Categories
Podcast episode

Incubating Startups at the Intersection of Insurance and Technology – Insurtech Gateway w/ Stephen Brittain – EP240

Stephen Brittain, co-founder of Insurtech Gateway, explains how insurance technology, ‘insurtech,’ provides solutions to real-world problems. From aiding farmers in India to deal with the ‘hot cow’ problem to rethinking commercial flood insurance in the US, startups incubated by Insurtech Gateway are crucial players in helping people and businesses better handle risks.

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

What’s covered in EP240

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • Incubating startups in the insurance industry, reducing early stage risk. (4:53)
  • Innovation in insurance industry, including use of data and AI to predict risk and personalize policies. (9:40)
  • Using parametric insurance to manage flood risk. (14:28)
  • Flood insurance and risk management using technology. (19:36)
  • Using technology to mitigate risks in agriculture and the insurance industry. (24:44)
  • Disrupting the insurance industry with new technologies and innovations. (31:21)
  • De-risking climate innovation and insuring against natural disaster risks. (37:17)
  • Using technology to manage natural disaster risks. (40:48)

Takeaways

  1. Insurtech is leveraging technology to fundamentally change the relationship between insurers and customers, focusing on transparency and proactive risk management.
  2. Technological advances in the insurance sector are now tackling real-world problems by enhancing predictive models and using data more effectively to mitigate risks.
  3. InsurTech innovations improve customer service and efficiency and can also address big challenges such as climate change and disaster management.
  4. Collaboration between tech innovators and traditional insurance companies can potentially redefine industry standards and expectations, leading to more tailored insurance products.
  5. Regulatory challenges remain significant, but the evolving landscape of insurtech suggests a promising future.

Links relevant to the conversation

Insurtech Gateway website:

https://www.insurtechgateway.com/ (scroll down for the video summary of what they do)

Article about the cost-benefit analysis Gene did for IND Technology:

https://adepteconomics.com.au/early-fault-detection-for-rural-power-lines-can-reduce-bushfire-risk/

FloodFlash:

https://floodflash.co/us/

Transcript: How Good was Adam Smith? 4 Tax Maxims from 250 Years Ago that are Still Fresh – EP239

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Stephen Brittain  00:03

The ability for both sides of the equation to understand their actions and their risk implications and the pricing that comes with it and the transparency is, we’re starting to see a very different relationship between the insurer and the customer. Because what we’re, what we’re saying is if you do this, this is what the outcome will be.

Gene Tunny  00:30

Welcome to the economics expored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, and welcome to the show. Today we’re diving into the dynamic world of Insure Tech where their esteemed guests Steven Britton, co founder of InsurTech gateway, Stevens has been at the forefront of insurer Tech’s disruptive journey, and I’m thrilled to have him on the show. insurer tech or insurance technology is revolutionising the traditional insurance industry. It’s harnessing cutting edge technology, big data, analytics and AI to mitigate risks, enhance customer experience, and to introduce new products. In this episode, Stephen will share how these technological advances are not just theory, but they’re solving real world problems we can all relate to. A standout story that we’ll explore involves the hot cow problem that farmers face in India. Here and insurer tech solution can prevent milk spoilage due to unexpected heatwaves. This is a compelling example of how technology is making a tangible difference in traditional sectors, improving lives and livelihoods. Without further ado, let’s dive into the episode. Enjoy. Stephen Britain, welcome to the programme.

Stephen Brittain  02:10

The Many thanks for having me.

Gene Tunny  02:11

Very pleased to be here. Oh, it’s a pleasure. Your company so your co founder of Insure tech gateway, which is in this insure tech, spatial or field. And it’s different from insurance. So one of the things I’ve I’ve seen you say your insurer tech investors, not insurance investors, could could you start off by telling us what is in shorter gateway? And what do you mean by this distinction, please,

Stephen Brittain  02:46

are too many thanks for giving me the chance to clarify that we always need a glossary with all these new words like InsurTech. So we’re interested in risk. And we’re interested in the overlap of risk and all the amazing new technologies that have come to market. So if I was telling you that we were investing in insurance and technologies, the assumption would be that we’re just making insurance a bit slicker and a bit faster, and a bit cooler to millennials or something that it’s a kind of a nap, a natural evolution of insurance to just look a little more modern. But I think that behind the scenes, those of us that really got our teeth into this, I really understood the power of data too. And the power of predictive models, to not look at the risks in any way, in the same way that we used to, which is to say that we we now feel empowered to predict and mitigate and reduce risk in the first place. So that we can, we can inform and educate and, and change the way people behave, we’re going to be far more effective to solve things or sorry, we are, we have an opportunity to be super effective to solve things pre what we would traditionally call an insured event or a catastrophic event. As opposed to being really slick and fast to resolving the claim or the loss after it’s happened. And all those things are true. But I think the things that are particularly excited me is all the stuff that happens before the insurer gets the phone call that we could do today. So I’m particularly I came from outside of insurance with an excitement about the potential of technology and particularly a big data and saw the overlap of risk and data being a game changer in pretty much everywhere I looked. And I understood insurance purely as a business bond. This is just a way to distribute really clever technologies to market in long term annuity models, which looks brilliant on a business case. And there’s got some amazing game changer components to it. We can dig into some of those bits because even that’s just introduce a whole new new glossary of terms for you. As I said, I tried Yeah, simpler. But so we have effectively gone out to the tech market and to people who understand, you know, the clients of insurance and said, What are your problems? Can we help you too? Can we help by incubating the kind of products and services of the future for you? Like, what are you needing? What are the pains you’re going through? Because with a friend with a fresh eyes of technology, and data and risk mitigation, we can we can identify, and we can attract early stage startups who and we can help them then to market?

Gene Tunny  05:29

Okay, okay. There are a few things I want to explore there. First, what do you mean by being an incubator? So? I mean, are you venture capitalists? Is it like, to what extent are you venture capitalists? To what extent are you? Like, how do we distinguish between a venture capital investor and an incubator? Is there any distinction? Can you help me explain that place?

Stephen Brittain  05:55

So, we’re event we’re an early stage venture capital company. So I guess our, our outputs, early investments, and other people that back us, you know, they call themselves LPs, limited partners, if we were a venture capital firm. But the critical thing we understood was, I mean, it’s, it’s really difficult to do early stage investing, because you genuinely have this incredible amount of, you know, market risk, distribution risk and early execution risk, particularly in the regulated market of insurance. So we did, we kind of built the business in reverse. So our definition of an incubator is that we have a regulated sandbox, we have the ability to take an idea, a software, model, a new piece of data. And we can, we can authorise it within the insurance regulation so that we can test either products or distribution channels. And by having that capability ourselves, effectively, we have our own mini Launchpad, we were able to reduce the early, early stage risk considerably. That meant that we didn’t work that matched beautifully with an early stage investment business. And so we would often have visitors saying, could you give us $10 million? Because we’ve got this impossible task? To get this product to market? We could say, why don’t you just take a you know, half a million dollars, because we’ve got the doorway into market. Because we aren’t gateway first. This is a gateway, a regulated channels straight into test stuff. So the journey is just going to be so much shorter, and the lessons of whether we can share from so many things we’ve done. So that was our definition of incubator.

Gene Tunny  07:40

Right? So I guess it’d be good to talk about some of the, the businesses or the startups that you’re incubating. Because I’m interested in this concept of the gateway. And who’s the gateway to? Is it to insurance companies? Is it to reinsurance companies? Because you’ve got with the insurance market, you’ve got retail insurance offerings, don’t you? And then you have the is it wholesale? Or the reinsurance market? Like it’s a quite a complicated market, isn’t it? So where are your like, I’d be interested to explore where your startups fit into that whole. That whole market. We’ve

Stephen Brittain  08:16

done 36, we’ve got 32nd Live businesses. So in truth, we’ve got a bit of everything now. Right, we’ve ended up with, because we’ve been businesses that have approached us from many different parts of client value chains. There’s obviously there are also some businesses that have been working across the insurance value chain itself. How do we do better claims? How do we do better assessments and things, we get those two, but it would generally be in new sectors, like peer to peer rentals, or, you know, the kind of Airbnb networks of properties, looking at ways of maturing that market and working through the various value chain and some of the challenges of a fragmented market with point solutions that are turned into businesses that could affect eventually be regulated as brokerage firms, or as datasets. So, so I’m trying to, can I go back and answer that question in a slightly more structured way for you? Because I think I’m wondering,

Gene Tunny  09:18

oh, it’s not gonna keep keep going. I mean, it’s interesting. I think I understand what you’re saying, but it sounds like you’ve got Yeah, they’re in there doing all lots of different things. And it’s that sounds like it’s a like it’s expand. It’s offering a new retail product or product for you. We’re talking about what Airbnb was it and peer to peer. Yeah.

Stephen Brittain  09:40

And I wanted to ask you, you’re such a good question about what does it get, you know, the gateway bit and then also, we built it initially, thinking that the gateway thesis one was, let’s take people with a really good insight of their own market. Yeah. And they know they need a regulated solution, they need to regulate what they’ve got. So they couldn’t get to market. And we just effectively became an access point into market and for the regulated market. So, Gateway, this is number one is taking non insurance people and ideas and then allowing them to enter the regulated product space.

Gene Tunny  10:17

Right? What so this is home insurances and medical insurance. So

Stephen Brittain  10:24

far insurances and, and flash flood insurance is back in 2016 17. It was basically sort of unusual, quite disruptive models about how we might want to consume insurance. As as the world was becoming more fragmented services were becoming more fragmented. And it’s iterated is involved now, because we’ve just just the nature of what we do, are people trying to solve a wildfire? And some people are trying to put the entire reinsurance market on the blockchain? I mean, it’s just right. It’s everywhere. Yeah, you know, can we put a $3 trillion market onto the blockchain is a lot of project that requires not just the regulatory support, but people with a deep understanding about how the cogs work in the back end or insurance through to the right, or the people are just like, how do we convince the insurer to pay to cover somebody per mile when they might in the UK, by the way, you could have like 100 million pound liability, and the insurer is going to be taking three pence a mile. How do you how do we convince them to try this? Because every commercial bone in their body? So this is, this is ridiculous? How do we get we get that kind of face? Some of the things we have to do are very much about relationship. Building. trust

Gene Tunny  11:39

building. Yeah, gotcha. Okay. So there’s a lot of innovation there. Can I ask about, like, you talked about the data and prediction or data and predictive models, you’re not doing things the same way that they used to be done? You’ve got a lot of these firms have got new models, they’re using the data, there’s AI, or machine learning, or whatever it is, what what do you mean, by the way that things used to be done? And what are some examples of how they’re being done better?

Stephen Brittain  12:09

characterise in the most simplistic terms, the fundamental model of an insurance is historical datasets, like the primacy of the intelligence of an insurance company, is the actuary and the actuarial model. So they can say we can look at population level data of, you know, a million people to work out the likelihood of certain health events happening, for example, fire events, whatever it might be, but it’s done on enormous datasets. And I guess, the switch in mindset, the fundamental switching mindset that, you know, is taking some time because everything’s been based on that scale of empirical evidence is that we’re now shifting to a more dynamic view of risk. Which is, you know, that that may have been the case for the last 50 years, but you know, the increased frequency of weather events, doesn’t doesn’t tell him that the the ability of people to change their risk, because they’d be made aware of it. If I told you that, if you lost five stone, you’d live 10 more years, there’s no doubt that that conversation isn’t included in any insurance policy that you’ve got right now. Whereas if we had more of a dynamic thing, and we were working together, I could, I could really be a behavioural part of your behavioural change. I hope you don’t mind me picking on you, I can barely see through this tiny little camera. So that wasn’t anything personal. But it’s but it’s the idea of this thing being but being a much more dynamic and aware conversation about risk. And I say conversation and see, it’s the ability for both sides of the equation to understand their actions. And their risk implications. And the pricing that comes with it. And the transparency is, you know, we’re starting to see a very different relationship between the insurer and the customer. Because what we’re, what we’re saying is, if you do this, this is what the outcome will be. And, you know, that takes time. And that’s caught deeply embedded culturally in the insurance sector, that is historical data. Whereas we talked with, you know, digital businesses, digital native businesses who say, but we’ve radically changed our business in the last three years. In fact, our premises are three times bigger, and our staff counts doubled what it was last year. Why are we still paying the same? Yeah, I mean, just that stuff, in very practical terms, is to you we can all find examples in our own lives, our lives to change, but our relationship with our insurance just become is this all historical thing. So I think that’s the fundamental shift in in the way we’re thinking now, it’s data and allied engagement around risk and awareness, a risk means it opens up new possibilities for us to take on some of the really difficult risks in the world and see if we can tame them a little bit. it, okay,

Gene Tunny  15:00

and what’s the an example does one come to mind where that’s been done by one of your businesses,

Stephen Brittain  15:06

I’ve got too many examples, but I’ll give you an example that is a big shift in thinking so. So flood is one of the biggest risk classes in the world, certainly when it comes in, in the world. So we we have, most contact most listeners will be aware of in terms of either a domestic level or a local community level. And it’s just becoming a, you know, at a national government responsibility level is becoming unmanageable, it’s a risk to the point where there are entire regions that have been refused flood, because it’s not inherently viable. You have, you’re more likely to have a conversation now with an engineer, if you live in a high risk zone that saying, We can’t insure you you’re on your own, or you’re gonna have to really, you’re gonna have to rethink where we where we build and what we do. So that becomes a bit of an end game for the insurance because no charity, there’s the idea is to try and smooth things and, and work on large numbers so that we can take the risk, but if it’s certainty in large numbers, you just, that’s just there’s no insurance model in the world, that will that will cover it. But the some of the solutions emerging are in our in the there’s a case study called flood flash, and you could find on our website, or go to their website and flash flood flash. And they’ve used a mechanism called a parametric, which is an event, the glossary of terms, it’s event based. So in the event that I’ll give you a very real example, in the, in the event that the water level goes over one metre, we will pay you $1 million damages, full stop, and no more. And we’ll pay you in six hours. That is entirely, you know, that conversation alone that statement. So historically, that statement would have been, yes, your coverage for flood. And yeah, we cover it for everything, and then the flood happens. But the reality of that moment is that it’ll probably take three to six months to have some kind of Loss Adjuster come and check what’s been damaged and where it’s been damaged. And that will be corroborated between a public and a private valuation team. At some point or another, something will be agreed. But the reality of of, you know, when you’re certainly dealing with small businesses, that that period of three to six months is enough time for that business to go bust. So basically, if you’re not up and running within this something like 10 days and 95% of businesses never bounce back. So floods been around since, you know, since the dawn of the dawn of man, and well before that says no, I think there’s a reference for you to know her in a discussion. And here we have a segment a small business segment that have been given some choices. So up to a metre, I could afford to pay that. So what happens to everybody under the metre, I’ve got to take the risk on it. All right, start thinking in smart about risk. Maybe I’ll lift all the cabling up, maybe I’ll take the expensive IT stuff in the server room, which I’ve some reason built on the ground floor. And I’ll put it on the second floor. Maybe I just have to sort of partly take ownership of some of this risk and think a bit smarter about how we live in this space. Because this alternative really works for us because in six days, I don’t know what the money we’d need to keep running. And we would just we’d have continuity, which is the only thing that really matters to us, because nobody wants to go through this this situation. Now, that is a principle can be applied to 1000 categories. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  19:02

And where’s flood flash operating is this in the UK?

Stephen Brittain  19:06

What tends to happen is we we pile a wheel well, we often pile it in the U. K, because we’ve just got some some opportunities to try small new experiments here. But they’re in Florida. So we they piloted in the counties of England when we had lots of floods around the time we were there lots of time to practice. And they’ve they’ve recreated a base in Florida and urinals on you. And they’re also looking at Yeah, I mean, we’ve got a team, our own team in ours. And we’re also talking about doing some planets that too.

Gene Tunny  19:36

Oh, good because I’m in Brisbane and Brisbane is notorious for flooding. We’ve had some major floods. I mean, we’ve had well, I was in Yeah, I was caught up in one in 2011. And then we had one a couple of years ago there was a famous one in 1974 yet where we were used to them and up north. We’ve got cyclones and there’s a big problem with insurance. And then it’s really costly. There are concerns that people won’t get coverage. So that’s why I was really interested in talking to you. And just seeing I mean, you’re just learning about this tech and like, to what extent are these? Can we get around some of these problems? Can we make sure that people can get affordable insurance? Because it’s a Yeah, it’s a really big, big policy issue here.

Stephen Brittain  20:25

But it’s also coming from the beyond. Can we afford it? You know, that I’m really trying to move the conversation to say, can we just be a bit smarter about how we think about risk? And can we embed that into everything? Like, even when the guy comes around to instal the server? And he looks here and says, seriously, you want me to put it on the ground floor? Why don’t you just says, And that conversation should be happening all the time now?

Gene Tunny  20:47

Yeah, absolutely. I agree with you there on this flood flash? I mean, I know that they’re probably they’ve got proprietary technology, of course, but can you give us a flavour of I mean, what are they doing differently? From what traditional? I mean, you mentioned they got this, this special type of insurance, but are they doing more sophisticated modelling? Are they got better data that other insurers all

Stephen Brittain  21:14

over the world? They’re really a tech provider to insurance, okay. They’re a broker in that sense, where they are the intermediary to client and insurer. And I mean, the the neat bit of it, they have a device bolts on the wall. So that one metre conversation I mentioned to you before happens around, where do you want me to stick the device, which is the trigger, that triggers the payment effectively, when it gets wet? The money lands in the bank account very basically. But, and behind that, is some very clever, like 3d, a three dimensional risk map that sort of said, so if I were, if I came to your office now gene and said, I’d be able to pull out a device, a quotation does it and say, right, this is where I’m standing. Yeah, risk this height. This is the price I can give you per month for putting the sensor right here on the basis of this payment of this price. So it is what they call their simply three dimensional pricing model, which is proprietary to them. And the device that is able to you can imagine all the IP and device that you can’t throw money in the water on a million dollars that goes in your bank account, before any of your listeners are thinking about it. They spent the first year trying to work out all the different ways that they could stop that event happening and corroborate it from other sources and things so that they could be that they could be as good as their promise to pay out

Gene Tunny  22:38

instantly. Yeah, okay. And some other businesses I saw on there’s a good video on your website. I’ll put a link in the show notes. You talk about OB, sir, is that which do which is insurance for? Is it for farmers. And then there’s Medusa if, if I remember correctly in health care. Can you tell us a little bit about those two players? The

Stephen Brittain  22:58

first one is easier b I don’t even reduce the reason that we got a name change or something. He

Gene Tunny  23:02

seemed maybe I misheard it or miss Ross. Obviously, I thought it was Medusa. I could have misheard it. But I watched your video. Let it go. Do you mind if I borrow it? That sounds

Stephen Brittain  23:15

good if you turn turn people into stone.

Gene Tunny  23:17

Yeah, actually, I’m not sure if it is a good diet for health care and health insurance company. I’ve probably been hurt. But yeah, the

Stephen Brittain  23:26

arthritic suffers. So the first one, Ibiza is, is particularly I mean, we say farming but I think the business is particularly interesting about it is that it’s a really decentralised smallholder farming. So this is the hardest bit about it isn’t solving the farming problem it was solving how do you how do you help a million farmers who are distributed across you know, the plains of India, Africa, to to be both, you need to be able to mitigate and also benefit from insurance. And typically, these groups don’t have insurance. They don’t have any protection whatsoever. And as we all know, or if both of you know that 70% of the world’s food supply comes from people like this. This is our the big secret of global food is it’s coming from these millions and millions of smallholder farmers who are providing the grains and the milk and this is all assembled through cooperatives and local you know local assembly points, aggregators, until it eventually finds itself into the supply chains of Nestle’s and Heineken beers and all the other local brands that you all know and love into your veggie mind somewhere along the line. Not to push on the stereotype to are there. But they say what’s clever about a visa is that they found firstly, they found a way to get to that kind of last mile. So they’ve been with so that they are having conversations with farmers. And they’re picking up their seed. In fact, they’re helping embed technology into the seed itself to give a greater flood of resistance, flood frost resistance. They are dealing with the local cooperative groups to enable them to come together and work as communities who could be all insured against things in a local life. So if you have a heatwave, and there are 1000, farmers affected by it all can benefit from the same cooperative cover. And it is an it is a wonderful thing about the traditional side of insurances. I kind of the way that it can neutralise groups together, that are fragmented, is that you can assemble communities otherwise, you know, possibly aren’t connected. And it’s meant that a very small tech team called IBC, who are based in Luxembourg, with a couple of people on the ground in India, are able to provide the protection around, they’ve just passed. I think that passing 300,000 separate farms at the moment, from a small group based in Luxembourg, that we’ve been backing, right? And they are, they’ve got some amazing statistics of you don’t understand the scale of this stuff. I’m getting carried away and excited about it. But they when they explained the project, project, hot cow, I think they’ve named it something clever a sense, but we’ve made us all laugh. Yeah, but he does it when you get a heatwave. And the case study was in India, it spoils the milk, they literally just cooks the milking the cow. And waste it’s, it’s just a waste. And we asked what’s the scale of it because you know, we live in the UK and this stuff is feels quite like it could be quite manageable. In a quite robust supply chain we have, they waste as much milk in a day as we consume in a year. So this is like one a heatwave days is enough to like, really damage a local economy. And to disrupt the value chain into a group like Nestle making a yoghurt or something. I mean, as an example, there are many different groups. So they were they’re putting in the, the, they’re able through their direct link now with the farmer to send them an SMS message and you know, warn them look for shade, to you know, do different behaviour and things that come you know, unexpected events that are coming, they can take out, they can give them some buffer, but also they can, they can create a payment that will go through the community, to the farmer and help them so why because when this all goes really wrong, you’ve got a humanitarian crisis. This is a point of economic migrants and all sorts of problems when the weather gets just too untenable for those those farmers. So I think that’s a series of examples are just highly fragmented markets. And the lessons we’ve taken from that have come back and forth and things like micro scooter projects and things that we were looking at where we the other fragmented markets and the technologies and models been deployed there. So it’s been a really good way of us understanding decentralised models.

Gene Tunny  28:02

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  28:07

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with adept economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice. We can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world. You can get in touch via our website, www dot adapt economics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  28:36

Now back to the show. Yeah, I like this. So I think that those stories you’ve told, you’re talking about how well with the Insure tech, there’s elements of mitigation, or it’s helping mitigate risks, and that’s helping reduce the cost of insurance, it’s helping make new insurance products available, it’s getting, it’s getting the person insured, involved in trying to manage the risk and therefore have, you know, lower cost of insurance. So I think that does that that’s that’s sort of what a that’s, is that correct? That’s them on the right track there.

Stephen Brittain  29:14

Just just a more holistic view of an open and transparent view of risk. And that I mean, when you there’s another there’s another aspect to this, which is very much a developing world conversation. But the third challenge, we sort of we, I feel like I get way too involved with some of these businesses as an observer and supporter. Some of the first challenges they’ve they’ve had to encounter is a total lack of trust with the insurance sector in the first place. Because every day we’ll have somebody’s cousin or brother that didn’t get the money they were promised. And it was you know, for some pizza small print or something. So that what they now have is their you know, that these insurtechs that were that was supporting. I’ve got so For a good relationship with the, with the community that is really changing their way their thinking, in fact, we’re trying to lose the word insurance, in many cases is really holding us back. Because they’re getting a text message to say, who should we send the money to? And they’re sending into the wires, because it’s more likely to get to the community in the family then sending into the farm, you know, as in they’re really thinking through Yeah, how to make this as a sustainable community. Because, you know, in the past, it could have been that the money was sent there. But nobody actually said so. And they disappeared with it. And there’s been all sorts of history, stories of black market around payouts of insurance and things so we’re able to solve so many problems with this. Great.

Gene Tunny  30:41

And did you say Are they in? Did you say they’re in the Netherlands? They were they based in Luxembourg? Sorry. Yeah. Excellent. Yeah.

Stephen Brittain  30:50

Not in the scheme of things for you. It’s, it’s a short car drive.

Gene Tunny  30:54

Okay, that’s, that’s fascinating what they’re doing. Right? Can I ask, what does this all mean for the whole global insurance industry? Because, I mean, we’re used to some, you know, like in Australia, we have Suncorp. And then I know that these insurers, they, you know, they get reinsured for the risk that so there’s a big global market, there’s there’s some big players in that. What does all of this mean for that market? What is the scope for disruption?

Stephen Brittain  31:23

Being? That’s a big question. I love the bits that I Yes, most humbly the bits that I am excited about. I’ll start there. But yeah, I think it means from a positive truth disruption perspective, I think it means that we are we right now we’re characterising new trillion dollar asset classes that I think couldn’t have been characterised in cash before. So who knew that milk yield in India was an asset class, who knew that the, the exclusion of flood could turn into an asset class, you know, in the protection of some of those business, a risk base that we can now cover? So I think it’s what we’re turning problems into commercial new opportunities. So for me, it says growth, growth growth, by solving real problems. So I think that for me, the positive disruption is, we can hold our heads up high and say that we can innovate in a way that’s genuinely solves problems and genuinely has a commercial case to it. And will further the progress of innovators and pioneers to solve some of the things that are ahead of us, that insurers should be working hand in glove with pioneers of renewable energy have ways of solving for floods, and all sorts of other catastrophes. And we are absolutely part of the Innovators Toolkit. So that’s my comfort zone speaking to that. So it speaks to purpose. And the next generation of talent entering the insurance market are going to want to hear their businesses are supporting these kinds of ideas, because they’re reading about it from their friends and hearing about it. These kinds of ideas should be should be played at a grander scale. Yeah, the other side of the disruption to it is it’s really quite hard to, for any business industrialised itself 200 years ago, in terms of its scale operation to take. Yeah, so I guess what it really the there’s a there’s a massive amount of legacy in the insurance sector. And the bigger conversation for all of us is trying to work out how to scale some of these businesses using the mitre the insurance sector, as the as the insurance industry rather than just boring their models. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  33:38

yeah, I guess what I’m interested in is whether will there be complete disruption and mean some of these new insurer tech companies will take over and the old sort of insurance giants, they’re, they’re the dinosaurs, they’re going to die off because one of the interesting things you said on the climate confident podcast is if you look at something like Uber, well, it wasn’t in transport or Airbnb, it wasn’t in hotels, these are new businesses that have just completely disrupted the existing markets and taken, you know, taken over a lot of them. And it’s, you know, it’s been, it’s been bad news for a lot of the traditional players. So I’m wondering is insurer tech like this? Is that Is that what we’re gonna see? What I

Stephen Brittain  34:23

mean by take Uber as an example, it’s a really good example. But Uber don’t make cars that has been done and who knew that booking and instant availability of cars would be better it is worth now 50 100 billion pound company, when they when they started, what were they disrupt where they would, they were just disrupting the behaviour of us going out sticking your arm up? As far as I understand, and it was just more about the instant availability of vehicles for us. And so in that sense, it was a positive disruption. It was consumer first they really thought about what consumers wanted. But what they didn’t do As the automobile, they replaced the inconvenience of trying to get hold of a car and you needed a car.

Gene Tunny  35:05

Yeah. And

Stephen Brittain  35:07

obviously, it had an impact on the incumbent taxi firms and other aspects. But now they’re they’re starting to use those same systems themselves. So it was a, it ran ahead of the system. I guess why I went to the efforts to labour there is because that certainly the error I’m looking at, which is at the top of the funnel, when and where the customer need is, I think we’re just finding really good ways of engaging with customers and giving them kind of propositions that they want, whether they be a man in the street or business, in threat of wildfire, or, you know, a government worrying about flood. They’re just groups of people that are able to go in with a new set of tools and really understand risk better. What does that then mean to the I mean, when you go into the insurance sector, what they’re really good at is managing risk, and disinfecting really risk that that is, you know, the root system of insurance. And that doesn’t, you know, that’s amazing, that is just as a work of art machine there. You know, and I don’t think we’re really messing around with it, like, we’re not rebuilding the car for the Uber model, or we’re just having people book it. So I think the positive disruption of in for the insurance sector is that we’re given them a new face a new front end. But until routine to get more out of their amazing machine for dissipating and managing risk. And that’s certainly where I, where I have the most enjoyable conversations. I mean, when you do sit in front of an actuary, and they tell you what they do, and how they, and then the way that risk is transferred to that it’s extraordinary. It’s an extraordinary assistance in involving 10s of 1000s of people and trillions of dollars. It’s a very clever mechanism. And I’m not going to party because I couldn’t, I’m not experts enough to do the justice for your listeners. But also, because generally, when you’re dealing, as we do with clients, future clients, what they’re really talking about his use cases, use case as a risk data use case as a risk. And that’s where we really, that’s where we’re really disrupting them every day is a new use case for what we’ve got.

Gene Tunny  37:16

Yeah, gotcha. Okay. As far as I know that, yeah, I’ve seen some innovation in insurance, or I’ve learned about it with because I’ve talked to actuaries that are making use of geo coded data, like in Australia, we’ve got a geo coded address, database, Gene F, geo coded national address file, and that’s been used to help better get more accurate premium estimates, rather than just base a premium on a certain geographic area, you can get really precise on the risks affecting a particular property. So I think that’s really clever. So yeah, I could see the potential for innovation and insurance and offering a wider range of products and hopefully, cheaper products, and also getting the consumers involved in trying to mitigate some of those risks. And so yeah, it’s, it’s fascinating. I guess, one thing I’d like to, I’d like to ask to, to, you know, because we’re getting close to wrapping up, this will probably be the final, final thing. So because I think, yeah, this has been, there’s been a lot and a lot to think about, and I’m gonna have to explore it. A bit more. You talked about, in your bio, it talks about your seeking founders to de risk climate innovation to put fairness back into tech. What do you mean by de risking climate innovation, and I suppose what I’d be interested in for thinking about Australia and thinking about the challenges we face in the north, in particular with the risk of cyclones, and there’s concerns about climate change, and, you know, elevated temperatures, and all of that is, is there really the prospect of that we will be able to insure against these risks? Or is it or your, or will we have to mitigate it? I mean, we have to mitigate them in some way. But does that mean that, you know, some people actually, there has to be out migration from some of these regions? Is that one of the signals that that will be sent by insurance? I mean, how are you thinking about that? So, yeah, I guess on de risking climate innovation first will be good that those those other thoughts were just, you know, things I’ve been thinking about, but if you’ve got any reactions to them, I’d appreciate them. It’s

Stephen Brittain  39:38

some I’ll take it a bit at a time. Yeah, there’s quite a lot. And I’ll put it this way I would, I need a few hours to think about.

Gene Tunny  39:45

Sorry, I just started riffing on started thinking about de risking climate innovation. But yeah, please go ahead.

Stephen Brittain  39:52

I think it’s, I think, if I break it down, so the question one might be, how do we help climate innovate tools? theory says yes. So I, you know, if I, if we were to meet a group trying to distribute some more wind farms at a local level, they’re going to have some common challenges that if they were solar farms or some other kind of decarbonize, sequestering some neat bit of tech, that’s got a chance to scale and be a proper scale up solution, they’re probably likely, they’re probably going through a bit of a flat period at some point, because their technology is proven they got there, but they just haven’t got enough. They just haven’t got enough data, bind them, this thing working. They’ve got developer risks, they’ve got licencing risks, they’ve got all sorts of unknowns that are coming towards them, like, will this thing work? And how well will it work? What kind of yield? Or will I get from my solar panel as much as what I get from my cows milk in India, I mean, these are the same, the licence the development and the operational risk. And in many cases, this is just there’s just not enough time that’s passed, for anybody with a kind of an insurance historical mindset to look at it and go, we know what to do here. So I think we can help the insurer, the insurer tech group. And I’m also looking to your audience, for people who are in the prediction space forecasters and their predictive model designers and various other groups who, who think, who think in a different mindset to this, which is, we have to, we have to move to a new kind of thinking that says this will probably work within a given tolerance. And we need to find ways of unlocking these innovations by saying, yes, we’ll cover your development risk. And yes, we’ll cover your yield reveal the intangibles of your idea, we will guarantee the outputs of this turbine, this solar farm, why because we’ve done something similar, close enough, because we’re going to take a risk on innovators. Simple as that. So I think that we can help characterise the risk in a way that will help unlock lenders, and it will give bring confidence to ideas in that delicate point in growth. And I really, I, personally, and my close team, really want to be an agent to help at that moment to say, I think we can help you get some of these balance sheet, risk off your lender, get some of the developer risk out, get some product, you know, warranty risk, so that you start to look more like a mature product. And we need to do it quickly. Because the world can’t wait for you to do this over 100 years or so is like 50 years for the motorcar, we’re gonna have to do this over the next three to five years, because you’ve got a scale business to build, and you’ve got some urgency to it. So I think we can work in, in partnership with part, you know, with various pioneers of technologies, to help them to try and run as fast as they are in, in, in proving out their model is robust enough to scale and replicate. So if that’s the one that they’re that particularly has grabbed my attention, I think, you know, they need to be working with a group like us to stop that flat patch happening. And I’m actively seeking those groups who have got a hook in market and are looking for those kinds of tools, people that can pay their data and extrapolate and do things with it, and get the insurance are okay. And the various capital providers to take a bit view and say that we should just try a bit more which stretched the model, we don’t have historical data, but we’ve got enough to go. Right. Okay. So that’s my, and why I’m here. And, you know, that’s where I think the biggest potential is. Can you mind me the second part of the question,

Gene Tunny  43:30

what I’m interested in is just what are the prospects? So for regions where they’re threatened by natural disasters like North Queensland with cyclones or various parts of Australia with catastrophic bushfires when we had a huge I mean, you probably saw it on the news that 2019 bushfires were half of the east coast was on fire. I mean, it’s just apocalyptic. And you know, when the smoke would, would come into the capital cities, like, what’s the like, is insurer tech a way to help us manage those risks and to provide better insurance products? I mean, how do you see because because that’s what’s really concerning people here. Yeah.

Stephen Brittain  44:15

I think I mean, the first answer to your question, the main answer, yes, yes, yes, this is doing it in my view, because you know, it’s just getting more frequent and the losses are getting bigger. So we’re going to get into this in a different way. We can’t just say, big surprise, here comes another one, instead of being a $17 billion payout is a $22 billion payout, you know, whatever it’s going to be, we can’t just save up for that event and just keep paying out for it. That’s just daft. So we need so it needs to be and I of course I also read the stories of ideas of burying the cabling and the various thoughts of ignition points when it comes to the fire or, you know, larger protective walls against Danvers rivers bursty. And we can put all those kinds of defences in which is very, very costly and requires quite a lot of planning and saving up and all the reasons it takes forever to do. And I think in that equation of all the physical things we can do that for us, we could cut down and things as a software thing we can do, there’s a tech thing we can do. And that tech thing is to, is to see the risk, understand it and translate that to the key stakeholders that connect and mitigate and prevent. So whether that means the school kids are aware of the farm or aware of their own responsibility about their first cigarette, they haven’t 15, whatever it is, I’ve been, yeah, I mean, there’s just a general consciousness about my own actions. And what happens through to the way we build and where we build just becomes more common, because it’s the only way we could take on something as biblical and also apocalyptic in scale. If we’re just really designing that kind of resilience, and the only way you can do that is a very clear understanding about on an individual and business level. What can I do? What parts can I play to reduce the risk here? Because I can’t go head to head with it anymore. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  46:10

yeah. Just on that, like, I like what you were, you were saying there just reminded me, I will probably have to get wrap this up soon. Sorry. But I just want to mention, there’s a firm that there’s a firm that, well, you reminded me when we were talking about this in terms of using data and better managing risks. And there’s a company ind technology, which I’ve done some work for, which is they have these devices that they put onto power lines in rural areas, and that will detect whether there’s a fault that electrical fault, and that signals, okay, you got to do some maintenance on this power line on these power lines. So that doesn’t later cause a bushfire because least one of the major fires in the Black Saturday fires in Victoria 2009 was caused by these rural power lines, fault, you know, basically, you know, braking, and although you know, problems with the power line, and then causing a fire. So, that’s some really interesting tech that’s using some interesting, you know, data acquisition and software to analyse it to send that signal. So I think that’s an example of that, too. It’s

Stephen Brittain  47:24

a great example and transfer. And we get a lot of pitches from people who think about devices to put into the, into that risk problem generally, whether it’d be putting ice into a, into a house for a leaky washing machine, or putting something into somebody’s watch to anticipate a stroke or a heart condition. I mean, these, this kind of advanced sensing is very clear, one of the the assumptions that people make is that the insurer will pay for it. But somehow that makes sense, because they’re the ones that will pay out. And that assumption is quite hard to, to explain. But in the case you just described, it’s I’m guessing, and guessing that the insurer put in an exemption and then the power company had to do it, had to instal it as opposed to the insurer paid for it.

Gene Tunny  48:09

Or will this technology would have to be brought in by the the, like the power utilities, they have to instal it on their their network? So yeah, there is an issue about how it’s paid for. And that’s something that, you know, the the company has been thinking about, for sure. So I’ll put a link to the the study that I did for that company on the in the show notes, so people can check it out. Stephen has been terrific. I pick your brain on quite a few issues. And I think there’s a bigger, you know, some really bigger philosophical economic issues about insurance and, and the future of insurance and the future of how we adapt to climate change and all of these catastrophic risks. But we’ll probably have to say that for another conversation. Is there anything else before we wrap up this time?

Stephen Brittain  48:58

He’s up for being so curious Jean, what can I say? Thank you. I appreciate the you know, you put me to test on some very open questions about the space. Very good. Well, yeah, and I wouldn’t Yeah, I would like to add the I mean, I’m really wanted to speak on you know, to you and your to listen your to your listeners, because I’m looking for great people to work with. Whether you are a rising star climate innovator and you’re now recognising either that you need to remove some risk and manage the risks within your current business. You know, we want to work with you as your kind of pilot partner, whether you’re a brand new startup tech modelling forecasting person and thinking about the future and got new solution and need a place to incubate your idea, get in touch, or if you’re an insurer, trying to work out or get into this space, come and invest in some of our funds and you can look at a load of stuff, but just get in touch. We will write you a place for most people with with energy to do something with a with a future mindset. You’re

Gene Tunny  49:59

in luck. And then you’re looking all over the world for opportunities. And Australia.

Stephen Brittain  50:02

We’ve got the team and team in London. And yeah, we operate in. Hana, you sent me a note, is it 98 countries? But yeah, there’s projects going everywhere. But we genuinely we look to where we can start fast and then scale later. So we’re open to all.

Gene Tunny  50:18

Excellent. Okay, Steven Britton from insurer tech gateway. Thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed the conversation. And I certainly learned a lot about this great new field of insurer tech. So thanks so much. It’s been great.

Stephen Brittain  50:32

It’s been a pleasure, Jean. Many thanks, indeed.

Gene Tunny  50:36

rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting outlets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

51:23

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this or to begin your own podcasting journey. Head on over to obsidian-productions.com.

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

How Good was Adam Smith? 4 Tax Maxims from 250 Years Ago that are Still Fresh – EP239

This episode delves into Adam Smith’s four maxims of taxation and examines their relevance in today’s economic environment. Host Gene Tunny explores the balance between efficiency and equity, discussing historical perspectives and contemporary debates, such as the proposed billionaire tax.

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

What’s covered in EP239

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • Important taxation principles. (5:33)
  • Taxation principles and maxims from Adam Smith’s “The Wealth of Nations”. (13:19)
  • Wealth inequality and proposed taxes on billionaires. (20:30)
  • A classically liberal perspective from Simon Cowan. (28:33)
  • Taxation principles, including horizontal and vertical equity, convenience, and efficiency. (33:29)
  • Taxation and its impact on economic activity. (41:19)
  • Adverse impacts of high taxes: example from Australia’s tobacco industry. (47:54)
  • Wrap up of taxation principles from Adam Smith’s “Wealth of Nations.” (54:04)

Takeaways

  1. Adam Smith’s maxims of taxation remain highly relevant, advocating for efficiency, equity, certainty, and convenience in tax systems.
  2. Contemporary tax debates often reflect a trade-off between efficiency (minimizing economic distortions) and equity (ensuring fairness across different income groups and treating similar people in the same way).
  3. The episode highlights the potential adverse consequences of high taxation, such as reduced economic growth and black markets and organized crime.
  4. Discussions on billionaire taxes illustrate ongoing disagreements about how to design tax systems that balance economic incentives and equity.
  5. The taxation principles discussed are essential for understanding governmental approaches to raising revenue while minimizing negative economic impacts.

Links relevant to the conversation

Recent episode with Dan Mitchell on US debt:

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/04/17/is-uncle-sam-running-a-ponzi-scheme-with-the-national-debt-w-dr-dan-mitchell-ep235

Episode featuring Simon Cowan on tax:

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/02/23/the-tax-reform-debate-cutting-through-the-spin-w-simon-cowan-cis-ep228

Episode with Miranda Stewart on Billionaire and inheritance taxes:

https://economicsexplored.com/2021/11/06/ep112-taxing-the-rich-billionaire-and-inheritance-taxes

Episode with Steve Rosenthal on Tax rules benefiting tech titans and hedge fund managers:

https://economicsexplored.com/2021/11/22/ep114-tax-rules-benefiting-tech-titans-and-hedge-fund-managers

Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations: Books IV-V: 

https://www.amazon.com.au/Wealth-Nations-Books-IV-V/dp/0140436154

One of Dan Mitchell’s posts at International Liberty on adverse impact of taxation on economic growth:

https://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2018/03/10/new-imf-study-shows-u-s-would-benefit-from-lower-tax-rates-and-less-government-spending

Transcript: How Good was Adam Smith? 4 Tax Maxims from 250 Years Ago that are Still Fresh – EP239

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Dan Mitchell  00:03

Now I’m never one to say, Oh, you raised this tax or that tax, there’s going to be a recession. I worry worry about if you raised this stature that tax in the long run growth rate will decline. And even if it only declines a small amount, maybe two tenths of 1% a year that has massive long run implications because of the wedge effect.

