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The Gender Pay Debate: Understanding the Factors Behind the Gap w/ Dr Leonora Risse – EP230

This episode of Economics Explored analyzes Australia’s new gender pay gap data reported by large companies. Are the data useful or are they nonsense, as some critics have alleged? Host Gene Tunny interviews Dr Leonora Risse to discuss the methodology, findings, and criticisms of the report. Risse provides context on factors influencing the gender pay gap, like occupational segregation. Tunny and Risse also debate the impact of societal norms and long work hours or ‘greedy jobs’. While acknowledging limitations, Risse argues the data highlights the need to address remaining gender inequities. 

Please get in touch with us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

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About this episode’s guest Dr Leonora Risse

Dr Leonora Risse is an Associate Professor in Economics at the University of Canberra and a Research Fellow with the Women’s Leadership Institute Australia and serves as an Expert Panel Member on gender pay equity for the Fair Work Commission. She formerly held roles with the Women and Public Policy Program at Harvard University, the Australian Government Productivity Commission, and RMIT University. She earned her PhD in Economics from the University of Queensland. Leonora is a co-founder and former National Chair of the Women in Economics Network (WEN) in Australia.

What’s covered in EP230

  • Introduction to the Episode and Topic (00:36)
  • Overview of Gender Pay Gap Data Reporting (02:59)
  • Calculation and Implications of Gender Pay Gap Data (04:48)
  • Insights on Compositional Factors and Industry Dynamics (16:28 & 16:41)
  • Critical Analysis of Gender Pay Gap Reporting (33:29)
  • Claudia Goldin’s Work and Nobel Prize Discussion (41:02)

Takeaways

  1. The new gender pay gap data reveal significant disparities across companies in male and female median earnings, with factors like occupation and industry composition playing crucial roles.
  2. In Leonora’s view, transparency in reporting pay gaps is crucial for raising awareness but also poses some risks of normalization and misinterpretation.
  3. Leonora argues societal norms and gender biases significantly influence occupational choices and bargaining power, contributing to the gender pay gap.
  4. Future research and data analysis are essential for understanding the drivers of the gender pay gap. 

Links relevant to the conversation

Link to WGEA Data Explorer (can look up each company’s pay gap and other gender equality statistics)

https://www.wgea.gov.au/data-statistics/data-explorer

Leonora’s Twitter exchange with Senator Matt Canavan:

https://twitter.com/leonora_risse/status/1762395543366717877?s=20

Gender wage transparency and the gender pay gap: A survey

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/joes.12545

Do Firms Respond to Gender Pay Gap Transparency?

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jofi.13136

Pay Transparency and Gender Equality

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3584259

Claudia Goldin

“Career and Family: Women’s Century-Long Journey toward Equity”

https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691201788/career-and-family

Leonora’s book review in Economic Record (copy attached)

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1475-4932.12716

 Leonora’s Conversation article on WGEA pay gap data

https://theconversation.com/qantas-pays-women-37-less-telstra-and-bhp-20-fifty-years-after-equal-pay-laws-we-still-have-a-long-way-to-go-223870

Transcript: The Gender Pay Debate: Understanding the Factors Behind the Gap w/ Dr Leonora Risse – EP230

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Leonora Risse  00:04

The risks and opportunities of publishing pay gaps transparently. It does come with potential risk of misinterpretation. It even comes with the risk that some people some employers might look at this list and go you know what? Yes, our gender pay gap is pretty bad but so are all the other companies in our industry and it normalises it and it legitimises going, you know what we’re not that out of step as it is?

Gene Tunny  00:36

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning into the show. In Australia, big companies have been forced to disclose differences between male and female median earnings. The Australian Workplace Gender Equality agency published its first set of gender pay data in late February 2024. And these data have prompted a fierce discussion. Do they show a real gender pay gap that we should be concerned about? Or are the figures nonsense as some prominent critics argue? Joining me to discuss the data is returning guest Dr. Leonora Reese, Associate Professor in Economics at the University of Canberra. She’s a research fellow with the Women’s Leadership Institute Australia, and she serves as an expert panel member on gender pay equity for the Fair Work Commission. Previously, Leonora has held roles with the women and public policy programme at Harvard University, the Australian Government Productivity Commission, and RMIT University. Leonora is co founder and former national chair of the women in economics network in Australia. As always, please let me know what you think about what you hear on the show and about ways that I can improve it, including suggested topics and guests. Right? Oh, we’d better get into it. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Dr. Leonora Reese on the gender pay gap. Leonora thanks for joining me again on the programme. Thank you, Jane for having me. Oh, of course, it’s a big week in your field of research, which broadly is, am I correct in calling agenda economics? Right. Okay, great. Because there’s been a really interesting report that’s been published by the Workplace Gender Equality agency, which is an Australian government agency, and it’s on the gender pay gap. And what it does, it reports the gender pay gaps for one of the largest companies in Australia. Can you tell us a bit about it, please?

Leonora Risse  02:59

That’s right. So this is new data that’s now been publicly released. It’s the gender pay gap for all private companies in Australia that have at least 100 staff. So this is not just a sample, this is every large company. And they have to report this data to the agency to Weijia. Anyway, and this is the first year that this data is now publicly available. Previously, companies could voluntarily share this data, they could share the size of the gender pay gap. Now it’s mandated and that came about through reforms to the Workplace Gender Equality Act. And the idea is that this transparency, this openness of information, is designed number one, to raise awareness and attention and get people talking about the existence of the gender pay gap, which I think has achieved, we’ve ticked that box. And then secondly, to really focus attention on what do we need to do to narrow this gender gap? And how do we understand the drivers behind it? Yeah,

Gene Tunny  04:10

look at certainly started a conversation and in terms of reports of data, so economic or financial data, I can’t think of many others that have generated so much discussion and debate and, and controversy and really strong opinions as this one. So it’s, it’s been quite extraordinary. I must say that. So you, you mentioned private companies. Do you mean companies in the private sector? Is it publicly listed companies traded on the stock market as well? Or is it

Leonora Risse  04:41

I think it’s to the exclusion of the public sector that doesn’t include the government but they have other reporting? Right?

Gene Tunny  04:48

Okay. So it’s the largest companies in Australia and they’re required to disclose this gender pay gap and how do they calculate this gender pay gap? Yeah, so

Leonora Risse  04:59

there are various Ways to calculate the gender pay gap, although most, most of them you still see this, in fact, all of them, you still see a gender pay gap. What this particular data is based on is what we call the median. So like the midpoint of salaries that men are earning in a company, compare that to the midpoint, the median of what all women are earning in a particular company. So within the company comparison, if people are curious to know, what is the median compared to the average, the median is a way of controlling for some of those really extreme values, like very, very large values that can skew or distort the data. So we control for that. So you can’t say all this data is being pushed off or distorted by some extreme values, because statistically, we try to control for that this data also does not include remuneration of CEOs. That will be coming in future years. So it’s not being skewed by say, an over representation of men at CEO level. And it is disaggregated or so according to male concentrated industries, and female concentrated industries, and more what we would call more gender balanced industries. And what we see is that it’s in the male concentrated industries, where this overall gender pay gap seems to be the widest, you asked also how its measured. So this is annual salaries. And it’s includes full time workers, of course, but it also factors in, say, part time workers by working out what would be the annualised equivalent of those work. So it’s not skewed towards, you know, still just a segment of the of the workforce and excluding part time workers as well. Yeah. So

Gene Tunny  07:00

if you’ve got somebody who’s working for simplicity, they’re working half time, they’re only working two and a half days a week, then you would double their, what their earnings are to get a full time equivalent earnings. So

Leonora Risse  07:15

effectively, yes, yeah. And also a real added bonus to this data is that you, you have base salary, so you know what your standard salary would be for the year. And then it also includes a calculation which they’re calling total remuneration. And that’s where you factor in overtime payments, bonuses. Extra commission, for example. And when we factor that in, that’s when the pay gap tends to the gender pay gap widens even further, that extra layer of information. And

Gene Tunny  07:49

so it’s reported as a percentage. So one one that stood out to me is and was widely reported Jetstar, so the budget airline carrier in Australia, that makes huge amounts of money flying Australians to barley, among other places, 53.5% pay gap or something like that, if I got that right. Now, this is where I want to get into a bit of, you know, we, it’d be good to sort of ask, I’d like to ask you about the methodology and to what extent is, is giving us reliable estimates. Because like, that must be, that must be because pilots are disproportionately male, and the cabin crew is disproportionately female. So there are compositional issues there that will make it you know, when we interpret this data, we have to consider those sort of things. So yeah, I’m keen to get your thoughts on that. And also what really stood out to with this data, what do you think it really tells us? What are the highlights? What can we read into it?

Leonora Risse  08:51

You’re exactly right, Jane, that this number, this percentage, reflects a combination of different factors that feed into that. And one of those factors is the composition of the workforce within a company. So I’ve heard many people give the example that the aviation and airline industries tend to be characterised by on average, having more men in the roles of pilots or engineers, which tend to be higher paying roles, and proportionately more women, say in the administration or flight attendant roles, which tend to be relatively lower. So I think that’s great that people have picked up on that because yes, that’s one of the reasons there’s different composition. And instead of saying, well, then there’s no such thing as the gender pay gap that gives us reason to pause and think, Well, hang on, why do we see such stark gender patterns exist? Why aren’t more women being attracted into or working their way into into pilot roles? Why aren’t more men attracted to being a flight attendant so that already starts prompt us to think how are those factors conditioned by societal norms, gender biases, gender stereotypes, gender barriers to women going into fields that are traditionally male and vice versa as well. But then that compositional effect we know from other research, academic research that people like myself and many other economists in the field have carried out is that that’s not your complete explanation. So we use other data sets. And I think, over time, we’ll be able to dig deeper into this big data set, because the beauty of it is that he collects a whole bunch of other information about all these companies where we can plug that into our models and start to decompose, we’ll unpack and use decomposition analysis to figure out what are the contributing factors. So you might still see that even in the same sort of occupation, where you have men and women, so for example, say university lecturers, we know there are still pay scales, we know there’s still opportunity for some university lecturers to negotiate for a slightly higher pay, very high pay, then, then others. Because there’s still room for bargaining, there’s still room for negotiation, even if your job description on paper is the same. Often that’s perpetuating an existing salary that someone brings from a previous employer. So they say, This is what I was paid at my previous organisation or my, my previous company, someone might put that forward as that their their case for saying, This is why I should be paid more than my colleague, because this is, this is what I’m worth, if you need to attract me to this role, this is what you’re going to have to pay me not saying that’s valid or legitimate. But that’s some of the everyday realities of how these these gender nuances factor in. And it also speaks to the cultural norm or the societal expectation that it’s more legitimate for men to be more assertive in bargaining more so than women. And it’s very well to say, women, you just need to be more confident when you when you bargain, or, you know, put your facts on the table and say, I deserve a pay rise. But what’s really fascinating is that the research, including behavioural research in this space suggests that that can still be a really risky approach for women, because it’s not a society as societal norm that women demonstrate that behaviour. So it’s it doesn’t always work. It can backfire. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  12:43

I think we chatted about that in a previous episode. I might link to that because I thought that was a good conversation where we went over some of those factors. Can I ask you about some particular companies now? Hopefully, I got Jetstar. Right. Look at what please do just in case, because I don’t want to accidentally defame Jetstar and then have them sue me. But yeah, but I guess this does raise public relations issues for companies and some companies must be pretty annoyed at what the findings are. So that’s a median gender pay gap on base salary for Jetstar group are 53 and a half percent. And now we’ve got a median gender pay gap for total remuneration of 43.7%. So that’s when they factor in is that bonuses or overtime, then that narrows a little bit? Not, you know, it’s still it’s still significant. And it’s got to do with those compositional issues? Or, you know, that’ll that’ll be a big part of it. What are some of the other companies that stood out to you, Leonora?

Leonora Risse  13:41

Oh, I think you’ve got to have good reason to pick on one company than another. But I look at one observation, I think, is that there weren’t there weren’t really big surprises. For me, I have to say in this data, like we’re aware that there are some quite extreme gender pay gaps amongst some of these companies. I think it was to be expected that in some of these traditionally, male companies like transport and Postal Service’s warehousing, that suppose some of those gender pay gaps are quite stark, because it’s, it’s, it’s harder for women to work their way up the ranks in those companies. But then you also see these gender pay gaps still exist across even female concentrated fields like health care, social assistance. So it’s still it’s still pervasive across all of these, all of these industries. I do see some commentary. I think Dan zippers article on the ABC pointed out that some of these companies that have very large gender pay gaps are companies that perform ought to be being supported or catering to the female client group. You know, they they gave the example of some fashion retailers that, you know, really specialised in producing products for women, and yet they have this big gender pay gap. So that’s goes to show I think that some companies, it’s not all what it seems to be. And especially with the International Women’s Day coming up, I think what would be great is if you see companies that are saying, Yes, we support gender equality, and we’re having an International Women’s Day event will go and check their gender pay gap and see if the rhetoric stacks up with, you know, what are some of the dynamics in their company? Again, you don’t know, we you can’t make judgments just based on that pure number, you want to sort of go under the hood and figure out what’s going on? Is that compositional effects is that is there pay inequity. But all the companies also have the opportunity to provide what’s called an employer’s statement on the Wiggio website. So they’ve got a voice to then explain. This is why we have this percentage pay gap that you see. And it’s also a platform for them to explain what actions what policies, what new strategies they’re going to implement, to do something about it.

Gene Tunny  16:28

Okay, a couple of things. I’d like to pick up on there or ask about that. Company. You. You mentioned, the athletic leisure wear company, that’s Lorna Jane. I imagine

Leonora Risse  16:41

that’s the one that was mentioned. Right? Yeah. Dan Zephyrs article. And I think

Gene Tunny  16:46

I saw they had a law firm, did they have their lawyers say, if you’re going to talk about us in this regard, you’ve got to bake, you’ve got to provide the context or whatever. I’ll try and find that article and put it in the show notes. Right, I

Leonora Risse  16:58

think, I think it’s an example of companies feeling the pressure, which is partly what the intention was of these new reforms is to put the onus on companies to at least explain what’s going on and then try to take action. The whole logic behind this pay transparency is that companies care about their public perception. They don’t want to be caught out or perceived as being inequitable, presumably. And these reforms are meant to, I guess, prompt attention, but also give them a chance to explain and an act. So it sounds like you know, some of the ways that the companies have responded is a signal that they they do feel pressure, they are worried about reputational damage. And so the thinking is that that could be an incentive, I would like to also balance that by saying you do have a fair number of companies on this list that have a really narrow gender pay gap in some, and some have ones that are reversed the other way and are in favour of women. So we have examples of companies that are achieving gender equity in PE, what can we learn from those companies? What has worked? What is it about the culture or the practice or the industry characteristics that has given rise to these narrower gender pay gaps? And can we learn something from their experience that can be transferred to some of these worst performing companies? Or is there something really unique and an ongoing and particular struggle or challenge for some of these industries that have perpetually high gender pay gaps? What extra attention or investment do we need? So that these particular companies that are struggling can can improve over time so that how do we be constructive about this rather than just treating it as naming and shaming and like a punitive measure?

Gene Tunny  19:09

Yeah. Do you remember the high level figures? I might put them in the shownotes? Because is it about is it half of the companies have a gender pay gap, favouring males and there’s a like 30% or 40% that are sort of in where there’s no real difference statistically, and then there’s 10% that are if I got that wrong, you’ve got the figures, well,

Leonora Risse  19:30

they those percentages that you’re quoting yet that they are available, the numbers we’re looking at here. For a start, let’s give people a sense of what that reference point is. So a gap of 14.5% That’s the median across all these companies based on base salary, and if we add in bonuses, etc, then it widens to 19%. What we did in This article in the conversation as we calculated how many of these particular companies were kind of in the upper range the spectrum, right, so you’ve got almost 5000 companies on this spreadsheet on this list. So almost 1000, so around 20% have a gender pay gap that exceeds 20%. If we keep going further and further to the worst end of that, that list, 350 of them have a gap of over 30% gender pay gap of over 30%. And then you’ve got 100, at the worst end, where the gender pay gap is greater than 40%. You’ve also got quite a number of companies at the other end that have gender pay gaps that come negative. Yeah, it was, that was a little surprising as well, I guess, you know, in a good way, perhaps. But what we saw is these are particularly concentrated in Health Education and Disability Services where you have proportionally more women in those industries or those companies already, and therefore, your senior roles and more likely to be women. And also they’re just generally lower paid. So you might have a gender pay gap that mathematically comes out looking like women are being paid more, or in more of the senior roles. But compared to the other industries and sectors is an absolute sense. They’re all a bit lower. Yeah. So

Gene Tunny  21:31

they’re about 1000 companies. So that’s 20% of the 5000. And what you found is that they’re mainly in health education, Disability Services. So I’ll put a link in the show notes to that. And that’s getting to that point you were making. As part of like, there is value you see value in this data, because it can allow further research into what could be driving gender pay gap. So I’ll might explore that with you a bit in a moment. Because it just seems to me this issue of the composition is it’s a big deal, the, you know, the importance of the composition of the workforce. And I wonder if have they got enough warnings on this data? Do you think that they explained the data well enough? Do we shoot should this be up in lights, this is just, we’ve got a really simple, straightforward way of calculating this. There are all these other factors that are involved. So just be careful interpreting this data, give the maybe give the don’t sort of jumped to the conclusion that this company is discriminating against women. Is that clear enough? Or does that need to be clear? Look,

Leonora Risse  22:39

I think people’s reaction is a sign that they’re curious to know those answers. So companies can publish their their workforce profile, you know, in their annual reports, you know, they can publish this is this is the gender composition of, you know, our pilots or flight attendants, nothing stopping them from publishing that type of information either. And, indeed, Weijia does collect a lot of other data and statistics from companies that also reflect gender equality indicators, not just just pay. So it is in that data set, and I think, which is very research oriented and evidence based. So they will be looking to dig deep into that data through an analytical lens to you know, make sense of this. It means some of the policy implications could be okay, what are we doing in schools, and training to encourage more women will not just encouraged but support more women into aviation and airlines, and to ensure they thrive and succeed and feel respected and don’t don’t encounter sexism, which is, you know, currently still still an issue. So that in the future for these companies, they can say these compositional effects. We are acting on that, in terms of this, this pipeline, and also retention and career advancement. Of course, once once people are in the company. I think one one big takeaway, a positive takeaway from having this data out there is that we know that there’s a lot of backlash and resistance and scepticism, there’s no such thing as the gender pay gap. As someone working in this field. I hear that all the time. People feel like it’s not justified. It’s not it’s not warranted that you know, it’s against the law to pay women less than men. So really, this is all just an accounting trick. I heard that response in that comment, those comments and they flared up again, obviously, I think when you look at this data, this is these companies missing, saying yes, we have a gender pay gap, but the companies themselves are reporting This number. So you can’t really dismiss an argue and saying there’s no such thing as a gender gap in earnings basically, because the companies themselves now have publicly declaring that they do. So at least that gets us, you know, one step further along in this ongoing argument or case that we, you know, up till now, a lot of our time and energy is spent just simply trying to verify that there isn’t gender passion in earnings, a gender pay gap, partly due to composition, partly due to a whole lot of other factors. At least the companies themselves now are on record is reporting publicly, yes, this is the gender pay gap in our company.

Gene Tunny  25:47

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

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Gene Tunny  26:22

Now back to the show. So in terms of the criticism, so you you mentioned this, there has been some very strong criticism. And some of that has come from economists. So well, at least one prominent economist Judith Sloan commentator at the Australian former commissioner Productivity Commission. She has been on various boards. And she said that it’s nonsense. She thinks that it’s not comparing like with like soy, because you’ve got. So I’m just wondering, is there a way that they could do this? So it’s just not this one indicator where we’ve got these compositional issues? We’re not comparing, like with like, would it make sense to, like have a narrower, like habit for specific occupations or particular types of work in the company? Would that be? I mean, that could be a better way to do it. And it could be less controversial? Because I think it’s like, I like data. And I think this is interesting in terms of public conversation. This is it’s quite extraordinary. I mean, my mother’s actually contacted me about this, with her thoughts on it. So that’s an indication of how wide the reach. I mean, not that I mean, she does follow current affairs and all that, but usually she’s not getting in touch about the latest economic report. But this time she has because it certainly has. Yeah, it’s really gripped people’s attention more than any other report in recent times. So yes, I’m just wondering about that, whether there’s a better way they could present the data, or, you know, just more just make it clear. Yep. This is just be careful. Don’t read too much into this at the moment. We need, you know, you really need more data than this to make judgments.

Leonora Risse  28:15

Yes, look, this is the first year this data has been published. And even I put in a submission to the Workplace Gender Equality Act review, highlighting what some of the overseas experiences were about the risks and opportunities of publishing. pay gaps transparently. It does come with potential risk of misinterpretation, it even comes with the risk that some people some employers might look at this list and go you know what, yes, our gender pay gaps pretty bad, but so are all the other companies in our industry and it normalises it, and it legitimises going, you know what we’re not that out of step as it is, so we’re not that different from our competitors. So you’ve got all these potential risks around this. And I think you’ve you have articulated one there as well, but just with one number, people might dismiss it because they don’t feel like it adequately explains the whole picture, and therefore they disengage, and they put down and criticise the whole effort based on that reaction, so you kind of you kind of can inflame or agitate people because they might be a bit sceptical to begin with, or quite unsure. And this can push them just to disengage and spread rumours or misinterpretations or myths about inaccuracies and how to interpret the data. So I think you are pointing towards the fact that I think what people are searching for is a more complete explanation. That takes into account some of these compositional effects. That’s where economists come into the picture. So how do we how do we communicate I hate that in a way, and how do we build trust in the public to say, look, these methodologies, these analytical processes, they might sound technical, but you, you have to trust some of the way that we do this analysis, because we have rich data sets, like the Hilda survey that I’ve used previously, ABS data, where we can unpack and we don’t want to come up with ideologically driven inaccuracies in how we interpret it, that’s not really helping, because we’re not going to solve the problem if we, you know, diagnose this incorrectly. So, in terms of our role as scientists and evidence based and data driven, professionals, we have to treat this data, right. So I think the capacity is there to unpack it and to relay that interpretation and that story, to the general public and to decision makers and employers and employees. One example could be here is that, you know, there will be some employees of these companies that look at that data. And, and want to understand why there’s a reported gender pay gap of that magnitude, and want to understand what’s driving it. So should they be entitled to more pay? Or is it because they happen to be in the occupational category that’s relatively lower pay, I think employees deserve to have that type of explanation, as well, so they don’t lose morale. So they don’t feel underappreciated. Hopefully, there is there are opportunities where employers do pick up on where there are some gaps that can be can be narrowed. So I think it’s in the interests that we get the diagnosis. Right? Look, one thing I would also say with the analysis, and when when we run these econometric models, and we plug in all this data, what we can use are these decomposition tools that will tell you this is the component of that overall percentage that can be explained by industry confidence, or occupation, composition, or can be explained by that particular industry. Or it can be explained by educational background, for example, that’s something that works in favour of women, because they have overall average higher education levels. Something that is attributed. What part is due to more experience in the workplace and women on average, having more time out, we can actually get a grip on all of those percentages. I think where there’s also controversy is where people say, well hang on, is that, is that by choice? Or is that because of societal insufficient or cultural norms that that’s happened. So that’s another point of contention, where some very liberal thinkers will say, Well, yes, that can be explained by women going into lower earning occupations are spending time out, but that’s their choice or their preference. But then I think sociologists and other types of economists will, will contend that and say, No, actually, that’s not that choice isn’t made in a vacuum, that choice is made, because the full suite of opportunities, weren’t there for that, that person. So I think that’s another point of difference of interpretation.

Gene Tunny  33:29

So just to recap, is it true that the bulk of that gender pay gap can be explained in a way statistically, by differences in occupational choice or, or the industry, they’re working in educational qualifications, and there’s a small, just a small percentage that you really can’t and it’s

Leonora Risse  33:49

unexplained. Look, most of the time, what we try to do in these models is add more and more observable data and variables into the model so that the explained portion expands and that unexplained portion gets smaller and smaller. Now, some of the explained portion can still be interpreted as discrimination, and bias. So for example, you might say, Well, women are more likely to be in some of these care oriented professions, and then lower paid. And so that is one of the explanations for the overall gender pay gap. But then you might say, Well, hang on, what are the gender biases in society that don’t value that workers as much or that that still have gender norms and stereotypes that say that’s a woman’s job, right? So even if it’s explained, it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s free from biases and inequities as well.

Gene Tunny  34:52

Right? Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I understand the role of societal norms. And yeah, I think we chatted about that before. So I might put a link back to that conversation. I thought it was a good one. I want to ask about Claudia Goldin because Claudia Goldin, she won the Nobel Prize for Economics last year. Judith Sloan quoted her work in so in Judas article and Judas, because Judas is saying, Well, this is all nonsense, because this is just all yes, you’re not comparing like with like, it’s it’s all just explained by difference differences in composition, different choices people make, and she was interpreting Claudia Goldin to the students is interpreting 40 Golden is saying that the gender pay gap, it’s mostly due to the fact that there’s this premium for long and unpredictable hours and men are more likely to to work those jobs pursue that pursue those jobs, because women are more likely to be care as in they don’t have the Yeah, they, they’re more Yeah, they’re less likely to want to pursue those jobs like as as males, pursue them. So disproportionately, so what do you think about that? As a theory? I mean, what, because I think we’ve chatted about Claudia Golden’s work before or since the Nobel Prize was announced. So would you be able to comment on that, please? Sure,

Leonora Risse  36:20

absolutely. So, Claudia Golden’s. The concept that she’s coined here is, is greedy jobs to reflect these particular jobs in the workforce that demand a lot of you as a worker, to work long hours to be on call on weekends on late shifts, and to be rewarded for that. That’s the important part. So should be paid overtime rates to be fast tracked to promotion to get bonuses in reward for, for being, I guess, more available to your employer, I think it’s partly a symptom of capitalist society as well, you know, to really, to really draw as much of the worker that you can out in terms of their time, their loyalty, their commitment. And so the Claudia Golden’s work brings the gender dynamic into that this concept brings the gender Knight dynamic into that because the way that society and policy is structured is that it forces couples, if we’re looking at a male and female couple should make a choice with as a household as to which of them are going to be that particular worker and be on call, and which of them are going to attend to carrying responsibilities to household tasks at home. So collectively, they’re maximising or optimising their total income and trying to balance, you know, both both spectrums. So the way that gender norms give rise is that it tends to be on average, the male partner who will put their hand up for those greedy jobs. And females who, who would opt to, you know, be on call at home, basically. And so the gender pay gap widens, even on an hourly basis, because this there’s this premium attached with those types of jobs. And they’re rewarded, you know, it’s it’s seen as a positive thing in workplace culture. And so the, my, you know, the way that I interpret Claudia Golden’s work, and she articulates this, I think pretty clearly in her book, career and family is that unless you have gender equity at home, it’s very hard to achieve gender equity in the paid workforce. So as long as there’s some sort of gender division at home, you just don’t have that time availability in the paid workforce. So she’s actually advocating for, for gender equality, she’s not saying this rationalises or legitimises the existence of the gender pay gap, she says it’s a an explanation that needs attention. And that we should be looking at how do we look for ways to reduce this culture of expecting workers to be working such extensive hours and to be on call? How can they be more substitutable with each other, so you know, if you’re not available, it doesn’t matter because your colleague can step in. And she gives examples from the industry of pharmacy, the pharmacy industry where that that is, is a change in cultural practice, and that allowed more women actually to advance in that industry. So that, you know, the action or the policies that emerge from that are ones that start to address that existing inequity in the city. system and steer us towards something that’s more equitable. And I would say also healthier as well. Now, other people might interpret that differently. But I think that’s a very, very, you know, firm and widespread way of expressing Cambodia Golden’s work, I did write a book review of her book, and it’s published in the economic record. Yeah, I’d be very pleased for people to have a read of that and see what see what they think of the points that Claudia Goldin has expressed. And of course, yesterday, Jean, she was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics, in recognition of decades and decades of work, looking at women’s participation in the workforce, and how that has changed over time, from an historical perspective, right up to contemporary time, so she is a big advocate and champion for working towards a more gender equitable economy.

Gene Tunny  41:02

Yeah, I have to read that book of hers. I read your book review and then read her book. She’s at Harvard, isn’t she? Correct.

Leonora Risse  41:08

She’s in the Harvard economics department. And I believe she was the first female to be tenured as appropriate and reach a professor status at Harvard University.

Gene Tunny  41:20

And you visited Harvard a few years ago. Did you did you get to meet Claudia Goldin? Yes,

Leonora Risse  41:24

that was an absolute highlight. Yes, absolutely. This was before she won the Nobel Prize. But even then, it was a huge honour. She was also very closely involved in the American economics Association’s women’s group, which is the equivalent of our women in economics, here in Australia, so we had a great conversation about that. But what was fascinating, I think, is that she has spent so much of her time and focus, telling this story of how women’s opportunities have changed over time. But effectively, they’re still not entirely a free choice. They’re still governed by, by policy, it’s governed by or shaped by technology. A great example of her work was the economic effects of the invention of the pill, the oral contraceptive, which really, you know, liberated women from a lot of it opened up more opportunities for them to control their their family planning and participate more fully in the paid workforce. So fascinating research over time that looks at what, what factors have shaped women’s opportunities in positive as well as negative ways?

Gene Tunny  42:44

Yeah, absolutely. I’m gonna have to read your work and try to get her on the show one day, for sure. Right? Oh, well, we better start wrapping up because I’ve, I’ve taken a lot of your time. It’s been it’s been really fascinating, good, good having this conversation and sort of delving into this and what it all means. And I think the way that you’ve, you know, you’re making me go beyond what the data, what the exact, you know, the data or just arts industry, its occupation, or think about what’s the other societal factors or norms that are leading to these occupational choices. I think that’s a good point. So certainly worth considering. on that issue of, you know, this greedy jobs, and I think this gets to what, why someone like Matt Canavan, Senator Matt Canavan, an old friend of mine, he’s a Senator for the conservative LNP party, Liberal National Party here in Queensland. And he’s come out very aggressively against this report. Matt’s been on the show before we had a chat about Net Zero. I’ll put a link in the show notes to that. And I think Matt was saying, look, the problem is that you can’t just scale up these jobs, like a point eight, you can’t just multiply it by one divided by point eight to get what the equivalent salary is, and then do a comparison because there’s that premium for the long and, and predictable hours. So that was, I think that’s what his point was, wasn’t it, but that he doesn’t think this exercise is particularly valid at all. And then you had a bit of an exchange with him on Twitter. So could you tell us about what that exchange was about? Please? Leonora? Sure.

Leonora Risse  44:23

So yeah, I mean, again, this is an example of this data, getting people talking, first of all, trying to understand the methodology, how were these gender pay gaps being calculated? So we get a grip on that, and it sounded like, you know, the way you’ve described it there, I think, was a good, good example of then people prompting, or is that the appropriate way to, to analyse this, this data? So I think on Twitter, I mean, I tried to use social media very mindfully and simply really to express what could be or to offer input to correct inaccuracies of interpretation just in the interest of public knowledge and public information is there something I can add so that there there is less risk of misinformation and debunking misinterpretations. So I pointed out, you know, this is the way the data is calculated, it does account for hours worked, it is annualised to a full time equivalent. So it does include people across the different hours spectrum. And it excludes CEOs, and it is calculators, medians, as I mentioned earlier, so we don’t have those statistical effects of extreme outliers. But then I think the way you’ve articulated it was that, you know, I guess Matt Canavan response was, Well, is that really how we should be going about it? Because if you’re working full time, does that mean that your contribution, even per hour is worth more than part time? That’s effectively I guess, one way to interpret it? I guess what he’s saying then is He’s agreeing with the greedy jobs phenomenon. And then that’s a question for all of us. So what is the greedy jobs phenomenon? Actually fair? And is it? Is it also reflective of productivity? Because if you’re working very, very long hours, is your productive value chain is a marginal decline? Is it actually worth more, as well? So you’ve got these other potentially offsetting rationale to think that maybe extra long hours, additional hours? Is that actually worth more per hour? This for hours? You know, so is there a premium? Is that premium justified? If people aren’t able to work more than part time hours, because they have care responsibilities, and so they miss out on that premium for overtime? Well, that will come through in the data. But then again, we should be questioning well, is that actually fair? Is that how we want society to function? Or can we restructure our policy so that if you have predominantly women who are working part time who aspire to work more hours, that can because effective marginal tax rates mean they actually take home less or they don’t have childcare places available? Or, you know, there are other carrying demands that it basically brings up a whole lot of other gender patterned inequities? I mean, what I would also say, I think the exchange with Matt Canavan online, also revealed, I think, some level of an underlying response, which was that we’re talking about masculinity norms coming undone. That there’s another there’s a deeper narrative here that the more that we try to advance women’s opportunities in the workforce, there will be some people out there whose responses? Well, there are still jobs that require physicality that’s associated with masculinity. And that’s worth more I think, I think some of the posts that Canavan posted could have been sort of along those lines, or has made allusions to people feeling that the gender pay gap or gender equity initiatives are unfair for Superman. And therefore that can, in his eyes, rationalise why men might look for highly masculinized icons and role models to gravitate towards for a sense of identity and solidarity. I think that’s potentially one interpretation of this undercurrent of reactions that was coming through,

Gene Tunny  49:01

right. Yep. So Matt, Matt suggested that reports like this could actually widen the gender divide, could actually lead young men to embrace Andrew Tate, for example. So I think that was the example

Leonora Risse  49:13

what is the conclusion he drew, but I think that’s a very, yeah, I wouldn’t enter into Logic.

Gene Tunny  49:18

Okay, I want to just want to go back on the greedy jobs, just so I characterise what Matt was saying, but the technical point he was making, so yeah, there’s the greedy jobs aspect of it. But there’s also the fact that if you’re full time, even if you’re just working 38 hours a week, or 40 hours a week, you’re more valuable, like say, compared with someone who’s only working half time, you’re actually more than you’re more than twice as valuable than that person, because you’re there all through the week and you can respond to the issues that come up and you’ve got continuity of the work so you’re more you can fit more into the the processes that are at play. You’re more reliable, you’re more diverse. In the world to upper management, for example,

Leonora Risse  50:02

I think that’s one party can go down based on that logic. I’m not sure if that if really, he was. He was expansive on that logic or based on on the Twitter post, but I think that’s, that could be one way of some people attempting to rationalise or legitimise why workers who work more hours in absolute terms should be given a higher pay rate per hour. Now, for some employers, that might be their logic, again, I would come back to is that really a measure of your true productive contribution per hour? Or is that a sense of some strategy for some employers to? You know, to really attract and retain and, and extract excessive time and energy from their employees and potentially, in an unsustainable way over time, if you’re working very, very long hours, if you’re always on call? Is that healthy and sustainable over the long run as well?

Gene Tunny  51:25

Possibly not I mean, that was one of the things i There are a lot of good things I liked about when I was working at Treasury. But one of the downsides was that you’re often always on call, depending on the area you’re in. So when I was in budget policy, for example, you were just always on call almost. And you you’d often have to come in on weekends work late at night, if the treasurer wanted a briefing or something. Yeah, it was, it wasn’t I don’t think it was, I don’t think

Leonora Risse  51:50

and also to Gene like, you can control for that in your model as well. So I’ve done analysis using the Hilda data for the gender pay gap based on hourly wages, and I put in a variable to control for overtime, and you still see an unexplained gender pay gap. Right.

Gene Tunny  52:07

Okay. I just finally, well, over time is this. This is both paid and unpaid overtime, because a lot of overtime. Maybe we can we can I can know,

Leonora Risse  52:21

in terms of the data that I’ve been Yeah, yeah. So it does ask, do you usually work more than I think it’s 50 hours, we’ll see it’s got all these different thresholds that you can choose. So you can put that in? And then of course, if you don’t control for that, then you are diluting your hourly wage calculation because you’re dividing by a bigger number. So you really have to control for that. Okay. Yes, yeah. But basically, I’m saying that even if you were to say and accept the logic that say, with the big data where we can’t use annualised full time equivalent, because there’s a premium associated with working sets of hours and overtime being on call, okay, if you want to buy into that logic, we can kind of control for that and adjust the calculations. Okay. It doesn’t, yeah, doesn’t explain away the gender pay

Gene Tunny  53:15

gap. Right. But this is where I think, yeah, yeah. This is where we need to use data sets like Hilda household income labour dynamics Australia, ABS data, to what extent does this do you think you can use this to to help improve the analysis? Or is this just a novelty? Or is this just something that, you know, makes the news? That is that is not really valuable for research and insights? What are your thoughts on this big

Leonora Risse  53:43

data set is one of the most valuable data sets? I would say internationally, right? It is a census. It’s not even a sample. It’s a census of all these companies. And we’re GIA collects a whole bunch of other information about these companies that can be plugged into an analytical model to conduct that type of decomposition analysis. So I know they have that research orientation, and they’re looking to conduct that type of research in the future.

Gene Tunny  54:14

Okay, well, I’ll look out for I’m sure you’re going to be analysing the data, you’ll be looking at the data, that can

Leonora Risse  54:21

be one of those researchers doing that, again, just to make sense of the data. There’s a lot of explanatory power in there. We use the analytical models to get under the hood. Okay,

Gene Tunny  54:33

good. Good. Finally, should have asked, Are we the only country that’s doing this?

Leonora Risse  54:38

Oh, good question. So my understanding is, no, there are a few other countries around the world. So a lot of this was informed by international experiences as well as that sort of gave rise to why these laws changed in Australia. So in the UK, they do it in Denmark. They do it could be a few other companies, but you know what, that’s where some of these lessons learned come from? So one example that I’m aware of is in the UK in universities, they had pay gap transparency. Yes, they saw the pay gap narrower. But mainly, by virtue of senior women negotiating for higher pay or leaving to go to a high paying employer, the junior women didn’t have the same sort of capacity to leverage that data or to bargain. So not all women, for example, can use this data. In Denmark, when they had pay gap transparency, they saw a narrowing of the overall gender pay gap through a slowdown in men’s wage growth on average. So it wasn’t because women’s wages accelerated and caught up. It was because over time, men’s ongoing wage growth, it didn’t go backwards, but it just didn’t go up as much. And so it meant overall, the wage bill for companies doesn’t necessarily go up because you saving maybe there was some men that you were paying more than what they said.

Gene Tunny  56:05

There hasn’t been a causal study of that, though, has there? This is just observation. This is Oh,

Leonora Risse  56:11

no, this is this is a proper academic journal study. Really? Okay.

Gene Tunny  56:15

I have to look at that, that I’ll have to look at the methodology to see how they draw that conclusion. Because it sounds like I mean, yeah, it’d be interesting if it were true. I mean, I’d be interested in seeing the methodology to just to check that, you know, it’s just not something that, you know, happened. I mean, the whole the whole post hoc, ergo Propter. hoc, as

Leonora Risse  56:33

in there could have been some external shock. Potentially, I think you always want to ask those questions. Yeah, sure. I think what was interesting was that it was yes, it was a narrowing, but it was because of this slowdown from men’s wages rather than accelerates it. So it shouldn’t just be expecting all women’s wages are going to catch up now. Yeah. And narrowing of the gender pay gap involves two moving pieces.

Gene Tunny  56:56

Right. Yeah. Okay. Well, you know, this has been great. I’ve really grilled you over the the geo data, and you’ve been doing great in answered a lot of my questions. And yeah, it’s been great to have you on the show. I think this is a very important topic. We’ve talked about it before. Other Any other thoughts? Anything you’d like to say to wrap up?

Leonora Risse  57:23

Open question there. I think I think you’re right, we covered we covered a lot here. I think the takeaway is so how do we act on this data in a constructive way, is to make sure we don’t put the onus on individual women to now go and get this data and expect them to rock up to their employer and say, I deserve a pay rise. Really, the onus should be on employers and companies to care enough about these pay gaps to want to at least explain it and do something about it. So that fix the system rather than fix the women is a recurring piece of advice that I think applies. In this context, if companies are asking or if you’re thinking, What can I suggest to my company? What should I do? What should we recommend that our company does? One evidence based strategy is to make closing the gender pay gap, part of your KPIs, your key performance indicators for your managers and executives. And that’s an evidence based way that really seems to get the ball rolling. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  58:34

yeah, that’s a yeah, that’s, that’s one thing that certainly could motivate the executives to pay attention to it for sure. I mean, I, I expect that for some of these companies, for jet staff or others that you look at the data and like, whoa, that’s, that looks like a much higher gap than I’d expect. you’d hope or Well, I think I would expect that they would have a board paper, the next board meeting, delving into it, trying to explain why there is this gap. Okay. Well, it’s because of the composition of the workforce, right? Yeah. So I think they’ll they’ll have to do

Leonora Risse  59:09

and one, one takeaway there is like, if we are going to judge companies, perhaps one way to look at it is which companies are improving the gender pay gap over time, so not just the absolute amount now, which in some ways might be slightly outside of their control. But if you look from one year to the next, which ones are narrowing, and getting better, in addition to other indicators, we should be looking at, like, other measures of safety and other things that matter for gender equality. So yeah, this is the first of a series of data points. And I think that indication of progress over time, could emerge as a more important indicator than a simple snapshot in time. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  59:55

yeah, I think that’s good point. Okay, Leonora thanks so much for your time. I really Lily enjoy the conversation.

Leonora Risse  1:00:01

Thank you, Jane for having me likewise.

Gene Tunny  1:00:04

Right. Oh, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

1:00:51

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

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Podcast episode

AI in Finance: Empowering Investors with Real-time Market Insights w/ Andrew Einhorn, LevelFields – EP229

Andrew Einhorn from LevelFields shares insights into leveraging AI for financial market analysis. Their innovative platform is designed to detect key events affecting stock prices, enabling investors to react swiftly. The conversation covers the benefits of AI in democratizing financial information and the future implications for investment strategies. Disclaimer: Nothing in this episode should be considered financial or investment advice. Our aim is to provide information and insights to help you understand the evolving landscape of AI and investing. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Please get in touch with us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google Podcasts, Apple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest Andrew Einhorn

Andrew Einhorn is the visionary CEO and co-founder behind Level Fields, a groundbreaking company leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to revolutionize the way investors interact with the stock market. With a career deeply rooted in technology and finance, Einhorn has dedicated himself to democratizing access to advanced investment strategies, making it possible for the average investor to make informed decisions swiftly and with confidence. Before establishing Level Fields, Einhorn led a successful event monitoring system company for a decade, serving publicly traded companies and offering insights into how market events affect stock prices. His passion for utilizing technology to enhance market transparency and fairness has led to the creation of Level Fields’ AI-driven platform, designed to scan the market for events impacting stock prices, thereby leveling the playing field between retail investors and the larger, more resource-rich players in the market.

