms of their access to kind of global capital. And these global monopoly markets that they have. Most of their wealth, of course, is not in their own personal hands. It’s in the stock that they hold in their companies. You know, it’s of course, they own that they’re in those shares. And they they’re worth billions, but it’s not income so much as as wealth. So the US billionaires tax, it’s bit it’s a bit mis described, the the Biden proposal is two things. One is that it’s essentially just a higher income tax write to include some amounts of more of income and gain in the income tax in the US. And then the other part of that is to strengthen some of the districts in the USA state tax they do have an estate and gift tax, and there have been lots of proposals in the US for a wealth tax. Gabriel Zucman. refound was famous for proposing an actual kind of accrual wealth tax on the very richest. Right, come back to Australia. Well, I can. Coming back to Australia, of course, we don’t have inheritance taxes, as you said, the Queensland Joe Bill key Peterson started that trend in the late 70s in Queensland, abolishing the Queensland estate and gift duties and we had a classic tax competition reaction to that, within among the states and territories, they all really quickly abolished their estate taxes. And then the feds, you know, with one of those things where with hindsight, probably they shouldn’t have done it. They abolish the federal estate and gift tax, although there was no tax competition issue there. Nonetheless, it was very unpopular tax and it was a political campaign to abolish it. And as we’ve seen more recently, it is possible to abolish unpopular taxes. Federal Governments do do it from time to time. So we have growing wealth inequality, we don’t have quite so much income inequality, although that is growing a little bit but we do have growing wealth inequality and I think that’s why the interest again in these issues.

Gene Tunny  24:51

Okay, so I think that was a really good summary from Miranda as to what’s going on On and it’s why why do we have all of this talk about the billionaires tax and, you know, inheritance taxes now, it’s because of, you know, the the trends we’ve seen in the inequality of wealth. We’ve seen that in the United States. I mean, I mean, that’s really where you see the big, the big increase in wealth inequality. We’ve had some of it in Australia, we haven’t had much of a change in income inequality, or there’s a debate about whether that’s really changed a lot. But definitely, wealth inequality has increased, particularly with, with housing with. I mean, we’ve got, you know, some ridiculous house prices now in Sydney and Melbourne. And now I’ve got young people unable to enter the market, we’ve got a real crisis there, arguably. Now, I guess what I would say about this is that, and this is where it gets tricky is because equity is in the eye of the beholder. So there’s value judgments that that come into it. And I mean, maybe I wouldn’t go so far as to say, a lot of these proposals are motivated by envy or class warfare. So those will often be the criticisms of proposals like that. I mean, you know, in some cases, maybe there’s some truth in it. I wouldn’t go there immediately, I would say the people advocating for them, they have a different way of looking at the world. They have particular values, and they think that well, this is unfair. So it’s what do we see as unfair? So that’s one set of value judgments you could make. Now, another perspective on this is that, that libertarian perspective I was talking about before. So there’s another perspective, and this is, you know, you could say, it’s this taxation is theft perspective. I mean, if you have a presumption in favour of the individual in favour of private property, then you would be very resistant to taxation of any sort, you’d be resistant to, to these moves to have a billionaire’s tax or have a have a heavy inheritance taxes. And, I mean, it could be based on a libertarian argument, or it could also be based on an argument that this is the sort of thing that will stifle entrepreneurship. So we’ll talk a bit about that later. But I want to play a clip from a conversation I had with my colleague at the Centre for independent studies, Simon Cowen earlier this year, Simon is research director at CIS. And you may be aware, I don’t know, it depends on how often you listen to the show. I am a an adjunct Fellow at Centre for independent studies in Sydney. So I’ve had a long association with with CIS. That goes back, g must be this must be the 27th year I’ve had an association with CIS 26 through 27. It’s been a long time. But here’s a clip from my, well, my friend and colleague, Simon Cowell. And so let’s listen to what Simon has to say.

Simon Cowan  28:33

What you actually really need to do is lower the tax rates across the board. And this is one way to start that process. Right? And

Gene Tunny  28:42

is that that’s to encourage work effort and innovation. Entrepreneurship. Yeah, so

Simon Cowan  28:47

absolutely all of those students, but I think there’s also a moral argument to this, where, you know, the government is acting as if your income belongs to them, and you should be grateful when they allow you to keep some portion of it. And, you know, the analysis seems to be that people who are receiving government benefits or low income deserve more of the higher income people’s income than they do. And I mean, you know, I think there’s a moral difference there. People who people should be entitled to receive as much of the benefit of their hard work as they can and at a tech to redistribute from the perspective of trying to sort of equalise incomes rather than trying to provide a safety net for people at the bottom it I think the more that our tax system tries to create that that equalisation for equity purposes, and the less that it focuses on, on you know, sort of the the issue of absolute inequality, the the absolute poverty issues. Is the people bought again, I think that’s a mistake. I think people should be entitled to keep their income, regardless of the income level there. Okay,

Gene Tunny  30:10

so that’s an alternative perspective. That’s from Simon Cowan. And Simon is expressing a classically liberal perspective. A libertarian, you could say, perspective on taxation. And look, that’s a that’s a fair perspective on perhaps reasonably sympathetic to that perspective, having been associated with the CIS myself. And that’s in contrast to another perspective, the thing I’d say is that, look, there’s going to be debates about values. And I mean, you know, and to an extent, we just can’t really say that there is one right answer, there’s not necessarily a solution. What’s that saying about? What would Thomas soul say? There’s no solutions, only trade offs? So look, you know, this is a tactic when it’s when when it comes to taxation, we’ve got a whole range of considerations, equity is one and we will argue about what is equitable. So we might leave it there, I think I’ve played I’ve given two perspectives on that. And if you’ve got your own views, let me know, get in touch. Right, I’ve got to move on to some of the other Maxim’s of taxation, or I’ll also, just before I get onto that to vaccin, to I’ll put the context for that. Simon Cowell and clip in the show notes. What what it was all about was about this debate we had earlier this year about this stage three tax cuts that we’re having here. And there were redesigned, so there wasn’t so much going to the top end. And arguably, well, what Simon in some of his colleagues at CIS were arguing is that well, those tax cuts will go into the top end, because they’re the ones paying the bulk of tax in the first place. And this was just given giving them back bracket creep. So what they were all the extra tax our pain, because inflation pushed them into a higher tax bracket. So he was saying, Look, you know, there’s nothing really wrong with that. And you had a lot of the people advocating to redesign the tax cut, they were essentially assuming that all his money belonged to the government in the first place. So that’s what he was. That was the context for that. So I’ll put some links in the show notes, so you can understand that a bit more. The key thing is that, yeah, I’ve given you two different perspectives, and I would be interested in your own So yep, please get in touch. Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  32:51

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Gene Tunny  33:20

Now back to the show. Right oh, let’s get on to the other Maxim’s number two. So Maxim to the tax, which Each Individual is bound to pay ought to be certain and not arbitrary. The time of payment, the manner of payment, the quantity to be paid ought to all to be clear and plain to the contributor and to every other person. Okay. So, to me, this is essentially the horizontal equity principle. You’re not being treated arbitrarily, you know, what the rules are? It’s not going to depend on the tax assessor or the person assessing your taxes, there are clear rules. And I think generally, in advanced economies, this is something that that we do reasonably well. I mean, we’re gonna have lots of debates about vertical equity and efficiency, as we’ll talk about in a moment, but I think generally, this is, this is something that is, is reasonably well, well taken care of, in terms of having clear rules. I mean, maybe you could argue, and this gets into one of these equity arguments, I suppose. Like some people will say, Well, isn’t it unfair that you know, so and so billionaire pays less taxes or proportion of their income than someone who’s a teacher or, you know, an administrator worker, okay. So, yeah, there’s that’s maybe that’s more vertical equity than than horizontal My view is that that second maximum relates to horizontal equity and our systems are probably reasonably okay in that regard. But if anyone has any different views on that, please get in touch we, we might move on to another, the third Maxim, every tax ought to be levied at the time or in the manner in which it is most likely to be convenient for the contributor to pay it. Okay, so this is, this just gets to the burden of the tax system. And I think this relates to efficiency, whether it’s efficient or not, whether it’s minimising the the regulatory burden on on taxpayers, and Smith gives the example, a tax upon the rent of land or of houses payable at the same term at which such rents are usually paid is levied at the time when it is most likely to be convenient for the contributor to pay, or when he is most likely to have where with all to pay. K? Well, I mean, I suppose that I can see why this would be an important principle, it doesn’t usually, I guess, it does come under efficiency, you can think of it under efficiency, but generally, what we find is that the tax officers, the tax agencies, they want to, they want to get your money, they want to get money from people as frequently as they can. So I suppose with with employees, the employers have to withhold the tax on behalf of the employees. So this is the withholding tax in, in the US. And in Australia, as I suppose the the wage earners are paying the tax at the time that they’re paid. So that’s consistent with this third maxim of Adam Smith’s. And even though they don’t even see the money, the employer handles at all. So perhaps you could say that that’s consistent with it. And then, depending on the type of business, you are in Australia, so if you’re a company, I think you have to pay those those tax instalments every month to the ATO or if you’re a large company, and if you’re not a large company, you pay quarterly. So I mean, arguably, that’s more convenient than then just having to make one big payment at the end of the year, which, which could cause cashflow issues. Right. So I think, you know, that’s a reasonable principle. I find it funny, it’s a bit a bit odd that it’s elevated to its its own Maxim, but Adam Smith obviously thought it was important, it was obviously a big deal at that time back in the 1770s. So fair enough, I can understand why it’s in there even even if I would have probably rolled it up into an efficiency principle. And in fact, I think it’s, I mean, when I think of when I think of the tax system in the big thing I’m often concerned about is that economic efficiency, and maybe that’s, maybe I’m not giving as much weight to those equity considerations that aren’t as others maybe that you know, that’s a that’s a value judgement on my part. I mean, obviously do care about equity to an extent. But then I’m also thinking about how do we ensure that the economy is as productive as possible for the benefit of us? All? Right, oh, so we get on to Maxim for every tax ought to be so contrived, as both to take out and to keep out of the pockets of the people as little as possible, over and above what it brings into the public treasury of the state. Now, that is a very good maxim that is a really intuitive are a really nice summary or explanation of the efficiency principle of taxation. He’s basically saying that, well, we’ve got to minimise what economists in the technical language of economists what we now call the excess burden, or the deadweight loss of attack. So when the government raises $1 of tax revenue, that’s actually taking more than $1 away from households and businesses as well. It’s a transfer of $1 from the households and businesses to the government. But then there’s an extra excess burden or deadweight loss which could be say 25 cents or so. $1 are a tax actually, it costs $1.25. So there’s the dollar. And then there’s the 25 cents on top of that, from the disruption to economic activity that lost economic activity. So the marginal cost of public funds, so to speak, is higher than then $1. So in that example, it’s $1.25. There’s that excess burden of, of 25 cents. And I think that is, that’s what Smith captured quite nicely in that maximum his. Okay, so how does that excess burden come about? And I think this is where Smith provides some, you know, some really good illustrations, he talks about how a tax may either take out, or keep out of the pockets of the people a great deal more than it brings into the public treasury in the four following ways. First, the levelling of it may require a great number of officers whose salaries may eat up the greater part of the produce of the tax and who’s perquisites may impose another additional tax upon the people. Okay, fair enough. I mean, the tax office has got administrative costs, given given modern accounting systems, and computerization, given the fact that the tax collections outsource to big business, a lot of it through withholding tax and company tax, maybe that’s less of a big deal than it was in in Smith’s stay. But certainly, I mean, yep, there’s administrative costs with taxation, no doubt about that. And I suppose that’s why you probably want to rely on a smaller number of taxes. And one of the things you do see, and this is this, this arguably is an issue when Ken Henry, my old boss, in the treasury, he did his tax review in Australia, about 15 years ago, and I remember there was a chart of some kind that showed that will, across Australia, across commonwealth and state agencies, there will, there’s over 100 different types of, of taxes. And I mean, there’s basically only 10 of them that, you know, raise the bulk of the revenue, or I don’t know, whatever, some 8020 rule, basically going on with taxation, I’ll try and track it down and put the the exact figures in the show notes. And when I did some work with Darren Nelson, and with Dan Mitchell, we did some work for a think tank in Maine, the state of Maine in New England, we discovered the same with their their state tax system. I mean, you had 90 or so maybe, yeah, oh, you had dozens and dozens of taxes, maybe it was 70 or something like that. But there was only, I think it was only like four of them, it was a handful of them that raised 90% of the revenue or something like that. So you got to wonder about the administrative costs of having all of those other, you know, dozens of small taxes and charges, is it efficient to have them? Or should we just raise the revenue with the big tax levers? Should we just use things? Like, if we have an income tax, or if you have a consumption tax or or a sales tax or whatever, should you just use those rather than having taxes on on all of these different to different things, all of these different activities like a bed tax or taxes on the production of specific commodities, particular particular crustaceans, for example, if I remember correctly, so yeah, I think, you know, Smith’s onto something there. And then he gives some other examples. Secondly, he’s talking about taxes, they may obstruct the industry of the people and discourage them from applying to certain branches of business, which might give maintenance and employment to great multitudes. Okay, so when economists think about efficiency, costs of taxation, this is essentially what they’re concerned about. They’re concerned about taxes, discouraging work effort. They’re concerned about taxes discouraging investment in new projects of our topical example, in the state of Queensland where I am in Australia. We have a state government that a couple of years ago, introduced some new tiers in the coal royalty rates, which could be seen as some sort of super profits tax in a why they were they saw the coal price just shoot through the roof really just incredible. Up to 400 500 US dollars a tonne for coking coal at one stage, I mean prices that they never ever thought they’d see. And so they tried to get some of that upside. And, you know, it’s brought it brought a lot of money into the state. And there’s a, you know, there’s a big debate about I mean, if it was really a windfall gain that these coal companies were getting, then you know, what’s the big what’s the big deal? The Capitol is sunk. They’re still making a lot of money, the state governments just getting a share of it, what’s the big deal? But then the company said, Well, how can we trust you in the future, there’s this, there’s risk that you could do something, something, you know, that could be expropriation, more expropriation in the future. So there’s this there’s this risk there. And look, you know, there’s something to that. I mean, I mean, I wouldn’t like to say that we’re an emerging economy here in Queensland, but this is a sort of thing that does happen in emerging or developing economies in from time to time. And we’ve seen various examples of, of, of populace who have tried to nationalise or take over assets of, of foreign companies. And then you had well, you know, various examples. Masa, DAG, in, in Iran in the 50s, you had NASA in Egypt with Suez Canal. So look, it’s not something that never happens. And, you know, maybe there is some risk there. So there’s that argument about that. And, and then bhp, I think it was one of the companies came out and said, Well, this is going to stop us from investing in the future. Okay. So that’s an example of where you have a tax and it could discourage investment, it could discourage economic activity, the creation of jobs, likewise, with income tax, if the income tax rates too high, then why would I go and work an additional hour? Maybe I’d rather take some leisure time. And I think we’re probably all, you know, all understand how that mechanism could work. There is a debate about just how significant that is. And people like John Kenneth Galbraith would argue that, well, high income earners are people who are driven, they’re just going to work hard anyway, they’re not really going to care about how much tax they’ll pay. But, look, I think the evidence is pretty clear, it does have an impact of some kind. And, I mean, you’re not going to be completely altruistic and, and work for all those additional hours and work hard for nothing. So there’s obviously some sort of impact there. And this is a point that that Dan Mitchell often makes, and in fact, I chatted with damage. Also, Dan Mitchell, the well known us commentator on public finance issues, Dan was on the show, several episodes ago talking about his new book, about the greatest Ponzi scheme on Earth. So he’s talking about the problems with the US budget, particularly with Social Security, the trust fund is going to run out of money in the early 2030s. And that means there’s an automatic cut in benefits, and less, they can sort things out before then. So great interview, I’m gonna put a link in the show notes. But right now, what I’m going to do is I’m going to play a clip from my conversation with Dan, to give you a taste of what we talked about. And this is Dan on the link between taxes and growth. It’s illustrating well link between high taxes and lower growth. And it illustrates the point that I’ve been talking about with efficiency, about efficiency.

Dan Mitchell  48:59

Now, I’m never one to say, Oh, you raise this tax or that tax, there’s going to be a recession. I worry more about if you raise this tax or that tax, the long run growth rate will decline. And even if it only two times a small amount, maybe two tenths of 1% a year that has massive long run implications because of the wedge effect over time. And then, and I think that even left wing economists, the honest ones are going to admit that higher marginal tax rates on work saving and investing are not good for growth. So as GDP gets smaller and smaller over time, at least in terms of compared to some baseline projection, that means Oregon tax revenue because there’s less national income to tax.