Gene Tunny  00:32

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host, Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, and welcome to the show. This episode, it’s just me, there’s no guest, I’m going to talk about one of the issues that I’ve been covering in the book that I’m writing. So over the last few months other than my business other than this podcast, the thing that’s really occupied my time has been this book. So I’ve been working on this book. It’s titled government budget analysis principles for policy. So this was a book that Tony Macon and I proposed to Routledge, which is a major international academic publisher. And we got an agreement to, to write the book. But if you’re a listener to this podcast, and you know that I had Tony, on my show, we talked about the pandemic stimulus. And then I had Alex Robson on in white 2021 to just talk about the terrible news that that Tony had, died, unexpectedly died suddenly, at age 67. And, yeah, I mean, huge blow. We’re about to start working on the book. And I didn’t know whether I’d be able to go through with it. But people like Alex and also Fabrizio come and Yanni, who’s a professor of giveth now at Griffith University, where tiny was and now Fabrizio is over at University of Southern Queensland. They encouraged me to continue on with a book and that’s what I’ve been doing. And I’m going to dedicate the book to Tony, for sure. So I’m at the stage where I’m trying to finalise the book, tidy it up getting comments from reviewers, it’s, it’s been a huge effort. If you’ve written the book yourself, then I mean, you’d know just how much work goes into it, and how much work there is just getting it across that finish line. So that’s where I am at the moment. And in researching and writing the book, I’ve come across so much, great material and, and some that I want to share with you. I think there’s some some great stuff that I’ve learned along the way. And what I want to talk about today is taxation and how we determine what a good tax system looks like, what are those principles for taxation? So, I mean, tax is something we all grumble about. It’s, I mean, particularly at tax time, I mean, it’s, it can be very trying. But ultimately, you know, it’s inevitable as what do they say about the only two things that are inevitable in life are death and taxes, we need taxes to pay for the public services? And there are, I don’t know exactly who said this, but there’s that quote that taxes are the price we pay for civilization. And there’s something to that, I suppose. There are other perspectives, of course, that I’ll talk about a bit later a bit is the libertarian perspective, the extreme libertarian perspective that taxation is theft. That’s another way of looking at it. But generally, I think most economists, or the vast majority of economists would recognise that we need taxes to pay for government services. As. On the other hand, if we resort to money printing, we essentially pay taxes and other way we pay the inflation tax. That’s, that’s perhaps a bit tangential to this discussion. And I have talked about that before. The main point is that taxes are inevitable. And we should be thinking about principles for having a well, a well designed tax system. There’s a great quote that was attributed to the finance minister for Louie, the 14th of France. I think John Baptiste Colbert and the way he described it, and I’m not going to get these words. Exactly. Well, in any case, they would have been in French. And will which I’m not going to try to quote, The basically said that the art of taxation is basically trying to pluck a goose to get the maximum quantity of feathers for the least amount of hissene. And, to this day, I don’t think anyone’s really described the process of taxation, or what governments are trying to do with taxation with in such a clear, and brilliant, why I mean, it’s a great way to describe it. It’s very illustrative of what the process involves. So we’re essentially trying to tax the population in an efficient way, also an equitable way, as we’ll talk about soon, it’s a way that’s going to prevent a lot of hissing because either a tax is too burdensome, or it’s seen as unfair, it’s seen as inequitable. And, to this day, that’s the way that political scientists economists tend to think about taxation. economists talk about the main principles of a tax system or the main goals of a tax system. Depending on which economists you ask or which textbook you read, there might be three or four different principles, or there could be five in some cases, but generally, the major ones are efficiency. So there’s widespread agreement that the collection of taxes has to be efficient. And that encompasses various different things, which we’ll talk about in a moment. And it also has to be equitable. And there are two types of equity. There is horizontal equity, which is we treat similar people in the same way. So there’s no arbitrary taxation. The government doesn’t tax its political enemies more than the people that likes there’s equity and in that way, and then another concept of equity. And this can be controversial, which we’ll talk about in a moment, is vertical equity, which is probably what we probably first think of when we think of this concept of equity or fairness. It’s about people who have a greater ability to pay a greater capacity to pay, they contribute more, so they pay a higher tax rate. So the wealthy attacks more than the poor. And so I think a lot of people when they think of equity, they probably think along those lines. Okay, so they’re the major ones that economists talk about. Sometimes I’ll add in simplicity, as another principle, I tend to think of simplicity as part of the whole efficiency of the tax system story. So the big, the big items are efficiency and equity, the two different components of equity. And usually what we find or often what we find is that there’s a trade off there’s a, there can be a trade off between efficiency and equity. That’s when you have the really difficult policy decisions. Arthur Oaken, who was a a famous American macro economist. He was Lyndon Johnson’s chair for his Council of Economic Advisers. He talked about that big trade off between equity and efficiency. So that’s something that will come up in taxation, such as debates over consumption taxes, increasing the consumption tax. consumption tax might be an efficient tax, it might be better than income tax, for example, but it is regressive. If you’re on a to lower income, then you’re proportionally spending more of your total income on consumption items, then someone who’s wealthy who’s saving a lot. So there’s a trade off there. I mean, that’s one of the big issues that comes up in taxation, these these trade offs. Okay. Now, what I want to go over this episode in particular on tax having, you know, provided that background on how economists are thinking about it, is what Adam Smith, what the father of economics, thought about tax. And as happens in economics, we find that a lot of these, these principles that we talk about, that we that we espouse many of them, go back to Adam Smith, to 1776, to the Wealth of Nations. Now, not everything’s in Adam Smith, of course, I mean, there are insights, great insights from later economists such as Ricardo Keynes, Milton Friedman, but there is so much that is in Adam Smith is just extraordinary. It’s if you haven’t read Wealth of Nations, I thoroughly recommend you grab yourself a copy of Wealth of Nations, there’s, it’s generally in two different volumes as volumes 123, which is where most of the famous passages from says stuff about invisible hand, etc. But then there’s also volumes, four to five, and it’s in the book four to five, and it’s in book five, where the principles of taxation aren’t they’re the ones I’m going to talk about today. Now, just on the importance of Adam Smith, I mean, if we go to John Kenneth Galbraith, it’s the age of uncertainty which is one of those great books on the history of economics. Now Galbraith, as a, as someone with Scottish ancestry, he saw a connection with Adam Smith and Adam Smith was, of course, one of the the intellectual giants of the so called Scottish Enlightenment in the 18th century. And Galbraith wrote, The Greatest of Scotchman was the first economist, Adam Smith. Economists do not have a great reputation for agreeing with one another. But on one thing, there is wide agreement. If economics has a Founding Father, it is Smith. And there’s absolute truth in that I mean, Galbraith absolutely nailed that there have been economists often will will argue, but there is general agreement that, you know, Adam Smith was, was the founder was the greatest. It didn’t have the same analytical conceptual apparatus that Alfred Marshall and later economists had. But there was just, there’s just so much wisdom in Adam Smith, it’s, it’s extraordinary going back to it nearly 250 years later. So it’s absolutely extraordinary. And the what I, what I uncovered when I, when I was working on this book, because I was writing a chapter on tax policy. So it’s the fourth chapter in this, this book on writing. And I remembered are these taxation principles. We owe them to Adam Smith diet, we all they were inspired by Adam Smith, I vaguely recall that from something I read, or a lecture I went to a couple of decades ago, now. And it made me seek out the fifth book of the Wealth of Nations. And there’s the, in the section in part two of taxes under the sources of revenue, we have Adam Smith, lay out these four Maxim’s as he calls them of taxation, which, arguably, are still as you know, as relevant today as they were in the 1770s. And they’re just so descriptive. And you can you can see the connections between what Adam Smith laid out here and these principles of a good tax system that I was talking about before, equity, the two different types of equity, horizontal and vertical and efficiency. So without further ado, we might get into Adam Smith’s maxims of taxation. Now, I won’t read all of them all. Well, I won’t read all of the passages in the book, but I’ll just give you the, the headlines. Because I definitely encourage you to, to get a copy of the Wealth of Nations. Okay, so number one, maximum one, the subjects of every state ought to contribute towards the support of the government as nearly as possible, in proportion to their respective abilities, that is in proportion to the revenue, which they respectively enjoy. Under the protection of the state, the expensive government to the individuals of a great nation is like the expense of management to the joint tenants of a greater state, who are all obliged to contribute in proportion to their respective interests in the estate. Right, oh, so that is essentially the vertical equity principle, you can think of it that way. You should contribute in proportion. So it says, contributed in proportion to the revenue that they respectively enjoy. So in proportion to your income. Right. So and that’s, that’s Maxim number one. Now, I think that’s interesting, the way that Adam Smith, the first thing he puts down as a principle, it does relate to that, what we would think of as the vertical equity principle, it’s not efficiency. So generally, when we’re whenever I talk about the principles of taxation, or when public finance economists generally talk about them, they would generally put efficiency first. But I think it’s interesting. I don’t know whether to make too much of that. I’m not a Smith scholar, maybe I’ll look further into that. I just find that interesting that he’s put equity as the the first principle. And this issue of equity is, I mean, it’s it’s at the heart of a lot of the the tax debates that were that we’re having now. And I just saw a couple of months ago, there’s talk about how the Biden administration had Biden’s reelected. Now. I mean, who knows? I think it seems pretty close. I mean, Trump’s just a political phenomenon. No one’s seen any anything like him in the past is just incredible. Just just the I mean, he’s just got some sort of political skills that are, you know, hard to hard to comprehend. I mean, he clearly could win again, there’s no doubt about that. He is embattled now with all of these lawsuits. But given what we’ve seen in the past, I mean, I, it’s very possible he could win. So I mean, who knows. But if Biden wins, he’s saying that there could be a billionaire tax. So I think this is something that we’re talking about a few years ago, Elizabeth Warren called for it. And CNBC reported in March 2024, outlining his 25 budget proposals on Monday Biden to game at the Uber affluent and reiterated plans for a 25% tax on Americans with a with a wealth of more than $100 million. Okay, so I mean, who knows, they probably would never get a pass through Congress. Perhaps it’s just all political talk. But I guess what it shows is that there is this there is a lot of talk about taxation and the appropriate taxation of of the wealthy and a big debate about whether taxation levels are right or not, or whether Are they too low? Are we taxing the wealthy enough? And particularly in the US, there are concerns about taxation, policy settings around capital gains, there’s this whether it’s a loophole or not, that’s hard to say but there’s the rules around carried interest I talked about with Steve Rosenthal, I think it was from Urban Institute a couple of years ago, and this step up in basis that occurs when we when estates are passed on when the if the when someone dies, someone wealthy and there’s receive the the estate and effectively, there’s no taxation on the capital gains that were that were earned. During the their their benefactors live. So that’s something that is controversial. Hopefully, I’ve described that right. I’ll put a link in the show notes to the Steve Rosenthal episode. Uh, so there’s a lot of discussion about appropriate tax settings. And I had a great conversation with Miranda steward from ASU from Australian National University on this issue of the billionaires tax and talk about inheritance tax and what’s driving it all. And I think she gave a really, really nice, really good explanation of what’s going on. So I might play that for you. Let’s, let’s replay this. This is with Miranda Stewart, this is from about three years ago, I’ll put a link in the show notes.

Miranda Stewart  20:30

But so I suppose we’re observing what’s going on in the US, as we always do here in Australia, and I guess, to some extent elsewhere in the world. So if we think in that context, and then think how might that affect our our ideas about Australian Taxation, the big driver of both the US billionaires tax as it’s been, you know, marketed in the, in the papers. And I guess, by the Democrats, to some extent, is income inequality in the US. And another big driver of the US policy, Democrats policy is wealth inequality. So I guess we should see these two things are related, but they’re not the same. So the US has, probably, among OECD countries, almost the highest income inequality of any OECD country, I mean, there’s a couple of others. Costa Rica is another example. You know, some of the Latin American countries have rather high inequality, Brazil has very high inequality in income. But the US really stands out compared to most developed countries in its income inequality. And the inequality is both at the top, you know, the billionaires have very rich that is they have a lot of income. And at the bottom, poor people are very poor, you know, so you sort of have that extreme. Australia In most in the UK, and most European countries are nowhere near as extreme as that in terms of income inequality, although, of course, we do have some in the US that inequality was sort of trending upward, as well, I suppose, over the last 10 years and 20 years. And of course, the other thing that we’ve seen in the US is, is these billionaires, you know, the the tech boom, and the the tech billionaires, the ones that really stand out, although they’re not the only ones, Bill Gates, you know, on musk, Apple, and, and so on. So, they, the owners of those, those tech companies, of course, are massively rich in ways that none of us perhaps can ever remember being the case in terms of their access to kind of global capital. And these global monopoly markets that they have. Most of their wealth, of course, is not in their own personal hands. It’s in the stock that they hold in their companies. You know, it’s of course, they own that they’re in those shares. And they they’re worth billions, but it’s not income so much as as wealth. So the US billionaires tax, it’s bit it’s a bit mis described, the the Biden proposal is two things. One is that it’s essentially just a higher income tax write to include some amounts of more of income and gain in the income tax in the US. And then the other part of that is to strengthen some of the districts in the USA state tax they do have an estate and gift tax, and there have been lots of proposals in the US for a wealth tax. Gabriel Zucman. refound was famous for proposing an actual kind of accrual wealth tax on the very richest. Right, come back to Australia. Well, I can. Coming back to Australia, of course, we don’t have inheritance taxes, as you said, the Queensland Joe Bill key Peterson started that trend in the late 70s in Queensland, abolishing the Queensland estate and gift duties and we had a classic tax competition reaction to that, within among the states and territories, they all really quickly abolished their estate taxes. And then the feds, you know, with one of those things where with hindsight, probably they shouldn’t have done it. They abolish the federal estate and gift tax, although there was no tax competition issue there. Nonetheless, it was very unpopular tax and it was a political campaign to abolish it. And as we’ve seen more recently, it is possible to abolish unpopular taxes. Federal Governments do do it from time to time. So we have growing wealth inequality, we don’t have quite so much income inequality, although that is growing a little bit but we do have growing wealth inequality and I think that’s why the interest again in these issues.

Gene Tunny  24:51

Okay, so I think that was a really good summary from Miranda as to what’s going on On and it’s why why do we have all of this talk about the billionaires tax and, you know, inheritance taxes now, it’s because of, you know, the the trends we’ve seen in the inequality of wealth. We’ve seen that in the United States. I mean, I mean, that’s really where you see the big, the big increase in wealth inequality. We’ve had some of it in Australia, we haven’t had much of a change in income inequality, or there’s a debate about whether that’s really changed a lot. But definitely, wealth inequality has increased, particularly with, with housing with. I mean, we’ve got, you know, some ridiculous house prices now in Sydney and Melbourne. And now I’ve got young people unable to enter the market, we’ve got a real crisis there, arguably. Now, I guess what I would say about this is that, and this is where it gets tricky is because equity is in the eye of the beholder. So there’s value judgments that that come into it. And I mean, maybe I wouldn’t go so far as to say, a lot of these proposals are motivated by envy or class warfare. So those will often be the criticisms of proposals like that. I mean, you know, in some cases, maybe there’s some truth in it. I wouldn’t go there immediately, I would say the people advocating for them, they have a different way of looking at the world. They have particular values, and they think that well, this is unfair. So it’s what do we see as unfair? So that’s one set of value judgments you could make. Now, another perspective on this is that, that libertarian perspective I was talking about before. So there’s another perspective, and this is, you know, you could say, it’s this taxation is theft perspective. I mean, if you have a presumption in favour of the individual in favour of private property, then you would be very resistant to taxation of any sort, you’d be resistant to, to these moves to have a billionaire’s tax or have a have a heavy inheritance taxes. And, I mean, it could be based on a libertarian argument, or it could also be based on an argument that this is the sort of thing that will stifle entrepreneurship. So we’ll talk a bit about that later. But I want to play a clip from a conversation I had with my colleague at the Centre for independent studies, Simon Cowen earlier this year, Simon is research director at CIS. And you may be aware, I don’t know, it depends on how often you listen to the show. I am a an adjunct Fellow at Centre for independent studies in Sydney. So I’ve had a long association with with CIS. That goes back, g must be this must be the 27th year I’ve had an association with CIS 26 through 27. It’s been a long time. But here’s a clip from my, well, my friend and colleague, Simon Cowell. And so let’s listen to what Simon has to say.

Simon Cowan  28:33

What you actually really need to do is lower the tax rates across the board. And this is one way to start that process. Right? And

Gene Tunny  28:42

is that that’s to encourage work effort and innovation. Entrepreneurship. Yeah, so

Simon Cowan  28:47

absolutely all of those students, but I think there’s also a moral argument to this, where, you know, the government is acting as if your income belongs to them, and you should be grateful when they allow you to keep some portion of it. And, you know, the analysis seems to be that people who are receiving government benefits or low income deserve more of the higher income people’s income than they do. And I mean, you know, I think there’s a moral difference there. People who people should be entitled to receive as much of the benefit of their hard work as they can and at a tech to redistribute from the perspective of trying to sort of equalise incomes rather than trying to provide a safety net for people at the bottom it I think the more that our tax system tries to create that that equalisation for equity purposes, and the less that it focuses on, on you know, sort of the the issue of absolute inequality, the the absolute poverty issues. Is the people bought again, I think that’s a mistake. I think people should be entitled to keep their income, regardless of the income level there. Okay,

Gene Tunny  30:10

so that’s an alternative perspective. That’s from Simon Cowan. And Simon is expressing a classically liberal perspective. A libertarian, you could say, perspective on taxation. And look, that’s a that’s a fair perspective on perhaps reasonably sympathetic to that perspective, having been associated with the CIS myself. And that’s in contrast to another perspective, the thing I’d say is that, look, there’s going to be debates about values. And I mean, you know, and to an extent, we just can’t really say that there is one right answer, there’s not necessarily a solution. What’s that saying about? What would Thomas soul say? There’s no solutions, only trade offs? So look, you know, this is a tactic when it’s when when it comes to taxation, we’ve got a whole range of considerations, equity is one and we will argue about what is equitable. So we might leave it there, I think I’ve played I’ve given two perspectives on that. And if you’ve got your own views, let me know, get in touch. Right, I’ve got to move on to some of the other Maxim’s of taxation, or I’ll also, just before I get onto that to vaccin, to I’ll put the context for that. Simon Cowell and clip in the show notes. What what it was all about was about this debate we had earlier this year about this stage three tax cuts that we’re having here. And there were redesigned, so there wasn’t so much going to the top end. And arguably, well, what Simon in some of his colleagues at CIS were arguing is that well, those tax cuts will go into the top end, because they’re the ones paying the bulk of tax in the first place. And this was just given giving them back bracket creep. So what they were all the extra tax our pain, because inflation pushed them into a higher tax bracket. So he was saying, Look, you know, there’s nothing really wrong with that. And you had a lot of the people advocating to redesign the tax cut, they were essentially assuming that all his money belonged to the government in the first place. So that’s what he was. That was the context for that. So I’ll put some links in the show notes, so you can understand that a bit more. The key thing is that, yeah, I’ve given you two different perspectives, and I would be interested in your own So yep, please get in touch. Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  32:51

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with adept economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice. We can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world. You can get in touch via our website, www dot adapt economics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  33:20

Now back to the show. Right oh, let’s get on to the other Maxim’s number two. So Maxim to the tax, which Each Individual is bound to pay ought to be certain and not arbitrary. The time of payment, the manner of payment, the quantity to be paid ought to all to be clear and plain to the contributor and to every other person. Okay. So, to me, this is essentially the horizontal equity principle. You’re not being treated arbitrarily, you know, what the rules are? It’s not going to depend on the tax assessor or the person assessing your taxes, there are clear rules. And I think generally, in advanced economies, this is something that that we do reasonably well. I mean, we’re gonna have lots of debates about vertical equity and efficiency, as we’ll talk about in a moment, but I think generally, this is, this is something that is, is reasonably well, well taken care of, in terms of having clear rules. I mean, maybe you could argue, and this gets into one of these equity arguments, I suppose. Like some people will say, Well, isn’t it unfair that you know, so and so billionaire pays less taxes or proportion of their income than someone who’s a teacher or, you know, an administrator worker, okay. So, yeah, there’s that’s maybe that’s more vertical equity than than horizontal My view is that that second maximum relates to horizontal equity and our systems are probably reasonably okay in that regard. But if anyone has any different views on that, please get in touch we, we might move on to another, the third Maxim, every tax ought to be levied at the time or in the manner in which it is most likely to be convenient for the contributor to pay it. Okay, so this is, this just gets to the burden of the tax system. And I think this relates to efficiency, whether it’s efficient or not, whether it’s minimising the the regulatory burden on on taxpayers, and Smith gives the example, a tax upon the rent of land or of houses payable at the same term at which such rents are usually paid is levied at the time when it is most likely to be convenient for the contributor to pay, or when he is most likely to have where with all to pay. K? Well, I mean, I suppose that I can see why this would be an important principle, it doesn’t usually, I guess, it does come under efficiency, you can think of it under efficiency, but generally, what we find is that the tax officers, the tax agencies, they want to, they want to get your money, they want to get money from people as frequently as they can. So I suppose with with employees, the employers have to withhold the tax on behalf of the employees. So this is the withholding tax in, in the US. And in Australia, as I suppose the the wage earners are paying the tax at the time that they’re paid. So that’s consistent with this third maxim of Adam Smith’s. And even though they don’t even see the money, the employer handles at all. So perhaps you could say that that’s consistent with it. And then, depending on the type of business, you are in Australia, so if you’re a company, I think you have to pay those those tax instalments every month to the ATO or if you’re a large company, and if you’re not a large company, you pay quarterly. So I mean, arguably, that’s more convenient than then just having to make one big payment at the end of the year, which, which could cause cashflow issues. Right. So I think, you know, that’s a reasonable principle. I find it funny, it’s a bit a bit odd that it’s elevated to its its own Maxim, but Adam Smith obviously thought it was important, it was obviously a big deal at that time back in the 1770s. So fair enough, I can understand why it’s in there even even if I would have probably rolled it up into an efficiency principle. And in fact, I think it’s, I mean, when I think of when I think of the tax system in the big thing I’m often concerned about is that economic efficiency, and maybe that’s, maybe I’m not giving as much weight to those equity considerations that aren’t as others maybe that you know, that’s a that’s a value judgement on my part. I mean, obviously do care about equity to an extent. But then I’m also thinking about how do we ensure that the economy is as productive as possible for the benefit of us? All? Right, oh, so we get on to Maxim for every tax ought to be so contrived, as both to take out and to keep out of the pockets of the people as little as possible, over and above what it brings into the public treasury of the state. Now, that is a very good maxim that is a really intuitive are a really nice summary or explanation of the efficiency principle of taxation. He’s basically saying that, well, we’ve got to minimise what economists in the technical language of economists what we now call the excess burden, or the deadweight loss of attack. So when the government raises $1 of tax revenue, that’s actually taking more than $1 away from households and businesses as well. It’s a transfer of $1 from the households and businesses to the government. But then there’s an extra excess burden or deadweight loss which could be say 25 cents or so. $1 are a tax actually, it costs $1.25. So there’s the dollar. And then there’s the 25 cents on top of that, from the disruption to economic activity that lost economic activity. So the marginal cost of public funds, so to speak, is higher than then $1. So in that example, it’s $1.25. There’s that excess burden of, of 25 cents. And I think that is, that’s what Smith captured quite nicely in that maximum his. Okay, so how does that excess burden come about? And I think this is where Smith provides some, you know, some really good illustrations, he talks about how a tax may either take out, or keep out of the pockets of the people a great deal more than it brings into the public treasury in the four following ways. First, the levelling of it may require a great number of officers whose salaries may eat up the greater part of the produce of the tax and who’s perquisites may impose another additional tax upon the people. Okay, fair enough. I mean, the tax office has got administrative costs, given given modern accounting systems, and computerization, given the fact that the tax collections outsource to big business, a lot of it through withholding tax and company tax, maybe that’s less of a big deal than it was in in Smith’s stay. But certainly, I mean, yep, there’s administrative costs with taxation, no doubt about that. And I suppose that’s why you probably want to rely on a smaller number of taxes. And one of the things you do see, and this is this, this arguably is an issue when Ken Henry, my old boss, in the treasury, he did his tax review in Australia, about 15 years ago, and I remember there was a chart of some kind that showed that will, across Australia, across commonwealth and state agencies, there will, there’s over 100 different types of, of taxes. And I mean, there’s basically only 10 of them that, you know, raise the bulk of the revenue, or I don’t know, whatever, some 8020 rule, basically going on with taxation, I’ll try and track it down and put the the exact figures in the show notes. And when I did some work with Darren Nelson, and with Dan Mitchell, we did some work for a think tank in Maine, the state of Maine in New England, we discovered the same with their their state tax system. I mean, you had 90 or so maybe, yeah, oh, you had dozens and dozens of taxes, maybe it was 70 or something like that. But there was only, I think it was only like four of them, it was a handful of them that raised 90% of the revenue or something like that. So you got to wonder about the administrative costs of having all of those other, you know, dozens of small taxes and charges, is it efficient to have them? Or should we just raise the revenue with the big tax levers? Should we just use things? Like, if we have an income tax, or if you have a consumption tax or or a sales tax or whatever, should you just use those rather than having taxes on on all of these different to different things, all of these different activities like a bed tax or taxes on the production of specific commodities, particular particular crustaceans, for example, if I remember correctly, so yeah, I think, you know, Smith’s onto something there. And then he gives some other examples. Secondly, he’s talking about taxes, they may obstruct the industry of the people and discourage them from applying to certain branches of business, which might give maintenance and employment to great multitudes. Okay, so when economists think about efficiency, costs of taxation, this is essentially what they’re concerned about. They’re concerned about taxes, discouraging work effort. They’re concerned about taxes discouraging investment in new projects of our topical example, in the state of Queensland where I am in Australia. We have a state government that a couple of years ago, introduced some new tiers in the coal royalty rates, which could be seen as some sort of super profits tax in a why they were they saw the coal price just shoot through the roof really just incredible. Up to 400 500 US dollars a tonne for coking coal at one stage, I mean prices that they never ever thought they’d see. And so they tried to get some of that upside. And, you know, it’s brought it brought a lot of money into the state. And there’s a, you know, there’s a big debate about I mean, if it was really a windfall gain that these coal companies were getting, then you know, what’s the big what’s the big deal? The Capitol is sunk. They’re still making a lot of money, the state governments just getting a share of it, what’s the big deal? But then the company said, Well, how can we trust you in the future, there’s this, there’s risk that you could do something, something, you know, that could be expropriation, more expropriation in the future. So there’s this there’s this risk there. And look, you know, there’s something to that. I mean, I mean, I wouldn’t like to say that we’re an emerging economy here in Queensland, but this is a sort of thing that does happen in emerging or developing economies in from time to time. And we’ve seen various examples of, of, of populace who have tried to nationalise or take over assets of, of foreign companies. And then you had well, you know, various examples. Masa, DAG, in, in Iran in the 50s, you had NASA in Egypt with Suez Canal. So look, it’s not something that never happens. And, you know, maybe there is some risk there. So there’s that argument about that. And, and then bhp, I think it was one of the companies came out and said, Well, this is going to stop us from investing in the future. Okay. So that’s an example of where you have a tax and it could discourage investment, it could discourage economic activity, the creation of jobs, likewise, with income tax, if the income tax rates too high, then why would I go and work an additional hour? Maybe I’d rather take some leisure time. And I think we’re probably all, you know, all understand how that mechanism could work. There is a debate about just how significant that is. And people like John Kenneth Galbraith would argue that, well, high income earners are people who are driven, they’re just going to work hard anyway, they’re not really going to care about how much tax they’ll pay. But, look, I think the evidence is pretty clear, it does have an impact of some kind. And, I mean, you’re not going to be completely altruistic and, and work for all those additional hours and work hard for nothing. So there’s obviously some sort of impact there. And this is a point that that Dan Mitchell often makes, and in fact, I chatted with damage. Also, Dan Mitchell, the well known us commentator on public finance issues, Dan was on the show, several episodes ago talking about his new book, about the greatest Ponzi scheme on Earth. So he’s talking about the problems with the US budget, particularly with Social Security, the trust fund is going to run out of money in the early 2030s. And that means there’s an automatic cut in benefits, and less, they can sort things out before then. So great interview, I’m gonna put a link in the show notes. But right now, what I’m going to do is I’m going to play a clip from my conversation with Dan, to give you a taste of what we talked about. And this is Dan on the link between taxes and growth. It’s illustrating well link between high taxes and lower growth. And it illustrates the point that I’ve been talking about with efficiency, about efficiency.

Dan Mitchell  48:59

Now, I’m never one to say, Oh, you raise this tax or that tax, there’s going to be a recession. I worry more about if you raise this tax or that tax, the long run growth rate will decline. And even if it only two times a small amount, maybe two tenths of 1% a year that has massive long run implications because of the wedge effect over time. And then, and I think that even left wing economists, the honest ones are going to admit that higher marginal tax rates on work saving and investing are not good for growth. So as GDP gets smaller and smaller over time, at least in terms of compared to some baseline projection, that means Oregon tax revenue because there’s less national income to tax.

Gene Tunny  49:45

Okay, so that was Dan Mitchell. That was from a recent episode where we talked about his new book, The Greatest Ponzi scheme on Earth. So yeah, I think Dan really gave a good you know, a good summary there or he made a good point about Are these these taxes and they can have adversely affect economic growth? And he’s right there is. There is evidence from international bodies or the OECD or IMF, there are cross country econometric studies that, that do that do show that link. So, yep, good stuff from damage. All right, we’re getting getting toward the end a bit to try and wrap this up. I never thought I’d be able to talk so much about these. Maxim’s of taxation The time has really flown right. And then Adam Smith gives a a couple of other examples of how this adverse efficiency impact can come about. He talks about thirdly, by the forfeitures, and other penalties, which those unfortunate individuals incur, who attempt unsuccessfully to evade the tax, it may frequently ruin them, and thereby put an end to the benefit which the community might have received from the employment of their capitals. Okay, so So and then he goes on to talk about smuggling in in judicious tax offers a great temptation to smuggling and then he talks about, well, you know, people have this temptation to smuggle, and then they get into trouble with the law, and that ruins them. So that’s, that’s all very terrible. And look, I think, I mean, this is still going on, right? And there’s an example of this that’s very close to home. For me. Well, allegedly. We’re having this. There’s this. Well, there’s all I mean, there’s organised crime involved in illegal tobacco here in Australia. So we have just massively jacked up the taxation, the excise on tobacco. And so a pack of cigarettes now costs 40 Australian dollars or whatever it is, I mean, I don’t smoke. But I mean, I don’t know how people afford to smoke. I mean, this is why, you know, hardly anyone smokes anymore, right? Compared with 30 years ago, or even even 20 years ago, it’s that we’ve had a huge reduction, maybe, I don’t know 10%, or something about old smoke now, whereas once it would have been 60 or 70%. And we’re having this there’s a gang land war going on, because there’s all this illegal tobacco being sold. And it’s it’s been driven by the high excise the high cost of cigarettes and so I’ll put a link in the show notes to an article on this. It may be paywalled I, what I better do is just put some of the quotes from it in the show notes and what the story is, it’s how the price of a path is putting profits in gang Lords pockets. So criminologist say the de facto prohibition of cigarettes by successive federal governments hiking taxes and increasing regulation for health reasons, had created a booming illicit tobacco trade. The more government restricts a product, the more they say you can’t have it, the more it’s driven underground, and that’s when organised crime enters Bond University criminologist Terry Goldsworthy said, and then they quote another crime expert Dr. Martin, he said illegal tobacco products accounted for about 25% of the entire market. With a huge illicit trade in vapes also emerging following recent government crackdowns, the black market for smokes is huge, is growing bigger because the government is continuing to increase the price of smokes more and more. The more that happens, the more the criminal groups that supply the black market, lick their lips and think fantastic. We can just grow our market share even further. Dr. Martin said government policies aimed at stamping out smoking completely were foolish and unrealistic. Absolutely. So I think that’s consistent with how economists think about these sorts of things. I mean, you can’t really prohibit things we know that from prohibition, you just create this massive black market and you end up putting profits in the pockets of gang wards and I said this this hit close to home because around the corner from me now I don’t know exactly what happens. So you don’t want to create an awful but this is there was a vape shop around the corner from me on wicked terrorists that Spring Hill. That was well there was this suspicious fire. So police are in there’s a there’s a shot of it in this article. With the burned out shop, police investigating a potentially suspicious fire at a vape shop on Wickham terrace at Spring Hill and this is in an hour article on how the price of a puff is putting profits in gang Lord’s pockets. So it says tobacco shops in Queensland and interstate have been targeted in a spate of fire bombings and a bit of turf war as incredible figures show just how rough the black market is and how easy it is to get hold of dirt cheap illegal cigarettes. Okay, so maybe there’s some scope to have a higher excise on smokes on tobacco, because there are those health risks with tobacco, no doubt, I mean, all the deaths from lung cancer. But if you set it too high, then you’re going to have these adverse unintended consequences. And I think that is what Adam Smith was getting at, in that. That third type of efficiency cost of taxation. So, again, well done Adam Smith, and his final, the final way that you end up with his efficiency cost. He says, fourthly, by subjecting the people to the frequent visits and the odious examination of the tax gatherers, it may expose them to much unnecessary trouble vexation and oppression. And though vexation is not strictly speaking, expense, it is certainly equivalent to the expense of which every man would be willing to redeem himself from it. Okay, so some, some brilliant writers from Adam Smith. And that’s, that’s the final maximum of taxation of his principles of taxation as one about efficiency. And I mean, not that it’s not all, not every principle of economics is in the Wealth of Nations, but a lot of them are, and his writing on taxation on what makes a good taxation system that is still fresh, 250 years also after he wrote it. So absolutely. Go out and grab yourself a copy of the Wealth of Nations books fortifies Penguin Classics as a great addition of it that I’ve been that I’ve been reading. Do yourself a favour, brilliant book, says, So are the first three books of the Wealth of Nations. And I’m gonna have to come back to Adam Smith, because I think there’s so much in it. If you’d like to hear more about Adam Smith, let me know if you’ve got any thoughts on what I talked about with taxation? Do we agree, do you disagree? Let me know. I’d love to know what you think about how we design our tax system. What improvements do you think we could make? What’s your perspective on equity? Are you concerned about wealth inequality? Or are you more of the taxation is theft? View? So please let me know I’d love to love to hear your thoughts. Right. I better wrap this up. Thanks for for joining me. It’s been really great to talk about Adam Smith and, and talk about these public finance issues that, that I think about a lot and that I’ve been writing about in my new book. Okay. Thanks for joining me. Right. Oh, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com, or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

59:01

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this where to begin your own podcasting journey head on over to obsidian-productions.com

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Uncategorized

Reagan, Supply-side Economics, and Trump w/ Ed Oswald – EP238

This episode explores the profound influence of Reaganomics and its enduring legacy in American economic policy with tax expert and former US Treasury attorney Ed Oswald. He is the author of a new book, “From Ronald to Donald: How the Myth of Reagan Became the Cult of Trump”. Oswald discusses the transition from Reagan’s tax reforms to Trump’s tax policies, highlighting the continuity in supply-side economics and its implications for fiscal policy and the national debt.

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: Edwin G. Oswald

Edwin G. Oswald is a partner with the law firm of Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe LLP, resident in Washington D.C. He served as an attorney-advisor in the United States Treasury’s Office of Tax Legislative Counsel during the Clinton Administration. He is a Fellow of the American College of Tax Counsel and a frequent lecturer on financing State and local infrastructure and the federal taxation of municipal debt. The book is a personal project of Mr. Oswald’s and the views and opinions expressed herein are those of the co-authors and do not represent the views and opinions of Orrick.

What’s covered in EP238

  • Reagan’s economic policies and their impact on the US deficit. (0:00)
  • Supply-side economics and its impact on US deficits. (6:55)
  • Reaganomics and its impact, and the impact of Clinton administration policies (e.g. NAFTA, repeal of Glass-Steagall). (16:14)
  • Reagan and Trump similarities, tax cuts, and budget. (26:24)
  • Tax policy and its impact on the economy. (33:22)

Takeaways

  1. Reagan’s economic policies, particularly his tax cuts, have had a lasting influence on American politics, setting a precedent followed by later administrations including Trump’s.
  2. Ed Oswald argues that supply-side economic policies from Reagan to Trump show a consistent belief in tax cuts for the wealthy as a means to stimulate economic growth, despite debates about their effectiveness and impact on the national debt.
  3. Addressing the US debt will likely require a balanced approach of both tax increases and spending cuts, in Ed’s view.

Links relevant to the conversation

Ed’s book: https://www.amazon.com.au/Ronald-Donald-Reagan-Became-Trump/dp/1476690324 

Ed’s bio: https://www.edwingoswald.com/ 

Recent episode with Dan Mitchell on US debt:

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/04/17/is-uncle-sam-running-a-ponzi-scheme-with-the-national-debt-w-dr-dan-mitchell-ep235

Transcript: The Tax Guru the WSJ says has Wall Street’s “Strangest Hustle”: w/ Andy Lee, Parallaxes Capital – EP237

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Ed Oswald  00:00

I think in many ways some of that seed corn was was laid down by Ronald Reagan in terms of, you know, disrespect for government and in frankly, the proper role of government. Although, again, I agree with your point that certainly, you know, Reagan’s cabinet was filled with adults was filled with, you know, many competent people. But still the broadcast far and wide was, government is the problem.

Gene Tunny  00:39

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host, Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, and welcome to the show. Today we’re joined by Edie Oswald, a prominent taxation expert and lawyer based in Washington DC. He’s a former attorney advisor to the US Treasury Department. And he’s the co author of a new book, from Ronald to Donald how the myth of Reagan became the cult of Trump. In our conversation, we delve into the profound influence that the Reagan administration had on American and global economic policy. We also explore Trump’s relationship with Reagan’s legacy and the potential implications of a second Trump presidency. Okay, I’d love to hear your thoughts on my discussion today with it. Also, please let me know your ideas on how I can improve the show. My contact details are in the show notes. Without further ado, let’s dive into the episode. Enjoy it Oswald is great to be speaking with you about your new book.

Ed Oswald  02:08

Thank you, Jane. Pleasure to be here.

Gene Tunny  02:10

Very good. Yes. From Ronald to Donald I, I learned quite a fair bit about Reagan that I didn’t know. So I enjoyed reading it for that reason. In particular, as someone with Irish ancestry myself, I was, I was surprised to learn, I didn’t realise and I mean, as you point out, or your you and your co author point out, it’s obvious once you realise, you think about his last name, that he had that Irish ancestry and he and for political reasons, it was something he didn’t reveal in the campaign, which I found fascinating and the story about his the origin of his nickname, Dutch, his, his underprivileged background, it’s a rather extraordinary story to to begin with, what did you find most fascinating in your, when researching the life of Reagan for this book? Well,

Ed Oswald  03:06

thank you, Jean. You know, what I found most interesting is, is really subtle, although he didn’t say much about it. Though his relationship with his father. His father was basically a shoe salesman. His father was an alcoholic, that always had a battle with the bottle. I think how Reagan tried to grapple with that somewhat, both in terms of acknowledging it, and then somebody denying it. But I think that did have an impact on his view of the world and how he carried himself. Right.

Gene Tunny  03:43

Yeah, yeah, indeed. That’s interesting, too, because they, you know, Trump has an interesting relationship with with alcohol too, because he, I think his brother was an alcoholic and died of alcoholism or, or an illness related to it. I can’t remember. Exactly. And so Trump himself doesn’t drink. So that’s, uh, yeah, that’s that’s, that’s interesting after that, to go revisit that part of Reagan’s story. To get into the, you know, what most interests me about the book? Is these economic issues, because Reagan’s obviously a pivotal figure in economic history of the 20th century. Would you be able to take us through what was so different or revolutionary even about Reagan’s economic policies for his head?

Ed Oswald  04:34

Yeah, thank you. So, you know, you have to remember the political scene in the United States in the late 70s, where you had, you know, Jimmy Carter was president. We were going through a high inflationary period, we were dealing with the remnants of a gas crisis and energy crisis. We were dealing with the Iranian hostage crisis, it was really quite a dire time and America. And I guess really to mirror what Joe Biden has been saying lately in terms of him wanting the wealthy to pay their fair share. US tax policy, historically had high tax marginal, high, high marginal tax rates, effectively, from the beginning of really World War Two, the wealthy pay their fair share Republican tax rates on the rise in how or the highest marginal rate was, you know, 90 or above, with Nixon, it was 70 or above. So in terms of, you know, the the spectrum of the US taxes, when Reagan came in with, with the notion of something called supply side economics, which is basically the notion that the tax rates in the country are too high. And if we cut tax rates and tax rates significantly, which Reagan did, we can talk more about, primarily towards the wealthy. The economic benefits will trickle down to the lower rungs of the economic spec, that being the wealthy, the wealthy, the well to do, the industrialists will have more capital, they’ll have more money to spend. And therefore, that we’ll juice the economy and move us forward. Move us if you will, out of the Jimmy Carter era. You know, and what, what we can talk more about really the consequences of that. But you know, what that really led to was a ballooning of the US deficit. And a lot of really negative effects that way try to illustrate the highlight in the book.

Gene Tunny  06:54

Yeah, gotcha. So this is the supply side doctrine. And this was based on the Laffer curve is that concept of the Laffer curve? So one of the advisors to Reagan was art laffer. And, I mean, I guess how economists think about it nowadays is that, you know, there’s obviously some efficiency loss associated with taxes and, and that efficiency loss or the cost of taxation, the deadweight loss, so to speak, that increases disproportionately or at a faster rate than the increase in the tax rate. So essentially, I think there’s some there’s some truth to this, that there is an adverse impact. But the the issue is, is where you are on that Laffer curve. And, you know, there’s so they may have got some there may have been some offset from increased economic activity, but there wasn’t enough to to actually compensate for the loss of income from the cut in the rates. So that’s what you’re you’re talking about, isn’t it? So this is actually something that contributed to future deficits. Is that right? Yeah,

Ed Oswald  08:04

I think that’s well said that, you know, I think a well designed tax cut, you know, can lead to, you know, economic growth. And as you say, it’s a struggle a little bit for what that sweet spot is. But really, where supply side economics have gone within the GOP or GOP doctrine or conservative doctrine is that basically, you know, tax cuts, if you will pay for themselves. That’s really that’s really the slogan. That’s not true. Every tax cut does, you know, result in a loss of revenue, and no tax cut will pay for itself. We do state in the book that in that time, 1980 1981, with the highest marginal rate being 70%. It was probably a good time for a tax cut. It was probably a good time to deregulate the economy. But what what we kind of highlight in the book is that, you know, Reagan’s policies really live on some 40 years later, we’re still living with supply side economics within the United States. The notion that tax cuts do not pay for themselves have led to a really a ballooning of the national debt. The national debt when Reagan came into office was slightly less than one tray and and when he left off his office, it was close to 3 trillion. So although Reagan really did rail against the deficit, and the balanced budget, the US deficit increased 171% under Reagan, which, you know, is a bit shocking in terms of his paradigm and the Reagan missed in terms of a budget hawk. Gotcha.

Gene Tunny  10:00

Now these the tax cuts or the supply side economics that was controversial at the time, wasn’t it? As you point out, so George Bush Senior HW Bush, I mean, I think he was a Yale economics major, wasn’t he? I mean, he had, you know, he was a yeah, yes. Yes. And he, as you point out, he famously called it voodoo economic policy. And you also mentioned, David Stockman, what can you remind us? What was Stockmans critique? Was it was he concerned about supply side economics and the logic of it all? Well,

Ed Oswald  10:36

yeah, so David Stockman was the Reagan’s first head of OMB, the Office of Management and Budget, and really his his wing man, if you will, in terms of tax policy, implementing the significant tax cuts, you know, just to give the listeners a sense of perspective, when Reagan came into office in 1980, again, it became president in 81, the highest marginal tax rate in the US was 70%. And when he left in 1988, the highest marginal rate was 28%. So really a dramatic dramatic reduction and the highest marginal rate within the US. So stock when was really he was a former congressman from Michigan, really rate, you know, the point man for the budget, budget policy, tax policy, what the significant tax cuts have on spending and so forth. And I believe that, you know, initially, Stockman was really a disciple. He believed in supply side economics. He believed that the tax cuts would move the economy forward. But the other end of a revolution, and I think he says this, in terms of the Reagan Revolution, is not only do you need a revolution in tax rates, but you need a revolution in terms of spending. And if you’re looking at, if you’re looking at the significant spending on the US side, it’s a big part of his social security, that big targeted because Medicare, big part of it is the US defence budget. And I think that Stockman became more and more alarmed. And he read, he really wrote extensively about this, that this revolution was only one side, it was really a revolution on the revenue side, not the spending side. And ultimately realised, politically, although Reagan ran on this revolution, it was kind of a revolution to name only. And he became more and more alarmed as he got signals from the point persons and within budget, that Reagan is not going to take on significant domestic spending. Hence, I think his chagrin down the road, and also the blurring of the US national debt there. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  13:10

yeah. I think the best case that can be made for and I’m not necessarily advocating for this, but I think the best case that can be made for cutting taxes in advance of spending cuts is that there’s that starve the beast idea, isn’t there? I think that’s the that’s the concept that eventually this will force Congress to make the hard decisions. But I mean, so far that that really hasn’t happened yet. And so you trace this, this policy or this, you see this supply side economics as being influential in future administrations? Can you talk about that, please, Edwin? I mean, what what administration’s or what policies has it influenced? Post Reagan?

Ed Oswald  13:54

Yeah, I’d be happy to. So it’s clearly influenced. George W. Bush, Herbert Walker, his son, who initiated significant supply side tax cuts in 2001. Perhaps more sun are bringing in son of Bush, if you will, in terms of the least, tax policy outlook, he didn’t see the Voodoo that his father did. And then in 2017, really, frankly, Trump’s only Trump’s real signature domestic legislation was the 2017 tax cuts and Jobs Act, which is which was not quite as significant tax cuts as the 2001 George W. Bush, but still quite significant in terms of supply side economics and having, you know, tax cuts weighted towards the wealthy. I would say Jean, you know, one one general observation I would make just in terms of you US policy, US domestic policy, which is, I think, hamstrung the Democratic Party somewhat, is if you if you have one major political party believing that tax cuts pay for themselves, you know, tax cuts are the major elixir that moves the economy forward. And then you have another party that believes in math, or math and science, and they will get into that, too, is very hard for the Democratic Party to say, you know, look, folks, we have large national debt, tax cuts don’t pay for themselves, and therefore we want to raise taxes not lower than, again, if one party believes in math and the other party doesn’t, it really does handicap the Democratic Party, that being Barack Obama, or Bill Clinton, people who were elected later than Ronald Reagan, to really raise rates significantly, because it’s not politically popular. In other words, to get cutting taxes as easy, raising taxes is difficult. It’s kind of like when your mother says eat your vegetables. The first reaction is no, I’d rather have

Gene Tunny  16:14

candy. Yeah, yeah. So yeah, this is an interesting point to explore. So we might go through this. I had Dan Mitchell on the show the other week, he’s got his new book out, the greatest Ponzi scheme on Earth with with Rubin, you know, you know, Dan, if you’ve heard of damage, I’ve heard about the book. Yes, yes. Yes. And I mean, Dan’s argument is that well, actually, I mean, it’s not the taxes is the issue with suspending as the out of control entitlements. So yeah, I guess you can I mean, there is going to be that political debate about what’s the best way to, to, to deal with this with this debt? And I mean, one options, definitely tax increases, which put them in that’s politically unpopular. I mean. Yeah. I mean, maybe that’s the through the mean, your argument is that that’s due to this, this myth of Reagan, the supply side economics, the view that taxes are good for growth and can help pay for themselves? I mean, that’s, that’s a hypothesis that that’s fair enough. But yeah, but I mean, it is, I guess there is a legitimate debate about what the best way to fix the the debt is, and whether in Dan’s argument is that, well, if you just let them raise more taxes, they’ll just find more things to spend it on, and you’re not really going to solve the problem. So how would you like to respond to that at all that otherwise, we’re gonna move on to something else? I just thought I’d make that observation. Because I thought that was an interesting argument from Dan. Yeah,

Ed Oswald  17:44

I mean, briefly, I really think at this point, you know, with an ageing US population, with significant national debt, racked up over 40 years of largely peace and prosperity, I frankly, think there has to be, you know, a balanced approach, there’s got to be, you know, a level of mature adult discussion about both raising taxes. And also, I think, looking at entitlements and looking at spending, looking at the fact that, you know, people are living longer, and it just really needs to be a balanced approach. And I think, a sober discussion, that, you know, there’s no free lunch. Ultimately, this has to be paid for, right now a payment for borrowing from future generations. And, you know, there needs to be a reckoning, if you will.

Gene Tunny  18:39

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  18:45

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with adept economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice. We can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world. You can get in touch via our website, www dot adapt economics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  19:14

Now back to the show. So one thing I want to explore. So you I mean, this is a really damning critique of Reagan and Ngop administration’s. I mean, you’re essentially blaming them for all Well, I mean, maybe this is a mischaracterization, but it’s very strong critique of Reagan, and then how how that has influenced GOP policy in the future. And so you’re right. It was Reagan who said America on a course of hyper capitalism and wholesale industry deregulation. The legacy of Reaganism is all around us heedless consumption. Reduction in the progressivity of the tax code, weaken environmental laws, a war against expertise, and government legitimising structural budget deficits and widening economic Inequality. What I’d like to ask and I’d like you to reflect on is I mean, to what extent is the Democratic Party? Part of the problem here? Right? Because? I mean, I mean, and as an economist, I think the mean, I’m not necessarily criticising some of these policy decisions, because I was probably support would have been supportive of them at the time. But the didn’t do regulation begin under Carter, with the airlines. And then I mean, Reagan, then took on the unions and, you know, did further deregulation, Clinton, the Clinton administration had the NAFTA agreement, which Ross Perot said, created this great, great sucking sound out of the data centre in New Mexico. Glass Steagall was repealed by the Clinton administration, with Rubin and summers. So what’s the Democratic Party’s role in all of this as well, please, Edwin?