What’s covered in EP229

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • Using AI to analyze financial news and announcements. (2:47)
  • Using AI for stock market analysis and avoiding fraudulent companies. (7:19)
  • AI applications and their limitations. (13:38)
  • Using AI to analyze market data for investment insights. (18:24)
  • AI-powered stock market analysis. (23:26)
  • AI-powered investment research platform for retail investors. (28:01)
  • Using AI to analyze audio transcripts for investment insights. (33:12)
  • Using AI for event monitoring and investment analysis. (38:45)
  • Using historical data for investment strategies. (44:10)
  • AI’s role in investing and the financial establishment’s reaction. (49:19)

Takeaways

1. AI can help democratize access to investment strategies by scanning vast amounts of market data and financial reports that individual investors cannot monitor themselves.

2. Understanding how historical events have impacted stock prices can provide insights on predicting future price movements and avoiding losses from overreacting to news.

3. While AI is not a crystal ball, it can be a useful tool for investors when combined with human judgment, by automating tedious research tasks and identifying potential opportunities that may otherwise be missed.

Links relevant to the conversation

LevelFields website: https://www.levelfields.ai/ 

Andrew’s interview on the Side Hustle City podcast: https://www.sidehustle.money/1350142/14348901-revolutionizing-investing-andrew-einhorn-unveils-levelfields-the-game-changing-tool-in-stock-market-analysis 

Transcript: Revisiting Ricardo: The Rise and Fall of Ricardian Equivalence

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Andrew Einhorn  00:04

Just like any new tech in the market, you’re going to piss off some people. And, you know, we’re trying to give some of these strategies to the general population and democratise access and everyone likes that.

Gene Tunny  00:26

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning in to the show. Today we’re exploring an exhilarating intersection, AI and investing. In this episode, we’re joined by Andrew einhorn the CEO and co founder of level fields, a company that’s at the forefront of applying AI in financial markets. Andrew and his team have developed a platform that scans the market for events proven to impact stock prices, allowing investors to make more informed decisions rapidly. For Andrew is not just about speed, it’s about levelling the playing field between the average investor and the big players in the market. As always, I’m interested to hear what you think about the issues we discuss on this show. So please get in touch and share your thoughts. You can find my contact details in the show notes. Before we proceed, I need to make a quick disclaimer. Nothing in this episode should be interpreted as financial advice specific to you. Our aim is to provide information and insights to help you understand the evolving landscape of AI and investing. Always conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions. Right? Oh, we’d better get into it. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Andrew einhorn from level fields. Andrew einhorn from level fields, welcome to the programme.

Andrew Einhorn  02:15

Thanks, Gene happy to be here. Appreciate you having me on.

Gene Tunny  02:18

Excellent. You’re doing some very interesting things in AI and in applying AI to financial markets that I’m delighted to have you on the show to talk about so your company is level fields and the pitch is find better investments 1800 times faster. Ai scans for events proven to impact stock prices. So you don’t have to. Okay, so can you explain I mean, what are you actually doing there? Andrew? What’s this? What’s this AI? What’s it scanning? Can you please talk to us about that place?

Andrew Einhorn  03:01

Your Yeah, happy to, at a very, very basic level. It’s monitoring the market for events that are proven to move share prices, either north or south, and positively or negatively. If you know how a price is going to move, and you’ll learn about the event happening, then you can anticipate that move. And you can make short, mid or long term bets trades knowledge and information, you know, concrete piece of it would be you know, if the CEO departs from a large corporation like an Amazon, we have a data analytic system that shows that usually results for companies like Amazon in a price decrease of a couple percentage points, you know, what’s happened with Amazon. But the data also shows that within about three months, the stock is right back where it used to be in many cases, far above it. And we can see the different types of stocks, you know, smaller stocks versus bigger ones, profitable or unprofitable companies, they all react a little bit differently. If you take an unprofitable, struggling company, and the CEO leaves, the share price often goes up. People are celebrating that, hey, you know, hope is coming. Let’s bring somebody else in. And so the data set shows that and it alerts people of these kinds of opportunities, which happen in some cases 100 times a day, across 1000s of stocks that are in the market. And so we track all types of events, leadership changes, capital deployments, you know, being added to indexes. Investors coming in large billionaires coming in and buying positions and companies pushing for changes. We have lots of different event types and the ideas, you can just quickly find what’s going on in the market without actually reading very much, because the AI is out there reading all these company announcements, all the reports, they’re putting out the news that’s covering them. And just in the US alone, that amounts to about 6300. Companies, all making announcements constantly. And we get a large part of our information directly from those companies. But the reports can be long, it can be boring, and they can be tedious for somebody to read, even if they have the time to read the reports of 6300 companies, which is physically impossible. Unless you have a couple 100 analysts covering all the stocks, you’re never going to be able to do it as an individual. As a result, there’s a natural discrepancy in the market, where an average investor doesn’t have the resources or the time or even the knowledge sometimes to find out about all these events, to know what’s going on in the marketplace. So they’re constantly at a disadvantage to large hedge funds and asset management shops that do have the resources to scan the entire market to deploy capital. And if you want to test that theory, just ask an average person to name as many stocks as they can. I think you’re gonna stump people around the 20 to 30. Mark, everybody can name the seven, The Magnificent Seven, right? After that, they’ll start to slow down. Even very good seasoned investors will have a tough time after that. And as the reason is that, a lot of the media is biassed towards those mega cap companies, covering them all the time, making you aware of them all the time, because you click on it. And they can if you click on it, and you read about it, they sell more ads. So they keep writing about Elon Musk and everything he says on Twitter because it drives advertising revenue. But what it also does is really Rob, you have the opportunity to hear about all these other companies that are doing great things that the media doesn’t cover, or they don’t have the staff to cover. And so that’s where the AI comes in, it can monitor the entire market for you. And really, for the first time ever, you have a personal assistant in reading and understanding and analysing financial news and financial announcements. And you can take that and create a very customised AI search agents look for just this type of thing that you want. So if you say, You know what, I really love investing in energy companies, and you go out look for energy companies that are growing revenue, at least 10% growing earnings, at least 20% and recently increased their dividend by you know, whatever percent, I just alert me every time that happens, I don’t have to do anything, ever again, on my research, I’m gonna get an alert, right in my email, when my criteria is matched. And if that’s my investment thesis, then I just go along on on those investments. So there’s a lot of flexibility in the platform. And what we’re really trying to do is kind of break down that barrier that most people have, and not being able to monitor the market at scale, not being able to see those was really interesting. bull markets, or in some cases, bear markets, because we can go both ways, you know, in the, in the strategies, short and long, that are reacting to different macroeconomic events. And we see that on the basis of company financials, we see that in the basis of what CEOs are saying and our financial outlook. We see that in the basis of what the leadership is doing with capital allocation. And so, you know, an example is when, you know, when Russia invaded Ukraine, there was in the middle of a pretty decent sell off already in 2022. That was happening. And this really accelerated the market sell off. But there were some companies that were thriving. I doubt many people would know what those companies were could list them, but a lot of them were fertiliser manufacturers that are based in Canada and the United States. And the reason was, they couldn’t get fertilisers, which a large percentage of them came from Ukraine, Belarus and Russia, you couldn’t get them out of that region because of the conflict. So the price of these types of fertilisers was rising was doubling. And so companies that weren’t involved in the conflict and could export their product. Were then selling it for double the price. And so what we saw on the platform was a slew of fertiliser companies, increasing their dividends doing special dividends, increasing stock buybacks, and we’re sort of you know, beating earnings and we’re wondering what is going on with fertiliser companies? I had no idea I never bought a fertiliser company in my life. But you do two seconds of Google research you say okay, they sell this you know, potash potash is a lot of it coming out at Bell roofs, they can’t get it. Price is 100 percent bull market for fertiliser companies. And so this one company that I actually invested in, called nutrient because Canadian, you know, the share price jumped 75% In about two months. So, you know, if you’re an investor and you can go straight equity, you can leverage with options, stock options, you can make a lot of money on those types of things. But you have to have the awareness, you have to know those things are going on. And you have to have a system is sort of connecting the dots for you fast enough for you to react otherwise, you know, you’re kind of going to sit in the same 789 stocks forever, not really knowing why they’re going up and down. Yeah, gotcha.

Gene Tunny  10:43

Are you scanning social media too? Because I mean, some of the names, you mentioned them, and you think of some of these high flying CEOs. Many of them are engaging in risky activities, you know, go into space, and all of that. I mean, are you scanning social media for for, you know, hints of, you know, potential, you know, shock news,

Andrew Einhorn  11:04

we were a little bit, we kind of pulled back from it, because Twitter was cutting off access to their data sets and their API to third party developers like us. But we also found it for the most part, you know, we were relying wanted to rely on the company announcement as much as possible. We want to do overweight, potential pumping, dumps that, you know, market manipulation that can sometimes happen. We’re trying to protect, you know, the users and the investors on our platform. Because there are some savvy, bad actors out there that will utilise social media to pump up stocks and fake news. And, you know, sometimes, if you’re not watching closely, you can fall prey to that.

Gene Tunny  11:44

Yeah, that’s a good point. Yeah. So there’s a lot. Yeah, so yeah, you got to be careful, you don’t really know what, what’s true out there. So that’s a really good point. Whereas with the company reports, I mean, obviously, they’re, you know, they’ve got a legal obligation to tell the truth, but have been sometimes, of course, you know, there can be,

Andrew Einhorn  12:03

and that happens to they, you know, sometimes the reports are fake, there was a company. I forget the name, but the ticker was to T IO. And they faked all their financials. And it looked like, you know, they did this wonderful quarter, and they were growing by 5,000%. And it was like, wow, one of the scenarios in the events that we tracked is the short seller reports. So, in funds, you know, they specialise in kind of busting the fakers that are out there in the market. And so he saw in our platform, those short sale report went up on this, went out on this company to and said, you know, all the all the founders were criminals, and they had already been convicted fraud before. Looks like they’re doing fraud. Again, they investigated some of these alleged sales contracts that they had that were worth, like a billion dollars. And what the company had done was sort of open up like a shell LLC, create a fake purchase order back to the company, and use that as sort of evidence that they were driving sales up. And so the whole thing just fizzled out. And so you do you do see a good amount of that, you know, years back, it was luck, and Coffea, China, they were faking their arse. And a similar kind of hedge fund, you know, put up a camera and started counting how many people actually went into the luck and coffees and said, you know, if, if their numbers are right, then they’re they’re serving four times the number a couple of coffees and Starbucks. Yeah, yeah.

Gene Tunny  13:39

So I just want to talk a bit about the AI, because you mentioned you’re scanning these company reports and news from the companies. And so to an extent, you’ve got to trust what’s coming out of them. And what have you got, is it so people talk about, and this is what I want to explore with you, because I think pre show we were talking about how, look, there’s been applications of AI for years. And there’s been things like algorithmic trading, which I mean, I’d be interested in your thoughts on how close that is to the AI, whether that’s a true AI, that the public discussion about AI is just really taken off with these, what they call these generative, pre trained transformers, if you’ve got that, right, the GPT chat GPT, where we’ve got that interaction with a Can you talk about please Andrew, they’ll try to explain, like what you’re doing, is it a are you using a GPT? Is that right? And how does it differ from what other people have done in the past

Andrew Einhorn  14:43

now we developed our own proprietary artificial intelligence system. And the way you kind of think about it is, you know, the chat. gfpt is sort of the mouth of a body. And the stuff that we’re doing is more like The beating heart. Right. And so the interaction with AI through chat, GBT is obviously, you know, through chat, it’s a communication channel. And so that’s one deployment of AI. whereas ours is more sort of, like, you know, a monitoring, AI, it’s going and finding different pieces of information that are out there. It’s making sense of them putting them together, you know, it’s a little bit more like cognitive functioning, I should say, probably better, better than the heart analogy. And so AI, in general, can be anything, you know, very, very basic tasks, very, very difficult sort of self directed tasks, it sort of depends on on your goal. Chat. GPT is great, you know, for interacting, but it’s completely reliant on third party data that has already found the answer to the question that it’s now speaking, right. It’s not thinking and processing for itself, it’s going into a database of information that it knows. And then it’s extracting that information and then saying to you, and like, plain language, here’s what I found, you know, a little bit more like an advanced Google search. And so what we’re doing is we’re finding the answer, right? So if you ask a question, like, why was Apple stock down yesterday, you’re gonna get some message that says, you know, my, my training only goes to February 2023. We, you know, we don’t do real time analysis, or might say something like, Well, according to this one news article, you know, blah, blah, blah. It’s not doing anything on its own, it’s just summarization, our system is going out and coming up with an answer, because we are not only extracting what happened in that event. So let’s use the example of Apple. So Apple stock goes down yesterday, we find out that Apple made an announcement through our AI and AI identifies Apple doing a product release of vision, pro whatever. And then in the system, it’s identified that the share price moved down. And that was the only major event. So those pieces of information the AI then puts together and says the reason why apples down was this bullish event product launch, which, you know, seven times out of 10 is actually negative for Apple. Now that we have that piece of information, you could overlay something like a Chet GPT into our database and say, Hey, why was Apple stock down yesterday, it would look at our data, pull it out and be able to summarise, you know, coordinate a level fields. This was because of, you know, blah, blah, blah, like Apple stock was down because of a product launch that didn’t go well, instead of you. If you look at that at scale, and say, Okay, well, our system is more was a research agent that’s actively out there looking for information, assessing what’s going on analysing what’s going on, and then coming up with a data array of information, just showcase what happened. It gives you far more information about what’s likely to occur next. And I think the best example I can give is like a weather report. Yeah, here’s where it’s raining, here’s where it’s sunny, there’s an 80% chance that the rain is going to be four inches of rain. And it’s going to last for 12 hours. And that’s kind of what the analytics of historical data sets like ours can provide. And so if you are, you know, a type of person who wants to invest in stocks, but maybe doesn’t necessarily want to listen to someone’s opinion on CNBC, or, you know, one of these newsletter services, this is this is the next Amazon or these are five other stocks that are better than Amazon, you can actually look at the data set and see, well, this company had a big bullish event, this bullish event 80% of the time, ends up in a positive price return of 20% over the next X number of days, weeks, months. And so we’re trying to move away from that, you know, kind of human opinion driven stock market and move closer towards an understanding of how things normally play out. And a lot of the market, to your extent is is driven by algorithmic trading. And those trades, about 60% of the trades in the market are automated. And so why, how are they automated or automated on the basis of patterns that people are telling it to find? And so if you know how the algorithms are reacting, and you know what they’re reacting to, when you find the reason why they’re reacting, it’s easy to predict what happens next. And usually, they’re using some kind of technical analysis, looking at patterns and charts. And so the piece that we really plug in and say, well, these patterns and graphs and movements on the charts. That’s great. But events caused them. And so what we often see as the event happens, it starts to raise the price from the for the stock that that people are watching, then the algorithms see that price movement, because it breaks the pattern of some kind of technical analysis. And then the algorithms buy it and drive it even further. So you have that kind of double burst if you can get out in front of these events. Right. And that’s a lot of how the market moves. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  20:28

So yeah, a few follow ups. This is fascinating. Is your AI? Is it trying to then model how the algorithms will respond? Is it? Or are you just looking at the impact of events, so I know that you’ve from a previous interview, you’ve done your you’ve done a lot of deep research, we’ve looked at Google Scholar, you’ve pulled out studies, events, studies, which show how particular events impact the market, so you’ve got that information, or you also, and you know, there might be an immediate impact to you, then, are you trying to maybe to some extent, they’ve looked at this themselves, but are you then looking at how the market reacts through the reactions of all the other participants through the algorithmic trading, etc,

Andrew Einhorn  21:10

you look at an aggregate. So we think of market participants just broadly how it reacts, right, and in some cases, the system you can see, the speed of the reaction differs depending on the event type. For example, one of the events we track is an increase in dividend amount. You invest in dividend stocks are generally not moving really fast. You know, they’re there for longer term, they’re collecting dividends. And so the price action on that first event is relatively slow. Whereas other events, like a company being added to an s&p 500 index, there are big hedge funds that trade that specific scenario that have spent a lot of money to develop algorithms to buy shares, the second, the s&p organisation announces a new cause, you know, a new constituent in the index, that does trade very quickly. When we just show it, we just you can see it on the platform that they have, the average move is a percent done at an event like this. And if you start to look at some of the data, you’ll see it moves fast versus a dividend event, which may be moving slowly over several days, you know, and then if you’re looking at some of these things, in aggregate, like multiple dividend increases over the span of let’s say, a year, year and a half, you then can predict longer term gains, you know, a company that’s repeatedly saying things are good, so much, and they’re so good, we’re gonna give away money. And then that other pattern starts to reveal itself. And so it really depends how you want to use the system. And we’re, we’re very much the data provider using the AI to kind of showcase these patterns that exist all over the market. And in some cases, you can take kind of contrarian views or find these, you know, hidden gems that you would never see before. Just just just by having access to all of the data at kind of the palm of your hand. My favourite example is a stock called very, very active. It’s VR TV got bought out, but years ago, this was mid March 2020. We’re in the middle of COVID. And stock market selling off, we are going into lockdown globally. You know, the big ship is moving towards New York, you know, with extra hospital beds. And there’s there’s a there’s a panic. At that time, most companies, you know, are starting to slash their dividends. They’re looking at cost saving measures. There’s one company that came in started doing stock buybacks or buying back there shares. And it’s a very brave move. And you would think, stupid move for somebody to take their company’s cash right as we’re going into, you know, potentially a global depression and take that cash and start buying back their shares with it instead of using it for operating capital. Why would they do that? Well, this particular company is a engineering and kind of design firm. They build and sell direct to consumer product packaging, isn’t it that everybody used to sell through the big stores who had a product could no longer sell to the big box stores. They had to get it to your doorstep that required new type of packaging. In order to do that. The whole world was going through the same issue. Everybody’s Sitting at home buying stuff. And now you Commerce has completely shifted, this company is sitting in the middle of what ended up being a goldmine for them. And that precipitated a stock run of 2,600% growth over the next three years. And you would have never seen that had you not been following, you know, why would anybody be doing this random stock buyback in the middle of COVID. And so that’s the kind of thing that this system can can identify. And it’s, it’s, it’s a proof point that the macro economic event is either positively or negatively impacting, you know, these individual stocks. And you can’t, you can’t monitor the market for that kind of thing, because stocks still went down. That was a funny thing. And you hear people, you know, they’ll give a criticism, well, I just look to see what stocks are up. And when stocks are down, well, then it happens after Seminary has decided what to do. In this case, the stock kept going down for the next couple of weeks while the market sold off, and then began 26x run over the next three years.

Gene Tunny  26:09

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  26:15

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Gene Tunny  26:44

Now back to the show. Where are you guys? Do you in direct somewhere you’re in DC, the DC area or Baltimore? Is that right? Yeah, just

Andrew Einhorn  26:55

outside of Washington DC. We’re a Virginia based company.

Gene Tunny  26:58

Right authority. So Virginia rather than Maryland. And so if you’re you must have computer scientists on staff. Do you who develop this proprietary AI? I mean, what what’s your operation look like? Do you have? And you have people? Do you have actual analysts as well, I mean, you’re you solely relying on the AI to deliver the predictions.

Andrew Einhorn  27:21

We have all the above. You know, we have couple PhDs, some in linguistics, some in AI, some in physics, astrophysics, at do a lot of good in the modelling, and analysis work, we have those who have financial backgrounds, we have a lot of financial advisors that are from the street or certain hedge funds, previously, and sort of former lives that have helped devise the system. And so a lot of what we’re really trying to do is think, what are the big annoying, tedious, time consuming tasks that you have to do as an investor to figure out what to buy? And how can we automate that, all of it so that the barrier goes away. So you don’t have to sit there time and time again, doing a stock screen, or, you know, fiddling through a news feed for an hour and a half to keep up with what’s going on with your existing investments. We just want to streamline at all we want to give superpowers of investment research to an average person. So we started, you know, this process back in 2019. And it took several years to get it right. Part of it is built on historical academic models of others across the world that have studied, you know, how events impact share prices, some of them are original to us, others, you know, belong to hedge funds that we knew, use some of these event driven strategies and said, You know what, we could do this within our platform, let’s just put that on there. There should, shouldn’t need to have $10 million, you know, to be able to participate in the market. And so we saw subscription costs, very, very low, it’s the equivalent of $19 a month as our starting point. And then it goes up to 167 a month, depending on the tier that people are subscribing for, and the level of information that they want. But it makes it unique, more accessible to more people. So that you don’t have to rely on television stations, which frankly, are very often helping to push a narrative or push a particular stock, right? It’s often that these large asset managers are selling shares while they’re on TV talking about how great stock is because they need to sell 30 million shares. They need, you know, millions of buyers to offload those shares. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  29:54

yeah. So this is a you’re aiming at retail investors so you can Get this on while your browser or your phone, there’s an app for it, I imagine and you said their email alerts, is that right?

Andrew Einhorn  30:07

There’s email alerts. Yeah, we are, you can certainly access it from your phone, we don’t have a specific app, but we have mobile ready. And mobile accessible pages, you can get on your desktop, it’s very easy to use to try to make it as simple as like shopping for a flight on an airline. And unlike even unlike that, where you have to put in your destination, if you want, you can just browse to see, you know, what events that happened recently? And what are the price movements, quickly set an alert, and forget it, you know, and then the alert comes in, it will say, Hey, this is a bullish event. Share price typically moves, you know, X percent over time, or you can look into your own analysis, you know, based on the data that’s in there. So raw, we’ve tried to keep it very, very simple. Good one,

Gene Tunny  30:55

do you have any data on the performance of people who use your platform, or who you who use level fields,

Andrew Einhorn  31:03

we don’t track them. We have regularly, you know, get feedback, like thanks made a bunch of money on this are 1000 today that was, you know, bang for my subscription, 10 times, we do have a level we call it level two service. This is more of our white glove service where we have analysts that monitor the AI alerts. And they kind of cherry pick the best ones, and we’ve sent it out. And it’s really for people that want a little bit more help picking out your entry and your exit point that that service really outperformed our expectations. We we looked at the closed alerts for our first year of operating that and the return was 2,800% cumulative over the course of the year.

Gene Tunny  31:53

Right for the cherry picked alerts. Right. Okay. Do you have any data or any? I guess it’d be a very difficult thing to do. But of all the alerts, I mean, are you giving explicit bias buy or sell recommendations on with these alerts? Or are you just saying this, you should be paying attention to this?

Andrew Einhorn  32:14

Well, it will say, you know, this is a bullish event than in a bullish event, the share price goes up, right, so I tell them to buy, but it will say the share price is gonna go up, you can do whatever you want with that information, and it’s gonna go up by 3% in the first day, and then you know, 75% of the time by day 10, it’s going to be up this much. And so it’s really your job as the investor to say you how you want to play it, we have all types of users of the system, some will just buy it and make a quarter percent every single day. And others want to be able to just find the event that’s going to be up, you know, 100%, and they’re okay, waiting all year for two or three of those, which they do happen. They have others who have a lot of stocks in their portfolio. And what they’re looking to do is just find opportunities to make more money off the stocks that they have. So if they own apple, and Apple has a positive event, they get alerted to that. And they might sell an option contract for extra premium when this bullish event happens. Knowing that on day two, according to the statistics, that particular event actually pulls back to where it was people started to sell. So, you know, we’re we’re not trying to create the strategies per se, for folks, they’re there for the taking. And there’s a lot of guidance on the system. But the data itself is very revealing. It’s like, okay, if you knew every time you walk out the door, what the weather is, like, you know how to dress. This is the same thing. Like, you know what, what to do when these events happen. And that’s been a lot of the problem in the market is often people overreact, because they don’t know how bad the bad news is. They don’t know how good the good news is. And you see this like massive overreaction, you know, 2021, the whole year, but you see it all the time, you know, bow past where it’s supposed to be and then eventually pulls down and people get hurt because they buy at the top, and then they start selling on the way down and then stock goes back up. So, you know, it’s just as much about avoiding bad decisions, as it is finding good investments. And some of the events that we put on there we know, are 5050 they could go either way. You know, there’s a Tesla one on there as an example, and test the product launches. There’s a lot of traders that like to think, oh, every time there’s a new Tesla product, of course, Tesla’s gonna go up. It’s not true. After time goes down. And we we’ve gotten criticism for putting that event type on there. They’re like, well, like Can’t really trade this is 5050. And we’re sort of saying, well, that’s the point. Stop making bad decisions. That’s what we put it on there. So I knew it was like flipping a coin. Yes. Good point. Can I ask what? What markets you and you mentioned, you’re in, so equities in the US and there was what over 6000 companies on? Was it on the s&p. So New York Stock Exchange, Stock Exchange? Yep. Anything traded on the New York Stock Exchange anything on the NASDAQ, and we have some of the larger companies on the OTC so that includes foreign companies that have ADRs that trades in the US, it also includes, you know, the OTC Markets, which are some of the bigger European companies, like Volkswagen, is there. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  35:52

Okay. So just in equities? Are you in fixed income in bonds at all? Now?

Andrew Einhorn  35:57

Not yet, we’re just sticking to straight equities at the moment, although we do have a lot of option traders that use the platform to inform, you know, their particular option trades. Gotcha.

Gene Tunny  36:09

Okay. So as your competitive advantage, you’re getting this information quicker, because you’re getting a you’re looking at these reports that other analysts may not you’re getting a feed? Is it? Is it an API, you’re tapping into an API to get these reports? And then you’ve got the, the AI that analyses them all? Quickly? And there’s some AI magic there, it’s a neural net or some or something? Is that what is that what’s going on? You’re able to get this information in your Hoover it up, analyse it extremely quickly, and then push out the the advice is that essentially, what it’s about, in

Andrew Einhorn  36:51

a way? Yeah, I mean, it’s not necessarily a speed issue. You know, we certainly try to get the information as fast as we can. And largely, we get it within 45 minutes of an event taking place. Or being announced. We get the information ourselves, which means we data mined it ourselves, we pull it in, and we have it. And what the AI is really doing is it’s like a speed reader. So it’s reading 30,000 documents a minute. Yeah, okay, you just got through 30,000 reports. And then within that extracting 21 million events per year. And then looking at a group of events, saying okay, of these 21 million events, which ones actually move the share price and which ones don’t matter. And so then it’s selecting out about five or 6000 events that are known. We call them material events in their material to the share price movement. Once that happens, we’re then identifying what company had that event, pairing it with real time price action from the markets, to then correlate whether or not that particular event has had an impact on that particular equity. And then as we do that, for groups of events, let’s just say, you know, CEO departures, we have every CEO departure in an aggregate data set. And then you can look and say, Well, how to co departures, typically affect share prices, and it’s one click away. And there’s summary statistics that will show you okay, it moves in 4%. And it’s usually a bullish event. And then you can filter that information if you want. So, you know, is it the same cases in energy companies, as in tech companies? Is it the same case in large tech versus small tech, which is not the same case. So very quickly, you can kind of see, you know, with a couple filters, what’s going on there. And now that we have the data, yeah, you can get alerted to it. And you can act on it, if you want to trade it. Or you could just use it to do faster research. You know, by having all that you don’t have to read all that information yourself, because you just knew you now know what the main events are. For the equity that you’re doing research on, let’s see, pull up apple. In the platform, you put Apple Company page, and then you pull up a chart. And typically when you look at a stock chart, its ups and downs, ups and downs. Don’t know why it’s ups and downs, right? We’re just looking at it. And then normally, you would have to say, Okay, why did Apple drop 20% On this day? Let me go to look at a news feed. Let me go to the day of the news and look at the, you know, 300 articles that were about Apple that day and try to find information that would tell me why was it down 20% In this one day, you no longer have to do that. Because right on our charts, we have the event appended there that move the share price. And so you save yourself all that hassle all that time as you look at In Apple graph, you know, there might be 20 events, and each event is right before all those big movements on the graph, you can look at it that way, you could just scroll down the screen and see a list of all the recent events that Apple has has happened product launches, buybacks, dividends and so forth. And you just get within 15 seconds of view of, you know, what are the recent things that have happened to this company. And a lot of that is, is missing from the market today. Because if you were to go to something like a typical stock screener, and your brokerage system, and you’re gonna go, oh, I want to find out, I want to find a stock that has a great dividend, right? You’ll find these companies that have a 12% dividend. And you got to then then your research really begins because you get to find out, is there a weird reason why they have a 12% dividend, and then you pull up the share price? stock chart, and it shows that it was $60. And now it’s a $20 stock, which is why the dividend is now 12%. But why did it drop from $60 to 20? Now you have to go and do that research on our platform, you know, we would tell you, hey, you know, they’re filing for bankruptcy. You don’t need to do any research like that. But then it’s still what it is, they haven’t got it yet. So it’s time savings. It’s finding it investments, monitoring the market at large, setting your research process to be automated, but he’s AI search agents that you can use out of the box that we have or customised yourself, and really just see a lot more of what’s going on in the market and why it’s moving the way it’s moving. Right? So

Gene Tunny  41:43

you say AI search agents, out of the box that you have? Is this stuff you’ve developed? Or you’ve you’ve licenced from somewhere else?

Andrew Einhorn  41:54

No, we build everything from scratch, build everything. Right? Okay. So

Gene Tunny  41:58

you’ve How long have you been going have you been going before GPT and the GPT 3.5, for

Andrew Einhorn  42:06

where we started in 2019. Although I will say we had a company before this for 10 years that we operated, which also was an event monitoring system of sorts. Our client base was actually the publicly traded companies. And so the software system we built in that company did similar monitor events for large corporations. But it wasn’t geared towards investors, it was geared towards the public relations professionals that publicly traded companies. And so we’d see these patterns, and that, you know, something bad would happen, like if it was a train company, that train would come off the tracks for ash into a river or spill pollution, then the share price would plummet on the stock. And they would lose billions of dollars in market cap. And this would happen again. And again. And again, you know, same same type of event, same type of company. In other situations, you might have, you know, a data breach, like a cybersecurity data breach, then the company’s share price would fall. And so our software monitor that, and would send alerts to the corporate affairs and corporate communications people and they would get up in front of the podium where they would get the press releases out. And they would say, well, this wasn’t our fault. You know, they was actually the oil company that overloaded the train. And they would try to shake, save the share price by kind of blame. And so we have a lot of experience in that for 10 years. And then, you know, during that time, we’re like, maybe we on the wrong side of this issue, you know, we’re saving these people, billions of dollars a year. Maybe we should be using, you know, our knowledge and events to help make investments. And we sort of put that aside for a little while, sold the company and then started a new company and started checking with different ideas of what we could do with AI and how do we prove what we did the last 10 years. And then COVID hit in 2020. And it was like Aha, events, events, change everything that’s focused on events.

Gene Tunny  44:09

I do and day they’re doing day. You’ve got a fascinating backstory there. And I might, I’ll link in the show notes to a interview you did with on the side hustle city podcast, which was really good interview. And yeah, you told the full story and how you did consulting work for the Pentagon. I think it was and and then yeah, yeah. And your management, did management consulting, you did a grad, you did graduate studies at George Washington, if I remember correctly. So you’ve got an academic background, too, which is great. Yeah, so I’ll put a link in the show notes to that. I’ve just got a couple more questions. I’m wondering about hedge funds because one thing, some of the points you’re making, I’m thinking of that’s similar to the Ray Dalio Philosophy of because he’s he’s very interested in history and looking at how historical events played out and learning from those learning from events in the past. Imagine something, you know, Bridgewater or other hedge funds around the place, they must be interested in this sort of thing. Are they? Do you have any hedge fund clients? Are they like competitors of yours? Or how do you see? How do you see the other financial market players?

Andrew Einhorn  45:25

We don’t have a hedge fund clients, we certainly have some that have come to us. I don’t know if they’re pretending to be client or wanting to be a client, but they’re certainly interested in our methodologies and technology. I think, you know, just like any new tech in the market, you’re going to piss off some people. Have they cornered? And, you know, we’re trying to give some of these strategies to the general population and democratise access, and not everyone likes that. So we’re expecting it, you know, and the right now, you know, we’re for a self directed investor construct. The platform says it’s for personal use, commercial use, you know, will we make an API, you know, that can be accessed in the future? For certain types of data? Maybe, you know, we’re we’re looking at different ways that we could look, take our massive amounts of data that we have, and kind of enable different levels of processing of that data set. So yeah, I mean, it’s, it’s it’s an interesting marketplace, and that there are a lot of different strategies that people are deploying, there are large firms that have event driven strategies, some of them are fairly straightforward. Some of them are complicated. And it is a factor of historical information. But how you can utilise these patterns in the market to make better investments to make quicker money. I mean, the most famous trade in the world at this point was Bill Ackman straight during COVID, where he shorted the market while being on television, telling everybody to panic on CNBC, and made, you know, a couple billion dollars on that market short. And so the fund returned something like 75% that year. So when you can do those massive trades, then it’s great. You know, why? Why would you sit in the market all year, and watch, you know, these constant ebbs and flows of events, change the trajectory, or you’ve got wars that are breaking out, we have, you know, freighters that are being shot at oil prices are up, oil prices are down to nothing like you can’t, you know, and then you’re trying to be an investor and buy and hold philosophy, and then maybe you got a gain or you lose for the year, it doesn’t make sense to sit there forever, when you can just make that in a short period of time, hang out in cash at 5% yield, and then go back into the market when it’s safer. So our kind of method, or general philosophy really puts the buy and hold method on notice. And raw calls BS, okay, and says, you know, what, buy and hold is great if you’ve got the greatest stocks in the history of the market. But most of the time, it doesn’t work out so well. You know, GE, was the biggest stock in the s&p 500 in 2002. Now, it’s below where it was trading 20 years ago, that you’re buying and holding, you’re constantly losing money for two decades. You know, likewise, if you were to buy the s&p 500, in 2000, you would not make a single dollar until 2013 13 years later. So yeah, there’s a lot of these market myths about how long you should be holding and, you know, dollar cost averaging and things like that, that are that are kind of baked in narratives pushed by asset managers, banks, so you keep your money parked with them, and they can make money off your money. Yeah, look,

Gene Tunny  49:19

I think you make a lot of good points there, we might have to have you back on the show served over the future to have to have this discussion. Because I mean, I’m, as an economist, I am sympathetic to the view of, you know, just, you know, it’s time and time and time in the market beats timing the market, if you know what I mean. So I’m sympathetic to the view that the best thing you can do is just, you know, invest in the index and just let it grow over time. But I have to I do take your points. I don’t want to have a I don’t want to debate it out now. But it might be good to have a discussion in the future because I think it’s yeah, it’s a really important issue that you’re getting out there in terms of how we think about Investing.

Andrew Einhorn  50:01

Oh, yeah. And you know, I would just add that the argue, but it depends on your timeline. Right. Like it’s great. Yes. He’s got unlimited time. Fantastic. Eventually it’ll be right. Yeah, someday. But for a lot of people, they need to access their money. It’s an unreasonable assumption, you know that you’re not going to touch your money for 20 years.

Gene Tunny  50:19

Yeah. Yeah. I think one of the points. Yeah, it’s, it’s a, it’s an important point you’re making and I mean, one of the challenges like in Australia here, we’re we’ve moved towards individual retirement accounts, we move toward that in the 90s. And so a lot of people ended up, they’re relying on Super, and then, you know, what happens if you’re a retiree? And then, you know, the market goes down? 40%, like it did in the financial crisis, right. And then yeah, I mean, it’s

Andrew Einhorn  50:49

bad times every time when you’re 78 years old.

Gene Tunny  50:53

Yeah. People ended up having to keep working for for several years. But yeah, that was a that was an awful event. Right. Yeah, that bill, that was it. Bill Ackman. You mentioned with a, I’m gonna have to look up that. I mean, that’s outrageous. And that’s why, you know, that’s what outrages the public about, you know, the activities on Wall Street’s I remember seeing

Andrew Einhorn  51:14

it live. I mean, he just, he scared the hell out of me. When I was watching TV. I was like, I didn’t think it was gonna be this bad. But now I do. Yeah. Shocking. If you just Google greatest trade of all time. Yeah. You’ll you’ll see the data sources on it. But you know, the fact is, was that a lot of this stuff, that historical data gives you plenty of ammo for how to navigate the markets, for instance, the look back at Zika and SQL, but yeah, that was spreading and in 2016. And they closed the ports of Miami. And the cruise ship stocks, on average dropped about six and a half percent when they close those ports. COVID had a transmission inside the country for the first time in the US, I think it was in Houston. And cruise ship stocks went down six and a half percent. Same reaction to the virus just seven hours later. So there’s always historical reference. And you gotta remember that the people who are moving the markets are also looking at the history of

Gene Tunny  52:21

IT. Yeah. People like Ray Dalio is crew at Bridgewater. Yeah, absolutely. Very good point. Right. Final, final question. I just want to ask you, like, what’s the reaction among the financial establishment to this approach? Because there’s a, I was just wondering about it, because there was a very negative opinion piece by Gregory Zuckerman in the Wall Street Journal last year. So April 12 2023. Ai can write a song, but it can’t be the market quants have tried for decades with limited success. At the biggest challenge, all very negative about it. I mean, how do you react? What do you think about what do you think about that? I mean, what’s the what’s the reaction out there to what you’re trying to do?

Andrew Einhorn  53:12

Well, there’s there’s two questions there. The first is, you know, the, the article itself, I think is, has a little bit of a misnomer about what AI is, and only is right, there’s this belief that AI is sort of the profit, right, it’s sort of the crystal ball that can see the future because it’s, you know, super crunching all these numbers and coming up with perfect algorithms that humans can’t possibly imagine. And there are certain people that are working on that. But largely, that’s not what AI is, AI is, for the most part, replacing kind of grunt tasks that we don’t want to do anymore. Things that humans can do, the computers can just do faster and at scale. And so you know, when you say something like aI can’t beat the market, but it’s really saying is an AI created algorithm to beat the market won’t beat the market. And there’s been very little development of sort of AI generated algorithms. It’s usually a human using AI to crunch numbers and then coming up with the algorithm that it then allows AI to execute. So the human is integrated through the whole process. And just by that biassing, the outcome of this, you know, assessment. I would take the view that, you know, AI is a tool in the toolbox of doing whatever you want to do much like a hammer versus a power drill. Difference. Yeah, you know, you could go hammer out the nails, or you could have a nail gun. And the AI is the nail gun for most tasks. And so if you’ve got a nail gun, you’re gonna get your job done faster than the guy that’s sitting there. with a hammer, gotcha.

Gene Tunny  55:00

Yeah, yeah. Okay, so all fascinating. Andrew, really, really enjoyed the conversation, are you looking at extending into, say, Australia or the UK because your us focused or have I got that wrong, where

Andrew Einhorn  55:14

us focus, but we, we actually collect data in about 35,000 different equities. We’ve just been rolling out, kind of slow and steady to make sure we don’t overwhelm the user. Those stocks do include Australian stocks, they do include, you know, the London Stock Exchange. So, you know, if demand is high enough, we’ll provide access to that and the same model. A lot of the large stocks, you know, it’s in both of those exchanges, like AstraZeneca, for example, or, you know, forget big mining companies that are ADRs that do trade in the US. Trade in the US market, I was trying to remember what the big mining companies in Australia but not remembering Olga bhp,

Gene Tunny  56:01

Rio Tinto, so yeah, so

Andrew Einhorn  56:05

those are in the system, you know, as an example, okay. Because global again, and you know, anything above generally, about $10 billion market cap is going to be traded in the US exchanges. Gotcha. Okay.

Gene Tunny  56:19

Excellent. All right. Andrew, on hold, this has been terrific. Any final points before we wrap up,

Andrew Einhorn  56:25

I would just say, you know, if, if you’re interested, and you’re out jogging, or you’re working out at the gym, while you’re listening to this, the company name is level fields, AI, you know, text yourself, write it down. If you don’t feel like you can use it for your own investments, you probably know somebody that might please get the word out. We have a discount code of podcast 23 that you can apply. And you can get a discount on this subscription. Rod. Is

Gene Tunny  56:56

that all caps? So

Andrew Einhorn  56:57

does it matter? It doesn’t matter? No. Okay, excellent. The number 23 for level fields

Gene Tunny  57:03

mastering Okay, enter on well, and thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed the conversation. And yeah, I really learned a lot. And for sure, this is this is part of the, the way of the future. So it’s fascinating to learn what people are doing out there like yourself. So all the best with it in the future. And I look forward to seeing more of what you’re doing in in future years. So thanks so much.

Andrew Einhorn  57:29

Thank you. I appreciate having me on and happy to come back and have that buy and hold debate. Good

Gene Tunny  57:35

one. I think about that for sure. Okay. Thanks, Andrew.

Andrew Einhorn  57:38

Thank you,

Gene Tunny  57:41

Rocco. Thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

58:28

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

The Tax Reform Debate: Cutting Through the Spin w/ Simon Cowan, CIS – EP228

This episode examines the need for tax reform in Australia and debates various options for overhauling the country’s tax system. Host Gene Tunny is joined by Simon Cowan from the Centre for Independent Studies to discuss issues like bracket creep, the progressivity of the tax system, mining royalties, and negative gearing. They also analyse the political strategies around the stage three tax cuts. Cowan argues the tax system has become too reliant on income tax and higher-income individuals.

Please get in touch with us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google Podcasts, Apple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest Simon Cowan

Simon Cowan is Research Director at the CIS. He is a leading commentator on policy and politics, with a regular column in the Canberra Times newspaper, frequent interviews on Sky and the ABC, and multiple appearances before parliamentary committees discussing the budget, citizenship, taxation and health policy. He has written extensively on government spending and fiscal policy, with a specific focus on welfare and superannuation policy. He earlier work focused on government industry policy, defence and regulation.

What’s covered in EP228

  • Australian tax system overhaul and cost of living relief. (0:04)
  • Tax bracket creep and its impact on income. (5:14)
  • Tax system and progressivity. (9:44)
  • Tax cuts and political strategy in Australia. (15:29)
  • Tax system in Australia, income tax reliance, and potential changes. (21:13)
  • Taxation, welfare, and the burden on working-age population. (26:02)
  • Tax reform and its challenges in Australia. (31:03)
  • Taxation and resource extraction in Australia. (38:05)
  • Australian tax system and potential reforms. (45:42)

Takeaways

1. Australia’s tax system has become overly reliant on income tax and needs to diversify its revenue sources.
2. Bracket creep is a real problem that has not been adequately addressed, particularly for higher-income earners.
3. Both major political parties have taken cynical, short-term positions on tax reforms that are not in the best interests of the economy.
4. Expenditure reform, including controlling the growth of programs like the NDIS, is needed to reduce the tax burden.
5. Lowering company taxes could boost business investment and economic growth in Australia.