Gene Tunny  49:45

Okay, so that was Dan Mitchell. That was from a recent episode where we talked about his new book, The Greatest Ponzi scheme on Earth. So yeah, I think Dan really gave a good you know, a good summary there or he made a good point about Are these these taxes and they can have adversely affect economic growth? And he’s right there is. There is evidence from international bodies or the OECD or IMF, there are cross country econometric studies that, that do that do show that link. So, yep, good stuff from damage. All right, we’re getting getting toward the end a bit to try and wrap this up. I never thought I’d be able to talk so much about these. Maxim’s of taxation The time has really flown right. And then Adam Smith gives a a couple of other examples of how this adverse efficiency impact can come about. He talks about thirdly, by the forfeitures, and other penalties, which those unfortunate individuals incur, who attempt unsuccessfully to evade the tax, it may frequently ruin them, and thereby put an end to the benefit which the community might have received from the employment of their capitals. Okay, so So and then he goes on to talk about smuggling in in judicious tax offers a great temptation to smuggling and then he talks about, well, you know, people have this temptation to smuggle, and then they get into trouble with the law, and that ruins them. So that’s, that’s all very terrible. And look, I think, I mean, this is still going on, right? And there’s an example of this that’s very close to home. For me. Well, allegedly. We’re having this. There’s this. Well, there’s all I mean, there’s organised crime involved in illegal tobacco here in Australia. So we have just massively jacked up the taxation, the excise on tobacco. And so a pack of cigarettes now costs 40 Australian dollars or whatever it is, I mean, I don’t smoke. But I mean, I don’t know how people afford to smoke. I mean, this is why, you know, hardly anyone smokes anymore, right? Compared with 30 years ago, or even even 20 years ago, it’s that we’ve had a huge reduction, maybe, I don’t know 10%, or something about old smoke now, whereas once it would have been 60 or 70%. And we’re having this there’s a gang land war going on, because there’s all this illegal tobacco being sold. And it’s it’s been driven by the high excise the high cost of cigarettes and so I’ll put a link in the show notes to an article on this. It may be paywalled I, what I better do is just put some of the quotes from it in the show notes and what the story is, it’s how the price of a path is putting profits in gang Lords pockets. So criminologist say the de facto prohibition of cigarettes by successive federal governments hiking taxes and increasing regulation for health reasons, had created a booming illicit tobacco trade. The more government restricts a product, the more they say you can’t have it, the more it’s driven underground, and that’s when organised crime enters Bond University criminologist Terry Goldsworthy said, and then they quote another crime expert Dr. Martin, he said illegal tobacco products accounted for about 25% of the entire market. With a huge illicit trade in vapes also emerging following recent government crackdowns, the black market for smokes is huge, is growing bigger because the government is continuing to increase the price of smokes more and more. The more that happens, the more the criminal groups that supply the black market, lick their lips and think fantastic. We can just grow our market share even further. Dr. Martin said government policies aimed at stamping out smoking completely were foolish and unrealistic. Absolutely. So I think that’s consistent with how economists think about these sorts of things. I mean, you can’t really prohibit things we know that from prohibition, you just create this massive black market and you end up putting profits in the pockets of gang wards and I said this this hit close to home because around the corner from me now I don’t know exactly what happens. So you don’t want to create an awful but this is there was a vape shop around the corner from me on wicked terrorists that Spring Hill. That was well there was this suspicious fire. So police are in there’s a there’s a shot of it in this article. With the burned out shop, police investigating a potentially suspicious fire at a vape shop on Wickham terrace at Spring Hill and this is in an hour article on how the price of a puff is putting profits in gang Lord’s pockets. So it says tobacco shops in Queensland and interstate have been targeted in a spate of fire bombings and a bit of turf war as incredible figures show just how rough the black market is and how easy it is to get hold of dirt cheap illegal cigarettes. Okay, so maybe there’s some scope to have a higher excise on smokes on tobacco, because there are those health risks with tobacco, no doubt, I mean, all the deaths from lung cancer. But if you set it too high, then you’re going to have these adverse unintended consequences. And I think that is what Adam Smith was getting at, in that. That third type of efficiency cost of taxation. So, again, well done Adam Smith, and his final, the final way that you end up with his efficiency cost. He says, fourthly, by subjecting the people to the frequent visits and the odious examination of the tax gatherers, it may expose them to much unnecessary trouble vexation and oppression. And though vexation is not strictly speaking, expense, it is certainly equivalent to the expense of which every man would be willing to redeem himself from it. Okay, so some, some brilliant writers from Adam Smith. And that’s, that’s the final maximum of taxation of his principles of taxation as one about efficiency. And I mean, not that it’s not all, not every principle of economics is in the Wealth of Nations, but a lot of them are, and his writing on taxation on what makes a good taxation system that is still fresh, 250 years also after he wrote it. So absolutely. Go out and grab yourself a copy of the Wealth of Nations books fortifies Penguin Classics as a great addition of it that I’ve been that I’ve been reading. Do yourself a favour, brilliant book, says, So are the first three books of the Wealth of Nations. And I’m gonna have to come back to Adam Smith, because I think there’s so much in it. If you’d like to hear more about Adam Smith, let me know if you’ve got any thoughts on what I talked about with taxation? Do we agree, do you disagree? Let me know. I’d love to know what you think about how we design our tax system. What improvements do you think we could make? What’s your perspective on equity? Are you concerned about wealth inequality? Or are you more of the taxation is theft? View? So please let me know I’d love to love to hear your thoughts. Right. I better wrap this up. Thanks for for joining me. It’s been really great to talk about Adam Smith and, and talk about these public finance issues that, that I think about a lot and that I’ve been writing about in my new book. Okay. Thanks for joining me. Right. Oh, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com, or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

59:01

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

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Reagan, Supply-side Economics, and Trump w/ Ed Oswald – EP238

This episode explores the profound influence of Reaganomics and its enduring legacy in American economic policy with tax expert and former US Treasury attorney Ed Oswald. He is the author of a new book, “From Ronald to Donald: How the Myth of Reagan Became the Cult of Trump”. Oswald discusses the transition from Reagan’s tax reforms to Trump’s tax policies, highlighting the continuity in supply-side economics and its implications for fiscal policy and the national debt.

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: Edwin G. Oswald

Edwin G. Oswald is a partner with the law firm of Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP, resident in Washington D.C. He served as an attorney-advisor in the United States Treasury’s Office of Tax Legislative Counsel during the Clinton Administration. He is a Fellow of the American College of Tax Counsel and a frequent lecturer on financing State and local infrastructure and the federal taxation of municipal debt. The book is a personal project of Mr. Oswald’s and the views and opinions expressed herein are those of the co-authors and do not represent the views and opinions of Orrick.

What’s covered in EP238

  • Reagan’s economic policies and their impact on the US deficit. (0:00)
  • Supply-side economics and its impact on US deficits. (6:55)
  • Reaganomics and its impact, and the impact of Clinton administration policies (e.g. NAFTA, repeal of Glass-Steagall). (16:14)
  • Reagan and Trump similarities, tax cuts, and budget. (26:24)
  • Tax policy and its impact on the economy. (33:22)

Takeaways

  1. Reagan’s economic policies, particularly his tax cuts, have had a lasting influence on American politics, setting a precedent followed by later administrations including Trump’s.
  2. Ed Oswald argues that supply-side economic policies from Reagan to Trump show a consistent belief in tax cuts for the wealthy as a means to stimulate economic growth, despite debates about their effectiveness and impact on the national debt.
  3. Addressing the US debt will likely require a balanced approach of both tax increases and spending cuts, in Ed’s view.

Links relevant to the conversation

Ed’s book: https://www.amazon.com.au/Ronald-Donald-Reagan-Became-Trump/dp/1476690324 

Ed’s bio: https://www.edwingoswald.com/ 

Recent episode with Dan Mitchell on US debt:

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/04/17/is-uncle-sam-running-a-ponzi-scheme-with-the-national-debt-w-dr-dan-mitchell-ep235

Transcript: The Tax Guru the WSJ says has Wall Street’s “Strangest Hustle”: w/ Andy Lee, Parallaxes Capital – EP237

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Ed Oswald  00:00

I think in many ways some of that seed corn was was laid down by Ronald Reagan in terms of, you know, disrespect for government and in frankly, the proper role of government. Although, again, I agree with your point that certainly, you know, Reagan’s cabinet was filled with adults was filled with, you know, many competent people. But still the broadcast far and wide was, government is the problem.

Gene Tunny  00:39

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host, Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, and welcome to the show. Today we’re joined by Edie Oswald, a prominent taxation expert and lawyer based in Washington DC. He’s a former attorney advisor to the US Treasury Department. And he’s the co author of a new book, from Ronald to Donald how the myth of Reagan became the cult of Trump. In our conversation, we delve into the profound influence that the Reagan administration had on American and global economic policy. We also explore Trump’s relationship with Reagan’s legacy and the potential implications of a second Trump presidency. Okay, I’d love to hear your thoughts on my discussion today with it. Also, please let me know your ideas on how I can improve the show. My contact details are in the show notes. Without further ado, let’s dive into the episode. Enjoy it Oswald is great to be speaking with you about your new book.

Ed Oswald  02:08

Thank you, Jane. Pleasure to be here.

Gene Tunny  02:10

Very good. Yes. From Ronald to Donald I, I learned quite a fair bit about Reagan that I didn’t know. So I enjoyed reading it for that reason. In particular, as someone with Irish ancestry myself, I was, I was surprised to learn, I didn’t realise and I mean, as you point out, or your you and your co author point out, it’s obvious once you realise, you think about his last name, that he had that Irish ancestry and he and for political reasons, it was something he didn’t reveal in the campaign, which I found fascinating and the story about his the origin of his nickname, Dutch, his, his underprivileged background, it’s a rather extraordinary story to to begin with, what did you find most fascinating in your, when researching the life of Reagan for this book? Well,

Ed Oswald  03:06

thank you, Jean. You know, what I found most interesting is, is really subtle, although he didn’t say much about it. Though his relationship with his father. His father was basically a shoe salesman. His father was an alcoholic, that always had a battle with the bottle. I think how Reagan tried to grapple with that somewhat, both in terms of acknowledging it, and then somebody denying it. But I think that did have an impact on his view of the world and how he carried himself. Right.

Gene Tunny  03:43

Yeah, yeah, indeed. That’s interesting, too, because they, you know, Trump has an interesting relationship with with alcohol too, because he, I think his brother was an alcoholic and died of alcoholism or, or an illness related to it. I can’t remember. Exactly. And so Trump himself doesn’t drink. So that’s, uh, yeah, that’s that’s, that’s interesting after that, to go revisit that part of Reagan’s story. To get into the, you know, what most interests me about the book? Is these economic issues, because Reagan’s obviously a pivotal figure in economic history of the 20th century. Would you be able to take us through what was so different or revolutionary even about Reagan’s economic policies for his head?

Ed Oswald  04:34

Yeah, thank you. So, you know, you have to remember the political scene in the United States in the late 70s, where you had, you know, Jimmy Carter was president. We were going through a high inflationary period, we were dealing with the remnants of a gas crisis and energy crisis. We were dealing with the Iranian hostage crisis, it was really quite a dire time and America. And I guess really to mirror what Joe Biden has been saying lately in terms of him wanting the wealthy to pay their fair share. US tax policy, historically had high tax marginal, high, high marginal tax rates, effectively, from the beginning of really World War Two, the wealthy pay their fair share Republican tax rates on the rise in how or the highest marginal rate was, you know, 90 or above, with Nixon, it was 70 or above. So in terms of, you know, the the spectrum of the US taxes, when Reagan came in with, with the notion of something called supply side economics, which is basically the notion that the tax rates in the country are too high. And if we cut tax rates and tax rates significantly, which Reagan did, we can talk more about, primarily towards the wealthy. The economic benefits will trickle down to the lower rungs of the economic spec, that being the wealthy, the wealthy, the well to do, the industrialists will have more capital, they’ll have more money to spend. And therefore, that we’ll juice the economy and move us forward. Move us if you will, out of the Jimmy Carter era. You know, and what, what we can talk more about really the consequences of that. But you know, what that really led to was a ballooning of the US deficit. And a lot of really negative effects that way try to illustrate the highlight in the book.

Gene Tunny  06:54

Yeah, gotcha. So this is the supply side doctrine. And this was based on the Laffer curve is that concept of the Laffer curve? So one of the advisors to Reagan was art laffer. And, I mean, I guess how economists think about it nowadays is that, you know, there’s obviously some efficiency loss associated with taxes and, and that efficiency loss or the cost of taxation, the deadweight loss, so to speak, that increases disproportionately or at a faster rate than the increase in the tax rate. So essentially, I think there’s some there’s some truth to this, that there is an adverse impact. But the the issue is, is where you are on that Laffer curve. And, you know, there’s so they may have got some there may have been some offset from increased economic activity, but there wasn’t enough to to actually compensate for the loss of income from the cut in the rates. So that’s what you’re you’re talking about, isn’t it? So this is actually something that contributed to future deficits. Is that right? Yeah,

Ed Oswald  08:04

I think that’s well said that, you know, I think a well designed tax cut, you know, can lead to, you know, economic growth. And as you say, it’s a struggle a little bit for what that sweet spot is. But really, where supply side economics have gone within the GOP or GOP doctrine or conservative doctrine is that basically, you know, tax cuts, if you will pay for themselves. That’s really that’s really the slogan. That’s not true. Every tax cut does, you know, result in a loss of revenue, and no tax cut will pay for itself. We do state in the book that in that time, 1980 1981, with the highest marginal rate being 70%. It was probably a good time for a tax cut. It was probably a good time to deregulate the economy. But what what we kind of highlight in the book is that, you know, Reagan’s policies really live on some 40 years later, we’re still living with supply side economics within the United States. The notion that tax cuts do not pay for themselves have led to a really a ballooning of the national debt. The national debt when Reagan came into office was slightly less than one tray and and when he left off his office, it was close to 3 trillion. So although Reagan really did rail against the deficit, and the balanced budget, the US deficit increased 171% under Reagan, which, you know, is a bit shocking in terms of his paradigm and the Reagan missed in terms of a budget hawk. Gotcha.

Gene Tunny  10:00

Now these the tax cuts or the supply side economics that was controversial at the time, wasn’t it? As you point out, so George Bush Senior HW Bush, I mean, I think he was a Yale economics major, wasn’t he? I mean, he had, you know, he was a yeah, yes. Yes. And he, as you point out, he famously called it voodoo economic policy. And you also mentioned, David Stockman, what can you remind us? What was Stockmans critique? Was it was he concerned about supply side economics and the logic of it all? Well,

Ed Oswald  10:36

yeah, so David Stockman was the Reagan’s first head of OMB, the Office of Management and Budget, and really his his wing man, if you will, in terms of tax policy, implementing the significant tax cuts, you know, just to give the listeners a sense of perspective, when Reagan came into office in 1980, again, it became president in 81, the highest marginal tax rate in the US was 70%. And when he left in 1988, the highest marginal rate was 28%. So really a dramatic dramatic reduction and the highest marginal rate within the US. So stock when was really he was a former congressman from Michigan, really rate, you know, the point man for the budget, budget policy, tax policy, what the significant tax cuts have on spending and so forth. And I believe that, you know, initially, Stockman was really a disciple. He believed in supply side economics. He believed that the tax cuts would move the economy forward. But the other end of a revolution, and I think he says this, in terms of the Reagan Revolution, is not only do you need a revolution in tax rates, but you need a revolution in terms of spending. And if you’re looking at, if you’re looking at the significant spending on the US side, it’s a big part of his social security, that big targeted because Medicare, big part of it is the US defence budget. And I think that Stockman became more and more alarmed. And he read, he really wrote extensively about this, that this revolution was only one side, it was really a revolution on the revenue side, not the spending side. And ultimately realised, politically, although Reagan ran on this revolution, it was kind of a revolution to name only. And he became more and more alarmed as he got signals from the point persons and within budget, that Reagan is not going to take on significant domestic spending. Hence, I think his chagrin down the road, and also the blurring of the US national debt there. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  13:10

yeah. I think the best case that can be made for and I’m not necessarily advocating for this, but I think the best case that can be made for cutting taxes in advance of spending cuts is that there’s that starve the beast idea, isn’t there? I think that’s the that’s the concept that eventually this will force Congress to make the hard decisions. But I mean, so far that that really hasn’t happened yet. And so you trace this, this policy or this, you see this supply side economics as being influential in future administrations? Can you talk about that, please, Edwin? I mean, what what administration’s or what policies has it influenced? Post Reagan?

Ed Oswald  13:54

Yeah, I’d be happy to. So it’s clearly influenced. George W. Bush, Herbert Walker, his son, who initiated significant supply side tax cuts in 2001. Perhaps more sun are bringing in son of Bush, if you will, in terms of the least, tax policy outlook, he didn’t see the Voodoo that his father did. And then in 2017, really, frankly, Trump’s only Trump’s real signature domestic legislation was the 2017 tax cuts and Jobs Act, which is which was not quite as significant tax cuts as the 2001 George W. Bush, but still quite significant in terms of supply side economics and having, you know, tax cuts weighted towards the wealthy. I would say Jean, you know, one one general observation I would make just in terms of you US policy, US domestic policy, which is, I think, hamstrung the Democratic Party somewhat, is if you if you have one major political party believing that tax cuts pay for themselves, you know, tax cuts are the major elixir that moves the economy forward. And then you have another party that believes in math, or math and science, and they will get into that, too, is very hard for the Democratic Party to say, you know, look, folks, we have large national debt, tax cuts don’t pay for themselves, and therefore we want to raise taxes not lower than, again, if one party believes in math and the other party doesn’t, it really does handicap the Democratic Party, that being Barack Obama, or Bill Clinton, people who were elected later than Ronald Reagan, to really raise rates significantly, because it’s not politically popular. In other words, to get cutting taxes as easy, raising taxes is difficult. It’s kind of like when your mother says eat your vegetables. The first reaction is no, I’d rather have

Gene Tunny  16:14

candy. Yeah, yeah. So yeah, this is an interesting point to explore. So we might go through this. I had Dan Mitchell on the show the other week, he’s got his new book out, the greatest Ponzi scheme on Earth with with Rubin, you know, you know, Dan, if you’ve heard of damage, I’ve heard about the book. Yes, yes. Yes. And I mean, Dan’s argument is that well, actually, I mean, it’s not the taxes is the issue with suspending as the out of control entitlements. So yeah, I guess you can I mean, there is going to be that political debate about what’s the best way to, to, to deal with this with this debt? And I mean, one options, definitely tax increases, which put them in that’s politically unpopular. I mean. Yeah. I mean, maybe that’s the through the mean, your argument is that that’s due to this, this myth of Reagan, the supply side economics, the view that taxes are good for growth and can help pay for themselves? I mean, that’s, that’s a hypothesis that that’s fair enough. But yeah, but I mean, it is, I guess there is a legitimate debate about what the best way to fix the the debt is, and whether in Dan’s argument is that, well, if you just let them raise more taxes, they’ll just find more things to spend it on, and you’re not really going to solve the problem. So how would you like to respond to that at all that otherwise, we’re gonna move on to something else? I just thought I’d make that observation. Because I thought that was an interesting argument from Dan. Yeah,

Ed Oswald  17:44

I mean, briefly, I really think at this point, you know, with an ageing US population, with significant national debt, racked up over 40 years of largely peace and prosperity, I frankly, think there has to be, you know, a balanced approach, there’s got to be, you know, a level of mature adult discussion about both raising taxes. And also, I think, looking at entitlements and looking at spending, looking at the fact that, you know, people are living longer, and it just really needs to be a balanced approach. And I think, a sober discussion, that, you know, there’s no free lunch. Ultimately, this has to be paid for, right now a payment for borrowing from future generations. And, you know, there needs to be a reckoning, if you will.