Ed Oswald  20:56

Yeah, fair, quite fair question. And I think that, you know, in the wake in the wake of Reagan, in the wake of George Herbert Walker Bush, there was certainly I think, a reset, you know, within the Democratic Party, in terms of thinking about the New Deal, thinking about the the Great Society of Lyndon Johnson, recognising that Americans after 12 years of having a Republican in the White House, that they became accustom and conditioned to lower tax rates. So I think there frankly, had to be, you know, an accommodation, if you want to be a successful political party, saying, at least at that point, we need more government and higher taxes is not going to get you elected, it’s not going to get you elected, you know, post Reagan, the great communicator, the man who really, I think, conditioned Americans to think about our society in tax policy and other things in in very convincing and very convincing ways. So I think there Yeah, I think there were compromises. And I think, though, though, although, you know, Bill Clinton did raise taxes, he did raise the highest marginal tax rate, up to 39.6. If you look at that, by historical standards, it’s you know, it’s way wider the mark. So I think that was kind of an April mentalism post Reagan to move to shift the ball back in a somewhat progressive nature. But it was a compromise given, I think, one Reagan’s presidency and to the way that, you know, US society had to evolve at that point. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  22:56

Yeah. And I think one point, the important point about the Clinton administration, and to its credit, it did work with the Congress to, to rein in the budget. And I think you ran some budget surpluses in the late 90s. Yeah, yeah. So that was that was to its credit. Okay. One of the things I found interesting and I want to ask you about this specifically for among those that are the charges against Reaganism, you’re talking about a war against expertise and government now, is this just about supply side economics? Or is it more general? Because I mean, to me, I mean, looking at the like that Reagan had a very impressive cabinet lineup. And then you had people like James Baker, George Shultz, Weinberger, it seemed to be a fairly strong cabinet of people with expertise. So what’s your critique? There, please, Edwin, what is that war against expertise and government that you see

Ed Oswald  23:58

here? So let me just maybe give you a little bit of a a backdrop. I think one thing we tried to make it clear in the book is certainly that the character of Reagan and Trump, I think, is quite different. And we try to make this frankly, in chapter one, we try to make that distinction that you know, Reagan, you know, had Reagan was a moral person. You know, Reagan had shame. Reagan had true, you know, legit government bonafide, he was a two term governor of California. So he come he came to the table, both as a man and with experience very different than what Donald Trump came with. So we’re not saying the character of Trump and Reagan is similar. We in fact, say it’s this song. But the one to your point. You know, one of the things that I think start is down the road would have, perhaps dismissing expertise was very famously in his inauguration speech and the January 2019 81. Reagan said at the present time, government is not the solution to our problem. government is the problem that’s been somewhat mythologized by the GOP over the year in terms of shorthand that government is the problem. Yeah, I think I think implicit is that is contempt frankly, contempt for government contempt for bureaucrats. You see aspects of that really bubbling up in the GOP in terms of global warming. You know, in terms of respect to science, and the poor until the house scientists become politicised over the last few decades. And I really think in many ways, some of that seed corn was was laid down by Ronald Reagan in terms of, you know, disrespect for government and in frankly, the proper role of government. Although, again, I agree with your point that certainly, you know, Reagan’s cabinet was filled with adults was filled with many competent people. But still the broadcast far and wide was government is the problem. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  26:23

yeah. I mean, I learned I didn’t know that there was that qualification, or how he began that famous statement. So I learned something from that as well. And yeah, it makes more sense. And it sounds more, it sounds more sensible. And it sounds more like something you would say at that inauguration without being where you’re not familiar. It was an otherwise it’s a very ideological statement, a very broad brush statement. But with that qualification, it does make more sense. So I think it was good for me to to learn that. So I really appreciate that. That was a good part of the book. Okay. Yeah. Right. Oh, so I guess what I want to ask now it is, I mean, what’s the link with with Trump? I mean, where are how many years? Is it? 35 or 36 years since Reagan was in the White House? I mean, how is this? How is this relevant to? I mean, I guess we’re talking about the the tax cuts and the belief in their, their ability to pay for themselves. Okay, that’s an argument you can make. But what about Trump? Is Trump at any one in in any way influenced by the Reagan legacy? Or is he a he’s a man with his own views? I mean, he’s a, he’s his own force of the universe, really, rather than inspired by Reagan. I mean, how do you see the connection between Trump and Reagan?

Ed Oswald  27:47

Yeah. So, you know, as we, as we wrote the book, and certainly part of the book was written when during the Trump presidency, although it’s a book primarily on Reagan, we couldn’t help but not see the connection somewhat between, you know, Reagan and Trump and let me give you kind of desensitise. You know, for So for starters, you know, Reagan really was the first, you know, Magog president, if you will, if you recall, Reagan’s slogan back in 1980. Was let’s make America great again. Trump shorthand did that by one word, make America great again. So they both really ran on the same slogan just in terms of commonality. And what if you will, what Trump took from Reagan, to I think, gene that the DNA of the campaigns were quite similar. There was contempt for government, I think, contempt for expertise, both pro tax cut, both somewhat based in nationalism. And I think also, more importantly, both based on some aspects of nostalgia, hence, America Great Again, you know, they were both democrats are certainly portions of their lives. You know, Reagan was, ironically, a new dealer, until the 60s and Reagan and Trump was a Democrat. For a large portion of their lives. They didn’t have his life. They were both divorced. Neither one was really a student of government. Neither one was deep and expertise. No one really took on a political career, took on politics as a political career. And I think they’re also, frankly, both you know, mythmakers, and I think they both played a long, perhaps a weakness in the American psyche to believe mediated mythology, as opposed to one meeting reality. You know, Reagan was the Marlboro Man, the man on the books, Reagan was you know, Morning in America, Trump was the man with the Midas touch the entrepreneur, the character you see from, from the apprentice. So they both played upon those myths, which was a strong suit for for both of them in terms of dealing with the media.

Gene Tunny  30:18

Yeah, gotcha. Okay. And I mean, what are your thoughts on what? What we could see in terms of economic policy? If there is a another Trump administration? I mean, I, I mean, being in Australia, it’s hard for me to make an assessment of, of what’s going on, sometimes I hear, I’ll look at, it’s easily going to be Trump, it’s going to be a Wipeout. And then other times I hear I’ll hang on not so don’t be so sure about that. There’s a way for, for, for Biden to hang on. So I’ve got a really got no idea who’s going to win the election. I mean, my suspicion is it will be Trump and that, therefore we should start thinking about what, whether there’ll be economic policy changes. Do you have any thoughts on that? Edwin? What’s the Do you have any? Can you look into the crystal ball for us, please? Yeah,

Ed Oswald  31:10

so it’s certainly going to be a tight race. I would say just on the political front, you know, you know, Donald Trump now is in the middle of a criminal trial in New York City, taking him off the campaign trail, and perhaps people are taking a second look at some of the facts and circumstances there. But I would say, Jane, in terms of, you know, economic policy tax policy, if Trump is reelected, you know, an important element of that is whether the House and Senate also turned Republican. That’s an important fact there. If Trump is reelected, and they and the GOP wins the House and Senate, then I think you’ll see, you know, more tax cuts, at least one thing to highlight is many aspects of Trump’s 2017 Tax Act, expire at the end of 2025. So you’ll do so I think you’ll see a lot of energy, about renewing those tax cuts, and perhaps even further tax cuts above and beyond what Trump did in 2017. You know, if Trump is reelected, but doesn’t take the House and Senate, well, then you’re probably looking for some type of compromise, you know, along perhaps party or various lines there. It’ll be much more difficult, I think, for Trump to press on in a significant way and material way in terms of tax cuts, if he doesn’t have both underlying houses as well.

Gene Tunny  32:55

Yeah, yeah. I mean, given the state of the, the budget of it, it’d be good, be courageous to try and get additional tax cuts. I mean, whether, you know, you might you know, for some of us who are more on the, you know, classical classically liberal side of things, we might say, well, it’s, you know, it’d be good to have a smaller government and have, you know, tax cuts. But yeah, if you don’t cut spending, then that’s problematic. And it’s adding to the, the data. And you’ve already got a problem there. And I think one of the one of the important messages of your book, which I liked is that you’ve got to have, you’ve got to have this respect for the numbers. And to some extent, some of these policies that have been advanced, they seem to not have a, you know, the advocates may not understand the actual arithmetic. So I think that’s a, that’s a fair point. And it is such a change. And I might sort of start to wrap up, but you quote JFK, JFK to Yale University’s Class of 1962. And I mean, this just highlights the change that we’ve had that, like, JFK said that the differences today are usually a matter of degree what is at stake today is not some grand warfare of rival ideologies, which will sweep the country with passion. But the practical management of a modern economy, the unravelling of America’s post war governing consensus began with the election of Ronald Wilson Reagan. Okay. So very, very strong charge there. Before we wrap up, Edwin, anything else? Before we should conclude anything else you’d like to add?

Ed Oswald  34:31

Well, just maybe just reflect upon that passage you quoted is? You know, I liked that passage. Well, one, you know, I quote, JFK, as you know, a number of times in the book, just in terms of, although, you know, a Democratic president, I think he was very eloquent and staining the states and the times of his presidency. A and going really back perhaps to where we started that, you know, in terms of tax policy, historically, at least up to 1980, you did not have really a dramatic difference in tax rates between the GOP and the Democratic Party. As we started earlier, you had tax rates, the wealthy really did pay their fair share, regardless of who is elect building, because, you know, deficits mattered, the Balanced Budget Narrative, paying our bills matters. And all that really did change in 1981. Were really there was a revisiting of what JFK said about managing managing a modern economy. And looking at things really with very different prism in stark contrast, in terms of governing philosophy. Hence, here we are 40 years later, still in the middle of that, in many ways, still dealing with, you know, Reagan’s tax policies. In the wake of the deficit here.

Gene Tunny  36:13

Rock Gotcha. Okay. Yep. I mean, it’s a, it’s a well argued book. And there’s a lot of really interesting stories in there a lot of things I learned. So I’ll definitely recommend it. I’ll put a link in the show notes, I suppose, where, and I might have to come back to this in a future episode, what I’d like to explore, and it’s to what extent I mean, can we just say it’s, is it because of the tax rates? Or is it also because of, you know, there was the China shock that David Autor talks about, there’s the, you know, the NAFTA, and those, you know, both of those developments, they had implications for the middle America, so to speak, a lot of towns in, in the Midwest and in, in rural America were were badly affected by by those shocks. And you’ve also got the skill biassed technological change. We’ve got the internet and all of that, which is led to increased inequality. So that’s one thing I’d like to explore a bit more I know, it’s, you would have had the, you know, your your book had a slightly different focus. But as an economist, I’d probably want to explore the the empirics around that. What are the relative contributions a bit more? I don’t know if you’ve had any, before we wrap up any reflections on that? Or any if you’ve done any investigations yourself on that, Edwin?

Ed Oswald  37:34

Well, I would just say, you know, those are all those are all fair points. And I And you’re right, my my book as a kind of singularity of focus, which is really, you know, more on tax policy, and tax cuts. But I would say that what really influenced me was there was been a London School of Economics study that came out in 2020. You know, a 50 year of study, you know, based on cutting tax cuts for the wealthy looking at, you know, 18 OECD countries. Which really, you know, did, I think, empirically link, the notion of, you know, tax cuts for the wealthy lead to a largest share of the national income going to the wealthy. And I would say that, despite the events, you say, some of which we could control and some of the some of it, we can, it’s just the, you know, the macro economic situation. You know, Congress in the executive branch can control tax policy and tax rates and something within our control. And I think if we want to deal with the growing deficit with the growing income divide and wealth divide, at least tax policy is something within our control. It’s something to be more considered, if you will. Very

Gene Tunny  39:01

good. Okay. Edwin hospital. Thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed reading your book and well done on the book. Yes, I’ll definitely recommend that and put a link in the show notes. very much enjoyed the conversation. Look forward to speaking sometime in the future.

Ed Oswald  39:19

Here was my pleasure. Thank you very much for having me on.

Gene Tunny  39:23

rato, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting outlets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

40:10

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this where to begin your own podcasting journey, head on over to obsidian-productions.com

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

The Tax Guru the WSJ says has Wall Street’s “Strangest Hustle”: w/ Andy Lee, Parallaxes Capital – EP237

According to the Wall Street Journal, this episode’s guest Andy Lee is “The Tax Whiz With the Strangest Hustle on Wall Street”. He’s the founder and CIO of Parallaxes Capital, and he joins us to talk about tax receivable agreements (TRAs). Andy explained what TRAs are, how they come about for companies going public such as Shake Shack in 2015, and why he’s investing in them. Disclaimer: Nothing in this episode should be construed as financial or investment advice. 

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: Andy Lee, Founder and CIO of Parallaxes Capital

Andy founded Parallaxes Capital in 2017. Previously, he was with Lone Star Funds, focused on investing in the Americas. He began his career at Citigroup.

Andy graduated from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with a Masters in Accountancy and a Bachelors in Finance and Accountancy.

Andy has been featured in publications including Wall Street Journal, Capital Allocators, Institutional Investor, NBC, Forbes, ReOrg Radio and Fitch’s LevFin Insights. He has spoken at events and conferences for organizations such as the Association of Asian American Investment Managers (“AAAIM”) and leading academic institutions including the University of Illinois, University of Pennsylvania and Texas Christian University (“TCU”)

When Andy is not working, he enjoys taking his corgi (Taco) on long walks.

Fun Fact: Andy, rarely one to back down from highly ambitious goals, ran a marathon less than 180 days from ACL, MCL and PCL surgery.

Source: https://parallaxescapital.com/our-team/ 

What’s covered in EP237

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • TRAs for companies going public in the US. (6:18)
  • TRAs agreements and their value for private equity investors (i.e. pre-IPO owners). (12:52)
  • Tax refunds, risk management, and investment opportunities. (19:57)
  • TRAs and investment strategies. (24:47)
  • TRAs and their potential as a diversified investment. (30:55)

Takeaways

  1. TRAs convert future corporate tax savings (e.g. from depreciation expenses) into current income streams.
  2. TRAs provide long-dated, typically 15-year income streams that can be sold by pre-IPO owners (e.g., private equity investors).  
  3.  Private equity firms use TRAs to increase their earnings from the sale of businesses they’ve invested in. 
  4. Ideal Candidates for TRAs are large, stable companies with predictable long-term profitability (e.g. Shake Shack), rather than high-growth tech startups which often lack immediate profitability.
  5. US tax expertise is required to properly analyze and invest in TRAs.

Links relevant to the conversation

WSJ article about Andy, “The Tax Whiz With the Strangest Hustle on Wall Street”: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/tax-whiz-strange-hustle-wall-street-d51ddbc6 

Parallaxes Capital: https://parallaxescapital.com/ 

Lumo Coffee promotion

Lumo Coffee Discount: Visit Lumo Coffee (lumocoffee.com) and use code EXPLORED20 for a 20% discount until April 30, 2024.

Transcript: The Tax Guru the WSJ says has Wall Street’s “Strangest Hustle”: w/ Andy Lee, Parallaxes Capital – EP237

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Andy Lee  00:04

Tax is the largest asset class in the world that no one’s ever heard of. It’s a very much part of the fabric of our society. Like there are so many avenues through which tax assets are expressed and are monetized.

Gene Tunny  00:26

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you could join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, and welcome to the show. In this episode, I talked to the man that the Wall Street Journal has described as the tax whiz with the strangest hustle on Wall Street. It’s Andy Lee from parallaxes capital and we’re talking about tax receivable agreements T RAS. What on earth rtra is and why has Andy invested in them? How did companies like Shake Shack end up bound by T IRAs? Stay tuned to find out. Please be aware that Andy’s firm parallaxes capital is a big investor in TRS and nothing in this episode should be treated as financial or investment advice. I would love to hear your thoughts on the discussion that I have with Andy today. So please get in touch and let me know what you think. And if you have any questions, my contact details are in the show notes. As sponsor this episode is Lumo coffee a seriously healthy organic coffee with three times a healthy antioxidants of regular coffee. Lumo coffee offers a 20% discount for economics explore listeners until 30 April 2024. Be sure to check out the show notes for more details. Without further ado, let’s dive into the episode. Enjoy. Andy Lee from parallaxes. Capital, welcome to the programme.

Andy Lee  02:09

Thank you for having me.

Gene Tunny  02:11

It’s a pleasure, Andy, I’m keen to learn about this very exotic, very interesting, and, you know, asset class I hadn’t heard of before before I learned about what you’re doing these tax receivable agreements, so keen to chat about that to start with? Could you tell us about parallaxes? Capital? What’s the idea with the name? How did you come up with the name? Absolutely.

Andy Lee  02:38

So a parallax is an astronomy term. Whereby you look at a planet from a different vantage point to arrive at a different perspective of an object. So there are several meanings in the name, the first being an ode to my old firm, it was called Lonestar funds. And so looking at a person having a different perspective, the more secular meaning around was that many people look at problems from a singular point of view. And in order to solve an equation, like you need to look at it from multiple perspectives, to arrive at multiple solution sets. And so the plural of parallax parallax cysts. And so that was as parallax was unavailable. parallaxes was, and so that was helpful. But also it talks a little bit to my faith. I’m a Christian. And as a Christian, and we’re not so much focused on the here and now, but more focused on eternity. So a very long term perspective.

Gene Tunny  03:41

Very good. Yes, it’s a it’s a good name. I always remember those that classic 1970s film with I think it was Warren Beatty, the parallax view, which is one of those great 1970s conspiracy films that I’d recommend. So yeah, very, you know, top marks on the name. So well done. I’ve got to ask me, what is parallaxes? Capital? What? So if you’re a, you’re a fund manager of some kind, or what are you actually doing?

Andy Lee  04:10

So we’re an investment manager based in the in the US and we have raised six funds dedicated to the strategy of monetizing tax receivable agreements. So a tax receivable agreement, think about it, like a long dated annuity that is not too dissimilar from a streaming royalty on metals or mining, musical royalties of pharmaceutical royalties. So long data annuity like cash flows, that we provide upfront liquidity for to holders of these assets in order for them to have to recycle that capital to do other more productive items.

Gene Tunny  04:55

Gotcha. Okay, so, a couple of things there just immediately long dated how long and by the upfront liquidity? I mean, what is this? Is this a repurchase agreement? Or are you? Are you buying them outright? What’s, how do you how are you? What’s that involve?

Andy Lee  05:16

So are the two questions the first duration lies? It’s typically a 15 year piece of paper. Just to provide a perspective on it, we actually have fun one was a 21 year of fun to hold the paper. I know I look very young as an Asian American, it’s a gift, as I’ll call it. But people weren’t sure if I was even 2001 When I went out to raise our first fund. On the second question, it is the latter. Do what you suggest that we buy these outright from counterparties, including the likes of private equity, their CO investors, management team as well as founders, providing them upfront liquidity for what is otherwise a unloved and misunderstood asset.

Gene Tunny  06:02

Okay, gotcha. Right. And what is the asset itself? So there’s obviously a stream of income coming from somewhere for this to be valuable, what is the actual underlying asset? Absolutely.

Andy Lee  06:18

Think about it almost like a tax refund, that one might receive after they file their taxes. So some here in the US, every April 15, individuals have to file their taxes, fulfilling their tax obligation to the United States. Oftentimes, many of these individuals have overpaid their taxes. And so on April 15, they would file your taxes, the US government would say, hey, Jean, you’ve overpaid your taxes by 100 bucks, we’ll pay it to you in two months. For many individuals, they might want the money immediately. And so there are businesses such as the likes of an h&r block, that would say, June instead of waiting for $100, in two months, we’ll give you $95. Today, a Buy It Now price, we do the exact same thing. But not for consumers. We do it for corporations, where they have 15 years of refunds available to them, that would come due. And so instead of waiting every year to get that annuity, they want that money today. And so we prospectively provide them that factoring solution upfront proceeds.

Gene Tunny  07:37

Ah, okay, I think okay, this is starting to make sense. Right. So what type of companies are we talking about? I mean, what from my reading? And looking into this, it looks like is this is this highly relevant to the tech sector to startups?

Andy Lee  07:55

I wish I’m the only one, it may not be the most relevant that attack sector is primarily driven by the fact that many tech firms here in United States are very focused on growth at all costs, relative to profitability, many of them, or the vast majority of the tech sector runs unprofitably Primarily because the market prior to 2020, to value them on growth, more than they did on cash flows, primarily because they believed that these were long data annuity streams. And the SAS businesses were long data annuity themes, and that whenever they stopped growing, they will become incredibly profitable. That obviously then come to fruition whenever growth stopped. So that’s not the where we primarily transact names that we’re are associated with, include the likes of a REMAX, a Shake Shack, yeah. Duffin Phelps, so large corporates that are investment grade near investment grade businesses, there’s also the Edit element that as quickly as a tech business disrupts a industry itself is vulnerable to being disrupted. And so for an investment manager like myself, focus on the space that we’re in, like, we don’t focus on the next year or next five years, we have to believe that a business is going to be a going concern for 15 years. So that’s a very different perspective or lens that you have to look at a opportunity, primarily because you might be a great business today. Do I believe that you’re gonna be a great business in 15 years, if you’re not a great business? Senior, you might be a great business for five years that will result in me getting a return of my capital. Ultimately, I’m in business to get a return on my capital. And if you’re no longer in business in your six, I got my money back. And then I just wasted a huge opportunity cost for my investors.

Gene Tunny  10:08

Yeah, yeah, gotcha. And how does this tax receivable agreement? come about? Then? And also, I mean, okay, so I guess maybe I need to go back a bit. What’s generating this, this tax refund primarily? What is it that that is generating these potential tax refunds that will be coming in the future and that you’re able to then you buy you effectively buy those tax refunds off the companies? So I guess I’m interested in what’s generating them, if there are any sort of commonalities. And also then how do you go about making that agreement? What’s the contract look like? Is it regulated? Or is there a standard form? Can you tell us a bit about that place? Andy?

Andy Lee  10:55

Yeah, absolutely. So the most common version of that is, whenever a company is going public, they enter into a specific tax transaction in the US transforming their business, from what we call a flow through, which is a partnership or an LLC becoming a C corporation, that transaction is known as the up seat transaction, that transaction enables the company to be a beneficiary of large tax assets that will become available to them over 50, typically 15 years. So that’s an incredibly valuable asset. As a result of entering to these transactions, they enter into the agreement, the agreement is relatively rote. It’s while it’s a cottage industry, much of it has been rinse and repeat it over 30 years has been around since the 1980s. And so something that as well Warren precedents, as well as presidential documents for them to follow. And so for us, these are ultimately ended up in the hands of what we call a natural holders. So in the private equity context, private equity firms have tenure fun lives. So they take a company public, and oftentimes, they sell down the equity within the 10 years that their funds allow for them. These, if you took a company public in your A these assets, then start a 15 year clock. So in your two to three, it will be your 11 for private equity fund, you’re looking to move on and sell these positions. And that’s where we stop at we’re a second during market liquidity provider for these

Gene Tunny  12:51

assets. Rod okay. And I mean, you talk about large tax assets. What if, if I understood your terminology correctly? What are you talking about? Are you talking about what is it is a depreciation or is it the things that Yeah, Okay, gotcha

Andy Lee  13:10

items that can be depreciated or amortised. So raw. What what what’s an item that depreciate a car? A building on land is not depreciable because like obviously land is the land. But things are amortised include things that aren’t intangible in nature. So customer relationships, among others, that might be available intellectual property, among others.

Gene Tunny  13:37

Gotcha. So this is a way for these companies to to get well to get to get cash to reinvest in their operations or to you know, for working capital, whatever. Can you explain what is it? What’s in it for them? Because I mean, they they sacrifice this, you know, the this tax, you know, this expense that they can use to reduce their, their tax liability in the future? They get the upfront cash, what is it? Is it is it out of desperation that they’re going into these agreements. So how

Andy Lee  14:11

I would make a slightly different connotation. Remember, I mentioned that the sellers are private equity firms, or investors among others. So at the time of the IPO, these assets are owned by the company. Remember, pre IPO, the Board of Directors got our fiduciary duty is to maximise value for pre IPO shareholders, the public markets, we as in the US have seen a massive move away from active to passive investors. active investors are very focused on understanding what intrinsic value are, and so they’re very focused on understanding the free cash flow capabilities and generation of a business. However, on the other side of the equation passive Investors are more algorithmic, algorithmic or systematic in nature and are focused on among other things, revenue, multiple growth rates, EBIT, da multiples, price earning, none of which really captured the value of tax assets, primarily because they’re less standardisation across things such as capital expenditure, and intensity of a business, working capital, cash taxes. And so as a result of not necessarily the attributes that they seek being captured by the evaluation metrics, these tax assets are ignored. And so private equity firms are saying, Look, this fundamentally improves the free cash flow generation of a business. If you’re not going to give us an incremental value, incremental value for it, we’re going to extract it for ourselves by entering into a tax receivable agreement. So the holders of these cash flows are more sort of private equity firms. As a result of the finite fund lives, we step into the breach to provide liquidity to.

Gene Tunny  16:12

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  16:17

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with adept economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice. We can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world. You can get in touch via our website, www dot adapt economics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  16:47

Now back to the show. What’s an example of a private equity firm as a Carlyle Group? Is that the sort of group you’re talking about, or KKR?

Andy Lee  16:57

Yeah, all of these massive mega funds all have trs, primarily because they had it for the investment manager themselves when they went public. And subsequent to that the principals realise the disconnect in how the the various markets private and public markets think about it differently. And if they’re extracting value from their portfolio companies, as private equity got more and more competitive?

Gene Tunny  17:25

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it’s, it’s interesting to me, it’s one of these, these niche types of investments. I mean, honestly, I hadn’t heard of them before. You know, actually, there’s not Nishioka. Well, tell me more. 

Andy Lee  17:42

Tax is the largest asset class in a world that no one’s ever heard of. It’s a very much part of the fabric of our society. Like there are so many avenues through which tax assets are expressed, and are monetized. In the US, we have the concept of tax credits, that are now that were historically transferable or monetizable. And now they have direct pay. I don’t know you’ve been to Europe, with your significant other, and may have gone shopping in that regard. In the in Europe, there is what they call it the value added tax for which is a foreign or you can get a refund at the airport. Yep, there’s a huge business, global blue, that’s currently owned by Silverlake, that generates hundreds of million dollars of EBIT da by running the VAT tax refund programme at the airport. Similar to the example I gave you on individual taxes, that in commercial business that basically says to travellers whenever to depart in the EU, hey Jean, instead of waiting to get a check to Australia for that 1000 euros will just give you $700 Today, and they earn a sweat relative to that. There are so many businesses like that, across that run the gamut. And the lack of understanding creates the opportunity because it is the single largest opportunity set that doesn’t have commercial elements to it. And intellectual capital that has been brought to bear. Why is that? primarily driven by the fact that tax professionals here at least here in the US, when people hear attacks, they literally run away all the plug your ears, that like that’s the last thing they ever want to talk about. Every year we have to file on April 15. People consider it like being worse than going to the dentist. So like it’s something that is a very misunderstood and underappreciated even though there’s clear value add that can be created an economics that can be derived from it. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  19:56

yeah, for sure that that example you gave is a very good one. And that’s really helped crystallise in my mind. And so you’re, you’re doing what they’re doing. But with, well, you can compare what you’re doing with what they’re doing, you’re doing it for big corporations or for the private equity companies that have invested in them, they want to get out, you come in, you provide some liquidity, and you take this stream of these, these benefits that they can get from reducing their taxable income so that they will pay you that benefit associated with that in the future. You’ll get it from you get it from the company itself, too. Can you tell us what the agreement like who’s the contract or the Yeah,

Andy Lee  20:42

the agreement is between the TRA holder, then the private equity firm, now parallaxes. And the company every year, yeah, post tax filing season, the company has obligated to deliver a notice to the holders, if they utilise the asset, and the calculation of the refund, at which point of time, they have to repatriate the refund to the holder of the TRA. And so for which every q4 is a little bit like Christmas, we a little bit of an early Christmas, where we started collecting payments for the underlying payment stream. Gotcha.

Gene Tunny  21:24

Okay, so with the example you gave of the business was a silver like the global blue that does the refunds, or they will pay you up front? The VAT or the VAT refund? And they there’s a there’s a discount applied? So they get a benefit they’re taking on? Suppose they’re probably taking on less risk if they’ve got receipts? How do you think about that risk? I mean, what risk is there from, from your point of view? And how do you manage that risk? Yeah,

Andy Lee  22:00

yeah, three primary forms of risk that we manifest. The first and foremost is credit risk. So in global blues example, the EU governments failing and choosing not to, or stepping them on the pavement. For us, it’s more, it’s entirely around is the business going to exist? To the point about do I believe that this is a durable franchise, and will be around in 15 years. And so I have to believe that the company is a going concern will be a going concern, profitable and will exist in earnest. And so that’s a big part of our underwrite. And our focus on these businesses, we’re not looking for a flash in the pan, were looking for long, durable franchises. One on credit risk. The second risk is you never lose your tax asset. Like in the same way, if you don’t go, you don’t use a global blue solution, you still are eligible for the refund for multiple years. So you can go, you can fly back to Australia, on your next trip to Europe, you can file your tax refund. And that has we can do it’s the exact same thing, tax assets never get lost. They’re merely deferred. And so that has the potential to impact our IRR, which is a time weighted measure. But obviously, it’s an extent we collect it, then it doesn’t hurt our total profit dollar or mo YC on the opportunity. The last aspect is around corporate tax rates. So think about a tax acid as being the derivative of two variables, one at the tax asset itself, the notional value of a tax asset, so think about a net operating loss of 100. Think about the tax rate being your price to let’s just say 25% 100 by 25 results in a $25 cash flow. To the extent that tax rates went down and to 20%, then the tax acids 100 by 20, or $20 to the extent and went up 100 by 40, then you get $40. And so relative to most other asset classes, we have an inverse relationship to the primarily because if tax rates went up, equities likely would see some form of a correction downwards. Conversely, on the way up, ever when tax rates went down, equities would likely rally. We have an inverse relationship to that. And so for many of our investors, they view it as a nice tail hedge relative to potential policy changes here in the US.

Gene Tunny  24:47

Gotcha. Okay. So you mentioned a term before MOC. So that is multiple on invested capital. So just clarify that. That makes sense. Right? So, yeah, just thought I’d ask you about that, that risk. Because, you know, whenever you’re swapping these, or you’re taking on these, or that the stream of benefits and you’re providing upfront money, that can be risky. And we saw what happened with Lex Greensville, from the green cell family, which is a dime in Brisbane and Queensland, which is south of Bundaberg, which is where the green cell family farm is. And, you know, he was he was doing great things, but then, you know, he got into got into trouble because he thought he found this, you know, this this thing, this part of the market that no one really was properly servicing before and was providing, you know, he was buying the invoices, I think, wasn’t he and then we’re providing that supply chain finance. And then, you know, it was all working until the pandemic and and companies started delaying payments, and then the whole thing fell over for him. So he was in. And that was a real shame. What happened there real, real, real shock. So yeah, I just just wanted to ask you about the risk, because I like I just wonder, is there a risk here that? Yeah, I just want to make sure you’re I mean, I’m sure you are, you’re crunching the numbers, you’re highly experienced in this in this industry?

Andy Lee  26:22

Yeah, I think for Greensville, I mean, Dale had on the asset side of the equation, to your point, there started to being deferrals or delays to the cash flows that they were receiving, there was a little bit of an asset liability mismatch, whereby they was the liabilities they borrowed heavily, and would deliver at an incredibly aggressive rate. And so that resulted in them being unable to fulfil their obligations on the liability side of the equation today. We have also achieved securitisation. Today, our book is unlevered as we have paid it off, but that is something that we are incredibly conscious about. And look, there’s always that under inherent tail risk. The point is like you should never have too much of a mismatch. And so inherently, it’s we’re always very concerned about not having too high of a leverage level that we will be unable. Should there be shortfalls in our expectations or under writings. Yeah, yeah.

Gene Tunny  27:30

Right might have a look at some of the, what you’ve got on your website. There are some interesting things here on your website here. So I’ll put a link to that in the show notes. So parallaxes capital is an alternative asset manager and as a market leader in monetizing tax receivable agreements. Okay, so I think I’ve got a much better understanding of what that’s all about. And the stats you’ve got on your website, I don’t know if these are still current, but it says 20 Plus tax receivable agreements, purchase so they’re, so they could be large companies like Shake Shack or whatever. REMAX you mentioned that you’ve got these tax receivable agreements from and then it’s $750 million of an discounted principal balance purchase? Could you explain a bit about what what that seven 50 million figure means? Please, Andy,

Andy Lee  28:25

absolutely. Remember the example that I gave you as to the value of a tax asset such as a net operating loss multiplied by a tax rate of a 25%. We own across our portfolio $750 million of cash effective tax assets. So if you want to understand what our notional number is, you do that 750 divided by a 25% tax rate. And you would end up with like $3 billion of notional. So 30 million is what our portfolio over the next 15 years will deliver back to us should deliver back to us. Rod,

Gene Tunny  29:06

okay. And do you provide any indication of what the potential rate of return to investors is?

Andy Lee  29:14

on a net basis? We deliver call it a 15% return. Ron, okay.

Gene Tunny  29:21

Gotcha. And, Ron, so that’s obviously going to compare favourably to to more traditional asset classes, but of course, you know, risk associated with that, and nothing we’re saying here is we’re not I’m not offering any financial or investment advice, of course. Right. And who’s investing in your funds? Andy? So you’re in New York City, I believe. Who who’s investing in your funds? Is it family offices? Is it is it investment, Marilee

Andy Lee  29:54

endowments and foundations as well as small pensions? Right and Oh, CIOs,

Gene Tunny  30:00

endowments, foundations and small, small pensions Did you say confirm

Andy Lee  30:05

as well as address or CIO firms?

Gene Tunny  30:09

Sorry, I’m not familiar with that acronym IC, sorry, what type of firms and

Andy Lee  30:14

outsource Chief Investment Officer firm. Think about smaller endowments may not have the sufficient scale to hire their own research teams to allocate capital. And so they aggregate capital into a larger firm, who then deploys money on their behalf in an outsource format. As a result of that bundling, they’re able to capture economies of scale as well as gain access to best in class managers,

Gene Tunny  30:46

broad Okay, without necessarily recommending, in particular, outsourced CIO, cio firms, you know, any examples of them? I’d be interested in following up on those I can’t say I’ve really come across many of them. There

Andy Lee  31:00

are some huge ones such as a partner’s capital. A Hamilton lane, a stepping stone. Yeah, a Cambridge associates. A RCEP.

Gene Tunny  31:15

Yeah, right. Now, it’s fascinating. I mean, one of the things that our previous guest on my show, David Bahnson, who’s with oh, gee, the name of his firm escapes me, but it’s quite a, he’s got quite a reasonable amount of funds under management. He’s over at over on the West Coast. I mean, one of the points that he makes on on his capital brief show is that the the capital markets in the US are just so deep. There’s just so much. So so much money, obviously, with so much talent and so much creativity and innovation. And, you know, this is what I’m learning today is what I’m seeing today. Is is part of that it’s part of that story. It’s it’s all it’s it’s really fascinating. Yeah, so yeah, thanks for thanks for all this. I’m sorry. So my questions might be, might be a bit bit basic, but I’ve, yeah, there’s

32:14

a lot. We’re all learning together.

Gene Tunny  32:16

Very good. Very good. There’s a lot I’m unfamiliar with in this in this space. So it’s really good. My final question and it relates to a book I’ve been listening to recently. It’s Tony Robbins, his new book, The Holy Grail of investing. I’ve been listening to it on Audible. I don’t know if you’ve come across it at all. But it’s, yeah. It’s very good. Because I mean, one thing about Tony Robbins is that he just knows all of these ultra successful ultra wealthy people and he’s able to pick their brains. So he’s talking to people like Ray Dalio and, and I think Paul Tudor Jones, I think was a client of Tony Robbins. But what he picked up from Ray Dalio is this idea of this holy grail of investing and he asked Ray Dalio for some advice and, and Ray Dalio is best advice to him was, what you’ve got to find is eight to 12, uncorrelated investments for your portfolio. So he’s talking about things that, yeah, they’re uncorrelated, so they’re not going to vary. You know, what’s the right way of thinking about this there? Because the returns are so I suppose unexpected or random relative to everything else, that if you get enough of them, then you should you can outperform the market. So even if the markets in a downturn, you can still be, you can still be doing okay. So I think that’s the that’s the basic idea. I probably haven’t explained that well enough to come back to that. But I think it’s an interesting concept. And, I mean, how do you see this your tax receivable agreements? How do you see them as part of a diversified portfolio or as part of trying to achieve this, this collection of uncorrelated investment assets that Ray Dalio would call the holy grail of investing? Do you have any thoughts on that?

Andy Lee  34:10

Yeah, absolutely. So like, look, there are so many different opportunities that are as a result of an inefficient and inefficiency, opaqueness of a market as well as size of markets that create incredible moats for one to be able to harvest what I might describe as alpha from it. And that alpha isn’t necessarily something that is academic in nature, is just driven by inefficiency. That can be an opportunities like what global blue does. They have a regulatory moat. Like, no one day Oh, there’s only one kiosk at any given airport. There’s only one way for you to get a refund unless you want to go Go home and send multiple stamps and mailing your refund, that inherently has have some exposure to obviously discretionary spending, among others, but you’re looking for opportunities where they’re just such inefficiencies and markets that you’re able to harness that operational alpha, um, that can be created as a result of sourcing. And so like, I think Elliott says, is incredibly well, that they seek to sweat their assets. What they do isn’t difficult. It’s just incredibly laborious. And so that’s what we try to do at parallaxes playing in non traded markets, ie there are no brokers. Unlike a, you can’t buy this on a Bloomberg or on your friendly broker, like those are things that that require you to go out and transact on a individual by individual basis. Is it hard to do? No. Is it something that many want to do? Also very much, that’s not something that many desire to do? The best and the brightest here in the US aren’t looking to make their living and become a master of universe and tax? That’s just not something that occurs? No,

Gene Tunny  36:14

no, certainly isn’t. I think it’s so fascinating. You mentioned I mean, alpha, so you’re going for that excess return, you’re talking about excess return relative to typical market returns. And then you mentioned Elliot, and I’m trying to remember the I don’t know, I can’t remember the name of the whole firm, but as Elliott, the is that the firm that buys distressed debt, and then Sue’s the countries that it’s that it’s bought the debt from

Andy Lee  36:41

most famous for Argentina. Yeah, gotcha. Or Argentina or seizing having seized a warship from Argentina. Rot.

Gene Tunny  36:48

Yeah. Wow. Okay, I’m gonna have to cover them in a future show. That’s fascinating stuff. Okay, Andy, that that’s been do

Andy Lee  36:57

something that many are unwilling to do. Yeah. How many investment firms are willing to confront a country and confiscate a warship?

Gene Tunny  37:08

Yeah, it’s, it’s bold. It’s certainly Absolutely. Right. Okay. And it has been terrific. I’ve learned, I’ve learned a lot. And yeah, so again, it’s an illustration of just those deep capital markets and just the level of, of ingenuity, the level of rigour that is being applied to finance Well, in the US and worldwide. So this is, this is terrific. Oh, finally, I should ask is this just is this mainly a, what you’re doing this? Is this mainly applies to the US, does it? Or do you see it happening in other countries

Andy Lee  37:50

that technology can occur all over the world? Um, that’s likely not something that I thought parallaxes can pursue. Primarily because tax is a very local domain of expertise. You’re not going to have a US tax preparer. help prepare your Australian taxes. They’re just not familiar. They’re barely familiar with Canadian bumper rules, or Mexican tequila taxes. They’re very much not familiar with Australian. It’s just a local domain of expertise. Gotcha.

Gene Tunny  38:20

Okay. Right, Andy, anything else before we wrap up?

Andy Lee  38:24

Nope. Thank you so much for taking the time. No worries, I

Gene Tunny  38:28

will put a link to parallaxes capital on your on the in the show notes. And yeah, refer them to to your material. So if you’re interested in you’re in the audience, and you want to learn more about tax receivable agreements, you can you can check out Andy’s website. Andy, you’re obviously one of the great authorities on this issue. So I would definitely refer people to us. So Andy Lee from parallaxes capital. Thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed the conversation. Take care and be well rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting outlets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

39:47

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this. To begin your own podcasting journey head on over to obsidian-productions.com

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Housing Crisis and Immigration: Australia’s Tough Choices w/ John August – EP236

This episode of Economics Explored features a deep dive into the ongoing housing crisis in Australia with John August, a Pirate Party of Australia official and Sydney radio host. Gene and John discuss the significant influence of immigration rates and building restrictions on housing availability and prices. They also consider potential policy solutions to ensure more equitable housing access, including developing a charter city named Turing. 

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: John August

John August is the Treasurer of the Pirate Party Australia. John does computer support work in retail and shareholder communication. He is passionate about justice and ethics in our world, particularly as it plays out in law generally and intellectual property in particular. He has stood on behalf of the Pirate Party in the Federal seat of Bennelong and also as a Councillor for Ryde City Council.

Along with technology and law John is also interested in spoken word and poetry. He broadcasts on community radio and hosts the program “Roving Spotlight” on Tuesdays from noon-2pm on Radio Skid Row Marrickville Sydney, and writes about his ideas on the website www.johnaugust.com.au. You can keep up to date with what John is up to via his Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100063805005395

What’s covered in EP236

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • Housing crisis in Australia, with focus on supply and demand issues, affordability, and government policies. (2:44)
  • Population growth, immigration, infrastructure, and housing affordability in Australia. (8:04)
  • Housing affordability and land value taxation. (13:40)
  • A Georgist approach to taxing land. (22:05)
  • Immigration and foreign aid in Australia. (31:24)
  • Reducing immigration and addressing housing challenges in Australia. (37:46)
  • Immigration policy, infrastructure, and zoning regulations in Australia. (41:45)
  • Potential for charter cities (e.g. Turing) and high-speed rail links. (47:34)
  • Foreign aid, shipping, and taxation. (53:35)

Takeaways

  1. The housing crisis in Australia is exacerbated by high immigration levels and stringent building restrictions, which together affect affordability.
  2. Policy debates are intensifying around whether to restrict immigration to ease housing demand or to relax zoning restrictions on development to boost supply.
  3. The concept of “upzoning,” similar to Auckland’s approach, could be a viable solution to create more housing in existing urban areas.
  4. Proponents of high immigration levels often overlook the infrastructural and social costs associated with a rapidly increasing population through high immigration rates.
  5. The discussion around housing is not just about economic metrics but also about the quality of life and housing accessibility for all population segments.

Links relevant to the conversation

Lumo Coffee promotion

Lumo Coffee Discount: Visit Lumo Coffee (lumocoffee.com) and use code EXPLORED20 for a 20% discount until April 30, 2024.

Transcript: Housing Crisis and Immigration: Australia’s Tough Choices w/ John August – EP236

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

John August  00:04

I try to be careful with my language I try to be descriptive but not provocative or sensationalist. You know. It’s a hard thing to be disciplined and do that because I know how tempting it is to just say something outrageous and think, oh, this will attract some attention.

Gene Tunny  00:28

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, and welcome to the show. In this episode, I catch up with John August, a Sydney radio host and Pirate Party of Australia official. We dive into the topic of Australia’s housing crisis and we explore the impacts of immigration and building restrictions on the situation. I’d love to hear your thoughts on our discussion today. Do you think we need to restrict our immigration levels to improve housing affordability? What about the situation in your own country? If you’re outside of Australia, let me know. And how about up zoning to have more development in low density residential areas similar to what they’ve done in Auckland in New Zealand. And what do you think about the cheering chatter city idea? Let me know. My contact details are in the show notes. Also, please don’t hesitate to reach out with any ideas or suggestions you may have on how we can improve the show. our episode today is sponsored by Lumo coffee, or seriously healthy organic coffee with three times a healthy antioxidants of regular coffee. WeMo coffee is offering a 20% discount on economics explore listeners until APR 3020 24. Be sure to check out the show notes for more details. Without further ado, let’s dive into the episode. John Auguste Welcome back on the programme.