Links relevant to the conversation

Simon’s article on the stage 3 tax cuts:

https://www.cis.org.au/commentary/opinion/labors-tax-backflip-all-the-easier-against-an-opposition-with-no-spine

AFR article (pay-walled) “Royalty hike and IR overhaul threaten critical mineral pipeline: BHP”:

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/royalty-hike-and-ir-overhaul-threaten-critical-mineral-pipeline-bhp-20231119-p5el3y

QLD Government announcement on coal royalty hike:

https://statements.qld.gov.au/statements/95467

Grattan Institute’s view on tax reform: https://grattan.edu.au/news/thats-not-tax-reform-this-would-be-tax-reform/

Transcript: Revisiting Ricardo: The Rise and Fall of Ricardian Equivalence

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Simon Cowan  00:04

So people were expected to live. I think it was about 10 or 12 years in retirement in the 70s. Now that she goes above 20 And these are all years where, you know, people are healthy and consuming. I mean, it’s a fantastic story as a society, we haven’t yet figured out how to pay for it.

Gene Tunny  00:32

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning into the show. In this episode, I talk about tax reform with my colleague Simon Cowan, who is research director at the Centre for independent studies is widespread agreement the Australian tax system needs an overhaul. But there’s a big debate over what reform should look like. It’s a debate that’s heated up ever since the federal government redesigned a legislated tax cut earlier this year, the so called stage three tax cut it redesign a tax cut, so it provides more relief for lower income earners, and less relief for higher income earners. The government has been accused of class warfare by the opposition. But the government claims is doing this because economic circumstances have changed and that this is the best way to deliver cost of living relief. Now there’s speculation the government may change other tax laws, particularly those regarding the taxation of investment properties. It’s going to be a highly charged debate on the Australian tax system this year for sure. This episode, Simon cuts through the spin from both sides and provides some great insights into what tax changes would be good for the Australian economy and community. As always, I’d be interested to hear what you think about the issues we discussed in the show. So please get in touch and share your thoughts. You can find my contact details in the show notes. Right? Oh, we’d better get into it. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Simon Cowell from the CIS. Dom And good to have you back on the show. Yeah,

Simon Cowan  02:26

my pleasure to be here.

Gene Tunny  02:27

Excellent. Simon, you’ve written a really hard hitting piece. This was one of your regular op eds in the Canberra Times if I remember if I forgot that, right. Yeah,

Simon Cowan  02:39

absolutely channelled a bit of my inner anger at the tax changes.

Gene Tunny  02:44

Yeah. So Labour’s tax backflip, all the easier against an opposition with no spine. So you basically rip into both the governing party, so the Labour Party, which is in government at the federal level in Australia now. And the opposition. So the opposition originally opposed this, what they what became known as the stage three tax cuts, which involves a flattening of the tax, the progressivity of the tax system, getting rid of one of the tax brackets, and there was an accusation that they provided too much tax relief at the top end. So I’m keen to get your thoughts on why you’ve, you’ve come out strong about on this issue, I’m just wondering, should the stage three tax cuts have gone ahead as proposed? Or would you have been willing to have accepted some changes in the interest of cost of living relief? Look,

Simon Cowan  03:46

so I think my ideal situation is to add the labour lower income tax cuts on top of the existing strikethrough package. So I think, you know, one of the things it’s quite reasonable for governments to do, especially when their boss surpluses distribute some of that surplus to its taxpayers, and so I would have been okay with a change that resulted in additional tax reliefs being provided to people in middle income brackets. I think there were other potential options that could have been added on so for example, they wanted to eat extra tax brackets, while also perhaps reducing some of the benefit from the stage three casting that might have been acceptable to because at least then it would have fixed the problem that the stage three tax cuts will design to resolve. But at the end of the day, my biggest concern is that this entire debate has been filled with terrible information, terrible assessment, labour and liberals have both taken what I think quite cynical and short term pull legal positions. And as a result, I think they’ve, they’ve banned the use to manage the handling of this whole tax burden. Right. Okay.

Gene Tunny  05:08

So what were the what were those elements of the stage sort of three tax cut? You like? Did you like the fact that it was becoming less progressive is that? Yeah,

Simon Cowan  05:21

so I think there’s there’s probably two elements that I thought were were worth preserving and worth pursuing. So flattening the tax brackets, I think was a good idea. But I mean, a number of people in sort of PAMPs, classical liberal ideas and suggested flat taxes, that appears to be politically difficult to do, but I would have certainly advocated for flattening your tax structure, to a large extent where most people who were working are facing the same marginal rate. Obviously, that system remains progressive. It’s not a regressive system, but it would flat in the brackets. But I think the bigger issue here is that people are in the top quarter or so of the distribution hadn’t seen any substantial return of bracket creep since about 2010. So there was a small benefit provided as a result of moving stage two forward during the pandemic. But since then, inflation has been running at seven or 8%. So we’ve got this enormous, ongoing impact pre that has been focused on the topic of the redistribution, we saw taxes cut, at the lower end is repeatedly in 2012 13, carbon tax was introduced, that compensation was was retained. We saw, you know, the initial stage one benefits, we saw the introduction of low and medium income tax offset. So there’s been a lot of bracket creep return across other parts of distribution, but none of it has been returned to the top end. And I think, you know, stepping beyond the politics of just least tax cut, we’ve now established a principle that says that higher income people no longer deserve to be compensated to bracket creep. And I think that’s a terrible law to introduce into our tax system. Bracket creep is only fair. It’s a it’s a stealth tax. And it shouldn’t be allowed to just run rampant because you’ve got a fascination and fetish of higher income tax. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  07:29

so bracket creep is the process whereby due to inflation, you end up in a higher tax bracket, even though your real income may not be any higher in real terms, because it’s just the effects of inflation. And suddenly, the government’s getting more money from you that you’re facing a higher tax rate.

Simon Cowan  07:49

That’s right. So your real, your real income stays the same, but your tax bill goes up. As a result, your disposable income, your living standards go down. That happens every year, bracket creep wasn’t a massive issue in the latter half of the 2010s, because inflation is so low. But since they and the massive injection of stimulus from the Reserve Bank and the government in 2020 21, drove inflation up to almost double digits across the western world. And it that bracket creeps taking a significant hit on people’s incomes and and you know, stage three, I think we’ve got some work coming out soon and analyses the the cumulative impact of that stage three, when didn’t return all that bracketry that had accumulated over the course of those 1014 years. And now that compensations been cutting hearts. Right.

Gene Tunny  08:44

Okay. So this is CIS. We’ll have some research coming out on that. Great. Absolutely,

Simon Cowan  08:49

yeah, we’ve got some some really good work being done by some of my colleagues that looks at and try looks at the issue of bracket credit, but also tries to correct the narrative that’s been pushed forward of these stage three tax cuts, costing hundreds of millions of dollars, based on the incredibly unrealistic assumption that there would be no return of bracket proof for more than two decades that that was just, I mean, that was a ridiculous assumption to make. It was my Western liberal party that has a vested interest in higher taxes. And it’s been accepted wholesale by the media is, oh, the State Street tax cuts cost all leads. And we saw, you know, the height of absurdity when inflation went up seven or 8%. And all this bracket Creek was ripping off people. These are the cost of steaks three has gone up and over $4 billion. What what an absurdity.

Gene Tunny  09:45

Yeah, yeah. So this is one of the reasons I mean, you know, the bigger reason is the higher commodity prices and higher corporate profits, but this is it’s made a contribution to the budget surplus that the treasurer has declared, hasn’t it? Yeah, yeah.

Simon Cowan  09:59

You Yeah, well as Australia is incredibly dependent on income tax, I mean, we do receive significant swings in revenue as a result of commodity prices in particular. But Australia globally is highly dependent on income tax, and as a result bracket is highly beneficial to the government. It’s one of the reasons I think why, apart from a very short experimentation, indexation, if you give a 70s or 80s, it’s you ever really seriously be considered? Yeah,

Gene Tunny  10:29

yeah. Yeah, I want to ask you about the structure of our tax system in a moment. But before we get there, I want to ask about this point about having a flatter tax system and because equity is, is, is there an equity principles with tax design, there’s vertical equity, horizontal equity. This This relates to vertical equity, and this idea that if you have a greater ability to pay, you pay more, which, you know, there’s a community acceptance of that, or there’s community support for that. But from what do you see as the advantages of having a less progressive tax system? Do you think our tax system has been too progressive? What are the Why would you actually try and reduce that progressivity?

Simon Cowan  11:21

Yeah, so that’s, that’s a really good point. So for the first few states, the tax system has been becoming progressively more progressive for a number of years now. And it’s because every time any tax reform is proposed, everything is analysed through the lens of does any benefit go to higher income earners? And the answer is yes. And that’s wrong. And instead of the appropriate way, if it needs to be analysed as across the whole system is the system as a whole progressive, what we’ve sort of defaulted to is every individual measure has to always be more progressive. So the system has become more and more progressive over time. And what we’ve seen is that the percentage of people who are not next, net taxpayers has increased from I think, slightly below 50%, to more than 60%. Now. And so the the tax burden is concentrating more and more on the top end of town, you know, this, this idea that the rich people aren’t paying their fair share, I think flies in the face of a lot of evidence. So there’s that component, like why shouldn’t you know, we need to reverse some of that excessive focus on on vertical equity. I mean, I think there’s also a horizontal equity argument that suggests that people who are working should be facing roughly similar tax rates, I think that’s a fairly obvious point, if you’re, if you’re working a job and receiving an income, the your circumstances are at least comparable to people who are working, even if their incomes, the slightly less, I think there’s also an incentive argument here, where what we’re doing is bringing down the overall rate of taxation, trying to lower some of the distance agents at the top in which, you know, we saw the highest income tax rates, lower, he was really invitees to the level that they’re at now. But since May, we’ve had a number of ladies NDIS levy came in I income tax levy that Abbott introduced early in his tenure. So we’ve seen this sort of slow increase in the top rate aside, so you, we should bracket. And I think we get each or get, you know, people are facing, you know, effective marginal tax rates in the 50s or higher. And I think there’s a benefit to lowering that. So it’s not so much. I mean, I think there are arguments why you want to reduce the focus, even in some respects, and I think what you actually really needs to do is lower the tax rates across the board. And this is one way to start that process. Right?

Gene Tunny  14:01

And is that that’s to encourage work effort and innovation, entrepreneurship. Yeah,

Simon Cowan  14:07

so absolutely all of those students, but I think there’s also a moral argument to this, where, you know, the government is acting as if your income belongs to them, and you should be grateful when they allow you to keep some portion of it. And and, you know, the analysis seems to be that people who are receiving government benefits or low income deserve more of the higher income people’s income than they do. And I mean, you know, I think there’s a moral difference there. People who people should be entitled to receive as much of the benefit of their hard work as they care and a tech to redistribute from the perspective of trying to sort of equalise incomes, rather than try only to provide a safety net to be at the bottom it. I think the more that our tax system tries to create that, that equalisation for equity purposes, and the less that it focuses on, on, you know, sort of the issue of absolute inequality, the absolute poverty issues that people bought again, I think that’s a mistake. I think people should be entitled to keep their income, regardless of the income level. They’re right.

Gene Tunny  15:30

And why do you get stuck into the opposition? Simon, what did they do wrong in terms of prosecuting or trying to get this stage three tax cut up? Yeah.

Simon Cowan  15:43

So look, I mean, a lot of people talked about Labour’s broken promises. And I’m happy to put the buoy to them as well. But I think this situation coalition had established a tax cut package over an absurd period of time. They didn’t really prosecute the case for stage three, at any point, they stopped prosecuting the case for stage three, well, actually, before the 2020. Election, effectively, I think they adopted Labor’s position that it was unfair, and they were just hoping this political pressure here, but in all honesty, I mean, I don’t think they they were committed to that process. I think they passed the stage three cuts for largely political reasons. And I think they abandoned them. The first chance they got this was about trying to minimise the tail vote in 2022, was designed to try and bind high income earners to the coalition in 2019. It was designed to try and wedge labour whilst they want office falling 2022. And you know, then they just said, Well, we’re not we’re not going to bother even trying to really defend this, we’ll just roll over, we will allow them to pass their legislation on on I think, very flimsy grounds. And that’ll be that’ll be it. The thing is, the coalition had two fantastic opportunities to address this issue. And so when they won the 2019 election, they could have fast track the process for the tax cuts so that they occurred within the timeframe of that government. So that, you know, the, this is preganglionic prepaying. And they could have said we’re going to restage to forward to next year we’re going to bring stage three for the 2022. And at that point, those tax reforms they believed in, they would have been on before the call, and they wouldn’t be in Facebook coalition whatsoever. And then, so they didn’t do that, when the pandemic happened. And they shovelled the equivalent of 275 $300 billion out of the door. They threw money at every half baked scheme that they could take off. You know, they had they doubled unemployment benefits, they had all this pay for people who were out of work, we tried to companies to talk about them. So it’s about anyone out there was all of this stimulus to everywhere, right, they brought forward stage two, they had a massive deficit. But they did not touch the stage during tax cuts, they did not bring them forward at any point, even when the issue of deficits didn’t matter at all. And I think they did that for political reasons. And because they didn’t believe in what they had proposed. That I think for that reason, and the fact that they rolled over so quickly on it, I think they deserve almost as much blame as labour does.

Gene Tunny  18:28

Yes, yes. The interesting point about the TEALS. So they wanted to keep this to, or they wanted to signal that they at least supported this idea of eventually having this return of bracket creep to the higher income earners, because there’s they’re under threat from these independents. In the the seats, where there are a lot of wealthy residents, such as a Lego spenders seat is at Wentworth is that where are they and all of that? Yeah,

Simon Cowan  18:59

I actually think this is a this is a fascinating little sort of piece of political analysis. So I’d be inclined to just have a chat our way through is that you go back to the 1970s, right? And we’d look at the distribution of how people voted. And overwhelmingly higher income people voted for the coalition and lower income people voted for lately. I think a lot of that had to do with the prominence and trade union leave the class based analysis that the left of politics was enmeshed in right. What we saw in particular then as well was that the percentage of people who had a university degree was was relatively small. See, because high income earners for for most of history have trended right, but university graduates have trended left. And so, over time as the percentage of university graduates increased, and they went through the economy and became it, you see the higher income earner vote shift to the to the left. So these blue ribbon coalition seats in the, you know, the sort of north shore of Sydney and you know that sort of to rack in places in Melbourne that had voted for the coalition, which are 100 gig, it was suddenly at risk. Now, you know, and this, this trend has been going on for a decade or more give you looking at American political analysis, right, almost all the higher income earners in the areas we’re hiring come on as a vote Democrat, almost none of them vote for the Republicans. And that hadn’t been the case as much in Australia. So we saw a massive increase in university students starting to shift to higher income voters further towards the left coalition seems this demographic shift, they see the shifting votes, and they think to themselves, what am I going to do to fix this problem? And so what they did was say, Okay, we’re going to create a, effectively a political witch, we know that Labour will repeal these tax cuts, almost certainly they get it offence, will say the only way to get a $9,000 tax cut for you higher income earners in Wentworth and elsewhere in North Sydney, and all those other is to vote for the coalition. But not just in the 2019 election, he bought a boat to polish in 2022. And so, you know, I think a lot of this was very cynically aimed at trying to, you know, provide a massive benefit to these higher income people in these receipts. And, you know, I think one of the reasons why the coalition potentially roll over on this so quickly is tears picked up all of those seats nearly at the last election. And there’s no real indication that they’re all coming back to the coalition anytime soon. So the benefit to them of fighting on this score seems I think, to be somewhat less, but it’s a result of demographic and political shift that’s been in place for decades now. It’s just sort of manifested in the last, you know, really, obviously, in the last two election. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  22:06

yeah. Yeah, I think you’re right there. Right. So I might ask you about the structure of the tax system. I think you were suggesting this before. In OECD D data tend to back this up that were toward the top in terms of the reliance of our tax system on income tax, aren’t we relative to your direct taxes? Do you have any thoughts on? You know, what would that you know? Are you advocating for switch in the tax mix? What would that look like? What are your thoughts on that, Simon? So look, I

Simon Cowan  22:41

think that, fundamentally, that’s where things should go. And as the Australian state gets bigger, which seems to be inevitable at this point, unfortunately, again, despite our best, as the Australian state gets bigger, we can’t continue to rely on income tax to find that borrows in government spending and almost no other country, in certainly in the OECD funds, an enormous state, primarily through income taxes. You know, what we see is these these sort of European welfare states are, they provide a lot of benefits and a lot of benefits, I think that go to the middle class, not just people at the bottom. And, you know, there’s a wide spread of benefits of total social security with those things funded by large scale indirect taxes. So Australia started down that path in 2000. But the GST was then hobbled, because of the deal that had to be made to get it passed. So it was restricted from the sort of offsetting, or the state income taxes, state taxes that were supposed to replace, if then proven quite difficult to increase. And I think one of the main reasons for that is, as Malcolm Turnbull found during the two weeks that he will put this issue back in 2016. The vast majority of benefit from a taxi next week would have to be given an act to people in conflict, Lauren, one people in compensation. So you end up with relatively low revenue benefits from changing tax rates, because you ended up having to provide even more benefit to people, you’ve bought them off, and then you’ve got a you’ve got another problem there, which is that over time, as I said, I think I said before, over time, more and more people have become net tax recipients rather than that tax payers. Yeah. And there’s no real prospect of that changing. So, you know, a broad scale increase in an indirect tax would shift that, but that would then require someone to prosecute that argument. Let’s see. I mean, that seems unlikely.

Gene Tunny  25:05

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  25:10

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Gene Tunny  25:40

Now back to the show. Yeah, so I’m just for clarity with this, these net tax recipients or benefit beneficiaries of the tax system. So we’re talking about you look at what people pay in tax, and then what they get back from the federal government in terms of transfers. And it’s not. It’s Is it a lot of what is often criticised as middle class welfare.

Simon Cowan  26:10

Yeah, so some of you it is, I mean, a lot of it too, though, is in terms of like, benefits from education and free health care and those sorts of things. So there’s, you know, there’s, you look at the concept of direct transfers, and offset that against income, and that, that takes a significant portion of the population out of pay tax, and especially with superannuation be tax free in retirement, that knocks out a massive proportion of society. And then you have a lot of I mean, even sort of top income quintile, you still see some government benefits, especially eternities of things like, you know, government support for schools and government support for for health care and, and seniors health cards, for example, those sorts of benefits that that it all adds up, right. And what we what we see is, over time, the number of people who are a contributing contributors is staying relatively constant, the number of net recipients is increasing, and more and more people are going to have to shoulder the tax burden. Again, if you look back to the 1970s, there’s a dependency ratio of people who are overworked people who are not in work, but something like seven to wildland now that’s falling towards almost two to one three to one. And that results in a huge increase in the burden on people who are working to fund those who are not.

Gene Tunny  27:42

Right. So historically, we had, yeah, I don’t I can’t remember the exact figures. But you know, seven to one, so seven workers for every person who was retired, and it’s fallen to two to one or whatever it is. Yeah,

Simon Cowan  27:57

yeah, I think it’s I think it’s about it’s my recollection, last generation of borders, that it’s now gone, I’m sure that it’s going to head to three on potentially lower over time. Yeah. And that’s, I mean, that alone is a real problem. It’s one of the reasons why we’ve been so concerned about an ageing population. And there’s a whole bunch of factors that play to that. I mean, a lot of it comes down to increases in life expectancy, both at birth and life expectancy in retirement. So, you know, people were expected to live, I think it was about 10 or 12 years in retirement and seven years, now that she goes above 20. And these are all years where, you know, people are healthy and consuming. I mean, it’s a fantastic story as a society. We haven’t yet figured out how to pay for it, or Yeah,

Gene Tunny  28:48

exactly. And particularly this NDIS. That’s hugely costly. And we’re struggling to control the cost of that as well. On the the switch in the tax system toward more indirect taxes. I mean, Australia has a GST of 10%. But it doesn’t apply to fresh food. It doesn’t apply to health and education. That’s that deal you were referring to with the Democrats. The other thing is, yeah, the the other point you’re making is there would be compensation. I mean, given the politics of it, they’d have to compensate lower income earners, because it’s going to fall. Well, they that lower income earners a higher proportion of their their income spent on consumption, and so therefore, they’re going to it’s going to affect them more in proportional terms. Right. Yeah, exactly.

Simon Cowan  29:41

And I think so the bargain, it’s been at the European particular, is effectively that they’ve been willing to accept higher taxes on the middle class, in exchange for a broader based welfare system. And, I mean, it’s like an explicit deal, obviously, but that wasn’t Basically how all this was was done, and it wasn’t done in the last 10 or 15 years, this is the process has been in place for decades now. And what we have is a portion of Australian politics was effectively trying to create the spending half of that deal. But funded by taxation on only the quote unquote, Rich. So and it’s it creates a fundamental mismatch to the I keep getting given this idea that you can get more from government, on average, and give to government on average. And that simply can’t be true for the bulk of the population. That’s a systemic debt problem. If, if that’s the way that things are organised, but we keep being told that, you know, for example, we can, the NDIS can grow at 40% a year and Social Security can continue to grow, and pensions can be next to wages, all of these things can happen. And the rich and multinational corporations and somehow pay for it all. And I’d say I think that’s a very short sighted and unrealistic approach to a tax system. But, you know, we’ve had a number of attempts, increasingly futile, in the last, I would say 1515 years to reform to undertake a wholesale reform of the tax system, which would allow us to move a lot of pieces at once, rather than try to move any individual piece. Yeah, those attempts have been frustrated. Time and time again. I mean, you only have to look at the Henry Tax Review. Where I think the Rudd Government cherry pick one of about 70 Something he recommendations and, you know, we had Joe hotkey to cover his own tax review. And I don’t even think that got to the point of making recommendations before it was cancelled. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  31:56

that’s because yeah, Turnbull came in and cancelled it. It was a bit. Yeah, it was really, it was actually I think they were doing a good job because I was just on my old tertiary colleagues were Roger brake, and Graham Davis, were running that. And I’d often catch up with them. When they’re in Brisbane, I thought they were doing a great job. They’re going around the country, talking to people and finding out what they thought about the tax system. But when Turnbull got any word interested, sadly, yeah,

Simon Cowan  32:22

and I think that’s, I mean, that’s sort of part of the background raising why why I was so harsh on the coalition in relation to this tax reform package, because I think, you know, they had an opportunity to reform spending through the commission of audit, and they bungled that because the West Australian Senate rerun in 2014, they had an opportunity with the tax reform process, and then their, their leadership spills No, as adequately captured on this, this a recent ABC programme nemesis, fundamentally undercut a whole suite of policy reforms plus a number of different areas. We had this supposedly, broad tax, the stone foam package that was introduced in sort of 2017 2018 that a lot of that is now not going to happen. So when was the last time we had a substantive? Like a real look at that tax system? It’s, what 15 years? Yeah,

Gene Tunny  33:17

that’d be right. Since? Yeah, the Henry review, which would have been started in Yeah, it must have been an OA because I remember contributing to some of just one of their early documents. I can’t remember. Yeah, so it must start at? Oh, 809 10. Yeah. So yeah, yeah.

Simon Cowan  33:33

Well, that’s because it’s Kevin Rudd, when he came into office, started two fairly substantive processes. One was the review on welfare spending in 2009, that resulted in effective and locking in a massive increasing age patient for decades on end. And the Henry view was sort of the other bookend of that. But we ended up with a locked in spending and the tax reform sort of got abandoned. And now what we see is people who are trying to increase the size of the state and increase revenue are effectively trying to pick off individual tax bases one at a time. So you know, and see the push, having overturned the stationary tax cuts a week ago, we’re now already on to negative gearing and capital gains tax reforms. And, you know, I saw a tweet today from from a researcher at competing think tank, the effectively said, you know, none of these reforms are going to have a big impact on house prices, we should just do them so we can get the revenue. I mean, I think that that sort of explains a lot about how we’ve gotten to where we’ve gotten on on our tax reform process. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  34:41

yeah. I think I saw the same thing on LinkedIn. If it was from Brendan Coates was, yeah, Brenda’s I’ve had Brendan on the show before. So Brendan is an old colleague of mine, but yeah, I mean, gratins got a particular view on what they see is, you know, excessively generous concession And to landlords and also on Super. So I mean, that’s, like, broadly what do you think about all of that? Simon? I mean, the, like, if you look at the tax expenditure statement from the treasury, they will be reporting significant amounts of money in in well, they’re not tax expenditures, they report the concession for negative. Yeah, or the deductions for negative gearing, and then they report tax expenditures on things like super. I mean, what are your thoughts on those items and the logic of making changes there? Well,

Simon Cowan  35:37

I think a number of those measures are deeply unrealistic. They are effectively and should so you know, look at the numbers that are applied with superannuation concessions, and they assume that you’ll play a full marginal rates on your contributions, you’ll pay full marginal rates on your earnings in the farm, that you buy full marginal rates and earnings at the back end. There’s no retirement system in the world. The South even vaguely like that. Yeah. Right. So so this idea that there’s this massive honey bonds, people have money that can be taken from I mean, if you apply punitive taxation rates to saving and yeah, you might be able to get some revenue from that. But that doesn’t make it a good idea. And it doesn’t make it a realistic comparison. And so, you know, when you see it applied to a more realistic benchmark, the cost of those concessions fall dramatically. I think there are a number of reasons why super should have been reformed substantially during the last term of government, I would have identified a slight strolling increase in the compulsory contributions, because I didn’t think that was a good thing for people, especially when incomes were growing at such a low rate, why the government would force you to contribute that income to effectively an industry super fund seemed like a bad idea to me. But it went ahead anyway. That I see a lot of these tax measures and the tax expenditure statement, and the idea that, you know, this measure costs x billion dollars is set against such an unrealistic benchmark, it creates an expectation that, you know, that people would be able to just pull in this massive increase in revenue. So what I mean, what’s the alternative? We have no discount to for capital gains to reflect that that returns are impacted by inflation? We have no ability to offset losses against other income. I mean, these are non controversial measures in most tax systems. And they are they seem to be controversial here because we analyse them, at least in part, because we analyse the limits this unrealistic standard that says they cost way more than they actually do.

Gene Tunny  38:05

Yeah. Yeah. On the deduction of losses against you can deduct it from other, you know, reduce your taxable income, if you lose money on your rental property, which is what we call negative gearing. I mean, historically, they did try to get or get rid of negative gearing or let you only, like, reduce your rental income to zero. So sorry that they don’t. Well, yeah. So if you made a loss, you couldn’t then use that to reduce your other taxable income. So labour income, so you pay less tax, you could you could, you could effectively pay no tax on your rental income, but they wouldn’t let you get a benefit. Or the Yeah, so that’s, that’s the idea. But they did reduce, get rid of it in the 80s. And they’re all these headlines about, you know, as causing problems in the Sydney rental market. And as rents are going up, you can’t get a property with landlords were withdrawing. So I mean, my feeling is a chamas is probably bright enough not to go down that path. And he’s probably I think he’s still, you know, talks to Paul Keating regularly, so expect Keatings probably advising him on that not to go down that path. And

Simon Cowan  39:22

rents have been increasing ignore this too, right? Why would you take a chance on that? But I mean, just on the fundamental principle here, so if you want to quarry, see your income from property so that you can assess your losses are going steady income, that’s fine. Right. But what you can’t do or you shouldn’t be able to do then is assessed positive positively geared property on top of YG income. So right now, all of the if you may, if you’re if your property makes a A guy that is taxed at your full marginal rate. The converse of that is if you make a loss, then it’s deducted for your tax at your full marginal rate. Yeah, yeah, I’m okay. If you want to say, Well, look, you know, Rental property income should be quarantined. So you get a second, you know what, you get a tax free threshold and you pay when you might make $1,000 a month, you pay no tax on that. You want to do that? That’s fine. Right? I’m okay with that. What I’m not okay with is saying, on the one hand, if you make it gay, we’re going to tax that as much as we possibly can, on the other hand and make a loss, then you just got to you’ve got to eat. Right. I mean, that just seems like fundamentally unfair approach to it, where the government wins no matter what. And, you know, I’m not a big fan of the government winning no matter what.

Gene Tunny  40:54

Exactly. So yes. Yeah, there’s a Yeah. You know, it’s gonna heat up again, it is heating out that debate. And yet, I think the the, the logic behind what’s called negative gearing is is is lost, it’s absent from that debate, sadly, becomes, yeah, yeah.

Simon Cowan  41:12

And I mean, the Henry review, looked into this and proposed what seemed like a relatively good solution, because there is an issue with different types of saving being taxed different ways. So you know, there’s some things that are very incentivized, like, for example, owning your own home, there are some things that are strong, but not as strongly incentivized, like superannuation, and probably investing in, you know, in retail property. And there’s some things that are highly disincentivize, which is a lot of other types of savings. If you want to equalise a lot of that stuff in a way that reflected the, you know, some of the risk profiles on the longevity of holding those those instruments, that’d be fine. But that’s not the debate that we’re having. We’re not talking about having a coherent the fair tax system across the board. We’re just saying this one thing we cherry picked, this looks unfair to me, therefore, we should get rid of it.

Gene Tunny  42:13

Yeah, yeah. That’s the debate we’re having for sure. What about resources? Simon, have you thought about that? Because I mean, one of the things you often hear is ours, we haven’t, we’re letting these mining companies rip us off, and we’re not taxing them properly, or the the royalties aren’t high enough. We’re not taxing their super profits. And we’ve missed the opportunity that the Norwegian, you know, the Norwegian set up this huge sovereign wealth fund. That’s worth I don’t know, however many hundreds of 1000s of dollars for every Norwegian it’s, it is mind blowing. What do you think of that? The What do you think about resources, taxation? Have we missed an opportunity there?

Simon Cowan  42:51

So look, I’m very sceptical of anyone that says the word super profits, because I think super profits are defined as any amount of money that I think is big enough that I could take. So I don’t like that concept. I mean, I think he’s there an argument that the states have systemically underpriced the world is that they have charged in order to incentivize people to set up mining operations in their state, particularly up where you are. Yeah, I think that’s probably right. The states could have charged way more for their resources than they did. They chose not to do that. That’s a choice that they get to make. I’m you know, I’m, I’m sort of somewhat always it’s pause when I see a proposal that federal government take even more revenue from things that were traditionally revenue for the states. So, you know, I think if there’s an issue, we underpricing those royalties in the state, should we increase their royalties, and that would result in them having them having some more revenue that they could spend. And then I mean, when it comes to deductions, this idea that there are companies that are paying no tax, and therefore that’s unfair. So offsetting your tax liability against past losses, which is what’s happening with most of these 90 enterprises, is completely non controversial, and not a drama really, of any kind. So if your operation makes losses for 10 years while you are searching for mineral deposits, and then you eventually find one, you get to offset those 10 year losses against your first year of profits. And, you know, you have to tax a profit, not a loss. So that’s, that’s, you know, that’s, and that accounts for so much of these super profits that are being offshored or, you know, but people are worried about I mean, it’s just offsetting tax against previous losses. There is an issue around structuring global tax operations in a way that minimises your taxable liability. However, as Kerry Packer once famously said, you know, minimising your tax you’re, you’re an idiot, everyone minimises their tax. So, if the system is set up to allow people to minimise their tax, they will. There’s a lot of smart tax lawyers and accountants who can set things up in a way that minimises those, those taxes. And that’s being done completely legally. And if you want to change that more than then go ahead, but you’re going to struggle with the fact that you’ve got to force other countries to play ball with you on that score. And if you raise your domestic taxation of global companies too much, all disappear. Yeah, yeah,

Gene Tunny  45:42

that’s one of the concerns we’re having. I mean, I’m old. I’m all for making sure that these companies aren’t, you know, they’re not doing things that are sketchy. And they’re actually they are abiding by the law. And the Australian government has introduced measures to ensure that there’s work at OECD the BEPS initiative, whatever it is, I was just thinking about that point you make about discouraging investment and that yeah, that is a risk. And, you know, historically, we, like Queensland, for example, where I am, and you’re talking about Queensland. Yeah, I mean, the Treasury at the time, they probably did have they set really competitive royalty rates to attract the investment. And we were after the investment to develop these export industries, which have been usually beneficial economically for our region’s for the state budget. And that sounds like a good thing, doesn’t it? Yeah. Yeah, I’d say so too. And I guess we’ve had this competitive federalism. Yeah, yeah. And we’ve had this controversy recently, where the state treasurer, it was a bit of a surprise, Cameron dick, you know, introduced this more progressive royalty system for coal, and now we’ve got the highest royalty rates for coal in the world. And, you know, it was almost motivated by being a super profits tax. And now the the resources sector is saying, and BHP has come out and said, all this is, yeah, we’re not going to invest in in Queensland anymore. Other companies have said similar things. I’ll have to put some links in the show notes to make sure I get the details. Right. But then, you know, the government’s gonna go well, they would say that I mean, that’s, that’s, you know, that’s big mining. So, you know, when?

Simon Cowan  47:27

Yeah, and I mean, ultimately, right. Why? Because I’m a big believer in competitive federalism. Yeah. States have a right to run that experiment. Yeah. You think they would, they would just say that they do it. See what happens? Yeah, yeah. But where the consequences? Right. That’s, that’s the thing that annoys me a lot in the debates about state tax and issues with state state budget issues is the way that the GST distribution is set up, actually discourages states from taking those initiatives. Because if they do the right thing, and they create all of this additional growth, they lose sight of their GST distribution in effectively offset, you know, for for doing the right thing economically, you’re far better off to just as the West Australians did just take the aeroplane down the camera and say, please fill up my pipe with a lot of money, Mr. Prime Minister, because we have been unfairly denied our fair share of GST revenue. And you know, that without wanting to get to sort of jargony technical about it, that vertical fiscal imbalance between the states and the federal government causes a lot of efficiency issues, I think in the way that that that we deliver locally, our tax system and the way that we deliver our services. And so, you know, I’d be a big fan of fixing, like, if there was to be a large scale tax reform, aside from lowering the overall tax burden, the biggest thing we could do is shift a whole bunch of revenue options to the states, allow them to compete with each other for business and growth. But remove some of that vertical fiscal imbalance and stop the big ego. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  49:10

absolutely. Stop the blame game. Stop them. Yeah, saying, Oh, we don’t have the money. The federal government’s got all the money. Give us them all. Now. It’s

Simon Cowan  49:19

I mean, it’d be NFS across so many areas, right. Have a look at have a look at what it’s done to defence policy in the last 15 years. You know, that because of the South Australia invests money in the defence industry and the need for governments of both sides to buy votes, he said, Australia, there’s this constant pressure to spend defence procurement dollars in South Australia. And that result seems suboptimal procurement decisions all the time.

Gene Tunny  49:48

No doubt about that. Okay, we’ve we’ve had a wide ranging discussion about the Australian tax system. So I’m going to wrap up what are your what would be your broad parameters or broad themes or Have a genuine tax reform. Okay.

Simon Cowan  50:02

So I mean, I think the first thing that we should do is rely on the bracket played somewhere and say, this is going to be sure bracket great. If you want to increase taxes, you have got to get people to vote for it, not just have it happen automatically over over and over again. And then I would love for us to attempt to resolve some of the efficient taxes in economy, particularly some of those leftover state taxes that that were still around from the GST. switchbacking in 2000, I think there’s still some some sort of workers compensation insurance and other things at the state level that could be gotten real. You know, we always talked about the stamp duty for land tax, which I think there’s a, there’s a, there’s an issue with that. Overall, I’d love to see a lower company tax rates substantially, to attempt to increase business investment, need Australia, I’d be taking a company tax rate down to 20% or lower. And then I think we need before we were to do anything more substantive than that we need expenditure reform, so that we could go about reducing the tax burden substantially. And part of that, I mean, a big part of that, I think is getting in control of what’s happening in the IRS, and elsewhere. Reforming and sort of shifting the debate around things like education and health care away from how much money can I spend to what am I getting for, for my investment. And then also around, you know, around infrastructure, we spent so much money on infrastructure, that’s that’s just horribly inefficient, and poorly designed, managed and operated. And we could, because a lot of it sits off the budget. It’s not visible, but I’m sure that we could do things a lot better than we are right now.

Gene Tunny  51:58

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, we can certainly do things better than that snowy, 2.0 project where we’ve got a boring machine stuck in the tunnel. What an absolute debacle. Yeah. Well,

Simon Cowan  52:11

so you’ll be interested to know your listeners will be interested to know we’ve just stood up a programme on on energy. Yeah. And, you know, one of the big focuses of that programme is to bring some transparency to the investment decisions that are being made by GFI in the clean energy space. I a lot of climate change and climate change person by any means. But I’m a big believer in government, doing things in accordance with the rules and the principles, right. I don’t think you get to skirt the rules because of the desire to have a particular political outcome. I’m actually a lot of that tapping energy. So that’s a big deal for us. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  52:52

very good. Okay, Simon. Awesome. Thanks so much for your time. It’s been it’s been terrific good to catch up with a colleague and to chat about the big issues of the day. So, Sharif, thanks again. Thanks, buddy. Appreciate. Right. Oh, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com, or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

53:54

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Revisiting Ricardo: The Rise and Fall of Ricardian Equivalence

This episode of Economics Explored explores the theory of Ricardian equivalence, a proposition that fiscal policy measures like tax cuts or stimulus payments may not effectively boost the economy if households anticipate higher future taxes to pay off government debt. Host Gene Tunny explains the concept originating from David Ricardo and popularized by Robert Barro, involving ultra-rational consumer optimization over infinite time horizons. While an elegant theoretical model, Ricardian equivalence relies on unrealistic assumptions and fails empirical tests. Evidence shows households do increase spending after rebates or transfers, although not always by as much as policy makers would like. Ultimately, while the merits of discretionary fiscal policy are debatable, Ricardian equivalence is too extreme a hypothesis. Households do not behave as ultra-rational dynamic optimizing models predict.

Please get in touch with us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google Podcasts, Apple Podcast and Spotify.

Takeaways

Five takeaways from this episode are:

1. Ricardian equivalence is an elegant theoretical model but relies on unrealistic assumptions about rational consumer behavior.

2. Empirical evidence overwhelmingly finds that households do increase spending after tax rebates or fiscal stimulus, contrary to Ricardian equivalence predictions.

3. Related concepts like Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis are more nuanced but also face limitations in fully explaining consumer decisions.

4. While fiscal policy faces challenges, Ricardian equivalence is not a compelling argument against its effectiveness due to failures of the underlying theory.

5. Examining economic models against real-world evidence is important for evaluating their validity and implications for policy.

Timestamps

  • Introduction. (0:00)
  • David Ricardo’s economic theories and their relevance today. (5:30)
  • Ricardian equivalence in macroeconomics. (11:02)
  • Consumption function and fiscal policy. (17:48)
  • Rational economic models and their implications. (23:18)
  • Ricardian equivalence theory and its limitations. (26:41)
  • Ricardian equivalence theory and its empirical support. (33:59)
  • Consumer spending after receiving tax rebates. (39:10)
  • Ricardian equivalence in economics. (43:55)

Links

Previous episode in which Ricardian Equivalence was mentioned:

https://economicsexplored.com/2024/01/11/the-limits-of-fiscal-policy-insights-from-tony-makin-alex-robson-others-ep222

Robert Barro’s 1974 article “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”

https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/course131/Barro74JPE.pdf

James M. Buchanan on “Barro on the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem”

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/260436

Geoffrey Brennan and James M. Buchanan on “The Logic of the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem”

https://www.jstor.org/stable/40911555

John J. Seater on “Ricardian Equivalence”

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2728152

T. D. Stanley on “New Wine in Old Bottles: A Meta-Analysis of Ricardian Equivalence”

https://www.jstor.org/stable/1060788

Economist 2008 column “Ricardian equivalence is dead”

https://www.economist.com/free-exchange/2008/05/19/ricardian-equivalence-is-dead

Anrdrew Leigh’s paper “How Much Did the 2009 Australian Fiscal Stimulus Boost Demand? Evidence from Household-Reported Spending Effects”

http://andrewleigh.org/pdf/FiscalStimulus.pdf

Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel B. Slemrod’s study “Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?”

https://www.nber.org/papers/w14753

Claudia R. Sahm, Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod’s analysis “Check in the Mail or More in the Paycheck: Does the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Depend on How It Is Delivered?” 

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.4.3.216

Ikuo Saito’s paper “Fading Ricardian Equivalence in Ageing Japan”

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Fading-Ricardian-Equivalence-in-Ageing-Japan-44302

Transcript: Revisiting Ricardo: The Rise and Fall of Ricardian Equivalence

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gene Tunny  00:03

His argument was that all you’ve got to think about whether that be increase in income in the current period is a permanent increase or not. Because if it’s only a temporary increase, it doesn’t increase what they can spend sustainably over the long term buy much at all. Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Thanks for tuning into the show. This week. I’d like to discuss what economists call Ricardian equivalence. You may recall that this concept was mentioned in the episode on the limits of fiscal policy earlier this year, and I’m going to be exploring it more this episode with my colleague, Arturo Arturo Espinosa, welcome to the programme. Thanks,

Arturo Espinoza Bocangel  01:21

Ian. I’m glad to be here. Excellent. So

Gene Tunny  01:24

yes, looking forward to chatting with you about Ricardian equivalence. Now this came up in a conversation I had with Tony maker. Well, I was replaying a previous conversation with Tony Mike and Tony is sadly, no longer with us. But in the conversation I had with Tony this, this idea of Ricardian equivalence came up. It’s one of those objections to fiscal policy as a way of influencing the business cycle as a macro economic stabilisation tool. And it’s a rather elaborate theoretical objection to fiscal policy. And result, it’s all very elegant. And I thought it’d be nice to go over it and explore it, because it does raise some important issues about how we think about the economy, how we model the economy. So if you’re happy to do that, I think that would be good. And if you’ve heard of this concept before, have you Arturo.

Arturo Espinoza Bocangel  02:30

Jaya during my time, so the students at uni, but I don’t remember very clear. So this is a good opportunity to refresh my memories.