Gene Tunny  18:39

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  19:14

Now back to the show. So one thing I want to explore. So you I mean, this is a really damning critique of Reagan and Ngop administration’s. I mean, you’re essentially blaming them for all Well, I mean, maybe this is a mischaracterization, but it’s very strong critique of Reagan, and then how how that has influenced GOP policy in the future. And so you’re right. It was Reagan who said America on a course of hyper capitalism and wholesale industry deregulation. The legacy of Reaganism is all around us heedless consumption. Reduction in the progressivity of the tax code, weaken environmental laws, a war against expertise, and government legitimising structural budget deficits and widening economic Inequality. What I’d like to ask and I’d like you to reflect on is I mean, to what extent is the Democratic Party? Part of the problem here? Right? Because? I mean, I mean, and as an economist, I think the mean, I’m not necessarily criticising some of these policy decisions, because I was probably support would have been supportive of them at the time. But the didn’t do regulation begin under Carter, with the airlines. And then I mean, Reagan, then took on the unions and, you know, did further deregulation, Clinton, the Clinton administration had the NAFTA agreement, which Ross Perot said, created this great, great sucking sound out of the data centre in New Mexico. Glass Steagall was repealed by the Clinton administration, with Rubin and summers. So what’s the Democratic Party’s role in all of this as well, please, Edwin?

Ed Oswald  20:56

Yeah, fair, quite fair question. And I think that, you know, in the wake in the wake of Reagan, in the wake of George Herbert Walker Bush, there was certainly I think, a reset, you know, within the Democratic Party, in terms of thinking about the New Deal, thinking about the the Great Society of Lyndon Johnson, recognising that Americans after 12 years of having a Republican in the White House, that they became accustom and conditioned to lower tax rates. So I think there frankly, had to be, you know, an accommodation, if you want to be a successful political party, saying, at least at that point, we need more government and higher taxes is not going to get you elected, it’s not going to get you elected, you know, post Reagan, the great communicator, the man who really, I think, conditioned Americans to think about our society in tax policy and other things in in very convincing and very convincing ways. So I think there Yeah, I think there were compromises. And I think, though, though, although, you know, Bill Clinton did raise taxes, he did raise the highest marginal tax rate, up to 39.6. If you look at that, by historical standards, it’s you know, it’s way wider the mark. So I think that was kind of an April mentalism post Reagan to move to shift the ball back in a somewhat progressive nature. But it was a compromise given, I think, one Reagan’s presidency and to the way that, you know, US society had to evolve at that point. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  22:56

Yeah. And I think one point, the important point about the Clinton administration, and to its credit, it did work with the Congress to, to rein in the budget. And I think you ran some budget surpluses in the late 90s. Yeah, yeah. So that was that was to its credit. Okay. One of the things I found interesting and I want to ask you about this specifically for among those that are the charges against Reaganism, you’re talking about a war against expertise and government now, is this just about supply side economics? Or is it more general? Because I mean, to me, I mean, looking at the like that Reagan had a very impressive cabinet lineup. And then you had people like James Baker, George Shultz, Weinberger, it seemed to be a fairly strong cabinet of people with expertise. So what’s your critique? There, please, Edwin, what is that war against expertise and government that you see

Ed Oswald  23:58

here? So let me just maybe give you a little bit of a a backdrop. I think one thing we tried to make it clear in the book is certainly that the character of Reagan and Trump, I think, is quite different. And we try to make this frankly, in chapter one, we try to make that distinction that you know, Reagan, you know, had Reagan was a moral person. You know, Reagan had shame. Reagan had true, you know, legit government bonafide, he was a two term governor of California. So he come he came to the table, both as a man and with experience very different than what Donald Trump came with. So we’re not saying the character of Trump and Reagan is similar. We in fact, say it’s this song. But the one to your point. You know, one of the things that I think start is down the road would have, perhaps dismissing expertise was very famously in his inauguration speech and the January 2019 81. Reagan said at the present time, government is not the solution to our problem. government is the problem that’s been somewhat mythologized by the GOP over the year in terms of shorthand that government is the problem. Yeah, I think I think implicit is that is contempt frankly, contempt for government contempt for bureaucrats. You see aspects of that really bubbling up in the GOP in terms of global warming. You know, in terms of respect to science, and the poor until the house scientists become politicised over the last few decades. And I really think in many ways, some of that seed corn was was laid down by Ronald Reagan in terms of, you know, disrespect for government and in frankly, the proper role of government. Although, again, I agree with your point that certainly, you know, Reagan’s cabinet was filled with adults was filled with many competent people. But still the broadcast far and wide was government is the problem. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  26:23

yeah. I mean, I learned I didn’t know that there was that qualification, or how he began that famous statement. So I learned something from that as well. And yeah, it makes more sense. And it sounds more, it sounds more sensible. And it sounds more like something you would say at that inauguration without being where you’re not familiar. It was an otherwise it’s a very ideological statement, a very broad brush statement. But with that qualification, it does make more sense. So I think it was good for me to to learn that. So I really appreciate that. That was a good part of the book. Okay. Yeah. Right. Oh, so I guess what I want to ask now it is, I mean, what’s the link with with Trump? I mean, where are how many years? Is it? 35 or 36 years since Reagan was in the White House? I mean, how is this? How is this relevant to? I mean, I guess we’re talking about the the tax cuts and the belief in their, their ability to pay for themselves. Okay, that’s an argument you can make. But what about Trump? Is Trump at any one in in any way influenced by the Reagan legacy? Or is he a he’s a man with his own views? I mean, he’s a, he’s his own force of the universe, really, rather than inspired by Reagan. I mean, how do you see the connection between Trump and Reagan?

Ed Oswald  27:47

Yeah. So, you know, as we, as we wrote the book, and certainly part of the book was written when during the Trump presidency, although it’s a book primarily on Reagan, we couldn’t help but not see the connection somewhat between, you know, Reagan and Trump and let me give you kind of desensitise. You know, for So for starters, you know, Reagan really was the first, you know, Magog president, if you will, if you recall, Reagan’s slogan back in 1980. Was let’s make America great again. Trump shorthand did that by one word, make America great again. So they both really ran on the same slogan just in terms of commonality. And what if you will, what Trump took from Reagan, to I think, gene that the DNA of the campaigns were quite similar. There was contempt for government, I think, contempt for expertise, both pro tax cut, both somewhat based in nationalism. And I think also, more importantly, both based on some aspects of nostalgia, hence, America Great Again, you know, they were both democrats are certainly portions of their lives. You know, Reagan was, ironically, a new dealer, until the 60s and Reagan and Trump was a Democrat. For a large portion of their lives. They didn’t have his life. They were both divorced. Neither one was really a student of government. Neither one was deep and expertise. No one really took on a political career, took on politics as a political career. And I think they’re also, frankly, both you know, mythmakers, and I think they both played a long, perhaps a weakness in the American psyche to believe mediated mythology, as opposed to one meeting reality. You know, Reagan was the Marlboro Man, the man on the books, Reagan was you know, Morning in America, Trump was the man with the Midas touch the entrepreneur, the character you see from, from the apprentice. So they both played upon those myths, which was a strong suit for for both of them in terms of dealing with the media.

Gene Tunny  30:18

Yeah, gotcha. Okay. And I mean, what are your thoughts on what? What we could see in terms of economic policy? If there is a another Trump administration? I mean, I, I mean, being in Australia, it’s hard for me to make an assessment of, of what’s going on, sometimes I hear, I’ll look at, it’s easily going to be Trump, it’s going to be a Wipeout. And then other times I hear I’ll hang on not so don’t be so sure about that. There’s a way for, for, for Biden to hang on. So I’ve got a really got no idea who’s going to win the election. I mean, my suspicion is it will be Trump and that, therefore we should start thinking about what, whether there’ll be economic policy changes. Do you have any thoughts on that? Edwin? What’s the Do you have any? Can you look into the crystal ball for us, please? Yeah,

Ed Oswald  31:10

so it’s certainly going to be a tight race. I would say just on the political front, you know, you know, Donald Trump now is in the middle of a criminal trial in New York City, taking him off the campaign trail, and perhaps people are taking a second look at some of the facts and circumstances there. But I would say, Jane, in terms of, you know, economic policy tax policy, if Trump is reelected, you know, an important element of that is whether the House and Senate also turned Republican. That’s an important fact there. If Trump is reelected, and they and the GOP wins the House and Senate, then I think you’ll see, you know, more tax cuts, at least one thing to highlight is many aspects of Trump’s 2017 Tax Act, expire at the end of 2025. So you’ll do so I think you’ll see a lot of energy, about renewing those tax cuts, and perhaps even further tax cuts above and beyond what Trump did in 2017. You know, if Trump is reelected, but doesn’t take the House and Senate, well, then you’re probably looking for some type of compromise, you know, along perhaps party or various lines there. It’ll be much more difficult, I think, for Trump to press on in a significant way and material way in terms of tax cuts, if he doesn’t have both underlying houses as well.

Gene Tunny  32:55

Yeah, yeah. I mean, given the state of the, the budget of it, it’d be good, be courageous to try and get additional tax cuts. I mean, whether, you know, you might you know, for some of us who are more on the, you know, classical classically liberal side of things, we might say, well, it’s, you know, it’d be good to have a smaller government and have, you know, tax cuts. But yeah, if you don’t cut spending, then that’s problematic. And it’s adding to the, the data. And you’ve already got a problem there. And I think one of the one of the important messages of your book, which I liked is that you’ve got to have, you’ve got to have this respect for the numbers. And to some extent, some of these policies that have been advanced, they seem to not have a, you know, the advocates may not understand the actual arithmetic. So I think that’s a, that’s a fair point. And it is such a change. And I might sort of start to wrap up, but you quote JFK, JFK to Yale University’s Class of 1962. And I mean, this just highlights the change that we’ve had that, like, JFK said that the differences today are usually a matter of degree what is at stake today is not some grand warfare of rival ideologies, which will sweep the country with passion. But the practical management of a modern economy, the unravelling of America’s post war governing consensus began with the election of Ronald Wilson Reagan. Okay. So very, very strong charge there. Before we wrap up, Edwin, anything else? Before we should conclude anything else you’d like to add?

Ed Oswald  34:31

Well, just maybe just reflect upon that passage you quoted is? You know, I liked that passage. Well, one, you know, I quote, JFK, as you know, a number of times in the book, just in terms of, although, you know, a Democratic president, I think he was very eloquent and staining the states and the times of his presidency. A and going really back perhaps to where we started that, you know, in terms of tax policy, historically, at least up to 1980, you did not have really a dramatic difference in tax rates between the GOP and the Democratic Party. As we started earlier, you had tax rates, the wealthy really did pay their fair share, regardless of who is elect building, because, you know, deficits mattered, the Balanced Budget Narrative, paying our bills matters. And all that really did change in 1981. Were really there was a revisiting of what JFK said about managing managing a modern economy. And looking at things really with very different prism in stark contrast, in terms of governing philosophy. Hence, here we are 40 years later, still in the middle of that, in many ways, still dealing with, you know, Reagan’s tax policies. In the wake of the deficit here.

Gene Tunny  36:13

Rock Gotcha. Okay. Yep. I mean, it’s a, it’s a well argued book. And there’s a lot of really interesting stories in there a lot of things I learned. So I’ll definitely recommend it. I’ll put a link in the show notes, I suppose, where, and I might have to come back to this in a future episode, what I’d like to explore, and it’s to what extent I mean, can we just say it’s, is it because of the tax rates? Or is it also because of, you know, there was the China shock that David Autor talks about, there’s the, you know, the NAFTA, and those, you know, both of those developments, they had implications for the middle America, so to speak, a lot of towns in, in the Midwest and in, in rural America were were badly affected by by those shocks. And you’ve also got the skill biassed technological change. We’ve got the internet and all of that, which is led to increased inequality. So that’s one thing I’d like to explore a bit more I know, it’s, you would have had the, you know, your your book had a slightly different focus. But as an economist, I’d probably want to explore the the empirics around that. What are the relative contributions a bit more? I don’t know if you’ve had any, before we wrap up any reflections on that? Or any if you’ve done any investigations yourself on that, Edwin?

Ed Oswald  37:34

Well, I would just say, you know, those are all those are all fair points. And I And you’re right, my my book as a kind of singularity of focus, which is really, you know, more on tax policy, and tax cuts. But I would say that what really influenced me was there was been a London School of Economics study that came out in 2020. You know, a 50 year of study, you know, based on cutting tax cuts for the wealthy looking at, you know, 18 OECD countries. Which really, you know, did, I think, empirically link, the notion of, you know, tax cuts for the wealthy lead to a largest share of the national income going to the wealthy. And I would say that, despite the events, you say, some of which we could control and some of the some of it, we can, it’s just the, you know, the macro economic situation. You know, Congress in the executive branch can control tax policy and tax rates and something within our control. And I think if we want to deal with the growing deficit with the growing income divide and wealth divide, at least tax policy is something within our control. It’s something to be more considered, if you will. Very

Gene Tunny  39:01

good. Okay. Edwin hospital. Thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed reading your book and well done on the book. Yes, I’ll definitely recommend that and put a link in the show notes. very much enjoyed the conversation. Look forward to speaking sometime in the future.

Ed Oswald  39:19

Here was my pleasure. Thank you very much for having me on.

Gene Tunny  39:23

rato, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting outlets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

40:10

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

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Podcast episode

The Tax Guru the WSJ says has Wall Street’s “Strangest Hustle”: w/ Andy Lee, Parallaxes Capital – EP237

According to the Wall Street Journal, this episode’s guest Andy Lee is “The Tax Whiz With the Strangest Hustle on Wall Street”. He’s the founder and CIO of Parallaxes Capital, and he joins us to talk about tax receivable agreements (TRAs). Andy explained what TRAs are, how they come about for companies going public such as Shake Shack in 2015, and why he’s investing in them. Disclaimer: Nothing in this episode should be construed as financial or investment advice. 

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: Andy Lee, Founder and CIO of Parallaxes Capital

Andy founded Parallaxes Capital in 2017. Previously, he was with Lone Star Funds, focused on investing in the Americas. He began his career at Citigroup.

Andy graduated from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with a Masters in Accountancy and a Bachelors in Finance and Accountancy.

Andy has been featured in publications including Wall Street Journal, Capital Allocators, Institutional Investor, NBC, Forbes, ReOrg Radio and Fitch’s LevFin Insights. He has spoken at events and conferences for organizations such as the Association of Asian American Investment Managers (“AAAIM”) and leading academic institutions including the University of Illinois, University of Pennsylvania and Texas Christian University (“TCU”)

When Andy is not working, he enjoys taking his corgi (Taco) on long walks.

Fun Fact: Andy, rarely one to back down from highly ambitious goals, ran a marathon less than 180 days from ACL, MCL and PCL surgery.

Source: https://parallaxescapital.com/our-team/ 

What’s covered in EP237

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • TRAs for companies going public in the US. (6:18)
  • TRAs agreements and their value for private equity investors (i.e. pre-IPO owners). (12:52)
  • Tax refunds, risk management, and investment opportunities. (19:57)
  • TRAs and investment strategies. (24:47)
  • TRAs and their potential as a diversified investment. (30:55)

Takeaways

  1. TRAs convert future corporate tax savings (e.g. from depreciation expenses) into current income streams.
  2. TRAs provide long-dated, typically 15-year income streams that can be sold by pre-IPO owners (e.g., private equity investors).  
  3.  Private equity firms use TRAs to increase their earnings from the sale of businesses they’ve invested in. 
  4. Ideal Candidates for TRAs are large, stable companies with predictable long-term profitability (e.g. Shake Shack), rather than high-growth tech startups which often lack immediate profitability.
  5. US tax expertise is required to properly analyze and invest in TRAs.

Links relevant to the conversation

WSJ article about Andy, “The Tax Whiz With the Strangest Hustle on Wall Street”: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/tax-whiz-strange-hustle-wall-street-d51ddbc6 

Parallaxes Capital: https://parallaxescapital.com/ 

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Transcript: The Tax Guru the WSJ says has Wall Street’s “Strangest Hustle”: w/ Andy Lee, Parallaxes Capital – EP237

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Andy Lee  00:04

Tax is the largest asset class in the world that no one’s ever heard of. It’s a very much part of the fabric of our society. Like there are so many avenues through which tax assets are expressed and are monetized.

Gene Tunny  00:26

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you could join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, and welcome to the show. In this episode, I talked to the man that the Wall Street Journal has described as the tax whiz with the strangest hustle on Wall Street. It’s Andy Lee from parallaxes capital and we’re talking about tax receivable agreements T RAS. What on earth rtra is and why has Andy invested in them? How did companies like Shake Shack end up bound by T IRAs? Stay tuned to find out. Please be aware that Andy’s firm parallaxes capital is a big investor in TRS and nothing in this episode should be treated as financial or investment advice. I would love to hear your thoughts on the discussion that I have with Andy today. So please get in touch and let me know what you think. And if you have any questions, my contact details are in the show notes. As sponsor this episode is Lumo coffee a seriously healthy organic coffee with three times a healthy antioxidants of regular coffee. Lumo coffee offers a 20% discount for economics explore listeners until 30 April 2024. Be sure to check out the show notes for more details. Without further ado, let’s dive into the episode. Enjoy. Andy Lee from parallaxes. Capital, welcome to the programme.

Andy Lee  02:09

Thank you for having me.

Gene Tunny  02:11

It’s a pleasure, Andy, I’m keen to learn about this very exotic, very interesting, and, you know, asset class I hadn’t heard of before before I learned about what you’re doing these tax receivable agreements, so keen to chat about that to start with? Could you tell us about parallaxes? Capital? What’s the idea with the name? How did you come up with the name? Absolutely.

Andy Lee  02:38

So a parallax is an astronomy term. Whereby you look at a planet from a different vantage point to arrive at a different perspective of an object. So there are several meanings in the name, the first being an ode to my old firm, it was called Lonestar funds. And so looking at a person having a different perspective, the more secular meaning around was that many people look at problems from a singular point of view. And in order to solve an equation, like you need to look at it from multiple perspectives, to arrive at multiple solution sets. And so the plural of parallax parallax cysts. And so that was as parallax was unavailable. parallaxes was, and so that was helpful. But also it talks a little bit to my faith. I’m a Christian. And as a Christian, and we’re not so much focused on the here and now, but more focused on eternity. So a very long term perspective.