John August  02:10

Yes, thanks, Jane. It’s good to be back. I got a lot of interesting things on your podcast. And I guess it’s lovely to be back. And I hope you’re interviewing lots of other people the second time or third time as well, I suppose that’s

Gene Tunny  02:21

yes, yes. You’re my, this is your fifth time on the show. I think I had Dan Mitchell on the last week. And I mean, Dan must be up to about four or five. So yes, yes. But it is good to have you back on the show. We keep in touch and you’re always providing good feedback. And you’ve got, you know, really informed and interesting positions on different issues. So I always enjoy chatting with you. And one of the things I wanted to talk to you about today is this issue of this housing crisis that we are having here in Australia where we’ve got rental vacancy rates of around 1%. Whereas normally they’re about two to 3%. We’ve got we’ve got people, you know more people homeless, who are people living in tents up on Wickham terrace near where I live in Brisbane. It’s it’s absolutely diabolical. And there’s a big debate about immigration, to what extent is immigration causing and to what extent is it being caused by building restrictions? So there’s a there’s a big policy debate going on at the moment. So to start with, John, I wanted to get a sense from you. How are you? We’re seeing this current housing crisis. Do you see it as a as a crisis? And what are your thoughts on what’s driving it? Okay,

John August  03:45

well, goodness me, I think the word crisis is so much abused. I don’t think we’ve not had a housing crisis for the last, you know, one or two decades, but it’s fair to say things are getting worse. And look, I’m sympathetic to the people whose position is suddenly so dire. But you know, I’m reminded of the old statement that a recession is when someone else loses their job, and depression is when you lose your job. And like, it does seem to me that for a lot of people, you know, housing affordability has been an issue for decades, but people nod shrug and go, Oh, yeah, well, I guess these things happen. But then suddenly, when their children are having difficulty getting into the housing market and getting a property of their own, then suddenly people start to say, oh, my gosh, this is a problem. And, you know, what’s been said is that there’s a decent number of people who do own property want to maintain their values, and they’re the people who were swinging the vote at the moment. But there are what you might call real supply issues at the moment that are real and tangible. But then there’s supply issues which are a smoke and mirrors Shall we say, they’re a distraction, they’re a sideshow. They’re they’re an excuse for vested interest to peddle their, their interest. So let me try to explain that. But we do have supply chain issues with the builders. And there’s also a lot of builders who are in precarious positions. And I do believe that’s credible, they’re in precarious positions, their margins are tight, the cost of their inputs is rising, and they are actually struggling to build stuff that people want to have built. And that is certainly an issue just at the moment, we’ve got to say, this is a, you know, there were COVID Supply Chain disruptions, and it’s continuing. And I don’t know why. But it seems that so many construction businesses, you know, on on dire financial ground, you know, just just one or two notches away from bankruptcy. And that does seem to be a real thing. And I think that’s really only raised the tent over the last few years. And that is real, and that is substantial. But the other side of it is that there are supply issues, which I think are artificial, or a smokescreen. Now, Dr. Cameron Murray, that you’ve sometimes interviewed, now, he, he’s actually saying that there’s an absorption rate. So, you know, you can only build so much. And he’s also saying that developers are going to sort of drip feed property. And you know, they basically winch to government and say that there should be land releases. And then when they make a report to shareholders, they talk about all the land assets and say, you know, this is an asset that we are coveting and maintaining. So there is this whole story of land banking, there’s a story of people having properties which are held unoccupied. Now, I think it’s the PROSPER people in Melbourne, they did the sort of surveys were people running around with bicycles paying attention to property, lots that weren’t didn’t have buildings on them, they were looking at the water consumption of units and saying, Look, how many of these things are unoccupied. You’ve probably heard the one about the ratio of median value property compared to median income has gotten a lot worse over the decades. And that’s certainly true. And that what why that’s happened is basically my assertion, it’s sort of developed by some people in the Pirate Party like Mark Evans, he’s sort of saying, like, look, we made changes to taxes, there was a time when we introduced the capital gains tax discount, and property prices double. And then that fed in with lower interest rates. And that sort of basically pumped up the prices a lot more. Because on the one hand, we do have that statistic of median price of accommodation compared to median income. But over that time, interest rates have gone down. So like, what you have to look at, is not now what that number, I think, is scary, I think it’s bad, and it’s scary. But from the point of view of someone paying off their mortgage, their mortgage is going to be a certain amount on the Capitol and a certain amount on the interest. And if the interest is lower, then you can actually bid up the price of the property. And you know, as interest rates go down, the values of properties are going to go up just because you’re able to bid in that way. And so I would say it’s comparatively low interest rates, it’s sort of tax schemes, that sort of mean people, you know, it’s a good idea to invest in property. And of course, you know, I know people who will say, No, say that you’re investing as property is a bit of a misnomer, really, investment is building a new factory, to some degree, maybe even building okay, maybe even building a new apartment block, that’s maybe investment because it’s actually changing the economy. But if all you’re doing is changing ownership, that’s, that’s not really investment in a deeper sense. And I do feel that there’s this incentive towards building stuff, but not actually to letting it out. Because, you know, the PROSPER report has been that there are a lot of vacant properties. There are a lot of people doing land banking. So I think that it’s a specious argument that, oh, we just need more land releases when there’s so much land that’s held out of use as a result of the decision by the people who own that property. Now, so there’s lots of narratives here. Now, one of the things I’ve said is this thing about, you know, the capital gains tax discount the low interest rates, but going back further, you’ve had Menzies who sort of I think he’s sort of changed things so that land or land ownership was a lot more attractive. And I mean, I’ve heard narratives that there was a crash in the 1890s. And that really only recovered, I think, you know, when Menzies came in, and when there was also a deal of immigration. So that if you look at the the one gross picture is that sure immigration did actually push up the property values as well. So I would also say that if you listen to some of our overseas commentators, and they talk about, you know, the Asian economic miracle or the Irish economic miracle, then they might talk about the Australian economic miracle. And they say that our economic miracle is based on population growth, and in construction, and I’m sure that like mining and farming, and then maybe a little bit of niche manufacturing do not hurt along the way. But that’s a story that is told. And so I do think that population is a part of the picture. But before you think that I’m sort of trying to say we shouldn’t look out for your refugees, or we shouldn’t do our bit. As far as the globe is concerned, I think if we actually increased our foreign aid 2.7% of GDP, we could at least say, Look, we are being a decent global citizen who are trying to do good in the world. But when you have people coming into our country, and putting load on the infrastructure, you know, that is going to cause its own problems. Now, unfortunately, that that’s hard for me to give you now hard references to all of these things. But yeah, there is a view that like if you do more than 2% of maintenance, and new construction of infrastructure, you end up tripping over your shoelaces, there’s just so many roads being dug up so much disruption to what’s going on. So and then the other story is that retrofitting infrastructure into a city isn’t easy. I mean, you know, we had one harbour crossing in Sydney, and then we had another harbour crossing, and certainly in the Sydney CBD, you can’t really plug more lanes into, into our CBD without ripping down buildings. And it’s like a hideously difficult task. So and I know, Dr. Kendra Murray, again, you’ve had him as a guest, he has actually put a report on the immigration population growth. And he’s also saying, Look, you know, in for infrastructure, it’s hard to sort of retrofit infrastructure down the track. So we’ve got now, how does this relate to housing? Okay, I acknowledge that there’s all these different parts of the picture that I’m ringing to bear. But you know, what, one of the things we can say is, look, the level of immigration certainly isn’t making life easy as far as making housing affordable. But I’m also trying to say, look, we can, as a nation, be gracious, pump up our foreign a 2.7% of GDP. And at least, the cost of being a good Global Citizen, falls moderately fairly on all of this, through the taxation system, we’re not suffering because of our infrastructure catch up, or various other things. Now, at least it’s contained, there is the text, some of its going to GDP. But the other thing is, I think refugees are about five or 10% over intake and people so we could actually double our refugees and have our immigration input. And, you know, this is a matter of such detailed debate that you know, all the skilled people coming in now, is there really a shortage? Or is this basically business not being willing to pay the going market rate, and not being willing to train people? Now, one of the bizarre things is, I think, on the list of scarce professions is actually shifts. Now, they do actually say, Look, this is not fast food workers at your local supermarket, but more chefs working in our refills or any actual restaurants. Now I have to say, look, if the Hilton wants to import another high end shift from like, France or something Well, fair enough, that’s understandable. But when you’re saying there’s a sort of shift to work in establishments, like the RSL, or whatever, you start to think, hang on, there’s something wrong with this picture. You could say that what what’s going on here is that businesses are benefiting from cheaper labour, and the rest of us are paying for it in terms of the infrastructure difficulties that we have, and the difficulties with the housing market. But but you know, there’s so many threads to this narrative, because, you know, people will talk about capital gains tax negative gearing, this sort of thing. But you have actually had property booms in Japan in the US, and they haven’t had those systems there. And they’ve still had issues with his property. So my more general thing is like, you’ve got some issues. They’re different in each country, but they do actually add up to making things unaffordable. And so. So my story is that, you know, you’ve probably heard me say it before that we do want to have land value taxation. We do want to sort of limit our immigration. And we do want to have a policy where we are actively catching up on infrastructure and doing a bit better job of running our cities, rather than just basically having all these different things because there’s so much development, and they say, oh, we’ll make some Got a charge on the development. And that’s how we’ll get our our infrastructure. But, you know, we’re not in a sense, we’re not paying for our infrastructure properly. And that’s causing problems. And we’re basically letting people pump up their property values, and not getting any of that. And I think that’s sort of making the economy unbalanced, and that sort of a georgeous picture. But, you know, one of the things about the affordability of housing is, as I said before, it’s not just ratio of median income to median price, it’s the interest rates, and then there’s how much of your weekly income, are you actually paying any interest plus capital payments, and my suspicion is, our loans are getting longer in duration. But people who can afford a loan are still, you know, they’re struggling, but they’re paying them off because the interest is lower. And there’s this bigger picture, which also includes interest rates. And that’s basically prices have been beat up because people can pay them. But I think it would be better if rather than these payments going into increase property values that actually went to the government in terms of land value taxation, as far as a lot of people are concerned, they’re still paying the same amount of money, but at least that money is going into helping the government afford infrastructure, rather than the pockets of people who are watching their property values escalate. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  16:22

yeah. Okay. John has been there’s a lot there. And I think what you’ve, what you’ve done is I mean, you’ve highlighted just all of the relevant factors here in this supply factors as demand side factors, and they’re both going to be relevant in determining the the market outcomes that we see. So I think that’s, that’s fair enough. There are a few things I want to pick up on and, and talk about. But first, can you remind us about the whole Georgist movement, please? And what land what you mean by land value taxation, and what you see as the benefits of that, please? Okay,

John August  16:59

well, this is something where we are distinguishing, I guess, real investment from speculation. And let’s say, Look, if first off, building large blocks or units is a bit controversial, some people say that there’s all these horrible limiting regulations. But then other people say, the council has this limitation. And then the developer wants to have the council break their limits, and basically have extra floor space or extra floors or extra floor space ratio. And they say, Look, if you break your rules, we’ll give you this extra wad of money. And, and then if the council refuses, they take it to the land and Environment Court. So there’s this whole dodgy picture around development. But let me try to say that, obviously, if if a block of units is welcome, and the locals are getting pissed off, you know, you can actually say, look, you’re increasing the density of, of habitation. And that is actually investment and improving things equally, building a new factory, or doing various things that’s investment. But other thing is just transfer of ownership and speculation. And the other side of speculation is you own property, and the value goes up because of the efforts of somebody else, then you have a benefit that you haven’t actually worked for. So this is making a distinction between what you might call genuine economic worth, which is like opening a new factory, getting it started employing things running the production line, things are actually happening, you have brought stuff together, you’ve invested, you’ve actually done something, those workers are actually doing something on a day to day basis. And that’s, you know, in the Georgia’s framework that is real economic activity, but putting your money in something and then just watching it grow in value, that is, I guess, less morally worthwhile than than actual investment. So that’s one part of the story. But the thing is, if you grab some property, and while other people do stuff that grows in value, you haven’t actually done anything. Now developers will say, Aha, it’s a strategic choice we develop here. We are helping the economy go. You know, I guess I do sort of, for the most part, challenge that. But let me try to tell a bit of a story that sort of encapsulate some of what’s going on in the Georgia’s picture. Let’s say that you have a property. And I don’t know that the council builds a garbage dump next to it. And you all then complain and try to get compensation for the fact that there’s a garbage dump there and say, oh, you know, you’ve reduced my property value. But let’s imagine that you build your property, and then about a kilometre away. Either someone builds a shopping centre or somewhere or the government builds a railway line and puts a railway station there. And both of those things increase the value of your property. By now, while in the first case, you went on to the council complaining look, you have reduced my property value. And now with the case of the shopping centre, that’s a bit more murky, because you know, the private end industry isn’t doing it. But in the case of the case of the railway station, while you will see a queue of people at the council complaining about the fact that they garbage dump nobody and accuse up at the government saying oh, my gosh, you’ve increased the value of my property, I feel so guilty that you’ve done this, and this is a bonus. And look, here’s your share, I know you’re taxing me. But here’s a bit of extra money, because of what you’ve done for my property. Right, notice the asymmetry there. So what GA is the same in a lot of cases, people just own property, what’s the value grow, and they’re not actually doing anything. So because they’re not doing anything, really, the public is entitled to that. And so now we get into the thing of like, does the government represent the title, the people doesn’t represent the state, but let’s just say the best approximation is to say, let’s let the government claim some of that, like I was imagining that person doing voluntarily. And notice, you do actually have, I think, some situations where when when people do do infrastructure, they’re trying to charge businesses, but that’s sort of an ad hoc thing. It’s not really, you know, full on land value taxation that’s uniform, and trying to capture this on an ongoing basis. And also, vacant property is no invite and mill Melbourne, they were trying to put on a vacant property tax, because one of the things that people are noticing is, all these people, either land banking, or having units that they’re holding out of us. Look, if you really want to do that, really, you should be paying for the privilege, I suppose. And in France, my understanding is, if you have one property, that’s cool. But if you have two properties, your second property is taxed as though you’re renting it. So you’d better well be renting it because if you’re not, you’re really paying paying through the nose for that privilege. And I suppose the thing about a lot of things in France is you can have one of anything. That’s the sentiment. But once you have more than that, see things change. And I think that’s a lot of the way that that that is constructed. Now, the whole Frank system. But what about but to try to summarise the Georgia sentiment is that rather than imagining developers and speculators and people who are who are making Gamble’s that pay off both them and society, it’s saying look compared to actual economic activity, people who just own property and watch it grow in value without actually contributing to that to themselves where that what’s its other people’s or the government’s actions that are contributing to that, really, that’s not a fair and equitable earning, that money really should be going to the government. And the other thing is, there’s all these theories of taxation and deadweight loss and, and distortions and so on. And I have Okay, I have to admit, I don’t have the arguments on my fingertips. But my understanding is that there are a lot of economists who will say, land value taxes are the least distortionary taxes in an economic sense. Now, certainly people who own properties, and also particularly pensioners who, I guess, you know, facing an uncertain future, obviously, they will be concerned about paying taxes on their land. But even in New South Wales, I think the government was looking at giving people the option of swapping from the stamp duty to land by your taxation, and it would be sort of a more a better thing for them. And I know the year the then a liberal state government was looking at going in that direction. And I was actually making tweets saying good on them. And then there was a thing that they were sort of chucking rocks. And I mean, this sort of approach has been used in the AC T for a very long time. But the other thing is, Jean, I’m surprised that in all your meandering through the the world of activism or intellectual circles or whatever, you’ve never met, Axe grinding georgeous, because where I come from here a dime a dozen, but anyway, nonetheless.

Gene Tunny  23:54

Right? No, not Not really. But you know, I’ve heard the arguments over the years. And you’re right. I mean, the argument is that well, because land can’t move, right. There’s a tax on land is, if it’s the if it’s on that on the rent, so to speak, the that unearned increment, then it’s going to be non distortionary. So that certainly is the argument and and then you’re talking about their proposals to tax vacant, vacant properties, etc. And that French, that French tax measure that are their policy? That sounds interesting, I’ll have to look at that. And so do you see that this is a way this is? I mean, it’s obviously it’s not going to solve the whole problem. But do you see measures such as this part of the way that you can address the housing affordability problem?

John August  24:55

Yeah, I would say there are short term and long term issues. Notice, okay, just briefly going on a diversion. I mean, these fine companies are struggling, I mean, you know, a nice thing to do would be to have a government fund where they can make special loans to sort of keep a given government given business afloat. And look, you still want to look at the business and say, Look, if we give you some help, is there’s this rough patch that you will get through, and then you’ll come out the other end, and have the same some confidence in that. So sort of a bit of an easier way to get a loan than a regular bank, but you still want to keep a little bit of a sense of, you know, these are things that are going on. And as far as supply chain issues, look, I just hope that construction methods will get a bit innovative over the next next half year or year. And they’ll work out ways of getting around the shortages that they have. I mean, you know, there’s all these ideas for like 3d printing of this, that and the other and sort of hempcrete. And, I mean, there’s there’s a lot of avenues that people could actually go down to try to try to address these issues. But okay, that’s sort of your short term thing. And certainly, Georgia’s reforms would be a part of it, because the government at least would have more of a chance to catch up on infrastructure, and there’d be less of this upward pressure on on properties. Now, one of the things is, I think, you know, there’s some economists have identified that, you know, it’s like, very difficult to think of a certain number of voters want to maintain their asset values, and the other people who don’t yet own property, want those asset values to not not at least not rise up as much as they have been. So you’ve got this fundamental political dilemma that this is going away from economics, and my gosh, it’s all propaganda going around, but it wouldn’t surprise me if like the trucks have come home to roost, and things over the next five years will go really topsy turvy politically, as so many people who wanted to get property have been sort of frozen out of it by circumstances, and they’re, they’re looking for answers. And, you know, oh, gosh, you know, maybe that will happen. I see so many people who are a lot more confident than me, and they’re, I guess, your political propagandists. But let’s say I wouldn’t, it wouldn’t surprise me if that happened. But what I guess I’m trying to get is, paradoxically, if you tax property in a more effective way, the whole economy goes into a bit more balanced, and you actually have more property available to live in. And you have better infrastructure in the city. And I know, it’s a bit paradoxical. But now my assertion is, if you tax land properly in the right way, then that will help to rebalance the economy to the point where things become more, more, more affordable. And the other side of things is that, you know, it’s sad thing is, I don’t know what the problem is, I don’t know how to fix it. But it does feel like investment in the real economy to actually do stuff is just so boring as complete or so tiresome as compared to investing in property. In a sense, investing in property shouldn’t be something that happens over there in the corner, just to keep people in accommodation, it shouldn’t be a dominant thing in the economy. When people think of investing, they should be thinking and investing in, in real actual economic activity. And, you know, that’s part of the thing is that our economy is out of balance in that way. But yes, I’m going off on a mountain of a bit of a tangent, I know, population is part of the issue. But I know cam was actually saying, Look, we had this whole COVID thing with a lack of immigration, and the property market was still still moving ahead. Now, one of the things to keep in mind, that was actually the top end of the market, where I guess people were still shuffling their, their money around. And my understanding is it didn’t happen at the bottom end. I think cam has his own explanations, but I tend to think that it’s the bottom end of the market, where people are competing with the immigrants. So So part of the thing would be to actually control our rate and immigration gets get serious about the catch up on infrastructure. But we could also move towards, you know, point 7% GDP on foreign aid, and perhaps even doubling our refugee intake just to show Look, we’re not being narky, about this humanitarian thing, we’re just trying to manage infrastructure and manage what’s going on in our economy. But I would also say there’s all this tooing and froing, politically, and I would say, Look, we do want to manage our flow of people into the country, but it’s not going to be a magic one that fixes the problem. And we know that because when there was COVID, and we had a serious lack of people coming into into Australia, it didn’t really change things that much though, there is that particular example of Victoria and Melbourne, where I guess there’s a very interesting outcome. They’re sort of saying, hang on, you give a whole bunch of supply and it doesn’t really improve affordability. that much. So, you know, there’s something deeper going on there?

Gene Tunny  30:02

Well, yeah, on the Georgia State proposal, I think I’m gonna have to come back to that, because it’s an interesting idea. And there are economists who are who have looked at it and Henry George was is obviously, he made some, you know, an important contribution to to economics or political economy, as it was called then

John August  30:21

we we in Australia have actually pursued Georgist ideas to some degree, and also the fact that our council rates are actually based on the unimproved value of the land. My understanding is that people were thinking of Georgia’s principles, when they actually figured out look, how are we going to implement this whole rates thing? But you could equally argue that that while our rates are related to our property values, it’s not it’s not trying to grab the our unearned income. It’s more this is how we’re going to pay for the libraries and the roads and the rubbish and the this and that. And we’re just going to sort of tax it proportionately in this way. But it’s not actually trying to grab that value. Yeah, it’s but anyway, so there’s a few things going on there. And yeah, I mean, let’s say, look, it’s not going to be a magic wand. It’s not a single solution. But by golly, I reckon it would help to sort of turn our economy around to a way that’s basically fairer overall. And I do embrace that part of the Georgia’s narrative.

Gene Tunny  31:24

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  31:30

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with adept economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice, we can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world, you can get in touch via our website, www dot adapt economics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  31:59

Now back to the show. John, I want to go talk about the migration numbers. Again, I think you did make a good point. And this is not necessarily endorsing what you’re saying. But you’re saying you could actually double the number of refugees. And that’s not that doesn’t necessarily mean you’re going to Well, you could actually reduce the title migration numbers, but double categories or increased categories that we think are good for Australia or that were that we that we value or the community would like to see more migration in those categories, rather than, say foreign students who seem to be making the bulk up the bulk of the immigration title at the moment?

John August  32:43

Well, certainly, I mean, please, I, I hope I’m not not having a go at foreign students. But you know, there is the thing that where you have a university with lots of foreign students, it does rather disrupt the property market in the proximity of the university. And I think that is the experience. And that’s why I was saying that if our GDP is it points out wherever foreign aid is point 7% of GDP, at least the burden of that ethical, ethical decision falls moderately evenly on all taxpayers, which I think is fairer than the current situation. But But yes, yeah, that the thing is like, immigration is a few things like one of them is refugees, where we basically say, look, it’s a rough world, we’re going to give some people refuge from those difficulties. Okay, fair enough, then you’ve got, you know, basically businesses claiming that there is a shortage. And I think we can look at that a bit more carefully and say, Look, this is a different definitional issue. Look, maybe business is actually short on on particular forms of employees. And that means we when we go to the shopping centre, pay a bit and pay a bit more for something. Well, in a sense, so what you might say, this is a consequence of how we run the country. And that’s the outcome there. And then you have, I guess, sort of family reunions. And you know, it, I suppose, in a sense, it would be lovely if our world were free of conflict, and everything was sort of reasonably on an even keel. And people could just move around as they see fit and come to Australia, because they thought it was a nice place to move to, but I suppose, you know, I don’t think we can do that. And one of the other things is that when we’re talking about foreign aid, now, if we actually have, let’s say, people, doctors, nurses, whatever coming from less well off countries to us, and we’re not paying for the training costs, then in a virtual sense, the cost of that training should be subtracted from our foreign aid. So we have our actual foreign aid number, and then we subtract from that the cost of training people that we have gotten from countries less well off from ourselves, and then we actually end up with our our actual corrected foreign aid number. And, you know, I’m not the only person living in a country observation. So, you know, this is one of the things where, look, you do want to be a part of the world, you want to be compassionate, you want to do your bit. But obviously, you want to do it in a way where you’re managing your own situation, your own economy. And I think that we can, you know, ethically sort of look at controlling our immigration numbers. And as I say, look, there’s people who’ve told this story that no, there was a crash in the 1890s. And the property values really only went up, you know, with Menzies and immigration and so on. And that’s when you notice that first sort of lift from that doldrums coming out of the 1890s. So there’s certainly some interesting stories there. And yeah, it’s hard for me to hit you with a whole bunch of figures to actually prove these assertions, but I can say I’m doing my best.

Gene Tunny  35:48

Yeah, no, I think I think you’re telling the broad story correctly. As far as I can tell. Now, I’m interested in your thoughts on foreign aid. I mean, you’re talking about more than you’re talking about tripling, like three axes. Now, foreign aid, aren’t you? Because at the moment, if I had a look on the parliamentary website, it says our official do So Australia’s ODA, so our official development assistance, as a proportion of GNI, it’s expected to remain at the 2021 22 level of 0.2%. So that’s for 2223. And you’re talking about 0.7%. Now, we see the average is point three 2%. What

John August  36:33

well, point 7%? Is my understanding that that is the UN recommended level. And obviously you you kind of wonder like, is the UN rational? Are they this Are they this, but sometimes, an international body has the objectivity that you would like. So that’s sort of why I’m thinking about point 7%, at least something to aspire to. Or if we could be reaching towards point 7% and do better than any other nation on the planet. Then if we were limiting immigration, or doing various other things, we could say, well look at our foreign aid. Now, keep in mind, you got to be careful that your foreign aid is not just a hidden subsidy for construction companies to build stuff that these third world countries don’t actually need or can use. There are some subtleties there. And look, notice, tell you the reason why I brought up foreign aid is in the shadow of immigration and controlling immigration and saying, look, there’s refugees, there’s immigration, how do we demonstrate that we are doing our bit as a global citizen to make the world a better place? And it’s in that shadow that I’m talking about foreign aid? So you know, it hasn’t it hasn’t been totally out of left field? It’s sort of sort of the trend. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  37:46

Okay. And, and I think your point about how you can actually, like we could, we could massively lower or substantially lower the number of the amount of immigration because we had 550,000. Net overseas migration, that’s the figure for the last 12 months, if I’ve got that, right. And, I mean, that’s just extraordinary. Yep. So, record, this is from Leith van Sullens, one of his latest pieces, elbow lies his way out of rental crisis. I love her. I love all their titles. Well, I

John August  38:21

try to be careful with my language. I tried to be descriptive, but not provocative or sensationalist? You know. It’s a hard thing to be disciplined and do that, because I know how tempting it is to just say something outrageous and think, oh, this will attract some attention.

Gene Tunny  38:42

Yeah, but I mean, I quite I mean, I’ve been following them. And I think this, I think their time has come. So for a long time they’ve been, you know, running these lines, and they have the public hasn’t really been receptive to it, or they have it hasn’t been a popular position. But now I think, given the challenges that we’re facing in housing, given this, the absorption problem that it seems that we’re, we’re facing, I think they’re getting a lot more the reception to their line is is is it’s a lot better,

John August  39:14

as well. Well. Keep in mind, I think I’ve already said this, that I do not believe that, you know, just reducing immigration is going to be a magic one. We have to, in some sense, aggressively pay catch up on our infrastructure. And another thing I’ll point out is, I don’t know what it’s like in Brisbane, but certainly in Sydney, you’ve got the issue where you’ve got the rich suburbs, and the people who are like the nurses, the fire is the police officers, the people doing cleaning the people doing whatever, can’t afford to live there. So they’ve got to basically travel all the wire across Sydney, and they’re putting a needless load on the road network that doesn’t really need to be there. And for the rest of us that are not in that situation. We’re obviously coping with congested roads. So you You know, for me, that’s a side effect of that sort of asymmetric wealth distribution. And one of the things that may be happening in in Brisbane, I know some councils in Sydney, are looking at getting into public housing, not in a grand sweeping way. But key worker accommodation. This is a, this is accommodation that will be there for the police officers and their families, for the nurses and their families, for the firefighters and their families, and perhaps for the cleaners in their families that are actually servicing that area. And, you know, you’ll basically have to say, look, either I have a job, or I will be getting a job in the area. And I mean, one of these professions, so the council will then give you some subsidised the place to live. And, you know, that’s interesting that councils are even contemplating doing that. I mean, I mean, I guess this is, this is sort of a, I guess it’s a bit of an issue around infrastructure and housing, I guess, a few steps from, from your original question, but nevermind can’t help myself. I’m

Gene Tunny  40:58

going to understand the logic of it. So I’ve seen that in, in rural towns in particular, so you’ve got a visited a potato processing facility in one of the Riverina towns, and they actually own some houses in the local town, so that they’ve got places for the, I think, you know, the migrant workers who come into work at their processing facility, so they’ve got somewhere to live when they’re, when they’re in the area. So I can see the logic of that, and why it might make sense for some councils to look at that awesome. Well,

John August  41:34

I know that, you know, just travelling around country towns, it’s interesting, when there’s some sort of development and all the tradies have taken all the motels or, or there’s some sort of running festival or something like that. Yeah. By golly, you know, you notice that when you when you go to a country town thinking, Oh, this is a quiet, sleepy country town, there’ll be lots of vacancies at the motel and Well, anyway,

Gene Tunny  41:58

that’s very true. Okay, I want to go back to those numbers. So migration programme, so they’re in the permanent migration programme. So remember, I talked about how our net migration has been running at about 550,000. Okay, the permanent migration programme, which is what you’re talking about, which is refugees, or the family reunions, and skilled migration that’s set at 190,000 places. So that’s just a fraction of the total net overseas migration and a big part of it are our students over foreign students coming to universities, and also, the students who stay on they get an extension, so they do a degree, and then they stay here for a couple of years after that. And you know, some of them will have work rights, and they’ll be they’ll be in our labour for so I’ll and you know, a lot of it is that and so we’ve got this big temporary migration number. So I’ll put a link to leiths post in the show notes, because I think it’s a nice summary of all of the relevant data. We’ve got around 700,000 student visa holders in Australia, but in terms of temporary visa holders, so that could be students, their families, people who are who did a degree and then they’re still staying here. That’s at 2.2 to 2.4 million people. So depending on whether you use the city as a quarterly, seasonally adjusted number, that’s about 2.3 million it looks like and I’ll put that in the show notes. So is that

John August  43:33

that at the moment, or per quarter or per year? Or what are we what are we saying here? Yeah, that’d

Gene Tunny  43:38

be at the moment. So that’d be the stock of them. Yeah. stock at a point in time. Yeah. Yeah. And so we’re well above where we were at COVID. And you could argue that we’ve actually, you know, some of the people will say, I actually it’s just catch up and we’re just on the same trajectory. Okay. Maybe so, and this is something that Leif addresses here. And his his point is that well, okay, this this argument, the the refers to a tweet from Bill, is it a bill Rizvi, who was a former immigration bureaucrat, where he was saying, Our look, we’re just we’re actually where we would have been if we’re on the same trajectory pre pandemic and then so Leith goes recipes arguments ridiculous because the pandemic completely constipated the supply side of the housing market by sending material costs through the roof sending builders boss so you’re talking about this before John, and reducing building capacity by months of lock downs, deliberately engineering a record immigration rebound into a supply restricted market was the height of idiocy and is why we are suffering from the worst rental crisis and living memory

John August  44:46

led to a well articulated position, I suppose I’d have to think about it much more carefully to say look, is it right or is it wrong, but it sounds very reasonable on the face of it, you know, pretty prima facie is the legal people would say and but my broad position would be, look, we were playing catch up on infrastructure before, if we’re actually going to get some breathing space, we’ve got to have a commitment to catch up on infrastructure at the same time as we limit immigration. So we can actually get ahead of the curve because I think a lot of this, this silly bugger games of like he’s a development will divert some of the benefits from that to building infrastructure that’s not getting ahead of the curve. And like, look, just a bit of an anecdote from like, history of Sydney, is way back when our first rail lines went out to Sydney to service the farmers, okay. And that was why they were built. So if you wanted to build a settlement, you know, 10 or 20, KS out of out of the City Central, what would it then be in the city centre, you just build a railway station on some part of the railway track, and boom, boom, there’s the start of your community, your infrastructure has led your community rather than the infrastructure coming sometime later based on some deferred payment schedule, you know, so you know, where where? Yeah, I mean, let’s manholes and may well have a good point. I’m not going to disagree with it. But my position is, we were playing catch up before and if we’re going to be serious about playing, doing actual proper catch up, then we can’t just do business as usual like it was however many years ago. So that but yeah, he may well have a good point there.

Gene Tunny  46:23

One other thing I want to talk about before we wrap this up, is I want to talk about zoning, heritage character protection. Now 20% of Brisbane lots are protected by character, protection or heritage of some kind. So most of the pre war housing that well that’s protected all the old Queenslanders, it’s very difficult to redevelop those old Queenslanders to knock them down and to, to build townhouses, townhouses are now banned in low residential suburbs in Brisbane. So we’re, we’re limiting the supply side in that way. And Peter Tula has made my colleague at Centre for independent studies, he’s made a strong case for relaxing these restrictions, because they are driving up the cost of house and he points to what’s happened in Auckland, in Auckland in New Zealand. And I think there’s an emerging view that we need to have a yes in my backyard a young beatitude rather than a not in my backyard, a NIMBY attitude. Do you have any thoughts on that, John?

John August  47:36

Okay, well, first off my, my original position was saying, look, there’s too much land banking going on, and too much drip feed into the supply from the developers. And you know, the and now that analysis by the Melbourne George’s people running around with Drupal while riding around with cycles, looking how many vacant blocks there are analysing of blocks that don’t actually have water usage corresponding to people actually living there. So look, there’s a lot of stuff being held out of views, and that needs to be properly identified and engaged with. But as far as your other story about zoning, my best idea of a compromise would be if someone is basically wanting to hold on to that property and saying, Look, we want this to have its heritage value preserved, then basically, maybe they should be paying for that. And they should be paying for the privilege of having that status. Now the one of the problems is, is this something that owner wants something that the state government wants something that the council wants something that the community wants? Because I think there are cases of people who really want to develop their property, and it’s been hit with a heritage order. And they are people who want to develop and they are constrained by this. And I do do me I might mind vague feeling on this at the moment is, if someone wants to keep their property and says, Look, I endorse this heritage status, then they should perhaps pay extra. If the heritage status is being imposed on them by council on may resent it, then perhaps the council should pay for increased maintenance costs, because it’s harder to keep these old places going. And then there’s a thing of like, does the community have a legitimate interest in keeping the vibe of the place now, we’re talking about a lovely little coastal community and you drive through it and it’s a bit bit sort of not not overdeveloped close to the coast and it really does have a charming feel for me as a tourist driving through it. And I do wonder if that sort of thing is justified, but as with so many things, you know, this is a balance and the point that you’re making that may be a lot of people and not so much worrying about their heritage. values so much as being selfish, I suppose that’s a thing between a legitimate interest in inherited value, and a certain degree of selfishness. And I tend to think that if we have something like the rocks in Sydney, or, or New Orleans in the US or something, and you’re sort of saying, Well, look, here is this part of the city, which we are going to preserve. And I think that’s right, in Paris, they’ve got old Paris and New Paris. And I think if you’ve actually been to Paris, and just seeing this sea of like, four storey buildings, or maybe they’re five storey buildings, and it’s just awesome to contemplate, and then you turn your head, and there’s new parents sort of thing. So you know, that might be a bit of a better compromise, rather than this, this sea of sort of heritage buildings. Now, in contrast to some other commentators who I guess a lot more politically exploiting, than me, notice, I’m willing to say, let’s put all these ideas on the table and look at them all. Look at them all at once on the table at the same time. Now, it would be a bit sad to lose this green space, but as far as like the surrounding areas, but okay, look, you’ve actually triggered a thought that actually came out of The Science Party, which is a relative of the Pirate Party under the fusion Alliance. And we were actually talking about charter cities, and there’s one in Honduras and this sort of thing. And, you know, I’m just going to be very brief and say, Look, Shenzen, in China worked. And this one in Honduras doesn’t seem to have worked, even on delivering on its own terms. But that’s not an argument against all charter cities, because Shenzhen seems to have worked. But part of the reason why Shenzhen may have worked is because of the culture of community that was created. You know, a lot of the people either they stayed there because they want to stay there, or they move because they just chose to. So there could be a social variable behind this. But anyway, trying to get to a conclusion here. The Science Party did actually propose a charter city in between Sydney and Canberra, I guess maybe The Science Party grew up in Sydney. But anyway, so this charter city of touring was, to some degree going to be privately funded, have a road network that was going to be below ground from the beginning, have a lot of tower blocks, and a lot of green space, and paradoxically have actually higher density than the average density of Sydney, and also be privately funded. And the amazing thing is that ticked so many boxes you wouldn’t believe. But it’s, I’m not, I’m not going to comment on how politically practical it is, or how practical practical it is. But by golly, it’s an intriguing notion, you know, and that’s, that’s the charter city of touring that the The Science Party was once maybe they’re still actively promoting it. But certainly at one stage, they were promoting it as a cute way of doing the thing. And from my point of view, I sort of say, Alright, there’s touring. So we started our fast rail link between Sydney and Canberra via touring. And over time, we extend that extend that south towards Melbourne, and north towards Brisbane. And we eventually have a high speed rail linkage between Brisbane and Melbourne. But that’s a whole other thing of, you know, the practicality of the High Speed Rail Link and, you know, the relative captive monopoly of rail track of air transport between Sydney and Melbourne and so on and so forth. But, but yeah, that’s, that’s, that’s its own sort of rabbit warren. But anyway, so But in talking about your lives, and no one has

Gene Tunny  53:35

asked you about cheering Yeah. Just cheering It’s named after Alan cheer. That’s correct. Yes, you’d

John August  53:40

think that would come out of The Science Party. Darwin was actually named after Charles Darwin. So. But anyway, so yes, I’m willing to think about EMB zoning and those sorts of issues, but tried to put them on the table with all these other things at the same time. And as I say, in contrast to a lot of activists, I’m actually willing to say, look, let’s at least think about putting them all on the table at once.

Gene Tunny  54:01

Very good. And it’s not about getting rid of green space. I wouldn’t want to do that, I think. And it’s not about high rise towers, right, what they’re talking about, it’s about the missing middle housing units, six packs or townhouses because some of these old Queenslanders, you can we can get much better use of that land if we redevelop them. I think I think there’s a lot of merit in that because what we’ve got at the moment is we’ve got high density allowed in certain parts of the city that are former commercial or light industrial areas. And we have these massive towers. And yet we’ve got other areas which are close to the city with very low density, whereas we could have some nice missing middle housing, some medium density, which I think would really help us out a lot and I had Natalie Raymond from yimby, Queensland on in a previous episode, so I’ll put a link in the show notes to that. Right now, John has been has been great. Yeah, lots of issues. Ernie given me a lot to think about, we’re gonna have to come I’m gonna have to come back and chat with you about overseas development assistance. And the the the issues around that I liked how you mentioned or you were alluding to this concept of boomerang aid, because you know, aid that effectively just comes back to your country, because, you know, quite a bit of it is that, and it’s not necessarily beneficial to the, it may not be beneficial to the countries that receive it. So, yeah, I think there’s definitely some, then there’s a big debate about foreign aid and to what extent it is beneficial to the countries that receive it, or is it just beneficial to the elite and the countries? Does it help the poor? What What issues does it create? So I think we can we can have a good chat about that. And also about Georgia ism, and land value taxation. I think that’s something that probably warrants its own episode. Anything you’d like to say before we conclude anything else?

John August  55:54

All right, well, I’ll just give a plug for a film called a frightened Yeah. Which is as in freight, you know, that’s shipping. So you can get that to that at thought navy.com. And that’s talking about the nature of shipping because shipping is such, I mean, this film was made a while ago, but as far as I understand, shipping is still as dodgy as it once was that basically, people are working boring, risky jobs on shipping. And were sort of basically bought cheaper goods at the supermarket. But look, you know, hopefully, I’m not not a pretentious middle class guy, but I’m willing to pay for the dolphin safe tuna and the the, the the, the open range eggs. And, and certainly, if you know, this conditions on board ships are a bit more comfortable, you know, I’m happy to pay a bit more for my goods at the supermarket. And I think that, you know, basically there is the quite the possibility that in a sense, the shipping companies are offloading, you know, responsibility on to us when they themselves have gotten unfortunate work practices and flags of convenience and all this sort of thing, a bit of a metaphor to tax tax dodgers and Cayman Islands and so on. So but that that’s its own sort of, I guess, rabbit hole, but I thought I’ll give that particular film a bit of a plug. It’s certainly worth checking out.

Gene Tunny  57:12

Okay. John Agus, thanks so much for your time, I really enjoy the conversation. As always, you’ve given me a lot to think about. So thanks so much.

John August  57:21

Okay, well, well, you’ve also put forward your side of things. And notice I haven’t tried to dismiss it. I’ve just said, Look, we need to put all these things on the table at once. And I’m certainly willing to at least think about things so absolutely. certainly happy to do that. Very good. Thanks, John. Okay, thank you.

Gene Tunny  57:38

Right. Hi, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com, or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

58:25

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this where to begin your own podcasting journey, head on over to obsidian-productions.com

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Is Uncle Sam Running a Ponzi Scheme with the National Debt? w/ Dr Dan Mitchell – EP235

In this episode, show host Gene Tunny engages with Dr Dan Mitchell in a frank discussion about the US’s looming debt crisis. The conversation covers Dan’s new book, co-authored with Les Rubin, The Greatest Ponzi Scheme on Earth: How the US Can Avoid Economic Collapse. In the episode, Dan talks about the unsustainable trajectory of federal debt, the consequences of government overspending, and the tough choices needed to avert economic disaster. Hear how Dan reacts to the Modern Monetary Theory view that debt and deficits aren’t a problem.

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored.

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: Dr Dan Mitchell

Daniel J. Mitchell is a top expert on fiscal policy issues such as tax reform, the economic impact of government spending, and supply-side tax policy. Mitchell is a former senior fellow with The Cato Institute and The Heritage Foundation and served as an economist for Senator Bob Packwood and the Senate Finance Committee. His articles can be found in such publications as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Investor’s Business Daily, and Washington Times. He is a frequent guest on radio and television and a popular speaker on the lecture circuit. Mitchell holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees in economics from the University of Georgia and a Ph.D. in economics from George Mason University. 

What’s covered in EP235

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • US government debt and entitlement programs. (4:48)
  • Government spending and its impact on the economy. (9:05)
  • US government spending, Social Security, and fiscal policy. (14:06)
  • US retirement systems and entitlement programs. (18:32)
  • Medicare reform and the federal budget. (24:05)
  • US budget deficits and entitlement programs. (27:59)
  • Taxes, spending, and economic growth. (33:01)
  • Kyle Kulinksi clip. (38:11)
  • Dan responds to Monetary Monetary Theory (41:00).  
  • Entitlement programs and government spending. (44:40)

Takeaways

  1. The US federal debt is soaring, with projections showing a large increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio in the coming decades.
  2. Government spending, particularly on entitlement programs, is the primary driver of fiscal imbalance.
  3. Addressing the debt crisis requires significant policy changes, including reforming entitlement programs like Social Security and, to a lesser extent, Medicare and Medicaid.
  4. Reforming Social Security through personal retirement accounts could save trillions over the long run.  
  5. Lessons from other countries show that fiscal discipline and restructuring can improve economic stability.

Links relevant to the conversation

Lumo Coffee promotion

Lumo Coffee Discount: Visit Lumo Coffee (lumocoffee.com) and use code EXPLORED20 for a 20% discount until April 30, 2024.

Transcript: Is Uncle Sam Running a Ponzi Scheme with the National Debt? w/ Dr Dan Mitchell – EP235

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Dan Mitchell  00:04

We had this wonderful opportunity back when we had a much stronger fiscal situation and we blew it. And it could very well be in 30 years. As you know, once we’ve hit that iceberg with our fiscal Titanic’s, you know, sort of the, on the tombstone of the American economy will be. It’s a shame that we had the Monica Lewinsky Bill Clinton scandal because it ruined our chance of saving the country.

Gene Tunny  00:37

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. A lot of thanks for tuning into the show. In this episode, I’m delighted to speak once again with one of my favourite economics commentators Dr. Dan Mitchell, co founder and chairman of the Centre for freedom and prosperity. Dan was previously a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. And earlier in his career, he worked as an economist for a US senator and for the Senate Finance Committee. This episode I’m speaking with Dan about his new book, co authored with entrepreneurs Rubin titled The greatest Ponzi scheme on Earth, how the US can avoid economic collapse. It’s about a rapidly growing US federal debt. The US federal debt is over 120% of GDP currently, and according to the Congressional Budget Office, it will reach 181% of GDP in 2053. In this episode, Dan explains the difficult policy choices that will need to be made for the US to get its debt under control. This episode of economics explored is brought to you by Lumo coffee, which has three times the healthy antioxidants of regular coffee. It seriously healthy organic coffee Lumo offers a 20% discount for economics, explore listeners until the 30th of April 2024. Check out the show notes for details. As always, I’d be interested in what you think about what we discussed this episode. Are you concerned about the ever growing US federal debt? Also, please let me know any ideas you have for how I can improve the show. You can find my contact details in the show notes. Right? Oh, we’d better get into it. I hope you enjoy the episode. Dr. Dan Mitchell, welcome back on to the programme.

02:42

Glad to be with you, Jane.

Gene Tunny  02:44

Yes, it’s excellent. Dan, I’ve enjoyed reading your new book with your co author, Liz Rubin, the greatest Ponzi scheme on Earth,

02:55

how the US can avoid economic collapse. To start off with, could

Gene Tunny  03:02

you explain why do you compare the fiscal situation in the US to a Ponzi scheme, please? Well,

Dan Mitchell  03:09

a Ponzi scheme as your listeners and viewers may know or not know, is when you, in fact, get the sucker people into a game where they pay money. And they’re promised that they’ll get their money back because new people will always come into the game. So if you get the game early, you can wind up winning, but all Ponzi schemes ultimately fall apart. Because they’re your pyramid schemes where however you want to describe them, there just aren’t enough new suckers that join the game to keep it going. So the early people get out, and they make a profit. But the vast majority of people wind up losing their money. And when you look at the budgets, by the way, not just in the United States, but in many Western nations with demographics of ageing populations, and poorly designed entitlement programmes. When the US budget and the budget of a lot of other countries, we’re heading toward disaster because government is growing faster than the private sector. And when government grows faster than the private sector sooner or later, that’s going to lead to massive debt increases massive tax increases massive money printing to finance government spending is just a recipe in the long run for some sort of disaster, and then the United States. We’re like the Titanic sailing toward the iceberg. Except we can see the iceberg. We know what’s going to happen. We know it’s going to be bad news, but politicians, they don’t think past the next election cycle, or at least they don’t act like they do. And as a result, it gets worse every year because they keep adding more spending on top of all the spending already in the pipeline.