Gene Tunny  02:43

Oh, good. Well, yeah. So hopefully, I can give a clear explanation. That yeah, so in we’ve been doing some, some reading. So to get across it, and to remind ourselves what it is because I must say it’s a proposition that was very popular when I was studying economics in the early 90s, early to mid 90s, when I started, because there was still some belief in this as an idea. This is a concept. But I think since then, we’ve probably figured out that maybe there’s really no, you know, not a lot of evidence to support it. So that’s something we’ll we’ll go over. The idea is that a fiscal stimulus, if it’s in the form of a tax cut, or a transfer to to households, if it’s a matter of cutting taxes, giving money to to households, the idea is that those households, or businesses, they will realise that in the future, the government has to, you know, pay, if they if the government’s borrowed money to finance this, then those households will have to pay higher taxes and otherwise, so that’s, that’s the idea. And that, and that, therefore, in the current period, they won’t spend that tax cut or that transfer that stimulus money, they will save it instead. So there’s that. That idea. And so it’s an argument as to why fiscal policy discretionary fiscal policy or fiscal stimulus may not be effective, because Okay, people will realise that the government is just borrowing this money, they’re taking on more debt, where the taxpayers we ultimately have to pay back that debt. And so we’re not any wealthier. That’s essentially the idea. And it’s, it’s based on households been forward looking about having this view into the future that we know we’re gonna have to eventually pay it back or our descendants will have to pay it back, our children, our grandchildren, and we have a we’re eltra not altruistic we what’s the word we we value the lives of our children out, we love our children, we, we, we want to, we want what’s best for them. So we’re not going to take on all this debt now and have, you know, live beyond our means so to speak and burden the future. So that’s, that’s the idea. Broadly speaking, I will try and define that more precisely, but that’s how I think of Ricardian equivalence is. Am I on the right track there,

Arturo Espinoza Bocangel  05:26

Arturo? Yes. That inclination was very clear again. Okay, good. Good. So

Gene Tunny  05:31

there are two things here. One is, is Ricardian so it’s named after David Ricardo, the famous economist. And then we’ll go into what’s equivalent. A bit later, we might talk about Ricardo to begin with. So David Ricardo, so his dates 18th 18th of April 1772 to 11th of September 18 23. So he lived. He lived through the age of wonder, whatever you however you want to describe it. So he was born just two years after Captain Cook discovered Australia for ice and, and he died in 1823. So he lived through the Napoleonic Wars. He was a British political economist, they call them in those days politician and Member of Parliament of Great Britain and Ireland’s This is from Wikipedia. recognised as one of the most influential economists, one of the most influential classical economists alongside figures such as Thomas Malthus, Adam Smith, and James Mills, so very esteemed company. Now, one of the one of my favourite descriptions of Ricardo comes from John Kenneth Galbraith, who was the American economist, professor at Harvard. He was an advisor to Jack Kennedy, he was Kennedy’s Ambassador to India. And Galbraith wrote this great book, The Age of uncertainty on, you know, history of economics, economic history, essentially. And this is quite a great description. Ricardo is Smith’s only serious contender for the title of founding father of economics. With him the great ethnic rivals of the Scotch arrive. Ricardo was Jewish. He was a stockbroker, a member of parliament, a man of superb clarity of mind and terrible obscurity of for this. That’s classic Galbraith. I mean, I don’t think anyone could write as well as Galbraith. He was it was a brilliant writer. So yeah, I mean, any, any economist relative to Galbraith? Probably, maybe we could be accused of obscurity of pros. Okay, so Ricardo, very famous, he wrote, was it Principles of Political Economy? I should know that off the top of my head, but he wrote a, he wrote several important works on in economics and his main claim to fame is the theory of international trade, isn’t it? It’s comparative advantage. And so this is this proposition that, like, we can talk about this in another episode, but essentially, David Ricardo demonstrated conclusively in a logical sense, why free trade is can benefit both parties. Why? Why countries can gain from trade from specialising in? Yes. Yep, and trading so of course, so specialising according to the comparative advantage of the country. And yeah, that’s something that you know, that’s a very, there’s a subtle definition of what comparative advantage is that we might go into in another in another episode, but it’s a very important theory in economics. Yeah,

Arturo Espinoza Bocangel  08:45

of course, I like to add some important information about this Ricardian model, tre, international trade causes in most of the International Trade courts around the world. The first model that is used in order to explain the patterns of trade is Ricardian model. It’s what that as you mentioned, basically is playing that country is specialised in in producing and exporting food that has a comparative advantage relative to other countries.

Gene Tunny  09:19

And is that based on the factor endowments what? What are the Allen’s please?

Arturo Espinoza Bocangel  09:25

The main reason is the level of productivity

Gene Tunny  09:30

level of productivity except Brian okay, we might go into that in another episode, but I guess the, like Australia, for example. I mean, a lot of people criticise Australia and say Australia is not a very complex economy. You’re just digging stuff out of the ground and exporting it or growing weed and exporting that. But I mean, we’re very good at that. Right? We’re very good at mining. We’re very productive in mining, and we’ve got great, great minerals, lots of valuable iron ore and and and coal coking coal in particular, which is very valuable. And so yeah, it makes sense for us to co produce and export that stuff. So yeah, we might well have to go into that Ricardian model of trade in, in the future. So the main point is that your Ricardo was a really big deal in economics. He essentially made the case for free trade. He argued against what was called mercantilism, which is the idea that countries become wealthy by exporting by having a trade surplus and bringing gold into the country accumulating gold in the reserves of gold. So that’s, he argued against that. He said, Well, that’s not necessarily the way to think about economic prosperity. So not exactly what we’re gonna talk about today. But it’s important to know Ricardo was very important in in that in international trade theory. Now, why is this relevant? What did Ricardo have to say about fiscal policy? Well, I mean, he wasn’t really a theorist of of, Oh, it wasn’t a macro. Well, I he’s a classical economist. So I suppose they did deal with that we’re thinking about the economy as a whole. But he’s not a macro economist, as we’d probably think of one today. But nonetheless, he did it, he did have this, he ran a thought experiment, you could call it or maybe you could say it was a bit of a thought bubble, but But he had this idea that of this equivalence between taxation and debt financing. So the Ricardian equivalence relates to the idea that if you think about this, in a particular type of framework, and you think about how these households eventually have to pay back the debt, so if you’ve got a choice between financing, spending, or financing, a particular like a surge in spending, because it’s a pandemic, for example, or a war, and it’s a choice between increasing taxes, or increasing, or borrowing the money in terms of how what happens to households, and you know, how they change their consumption, spending their behaviour, in this really theoretical framework, and under certain strong assumptions, which we’ll talk about soon, it could be the case that they just behave the same way that Yep, they might have to pay if they pay more taxes, and that lowers their disposable income, and then that may force them to, you know, that maybe they will cut back their consumption spending, they won’t spend as much. But then if the government goes and borrows money, then it may be that the households do the same thing, because they realise that, oh, hang on, we’ve got to pay for this in the future, eventually. So it’s as if let’s act now let’s spend less now let’s save more in anticipation of those higher taxes later on, because we have to pay the debt. So it’s this idea of this equivalence between taxation and debt finance, and I guess, this is where we start thinking, Well, hang on. That’s, that may not actually be what happens in reality. And indeed, Ricardo himself thought this was I think he thought he, he thought this was implausible, really, or he didn’t put a lot of he didn’t really, you know, make a huge thing about this is just a, you know, an idea he had just a speculation of his so I think that’s, it’s it’s certainly an interesting speculation to think about, like, how do households react to what the government does? And, you know, to what extent are they forward looking? To what extent are they Ultra rational, where this where this Ricardian equivalence thing, where it came from, or what where it was brought back into economics, or how it was brought back in economics was there was this school of thought that emerged in the late 60s and then in the 70s, called the New classical school of macro economics, which was trying to make macro economics more rigorous built, create micro economic foundations for it, because there was this view that what Keynes was talking about in the 30s. Okay, he, he didn’t really have really strong micro economic foundations or there was an optimising behaviour in it. There were a lot of us assumptions about how these macroeconomic aggregates such as consumption and income, were related to each other. But you weren’t really thinking about, well, how would rational households behave? So they, they had there was this idea that we want to have a more rigorous economics, that macro economics and it’s based on optimising models and, and one of the driving forces is the mathematization of economics in the post war period, from after Paul Samuelson foundations of economic analysis famous textbook in the in the 40s, where he brought mathematics to a lot of economics. And then the idea is let’s bring that to macro economics as well. Let’s have these really elegant optimization models and you know, Ricardian equivalence is is one of those types of models. Okay, how am I going to Euro? Very good. Okay. Okay. It’s a, it is a tricky sort of area to tricky concept to explain, I think. And having begun this conversation, I’m thinking okay, I’ll have to, maybe I’ll go and refresh my knowledge afterwards. But I hope that I am imparting enough of the substance of it. Okay, so who’s the big name associated with this proposition? Is Robert Barro, isn’t it? So? Okay, so Robert Barrow is one of the most famous economists of, say, the last 50 years or so. He’s probably the most famous economist out there at the moment who hasn’t won a Nobel Prize? I mean, who knows? It may be coming. But he hasn’t won one yet. At least as far as I’m aware, he hasn’t won the Nobel Prizes. He I probably would have put that down in the show in the notes. If he had. Okay, if he has I’ll, I’ll definitely double check that but I’m pretty sure he hasn’t Paul Lucas. Sorry, not Paul Lucas. Robert Lucas. won the Nobel Prize for new classical economics Thomas saj. And I’m pretty sure Robert Barro hasn’t won it. He’s currently the Paul M. Warburg professor of economics at Harvard. And he’s, you know, as a visiting scholar at American Enterprise Institute, research associate of National Bureau of Economic Research, PhD in, in economics from Harvard and a Bachelor of Science in physics from Caltech. I think it was a student of Richard Feynman, I think I read that. And he went into economics was he, he realised that, you know, physics was something he might not, you know, rise to the top in. He thought our economics is probably a better bit. Physics is too crowded. There are too many, you know, really, really smart people in physics. And they thought, Well, why not? Economics? That could be something different. But yeah, Barrow, right, this very famous article in the 1980s 1974, published in the the house journal of the University of Chicago economic School, which is the Journal of Political Economy, and his article is our government bonds, net wealth, and extremely clever paper, I’ll put a link in the show notes. But yeah, the basic idea there is that, if you think about it, in a particular type of model that was popular in the post war period, a particular way of thinking about macro economics, and less government bonds were was seen as something that made the community wealthier on their own, then they shouldn’t have a significant or they shouldn’t have an impact on consumption spending, because they shouldn’t make the community feel any wealthier, at least, that’s the that’s the idea. And his argument was that, well, if households realise that they actually are the ones who have to service that debt and pay back the debt, eventually as taxpayers, then they’re not any wealthier. So they’re not going to, you know, lift their level of consumption spending, if the government gives them a tax cut or transfers some money to them. So that’s the that’s the basic idea. Now, an a related concept, and I have been struggling to think about how to bring this into the conversation because it is related to it in a way that comes at this issue from in a different way. There’s the there’s Milton Friedman’s idea of the permanent income hypothesis. And, like one way of looking at fiscal policy if you’re thinking about a tax cut or a stimulus check, for example, Apple. And this is another way of thinking about this same question using a different model or a different, slightly different theoretical framework. And this was an objection to some of the the temporary, you know, bonuses or the temporary tax cuts or stimulus money that we’ve seen in different crises, like Milton Friedman argue that your consumption spending is related to your permanent income, which is essentially what you could, what you could spend out of your, out of your wealth sustainably over the long term. So if I’m getting that, right, so. So Keynes is consumption function related, corroding, current income to cut related your consumption spending to your current income. So if your B income is, say, say it’s, you know, $5,000 or something, and there’s an increase in your income of $1,000. And then Keynes would have this coefficient, the marginal propensity to consume and say, That’s point eight, then there’s this mechanical relationship of income goes up by 1000 times point eight, then your spending will go up. $800. So that’s the, that’s the Keynesian consumption function. And Friedman objected to that, because his argument was that, well, you’ve got to, you’ve got to think about whether that increase in income in the current period is a permanent increase or not. Because if it’s only a temporary increase, but doesn’t increase what they consider spend sustainably over the long term, by much at all, and his argument is that households would try to smooth out their consumption. Over time, there’s this idea that we’re better off if we have a more steady, sustainable standard of living, rather than having some periods where we’re spending more and living, living really well than other periods where we’re not living great at all. We’re on hard times, we’d be better off in his optimising model and his rational optimising model, we’d be better off saving those temporary windfalls and income, and you’re saving them up for times where we had less income, and so smoothing our consumption in that way. And so that’s an argument against fiscal stimulus, because you could, it could be the case that people get their tax cut, or their stimulus check. And they realise, well, hang on, it’s not really making us is not really lifting our permanent income, which is not going to make us you know, make us huge impact on our on our, you know, average income over the next five or 10 years. So why should we spend it baby, let’s say that, and we can use it to help smooth out income, it can cover those difficult periods. So that’s another example of an optimising model. And it’s a similar type of philosophy to Ricardian equivalence, but it’s not. It’s not quite the same thing because Barrows proposition is stronger than that. And because in Friedman’s model, it’s possible that if if the government’s transfer enough money to households, then they might think that Well, yeah, we are wealthier. It is, it will, this level of additional money will allow us to spend much more sustainably into the future. But Barrow goes further than Friedman, because in Barrows model, those households would realise that they would eventually have to pay back that money through the tax system. So that ultimately not any wealthier. So there’s, there’s probably a higher level of rationality in Barrows model, then, then Friedman’s model that Fred’s Friedman’s model gets you sort of the, you know, partly the way there because you’re starting to think about the future and households are starting to think rationally. What’s coming up in the future? Does that make sense? Or am I complicating things?

Arturo Espinoza Bocangel  24:31

I think I’m Porton assumption for the neoclassical economists here. Yeah. Individuals are acting as a rational. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  24:41

they’re rational and forward looking. Yeah. And so in Friedman’s model, then Friedman gets us a lot of the way there with this permanent income model. And then Barrow basically goes even further and says that households are so smart that they realise that any money that the government is is giving you temporary? Well, that it’s actually giving you through a tax cut or through a stimulus check. You’re gonna have to pay that back later. So you’re not any wealthier overall. And so there’s there’s there’s no increase in permanent income in in that situation. And yeah, there’d be no change. Whereas in the Friedman model, there’s a possibility maybe there is a small, a small impact on consumption if I think about that. Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  25:37

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Gene Tunny  26:06

Now back to the show. Yeah, these ultra rational models, Friedman sort of started the this is an idea and then the new classical economists took it to the limit. Okay, so that was that was Barrow a very, very famous paper and generated a huge literature, people arguing about this theoretically. And then there was a lot of empirical work which we might go into. One point I should make at the moment is that when Barrow first wrote this paper, it wasn’t called Ricardian equivalence Barrow, himself didn’t realise that, that he was almost channelling Ricardo in a way. But this was pointed out by James Buchanan, who was a Nobel Prize winner for his work in public choice theory, what was called public what’s called Public Choice Theory. And he was at Virginia Polytechnic Institute at the time, I think that’s now George Mason University. Or I could have that wrong. But anyway, James Buchanan. He wrote a famous article in 1976, which pointed out that essentially what what Robert Barrow had done was rediscovered this proposition of David Ricardo and I might read this abstract because it’s very, it’s quite, quite succinct. So James Buchanan wrote his public debt issue equivalent to taxation. This is an age old question in public finance theory. David Ricardo presented the case for the affirmative. Professor Robert J. Barrow re examines this question in his recent paper, without however making reference to Ricardo or other earlier contributors, although his discussion has carefully qualified to allow for exceptions under specified conditions, the thrust of Barrows arguments supports the Ricardian theorem to the effect that taxation and public debt issue exert basically equivalent effects. So I think, yeah, my it’s interesting be cannon makes the point that David Ricardo presented the case for the affirmative, because my understanding was that even though Ricardo did make that, or he did make the case, he didn’t think that it was something that was realistic, in that it didn’t apply in reality, I think might have been Galbraith or someone like that, who made that point that even though no Ricardo wrote about this in the funding system, he himself thought it was a bit of a theoretical curiosity. Okay, and one thing you found so this is another article by Buchanan you dug this up before, Arturo? Because you didn’t I think this goes to this is related this point I was making about how this is a very elegant theoretical model is based on optimising behaviour forward looking rational. Now, let’s make the most elegant mathematically. What’s the word? Elegant, I suppose or logical model where you’ve got people maximising their their utility, what economists call utility, their satisfaction, and they recognise that they’re there ultimately, they ultimately have to pay the debt. So yeah, Buchanan and Jeffrey Brennan. So Jeffrey Brennan’s an Australian, he was at ASU and his son Michael Brennan actually runs the ball. He did run the Productivity Commission here. Now he’s running the e 61. Institute. Interesting. Yeah, yeah. And he was a senior person in the treasury after I was there, but he is all very good. Jeffrey Brennan, I remember did a staring rendition of Rule Britannia at tattersalls Club at a dinner, I went to law school dinner I went to, but 20 years ago, it was a, it was a good thing. It was a great singer and a very intelligent man. Very good economist. Okay. Now, that all of course is completely irrelevant to the point, the logic of the Ricardian equivalence theorem by Jeffrey Brennan and James Buchanan, which was published in was it finance archive? I think it was, yeah, the German public finance journal. And they, they list these very well, you’d say they’re restrictive conditions, aren’t they for, for this whole this theoretical approach this model applying, and I might put them in the show notes. But essentially, they make some very strong assumptions about how, you know, well, one is that capital markets are perfect individuals may borrow and lend at the same rate as the government. And I think what this is getting to is the fact that look, even if ourselves are rational and forward looking, they may not be able to act in such a way because they’re not able to easily borrow that you can’t borrow as much as you’d like to help smooth your consumption over time to. So it could be the case that if the government gives you a tax card, and or gives you a stimulus check, you may really need that money. In a in a theoretical, in an idealised world, you could have just been temporarily on hard times, and in that idealised world you could have borrowed against your future income, because you know, I’m gonna get out of this in the future. So rather than struggling now, and you know, me struggling to pay rent or buy the groceries, I’ll just borrow against my future income. But that doesn’t mean you can’t always do that in the real world. I mean, people do sort of, you know, some people try and do that through credit cards. But that’s a recipe for financial disaster in the long run. So it may be that, you know, fiscal, fiscal policy measures, such as a tax cut, or a stimulus check, has an impact because it helps alleviate a liquidity constraint. So there’s this concept of liquidity constraints. And that was one of the major objections to well, this whole new classical approach, and also to well to Friedman’s model, in a way, yes, definitely the Freedmen’s model, that, you know, one of the things that stops people from acting, as optimising over time rational households is the fact that you you may not be able to borrow the money that would be compatible with that optimization. So that’s that point. And then there’s some other points about how assumptions that that’d be Canada and Brandon, identify individuals are certain as to both current and future income and prospects. Which is, yeah, I mean, people, you know, so any theory about where people are optimising the future and making optimal decisions? Essentially, you have to assume that they know how the future is going to evolve. And it may be that they, they don’t. And so it could be that, you know, people’s, well, in the Ricardian model, it could be the case that, well, they see the government borrowing this money to give them a tax card or pay them a stimulus check. But in their own mind, they’re thinking, Well, I’m going to be wealthier in the future anyway, I’m going to be earning a higher income, so I don’t really care as much. Maybe I have to pay a little bit more tax, but but who cares? So they in that model? Yeah, there’s the Ricardian model essentially, assumes that they have this perfect foresight. Number five individuals, as current taxpayers and as potential future taxpayers behave in terms of infinite planning horizons, they act as a mortals Yep. So they either act as a mortals. Yeah. Okay. So what’s that, assuming that’s assuming that they care for their descendants? Basically, as if they’re just future versions of themselves at a later date in the future? It’s essentially you like your children, your grandchildren are essentially just you at a future date. And so that’s, that’s a very strong assumption. I mean, and it may be the case that, look, you know, one generation may be perfectly happy, running up a bill for future generations to buy. I mean, not that I’m saying that necessarily doing that, but, you know, it’s not necessarily the case that people are acting as a mortals I mean, just think about I mean, there are plenty without children, they may not have any connection. They may not feel any connection with sex with future generations. Right? So it’s a pretty, it’s a very strong assumption now that there were there were seven of those assumptions. I haven’t read them all out. But I’ll put them in the show notes. And you can check that out that the main point is that look, there’s there’s just very stringent conditions for this Ricardian equivalence to hold that, in reality, it’s probably not going to hold and therefore this objection to fiscal policy, this idea that households are going to just save any additional money the government gives them, it doesn’t seem to be, you know, supported when you think about it logically. Maybe in an elegant theoretical model, but not in reality with how people behave and what will go on to now as the evidence and my reading of the evidence is that it doesn’t support this hypothesis. Okay, any other points on the theory there, Arturo? No, I feel I’m gonna have to write this up. In an article just because I think that link, yeah, I want to explain how this model fits with these other models such as Friedman’s permanent income, because I think that’s a that’s an important question. Okay. What does the evidence say? Now, this is really interesting, because if you look at the earliest empirical studies after Barrows model came out, there were studies that were essentially finding support for it. But then later on, economists changed their mind as more evidence accumulated. Then when it first emerged, it was it was a popular proposition and there was a 1993 Journal of Economic Literature review paper Ricardian equivalence by John cedar, and he’s at North Carolina, North Carolina State University. So Journal of Economic Literature is the one of the leading journals published by the American Economic Association. The idea is to have authoritative literature reviews that summarise the current state of the economic literature on important questions. And his conclusion was that although tests of Ricardian equivalence do not quite give an unambiguous verdict on that propositions validity, I think it is reasonable to conclude that Ricardian equivalence is strongly supported by the data. Now, you know, I wasn’t a practising economist at that time, that was my first year at uni. And, but I do imagine that that would have been a controversial conclusion. And it’s definitely been reversed since then. So in 1998, there was a meta analysis. So this is a study of studies where you look at what Previous studies have found, ideally, if you can get hold of their data, you try and rerun all the, you know, try and pull all the data together, run a big regression that don’t always do that. But you’d at least look at each of the studies and try to work out well which is more authoritative, which has a better methodology, which is using better data, that sort of thing and come to a judgement as to where does the where does the weight of the evidence why and in the conclusion in that paper, is it by by a TD Stanley at Hendricks College in Arkansas, published in southern economic journal new wine in old bottles, the meta analysis of Ricardian equivalence and that concluded that a quantitative review or meta analysis of 28 empirical studies of the Ricardian equivalence theorem gives persuasive testament of its falsity, which is, you know, pretty much what I would I would have expected given that just how really outlandish the theoretical assumptions behind the model are when you think about it, and just think, just use common sense and and look at it if anything would have killed off the Ricardian equivalence theorem. It would have been evidence from the financial crisis and then the pandemic since then, the the free exchange column in The Economist may 19 2008. So this is prior to the the the financial crisis, but there was a looks like there was a tax rebate. There was a 2001 tax rebate in the US and then there was another one, maybe it was 2007. I’ll have to put that in the show notes. But they were looking at how consumers were spending their rebates. And this is the calmness in The Economist, so the authoritative magazine published in London, they wrote, I tend to be wary of the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus, though at least anecdotally, the current stimulus seems to be working theoretically, people should not increase consumption in response to a small temporary increase in income unless they face liquidity constraints. Or taxpayers might recognise that rebates increase the size of the budget deficit, if there is no corresponding decrease in government spending, that their future taxes will pay, okay? So they might recognise that rebates increase the deficit. And that means I’ll have to pay higher taxes in the future. But these factors suggest most of the rebate will be saved and not spent, perhaps consumers do consider these factors and plan on saving their rebates. But then what he does is he quotes evidence, or this colonists quotes evidence from Matthew Shapiro and Joel Slemrod. So well known us economists. Okay, so at the time of the rebate, when they got it in 2001, only 22% of respondents planned on spending it. Although they found little evidence, people factor government spending, ie future deficits into their decision. Okay, so that’s what they were thinking about at the time. But then, there’s a study by David Johnson, Jonathan Parker, and Nicholas Sulukule, that, that they actually spent a significant amount of it or a non trivial amount of it, they found that the average household spent 20 to 40% of their rebate within three months of receiving it. And two thirds of the rebate was spent within a quarter of receipt, lower income groups spend a large fraction of their rebate, I’ll put a link to that in the show notes as there’s a bit going on there. There’s quite a few different points there. The basic point is that people do spend more of a rebate, a tax rebate, they get that you might then these models, you know whether it’s permanent income hypothesis of Friedman or in the extreme the barrow, Ricardian equivalence, people do spend more than you might, then these models would predict. And this was also concluded by Andrew Lee, who’s a federal MP here in Australia, who is a professor of economics today, I knew how much did the 2009 Australian fiscal stimulus, boost demand evidence from household reported spending effects, he used some survey evidence. And he looked at the $21 billion in household payments delivered in Australia between December oh eight and may 2009. So he’s talking about the Rudd stimulus money. So the Rudd Government stimulus packages and 40% of households. So this is what Andrew found 40% of households who said they received a payment reported having spent it and you know, that’s a higher rate than in, in the US. And Andrew speculated that it could have been because of the form of the of the assistance, it was a it was a stimulus check, rather than a rebate of tax. And so Andrew was saying there could be something psychological going on there, you know, individuals are more likely to, to spend bonuses, so to speak, rather than, than rebates. But yeah, so Andrew does, essentially concluded that there’s this marginal propensity to consume out of these rebates, or this, you know, the stimulus money, I mean, of point four, one 2.42. So, that was spending around, you know, that two out of every $5 that they got so so they get this money, and they do actually spend a portion of it, it’s not as if they just leave it in the bank and, you know, maintain just just been what they normally would wait to wait to actually use some of it to go and maybe at the time, people were saying they were going to buy a flat screen TVs, that was the popular thing at the time to buy. But, yeah, definitely, there was more spending than then would have been expected. Right. I mean, the debate does go on. There have been some findings supportive of Ricardian equivalence, I should know there was a study by a former Treasury colleague of mine, Shane brittle, who, unfortunately is no longer with us. He was at University of Wollongong and I think he, this was a study published in the Australian Economic Review. He found some Ricardian impact but he couldn’t accept or he didn’t find in favour of full Ricardian equivalence. He did. He studied the macro data and his macro modelling suggested that over the long run changes in general government savings are offset by changes in private savings by almost a half minus point four, four. This implies that the behavioural response of households and corporations is not fully Ricardian. Well, I think that’s that’s right. So yeah, there’s definitely not full Ricardian equivalence. Could it be that maybe households there could be some Ricardian equivalence I don’t know, maybe, maybe, maybe households do realise that the eventually they might have to pay more in taxes. But maybe the reason that they’re saving part of it is this, this Friedman argument of permanent income, they realised that it hasn’t really allowed them to lift their consumption on a sustainable basis by much at all. And so therefore, let’s not spend too much of it. Now. Let’s save up the bulk of it. So look, whether what Shane’s found is regarding whether what whether he found some partial support for Ricardian equivalence, I think that’s that’s up for debate. My personal view is that it’s just such an extreme hypothesis. It’s yeah, it’d be it’d be hard to find any support for for it at all. This is not to say that discretionary fiscal policy is sensible. I think there are, there are plenty of arguments against fiscal stimulus discretionary fiscal policy that don’t require Ricardian equivalence what Tony makin was talking about with crowding out via interest rates via the exchange rate, all of the lags that that occur from when you recognise a shock in the economy to when the fiscal policy might actually impact. I think these are all valid reasons to question discretionary fiscal policy, but Ricardian equivalence probably isn’t one of those. Okay, Arturo, I think that’s that’s probably enough. I was going to talk about Japan, but I just don’t think Japan provides support for it either. There was initially a thought that maybe Japan’s The Ricardian case, because there was, you know, there was a lot of fiscal stimulus in the 90s. And it didn’t revive the economy. But, you know, Japan’s got Japan’s really, you know, it’s a bit of a special case. And I mean, we might go into it in another, another episode, but there are a lot of economic challenges there. And now they got the demographic challenge shrinking population. They had, you know, very, very high saving rate. Yeah, it’s a it’s a, it’s a different economy than ours in a way and, yeah, I mean, the conclusion is that it’s not really an example of Ricardian equivalence. And if it were, it’s becoming less Ricardian, there was a an IMF paper I’ll link to in the show notes that argues that it’s if it was recorded, and it’s becoming less so over time. But yeah, I think we might just leave that. Possibly I’ll do a bonus episode on Japan. But my feeling is that there’s just so much evidence against Ricardian equivalence, theoretically, it doesn’t. It’s just too strong. I mean, it’s very elegant model. It’s beautiful model. But the real world people just don’t behave as they do in elegant. optimising economic models. Maybe I have to follow this up with an article but hopefully I’ve got the main points across so anything you’d like to add?

Arturo Espinoza Bocangel  48:05

Well, in will basically, just to summarise so these recurrent colons, as you mentioned, was very formal model, I think is good for the students, academics, researchers, just to check that our current political evidence is can be cross check against the this model. So I think is supposed to want to explain these concepts, and also using data from different countries.

Gene Tunny  48:48

Yeah, yeah, exactly. Okay. So yeah, I think looking at different countries is important. Which is why and if you’re in the audience, you think it’d be good to look at Japan? Because, I mean, Japan was certainly one of the countries I was, when I first started studying economics. That was one of the countries I was interested in. Because it was just after the bubble burst. I mean, there was that. Well, what was it this square kilometre around the Imperial Palace was worth more than all the land in Manhattan or something, something along those lines, there was some crazy statistic about how much the Japanese property market was worth and Japan was just riding high in the late you know, in the 80s. And and they’re all these concerns are the Japan’s going to overtake the US and then they had the crash and the bubble burst and there’s all the talk about trying to revive it through fiscal policy through infrastructure spending, and it just didn’t just didn’t revive the economy and they had their last decade. But if you’re interested in hearing more about Japan, I can certainly cover that in a in a future episode and try to find someone who’s, you know, knowledgeable about Japan. If you know anyone, let me know. Okay, how to Thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed chatting about Ricardian equivalence with you. Oh,

Arturo Espinoza Bocangel  50:04

thank you for having me again.

Gene Tunny  50:06

Very good rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and later writing. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

50:55

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Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

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From Jekyll to Hyde: Exploring the Dual Nature of Finance | The Bankers’ Club w/ Prof. Gerald Epstein  – EP226

Show host Gene Tunny interviews UMass Amherst Professor Gerald Epstein about his new book “Busting the Bankers’ Club”, which is about the powerful influence of banks in politics and regulation. Epstein argues the bankers’ club maintains control through political allies and regulators. The conversation also covers financial deregulation, insufficient Dodd-Frank reforms, Quantitative Easing impacts, and alternatives like public banking and non-profit financial institutions.

Please get in touch with us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google Podcasts, Apple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest Prof. Gerald Epstein

Gerald Epstein received his Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University, is a professor of economics, and is a founding co-director of the Political Economy Research Institute (PERI) at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. He has published widely on various economic policy issues, especially in central banking and international finance. His most recent book, Busting the Bankers’ Club: Finance for the Rest of Us, was forthcoming in January 2024 from the University of California Press. 

What’s covered in EP226

  • Banking industry’s influence in politics and regulation. (0:04)
  • Financial deregulation and its impact on the economy. (8:58)
  • Financial system’s impact on democracy and fairness. (13:24)
  • Financial system issues and regulation. (16:24)
  • Economic policy after the financial crisis, including impacts of Quantitative Easing. (22:50)
  • Financial regulation and publicly owned institutions. (28:08)
  • Public banking, crypto, and risk-taking in finance. (33:30)

Takeaways

Professor Epstein argues in this episode:

  1. The “bankers’ club” of allies including politicians, central banks, and economists helps sustain the power and influence of large banks.
  2. Financial deregulation in the US and weak Dodd Frank reforms failed to address issues like too-big-to-fail banks and accountability.
  3. Quantitative easing policies after the financial crisis disproportionately benefited wealthy asset holders over others.  
  4. There is a need for more diverse public and non-profit financial institutions focused on social missions over profits.
  5. Crypto poses risks if it infects the core banking system or continues high-carbon polluting practices.

Links relevant to the conversation

Gerald Epstein’s book Busting the Bankers’ Club: Finance for the Rest of Us

https://www.amazon.com/Busting-Bankers-Club-Finance-Rest/dp/0520385640

Working paper co-authored by Prof. Epstein “Did Quantitative Easing Increase Income Inequality?”

https://www.ineteconomics.org/research/research-papers/did-quantitative-easing-increase-income-inequality

Transcript: From Jekyll to Hyde: Exploring the Dual Nature of Finance | The Bankers’ Club w/ Prof. Gerald Epstein  – EP226

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gerald Epstein  00:04

There’s a phenomenon in the US. The political scientists talk about this called capture that is that the regulatory agencies that are supposed to be regulating the industry, artefact captured by the industry and tend to operate, often in the in the interests of the industry.

Gene Tunny  00:29

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the shownotes relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning into the show. My guest this episode is Professor Gerald Epstein. He’s professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, and he’s co director of the Political Economy Research Institute. We discuss his new book busting the bankers club published by the University of California Press. It’s a great book demonstrating Professor Epstein’s deep knowledge of the US financial system. I thoroughly recommend it. So if you enjoyed this conversation, please consider buying a copy. I’ll put a link to it in the show notes. As always, please get in touch. If you have any thoughts on this episode, guest suggestions or ideas for how I can improve the show. You’ll find my contact details in the show notes. Right? Oh, we’d better get into it. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Professor Gerald Epstein. Professor Gerald Epstein, welcome

01:53

to the programme.

Gerald Epstein  01:54

Thanks so much for having me. Excellent. Gerald,

Gene Tunny  01:57

look, I’m really grateful for you appearing on the show to talk about your new book busting the bankers club finance for the rest of us. To start off with, could you tell us what is the bankers club?

Gerald Epstein  02:12

So the bankers Club is a group of allies, very powerful allies that support the banks and the financial Titans more generally. And the reason that’s important is because the banks in the United States in the book is mostly about the United States, but I think it’s true in many other places. They’re not very popular, people don’t like banks very much as a whole. I have my students look at a bunch of American movies about banks, they say, please find me a movie that has a favourable gives a favourable impression of the banks and, and they really can’t find them. So in the popular culture, you know, banks aren’t very popular, but they’re incredibly powerful. They’re in powerful politically, they’re powerful economically. And this is, despite the fact that we have these prices that the financial institutions seem to create every 10 years or so. And so the question is, how do they remain so powerful? And my answer is that it’s the bankers club is this group of allies that support the banks politically, economically, and helps them sustain their both economic and political power? And so I go into some detail discussion of various components or various groups within the bankers club,

Gene Tunny  03:37

broad and who are they? I mean, are you able to give some examples?

Gerald Epstein  03:42

She, of course, so there’s some usual suspects as you is what anybody would think about. So they’re the banks themselves and by banks, in this context, I mean, the mega banks, like Chase Manhattan Bank and Bank of America and the large banks, then the major hedge funds and private equity firms, and the large asset management firms. So we’re talking about mega finance more generally. So, of course, they’re the head of the club, but they get politicians to help them out, then that’s well known in the US and in other countries, and they get politicians to help them out by giving them campaign contributions by offering them good, lucrative jobs when they get out of the legislature. And in a variety of ways. They find finance friendly politicians, that will help them with legislation and so forth. So that’s kind of well known in many countries. Perhaps less well known is that the our central bank, Federal Reserve Board, is what I call the chairman of the club. The central bank, is historically Since it was founded in 1914, has been a big supporter of the banks. Partly this is for structural reasons that is, they rely on the banks, when they make their monetary policy they operate to the banks that interest rates, they expect the banks to pass these interest rate changes, up or down, depending on whether they’re fighting inflation or trying to get the economy going. So they have a kind of an intimate relationship with the banks. But what it also means, however, is that they tend to see the world through what I call finance coloured glasses. And so they tend to see the world the same way the bankers do. And more than that, they help out the banks in very significant ways. And we can see that most clearly in two areas. One is when they bail out the banks, like we have this great financial crisis of 2007 2008, and the Federal Reserve along with the US Treasury, but in trillions of dollars that keep the big bankers operating. But they also do it with regulation. That is they the Federal Reserve, and I think is true in many other countries, tends to really push for fairly flexible, and even very easy forms of regulation on the banks. And I’m very reluctant to put on very tough regulations on them. So we have politicians, the Federal Reserve, and then we have regulatory agencies, in the United States, we have various regulatory agencies that are in charge of regulating the banks. And there’s a phenomenon in the US, the political scientists talk about this called capture that is that the regulatory agencies that are supposed to be regulating the industry, artefact captured by the industry and tend to operate often in the in the interests of the industry. And once again, this is a process that goes on with financial regulation, the SEC, the OCC and other financial regulators we have, and I’m sure you have some in Australia. And we have the same revolving door processes that we have with the Fed. And then there are a couple of other groups that maybe are less well known. One is lawyers, many lawyers work for, for banks, they, they when they’re working in the regulatory agencies or in Congress, they help fashion regulation and and, and regulate and laws that help the banks. And they actually help write laws that are very bank friendly. And so we have a whole group of lawyers that are that are involved. non financial corporations, you think that one thing that I started during the Great Depression when this books my book starts talking about in talking about the Great Depression, and the New Deal financial regulation put into place by Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his administration. At that time, the big companies like us steel and the big industrial companies, they kind of parted way with the banks, the banks had helped crash the economy. And the big industrial companies said, Look, we need a new path. And they supported a lot of the financial regulation, like the Glass Steagall Act that separated for a commercial from industrial banks. But these days, our biggest corporations are very supportive of the banks, they don’t want to regulate finance. And so there many of them are members of the bankers club, too. And finally, I have to admit my own profession, economists, were very many of us are very me, but many are loyal members of the bankers club, become stuck with economic theories that say low regulation is best for society. Markets are efficient. They work better on their own, and this all works in the interests of the banks.

Gene Tunny  08:58

Yeah, yeah. Okay. Look, yeah, I think there’s definitely scope for discussion about the appropriate regulation of banks. That’s right. And we might get into that a little bit later. I’m just thinking about, you know, some of the people involved, I mean, often you hear their accusations levied against people like, was it Robert Rubin. And then Larry Summers, who were the treasury secretaries in the Clinton administration. That’s right. Is there a was there a concern that they were perhaps too close to, to the banks and that yes, yeah. Yeah.

Gerald Epstein  09:35

So Larry Summers, Robert Rubin. Alan Greenspan. They are, you know, golden members of the bankers club, all of them. The major deep financial deregulation that happened in the United States that kind of took apart the New Deal, structure of financial regulation. It happened. First, slowly building up. But then it really happened with the Big Bang. under President Clinton, who was a Democrat with the advice of Robert Rubin, who was chair of Goldman Sachs, and then city city Corp. Alan Greenspan, who was a libertarian, he was a follower of the philosopher Ayn Rand. And he was head of the Federal Reserve. And Larry Summers, who was a was was a very good economist, but somehow found himself kind of, as part of his part of the bankers club. And that was, that’s what really led us down the path to the great financial crisis. And to the problems we’re still having with banking. Yes,

Gene Tunny  10:39

yeah. It’s interesting, this idea the bank is clogged because it reminds me in Australia here, I mean, we’ve had successive treasury secretaries, that’s the head of the cabinet. First and responsible the Treasury is called the treasurer, that we’ve have successive treasury secretaries who have gone on to be the chairman of a bank. And I think for years that was seen as a pretty sort of cushy job. And it was until like, we had David Morgan who became head of Westpac, and then my old boss, Ken Henry ended up head of NAB, but for Ken ended up getting grilled at the Royal Commission into banking, and I don’t think he ever expected that that because we had a whole bunch of bad behaviour. Yeah, the bank’s due to a guest lacks oversight by our Prudential regulator. So absolutely. Same kind of thing. Yeah, yeah. Okay, so I think you’ve, you’ve given us a good description of the bankers club. What’s your case? Can you state your case, please, Professor Epstein, as to why the bankers club should be busted? Well,

Gerald Epstein  11:51

yeah, the title of the book is busting the bankers club finance for the rest of us. And the problem with the system as it is, is that our, our financial system has been has become incredibly bloated. It’s much too much too large. It uses way too many of our financial and human resources, it sucks in some of the best and the brightest of our young people, I can tell you, from my classes here at the University of Massachusetts, when I teach classes, a lot of our best and brightest students want to go into finance and banking. And they want to go in to the mega banks. And you know, the really the really lucrative ones. And there’s a whole literature, which I registered my built on, which is called too much finance. It’s an economics literature, which shows that its financial sectors get too large relative to the size of their economies. And this is a cross national study, that after a while, they’re they’re too big, or they’re structured inappropriately, or they’re doing negative things in the economy. And they actually contribute, after a certain point to lower economic growth, lower national income. And there’s something about having a bloated, an excessively large and complex financial system, which really harms everybody. So that’s, that’s one problem. But we have that’s just one of the problems. Another problem is that it’s bad for democracy that is, you know, Australia’s democracy, the United States is trying to risk to remain a democracy. And the idea is that it’s one person, one vote. But the process I’ve described, where the, these large institutions of powerful institutions are able to, by essentially legislation, regulatory practices that benefit them at the expense of the rest of society. That’s a major problem. But it’s, it’s even worse than that in the United States, because people understand that, that the whole process is unfair. When we had the great financial crisis, the Federal Reserve the Treasury, the government, and this was under both W Bush and Obama bailed out the banks. But they didn’t bail out the people, people lost their homes, people’s jobs were lost. And this made many Americans, understandably, very angry. And I think this turn to this very anti government kind of politics in the United States. That started with the so called Deep party at that time. And it’s now morphed into very, very extreme right wing populism that we had, that has kind of organised around and been organised by Donald Trump. Really stems I think, from this sense that our system is not fair. And so yeah, well understand that it’s not democratic. And I think it’s really poisoning our politics.

Gene Tunny  15:06

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  15:12

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with adept economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice. We can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world, you can get in touch via our website, www dot adept economics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  15:41

Now back to the show. Well, I think this idea of this, too much finance literature, I’m gonna have to have a look at it or a closer look, I’ve seen some of it, I think. I mean, obviously, we need banks. Okay. I mean, we’re not necessarily any banks, because banks do play an important role in providing credit and supporting businesses. I mean, you asked most bankers, they will think they’re adding value to society. What are the activities where there’s this so called too much finance? I mean, how, like, what how does that manifest? Yeah,

Gerald Epstein  16:18

excellent question. Well, I start off my book with a chapter called the Jekyll and Hyde finance. It builds on this idea from the Robert Louis Stevenson story, which some some of your listeners might have heard of, this very upstanding doctor, Mr. Dr. Jekyll, who was a pillar of the community and really supported the committee and did all kinds of things with it. But we had another base hidden inside of him, this Mr. Hyde, who was who was a criminal, and murderous, and so forth. And, and these different phases of this one entity would show itself depending on on the conditions. So our financial system is kind of like that, you’re absolutely right. We need a financial system that works for the everybody that works for the economy, we need to be able to finance people’s retirement be able to finance people’s ability to buy homes, we need to finance credit for businesses to invest in new plant and equipment. And the list goes on and on and on. The problem is that our current financial system in the United States, which I call roaring banking, it’s kind of comes from the bill boring banking idea of the 1950s and 60s that was very regulated, and morphed into roaring banking as a result of this deregulation, it led this financial markets and these big financial institutions to engage in more speculation taking on more and more risks, to invest in speculative bets and derivatives and other kinds of speculative activity. Yeah, and it resulted in them taking on much more risk, which allowed them to increase the profits and wages, going to the major investors, and to those at the top, without, at the same time, investing a lot in in new plant and equipment for businesses and so forth. In the United States. Many big corporations do not rely on the banks or even the financial markets for their major investments, they get most of the financing from the major investments from their own retained earnings, their own profits. And so it raises the question, well, what are these these big banks, hedge funds, private equity funds, what are they really doing? And many of them are not really supporting the real needs of the economy. In the United States, we have a lot of smaller banks and community banks. And they’re the ones who are much more likely to give home mortgages to give to lend to small businesses, and so forth. And the problem is, in the United States, we have a particular system, your system is different in Australia, what we have is these very speculative mega banks that are driving out to smaller banks. Part of the reason that happens is that when there’s a financial crisis, our government has a too big to fail policy. That means if you’re a really big bang, chances are you’re gonna get bailed out by the government. Whereas if you’re a mid sized or smaller bank, and you get in trouble, you’re not going to get bailed out or you’re gonna go bankrupt or get merged into another bank. And so depositors and investors don’t feel that safe, putting their money in the smaller banks. They Put them in the big banks as well. So the cost of capital for the smaller and community banks is higher, because of the too big to fail subsidy that the big banks get. So it’s an unfair competition. And it’s not a one of the things that I propose in the book is a set of policies that help make this competition, more level more, more fair, so that we have a whole variety of financial institutions that provide the needed services, as you said, that our economy needs. Okay.