Gene Tunny  03:41

Very good. Yes, it’s a it’s a good name. I always remember those that classic 1970s film with I think it was Warren Beatty, the parallax view, which is one of those great 1970s conspiracy films that I’d recommend. So yeah, very, you know, top marks on the name. So well done. I’ve got to ask me, what is parallaxes? Capital? What? So if you’re a, you’re a fund manager of some kind, or what are you actually doing?

Andy Lee  04:10

So we’re an investment manager based in the in the US and we have raised six funds dedicated to the strategy of monetizing tax receivable agreements. So a tax receivable agreement, think about it, like a long dated annuity that is not too dissimilar from a streaming royalty on metals or mining, musical royalties of pharmaceutical royalties. So long data annuity like cash flows, that we provide upfront liquidity for to holders of these assets in order for them to have to recycle that capital to do other more productive items.

Gene Tunny  04:55

Gotcha. Okay, so, a couple of things there just immediately long dated how long and by the upfront liquidity? I mean, what is this? Is this a repurchase agreement? Or are you? Are you buying them outright? What’s, how do you how are you? What’s that involve?

Andy Lee  05:16

So are the two questions the first duration lies? It’s typically a 15 year piece of paper. Just to provide a perspective on it, we actually have fun one was a 21 year of fun to hold the paper. I know I look very young as an Asian American, it’s a gift, as I’ll call it. But people weren’t sure if I was even 2001 When I went out to raise our first fund. On the second question, it is the latter. Do what you suggest that we buy these outright from counterparties, including the likes of private equity, their CO investors, management team as well as founders, providing them upfront liquidity for what is otherwise a unloved and misunderstood asset.

Gene Tunny  06:02

Okay, gotcha. Right. And what is the asset itself? So there’s obviously a stream of income coming from somewhere for this to be valuable, what is the actual underlying asset? Absolutely.

Andy Lee  06:18

Think about it almost like a tax refund, that one might receive after they file their taxes. So some here in the US, every April 15, individuals have to file their taxes, fulfilling their tax obligation to the United States. Oftentimes, many of these individuals have overpaid their taxes. And so on April 15, they would file your taxes, the US government would say, hey, Jean, you’ve overpaid your taxes by 100 bucks, we’ll pay it to you in two months. For many individuals, they might want the money immediately. And so there are businesses such as the likes of an h&r block, that would say, June instead of waiting for $100, in two months, we’ll give you $95. Today, a Buy It Now price, we do the exact same thing. But not for consumers. We do it for corporations, where they have 15 years of refunds available to them, that would come due. And so instead of waiting every year to get that annuity, they want that money today. And so we prospectively provide them that factoring solution upfront proceeds.

Gene Tunny  07:37

Ah, okay, I think okay, this is starting to make sense. Right. So what type of companies are we talking about? I mean, what from my reading? And looking into this, it looks like is this is this highly relevant to the tech sector to startups?

Andy Lee  07:55

I wish I’m the only one, it may not be the most relevant that attack sector is primarily driven by the fact that many tech firms here in United States are very focused on growth at all costs, relative to profitability, many of them, or the vast majority of the tech sector runs unprofitably Primarily because the market prior to 2020, to value them on growth, more than they did on cash flows, primarily because they believed that these were long data annuity streams. And the SAS businesses were long data annuity themes, and that whenever they stopped growing, they will become incredibly profitable. That obviously then come to fruition whenever growth stopped. So that’s not the where we primarily transact names that we’re are associated with, include the likes of a REMAX, a Shake Shack, yeah. Duffin Phelps, so large corporates that are investment grade near investment grade businesses, there’s also the Edit element that as quickly as a tech business disrupts a industry itself is vulnerable to being disrupted. And so for an investment manager like myself, focus on the space that we’re in, like, we don’t focus on the next year or next five years, we have to believe that a business is going to be a going concern for 15 years. So that’s a very different perspective or lens that you have to look at a opportunity, primarily because you might be a great business today. Do I believe that you’re gonna be a great business in 15 years, if you’re not a great business? Senior, you might be a great business for five years that will result in me getting a return of my capital. Ultimately, I’m in business to get a return on my capital. And if you’re no longer in business in your six, I got my money back. And then I just wasted a huge opportunity cost for my investors.

Gene Tunny  10:08

Yeah, yeah, gotcha. And how does this tax receivable agreement? come about? Then? And also, I mean, okay, so I guess maybe I need to go back a bit. What’s generating this, this tax refund primarily? What is it that that is generating these potential tax refunds that will be coming in the future and that you’re able to then you buy you effectively buy those tax refunds off the companies? So I guess I’m interested in what’s generating them, if there are any sort of commonalities. And also then how do you go about making that agreement? What’s the contract look like? Is it regulated? Or is there a standard form? Can you tell us a bit about that place? Andy?

Andy Lee  10:55

Yeah, absolutely. So the most common version of that is, whenever a company is going public, they enter into a specific tax transaction in the US transforming their business, from what we call a flow through, which is a partnership or an LLC becoming a C corporation, that transaction is known as the up seat transaction, that transaction enables the company to be a beneficiary of large tax assets that will become available to them over 50, typically 15 years. So that’s an incredibly valuable asset. As a result of entering to these transactions, they enter into the agreement, the agreement is relatively rote. It’s while it’s a cottage industry, much of it has been rinse and repeat it over 30 years has been around since the 1980s. And so something that as well Warren precedents, as well as presidential documents for them to follow. And so for us, these are ultimately ended up in the hands of what we call a natural holders. So in the private equity context, private equity firms have tenure fun lives. So they take a company public, and oftentimes, they sell down the equity within the 10 years that their funds allow for them. These, if you took a company public in your A these assets, then start a 15 year clock. So in your two to three, it will be your 11 for private equity fund, you’re looking to move on and sell these positions. And that’s where we stop at we’re a second during market liquidity provider for these

Gene Tunny  12:51

assets. Rod okay. And I mean, you talk about large tax assets. What if, if I understood your terminology correctly? What are you talking about? Are you talking about what is it is a depreciation or is it the things that Yeah, Okay, gotcha

Andy Lee  13:10

items that can be depreciated or amortised. So raw. What what what’s an item that depreciate a car? A building on land is not depreciable because like obviously land is the land. But things are amortised include things that aren’t intangible in nature. So customer relationships, among others, that might be available intellectual property, among others.

Gene Tunny  13:37

Gotcha. So this is a way for these companies to to get well to get to get cash to reinvest in their operations or to you know, for working capital, whatever. Can you explain what is it? What’s in it for them? Because I mean, they they sacrifice this, you know, the this tax, you know, this expense that they can use to reduce their, their tax liability in the future? They get the upfront cash, what is it? Is it is it out of desperation that they’re going into these agreements. So how

Andy Lee  14:11

I would make a slightly different connotation. Remember, I mentioned that the sellers are private equity firms, or investors among others. So at the time of the IPO, these assets are owned by the company. Remember, pre IPO, the Board of Directors got our fiduciary duty is to maximise value for pre IPO shareholders, the public markets, we as in the US have seen a massive move away from active to passive investors. active investors are very focused on understanding what intrinsic value are, and so they’re very focused on understanding the free cash flow capabilities and generation of a business. However, on the other side of the equation passive Investors are more algorithmic, algorithmic or systematic in nature and are focused on among other things, revenue, multiple growth rates, EBIT, da multiples, price earning, none of which really captured the value of tax assets, primarily because they’re less standardisation across things such as capital expenditure, and intensity of a business, working capital, cash taxes. And so as a result of not necessarily the attributes that they seek being captured by the evaluation metrics, these tax assets are ignored. And so private equity firms are saying, Look, this fundamentally improves the free cash flow generation of a business. If you’re not going to give us an incremental value, incremental value for it, we’re going to extract it for ourselves by entering into a tax receivable agreement. So the holders of these cash flows are more sort of private equity firms. As a result of the finite fund lives, we step into the breach to provide liquidity to.

Gene Tunny  16:12

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  16:47

Now back to the show. What’s an example of a private equity firm as a Carlyle Group? Is that the sort of group you’re talking about, or KKR?

Andy Lee  16:57

Yeah, all of these massive mega funds all have trs, primarily because they had it for the investment manager themselves when they went public. And subsequent to that the principals realise the disconnect in how the the various markets private and public markets think about it differently. And if they’re extracting value from their portfolio companies, as private equity got more and more competitive?

Gene Tunny  17:25

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it’s, it’s interesting to me, it’s one of these, these niche types of investments. I mean, honestly, I hadn’t heard of them before. You know, actually, there’s not Nishioka. Well, tell me more. 

Andy Lee  17:42

Tax is the largest asset class in a world that no one’s ever heard of. It’s a very much part of the fabric of our society. Like there are so many avenues through which tax assets are expressed, and are monetized. In the US, we have the concept of tax credits, that are now that were historically transferable or monetizable. And now they have direct pay. I don’t know you’ve been to Europe, with your significant other, and may have gone shopping in that regard. In the in Europe, there is what they call it the value added tax for which is a foreign or you can get a refund at the airport. Yep, there’s a huge business, global blue, that’s currently owned by Silverlake, that generates hundreds of million dollars of EBIT da by running the VAT tax refund programme at the airport. Similar to the example I gave you on individual taxes, that in commercial business that basically says to travellers whenever to depart in the EU, hey Jean, instead of waiting to get a check to Australia for that 1000 euros will just give you $700 Today, and they earn a sweat relative to that. There are so many businesses like that, across that run the gamut. And the lack of understanding creates the opportunity because it is the single largest opportunity set that doesn’t have commercial elements to it. And intellectual capital that has been brought to bear. Why is that? primarily driven by the fact that tax professionals here at least here in the US, when people hear attacks, they literally run away all the plug your ears, that like that’s the last thing they ever want to talk about. Every year we have to file on April 15. People consider it like being worse than going to the dentist. So like it’s something that is a very misunderstood and underappreciated even though there’s clear value add that can be created an economics that can be derived from it. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  19:56

yeah, for sure that that example you gave is a very good one. And that’s really helped crystallise in my mind. And so you’re, you’re doing what they’re doing. But with, well, you can compare what you’re doing with what they’re doing, you’re doing it for big corporations or for the private equity companies that have invested in them, they want to get out, you come in, you provide some liquidity, and you take this stream of these, these benefits that they can get from reducing their taxable income so that they will pay you that benefit associated with that in the future. You’ll get it from you get it from the company itself, too. Can you tell us what the agreement like who’s the contract or the Yeah,

Andy Lee  20:42

the agreement is between the TRA holder, then the private equity firm, now parallaxes. And the company every year, yeah, post tax filing season, the company has obligated to deliver a notice to the holders, if they utilise the asset, and the calculation of the refund, at which point of time, they have to repatriate the refund to the holder of the TRA. And so for which every q4 is a little bit like Christmas, we a little bit of an early Christmas, where we started collecting payments for the underlying payment stream. Gotcha.

Gene Tunny  21:24

Okay, so with the example you gave of the business was a silver like the global blue that does the refunds, or they will pay you up front? The VAT or the VAT refund? And they there’s a there’s a discount applied? So they get a benefit they’re taking on? Suppose they’re probably taking on less risk if they’ve got receipts? How do you think about that risk? I mean, what risk is there from, from your point of view? And how do you manage that risk? Yeah,

Andy Lee  22:00

yeah, three primary forms of risk that we manifest. The first and foremost is credit risk. So in global blues example, the EU governments failing and choosing not to, or stepping them on the pavement. For us, it’s more, it’s entirely around is the business going to exist? To the point about do I believe that this is a durable franchise, and will be around in 15 years. And so I have to believe that the company is a going concern will be a going concern, profitable and will exist in earnest. And so that’s a big part of our underwrite. And our focus on these businesses, we’re not looking for a flash in the pan, were looking for long, durable franchises. One on credit risk. The second risk is you never lose your tax asset. Like in the same way, if you don’t go, you don’t use a global blue solution, you still are eligible for the refund for multiple years. So you can go, you can fly back to Australia, on your next trip to Europe, you can file your tax refund. And that has we can do it’s the exact same thing, tax assets never get lost. They’re merely deferred. And so that has the potential to impact our IRR, which is a time weighted measure. But obviously, it’s an extent we collect it, then it doesn’t hurt our total profit dollar or mo YC on the opportunity. The last aspect is around corporate tax rates. So think about a tax acid as being the derivative of two variables, one at the tax asset itself, the notional value of a tax asset, so think about a net operating loss of 100. Think about the tax rate being your price to let’s just say 25% 100 by 25 results in a $25 cash flow. To the extent that tax rates went down and to 20%, then the tax acids 100 by 20, or $20 to the extent and went up 100 by 40, then you get $40. And so relative to most other asset classes, we have an inverse relationship to the primarily because if tax rates went up, equities likely would see some form of a correction downwards. Conversely, on the way up, ever when tax rates went down, equities would likely rally. We have an inverse relationship to that. And so for many of our investors, they view it as a nice tail hedge relative to potential policy changes here in the US.

Gene Tunny  24:47

Gotcha. Okay. So you mentioned a term before MOC. So that is multiple on invested capital. So just clarify that. That makes sense. Right? So, yeah, just thought I’d ask you about that, that risk. Because, you know, whenever you’re swapping these, or you’re taking on these, or that the stream of benefits and you’re providing upfront money, that can be risky. And we saw what happened with Lex Greensville, from the green cell family, which is a dime in Brisbane and Queensland, which is south of Bundaberg, which is where the green cell family farm is. And, you know, he was he was doing great things, but then, you know, he got into got into trouble because he thought he found this, you know, this this thing, this part of the market that no one really was properly servicing before and was providing, you know, he was buying the invoices, I think, wasn’t he and then we’re providing that supply chain finance. And then, you know, it was all working until the pandemic and and companies started delaying payments, and then the whole thing fell over for him. So he was in. And that was a real shame. What happened there real, real, real shock. So yeah, I just just wanted to ask you about the risk, because I like I just wonder, is there a risk here that? Yeah, I just want to make sure you’re I mean, I’m sure you are, you’re crunching the numbers, you’re highly experienced in this in this industry?

Andy Lee  26:22

Yeah, I think for Greensville, I mean, Dale had on the asset side of the equation, to your point, there started to being deferrals or delays to the cash flows that they were receiving, there was a little bit of an asset liability mismatch, whereby they was the liabilities they borrowed heavily, and would deliver at an incredibly aggressive rate. And so that resulted in them being unable to fulfil their obligations on the liability side of the equation today. We have also achieved securitisation. Today, our book is unlevered as we have paid it off, but that is something that we are incredibly conscious about. And look, there’s always that under inherent tail risk. The point is like you should never have too much of a mismatch. And so inherently, it’s we’re always very concerned about not having too high of a leverage level that we will be unable. Should there be shortfalls in our expectations or under writings. Yeah, yeah.

Gene Tunny  27:30

Right might have a look at some of the, what you’ve got on your website. There are some interesting things here on your website here. So I’ll put a link to that in the show notes. So parallaxes capital is an alternative asset manager and as a market leader in monetizing tax receivable agreements. Okay, so I think I’ve got a much better understanding of what that’s all about. And the stats you’ve got on your website, I don’t know if these are still current, but it says 20 Plus tax receivable agreements, purchase so they’re, so they could be large companies like Shake Shack or whatever. REMAX you mentioned that you’ve got these tax receivable agreements from and then it’s $750 million of an discounted principal balance purchase? Could you explain a bit about what what that seven 50 million figure means? Please, Andy,

Andy Lee  28:25

absolutely. Remember the example that I gave you as to the value of a tax asset such as a net operating loss multiplied by a tax rate of a 25%. We own across our portfolio $750 million of cash effective tax assets. So if you want to understand what our notional number is, you do that 750 divided by a 25% tax rate. And you would end up with like $3 billion of notional. So 30 million is what our portfolio over the next 15 years will deliver back to us should deliver back to us. Rod,

Gene Tunny  29:06

okay. And do you provide any indication of what the potential rate of return to investors is?

Andy Lee  29:14

on a net basis? We deliver call it a 15% return. Ron, okay.

Gene Tunny  29:21

Gotcha. And, Ron, so that’s obviously going to compare favourably to to more traditional asset classes, but of course, you know, risk associated with that, and nothing we’re saying here is we’re not I’m not offering any financial or investment advice, of course. Right. And who’s investing in your funds? Andy? So you’re in New York City, I believe. Who who’s investing in your funds? Is it family offices? Is it is it investment, Marilee

Andy Lee  29:54

endowments and foundations as well as small pensions? Right and Oh, CIOs,

Gene Tunny  30:00

endowments, foundations and small, small pensions Did you say confirm

Andy Lee  30:05

as well as address or CIO firms?

Gene Tunny  30:09

Sorry, I’m not familiar with that acronym IC, sorry, what type of firms and

Andy Lee  30:14

outsource Chief Investment Officer firm. Think about smaller endowments may not have the sufficient scale to hire their own research teams to allocate capital. And so they aggregate capital into a larger firm, who then deploys money on their behalf in an outsource format. As a result of that bundling, they’re able to capture economies of scale as well as gain access to best in class managers,

Gene Tunny  30:46

broad Okay, without necessarily recommending, in particular, outsourced CIO, cio firms, you know, any examples of them? I’d be interested in following up on those I can’t say I’ve really come across many of them. There

Andy Lee  31:00

are some huge ones such as a partner’s capital. A Hamilton lane, a stepping stone. Yeah, a Cambridge associates. A RCEP.

Gene Tunny  31:15

Yeah, right. Now, it’s fascinating. I mean, one of the things that our previous guest on my show, David Bahnson, who’s with oh, gee, the name of his firm escapes me, but it’s quite a, he’s got quite a reasonable amount of funds under management. He’s over at over on the West Coast. I mean, one of the points that he makes on on his capital brief show is that the the capital markets in the US are just so deep. There’s just so much. So so much money, obviously, with so much talent and so much creativity and innovation. And, you know, this is what I’m learning today is what I’m seeing today. Is is part of that it’s part of that story. It’s it’s all it’s it’s really fascinating. Yeah, so yeah, thanks for thanks for all this. I’m sorry. So my questions might be, might be a bit bit basic, but I’ve, yeah, there’s

32:14

a lot. We’re all learning together.