Gene Tunny  04:48

Yeah. Can we talk about that, please? Dan, is it true that the US it’s running it’s got a baked in budget deficit, hasn’t it? It’s got a structural budget deficit of several percentage points of GDP. And so that means your debt to GDP ratio is going up by several percentage points of GDP every year. And I’m not sure the exact figure, but are you at something like 100? And is it 130% of GDP or something of that order of magnitude at the moment in terms of debt to GDP, we

Dan Mitchell  05:18

have two measures. And this, this confuses a lot of people, we have gross debt as a share of GDP. And then we have public debt as a share of GDP. The public debt as a share of GDP, I think is the more relevant number, because that’s the calculation of how much money the government has borrowed from the private sector. The gross debt includes the money the government owes itself because we have with programmes like our social security system, which is our pension system in the US. When the government was collecting excess payroll tax revenues, the Social Security system would give those payroll tax revenues to the Treasury, the Treasury would issue government bonds, a special type of government bond and the Social Security system, but it was the government taking money out of one pocket and putting an IOU in the other pocket. It’s only a bookkeeping entry. So so a lot of people when they cite that higher number in the range of 130% of GDP, that’s the gross public debt, which is the real public debt, ie the debt held by the public, plus the the amount of money the government owes itself for these phoney trust funds.

Gene Tunny  06:29

Right, so So what is it roughly I mean, you have, I think, what’s good about your book as you you’re careful to you talk about the actual liabilities, there are some there are the ones that are owed to the bondholders. And then there are also these unfunded liabilities. So you talk about this broader range of liabilities as well, I like that, can you? Can you give us a picture of where the US is now and where it’s heading?

Dan Mitchell  06:55

Well, it’ll be a depressing story. As I already said, the most important thing to worry about is that government spending is growing faster than the private sector. And as long as those trend lines are upside down, where government is growing faster than private sector, that ultimately is a recipe, as I said, for massive tax increases, massive debt increases, and government printing money to finance its budget, Allah, Argentina, at least pre President Malay down there. Now, what accounts for our trouble? Why is government growing faster than their private sector? The main thing is the entitlements. And since we were just talking about public debt, government debt, let me try to explain three different calculations. That held by the public, as we already discussed, is the amount that governments borrowed from the private sector to gross public debt includes the money the government owes itself for the phoney trust funds and Social Security and things like that. But then the really scary number are the unfunded liabilities. And that’s just a measure of how much money the government has committed to pay for various entitlement programmes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and since those programmes are the ones growing the fastest, and says the revenues, even though revenues are growing over time, you know, not only a nominal dollar, not only in inflation adjusted dollars, but even as a percentage GDP, the tax take in the United States is scheduled and projected to increase over the next several decades. The problem is government is projected to grow at a much, much faster rate. And these unfunded liabilities. And as you probably know, Jean, you know, a lot depends on what your projections are interest rates, discount rates, all these other things. But we’re talking potentially several 100 trillion dollars, depending again, what what assumptions you have in your model. And what it really boils down to is massive, long run fiscal imbalance in the United States, because government is simply growing much too fast and, and reuse my metaphor, we are heading for that iceberg. We’re in the Titanic. And it’s very frustrating that we have such short sighted politicians in both parties, by the way, where they just say, Oh, who cares? That’s, that’s a problem for someone in the future. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  09:17

And you talk about this concept of a doom loop. Are we is the US in that doom loop already? Or is that something that could happen in the future? If you

Dan Mitchell  09:27

were to ask me to make a guess? I would be on the pessimistic side. I just don’t think that our current political class has enough responsibility. My former George Mason University professor, the Nobel Prize winner, James Buchanan, we came up with the whole public choice school of economics, analysing what are the incentives facing politicians and bureaucrats, things like that. He and other public choice scholars will sometimes talk about the unwritten constitution And for a long time in the United States, there was this sort of expectation, even among politicians, well, we can’t really mess things up too badly. We have to sort of keep government under control. We can’t let debt spiral out of control. We can have massive, massive money printing or excessive taxation. And so that sort of kept things within check. Unfortunately, I just don’t think those constraints exist anymore. In some cases, I think it’s just pure shallow politics. I don’t care about the future. I’m going to buy votes today, try to accumulate power, make my committee more important, whatever their the incentives are, the politicians have. And in some cases, I think you have genuinely deluded people, especially on the left, who think, Oh, well, bigger government is good for the economy. You know, maybe they’re Keynesians, maybe they’re hardcore socialists, but I’m sure some of them are, are sincere in their beliefs, however diluted they are. But I think the main problem is, is that the politicians simply are so short sighted. They care more about their political careers than they do about the best interests of the country. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  11:07

I think I think you’re right there. Unfortunately, it seems to me, my impression is, is that politicians were more, there was more of a bipartisan consensus. I mean, now you don’t have either party that seems to be concerned about it. But back in the 90s, it seemed to be that there was more of a concerted effort by Congress on both sides of the aisle to get things under control. And then that helped Bill Clinton run some budget surpluses in the 90s. So yeah, even Joe Biden’s as a senator was, was very much in involved in these efforts. Am I reading that correctly? Dan?

Dan Mitchell  11:44

I think you’re basically Correct. You had, especially once the Republicans took over Congress in 1994. You know what sometimes it was called the Gingrich revolution, after being in the minority in Congress for What deal 40 years, the Republicans took the house, they took the Senate, it was a massive landslide win. And to give Bill Clinton credit, he didn’t try to fight it, he gave that famous State of the Union address where he said the era of big government is over, there’s over. And it wasn’t just rhetoric, going for a four year period, following the Republican takeover of Congress, government grew by an average in nominal terms of only 2.9% a year. And that was when we went from these massive $200 billion plus deficits. Now, of course, that seems small when we’re talking about reading today. But back then everyone was worried that was some threshold and you’ve crossed over it, you were being very irresponsible. Well, those big deficits turned into budget surpluses within a very short period of time, why government road grew at an average of 2.9% a year. And nominal GDP, of course, was growing much faster than that. And since revenue tends to track nominal GDP, that meant revenue was growing faster. So we had a bigger and bigger private sector, and relatively speaking, a smaller and smaller burden of government spending. Now, we got the budget surplus, but you know, when I think mattered, even more government spending as a share of GDP declined, because as Milton Friedman informed us many decades ago, the burden of government is not how much in taxes, it’s how much it spends. Because whether you you finance that government spending with borrowing with printing money, or with taxing, you’re diverting resources from the productive sector of the economy, so a lot of people in the US are very fixated on reading deficits, and that, Oh, that’s terrible. Well, they are bad. But government spending is the real problem. That’s what we need to get under control. And if we get government under control, make sure that the private sector is growing faster than the government, you’re gonna get rid of reading, you’re maybe not in one year, maybe not two years. And given the magnitude of the problem we face today, it might even take five years or 10 years. But so long as government spending is constrained, you’re eventually going to solve your problems of reading. And but the key thing to understand is government spending is the underlying problem. Red ink is simply a symptom of the problem.

Gene Tunny  14:14

Yeah, one of the strong points you make in the book is that the US Treasury itself, it’s issued warnings about this, hasn’t it? That this current fiscal path is unsustainable. So is this Janet Yellen is treasury. Does that mean that Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary knows this problem? And presumably she’s, I mean, you hope she’s telling, you know, Biden, and you know, the people in the West Wing about this. So where does the what’s going wrong? Is it in Congress? Is it the fact that it’s all just politically too hard that you’ve got these entitlements baked into the system? Well, what’s going on? What’s going wrong?

Dan Mitchell  14:52

I don’t know what Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary tells Joe Biden or for that matter, the Director of the Office of Management Budget, theoretically in charge of the spending side of budget, but whatever they’re telling him, Joe Biden’s budgets are terrible. He does have massive tax increases. And some people say, Oh, look, he’s serious about the deficit. He wants to raise taxes. But he’s always proposing massive spending increases. And of course, what do we know about tax increases, they never generate as much revenue as the politicians think because people change their behaviour. But also, whenever there’s an expectation of higher revenue in Washington, politicians can’t resist increasing spending. So Biden’s budgets were ever enacted. I would bet dollars to donuts that we would have more brand A we would have higher deficits, for those two reasons. So I don’t think you and again, is it Biden’s fault? Is it is it his appointees fault? Who knows who cares? The the key thing to understand is, he has terrible fiscal policy. He seems to be captured by sort of the Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren wing of the Democratic Party. And frankly, there really isn’t a bill clinton wing of the Democratic Party anymore. That’s that’s the problem. So, you know, Joe Biden, when he was a senator went along with Bill Clinton’s more free market economic agenda in the 1990s. But now, Joe Biden is doing the Elizabeth Warren Bernie Sanders agenda. And unfortunately, you know, Republicans have sort of lost that that old Tea Party zeal for fiscal responsibility and spending restraint. And that makes it very depressing for people like me, who work on fiscal policy in Washington.

Gene Tunny  16:35

Yes, yes. In terms of what can be done about it. So I had a guest on a couple of weeks ago, Michael Johnston is a in the in the finance industry. And he’s and he’s had a look at it. And you know, he’s we talked about the retirement age, we talked about the contributions, changes to the payroll tax contributions. We talked about, you know, different options for reforming Social Security. And you cover those in your book, many, I think, similar ones, but you’ve got a transition plan, which I think is really interesting, because there’s this recognition that the trust fund is exhausted to the or what happens is that when they run out of those IOUs, that the Treasury put in there, I mean, the cash went a long time ago. But when you get to a certain point, and then they have to cut benefits, don’t they? There’s a there’s a point in 2033, or whatever it is, but you’ve got a plan for improving that or getting out of that situation fixing up social security over I think it’s a 20 year period. Can you explain that plan, please, Dan,

Dan Mitchell  17:46

the problem we have with Social Security is that the spending and the programme is growing much faster than the revenues going into the programme. And as a result, this mythical trust fund is being depleted, the IOUs are being cashed in, which simply means the Treasury’s borrowing more money. But the trust fund, you know, as funny as it is, it’s still an important bookkeeping entry. And that’s going to run out in the early half of the first half of next decade. And then, technically, under the law, there’ll be an automatic cut and benefits for senior citizens of more than 20%. Now, will politicians allow that to happen? Probably not, you know, they could pass a lot tomorrow and add five zeros to every IOU in the trust fund. And on paper, that would solve the problem. But of course, it would only solved the problems by having Uncle Sam just issue hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars, and eventually trillions and trillions of dollars of new debt. So given the ageing of our population, and given the fact that Social Security is so poorly designed, in the book, less Reuben and I proposed to, in effect, do something similar to what you guys have in Australia, have a system of personal retirement accounts based on real savings. Now, you guys sort of just adopted it out of nothing. We have this giant unfunded liability and poorly designed Social Security system. And so our challenge is going to be entirely different. Because if we allow younger workers to start, in effect, shifting their payroll taxes into personal retirement accounts, how are we going to pay the benefits to current retirees, or to workers who are too old to benefit from a new system? And that’s what’s called the transition cost. And the transition costs, frankly, will be enormous. You’re talking 10s of trillions of dollars over the next 20 years. And some people say, Oh, my God, we can’t do that. 10s of trillions of dollars when we already have this giant amount of government debt. Well, here’s the here’s the most important thing to understand the unfunded liability. The cash flow deficit of The Social Security system over the next 75 years, and inflation adjusted dollars is more than $60 trillion. So here’s the choice, we have in the US two choices, to keep the current system going with a giant $60 trillion plus cash flow deficit, or transition to a system of personal retirement accounts, which $20 trillion or more of transition costs. Now, I don’t like having to make that choice. But if I’m going to have to make a choice, I’d rather have a $20 trillion problem to deal with than a $60 trillion problem to deal with. And then at the end of the day, wouldn’t it be great to have a retirement system based on private savings, rather than a government retirement system that’s untrustworthy, that’s based on taxes and debt. So I think Australia, not just Australia, Switzerland, Netherlands, Sweden, Chile, you know, there are several dozen countries around the world that now have much stronger and retirement systems that are better for national economies, but retirement systems that also are better for individual workers. So that’s a giant challenge for the United States. We almost did it, by the way, during the Clinton years. And that’s what’s so tragic. rebill Clinton was on board, he understood the issue, Republicans and Congress understood the issue. But then we got that whole impeachment thing, and Bill Clinton had to move to the left to shore up the Democratic base. And as a result, we had this wonderful opportunity back when we had a much stronger fiscal situation, and we blew it. And it could very well be in 30 years. As you know, once we’ve hit that iceberg with our fiscal Titanic’s sort of the, the tombstone of the American economy will be it’s a shame that we had the Monica Lewinsky Bill Clinton scandal because it ruined our chance of saving the country. Right? Yeah, yeah. Yeah, that’s

Gene Tunny  22:02

a that’s a good political observation there. Dan. I think that a lot of the maybe a lot of the craziness does date from from that episode. That was an extraordinary of a so now, what about Medicare? I mean, one of the other issues is Medicare and Medicaid, do you have recommendations for those programmes to

Dan Mitchell  22:25

the good news about Medicare and Medicaid is that those problems are much easier to deal with and Social Security. With Medicaid. That’s the easiest one of all because, and that, by the way, for your your listeners and viewers outside of the United States, Medicaid is the federal government’s programme, to provide health care to poor people. And what we should do to that programme is what we did under Bill Clinton with welfare reform in the 1990s. Simply take the programme, block, grant it and turn it over to the states. And then the states would then have full flexibility to innovate and experiment, figure out the best way and most cost efficient way of providing health care to low income people, and that work fantastically with welfare reform. We reduce poverty, we reduce child poverty, we increase labour force participation among low income people. So let’s learn from that success and fix the Medicaid programme. Wonderful, simple choice. We actually almost did it during the Trump years. I mean, Trump was very irresponsible in many areas on government spending. But Congress came within one vote in the Senate from making that reform is another one of these tragic things of history, that, that we didn’t take that opportunity. But maybe it can happen in the next four years, because that’s an issue where we’re, I think Trump is open to doing the right thing. Now let’s shift to Medicare. Now, Joe Biden has said no changes to Medicare, that’s irresponsible. Donald Trump has said no changes to Medicare, that’s fiscally irresponsible. So it’s very hard for me to be optimistic about anything happening on this programme in the next few years. But let’s explain what should be done. And again, for your overseas listeners and viewers. Medicare is the federal government’s programme to provide health care for old people, Medicaid, health care for poor people, Medicare, health care for old people. I’m on Medicare, because I’m 65. So you have to sign up. So I know I’m part of the problem now. But the simple way to solve that, and by the way, Republicans back during the Tea Party era, in the early part of last decade, they had budgets, the Paul Ryan budgets that fix both Medicare and Medicaid and what they did with Medicare at the end of that they looked at the Health Care programme for federal government workers for the Federal Employees Health Benefits programme. And in effect, what it does is it tells federal bureaucrats, here are your choices and health plans. You pick the one that that best serves you the federal gov reds can provide a certain amount of support to premium support. So we subsidise the plans, but you pick the plan that you want. Well, let’s do the same thing with senior citizens. Give everyone this sort of voucher if you want to call it that, and then let them pick from from a range of approved plans. And then of course, if you limit how fast the premium support grows, you could wind up saving trillions and trillions of dollars over time. Just like with the Medicaid block grant, you can save trillions and trillions of dollars over time, so long as you keep the growth of either the block grant or the premium support from growing slower than the private sector. So fixing Medicare and Medicaid shouldn’t be that difficult, not nearly as big of a fiscal challenge as fixing Social Security. But of course, it will be a political challenge, because we saw back when Paul Ryan was trying to fix these programmes. last decade, you had you had folks on the left running campaign commercials of a Paul Ryan look like pushing a grandmother off a cliff. It gives you an idea of the kind of silly demagoguery we get in US elections. But the good news is Republicans several years in a row during the Tea Party era, they were passing budgets that presumed Medicaid and Medicare reform. Now, Bill Clinton was in the White House, obviously, these programmes died in Congress because they couldn’t get any farther than that. But if Republicans can sort of rediscovered that Ronald Reagan, Tea Party type spirit of fiscal responsibility, I think there is a chance maybe not with Trump in the White House. But at some point, you know, I think there’ll be a Reagan type conservative in the White House. And those programmes can and should and must be fixed. We discuss that in the book we explain, you know, we don’t go into great details, we don’t want to bore just the average reader. The whole purpose of the book is to explain and common sense language with lots of facts, but not bearing people with jargon and stuff like that. Here is our problem. Here’s the direction we’re going that direction is going to be a disaster. But if we make these reforms, we can we can make America much more prosperous.

Gene Tunny  27:19

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  27:24

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with adept economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice. We can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world. You can get in touch via our website, www dot adapt economics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  27:53

Now back to the show. Okay, and what about defence, Stan? So there’s a you know, reasonably widespread view that I mean, the Pentagon waste money? I mean, I think that’s undeniable. It’s failed six or seven audits. There are concerns about unnecessary, costly military adventures abroad. 7 trillion or whatever. There’s all of these astronomical estimates for what the, you know, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria has cost the US and will continue to cost in the future. Is there anything that should be done about defence in your view?

Dan Mitchell  28:34

I’m sure there must be hundreds of billions of dollars of waste, and the Pentagon, but we focused in the book, what are the long term drivers of our fiscal problems, and it’s, it’s not the defence budget, the defence budget has, has keeps coming down as a percentage of the budget over time. Or if you measure the defence budget as a share of GDP, it’s come down. Obviously, we don’t want to waste money anywhere, even if it’s not the driving force and driving problem in the budget. But defence is not the issue. Now. That doesn’t mean we should do costly nation building exercises in the Middle East. But on the other hand, I’m not enough defence foreign policy expert. But given what Russia is doing, and given China’s sabre rattling in the South China Sea and stuff like that, I’m not sure I would want to radically slashed the defence budget, I would probably want to reorganise it. So we’re more focused on being able to protect America’s national interest. But but that’s separate from I guess, a fiscal debate. Again, fiscal fiscally speaking, the defence budget is is just a tiny fraction of our problem. And that’s even part of the problem at all.

Gene Tunny  29:47

Right? Because it’s these, these entitlement programmes where you’ve got that fundamental problem of the spending ghetto, getting away from any revenue that’s coming into town, you know, to fund them. So yeah. And take that point. Right, and why isn’t higher? I mean, I think you make a good a good case for why this is a spending problem. It’s not a just a low tax problem. Can you explain why you wouldn’t want? The government has to address this fiscal gap through higher taxes? Please, Dan?

Dan Mitchell  30:22

Well, I guess there are two things that are important to understand. The Congressional Budget Office every year publishes a long run forecast. And by long run, they’re looking out 30 years, they published his long run forecast of the US economy. And in that document, the most recent one came out just last month, I think it was maybe two months ago. But it showed that revenues are above their long run average. Spending is also above the long run average. And if you look at the forecast, 30 years out, the revenue burden is going to climb to record levels, because mostly because of real bracket creep. In other words, as you know, even in a sluggish growth economy, you know, people are going to sort of their incomes are going to increase, they’re gonna go into higher tax brackets. So the government winds up getting bonus tax payments, with even modest levels of economic growth. So the tax burden is heading to be at an all time high. But because government spending is projected to grow much faster than the private sector, it means that, that we’re falling farther and farther behind. So just as a matter of pure math, our problem is more than 100%. on the spending side of the budget. Again, revenue is climbing as a share of GDP. But because spending is climbing much, much faster. Why on earth would we want to increase taxes on the American people for a problem that is more than 100%? on the spending side of the budget. But that’s just the math argument. Now, let’s look at what I call the public choice slash economic issue, which is that if you put taxes on the table, what are politicians going to do, they’re going to increase spending. And not only that, if they get the taxes throw, the economy’s gonna suffer. Now, I’m never one to say, Oh, you raised this tax or that tax, there’s going to be a recession, I worry more about if you raise this texture, that tax, the long run growth rate will decline. And even if it only declines a small amount, maybe two tenths of 1%, a year that has massive long run implications because of the wedge effect over time. And then, and I think that even left wing economists, the honest ones are going to admit that higher marginal tax rates on work saving and investing are not good for growth. So as GDP gets smaller and smaller over time, at least in terms of compared to some baseline projection, that means foregone tax revenue, because there’s less national income to tax. So what’s the bottom line, politicians will spend more money because of the higher taxes and the higher taxes won’t generate as much revenue? And you don’t want to know what the most powerful evidence for this is? I think I get the data for the, for the 15 countries of the old European Union, in other words, the core Western European countries that would be most analogous to the United States or, for that matter, Australia, relatively rich by world standards, Western oriented nations. And what did I show in the European Union, you go back and I did a five year average. So nobody could accuse me of cherry picking just one year that was favourable to my analysis. I did a five year average for the last half of the 1960s. And I looked at government spending as a share of GDP, taxes of the share of GDP, and government debt as a share of GDP, and taxes between the end of the 1960s. And the most recent five years, the tax burden in Western Europe increased by 10 percentage points of GDP. Now, politicians in Western Europe and these various countries Germany, France, Belgium, Netherlands, etc, etc. They said, Well, we have to raise taxes, because we have red ink, we have deficits and debt. So I said, Okay, taxes went up by an enormous amount as a share of GDP between the late 60s and today. What happened to government debt, they use this massive increase in the tax burden to lower government debt, no government debt during that period, doubled as a share of GDP. In other words, politicians spend every single penny of that new revenue plus some. So when I debate some of my left wing friends, I tell them, show me an example. Anywhere in the world, where we’re giving politicians more money to spend has resulted in better long run fiscal performance. It just doesn’t happen. By contrast, I’ve gone through the IMS World Economic Outlook Database, and I found not a lot unfortunately, but I found many examples of countries that for multi year periods had government spending growing at 2%? a year or less? And what do you find, in those cases when they’re spending restraint. And we talked about this, by the way, we have an entire chapter in the book, where I cite some of these good examples. When you have spending restraint. Deficits go down the burden of government spending, as a share of GDP goes down, you have success. Yeah, I couldn’t, we could add some blank pages in the book, and lift and title that chapter success stories of higher taxes, because there wouldn’t be anything to write.

Gene Tunny  35:32

Very good. And you saw it studies by OECD and IMF, I think that do establish that empirical link between taxes and growth and negative link. If you have a higher tax to GDP, you have a lower economic growth rate. If I’m if I remember correctly, you cite some of those studies. So I can put links in there.

Dan Mitchell  35:53

It is remarkable that the OECD and then the IMF, by and large are sort of, I don’t know whether you’d call them left leaning bureaucracies, but drug pushers controlled by government bureaucrats who respond to their political paymasters in Washington and Berlin and Brussels and Paris. And so you get a lot of bad advice from the IMF and the OECD. But both of those international bureaucracies have economics departments that do working papers and studies. And even though these studies don’t get a lot of attention, I look at them. And it’s remarkable how often those studies point to the fact that spending restraint, and low tax rates are good for growth, while at the same time to political appointees at the IMF and the OECD. They go around the world saying government should raise taxes and increase spending. So I’m not a fan of international bureaucracies. He has the leadership of the International bureaucracies. They respond to pressure from national capitals around the world. And unfortunately, when you have Joe Biden, and the US and your Sunak, in the United Kingdom, might as well be a Labour Party, Prime Minister, and then of course, he macarons No, good. Schultz. I mean, we just have so many bad left wing governments and the major countries of the world that you wind up with the OECD and the IMF responding to their pressure to give bad advice, even though many of the economists that work at those bureaucracies, publish papers that have findings that that good economists would agree with.

Gene Tunny  37:22

Yeah, yeah. Yeah, they’re not motivated by the politics. They just want to do the the analysis, crunch the numbers and come up with credible findings. So absolutely. Dan, before we wrap up, I’d like to play you a clip, which I think is it’s representative of all the the opposite view to yours. And, and in a way, it’s almost like when I listened to it yesterday, I thought is this Kyle Kolinsky actually talking about Dan, but I think he’s just thinking generally about other, you know, economists and what economists are not and what I think mainstream economists think about the dead. I don’t think this is necessarily a libertarian economist view. So I want to play this and then get your reactions to it because it’s, it’s quite a quite a fascinating clip.

Kyle Kulinski  38:11

Your line of attack against both Trump and Biden is the debt. That’s the first thing you list the existential issue of the debt. Okay, let’s be clear, guys, that is simply a right wing argument. That’s like the libertarian economics types, the Austrian economics types. The idea that, you know, the nation’s debt is you should conceptualise it the same as household debt. Like if you have household debt, you only have a choice, you kind of have to pay it off. Like you have to. It appears like RFK has no idea how the national debt functions, especially when you have a sovereign currency. He should read up not only on Keynesianism, but on modern monetary theory, because all this debt and deficit fear mongering, I just need to understand this. It’s the dumbest shit of all time. It’s just the dumbest shit of all time. Just just to give one example, Japan has had a lot of debt for a long time. And even their debt to GDP ratio was kind of out of whack. And a lot of like, right wing wall street types have been predicting forever, a debt crisis that’s going to hit Japan. And it never comes. They’ve been saying it since like the 1990s. That that’s gonna happen. It never comes. Why? Because they fundamentally misunderstand what the national debt is, what it means to run a deficit, how that impacts the economy. Here’s a fact that a lot of people don’t know. Did you know that public debts lead to private growth? Right. So from that perspective, you might even say in many instances, public debt is a good it’s just a good thing. Not it’s a bad thing. We got to fear it. You know, this is bad and wrong, and we need to reverse it and we need to Make sure we cut it. No. In some instances, it’s a good thing. Like there are very positive outcomes that come from public debt. And again, I don’t, I don’t think he understands it, that public debt means private surpluses. That is like, that’s the lifeblood, certainly of a capitalist economic system.

Gene Tunny  40:21

Right. So that was Carl Kolinsky, who’s a very prominent progressive commentator in the, the US and he was responding to something RFK Jr. said, he told Erin Burnett on CNN, regarding how he sees the dead as an accident, an existential threat to the US. And he’s worried that neither Biden nor Trump are actually that concerned about it, or will will do anything about it. So Dan, do you have any thoughts on I mean, that particular viewpoint, I’d be interested in your reactions to that because it is it does seem to be a common view among, among many people out there.

Dan Mitchell  41:00

But I never thought I would agree with RFK, Jr. on something, but he is right about Trump and Biden. They don’t care about that. But I would change the focus. My concern with Trump and Biden is that they don’t care about the growth of government. And as we’ve already talked about, Jean, that growth of government is the problem. The growth of debt is a symptom of the problem. Now, there’s no question that, that a lot of people who do fixate on the debt, have pointed to Japan and said, Oh, this, this is not going to end well. And, and I think those people are right, but it’s always a danger to imply that crisis will happen overnight. Now, having said that, let’s Ruben and I, at the start of our book, we give a little story. We say imagine that you’re Greek, and that you’re living in Greece in the mid 2000s. And everything seems great. You’re now part of the euro, your interest rates have come down, your economy is growing 4% a year. And sure there are some people complaining, well, wait, our demographics aren’t friendly, and our government debt is too high and government’s growing too fast. But you don’t care as a great citizen, because the government’s giving you lots of benefits. And it seems like the economy is just fine. And you think, oh, this person is just, you know, crying wolf. Well, guess what, within five years, your economies and one of the most massive, severe economic downturns that we’ve seen in the modern history of the Western world, and then, you know, their living standards dropped by 25%. In Greece, it was a horrible wrenching experience, because they got to the point where what happened were investors didn’t trust the Greek government. Now, we’re used to that with third world countries or developing countries, I guess we don’t use third world anymore. Why? Why has Argentina defaulted so many times because at least before President Malay, they’ve had all these Coronas governments that would spend money, borrow money, print, print money to finance their budgets. And then they got to a point where international investors said, I’m not gonna buy any bonds from that, from that government. That’s when you have a fiscal crisis, when investors no longer trust your government to pay back the bonds when they borrow money. Now, is Japan going to hit that? That that that crisis point? I think at some point, they probably will, because their demographics are really challenging. They have the entitlement problems, and government debt is more than 20% of GDP. And now, yes, they got the Japanese government has certain regulations, that sort of forces, a lot of private savings into buying government bonds. But at some point, you have to wonder they’re gonna run out of time. And I think the same thing will happen to the United States if we don’t get control of government spending. So I disagree with the gentleman whose clip that you played. I think that government debt is a troubling symptom of a bigger problem of government growing too fast. And I think Greece isn’t is a real world. Not that far ago, example of how that won’t end well. And yes, the US is the world’s reserve currency. We can print a bunch of money. But the mere fact that that guy was citing modern, modern monetary theory, the biggest crank theory that you could possibly imagine that you can sum up print your way to prosperity if that was true. Why isn’t Venezuela the most prosperous country on the planet? So I don’t know what that guy was smoking but that must be really fun.

Gene Tunny  44:40

Yeah, but look, it is. It is actually a an increasingly common view among particularly younger younger people. So I think it’s it’s interesting, he’s very influential on in those progressive circles in the state so that I get your reaction from that. Okay to that Okay, Dan, this has been terrific go. Yeah, I really enjoyed your book, I’m really gonna recommend it. I’ll put a link in the show notes. I learned a lot I learned about, you know, exactly what’s happening with Social Security in this days for the trust fund. That’s fascinating how it’s full of IOUs, how there’s going to be this, this critical point in in 2032, or 33. And I chatted about that with Michael Johnston as well, that will, hopefully for some type of action is not just some sort of, you know, putting in a couple of zeros, as you suggest that they could do, they could just say, Oh, look, all is good. We’ll just give you some, you know, pretend you’ve got more money in that trust fund. Let’s say they actually do something about that. And also liked you cite Switzerland as an exemplar of a of a, of a country that appears to be doing things really well. And in federal, the federalism there, the Federation could help because there’s the cantons compete with each other. They don’t want to have high taxes, they want to attract people. So I think that’s a good example. So yeah, definitely learned a lot from the book. Is there anything you’d like to say before we wrap this up, please, Dan?

Dan Mitchell  46:09

Well, of course, I recommend that people buy the book. I suspect, given that it’s a wonky topic, we’ll never sell enough that we get any royalties to speak of. So I want people to buy the book, not to not to put money in my pockets. But to understand what our problem is. Government is growing too fast. We have so many real world examples of countries that have done good things and bad things in the book. We have very accessible, easy to understand explanations of what’s wrong with our entitlement programmes, to solutions to fix those problems. And all I know is that I don’t want to be that Greek citizen in 2005, who 10 years later, was suffering through a deep, deep economic downturn because my politicians never got spending under control.

Gene Tunny  46:58

Yeah, yeah. Very good point. Okay, Dan Mitchell. This has been great. Thanks so much for appearing on the show. I’ve really enjoyed it.

Dan Mitchell  47:05

Well, thanks, Lucky. Thanks for having me on.

Gene Tunny  47:09

rato, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com, or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

47:56

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this or to begin your own podcasting journey. Head on over to obsidian dash productions.com

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business, www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

What’s the Future for Charter Cities after the Honduras ZEDE controversy? w/ Jeffrey Mason, Charter Cities Institute  – EP234

In this episode, we delve into the controversy surrounding the Prospera charter city in Honduras, which has embraced libertarian principles and adopted Bitcoin as legal tender and a unit of account. The city is currently embroiled in a legal battle with the Honduran government. Gene asks Jeffrey Mason, from Charter Cities Institute, what it all means for the future of charter cities. Jeffrey provides some good examples of how charter cities still have a lot of potential, and he talks about projects CCI is involved in in Africa, particularly in Zanzibar. Tune in to gain insights into the intersection of governance, economics, and innovation in the context of charter cities.

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: Jeffrey Mason, Head of Research, Charter Cities Institute 

Jeffrey joined CCI as a Researcher in 2019. His research interests include urban economics, structural transformation, special economic zones, and technology ecosystems. He has worked on policy advisory projects in Nigeria, Tanzania, Zambia, and Honduras, among other countries. Prior to joining the Charter Cities Institute, Jeffrey worked as an MA Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He holds a BA in economics from the University of Maryland and an MA in economics from George Mason University. His writing has been featured in publications including City Journal, Works in Progress, Investment Monitor, Quartz Africa, and The American Mind.

What’s covered in EP234

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • Honduran ZEDEs: zones for employment and economic development. (4:12)
  • Honduran ZEDEs and impacts on local communities. (9:41)
  • Investor-state dispute settlement mechanisms. (15:15)
  • Charter cities and their potential to improve governance and economic growth. (20:37)
  • Charter cities and urban development in Zanzibar. (26:15)
  • Affordable housing development in Zanzibar, Tanzania. (30:56)
  • Urban development and new city projects. (39:27)

Takeaways

  1. The controversy surrounding Prospera in Honduras highlights the risks and uncertainties involved in charter city projects.
  2. The concept of charter cities is evolving, with a growing emphasis on affordability, local engagement, and sustainable development to ensure their long-term success.
  3. Legal and political stability, along with government partnerships, are crucial for the success of charter cities, as demonstrated by the contrasting experiences of Prospera and the Zanzibar project, Fumba Town, that Charter Cities Institute is involved in.

Links relevant to the conversation

Lumo Coffee promotion

Lumo Coffee Discount: Visit Lumo Coffee (lumocoffee.com) and use code EXPLORED20 for a 20% discount until April 30, 2024.

Transcript: What’s the Future for Charter Cities after the Honduras ZEDE controversy? w/ Jeffrey Mason, Charter Cities Institute  – EP234

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Jeff Mason  00:03

When you’re not adding in that governance component, right, it’s essentially it’s a real estate project. And that’s, you know, that’s all well and fine. But if you’re going to be doing a large scale, something that is truly city scale that’s going to be home to 10s, or hundreds of 1000s, or, or maybe even millions. And when that the grandest scale, it actually makes a lot of sense to pair that type of development with some sort of effort to improve governance.

Gene Tunny  00:35

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning into the show. One story that’s caught my attention recently is the controversy over the Prospera charter city in Honduras. It was inspired by libertarian principles and is adopted Bitcoin as legal tender and as a unit of account, but it’s in a big legal dispute with the current Honduran government. I was alerted to this by a report from Ryan Grim at the intercept on juris ratchets up battle with crypto libertarian investors, rejects World Bank caught me talked about this story on his counterpoints YouTube show. It’s a crazy story and I wanted to talk with someone knowledgeable about it. So I reached out to the charter cities Institute. I’ve previously spoken with the head of CCI Curtis Lockhart, and I’m grateful that he recommended I speak with his colleague Jeffrey Mason. Jeff is Head of Research at the charter cities Institute and he really helped clarify the issues for me. Is the Honduran charter city an exceptional case? Or is there a fundamental problem with the charter city model? Jeff helped me figure out what’s going on. And he reminded me that the charter cities Institute is doing things differently. And he talks about a fascinating development on Zanzibar that it’s involved with. There are some more details on CCI as approach to charter cities in the episode that I recorded with Curtis lockout two years ago. So I’ll put a link to that in the show notes, so you can check it out if you’re interested. This episode of economics explored is brought to you by Lumo coffee, which is three times the healthy antioxidants of regular coffee. It’s seriously healthy, organic coffee, where my coffee offers a 20% discount for economics explore listeners until the 30th of April 2020. For details are in the show notes. Right, I would better get into it. I hope you enjoy the episode. Jeffrey Mason from charter cities Institute, welcome to the programme.

Jeff Mason  03:06

Adrian, thanks for having me.

Gene Tunny  03:08

It’s a pleasure. It’s good to reconnect with the charter cities Institute because I had Curtis Lockhart on the show a couple of years ago to talk about charter cities. And it’s certainly been of of interest to me for quite a while that the whole idea of I mean, initially they’ll talk there was talk about special economic zones. And there’s this concept of charter cities came about. And I was reminded of it recently because this has been really crazy news story in Honduras about these so called crypto libertarian investors who have been suing the Honduran government for removing the legislative underpinnings of, of I think it’s Prospera, is it the charter city? That’s on an island in Honduras? And yeah, it’s just as really bizarre story. Are you older? What’s your take? Jeffrey, on what actually went wrong in Honduras?

Jeff Mason  04:12

Sure. It’s yeah, it’s a little a little messy, a little complicated. So maybe a little bit of backstory is probably in order. Some of your listeners may know this story, be familiar with with prosper, and some of the other day some, some may not. So back in the late 2000, around 2009 ish. Paul Romer, who had who was sort of the original guy who came up with the idea of charter cities, he connected with some folks in the Honduran government who had sort of independently been interested in some similar ideas. And they came together passed a law in Honduras that would have essentially created charter cities. That law was repealed because of some some constitutional concerns and then later a new law that rectified some of those concerns was was put through due to some sort of disputes Rome or departed. And then there was sort of some some constitutional disputes about Supreme Court rulings on that law and the previous public government that did come to power and pushed out the other one. Right. It’s it’s it’s kind of messy, but the law as of like 2012 2013. authorising Zetas zones for economic development and employment are in place. A few years went by with not much happening. The government hadn’t hadn’t really taken action to sort of appoint the necessary people to the oversight body. And then I believe 2019 What would become prosperous? Was was established as the first of what is now three Zetas. So prosper, as as some folks may know, it’s on the island of Roatan on the Caribbean side of Honduras. And it’s being developed as this jurisdiction sort of focused on emerging technologies, biomedical innovation, crypto and financial services, and has some really interesting and really novel approaches to governance, in terms of how folks who choose to live or do business there, can sort of select how they’re given options about how they’re regulated. And it’s a really sort of fascinating project, just sort of looking at pushing the frontier of governance. There’s a second set A, that folks, some folks may be familiar with it, it’s not quite as high profile called ciudad and what is on so this one is on the mainland, near the cities of Jalama, in San Pedro Sula, kind of in Honduras is main manufacturing region. So this one is sort of focused on creating very affordable housing, and good jobs in light industry, logistics, manufacturing, that sort of thing. And then there’s a third in the south of the country that’s focused on agriculture, agro processing, greenhouse agriculture, that sort of thing. And so in the last few years, the government’s change change parties, and the government came in was was very, very opposed to the that regime, and had been critical of it of it for years. And so when they came into power, you know, Goal, goal number one for them was was to rollback because that is. And so what they ended up doing was, they eventually pass a repeal of the xFA law. But for it to sort of be fully completed, it needed to be not just passed, but also ratified. And within the sort of legislative calendar of when the initial repeal went through. The repeal was never ratified. So we ended up in this weird sort of legal limbo, where the government is trying to repeal the law, but it’s not quite repealed. And even though the way they’re going about it, is being argued by prosper and others, that it’s in violation of some of these different trade treaties and other things that would have essentially locked the law in place. Even if you wanted to go ahead with the repeal, there would be this sort of much longer, sort of off ramp period and certain sort of investor rights guaranteed and this sort of thing. And so now prosper is suing the government of Honduras and international arbitration for damages. Or they’ve either secured or, or have pledged over $100 million in investment. So that’s that’s obviously quite a big deal. That’s sort of been disrupted. And so now prosper is seeking damages from the Honduran governments. And then earlier this year, as that has sort of developed, the government of Honduras has now said they are going to pull out of the investor state dispute settlement process that’s run by the Royal Bank. So so quite quite a messy tumultuous couple of years, but but the Zetas as they exist now, you know, under quite some some hardship, obviously, for the for the time being, they are continuing, right.

Gene Tunny  09:33

So the zeros themselves are continuing, is that the actual zone so they’re still operational? Right. Okay.

Jeff Mason  09:39

They’re still they’re still doing business. Right. Okay. So

Gene Tunny  09:41

there are a couple of things you’re interested in, following up here. So you’ve got this change of government, and is it the case that it will assist you president is it Castro and was it she just the shoes of the left so as she objected into the Zed A’s because it’s against her government’s general economic philosophy? Or is it because of concerns about impacts on indigenous people? I recall that the United Nations or I saw that the United Nations had some things to say about potential impacts on indigenous communities. Do you know what the what was the problem that the government had with the Zed A’s? Sure.

Jeff Mason  10:23

So there’s, there’s a couple pieces to it. One, I think it is, is partly political, and sort of a matter of philosophy and right, how they, how they feel about free markets and those kinds of things. The concerns about indigenous groups have been raised since the 70s, first came into existence. But to my knowledge, nothing in terms of those groups, or their land or anything like that has has ever actually been sort of touched by by any other three days in any way. And then it also just goes back, I think, to the essentially coup in 2009, that pushed out that party’s previous presidents and sort of long standing issues with the president who who wasn’t charged who had originally champion this that a regime who, right ended up being extradited to the US related to drug trafficking. So there’s, there’s a, there’s a political there’s, there’s a, you know, philosophical difference. And then there’s also some of the politics of it as well. Right.

Gene Tunny  11:32

And so from the government’s perspective, so if I’m sitting in the finance ministry, in Honduras, what am I seeing, am I seeing we’ve got this special economic zone, or Zed A, and we’ve got these foreign coal corporations operating there. And they’re generating income, but we’re not able to tax them, or are there any subsidies? What’s the deal? What the financial arrangements are? What how does it? You know, what’s the what’s the finance ministry seen in Honduras?

Jeff Mason  12:04

Sure. So in that regard, it’s it’s there’s there is a it’s a fairly disconnected system in the sense that these entities are kind of able to do what they want. And in terms of of generating revenue, I think there are there are some some guidelines about about, you know, taxes and that sort of thing. But But generally, they’re they’re kind of able to do what they want. In terms of policy, and there’s not much in the way of it’s not like maybe sort of your what you might think of traditionally with an SEC, where maybe the industrial zone collects some sort of revenues, and they’re sort of a stream of, of transfers. Back to the government. I think the in the case of this, that is I think the sort of more macro level impact is is just more about the economic effect that they can bring to the regions that are located and that’ll have some, some knock on effects. Right.

Gene Tunny  13:04

Okay. But, I mean, so they’ve, they’re pulled out the underpinning, or they’ve ended the legislative support for these days. So they don’t want this to get in, continue. So they want to regulate these areas as if they’re part of Honduras. So they don’t see to them. They don’t think these this Zedd a or these days creating the economic benefits that were originally suggested for them. Do you have any views on that? I mean, is it? How has that? How has prospera performed? Has it lived up to expectations? Sure.

Jeff Mason  13:41

So in terms of prosper? I know there’s I don’t know how much of that right 100 million investment has been fully invested. Right. I know, they actually there are buildings and then properties under construction, there are a number of companies that are registered, operated, doing business there, I think most of those are sort of in the in the FinTech space, or the biotech space. And they, I don’t know, exact numbers of residents, but there is, you know, an active active community there. I know with Verizon, for example. I think especially colleagues were there in the past month, there’s upwards of maybe 100 200 families or people living there something like that. So some employment, some people living there. And I know there’s like I said, the greenhouse and that type of thing, those types of operations and the other and from what I understand locals who are working there have been quite defensive about it. In the sense of, you know, please these are these are good jobs we didn’t have before don’t don’t end this for us.

Gene Tunny  14:49

Yeah, okay. It’s an interesting little development this prosphora so it’s adopted Bitcoin as a unit of account as a currency and the investors and apparently some of them are connected with Peter Thiel. So one of the PayPal founders and a very famous man, very major player in in US business. And they’re suing Honduran, the Honduran government for 11 billion. But now Honduras has pulled out of that world bank tribunal. And I mean, given that 11 billion if I, if I’ve done the numbers, right, that’s about a third of the GDP of Honduras. You could imagine why they would I mean, it’s a it’s a massive, a massive lawsuit. What’s your take on the on the merits of the case? Do you have any thoughts, Jeffery, on whether they, they’re, you know, they have a case to sue Honduras? I mean, I’ve been legally and ethically morally?

Jeff Mason  15:55

Sure. So, you know, disclaimer, not not not an attorney or trade attorney, anything like that. But from some briefs and things that I’ve read, you know, I do think they have some kind of standing. There are some clauses in the original law, talking to talk about what sort of an off ramp procedure could look like, of not being less than 10 years. And then beyond that, right, the the the main, the main treaties that there’s there’s a Kuwait based treaty, that Honduras was party to that that’s part of their legal argument. And there’s also another one called CAFTA. Dr. Which is, since I’m from Central American countries, Dominican Republic, some others that to do with investor protections. So, you know, without without being, you know, a lawyer who focuses on these areas, I would, I would think they do. Does that mean, the full, you know, 11 billion is right, is that justified? I don’t I don’t I don’t have enough expertise in that domain to say, I get the sense that I think would have been probably best for all involved is some kind of negotiated settlements, for for some kind of some sort of agreements, what that could exactly be something that maybe allows this phase to continue in some form, but but allows the government say, you know, we’ve, we’ve rolled this back in some way, you know, I don’t know exactly what that could look like. And now it’s there in Honduras leaving to the arbitration house at the World Bank. I really actually, I’m actually not sure I’ve tried to find this. See, with some articles, I have found an article that actually says, like, what happens to the lawsuit now? So I’m not I’m not actually sure what happens next. I’m sure anybody is.

Gene Tunny  17:52

No, no. I mean, it’s it’s a bold move what they’ve done it. I mean, it’s consistent there is this growing concern worldwide about these investor state? dispute or settlement in dispute mechanisms. So you know, as part of that, that broader movement is pull out, and I see that they’ve had 80 or So economists sign a letter in support, and I’ll have to try and dig that up and see who they are. Yeah, it’s just, this is something I’ve just found out about the last few days. This is, this is quite a crazy story. And then I remember the conversation I had with Curtis, which makes me wonder, like, is this a I guess, you know, being in the charter cities Institute and promoting charter cities? Is this something that is a cause of concern? Does this set your agenda back in terms of providing charter cities?

Jeff Mason  18:48

So I don’t, I don’t really view it as a setback for CCI. And some of the projects were working with. I think Honduras is a useful cautionary tale for these projects. In that it shows I think, the importance of having legal and political stability, if your legal regime that allows a charter city or something like a charter city, is is you know, is only an election away from being repealed at anytime. Right. That’s a pretty that’s a pretty shaky foundation. And I think another A second important lesson is that for these types of projects to succeed, I don’t think it has to be the case that a project necessarily needs to involve the government’s right, I think you could have a fully, fully private project. That’s, that’s great and successful. But I think one of the ways to ensure sort of longer term stability and government buy in is actively partnering with with government in some way and whether that’s the sort of formal public private partnership agreement or for Ruby, it may be something less formal, but The government is still involved in some way. And a lot of the projects that we’re working with, but most of which are in Africa that the vast majority of CCIs work is in Sub Saharan Africa. A lot of those projects in one form or another, are actively working with the government. And so I’m, you know, forget to put put the financials and those kind of things aside for a second, just from a legal regime, legal stability standpoint, I’m much more optimistic about those than I am about, you know, the kind of structure that was built in, in Honduras.