Gene Tunny  20:36

Now, in your book, you talk about issues with mortgage backed securities, I suppose one of the things that people, you know, they were most critical of some of these major investment banks was there, you know, they’d be packaging up, or creating these mortgage backed securities and then selling them around the world. But at the same time, I forget which firm it was, but was one of the banks betting against products that was actually selling or one arm of Goldman Sachs. Yeah, Goldman Sachs was one of them. Yeah. So it’s, it’s,

Gerald Epstein  21:09

you know, it’s not really taking care of your clients. And it’s really betting against your own clients. And that’s kind of one example of a behaviour that this all allowed. Yes. Yeah.

21:23

And another. Another good point I think you make in the book.

Gene Tunny  21:29

And this gets to the fact that you argue that the Federal Reserve is at the head of the bankers club, you talk about the impact on of quantitative easing and the the adverse, or the unfair impacts of that. Could you elaborate on that, please? Professor Epstein.

Gerald Epstein  21:47

Yeah. So when the great financial crisis hit Central, the Federal Reserve and other central banks, were trying to revive the economy, understandably, that’s what they should have been doing. Interest rates were already in almost zero. So they wanted to come up with another tool to put liquidity in the in the economy and reduce the cost of investment, cost of capital and so forth, while helping to sustain the banks that were in trouble. So they engaged in what’s called quantitative easing. They put liquidity in the economy by buying up not just government securities, which is the typical way that they do open market operations. But they bought up asset backed securities, mortgage backed securities, this kind of thing from banks, which ended up increasing the value of these assets, which helped the banks because they had these, these assets on their balance sheets were which were not worth very much. So it helped the banks. But the the idea is that it was there hoping that it would also lower the cost of capital to borrowers and investors, and then to generate more employment, and so forth. So my graduate students, and I looked at whether what the impact was in the United States. So there could have been, there was this asset in value increase, which increases the wealth of asset holders, the banks and others, there was cost of capital mechanism that would have possibly lowered the cost for homeowners and others who were borrowing money. And then there was the impact on the interest rates that the consumers get on their savings in banks and banks. So we had a various impacts going in opposite directions, the asset value increase, we’re going to help the wealthy people because they’re the ones who have all the assets, reducing the cost of capital, would help those homeowners who needed to get their mortgage cost down. And the lowering of interest on savings might have hurt middle class and working class people because they hold their money in savings in the bank. So we have these different possible impacts. So we tried to figure out what the net effect was. And what we found was that in the case of the United States, during this period, the main impact was on increasing the wealth of the wealthy, that the other impacts were relatively modest. So there have been other studies of quantitative easing in other countries during this period, and most of them find something similar that it had a relatively small impact on employment and cost of capital for borrowing and a much bigger impact on the value of assets which helped primarily the wealthy. There’s some counter studies, but most of them go in that direction. Now. It’s not necessarily the case. But we weren’t arguing that the Fed was trying to do that, per se. I I think they would have liked to have seen the economy get going more. But that was the impact of the policy that they pursued.

Gene Tunny  25:05

Yeah, yeah. Okay. Why was Dodd Frank? So there were there were some changes to legislation, post financial crisis. So as a result of the financial crisis, why were they insufficient. So Dodd Frank in particular,

Gerald Epstein  25:22

right, so what what really needed to happen after the financial crisis, in my view, and in the view of other others who were looking for some big changes, first of all, these mega banks, Goldman Sachs, the Bank of America, and so forth, they’ve gotten too big to fail, too big to manage. Oftentimes, the people at the top didn’t really understand what the heck they were doing. The big jail that is, the government didn’t even put any of these people who ended up taking on fraudulent activity, they never made them have any consequences at all. So they were just too big. And so there were proposals during the Dodd Frank process, to shut down these big banks that one was to implement a new Glass Steagall Act, which was kind of a modern version of the separating commercial and investment bank, another was putting an asset cap on these banks to try to get them into a size that couldn’t run the economy that can be managed better, and so forth. That was never put on the table. Another thing that the some of us argued for, were consequences for the bad behaviour of the decision makers or the wrong decision makers. When these Goldman Sachs was selling these securities to their clients and betting against them. And then they they made a lot of bonuses and profits, and then the bank threatened to collapse. They didn’t have to give back their salaries, they didn’t have to give back their bonuses, they were able to take the money and run, there were attempts to put in so called law backs into the Dodd Frank legislation. So that we didn’t have moral hazard that is, so we didn’t have a situation where people didn’t have to pay the consequences of their bad behaviour. That was never really put in as in in a significant way. There were conflicts of interest all over the place, including with credit rating agencies, we had the credit rating agencies that were rating the securities, the asset backed securities and so forth, that were full of really dicey mortgages, they rated them leave parts of them triple A, which is this, which is the same as the US government securities, triple A ratings. And why? Well, because the investment banks demand that they rate them triple A, the veteran banks paid the rating agencies, if they didn’t rate them, triple A, then the investment banks would take their business elsewhere to another rating agency. So there are all these kinds of conflicts of interest. They weren’t really dealt with either the list could go on. We needed more regulation for derivatives, derivatives are relatively unregulated. And again, there wasn’t much done there is Well, the question is why? Why wasn’t there better regulation? And the answer is bankers club. Dodd and Frank were both very weak members of they had very kind of weak backbone for really taking the banks on both Republicans and Democrats in the Senate and the House of Representatives. Many of them were were on the take from the banks. Tim Geithner, who was Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers, we talked about before Ben Bernanke, head of the Fed, they didn’t really want to shake up the financial system. They just wanted to get it back up and running again. So the bankers club really did a number on Dodd Frank. Now, there were a few things that were done, and they were good, but they weren’t enough.

Gene Tunny  29:08

Yeah, okay. Okay. And did Trump do anything when he was in office?

Gerald Epstein  29:12

Yeah, Trump’s an interesting story. He ran on a platform when he was running against Hillary Clinton, a very populous platform, who said, All the banks are terrible. They really messed everybody up. Probably Clinton makes money from the banks as she terrible. I’m really going to do a number on the banks. But then when he was elected, he immediately put a bunch of Goldman Sachs people in his administration. And he appointed people to try to dismantle the Dodd Frank Act. And among the things that they did was to raise the size that banks could get before they were subjected to special capital requirements or liquidity requirements. The so called mid size banks, were set free to kind of do what they want and The result of that is we had the Silicon Valley Bank that went under, in 2023. Because they were a bank that had been subject to special reg regulation. Under Trump, they were, they were let go and not have had to be subject to this regulation. And they got in trouble. In the end, the government had to bail out the financial markets again. So the question is, you know, what would trump do if he got into power? Again, you know, it’s probably going to be a similar story, where he’s going to rail against the wealthy and the banks and so forth. But chances are, they’ll do more of the same and it will be kind of this the supreme member of the bankers club if he ever gets back into office. Okay. Do

Gene Tunny  30:43

you see a greater role for publicly owned financial institutions?

Gerald Epstein  30:47

I do. And so it’s time I think, to raise the point of about the others theme in my book, I talk a lot about the bankers club. But I also talk a lot about group I call the club of busters. That is, there are many legislators like Elizabeth Warren and others in our in our government, there are activists, there are economists and lawyers and regulators, who really do want to try to do the right thing. They really do want to try to regulate the financial institutions properly, and are pushing for legislation and regulation to do so Gary Gensler, for example, the head of the SEC, really wants to regulate crypto very strictly, as an example, is giving the crypto people a lot of headaches. He’s a member, he’s what I call a club buster. And what we need, I think, not only tighter regulations, and this is what most people argue for, but we need a whole ecology a whole set of public financial institutions. Now by public, I don’t necessarily mean government owned. But what I mean is financial institutions that have a public orientation, that is making the maximum profits is not their only goal. It’s not their goal. They have missions, public mission, social missions. So some of them can be owned by the government. And the United States, we have some community banks, state banks, and so forth. There are many government owned banks around around the world, but they can also be public private partnerships. They can even be privately owned, nonprofit, non nonprofit nonprofits, who have a social mission. We need many more of these financial institutions to provide low cost mortgages, and loans for small businesses, investment in deprived communities that need more investment, help with transition to a greener economy, at the local level, and the regional level. So we need what I call banks without bankers, that is, banks who don’t have typical bankers in them, they have to have skilled people, technically competent people. But for whom maximising profits is not the main goal. And in the United States, we have a very active public banking movement of activists around the country pushing for public banks of various kinds. Their major obstacles, like once again, is the bankers club who was trying to prevent them from from succeeding, but they’re, they’re these bank posted this quote, officers are working very hard.

Gene Tunny  33:29

Gotcha. Okay, I’ll have to look into that public banking movement. That’s interesting. I like your point that, look, it doesn’t necessarily have to be publicly owned, because like where I’m coming from, as in Australia, we’ve had some, we had some really colossal state bank collapses in the late 80s, early 90s, tri continental state bank of Victoria, and Bank of SA South Australia, if I remember correctly, so we’ve got a bit of a, an aversion to publicly owned banks here, because of the risks to the balance sheets. I liked how you describe that. And I think I’ll have to look more into that at public banking movement. It looks interesting. The one concern I would have is, is there a concern? Is there a risk that maybe, maybe they’re too cautious or they’re not innovative enough? Have you thought about that? Right?

Gerald Epstein  34:16

So, you know, there’s, there is an upside and a downside. As a graduate student, I study the cyclical behaviour of publicly oriented banks in different countries relative to the purely private for profit banks. And what we found was that they were much less cyclical that is they went up much less than the upside and went down much less on the downside. So it’s can be a stabilising force in the economy. But I think what you’re going to getting errors don’t we need some you know, real risk takers and people who are really good, willing to go out on the limb with some some crazy but maybe great ideas. Take the risks and we Absolutely do need that in a dynamic economy. The problem is, what we don’t want is the government backstopping that we don’t want the government saying, you when you gain, you lose, we pay. We don’t want a kind of lemon socialism. So, yes, we need a risk takers, and and they have to pay the consequences if it doesn’t work out. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  35:24

yeah. Yeah, that’s a good point. I mean, that was one of the points that came up during the financial crisis that they were privatising the profits, but socialising the losses. So exactly. That’s a that’s a good point. Right. Okay. Well, to finish up, we might, I might ask you about crypto because in your book, you talk about Jekyll and Hyde. You write just as finance, as both Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde face crypto has a bit of a Dracula quality as well. Could you tell us more about that, please.

Gerald Epstein  35:56

So if anybody who’s followed crypto or invest in it, they know, they know that there was a big bubble and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and 2122. But there was the so called crypto winter, and when the crypto values just, you know, collapsed, and then there are all kinds of scandals with sand bank and freeze in jail and several the other main crypto people are in are subject to criminal investigation, or maybe are in jail. So it seemed like around that time, the crypto was dead. But like the vampires you stick across in them, and they somehow, you know, they revive and now crypto I think, has has had a revival. It’s still trying to push ahead. And there are a lot of crypto friendly legislative leaders in the US and in other countries. And so it’s like, yeah, we all thought it was was dead, but it’s risen from the dead. And my view on crypto, is that again, it’s fine. It’s like, it’s fine if people want to mess with it, you know, in line and death, you know, gamble with it, and so forth. But we can’t let it do two things, one, either of two things. One is infect core banking system. Once we have crypto infecting the core banking system, we’re back to where we were in 2007 2008, when these exotic asset backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, and so forth, infected the very core of the banking system. So when they collapse, they threaten to bring down the banking system with it. As long as it’s a marginal thing. Have fun with it, I suppose, as long as people are aware of the the downsides, but there’s another problem. Most crypto is very carbon intensive, the crypto mining, it’s very bad for our environment, we have this, this existential threat of climate change. And the way crypto mining is done in most cases, not all cases now. It’s really adding as much carbon to the atmosphere as a small country like Iceland or some other country. So I think that has to be taxed. And if crypto can still you know, give some thrills to the its investors in a safe way without destroying the environment. Okay, go for it. But let’s not let it ruin the environment. And it let’s not let it infect our our core banking system. Yeah, very good points.

Gene Tunny  38:27

Okay. Professor Epstein, any final points? Before we wrap up? I think this has been a great conversation. And I did enjoy reading your book. And I’m going to recommend it. And I’ll put the link in the show notes. Any final points before we wrap up?

Gerald Epstein  38:42

Yeah, the final point is that was one of the things that’s kind of obvious from our conversation, my book is, is almost entirely about the United States. So whatever, if these processes happen elsewhere, it will happen in a different way. There have been people doing work in similar kinds of work in other countries, we have Nicholas Shaxson, who’s done interesting work in in England, and we have Jim Stamford, who you might know who is then actually work in Australia and Canada. So I don’t claim that this is a universal process. But But I do hope that other people explore some of these ideas in their particular countries in particular environments to see what’s similar and what’s different.

Gene Tunny  39:21

Absolutely. Okay. Professor Gerald Epstein, thanks so much for your time. I really enjoyed the conversation.

Gerald Epstein  39:26

Thank you very much.

Gene Tunny  39:29

Right. Oh, thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating thanks So listening, I hope you can join me again next week

40:16

thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this where to begin your own podcasting journey, head on over to obsidian-productions.com

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

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Podcast episode

How Wall Street Can Help Democracies Survive w/ Marcos Buscaglia – EP225

Show host Gene Tunny interviews Marcos Buscaglia, former head of the Latin America economics team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and author of the book “Beyond the ESG Portfolio, How Wall Street Can Help Democracies Survive.” Buscaglia argues that, through their investment choices, many investors have inadvertently been supporting autocratic regimes, and he calls for a change in investment practices. Tune in to this thought-provoking episode to learn more about the ultimate impacts of our investments and how Wall Street can contribute to the survival of democracies.

Please get in touch with us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google Podcasts, Apple Podcast and Spotify.

What’s covered in EP225

  • Introduction to the episode. (0:03)
  • Aligning investments with values and democratic growth. (4:32)
  • Autocratic regimes, EU funding, and corruption in Hungary. (9:41)
  • Investing in emerging markets while avoiding autocratic countries. (22:31)
  • Economic sanctions, autocratic regimes, and investment strategies. (28:06)
  • Economics, democracy, and the role of finance.

Takeaways

  1. Investing in autocratic regimes can inadvertently support and strengthen those regimes.
  2. ESG (environmental, social, governance) investing should also consider whether countries are democratic.
  3. ESG metrics and indices currently do not prioritize democracy as a factor.
  4. There are limited investment options that exclude autocratic countries, but investor demand can drive change in this area.
  5. Sanctions can be an effective tool in limiting financial support to autocratic regimes.

Links relevant to the conversation

Marcos Buscaglia’s book: Beyond the ESG Portfolio: How Wall Street Can Help Democracies Survive

https://www.amazon.com/Beyond-ESG-Portfolio-Democracies-Survive/dp/1265115605

Transcript: How Wall Street Can Help Democracies Survive w/ Marcos Buscaglia – EP225

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Marcos Buscaglia  00:03

By the time Russia invaded Ukraine ESG corrected government bond index of JP Morgan, right. Had a bigger share of Russia than then they they equal index that is not corrected by ESG. Let me open up parentheses to, to make to so everyone can understand. You know, a lot of the investments that finance autocrats end up being funnelled to them through funds that track indices.

Gene Tunny  00:40

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show was to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning into the show. My guest this episode is Mark Aasbo. Scalia is the former head of the Latin America economics team at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. And he’s the author of a new book Beyond the ESG portfolio, how Wall Street can help democracies survive, which we talk about in this episode. As I hope you’ll gather from my conversation with Marcos, he’s written a terrific book. It’s one that makes us think carefully about the ultimate impacts of our investments. have investors inadvertently been supporting autocratic regimes worldwide. Marcos argues that they have been and that should change. This is another thought provoking episode. So please get in touch with any comments or reactions, you can find my contact details in the show notes. And you can also find a link to Marcus’s book and other relevant information. Right, I would better get into it. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Marcos for Scalia. Marcus for Scalia, welcome to the programme.

Marcos Buscaglia  02:17

Thank you very much. Thank you for having me, Dean. Of course,

Gene Tunny  02:20

you’ve written a an excellent book, I’ve had a read of your book Beyond the ESG portfolio. How Wall Street can help democracies survive published by McGraw Hill, like us to start off with, could you tell us why did you feel the need to write this book, please? Yeah,

Marcos Buscaglia  02:40

it was it was great that a chance event, I would say, in the sense that I went to a meeting with a client in New York, about the time that Christina Kushner won the, you know, vice presidency, but But you know, she picked the president, the front runner, so she was everybody knew she was going to run the government, that this was the end of 2019. And I went to see this, this very nice client that very smart. And, you know, basically, you know, he argues that, you know, if these guys did the right thing in macro terms in economic terms, you know, they wouldn’t be ready to buy Argentina bonds. And I say, No, this is not right. This is not right, because I knew I suspected what you know, more than I knew, I suspected, you know, that. Christina Kidner will try to undermine democracy in Argentina, at least, you know, checks and balances, particularly not related to her corruption cases, you know, that were going on in courts and will try to undermine democracy in my home country. So I said, this is not right. And, you know, so you know, it was this, like, sort of, you know, small scale Rekha moments in her. And I say, Well, you know, there was something wrong with this. And I wrote a piece that, that the Financial Times blog, beyond breaks was very kind to publish at the beginning of 2020. Before the pandemic, and I got a lot of attention, you know, as so much people, you know, contacted me saying, Yeah, this is not right. For instance, some better roof journalists said, Look, you know, we’re, we’re being jailed. And at the same time, London houses, hold a lot of, you know, Belarusian bonds, but Belarus is, you know, outright autocracy for a long time. There’s no discussion, you know, about that. So, so basically, I say, you know, so So at some point, say, well, maybe I can turn this into a book, because I think this is, you know, this, this may be something important, something that can, you know, change the way we perceive things. Gotcha.

Gene Tunny  04:52

Now, what I’m wondering is, why do you think investors should care about this whether a country democratic mean, obviously, there’s the political reason or it’s the right thing to do. I mean, we want democracies, but they’re investors. So they’re trying to, you know, invest on behalf of clients and they want to get the best returns. I mean, I’d be thinking the things they’re looking at is, well, will we make money on this transaction? Or will this government actually pay its pay? Its its creditors? Will it actually pay the bondholders? So, why is it that this is something that investors should be thinking about? Well,

Marcos Buscaglia  05:37

I think it’s it’s twofold. I mean, there are two reasons. The first is is, you know, to align with your investment with your values, in the same way that you would not invest in companies that use child labour, or that basically, you know, attack one minority or that, you know, pollute, you know, outrageously pollute, you know, the environment, you know, and investors are already doing that, I mean, aligning their, their values with their investments with with the ESG framework, and that’s why we, you know, I put all this view within the ESG framework, you know, because that’s the framework in which, although, as you know, there is a lot of, you know, pushback now, but at least it’s a framework that tried to tries to align, you know, basically values with with with investment decisions, while in the same way that you will do that you will say, Well, you know, what, why would I finance, the finance the availa rules, you know, dictator, you know, or someone that is undermining democracy in his or her country. So, that’s that. So the first reason is to do good, right, to align values with with investment decisions. The second is that, I think that at the end of the day, you you end up doing better, you know, with with investing in democracies, the the empirical evidence on on this is not, there isn’t a lot of empirical evidence to be to be sure, I don’t want to, you know, be, you know, like selling something that is, that is not, you know, a lot of empirical evidence, but, but, look, if you look at what happens with with autocracies, you know, you know, the downsides that you face as an investor are downsides that you don’t face in, in democracies, in which, you know, there’s division of power, there is an independent press, there is an independent judiciary, look at what happened, for instance, we don’t know the litigation stocks in China, you know, a couple of years ago, look at what happened with you know, firms that were expropriated in Oh, no, in Egypt. You know, so there are so many examples of downside risk. And, and there is one thing that I, that there is a little more evidence, you know, that is that at the end of the day, democratic countries end up growing faster than non democratic countries. Of course, you know, there is China, you know, it’s, it’s, it’s, you know, it’s bad, when you put it all together, including China, the evidence suggests that democracy brings more growth, and then you will think, Well, you know, companies that are based in democratic countries, if the country grows faster, should should be doing better, right? It makes it it makes sense. You know, it is common sense to think that so, so again, although I cannot be selling to the people listening to this, you know, look, you’re, you’re for sure don’t going to do better investing in democracies, you know, the, it is reasonable to think that given that democracies tend to grow faster, on average, you know, compared to non democracies, that you would end up doing better. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  08:56

What I think’s interesting about your book is that you give a lot of examples, and you do identify some major financial institutions that are that you or you’re suggesting, are potentially in given the the title of your book. Well, I mean, their actions at the moment aren’t contributing aren’t helping democracies survive and could actually be undermining democracies? Could you explain how that is? I mean, by buying bonds of foreign countries or by investing in those countries, how is that actually undermining democracy in those countries or or supporting the autocracies? Could you give some examples, please?

Marcos Buscaglia  09:41

Yes, of course. You know, at the end of the day, particularly when they’re building their their autocratic regimes, this one of the autocrats build the reputation of being successful, you know, typically they come to power let’s say, let’s say you know the case Since that I’ve started I have not covered, you know, all the autocratic countries, of course, but take the case of, you know, Erdogan in Turkey or Chavez in Venezuela, you know, or, or the commissioners in Argentina, you know, they typically come to power or pull in, you know, in Russia, so they come to power after a period of harsh, you know, economic contraction, and, you know, IMF, typical IMF, you know, austerity programmes, and they come to power and for different reasons, you know, sometimes they’re just lucky, you know, like the cases of Chavez in and occasionally, because commodity prices went up, and they were in the right place at the right time. And, and so, you know, these countries export commodities, namely, oil in Venezuela, and, you know, the cultural goods in Argentina, so, the countries, you know, became wealthier, and they were in power. So for different reasons, but, you know, they consolidate their power, because they’re successful, because they, they come and people say, you know, these guys are successful, but, so, if you’re financing them, you’re helping them to be successful. And, and the market was very happy to finance Venezuela, for instance, when Chavez was clearly undermining, you know, all constitutional checks and balances. Actually, what I’m showing this in the book is that Chavez dismantled, you know, democracy, almost from day one, day one, he called, you know, a constitutional assembly that basically changed the way the institutions of industrial change, work and, you know, forever. And, and, and, and markets, you know, at the same time, we’re, we’re, you know, we’re very happy, you know, you know, taking the bonds that that Chavez redeem, was sent into the market and the VESA, which is the ministry lost one company, so and this has this doesn’t happen in a vacuum in the sense that is not that is people is not aware of what is going on, because you have all these democracy watchers, you know, like, Freedom House, and, and V them and, you know, there are a lot of democracy workers around the world institutions that dedicate themselves to, to, you know, follow up what is going on with democracy. And, and basically, they, they, this, you know, this is this institutions are tracking on real time, you know, what is going on with democracy, and fagging that to the world. And the media also, you know, you know, reflects that. So, it’s not that you’re buying a bond on him off Venezuela or Russia. And you’re totally unaware, you know, that these countries are, you know, sliding into autocracy.

Gene Tunny  12:52

Yeah. Yeah. Good point. Good point. Okay. Now, yeah, what I found interesting is just the the broad range of countries around the world that you that you look at what’s been happening in Hungary, and you, you make the accusation or you identify that the EU has undermined democracy in Hungary? Could you explain that, please, Marcus? Well,

Marcos Buscaglia  13:14

you know, it’s it’s that, you know, Hungary has received for a long time, very important. transfers from the, from the EU, you know, this is part of the typical accession programme, when a country, you know, that is poorer than the average, you know, of the Euro bucks exceeds the European Union, you know, it gets, it gets a lot of money from the European Union, to union to build infrastructure. You know, we have seen that in Spain, for instance, you know, many, you know, some decades ago, and so that happened with Hungary. But the funny fact about Orban is that he speech is an anti Brussels as he called me, you know, speech, you know, he has been bashing the European Union, you know, because European Union puts a lot of constraints on this, of what these countries can do. And at the same time, at the same time that he was bashing the European Union, he was receiving money. Fortunately, you know, very recently, the European Union Fest has changed some rules, and has been withdrawing money, you know, to Hungary, so has not been sending the money to Hungary. So, so, because of violation of some articles, you know, I’m not an expert. Exactly. I don’t remember, you know, I don’t have them on the top of my mind, but it has to buy been violating some articles of the European Union. So, so basically, now, but but in the meantime, you know, it has sent, you know, several percentage points per year of funding a net terms to the to Hungary, the European Union, and, and moreover, there are significant you know, there are there are many indicators, several indications that there was a lot of corruption in this in the contracts for to build infrastructure. funded by the European Union, right? So so so, you know, basically, if you want to put it well, if you want to synthesise this is, you know, there is a band of brothers, you know that, that is managing, you know, Hungary, and these, these guys get all the contracts, you know, we’re almost all the contracts.

Gene Tunny  15:22

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  15:27

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Gene Tunny  15:57

Now back to the show. One of the points you make in the book is that you think that ESG so environment, social governance, the this requirement or this, this commitment by companies to pursue ESG goals, you think that is not enough on its own to, to prevent or to or to just stop the investment in countries that are autocracies. So, why is ESG which does have you know, it’s got environment, social governance, why is that not enough on its own?

Marcos Buscaglia  16:36

Let me tell you a couple of things. We went into, you know, several, you know, let’s say books that analyse you know, ESG standards and, and to several metrics of companies that do that, and you don’t find the word democracy there. Sometimes you find human rights, you know, but But basically, it’s not a, it’s not a big component. So basically ESG is not built to, to reflect, you know, democratic values, as it stands now. So again, and again, we look into, you know, the metrics, that that several companies that they dedicate themselves to ESG standards look into. And let me tell you, a very, you know, telling example of why, you know, that you can see that inaction. You know, by the time Russia invaded Ukraine, that that day ESG corrected government bond index of JP Morgan, right, had a bigger share of Russia than then the the equal index that is not corrected by ESC. Let me open our indices to, to make two so everyone can understand, you know, two parenthesis certified indices, a lot of the investments that finance autocrats end up being funnelled to them through funds that track indices, right? Remember, I don’t know if you saw the news, you know, these days, but ETFs have surpassed, you know, active funds in, in, you know, in assets under management, well, ETFs track indices, you know, set let’s say in the, in the stock market, they are the most you know, popular ones on there are the Morgan Stanley MSCI indices in the in the, but there are many, of course, you know, and in the bond in the government bond indices in the market, the JP Morgan ones are the most common ones are out there, there are a lot of, you know, several indices. So, but they they, particularly for emerging markets, the JP Morgan indices are very important, right, so, so these indices, let’s say the dollar ones, the most common ones are called the NB you know, the MB them the global, the MB diversified. And then very more recently, you know, you know, JP Morgan issued, you know, the ESD corrected versions of this, right. So, so, what happens is that the, the banks or institutions that produce these indices, and then there are ETS or active funds that track these indices, what do I mean by this gene? You may know this, but Is that us imagine that you are an investor and institutional investor and you offer your services, you say, Well, look, I will track the JP Morgan in MB index, and you will see how I over outperform it, because I’m very good, you know, that’s, that’s your benchmark. Okay. So, so now, but back to track, so you have these two indices, and the the the weight of Russia in the ESG, corrected version of the JPMorgan MB was higher than the non ESD. Correct. What does what does that mean? That if Jean, if you were tracking the ESG corrected version of the index, you should have had a bigger share of Russian government bonds than in the non ESG corrected one. You know what I mean? So so you will be more apt supposed to Russia, if you were tracking and ESG index by the day Russia invaded Ukraine. Right? I don’t know if this was clear or not. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  20:08

I mean, that’s extraordinary. So if you were, if you were conscious of ESG goals, and you would have been overweight in Russian bonds, more than the market as a whole, do you have any insight into why that was? Why Russia was disproportionately? In that? That index? You

Marcos Buscaglia  20:27

know, I don’t know, because I don’t I don’t have the the exact ways I just read this in, in a report. Yeah. But my take is that, you know, given that, let’s say, you know, they take into account, for instance, whether you should green bonds, right. So, so maybe, you know, some countries didn’t issue green bonds, and also they have a lower share in that index. And that Biden, by construction, you know, mean, that meant that Russia had a bigger way. You know, that’s, that’s, you know, that’s an alternative that I can think about, I can think of, but remember, at the end of the day yesterday, as it doesn’t take into account democracy, it takes into account, you know, other the other issues that say, let me give you another example, let’s say Poland, remember that Poland, up until very recently, when when the government was ousted in the elections, it was sliding towards autocracy, you know, and Poland is the bigger, biggest sovereign issuer of green bonds. Right? All right. So, come on gene, money is fungible. Right? You know, so yes, if you finance, if you finance the Polish government to let’s say, to build wind farms, that’s very nice. We all want that. Right. But money is fungible, maybe some part of that money was diverted towards, you know, you know, the Secret Service or, you know, or to buy a media company, or, or, or even if that wasn’t the case, you know, you free up space in the budget, you know, because you’re, you’re you’re funding the the wind farms, and then you’re, you’re freeing up space in the budget to, to finance, you know, the secret police or whatever, you know, whatever an autocratic government will be doing. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  22:13

absolutely. I think there’s several good examples in the book there. So, you, you talk about adding a D to ESG? So it would be what ESD, GE or Ed SG, or however you want to want to pitch it? What are your recommendations for going about that markets? How would you actually get the D in there? What are their regulations that need to change?

Marcos Buscaglia  22:39

I think, maybe regulations, but I think at the end of the day, it seems investors asking for this to happen. I mean, you know, there are several investors, which already do that, but not in the sense that I know, you know, some friends in the, in the financial industry, that tell me Well, you know, this is this is not gonna be, you know, recorded anywhere, but, you know, many, but some big clients come to us and say, We know, we want to invest in a portfolio of emerging market bonds, but please exclude you know, this, you know, x and y and z because they’re autocratic. Right. So one way more general, so, so I think that at the end of the day, is investors, you know, requirements that will bring the change, and that’s the purpose of the book, you know, to bring awareness that this is happening, you know, so investors can demand, you know, for instance, they index providers to do something, right, are the ESG score providers to do something, you know, so, so my take is that I want to bring awareness. But but other than that, you know, given that that may may take time, I provide some solutions to that, let’s say you can do that in your portfolio, say, Well, you know, I will, I will there are some ways to invest in, in, in, in both in the in the equity world and the fixed income world in to try to exclude some autocratic countries, for instance, or diminish the importance. Yeah, your portfolio.

Gene Tunny  24:07

Is this a way for some fund managers to differentiate themselves to attract new business? So, for those people around the world who are concerned about this, I mean, I think people should be concerned about this. I, I agree with you, do you see any companies or any hedge funds or investors, investment managers, fund managers doing this at the moment? Very

Marcos Buscaglia  24:29

few that I’m aware of, there are a couple of ETFs you know, one that is, is based on exclusion is an Emerging Markets Equity Fund is called I think life and liberty and, and it’s basically the Exclude autocratic countries. And then the the second one is an ex US equity fund, right? And instead of a It’s gruelling, it diminishes the weight compared to the benchmark, you know? Yeah. The benchmark again is is, is, you know, X US equity, you know, benchmark. And they diminish the, you know, the weight of the autocratic countries. So that’s in the ETF world. And then I have been in contact with this company, this is a rather new initiative called Tom. And Tom is, you know, French asset manager, who offers for it to situational investors in this case, not to, you know, not to individuals, and strategy, equity strategy, I think, or liberty or, you know, something like that. So, and again, I think there are a few more, but it’s not widespread, is not widespread.

Gene Tunny  25:45

Gotcha, gotcha. Few more questions. What’s the role of government here? So in your book, you mentioned something that the Trump administration did so in August 25 2017, President Trump imposed financial and economic sanctions on Venezuela, executive order 13 808, but the Venezuelan government and in its state owned companies in this joint public, private ventures from international credit markets, is this a type of thing that needs to be done? more widely? Should governments be actively promoting democracy using these economic weapons?

Marcos Buscaglia  26:28

Well, you know, there is a big discussion about this, you know, some people say that sanctions could have gone too far. And that, you know, they they undermine the standards of living of the locals. But I do think that I’m on the camp that thinks that, you know, yes, sanctions should, should be used. And this is because at the end of the day, as I said, you know, before autocrats even though they’re out to grads, they need the economy to be doing well, you know, unless, you know, it’s a very tight autocracy like North Korea, you know, probably the probably, they don’t, they don’t care what the economy’s were, but, you know, other other autocratic regimes at the end of the day, you know, the economy is not doing well, you know, they’re gonna suffer at some point. So, so my take is that you need to cut them off from from from fresh funds, you know, because in that way, you will undermine the the the autocrat, and, and basically that that would help, you know, the democracy movements inside the country. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  27:32

Do you have any thoughts on how the measures the sanctions, the freezing of bank accounts, assets in foreign countries, all the other restrictions that have been imposed on Putin’s regime? Do you have any insight into how they’ve they’ve gone? I’ve heard that. I mean, they, Russia seems to be, you know, living through it, or they sit? I mean, I’m sure it’s imposed some pain, but I don’t think they’ve been the take I’ve seen is that they haven’t those measures haven’t been as effective as US Treasury, as the US administration. Hope. Do you have any, any views on that?

Marcos Buscaglia  28:08

Well, you know, I’m not an expert again, but but my take of what I’ve been reading about sanctions is that it depends on what you want to achieve with the sanctions, you know, some sanctions are just, and, you know, are not aimed at bringing regime change. They’re just thought to be to make the life of those, the, you know, the, the autocrats and their Aiders and abettors, you know, Marmee several, you know, so, so, so, you should not, you know, measure the success or not in on whether there is regime change, because they were not aim at that, to start with, you know, so So some of the sanctions, you know, came out of the Magnitsky Act in the US, then then became the global Magnitsky Act, and several counties have, you know, copied that, and this, this arc was born out of, you know, the work of, of an American investor, Bill Browder, who, who had a fund or the Hermitage fund in, in Russia, and suddenly, you know, he got into the wrong people. And, and he got sacked, and everybody escaped Russia, except for this lawyer that was representing him. Magnitsky and he was basically illegally taken to jail and he died there. And so, will rather say, Well, you know, I, I will try to make the life of those people that that, you know, made Magnitsky life miserable, miserable myself, you know, so, so, and, and, and so, so, again, so, the sanctions that I was talking about what not that ones were related to the sales and trading of government bonds, you know, so that’s, that’s those are the sanctions that I referenced in borg in the sense that say, Well, you know, maybe, you know, the trading of bonds that are already out there, you can you can prohibit you will be hurting, you know, the, the American or the or the Western, you know, investors, but, you know, let’s, let’s stop them from from getting new bonds, you know, you can do that. And I think that that, that would be good. Although, you know, I take notice, you know, there are two sides on this debate, you know, of, you know, whether sanctions are to match, you know, my side is don’t give out to grads or out to God wannabes, you know, new money for them to look good on the population of their countries. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  30:41

yeah. And just try and around all around this often just try to summarise it all, is this a, is this essentially an enlightened self interest? So even though in the short term, you might be able to get higher yields on these, you know, that’d be paying a higher interest rate on these bonds from autocratic countries? In the long term? This is not a good thing. I mean, obviously, there’s the moral question. But if there’s this spread of these autocratic regimes, and you raised some concerns about populist regimes potentially becoming autocratic, if there’s this spread of them across the world, ultimately, that’s worse, makes us all worse off? If so, is it a matter of enlightened self interest?

Marcos Buscaglia  31:24

I think so. And again, they’re the metrics particularly, there is no very good research on the fixed income side, but there is some research on the equity side that you end up doing better, you know, in investing in democratic countries. So So So, you know, let’s let’s, you know, yesterday was seen in, in X, you know, formerly known as Twitter, the, you know, chart of, you know, the, the s&p against the, I don’t remember what, what Chinese stock market index, you know, well, you would have done so much better investing in the US or for the sake of the example, you know, against, you know, any European or, or democratic country compared to China, right? And, and we’re talking about the darling of the autocracies in economic terms, right? You know, because remember that for any, you know, China in economic terms, you have 10, you know, failed economic autocracies, you know, autocratic regimes, particularly in Africa, of course, but but you’re talking about in economic terms, the darling of the of the autocracies, and even in that case, you know, on the long run, you will not have done any money in China.

Gene Tunny  32:38

Yeah, yeah. Gotcha. Okay. Finally, before we, before we wrap up, but you’re coming to us from Argentina. Argentina, has a new president who has, you know, really made a huge impact on the world stage with his speech in Davos, what are the what are the prospects for, for him getting things under control there? In Argentina? I mean, I know that you’ve had, you know, very high inflation. There are huge issues with with the government budget, aren’t there? I mean, what are the prospects for, for him getting things under control? Do you have any insights into that? Well,

Marcos Buscaglia  33:15

you know, he doesn’t have an easy job. Because the, you know, the imbalances that he inherited are so big, let’s say, utility prices, transport prices are so out of whack compared to the costs, you know, money printing has been, you know, huge in the last four years. You know, the exchange rate was totally misaligned. I mean, you have so much misalignments on the macro side to correct, you know, for to start with, and then, you know, he’s also trying to change, you know, the economic structure of Argentina, which basically, you know, it’s, it’s an economy that closed, you know, to foreign trade, trade many, many decades ago. And then, on top of that, you know, it assembler, and all sorts of regulations and vested interests, you know, that live well, in a country that is important getting poorer than the rest of the population is getting poorer day by day. So he’s trying to disentangle those, you know, benefits, special benefits, and these special interests will fight and they’re fighting. So, so it’s not a it’s not an easy task. It starts particularly he’s, you know, President carrier Malay is in, in a minority government. So, so But basically, you know, he, I think he has, you know, still a fair chance of success because, you know, Argentina has been stagnant for the last 12 years, you know, we have 12 years of stagnation or decline in per capita terms with very high inflation with a very high poverty rate with a lot of immigration now, so So I think that The population said, you know, further up. So basically there is a there is a chance for him to succeed, you know, he’s not guaranteed because you know, the Sisa isn’t a minority government in an in a delicate macro and structural, you know, programme. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  35:19

yeah, gotcha. It’s fascinating because he’s a Libertarian candidate. Well, he was a libertarian. I mean, now he’s got to manage a government and it’s going to be, it’ll be interesting to see. I mean, I’ve seen it as some sort of experiment into how, you know how that sort of approach can go a libertarian approach to government. So we’ll have to, we’ll have to see how that all works out. Okay, Marcus Pascale, it has been terrific. Yeah, I’ll put a link in the show notes to your book and encourage you if you’re listening, I think this the books definitely worth reading. I learned a lot about the global economy and, and, you know, all sorts of interesting, interesting transactions. And so there’s reference to all of you know, major players, Goldman Sachs, for instance, gets gets called out for some of their their actions. So, yeah, it’s been terrific. Any final thoughts before we close? Marcos?

Marcos Buscaglia  36:22

No, no, I mean, again, I think that that my interest is in bringing awareness that this is happening, that sometimes he says it’s happening unwittingly, that you may be financing autocracy in your portfolio, and you don’t realise it so that it’s time to take action that there is a real struggle in the world for democracy. You know, democracy has been sliding. And and I don’t think that we want to be, you know, involuntary complicit with that, you know? Yeah,

Gene Tunny  36:49

absolutely. I mean, it’s the sort of thing I might start asking questions of myself. So the big thing at the moment here in Australia is we’re looking at how can we improve improve disclosures relating to climate change? What what’s the impact on climate change? What are companies doing in terms of mitigation adaptation? Whereas maybe what we need is to have more focus on what the least the banks and the financial businesses what they’re doing with regard to democracy, why we should have maybe we should have more insight into that, I’ll have to think about that. And he’ll probably

Marcos Buscaglia  37:26

meet let me give you a small but important example of that. A little bit over a month before the presidential election in Turkey, the Turkish government issued the first ever green bond, and the market was very happy $2.5 billion dollars. At the same time, another one was spending money like crazy to win reelection, the polls indicated that he would lose the election, but he was spending like crazy giving handouts to everyone. And he won the election. So you may say, Well, you know, maybe the market thinking that they were, you know, contributing to the environment in because it was a green bond. Maybe they contributed to consolidate autocracy in Turkey.

Gene Tunny  38:06

Yeah, yeah. Very possible. Very possible. Yes. Lots to lots to keep an eye on, Marcos, for sure. Look, this has been fascinating. I really enjoyed your insights. totally recommend your book. So well done. And yeah, I look forward to the to seeing your work in the future and hopefully catching up sometime in the future. Thanks so much for your time.

Marcos Buscaglia  38:32

Thank you, Jean. But it was very nice talking to you.

Gene Tunny  38:35

rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

39:22

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

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Podcast episode

Reagan’s Budget Boss David Stockman on Trump’s Economic Policies – EP224

Economics Explored host Gene Tunny speaks with David Stockman, who was President Reagan’s first director of the Office of Management and Budget. Stockman discusses his new book, “Trump’s War on Capitalism,” and shares his frank and fearless commentary on the former president’s economic policies. In his foreword to the book, Robert F. Kennedy Jr wrote, “Stockman has become one of the nation’s most steadfast and eloquent crusaders against the corrupt merger of state and corporate power.”

Please get in touch with us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored. 

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google Podcasts, Apple Podcast and Spotify.

What’s covered in EP224

  • Trump and capitalism. (0:04)
  • Trump’s fiscal and monetary policies. (4:41)
  • Government spending and lockdowns during the Trump presidency. (10:04)
  • Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impact. (15:06)
  • COVID-19 response and blame game. (20:05)
  • US economy under Trump, job growth, and performance. (25:51)
  • Economic growth and tax cuts during Trump’s administration. (30:10)
  • Monetary policy and inflation during Trump’s presidency. (36:26)
  • Corruption in US government and military spending. (41:56)
  • Alan Greenspan’s legacy and economic challenges. (49:54)

Takeaways

  1. David Stockman argues that while Trump portrayed himself as a capitalist, his fiscal and monetary policies like large tax cuts, increased spending and pressure on the Fed to keep rates low were reckless and a threat to capitalism.
  2. According to Stockman, the data shows the US economy was not in its strongest position ever pre-COVID, as Trump claimed, with key metrics like GDP growth, job growth and investment lower under Trump compared with some previous presidents.
  3. Stockman believes Trump bears responsibility for the unprecedented pandemic spending and deficits, as he could have resisted lockdowns but instead endorsed huge stimulus packages.
  4. Stockman views Trump as the worst president for sound money policy due to his pressure on the Fed to keep rates low.