Gene Tunny  32:16

Very good. Very good. There’s a lot I’m unfamiliar with in this in this space. So it’s really good. My final question and it relates to a book I’ve been listening to recently. It’s Tony Robbins, his new book, The Holy Grail of investing. I’ve been listening to it on Audible. I don’t know if you’ve come across it at all. But it’s, yeah. It’s very good. Because I mean, one thing about Tony Robbins is that he just knows all of these ultra successful ultra wealthy people and he’s able to pick their brains. So he’s talking to people like Ray Dalio and, and I think Paul Tudor Jones, I think was a client of Tony Robbins. But what he picked up from Ray Dalio is this idea of this holy grail of investing and he asked Ray Dalio for some advice and, and Ray Dalio is best advice to him was, what you’ve got to find is eight to 12, uncorrelated investments for your portfolio. So he’s talking about things that, yeah, they’re uncorrelated, so they’re not going to vary. You know, what’s the right way of thinking about this there? Because the returns are so I suppose unexpected or random relative to everything else, that if you get enough of them, then you should you can outperform the market. So even if the markets in a downturn, you can still be, you can still be doing okay. So I think that’s the that’s the basic idea. I probably haven’t explained that well enough to come back to that. But I think it’s an interesting concept. And, I mean, how do you see this your tax receivable agreements? How do you see them as part of a diversified portfolio or as part of trying to achieve this, this collection of uncorrelated investment assets that Ray Dalio would call the holy grail of investing? Do you have any thoughts on that?

Andy Lee  34:10

Yeah, absolutely. So like, look, there are so many different opportunities that are as a result of an inefficient and inefficiency, opaqueness of a market as well as size of markets that create incredible moats for one to be able to harvest what I might describe as alpha from it. And that alpha isn’t necessarily something that is academic in nature, is just driven by inefficiency. That can be an opportunities like what global blue does. They have a regulatory moat. Like, no one day Oh, there’s only one kiosk at any given airport. There’s only one way for you to get a refund unless you want to go Go home and send multiple stamps and mailing your refund, that inherently has have some exposure to obviously discretionary spending, among others, but you’re looking for opportunities where they’re just such inefficiencies and markets that you’re able to harness that operational alpha, um, that can be created as a result of sourcing. And so like, I think Elliott says, is incredibly well, that they seek to sweat their assets. What they do isn’t difficult. It’s just incredibly laborious. And so that’s what we try to do at parallaxes playing in non traded markets, ie there are no brokers. Unlike a, you can’t buy this on a Bloomberg or on your friendly broker, like those are things that that require you to go out and transact on a individual by individual basis. Is it hard to do? No. Is it something that many want to do? Also very much, that’s not something that many desire to do? The best and the brightest here in the US aren’t looking to make their living and become a master of universe and tax? That’s just not something that occurs? No,

Gene Tunny  36:14

no, certainly isn’t. I think it’s so fascinating. You mentioned I mean, alpha, so you’re going for that excess return, you’re talking about excess return relative to typical market returns. And then you mentioned Elliot, and I’m trying to remember the I don’t know, I can’t remember the name of the whole firm, but as Elliott, the is that the firm that buys distressed debt, and then Sue’s the countries that it’s that it’s bought the debt from

Andy Lee  36:41

most famous for Argentina. Yeah, gotcha. Or Argentina or seizing having seized a warship from Argentina. Rot.

Gene Tunny  36:48

Yeah. Wow. Okay, I’m gonna have to cover them in a future show. That’s fascinating stuff. Okay, Andy, that that’s been do

Andy Lee  36:57

something that many are unwilling to do. Yeah. How many investment firms are willing to confront a country and confiscate a warship?

Gene Tunny  37:08

Yeah, it’s, it’s bold. It’s certainly Absolutely. Right. Okay. And it has been terrific. I’ve learned, I’ve learned a lot. And yeah, so again, it’s an illustration of just those deep capital markets and just the level of, of ingenuity, the level of rigour that is being applied to finance Well, in the US and worldwide. So this is, this is terrific. Oh, finally, I should ask is this just is this mainly a, what you’re doing this? Is this mainly applies to the US, does it? Or do you see it happening in other countries

Andy Lee  37:50

that technology can occur all over the world? Um, that’s likely not something that I thought parallaxes can pursue. Primarily because tax is a very local domain of expertise. You’re not going to have a US tax preparer. help prepare your Australian taxes. They’re just not familiar. They’re barely familiar with Canadian bumper rules, or Mexican tequila taxes. They’re very much not familiar with Australian. It’s just a local domain of expertise. Gotcha.

Gene Tunny  38:20

Okay. Right, Andy, anything else before we wrap up?

Andy Lee  38:24

Nope. Thank you so much for taking the time. No worries, I

Gene Tunny  38:28

will put a link to parallaxes capital on your on the in the show notes. And yeah, refer them to to your material. So if you’re interested in you’re in the audience, and you want to learn more about tax receivable agreements, you can you can check out Andy’s website. Andy, you’re obviously one of the great authorities on this issue. So I would definitely refer people to us. So Andy Lee from parallaxes capital. Thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed the conversation. Take care and be well rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting outlets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

39:47

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Podcast episode

Is Uncle Sam Running a Ponzi Scheme with the National Debt? w/ Dr Dan Mitchell – EP235

In this episode, show host Gene Tunny engages with Dr Dan Mitchell in a frank discussion about the US’s looming debt crisis. The conversation covers Dan’s new book, co-authored with Les Rubin, The Greatest Ponzi Scheme on Earth: How the US Can Avoid Economic Collapse. In the episode, Dan talks about the unsustainable trajectory of federal debt, the consequences of government overspending, and the tough choices needed to avert economic disaster. Hear how Dan reacts to the Modern Monetary Theory view that debt and deficits aren’t a problem.

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored.

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: Dr Dan Mitchell

Daniel J. Mitchell is a top expert on fiscal policy issues such as tax reform, the economic impact of government spending, and supply-side tax policy. Mitchell is a former senior fellow with The Cato Institute and The Heritage Foundation and served as an economist for Senator Bob Packwood and the Senate Finance Committee. His articles can be found in such publications as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Investor’s Business Daily, and Washington Times. He is a frequent guest on radio and television and a popular speaker on the lecture circuit. Mitchell holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in economics from the University of Georgia and a Ph.D. in economics from George Mason University. 

What’s covered in EP235

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • US government debt and entitlement programs. (4:48)
  • Government spending and its impact on the economy. (9:05)
  • US government spending, Social Security, and fiscal policy. (14:06)
  • US retirement systems and entitlement programs. (18:32)
  • Medicare reform and the federal budget. (24:05)
  • US budget deficits and entitlement programs. (27:59)
  • Taxes, spending, and economic growth. (33:01)
  • Kyle Kulinksi clip. (38:11)
  • Dan responds to Monetary Monetary Theory (41:00).  
  • Entitlement programs and government spending. (44:40)

Takeaways

  1. The US federal debt is soaring, with projections showing a large increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio in the coming decades.
  2. Government spending, particularly on entitlement programs, is the primary driver of fiscal imbalance.
  3. Addressing the debt crisis requires significant policy changes, including reforming entitlement programs like Social Security and, to a lesser extent, Medicare and Medicaid.
  4. Reforming Social Security through personal retirement accounts could save trillions over the long run.  
  5. Lessons from other countries show that fiscal discipline and restructuring can improve economic stability.

Links relevant to the conversation

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Transcript: Is Uncle Sam Running a Ponzi Scheme with the National Debt? w/ Dr Dan Mitchell – EP235

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Dan Mitchell  00:04

We had this wonderful opportunity back when we had a much stronger fiscal situation and we blew it. And it could very well be in 30 years. As you know, once we’ve hit that iceberg with our fiscal Titanic’s, you know, sort of the, on the tombstone of the American economy will be. It’s a shame that we had the Monica Lewinsky Bill Clinton scandal because it ruined our chance of saving the country.

Gene Tunny  00:37

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. A lot of thanks for tuning into the show. In this episode, I’m delighted to speak once again with one of my favourite economics commentators Dr. Dan Mitchell, co founder and chairman of the Centre for freedom and prosperity. Dan was previously a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. And earlier in his career, he worked as an economist for a US senator and for the Senate Finance Committee. This episode I’m speaking with Dan about his new book, co authored with entrepreneurs Rubin titled The greatest Ponzi scheme on Earth, how the US can avoid economic collapse. It’s about a rapidly growing US federal debt. The US federal debt is over 120% of GDP currently, and according to the Congressional Budget Office, it will reach 181% of GDP in 2053. In this episode, Dan explains the difficult policy choices that will need to be made for the US to get its debt under control. This episode of economics explored is brought to you by Lumo coffee, which has three times the healthy antioxidants of regular coffee. It seriously healthy organic coffee Lumo offers a 20% discount for economics, explore listeners until the 30th of April 2024. Check out the show notes for details. As always, I’d be interested in what you think about what we discussed this episode. Are you concerned about the ever growing US federal debt? Also, please let me know any ideas you have for how I can improve the show. You can find my contact details in the show notes. Right? Oh, we’d better get into it. I hope you enjoy the episode. Dr. Dan Mitchell, welcome back on to the programme.

02:42

Glad to be with you, Jane.

Gene Tunny  02:44

Yes, it’s excellent. Dan, I’ve enjoyed reading your new book with your co author, Liz Rubin, the greatest Ponzi scheme on Earth,

02:55

how the US can avoid economic collapse. To start off with, could

Gene Tunny  03:02

you explain why do you compare the fiscal situation in the US to a Ponzi scheme, please? Well,

Dan Mitchell  03:09

a Ponzi scheme as your listeners and viewers may know or not know, is when you, in fact, get the sucker people into a game where they pay money. And they’re promised that they’ll get their money back because new people will always come into the game. So if you get the game early, you can wind up winning, but all Ponzi schemes ultimately fall apart. Because they’re your pyramid schemes where however you want to describe them, there just aren’t enough new suckers that join the game to keep it going. So the early people get out, and they make a profit. But the vast majority of people wind up losing their money. And when you look at the budgets, by the way, not just in the United States, but in many Western nations with demographics of ageing populations, and poorly designed entitlement programmes. When the US budget and the budget of a lot of other countries, we’re heading toward disaster because government is growing faster than the private sector. And when government grows faster than the private sector sooner or later, that’s going to lead to massive debt increases massive tax increases massive money printing to finance government spending is just a recipe in the long run for some sort of disaster, and then the United States. We’re like the Titanic sailing toward the iceberg. Except we can see the iceberg. We know what’s going to happen. We know it’s going to be bad news, but politicians, they don’t think past the next election cycle, or at least they don’t act like they do. And as a result, it gets worse every year because they keep adding more spending on top of all the spending already in the pipeline.

Gene Tunny  04:48

Yeah. Can we talk about that, please? Dan, is it true that the US it’s running it’s got a baked in budget deficit, hasn’t it? It’s got a structural budget deficit of several percentage points of GDP. And so that means your debt to GDP ratio is going up by several percentage points of GDP every year. And I’m not sure the exact figure, but are you at something like 100? And is it 130% of GDP or something of that order of magnitude at the moment in terms of debt to GDP, we

Dan Mitchell  05:18

have two measures. And this, this confuses a lot of people, we have gross debt as a share of GDP. And then we have public debt as a share of GDP. The public debt as a share of GDP, I think is the more relevant number, because that’s the calculation of how much money the government has borrowed from the private sector. The gross debt includes the money the government owes itself because we have with programmes like our social security system, which is our pension system in the US. When the government was collecting excess payroll tax revenues, the Social Security system would give those payroll tax revenues to the Treasury, the Treasury would issue government bonds, a special type of government bond and the Social Security system, but it was the government taking money out of one pocket and putting an IOU in the other pocket. It’s only a bookkeeping entry. So so a lot of people when they cite that higher number in the range of 130% of GDP, that’s the gross public debt, which is the real public debt, ie the debt held by the public, plus the the amount of money the government owes itself for these phoney trust funds.

Gene Tunny  06:29

Right, so So what is it roughly I mean, you have, I think, what’s good about your book as you you’re careful to you talk about the actual liabilities, there are some there are the ones that are owed to the bondholders. And then there are also these unfunded liabilities. So you talk about this broader range of liabilities as well, I like that, can you? Can you give us a picture of where the US is now and where it’s heading?

Dan Mitchell  06:55

Well, it’ll be a depressing story. As I already said, the most important thing to worry about is that government spending is growing faster than the private sector. And as long as those trend lines are upside down, where government is growing faster than private sector, that ultimately is a recipe, as I said, for massive tax increases, massive debt increases, and government printing money to finance its budget, Allah, Argentina, at least pre President Malay down there. Now, what accounts for our trouble? Why is government growing faster than their private sector? The main thing is the entitlements. And since we were just talking about public debt, government debt, let me try to explain three different calculations. That held by the public, as we already discussed, is the amount that governments borrowed from the private sector to gross public debt includes the money the government owes itself for the phoney trust funds and Social Security and things like that. But then the really scary number are the unfunded liabilities. And that’s just a measure of how much money the government has committed to pay for various entitlement programmes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and since those programmes are the ones growing the fastest, and says the revenues, even though revenues are growing over time, you know, not only a nominal dollar, not only in inflation adjusted dollars, but even as a percentage GDP, the tax take in the United States is scheduled and projected to increase over the next several decades. The problem is government is projected to grow at a much, much faster rate. And these unfunded liabilities. And as you probably know, Jean, you know, a lot depends on what your projections are interest rates, discount rates, all these other things. But we’re talking potentially several 100 trillion dollars, depending again, what what assumptions you have in your model. And what it really boils down to is massive, long run fiscal imbalance in the United States, because government is simply growing much too fast and, and reuse my metaphor, we are heading for that iceberg. We’re in the Titanic. And it’s very frustrating that we have such short sighted politicians in both parties, by the way, where they just say, Oh, who cares? That’s, that’s a problem for someone in the future. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  09:17

And you talk about this concept of a doom loop. Are we is the US in that doom loop already? Or is that something that could happen in the future? If you

Dan Mitchell  09:27

were to ask me to make a guess? I would be on the pessimistic side. I just don’t think that our current political class has enough responsibility. My former George Mason University professor, the Nobel Prize winner, James Buchanan, we came up with the whole public choice school of economics, analysing what are the incentives facing politicians and bureaucrats, things like that. He and other public choice scholars will sometimes talk about the unwritten constitution And for a long time in the United States, there was this sort of expectation, even among politicians, well, we can’t really mess things up too badly. We have to sort of keep government under control. We can’t let debt spiral out of control. We can have massive, massive money printing or excessive taxation. And so that sort of kept things within check. Unfortunately, I just don’t think those constraints exist anymore. In some cases, I think it’s just pure shallow politics. I don’t care about the future. I’m going to buy votes today, try to accumulate power, make my committee more important, whatever their the incentives are, the politicians have. And in some cases, I think you have genuinely deluded people, especially on the left, who think, Oh, well, bigger government is good for the economy. You know, maybe they’re Keynesians, maybe they’re hardcore socialists, but I’m sure some of them are, are sincere in their beliefs, however diluted they are. But I think the main problem is, is that the politicians simply are so short sighted. They care more about their political careers than they do about the best interests of the country. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  11:07

I think I think you’re right there. Unfortunately, it seems to me, my impression is, is that politicians were more, there was more of a bipartisan consensus. I mean, now you don’t have either party that seems to be concerned about it. But back in the 90s, it seemed to be that there was more of a concerted effort by Congress on both sides of the aisle to get things under control. And then that helped Bill Clinton run some budget surpluses in the 90s. So yeah, even Joe Biden’s as a senator was, was very much in involved in these efforts. Am I reading that correctly? Dan?

Dan Mitchell  11:44

I think you’re basically Correct. You had, especially once the Republicans took over Congress in 1994. You know what sometimes it was called the Gingrich revolution, after being in the minority in Congress for What deal 40 years, the Republicans took the house, they took the Senate, it was a massive landslide win. And to give Bill Clinton credit, he didn’t try to fight it, he gave that famous State of the Union address where he said the era of big government is over, there’s over. And it wasn’t just rhetoric, going for a four year period, following the Republican takeover of Congress, government grew by an average in nominal terms of only 2.9% a year. And that was when we went from these massive $200 billion plus deficits. Now, of course, that seems small when we’re talking about reading today. But back then everyone was worried that was some threshold and you’ve crossed over it, you were being very irresponsible. Well, those big deficits turned into budget surpluses within a very short period of time, why government road grew at an average of 2.9% a year. And nominal GDP, of course, was growing much faster than that. And since revenue tends to track nominal GDP, that meant revenue was growing faster. So we had a bigger and bigger private sector, and relatively speaking, a smaller and smaller burden of government spending. Now, we got the budget surplus, but you know, when I think mattered, even more government spending as a share of GDP declined, because as Milton Friedman informed us many decades ago, the burden of government is not how much in taxes, it’s how much it spends. Because whether you you finance that government spending with borrowing with printing money, or with taxing, you’re diverting resources from the productive sector of the economy, so a lot of people in the US are very fixated on reading deficits, and that, Oh, that’s terrible. Well, they are bad. But government spending is the real problem. That’s what we need to get under control. And if we get government under control, make sure that the private sector is growing faster than the government, you’re gonna get rid of reading, you’re maybe not in one year, maybe not two years. And given the magnitude of the problem we face today, it might even take five years or 10 years. But so long as government spending is constrained, you’re eventually going to solve your problems of reading. And but the key thing to understand is government spending is the underlying problem. Red ink is simply a symptom of the problem.

Gene Tunny  14:14

Yeah, one of the strong points you make in the book is that the US Treasury itself, it’s issued warnings about this, hasn’t it? That this current fiscal path is unsustainable. So is this Janet Yellen is treasury. Does that mean that Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary knows this problem? And presumably she’s, I mean, you hope she’s telling, you know, Biden, and you know, the people in the West Wing about this. So where does the what’s going wrong? Is it in Congress? Is it the fact that it’s all just politically too hard that you’ve got these entitlements baked into the system? Well, what’s going on? What’s going wrong?