Gene Tunny  20:33

Rod, yeah, we might not ask you about those in a minute. Could you just remind us, please, Jeff, what, what is the difference? So what is the special sauce of the charter city versus what we think of as or when we think of as special economic zones or free trade zones, free ports, etc?

Jeff Mason  20:54

Sure, so there’s a couple pieces. So one, is that the city component matters. So we’re talking about building new cities from from scratch, that can take a number of forms. So some some projects that we’ve seen or observed are sort of what you can describe as a satellite city. You know, there’s somewhere within within the growth path of an existing city. Others are a little bit more true Greenfield. But the idea is given the pace of urbanisation, in Sub Saharan Africa, and places like India, and others, as well, just the sheer number of people who are moving to cities, every year, year on year, adds up really quickly. And so it’s hard for existing cities and their, their economies, their governments to manage that. And so we think there’s, you know, there’s, there’s, there’s a value actual value in capturing some of that urbanisation in new cities, which are better, better equipped to handle rapid expansion. So that’s, that’s the city piece. And then the charter piece, is the idea kind of drawing on this tradition from special economic zones. That, right, if you could just, you know, snap your finger, and, okay, all our institutions work great, our policy is perfect across the whole country. Right, you would do that and or there would be, you know, 15% growth, and everything would be great. But national level reforms are and improving governance, or, you know, they’re, they’re difficult things to do. And so, one of the strategies that special economic zones sort of paved the way with is that you can devolve some level of authority to special jurisdiction over a limited geographic area, we’re okay, we’re willing to relax certain rules or allow certain policies to be determined locally, within this area. And right that that’s kind of the story of the Chinese as the Z’s that pioneer their growth. But zones in some form or another have been tried all over the world. And most are, you know, a legal regime. That’s things like tax incentives, customs clearances, one stop shops, you know, blight or regulatory touch these these kinds of things. But you can take that a step further, and say, Well, look, if you know, let’s, let’s concentrate in this one area, and say, maybe it’s not just here’s a prescribed list of privileges you get for doing business in the zone. But instead, let’s think about empowering that jurisdiction to figure out what policies work best. From the ground under this is really the sort of Chinese story, it wasn’t just right, Beijing said, Okay, we’re gonna have some economic zones, and here’s what they can do. But it was local officials on the ground in figuring out what worked. And right China’s a unique time and he in a unique place, where we think those lessons are broadly applicable. And when we talk to policymakers, most seems to find a pretty intuitive that, yeah, we’ve been doing social economic zones in one form or another to varying degrees of success or failure. But I think I think they appreciate the logic of, okay, we’ve done you know, SCC is generation 1.0. That’s an industrial park. Why shouldn’t we pair that with deeper governance reforms and with, with housing, with with with mixed use, with retail commercial uses, not not just industry. And the thing is, a lot of these new city projects are happening with or without that governance component. When you don’t, when you’re not adding in that governance component, right. It’s essentially it’s a real estate project. And that’s, you know, that’s all well and fine. But if you’re going to be doing us large scale, something that is truly city scale that’s going to be home to 10s, or hundreds of 1000s or maybe even millions, even at the ground. Under scale, it actually makes a lot of sense to pair that type of development with with some sort of effort to improve governance. And so while a lot of the projects are, you know, you might get a push point towards an ideal, okay, here’s, here’s what the ideal charter city could look like. And it might have authority over, you know, these these 15 things. Right, in practice, most of the projects that we are either actively working with or know of, are trying to get authority over certain things, or maybe scale over time. Okay, well, we’ll start with revising the economic zone law to include a few more things. And, you know, we can we can try to revise that and continually revise that and, and scale it up and change those those regulations over time. So we’re seeing a push now to, you know, when zoning laws are being reformed, pushing them in the direction of, you know, recognise that there, there’s an urban component here, and pushing the city projects in the direction of, you know, okay, there’s governance is actually important for the success of this project. And so we’re trying to impress that the importance of that synthesis on on governments and and the projects that we we interact with raw

Gene Tunny  26:13

add, okay. Yeah, I mean, it’s great idea. I mean, I think it’s, it could promote experiments in design of cities, different policy settings, which is great. What do you mean by governance? Exactly, you’re talking about, we want to make sure it’s democratic, is transparent. There’s accountability, there’s no corruption? Is that the sort of thing you’re talking about? So

Jeff Mason  26:36

yeah, I think part of it is the sort of governance in terms of the day to day functioning, how well does does you know a particular officer or ministry? How well does that actually function at executing its mission? And then I think there’s also the actual literal policy dimension of what what is the policy? What would what a more optimal policy look like?

Gene Tunny  27:02

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  27:08

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with adept economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice. We can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world. You can get in touch via our website, www dot adapt economics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  27:37

Now back to the show. Yes, to sort of wrap this up. What are some of the charter cities or the the examples of this in practice around the world that that CCI or you yourself are involved in?

Jeff Mason  27:57

Sure. So the the project that we’re spending most of our time on right now, at CCI, is located in Zanzibar. Tanzania, so there’s a project there called Simba town. So this is a new development. It’s it’s being created by a developer called CPS, sort of south of what’s called Stone Town. It’s kind of the main main main city in Zanzibar. So we were introduced to them a few years ago, there started out and started out as a residential development, they’ve they built about 600 700 units. But they’re looking to expand their the jurisdiction the area under under their control to build this out into something that’s more like a city. And so we’re working with them on plans for the expansion of from the town. And that includes bringing the African School of Economics, which is sort of one of the premier African universities, was founded by one of TCAS board members, Leonard Washington, he says he’s a Princeton Professor of Economics, found that in his State of Guinean, and so they’re looking to expand out of West Africa, they have a couple campuses, and in between Cote d’Ivoire, and Nigeria, and they want to expand to East Africa. And so we’re working with the photon and with ASC to bring them and their first East African campus to Zanzibar. So helping get that set up curriculum development. We’re working on establishing an African urban lab there, which is supposed to be sort of a research and teaching hospital, if you will, for present and future urban practitioners and, and policymakers in Africa and trying to bring the skills and the people needed to sort of build a real hub for talent in East Africa, independently of ASC, IIT, Madras, sort of India’s MIT also set up a campus Just down the road from from Buster, there’s sort of real potential here to build a hub of of talented, talented people and build out an ecosystem in technology and services will also bring the investment. Investment needed in other areas like tourism, blue economy, industry, light industry, manufacturing these these kinds of things. Right. And so we’re working, working with them, and also with the the investment promotion authority there. Tomba is currently in sec, it’s one of these sort of fairly basic regimes. And so we’re looking at ways in which FUBA town can be in terms of of its of its legal powers can be scaled up over time to create an actual proper municipal government, that this that’s something in directionally, like a charter city, and then scale that up over time.

Gene Tunny  30:56

Right. And at what stage is the development? It sounds like there’s some development there already. Do you know the population? Is there a business centre of CBD? Yeah,

Jeff Mason  31:06

so it’s it’s a date, they’ve completed about 600 units, some of which are occupied, some of which are for sale, as well as some some restaurants, shops, office space, that kind of thing. But some of our staff have have relocated there, as well. So I think it’s an A lot, a lot of what’s been built so far is residential. In the next phase, I think a lot of that, including the ASE campus will will be more of that. Office commercial retail type space to support the expansion. Right.

Gene Tunny  31:44

And you know, has it been pitched dad? Is it? Is it being pitched it? Is it primarily of local or regional interest? Or is it being pitched to? I don’t know crypto bros or digital nomads worldwide? I don’t know. But I know that this is something that does appeal to the the the libertarians, the people who who are excited about crypto, I wasn’t using that pejoratively. I was just using that as a term that seems to be the popular term now. So yeah, they’re getting interest from foreign investors from major corporations. Do you have any idea who’s interested in this? Sure.

Jeff Mason  32:26

So I actually just had a conversation for CCI zone podcasts with the head of the architecture firm responsible for a lot of what’s being built and filmed when we talked about part of the strategy. So initially, a lot of the what’s being built is at a price point that’s more for wealthy Tanzanians. And then folks abroad are interested. But they want to use that investment to then build as part of this expansion, much more affordable, much more affordable housing, so that it becomes viable for the local population to buy in. And right, you can’t really actually expand one of these types of projects to to any kind of meaningful scale, if you’re not targeting locals, and making it affordable for locals and creating jobs that are accessible to locals. So obviously, the focus is multifaceted. But they’re very keen on figuring out, you know, what can we do in terms of creating, actually creating, you know, a proper mortgage market, these kind of things doesn’t really exist in a meaningful way. They’re, how can we create the financial tools, also from a construction engineering materials side, but looking at all facets of what can we do to drive drive the price point of housing down, and some of our partners on other city projects have done a really great job elsewhere of figuring out how to do that one of our partners in Malawi called Small Farm cities, they’ve basically been able to drive the house, the price, the price point for new housing down to where someone who’s making a family that’s making 7500 US dollars a month can afford a decent home and actually have a mortgage that they can afford that’s titled it’s it’s it’s it’s it’s Douse them with some property rights, they actually own it. It’s not in formal, like most housing in Africa. So there’s a lot of people working on this question of how do you how do you bring affordability to these projects? And I think that’s because I think it’s important, especially because that’s one of the criticisms and often rightfully so, that gets levied. At a lot of these a lot of these projects, right? There’s just these, you know, glossy shiny renderings and you know, that’s all well and good, but there’s no actuals and a lot of these projects there’s there’s no real viable strategy behind Creating a functional economy that makes sense. And in that location, folks, I think of, you know, a Colin was going to do a city where the currency was going to be a coin. And right, yeah, sure you can have whatever opinions you want about that. At I think it was Senegal, but Right, that’s that’s not what that’s not what the average person in Senegal needs or can really take advantage of. So there’s a real deliberate effort here to try to solve this problem. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  35:34

yeah. That what you mentioned about Malawi is, is interesting. Do you know that off the top of your head, what the name of that development is?

Jeff Mason  35:42

Yeah, so it’s a company called Small Farm city, small farm, and it’s, and it’s run by one of CCI advisors, John Van and Whoville so they have a, their first community was was for about 100 people, and sort of focused on greenhouse agriculture, fish farming, that kind of thing. And now they’re looking to expand. They have, they’re starting construction on development for 1000 plus people adjacent to a new titanium mine that’s opening. And they’re going to continue with some of that greenhouse that agriculture. But they also want to start operating in some of the input industries input sectors that’ll feed into that, that mining business as well, in a way that’s modular and scalable so that they can go from, you know, 1000 100 person starter to this 1000. Person city started that they’re working on to give it 10,000 and higher as they grow. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  36:37

that’s impressive that that unit cost you mentioned for housing. That’s extraordinary. We need that in Australia. I mean, we’ve got a housing crisis. We need it in DC. I mentioned you do. Okay. Although there are a couple other things. Yeah. This Boombah towns fascinating. And Zanzibar is an island. So it’s a, you know, got a storied history. It’s got a really rich history. What currency are they using? Do you know, in Colombia town?

Jeff Mason  37:09

I think just that the Tanzanian shilling raw there, they have a lot of it’s actually a pretty unique jurisdiction for this type of project in that the government of Zanzibar has a pretty significant, not totally but a significant degree of autonomy within the broader union. So in that regard, it’s actually a kind of almost ideal location from from a legal regime point of view to pilot one of these projects. Gotcha.

Gene Tunny  37:34

And what about the tax, right? So if I go, so if I go to a former town, and I, I pay less tax than if I’m elsewhere, on Zanzibar, or elsewhere in Tanzania? So

Jeff Mason  37:47

I think under the current zoning regime, I think it would just be the standard income tax, I don’t think, if I remember correctly, income taxes isn’t part of that. As it currently exists, it’s kind of an industrial park type model. So you would just be paying regular at the moment, regular Zanzibari. And intensity and taxes, Rod, okay.

Gene Tunny  38:09

But there are other benefits that so in your view, there are other benefits that would make this attractive to investors and to people to locate there other than taxes? Yeah, so

Jeff Mason  38:20

Well, I think on on the point about taxes and governance, I think that that’s part of what we’re working on over the last couple of years months is going to the Investment Promotion Authority, and to the government and saying, you know, you have, you know, this this, this, this law that governs Economic Zones, here are some changes that you think could be think could make this much stronger regime, and here’s how it could be paired with the investment that’s being made in from the town. And so things, you know, a starting point could be things like visas, taxes, sort of functions of municipal government, these these sorts of things. And then presumably, over time, you know, if a government, you know, is agreeable, right, that you could scale that up to, you know, other different regulatory domains, that kind of thing. But yeah, taxes for all these projects, things like taxes, local municipal services, visas, business registration, these sort of very bedrock issues are a good place to start for a sort of iterative, legal regime that changes over time

Gene Tunny  39:27

raw. And in your view. You mentioned this before you think that this is a there’s a stable government or there’s a or you can trust the the legal system there because I mean, one of the risks, of course, and you alluded to this before is that, you know, policies can change and, and particularly in if you’ve got foreign investment, and it’s very easy for local demagogues to you know, accuse the foreign investors of exploitation and then we have expert appropriation we have governments taking over the foreign investment. I mean, that’s happened throughout history. It’s just such a it’s it’s a recurring thing. So yeah, but but in your view is this this is a project where that risk is pretty minimal.

Jeff Mason  40:16

Yeah, that’s that’s something that we’re, we’re particularly concerned about. And I think folks in government there can look around in the neighbourhood. Kenya has a number of new city projects, folks may have heard of Tatu city. It’s the flagship projects of Endeavour, which is Africa’s largest urban developer, built on the outskirts of Nairobi. And so there, there’s every other week, they’re making a new invest new announcement about some some new firm that’s, that’s investing there. So I think there’s positive examples in the neighbourhood. To point to as well,

Gene Tunny  40:54

terrific, well, Jeff has been fascinating. I’ve learned a lot. I’m going to look into this small farms, cities and also into the, in the former town, and yeah, learn a bit more about it. Here, particularly how they’re constructing housing. So cheap. I mean, a part of it’s, of course, going to be labour costs, but there’s probably some other things that they’re doing much more efficiently relative to practices elsewhere. So I’m definitely going to look at that. Anything else before we wrap up?

Jeff Mason  41:28

Thanks for having me on. And yeah, I encourage folks to check out and check out these projects. What they’re doing is fascinating. And just to learn more about the sort of broader charter cities in new cities ecosystem, there’s a lot of really dynamic, interesting projects that often fly under the radar that we’re trying to share more about. Today, please take take some time to explore. Absolutely.

Gene Tunny  41:51

And definitely check out shadow cities Institute’s work, I’ll put a link in the show notes, and you’ve got a podcast up Jeff, your charter cities Institute’s got a podcast.

Jeff Mason  42:00

Yeah, we do. Try to we provide weekly, with entrepreneurs, scholars, other folks who are working broadly on issues of city’s economic development, and the like. And also just briefly mentioned, in the last year, we launched a project called the new cities map. So this has every masterplan city in the world built since 1945, mapped with with detailed information about each entry. So if you want to learn more about charter cities and new city projects, that might be a great place for folks to start grind.

Gene Tunny  42:36

I’m gonna have to check that out. That sounds interesting. Yeah, definitely. Because we’ve got, well, one of the big ones in in well, I guess it’s in our region, although it’s still, you know, seven hour or eight hour flight away is in Indonesia. They’re building a new capital city and Oh, I forgot, is it is it on Borneo? Or maybe I got the island wrong. But yeah, building. Yeah,

Jeff Mason  43:00

I think I think you’re right. Yeah, it’s, yeah, that

Gene Tunny  43:03

looks pretty extraordinary. So yeah, I’ll definitely check out the new cities map. Right. Oh, very good. Jeffrey Mason from charter cities institute. Thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed the conversation. And yeah, I really learned a lot. So yeah, again, thanks and keep up the good work. Thanks, you. Appreciate ya rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting outlets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

44:10

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this or to begin your own podcasting journey. Head on over to obsidian-productions.com

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

America’s Retirement Crisis: The Pressing Need to Address Social Security’s Financial Woes – EP233

Michael Johnston, CFA of WealthChannel and show host Gene Tunny dissect the pressing issues facing the US Social Security system. Amid predictions of future insolvency, they discuss the demographic trends, financial realities, and policy adjustments needed to safeguard retirement incomes for generations to come.

Please get in touch with us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: Michael Johnston, CFA

Michael Johnston, CFA is a financial industry veteran with a passion for improving outcomes for retail investors.

Following stints in corporate finance and investment banking, Michael founded ETF Database (ETFdb) and grew it into the largest independent media property covering exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Under Michael’s leadership, the company achieved a commanding position within the ETF industry and played a key role in the “low cost revolution” that saw hundreds of billions of dollars flow from expensive mutual funds to low cost ETFs.

ETFdb is now a part of TSX Group, a publicly-traded financial services company that operates the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Michael co-founded WealthChannel with a mission of helping investors achieve financial independence by radically simplifying retirement planning and investing. Michael is responsible for WealthChannel’s content and education initiatives, including its flagship WealthChannel Academy.

Michael graduated from the University of Notre Dame with a degree in finance, and now resides in Oregon with his wife and son. He is active in his community as a member of the Board of Directors of the Lane Regional Air Protection Agency (LRAPA) and a volunteer at Hosea Youth Services.

What’s covered in EP233

  • [00:02:59] Sustainability of Social Security.
  • [00:03:52] Retirement crisis in America.
  • [00:09:43] Americans living longer.
  • [00:13:25] Social Security trust fund depletion.
  • [00:17:38] Social Security sustainability.
  • [00:18:59] Social Security Funding Solutions.
  • [00:24:36] Frankenstein policy solutions.
  • [00:27:50] Immigration and Social Security.
  • [00:30:46] Retirement age and social security.
  • [00:35:54] Retirement savings statistics.
  • [00:38:19] Retirement and financial literacy.
  • [00:41:26] Retirement savings options in the States.
  • [00:45:02] Social Security explained.
  • [00:50:26] Social Security and retirement accounts.

Takeaways

  1. Social Security Sustainability: The Social Security program in the US faces sustainability challenges due to changing demographics and financial dynamics.
  2. Retirement Crisis: There is a retirement crisis in the US, with nearly half of Americans having no retirement savings and relying heavily on Social Security for income in retirement.
  3. Potential Solutions: Various solutions were discussed, including raising the retirement age, adjusting cost-of-living adjustments, and increasing taxes to shore up the system.
  4. Individual Retirement Accounts: The US offers tax-effective retirement savings options like 401(k)s and Roth IRAs, but many Americans are not effectively using these tools.

Comparison with Other Countries: The discussion highlighted differences in retirement systems between the US and countries like Australia, where superannuation accounts play a significant role in retirement planning.

Links relevant to the conversation

Lumo Coffee promotion

Lumo Coffee Discount: Visit Lumo Coffee (lumocoffee.com) and use code EXPLORED20 for a 20% discount until April 30, 2024.

Transcript: America’s Retirement Crisis: The Pressing Need to Address Social Security’s Financial Woes – EP233

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Michael Johnston  00:04

It seems as if the entire system is going to collapse, it’s still gonna be you know, it’s still gonna be generating. Like I said, 2033 will be the best year ever in terms of inflows into Social Security. The problem is that the outflows are also going to be at their their highest level ever.

Gene Tunny  00:24

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning into the show. My guest this episode is Michael Johnston, who has a strong track record and corporate finance and investment banking. Michael co founder at ETF database and latent wealth channel. At wealth channel he has dedicated himself to demystifying Retirement Planning and Investment. In this episode, we dive deep into the intricacies of the US retirement income system, focusing on the Social Security programmes sustainability challenges. Michael sheds light on the pressing issues confronting this critical component of American retirement planning, and explores potential pathways to ensure its viability for future generations. This episode of Economics Explored is brought to you by Lumo coffee, which has three times the healthy antioxidants of regular coffee Lumo coffee offers a 20% discount for economics explored listeners until the 30th of April 2020. For details are in the shownotes, you check out Lumo seriously healthy organic coffee at Lumocoffee.com. Righto, we’d better get into it. I hope you enjoy the episode. Michael Johnson from wealth channel, welcome to the programme. Hey, great

Michael Johnston  02:08

to be with you.

Gene Tunny  02:09

Excellent. Michael, looking forward to chatting with you today. I know that you’ve been doing a lot of thinking about the retirement income system in the US, and particularly the Social Security system. So I mean, we’re hearing all sorts of concerns about sustainability of that scheme. What it all, you know what the implications are? So, to start off with, I’d like to ask, what do you see as the the big issue with Social Security in the US? What’s the state of the retirement income system?

Michael Johnston  02:48

Yeah, great question. So to jump right into it, the state of it is it will not exist in its current form, and 10 years, it cannot. And that’s, that’s not a political statement. It’s just a mathematical one, like the way that the numbers work. And I’m sure we’re gonna dive into this. It cannot exist, the way that it’s existed for the last 40 or 50 years, something’s got to change. And something pretty significant has to change, because the math of it just just no longer works. And we can dive into why why it no longer works. And this is a big issue, because here in the US, I mean, we have we have a retirement crisis, people don’t have enough money for retirement. So Social Security becomes a big piece of that. And it’s I think it’s similar around the world to varying degrees, what extent this is a crisis. But here in the US, you know, depending on which numbers you use, in which year in which survey, it’s close to half of folks have no money saved for retirement, they just have nothing saved. Wrong. And that’s, you know, I don’t need to explain why that’s bad. But as folks, you know, sometimes retirement isn’t isn’t voluntary, you something becomes you get an injury, you lose your mental acuity, you can no longer work. So I mean, obviously, that’s, that’s, you know, in my mind, it’s a crisis. It’s a crisis that no one’s talking about is that no one’s prepared for retirement anymore.

Gene Tunny  04:05

So that means that half of Americans retiring, yeah, they’re going to be solely reliant on the Social Security check from, from the US government. Yeah,

Michael Johnston  04:16

that’s right. It’s Social Security. And this is why it’s so important is because they don’t have any retirement savings of their own, I should have, I should have qualified that they didn’t have retirement savings of their own or they don’t have nearly enough. So when when they do retire, for whatever reason, and at whatever age, they are, to your point there for a lot of folks, Social Security is a primary or the primary source of income in retirement. And it’s kind of a rule of thumb. You know, I always tell folks, you know, it’s not it’s not designed to replace your pre retirement income. It is designed to replace a portion of it, but it’s typically 25 to 35% of your pre retirement income that it’s designed to replace. So it’s a big piece, you know, and a lot of folks You know, even folks who have been doing their own saving, who have been doing all the right things, a lot of those folks are still counting on Social Security to be a big piece of their retirement puzzle. So, so that’s why this is why this is so critical here in the US is because it’s this, it’s a huge component. It’s a huge part of most people’s retirement plans. For some people, it’s the only part of it essentially. So to hear that it’s in jeopardy here that it’s it’s not on sound, financial footing or something needs to change. It’s going to impact literally hundreds of millions of people. And it’s their, you know, their livelihood, the way that a lot of them are going to put food on the table in what should be their golden years. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  05:37

And so how does it work? So you make, is it FICA contributions through your lifetime? Is everyone covered by it? How does it actually work in practice? Yeah, so

Michael Johnston  05:49

essentially, what happens is, every American has, for each paycheck, there’s there’s deductions from their paychecks, so they have their gross pay what they make before any deductions, one of the deductions is something called FICA, the Federal Insurance Contributions Act. Long story short, every American has 6.2% of their gross wages withheld as as a Social Security tax. And then their employer matches that their employer chips in another 6.2%. So 12.4% of your gross wages is put into Social Security on your behalf each year. And then once you hit a just kind of some, some nuances, and then some complex formulas and some options, so essentially, you pay into it during your working years. And then you have the option starting at age 62, you can push it back as late as age 70. If you want the formula switches and you start withdrawing from the system. And again, there’s a formula for what you can expect to get each month, it’s based on how much you put in. So the more you make, the more you put in, the more you can expect to receive, there is a what I call a progressive formula applied, meaning that essentially, the less you make, the greater percentage of your income is going to be covered. But yeah, at a high level, you pay into it during your working years. And then somewhere between age 62 and 70, the tables turn and you start pulling out from the system. And for a long time, this was great, because there were more more money flowing into the system, more money flowing into Social Security in the form of these payroll taxes, the FICA, payroll tax that you mentioned, there’s more money flowing in from that than there was going out to beneficiaries. So essentially, for the last several decades, we’ve had this surplus, and we built up this nice rainy day fund, what I like to call it this rainy day fund. But now the rainy day has come. And it’s going to be around for a while, unfortunately. So the tables have kind of turned here. And unfortunately, now the outflows are starting to outpace the inflows by by quite a bit, actually.

Gene Tunny  07:53

And that’s because the we had the big baby boomer cohort after the war, and they made a lot of contributions, but now they’re going to be relying on Social Security. So I mean, what happens? So if you don’t work? I mean, it’s, I guess most people will work to some extent, over their lifetime, but there will be some who, who have limited work history, or won’t or there’ll be in? I don’t know, you know, gig work or informal work. So are they covered as well, or they’re not covered?

Michael Johnston  08:29

Yeah, it’s, it’s a great question. So kind of to two parts of that. So if you don’t, where there is a minimum work requirement, you said, you have to work for 40 quarters, or for 10 years, you have to pay into it to be eligible. But that is that essentially has to be any above the table form of work. So if you’re doing gig work, you’re still paying into this. If you’re self employed, you’re still paying into this, you’re just paying the employee and the employer piece of it. So yes, there is a minimum requirement that you or your spouse has to work for, has to work for 10 quarters to be eligible. But you know, even if you’re self employed, or it’s gig work, or it’s it’s hourly work, you’re still paying into it. It’s regardless of your income level. It’s kind of different from our income tax system here. So so it’s, you know, it affects the vast majority of people, the vast majority of people are eligible for Social Security. They’ve done the minimum requirements that met the work requirements paid into it enough, worked long enough to be eligible for these benefits. And then I just want to go back quickly, quickly, gene is something you mentioned about, well, what’s what’s kind of happened here, like why have these tables turned? And there’s a couple things and one of them’s one of them is a great thing is that in America, people are living longer like they are around much of the world and that’s fantastic. Right? The life expectancy has has gone up quite a bit over the last 50 years more so for women and for men, but for both women are living a lot longer men are living quite a bit longer. And that’s that’s wonderful, right but From a fiscal perspective, that means that they’re collecting benefits for longer, you know, five years of life expectancy means another 60 monthly payments of Social Security. So that kind of threw a wrench into some of the plans. And then as you mentioned, people having fewer kids back in the 1960s, the average woman here was having something like 3.6 Kids, essentially fallen in half. And that’s just a massive, massive decline. And I know that similar things are happening around the world, some places more acutely than in America, some places less acutely, but similar issues playing out all over the place. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  10:34

yeah, exactly. So just thinking about this. So this dates back to FDR, doesn’t it to the days of the New Deal, and they set up a trust fund to to fund this, the Social Security benefits? I mean, I guess, you know, maybe there was some modelling done back in the 30s. Whenever they said it, set it up the actuarial modelling you need, but I mean, the issue is the issue that there’s an act of Congress, which sets out the entitlements, to Social Security, what you’ll get paid, but that doesn’t bear a close connection with, you know, the actual financial health of this game. Is that the issue?

Michael Johnston  11:15

Yeah, so the, I mean, this year, as of this programme, kind of, it kind of stands alone, and it has one source of income. It’s this, this payroll tax, that we talked about this FICA, the 6.2%, that the employee pays and the 6.2% that the employer pays. So it has essentially one source of income. And that source of income is dependent, essentially, on how many people are working, how many people are entering the workforce and staying in the workforce? So it’s, you know, there’s not, we can talk about this a little bit more, there’s a few levers you can pull there, but it’s essentially very dependent on how many people are working, and how much are they paying into the system. And that has been, I think, under it’s been less than what was initially projected, or was kind of projected a long time ago, for the reasons, for one of the reasons we talked about starting in, you know, in the mid 1980s, like in the mid 1980s, the birth rate had fallen quite a bit because similar to now inflation was really high interest rates were really high, it was not a great time to be having kids from a financial perspective. And so the birth rate had fallen, and now you fast forward. From there 2030 years, there weren’t enough babies born 20 years ago that are now entering that are now entering into the workforce. So, you know, that’s the issue is that there’s there’s not enough. But essentially, it’s kind of coming at it from both sides. There’s there’s more beneficiaries than were anticipated, because people are living longer. And I want to emphasise again, that’s a great thing. And on the other side of it, there’s not enough people who are now just coming into the workforce who are able to essentially pay into the system through this payroll tax. So that’s the issue is that those those two things again, for a long time, it was kind of the reverse, there was more money coming in and there was going out. And unfortunately, now, now it’s it’s flipped.

Gene Tunny  13:05

Yeah. And do you know, the and what are the projections? So like, it’s got a there’s a balance, and you’re saying that the outflows are exceeding the the inflows and so therefore the balance is going to be running down? Do you know what the roughly what the current balance is? And when it’s projected to get to? to zero?

Michael Johnston  13:24

Yeah, so it’s, you know, it’s been for the last 4050 years, there’s been, like I said, this the surplus, and we’ve done all the right things, right, we set it into this trust fund into this rainy day fund. Because that’s, that’s what you should do in that situation is exactly what you should do. So let’s see, I’m pulling up the reserves here. And it’s almost peaked out at almost $3 trillion. We had in this rainy day fund that was built up over the course of 4050 years of these these surpluses, the problem is now this has just flipped within the last couple of years. And we’re depleting that that $3 trillion at a pretty incredible pace. So it’s going to run out somewhere around 2033 2034, based on the current projections, so less than a decade. So I mean, you could call that good news or bad news, right? We kind of see this calming theory, we’ve got time to do something about it. It’s not going to happen tomorrow or next year. We’ve got time. But it’s pretty incredible that, again, just the rate at which this has been depleted, considering that it was built up over many, many decades. And this just slipped by the way within the last couple of years was the first time we had more money going out than coming in. But it’s it’s hundreds of billions of dollars a year that it’s going to be about 150 billion this year that we deplete, and that number is only going to go up so we’ve got this massive rainy day fund, but unfortunately, it’s just been depleted very, very quickly.

Gene Tunny  14:51

Yeah. And Michael would you know what’s, what would actually happen is it if it did run out of money with the Treasury So you have to inject funds into it? Or would, or would it just be? Oh, well, we’ll just got to make do with what we’ve got. I mean, do you have any thoughts on what? what would actually happen in that case? If it didn’t have enough money?

Michael Johnston  15:13

Yeah, it’s, it’s a great, it’s a great question. So there’s, there’s kind of a couple of ways to, to answer that question. I guess I’m not actually sure gene statutorily, or, or, you know, mechanically, what would happen if, if nothing else changed, and we hit that point. So, you know, a lot of people have this misconception that Social Security is going bankrupt, and it’s not going to be around, you’re not going to get anything from it. So that’s partially true. But it’s actually this, it’s this trust fund, more specifically, that is going bankrupt. So in 2033, I said that this trust fund is going to run out of money in 2033, Social Security is gonna have more money than ever before coming in. The problem is, it’s also going to have more money than going out. Yeah, right. Yeah. So this this trust fund right now that we’re dipping into, that’s only covering a portion of the benefits, the lion’s share of the benefits are still coming in each year from these payroll taxes. So that’s a misconception that a lot of people have a lot of really smart people have, you know, part of it’s due to these these fear mongering headlines, you see, Social Security is going bankrupt. Yeah. Can I get your benefits anymore? So So yes, it’s, it’s, it’s certainly not on financial flooding, like I said, it’s not going to exist in its current form a decade from now something needs to change, but it’s not as if it’s, it’s not as if the entire system is going to collapse, it’s still gonna be you know, it’s still gonna be generating, like I said, 2033 will be the best year ever, in terms of inflows into Social Security. The problem is that the outflows are also going to be are also going to be at their their highest level ever. So. So as far as what would happen, well, like something’s gotta give, right, we’ve got to either get more money into the system, or we’ve got to cut benefits and stop spending less essentially, the only expenses is benefit payments to retirees. So there’s actually there’s a lot of different levers that that could be pulled there, at a high level, you’ve either got to raise taxes and bring in more money, or you cut the cut the benefit payments, but it wouldn’t be cutting it by 100%. It would be cutting it by 10 to 20%, essentially. But that’s again, I don’t want to minimise that that’s a big deal for a lot of people who have been counting on this, and they’ve been paying in each month each week, whatever it is, and kind of counting on having this in their retirement all of a sudden tell them actually we’re going to cut it by 20%. Put a lot of people on a pretty tough situation. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  17:38

yeah. I mean, it sounds. Yeah, politically. I mean, it sounds like it’d be very difficult to do that. And I know that this is an issue in the it’s been an issue in the political debates. And one of the I think, saga and Jerry made this point on the breaking points channel, he said that, you know, this was one of the reasons that Trump was popular with a lot of people in middle America, because in 2016, he came out and said, I actually support social security, and I won’t cut those benefits. I think it’d be very challenging to do that. Would you ever feel for how much the contributions would have to increase Michael to actually make put it on a sustainable footing?

Michael Johnston  18:17

Yeah, it’s a it’s a great question. So yeah, I think that Well, first of all, you’re absolutely right, that this is a couple of ways to look at this, that if you want to, if you want to look at his glass half full, there’s a lot of ways to fix this, right? There’s actually kind of a lot of levers you can pull, and we’ll talk more about those. The bad news is they’re all terrible options, like they’re going to they’re going to really anger, one group of people or another. Like there’s no good options here. There’s no easy fix. And politicians generally like to stay away from from problems that have no easy fix, it’s kind of guaranteed to piss off someone in one way or another. They like to stay away from those for as long as possible. So I’d expect this Ken to kind of get to kind of get kicked down the road. Now towards kind of more specifically answer your second question there. If we were to say, you know, if we were to say, Okay, we can’t cut benefits, that’s, that’s off the table. And I tend to think that’s the case because that would upset retirees who are counting on this. And in the US one thing retirees do pretty consistently, one thing they’re pretty good at is they show up on election day. And the candidate who says, Hey, I’m cutting your benefits by 20%. Like, I just don’t think that’s practically viably an option. I don’t know maybe I can be proven wrong. I don’t have a great track record of predicting political outcomes. But that just sounds like you generally don’t get elected here. And I think in most places by kind of angry and or upsetting the retirees. So that kind of puts you to the other side of the equation. Well, if we’re if we’re not going to cut benefits, if we’re not going to slash benefits, how much do we have to increase taxes? So the estimates that I’ve seen are I’d have to go About 12.4%. So again, right now that’s 6.2% coming from employees, their employers match that. So you get to 12.4. I’ve seen estimates that if we increase that to 16%, so presumably eight and eight, that would shore this up for 75 years or so. Now, that’s I think that’s, that’s a big ask to to tell people in this current environment, when when inflation has already taken a huge bite out of their paycheck, you know, hey, by the way, we’re going to take another, we’re going to take another 2% out of your paycheck, and by the way, employers, your payroll cost just went out by it’s a lot more than 2%. Because it’s, it’s, you know, instead of paying 6%, they’re paying, they’re paying 8% here. So, I mean, that’s a tough sell to right. So you kind of say, retirees, I’m not going to cut your Social Security, that’s one way of hearing that message. The other way is, well, the only other option then is to increase taxes. So right to kind of to two bad options there, at least in my mind, those are our two bad options that I think would be difficult sells politically to different groups of people for different reasons. But but still tough sells politically. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  21:11

And so these contribution taxes are these payroll taxes, they’re the same, regardless of the person’s income, is that right? And in terms of the rate, there’s no, there’s not a progressive rate at all?

Michael Johnston  21:24

Correct. It’s not a progressive rate. So so it kind of starts at your first dollar and it goes up. So there is actually kind of the opposite of that there is a cap on it. So I think for for this year, it changes each year, I believe that only your first it’s about $168,000, you pay this 6.2%. And then after that, it drops to zero. So only the first bout $168,000 of income is subject to the Social Security taxes. So I think you’ve touched on here, you’ve kind of got the two extreme options, you raise taxes to 16%, you slash benefits by 20%. Those are like the two easy extreme options. And then you get into kind of all these little things you can do around the edges that kind of nibble away at this. And you just you just touched on one of them with that last question. That’s one of the things you can do, you can say, okay, it’s no longer only your first $168,000 Look, bump that up, it’s the first $250,000 Or it’s the first 200,000 Or you know, you can move that up and down, you take the first million dollars in social in, in your, your income is going to be subject to Social Security taxes, and you kind of start nibbling away a little bit at the edges. It’s not quite as big of a lever to pull as just saying, we’re going to increase the tax rate to 16%. But I don’t know, I think personally, my opinion here. I think that’s a lot more palatable politically to say we’re going to make because it kind of targets high earners, right. So we’re going to say, we’re going to raise this this limit from 168 to 250. It’s going to bring in a little bit more money, like yes, it’s a tax increase. But it’s it’s only really affecting people who make more than $168,000 a year. So then you kind of start getting into these, like I said, these little things that they kind of chip away at the problem. They don’t they don’t fix it in one fell swoop. But you kind of start to nibble away at it. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  23:16

I’m wondering, I’m wondering, too, is whether it’s a bit technical. I could I might, I can look it up later. I’m just wondering, has that 100? And was 168,000. Has that been indexed to inflation? Or does it get regularly adjusted for inflation? It

Michael Johnston  23:31

is, yeah, it’s been indexed for inflation. So it is it is going up, you know, which I think makes it a little bit harder to it’d be easier to sell if it had gone up 20 years, right. And it was at this level that was last set and 9090 or something, but it has gone up, which I think makes it you know, a little bit of a harder sell. But I still think that’s probably one of the least one of the least controversial ways to do this. Or it’s going to upset the the fewest number of people here. And I think there’s some other options too. And maybe we can talk about the like, I think there’s other ways that you kind of, I call it you kind of Frankenstein together a solution. You don’t you don’t take this drastic action of slashing benefits or this really visible significant tax hike. But you can kind of I think string together a few of these things that kind of maybe start having that effect.

Gene Tunny  24:19

Yeah, yeah. Well, I mean, I think in a lot of the, the policy outcomes you see, or the you know, the attempted solutions are Frankenstein solutions in a way. So yeah, I’d be interested in your thoughts on that marketplace.

Michael Johnston  24:35

Yeah, so I think you know, one of the things you can do is you can increase the retirement age. So right now in the US, we say that the full retirement age is 67 years old. So people are living longer. I mean, you could say, well, you’re not going to start getting your benefits at 67. Now we’re going to bump that up to 68 or 69 or 70. And we’ve actually done this before like the the starting age for Social Security used to be 65. And then it went up to 66. And now we’re kind of gradually phasing it up to 67. So, you know, that’s, that’s one of those things that again, kind of kind of nibbling around the edges. And it means that you kind of this is on the other side of the equation. Now, on the benefit side of the equation, that means, well, next year is justice, security’s not gonna have to pay out to 67 year old, you got to wait till you’re 68 6970. I think that that kind of chips away at it a little bit, you could also tinker with. So to your point, you asked about indexing for inflation. So Social Security benefits go up each year, they get adjusted a cola adjustment, a cost of living adjustment, so those benefits go up each year to account for inflation. So you can tinker with that a little bit. And that’s effective, like, it’s the same thing as cutting the benefit, like you’re effectively cutting the benefit, right, because you’re gonna have less of a cost of living adjustments. So it’s it, but I think it’s my point, I guess is I think it’s more palatable. Even if the the bottom line effect is the exact same, you’re effectively cutting benefits to say, we’re going to rein in those cost of living adjustments every year, we’re going to do them a little bit less than the general rate of inflation, and we’re gonna change the methodology of how we calculate those. So we’re gonna lower we’re going to rein in our benefit payments or outflows a little bit, but in a way that maybe isn’t quite so offensive, politically raw, stringing together some of these and you kind of start to have, I think you start to get to shoring up this programme, or at least kicking the can a little bit further down the road. You know, another option and to just get into, like a political lightning or out here is another another lever level here is immigration, right. Like, if you need more people to pay into the system, one way to do that is to bring in to loosen the immigration restrictions and say, Let’s have let’s have a lot more people coming into the country who are going to work, who are going to pay into Social Security. And that kind of offsets the fact that people are having so few kids 2025 years ago. So, you know, again, I don’t think any of these is this is the fix on its own. And there’s there’s issues with all of these things that I’ve proposed here. But you know, it’s kind of done in moderation, you get to start putting stringing together, something that moves the needle.

Gene Tunny  27:26

Yeah, yes. I was just thinking about that, Michael, I mean, immigration, I guess the issue is that, you know, that could help you maybe for 20 or 30 years within the immigrants themselves retire. So if they’re not having, you know, if their fertility rates not much higher than the existing population, then yeah, that that may not be it’s

Michael Johnston  27:48

a great point, right, like, absolutely. You would. And I think that’s, you know, that’s kind of a problem with all of these solutions is, I don’t know that any of them kind of get to the structural issues here. There are ways to, to kick the can down the road a little bit further. And I think that’s kind of an interesting conversation as well, if we’re going to tweak this, do we tweak this towards an off ramp? Like, do we start steering this towards that call this essentially a failed experiment? And say, Well, if we’re going to tweak it, let’s tweak it in a direction that starts to kind of wine this thing down and eventually get us get us off of this? Or do we kind of double down on it and make it more entrenched? And, you know, I have, what kind of my preference would be to go towards the the former of those, I think that’s extremely unlikely. Again, I think these these are all pretty politically unpopular decisions. So I think we’re more likely to double down on this than to kind of, if I were steering the ship, I would kind of steer us off of this, I’d say, pick the intentions were good, but that the math of it just just just no longer works, right? Wrong.

Gene Tunny  28:55

Yeah. Just don’t go ahead. And

Michael Johnston  28:59

I say that because I kind of think it’s an interesting thought experiment of if this were optional, right. Like, that’s the thing. And maybe I should have mentioned that the beginning like this is mandatory, you have to do this. It’s essentially a forced retirement programme. But it’s a forced retirement programme that has pretty bad returns, like the effective return, like, like I’ve paid in hundreds of 1000s of dollars, or my employers have into Social Security, and I’m affected like, I’ve run the numbers, I’m effectively earning a 2% return on that. If you look at the numbers of the money, I’m going to pay in between age 21 and 67. And then what I’m going to get out between 67 and whenever I die, like the numbers are not great. It’s essentially like a 2% return on investment during a period where the stock market has returned eight nine 10% a year. So it’s it’s it’s not it’s mandatory, but unfortunately, like the results are just not good the way that it was set up. So in a perfect world, people would be setting aside this money on their own but you know, of course, that’s That’s not easy for other reasons to think that people are going to, to kind of magically change their behaviour and start planning on their own for retirement. So I hope we’re not depressing people out there too much Jean, I keep saying there’s no good answers here. Right. And this is a messy situation and sticky. But I think it’s fascinating to look at kind of how we’ve gotten here, what went wrong, and, and to kind of explore these different reasons why, why there is no good reason and what, you know, what becomes most acceptable and kind of the least bad option out there. Yeah, but no one was hoping for a super uplifting, rah rah conversation here.

Gene Tunny  30:36

Yeah, I think the the issue the problem is in the states is that is the politics around it on the retirement age. So I’m just thinking. I mean, there’s one option, I mean, sure, you can raise the retirement age. But what about could you grandfather, the recipient, so draw a line in the sand and say, Look, if you’re, for those people who haven’t turned 18 yet, or people who were born in, you know, in 2005, or whatever, you’re going to get much less benefits from Social Security is just going to be a safety net, and we’re going to push you into this new scheme, we’re going to have individual retirement accounts, compulsory individual retirement accounts. Could something like that work? Yeah, I

Michael Johnston  31:24

think I think it could, like you’ve got to make, you’ve ultimately kind of got to make, you’ve got to make the numbers work. And, but but I think like that is, that is what I would prefer, we steer towards a steer towards a way where we kind of, we kind of get off of this, and it’s going to upset, you know, it’s going to upset, it’s gonna upset someone, right, you’re gonna have like you said, you’re gonna have to draw a line in the sand somewhere. And there’s gonna be a lot of people who are just on kind of the wrong side of that line in the sand, who who are maybe going to, you know, do worse than that 2% number I mentioned. But yes, I think that you, I think that you could do that, I think we should do that. Honestly, I think we should steer more towards kind of these individual retirement accounts, instead of just throwing all this money into into one bucket. And then kind of dishing it out of that one bucket. Yeah, I think you know, the devils in the details on that. But I think that that’s, I think that would honestly be the responsible thing to do.

Gene Tunny  32:23

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  32:29

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with Adept Economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice, we can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world, you can get in touch via our website, http://www.adepteconomics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  32:58

Now back to the show. Gonna ask on this retirement age to i One concern that people have is that we’ll look lifting the retirement age, that’s, that’s fine for professionals. For, you know, it’s but what about for manual workers who, you know, they really look forward to retirement and, you know, manual work is challenging as you get older. I mean, what, what happens if someone can’t I don’t know enough about the US Social Security system. But what happens if someone you know, they’re in the late 50s or early 60s, and then they really can’t work for medical reasons, they feel they can’t work in a manual job. Is there any coverage for them?