Links relevant to the conversation

Amazon page for Trump’s War on Capitalism:

https://www.amazon.com/Trumps-War-Capitalism-David-Stockman/dp/1510779329

William Greider’s famous 1981 Atlantic article “The Education of David Stockman”:https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1981/12/the-education-of-david-stockman/305760/

Transcript: Reagan’s Budget Boss David Stockman on Trump’s Economic Policies – EP224

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

David Stockman  00:04

He’s campaigned against the Fed, but he wants an easier fed, okay, I want to read the Wall Street doesn’t like totally different I want a Fed that’s proven that pursues sound money policy Trump wants a fed that prints even more money than the flood we already have.

Gene Tunny  00:28

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning into the show. My guest this episode is David Stockman, who was President Reagan’s first director of the Office of Management and Budget. Prior to the Reagan administration, he had served as a congressman. And after he left the administration, he had a career in private equity in business. David has a new book out titled Trump’s war on capitalism, and I was delighted to speak with him about it. David is a frank and fearless commentator, and I was never left wondering what he really thought about the former President’s economic policies. Indeed, David has a long history of Frank commentary. He first became famous for some frank remarks he made in 1981, to journalist William Greider about the Reagan administration’s budget strategy is also tangled with Paul Krugman, among other prominent commentators in the US. I really enjoyed this conversation with David and I hope you do too. Regardless of whether you agree with him or not, I think you have to respect his ability to argue his points. And he will demonstrates that ability in this conversation. I get the sense he is incredibly resilient as he’s copped a lot of criticism over the years, he’s had to make a multimillion dollar legal settlement with the SEC. He’s even a defender of criminal charges, they did end up being dropped by the SEC, I should note, all of this is to say that he’s had a very interesting career and life experience. And he’s someone worth hearing from, in my view. Now, David expresses some very thought provoking views in this episode, and I expect you’ll have some thoughts on what he says and you may have some thoughts on some of the things I say. So please get in touch and let me know your own thoughts. My contact details are in the show notes as our links related to the book and about David Righto. We’d better go into the episode. I hope you enjoy my conversation with David Stockman about Trump’s war on capitalism. David Stockman thanks for joining me on the programme.

David Stockman  02:46

Very happy to be with you got a lot to talk about here, I think. Absolutely.

Gene Tunny  02:50

Well, you’ve written a very provocative book a very, very in depth book looking at the policies of the former President Donald Trump and prospects for a new term if the minute is looking very possible that Donald Trump could be in the White House again next year. So your book is called Trump’s war on capitalism. Now, this is, this is interesting because too many of us, Donald Trump is the exemplar of the American capitalist. And yet you argue that he is undertaking a war on capitalism. And even more strongly, well, strongly. You argue that is a clear and present danger to capitalist prosperity. Could you explain David, how do you how can we reconcile these things? I mean, Donald Trump does seem to be the exemplar of a capitalist, but yet he’s a threat to capitalism. How do we reconcile these facts?

David Stockman  03:58

Well, those are great questions. I don’t think really, he’s an exemplar of capitalism. And we can get into that. I think he’s an exemplar of getting lucky when the Fed created so much inflation and asset prices and made debt so cheap that if you were a speculator, in New York City, real estate or elsewhere, you possibly made a lot of book, wealth, but I don’t think it was capitalist genius behind it. That’s the first point. The second point is that his policies were really almost anti capitalist in some common sense notion of conservative economics. To have a healthy capitalist economy. You need three things. One, fiscal rectitude, you can’t be running up the public debt, spending like there’s no tomorrow and having the government grow and mushroom and impinge in every direction on the economy. You can’t have easy money and a central A bank that is flooding the system. With cheap credit and excess liquidity, you can’t have a government that is really anti free market, which is what, you know, trade protectionism is all about. And he’s the biggest protectionist in the White House. You know, since I don’t know Hoover set, and Smoot Hawley in 1931. So all of his policies were really in the wrong direction. Now, I do concede in the book, that the one abiding virtue that Donald Trump has is he’s got all the right enemies, okay. The establishment hates him, The New York Times The Washington Post, CNN, The Washington, what I call you, in a party establishment, the leadership and the long standing careerist of both parties can’t stand him. But basically, it’s because he’s an outsider is because he’s unwilling to conform, and he’s pretty obnoxious, and unpredictable. That’s why they’re against him. The point of the book, though, is none of his power. And his policies were wrong, even if he had the right enemies. And nothing that he did help the economy or addressed, the huge long term problems we have of a runaway public debt of a government is way too big and too costly and too intrusive. And especially at the heart of the matter, a central bank that is out, it’s a rogue Central Bank, it’s out of control. And yet Trump was constantly on their case, demanding even easier money, lower interest rates, even more, you know, of the same that got us into, you know, the huge bubbles and troubles that came from them. So, the point of my book was to say he had a chance he’s got her four year record we can look at it is terrible, it offers nothing in terms of remediation of our great problems and putting us in a different direction for the future. So, you know, don’t waste the opportunity. And you know, that’s about where I come out.

Gene Tunny  07:13

Right. Okay. So you write about what you call the Donald’s reckless fiscal and monetary policy. So we might talk about fiscal first. Now, among other things, you talk about the most grotesque act of fiscal malfeasance in American history. So that was something that Trump was associated with you argue? Are you talking about the the big tax cut the Trump tax cut in 2017? Is that Is that something you see as as reckless,

David Stockman  07:44

and that’s part of it, but I’m looking at the overall picture, and the data, the big top line data on spending and borrowing on the public debt. Now, let’s just take it down to the core metric, which is the public debt. I mean, if you’re running huge deficits and spending, far beyond your willingness or ability to tax, it comes out in the public debt. When Trump became president in round terms, that public debt was about 20 trillion. When he left it was 28. That’s 8 trillion of growth, a trillion of debt, public debt. In four years, you let me ask the question, when did when did we get the first 8 trillion of public debt? And how long did it take us to get there? The answer is in two or three, it took us 216 years 43 presidents to rack up a trillion in debt. He did it in four years. That’s kind of the bottom line. It puts it in perspective, in terms of how big the air was. If we look at other more conventional measures, you get the same picture, the average deficit to GDP and that’s another good ratio, you know, how big is the deficit or surplus relative to the national economy? It will the deficit average two and a half percent of GDP for all the presidents from the early 50s through 2016. The deficit under Trump’s four years average 9% of GDP, almost four times more than it had been the average going back for. If you look at spending, I think that’s important. And again, let’s take the inflation out of the picture and looked at it in inflation adjusted for real terms real spending. Trump average 7% per year during his tenure, for instance, big spending Obama right before him was 2% per year in real terms. Reagan when I was there was 3% per year. In real terms, the average was two and a half. So again, Trump was you know, three times, in some cases four times more In terms of the growth rate of spending then haven’t heard historically. So you know, if when you go through those kinds of measures, and then of course, it all culminated, I just want to put this last point. And in 2020, when he made the huge mistake of shutting down, locking down the economy based on very bad advice from some very bad doctors that worked for the federal government, if he had any principles about, you know, property rights and personal liberty and constitutional due process, he never would have ordered a lockdown to the economy. But in any event, he did that in 2020. And as a result of that, we had just an explosion of spending to bail out the economy that the government had ordered to close. And I’m talking about the 2 trillion worth of stimulus measures that were passed with his urging, you know, with his support in 11 days, I mean, this was an $800 800 page, I mean, Bill that contain 2.2 trillion, where the so called Cares Act, you know, banned unemployment insurance benefits, that checks 200 million households, massive amounts of money to education, health, other institutions. The point is, they passed 2.2 trillion in spending and 11 days, nobody read the 800 pages. And that was just the warm up. He then, you know, insisted on the second stimulus or COVID Relief bill in December that he signed right before he left, that was another 2 trillion. And it paved the way for the last 2 trillion that Biden put on top of it, when he came in, basically to implement an extension of all of the freebies and free stuff and giveaways that Trump had put into place during 2020. Well, the reason I’m dwelling on this is it added up to $6.5 trillion of spending, almost sight unseen in terms of legislative review, and scrutiny, it happened in 12 months, march 2020, to march 2021. And that in itself was equal to 150% of the pre existing budget. In other words, in 12 months, they passed the emergency spending that was 1.5 times bigger than the entire federal budget, defence, Social Security, interest payments, student aid and all the rest of it. This is how far it was out of control. And he was sitting in the Oval Office with a veto pen in his hand, theoretically, but obviously, his stubby little fingers never gotten here, the veto pen, he didn’t veto anywhere in either he waved it on. And so therefore, you have to blame him for the most outrageous edge Regis outbreak of fiscal madness that we’ve ever seen in peacetime or wartime in this country. And when you prove that’s where, you know, that’s where you come out that you know, as his record is undeniable, the facts are all there. Why in the world, the Magga fans and Republicans or the Republican rank and file, want him to have another chance is really beyond me. But I wrote this book test, just in case someone cares about, you know, the reality and about the facts, that if they do put him back in, they’re probably going to put him on the ticket. And if the country puts him back in the Oval Office, there is no, it should be no confusion about what you’re getting, you’re getting a worse, you’re getting a exacerbated case of all the problems that we have already today. Rod,

Gene Tunny  14:05

okay. In terms of that spending, I thought that was interesting. You compare the growth rate of spending under Trump versus other presidents, including Reagan. And I was surprised it was. Yeah, there was that stark difference that’s due to that, that pandemic stimulus is that that, you know, one and a half times the budget that was approved in whatever, 11 days or however many, there was an extraordinary fact you mentioned there. Now, one thing I’d like to ask you about because I’m in Australia, so I’m less familiar with exactly what happened in the States than I am here. I mean, I’ve seen it, you know, I saw all the commentary and but you said that you blame Trump for the lock downs or partly, you blame Trump for the lock downs. i The impression I got was he was king piny against the lock downs. Am I wrong on that? I thought it was done by the states.

David Stockman  15:06

No, but yeah, it’s a great question. But if you go back and look at the calendar, the Tick Tock day by day, week by week, it’s very evident that another reason why Trump is on Fit is that he doesn’t have any principles. He doesn’t have any guiding philosophy, he flies by the seat of his ample britches, and whatever seems to strike is fancy at any moment in time, he goes with me because he’s so damn arrogant, that he doesn’t even begin to understand what he doesn’t know. And basically, when it comes to economics in the world, and governing a $26 trillion economy, he knows very little that maybe he sees basically ignorant. So when when the COVID came along for a few days, he was saying, Well, you know, the flu every year to X number of people, 38,000 50,000 people succumb to the flu one way or another, we’re used to this very, what’s the crisis, six days later, as a result of a lot of pressure that came into the Oval Office led by, you know, his son in law, Jared Kushner, bringing in a couple of scientists who wanted a chance to really exercise some power, I convinced him that it was not only not the flu, but it was something like the Black Plague, and that every all stops had to be pulled out. And that’s on the 16th of March, he gave this speech, you know, two weeks to flatten the curve and turn Dr. Fauci and Dr. Burks and the rest of that crowd of Mal practising doctors loose on the country. And before we know it, the entire economy was on its knees and I got data in the book that lays out how severe this was. Two measures, I think, give you a dramatic a pretty dramatic indication of the hammer that Donald Trump brought down on the US economy and therefore the world economy at the end of the day, on March 16, when he authorised you know, two weeks to flatten the curve and turn the CDC loose on daily economic life. First in the second quarter, when it hit that was ground zero of the lockdown second quarter 2020 GDP in the United States declined at a 34% annualised rate, what does that mean? Well, in the worst recession that we’ve had in the post war period, which is the Great Recession, you know, in 208, the annualised the redonk, fall in GDP was 8% during the worst quarter, okay, the worst quarter was 8%. And in the second quarter of 2020, because of the government ordered lockdown, not some kind of cyclical, you know, tumble of the economy, the government ordered the Trumpler lockdown, GDP declined at a 32% rate just, you know, startling, you know, on precedent. Now, the other measure I use a lot in the book is if you look where it hit the hardest lockdowns, it was obviously in my I call the social interaction venues, restaurants, bars, sports, arenas, gyms, malls and the rest of it. in that arena, that area of the economy in the BLS statistics, Labour department’s statistics is called leisure and hospitality as you know, all those industries are in that grew in April 2020, which is ground zero, the heart of the lockdown hours worked in the leisure and hospitality sectors declined by 56%. Compared to the previous month, half of the employment half of the out and not just headcount answer people but actually hours worked, disappeared. Now how big is a 56% decline in employment in that core sector of the economy? Well, it’s so big that it reduced the actual working level. In other words, the hours work the number of people on the pay pay clock to a level not seen since the spring of 1979. In other words, it rolled back the clock 43 years in terms of the slow and steady and relentless growth that occurred in that sector. Are was wiped out in 30 days and it’s taken years to recover. And we’re still not back to where we were in February 2020. So the lock downs are fading, you know, because as time passes things that seemed pretty bad, right at the moment they were happening suddenly, you know, see maybe not so bad, but the lock downs were dramatic. Yeah, they were, you know, the biggest, you know, Thunderbolts to hit the economy. I think it ever at least in the United States, so, he that was the consequence of Trump. swivelling on a dime from nothing to worry about to the sky is falling. And then And here’s where I really put the pin the tale of the donkey, so to speak. He created this thing called the White House Coronavirus, Task Force. And it met day after day and they had a big press conference. At the end of the day. It was like a reality show from the White House Press Room day after day in which Fauci was up there. Burks was up there, and it Hance Vice President Pence and others. And they just scared the living daylights out of the country, even as all of these orders from the public health departments were being implemented at the urging of the CDC and the White House. So this, this whole lockdown catastrophe, was born, bred and perpetuated from the Oval Office, and I go by the famous aphorism you might not be as an Australian might not be aware of it. But Harry Truman, famous president, you know, at the end of World War after World War Two, and had this had this slogan on his desk that said, the buck stops here. In other words, I am going to take responsibility for what happens? Well, in this case, the buck stops with Trump on the whole disaster of the COVID response to pandemic response to lock downs, the damage that it did to the economy and the costs that were generated in terms of borrowing and deficits and the public debt, you know, all of it, you have to ultimately put on his doorstep. Because if he had stuck to his guns, listen to this, this is unbelievable. If he had stuck to his guns of March 11, when he said, you know, this will be handled in the normal way. We’re used to these, you know, viruses coming along, and we can handle it. If he had stayed with that position. None of this disaster would have happened, right? It wasn’t the virus that caused the economy to plunge into a black hole. It was the lockdowns.

Gene Tunny  23:08

Right, just on the what Trump could have done. I think this is an interesting perspective. And it’s Yeah, I think this is probably this might be the perspective that gets you the most pushback or reaction. I think it’s an interesting proposition. What I’m interested in is whether like, say Trump just said, Okay, we’ll ignore the we think there’s a minor virus. I’m not saying necessarily it is. Let’s say Trump says that. Could he have actually directed the states? Could he have directed? Who was at Andrew Cuomo and Gavin Newsom to open up? Could he have done anything? Did he have the levers to be able to do that? Yes.

David Stockman  23:50

Because they responded, I don’t think they were sitting there in Albany, New York, where Cuomo was where Sacramento and said, hey, you know, this, these reports, we’re getting sound like this is a pretty terrible virus. We’re gonna start systematically closing bars and restaurants and malls. And they were doing that in response to the guidelines, the recommendations, and the pressure from the CDC, which was the federal government, and it was controlled, obviously, by Trump, and the CDC and in turn was responding to the White House Coronavirus Task Force, which was being run by Fauci, which was being run by dance is as delegated by Trump. So it was all coming right out of the oval office there. They wouldn’t. I don’t think and I’ve been in politics since the 1960s in America. So I think maybe my judgement is not totally bad. But I’m absolutely certain that without the imprimatur without the urging without all the hysteria, coming from Fauci in that White House Task Force, these people would have not, they wouldn’t have stuck their neck out and closed down their economy, because every one of them was creating political problems for themselves. It wasn’t you know that this was like some great winning political opportunity. Let’s close down all the gyms and in the state, like they did New Jersey and New York, and let’s shut down the malls and let’s put the restaurants out of business. They’re sitting there saying, Yeah, this would be some real good politics for us and forced that the governors weren’t saying that. They were doing it all ultimately, because they were being pressured. They were being encouraged by the federal government and particularly by the Trump White House.

Gene Tunny  25:51

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  25:57

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Gene Tunny  26:26

Now back to the show. crass now about one of the things that President Trump would claim was that he had the greatest economy ever the economy was in the strongest position ever. And then it was the virus that COVID that came along and, and wrecked everything. But you, you actually question that you don’t think that the US economy was the greatest economy ever pre COVID? What What’s your what is your analysis? Show you there? You haven’t What do you conclude there?

David Stockman  27:00

Yeah, good question. I don’t question it myself. The data proves it. In other words, I just did a lot of research and served up the data that comes out of the statistical mills of the US government. And you can measure it seven different ways. And you get the same answer. But let’s start with real growth. After all, that’s the big, you know, summary metric for economic performance and health. And real growth of the economy was grew at 1.5%. During Trump’s four years, the lowest rate of any presidential term, going back to Harry Truman, again, to 1950, the average over that entire period, no, nine presidents 11 business cycles during that period, recessions and recoveries, we had a couple of wars during that period, we had any number of crises. So in other words, what we’re talking about here is the long term trend performance of the US economy from 1954 to 2016. Right before Trump got in it averaged 3.04% Or double the growth that occurred during the Trump period. So you can on that on that summary, you can’t make that statistic go away. That’s that’s the major the whole ball of wax. And his growth rate was half of the norm. It was a third, basically, of the highest performance with Kennedy Johnson was 5%. It was maybe 40% of what I remember during the Reagan period, when the growth rate was 3.5%. So the idea that he kept Tweety and keeps to this very day complaint, you know, talking about the great Magga economy that he brought the greatest economy ever is totally refuted contradicted by the facts. Now that’s one of them. We can look at job growth. And of course, the answer there is pretty interesting. He’s the only president since Herbert Hoover, in which there was no job growth. You’d never know that from listening to Donald Trump’s boisterous speeches, but the fact is, when he took office in January 2017, there were 145 point 5 million jobs, non farm jobs in the US when he left office in January 2021. There were 142.5 in other words, the job shrunk by 3 million jobs during his term nothing like that ever had before every other president, there’s more jobs than when they start, not because of their virtue. Do necessary or are there policy is because a capitalist economy unless it’s really thwarted, tends to expand and grow and create more jobs. Trump was the exception. Now you can say, Well, again, it was the lock downs, and it was the spring of 1920 20 catastrophe. But even if you take that out of the picture, and you look at Trump and pretend his, his administration handed in February 2020, which is, you know, the month before the COVID, the pandemic hit, he averaged 145,000 new jobs a month, in that period, until the eve of the COVID, or pandemic hit to the economy. Obama had 215,000. So he was a third shorter than Obama. And Obama was considered pretty bad. If you look at overall employment growth, even taking the pandemic period out, the growth rate under Trump was about 1.4%. And it average two and a half percent in the decades and decades before. In finally, I think the, the, you know, the bottom line measure of economic health. And, you know, the this standard of living on Main Street, you know, for the broad middle class is really per capita, GDP, real GDP per capita, if it’s rising, that means the living standards are rising. And if it’s not, you have a problem. But the average again, during the 60 years post war was 2.5%. And during Trump’s period, it was 1%. In other words, the growth rate was, you know, barely two fifths of the normal rate on this basic metric, which is real GDP per capita. So when we can look at other things to the savings rate collapsed during his administration, despite the big tax cut, we haven’t gone into in detail yet. But despite that, investment growth was lower during the Trump period, than in any other administration going back again to 1950. So, you know, when you ask the question, Where’s the proof? Is it in the pudding? The answer is no. There’s there’s no proof whatsoever of his boast. You know, about the greatest economy ever. So what I say in the book, is it wasn’t the greatest economy ever. It was really the greatest con job ever. Right.

Gene Tunny  32:47

Okay. So on the tax cut, you mentioned the tax cut before you mentioned that this didn’t. In your view, it didn’t lead to, you know, a, an economic surge or surge in investment. And can you explain what happened with that tax cut? And where did you where did the money go? You talk about that in the book?

David Stockman  33:10

Sure. Well, if you want to look at the tax cut, you have it was clearly skewed to encouraging reinvestment by business, both corporations and, you know, individual proprietors. That’s why the corporate rate went down from 28 and 21. Why they put in the equivalent 20% deduction for unincorporated businesses. Now in Aw that cost 1.7 trillion over the first 10 years in revenue loss. And that was supposed to then, you know, cause a surge of investment. But if I look at the investment rate, by that I mean, real investment in the business sector, in the five years before the tax cut became effective in 2018. It was actually well higher than the growth rate in the next five years after the tax cut took effect. So if you spend $1.7 trillion that you don’t have, because it was all deficit, finance, they didn’t cut spending to pay for the revenue loss, and you get not no gain at all, but actually a worse trend performance in real terms, inflation adjusted terms, then you have to ask, how could you possibly justify that if you were borrowing money for a huge rate of return? You might argue, well, let’s let’s try that. But if the rate of return is even smaller than what was already built in, it’s dubious now where the money went them because clearly, corporations and individual proprietors paid a lot less in taxes. The answer is into a record surge in stock buybacks, and in corporate m&a deals and in other forms of, you know, leverage recaps and so forth other forms of financial engineering that basically flow money to Wall Street and to the top of the economic ladder, because that’s where all the stock is owned. In other words, 93% of the stock in the United States is probably true in Australia as well, I’m not sure. But 93% is owned by the top 10% of households, and bout 48% is owned by the top 1%. So if you have a huge corporate tax cut 1.7 trillion, that produces no gains in investment and therefore, future growth and job creation, but instead ends up being flushed back into Wall Street, you know, in the form of stock buybacks and other financial engineering, which then flows to the very top of the income scale. You know, you’ve got a double bad, okay, you added to the debt that the whole public is going to be paying service charges interest on forever, and you put the money, you took the money out of the economy and Senate, to the top of to the very wealthy and to the most affluent people next. Oh, sense. Raw.

Gene Tunny  36:27

Okay. I’d like to ask you about a go back to this point you made in the book about the Donald’s reckless fiscal and monetary policies being doubly bad. We’ve talked about the fiscal policies, what were his monetary policy? So monetary policy is handled by the Federal Reserve, isn’t it? What’s what’s, what was Trump’s role there?

David Stockman  36:49

Okay, though, that’s, again, another important topic. As far as I’m concerned, the number one, number two, and number three policy problems in the United States today, and the world is the Fed and the other central banks, they’re out of control, they’re printing presses have been running red hot. For decades and decades, one measure that I think is startling, if you take all the central banks of the world and add their balance sheets together, in 20, in the year 2000, it was 3 trillion. Now, why is it important to take the balance sheets, look, because that’s just a measure of how much money they printed? Okay, you know, when they print money, they buy assets and put it on the balance sheet. That’s a good simple metric to measure how much money they’re printing, it was 3 trillion at the turn of the century is 44 trillion today. All right. So in barely two decades, they have, you know, they’ve just flooded the world financial system, you know, with freshly minted credit, that, you know, ultimately created bubbles and inflation of every time. So the question then is, what about Fed policy? Now, given that backdrop, and my point is yes, in nominally, the Fed is independent, and they make their own decisions. But my quarrel with Trump is twofold. One, he made enormous put enormous public pressure on them, you know, practically week after week, to lower interest rates, and to make money even easier than it already was. So he was making the wrong advice. And secondly, he was doing it at a time in the business cycle, when it was desperately important for monetary policy to be normalised. I never agreed with all the huge money printing that Bernanke undertook in 208209 to 10. But you know, people argued it was an emergency, it was a one time thing, and even Bernanke himself, said in 2011, we’re out of the woods now. And we’re going to normalise the balance sheet, and we’re going to shrink it back to something reasonable, because it was 900 billion when the, you know, great financial crisis started struck the Wall Street meltdown in September 208. And by the peak it was 4.4 trillion. And, you know, everybody agreed that it needed to be normalised and interest rates were being held practically to zero for years and years and years, and I document a lot of this in the book, and that they needed to normalise as well, because when you make money dirt cheap, you’re just inviting speculation on Wall Street and you’re inviting Congress to spend money it doesn’t have because it’s so cheap to borrow down in Washington. So it was time for normalisation the Fed was trying to To do that by slowly raising rates, and by getting out of the Qt business and actually our QE business and actually shrinking its balance sheet they had initiated before Trump got through something called Qt quantitative tightening, and they were slowly trying to shrink the balance sheet back, just like Bernanke had promised they would. And Trump was constantly on their case, not to do either. And as a result of that the Fed just kept interest rates at zero. It kept the balance sheet, massively, bloated, still around $4 trillion. And that paved the way for the huge inflationary mourning after that we had in 2020 2021 and up into the present. So it the timing of the cycles screamed out because we were well into the recovery, the longest recovery in history. It was it screamed out for normalisation get back to something that was sustainable. And Trump was pounding the table, you know, day after day, don’t you dare do it. And even you know, leaking to the press that he was investigating whether he could fire Powell or whether he could, you know, clean house at the Fed and so forth. So therefore, when it comes to something as fundamentally important as sound money, Trump is the worst president and I say this advisedly, that we ever had the very worst, you know, far worse than Jimmy Carter far worse than Lyndon Johnson. Far worse, as far as I’ve studied it, than FDR, he may be even William Jennings Bryan if he had been elected president. So you, that’s another big black mark on the record.

Gene Tunny  41:56

Okay. You don’t blame Richard Nixon for taking us out of Bretton Woods. off the gold standard? Yeah,

David Stockman  42:04

no, I do. Yeah. And I’m I don’t know how I missed that one. But he was he was he was even worse than Richard Nixon and Tim was bad enough. Right.

Gene Tunny  42:14

Okay. Okay. That’s a it’s a Yeah, that’s a lot. I think your discussion of the Fed and fed policies, it’s definitely worth reading. So thanks for that. David. One last thing. In the foreword to the book by you’ve got Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. He says that you’re a crusader against the corrupt merger of state and corporate power in the US. Is that? Is that? Is that how you see yourself? And like, How bad is it in the States? I mean, you’ll see here the talk about the swamp and you hear about the power of lobbyists and all of that, and, and the corruption. I mean, how bad is it, in your view in the US at the moment?

David Stockman  42:59

I think it’s, I think is terrible, because the two worst things we have going are the military industrial complex, this massively bloated defence budget, and the pretentions of Washington that were the hegemony of the world with bases all over, will forever wars all over it interventions everywhere. That is due to the capture of policy by the military industrial complex, that’s corporate power, merging with government power, that’s the first one. The second one is the Fed is a rogue institution that is basically captive of Wall Street. That’s why they keep you know, printing money like they have been doing for decades now. And, you know, that’s exactly what Robert Kennedy is talking about there as well. Total capture of government institutions, in one case, the national security apparatus, in the second case, the basic Central Bank, by private interests, and it leads to some very, very bad outcomes, both domestically and internationally.

Gene Tunny  44:11

Gotcha. These are things that these are things that Trump himself has been campaigning against, hasn’t he or he made he these are things that he uses in his

David Stockman  44:22

arguments. Yes. And no, that is a good point. He’s not campaigning against the Fed. He’s campaigned against the Fed, but he wants an easier fit, okay. I want to send a Wall Street doesn’t like it’s totally different. I want a Fed that’s proven that pursues sound money, but obviously Trump wants a fed that prints even more money than the flood we already have. When it comes to defence is weird. He talks about America First he talks about, you know, NATO should pay its fair share of the tab and all that. But when he got in, he inherited a defence budget of 600 billion which was already way too big bloated, beyond anywhere. Rational need, and he took it up date other than 50 billion. In other words, he never saw a request from the defence department from, from the generals for money that he didn’t like that he wasn’t ready to embrace lock, stock and barrel. Now, why was that? Well, because Trump fancies himself as the greatest negotiator to ever come down the pike. I guess he learned that in the Queen’s as a real estate developer in his early life. And if he hasn’t, you know, an $850 billion defence budget behind him, even if it’s a big waste unnecessary. He thinks he’s accomplished something. But he’s so wrong. Because when you give the defence department and national security apparatus and all those agencies, all that money, they use it to buy political support. That’s right. You know, they use it, basically to perpetuate their missions, their manpower, their budget levels, and so forth. So, you know, Trump isn’t very smart. To tell you the truth, when it comes to how the world works. You know, he may have been a street smart gambler from Queens and got lucky in the real estate business. But he’s never studied. He’s lazy. He’s uninformed. He’s impetuous. He’s fairly dangerous.

Gene Tunny  46:27

Okay. Brought up Wow, man, this is, yeah, it’s been a real. A really great conversation, David, and very, very forthright. And I expect you’ll get a lot of reactions to your book for sure. I suppose one thing I’d like to ask before I leave. So you’re someone that you’ve, you’ve worked, you’ve been in Congress, you’ve been a representative, and you’ve also you’re a director of the Office of Management and Budget, management and budget in the Reagan administration. Correct. What was what was that? Like? I mean, what I mean, that’s, that’s a celebrated administration. I mean, obviously, one of your most distinguished or famous presidents and, you know, lots of really good people in that administration. What was it like on the ground working in it? Well,

David Stockman  47:18

it was a pretty exciting time, at least an effort was made to try to contain the behemoth that it build up on the banks of the Potomac. And it’s interesting to note that when Reagan was sworn in, in January 1981, I became budget director, the first thing we had to do, because we inherited this mess from Jimmy Carter, was to raise the national debt limit above a trillion dollars for the first time, we didn’t have any choice. But where are we today? Go public debt is 34 trillion. And we were struggling with one and we thought, you know, it was a world was going to come to an end. That’s how far things have drifted. Now, of course, the economy is three times bigger, but the public debt is 34 times bigger. So you know, it’s. And then during that period, we had our ups and downs. But at the end of the day, only some minor progress was made in shrinking the size of the federal budget, we cut taxes deeply. We were going to cut spending to match the tax cuts, the spending cuts didn’t happen, because the Republicans really, were not willing to walk the plank in Congress. And because defence spending, got totally out of control and ate up all the savings that we were getting domestically. So essentially, the fiscal calamity that the country is struggling with still today, and the Trump made infinitely worse, originated in the early 1980s, not by purpose, not by intention. But, you know, by the result of the political and policy battles that occurred in the Reagan era, but the one thing that was different is we had Volcker as chairman of the Fed. Volker was the last of the sound money Fed chairman. And he said, You know, I’m not going to finance the federal deficit. You guys want to run up the ready, then you’re going to fund it honestly, in the bond pits, interest rates are going to go up and it’ll be on your watch. And so he did bring inflation to heal, but he was the last of them and in fact, he was so unpopular with the Republican politicians who ran Reagan You know, by the end Reagan wasn’t with it that much of the last two years. They convinced him to not reappoint Volcker and put it Alan Greenspan instead. And, you know, the rest is history. Greenspan was a disaster.

Gene Tunny  49:53

Yes, I mean, he he certainly is his legacy initially After he retired he was seen as the the maestro, but then the financial crisis and there’s been a big reassessment of Greenspan’s legacy since then for sure, absolutely. I might have to cover that on a future show because it’s Yeah, it is a it’s a you know, there’s a lot of history a lot of to go over there. But then Stockman has been terrific. I really enjoyed talking about your new book. I think it’s an important book. It’s, it’s thought provoking. I expect it will be controversial and will should there should be prominent in the the upcoming debate over the rest of this year. So thanks so much for for participating. I’ll put a link in the show notes to your book. Is there anything you’d like to say to wrap up?

David Stockman  50:47

Well, I think we’ve covered a lot of good ground. But I think the answer is, you know, people really need to look beyond the headlines and what the mainstream media is telling you or what the politicians are boasting about, and get a grasp on the facts because we’ve got some pretty difficult economic times to grapple with as we go forward.

Gene Tunny  51:10

So David Stockman thanks so much for your time, really enjoyed it.

David Stockman  51:14

Very good. Thank you.

Gene Tunny  51:18

rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting outlets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

52:05

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

Nature Tech and the Future of Business w/ Handprint Tech founder Simon Schillebeeckx – EP223

In this episode, host Gene Tunny sits down with Simon Schillebeeckx, co-founder of Handprint, a nature tech startup. Handprint aims to help companies profitably and seamlessly integrate planet-positive actions into business activities. Simon shares examples of companies that have gone above and beyond regulatory requirements to positively contribute to the environment. Among other questions, Gene asks Simon about the scalability of Handprint’s approach and the role of consumers in driving profit-maximizing businesses to make positive contributions. 

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored.

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google Podcasts, Apple Podcast and Spotify.

About this episode’s guest, Dr Simon Schillebeeckx

Simon is co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer of Handprint Tech. Published author, former sustainability consultant, TEDx speaker. Strategic Management Professor at Singapore Management University (SMU), specialising in Digital Sustainability. He holds a PhD in Innovation Management from Imperial College London.

What’s covered in EP223

  • [00:01:18] Regenerative economy and business activities.
  • [00:04:33] The concept of Handprint.
  • [00:11:28] Capturing value through sustainability.
  • [00:16:02] A-B testing to determine how consumers respond to sustainability measure.
  • [00:18:30] Linking ads to social impact.
  • [00:23:06] Gamifying sustainability initiatives.
  • [00:26:31] The potential for Handprint.
  • [00:32:45] Plastic pollution and its impact.
  • [00:36:03] Regenerative practices in agriculture.
  • [00:41:28] Trust in carbon crediting.
  • [00:48:49] Large-scale mangrove conservation and afforestation.

Takeaways

  1. According to Simon, companies are increasingly looking to go beyond just reducing their negative environmental impacts and instead create positive impacts through initiatives like planting trees or restoring coral reefs.
  2. Done right, these types of regenerative initiatives have the potential to improve business metrics like sales, click-through rates, and employee engagement. 
  3. Handprint is working to make it easier for companies of all sizes to integrate positive impact actions into their business activities in a profitable way
  4. Handprint offers a marketplace for companies to invest in credible positive impact projects, such as mangrove restoration and carbon sequestration, and provides tools for companies to visualize and capture value from their positive impact initiatives.

Links relevant to the conversation

Handprint Tech website:

https://handprint.tech/

Companies/organisations mentioned by Simon:

https://www.sevencleanseas.com/

https://plasticbank.com/

https://oxcarbon.org/

https://globalmangrove.org/

Transcript: Nature Tech and the Future of Business w/ Handprint Tech founder Simon Schillebeeckx – EP223

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Simon Schillebeeckx  00:03

You could do something in what we define as the regenerative economy by saying, for every 10,000 downloads, so for every 10,000 listeners, I’m going to do something good in the world. And that’s going to be part of how I attract new listeners how I attract new baby customers or attract sponsors. that’s accessible to everyone.

Gene Tunny  00:34

Welcome to the Economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, thanks for tuning into the show. My guest this episode is Simon syllabics. Founder and Chief vision Officer of handprint a nature tech startup headquartered in Singapore. handprint describes its vision as enabling companies to become part of the new regenerative economy by integrating planet positive actions into business activities in a profitable and seamless why? In our conversation Simon provides some good examples of our companies have gone beyond regulatory requirements and have made a positive contribution to the environment. But How scalable is this approach? To what extent do we need consumers to drive profit maximising businesses to make positive contributions? These are questions I’ve been pondering since my conversation with Simon. And I expect this conversation will get you thinking to. I’ll be very interested in your thoughts on this episode. So please send me a note or a voice message. You can find my contact details in the show notes. Before we get into it, I’d like to note that this episode is brought to you by Lumo coffee, which is a new coffee line from my occasional co host Tim Hughes. This grade one organic specialty coffee from the highlands of Peru is jam packed full of healthy antioxidants. Tim has tweaked the roasting process and lab tests to confirm that his beans have tripled the antioxidants of regular coffee. And I can confirm that Lumo coffee tastes really good too. Until the end of March 2020. For economics, explore listeners can get a one time 20% discount on Luma coffee, go to Lumo coffee.com. And at the checkout use the code explored 2019 explored is all in capital letters and followed by to zero. Check out the show notes for details. So again, Lumo Liu, mo, coffee.com. Friday, we’d better get into the episode. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Simon syllabics. Tom and syllabics Welcome to the programme. Hi,

Simon Schillebeeckx  03:19

Gene. Thanks very much for having me. Oh, excellent.

Gene Tunny  03:22

Simon, good to have you. On. You’ve been involved in, you know, a number of issues that, you know, I have great interest in as an economist and one of the things that I’ve come to appreciate, as an economist, over the last, you know, few decades since I started studying economics is just the growing interest in environmental and ecological issues and, and just thinking about, you know, how do we manage the environment? What are the trade offs? What does it mean for economic growth, etc. So I’m really interested in in all of these issues, you founded an organisation, or you’ve co founded an organisation called handprint? Could you tell us, please what is handprint? And what was the path that led you to handprint? Please, Simon? Sure.

Simon Schillebeeckx  04:11

So I think first and foremost, handprint is a scientific concept. That was originally, I think, in 2011, or something proposed by some MIT researchers to quantify and qualify the opposite of a footprint. So footprint is something that most people will be very familiar with. It’s the sum of environmental damage that an organisation or individual does to the wider world, by virtue of its existence, right? That’s kind of a broad definition of footprint. Now handprint as its opposite is the sum of quantified positive of impacts that an individual organisation seeks to create in the world. And so we founded a handprint tech to the full name of the company in in 2019, with a vision to enable companies to create positive impact in the world in a more convenient and accessible way, but also to capture value to capture business value from the creation of this positive impact. And I think, in the past 2030 years of rapidly accelerating interest in sustainability, this ability to capture value from doing good is really where organisations have largely failed. And so this is the gap in the market, I’d say that we are seeking to address.

Gene Tunny  05:59

Gotcha. Okay. So a few questions that come out of that, first, how are companies thinking about this? Because I mean, companies have to, you know, they have to be sustainable financially. And so they, I mean, are they wanting to go beyond they’re wanting to meet certain regulatory requirements? Or are they trying to go beyond the regulatory requirements? How do they think about that? I mean, and also make sure they’re financially sustainable? And then where do you come in? And what sort of like, how do you helped them with that? I’d be interested in, in that Simon, if you.

Simon Schillebeeckx  06:33

So I mean, I would almost think about this in a slightly different way, right? So I don’t see handprint as the opposite of footprint. It’s and when we think about the legacy sustainability approach, which still permeates most companies right now, the focus is really on, how do we reduce our negative impact in the world? Yes. And typically, that comes down to the sustainability paradigm of reduce, reuse, recycle, and the kind of Lansing clatter in sustainability. And so this is the, the framework of under the mindset of most companies, and also the regulatory framework, right? If we see what’s happening in Europe, around the EU taxonomy, if you see GRI reporting or issb, all of these things within the sustainability space, largely the focus is on can we force with norms? Are we going to soft regulation? Can we force companies to better delineate how damaging they are for the world. And I include kind of social in that, although I’m generally more interested in more focused on the environmental, but the focus is really on this kind of delineation of guilt. This is the this is the approach, right. And as a consequence, what comes out of that is a compliance mentality, especially nowadays, where more and more governments are making governments are making these kind of CSR or ESG, regulations mandatory. I will see this in Singapore, we see this in Australia, the European Union, do us all of the publicly listed companies right now almost have a regulatory requirements to report on their sustainability, which really means to report on your negative impact, and then convince us that over time, your negative impact is shrinking. This is the essence of sustainability reporting. So and then if you do this, then we applaud you. And you’re a very good corporate citizen, which is I always like to say the equivalent of applauding your kid for coming home, when when he says, like I only punch the teacher twice today is that that is really the essence of kind of sustainability reporting, how it’s been approached over the last decades. And what comes from that is that the focus because of compliance and because of this, we have to do less bad mentality is that turning that into a strategy for value capture is very difficult. Because it’s not really aligned with a capitalist Grossman’s mentality, it’s always do less, do less, do less rather than do more of something which is much more aligned with kind of capitalism and growth. And so on the one side, that entire ecosystem of sustainability exists and has an incredibly important role to play as we need to move towards a more decarbonized economy. And as we need to reduce waste, and especially reduced poorly treated waste and all of those kinds of things. But on the other hand, on the sides, if companies really want to do something that is going to speak directly to their customers to their employees, enable them to differentiate themselves in the market from their competitors, then doing what The regulator is mandating is not helping. So the entire paradigm of sustainability as it’s been approached over the last 30 years, doesn’t lead to differentiation anymore. Which is also reason why it’s the driver of costs. And what we are advocating is that it is new and emerging paradigm around regeneration, and enabling and asking companies don’t just focus on reducing your negative impact, also really think about creating a positive impact this paradigm is where a lot of differentiation is possible. And so the entire question of how does it align with kind of financial sustainability and so actually resolves itself, because there is evidence that if companies do this, and they do it in the right way, this can actually support the bottom line purely financially, very quickly, because it changes customer behaviour, because it changes employee behaviour, then because it changes, like in the b2b context, the opportunity to engage with new business partners. What

Gene Tunny  11:09

evidence is there, Simon? I mean, have you seen this? I mean, are you able to give any examples of where you’ve had this, they’ve been able to capture this value, or they’ve been able to actually go beyond just this compliance framework, and actually add value or improve things? Sure.

Simon Schillebeeckx  11:28

So the I think the most famous example of the success of this strategy actually comes out of China. And we are not involved in this. But we did write a case study on it. And so very quickly, so what it’s done by Ali pay, and so the one of the Chinese payment ecosystems, and so back in 2016, they started with what is known as and forest, which is a loyalty programme, that gives people points known as energy points, for engaging in specific behaviours, such as taking the bus to work, walking to walking to work, paying your bills with Alipay, rather than getting a paper bill buying vegetarian food, like all of these kinds of nudging behaviours that consumers might want to engage in, they are rewarded with energy points, they can keep those energy points. And if they collect enough of those points, they can convert those points in a virtual tree. And if they keep that tree alive for a long enough period, Alipay will plant an actual tree in various locations in China. Now, this is quite a simple programme. But there are two things that make it really incredible. One is that they’ve, they’ve gamified this point system in such a way that your friends can steal your points, if you don’t claim them early in the morning. Okay, so. And that’s just a really ingenious way of thinking about a loyalty system and adding some kind of social dimension to it. So that makes it so that all of my Chinese students tell me that oh, yeah, I’ve been using this for years. And the first thing I do in the morning, every morning for the last five years is open my payments app and claim my points. And that costs elevate that level of loyalty and kind of stickiness costs Ali pay less than one tree per year, because that is the average number of trees that is planted per user. And, and that means it costs less than $2 to create the most sticky loyalty point system in the world. That also creates an incredible positive reputation for this brand. And has created many followers we have now in the Philippines, you have G cash in Vietnam, there is Momo. They’ve seen this. And they are kind of copying that improving on it. But they’ve seen that this is a way of creating really strong engagement with our users and stickiness. And so that’s kind of retail banking. And we’ve seen similar things coming out of the US you have aspiration, which is a bank card that plants trees, you have tree carts in Germany from exposure, another bank card that plants trees, very simple piece of technology. You’ve got bonsai app in Belgium. And these are really fast growing organisations like aspiration raised at a $320 million valuation before they even had a product, which is insane. So but it demonstrates that, that kind of connection between doing something good and making it really easy, for instance, by integrating it in payments, is really powerful. So that’s, I think, one series of examples coming up similarly from the payments industry, but we have seen and kind of proven in our own work with the different clients that you can actually actually have similar benefits in advertising in E commerce, in peer to peer. remittances. And in, yeah, employee engagement as well. Okay,

Gene Tunny  15:21

so. So you’re talking about e commerce, ad advertising, remittances, and employee engagement? Just want to make sure I understand what you’re talking about here. Are you talking about? Some of your clients have been in those industries?