Dan Mitchell  14:52

I don’t know what Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary tells Joe Biden or for that matter, the Director of the Office of Management Budget, theoretically in charge of the spending side of budget, but whatever they’re telling him, Joe Biden’s budgets are terrible. He does have massive tax increases. And some people say, Oh, look, he’s serious about the deficit. He wants to raise taxes. But he’s always proposing massive spending increases. And of course, what do we know about tax increases, they never generate as much revenue as the politicians think because people change their behaviour. But also, whenever there’s an expectation of higher revenue in Washington, politicians can’t resist increasing spending. So Biden’s budgets were ever enacted. I would bet dollars to donuts that we would have more brand A we would have higher deficits, for those two reasons. So I don’t think you and again, is it Biden’s fault? Is it is it his appointees fault? Who knows who cares? The the key thing to understand is, he has terrible fiscal policy. He seems to be captured by sort of the Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren wing of the Democratic Party. And frankly, there really isn’t a bill clinton wing of the Democratic Party anymore. That’s that’s the problem. So, you know, Joe Biden, when he was a senator went along with Bill Clinton’s more free market economic agenda in the 1990s. But now, Joe Biden is doing the Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders agenda. And unfortunately, you know, Republicans have sort of lost that that old Tea Party zeal for fiscal responsibility and spending restraint. And that makes it very depressing for people like me, who work on fiscal policy in Washington.

Gene Tunny  16:35

Yes, yes. In terms of what can be done about it. So I had a guest on a couple of weeks ago, Michael Johnston is a in the in the finance industry. And he’s and he’s had a look at it. And you know, he’s we talked about the retirement age, we talked about the contributions, changes to the payroll tax contributions. We talked about, you know, different options for reforming Social Security. And you cover those in your book, many, I think, similar ones, but you’ve got a transition plan, which I think is really interesting, because there’s this recognition that the trust fund is exhausted to the or what happens is that when they run out of those IOUs, that the Treasury put in there, I mean, the cash went a long time ago. But when you get to a certain point, and then they have to cut benefits, don’t they? There’s a there’s a point in 2033, or whatever it is, but you’ve got a plan for improving that or getting out of that situation fixing up social security over I think it’s a 20 year period. Can you explain that plan, please, Dan,

Dan Mitchell  17:46

the problem we have with Social Security is that the spending and the programme is growing much faster than the revenues going into the programme. And as a result, this mythical trust fund is being depleted, the IOUs are being cashed in, which simply means the Treasury’s borrowing more money. But the trust fund, you know, as funny as it is, it’s still an important bookkeeping entry. And that’s going to run out in the early half of the first half of next decade. And then, technically, under the law, there’ll be an automatic cut and benefits for senior citizens of more than 20%. Now, will politicians allow that to happen? Probably not, you know, they could pass a lot tomorrow and add five zeros to every IOU in the trust fund. And on paper, that would solve the problem. But of course, it would only solved the problems by having Uncle Sam just issue hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars, and eventually trillions and trillions of dollars of new debt. So given the ageing of our population, and given the fact that Social Security is so poorly designed, in the book, less Reuben and I proposed to, in effect, do something similar to what you guys have in Australia, have a system of personal retirement accounts based on real savings. Now, you guys sort of just adopted it out of nothing. We have this giant unfunded liability and poorly designed Social Security system. And so our challenge is going to be entirely different. Because if we allow younger workers to start, in effect, shifting their payroll taxes into personal retirement accounts, how are we going to pay the benefits to current retirees, or to workers who are too old to benefit from a new system? And that’s what’s called the transition cost. And the transition costs, frankly, will be enormous. You’re talking 10s of trillions of dollars over the next 20 years. And some people say, Oh, my God, we can’t do that. 10s of trillions of dollars when we already have this giant amount of government debt. Well, here’s the here’s the most important thing to understand the unfunded liability. The cash flow deficit of The Social Security system over the next 75 years, and inflation adjusted dollars is more than $60 trillion. So here’s the choice, we have in the US two choices, to keep the current system going with a giant $60 trillion plus cash flow deficit, or transition to a system of personal retirement accounts, which $20 trillion or more of transition costs. Now, I don’t like having to make that choice. But if I’m going to have to make a choice, I’d rather have a $20 trillion problem to deal with than a $60 trillion problem to deal with. And then at the end of the day, wouldn’t it be great to have a retirement system based on private savings, rather than a government retirement system that’s untrustworthy, that’s based on taxes and debt. So I think Australia, not just Australia, Switzerland, Netherlands, Sweden, Chile, you know, there are several dozen countries around the world that now have much stronger and retirement systems that are better for national economies, but retirement systems that also are better for individual workers. So that’s a giant challenge for the United States. We almost did it, by the way, during the Clinton years. And that’s what’s so tragic. rebill Clinton was on board, he understood the issue, Republicans and Congress understood the issue. But then we got that whole impeachment thing, and Bill Clinton had to move to the left to shore up the Democratic base. And as a result, we had this wonderful opportunity back when we had a much stronger fiscal situation, and we blew it. And it could very well be in 30 years. As you know, once we’ve hit that iceberg with our fiscal Titanic’s sort of the, the tombstone of the American economy will be it’s a shame that we had the Monica Lewinsky Bill Clinton scandal because it ruined our chance of saving the country. Right? Yeah, yeah. Yeah, that’s

Gene Tunny  22:02

a that’s a good political observation there. Dan. I think that a lot of the maybe a lot of the craziness does date from from that episode. That was an extraordinary of a so now, what about Medicare? I mean, one of the other issues is Medicare and Medicaid, do you have recommendations for those programmes to

Dan Mitchell  22:25

the good news about Medicare and Medicaid is that those problems are much easier to deal with and Social Security. With Medicaid. That’s the easiest one of all because, and that, by the way, for your your listeners and viewers outside of the United States, Medicaid is the federal government’s programme, to provide health care to poor people. And what we should do to that programme is what we did under Bill Clinton with welfare reform in the 1990s. Simply take the programme, block, grant it and turn it over to the states. And then the states would then have full flexibility to innovate and experiment, figure out the best way and most cost efficient way of providing health care to low income people, and that work fantastically with welfare reform. We reduce poverty, we reduce child poverty, we increase labour force participation among low income people. So let’s learn from that success and fix the Medicaid programme. Wonderful, simple choice. We actually almost did it during the Trump years. I mean, Trump was very irresponsible in many areas on government spending. But Congress came within one vote in the Senate from making that reform is another one of these tragic things of history, that, that we didn’t take that opportunity. But maybe it can happen in the next four years, because that’s an issue where we’re, I think Trump is open to doing the right thing. Now let’s shift to Medicare. Now, Joe Biden has said no changes to Medicare, that’s irresponsible. Donald Trump has said no changes to Medicare, that’s fiscally irresponsible. So it’s very hard for me to be optimistic about anything happening on this programme in the next few years. But let’s explain what should be done. And again, for your overseas listeners and viewers. Medicare is the federal government’s programme to provide health care for old people, Medicaid, health care for poor people, Medicare, health care for old people. I’m on Medicare, because I’m 65. So you have to sign up. So I know I’m part of the problem now. But the simple way to solve that, and by the way, Republicans back during the Tea Party era, in the early part of last decade, they had budgets, the Paul Ryan budgets that fix both Medicare and Medicaid and what they did with Medicare at the end of that they looked at the Health Care programme for federal government workers for the Federal Employees Health Benefits programme. And in effect, what it does is it tells federal bureaucrats, here are your choices and health plans. You pick the one that that best serves you the federal gov reds can provide a certain amount of support to premium support. So we subsidise the plans, but you pick the plan that you want. Well, let’s do the same thing with senior citizens. Give everyone this sort of voucher if you want to call it that, and then let them pick from from a range of approved plans. And then of course, if you limit how fast the premium support grows, you could wind up saving trillions and trillions of dollars over time. Just like with the Medicaid block grant, you can save trillions and trillions of dollars over time, so long as you keep the growth of either the block grant or the premium support from growing slower than the private sector. So fixing Medicare and Medicaid shouldn’t be that difficult, not nearly as big of a fiscal challenge as fixing Social Security. But of course, it will be a political challenge, because we saw back when Paul Ryan was trying to fix these programmes. last decade, you had you had folks on the left running campaign commercials of a Paul Ryan look like pushing a grandmother off a cliff. It gives you an idea of the kind of silly demagoguery we get in US elections. But the good news is Republicans several years in a row during the Tea Party era, they were passing budgets that presumed Medicaid and Medicare reform. Now, Bill Clinton was in the White House, obviously, these programmes died in Congress because they couldn’t get any farther than that. But if Republicans can sort of rediscovered that Ronald Reagan, Tea Party type spirit of fiscal responsibility, I think there is a chance maybe not with Trump in the White House. But at some point, you know, I think there’ll be a Reagan type conservative in the White House. And those programmes can and should and must be fixed. We discuss that in the book we explain, you know, we don’t go into great details, we don’t want to bore just the average reader. The whole purpose of the book is to explain and common sense language with lots of facts, but not bearing people with jargon and stuff like that. Here is our problem. Here’s the direction we’re going that direction is going to be a disaster. But if we make these reforms, we can we can make America much more prosperous.

Gene Tunny  27:19

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  27:24

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Gene Tunny  27:53

Now back to the show. Okay, and what about defence, Stan? So there’s a you know, reasonably widespread view that I mean, the Pentagon waste money? I mean, I think that’s undeniable. It’s failed six or seven audits. There are concerns about unnecessary, costly military adventures abroad. 7 trillion or whatever. There’s all of these astronomical estimates for what the, you know, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria has cost the US and will continue to cost in the future. Is there anything that should be done about defence in your view?

Dan Mitchell  28:34

I’m sure there must be hundreds of billions of dollars of waste, and the Pentagon, but we focused in the book, what are the long term drivers of our fiscal problems, and it’s, it’s not the defence budget, the defence budget has, has keeps coming down as a percentage of the budget over time. Or if you measure the defence budget as a share of GDP, it’s come down. Obviously, we don’t want to waste money anywhere, even if it’s not the driving force and driving problem in the budget. But defence is not the issue. Now. That doesn’t mean we should do costly nation building exercises in the Middle East. But on the other hand, I’m not enough defence foreign policy expert. But given what Russia is doing, and given China’s sabre rattling in the South China Sea and stuff like that, I’m not sure I would want to radically slashed the defence budget, I would probably want to reorganise it. So we’re more focused on being able to protect America’s national interest. But but that’s separate from I guess, a fiscal debate. Again, fiscal fiscally speaking, the defence budget is is just a tiny fraction of our problem. And that’s even part of the problem at all.

Gene Tunny  29:47

Right? Because it’s these, these entitlement programmes where you’ve got that fundamental problem of the spending ghetto, getting away from any revenue that’s coming into town, you know, to fund them. So yeah. And take that point. Right, and why isn’t higher? I mean, I think you make a good a good case for why this is a spending problem. It’s not a just a low tax problem. Can you explain why you wouldn’t want? The government has to address this fiscal gap through higher taxes? Please, Dan?

Dan Mitchell  30:22

Well, I guess there are two things that are important to understand. The Congressional Budget Office every year publishes a long run forecast. And by long run, they’re looking out 30 years, they published his long run forecast of the US economy. And in that document, the most recent one came out just last month, I think it was maybe two months ago. But it showed that revenues are above their long run average. Spending is also above the long run average. And if you look at the forecast, 30 years out, the revenue burden is going to climb to record levels, because mostly because of real bracket creep. In other words, as you know, even in a sluggish growth economy, you know, people are going to sort of their incomes are going to increase, they’re gonna go into higher tax brackets. So the government winds up getting bonus tax payments, with even modest levels of economic growth. So the tax burden is heading to be at an all time high. But because government spending is projected to grow much faster than the private sector, it means that, that we’re falling farther and farther behind. So just as a matter of pure math, our problem is more than 100%. on the spending side of the budget. Again, revenue is climbing as a share of GDP. But because spending is climbing much, much faster. Why on earth would we want to increase taxes on the American people for a problem that is more than 100%? on the spending side of the budget. But that’s just the math argument. Now, let’s look at what I call the public choice slash economic issue, which is that if you put taxes on the table, what are politicians going to do, they’re going to increase spending. And not only that, if they get the taxes throw, the economy’s gonna suffer. Now, I’m never one to say, Oh, you raised this tax or that tax, there’s going to be a recession, I worry more about if you raise this texture, that tax, the long run growth rate will decline. And even if it only declines a small amount, maybe two tenths of 1%, a year that has massive long run implications because of the wedge effect over time. And then, and I think that even left wing economists, the honest ones are going to admit that higher marginal tax rates on work saving and investing are not good for growth. So as GDP gets smaller and smaller over time, at least in terms of compared to some baseline projection, that means foregone tax revenue, because there’s less national income to tax. So what’s the bottom line, politicians will spend more money because of the higher taxes and the higher taxes won’t generate as much revenue? And you don’t want to know what the most powerful evidence for this is? I think I get the data for the, for the 15 countries of the old European Union, in other words, the core Western European countries that would be most analogous to the United States or, for that matter, Australia, relatively rich by world standards, Western oriented nations. And what did I show in the European Union, you go back and I did a five year average. So nobody could accuse me of cherry picking just one year that was favourable to my analysis. I did a five year average for the last half of the 1960s. And I looked at government spending as a share of GDP, taxes of the share of GDP, and government debt as a share of GDP, and taxes between the end of the 1960s. And the most recent five years, the tax burden in Western Europe increased by 10 percentage points of GDP. Now, politicians in Western Europe and these various countries Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands, etc, etc. They said, Well, we have to raise taxes, because we have red ink, we have deficits and debt. So I said, Okay, taxes went up by an enormous amount as a share of GDP between the late 60s and today. What happened to government debt, they use this massive increase in the tax burden to lower government debt, no government debt during that period, doubled as a share of GDP. In other words, politicians spend every single penny of that new revenue plus some. So when I debate some of my left wing friends, I tell them, show me an example. Anywhere in the world, where we’re giving politicians more money to spend has resulted in better long run fiscal performance. It just doesn’t happen. By contrast, I’ve gone through the IMS World Economic Outlook Database, and I found not a lot unfortunately, but I found many examples of countries that for multi year periods had government spending growing at 2%? a year or less? And what do you find, in those cases when they’re spending restraint. And we talked about this, by the way, we have an entire chapter in the book, where I cite some of these good examples. When you have spending restraint. Deficits go down the burden of government spending, as a share of GDP goes down, you have success. Yeah, I couldn’t, we could add some blank pages in the book, and lift and title that chapter success stories of higher taxes, because there wouldn’t be anything to write.

Gene Tunny  35:32

Very good. And you saw it studies by OECD and IMF, I think that do establish that empirical link between taxes and growth and negative link. If you have a higher tax to GDP, you have a lower economic growth rate. If I’m if I remember correctly, you cite some of those studies. So I can put links in there.

Dan Mitchell  35:53

It is remarkable that the OECD and then the IMF, by and large are sort of, I don’t know whether you’d call them left leaning bureaucracies, but drug pushers controlled by government bureaucrats who respond to their political paymasters in Washington and Berlin and Brussels and Paris. And so you get a lot of bad advice from the IMF and the OECD. But both of those international bureaucracies have economics departments that do working papers and studies. And even though these studies don’t get a lot of attention, I look at them. And it’s remarkable how often those studies point to the fact that spending restraint, and low tax rates are good for growth, while at the same time to political appointees at the IMF and the OECD. They go around the world saying government should raise taxes and increase spending. So I’m not a fan of international bureaucracies. He has the leadership of the International bureaucracies. They respond to pressure from national capitals around the world. And unfortunately, when you have Joe Biden, and the US and your Sunak, in the United Kingdom, might as well be a Labour Party, Prime Minister, and then of course, he macarons No, good. Schultz. I mean, we just have so many bad left wing governments and the major countries of the world that you wind up with the OECD and the IMF responding to their pressure to give bad advice, even though many of the economists that work at those bureaucracies, publish papers that have findings that that good economists would agree with.

Gene Tunny  37:22

Yeah, yeah. Yeah, they’re not motivated by the politics. They just want to do the the analysis, crunch the numbers and come up with credible findings. So absolutely. Dan, before we wrap up, I’d like to play you a clip, which I think is it’s representative of all the the opposite view to yours. And, and in a way, it’s almost like when I listened to it yesterday, I thought is this Kyle Kolinsky actually talking about Dan, but I think he’s just thinking generally about other, you know, economists and what economists are not and what I think mainstream economists think about the dead. I don’t think this is necessarily a libertarian economist view. So I want to play this and then get your reactions to it because it’s, it’s quite a quite a fascinating clip.

Kyle Kulinski  38:11

Your line of attack against both Trump and Biden is the debt. That’s the first thing you list the existential issue of the debt. Okay, let’s be clear, guys, that is simply a right wing argument. That’s like the libertarian economics types, the Austrian economics types. The idea that, you know, the nation’s debt is you should conceptualise it the same as household debt. Like if you have household debt, you only have a choice, you kind of have to pay it off. Like you have to. It appears like RFK has no idea how the national debt functions, especially when you have a sovereign currency. He should read up not only on Keynesianism, but on modern monetary theory, because all this debt and deficit fear mongering, I just need to understand this. It’s the dumbest shit of all time. It’s just the dumbest shit of all time. Just just to give one example, Japan has had a lot of debt for a long time. And even their debt to GDP ratio was kind of out of whack. And a lot of like, right wing wall street types have been predicting forever, a debt crisis that’s going to hit Japan. And it never comes. They’ve been saying it since like the 1990s. That that’s gonna happen. It never comes. Why? Because they fundamentally misunderstand what the national debt is, what it means to run a deficit, how that impacts the economy. Here’s a fact that a lot of people don’t know. Did you know that public debts lead to private growth? Right. So from that perspective, you might even say in many instances, public debt is a good it’s just a good thing. Not it’s a bad thing. We got to fear it. You know, this is bad and wrong, and we need to reverse it and we need to Make sure we cut it. No. In some instances, it’s a good thing. Like there are very positive outcomes that come from public debt. And again, I don’t, I don’t think he understands it, that public debt means private surpluses. That is like, that’s the lifeblood, certainly of a capitalist economic system.

Gene Tunny  40:21

Right. So that was Carl Kolinsky, who’s a very prominent progressive commentator in the, the US and he was responding to something RFK Jr. said, he told Erin Burnett on CNN, regarding how he sees the dead as an accident, an existential threat to the US. And he’s worried that neither Biden nor Trump are actually that concerned about it, or will will do anything about it. So Dan, do you have any thoughts on I mean, that particular viewpoint, I’d be interested in your reactions to that because it is it does seem to be a common view among, among many people out there.