Michael Johnston  33:48

So there’s, there’s a couple of parts of this system that I think are designed? And I think do I’ve been kind of beating up on the system a little bit, but there’s some, I think, some some good parts of it, too. So one of them is we’ve kind of been talking about people who retire voluntarily for the most part of this conversation. Social Security does also the other people who get to security are those younger than retirement age, who had some sort of disability. So there’s, you know, there’s a process for verifying that and for applying for those benefits. So that’s a part of this programme. It’s a pretty small part of it. But But yes, that that that does exist. And then kind of the other nice, I guess, flexibility that’s built into this system right now is so at age, by default, your full retirement age is 67. That’s when you’re going to start receiving your benefits. You can say, You know what, I’d like to start benefits at 62. That’s the earliest you can do it, and you’ll get a smaller benefit payment. But if if for whatever reason, whether you want to or you’re you’re forced to, you can say I’m gonna start at 62 I don’t want to wait till 67. I’ll take my smaller amount, and I’m going to start getting it earlier. And you’re able to do that. And I think for the reasons that you mentioned that type But flexibility is important. And you can go the other way too, you can say, I’m going to, I don’t need to start at 67, I can rely on my personal savings or I’m still working. I’m going to wait till 70. And to incentivize that behaviour, the Social Security Administration will give you a little a little bump then. So instead of, you know, getting it’s effectively for each year, you delay receiving benefits, your benefit increases by 8%. So, if you said, I’m going to push it back from 67 to 70, voluntarily, they’ll say, Great, thank you for waiting to start receiving benefits, you get an extra 24% Bonus, essentially. And then the reverse the math is a little bit different. But essentially, if you want to bump it forward by by five years, you’ll get only 70% of the benefit you would have gotten otherwise. But you get to start it earlier. And actuarially, these numbers kind of all work out pretty similarly to the amount you expect to receive. Between when you over your lifetimes. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  35:54

I’m quite stunned by the number that we started at that we started the conversation with this 50% of Americans don’t have any retirement savings, I guess, what do we know if there actually is probably it’s bad, it’d be bad, even if you looked at added at a household level to because that’s individuals, but you’re going to have some people who are you know that you’re in a couple. So maybe one partner doesn’t have any savings, but the other partner is, has reasonable savings. But that probably doesn’t help the number too much. I’m just trying to wrap my head around what it all means. So it means that it

Michael Johnston  36:34

means well, so I think I think there’s kind of a couple of reasons for this. Like, how did this happen. So if you go back a generation or two generations, like my grandfather worked his entire career at General Electric. And when he retired, he got a pension, he got a guaranteed what’s called a defined benefit plan. So there’s a formula for calculating it, he worked there, let’s say you worked there for 40 years, and for every year, he got 2% of his salary. So he retired and he got a check every month from General Electric, even though he was no longer working there. And that used to be the norm here in America is that these pensions were what funded a lot of people’s retirement plans. And those have gone away. Like, at least in the States, the number of so called defined benefit contribution plans where you get a check each month from your employer in retirement, there’s still some, it’s mostly public sector employees, it’s cops and firefighters and teachers, some university employees will still have those defined benefit pension plans. But for the most part, those have gone away. And, and I think the idea was was well, you know, if employees, the individuals will step up, and the employers will fund these another way, but like nothing’s really stepped in to fill that gap. So it used to be fine to not save money for retirement because your employer was effectively doing it for you, and you are going to continue to get a paycheck from them after you retired. And that’s, that’s, that’s not the case anymore. And then I think just you know, culturally, like just to call it what it is, or to give my opinion on it, we’ve got a very consumer focused culture here, people spend money, they don’t have a lot of they spend money on status symbols that they don’t really need. You know, there’s a lot of of not great financial literacy and financial behaviour that goes on. We still don’t teach financial literacy in most schools here. And I think it’s a, you know, that’s a cultural problem. Like, I think that this is solvable, but it involves understanding the concept of, of spending more than you make, and compound interest and the, you know, the, the stigma of having debt, it requires understanding all these things and making it kind of a part of our culture, which unfortunately, right now, it’s very, very focused on, on spending and on the status symbol. So and I think there’s there’s similar issues around the globe, probably, to different extents. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  39:04

I mean, just as an outside observer, one thing that I think is, you know, does make it difficult for some people in the US is that you don’t have a well, you’ve got Medicare and Medicaid, but you don’t have a single payer or public health care system the same as we do in Australia or in in other OECD economies. And because I know that so many people in the looses the impression I get from the media that a lot of people in the US, they lose their savings, they get driven into bankruptcy because of medical debt. I mean, I don’t know if you’ve got any thoughts on that. But that just seems to me is something that is, you know, makes the situation in the US more difficult than in other countries.

Michael Johnston  39:47

Yeah, I think I think there’s a couple of things. I think there are plenty of those. I’ll call them acute instances where someone unfortunately has a significant injury and they kind of one off In this acute instance, they acquire a bunch of medical data, they have kind of massive one off costs. But then I think there’s a lot of kind of death by 1000 cuts to our cost of health care. And that in the States has gone up here. It’s way outpaced the cost of inflation just over the last 20 years, the cost of health care has skyrocketed. So even if you don’t have this acute event where you have an unfortunate accident or disease that requires huge outlays, I mean, you’re kind of like I said, you’re getting you’re getting paper cut to death, right, just with the the metric the premiums that you have to pay and kind of all these things that that add up. You’re absolutely right. It’s both those those kind of acute instances as well as healthcare in general, just counting for a big portion of a budgets here of household budgets.

Gene Tunny  40:48

Yeah, that’s we probably can’t tackle health care as well as social security day, unfortunately, it’s it is a big issue. I’ll have to cover it again on the show, because I know it’s a huge, a huge challenge there. Like, I want to ask you about it again, on this low level of savings. Or it’s extraordinary, because from my understanding, there are good tax effective retirement savings options available in the states aren’t there, I had a guest on who was talking about the 401, Ks and Roth, IRAs, the individual retirement accounts,

Michael Johnston  41:26

ya know, those are two incredibly powerful vehicles that allow you to essentially defer and eliminate a lot of taxes. So yes, and it’s a great question. And I think that these were introduced in kind of response to a lot of corporate employers cutting pensions with the idea was, okay, well, if pensions are going away, let’s give Americans these tools so that they can invest in a tax efficient manner, they can shield a lot of their significant portion of their assets and their income. And, you know, the trade off is the way that these accounts work at a very high level is you can defer, you can defer your income tax and instead put the money into this tax advantaged account. And you can shield it from from dividend and capital gains taxes. In the meantime, the trade off is you can’t just pull out money, if you want to go to if you want to go to a basketball game, or you want to go gamble, if you want to buy a sports car, you can’t just pull the money out, you’ve got to keep it in there. In most cases, it’s until just before age 60, age 59 and a half. So the idea here is let’s incentivize good behaviour, let’s give you these great tax advantages, if you invest in this account that you cannot touch until you’re 59 and a half. And you’re going to therefore kind of remove the temptation to blow this all on on something frivolous and something unnecessary. And we’re going to force good behaviour. So yes, those tools are there. And that’s part of the frustrating part of the frustration here is that they’re not being utilised to the extent that they should be I think part of it is folks are are unaware of them, it still requires level of discipline, even if you even if you are aware of them. It’s not that you know, it’s not that exciting right now to to put money in your 401 K when the alternative is you go buy something flashy that you don’t really need. So kind of comes down to delaying gratification. But yes, absolutely. These tools are available. And I You’re preaching to the choir, that more folks should use them and kind of take ownership here.

Gene Tunny  43:26

Yeah, I mean, what we do in Australia is we have I guess, we’ve got an age pension, which is, is funded out a consolidated revenue, and it’s not linked to what you contribute at all. It’s just available depending on eligibility, you get to a certain age, there’s an asset test to for, for assets other than the family home. But otherwise, it’s you know, it’s different. And then we also we brought in individual retirement accounts, I think that’s how you what you’d call them in, in the states the the superannuation, and that’s, you know, that there’s a huge pool of super assets as that’s been built up. Now there are, there’s a big debate about whether we should let people withdraw from that to get a deposit for a home. I think that’s probably a good idea. And then there’s, you know, concern concerns, maybe we’re paying too much into it, maybe the unions have got too much control of the funds. There’s all those sort of issues, but broadly, I think it sounds like, you know, relative to where the states is, I mean, we’re probably in a better position here. But everything’s, you know, it’s not all doom and gloom. Like I think you were saying, Well, this is a depressing conversation. I’m not, I think it’s actually quite, it’s been good for me, because it’s given me a good appreciation of what those levers are, that could be changed and because one of the things that that you often hear is that it’s called a Ponzi scheme. What do you think? and give that characterization. Well,

Michael Johnston  45:01

I would say that a Ponzi scheme is is fraudulent, right? It’s, it’s illegal. It’s inherently fraudulent. And for anyone listening who’s not familiar, essentially it means so let’s say Jean invest his money with an asset manager. And then I invest behind him. And this asset manager pays him out with some of my money. So essentially, it’s a fraudulent way to inflate returns. And Gene says, holy cow, this manager did a great job for me, I got a 50% return in just two years, I’m gonna go tell all my friends, and essentially relies on your it’s not actual games, you’re kind of paying them out with other people’s money. It’s fraudulent, it’s very clearly illegal. There’s nothing about Social Security that at least to my knowledge has been fraudulent or illegal or anything shady like that. It’s incredibly transparent. It’s working exactly like it was designed to there’s no kind of shady cooking the books things that are that are going on. So now, having said all that, essentially, is, you know, it’s not totally baseless claim, because it relies on kind of the same mechanism that a Ponzi scheme does. It relies on new people coming into the system. In this case, they’re, you know, new employees entering into the workforce. If they were all go away. We have no money to kind of pay out the retiree. So the mechanism is the same. But I want to make I think it’s important distinction that, you know, there’s while there are some similarities, there’s, you know, I’m certainly not I don’t think anyone’s accusing Social Security of being fraudulent or deceptive in any way. It was maybe just kind of poorly designed, I guess you could certainly accuse it of being that but to my knowledge, at least there’s there’s no serious accusations of any any kind of fraud or any misdoing in that way. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  46:51

And a point that Ryan Grim on counterpoints, which is part of that breaking points network he made the other day because they look at this issue quite a bit. From time to time, he was saying, well, let’s never missed a payment in over 80 years or something, whereas a Ponzi scheme probably would have been that times that would have collapsed. So it’s just a matter of Yeah, to me, it looks like it’s a matter of getting those benefit levels, right. Maybe they do need to be adjustments, increasing the retirement age, looking at the rate of contributions, but again, the politics that are difficult, just seems to me that there seem to be more focused on this or or there seem to be more practical policy work going on to try to resolve this in the 90s. And, and up until maybe, I don’t know, 10 years ago, I think was Paul Ryan, looking at some stage. But even Joe Biden, Joe Biden, when he was in the Senate was looking at this is Is there anything actually going on behind the scenes that you know, have to fix this?

Michael Johnston  47:55

Yeah, it’s it’s a great question. I’ll be honest, I don’t know how serious or how advanced you know, a lot of times in the states here, we you kind of have the the idea that that people are working on things, but it’s effectively a campaign mechanism to kind of talk about it at a very high level. I don’t know the extent to which there are, you know, aides behind the scenes, sharpening pencils and running calculations and kind of actually trying to find a viable path forward here. I think that it is, I don’t think we’re at that point, I think that this will continue to get this Ken will continue to get kicked down the road. Like I said, we’re still you know, we want to look at glass half full. And some good news here. We have time here, right? We have time to fix this. We’ve got a decade still. So I think that there are more pressing issues. And this is going to be fixing this is going to be a thankless job, because it’s going to upset guaranteed to upset someone, there’s no easy way to do this. And I think that thankless jobs that don’t need to be solved tomorrow, tend to get tend to get pushed down the road, probably quite a bit, which is unfortunate, because that’s uncertainty for investors, right? Like not knowing. In theory, the more warning you have, and the more clarity you have, the more time you have to react to this, to change your behaviour and to kind of come up with a solution. But to the extent that you’re kind of left guessing into the last minute how this is going to play out is you know that that ultimately hurts the investors. But I think that’s what’s going to happen here. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  49:28

Well, it’s a very important issue, because as part of the whole, I mean, you need to get Social Security fixed up. And then there’s a broader budget challenge. There are concerns about, you know, growing federal debt and what that means, whether that’s sustainable or not, and what that means to the global economy if there’s a fiscal crisis in the US, so I mean, that would have huge ramifications. So it’s something that I’m looking at very closely. Michael, is there anything else on this on this issue that We haven’t covered that you think would be good to, to inject into the conversation before we wrap up? Yeah,

Michael Johnston  50:06

I think I think we’ve kind of covered it here, we’ve kind of been pretty, we’ve been pretty wide ranging here. The one thing I was I was just thinking is we kind of talked about this, this Frankenstein solution where no one thinks the lover moves the needle, but you kind of stitch together enough of them and you start to get there. I think another thing that I’ve seen discussed, is you remove the tax benefits from some of these things like our IRA, or Individual Retirement arrangement, our 401 K plan, I’ve seen that discussed, as well as that’s another way to raise some incremental revenue for the system here is a, you’re no longer gonna get the tax benefits from contributing to a 401k from contributing to an IRA. And we’re gonna funnel that money towards social security instead, it’s a little bit, you know, robbing Peter to pay Paul like to kind of write trying to solve the retirement crisis and saying, Well, we’re going to penalise this type of retirement account to bail out this type of retirement account. But it’s, you know, it’s more it’s kind of more politically palatable, maybe so, you know, I guess in closing, I would say, I hope that this is one of those issues. It’s widely misunderstood. And, you know, I hope that we could kind of have an honest discussion about the merits here, or the merits of the system, where it’s working, where it’s not the pros and cons of the different approaches. I know, that’s incredibly naive, I can kind of feel people rolling their eyes at me saying, you know, this guy thinks we’re gonna have an intelligent conversation about this heated issue. So I know that it’s gonna, it’s going to be political. And it’s going to be a major point of all the campaigns probably for the next several years, but in my heart of hearts, I’ll hold out hope that we can have a an adult conversation and, and fix this sooner than sooner rather than later and come up with a compromise. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  51:54

yeah, I hope so too. Okay, Michael, before we go, your wealth channel, wealth channel Academy, your pitch is becoming or your tagline becoming a millionaire, is easy. And I’ll put a link in the show notes to your site, you say there’s seven basic concepts to understand. So I think, are there any? Is there anything you’d like to say about, you know, what you’re doing with wealth channel that? Yeah,

Michael Johnston  52:25

they Thank you, Dan, I just, I guess, I just like to say, we encourage people to take ownership take ownership of your financial future. So you are not dependent on Social Security, take advantage of these 401 K’s these HSAs IRAs. And, you know, assume you’re gonna get nothing and from from Social Security and take ownership of your financial future. It sounds complicated, it’s really not that complicated once you dive into it. So I’m kind of on a mission to simplify this process for people help them feel more confident with this process of planning for retirement, understand what’s actually going on what they actually need. So, and this is, you know, a great illustration of why so that you hope Social Security will be there, and the full amount you’re expecting, but if it’s not, you’re covered anyways. Right? Yep.

Gene Tunny  53:09

And so if you start saving at a young enough age, and I mean, the math of compound interest shows it’s you know, the earlier you start, the better, and you get so much benefit from starting in your, in your 20s as soon as you’re getting a good or even earlier, or getting a good salary saving, or any sort of salary saving a bit a little bit, or as much as you can, and then that just builds up and compounds over time. And you could be in a situation is it right, where, you know, if you get you could get some social security, but the majority of your income will be from those those assets earnings from those assets. That’s right.

Michael Johnston  53:44

That’s right. It’s you know, there’s, there’s a path for a lot of people to retire with a million dollars in your 401k or a million dollars in your IRA. And exactly what you just said Albert Einstein said that compounding returns are the eighth wonder of the world and he was a pretty smart guy. So good advice to follow. Start, start early. start young and do what you can. Very

Gene Tunny  54:05

good. Okay. Michael Johnson from the from wealth channel. Thanks so much for the conversation. I really enjoyed it.

Michael Johnston  54:12

I did as well. Pleasure to be with you.

Gene Tunny  54:15

rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

55:02

Thank you for listening we hope you enjoyed the episode for more content like this or to begin your own podcasting journey head on over to obsidian-productions.com

Categories
Podcast episode

Unlocking the Financial Black Box: Transforming Business Efficiency w/ Andrew Walker – EP232

This episode explores the crucial role of efficient financial management in driving business performance and productivity. Guest Andrew Walker, a seasoned financial consultant, shares his extensive experience advising businesses on utilizing data for improved cash flow and strategic decisions. Walker emphasizes the transformation from traditional bookkeeping to strategic financial planning as businesses scale.

Please get in touch with us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: Andrew Walker, CEO, Improcus 

Andrew, with over 30 years of executive management and accounting experience, across global and local markets, brings a depth of experience and credibility built across the manufacturing, retail, franchise, construction and transport sectors. Whether as CEO or on the shop floor, Andrew understands the challenges and demands of business. Andrew has an intuitive understanding of business in both financial and functional areas. His work experience includes:

  • CEO of Improcus, a South East Queensland business improvement consultants company/business and has worked with 100 companies in 10 years with an aggregate annual turnover of $1.0b CEO of AAF Industries Plc, a London stock exchange listed company specialising in design, manufacture and installation of modular buildings in Europe. The Group also included a laboratory furniture manufacturing business and a scaffolding division.
  • CFO BTR Dunlop Ltd, listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, responsible for all South African operations and the Financial Controller for Africa reporting to BTR PLc. Turnover R1.0billion
  • Divisional Finance Director of Dorbyl Automotive Components consisting of 16 divisions supplying various automotive components to OEM’s.
  • Financial Controller for the Aberdare Power Group, the largest manufacturer of power cables in South Africa

What’s covered in EP232

  • Introduction (0:00)
  • Streamlining business processes to improve cash flow. (4:15)
  • Automating business processes for efficiency and growth. (9:19)
  • Improving business performance through financial analysis. (13:54)
  • Financial management and growth in a business. (18:30)
  • Financial management and business growth. (23:55)
  • When businesses need a CFO or financial controller. (28:52)
  • Private equity, AI, and business trends. (32:09)
  • Business software and data analysis. (36:22)
  • Business productivity, taxes, and insolvency. (42:37)
  • Financial reporting and cash flow management in businesses. (46:54)

Takeaways

  1. The Peter Principle in Finance: Promotion beyond competence in finance roles can critically hinder a business’s growth. It’s crucial to elevate financial management capabilities as the business scales.
  2. Automation and Efficiency: Leveraging modern software and automating processes can significantly reduce time and errors in financial reporting, enabling quicker strategic decisions.
  3. Strategic Role of Chief Financial Officers: A CFO’s role transcends traditional bookkeeping, focusing on external growth opportunities, mergers, acquisitions, and stakeholder management. Understanding when to transition from a bookkeeper to a CFO is key for business evolution.
  4. Data Utilization for Decision Making: Effective use of data, including forecasting and performance analysis, is essential for driving strategic business decisions and identifying areas for improvement.
  5. Cash Flow Management: Proactive cash flow forecasting and management are critical for navigating financial challenges and seizing opportunities, underscoring the importance of a competent finance department.

Abbreviations used in the show

  • ATO – Australian Taxation Office
  • BOM – Bill of materials
  • CFO – Chief financial officer
  • CV – constant velocity, as in CV joint
  • DIFOT – Delivery in full on time
  • ERP – Enterprise resource planning
  • GST – Goods and Services Tax
  • IPO – Initial public offering
  • PAYG – Pay as you go

Transcript: Unlocking the Financial Black Box: Transforming Business Efficiency w/ Andrew Walker – EP232

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Andrew Walker  00:04

I come across businesses, where the bookkeeper who started out with the original owner is now the CFO. And that’s the real old Peter principle that applies to finance departments as well. So, and when you have a person that has been promoted past the level of competency, what happens is they then start employing incompetent people below them.

Gene Tunny  00:33

Welcome to the Economics Explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning into the show. This episode of Economics Explored explores business performance and productivity with our special guest Andrew Walker, a financial consultant who works with businesses to improve efficiency and profitability. Andrew has over 30 years of executive management and accounting experience across global and local markets. He’s advised major companies in the manufacturing retail franchise construction and transport sectors. In this episode, among other insights, Andrew talks about how businesses could better utilise data to improve cash flow and drive strategic decision making. This episode of Economics Explored is brought to you by Lumo coffee Lumo is seriously healthy organic coffee. Lab tests have confirmed that Luma coffee has tripled the amount of healthy antioxidants and poly phenols than regular coffee. Health benefits from these poly phenols include a lower risk of heart disease, anti inflammatory effects, and improved mental and physical performance. Lumo coffee would like to offer economics expert listeners at 20% discount off all coffees for a limited time only until the 30th of April 2024. Go to Lumo coffee.com. And at the checkout, use the code explored 20 That’s all uppercase, X floored and the number to zero for a discount on all Lumo coffee valid until April 3020 20. For that code again explored 20 Check out the show notes for further details. Right. Oh, we’d better get into it. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Andrew Walker. Andrew Walker, thanks for joining me on the programme. Yeah. Good to see you again. Gene. Yes. Excellent to see you, Andrew. So I’ve been along to some of your breakfast. You’re very good at organising people. And you’ve got a really good group here in Brisbane, of business people, people with experience in the practicalities of running businesses and growing businesses. And I’m keen to pick your brain today regarding business performance and business productivity, because as economists we drone on all the time about efficiency and productivity, making a penny Dewar pounds work as my grandfather used to say something very critical, not critical, but a joke about economists. So I’m interested in your reflections as someone who who does work with businesses and advises businesses. What is it that other barriers to high performance? What is it that’s limiting the efficiency? The productivity of businesses, please? Yeah,

Andrew Walker  03:49

well, Gene, I think one of the there’s there’s a number but let’s start off and talk about some of the key ones that I deal with from a financial perspective. For example, inefficient processes. You know, outdated, convoluted processes can slow down the operations, waste, valuable time and resources, inefficient workflows also, and redundant tasks and excessive bureaucracy can contribute to decreased efficiency, and some of these sorts of things. For example, if you remember back in the day of mainframe sales, IBM had a salesperson of business development and design team, a credit approval team, and they were taken up to six months to turn a potential quote into an order. And they actually changed the whole process and made the salesperson, the responsible person to make sure it went through all the departments efficiently, and they reduced the time substantially. So I did some work with a franchisor on his sales process for bringing in franchisees and they were taking exactly the same thing six months around actually trying to vet the people, get them in, talk to them. And if you’ve got good franchisees if They’ve got the money, they want to take the opportunity, they can’t wait six months for somebody to decide whether they’re going to come in. And so we went through a workflow process, identified the issues, and actually cut that right down to one month to get the activity of signing up more franchisees a lot quicker than waiting six months to go through the whole process.

Gene Tunny  05:18

Right? What what sort of business was it that were broadly what industry was

Andrew Walker  05:22

it? I it was in the, in the industry in motor vehicles?

Gene Tunny  05:26

Right. Gotcha. Okay. Right.

Andrew Walker  05:29

You know, and other processes. For example, when we talk about processes, people immediately think about a manufacturing process in an organisation. They are lots of other processes that are actually embedded in the business. For example, I did some work with a large scaffolding business a couple of years ago. And the important thing there was their debtors were, you know, way above what they should be, and we brought them down from I think it was 65 days to I think, 45 days, there was an inflow of $1.6 million in the small business now. That’s, people think, Oh, well, what do you do, but you’ve got to examine the whole process from taking a new a new customer on what’s their credit limit, what’s the process of resolving credit notes quickly and efficiently. And so that you remove all the reasons for them not to not pay the business. And so having identified the process made people accountable within the organisation we were able to bring, the data stays down. And that helped in the sale of the business, because what was happening is we were setting the business up for sale. And the working capital average, when you sell a small business always catches people, because they think that debtors are are going to continue at that high level. And when you bring them down in a sale process, you actually have created an average working capital higher than what you should have. And therefore you’ll end up having to chip money in at the end after the when the deal is done.

Gene Tunny  06:56

Could you just go over that? Again. I’m just trying to make sure I understand that book. So I think you’ve identified a critical issue for any business, which is the cash flow. I mean, cash is king, and a lot of businesses get into trouble because they can’t manage their cash. And you had an example where did you say debtors days? So the people who owe your business money? Was it 60 days or something

Andrew Walker  07:21

like that 60 days, and we had to bring it down to 45 days to bring it in terms. And so if you when you start negotiating the sale of your business, especially with the purchase, I will lock in a date. Yeah. And in order. And through that process, I look at the last 12 months. What is the average working capital? Yeah, and when the actual transaction happened six months later, they use the average working capital. And when you hand over the keys to the business, they then calculate what the working capital is on the day and apply amid the metric to the average working capital of the previous 12 months. And if the working capital is lower than the average 12 months, the seller has to put the money into. So before you sell a business, you’ve got to make sure your balance sheet is actually well organised. The debtors are clear the creditors are always paid in terms that you can have a really good quality working capital base.

Gene Tunny  08:18

Yeah, so you’re gonna get all that lined up. So with the 60 days, on average, they were taking 60 days to pay. Right? So this business wasn’t chasing the invoices up is that right? That they weren’t managing their invoices properly? Well,

Andrew Walker  08:33

there was a lot of issues in there. Because first of all, getting the right customers, okay, don’t take on customers who are probably dodgy. So part of the whole process is, make sure you’ve got good customers. Yeah, make sure they understand your processes, and your terms of trade. And if they have credit notes, it’s important to get those credit notes processed quickly, because that becomes a reason for non payment. Right? What

Gene Tunny  08:57

What do you mean by that? Can

Andrew Walker  08:58

you explain what you mean by if I have the business $100,000 And I’ve got $3,000 I’m queering and questioning because the service didn’t happen or the product wasn’t supplied, or it’s a bad quality product. I use that as a reason not to pay the full 100,000 Yeah, so you know, it’s about processing those credit notes really quickly.

Gene Tunny  09:19

Gotcha. Okay, yeah, sorting, sorting out those issues. And so

Andrew Walker  09:23

another another sort of area is lack of automate automation, in a in a business. And once again, we straightaway think of the factory with robotics and welding and that, but also in the whole financial process, automating all the different systems to produce the financial management report to the end of the month is important. And I had a client this goes back a good few years, and their finance team took 30 days to produce the management reports of the previous month. And it was just out of control. And it was spreadsheets upon spreadsheets upon spreadsheets reconciling, reconciling reconciling and and when you When you when I laid it out on the boardroom table, because the owner didn’t believe this was this was a 30 30 million is probably a 30 40 million business now. I laid everything out on the boardroom table and said, right, you reconsider your team reconciles the spreadsheet to that spreadsheet. And I said, this is a waste of time, I said, let’s just let’s invest in some software changes. And the software changes, push the data from the ERP system straight into the financial system, they were able to produce the reports within three days, which is where you get to real world class standards. Okay,

Gene Tunny  10:33

so just for those of us who aren’t familiar with the lingo, ERP stands for enterprise

Andrew Walker  10:38

resource planning. So it’s the whole, it’s the engine room of the business. So you’d have a financial system. And then you have the engine room. So if it’s a manufacturing business, it’s the bill of materials, it’s the labour, it’s the planning, all of those things around that create the activities, which then create a financial transaction that gets pushed into the financial systems in the business

Gene Tunny  11:01

by their software packages, or applications you’d recommend for this sort of thing? Well, no, it’s

Andrew Walker  11:05

about understand well, what I found in a lot of businesses that are getting involved in is the inefficiency is they’ve bought really good packages, right? The implementation has only a 20% delay, okay. And so it’s about understanding, yeah, people have done and then actually increasing the implementation of those packages up to the right level. And so in this instance, it was using the existing ERP system, changing the report writing, creating the link straight into the financial things. So there was no reconciliations and wasting time, they had a saving because we then were able to let the Financial Controller Go, which was $100,000, salary, wasting time doing all these requests, because that was they were they weren’t adding any value in the business. Yeah, in a perpetual income 100,000 a year, that’s a million dollars in 10 years that you’ve saved by simple small automation within a business. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  12:00

And this is, I mean, this is across the economy, right? This is what I think’s interesting about this, because as economists, we we tend to assume competition, competitive markets, weeds out the inefficient operators. And to an extent that’s true, right? I mean, that’s, that’s obviously true. You do have the situation where there are many businesses that just aren’t living up to their potential. They’re, like 10 or 20% off what their potential is. I don’t know if it’s that high. But for many it could be I mean, there are there a lot of there’s still a lot of inefficiency in business out there.

Andrew Walker  12:30

You know, I was dealing with a fast moving consumer goods business, and they were, they were processing different kinds of sources, which the order would come on a Wednesday, it would be cooked Wednesday night, it would be processed Thursday, it would be on a track Thursday night, into suddenly for the shelves for the weekend shopping. They they Dafydd delivery in full on time was was around 76%. And and you know, that whole process, they had implemented SAP, yeah, but they’ve never taken it into the production area. The production painting was sticky notes or post it notes stuck on production planners wore a telephone note, you know, telephone call and email, open the door, the wind blows, we’ve lost a few levels of

Gene Tunny  13:17

production cafe, right? Yeah,

Andrew Walker  13:19

exactly. And so what happened was, you know, I’ve, I’ve pushed this all out, and we then moved as SAP implementation into the production process. And that then opened it up. And after two months of working with the team there, I’ve got it up to 99%. Three months in a row, we achieved 99% The effort, and we also moved the business away from product centric, to customer centric at the same time, which customer centric had more margins than product centric, because product centric was high volume, this just get hot volume into this.

Gene Tunny  13:53

It’s gonna ask you about this die fight. I haven’t actually heard that expression, or haven’t heard it spelled as or set as die fight. It’s a good one. I understand what what you’re talking about. I mean, that’s 76% that’s, that’s terrible.

Andrew Walker  14:07

There’s more. So what happens is you lose then shelf space in the supermarket, because you’re not there on time. So you, you you get removed from the eye level shopper wants to pick off the comfortable level and you say your shelf space then moves down to the bottom shelf, because other people have got in front of you in terms of your your your space allocation within in the supermarkets and boutique.

Gene Tunny  14:29

Sorry, the supermarkets in the TV boutique shops selling the sources in APA Gotcha. Are they met other benchmarks for what all of these metrics? So you’re, you’re a former or you’ve got experiences as a chief financial officer, is that right? That’s correct. Yeah. And are there benchmarks or commonly accepted benchmark standards for what those data days should be for what die fight should be that sort of thing. Like when you go into a business that you Are you saying, like, based on my experience or based on industry benchmarks, you’ve got to be hitting these key metrics. I think

Andrew Walker  15:08

every business, you’ve got to actually look at it and understand it. You can’t just have a, there’s not a standard, there’s a standard bent benchmark, let’s say 45 days for dead end. But if half of your sales are cash, yeah, then it’s not 45 days, it’s probably 20 days. So when I walk into a business, and I start reviewing it through my model for real improvement, I have a look at that and say, Well, if 50% of your sales are cash, we exclude that out of the calculation. Otherwise, you look pretty good, because you might be reporting 30 days. And if the benchmarks 45, but you’ve got cash at 50% It’s actually misleading. So yeah, and our fight with that fight is about delivery in full on time. Yeah. 100%. Yeah. There’s no question that’s, that’s a standard you need to achieve. And so there are lots of different ratios. And the one has to just examine the business and identify, what are the key ratios and drivers that drive profit in the business?

Gene Tunny  16:06

What was his model for real improvement that you’re talking you’re talking about?

Andrew Walker  16:10

Okay, so I’ve I’ve developed some software offers a German platform, and the software is called jeddaks. And so that actually brings the financial information in. And I’ve developed a one pager that shows how to improve the business by making high level strategic decisions in the business, if I reduced it as days by X days, if I reduce stock by y days, and I put creditors out by another two days, what is the cash impact, but that is using all the historical information. And then I do the same on the profit and loss in terms of sales price increase, volume increase, expense increase, and then that’s all hinged around the DuPont, you’ll probably know the DuPont analysis, going back to the 60s, right created the return on capital employed. And then on top of that, I’ve then introduced cash flow to that to the point analysis, because now when he developed it was about return on investment return on capital employed. Today, it’s all about cash, cash is king, as you said earlier, so I’ve got this model for real improvement, which also helps then link corporate strategy to the financials. And then you develop that if you say you’re going to increase your your turnover by 10%, you then have to drive that in the rest of my modelling down to which product, which customer, what price, what product, what channel, and that then makes people within the organisation at the coalface accountable to the corporate strategy. So that’s the one of the big things that are found. We are very good at vision mission and fluffy stuff. But when it comes in to managing the actual coalface, it gets a bit difficult because it gets blurred. So my model for real improvement then looks at and says, that customer that price in that month on those products goes up by 5%. And that’s how you achieve it. And if you’re not achieving it, then people become answerable on that monthly management sort of review process. Right, which is what happens sometimes in businesses is the turnover goes up 10% For something totally different reasons. The core strategy is never dealt with. But we all pat ourselves on the back saying, Oh, we we achieving our corporate strategy, when in fact, we haven’t addressed the items that was identified at the strategic sort of review. Right,

Gene Tunny  18:30

gotcha. And how do you make sure that the people at the coalface are doing the things that need to be done to hit the targets? I mean, I do go and talk to them. You have dev workshop with them how to,

Andrew Walker  18:43

okay, so I’ve been, I’ve been working with a group of highly intellectual individuals in a business, I like to keep them the name out of the podcasts. And they were very focused around delivering their professional skills to their clients. Yeah, with no concept of profit. And there was just one high level p&l, then actually, and the profit had come down over a number of years. And you know, it was on a reduction, and I got involved to help them. And one of the things I did is turn it on its head and said, Well, hold on. You’ve got regions here, let’s let’s put in regional profit and loss statements, and then make the regional managers accountable. And then in this modelling of mine, I then took it down to how many hours are each of the people going to be working? What is the efficiency? What is the sale rate, what is their cost rate? And so now we’ve got this model that they can actually change every month in terms of this person is going to be off for three weeks or take him outside adjust the turnover. And this modelling then creates the three way financials, cash flow, balance sheet and p&l. And so that date in every, every month we review it and have a look at what’s happening within the business and make adjustments to look at the full We have forecast, as a result of I think, as a result to bring in that to play in the organisation, together with focusing around improving the efficiency of the computer system they’ve got they’ve got a cracking system, but they weren’t even touching the surface in terms of the capabilities of that software. I think the this year if it all goes to plan, we would have trebled the previous year’s operating profit.

Gene Tunny  20:25

Wow. Right. And that’s by giving people a better understanding of, of what actually contributes to the bottom line, what the

Andrew Walker  20:36

there’s an understanding hours rates, cost, expenses, margins, selling price to customers, all those things come into play when you’re having those discussions. Gotcha. Okay.

Gene Tunny  20:47

Are there any other barriers? We’ve been talking about barriers to to higher performance?

Andrew Walker  20:53

Yeah, I think, you know, I’ve got an interesting one. And this is, this is where the company starts out very small, the owner brings in the bookkeeper. And as the business grows, he doesn’t look at the finance department, and let it grow with the business and bringing the right financial level skill. So I come across businesses, where the bookkeeper who started out with the original owner is now the CFO. And that’s the real old Peter Principle and applies to finance departments as well. So and when you have a person that has been promoted past the level of competency, what happens is they then start employing incompetent people below them. And because they can’t afford to do the work because of the level of competency, and this always becomes manual and then and so I have this thing, we all know E because mc squared is speed of light, I say the Peter Principle of competency plussing competencies in competency cube, which is the speed to insolvency. And so and I’ve seen this before, we’re the bookkeeper, you know, rises to that position. So as a business is growing, it’s not a barrier, but it’s been able to recognise that as your business grows, you need to introduce different levels of people within the organisation. So you’d start out with a bookkeeper, maybe you then have the tax accountant to a point sometimes people hold on too long to the tax accountants, as the business is growing. And then you go to a financial controller, or Phantom, CFO, Lakhmi, or who then when it gets big enough, you need a real CFO and people don’t understand what a CFO is, versus a financial controller either, you know, CFOs, external mergers, acquisitions, stakeholder management, etc. And you’ve got to be ready to grow at that level before you start bringing CFOs into your business

Gene Tunny  22:46

for CFOs. You’re you’re about creating possibilities. We’re not just being a bookkeeper. But what are the risks? I mean, you can expand on that, but what are the risks of just having the person who started out as your bookkeeper become? Your effective, you know, become the CFO of as your business expands from being a small business to having, you know, millions or 10s of millions or hundreds of millions in revenue? What are the risks? What can go wrong?

Andrew Walker  23:10

Well, I think that the risks are, that person doesn’t actually grow with the business and start looking at the risk profile. You know, if we talk about a bookkeeper does the accounting the day to day bookkeeping of the business, but as you start growing, you start getting increasing your debtors? What about credit limits? What about the risk profile? What about your insurance? What about the systems as your business is growing? You know, a good CFO strike financial controller will be in the business, he’ll have the accounting work working really well. And a good solid bookkeeper is a person who consistently does the same thing all the time, at a high level of quality. And a good CFO will be across the business looking at systems and processes and thinking outside the box. Yeah, I think that’s the difference, I think. And I say this, and I’ve come up the finance route, so I can be critical of my own professional. Good Financial Controller doesn’t necessarily make a good, a good CFO, in the in the different financial controllers, inwardly focused, producing management reports, running the business. From that point of view, a CFO is looking externally outside the business risk profile opportunity to grow. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  24:22

So on these risks, I’m just so where the businesses get into trouble. I mean, they can I mean, some are just there are some that are going to be unviable. But there are many businesses that that actually end up. You know, they end up basically having to wind up because they mismanaged their cash or that if

Andrew Walker  24:41

you talk to any or most liquidators administrators and you say to them, what is the first impression you have when you walk into one of these distressed businesses? And they’ll tell you 80 to 90% of the time, the finance accounting departments in a mess, right, yeah. And that’s where you then have a bookkeeper who He’s become the CFO doesn’t understand the risks involved in running a much bigger business because their, their, their, their processes around transactional, yeah, processing, invoices credit, all those sorts of things and not looking at the bigger risk. And that’s that’s the real issue with regard to you know, these distressed companies, the accounts are in a mess. So you don’t know your product profitability, your customer profitability, where your market growth are, what’s your gross margin? What’s your breakeven, all those critical things that good? Finance controller Cummins CFO?

Gene Tunny  25:37

Net? Right. Yeah. So you could be losing money? Yeah, you’ve got you haven’t got your you’re not? You’re not selling in the right areas? You haven’t got your pricing, right. You’re not making enough money? Yeah, so yeah. Okay.

Andrew Walker  25:52

And so that comes to to what I call the financial blackbox. Yeah. So before you take off in there are playing on your journey of building this business, know what’s in the in the black box. And that’s around understanding what the financial department does, and how they can add value in your business. A lot of finance departments are seen as an overhead, an extension of the ATO to do the best and the GST and the PAYG, etc. But the finance department in a good business provides really quality information to help people make good decisions around what they do in in their business.

Gene Tunny  26:32

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  26:37

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with Adept Economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice, we can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world, you can get in touch via our website, http://www.adepteconomics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  27:06

Now back to the show. What are they doing? You’re doing modelling of, of, you know, what different scenarios? Are you thinking about shocks that could hit the business, what sort of works been done in

Andrew Walker  27:21

terms of just a normal. So the way I approach when I look at businesses and I’ve I’ve asked to come in and help, they could be distressed, or they could be growing exceptionally and need some support. The first port of call is the financial system, the financial systems have to be sound and producing accurate quality, timely numbers. And once you’ve got that in place, then you will identify then I start mixing in products, customers, margins, and the non financial elements and merge them together to get some kind of value reporting around. How do you improve the business? Once you’ve got that you can then start doing your ratio analysis and saying, where’s the gaps? Yeah. And then once you’ve got the gaps, and with my modelling, for real improvement, you can then say, what if? What if I put the prices up? And the volume goes down by percent? Or what happens if I put the the volumes up and prices up? What’s the impact, and that then gives you cash flow. But also having identified the gaps. I talked about the p to the power of four, which looks at the process, the process mapping the productivity of the people in that process, the proficiency of those people doing the processes, and then the profit and how the profit is generated. And that that then wraps into a good action plan to help the business go through its problems of getting back to normal profitability again. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  28:52

this is great. So you’re crunching the numbers. I like that. Yeah, because a lot of businesses I mean, they’re, you know, they’ve got founders and the founders, obviously doing something, right. Because they managed to, to grow from just being a micro business and they’re starting to, you know, they’re getting sales and they’re taking on employees, and they’re doing what works for them. But in your experience, you think all on their growth on on their journey through those like I often look at that I watch Dave Ramsey stuff. I don’t agree with everything he says, but I think he’s got some good points. I like his framework for the different stages of the business and how they, they start off with being a mum and dad business. So we get his actual terminology. But you know, the idea is you want to go through these different stages of being a trailblazer and then end up at at legacy and all of that. And I’m just thinking there, I mean, we we’re in the journey of being a business should should, should a business owner be thinking of getting a CFO or going you know, moving in If you’re having a bookkeeper or just having an accountant who helps them out with tax,

Andrew Walker  30:03

yeah, so I think I think it’s an that’s not a simple answer that if I hit this turnover, people have this perception I’m doing 20 million, I need to see it depends on a number of things in the business, you know, if you have a very simple business, which is purely trading, urbanna sell, and it’s a simple transaction, do you really need a CFO in your business, because you’re going to bring the CFO in, he’s not going to actually add the value you want. And invariably, he’s going to get bored. And you’ve wasted the the investment of recruiting somebody who then moves on very shortly afterwards, because it’s a simple business. But when you start getting into, for example, manufacturing, and you’ve got bombs, and you’ve got, you know, having to back flush your bombs in terms of understanding what’s happened in the business, then you should be looking for a financial controller in terms of getting into the nuts and bolts of reporting activities in the factory, the number of tonnes, the tonnes use the scrap, what does that bomb, say? Are we producing more scrap than what the bombs? Do? We need to adjust that that affects our price? What about the process of steel Steel’s gone from it? You know, it went up 25% Down again in the last couple of years. And if you didn’t have somebody on the numbers there, you could have lost a lot of money in an organisation.

Gene Tunny  31:19

What was what were you saying bombs? Will you believe material are sorry?

Andrew Walker  31:25

We’re not going to blog, anything but

Gene Tunny  31:29

materials, materials that

Andrew Walker  31:30

you know, and that’s important. And and then when you in again, back to understanding that the lifecycle of a business Yeah, is there is a point when you’ve established yourself, you’ve got a good business, you’ve got a good product, you know, everything’s good, the culture is good. And you want to now do the big the big expansion, that’s when you start thinking, I need a CFO, if I’m going to IPO it, you know, listed or stake other stakeholders in or I want to exit Yeah, you know, that’s when you need them the CFO. So and it’s not around turnover or number of people, it’s around the type of business and how you operate within that business. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  32:09

As someone who works with a lot of businesses. Do you have any thoughts on this whole, you know, the private equity, sort of, you know, that industry, because I’ve had, well, I’ve had a guest on previously who’s over in Rhode Island. And what he does is he’s looking around for smaller businesses that he can come in, and he can take over and then and then sell at a later date improve things. So I’m just wondering, do you have any, do you have any thoughts on that? I mean, like, there’s a lot of, you know, there’s a lot of negativity out there about private equity, there are people sceptical over there are people who accuse private equity investors have been vultures. Any thoughts on private equity at all? Andrew, I

Andrew Walker  32:57

think I think back everything, this is a spectrum of private equity companies. And if I could define it in the, at one end of the scale, they probably private equity, who want to buy a good business, and they can offer their investors a better return. So they don’t actually do anything, they try and buy low, and then they provide a bigger return. So if you, if you’re in high net worth individual, and you’ve got a couple of million, you want to check in with some of your mates, you can buy business, and you’ll probably get a better return than you would with the banks. But there’s obviously risk with that. So you get private equity that fill that space, and then manage the company. And sometimes you do find, you know, private equities, they have it for three or four years, and then they flick it on to another private equity, and it just keeps rolling around in terms of, but what they’re doing is giving their their investors a better return than what they would have got elsewhere. So that’s the one scale. Yeah, he got to the other scale, you get the private equity, who are looking for the roller. So for example, there have been a few good ones like that the vets the greed, CrossFit story, where they went around and rounded up all the small private vets and brought them into a single group got purchasing power, and helped them with their business, streamline their processes, and then IPO that and made a lot of money out of it. So you get to two scales and like everything, there’s good accountants, but I in my presentations, I have the good, the ugly, what’s the good, the bad and the ugly? And in that spectrum, you know, it’s the it’s a wide spectrum of people out there all looking to make some money and it’s how they do it.