Simon Schillebeeckx  15:40

And so, so we worked with a large Australian sports brands, and they were interested in figuring out, do people really care about this? And so yes, we plan trees in Australia, with every sale, but isn’t something that actually is going to move the needle for us. And so what we did was together with Google, we did a B testing on their store said, Send 50% of your customers to the original store, send 50% randomly to the store, where we integrate two things. One is a plug in in the checkout that says, if you buy this product, we plant a tree in Australia. And one is a tree counter on the landing page, where it says this is how many trees have been planted so far. So we did this for two weeks, then in Google the analysis via Google optimise of okay, what is the effect actually on sales, and the effect was a 16% increase in revenue, and a 16% increase in cart conversion. Now, of course, increasing revenue is great. But increasing cart conversion in E commerce is a massive business advantage. Because globally, the average cart abandonment rate in E commerce is at 4%. Yeah, which means that all of this kind of product has basically been put in limbo and creates inventory and storage issues. So if you can reduce this, you can reduce overhead costs and inventory costs and management costs substantially. At the same time, you’re reducing this, you’re increasing revenue, because you’re selling more product. So everybody happy. So you solve a critical problem in the E commerce world around product, this that kind of abandoned in the cart and stuck in limbo, while increasing sales. That’s a massive business argument. So even if you don’t care at all about anything that relates to sustainability, or that relates to tree planting, or coral restoration in the Great Barrier Reef, if you don’t care, but you only care about we want to sell more actually doing this might work for you as a business. So that’s the E commerce example. In advertising, what we did is we partnered with T IDs, which is an ad tech company, to enable companies so advertisers to link their ad that they’re putting on phones and on websites, typically on the big publishers like the big newspapers, and so it will have ads in between articles, and that will be put there by teats. So that’s one company that kind of dominated that market globally. And so what they’ve enabled is to link a visual an ad to creative whether it’s a video or a static image, underneath, they put this little message that says, for instance, this ad plans trees, or this ad provides to elderly people. And so we did this with Uber Eats in Japan. And they were supporting access to food for elderly people that aligned with what Uber Eats, of course, stands for it makes sense. And then after that campaign, we did a comparison teams did the work to kind of see what has been the effects of this campaign, on how people perceive the brand. And we saw a 9% increase in brand recognition and positive brand recall, which is substantial effect. We also saw, I think it’s a 32% increase in click through rate on the ad. That’s massive. Yeah, it’s about 50%. Higher than industry average, we also saw higher app completion rates when it was video. So people actually spend time watching the full AD rather than scrolling through it. So these are the target outcomes for any advertising campaign. And if you can enhance those by saying for every 1000 clicks, or for every 10,000 impressions, we’re going to do this good thing. And credibly communicate that within the ad unit itself. You can actually improve your ad performance. So that’s, again, the this is an example of how do we link the business performance to the the sustainability or the impact impact performance in a seamless way. And if you can do this, then the only thing you have to kind of tweak is, what is the financial amount of money that you’re actually linked? Getting to your KPI, whether it’s your number of impressions or your number of sales are so in such a way that there’s a net benefit for the company, because the benefit for the for nature is going to happen anyway when there is a sufficient engagement. So that’s yet another example, from one of our clients with like, how we’ve been able to show that there is real business value in doing this.

Gene Tunny  20:23

Yeah, absolutely. Okay. That’s those are those are really good examples. Just a clarification on that example, for e commerce, you mentioned there was an A and, and B, C, did some A B testing. I’m trying to remember was one of them. You had the counter on the homepage, and then elsewhere, it was it was when they were checking out? Is that what it was? Is there? No,

Simon Schillebeeckx  20:49

the eighth the eighth site was just the original website without any spring integration, the B site was the counter on the landing page and plugin in the checkout. Oh,

Gene Tunny  21:00

yeah. And so that boosted the sales that Yep. Okay. Great. Yeah. Just wanted to make sure I understood that. That’s terrific. And what about one of the things you mentioned was employee engagement, are you finding that these types of initiatives improve the employee engagement, morale, productivity, even,

Simon Schillebeeckx  21:20

we can’t really say much about productivity. This is this requires much longer measurement. But what we’ve seen with companies that have used one of our systems, which is in a voucher redemption system, it’s very simple. Again, if you can get lots of employee engagement software, has some kind of points system behind it. And then after a while, you collect points, and then you can use those points to buy vouchers. And that could be a voucher for your local supermarket or for a sports brand, or it can be an impact voucher. And so we are providing these impact vouchers. And so what we see in many of the partnerships we have with large scale employee engagement software, is that firstly, people actually buy these vouchers. So there is something that some people not everyone, of course, say like, Okay, this is interesting, I find this a better way of spending my points my voucher money than whenever a discount voucher for the local supermarket. But what we also see is that some of our clients come to us directly and say, We want to use these vouchers, let’s say for Christmas. So we’re gonna give our employees this, this thing we even had, this is a bit left field, but it’s a funny thing. We even are in the discussion, I can’t name the company. And this company is known for throwing big parties where the staff there’s to drink more than a little bit. And so they were thinking like it, so we want to do something around impact. They want to do something on coral restoration. But they want to see like, how do we make it part of our corporate culture. And I propose the idea about next time you do a party, why not say we plant we’re going to restore a coral for every bottle of champagne that’s been drunk. And they’re like, this is great. Like, everyone’s gonna love that. And it resonates with what they’re doing. And it makes it fun. It makes it gamified. And then it kind of lets drink for nature, whatever you want to turn that into a story. But it isn’t something that speaks to people and it gets people involved in this. And I think this is really what’s missing. For a lot of the especially large multinationals where you have dedicated teams working on sustainability, building all these strategies, trying to make all of these things happen at a very large scale. But it stays very far away from the lived experience of the vast majority of employees. Right? So in reality, there are very few employees. Even in a large company, let’s say like, like an Amazon or an apple, there’s very few people that are actively involved with a sustainability strategy. And what this impact vouchers, for instance, can accomplish is If a company wants to find out who are the people that actually care about this in the company, because they’ve got 30,000 employees. And not only the people in the sustainability team really care about this, there might be people in marketing and operations in whatever like in any other department, but it’s not easy for the company to really find out, like who are the people that really care. And so by giving them vouchers in this way for a year, like every month, you get a new voucher, and then you’ll see some people will never redeemed the vouchers because they don’t necessarily care. But some people will and will ask questions. And so and what we’ve seen with some of our clients is that the reason why they’re doing this is because it helps them identify potential change makers across departments. And that is where they see a little value. Because then they say the next time we have to roll out a bigger sustainability initiative that might actually face some internal opposition. We know the people that are going to be champions. We can bring them in early on across departments. We can say this is To plan we can engage them, we can educate them. And then we can hopefully in the future, if there is resistance, lower this kind of resistance. So there’s a lot of ways in which these tools can be used creatively, to achieve specific employee goals. And get, that’s what we’re trying to facilitate.

Gene Tunny  25:20

Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  25:25

If you need to crunch the numbers, then get in touch with Adept Economics. We offer you Frank and fearless economic analysis and advice, we can help you with funding submissions, cost benefit analysis, studies, and economic modelling of all sorts. Our head office is in Brisbane, Australia, but we work all over the world. You can get in touch via our website, http://www.adepteconomics.com.au. We’d love to hear from you.

Gene Tunny  25:55

Now back to the show. And Simon, how wide an application? Do you see your this philosophy, the philosophy of handprint what you can do for companies? How wide an application Do you see it as having? Is it just for some companies? Or some sectors? Or do I how wide a scope Do you think this? What what’s the potential here,

Simon Schillebeeckx  26:20

I still believe the potential is, is massive. Because on the one side, there is an genuine need. Right? So we are facing climate change that we just had. I don’t know if you’ve seen the recent report coming out that 2023, what was the hottest year on record, we ended December on 1.78 degrees. That’s bad news, we are experiencing a significant decline in biodiversity and regulator regulators have put a lot of policy in place to start addressing these things. And so companies will have to jump on board. But I think the real potential for this is not interestingly maybe is not with the big oil companies, or the big steel companies or even the big transportation companies, because they have more important things to do. The reality is that if you’re in the business of making things, moving things or mining things, your focus should be on doing so while creating significantly less environmental damage. This is the key thing you need to decarbonize, you need to reduce your water consumption, all of those things, but for the vast majority of people in the developed world, and so think about this, like Singapore, Hong Kong, Europe, US, Australia as well, although Australia has more mining industry, of course. But for the vast majority of people, we don’t work for companies that make things move things are mining things. That’s about 70% of global GDP, is in the service sector is in digital is in NGOs. And the reality is that the classic approach to sustainability has almost nothing to do with those businesses. Because if you don’t have a big footprint, big negative impact, you’re kind of left out of the entire sustainability movement. And I think the potential for handprints and our approach is really winning those companies that want to do something more that want to turn this into a competitive advantage and a differentiating factor. And that realise that if all we’re going to do is reduce our negative impact, it’s basically too easy. And so we’re going to do something else that’s going to create more value for us, but also more value for the planet. And so I think that potential is massive. And with a bit of luck, and a lot of hard work. This could be a multi billion dollar business easily. Hmm,

Gene Tunny  28:59

yeah. Yeah. It sounds like to an extent you’re being led by consumers, are you the consumer preferences are important? And to what extent are there differences between older and younger consumers? Have you? Are you looking at that sort of thing?

Simon Schillebeeckx  29:16

Yeah, we’re looking at this. I mean, we’re looking mainly at research that others are doing about this. We haven’t really done much of our own research specifically on this. But the main trends that we’re seeing is that one, there is an assumption that the younger generation, the Gen Z, and millennials care more about this than the boomers and, and so, and, actually, most of the recent research doesn’t support that. Right. Secondly, there’s an assumption that most of the awareness about these issues is especially prevalent in markets such as Australia and Europe, with the US kind of trailing and In Asia and the rest of the world far behind. And this is also really incorrect. Now, Australia is very advanced. But the best research we’ve seen on this shows that China, and that awareness in China is higher than anywhere else. So it’s a massive thing in China, it’s not yet a massive thing in say, Indonesia or India, or other kinds of Asian countries, Japan is also rapidly rising Europe, you have very strong awareness. And in the US, it’s it’s kind of split according to political affiliation, as we may expect, but in most of these regions, we see a growing consumer awareness across all levels. I think there was a recent was in BCG, I think it was BCG report that kind of found that, on average, based on all the research they did globally, consumers are willing to pay 11 to 12%, more for more kind of sustainable, positive, responsible products. But companies charge like 26 to 35% more for these kinds of products. And that’s really where the big problem is. So if we companies can reduce that, identify the additional margin they’re trying to make, or reduce the cost base for these most more sustainable, sustainably produced products and services, then I think we can really quickly hit that pivot, where suddenly, it makes a lot of sense for many people to adopt these other products. And then we can see very radical shifts, and handprints for many small companies, even if you’re in let’s say, you’re an eco small ecommerce store, you don’t really have the opportunity to say we’re going to fix our supply chains. And we’re going to force our suppliers to only use organic cotton. I mean, you can try but you don’t have the market power. But you can do something simple at the end of the funnel. Namely, we’re going to plant a tree, restore coral, do X remove plastic from the ocean for every transaction, and turn that into a story. And I think the fact that every company no matter how small and what they are doing, can do this makes it potentially very appealing, and hopefully very scalable.

Gene Tunny  32:24

Yeah, you just reminded me when you said remove plastic from the ocean. One of the issues that my producer Joshi suggested I have a cover on the show is the Great Pacific Garbage, plastic garbage patch, or whatever it is. So yeah, just just reminded that is a that is a big issue. And yeah, no,

Simon Schillebeeckx  32:45

and I think we underestimate that issue. Because it’s, I mean, it’s not as much in our face, especially living in Singapore or in Australia. We don’t see plastic pollution that much. But if you go to India, you go to Indonesia, you go to Vietnam, you go to Thailand, it’s everywhere. And it’s a massive issue. And this the Great Pacific vortex, or it’s been described as a giant toilet that doesn’t flush, is is a massive threat to ecosystems, right? So we did, we did, researchers in the UK, in 2021, did a piece of research on plastic pollution, and found microplastics in the blood band, between the baby and a mother and unborn baby. So it is what is the word,

Gene Tunny  33:37

the umbilical cord in

Simon Schillebeeckx  33:39

the umbilical cord. So we have plastics in the umbilical cord. That is the extent of our pollution that our kids right now, even in a country like the UK, where you have very good waste management, but our kids are born already intoxicated with the pollution we bring to this world. And that is shocking. Right? So there are people who argued as a consequence of that study that this is a new species. Because fundamentally, This species has is born with plastic as part of its constitution. And so that is very scary. And so I think this problem which companies like seven clean seas here in Singapore, plastic bank, from from Canada, are addressing at massive scale is really worth solving. And it shouldn’t only be the companies like Coca Cola and Swire group and Pepsi that are largely responsible for much of that plastic pollution. They shouldn’t be the only ones that have to take responsibility. It is a collective responsibility. And so governments need to take they need to put the policy frameworks in place, but everyone can contribute to this by supporting cleanups and this kind of work.

Gene Tunny  34:53

I’ll have to look those companies up. Was it seven clean seas in Singapore and then plastic bank in Canada. You Got a good one? Okay. We’re getting. Yeah, that’s been fascinating. Simon, we’ll get getting getting closer. Just got a couple more questions. Sure. You mentioned this regeneration and enabling No, you’ve got this idea of Is it a regenerative economy? How does that compare with a what people are calling a circular economy? Yeah,

Simon Schillebeeckx  35:20

that’s a good question. So there’s a lot of debates and and on some of our LinkedIn profiles with my CEO, Matias and I, there are many discussions with, let’s say, I’d say regeneration purists that fundamentally don’t believe that you can have regeneration within a growth oriented capitalist system. So we don’t kind of follow that belief system or that narrative. But so the idea of regeneration is really about can we create an economy that is not extractive where we don’t extract natural resources from the planet and pollutes as a consequence, but where the production processes themselves and business models around them, fundamentally lead to a positive net impact on the world. And so it aligns very closely with circular economy. When we think about the application of kind of regenerative practices to manufacturing and agriculture, right, so you have regenerative agriculture, which is kind of the big thing, you have circular economy, which is fundamentally an approach to how do we reconceptualize the supply chains of more or less complex products. But again, that is a very small part of the global economy. So if you want to get everyone involved, if you want to get your local accounting firm informed, or your local podcast host, you cannot do anything about circular economy, because this is not your business. But you could do something in what we define as the regenerative economy by saying, for every 10,000 downloads, so for every 10,000 listeners, I’m going to do something good in the world. And that’s going to be part of how I attract new listeners, how I attract new, maybe customers or attract sponsors, that’s accessible to everyone. And so I think this is really why I prefer the idea of a regenerative economy, because it’s not as exclusive as a circular economy, where only really manufacturing companies can play a big part in. Okay,

Gene Tunny  37:38

that’s a, I like that as a, as a concept is an idea. But how would I go about it? So say, there were, you know, I’m the accounting firm, and I say, I look for every extra, you know, for every extra 10 clients, I’ll I’ll plant a tree or I don’t know, whatever the metric is, or what makes sense or I’ll, or role invest in regeneration of a forest? How would I actually go about that? Are there are there marketplaces or portals that you trust to be able to identify offsets or projects that regeneration projects that I can invest in?

38:20

Yeah, handprint. Okay,

Gene Tunny  38:22

that’s what you do.

Simon Schillebeeckx  38:23

We exactly have such a marketplace for credible, positive impact in the world where you can buy units of impacts across a wide variety of types, whether it’s trees, or ocean, plastic cleanup, like seven clean seas and plastic bank are both accessible through the handprint marketplace. You can plant trees, you can restore corals in the Great Barrier Reef, you can, you can support cleanup projects in Australia, for instance, as well. So we work with all these nonprofits, we bring them into our digital ecosystem. And we facilitate funding flows from companies to them, that is the essence of what we do. And then we create a tools for companies to demonstrate visualise and capture value from doing this. So that is our business. So if you’re looking for a place to do this, then you can comprehend print, there’s others as well, of course, but I’d recommend out print. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  39:17

I don’t want you to give names of any of your competitors have necessarily I’ll look them up and, and check it out just occurred to me that because I know that those sort of things are out there, but I wasn’t sure what the what the names of them of them are, but I’ll definitely check out handprint and put a link in the GBR the Great Barrier Reef, of course, is something that that’s, I mean, I’m in Brisbane and Australia and I mean, the reef is north of us, but it’s not that far north. And you know, I used to live in in Townsville, which is you know, the reef was reasonably accessible. So yep. That’s, that’s terrific. And what validation is there Simon how Do you know that these are worthwhile projects like, because there’s a lot of concern about some of these offsets, and just how robust they are that I think there are a lot of concerns about, you know, a bit of dodgy behaviour there? How do you make sure that you’re looking at, you know, legitimate, legitimate projects?

Simon Schillebeeckx  40:21

Sure. I mean, this is probably the most complex part of our work and handprint is in the onboarding, the sourcing the identification of the right partners. And then the, the system that we’ve developed is one in which we collect a lot of data. And from the all of our impact partners, we have a strong economic alignment model, where we basically allow new projects to come on on the handprint platform after they go through the necessary KYC, which is a pretty lengthy and rigorous process. And then they can launch a small projects, like maybe five to $20,000. If that gets funded, then we’ll see how they report on their progress and what kind of data they provide. And if they do a good job, they can get a bigger, bigger project, and so on. So we built this kind of trust by design. So which is a very different system than the let’s say, the system of what you’re referring to with offsets like the carbon crediting system. So the carbon crediting system is a system where you have trust by centralised authority, right, so you have got a group like like Vera, or gold standards, these are the most famous ones that sets the standards for how you can quantify and earn carbon credits. And then you have a variety of authorities auditors that go and verify that this all has been well done. And this should create more trust, because you have this third party verification, and you have this centralised authorities that are doing this. Now the reality is what we’ve seen is that many of these standards become outdated as more digital technology becomes available. And that’s been the issue with Vera. And then the centralised authorities that do this validation have a very perverse incentive system. And the reason why they have a perverse incentive system is because they’re validating that, yes, this is indeed a real project, but they’re also the ones selling it. Which means in most cases that their interest is in justifying that the that let’s say the carbon sequestration is real, and then maximising the price difference. And this creates this issue where then this was a finding of this UN commission report, we wrote in 2019, that up to 80% of the price that somebody or company pays for a carbon credit doesn’t reach the local communities. So it’s typically between 60 and 80% of the of the money that goes to intermediaries. So the question is, do we want to pay, let’s say, on a $20, or carbon credits, do we really want to pay $16, to the intermediaries to guarantee that it’s trustworthy? And in some cases, you might say, yes, that’s fair. In many cases, I think that’s not fair. Now, the specific reason within the carbon crediting system, in particular, why it’s so important that you have all of these layers of trust, is because companies buy carbon credits to compensate for pollution. It’s basically it’s a pollution rights. They say, like we’re polluting this much, we want to be able to make claims that we’re carbon neutral, or that we’re on track. And as a consequence, we buy these carbon credits as offsets. And I guess my perspective on this and handprints perspective isn’t and this is that this is required because we’ve invented this really complex concept of an organisational carbon footprint. And we are attributing responsibility, based on blame and based on guiltiness. In the environmental space, we make the big guilty parties in charge of solving the problem, rather than saying no, this is a universal problem, and everybody should be kind of contributing to this. And we should put everyone in charge of this. And so yeah, we’re advocating for a real kind of radical mindset shift there where the idea that should be that companies should contribute to, let’s say, nature restoration and not based on how much damage they’re doing to the planet, but on how valuable they are on or on how much profit they make, or how much revenue they make, we need a different distribution mechanism. And if you have a different distribution mechanism, then the whole problem that we currently have on carbon credits, and offsetting just doesn’t matter anymore. Because you still need to invest in nature restoration and doing good things for the world. But it’s not about oh, we are going to calculate our carbon emissions, and then just buy just enough so that we can make claims about this. There is so much money going into this space, that is, I think, not very well spent. Because that money could be much better spent on actually doing something in 2022, we spent $154 billion on sustainability reporting. And there is no evidence that sustainability reporting leads to improve sustainability performance. This is one of the sensible one of the few sensible arguments of many of the ESG haters that they have, like there is there’s just no evidence, right? We see that. I mean, some of the most polluting companies on Earth score very high on ESG metrics, because they’re very good at reporting, but it doesn’t mean they’re actually doing something good for the world. So yeah, we’re revving this quite radical perspective. And we are actually working on a on a thought piece on this called Nature integrity, which we will hopefully published in the next two months, where we’re delineated kind of expanding on this perspective, and, yeah, hopefully, we’ll happy to send it to you when it’s when it’s done. Yeah,

Gene Tunny  46:41

absolutely. Yeah, absolutely. I’ll be keen to have a look at that. Right. Assam has been, there’s been great. I’m learning a lot, particularly about the oil, you know, what, what companies are doing what you know, what the different players are, and who’s doing interesting things. So, so that’s, that’s really good. Right. Before we finish up, I’m keen to learn about global mangrove trust. So yeah, we’ve got quite a lot of mangroves here in, in Australia, in Queensland in particular. So what is the global mangrove trust and what’s been your involvement in it?

Simon Schillebeeckx  47:18

So global mangrove trust was a nonprofit, Ryan and I, so Ryan’s also one of my co founders at handprint, which is a nonprofit, we founded about a year and a half before we set up handprint to initially specifically work with a Myanmar based Norwegian nonprofit that was restoring mangroves in the Bay of Bengal. And over the last five years, it’s evolved into a ecosystem coordinator for mangrove restoration and mangrove conservation worldwide. And so our mission is to put a conservation easements on every mangrove in the world and restore mangroves to their maybe, like 1980s 1970s level of occurrence across across the world, which would be very valuable for carbon sequestration, ecosystem protection, flood protection and fish in the ocean, like mangroves offer so many benefits that they’re one of the most important ecosystems on the planet. And so but we are a small NGO, my involvement now is I’m a non Executive Director. We’ve got a very talented team of people in Europe and and, and Asia, that are kind of leading this work. And our main kind of concrete projects are in Indonesia at the moment. So where we work on large scale mangrove conservation and afforestation. Together with local reforestation partners, and then we’ve developed together with Oxford University, a new carbon accrediting agency that certifies the creation or the issuance of carbon credits, based on state of the art, digital MRV as a monitoring, reporting and validation, using satellite based intelligence and machine learning, and yet, the key vision of ox carbon, which is the certification agency out of Oxford, is to certify high quality projects but have a certification approach that’s much more scalable, and much more cost effective and can be deployed much more rapidly than the existing kind of incumbent certifiers like a Vera and, and gold and gold standard. Because these are fundamentally analogue organised as Asians in a digital age, and so they struggle with the adoption of the what we consider to be the much more scientifically rigorous approaches to measure carbon sequestration and, and state changing forests at scale. And so we are yet we’re working on those kinds of things.

Gene Tunny  50:24

Gotcha. Okay. I’ll put links in the show notes regarding that, and ox carbon and global mangrove trust. And okay, Simon, where can we find more about what you’re doing at handprint?

Simon Schillebeeckx  50:40

So most of the information you’ll find on handprint dot tech, that’s our website, also on my LinkedIn profile, so And on our CEOs LinkedIn profile, Matias was Oh, no. So we are pretty active on LinkedIn. And so that’s where a lot of our conversations are taking place. And otherwise, we have a YouTube channel, and Prindle tech, which is not super active, but there are now and then there’s some videos being posted of talks we do in podcasts that are also appearing on YouTube. And then yeah, I’ve done a few other podcasts as well. So if people want to learn a bit more, they can google my name, if they figure out how to spell it. And just put it into in Spotify or wherever you listen to your podcasts and probably be able to find quite a few more terrific. Okay,

Gene Tunny  51:33

Simon, anything else before we wrap up any, anything you think we missed? Or that that’s an important point that we should go over?

Simon Schillebeeckx  51:41

The final point might be that we are launching a public fundraising campaign on we funder in the US. So if you’re in the US, or you’re have a US bank account, and you want to put a couple of dollars into the next or the first nature tech unicorn, let’s come to the US, then I recommend you go to WWE founder.com/and. Bring the tech and yeah, make a reservation to contribute to the to the project. Okay,

Gene Tunny  52:13

well, good luck with that. Yeah, that’d be terrific. If we had an interview with a founder of a of a unicorn. Before they were a unicorn, that’d be that’d be terrific. Nature Tech, I was wondering what the term was, you know, because we’ve got med tech and fintech and all that. So it’s nature tech. So that’s, that answers that question for me. Yeah. Okay. Simon zorbax. That’s been terrific. I’ve really enjoyed the conversation. Thanks so much for your time.

Simon Schillebeeckx  52:43

Thanks so much for having me gene. It was a pleasure

Gene Tunny  52:47

rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

53:34

Thank you for listening. We hope you enjoyed the episode. For more content like this where to begin your own podcasting journey head on over to obsidian-productions.com

Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

The Limits of Fiscal Policy: Insights from Tony Makin, Alex Robson & others – EP222

This episode on the limits of fiscal policy features highlights from host Gene Tunny’s past conversations with the late Australian economist Professor Tony Makin and former OECD Ambassador Alex Robson. In the discussions, Tony Makin provides a balanced and insightful analysis of Australia’s fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic, critiquing programs like JobKeeper while recognizing some justification. He and Alex Robson discuss the importance of considering the open economy impacts of fiscal stimulus and the long-term burdens of debt. The episode looks to validate Makin’s warnings about the limits of discretionary fiscal policy through subsequent evidence and events. Gene summarizes the JobKeeper evaluation results and what happened in the Australian housing market following the pandemic fiscal stimulus. 

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored.

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google Podcasts, Apple Podcast and Spotify.

What’s covered in EP222

  • Fiscal policy limits and its impacts: introduction (0:03)
  • Economic stimulus measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. (9:36)
  • JobKeeper program design and targeting. (15:44)
  • JobKeeper program’s effectiveness and infrastructure spending challenges. (21:31)
  • Keynesian economics and infrastructure spending. (27:50)
  • Fiscal policy and its impact on the economy. (33:13)
  • Fiscal policy and its unintended consequences. (40:12)
  • The economic impact of public debt with Tony Makin and Alex Robson. (48:31)
  • Fiscal policy and its impact on the economy: wrap up. (53:39)

Takeaways

  1. Fiscal stimulus packages must be carefully designed and limited in size to avoid unintended consequences.
  2. The nature of the workforce is important to consider when implementing fiscal policy, as not all workers can easily transfer to different industries.
  3. The burden of public debt, including interest payments, can have long-term impacts on national income and economic growth.
  4. The effectiveness of fiscal policy in an open economy is influenced by factors such as capital mobility and exchange rates.
  5. Tony Makin was a leading advocate for sensible fiscal policy in Australia, and his contributions to the field are greatly missed.

Episodes the highlights are clipped from

EP119: What Tony Makin taught us about macroeconomics – Economics Explored 
A Fiscal Vaccine for COVID-19 with Tony Makin – new podcast episode | Queensland Economy Watch

Links relevant to the conversation

Fiscal policy papers by Tony Makin:

The Effectiveness of Federal Fiscal Policy: A Review

(PDF) Australia’s Competitiveness: Reversing the Slide 

 A Fiscal Vaccine for COVID-19

Treasury analysis of JobKeeper:

Independent Evaluation of the JobKeeper Payment Final Report | Treasury.gov.au

The employment effects of JobKeeper receipt | Treasury.gov.au  

News regarding unintended consequences of fiscal stimulus:

Building company collapses into liquidation days before Christmas, impacting four Guzman Y Gomez sites

Transcript: The Limits of Fiscal Policy: Insights from Tony Makin, Alex Robson & others – EP222

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Tony Makin  00:03

For instance, baristas who’ve lost their jobs are not necessarily going to be one want to be out there on the road as a construction worker, financial sector employees and not wanting to be perhaps putting paint bets and ceilings. So the the nature of the workforce is important. We can’t just treat the labour force as this homogenous entity where people can transfer across to any sort of industry at whim.

Gene Tunny  00:39

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host, Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, in this episode, I’m going to talk about the limits of fiscal policy. So that’s the use of government spending and taxation to influence the economy. So to try to smooth out the business cycle or to respond to some big shock, like the pandemic or the financial crisis. During the pandemic, in particular, we saw heavy use of fiscal policy by governments around the world. While some stimulus may have been warranted, we’re starting to really see some of the adverse consequences of fiscal stimulus packages in different countries. So you could argue that are a good part of the inflation that we’ve seen in the last couple of years that was due to the, you know, these massive fiscal policy responses that occurred that, that injected all of this additional money into household and business bank accounts, and we ended up with too much money chasing too few goods, which is that that classic explanation of inflation. We’ve also seen high public debts. So big increase in debt worldwide. And then we’ve got the growing burden of interest payments on government budgets. We’ve also seen impacts like what you’d call crowding out, we’ve seen supply side impacts, or constraints really starting to, to bite, particularly in the building industry. So some of these, these unintended consequences, you could say, maybe they should have been foreseen, they’re really starting to have an impact, particularly here in Australia, we’ve seen an impact on the building industry on its costs, and that’s affecting firm viability. So there’s all this extra demand, and there’s only so much supply out there. And, you know, supply can only respond in, it can’t respond automatically or instantly, to to this additional demand. So we’ve seen a big increase in in costs in that sector, and then that’s having all sorts of adverse impacts and you know, builders are closing down and then the people who are getting their houses built, they’re badly impacted, too. So that’s, that’s one of the things we’re seeing here in Australia that I’m going to talk about. Early in the pandemic, Professor Tony Macon of Griffith University in Australia. So Tony was based on the Gold Coast, which is south of Brisbane, where I am so early in the pandemic tiny warned about the adverse consequences of fiscal stimulus in Episode 41 of the podcast. So in one of the earlier episodes of this show, in June 2020, I spoke with Tony about his analysis of Australia’s fiscal response to the pandemic. He prepared that for the Centre for independent studies, which is a think tank in Sydney. So the CIS it’s one that I’m an adjunct Fellow at and I’ve had a lot to do with over the years. I’m gonna play some clips from that conversation I had with Tony, in, you know what turned out to be one of the early Months of the pandemic. So, I mean, things started going, going crazy. And when was it March 2020. So that’s a, it’s just a few months after, after that. We had a big a major fiscal policy response by the end of March in Australia, if I remember. And so we’re starting to see some of the, you know, the less desirable features of that already in in June when I spoke with Tony. Okay, so I’m going to play some clips from that conversation to illustrate some really important points about the limits of fiscal policy. So I’m not saying that activist fiscal policy is everywhere and always bad. I think what I want to say is that you’ve really got to be careful with it, you’ve got to think about, well, what’s going to be the ongoing impact on your interest payments? Could could there be any crowding out? Could there be unintended consequences? Could you actually be destabilising the economy in the future? You may be trying to stabilise it now, but could you actually make things worse than they otherwise would be in in the future? So they’re the types of considerations I think are important with with fiscal policy? Okay, one thing I have to say is that tiny Macon is sadly, no longer with us. He died unexpectedly in November 2021. So, in addition to playing some highlights from my fiscal policy conversation with Tony, I’m also going to play some highlights from my conversation about Tony’s legacy that I had with Alex Robson in Episode 119, from December 2021. So I think they’re worth that’s worth sticking around. For. Alex is a you know, he’s a former collaborator with Tony, he wrote some papers with him. And he’s also Australia’s former ambassador to the OECD in Paris, which is really top job in economics. Yeah, so Alex, Alex is a great person to hear from and he has a lot of excellent observations about about Tony. Okay, let’s play the first clip, which it features Tony’s critique of the massive job keeper, payroll subsidy programme that we have in Australia. I think that much of Tony’s critique has been supported by the facts. So new evidence, or what we’ve learned about how Job keeper rolled out and, you know, the impacts that it had. And also, I think that the review of the programme that my old deputy secretary in the treasury, Nigel Ray, so Nigel did a review of it. Last year, I think that that review that brings out some of these, well, that’s supportive of some of the criticisms that that that Tony made, although, of course, it’s it’s going to be measured. And you know, Nigel, is not someone who’s going to come out and say, Look, this is, you know, this is terrible, you really stuff this up, he’s going to be very measured about it all. There’s also a treasury research paper that’s relevant here. And I’ll have more to say about them after I play the clip. Tony, I’d like to ask about the Australian response, I thought you made some really great observations about the different elements of the response. So there was the job keeper programme, the payroll subsidy programme. And then there were there were cash handouts. And there’s also some bringing forward of infrastructure spending. You made some really insightful remarks regarding the efficacy regarding the merits of the different elements of the Australian Government response. And I think there are lessons that can apply to responses across the world, would you be able to take us through what those those insights and lessons that you made workplace turning?

Tony Makin  09:36

Yeah, well, I made a distinction between fiscal responses that were targeting the aggregate supply side of the economy, and, in the paper, endorse those in principle and in particular, we’re talking about job Keeper which I think is a great innovation. We’ve not seen a scheme like like that, before, it’s not original to Australia, Australia copied what was happening in the UK and New Zealand and one or two other European economies. And the innovation was to see firms as a source of employment. Correct. And to alleviate the pressure on firms and their employees in particular, by providing a direct subsidy to the firm. So it was a supply side initiative, more than a demand side initiative, it was helping aggregate supply, it wasn’t an element that he was sought to increase CRI or it was increasing G, of course, but it was it was it was aimed at the firm’s production. So that was an innovation. And I think there’s a prototype there for future fiscal responses in heaven. Let’s hope we don’t have similar sorts of crises. But it’s it’s a preferred means as opposed to the aggregate demand side response. And a, we’re in the form of two cash transfers or cash handouts, as we saw in response to the GFC trying to in the Keynesian ways stimulate spending, and the purpose of stimulating the spending is to enhance employment. So it’s a roundabout way of trying to enhance employment. I think it has the features of a of a subsidy to retailers in effect, because they’re the ones that they’ve been at most. And in any case, if there is spending and evidence shows that such handouts tend to be largely saved, but if they are spent, they are spent on imports. And they’re funded by borrowing from overseas, which has to be paid in the future. So there were two responses there that were trying to sustain employment one was the direct one to Job keeper. Good marks for that one. And then there was another one on top of that, which was the cash handouts, which was a roundabout way of of sustaining employment when there was another policy in place for that purpose.

Gene Tunny  12:24

Yep. So this job keeper, it was originally costed at one 30 billion, it turns out all it it may only cost 70 billion, there was a forecasting error. But that’s that’s, that’s tangential to our discussion. You did know that while job keeper is more justifiable than other stimulus or emergency measures, there are still concerns with the design of job keeper. Could you take us through some of those please, Tony,

Tony Makin  12:57

our look, the key one is the industry is involved. The questions about casuals being paid more on job teper than they were otherwise earning. So they’re being paid more not to work than to work. I think that’s the key floor with the with the programme. And hopefully that will be fixed when the Treasury completes its review very soon. I guess it’s also questions about eligibility and the the the rule that was there for downturn in, in sales, some of those aspects of it could be possibly fine tuned, but I think it is a useful prototype that can be improved.

Gene Tunny  13:49

Yep. If they if they did it again, I’m sure they would better targeted, and they might target it to the industries that are most affected, such as hospitality, tourism, retail, possibly not professional services, which, you know, appear to be, well not as badly affected as some other sectors. So the the key lesson is that this needs to be better targeted. The problem was from what I can tell this was developed within a week, possibly under a week when at toward the end of March, when they realised that they needed something like this because all of the employer groups were coming to the the government ministers and telling them we need this or we’re going to have to sack millions of people. So I think that’s what drove it. It was done very quickly.

Tony Makin  14:43

Yes. And also the alternative was to put enormous pressure on the on the Employment Benefits Scheme. people queuing up for benefits that would have been a major headache as well. Absolutely.

Gene Tunny  14:56

I think one of the great points you made in the paper was Sir. Regarding the cash handouts, we want to get people out spending, but the public health advice is saying actually stay home, we don’t want you to go out. So I thought that was a really interesting point. And actually, yes, that’s right. So the goal of these emergency measures should be to sustain businesses to keep people in employment during this challenging time. It’s not necessarily, though, and the way to do that is not necessarily to give people money to go out and, and spend on new flat screen TVs, which are imported. So that’s, I think that’s a good point that you’ve made. Okay, so that was Tony on job keeper, which was the payroll subsidy programme we had in Australia. And yep, Tony was, Tony was right about the some of the problems with that programme. Um, overall, I mean, I think that was a very balanced assessment of Tony’s he did recognise that to an extent, it could have been justifiable if it was better targeted. So he wasn’t ruling it out completely. He just had the had some concerns about the design. So I think that was a very, you know, measured, balanced assessment of job keeper from tiny, and another measured and balanced assessment of job caper came from Nigel Ray, who, as I mentioned, was my boss in the treasury. So really, really great public servant, Nigel. And, yep, I think he’s written a great report on job keeper. In the independent evaluation of the job keeper payment final report, he prepared that for the Treasury, I’ll put a link in the show notes. It was broadly supportive of the programme. But Nigel, you know, he had to acknowledge there are some serious issues with it with the design of it. And so what did he conclude? Let’s, let’s go through it. So one of the major conclusions was that a more flexible policy designed during the first phase of job keeper. So I think that was the first six months. A lot of the detail is, it’s hard for me to remember at this stage, but I think that he’s talking about the first six months of the programme. They rolled it out for six months, and then they had another six months of it. A more flexible policy designed during the first phase of job keeper would have enabled an earlier move from prospective to retrospective eligibility thresholds. For example, After three months, this would have allowed better targeting of payments beyond the initial three months and lower the costs of the programme. Okay, so what he’s, what he’s talking about there is that when it was rolled out, basically, you know, accountants would apply for their clients that apply to the ATO, and the accountants would be asking their clients, okay, well, what do you think’s gonna happen to your turnover over the next six months, so when whatever the whatever it was, maybe was quarterly basis, and, you know, you’d think, Oh, well, we’re gonna have this major pandemic. So yeah, we think we’re gonna get smashed. And so there are a lot of, you know, firms that applied for job keeper and got this job keep it like this very generous, turned out wage subsidy, that, you know, they really didn’t end up needing and they didn’t have that turnover reduction that they were forecasting and that they, you know, they’re they advise the ATO that they would, they would have, but there was no way for the ATO to claw that, to claw that back. So, yeah, what Nigel’s getting out there is that you could have designed it in a way that limited the fiscal cost by actually seeing, you know, what happened to the businesses like after a few months and then adjusting the payments after that. So I think that’s what he’s getting out there. It relied a lot on what businesses and their accountants were forecasting would be the impact of the pandemic on their, their turnover. And for many businesses that didn’t actually they didn’t experience the big revenue reductions or the turnover reductions that that they were forecasting, you needed to forecast a particular percentage reduction in in your turnover. I can’t remember off the top my head if I can find it. I’ll put it in the show notes. Righto. So and the second major finding from Nigel regarding job keeper he noted that a tiered payment structure One that is proportionate to previous earnings is better targeted than a flat payment. And this is getting at that concern that Tony had that there were quite a few part time. People, part time employees who may have maybe they were working a couple of days a week in, in a business and they, you know, they were earning an award wage that wasn’t much more than the national minimum wage. Suddenly, because of this payment for a job keeper was that it was more gee, it must have been at sort of trying to approximate a might have been a full time wage for a person roughly on minimum wage or something like that. I can’t remember exactly. But it was much higher, then, you know, some it’ll be more money than someone be would be earning if they’re only working a couple of days a week, part time. And so the idea was, let’s make this simple. Let’s get this out to the people who need it. Let’s not worry too much about trying to make it more targeted, because we don’t have time to do that. And what it meant is that you had and this is the point time he’s making you had many part time people actually earning more with job keeper, then they would have learned otherwise. So yeah, that was a really poorly designed part of job keeper. Also relevant regarding job keeper is a recent Treasury research paper and this came out. So this came out late on Friday, the 22nd of December, okay, so the Friday before Christmas 2023. And Peter Tula, who’s my colleague at the CIS, so Peter is the chief economist at CIS. He tweeted on the Friday that the fact that Treasury releases it late on Friday 22nd December suggests that it embarrasses somebody. So Peter was suggesting that this paper from the Treasury by Natasha Bradshaw, Nathan Deutsche and Lachlan vos, or vas, it’s titled The employment effects of job paper receipt, Peter suggesting it must be embarrassing someone. So what does it what’s embarrassing about it? So the main findings from it. So I’ll put a link in the show notes, you can check out what they’ve done. They’ve done some clever things with a, you know, a data set on businesses that where they can try to infer what’s actually going on, it’s rather clever paper. So check that out. Our findings suggest that at its height in early 2020, job keep it directly preserved between 300,000 to 700,000. Jobs. Right. Okay. So that’s, that’s reasonable. I mean, that’s, you know, if that if it was 700,000. And, you know, that could have pushed the unemployment rate up to near 10% or something, they’ve got an estimate of what then what that would have been, and put that in the show notes. So, you know, that’s a, that’s a big deal. But then if it’s only 300,000, well, okay, is that, you know, how effective was that? So I guess, maybe that’s something you could, you could say, justifies the cost of the programme, which was in the order of $100 billion or so that’s, you know, that’s something you could argue about. So, you know, I’d say somewhere between 300,000 to 700,000 jobs, that compares with around three and a half million employees covered by the scheme at its peak. So I think when the government was rolling it out, initially, it it was suggesting it could save something around, you know, 700,000 jobs or so. If it actually is about 300,000, then well, that makes you wonder, you know, was that good value for money? So maybe that’s something that they’re embarrassed about? I’m not sure. I mean, you could say Oh, well, hundreds of 1000s of jobs, maybe it was worth it. That would be their their argument. What could be the potentially embarrassing bit about the paper is a finding that is in the footnote. It’s a one of the footnotes. And this finding is it’s on page two suggestive evidence. That job keeper receipt made casual workers less likely to be employed over a year later. So they found suggestive evidence that job keeper receipt made casual workers less likely to be employed over a year later. So the effects are far smaller and less statistically significant than the positive effects found during early 2020. But are not implausible they could reflect income effects on labour force participation given job keep a lead to some workers having substantially higher incomes than they otherwise would have. Okay. So this is that point about these, you know, these part time workers getting all of this additional, additional cash so many, many casual workers would only be working part time, they would be, you know, they could be working in a bar or at a cafe, and they’re getting much more money than they would have expected. So they’ve got all this extra money in their bank accounts. And so what they do a year later, is, you know, for many of them, they go, okay, but there’s extra cash, maybe I don’t need to work as many hours at the bar or the cafe, I’m going to spend more time on my studies or, or on a hobby, or I’m going to go overseas. So that’s what they’re, they’re driving out there. So this is really illustrative of how you can have these unintended consequences with fiscal policy. So maybe that’s what’s what’s embarrassing about the paper. So check it out. I think it’s a good paper, it illustrates a neat little econometric technique that I might talk about in a future episode. Okay, so that’s, that’s plenty on job keeper, the payroll subsidy programme and the the challenges or the problems you have when you don’t design a programme properly, of course, they had to do it very quickly. Next time, let’s hope they have a much better design, if there is a next time hope there isn’t a next time. If there is it needs to be better designed. The second clip that I want to play from my chat with Tony is about infrastructure spending. So with job keeping, we were talking about this payroll subsidy and you know, often, often the fiscal stimulus comes in the form of cash payments to households or businesses with the payroll subsidy programme, which then had to be paid to the employees. Some fiscal stimulus comes in the form of infrastructure spending, public works, that sort of thing. And I think Tony’s right there, that can also be problematic, you’ve really got to think about that. And that is the topic of this second clip from tiny, so I will play that now.