Dan Mitchell  41:00

But I never thought I would agree with RFK, Jr. on something, but he is right about Trump and Biden. They don’t care about that. But I would change the focus. My concern with Trump and Biden is that they don’t care about the growth of government. And as we’ve already talked about, Jean, that growth of government is the problem. The growth of debt is a symptom of the problem. Now, there’s no question that, that a lot of people who do fixate on the debt, have pointed to Japan and said, Oh, this, this is not going to end well. And, and I think those people are right, but it’s always a danger to imply that crisis will happen overnight. Now, having said that, let’s Ruben and I, at the start of our book, we give a little story. We say imagine that you’re Greek, and that you’re living in Greece in the mid 2000s. And everything seems great. You’re now part of the euro, your interest rates have come down, your economy is growing 4% a year. And sure there are some people complaining, well, wait, our demographics aren’t friendly, and our government debt is too high and government’s growing too fast. But you don’t care as a great citizen, because the government’s giving you lots of benefits. And it seems like the economy is just fine. And you think, oh, this person is just, you know, crying wolf. Well, guess what, within five years, your economies and one of the most massive, severe economic downturns that we’ve seen in the modern history of the Western world, and then, you know, their living standards dropped by 25%. In Greece, it was a horrible wrenching experience, because they got to the point where what happened were investors didn’t trust the Greek government. Now, we’re used to that with third world countries or developing countries, I guess we don’t use third world anymore. Why? Why has Argentina defaulted so many times because at least before President Malay, they’ve had all these Coronas governments that would spend money, borrow money, print, print money to finance their budgets. And then they got to a point where international investors said, I’m not gonna buy any bonds from that, from that government. That’s when you have a fiscal crisis, when investors no longer trust your government to pay back the bonds when they borrow money. Now, is Japan going to hit that? That that that crisis point? I think at some point, they probably will, because their demographics are really challenging. They have the entitlement problems, and government debt is more than 20% of GDP. And now, yes, they got the Japanese government has certain regulations, that sort of forces, a lot of private savings into buying government bonds. But at some point, you have to wonder they’re gonna run out of time. And I think the same thing will happen to the United States if we don’t get control of government spending. So I disagree with the gentleman whose clip that you played. I think that government debt is a troubling symptom of a bigger problem of government growing too fast. And I think Greece isn’t is a real world. Not that far ago, example of how that won’t end well. And yes, the US is the world’s reserve currency. We can print a bunch of money. But the mere fact that that guy was citing modern, modern monetary theory, the biggest crank theory that you could possibly imagine that you can sum up print your way to prosperity if that was true. Why isn’t Venezuela the most prosperous country on the planet? So I don’t know what that guy was smoking but that must be really fun.

Gene Tunny  44:40

Yeah, but look, it is. It is actually a an increasingly common view among particularly younger younger people. So I think it’s it’s interesting, he’s very influential on in those progressive circles in the state so that I get your reaction from that. Okay to that Okay, Dan, this has been terrific go. Yeah, I really enjoyed your book, I’m really gonna recommend it. I’ll put a link in the show notes. I learned a lot I learned about, you know, exactly what’s happening with Social Security in this days for the trust fund. That’s fascinating how it’s full of IOUs, how there’s going to be this, this critical point in in 2032, or 33. And I chatted about that with Michael Johnston as well, that will, hopefully for some type of action is not just some sort of, you know, putting in a couple of zeros, as you suggest that they could do, they could just say, Oh, look, all is good. We’ll just give you some, you know, pretend you’ve got more money in that trust fund. Let’s say they actually do something about that. And also liked you cite Switzerland as an exemplar of a of a, of a country that appears to be doing things really well. And in federal, the federalism there, the Federation could help because there’s the cantons compete with each other. They don’t want to have high taxes, they want to attract people. So I think that’s a good example. So yeah, definitely learned a lot from the book. Is there anything you’d like to say before we wrap this up, please, Dan?

Dan Mitchell  46:09

Well, of course, I recommend that people buy the book. I suspect, given that it’s a wonky topic, we’ll never sell enough that we get any royalties to speak of. So I want people to buy the book, not to not to put money in my pockets. But to understand what our problem is. Government is growing too fast. We have so many real world examples of countries that have done good things and bad things in the book. We have very accessible, easy to understand explanations of what’s wrong with our entitlement programmes, to solutions to fix those problems. And all I know is that I don’t want to be that Greek citizen in 2005, who 10 years later, was suffering through a deep, deep economic downturn because my politicians never got spending under control.

Gene Tunny  46:58

Yeah, yeah. Very good point. Okay, Dan Mitchell. This has been great. Thanks so much for appearing on the show. I’ve really enjoyed it.

Dan Mitchell  47:05

Well, thanks, Lucky. Thanks for having me on.

Gene Tunny  47:09

rato, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com, or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

47:56

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Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

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Podcast episode

What’s the Future for Charter Cities after the Honduras ZEDE controversy? w/ Jeffrey Mason, Charter Cities Institute  – EP234

In this episode, we delve into the controversy surrounding the Prospera charter city in Honduras, which has embraced libertarian principles and adopted Bitcoin as legal tender and a unit of account. The city is currently embroiled in a legal battle with the Honduran government. Gene asks Jeffrey Mason, from Charter Cities Institute, what it all means for the future of charter cities. Jeffrey provides some good examples of how charter cities still have a lot of potential, and he talks about projects CCI is involved in in Africa, particularly in Zanzibar. Tune in to gain insights into the intersection of governance, economics, and innovation in the context of charter cities.

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: Jeffrey Mason, Head of Research, Charter Cities Institute 

Jeffrey joined CCI as a Researcher in 2019. His research interests include urban economics, structural transformation, special economic zones, and technology ecosystems. He has worked on policy advisory projects in Nigeria, Tanzania, Zambia, and Honduras, among other countries. Prior to joining the Charter Cities Institute, Jeffrey worked as an MA Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He holds a BA in economics from the University of Maryland and an MA in economics from George Mason University. His writing has been featured in publications including City Journal, Works in Progress, Investment Monitor, Quartz Africa, and The American Mind.

What’s covered in EP234

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • Honduran ZEDEs: zones for employment and economic development. (4:12)
  • Honduran ZEDEs and impacts on local communities. (9:41)
  • Investor-state dispute settlement mechanisms. (15:15)
  • Charter cities and their potential to improve governance and economic growth. (20:37)
  • Charter cities and urban development in Zanzibar. (26:15)
  • Affordable housing development in Zanzibar, Tanzania. (30:56)
  • Urban development and new city projects. (39:27)

Takeaways

  1. The controversy surrounding Prospera in Honduras highlights the risks and uncertainties involved in charter city projects.
  2. The concept of charter cities is evolving, with a growing emphasis on affordability, local engagement, and sustainable development to ensure their long-term success.
  3. Legal and political stability, along with government partnerships, are crucial for the success of charter cities, as demonstrated by the contrasting experiences of Prospera and the Zanzibar project, Fumba Town, that Charter Cities Institute is involved in.

Links relevant to the conversation

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Lumo Coffee Discount: Visit Lumo Coffee (lumocoffee.com) and use code EXPLORED20 for a 20% discount until April 30, 2024.

Transcript: What’s the Future for Charter Cities after the Honduras ZEDE controversy? w/ Jeffrey Mason, Charter Cities Institute  – EP234

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Jeff Mason  00:03

When you’re not adding in that governance component, right, it’s essentially it’s a real estate project. And that’s, you know, that’s all well and fine. But if you’re going to be doing a large scale, something that is truly city scale that’s going to be home to 10s, or hundreds of 1000s, or, or maybe even millions. And when that the grandest scale, it actually makes a lot of sense to pair that type of development with some sort of effort to improve governance.

Gene Tunny  00:35

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning into the show. One story that’s caught my attention recently is the controversy over the Prospera charter city in Honduras. It was inspired by libertarian principles and is adopted Bitcoin as legal tender and as a unit of account, but it’s in a big legal dispute with the current Honduran government. I was alerted to this by a report from Ryan Grim at the intercept on juris ratchets up battle with crypto libertarian investors, rejects World Bank caught me talked about this story on his counterpoints YouTube show. It’s a crazy story and I wanted to talk with someone knowledgeable about it. So I reached out to the charter cities Institute. I’ve previously spoken with the head of CCI Curtis Lockhart, and I’m grateful that he recommended I speak with his colleague Jeffrey Mason. Jeff is Head of Research at the charter cities Institute and he really helped clarify the issues for me. Is the Honduran charter city an exceptional case? Or is there a fundamental problem with the charter city model? Jeff helped me figure out what’s going on. And he reminded me that the charter cities Institute is doing things differently. And he talks about a fascinating development on Zanzibar that it’s involved with. There are some more details on CCI as approach to charter cities in the episode that I recorded with Curtis lockout two years ago. So I’ll put a link to that in the show notes, so you can check it out if you’re interested. This episode of economics explored is brought to you by Lumo coffee, which is three times the healthy antioxidants of regular coffee. It’s seriously healthy, organic coffee, where my coffee offers a 20% discount for economics explore listeners until the 30th of April 2020. For details are in the show notes. Right, I would better get into it. I hope you enjoy the episode. Jeffrey Mason from charter cities Institute, welcome to the programme.

Jeff Mason  03:06

Adrian, thanks for having me.

Gene Tunny  03:08

It’s a pleasure. It’s good to reconnect with the charter cities Institute because I had Curtis Lockhart on the show a couple of years ago to talk about charter cities. And it’s certainly been of of interest to me for quite a while that the whole idea of I mean, initially they’ll talk there was talk about special economic zones. And there’s this concept of charter cities came about. And I was reminded of it recently because this has been really crazy news story in Honduras about these so called crypto libertarian investors who have been suing the Honduran government for removing the legislative underpinnings of, of I think it’s Prospera, is it the charter city? That’s on an island in Honduras? And yeah, it’s just as really bizarre story. Are you older? What’s your take? Jeffrey, on what actually went wrong in Honduras?

Jeff Mason  04:12

Sure. It’s yeah, it’s a little a little messy, a little complicated. So maybe a little bit of backstory is probably in order. Some of your listeners may know this story, be familiar with with prosper, and some of the other day some, some may not. So back in the late 2000, around 2009 ish. Paul Romer, who had who was sort of the original guy who came up with the idea of charter cities, he connected with some folks in the Honduran government who had sort of independently been interested in some similar ideas. And they came together passed a law in Honduras that would have essentially created charter cities. That law was repealed because of some some constitutional concerns and then later a new law that rectified some of those concerns was was put through due to some sort of disputes Rome or departed. And then there was sort of some some constitutional disputes about Supreme Court rulings on that law and the previous public government that did come to power and pushed out the other one. Right. It’s it’s it’s kind of messy, but the law as of like 2012 2013. authorising Zetas zones for economic development and employment are in place. A few years went by with not much happening. The government hadn’t hadn’t really taken action to sort of appoint the necessary people to the oversight body. And then I believe 2019 What would become prosperous? Was was established as the first of what is now three Zetas. So prosper, as as some folks may know, it’s on the island of Roatan on the Caribbean side of Honduras. And it’s being developed as this jurisdiction sort of focused on emerging technologies, biomedical innovation, crypto and financial services, and has some really interesting and really novel approaches to governance, in terms of how folks who choose to live or do business there, can sort of select how they’re given options about how they’re regulated. And it’s a really sort of fascinating project, just sort of looking at pushing the frontier of governance. There’s a second set A, that folks, some folks may be familiar with it, it’s not quite as high profile called ciudad and what is on so this one is on the mainland, near the cities of Jalama, in San Pedro Sula, kind of in Honduras is main manufacturing region. So this one is sort of focused on creating very affordable housing, and good jobs in light industry, logistics, manufacturing, that sort of thing. And then there’s a third in the south of the country that’s focused on agriculture, agro processing, greenhouse agriculture, that sort of thing. And so in the last few years, the government’s change change parties, and the government came in was was very, very opposed to the that regime, and had been critical of it of it for years. And so when they came into power, you know, Goal, goal number one for them was was to rollback because that is. And so what they ended up doing was, they eventually pass a repeal of the xFA law. But for it to sort of be fully completed, it needed to be not just passed, but also ratified. And within the sort of legislative calendar of when the initial repeal went through. The repeal was never ratified. So we ended up in this weird sort of legal limbo, where the government is trying to repeal the law, but it’s not quite repealed. And even though the way they’re going about it, is being argued by prosper and others, that it’s in violation of some of these different trade treaties and other things that would have essentially locked the law in place. Even if you wanted to go ahead with the repeal, there would be this sort of much longer, sort of off ramp period and certain sort of investor rights guaranteed and this sort of thing. And so now prosper is suing the government of Honduras and international arbitration for damages. Or they’ve either secured or, or have pledged over $100 million in investment. So that’s that’s obviously quite a big deal. That’s sort of been disrupted. And so now prosper is seeking damages from the Honduran governments. And then earlier this year, as that has sort of developed, the government of Honduras has now said they are going to pull out of the investor state dispute settlement process that’s run by the Royal Bank. So so quite quite a messy tumultuous couple of years, but but the Zetas as they exist now, you know, under quite some some hardship, obviously, for the for the time being, they are continuing, right.

Gene Tunny  09:33

So the zeros themselves are continuing, is that the actual zone so they’re still operational? Right. Okay.

Jeff Mason  09:39

They’re still they’re still doing business. Right. Okay. So

Gene Tunny  09:41

there are a couple of things you’re interested in, following up here. So you’ve got this change of government, and is it the case that it will assist you president is it Castro and was it she just the shoes of the left so as she objected into the Zed A’s because it’s against her government’s general economic philosophy? Or is it because of concerns about impacts on indigenous people? I recall that the United Nations or I saw that the United Nations had some things to say about potential impacts on indigenous communities. Do you know what the what was the problem that the government had with the Zed A’s? Sure.

Jeff Mason  10:23

So there’s, there’s a couple pieces to it. One, I think it is, is partly political, and sort of a matter of philosophy and right, how they, how they feel about free markets and those kinds of things. The concerns about indigenous groups have been raised since the 70s, first came into existence. But to my knowledge, nothing in terms of those groups, or their land or anything like that has has ever actually been sort of touched by by any other three days in any way. And then it also just goes back, I think, to the essentially coup in 2009, that pushed out that party’s previous presidents and sort of long standing issues with the president who who wasn’t charged who had originally champion this that a regime who, right ended up being extradited to the US related to drug trafficking. So there’s, there’s a, there’s a political there’s, there’s a, you know, philosophical difference. And then there’s also some of the politics of it as well. Right.

Gene Tunny  11:32

And so from the government’s perspective, so if I’m sitting in the finance ministry, in Honduras, what am I seeing, am I seeing we’ve got this special economic zone, or Zed A, and we’ve got these foreign coal corporations operating there. And they’re generating income, but we’re not able to tax them, or are there any subsidies? What’s the deal? What the financial arrangements are? What how does it? You know, what’s the what’s the finance ministry seen in Honduras?

Jeff Mason  12:04

Sure. So in that regard, it’s it’s there’s there is a it’s a fairly disconnected system in the sense that these entities are kind of able to do what they want. And in terms of of generating revenue, I think there are there are some some guidelines about about, you know, taxes and that sort of thing. But But generally, they’re they’re kind of able to do what they want. In terms of policy, and there’s not much in the way of it’s not like maybe sort of your what you might think of traditionally with an SEC, where maybe the industrial zone collects some sort of revenues, and they’re sort of a stream of, of transfers. Back to the government. I think the in the case of this, that is I think the sort of more macro level impact is is just more about the economic effect that they can bring to the regions that are located and that’ll have some, some knock on effects. Right.

Gene Tunny  13:04

Okay. But, I mean, so they’ve, they’re pulled out the underpinning, or they’ve ended the legislative support for these days. So they don’t want this to get in, continue. So they want to regulate these areas as if they’re part of Honduras. So they don’t see to them. They don’t think these this Zedd a or these days creating the economic benefits that were originally suggested for them. Do you have any views on that? I mean, is it? How has that? How has prospera performed? Has it lived up to expectations? Sure.

Jeff Mason  13:41

So in terms of prosper? I know there’s I don’t know how much of that right 100 million investment has been fully invested. Right. I know, they actually there are buildings and then properties under construction, there are a number of companies that are registered, operated, doing business there, I think most of those are sort of in the in the FinTech space, or the biotech space. And they, I don’t know, exact numbers of residents, but there is, you know, an active active community there. I know with Verizon, for example. I think especially colleagues were there in the past month, there’s upwards of maybe 100 200 families or people living there something like that. So some employment, some people living there. And I know there’s like I said, the greenhouse and that type of thing, those types of operations and the other and from what I understand locals who are working there have been quite defensive about it. In the sense of, you know, please these are these are good jobs we didn’t have before don’t don’t end this for us.

Gene Tunny  14:49

Yeah, okay. It’s an interesting little development this prosphora so it’s adopted Bitcoin as a unit of account as a currency and the investors and apparently some of them are connected with Peter Thiel. So one of the PayPal founders and a very famous man, very major player in in US business. And they’re suing Honduran, the Honduran government for 11 billion. But now Honduras has pulled out of that world bank tribunal. And I mean, given that 11 billion if I, if I’ve done the numbers, right, that’s about a third of the GDP of Honduras. You could imagine why they would I mean, it’s a it’s a massive, a massive lawsuit. What’s your take on the on the merits of the case? Do you have any thoughts, Jeffery, on whether they, they’re, you know, they have a case to sue Honduras? I mean, I’ve been legally and ethically morally?