Gene Tunny  34:40

Yeah, gotcha. Okay. Okay. Now, what are the big business trends you’re seeing at the moment? Andrew, do you have any thoughts on AI, for example, how that’s impacting Oh,

Andrew Walker  34:52

that’s, uh, I think in my area, I think we’ve got a long way to go. You know, everybody’s got this buzzword and we can all look up chat, GP or PIO, and get a big download of a whole lot of stuff. And I think we smart. But I think in the finance world, we’ve got this great opportunity to actually develop AI. But it’s going to take, you have to teach AI to produce what you want, for example, so analysing businesses, financial businesses, and then using AI, to, to benchmark that business against the local industry, in terms of what’s out there. And the National, and maybe the international share prices, exchange rates, all those things could have a big impact as your business is growing to use AI to, to give you some kind of understanding on what to do within your business. But I think we saw a long way before we get to that. I mean, AI is getting implemented in a lot of the software to be able to do that now and the software that I’m using jet ox, they’ve got a module on AI. And so you know, we, the, the corporate performance models are really starting to introduce that. But I think we slow way off. But it’s going to be like steel, steel, steel belt tires versus Canvas, you know, what’s ever going to happen. And when they crossed, it was almost exponentially he went to steel belt. So I think there’s going to be a point where AI will just really take off. Yeah, so what’s jet ox again, that jet ox is the software I use to do that I’ve used to develop my modelling. So it’s a big corporate performance management software, right, that big corporations are using in terms of producing this new way financials, their dashboards, because it can drill into different systems, financial, non financial, the ERP systems, and pull that data in and then create dashboards for for managers and team leaders and supervisors to see where they’re going. But then it also links it to the financial, so then you can start pulling your financial in and have really good quality ratios around using non financial data and financial data and creating activities around how do I improve the

Gene Tunny  37:07

business? Gotcha. Now this, hopefully, you can answer this, I think you can answer this question because it’s something I’ve always wondered. And I’ve sort of vaguely a sort of a vague understanding of what SAP or SAP is that system, what is it and how does it relate to the jet ox? Okay,

Andrew Walker  37:24

so, yeah, that’s, that’s an interesting question, because it blows open a hole. Right? In terms of, if we start on the other end of the scale, you’ve got my OB, and you’ve got zero and all these packages. And they produce financial results. And then what they’ve done is they’ve linked other applications or apps to create other kinds of things around the financials, the payroll, or CRM packages, Customer Relationship Management packages. And that’s it. It’s a very small thing. S AP is right at the top where they try and do all of that for you in one package. Right? Which makes it really expensive. Yeah, because then you also almost are actually customising the software to suit your business. Yes. And the business has changed. I think in Australia, there’s a lot of small to medium sized businesses and SAP are now coming up with as it was, I don’t know how long it’s been out. But it’s a PB one, which is for smaller businesses. Because I’ve seen there’s an opportunity in the market. But you know, all the software you finding, they can’t cater for everything, you’d have a really good software package that looks after an engineering shop is a cut up so they’d have the nesting of how you cut your, your laser cutter to not only one big sheet of steel, you’d want to nest all the products on once you get maximum use of the steel. And all so that’s been designed by a really intelligent engineer understanding that business Yeah, but he has no idea of financials or raw customer relationship. So then you have these add ons. Yeah, where’s SAP tries to do everything in one raw. Okay, so jet oxen sits on top of those, that software not not SAP, where you’ve got an ERP system, you’ve got Salesforce manager, you’ve got a financial package with sage or BB or QuickBooks or NetSuite, whatever it is, and you can draw it and he’s competing in, in the space of Power BI, which I don’t really write in terms of raw of widget oxes because jeddaks is right up there with some of the top players.

Gene Tunny  39:43

Okay, I’m gonna have to look at jedoch so I haven’t come across it before.

Andrew Walker  39:47

It’s new in Australia. Yeah, um, practice. One of the gold partners of Jeddaks

Gene Tunny  39:53

Oh, great. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, definitely have to check it out. I think what what you’re This discussion is highlighting to me just how challenging it is really, if you’re in a corporation, you’re in a business or any, you know, even an SME, just how challenging it is getting across all of the data or the financial and performance information within your business. And that’s why you need to have those systems and you need someone like yourself or, or a team that can actually drive it and make sure all the data are sort of, you’re getting the data you need, and is producing those reports that are necessary to make the decision so you can move in time to take advantage of the opportunities

Andrew Walker  40:35

that are in that it’s very interesting, because there’s so much data coming at us new skill, in my view, is is how to interpret that data quickly. Yeah, and get it in a succinct format to make decisions. Yeah, and now you get in every way you look, whatever you’re doing, there’s a data recording. When you’re shopping at Coles or woollies, or you know, all that’s happening all the time. And so those suppliers, and those manufacturers and producers are getting all that data and there’s a there’s an opportunity or not an opportunity. But it’s it’s a problem, because you can end up with data overload. Ron and organisation. So you’ve got to have the skill to be saying, what data do I need out of all this data? And how do I best presented to understand what’s happening in a trend? Or and then make decisions on it? Yeah, and just coming back to your previous question, genius, you have all these systems. And what I believe is, you’ve got to create the electronic thread through your business. And that that thread takes every single system and it weaves its way through. And once you get this electronic thread, you’re actually creating a competitive advantage that nobody can steal. If you make a product, people will take the product, they’ll reengineer it, they’ll ship it to an offshore country, and have it manufactured and come in and smash your costs to your selling price and, and take your market. But if you’re a business, and you’ve got an electronic pipeline, that links your front end of the business, the customer end right down to cash in the bank, the inquiry all the way through to cash in the bank. And if you if you work on getting that really efficient, what it does is nobody can steal it, they can steal people out of your organisation, but that could actually creates a really good culture. And it also then what it does, it makes your systems efficient. So you can put more volume through that swelling the belly. Andrew, do you have any? And

Gene Tunny  42:37

I know this is almost an impossible question to answer. But do you have any feeling for what you know what percentage improvement across industries we could get from? You know, just sorting this sort of stuff out? Right? For, you know, among, among businesses out there? Because it sounds like, look, there are a lot of the sounds, it sounds like there’s potentially a lot of inefficiency or a lot of bad processes that that need to be fixed up across businesses in even in advanced economies, such as Australia. I mean, obviously, we’re, we’re probably far ahead of businesses and some other countries, but what’s the what’s Do you have a general feel for that?

Andrew Walker  43:16

Ah, I think in the businesses operating with small to medium, you know, Bologna, 100 million turnover. Every business, I walk into this opportunity, every single and but the problem is, is people don’t recognise that the owners believe the business they’ve created, they’ve developed it, and you’ve got to have a catastrophic event to happen for them to say, I need help. And that’s, you know, where were you then get the introduction into going into these businesses, and then creating the opportunity? I think, in every single business I’ve worked in over the last 1617 years in Australia, I’ve created increased wealth for for the owners, what percentage and how does that relate from, from your point of view of the macro environment? I couldn’t I wouldn’t even ever guess at a time. That’s

Gene Tunny  44:06

okay. It’s one of those very difficult questions to answer. I’ll have to look to the economic literature and see if anyone’s tried to quantify that that recently, because there are all sorts of studies of, of, you know, how far firms are from the world’s best practice, or you know, what they call the efficiency frontier? Yep. So I might go back and look at that literature and see what that says, but just just chatting with you. It occurs to me too. I mean, yeah, there could be some real productivity gains that we could make in our economy. And that gets me thinking. And, you know, if you’re thinking productivity, you probably shouldn’t then government, but is there is there anything government should be doing? Are there any policy levers that should be that could be pulled or changes in In tax or regulatory settings, do you have any thoughts on that? You’ve gotten

Andrew Walker  45:04

into the big macro worlds? Yeah, in terms of taxes and reducing taxes. And, and that’s those are all very complex discussions to bring down into something simple. I think, you know, I said to most of my clients say always bitching about paying too much tax. Yeah, I say to them, You know what, the more tax you paint means you’re more successful. So let’s get away from, you know, worrying about that to focus on your business, and drive your business rather than worrying about tax and regulations and things like that. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  45:35

I think that’s a really good point. Now, just going back to our discussion of the risks, and one of the risks is, you’re not you’re not managing your cash, well, you’re not actually accounting properly for the fact you will owe tax in the future. And so so many businesses get into into trouble like that. And now the ATO our tax, our Australian Taxation Office, they’re chasing our businesses, and they’ve been pretty hard headed. Yeah, really aggressive about it. And then that’s what’s driving up the insolvencies to an extent here,

Andrew Walker  46:06

I think that’s a bit of a lag from the COVID era that people businesses that should have gone, gone to the wall then survived through job keeper, those sorts of things. And but I think we now seen that and we also seen the person insolvency starting to come through they also up a lot higher compared to the previous year. Yeah, I think that’s a hangover from the COVID days. Yeah. But you know, I mean, if you look at what why did why businesses, why did they go insolvent or be put into administration? And I would say, 80 to 90% of the time, it’s management, it’s bad management in the organisation, you’re going to have catastrophic events, major data fails on you. But as management, you would have seen it, it’s a large data. How did you do the risks? What risks did you take? Did you take insurance on it? So? Yeah, I think that yeah, in terms of, of businesses, and risks, and cash, if you’re running your business well, and you can see the margins and you’re getting monthly reporting happening, that is where you actually drive the business. But if you have a bookkeeper who’s been doing the work and is now in that elevated position, they don’t understand the importance of of producing results three or four days after month in and out of interest from Alan Jackson and and if you know Alan Jackson, he used to sit on the reserve, the Australian Reserve Bank, O ra going back, I don’t know 2025 years ago, when I was going through the BTR thing I had to ask the comptroller for Africa for Dunlop, and three days off the mantained i to produce to London, a set of turnover and operating profits for the Dunlop business in Africa. Yeah, in seven days, I had to produce a set of financials three way with the reconciliation waterfall analysis. And by day 10 We were in the boardroom was Alan Jackson and he wasn’t a con man. He was a real driver. He took the business from, I think about 700 million to $3.4 billion and increased operating profit from I think 14% of sales up to 16%. So he drove that business but one of the real principles on that was monthly financial reporting as quickly as possible and if you didn’t get it I tell you the phone was red hot. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  48:25

so just what was the abbreviation BTR a

Andrew Walker  48:29

Bter? BT and Alex I think Australia as BT in the UK, the listing was BT RPL and yeah, so um, Dunlop. They had a lot of businesses. The African element was, was all around the Dunlop products Slazenger, golf balls, cricket pads, rubber conveyors and all that sort of thing. We used to call it blood tears and repression. And Alan Jackson was, yeah, Alan

Gene Tunny  48:56

Jackson was the CEO to look at look it up. And that it was that an operating profit? Increase? You’re talking about like it sounded. There was hugely impressive. Do you know how that roughly what he did? I mean, it was at all he went on acquisitions.

Andrew Walker  49:11

Right. And he grew the business through acquisitions. But then there was a very strong once I’ve taken over a business, I had a very clear plan. Yeah, this is what’s going to happen. That done the due diligence properly, okay, people that needed to go left on the day, they had the team that were taking over stepping in. And then I had the financial performance, the last three years driven to their standard, and you were expected by the next month to be reporting in their level and they reviewed him and he’s his CFO, Kathleen O’Donovan. Yeah, they used to just keep going around the world. All the locations, so we, we, we’d seem Tinder is regularly or every month in and they would be going through our financials because they had standard throughout the world. So yeah, say the financials in a When I was running the Zimbabwean business we had, we had, we had a coffin business in Zimbabwe, it was prospering because of the, the Isaac. But we had a set of financials, which would have been the same as a company in Coventry, producing CV joints. And that’s how they drive the business. And that’s why finance departments and good financial people in your organisation are important to take it to the next level.

Gene Tunny  50:26

Yeah, it sounds like they were very hands on. You said they were travelling and visiting the businesses. Yeah. Yeah. That’s fascinating. Yeah, not to have to look, look more into that. Anything else we’ve we’ve missed Andrew. I mean, I’ve enjoyed learning about all of this. And it’s, it’s made me think more about the the, you know, the importance of understanding your what is driving profitability, and really getting across that. And then all of the data, the the number crunching that needs to be done, and

Andrew Walker  50:57

let’s come in, as I’ve just said, every month, you’ve got to be reviewing that every month, because people they get one month, and then it just wanes, going to have that, that, that good discipline, and routine happening in your business to then take action to make sure you you’re taking the action in a timely manner. The other thing I think, is, what I found is a lot of businesses don’t actually look at cash flow. And then try and project it forward and come across a lot of financial people, it’s too hard to forecast your cash. Well, no, you do the best you’ve got with the current information. And then you keep tweaking it. And every time you’re doing that you’re getting better at it. And I always say to my clients, when I come on board with them, let’s get the cash flow, three months, six months ahead. So we can know in three or four months time we’re going to hit a problem. Yeah, you can deal with it now. Other discount your products, get cash in or, or have a chat to the ATO and try and extend your terms of payment or whatever, or talk to the landlord. There’s lots of ways to manage your cash and that seems to be lacking. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  52:01

I mean, I do that myself in my business. Just because I’ve learned what one I’ve learned from experience, it’s important to do it and, and to we also did it in in government in Treasury because we needed to make sure that the the Australian Government had enough money, like day to day in the, in the official public account, the Reserve Bank, so the the team at the Australian Office of Financial Management used to do a detailed daily cash forecast for the Australian Government. And yeah, they, you know, they managed to do it. And, you know, the Australian Government is being hit by all sorts of shocks all the time. So, yeah, I think the Australian government can do it, your own small business can do it. That’s a lot less complicated than the Australian Government. I’m

Andrew Walker  52:45

sure it is. But yeah, but that’s a key element of of understanding your business. And that’s from the finance department.

Gene Tunny  52:51

Yeah, absolutely. Okay, Andrew, this has been terrific. Any anything? We’ve missed anything else you’d like to add?

Andrew Walker  52:57

Um, no, not really. I think I mean, there’s a lot of topics we could feel like talking down going down different elements of this. But yeah, and I think for business now is, you know, if we look at it, look at your finance department. And I’ve been doing some, some presentations to different groups around the blank box, opening the financial blank. And I get, I get the CEOs that come to the thing, the presentation to score the finance departments in two different ways that gut feel, yeah. And then score on performance around management accounts. How long do they take? Budgeting, forecasting? zero based budget? All those things? Yeah. And I think I’ve probably, I’ve just I’ve had present, I’ve done presentations to probably about, it must be in excess of a billion dollars of companies all added up an annual turnover. And, you know, What surprises me is it’s 50%, the satisfaction ratio of the CEO, and his finance department is a 50% level. That is, that is frightening.

Gene Tunny  54:06

Yeah, at the moment that the current labour for you

Andrew Walker  54:09

Yeah. And then I go through the whole process with them. And then, and then are related back. How much are you paying these people? Yeah, and you only have 50%. And it’s funny, I said to the one guy said, If you bought if you bought your fancy Maserati, yeah. And then any came was one wheel, how would you feel about it? So, you know, you’ve rented your finance department at 50% value producing the car with two wheels, you know, and so, and I think that’s where I have a problem. It’s my own profession, you know, but I think there’s a really there’s no real standard in in in how financial departments should perform. You look at it manufacturing, they have to produce the product with quality, service with quality or the report with quality. When it comes to the finance department. The scale of a printout out of the system, which is used is used There’s a chocolate via God to a proper set of financials. It is just so broad and a lot of CEOs don’t actually understand it. And so I spent a lot of time on doing presentations to make people aware. What should a good financial department deliver? Okay,

Gene Tunny  55:15

I want to put some links into if there are any presentations you’ve got in the public domain, Andrew, I can put links to them. And I’ll also put a glossary and we’ve covered some yeah, there’s some interesting new terms the the delivery in full on time the die fight. I love that. I’m going to start using that. And the bomb the vom the bill of materials. That’s a good one, too. Very good. Okay. Henry Walker. Thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed the conversation.

Andrew Walker  55:44

Yeah, that was good to be a gene and always happy to come back and maybe explore a sliver of dollars because there’s a lot of detail in this. Absolutely.

Gene Tunny  55:52

I think I think we might have to do that. So Andrew again, thanks so much. Yeah, thank you, Rod. Oh, thanks for listening to this episode of Economics Explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact@economicsexplored.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if you’re podcasting outlets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

56:46

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this or to begin your own podcasting journey. Head on over to obsidian-productions.com

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Alternative Investments & Investable Mega-Trends w/ Ben Fraser, Aspen Funds – EP231

Ben Fraser, Managing Director of Aspen Funds, argues “there’s a huge opportunity to get into fossil fuel production.” He discusses macro-driven alternative investments, investable megatrends, including the disruption to energy markets as advanced economies decarbonise, and the outlook for the US economy, particularly inflation. Disclaimer: this episode presents general information only and is not financial or investment advice. 

Please get in touch with us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google PodcastsApple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest: Ben Fraser 

Ben Fraser is the Chief Investment Officer at Aspen Funds, where he combines his analytical nature with a passion for delivering outstanding client service and strong returns through out-of-the-box investments. With a professional background that spans over a decade, Ben has become an expert in the field of investment management and has worked for several reputable financial institutions.

Ben is the co-host of the Invest Like a Billionaire podcast, where he joins his father, Robert, co-founder and CFO of Aspen Funds, along with co-founder Jim Maffuccio, to discuss economic trends and best practices for alternative investing.

Prior to joining Aspen, Ben served as a Commercial Lender at First Business Bank, one of the top SBA lenders in the nation. There, he specialized in government-backed loan originations, specifically SBA and USDA loans. Before that, he worked as a Commercial Credit Underwriter for Crossfirst Bank, where he personally underwrote over $125MM in C&I and CRE loans across various industries.

Ben also has experience working in the asset management industry, having served as a key member of the team at Tortoise Capital Advisors. At Tortoise, he helped grow institutional managed accounts from ~$3BN AUM to ~$7BN AUM.

Ben holds an MBA from Azusa Pacific University and a Bachelor of Science in Finance from the University of Kansas, where he graduated magna cum laude. Ben’s commitment to excellence and his ability to deliver strong returns for clients make him an invaluable asset to the Aspen Funds team.

What’s covered in EP231

  • 00:00:04 – Global Energy from Fossil Fuels (excerpt from interview)
  • 00:00:33 – Introduction to Economics Explored Podcast
  • 00:01:06 – Guest Introduction: Ben Fraser of Aspen Funds
  • 00:02:08 – Aspen Funds’ Investment Focus
  • 00:05:17 – Accredited Investors and Investment Opportunities
  • 00:06:04 – Expanding Accredited Investor Definitions
  • 00:08:47 – Alternative Investments and Client Strategy
  • 00:11:29 – Investable Megatrends for the Next Decade
  • 00:13:03 – Inflation and Energy Market Outlook
  • 00:15:37 – Private Credit in Real Estate
  • 00:20:37 – Commercial Real Estate Market Dynamics
  • 00:23:42 – Energy Investments and Fossil Fuel Outlook
  • 00:29:10 – OPEC’s Influence on Oil Prices
  • 00:31:28 – Gold, Bitcoin, and Investment Hedges
  • 00:35:09 – US Fiscal Policy and Debt Concerns
  • 00:38:40 – Closing Remarks

Takeaways

  1. Macro-Driven Alternative Investments: Aspen Funds focuses on macro-driven alternative investments, which involve understanding long-term economic trends to identify investment opportunities.
  2. Investable Megatrends: Aspen Funds has identified investable megatrends for the next decade, including higher inflation for longer and an energy crisis due to a transition to green energy.
  3. Opportunities in Real Estate: Aspen Funds sees opportunities in private credit within the real estate market, particularly in the midsection of the capital stack, where risk can be reduced while achieving good returns.
  4. Energy Market Insights: Ben Fraser discusses the impact of transitioning to green energy on fossil fuel production, highlighting potential supply shortages and investment opportunities in fossil fuel production.
  5. Views on Gold and Bitcoin: Ben Fraser comments on gold and Bitcoin as alternative investments, acknowledging their role as hedges against fiat currency but cautioning against heavy allocations due to the risks involved.

Links relevant to the conversation

Aspen Funds

Invest Like a Billionaire Podcast 

Transcript: Alternative Investments & Investable Mega-Trends w/ Ben Fraser, Aspen Funds – EP231

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Ben Fraser  00:04

Right now about I think it’s 83% of all of our global energy needs come from fossil fuels. And that’s usually pretty shocking number for people to hear. They think we’re way farther along. Right. You mentioned nucular, which I’m a huge proponent of, but that only makes up I think it’s less than 5% of total global energy needs.

Gene Tunny  00:33

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning in to the show. This episode, we’re joined by Ben Fraser, Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer of aspen funds, which offers alternative investment opportunities for accredited investors that concentrates on real estate credit and energy markets. In this episode, Ben explains what he means by macro driven alternative investments. Ben and I discuss what he sees as investable mega trends. And we also talk about the outlook for interest rates in the US economy. Among other things, venture is some great insights into what’s coming up in energy markets as advanced economies decarbonize right, oh, we’d better get into it. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Ben Fraser of aspen funds. Then Fraser from Aspen fans, welcome to the programme.

Ben Fraser  01:50

Hey, thanks for having me, Jean.

Gene Tunny  01:52

Oh, it’s good to have you on Ben. And I’ve been listening to episodes of your invest like a billionaire podcast that you do with your father. So good work on that. And I’ve got a couple of questions coming from that, to start with grass. Q, what’s the what’s the pitch of aspen fans? Like, based on what I’ve seen, you’re focused on macro driven alternative investments. What do you mean by that, then?

Ben Fraser  02:21

Yeah, well, great question. And, you know, it really kind of ties in both to our podcast platform as well as what we do on the investment side. But the podcast invests like a billionaire is really intended to educate, you know, what I call the everyday millionaire strategies and tactics that the ultra wealthy are using, and have been using for many, many decades in growing and preserving their wealth. And usually, the biggest difference for what we find from the ultra wealthy calm institutional investors, family offices, the endowments, and pensions, relative to say the retail or the everyday millionaire, is the allocation to alternative investments, and specifically private alternatives. And that usually is comprised of the private equity, hedge funds and real estate really being one of the bigger ones. And so what we’ve found is there’s a huge gap of knowledge for the retail investors in understanding how to invest these asset classes. That’s really kind of what we we focus on. But then comes the question of, well, where do I invest, because there’s a myriad of opportunities to invest in kind of the alternative space. So then we use our framework that we tagged, you know, macro driven alternative investments, and really comes from the experience a lot from my father’s background, which we could talk a little bit about this, this driven kind of focus here of our economic themes. But really, the whole idea behind the tides are different than the waves, right? We can understand that there’s economic tides that are you know, seismic level shifts that happen usually over a slow period of time like these, these tectonic plates that are shifting, right. And we don’t really necessarily does nothing big are kind of boring, you kind of see it happening. But those create the the tailwinds the rising tide that lifts all boats that position you if you’re as an investor in pay attention to these, and a way to outperform because of where you’re positioned. And so what we usually kind of use that phrase for macro driven is we’re looking at it top down approach, we’re looking at what are the long term economic trends that are creating opportunities that then we can take advantage of as investors and outperform over a period of time from a allocation perspective, not just a individual investment perspective? Rod

Gene Tunny  04:58

Okay. So, your, your clients, the people who invest with you, you’re focused on accredited investors, is that right? So that’s a segment of the market where people have a particular level of income or level of net worth, is that correct? Right?

Ben Fraser  05:16

Yeah. So you’re in the US, we have a definition called accredited investors. And that’s basically driven by the SEC that says, you have to meet some minimum requirements to be able to invest in a lot of these types of deals. And so it’s really kind of driven from the regulation side of it, though, we do try to educate people that aren’t quite there, you know, the not quite yet accredited, because there are opportunities, and we actually believe the expansion of that definition will continue to go downstream. Because some of the changes they’ve made to the rules for accreditation have actually been expansionary to include more people over the past decade. And so we’re hopeful that they continue to make it more accessible for people. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  06:04

yeah, I’m interested in that, because I’ve been listening to Tony Robbins, his latest book, The Holy Grail of investing. And I mean, he has a case talking about the value of alternative investments. And he’s saying that a lot of people are locked out of them. Because of they don’t meet this accredited investor threshold. And I think he mentioned that there is or there was an act of Congress last year that is requiring the SEC to now bring in a test whereby you can establish your credentials as an accredited investor, if you pass the test to do you know where that’s up to you? Is that something you’re following, then? Absolutely, yeah,

Ben Fraser  06:46

that’s, that’s a pretty big deal. That’s kind of what I was referring to is, you know, from, from our standpoint, having a certain number financially, whether the income you make or the net worth you have is is an okay proxy to establish? Are you sophisticated enough to invest in something as gentle if you have to make a good amount of money and you have a lot of money? You know, theoretically, you’re, you’re, you’re smart enough to make these decisions. But what about the people that have studied this as a career and they’re maybe earlier in their career, and they want to make inroads into the alternative space, they’re trying to expand it based on knowledge, not just purely based on financial status. And so I don’t know the exact status of over that sat, it seems to me from what I’ve read recently, that that is either in play currently or about to be in play as an option. So it still requires a test, right. And there’s, you know, something you have to pass, I don’t think it’s terribly difficult, but it is an extra layer. But by doing that, you can, theoretically become accredited just through passing a test. Now, they’ve also included, they did this couple of years back where they, if you worked for a provider of alternative investments and operator or sponsor, after one year anniversary, you become what’s called a knowledgeable employee, to where you now have access to invest as an accredited investor into these types of investments that are being offered by your firm. And so, you know, I’ve told young people and love people that work for me, you know, I’m encouraging them to hit that one year mark, as to, hey, you’re now credited. So, you know, we’re going to try and wait minimums, or we can and make it easier for you to participate in a way that it’s comfortable for you at this point. But yeah, there’s definitely a cool trend for that. And we’re hoping that it continues, because there’s definitely some pretty big advantages when investing in alternatives. Right

Gene Tunny  08:47

now, I mean, the alternative investments so they can bring higher returns, obviously, there’s higher risk associated with that. Well, how does it work? I mean, if I come to you, so say, I’m a high net worth individual and I come to you and invest the funds, I come to Aspen funds, do we sit down? Or do you work out a portfolio? Do you say, you work out there’s this allocation, alternative investments is this much in domestic equities, this much international this much fixed income? How does that work? Ben?

Ben Fraser  09:18

Yeah, you know, it’s probably a little bit different than what you’re describing sounds more like meeting with a financial advisor. And, you know, to be clear, we’re not financial advisors. We don’t ever anticipate being that and I think there’s a role for a financial adviser, though, I do think a lot of the big shops they just kind of create echo chambers that don’t really know what they’re talking about and they just spout here’s the three things you should do. And honestly, isn’t that helpful, but we actually work with a lot of investment advisors that understand the importance of alternatives in a portfolio and actually are pretty big feeder system for us to help their clients allocate to what we’re working on. But you know, Working with us, it’s it’s a little bit different in the sense of, we have a few different opportunities, right, and we try to present here’s the characteristics of both the risk and the reward of each set of opportunities. Here’s the reason why we like you, I believe it. But ultimately, it’s up to you to decide what fits your investment profile, what fits the status of where you’re at, in your career, and your areas, spectrum and all those kinds of things, then, you know, we can help provide information, but we actually legally cannot give advice because we’re not advisors. So it’s really more of a here’s, here’s all the options, you get to pick and choose what what works best for you. And I always recommend, right finding an advisor that likes alternatives can be actually a great resource because they can help you not only on the portfolio allocation standpoint, a lot of times they can help you on the tax implications, and the basic financial planning of say, a budget and those kind of things. Estate planning, asset protection, a lot of broader topics that are important, but way outside the scope of what I’m an expert in, right.

Gene Tunny  11:06

Okay, gotcha. On your website on the Aspen funds website, which I’ll link to, in the show notes, or might have been on your podcast website, you’ve got the there’s a webinar about investable mega trends for the next decade. Could you tell us so what are some of those mega trends that you’re looking out for?

Ben Fraser  11:29

Yeah, so it kind of stems back from our approach of finding the best opportunities. And, you know, what’s, what’s different about us and maybe other operators, or sponsors of investment offerings is we’re not a hammer and everything is a nail, right? Well we try to do is identify where are the opportunities first, right, without any dog in the fight without us forcing a square peg into a round hole. And then we’ll actually create the strategies, build the teams, and put together these kind of investor friendly structures. And in terms to put together an offer that fits is supported by by these trends. So for us, it really comes down to where do we really believe the opportunity is because that sets the, the, you know, the next levels of dominoes to determine what how we present offerings for investors. And so, our research, we kind of consolidated into what we call an investable megatrends for the next decade. And so we these are trends that we believe are in play right now, and will be in play for a long period of time, that are really shaping the economy, and both right now and in the future. And those that are standing up, see this, and position themselves will be rewarded by the market. And so that’s really how we’re looking at it, you know, some of the things and we have a whole presentation, it’s a very long presentation. So I won’t get to all the details in this interview. But you know, some of the snippets, and we’ve been saying this for a little while, is we believe inflation is going to be higher for longer. And that has now become more popular sentiment. But you know, was it for for a period of time where inflation is more transitory. This is a short term phenomena. And there’s really two reasons that we believe are driving inflation likely been higher for longer. And this is, again, mostly in the US. But one of those being the huge labour shortage. And so we’ve really, since COVID, ended pressures in the BNF cover, we had a huge spike in unemployment. And then that kind of came down. There’s an interesting chart that we have in our presentations that, you know, shows there’s this huge gap that has continued to grow over the course of the past year to have job openings relative to those looking for full time employment. And it’s a pretty big gap by a factor of a million to several million job openings that can’t be filled. And a lot of it’s because the labour left the market after COVID, a lot of late stage career, folks took early retirement, a lot of dual income families went to single income and one of the spouses decide to stay home. And so the reason that’s important is the labour shortage puts a lot of pressure on wages increasing, which is very inflationary, because the primary driver of GDP is consumer spending. And so if the consumer continues to have more earnings, and they continue to spend that that will continue to contribute to a higher inflation number. And the other one is really we think it’s playing out right now, but we haven’t seen we go into the early stages of it and we think we’re at the early stages of a an energy crisis that we hadn’t seen in a long time. And it’s really going to be driven by a supply shortage of fossil fuels. As we’re making a transition into more green energy, renewable energy sources that is really being driven by a political narrative that, hey, as best as well, attention at its worst is creating a huge gap of understanding what it’s going to take to make this transition. And really putting ourselves in a really bad position from a production and supply standpoint of fossil fuels over the next several decades that we believe is going to be pretty, pretty severe.

Gene Tunny  15:38

Right? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we’ve got some of the world that energy issue here, arguably in Australia to their concerns about reliability of the network as our coal fired, power stations are decommissioned or shut down over the next couple of decades. And so that’s, that’s a big issue were grappling with here at the moment. And there’s a big debate about nuclear energy, and whether that’s an alternative and that that’s becoming incredibly political. Over here, so yeah, good points, then can ask how do they affect your, your investment strategies is mean, inflation higher for longer, okay. Yep. Yep. Yeah, that that’s, that’s plausible. And then the energy, shock or crisis, or whatever you want to call it? How does that affect your investment choices?

Ben Fraser  16:35

Yeah, absolutely. So if, if we believe inflation is going to be higher, for longer, it really kind of sets the stage for where opportunities will kind of be over the next several years. If that’s the case, right here in the US, the Federal Reserve is really become the point of a lot of conversation, a lot of emphasis in trying to decipher what their approach is going to be. And they’ve been pretty clear from the get go, Jerome Powell stated, they need to get to a sustained level of comfortable GDP growth, which he stayed is 2% and Intel, and when that happens, they’re going to maintain a more aggressive monetary policy to bring inflation back into check. And so obviously, we’ve come way down from the highs of a year or two ago, you know, six and 8%, inflation numbers, you know, we’re down into the threes, which feels like a huge, you know, improvement, which it is, but it’s still very far off the mark. And there may be periods where we kind of dip down to the twos potentially. But given the things I just shared, that we think are systemic issues that are going to be very inflationary, they’re gonna have a hard time keeping interest rates or inflation to where they want to be. And that really drives monetary policy and interest rates. And so we’ve seen, obviously here in the US the fastest increase in interest rates that we’ve ever seen, that has caused a pretty big shock through the commercial real estate market, that we think is still being digested and will really start to play out over the next price several years, depending on what happens, but what our approach is that because inflation is gonna be higher, for longer interest rates will likely be higher for longer, the markets already priced in several rate cuts. This year, I think that’s pretty optimistic, or even heard some economists say that they think we could see six rate cuts this year. I think that’s very, very optimistic, given some of the numbers we just saw reported for q4 for both GDP and unemployment numbers. And, you know, we’re actually even seeing a probability now have an interest rate increase in very small probability. But you know, that’s back on the table if these numbers continue to come in, and you know, beyond expectations, and so we’re this driving opportunity is where we kind of see the biggest opportunity in the real estate market right now is in private credit. And so what that means is playing in this kind of mid section of the capital stack, if you understand what that means, but basically, generally in every deal, you have a senior lender, and you have equity investors, right. And right now, both of these parts of the capital stack are standstills. The lenders are pulling back, they’re tightening credit, they don’t want to put more money out, thanks for getting nervous equity investors, they’re getting capital calls, they want to preserve cash, they don’t want to put more money into deals. And so it’s providing opportunity for the market to come in across the middle part of the capital stack. So you can actually reduce your risk because you can get priority of payment. And you can help inject Apple into a project that, you know has a great path to stabilisation, a great path to reach its ultimate value, but needs a little bit of capital to get there, you come in with with pretty incredible rates of return for pretty minimal risk at this point of credit cycle. So we think it’s a great opportunity, kind of in this transition of the credit cycle, to take advantage of well positioned real estate and good markets with good operators that just need a little bit of extra cash to kind of take it to that next level to make it through and ride out was probably gonna be a pretty bumpy ride in commercial real estate the next few years. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  20:37

yeah, for sure. So I saw your you know, I listened to your episode on what’s been happening with the banks, and he was stunned by just how bad commercial property suffered in the States during the pandemic, and I mean, we had a bit of that, but the, the the plunge in values looks a lot larger in the States. Where’s the market at now? I mean, what’s it like? I mean, are there just parts of CBDs? That are the empty office buildings? Is that is that essentially what’s going on? What what’s the what’s the story there, Ben? Yeah,

Ben Fraser  21:14

so it’s, it’s interesting, because you see the headlines saying commercial real estate is down 30% or 40%. And, you know, as we all know, headlines are usually exaggerated, exaggerating what’s really going on. And while there are certain parts of the market, they’ve definitely been impacted to that degree, what most people think of when they hear commercial real estate, when they think of the big distress. In course, real estate is office. And, you know, when I say commercial real estate, I mean, the whole broad spectrum of all types of real estate, including office, multifamily apartments, you know, single family residences, industrial properties, retail, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So there’s lots of components within that big category. And everyone’s performing differently. So there’s some measures of Office that say, Yeah, values are probably dropped 30 to 40%. And, you know, I still think it’s a knife that’s, that’s falling, that we don’t really know where it’s going to where it’s gonna land, because we don’t really know what the value of an office property is that, say 50% occupancy and not probably going to improve from here on, you know, what’s the use case of that property going forward? How much is it worth? Well, I think the market is trying to digest that. But in other asset classes, we’re seeing a pretty different story industrial real estate, it’s actually it’s probably the least impacted by some estimates, it’s maybe only been impacted five, maybe 10%. Values. Retail similar way, apartments are probably the next biggest impact. And a lot of it’s because some of these really hot markets here, the Sunbelt markets are, we’re we’re very, very, the guy very aggressive in the prices. And so we’re seeing kind of a tail off some of these these high prices, but long term trends still support strong values, and housing and multifamily. And so it’s really trying to decipher, you know, here’s the big the big picture narrative, but then where’s the real opportunity to where maybe there’s a dislocation between the headline understanding the narrative and the actual underlying data. And that’s we’re always trying to look for that gap. Because if the market believes there’s a big issue, but the data supports something different, that’s where you can kind of come in and capture the opportunity.

Gene Tunny  23:36

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  23:42

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with adept economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice. We can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world. You can get in touch via our website, www dot adapt economics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  24:11

Now back to the show. And what about energy? Ben? What what is your analysis? What does that tell you about where your investments should be focused?

Ben Fraser  24:25

Yeah, so try continuing what I was saying a minute ago on fossil fuels. We’ve really seen a pretty big shift or the past decade from investment into new production. And if you think about fossil fuels, it’s very different than real estate where real estate naturally appreciates. Over time with inflation. The fossil fuels naturally deplete over time as we pull more resources out of the ground, there’s less and reserves and by some estimates, it’s somewhere between you know, five to 8%. have total global production is depleted every year. So just by normal usage and demand, numbers, we’re depleting about 5% of all the production that we’re using every year. And just to maintain the same levels of production, there has to be new levels of investment to find, you know, new wells and new reservoirs and build out the infrastructure to increase production, or just to maintain production. So, what’s been interesting is about 10 years ago, we saw a pretty big shift from the the political narrative of the environmental societal governance standards that have been imposed on not only the operators of these assets, but also the capital allocators. And so a lot of the allocators that are investing into different energy verticals are being either penalised for investing in fossil fuels, or they’ve been rewarded for investing in renewables. So it’s created this incentive structure that is moving capital away from fossil fuel production and development into other technologies. And I’m not saying we should suspend all investment into green energy, you know, that, you know, to put on the fossil fuels, but we can’t do the the inverse of bomb or capitalist to new technologies and, and not realise the impact that would have in current energy needs. Because right now about, I think it’s 83% of all of our global energy needs come from fossil fuels. And that’s usually pretty shocking number for most people to hear they think we’re way farther along, right. You mentioned nuclear, which I’m a huge proponent of. But that only makes up I think it’s less than 5% of total global energy needs. And we’re not seeing these these big shifts, we’ve been trying to invest herbal energies for many, many decades. And so to think we’re going to be 100%, the transition to green energy in the next 10 years is just completely irrational. So what’s really happening is this lack of investment is going to cause a future supply issue, right, because as we’re not reinvesting that supply curves continuing to decline, and By most estimates, including the most far left leaning the most renewable, energy focused agencies are predicting that demand for fossil fuels will at least be the same 10 years from now, but most estimates actually anticipate that’d be higher, because we have population growth. And here, at least in America, and so they’re, you know, JP Morgan, just put out a report a month or so ago, predicting a 7.1 million barrel per day shortfall of oil and gas, actually just oil, just oil needs per day. By 2030. If if we don’t have a massive course correction. And so the opportunity is we really believe there’s a huge opportunity to get into fossil fuel production. So we’re investing a lot into these operating wells at really good prices. And we’re, we have pre distort prices right now. But we also think of the probabilities and, and, you know, there’s probabilities to the upside and price as we kind of go later into this energy. kind of issue. Yeah. Good

Gene Tunny  28:30

points there. It’s just I was just thinking that, you know, Saudi Arabia and, and Russia, they’ll be, they’ll be happy because you’re talking about oil, and, you know, potential, you know, shortages and, you know, implications for prices, higher prices in the future. They’ve been trying to engineer that, haven’t they recently, so there was a report in the Financial Times. Yesterday, so OPEC plus members extend production cuts in bid to boost oil price. So they, they’ve been trying to get that up. And it’s been, it’s been quite stubborn that even with all of the geopolitical tensions, I don’t know if you’ve been following that at all.

Ben Fraser  29:10

Yeah, yeah. Yeah. I mean, it’s there’s a lot of game that ship that goes on with with OPEC. And, I mean, what’s interesting, now people don’t realise is that the US is actually the largest exporter of oil in the world. Right. So Saudi Arabia is huge. And they’re, they’re a big player in this, but most people don’t realise that the US is actually the largest. So we have a pretty big place to play in this global geopolitical thing. But in the short term, there’s a lot of, you know, supply cuts or, you know, we’re going to flood the market and there’s a lot of kind of gamesmanship to a certain degree on the short term, you know, prices but at a certain point, you know, supply is inelastic because you can’t just flip a switch and all of a sudden, you know, we just have so much more oil there’s there’s a stir certain range, right, they can they can reduce supply the short term and just keep certain wells not producing. But if your capacity is x, you can’t do more than that, right. So at a certain point, there’s going to be this divergence between supply and demand. And I think that’s where, in a longer term timeframe, we’re gonna run into some bigger issues. But in the short term, I mean, I don’t mind higher oil prices, because I’m a seller of oil, because of my made the investments that we’ve made. So, you know, it’s been interesting to there’s been a lot of shift of the market from kind of years past, here in the US, at least, where, you know, they’re, they got a very aggressive and drill and very aggressive and trying to produce as much oil as possible, kind of flooding the market and got a little bit in front of their skis to where prices dropped massively. But the the market is kind of pulled back today was kind of like these higher oil prices, and we’re okay to, you know, not massively increased supply, because one we’re getting, you know, bad mouth from the politicians and two, will make a lot more when prices are high. And so it’s kind of created this really unique environment where we’re, we’re sitting it kind of elevated prices from a historical standpoint, and, you know, some of this interaction interplay between OPEC in the US, and, you know, other players of oil, like Russia, are, you know, intentionally keeping prices higher in the short term, and I think it’s only going to continue wrong.

Gene Tunny  31:29

Okay. That’s a good insights there, Ben. Now, before we go, I’ve got to ask, I’ve got some of my listeners would describe themselves as libertarian, and they’re very much in or they’re, they’re concerned, or they’re Austrian economists, you could say and they’re very much concerned about the actions of central banks and their money creation and all that and the risks of fiat money. And so they’re very, they’re very interested in gold and I see gold as you know, that’s what is it? It’s was it 2600 Or something an hour or maybe 2100 USD announcer saw the other day, so it’s getting it’s getting up there near the, the historic high. And, you know, so gold’s something that is up again and Bitcoin is dead, it’s had a bit of a surge, particularly since the these Bitcoin ETFs have been allowed. Do you have any thoughts on gold Bitcoin? Where does that fit into your evey alternative investments that you’re looking at?

Ben Fraser  32:33

Yeah, I think they definitely are categorised as alternative investments. This is outside the scope of what we invest in as Aspen. But we definitely comment on gold a lot in our podcast, because we have a lot of listeners probably like you that, you know, want to get have a hedge against, you know, fiat currency. And I mean, I haven’t been around the game, as long as some, but you know, to me, it’s whenever there is maybe undisciplined from central banks, all the gold bugs come out and say, See, we told you so and I think there’s an element of truth. But it also never plays out the way that they expect. It For Me, gold has always had an identity identity crisis, right? Is it a currency? Is it a hedge store value? I think there’s an element of it’s all the above. But I think Bitcoin is also confused the use case for gold as well. Right. And so I do think it’s good to have hedges, I think it’s good to have as a portion of the portfolio, just like a lot of these different things that we’re saying. But people that have really heavy allocations into gold and, and other Kryptos for that matter, I think, take a lot of extra risks, they probably don’t need to, because of, you know, some of these things that are hard to know where they go, I think, you know, the I used to be a much more staunch Austrian economist and, you know, hard money, kind of side of things. But from what we’ve seen since COVID, the modern monetary theory, principles have played out and just certain degree have kind of worked and I think I’ve had to kind of readjust some of my initial thoughts because we would have expected a massive amount of, of deflation throughout the game, we are seeing some higher inflation, but definitely not to the degree that of the stimulus and monetization of what we saw over the past few years. And so I think it definitely can drive higher inflation, but I think it’s only to a certain point. And meanwhile, we’re having a really strong assumer in the US a really strong economy from a GDP standpoint, that continues to support a stronger dollar and so, you know, I’m not, I’m not a, you know, gonna take a big bet against the dollar. anytime soon. And, you know, I think it’s good to have edges, just like anything. But I also think it’s important to have have that imbalance and and measure.

Gene Tunny  35:08

Gotcha. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I wouldn’t be necessarily betting against it anytime soon that that’s for sure. One thing I guess I should ask because just before we go, because this is something that does, as an external observer, looking at the US and looking at the budget situation, and that big structural deficit that the federal government has, and the debt to GDP ratio just keeps climbing. And, you know, you’re always there’s always talk of a potential shutdown from time to time. And it just, I just wonder, Where are we going to get to a point where there will be a US fiscal crisis at some stage, I’ve had one guest on from Cato Institute’s she was warning against that in the future. Do do you have concerns about the state of US public finances?

Ben Fraser  36:01

Yeah. I mean, it’s no one likes a budget deficit, right. I mean, there’s a lot of reasons that doesn’t work. The thing that’s interesting now is the US of all developed economies, you know, is doing the same thing everyone else is doing, and probably to a lesser degree from a debt to GDP GDP standpoint, you know, we we have one of the better ratios. And you also think about inflation, what does that do to borrowers? Right, it benefits borrowers, if you have higher inflation, the value of the dollars, you take on now, and you pay back later are worth less. And so the US government being the largest borrower, I don’t think I think they want to get inflation down for other reasons, you know, whether it’s political or keep the economy in check, but they also don’t mind a little bit of extra inflation in the short term to erode the value that they gotta pay back. I think the bigger question becomes, at a certain point, do you know government bonds become less attractive than, than other countries and people aren’t willing to take the risk on the government be able to pay back the all the money they’re printing? So I think, at a certain point, yeah, maybe the, you know, that things have big fiscal breakdown. But as of now, I don’t see that happening. Is it happening anytime soon? And, you know, when we’re able to continue to pray, and we saw buyers for, you know, all the bonds, then we can continue to keep it going.

Gene Tunny  37:37

Yeah, that seems to it seems to be the case for the moment. It’s interesting. You mentioned the Yeah, it doesn’t look as bad as some other countries. I mean, you’re talking about I suppose Japan and Greece, I mean, Japan show that you could actually, oh, it’s just extraordinary what Japan has been able to get away with for decades now. Yeah. And the US seems to be, you know, just just keeps going along there. The other point you may, which is a good one is on inflation and inflation, eroding the real value of the debt that’s got to be paid back. There was a famous study by I think it was Robert Eisner in the late 80s, which showed that a lot of the the budget deficit was in the 80s was being offset by that reduction in the real value of the debt, which was quite a clever paper at the time. I put a link in the show notes. It’s very good. Good piece of work. Yeah. Yeah. But I’ve been it’s been terrific. Any, any final points before we wrap up? Now?

Ben Fraser  38:34

This is a fun conversation. And I love love the good question. So appreciate you having me on.

Gene Tunny  38:40

Very good Ben. We’ll all put a link in the show notes to Aspen funds and also invest like a billionaire podcast, which I’ll definitely recommend. I’ve been getting some great insights out of it. I think you’ve got a great interaction with your with your dad on the show. So yeah, really, really good stuff. So again, thanks so much for your time.

Ben Fraser  38:57

I appreciate it dude with fun

Gene Tunny  39:00

rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

39:47

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this where to begin your own podcasting journey head on over to obsidian-productions.com

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple PodcastsGoogle Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Exit mobile version