Tony Makin  27:50

infrastructure spending can be beneficial. And it has lasting benefits. And what it does not do is deteriorate the government balance sheet, as does the spending on cash handouts and other forms of consumption related government stimulus. What infrastructure does is it creates an asset there on the government’s balance sheet that matches the borrowing, it still has to be funded by borrowing, we started with a budget deficit. So all of his extra spending has to be funded by borrowing. And so there’s an asset there, so the balance sheet won’t deteriorate, to the extent otherwise. But again, it needs to be quality spending, it needs to pass certain tests, the crude Keynesian idea would be again, just to spend on anything. And being holes in the ground, as you mentioned earlier, is a form of crude Keynesianism, which, which could well be sort of portrayed as a form of infrastructure spending if it’s working on the road somewhere. But the point about infrastructure spending is it does have to pass the test where the benefits the present value of the benefits of the project, exceed the costs. And one other point to make about infrastructure spending. And this is one feature of government spending, the Keynes instanced in his work originally right back in the 1930s, but he talked about Public Works, which is effectively what we call infrastructure today. But the difference between then and now when they talk about boosting infrastructure spending is that the nature of the workforce has changed dramatically. I mean, people these days, have certain skills. It’s a highly variegated work workforce, people doing different things. And the assumption in Keynes’s theory was you increase spending on public works, then you have workers easily transferred from jobs that they’ve lost places of employment where they used to be in factories and other areas of unskilled work and they can easily be transferred to, you know, working on the road, so to speak. But these days, that seems far fetched, because for instance, baristas who’ve lost their jobs are not necessarily going to be one want to be out there on the road as a construction worker, financial sector employees, and not wanting to be perhaps putting pink bats in ceilings. So the the nature of the workforce is important. We can’t just treat the labour force as this homogenous entity where people can transfer across to any sort of industry at work. And there’s also I mean, there’s, there’s information costs there. There’s transactions costs, which which make the whole process a little bit trickier than than it sounds in terms of increasing employment.

Gene Tunny  31:08

Yeah, it’s not like it was in the 30s when you could get a whole bunch of unskilled or semi skilled workers, unemployed workers and have them carve out a walking track in the national park or something like that. Exactly. Right. Yeah, yeah. Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  31:37

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Gene Tunny  32:06

Now back to the show. Okay, so another really balanced and insightful clip from tiny. And one of the things Tony was talking about in this clip is Keynesianism, so the ideas associated with John Maynard Keynes, the great British economist, and there’s a particular I guess, a school of thought or there’s a crude Keynesianism often in the way that you know, some, some economists or well, not not many economists, I think most economists recognise the the limits of fiscal policies, the problem with too much discretionary policy with Hey, you got to be careful with it. But there are there still are some we could say crude Keynesians and in in politics, too, there are some people with these these crude Keynesian ideas and they become quite popular during times of crises. And you know, Tony was someone in Australia who was always, always pushing back against that crude Keynesian view and trying to explain what are the what are the potential offsetting impacts, you know, how can interest rates respond, exchange rate, what’s the response to fiscal stimulus and particularly in an open economy like Australia’s Okay, so I’ll play the next highlight in which Tony covers that. So,

Tony Makin  33:42

in the open economy, where you introduce capital flows, exports imports, exchange rates, and emphasising in particular the exchange rate, then you can have a counter model to crude Keynesianism and the best known approach is the so called Mundell Fleming model, which is which features in intermediate macro economics textbooks. And it really just builds upon the IS LM model that Hicks invented by introducing capital flows and exchange rates and net exports. So, listeners may well be familiar with with that model, but simply says that if you increase government spending, you’re going to increase the budget deficit there’s going to be more spending in the economy, but that for a given money supply is going to tend to push up domestic interest rates relative to foreign interest rates and that will induce capital inflow foreigners will be flooding into buy these bonds that are paying a slightly higher interest rate than in their own countries, and that capital inflow will appreciate the currencies. And we’re talking about a floating exchange rate here. And that appreciation will worsen competitiveness because in the short run, price levels are fixed. So a nominal appreciation will translate to a real appreciation. And that loss of competitiveness will crowd out net exports. And this is exactly what we saw. Post GFC. And I’ve written written on this. It’s part of the Treasury external paper. But the exchange rate appreciated massively. As the fiscal stimulus was being rolled out and just look at the national accounts, and you’ll see that the swing variable, there was net exports that went down due due to the loss of competitiveness. That’s, that’s one open economy perspective. And I think that model has been borne out empirically, with reference to Australia’s previous experience, post GFC.

Gene Tunny  36:10

Yeah, so I’ll put a link to that paper of yours, which I think was in agenda. And you also wrote a paper for the minerals Council. One thing which was what one thing that’s really interesting, tiny is that your original minerals Council paper was criticised by the Treasury Secretary, Dr. Martin Parkinson, my old boss at the time. But then a couple of years later, you wrote a paper for the Treasury under the new secretary, John Fraser, essentially, almost refuting what Dr. Pockets and wrote in that rather extraordinary refutation of your minerals Council paper.

Tony Makin  36:58

Yes, yes. It’s quite curious and evidence that economists disagree, even heads of treasury disagree and their economic thinking. So yes, Martin Parkinson issued a press release criticising my minerals Council paper, which was mostly about Australia’s competitiveness. It was not focused, essentially on fiscal policy. That was a part of it. But that’s what caught the criticism from Treasury. And then subsequent to that, when John Fraser Parkinson, successor became Treasury head, he commissioned me to write a paper for Treasury, and that is available from their website, Treasury, external paper where I elaborated on the aspects in the minerals Council paper about fiscal policy and and raise some of these issues about accounting models to to crude Keynesianism. Yeah.

Gene Tunny  37:58

It’s interesting, because I mean, we both worked for Treasury it at different times, though. And I remember the traditional Treasury view is that we have to be careful about fiscal policy because it could end up being destabilising is the open economy impacts that you’ve mentioned, there’s also the problem that you don’t know whether you’re intervening at the right time. The problem that, you know, the stimulus might come on when the economy is recovering anyway. And then it’s, you know, it’s not really necessary. So there are these lags involved. What happened, I think, during the GFC, or the global financial crisis, was that the Treasury people thought, and you know, the, the politicians Kevin Rudd, the Prime Minister, Wayne Swan, the Treasurer, they thought, well, we’ve got this huge shock coming from overseas, we’ve got to do something. So we’re just going to throw as much money at the problem as we can to save the economy. That seems to be the logic and know all of those old concerns about discretionary fiscal policy, what we call discretionary fiscal policy, as distinct from automatic stabilisers such as unemployment benefits, which increase during recessions or the fact that your tax revenues fall during recessions. That all view that discretionary fiscal policy is insensible. That was just thrown out the window. And we’re seeing it again now. So what do you do you have any views on why treasury? The Treasury line on fiscal policy has changed, Tony?

Tony Makin  39:35

Well, I think it’s become crude, Keynesian. And there’s another example that you hadn’t mentioned, and it was the response to the Asian financial crisis, which was also a major, a cataclysmic event at the time in terms of what happened to asset prices and, and we by then had been heavily dependent on the Asia Pacific For our for our trade, not so with the GFC. Because our trade with North North America, the North Atlantic region was minimal compared to Asia. And yet the responses were completely different. In the first instance, there was virtually no fiscal response, there was a strong monetary response, which allowed the exchange rate to stay at a highly depreciated level, which, which soars through that crisis, we didn’t experience a recession that time. And that was what was happening with the global financial crisis, the exchange rate collapse, not as much as it did during the Asian financial crisis. But the government of the day then panicked, reflecting the panic in the US, and by that time, interestingly, the International Monetary Fund had a change course. And it’s thinking it has traditionally been influenced by Chicago economists and had always highlighted in my time working there highlighted problems with activist fiscal policy, including the lags problem that you’ve you’ve mentioned, but there had been this major reversal of thinking at those levels. And the Australian government here, panicked as a consequence of the crisis where we did not where it should not have given that the banking system here didn’t collapse in the same way as it did. In the United States. I fully endorse the the underwriting of the system or the banking system at the time, but the fiscal stimulus was, was completely over the top in my view.

Gene Tunny  41:46

Okay, I really loved that clip of my chat with Tony about fiscal stimulus, I think the comparison he makes or the contrast he makes between how Australia responded to the Asian financial crisis, which as he knows, was a huge deal. Particularly in in Southeast Asia. I mean, it had huge impacts on a major Well, an important economy to the north of us, Indonesia, which, you know, country I’ve had a little bit to do with, particularly with their finance ministry. And it led to effectively to the overthrow of the Suharto regime that they had there. So huge, huge impacts in that region. And yet, Australia responded differently, as Tony was explaining, but by the time of the financial crisis, the thinking in in Treasury, and and also it was a government of a different political persuasion, too. So that may have had something to do with the response. Right. Okay. So we’ve talked about crude Keynesianism. The other thing? Oh, yes, one. One thing I want to mention here is that I’ve been talking about how there are these unintended consequences of fiscal policy that that we can see. And I think that was particularly the case with, with one of the packages that was part of the pandemic response here, which was home builder, which was this home builder grant to two people who were, you know, building or renovating a home. So they had a home builder grant there was about, I think it was two and a half billion dollars. I’ve got that in my notes. And it’s ended up having these, you know, a really adverse impact on the building sector now. So there was a really crisp report from this was on news.com.au. This was on Christmas Eve, Kassar building group collapses into liquidation receivership owing $3.7 million, Guzman and Gomez. So jiwaji sites impacted. And so it’s a nice little as well, you know, it’s not nice, but it’s a good illustration of these unintended consequences. So I’ll just read some, I’ll put it in the show notes. And I’ll just read. I’ll just read some of the main points because I think it does illustrate, you know, what can go wrong if you’re not thinking through what the consequences of your policies can be. So ASIC is the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. So that regulates companies here in Australia. So ASIC insolvencies, statistics show 2213 building companies collapsed during the 20 to 23. financial year, there was a 72% increase on the previous 12 months. The alarming trend has been blamed on a perfect storm of factors including fixed price contracts, escalating costs, supply chain disruptions and tradie shortages. So tradie that’s the what we call tradespersons here in Australia. I’m not sure if you use that term in other countries, if you’re in the state So the UK, for example, the previous Morison government’s home builder grant, which was introduced in June 2020, handed out $2.52 billion to owner occupiers who wanted to build a substantially renovated home it turbocharged the sector, more than 130,000 Customers signed on to the programme with many trainees agreeing to the work under fixed price contracts, it soon became unsustainable as prices began to soar. Okay, so there was this crowding out. And you know, the, the builders or the tradies, they were relying on supply, you know, whether, you know, they may, they may have had to subcontract to other trainees, or they may have been, you know, they may need to purchase the supplies, so plumbing supplies or timber, and they may have been thinking, Oh, well, we’ll just quote based on the prices at the moment. And then suddenly, there’s this additional demand a huge amount of additional demand, and their prices increase for all those input costs. And they’ve signed these contracts to do the work at a particular rate. And these jobs are no longer viable for them. And so now what we’re seeing is we’re seeing these these building companies and collapsing, they’re just going into, into receivership liquidation administration. Yep. So bad results from that. So I’ll put a link in the show notes to that really important piece of information there. This is my final clip from Tony, from my conversation with Tony that had in June 2020. It relates to the ongoing burden of the debt. So those interest payments that, you know, that takes money out of your budget, that’s money that you can’t spend on health and education, for example, and this is something that I think it’s not sufficiently appreciated by decision makers during times of crisis. Okay, so I think, you know, there’s, there’s this need to respond, there’s this, there’s this panic, we think this is, this is the big issue we’re going to deal with. Okay. Sure. Except I accept that. But I think decision makers really have to think more about the long term implications. Okay, because, you know, this, this crisis will pass, presumably, I mean, you don’t want to be, too, you know, obviously, we need to be realistic. But generally, these things will pass, we’ll get to the the other side of it. And I suppose we, we probably should have expected that we would get over this pandemic. I mean, it has been, it has been dreadful, and you know, lots of people have died from it. So I’m not willing to downplay it. But we should have thought that yep, there will be life after the pandemic, and there will be this ongoing burden. Okay. So let’s play the next clip, the final clip from Tony on debt. What do you see as the the problem with this is this buildup of debt isn’t there, and there’s the problem, we have to pay for it, or we have to service that debt and a lot of that money is going to go overseas. You’ve also mentioned the impact on economic growth. What evidence is there regarding the impact on economic performance and growth of a buildup of public debt, which is in Australia is easily going to exceed $1 trillion within a few years?

Tony Makin  48:31

Yes, well, there’s certainly going to be the impact on national income because there’ll be a pure drain from national income of the public interest paid abroad, and we’re talking about 10s of billions there that will just be subtracted from national income to service to service the debt that we will have and that that drain will likely exceed. If it’s a trillion dollar debt, it’s likely to be about eight times the foreign aid budget and a multiple of, of what’s spent on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme and, and a host of other other government programmes. So there’s going to be a direct impact there. But there’s been a number of elaborate econometric studies done. And you’ll find them in the literature. I won’t instance all the authors, but the IMF has done work on this. I’ve actually done had a paper published with a PhD student of mine, looking at Asian economies, and there seems to be a consensus empirically, that a 10% increase in public debt. Other things are saying well, contract, GDP growth, that’s conventionally defined GDP by point two of a percent. So that might not sound much but new compound that through it can be quite significant. After a few years.

Gene Tunny  49:55

What would be the mechanism there tiny would it be the fact that too due to service this debt, you might have to have taxes higher than otherwise. And these taxes, haven’t they lead to an efficiency loss. There’s an efficiency loss with taxation, because you’re discouraging people from working or investing. Could that be one of the mechanisms?

Tony Makin  50:15

Yeah, absolutely. The interest rate is going to play a play a role as well. But the there’s going to be a deadweight losses of the future taxes are going to harm future income. There’s no question about that. But also, there’s other studies have shown that the the the interest rate will will increase by seven basis points, or 1% increase in the public debt to GDP ratio tends to in these studies show that the interest rate tends to go up by about five basis points or up to five basis points. But the mechanism through tax is important, but also, through expectations, if you’ve got this big debt overhang, public debt overhang that’s going to affect expectations. And we can invoke Ricardo there in terms of what what he said for for households having to attend to to save more, but also firms and it’s not something that Ricardo instance, I think it’s important that investment investment is likely to be weak due to the uncertainty that business has about future tax liabilities in the face of an enormous public debt. And then lastly, there’s the impact on future generations that Thomas Jefferson, a founding father of the United States instance, and that the the future generations are going to have to pay for the repayment of the massive debt that’s that’s arisen due to the fiscal response. Yep.

Gene Tunny  52:02

Okay, so that was really interesting from tiny there. Now, some of that was the point he was making about expectations and what you call Ricardian equivalence, I think we’ll have to cover that in a future episode, because there’s a big controversy about that, and to what extent that actually, that actually happens. So, yeah, we’ll we’ll cover that in a future episode. The other stuff, you know, the, I think it’s the other points are really undeniable, really about the the interest burden of the debt and what that does the budget. So I think that’s, that’s well said, from tiny Okay, so that’s, that’s it from my conversation with Tony. What I’d like to do now is I like to play some clips from Alex Robson, who I mentioned before, Alex is out of the amazing Korea. He was an economic adviser to former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has been Australia’s ambassador to the OECD in Paris. And like me, he hails from Townsville in North Queensland. So yeah, I was really glad to catch up with Alex. Well, I wasn’t glad because it was a terrible event. But it was good that I could catch up with Alex after Tony’s passing to discuss Tony’s legacy. So here’s Alex on tinies legacy.

Alex Robson  53:38

I mean, in a closed economy, the assumption is you’ve got no capital inflows or outflows. And so the exchange rate then doesn’t really matter. So what Mondale and Fleming showed in the 60s Was that actually, if you just change that assumption, and then allow for the exchange rate to change, and capital inflows and outflows to occur, and that has been impacted by by imports and exports. And so with policy, say, for fiscal policy, you get this leakage into and out of exports and imports. And so if your sales are up, for example, boosting government spending or reducing taxes that will then have effects on interest rates, exchange rates and exports, so and then an open economy like Australia, that obviously matters quite a bit. And so the critical thing lever there that that changes, or you know, a lot of those predictions of the standard sort of pump priming model, we think about your government goes out and spends more money and has these multiplier effects and so on is this assumption of capital mobility and how it affects the exchange rate. And once you have that, you get a completely different predictions about the effectiveness of these different policy instruments. So and and Tony was always really good at just constantly reminding people of this and and I think it’s the tend to be something which was taught. It’s been taught, obviously, in universities for a long time, but it didn’t seem to quite make it into the, into the policymakers sort of calculus in in in Canberra. And so that was just one of Tony’s big things was just to remind people and of that. And I think, you know, I mean, we saw that during the GFC. With respect to exports, we saw it with respect to the exchange rate, there were big changes going on. And the point is that, you know, Australia is affected by everything else that’s going on in the world. And that’s why places like the OECD and IMF are always talking about coordinating fiscal policy, because, you know, otherwise, you get these leakages across across countries, and you may not get the impacts that you’re trying to achieve.

Gene Tunny  55:50

Okay, and here’s the second clip from Alex. So my conversation with Alex, I

Alex Robson  55:56

mean, thinking about, he had a good mix of very good technical economic skills. I mean, he wasn’t a heavily mathematical person, but he did use those tools when he needed them. And, but also very much an applied focus to policy questions of the day that that mattered. And it wasn’t something where he, you know, there’d be a policy issue. And so I’m now going to think about that. It was, you know, he’d been thinking about these things for a long time. And then when they tended to come up again, and again, he was ready with the arguments that he divided, quite a lot of thought to. So it was wasn’t like he was sort of chasing these different policies. She was, I think he just spent a career thinking about the big macro topics. And they just come back again and again, in Australia. And and it was we were fortunate, I think, to have him as a voice during these tumultuous times in the big macro debates of the 90s. And then during the GFC. And then more recently, as well, yeah, I think, yeah, thinking about his career, it was a good mix of contributions to the academic literature, technical skills, but then also translating that into policy commentary and advice that really stood him apart from a lot of economists today.

Gene Tunny  57:10

Okay, so we’ve come to the end of the episode. I think that the experience of many economies over the last couple of years has provided validation for the criticisms of fiscal policy of activist fiscal policy that came from economists such as the late Tony makin. The takeaway from this episode is that fiscal stimulus packages need to be very carefully designed and limited in their size, if you are going to implement them. There’s a legitimate argument that they’re best avoided altogether, but I would reserve the right to use them in some cases. And even Tony did suggest that there may have been justification was something like Job keeper, but a more targeted in better designed version of it. Okay, so, to wrap up, it’s really pleased me to be able to go back into the archives and to to find these great highlights from my conversation with tiny, tiny making. He was the leading advocate for sensible fiscal policy and Australia for for many years, and he is sorely missed. Thanks for listening. rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

59:20

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

Categories
Podcast episode

The Power of Economics: A Look Back at the Past 20 Episodes – EP221

This episode features highlights from the past 20 episodes. Economics Explored host Gene Tunny plays clips that illustrate key themes like using economics as a scientific framework, considering different perspectives, and remembering the limitations of models. The clips feature discussions on COVID policies, the role of experts, projections of resource depletion, nuclear energy, and the challenges of development economics. Gene hopes listeners find the highlights thought-provoking and looks forward to feedback on improving the podcast in the new year.

Please contact us with any questions, comments and suggestions by emailing us at contact@economicsexplored.com or sending a voice message via https://www.speakpipe.com/economicsexplored.

You can listen to the episode via the embedded player below or via podcasting apps including Google Podcasts, Apple Podcast and Spotify.

What’s covered in EP221

  • Economics and decision-making with a focus on open-mindedness. (0:03)
  • Using experts in decision-making and tolerating dissent. (3:12)
  • COVID-19 modelling and its limitations. (9:34)
  • Economic development, critical thinking, and foreign aid. (12:41)
  • The limitations of economics and the need for interdisciplinary approaches. (19:25)

Takeaways

1. Economics is a powerful framework, but we should remember its limitations and consider insights from other disciplines like psychology.

2. We must be open-minded and tolerant of dissenting views when relying on experts to inform policy decisions.

3. Numerical models and projections should be viewed cautiously as they can exaggerate outcomes, given the complexity of real-world systems.

4. It’s important to think critically about all options when analyzing issues and not come to them with preconceived notions or biases.

5. Effective policymaking requires understanding incentives, weighing tradeoffs, and considering how people may respond differently based on cultural and social factors.

Episodes the highlights are clipped from

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/11/09/is-the-american-dream-a-broken-promise-for-latinos-w-dr-paul-rivera-ep213/

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/10/13/private-vs-public-sector-jobs-consulting-scandals-economics-as-an-imperialist-discipline-w-uqppes-ep209/

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/10/06/growth-or-degrowth-w-oliver-hartwich-nz-initiative-ep208/

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/09/14/gigi-foster-estimates-covid-lockdowns-cost-young-people-116x-any-benefits-ep205/

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/08/24/australias-net-zero-transition-successes-challenges-w-andrew-murdoch-arche-energy-ep202/

https://economicsexplored.com/2023/08/19/the-role-of-experts-in-a-democracy-pandemics-monetary-policy-ai-w-peter-kurti-cis-ep201/

Transcript: The Power of Economics: A Look Back at the Past 20 Episodes – EP221

N.B. This is a lightly edited version of a transcript originally created using the AI application otter.ai. It may not be 100 percent accurate, but should be pretty close. If you’d like to quote from it, please check the quoted segment in the recording.

Gigi Foster  00:03

Even if you think that I’m under balling that low balling that, in fact, even if you think the Prime Minister’s estimate of 40,000 people who would have died is correct. If you look at the costs of lockdowns, they still weren’t worth it. Right. So even if I’m totally wrong as Prime Minister’s right, the lockdown still shouldn’t have been pursued.

Gene Tunny  00:25

Welcome to the economics explored podcast, a frank and fearless exploration of important economic issues. I’m your host, Gene Tunny. I’m a professional economist and former Australian Treasury official. The aim of this show is to help you better understand the big economic issues affecting all our lives. We do this by considering the theory evidence and by hearing a wide range of views. I’m delighted that you can join me for this episode, please check out the show notes for relevant information. Now on to the show. Hello, Happy New Year. It’s the first episode of 2024. In this episode, I’m going to play some highlights from the last 20 episodes. I’ve chosen these highlights. So they’re consistent with the theme of using economics in a scientific way to better understand our world and to make better decisions. Take to simple principles that people respond to incentives and that things must add up and you end up with powerful insights. You start to see constrained optimization problems everywhere. You start with a presumption that people are trying to make the best decisions for themselves based on the incentives and constraints that they face. And you think about the trade offs involved in decision making. It’s not a perfect framework, but it gets you a long way in analysing important issues. And I hope I’ve demonstrated that on this show through various conversations that I’ve had over the last four years. One of the other points I make on the show a fair bit. And this has guided my choice of highlights is the importance of being open minded, which I’d argue is consistent with the scientific approach. One quote I think a lot about us from Richard Feynman who said that the first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. We should be open to a wide variety of views, and be open to vigorous debate on important issues. Okay, please let me know if you have any reactions to the clip, I play into this episode or anything that I say or my guests have said, I’d love to hear what you think. Also, please let me know any ways that I can improve the show in 2024, you’ll find my contact details in the show notes. Right. So let’s get into it. I hope you enjoy these highlights from our last 20 episodes. The first clip I’ve chosen as a highlight is from Episode 201. On the role of experts in a democracy, it’s with Peter Kirti, from the Centre for independent studies. So I’m an adjunct Fellow at CIS. And Peter’s one of my colleagues there and he’s, he’s always a great person to chat with about these big philosophical issues. I really like are Peter reminds us about the importance of being open minded, and tolerating dissenting views. Here’s the clip.

Peter Kurti  03:11

What I’m saying is that if we’re going to use experts, as we are bound to do, we, as citizens of a liberal democracy in Australia, need to be thoughtful about the way in which we engage them in ways in which we hold them to account. And we also need to be stronger about defending freedom of speech in the sense that I think we need to be more willing to tolerate dissent, we need to be able to say, well, this group of scientists over here says, you know, there is a climate catastrophe, for example, whereas this group of scientists over here saying, well, warming, and cooling is just part of a trend. These are parts of trek, these are trends that that take place in on on the earth over a period of years. We need to be able to tolerate dissenting views. I’m not saying we are necessarily able to determine which view is correct. But we are increasingly reluctant I feel to tolerate it today. We’re reluctant to tolerate dissenting views, because we want to have the right answer and we want to know what the right position is the right solution is. We saw that during COVID, of course, debates about the efficacy of vaccine mandates or mask mandates or social distancing, dissent was not tolerated. And I think that if we are going to make an intelligent use of experts, we do need to be willing to tolerate dissent and to live with perhaps the discomfort that comes from having dissenting views.

Gene Tunny  04:41

Yes, yes, exactly. Yeah. It makes it difficult for politicians, though, if, if the experts don’t agree so how, how do we think about that or what’s the relationship mean? You mentioned tolerating dissent. That’s one of your rules or your tips for getting experts like using them effectively. I mean, there’s obviously a role for expertise and people who understand the issues and they provide the advice to the government of the day. How do you think about how those experts should be used? And I mean, what the decision makers do when there is a situation of of that have that dissent to mean? Is it up to them to judge where the weight of evidence is? I mean, because the politicians will say, Well, look, the bulk of evidence is in favour of this hypothesis. It could be climate change, for instance. So yeah, how do you think about that, Peter, how should politicians use experts?

Peter Kurti  05:38

Well, I think it really adjust the way that you have outlined by examining what it is the experts are saying, By assessing the evidence by determining where the bulk of opinion lies, and then using judgement and skill to make a decision. We can apply that sort of framework to any policy area, we might think about. Migration levels of migration, there are people experts who say Australia, we can’t have a big Australia, others say we can have a big Australia, and each side will mount will present evidence to bolster their own arguments. And I’m sure believe quite passionately, the evidence that the cogency of the evidence they present, but somebody then has to make a decision about how we do that, and an elected government has to take a position, we can see it in terms of going to war, or whether we supply arms, for example, to Ukraine, we went into Iraq 20 years ago, very controversially, but we did so on the bait, I mean, at the Howard Government did so on the basis of evidence that was presented. And as we remember, because we know those around at the time, there was a huge amount of dissent in this country about that. At the end of the day, it’s elected representatives who have to make the call and are then held accountable. So I think it’s a it’s a difficult role. And I’ve never been an elected politician. So I’ve never been in the position of having to implement this. I’m simply really someone on the sidelines who’s advocating for a certain, as it were a certain style, of style of living, if you like. But I think it’s bias by weighing and assessing, carefully, evidence that is presented. And I think not allowing fear, I talked about the importance of political courage, not allowing fear of adverse consequences to deter somebody to do to take you from making the right decision, for example, when I mean, how many years ago was it now it’s, it’s must be nearly 30 years, since the Port Arthur tragedy. And the Howard Government decided that they were going to take a stand on on firearms. And there’s a lot of controversy about that at the time. I remember not being in Australia very long. And the view was that people living in the country or people who are really attached to their weaponry wouldn’t be happy with this. And there were arguments on both sides. But I think the weight of public opinion, or rather, I should say this put it this way. I think the Howard Government made it made a decision based on on the evidence and the politics, and also having to judge which way public opinion whether public opinion would accept this. And it was a controversial decision. But I think, given the horror of what happened at Port Arthur, the Australian public did accept it. But there was no telling which was the right what was the right decision or not. I think it’s in a sense, you only know whether you’ve made the right decision with hindsight.

Gene Tunny  08:52

This next clip features the one and only JG foster professor of economics at the University of New South Wales, in Sydney. Tim Hughes and I spoke with Gigi and Episode 205, which was on the costs of COVID policies to young people. I really liked this clip, because it reminds me why we should be careful when we’re relying on the results of numerical models, particularly projections, which show that something is going to get really bad, or, you know, we’re going to end up in a doomsday scenario. So these type of models were heavily relied on during the pandemic. I think that models have their place of course, but we need to remember their limitations and what their underlying assumptions are. Okay, let’s see the clip.

Gigi Foster  09:34

In mid March, you may even recall Neil Ferguson’s ICL modelling came out saying that, you know, 60 million people around the world were going to die or something. And of course, as we know, the COVID death count even now is you know, an order of magnitude less than that. And by the way, Niall Ferguson had been wrong in the past. These epidemiological models that are run in a simulated environment in a computer that necessarily do not include all of the real World variables that are actually relevant to whether people die or suffer from diseases are notoriously exaggerative of the bad outcomes that may occur from the new disease threat. Right that has happened again and again. And again. We’ve had SARS and the swine flu and the you know, all these different fluids that have been modelled and they’ve basically always there has been some coterie of doomsaying epidemiology, people who have said, based on my model, everybody’s gonna die, right? That’s just a common thing it happens, right? And you know why? Because the, you know, the media loves that stuff. It’s, you know, they get ahold of a guy like that, who will be, you know, put on a bleeding headline, that will get eyeballs, right, and they get status, and they get to be the person who really cares about people, because if you care about people, then you know, don’t you care that they’re all gonna die, or I mean, that becomes this whole narrative. And it really crowds out actual science, actual science is based, at best on real data, real data, right? Of course, we have theories about what happens, and we need to use those to structure our understanding of our world. But our world is so incredibly complex and dynamic. And there are endogenous factors that are happening and shocks that we can’t predict. There’s just so much going on, that all models are wrong, as somebody said in my discipline, but some are useful. That’s how you should see a model. So what I did in order to produce that estimate of how many people in a counterfactual non lockdown Australia would have succumbs to COVID is I looked with Sanjeev we looked at the countries in the world that had low restriction levels. So obviously, Sweden is one. Yeah, but it also used another counterfactual, which was about six I think other countries with populations over a million that had low restrictions, mostly in Europe, I think Taiwan might have been in there as well. And we basically took, you know, the average deaths from COVID. This is real data, real data, what they actually experience not something that comes out of a computer generated simulation, but actual data, because we just believe that much more. And then we of course, adjusted for population and then applied it to Australia. And we say, well, this is our best guess right now. Even if you think that I’m under balling that low balling that, in fact, even if you think the Prime Minister’s estimate of 40,000, people who would have died is correct. If you look at the cost of lockdowns, they still weren’t worth it. Right. So even if I’m totally wrong, if my minister is right, the lockdown still shouldn’t have been pursued. Right. But I also think that the Prime Minister is using these simulation models, these SR models or something like this, or you know from the Doherty Institute, or some other kind of, you know, institute that was supporting the narrative and coming out with these doomsday scenarios, to come up with that figure and make himself look like a saviour.

Gene Tunny  12:41

This next clip, which is a short one is from Episode 208 on degrowth, with Oliver Hartwich from the New Zealand initiative. Again, it’s on the theme of the limitations of modelling and making forecasts and projections. It reminds us that we should be sceptical regarding any predictions of impending doom. Let’s hear from Oliver.

Oliver Hartwich  13:02

The other idea of course, in all of us resource depletion seems to be one of these ideas that you simply cannot ever refute, keeps coming back. Going back to amorphous Of course as the starting point, but William Stanley Jevons in the 1860s actually predicted the world would run out of coal. But it’s this general tendency to linear thinking where everything is always continuing on a certain path. I mean, there was a letter writer, I believe, in the London Times in the early 20th century, predicting that London at some stage would be under six feet of horse manure from all the offices in the city, it has this tendency to always think we’re just continuing on the same path and it will never change.

Gene Tunny  13:44

The next clip is from Episode 202. On the net zero transition with Andrew Murdock from RK energy. It reminds us of the importance of thinking through all available options, and not coming to an issue with biases and preconceptions. Let’s play the clip.

Andrew Murdoch  14:01

We certainly should be considering nuclear as one of the options. The engineering me likes to consider things with a sceptical and inquiring mind. So what are all of the options? What are the ones that will work? What are the ones that won’t work? What will they cost? What are the probability that we will achieve the outcomes that we’re trying to achieve? So in the context of assessing any type of technology, we should be looking at? What is it going to cost? What are the consequences? How does it impact our society? How does it impact our landscape? My personal view is that that advanced small modular reactors have a role to play, particularly when we’re getting into the very deep baseload. So the power that has to run 24/7 at very high levels of reliability, that’s going to be very difficult and expensive to do with intermittent renewables and it is possible to do it with independent renewables. It’s possible to deal with intermittent renewables and storage and gas topping, but another arrow in the quiver of decarbonisation tools that we could use is small modular reactors.

Gene Tunny  15:11

This next clip is from Episode 209, which was a recording of a seminar that I spoke out with the University of Queensland students that were students in the politics, philosophy, and economics degree. It illustrates the importance of thinking critically of really thinking through the implications of a course of action. I talked about a notorious incident that occurred in the history of convict transportation to Australia. It was the second fleet and 7090 rather than the Third Fleet, I should note, I mentioned the Third Fleet in the conversation with the UQ students. So I must remember that I’ve linked to an article in the show notes, which explains all the relevant facts, so you can check that out. Around two out of every five convicts in the second fleet died either at sea or shortly after landing. The contract is transporting the convicts were paid based on the number who bought the ships in England, rather than the number who disembarked in Australia. And they had the right to sell whatever provisions were left over from the voyage. The results were tragic. Let’s hear what I had to say.

Joe  16:16

As someone who’s working in the consultancy industry at the moment, what’s your take on the ongoing scandals that have been happening involving PWC and other consulting firms at the moment? Do you think this may be raises questions or concerns about the efficacy of outsourcing public policy?

Gene Tunny  16:36

Oh, look, I think there’s always been concerns about the efficacy of outsourcing. And if you look at the history of contracting out, I forget which fleet it was, but was it the Third Fleet, there was one some of the convicts ships are all put out to tender right by the by HM Treasury, or the Admiralty in the UK. And the Admiralty or the the Treasury they want. They want the most people to get out. They want people to come to Australia, they don’t want people to die on the ship. Right? They actually want people to survive the voyage. But the ship owners, the ones who are who win the contract, they want to fulfil the contract to just to the letter so they can get the payment from the Treasury. But they don’t really care much about the people who were the people survive unless you make that explicit in the contract. So and there was a scandal with one of the convict ships, if I remember correctly, I can look it up and we can put it in the show notes. So yeah, there’s always been issues with government contracting, there’s always been concerns. And so I’m a great believer in outsourcing because I think it does save money. But you’ve got to do it for specific things for specific jobs that you can keep a close eye on and where you trust the people to deliver those jobs. Okay, we’ll take a short break here for a word from our sponsor.

Female speaker  18:03

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Gene Tunny  18:32

Now back to the show. Rado, this is an ultimate clip is from my conversation with Dr. Paul Rivera, from Episode 213 Regarding the American dream. At the beginning of our conversation, we talked briefly about Paul’s work and economic development for USA ID. He told me a story that well illustrates one of the fundamental challenges in providing foreign aid, again, is on the theme of being open minded this clip about thinking critically and not having preconceptions. Here, the preconception came from a standard model of economic development. So this clip is a good reminder to economists that we shouldn’t fall too much in love with our own models. We need to think about whether any psychological or cultural issues may be relevant to the situation that we’re analysing. Okay, let’s listen to the clip.

Paul Rivera  19:25

One of my first consulting jobs that I ever that I ever took was with one of these large international financial institutions, which shall remain nameless, but they had a they had been working in Western Africa somewhere with these with these fishery fisherman communities. Somebody had the idea that, you know, in my last situation, they said they had worked somewhere in East Asia, I think, I believe it was in Thailand, and they had worked with Fisher communities and they had created this project through which they purchased sort of these laws. on boats with motor but with motors that would help the fishermen they said basically, that the problem in that situation was that there was a sort of a low level capital investment. And so they just infused this capital. And that’s what was needed to bring our productivity. And so they said, copy paste, it worked in East Asia, so it’s going to work in West Africa. And they they did absolutely no consultation. Okay, so I came in actually, as an ex post evaluator, about three years after the project had been completed. And so I go in to this community where I know they had worked. And I started asking about the boats and the fishermen and how things are going and people are looking at me with blank stares, like what are you talking? I’m like, I’m like, a few years ago, there was this project and this organisation came, and they’re like, Oh, you have to talk to the chief. And so this particular country still had sort of a chief says chief type chiefdoms society organisation, right? So they take me to the chief, and the chief walks me down to the beach, and I see 10 of these boats upside down, sitting on the beach completely rotted out, and there’s no motors. Okay. And so what they, when I started asking about it, he said, Well, what is what essentially they didn’t understand was that their society is a very highly structured society. And the fishermen, they were considered to be sort of not high loss, high status, folks. And so this organisation had come in, and given a very high status gift, in effect, to a relatively not high status person. And so the natural thing for them to do was to say, I can’t accept this gift. So they gifted all of the boats to the chief, the chief is the chief. So the chief doesn’t fish. He doesn’t, he’s not a fisherman. So the chief basically sold the boats, sold all the motors, he used the income to buy himself a new house in Switzerland. And that was it. Right? So what happened, right, and I can, I can give you five other similar examples. There was there was basically they external parties came in, they gave some sort of analysis of what they perceive to be the problem, they copy pasted a solution. And they put in millions of dollars for it. And at the end of the day, there was no real impact from that, because they failed to secure the buy in from the community, they failed to do the basic consultation that would show you know what it is that was actually needed in those communities. So you know, that’s our, that’s our big thing is really, really engaging in listening. You know, before, you know, when we talk about wasting taxpayer dollars, and that sort of thing, it’s our responsibility to make sure that that’s that that’s going to be used in a proper fashion, you know.

Gene Tunny  22:44

Now it’s time for our final highlight. It’s another clip from my wide ranging talk with UQ students. And it’s another reminder of how regardless of the power of economics as a way of thinking, economists do need to consider insights from other disciplines. The clip begins with a question from the event MC Joe Christiansen, let’s hear it. Russ Roberts, who is the host of econ talk a podcast, he refers to economics as an imperialistic discipline, this idea that, you know, being like, you know, economists often try to apply economics and economic thinking too broadly, to domains where the assumptions may no longer hold, and its utility is questionable, I guess, someone that might come to mind is someone like Gary Becker, you know, bringing the idea of economics and supply and demand to the family and areas that typically it hadn’t been applied to before. And for you personally, what do you think the limits are of economics as a discipline, and other things that economics can’t explain? And we might need other sort of perspectives to understand? I think, certainly, I mean, even economics requires other perspectives. So I mean, I think economics is an incredibly powerful tool. And I mean, you know, it’s a science of the economy and studying the economy there. There’s some core economics, you need to know, where it gets difficult is trying to predict behaviour and, and in in cases where people don’t act fully rationally. And that’s what you need to bring the psychology. Right. So I think any idea that economics is the imperialist discipline, and we’ve got all the answer is I think, that was destroyed by the financial crisis. I mean, maybe up until 2008 People could have believed that, but after 2008, I think there was a recognition that okay, we haven’t really solved the business cycle. We thought we’ve solved the business cycle is this Great Moderation. markets aren’t always rational. You can’t. There are periods of irrationality and economics is not going to help you there. That’s where you need psychology to bring Psychology and that’s why behavioural economics is trying to bring in psychology with economics. So, yeah, I think there are clearly limits to economics and one of the one of the important limits or considerations, is that economics to the extent Well, if it’s, you could say it’s a science or it’s a study a field of study, it can answer questions of fact, or we can make predictions. Or we could argue, analyse what might be the most efficient course of action from the perspective of consumers consumer welfare, or from economic welfare, broadly construed. What we can’t necessarily answer is what’s the best thing to do for society? Because then you’ve got ethical issues, value judgments, how do we okay, if something is affecting the environment, for example, and that affects future generations? How do we, how do we analyse that that those can be difficult issues? Or how do we make choices regarding health policy measures? So it’s not always they’re not always issues where economic considerations are the final determinant, you may need to bring in value judgments? The whole distinction that thing was David Hume between isn’t bored. Yeah,

Joe  26:14

yeah. Yeah. Yeah, good. All.

Gene Tunny  26:19

Right. Oh, those are all the highlights that I have for now. If you’re a regular listener, I’d like to thank you for tuning in over the last 12 months. In 2024, I’m aiming to dive deep into some critical issues, and to really explore all the relevant theory and evidence on them. Next week, I will talk about some recent things that we’ve learned or relearned about the limits of fiscal policy based on our experience during the pandemic. If you’re a new listener, I hope that you continue listening to the show. Whether you’re a new listener, a regular listener, or an occasional listener, please let me know how I can improve the podcast. Over the years I’ve been grateful for all the feedback on what’s been said on the show, about the types of guests you like and the topics that you’d like me to cover. I want this podcast to be as informative and as objective as possible. So please get in touch with any ideas on how I can improve it. My contact details are in the show notes. That’s it for this episode. And all I have to say now is Happy New Year rato thanks for listening to this episode of economics explored. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please get in touch. I’d love to hear from you. You can send me an email via contact at economics explore.com Or a voicemail via SpeakPipe. You can find the link in the show notes. If you’ve enjoyed the show, I’d be grateful if you could tell anyone you think would be interested about it. Word of mouth is one of the main ways that people learn about the show. Finally, if your podcasting app lets you then please write a review and leave a rating. Thanks for listening. I hope you can join me again next week.

28:06

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Credits

Thanks to Obsidian Productions for mixing the episode and to the show’s sponsor, Gene’s consultancy business www.adepteconomics.com.au. Full transcripts are available a few days after the episode is first published at www.economicsexplored.com. Economics Explored is available via Apple Podcasts, Google Podcast, and other podcasting platforms.

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