Jeff Mason  15:55

Sure. So, you know, disclaimer, not not not an attorney or trade attorney, anything like that. But from some briefs and things that I’ve read, you know, I do think they have some kind of standing. There are some clauses in the original law, talking to talk about what sort of an off ramp procedure could look like, of not being less than 10 years. And then beyond that, right, the the the main, the main treaties that there’s there’s a Kuwait based treaty, that Honduras was party to that that’s part of their legal argument. And there’s also another one called CAFTA. Dr. Which is, since I’m from Central American countries, Dominican Republic, some others that to do with investor protections. So, you know, without without being, you know, a lawyer who focuses on these areas, I would, I would think they do. Does that mean, the full, you know, 11 billion is right, is that justified? I don’t I don’t I don’t have enough expertise in that domain to say, I get the sense that I think would have been probably best for all involved is some kind of negotiated settlements, for for some kind of some sort of agreements, what that could exactly be something that maybe allows this phase to continue in some form, but but allows the government say, you know, we’ve, we’ve rolled this back in some way, you know, I don’t know exactly what that could look like. And now it’s there in Honduras leaving to the arbitration house at the World Bank. I really actually, I’m actually not sure I’ve tried to find this. See, with some articles, I have found an article that actually says, like, what happens to the lawsuit now? So I’m not I’m not actually sure what happens next. I’m sure anybody is.

Gene Tunny  17:52

No, no. I mean, it’s it’s a bold move what they’ve done it. I mean, it’s consistent there is this growing concern worldwide about these investor state? dispute or settlement in dispute mechanisms. So you know, as part of that, that broader movement is pull out, and I see that they’ve had 80 or So economists sign a letter in support, and I’ll have to try and dig that up and see who they are. Yeah, it’s just, this is something I’ve just found out about the last few days. This is, this is quite a crazy story. And then I remember the conversation I had with Curtis, which makes me wonder, like, is this a I guess, you know, being in the charter cities Institute and promoting charter cities? Is this something that is a cause of concern? Does this set your agenda back in terms of providing charter cities?

Jeff Mason  18:48

So I don’t, I don’t really view it as a setback for CCI. And some of the projects were working with. I think Honduras is a useful cautionary tale for these projects. In that it shows I think, the importance of having legal and political stability, if your legal regime that allows a charter city or something like a charter city, is is you know, is only an election away from being repealed at anytime. Right. That’s a pretty that’s a pretty shaky foundation. And I think another A second important lesson is that for these types of projects to succeed, I don’t think it has to be the case that a project necessarily needs to involve the government’s right, I think you could have a fully, fully private project. That’s, that’s great and successful. But I think one of the ways to ensure sort of longer term stability and government buy in is actively partnering with with government in some way and whether that’s the sort of formal public private partnership agreement or for Ruby, it may be something less formal, but The government is still involved in some way. And a lot of the projects that we’re working with, but most of which are in Africa that the vast majority of CCIs work is in Sub Saharan Africa. A lot of those projects in one form or another, are actively working with the government. And so I’m, you know, forget to put put the financials and those kind of things aside for a second, just from a legal regime, legal stability standpoint, I’m much more optimistic about those than I am about, you know, the kind of structure that was built in, in Honduras.

Gene Tunny  20:33

Rod, yeah, we might not ask you about those in a minute. Could you just remind us, please, Jeff, what, what is the difference? So what is the special sauce of the charter city versus what we think of as or when we think of as special economic zones or free trade zones, free ports, etc?

Jeff Mason  20:54

Sure, so there’s a couple pieces. So one, is that the city component matters. So we’re talking about building new cities from from scratch, that can take a number of forms. So some some projects that we’ve seen or observed are sort of what you can describe as a satellite city. You know, there’s somewhere within within the growth path of an existing city. Others are a little bit more true Greenfield. But the idea is given the pace of urbanisation, in Sub Saharan Africa, and places like India, and others, as well, just the sheer number of people who are moving to cities, every year, year on year, adds up really quickly. And so it’s hard for existing cities and their, their economies, their governments to manage that. And so we think there’s, you know, there’s, there’s, there’s a value actual value in capturing some of that urbanisation in new cities, which are better, better equipped to handle rapid expansion. So that’s, that’s the city piece. And then the charter piece, is the idea kind of drawing on this tradition from special economic zones. That, right, if you could just, you know, snap your finger, and, okay, all our institutions work great, our policy is perfect across the whole country. Right, you would do that and or there would be, you know, 15% growth, and everything would be great. But national level reforms are and improving governance, or, you know, they’re, they’re difficult things to do. And so, one of the strategies that special economic zones sort of paved the way with is that you can devolve some level of authority to special jurisdiction over a limited geographic area, we’re okay, we’re willing to relax certain rules or allow certain policies to be determined locally, within this area. And right that that’s kind of the story of the Chinese as the Z’s that pioneer their growth. But zones in some form or another have been tried all over the world. And most are, you know, a legal regime. That’s things like tax incentives, customs clearances, one stop shops, you know, blight or regulatory touch these these kinds of things. But you can take that a step further, and say, Well, look, if you know, let’s, let’s concentrate in this one area, and say, maybe it’s not just here’s a prescribed list of privileges you get for doing business in the zone. But instead, let’s think about empowering that jurisdiction to figure out what policies work best. From the ground under this is really the sort of Chinese story, it wasn’t just right, Beijing said, Okay, we’re gonna have some economic zones, and here’s what they can do. But it was local officials on the ground in figuring out what worked. And right China’s a unique time and he in a unique place, where we think those lessons are broadly applicable. And when we talk to policymakers, most seems to find a pretty intuitive that, yeah, we’ve been doing social economic zones in one form or another to varying degrees of success or failure. But I think I think they appreciate the logic of, okay, we’ve done you know, SCC is generation 1.0. That’s an industrial park. Why shouldn’t we pair that with deeper governance reforms and with, with housing, with with with mixed use, with retail commercial uses, not not just industry. And the thing is, a lot of these new city projects are happening with or without that governance component. When you don’t, when you’re not adding in that governance component, right. It’s essentially it’s a real estate project. And that’s, you know, that’s all well and fine. But if you’re going to be doing us large scale, something that is truly city scale that’s going to be home to 10s, or hundreds of 1000s or maybe even millions, even at the ground. Under scale, it actually makes a lot of sense to pair that type of development with with some sort of effort to improve governance. And so while a lot of the projects are, you know, you might get a push point towards an ideal, okay, here’s, here’s what the ideal charter city could look like. And it might have authority over, you know, these these 15 things. Right, in practice, most of the projects that we are either actively working with or know of, are trying to get authority over certain things, or maybe scale over time. Okay, well, we’ll start with revising the economic zone law to include a few more things. And, you know, we can we can try to revise that and continually revise that and, and scale it up and change those those regulations over time. So we’re seeing a push now to, you know, when zoning laws are being reformed, pushing them in the direction of, you know, recognise that there, there’s an urban component here, and pushing the city projects in the direction of, you know, okay, there’s governance is actually important for the success of this project. And so we’re trying to impress that the importance of that synthesis on on governments and and the projects that we we interact with raw

Gene Tunny  26:13

add, okay. Yeah, I mean, it’s great idea. I mean, I think it’s, it could promote experiments in design of cities, different policy settings, which is great. What do you mean by governance? Exactly, you’re talking about, we want to make sure it’s democratic, is transparent. There’s accountability, there’s no corruption? Is that the sort of thing you’re talking about? So

Jeff Mason  26:36

yeah, I think part of it is the sort of governance in terms of the day to day functioning, how well does does you know a particular officer or ministry? How well does that actually function at executing its mission? And then I think there’s also the actual literal policy dimension of what what is the policy? What would what a more optimal policy look like?

Gene Tunny  27:02

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  27:37

Now back to the show. Yes, to sort of wrap this up. What are some of the charter cities or the the examples of this in practice around the world that that CCI or you yourself are involved in?

Jeff Mason  27:57

Sure. So the the project that we’re spending most of our time on right now, at CCI, is located in Zanzibar. Tanzania, so there’s a project there called Simba town. So this is a new development. It’s it’s being created by a developer called CPS, sort of south of what’s called Stone Town. It’s kind of the main main main city in Zanzibar. So we were introduced to them a few years ago, there started out and started out as a residential development, they’ve they built about 600 700 units. But they’re looking to expand their the jurisdiction the area under under their control to build this out into something that’s more like a city. And so we’re working with them on plans for the expansion of from the town. And that includes bringing the African School of Economics, which is sort of one of the premier African universities, was founded by one of TCAS board members, Leonard Washington, he says he’s a Princeton Professor of Economics, found that in his State of Guinean, and so they’re looking to expand out of West Africa, they have a couple campuses, and in between Cote d’Ivoire, and Nigeria, and they want to expand to East Africa. And so we’re working with the photon and with ASC to bring them and their first East African campus to Zanzibar. So helping get that set up curriculum development. We’re working on establishing an African urban lab there, which is supposed to be sort of a research and teaching hospital, if you will, for present and future urban practitioners and, and policymakers in Africa and trying to bring the skills and the people needed to sort of build a real hub for talent in East Africa, independently of ASC, IIT, Madras, sort of India’s MIT also set up a campus Just down the road from from Buster, there’s sort of real potential here to build a hub of of talented, talented people and build out an ecosystem in technology and services will also bring the investment. Investment needed in other areas like tourism, blue economy, industry, light industry, manufacturing these these kinds of things. Right. And so we’re working, working with them, and also with the the investment promotion authority there. Tomba is currently in sec, it’s one of these sort of fairly basic regimes. And so we’re looking at ways in which FUBA town can be in terms of of its of its legal powers can be scaled up over time to create an actual proper municipal government, that this that’s something in directionally, like a charter city, and then scale that up over time.

Gene Tunny  30:56

Right. And at what stage is the development? It sounds like there’s some development there already. Do you know the population? Is there a business centre of CBD? Yeah,

Jeff Mason  31:06

so it’s it’s a date, they’ve completed about 600 units, some of which are occupied, some of which are for sale, as well as some some restaurants, shops, office space, that kind of thing. But some of our staff have have relocated there, as well. So I think it’s an A lot, a lot of what’s been built so far is residential. In the next phase, I think a lot of that, including the ASE campus will will be more of that. Office commercial retail type space to support the expansion. Right.

Gene Tunny  31:44

And you know, has it been pitched dad? Is it? Is it being pitched it? Is it primarily of local or regional interest? Or is it being pitched to? I don’t know crypto bros or digital nomads worldwide? I don’t know. But I know that this is something that does appeal to the the the libertarians, the people who who are excited about crypto, I wasn’t using that pejoratively. I was just using that as a term that seems to be the popular term now. So yeah, they’re getting interest from foreign investors from major corporations. Do you have any idea who’s interested in this? Sure.

Jeff Mason  32:26

So I actually just had a conversation for CCI zone podcasts with the head of the architecture firm responsible for a lot of what’s being built and filmed when we talked about part of the strategy. So initially, a lot of the what’s being built is at a price point that’s more for wealthy Tanzanians. And then folks abroad are interested. But they want to use that investment to then build as part of this expansion, much more affordable, much more affordable housing, so that it becomes viable for the local population to buy in. And right, you can’t really actually expand one of these types of projects to to any kind of meaningful scale, if you’re not targeting locals, and making it affordable for locals and creating jobs that are accessible to locals. So obviously, the focus is multifaceted. But they’re very keen on figuring out, you know, what can we do in terms of creating, actually creating, you know, a proper mortgage market, these kind of things doesn’t really exist in a meaningful way. They’re, how can we create the financial tools, also from a construction engineering materials side, but looking at all facets of what can we do to drive drive the price point of housing down, and some of our partners on other city projects have done a really great job elsewhere of figuring out how to do that one of our partners in Malawi called Small Farm cities, they’ve basically been able to drive the house, the price, the price point for new housing down to where someone who’s making a family that’s making 7500 US dollars a month can afford a decent home and actually have a mortgage that they can afford that’s titled it’s it’s it’s it’s it’s Douse them with some property rights, they actually own it. It’s not in formal, like most housing in Africa. So there’s a lot of people working on this question of how do you how do you bring affordability to these projects? And I think that’s because I think it’s important, especially because that’s one of the criticisms and often rightfully so, that gets levied. At a lot of these a lot of these projects, right? There’s just these, you know, glossy shiny renderings and you know, that’s all well and good, but there’s no actuals and a lot of these projects there’s there’s no real viable strategy behind Creating a functional economy that makes sense. And in that location, folks, I think of, you know, a Colin was going to do a city where the currency was going to be a coin. And right, yeah, sure you can have whatever opinions you want about that. At I think it was Senegal, but Right, that’s that’s not what that’s not what the average person in Senegal needs or can really take advantage of. So there’s a real deliberate effort here to try to solve this problem. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  35:34

yeah. That what you mentioned about Malawi is, is interesting. Do you know that off the top of your head, what the name of that development is?

Jeff Mason  35:42

Yeah, so it’s a company called Small Farm city, small farm, and it’s, and it’s run by one of CCI advisors, John Van and Whoville so they have a, their first community was was for about 100 people, and sort of focused on greenhouse agriculture, fish farming, that kind of thing. And now they’re looking to expand. They have, they’re starting construction on development for 1000 plus people adjacent to a new titanium mine that’s opening. And they’re going to continue with some of that greenhouse that agriculture. But they also want to start operating in some of the input industries input sectors that’ll feed into that, that mining business as well, in a way that’s modular and scalable so that they can go from, you know, 1000 100 person starter to this 1000. Person city started that they’re working on to give it 10,000 and higher as they grow. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  36:37

that’s impressive that that unit cost you mentioned for housing. That’s extraordinary. We need that in Australia. I mean, we’ve got a housing crisis. We need it in DC. I mentioned you do. Okay. Although there are a couple other things. Yeah. This Boombah towns fascinating. And Zanzibar is an island. So it’s a, you know, got a storied history. It’s got a really rich history. What currency are they using? Do you know, in Colombia town?

Jeff Mason  37:09

I think just that the Tanzanian shilling raw there, they have a lot of it’s actually a pretty unique jurisdiction for this type of project in that the government of Zanzibar has a pretty significant, not totally but a significant degree of autonomy within the broader union. So in that regard, it’s actually a kind of almost ideal location from from a legal regime point of view to pilot one of these projects. Gotcha.

Gene Tunny  37:34

And what about the tax, right? So if I go, so if I go to a former town, and I, I pay less tax than if I’m elsewhere, on Zanzibar, or elsewhere in Tanzania? So

Jeff Mason  37:47

I think under the current zoning regime, I think it would just be the standard income tax, I don’t think, if I remember correctly, income taxes isn’t part of that. As it currently exists, it’s kind of an industrial park type model. So you would just be paying regular at the moment, regular Zanzibari. And intensity and taxes, Rod, okay.

Gene Tunny  38:09

But there are other benefits that so in your view, there are other benefits that would make this attractive to investors and to people to locate there other than taxes? Yeah, so

Jeff Mason  38:20

Well, I think on on the point about taxes and governance, I think that that’s part of what we’re working on over the last couple of years months is going to the Investment Promotion Authority, and to the government and saying, you know, you have, you know, this this, this, this law that governs Economic Zones, here are some changes that you think could be think could make this much stronger regime, and here’s how it could be paired with the investment that’s being made in from the town. And so things, you know, a starting point could be things like visas, taxes, sort of functions of municipal government, these these sorts of things. And then presumably, over time, you know, if a government, you know, is agreeable, right, that you could scale that up to, you know, other different regulatory domains, that kind of thing. But yeah, taxes for all these projects, things like taxes, local municipal services, visas, business registration, these sort of very bedrock issues are a good place to start for a sort of iterative, legal regime that changes over time

Gene Tunny  39:27

raw. And in your view. You mentioned this before you think that this is a there’s a stable government or there’s a or you can trust the the legal system there because I mean, one of the risks, of course, and you alluded to this before is that, you know, policies can change and, and particularly in if you’ve got foreign investment, and it’s very easy for local demagogues to you know, accuse the foreign investors of exploitation and then we have expert appropriation we have governments taking over the foreign investment. I mean, that’s happened throughout history. It’s just such a it’s it’s a recurring thing. So yeah, but but in your view is this this is a project where that risk is pretty minimal.

Jeff Mason  40:16

Yeah, that’s that’s something that we’re, we’re particularly concerned about. And I think folks in government there can look around in the neighbourhood. Kenya has a number of new city projects, folks may have heard of Tatu city. It’s the flagship projects of Endeavour, which is Africa’s largest urban developer, built on the outskirts of Nairobi. And so there, there’s every other week, they’re making a new invest new announcement about some some new firm that’s, that’s investing there. So I think there’s positive examples in the neighbourhood. To point to as well,

Gene Tunny  40:54

terrific, well, Jeff has been fascinating. I’ve learned a lot. I’m going to look into this small farms, cities and also into the, in the former town, and yeah, learn a bit more about it. Here, particularly how they’re constructing housing. So cheap. I mean, a part of it’s, of course, going to be labour costs, but there’s probably some other things that they’re doing much more efficiently relative to practices elsewhere. So I’m definitely going to look at that. Anything else before we wrap up?

Jeff Mason  41:28

Thanks for having me on. And yeah, I encourage folks to check out and check out these projects. What they’re doing is fascinating. And just to learn more about the sort of broader charter cities in new cities ecosystem, there’s a lot of really dynamic, interesting projects that often fly under the radar that we’re trying to share more about. Today, please take take some time to explore. Absolutely.

Gene Tunny  41:51

And definitely check out shadow cities Institute’s work, I’ll put a link in the show notes, and you’ve got a podcast up Jeff, your charter cities Institute’s got a podcast.

Jeff Mason  42:00

Yeah, we do. Try to we provide weekly, with entrepreneurs, scholars, other folks who are working broadly on issues of city’s economic development, and the like. And also just briefly mentioned, in the last year, we launched a project called the new cities map. So this has every masterplan city in the world built since 1945, mapped with with detailed information about each entry. So if you want to learn more about charter cities and new city projects, that might be a great place for folks to start grind.

Gene Tunny  42:36

I’m gonna have to check that out. That sounds interesting. Yeah, definitely. Because we’ve got, well, one of the big ones in in well, I guess it’s in our region, although it’s still, you know, seven hour or eight hour flight away is in Indonesia. They’re building a new capital city and Oh, I forgot, is it is it on Borneo? Or maybe I got the island wrong. But yeah, building. Yeah,

Jeff Mason  43:00

I think I think you’re right. Yeah, it’s, yeah, that

Gene Tunny  43:03

looks pretty extraordinary. So yeah, I’ll definitely check out the new cities map. Right. Oh, very good. Jeffrey Mason from charter cities institute. Thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed the conversation. And yeah, I really learned a lot. So yeah, again, thanks and keep up the good work. Thanks, you. Appreciate ya rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting outlets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

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